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  • Arctic  (5)
  • Internal waves  (5)
  • Turbulence  (4)
  • American Meteorological Society  (8)
  • American Geophysical Union  (3)
  • Annual Reviews
  • Oxford University Press
  • 2020-2023  (11)
  • 1940-1944
  • 2021  (11)
  • 1
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    Mesoscale eddy dissipation by a "zoo" of submesoscale processes at a western boundary (2021)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Evans, D. G., Frajka-Williams, E., Garabato, A. C. N., Polzin, K. L., & Forryan, A. Mesoscale eddy dissipation by a "zoo" of submesoscale processes at a western boundary. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 125(11), (2020): e2020JC016246, doi:10.1029/2020JC016246.
    Description: Mesoscale eddies are ubiquitous dynamical features that tend to propagate westward and disappear along ocean western boundaries. Using a multiscale observational study, we assess the extent to which eddies dissipate via a direct cascade of energy at a western boundary. We analyze data from a ship‐based microstructure and velocity survey, and an 18‐month mooring deployment, to document the dissipation of energy in anticyclonic and cyclonic eddies impinging on the topographic slope east of the Bahamas, in the North Atlantic Ocean. These observations reveal high levels of turbulence where the steep and rough topographic slope modified the intensified northward flow associated with, in particular, anticyclonic eddies. Elevated dissipation was observed both near‐bottom and at mid depths (200–800 m). Near‐bottom turbulence occurred in the lee of a protruding escarpment, where elevated Froude numbers suggest hydraulic control. Energy was also radiated in the form of upward‐propagating internal waves. Elevated dissipation at mid depths occurred in regions of strong vertical shear, where the topographic slope modified the vertical structure of the northward eddy flow. Here, low Richardson numbers and a local change in the isopycnal gradient of potential vorticity (PV) suggest that the elevated dissipation was associated with horizontal shear instability. Elevated mid‐depth dissipation was also induced by topographic steering of the flow. This led to large anticyclonic vorticity and negative PV adjacent to the topographic slope, suggesting that centrifugal instability underpinned the local enhancement in dissipation. Our results provide a mechanistic benchmark for the realistic representation of eddy dissipation in ocean models.
    Description: The MeRMEED project, DGE, EFW, ACNG and AF were funded under Natural Environment Research Council standard grant NE/N001745/2. ACNG further acknowledges the support of the Royal Society and the Wolfson Foundation.
    Keywords: Direct energy cascade ; Eddy-topography interactions ; Energy ; Instability ; Mesoscale eddies ; Turbulence
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 2
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    Limited presence of permafrost dissolved organic matter in the Kolyma River, Siberia revealed by ramped oxidation (2021)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 126(7), (2021): e2020JG005977, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JG005977.
    Description: Increasing Arctic temperatures are thawing permafrost soils and liberating ancient organic matter, but the fate of this material remains unclear. Thawing of permafrost releases dissolved organic matter (DOM) into fluvial networks. Unfortunately, tracking this material in Arctic rivers such as the Kolyma River in Siberia has proven challenging due to its high biodegradability. Here, we evaluate late summer abruptly thawed yedoma permafrost dissolved organic carbon (DOC) inputs from Duvannyi Yar. We implemented ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry alongside ramped pyrolysis oxidation (RPO) and isotopic analyses. These approaches offer insight into DOM chemical composition and DOC radiocarbon values of thermochemical components for a permafrost thaw stream, the Kolyma River, and their biodegraded counterparts (n = 4). The highly aliphatic molecular formula found in undegraded permafrost DOM contrasted with the comparatively aliphatic-poor formula of Kolyma River DOM, represented by an 8.9% and 2.6% relative abundance, respectively, suggesting minimal inputs of undegraded permafrost DOM in the river. RPO radiocarbon fractions of Kolyma River DOC exhibited no “hidden” aged component indicative of permafrost influence. Thermostability analyses suggested that there was limited biodegraded permafrost DOC in the Kolyma River, in part determined by the formation of high-activation energy (thermally stable) biodegradation components in permafrost DOM that were lacking in the Kolyma River. A mixing model based on thermostability and radiocarbon allowed us to estimate a maximum input of between 0.8% and 7.7% of this Pleistocene-aged permafrost to the Kolyma River DOC. Ultimately, our findings highlight that export of modern terrestrial DOC currently overwhelms any permafrost DOC inputs in the Kolyma River.
    Description: This work was funded by NSF grants ANT-1203885 and PLR-1500169 to R.G.M.S. The work was also supported by the National Science Foundation Division of Chemistry through DMR-1644779 and the State of Florida.
    Description: 2022-01-09
    Keywords: Permafrost ; Dissolved organic carbon ; Dissolved organic matter ; FT-ICR MS ; Ramped pyrolysis oxidation ; Arctic
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  • 3
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    Antarctic circumpolar current impacts on internal wave life cycles (2021)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 48(8), (2021): e2020GL089471, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089471.
    Description: Major gaps exist in our understanding of the pathways between internal wave generation and breaking in the Southern Ocean, with important implications for the distribution of internal wave-driven mixing, the sensitivity of ocean mixing rates and patterns to changes in the ocean environment, and the necessary ingredients of mixing parameterizations. Here we assess the dominant processes in internal wave evolution by characterizing wave and mesoscale flow scales based on full-depth in situ measurements in a Southern Ocean mixing hot spot and a ray tracing calculation. The exercise highlights the importance of Antarctic Circumpolar Current jets as a dominant influence on internal wave life cycles through advection, the modification of wave characteristics via wave-mean flow interactions, and the set-up of critical layers for both upward- and downward-propagating waves. Our findings suggest that it is important to represent mesoscale flow impacts in parameterizations of internal wave-driven mixing in the Southern Ocean.
    Description: The SOFine project was funded by the UK Natural Environmental Research Council (NERC) (grant NE/G001510/1). S. Waterman is currently supported by the National Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Discovery Grant Program (NSERC-2020-05799). A. Meyer acknowledges current support from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023) and previous support from the joint CSIRO-University of Tasmania Quantitative Marine Science (QMS) program. A. N. Garabato acknowledges the support of the Royal Society and the Wolfson Foundation.
    Keywords: Internal waves ; Internal wave-driven turbulent mixing ; Internal wave-mesoscale flow interactions ; Southern Ocean
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  • 4
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    Microstructure mixing observations and finescale parameterizations in the Beaufort Sea (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 51(1), (2021): 19-35, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-19-0233.1.
    Description: In the Beaufort Sea in September of 2015, concurrent mooring and microstructure observations were used to assess dissipation rates in the vicinity of 72°35′N, 145°1′W. Microstructure measurements from a free-falling profiler survey showed very low [O(10−10) W kg−1] turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rates ε. A finescale parameterization based on both shear and strain measurements was applied to estimate the ratio of shear to strain Rω and ε at the mooring location, and a strain-based parameterization was applied to the microstructure survey (which occurred approximately 100 km away from the mooring site) for direct comparison with microstructure results. The finescale parameterization worked well, with discrepancies ranging from a factor of 1–2.5 depending on depth. The largest discrepancies occurred at depths with high shear. Mean Rω was 17, and Rω showed high variability with values ranging from 3 to 50 over 8 days. Observed ε was slightly elevated (factor of 2–3 compared with a later survey of 11 profiles taken over 3 h) from 25 to 125 m following a wind event which occurred at the beginning of the mooring deployment, reaching a maximum of ε= 6 × 10−10 W kg−1 at 30-m depth. Velocity signals associated with near-inertial waves (NIWs) were observed at depths greater than 200 m, where the Atlantic Water mass represents a reservoir of oceanic heat. However, no evidence of elevated ε or heat fluxes was observed in association with NIWs at these depths in either the microstructure survey or the finescale parameterization estimates.
    Description: This work was supported by NSF Grants PLR 14-56705 and PLR-1303791 and by NSF Graduate Research Fellowship Grant DGE-1650112.
    Keywords: Ocean ; Arctic ; Internal waves ; Turbulence ; Diapycnal mixing
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  • 5
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    On the predictability of sea surface height around Palau (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 50(11), (2020): 3267–3294, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-19-0310.1.
    Description: As part of the Flow Encountering Abrupt Topography (FLEAT) program, an array of pressure-sensor equipped inverted echo sounders (PIESs) was deployed north of Palau where the westward-flowing North Equatorial Current encounters the southern end of the Kyushu–Palau Ridge in the tropical North Pacific. Capitalizing on concurrent observations from satellite altimetry, FLEAT Spray gliders, and shipboard hydrography, the PIESs’ 10-month duration hourly bottom pressure p and round-trip acoustic travel time τ records are used to examine the magnitude and predictability of sea level and pycnocline depth changes and to track signal propagations through the array. Sea level and pycnocline depth are found to vary in response to a range of ocean processes, with their magnitude and predictability strongly process dependent. Signals characterized here comprise the barotropic tides, semidiurnal and diurnal internal tides, southeastward-propagating superinertial waves, westward-propagating mesoscale eddies, and a strong signature of sea level increase and pycnocline deepening associated with the region’s relaxation from El Niño to La Niña conditions. The presence of a broad band of superinertial waves just above the inertial frequency was unexpected and the FLEAT observations and output from a numerical model suggest that these waves detected near Palau are forced by remote winds east of the Philippines. The PIES-based estimates of pycnocline displacement are found to have large uncertainties relative to overall variability in pycnocline depth, as localized deep current variations arising from interactions of the large-scale currents with the abrupt topography around Palau have significant travel time variability.
    Description: Support for this research was provided by Office of Naval Research Grants N00014-16-1-2668, N00014-18-1-2406, N00014-15-1-2488, and N00014-15-1-2622. R.C.M. was additionally supported by the Postdoctoral Scholar Program at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, with funding provided by the Weston Howland Jr. Postdoctoral Scholarship.
    Keywords: Tropics ; Currents ; Eddies ; ENSO ; Internal waves ; Mesoscale processes
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  • 6
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    Mixing and transformation in a deep western boundary current: a case study (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Spingys, C. P., Garabato, A. C. N., Legg, S., Polzin, K. L., Abrahamsen, E. P., Buckingham, C. E., Forryan, A., & Frajka-Williams, E. E. Mixing and transformation in a deep western boundary current: a case study. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 51(4), (2021): 1205-1222, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-20-0132.1
    Description: Water-mass transformation by turbulent mixing is a key part of the deep-ocean overturning, as it drives the upwelling of dense waters formed at high latitudes. Here, we quantify this transformation and its underpinning processes in a small Southern Ocean basin: the Orkney Deep. Observations reveal a focusing of the transport in density space as a deep western boundary current (DWBC) flows through the region, associated with lightening and densification of the current’s denser and lighter layers, respectively. These transformations are driven by vigorous turbulent mixing. Comparing this transformation with measurements of the rate of turbulent kinetic energy dissipation indicates that, within the DWBC, turbulence operates with a high mixing efficiency, characterized by a dissipation ratio of 0.6 to 1 that exceeds the common value of 0.2. This result is corroborated by estimates of the dissipation ratio from microstructure observations. The causes of the transformation are unraveled through a decomposition into contributions dependent on the gradients in density space of the: dianeutral mixing rate, isoneutral area, and stratification. The transformation is found to be primarily driven by strong turbulence acting on an abrupt transition from the weakly stratified bottom boundary layer to well-stratified off-boundary waters. The reduced boundary layer stratification is generated by a downslope Ekman flow associated with the DWBC’s flow along sloping topography, and is further regulated by submesoscale instabilities acting to restratify near-boundary waters. Our results provide observational evidence endorsing the importance of near-boundary mixing processes to deep-ocean overturning, and highlight the role of DWBCs as hot spots of dianeutral upwelling.
    Description: CS, ACNG, AF, and EFW were supported by the U.K. Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Grant NE/K013181/1. ACNG was supported by the Royal Society and Wolfson Foundation. EPA and CEB were supported by NERC Grant NE/K012843/1. CEB was funded by an MSCA grant (No. 798319) from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 program. EPA was supported by NERC Grant NE/N018095/1. SL and KP were supported by U.S. National Science Foundation Grants OCE-1536453 and OCE-1536779. SL acknowledges support of Award NA18OAR4320123 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce. The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or the U.S. Department of Commerce.
    Keywords: Bottom currents ; Diapycnal mixing ; Turbulence ; Southern Ocean
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  • 7
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    How much Arctic fresh water participates in the subpolar overturning circulation? (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 51(3), (2021): 955–973, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-20-0240.1.
    Description: Fresh Arctic waters flowing into the Atlantic are thought to have two primary fates. They may be mixed into the deep ocean as part of the overturning circulation, or flow alongside regions of deep water formation without impacting overturning. Climate models suggest that as increasing amounts of freshwater enter the Atlantic, the overturning circulation will be disrupted, yet we lack an understanding of how much freshwater is mixed into the overturning circulation’s deep limb in the present day. To constrain these freshwater pathways, we build steady-state volume, salt, and heat budgets east of Greenland that are initialized with observations and closed using inverse methods. Freshwater sources are split into oceanic Polar Waters from the Arctic and surface freshwater fluxes, which include net precipitation, runoff, and ice melt, to examine how they imprint the circulation differently. We find that 65 mSv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) of the total 110 mSv of surface freshwater fluxes that enter our domain participate in the overturning circulation, as do 0.6 Sv of the total 1.2 Sv of Polar Waters that flow through Fram Strait. Based on these results, we hypothesize that the overturning circulation is more sensitive to future changes in Arctic freshwater outflow and precipitation, while Greenland runoff and iceberg melt are more likely to stay along the coast of Greenland.
    Description: We gratefully acknowledge the U.S. National Science Foundation: this work was supported by Grants OCE-1258823, OCE-1756272, OCE-1948335, and OCE-2038481. L.H.S. thanks the U.S. Norway Fulbright Foundation for the Norwegian Arctic Chair Grant 2019-20 that made the visit to Scripps Institution of Oceanography possible. N.P.H. acknowledges support by the U.K. Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) National Capability program CLASS (NE/R015953/1), and Grants U.K.-OSNAP (NE/K010875/1, NE/K010875/2) and U.K.-OSNAP Decade (NE/T00858X/1). We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6.
    Keywords: Arctic ; North Atlantic Ocean ; Conservation equations ; Meridional overturning circulation ; Ocean circulation ; Inverse methods
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  • 8
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    Observed eddy-internal wave interactions in the Southern Ocean (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Cusack, J. M., Brearley, J. A., Garabato, A. C. N., Smeed, D. A., Polzin, K. L., Velzeboer, N., & Shakespeare, C. J. Observed eddy-internal wave interactions in the Southern Ocean. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 50(10), (2020): 3042-3062, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-20-0001.1.
    Description: The physical mechanisms that remove energy from the Southern Ocean’s vigorous mesoscale eddy field are not well understood. One proposed mechanism is direct energy transfer to the internal wave field in the ocean interior, via eddy-induced straining and shearing of preexisting internal waves. The magnitude, vertical structure, and temporal variability of the rate of energy transfer between eddies and internal waves is quantified from a 14-month deployment of a mooring cluster in the Scotia Sea. Velocity and buoyancy observations are decomposed into wave and eddy components, and the energy transfer is estimated using the Reynolds-averaged energy equation. We find that eddies gain energy from the internal wave field at a rate of −2.2 ± 0.6 mW m−2, integrated from the bottom to 566 m below the surface. This result can be decomposed into a positive (eddy to wave) component, equal to 0.2 ± 0.1 mW m−2, driven by horizontal straining of internal waves, and a negative (wave to eddy) component, equal to −2.5 ± 0.6 mW m−2, driven by vertical shearing of the wave spectrum. Temporal variability of the transfer rate is much greater than the mean value. Close to topography, large energy transfers are associated with low-frequency buoyancy fluxes, the underpinning physics of which do not conform to linear wave dynamics and are thereby in need of further research. Our work suggests that eddy–internal wave interactions may play a significant role in the energy balance of the Southern Ocean mesoscale eddy and internal wave fields.
    Description: Funding for DIMES was provided by U.K. Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Grants NE/E007058/1 and NE/E005667/1. JMC acknowledges the support of a NERC PhD studentship, and ACNG that of the Royal Society and the Wolfson Foundation. NV acknowledges support from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CLEX) Honours Scholarship and the ANU PBSA Partnership - Spotless Scholarship. CJS acknowledges support from an ARC Discovery Early Career Researcher Award DE180100087 and an Australian National University Futures Scheme award. Numerical simulations were conducted on the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI) facility, Canberra, Australia. This study has been conducted using E.U. Copernicus Marine Service Information. We thank two anonymous reviewers for their comments which helped to improve the manuscript significantly. Codes and output files are available online at the project repository (https://github.com/jessecusack/DIMES_eddy_wave_interactions).
    Keywords: Southern Ocean ; Eddies ; Internal waves ; Turbulence
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  • 9
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    Hydraulics and mixing of the deep overflow in the Lifamatola Passage of the Indonesian Seas (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 50(9),(2020): 2797-2814, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-19-0326.1.
    Description: Hydrographic measurements recently acquired along the thalweg of the Lifamatola Passage combined with historical moored velocity measurements immediately downstream of the sill are used to study the hydraulics, transport, mixing, and entrainment in the dense overflow. The observations suggest that the mean overflow is nearly critical at the mooring site, suggesting that a weir formula may be appropriate for estimating the overflow transport. Our assessment suggests that the weir formulas corresponding to a rectangular, triangular, or parabolic cross section all result in transports very close to the observation, suggesting their potential usage in long-term monitoring of the overflow transport or parameterizing the transport in numerical models. Analyses also suggest that deep signals within the overflow layer are blocked by the shear flow from propagating upstream, whereas the shallow wave modes of the full-depth continuously stratified flow are able to propagate upstream from the Banda Sea into the Maluku Sea. Strong mixing is found immediately downstream of the sill crest, with Thorpe-scale-based estimates of the mean dissipation rate within the overflow up to 1.1 × 10−7 W kg−1 and the region-averaged diapycnal diffusivity within the downstream overflow in the range of 2.3 × 10−3 to 10.1 × 10−3 m2 s−1. Mixing in the Lifamatola Passage results in 0.6–1.2-Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) entrainment transport added to the overflow, enhancing the deep-water renewal in the Banda Sea. A bulk diffusivity coefficient estimated in the deep Banda Sea yields 1.6 × 10−3 ± 5 × 10−4 m2 s−1, with an associated downward turbulent heat flux of 9 W m−2.
    Description: This study is supported by NSFC (91858204), the CAS Strategic Priority Research Program (XDB42000000), NSFC(41720104008, 41421005, 41876025), QMSNL (2018SDKJ0104-02), and the Shandong Provincial projects (U1606402). L. Pratt was supported by the U.S. NSF Grant OCE-1657870.
    Keywords: Diapycnal mixing ; Entrainment ; Internal waves ; Topographic effects ; In situ oceanic observations
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  • 10
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    Whither the Chukchi Slope Current? (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 50(6),(2020): 1717-1732, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-19-0273.1.
    Description: Recent measurements and modeling indicate that roughly half of the Pacific-origin water exiting the Chukchi Sea shelf through Barrow Canyon forms a westward-flowing current known as the Chukchi Slope Current (CSC), yet the trajectory and fate of this current is presently unknown. In this study, through the combined use of shipboard velocity data and information from five profiling floats deployed as quasi-Lagrangian particles, we delve further into the trajectory and the fate of the CSC. During the period of observation, from early September to early October 2018, the CSC progressed far to the north into the Chukchi Borderland. The northward excursion is believed to result from the current negotiating Hanna Canyon on the Chukchi slope, consistent with potential vorticity dynamics. The volume transport of the CSC, calculated using a set of shipboard transects, decreased from approximately 2 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) to near zero over a period of 4 days. This variation can be explained by a concomitant change in the wind stress curl over the Chukchi shelf from positive to negative. After turning northward, the CSC was disrupted and four of the five floats veered offshore, with one of the floats permanently leaving the current. It is hypothesized that the observed disruption was due to an anticyclonic eddy interacting with the CSC, which has been observed previously. These results demonstrate that, at times, the CSC can get entrained into the Beaufort Gyre.
    Description: This work was principally supported by the Stratified Ocean Dynamics of the Arctic (SODA) program under ONR Grant N000141612450. S.B. wants to thank Labex iMust for supporting his research. R.S.P. acknowledges U.S. National Science Foundation Grants OPP-1702371, OPP-1733564, and PLR-1303617. P.L. acknowledges National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Grant NA14-OAR4320158. M.L. acknowledges National Natural Science Foundation of China Grants 41706025 and 41506018. T.P. thanks ENS de Lyon for travel support funding. The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of Steve Jayne, Pelle Robins, and Alex Ekholm at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution for preparation, deployment, and data provision for the ALTO floats. Chanhyung Jeon assisted in preparing and deploying the floats. The invaluable support of the crew of the R/V Sikuliaq is also gratefully acknowledged.
    Keywords: Arctic ; Continental shelf/slope ; Currents ; Mixing
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  • 11
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    Autumn Arctic Pacific sea ice dipole as a source of predictability for subsequent spring Barents Sea ice condition (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Liang, Y., Kwon, Y., & Frankignoul, C. Autumn Arctic Pacific sea ice dipole as a source of predictability for subsequent spring Barents Sea ice condition. Journal of Climate, 34(2), (2021): 787-804, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0172.1.
    Description: This study uses observational and reanalysis datasets in 1980–2016 to show a close connection between a boreal autumn sea ice dipole in the Arctic Pacific sector and sea ice anomalies in the Barents Sea (BS) during the following spring. The September–October Arctic Pacific sea ice dipole variations are highly correlated with the subsequent April–May BS sea ice variations (r = 0.71). The strong connection between the regional sea ice variabilities across the Arctic uncovers a new source of predictability for spring BS sea ice prediction at 7-month lead time. A cross-validated linear regression prediction model using the Arctic Pacific sea ice dipole with 7-month lead time is demonstrated to have significant prediction skills with 0.54–0.85 anomaly correlation coefficients. The autumn sea ice dipole, manifested as sea ice retreat in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas and expansion in the East Siberian and Laptev Seas, is primarily forced by preceding atmospheric shortwave anomalies from late spring to early autumn. The spring BS sea ice increases are mostly driven by an ocean-to-sea ice heat flux reduction in preceding months, associated with reduced horizontal ocean heat transport into the BS. The dynamical linkage between the two regional sea ice anomalies is suggested to involve positive stratospheric polar cap anomalies during autumn and winter, with its center slowly moving toward Greenland. The migration of the stratospheric anomalies is followed in midwinter by a negative North Atlantic Oscillation–like pattern in the troposphere, leading to reduced ocean heat transport into the BS and sea ice extent increase.
    Description: This study is supported by NSF’s Office of Polar Programs (Grant 1736738). We also acknowledge support by the Blue-Action project (European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, Grant 727852).
    Keywords: Arctic ; Sea ice ; Atmospheric circulation ; Ocean circulation ; Seasonal forecasting
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