ALBERT

Description: Comparing the output of general circulation models to observations is essential for assessing and improving the quality of models. While numerical weather prediction models are routinely assessed against a large array of observations, comparing climate models and observations usually requires long time series to build robust statistics. Here, we show that by nudging the large-scale atmospheric circulation in coupled climate models, model output can be compared to local observations for individual days. We illustrate this for three climate models during a period in April 2020 when a warm air intrusion reached the MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) expedition in the central Arctic. Radiosondes, cloud remote sensing and surface flux observations from the MOSAiC expedition serve as reference observations. The climate models AWI-CM1/ECHAM and AWI-CM3/IFS miss the diurnal cycle of surface temperature in spring, likely because both models assume the snowpack on ice to have a uniform temperature. CAM6, a model that uses three layers to represent snow temperature, represents the diurnal cycle more realistically. During a cold and dry period with pervasive thin mixed-phase clouds, AWI-CM1/ECHAM only produces partial cloud cover and overestimates downwelling shortwave radiation at the surface. AWI-CM3/IFS produces a closed cloud cover but misses cloud liquid water. Our results show that nudging the large-scale circulation to the observed state allows a meaningful comparison of climate model output even to short-term observational campaigns. We suggest that nudging can simplify and accelerate the pathway from observations to climate model improvements and substantially extends the range of observations suitable for model evaluation.

Description: Organic matter (OM) degradation in marine sediments is largely controlled by its reactivity and profoundly affects the global carbon cycle. Yet, there is currently no general framework that can constrain OM reactivity on a global scale. In this study, we propose a reactive continuum model based on a lognormal distribution (l-RCM), where OM reactivity is fully described by parameters μ (the mean reactivity of the initial OM bulk mixture) and σ (the variance of OM components around the mean reactivity). We use the l-RCM to inversely determine μ and σ at 123 sites across the global ocean. The results show that the apparent OM reactivity (〈k〉=μ⋅exp⁡(σ2/2)) decreases with decreasing sedimentation rate (ω) and that OM reactivity is more than 3 orders of magnitude higher in shelf than in abyssal regions. Despite the general global trends, higher than expected OM reactivity is observed in certain ocean regions characterized by great water depth or pronounced oxygen minimum zones, such as the eastern–western coastal equatorial Pacific and the Arabian Sea, emphasizing the complex control of the depositional environment (e.g., OM flux, oxygen content in the water column) on benthic OM reactivity. Notably, the l-RCM can also highlight the variability in OM reactivity in these regions. Based on inverse modeling results in our dataset, we establish the significant statistical relationships between 〈k〉 and ω and further map the global OM reactivity distribution. The novelty of this study lies in its unifying view but also in contributing a new framework that allows predicting OM reactivity in data-poor areas based on readily available (or more easily obtainable) information. Such a framework is currently lacking and limits our abilities to constrain OM reactivity in global biogeochemical or Earth system models.

Description: Arctic Ocean simulations in 19 global ocean-sea-ice models participating in the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are evaluated in this paper. Our findings show no significant improvements in Arctic Ocean simulations from the previous Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments phase II (CORE-II) to the current OMIP. Large model biases and inter-model spread exist in the simulated mean state of the halocline and Atlantic Water layer in the OMIP models. Most of the OMIP models suffer from a too thick and deep Atlantic Water layer, a too deep halocline base, and large fresh biases in the halocline. The OMIP models qualitatively agree on the variability and change of the Arctic Ocean freshwater content; sea surface height; stratification; and volume, heat, and freshwater transports through the Arctic Ocean gateways. They can reproduce the changes in the gateway transports observed in the early 21st century, with the exception of the Bering Strait. We also found that the OMIP models employing the NEMO ocean model simulate relatively larger volume and heat transports through the Barents Sea Opening. Overall, the performance of the Arctic Ocean simulations is similar between the CORE2-forced OMIP-1 and JRA55-do-forced OMIP-2 experiments.

Description: 〈jats:p〉Abstract. The subglacial hydrological system affects (i) the motion of ice sheets through sliding, (ii) the location of lakes at the ice margin, and (iii) the ocean circulation by freshwater discharge directly at the grounding line or (iv) via rivers flowing over land. For modeling this hydrology system, a previously developed porous-media concept called the confined–unconfined aquifer system (CUAS) is used. To allow for realistic simulations at the ice sheet scale, we developed CUAS-MPI, an MPI-parallel C/C++ implementation of CUAS (MPI: Message Passing Interface), which employs the Portable, Extensible Toolkit for Scientific Computation (PETSc) infrastructure for handling grids and equation systems. We validate the accuracy of the numerical results by comparing them with a set of analytical solutions to the model equations, which involve two types of boundary conditions. We then investigate the scaling behavior of CUAS-MPI and show that CUAS-MPI scales up to 3840 MPI processes running a realistic Greenland setup on the Lichtenberg HPC system. Our measurements also show that CUAS-MPI reaches a throughput comparable to that of ice sheet simulations, e.g., the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM). Lastly, we discuss opportunities for ice sheet modeling, explore future coupling possibilities of CUAS-MPI with other simulations, and consider throughput bottlenecks and limits of further scaling. 〈/jats:p〉

Description: The Maritime Continent (MC) forms the western boundary of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and relatively small changes in this region can impact the climate locally and remotely. In the mid-Piacenzian warm period of the Pliocene (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 Ma) atmospheric CO2 concentrations were ∼ 400 ppm, and the subaerial Sunda and Sahul shelves made the land–sea distribution of the MC different to today. Topographic changes and elevated levels of CO2, combined with other forcings, are therefore expected to have driven a substantial climate signal in the MC region at this time. By using the results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), we study the mean climatic features of the MC in the mPWP and changes in Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) with respect to the preindustrial. Results show a warmer and wetter mPWP climate of the MC and lower sea surface salinity in the surrounding ocean compared with the preindustrial. Furthermore, we quantify the volume transfer through the ITF; although the ITF may be expected to be hindered by the subaerial shelves, 10 out of 15 models show an increased volume transport compared with the preindustrial. In order to avoid undue influence from closely related models that are present in the PlioMIP2 ensemble, we introduce a new metric, the multi-cluster mean (MCM), which is based on cluster analysis of the individual models. We study the effect that the choice of MCM versus the more traditional analysis of multi-model mean (MMM) and individual models has on the discrepancy between model results and data. We find that models, which reproduce modern MC climate well, are not always good at simulating the mPWP climate anomaly of the MC. By comparing with individual models, the MMM and MCM reproduce the preindustrial sea surface temperature (SST) of the reanalysis better than most individual models and produce less discrepancy with reconstructed sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) than most individual models in the MC. In addition, the clusters reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the MMM, so that the MCM provides us with a new way to explore the results from model ensembles that include similar models.

Description: Understanding the dominant climate forcings in the Pliocene is crucial to assessing the usefulness of the Pliocene as an analogue for our warmer future. Here, we implement a novel yet simple linear factorisation method to assess the relative influence of CO2 forcing in seven models of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) ensemble. Outputs are termed “FCO2” and show the fraction of Pliocene climate change driven by CO2. The accuracy of the FCO2 method is first assessed through comparison to an energy balance analysis previously used to assess drivers of surface air temperature in the PlioMIP1 ensemble. After this assessment, the FCO2 method is applied to achieve an understanding of the drivers of Pliocene sea surface temperature and precipitation for the first time. CO2 is found to be the most important forcing in the ensemble for Pliocene surface air temperature (global mean FCO2=0.56), sea surface temperature (global mean FCO2=0.56), and precipitation (global mean FCO2=0.51). The range between individual models is found to be consistent between these three climate variables, and the models generally show good agreement on the sign of the most important forcing. Our results provide the most spatially complete view of the drivers of Pliocene climate to date and have implications for both data–model comparison and the use of the Pliocene as an analogue for the future. That CO2 is found to be the most important forcing reinforces the Pliocene as a good palaeoclimate analogue, but the significant effect of non-CO2 forcing at a regional scale (e.g. orography and ice sheet forcing at high latitudes) reminds us that it is not perfect, and these additional influencing factors must not be overlooked. This comparison is further complicated when considering the Pliocene as a state in quasi-equilibrium with CO2 forcing compared to the transient warming being experienced at present.

Description: Information about sea ice surface topography and related deformation is crucial for studies of sea ice mass balance, sea ice modeling, and ship navigation through the ice pack. The Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2), part of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Observing System, has been on orbit for over 4 years, sensing the sea ice surface topography with six laser beams capable of capturing individual features such as pressure ridges. To assess the capabilities and uncertainties of ICESat-2 products, coincident high-resolution measurements of sea ice surface topography are required. During the yearlong Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition in the Arctic Ocean, we successfully carried out a coincident underflight of ICESat-2 with a helicopter-based airborne laser scanner (ALS), achieving an overlap of more than 100 km. Despite the comparably short data set, the high-resolution centimeter-scale measurements of the ALS can be used to evaluate the performance of ICESat-2 products. Our goal is to investigate how the sea ice surface roughness and topography are represented in different ICESat-2 products as well as how sensitive ICESat-2 products are to leads and small cracks in the ice cover. Here, we compare the ALS measurements with ICESat-2's primary sea ice height product, ATL07, and the high-fidelity surface elevation product developed by the University of Maryland (UMD). By applying a ridge-detection algorithm, we find that 16 % (4 %) of the number of obstacles in the ALS data set are found using the strong (weak) center beam in ATL07. Significantly higher detection rates of 42 % (30 %) are achieved when using the UMD product. While only one lead is indicated in ATL07 for the underflight, the ALS reveals many small, narrow, and only partly open cracks that appear to be overlooked by ATL07.

Description: Rapid Arctic warming accelerates permafrost thaw, causing an additional release of terrestrial organic matter (OM) into rivers and, ultimately, after transport via deltas and estuaries, to the Arctic Ocean nearshore. The majority of our understanding of nearshore OM dynamics and fate has been developed from freshwater rivers despite the likely impact of highly dynamic estuarine and deltaic environments on the transformation, storage, and age of OM delivered to coastal waters. Here, we studied particulate organic carbon (POC) dynamics in the Lena River delta and compared them with POC dynamics in the Lena River main stem along a ∼ 1600 km long transect from Yakutsk, downstream to the delta. We measured POC, total suspended matter (TSM), and carbon isotopes (δ13C and Δ14C) in POC to compare riverine and deltaic OM composition and changes in OM source and fate during transport offshore. We found that TSM and POC concentrations decreased by 70 % during transit from the main stem to the delta and Arctic Ocean. We found deltaic POC to be strongly depleted in 13C relative to fluvial POC. Dual-carbon (Δ14C and δ13C) isotope mixing model analyses indicated a significant phytoplankton contribution to deltaic POC (∼ 68 ± 6 %) and suggested an additional input of permafrost-derived OM into deltaic waters (∼ 18 ± 4 % of deltaic POC originates from Pleistocene deposits vs. ∼ 5 ± 4 % in the river main stem). Despite the lower concentration of POC in the delta than in the main stem (0.41 ± 0.10 vs. 0.79 ± 0.30 mg L−1, respectively), the amount of POC derived from Yedoma deposits in deltaic waters was almost twice as large as the amount of POC of Yedoma origin in the main stem (0.07 ± 0.02 and 0.04 ± 0.02 mg L−1, respectively). We assert that estuarine and deltaic processes require consideration in order to correctly understand OM dynamics throughout Arctic nearshore coastal zones and how these processes may evolve under future climate-driven change.

Description: This study is based on multiproxy data gained from a 14C-dated 6.5 m long sediment core and a 210Pb-dated 23 cm short core retrieved from Lake Rauchuagytgyn in Chukotka, Arctic Russia. Our main objectives are to reconstruct the environmental history and ecological development of the lake during the last 29 kyr and to investigate the main drivers behind bioproduction shifts. The methods comprise age-modeling, accumulation rate estimation, and light microscope diatom species analysis of 74 samples, as well as organic carbon, nitrogen, and mercury analysis. Diatoms have appeared in the lake since 21.8 ka cal BP and are dominated by planktonic Lindavia ocellata and L. cyclopuncta. Around the Pleistocene–Holocene boundary, other taxa including planktonic Aulacoseira, benthic fragilarioid (Staurosira), and achnanthoid species increase in their abundance. There is strong correlation between variations of diatom valve accumulation rates (DARs; mean 176.1×109 valves m2 a1), organic carbon accumulation rates (OCARs; mean 4.6 g m−2 a−1), and mercury accumulation rates (HgARs; mean 63.4 µg m−2 a−1). We discuss the environmental forcings behind shifts in diatom species and find moderate responses of key taxa to the cold glacial period, postglacial warming, the Younger Dryas, and the Holocene Thermal Maximum. The short-core data likely suggest recent change of the diatom community at the beginning of the 20th century related to human-induced warming but only little evidence of atmospheric deposition of contaminants. Significant correlation between DAR and OCAR in the Holocene interglacial indicates within-lake bioproduction represents bulk organic carbon deposited in the lake sediment. During both glacial and interglacial episodes HgAR is mainly bound to organic matter in the lake associated with biochemical substrate conditions. There were only ambiguous signs of increased HgAR during the industrialization period. We conclude that if increased short-term emissions are neglected, pristine Arctic lake systems can potentially serve as long-term CO2 and Hg sinks during warm climate episodes driven by insolation-enhanced within-lake primary productivity. Maintaining intact natural lake ecosystems should therefore be of interest to future environmental policy.

Description: Climate warming and related drivers of soil thermal change in the Arctic are expected to modify the distribution and dynamics of carbon contained in perennially frozen grounds. Thawing of permafrost in the Mackenzie River watershed of northwestern Canada, coupled with increases in river discharge and coastal erosion, triggers the release of terrestrial organic matter (OMt) from the largest Arctic drainage basin in North America into the Arctic Ocean. While this process is ongoing and its rate is accelerating, the fate of the newly mobilized organic matter as it transits from the watershed through the delta and into the marine system remains poorly understood. In the framework of the European Horizon 2020 Nunataryuk programme, and as part of the Work Package 4 (WP4) Coastal Waters theme, four field expeditions were conducted in the Mackenzie Delta region and southern Beaufort Sea from April to September 2019. The temporal sampling design allowed the survey of ambient conditions in the coastal waters under full ice cover prior to the spring freshet, during ice breakup in summer, and anterior to the freeze-up period in fall. To capture the fluvial-marine transition zone, and with distinct challenges related to shallow waters and changing seasonal and meteorological conditions, the field sampling was conducted in close partnership with members of the communities of Aklavik, Inuvik and Tuktoyaktuk, using several platforms, namely helicopters, snowmobiles, and small boats. Water column profiles of physical and optical variables were measured in situ, while surface water, groundwater, and sediment samples were collected and preserved for the determination of the composition and sources of OMt, including particulate and dissolved organic carbon (POC and DOC), and colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM), as well as a suite of physical, chemical, and biological variables. Here we present an overview of the standardized datasets, including hydrographic profiles, remote sensing reflectance, temperature and salinity, particle absorption, nutrients, dissolved organic carbon, particulate organic carbon, particulate organic nitrogen, CDOM absorption, fluorescent dissolved organic matter intensity, suspended particulate matter, total particulate carbon, total particulate nitrogen, stable water isotopes, radon in water, bacterial abundance, and a string of phytoplankton pigments including total chlorophyll. Datasets and related metadata can be found in (10.1594/PANGAEA.937587).