ALBERT

Description: Remobilization of soil carbon as a result of permafrost degradation in the drainage basin of the major Siberian rivers combined with higher precipitation in a warming climate potentially increase the flux of terrestrial derived dissolved organic matter (tDOM) into the Arctic Ocean. The Laptev (LS) and East Siberian Seas (ESS) receive enormous amounts of tDOM-rich river water, which undergoes at least one freeze-melt cycle in the Siberian Arctic shelf seas. To better understand how freezing and melting affect the tDOM dynamics in the LS and ESS, we sampled sea ice, river and seawater for their dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration and the colored fraction of dissolved organic matter. The sampling took place in different seasons over a period of 9 years (2010–2019). Our results suggest that the main factor regulating the tDOM distribution in the LS and ESS is the mixing of marine waters with freshwater sources carrying different tDOM concentrations. Of particular importance in this context are the 211 km3 of meltwater from land-fast ice from the LS, containing ~ 0.3 Tg DOC, which in spring mixes with 245 km3 of river water from the peak spring discharge of the Lena River, carrying ~ 2.4 Tg DOC into the LS. During the ice-free season, tDOM transport on the shelves takes place in the surface mixed layer, with the direction of transport depending on the prevailing wind direction. In winter, about 1.2 Tg of brine-related DOC, which was expelled from the growing land-fast ice in the LS, is transported in the near-surface water layer into the Transpolar Drift Stream that flows from the Siberian Shelf toward Greenland. The actual water depth in which the tDOM-rich brines are transported, depends mainly on the density stratification of the LS and ESS in the preceding summer and the amount of ice produced in winter. We suspect that climate change in the Arctic will fundamentally alter the dynamics of tDOM transport in the Arctic marginal seas, which will also have consequences for the Arctic carbon cycle.

Description: We describe and test a new model of biological marine silicate cycling, implemented in the Kiel Marine Biogeochemical Model version 3 (KMBM3), embedded in the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) version 2.9. This new model adds diatoms, which are a key component of the biological carbon pump, to an existing ecosystem model. This new model combines previously published parameterizations of a diatom functional type, opal production and export with a novel, temperature-dependent dissolution scheme. Modelled steady-state biogeochemical rates, carbon and nutrient distributions are similar to those found in previous model versions. The new model performs well against independent ocean biogeochemical indicators and captures the large-scale features of the marine silica cycle to a degree comparable to similar Earth system models. Furthermore, it is computationally efficient, allowing both fully coupled, long-timescale transient simulations and “offline” transport matrix spinups. We assess the fully coupled model against modern ocean observations, the historical record starting from 1960 and a business-as-usual atmospheric CO2 forcing to the year 2300. The model simulates a global decline in net primary production (NPP) of 1.4 % having occurred since the 1960s, with the strongest declines in the tropics, northern midlatitudes and Southern Ocean. The simulated global decline in NPP reverses after the year 2100 (forced by the extended RCP8.5 CO2 concentration scenario), and NPP returns to 98 % of the pre-industrial rate by 2300. This recovery is dominated by increasing primary production in the Southern Ocean, mostly by calcifying phytoplankton. Large increases in calcifying phytoplankton in the Southern Ocean offset a decline in the low latitudes, producing a global net calcite export in 2300 that varies only slightly from pre-industrial rates. Diatom distribution moves southward in our simulations, following the receding Antarctic ice front, but diatoms are outcompeted by calcifiers across most of their pre-industrial Southern Ocean habitat. Global opal export production thus drops to 75 % of its pre-industrial value by 2300. Model nutrients such as phosphate, silicate and nitrate build up along the Southern Ocean particle export pathway, but dissolved iron (for which ocean sources are held constant) increases in the upper ocean. This different behaviour of iron is attributed to a reduction of low-latitude NPP (and consequently, a reduction in both uptake and export and particle, including calcite scavenging), an increase in seawater temperatures (raising the solubility of particulate iron) and stratification that “traps” the iron near the surface. These results are meant to serve as a baseline for sensitivity assessments to be undertaken with this model in the future.