ALBERT

Description: Journal of Hydrometeorology, Ahead of Print. 〈br/〉

Description: The historical developments are reviewed that have led from a bottom-up responsibility initiative of concerned scientists to the emergence of a nationwide interdisciplinary Priority Program on the assessment of Climate Engineering (CE), funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG). Given the perceived lack of comprehensive and comparative appraisals of different CE methods, the Priority Program was designed to encompass both solar radiation management (SRM) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) ideas, and to cover the atmospheric, terrestrial and oceanic realm. First key findings obtained by the ongoing Priority Program are summarized and reveal that compared to earlier assessments, such as the 2009 Royal Society report, more detailed investigations tend to indicate less efficiency, lower effectiveness and often lower safety. Emerging research trends are discussed in the context of the recent Paris agreement to limit global warming to less than two degrees and the associated increasing reliance on negative emission technologies. Our results show then when deployed at scales large enough to have a significant impact on atmospheric CO 2 , even CDR methods such as afforestation – often perceived as ‘benign’ – can have substantial side effects and may raise severe ethical, legal and governance issues. We suppose that before being deployed at climatically relevant scales, any negative-emission or climate engineering method will require careful analysis of efficiency, effectiveness and undesired side effects.

Description: Since 1960's, India experiences a series of extreme drought and flood events during the summer months. The Humid Subtropical Climatic Zone (HSTC), which comprises the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) region of India, is highly vulnerable to the climatic extremities. This region is the home for ~40% of total population and yields ~50% of total agricultural production of India. We investigate the historical variation in dry/wet conditions and project the future changes in extreme events under two different scenarios of the CMIP5 models. Firstly, the model parameters i.e. precipitation ( P ) and temperature ( T ) are bias corrected with respect to observation data and finally 6 models are selected, which are in right phase with the observation for composite analysis. Next, we calculate the potential evapo-transpiration ( PET ) and the Standardized Potential Evapo-transpiration Index ( SPEI ) to characterize the extreme events. Both P and PET are projected to increase in the HSTC zone; however, both the wet and dry conditions demonstrate a persistent increase in future. In relative terms, P increases faster than PET along the Gangetic Plain region (wet condition) and decreases in the southern and eastern part of the region (dry condition). The mitigating effect (RCP4.5 scenario) of precipitation increase will be overridden by strengthened PET and extreme dry condition project markedly under RCP8.5 scenario. The features are consistent with the increase/ decrease in multi-model mean SPEI, consistent with the spatial pattern of P−PET . The area affected due to wet and dry events will be relatively higher under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively.

Description: In the 2000s, the rapid growth of CO 2 emitted in the production of exports from developing to developed countries, in which China accounted for the dominant share, led to concerns that climate polices had been undermined by international trade. Arguments on ‘carbon leakage’ and ‘competitiveness’ – which led to the refusal of the United States to ratify the Kyoto Protocol – put pressure on developing countries, especially China, to limit their emissions with Border Carbon Adjustments used as one threat. After strong growth in the early 2000s, emissions exported from developing to developed countries plateaued and could have even decreased since 2007. These changes were mainly due to China: In 2002–2007, China’s exported emissions grew by 827 MtCO 2 , amounting to almost all the 892 MtCO 2 total increase in emissions exported from developing to developed countries, while in 2007–2012, emissions exported from China decreased by 229 MtCO 2 , contributing to the total decrease of 172 MtCO 2 exported from developing to developed countries. We apply Structural Decomposition Analysis to find that, in addition to the diminishing effects of the global financial crisis, the slowdown and eventual plateau was largely explained by several potentially permanent changes in China: Decline in export volume growth, improvements in CO 2 intensity, and changes in production structure and the mix of exported products. We argue that growth in China’s exported emissions will not return to the high levels during the 2000s, therefore the arguments for climate polices focused on embodied emissions such as Border Carbon Adjustments are now weakened.

Description: We present new detail on how future SLR will modify nonlinear wave transformation processes, shoreline wave energy and wave driven flooding on atoll islands. Frequent and destructive wave inundation is a primary climate-change hazard that may render atoll islands uninhabitable in the near future. However, limited research has examined the physical vulnerability of atoll islands to future SLR and sparse information is available to implement process based coastal management on coral reef environments. We utilize a field-verified numerical model capable of resolving all nonlinear wave transformation processes to simulate how future SLR will modify wave dissipation and overtopping on Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu, accounting for static and accretionary reef adjustment morphologies. Results show that future SLR coupled with a static reef morphology will not only increase shoreline wave energy and overtopping but will fundamental alter the spectral composition of shoreline energy by decreasing the contemporary influence of low frequency infragravity waves. ‘ Business-as-usual ' emissions (RCP 8.5) will result in annual wave overtopping on Funafuti Atoll by 2030, with overtopping at high tide under mean wave conditions occurring from 2090. Comparatively, vertical reef accretion in response to SLR will prevent any significant increase in shoreline wave energy and mitigate wave driven flooding volume by 72%. Our results provide the first quantitative assessment of how effective future reef accretion can be at mitigating SLR associated flooding on atoll islands and endorse active reef conservation and restoration for future coastal protection.

Description: ABSTRACT Risk perception research has played an influential role in supporting risk management and risk communication policy. Risk perception studies are popular across a range of disciplines in the social and natural sciences for a wide range of hazard types. Their results have helped to articulate the complex individual, relational, structural, and environmental factors influencing people's behavior. Connections between individual and collective behaviors and norms impacting global climate change, and consequently, local disaster risk, however, are infrequently included in disaster risk management. This paper presents results from two diverse and complementary European risk perception studies examining both natural and anthropogenic hazards. Research gaps and recommendations for developing more comprehensive risk management strategies are presented.

Description: Multi-sectoral partnerships (MSPs) form an increasingly popular and important part of the global climate and disaster risk governance landscape, but literature offers little critical investigation of this phenomenon. In particular it remains unclear how MSPs can support the transition from agenda-setting to implementation in response to multiple current and future pressures threatening the resilience of cities. Through the lens of the London Climate Change Partnership (LCCP) and drawing from other MSP examples, this paper investigates the scope for MSPs to enhance climate adaptation in an urban context. Our paper has two main aims: to expand understanding of the role of MSPs in the adaptation decision process in the context of the wider governance literature, and to shed some light on the complexities of transitioning through that process. To clarify the role of a MSP we propose a distinction between ‘first generation’ and ‘second generation’ MSPs, illustrating the progression from agenda-setting to implementation: ‘first generation’ MSPs are focused on agenda-setting and knowledge sharing in order to support decision-makers, while ‘second generation’ partnerships are aimed at implementing solutions. We consider this distinction from the perspective of the individual members and their perceptions, motivations and expectations. We find that the dynamic nature of urban adaptation with a shifting focus from initial agenda setting towards the implementation of actions presents challenges for existing MSPs, particularly such long-established ones like the LCCP. Our investigation shows that ‘first generation’ MSPs can play important roles in agenda-setting, but finds little evidence of ‘second generation’ MSPs achieving implementation.

Description: Improving society's ability to prepare for, respond to and recover from flooding requires integrated, anticipatory flood risk management (FRM) . However, most countries still focus their efforts on responding to flooding events if and when they occur rather than addressing their current and future vulnerability to flooding. Flood insurance is one mechanism that could a more ex-ante approach to risk by supporting risk reduction activities. This paper uses an adapted version of Easton's System Theory to investigate the role of insurance for FRM in Germany and England. We introduce an anticipatory FRM framework, which allows to consider flood insurance as part of a broader policy field. We analyse if and how flood insurance can catalyse a change towards a more anticipatory approach to FRM. In particular we consider insurance's role in influencing five key components of an anticipatory FRM: risk knowledge, prevention through better planning, property-level protection measures, structural protection and preparedness (for response). We find that in both countries FRM is still a reactive, event-driven process, while anticipatory FRM remains underdeveloped. However, collaboration between insurers and FRM decision-makers has already been successful, for example in improving risk knowledge and awareness, while in other areas insurance acts as a disincentive for more risk reduction action. In both countries there is evidence that insurance can play a significant role in encouraging anticipatory FRM, but this remains underutilized. Effective collaboration between insurers and government, should not be seen as a cost, but as an investment to secure future insurability through flood resilience.

Description: Just as carbon fueled the Industrial Revolution, nitrogen has fueled an Agricultural Revolution. The use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers and the cultivation of nitrogen-fixing crops both expanded exponentially during the last century, with most of the increase occurring after 1960. As a result, the current flux of reactive, or fixed, nitrogen compounds to the biosphere due to human activities is roughly equivalent to the total flux of fixed nitrogen from all natural sources, both on land masses and in the world's oceans. Natural fluxes of fixed nitrogen are subject to very large uncertainties, but anthropogenic production of reactive nitrogen has increased almost five-fold in the last half-century, and this rapid increase in anthropogenic fixed nitrogen has removed any uncertainty on the relative importance of anthropogenic fluxes to the natural budget. The increased use of nitrogen has been critical for increased crop yields and protein production needed to keep pace with the growing world population. However, similar to carbon, the release of fixed nitrogen into the natural environment is linked to adverse consequences at local, regional, and global scales. Anthropogenic contributions of fixed nitrogen continue to grow relative to the natural budget, with uncertain consequences.

Description: Land surface albedo is a key parameter controlling the local energy budget, and altering the albedo of built surfaces has been proposed as a tool to mitigate high near-surface temperatures in the Urban Heat Island. However, most research on albedo in urban landscapes has used coarse-resolution data, and few studies have attempted to relate albedo to other urban land cover characteristics. This study provides an empirical description of urban summertime albedo using 30 m remote sensing measurements in the metropolitan area around Boston, Massachusetts, relating albedo to metrics of impervious cover fraction, tree canopy coverage, population density, and land surface temperature (LST). At 30 m spatial resolution, median albedo over the study area (excluding open water) was 0.152 (0.112–0.187). Trends of lower albedo with increasing urbanization metrics and temperature emerged only after aggregating data to 500 m or the boundaries of individual towns, at which scale a −0.01 change in albedo was associated with a 29 (25–35)% decrease in canopy cover, a 27 (24–30)% increase in impervious cover, and an increase in population from 11–386 km −2 . The most intensively urbanized towns in the region showed albedo up to 0.035 lower than the least urbanized towns, and mean mid-morning LST 12.6 °C higher. Trends in albedo derived from 500 m MODIS measurements were comparable, but indicated a strong contribution of open water at this coarser resolution. These results reveal linkages between albedo and urban land cover character, and offer empirical context for climate resilient planning and future landscape functional changes with urbanization.

Description: In this study, we demonstrate skillful spring forecasts of detrended September Arctic sea ice extent using passive microwave observations of sea ice concentration (SIC) and melt onset (MO). We compare these to forecasts produced using data from a sophisticated melt pond model, and find similar to higher skill values, where the forecast skill is calculated relative to linear trend persistence. The MO forecasts shows the highest skill in March–May, while the SIC forecasts produce the highest skill in June–August, especially when the forecasts are evaluated over recent years (since 2008). The high MO forecast skill in early spring appears to be driven primarily by the presence and timing of open water anomalies, while the high SIC forecast skill appears to be driven by both open water and surface melt processes. Spatial maps of detrended anomalies highlight the drivers of the different forecasts, and enable us to understand regions of predictive importance. Correctly capturing sea ice state anomalies, along with changes in open water coverage appear to be key processes in skillfully forecasting summer Arctic sea ice.

Description: Society has set ambitious targets for stabilizing mean global temperature. To attain these targets, it will have to reduce CO 2 emissions to near zero by mid-century and subsequently remove CO 2 from the atmosphere during the latter half of the century. There is a recognized need to develop technologies for CO 2 removal; however, attempts to develop direct air capture systems have faced both energetic and financial constraints. Recently, BioEnergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) has emerged as a leading candidate for removing CO 2 from the atmosphere. However, BECCS can have negative consequences on land, nutrient, and water use as well as biodiversity and food production. Here, we describe an alternative approach based on the large-scale industrial production of marine microalgae. When cultivated with proper attention to power, carbon, and nutrient sources, microalgae can be processed to produce a variety of biopetroleum products, including carbon neutral biofuels for the transportation sector and long-lived, potentially carbon-negative construction materials for the built environment. In addition to these direct roles in mitigating and potentially reversing the effects of fossil CO 2 emissions, microalgae can also play an important indirect role. Because microalgae exhibit much higher primary production rates than terrestrial plants, they require much less land area to produce an equivalent amount of bioenergy and/or food. On a global scale, the avoided emissions resulting from displacement of conventional agriculture may exceed the benefits of microalgae biofuels in achieving climate stabilization goals.

Description: Biome-specific soil respiration (Rs) has important yet different roles in both the carbon cycle and climate change from regional to global scales. To date, no comparable studies related to global biome-specific Rs have been conducted applying comprehensive global Rs databases. The goal of this study was to develop artificial neural network (ANN) models capable of spatially estimating global Rs and to evaluate the effects of interannual climate variations on 10 major biomes. We used 1,976 annual Rs field records extracted from global Rs literature to train and test the ANN models. We determined that the best ANN model for predicting biome-specific global annual Rs was the one that applied mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP) and biome type as inputs ( r 2  = 0.60). The ANN models reported an average global Rs of 93.3 ± 6.1 Pg C year −1 from 1960 to 2012 and an increasing trend in average global annual Rs of 0.04 Pg C year −1 . Estimated annual Rs increased with increases in MAT and MAP in cropland, boreal forest, grassland, shrubland and wetland biomes. Additionally, estimated annual Rs decreased with increases in MAT and increased with increases in MAP in desert and tundra biomes, and only significantly decreased with increases in MAT ( r 2  = 0.87) in the savannah biome. The developed biome-specific global Rs database for global land and soil carbon models will aid in understanding the mechanisms underlying variations in soil carbon dynamics and in quantifying uncertainty in the global soil carbon cycle.

Description: ABSTRACT Monitoring is science keeping our thumb on the pulse of the environment to detect any changes of concern for societies. Basic science is the question-driven search for fundamental processes and mechanisms. Given the firm root of monitoring in human interests and needs, basic sciences have often been regarded as scientifically “purer” – particularly within university-based research communities. We argue that the dichotomy between “research” and “monitoring” is an artificial one, and that this artificial split clouds the definition of scientific goals and leads to suboptimal use of resources. We claim that the synergy between the two scientific approaches is well distilled by science conducted under extreme logistic constraints, when scientists are forced to take full advantage of both the data and the infrastructure available. In evidence of this view, we present our experiences from two decades of uniting research and monitoring at the remote research facility Zackenberg in High Arctic Greenland. For this site, we show how the combination of insights from monitoring with the mechanistic understanding obtained from basic research has yielded the most complete understanding of the system – to the benefit of all, and as an example to follow. We therefore urge scientists from across the continuum from monitoring to research to come together, to disregard old division lines, and to work together to expose a comprehensive picture of ecosystem change and its consequences.

Description: Although recent decades have been the warmest since 1850, and global mean temperatures during 2015 and 2016 beat all instrumental records, the rate of increase in global surface air temperature (GSAT) significantly decreased at the beginning of the 21st Century. In this context, we examine the roles of ice melting and associated increase in sea-water mass, both of which significantly increased at the same time as GSAT decreased. Specifically, we show that (1) the slowdown of the rate of increase in GSAT between the specific periods 1992–2001 and 2002–2011 exists in all three climate records analyzed and is statistically significant at the 5% level amounting between 0.029 and 0. 036 °C/yr and leaving an energy of 14.8 to 18.4 10 19  J/yr available; (2) the increase of the atmosphere-related ice melt between these two periods amounts to 316 Gt/yr which requires 10.5 10 19  J/yr, i.e. between 57% and 71 % of the energy left by the slowdown; and (3) the energy budget shows therefore that the heat required to melt this additional 316 Gt/yr of ice is of the same order as the energy needed to warm the atmosphere during the decade 2002–2011 as much as during the previous one, suggesting a redistribution of heat within the atmosphere-cryosphere system.

Description: Climate change is a major driver of vegetation activity but its complex ecological relationships impede research efforts. In this study, the spatial distribution and dynamic characteristics of climate change effects on vegetation activity in China from the 1980s to the 2010s and from 2021 to 2050 were investigated using a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The GWR model was based on combined datasets of satellite vegetation index, climate observation and projection, and future vegetation productivity simulation. Our results revealed that the significantly positive precipitation-vegetation relationship was and will be mostly distributed in North China. However, the regions with temperature-dominated distribution of vegetation activity were and will be mainly located in South China. Due to the varying climate features and vegetation cover, the spatial correlation between vegetation activity and climate change may be altered. There will be different dominant climatic factors for vegetation activity distribution in some regions such as Northwest China, and even opposite correlations in Northeast China. Additionally, the response of vegetation activity to precipitation will move southward in the next three decades. In contrast, although the high warming rate will restrain the vegetation activity, precipitation variability could modify hydrothermal conditions for vegetation activity. This observation is exemplified in the projected future enhancement of vegetation activity in the Tibetan Plateau and weakened vegetation activity in East and Middle China. Furthermore, the vegetation in most parts of North China may adapt to an arid environment, whereas in many southern areas, vegetation will be repressed by water shortage in the future.

Description: We examine some unexpected epistemological conflicts that arise at the interfaces between ecological science, the ecosystem services framework, policy and industry. We use an example from our own research to motivate and illustrate our main arguments, while also reviewing standard approaches to ecological science using the ecosystem services framework. While we agree that the ecosystem services framework has benefits in its industrial applications because it may force economic decision makers to consider a broader range of costs and benefits than they would do otherwise, we find that many alignments of ecology with the ecosystem services framework are asking questions that are irrelevant to real-world applications, and generating data that does not serve real-world applications. We attempt to clarify why these problems arise and how to avoid them. We urge fellow ecologists to reflect on the kind of research that can lead to both scientific advances and applied relevance to society. In our view, traditional empirical approaches at landscape scales or with place-based emphases are necessary to provide applied knowledge for problem solving, which is needed once decision makers identify risks to ecosystem services. We conclude that the ecosystem services framework is a good policy tool when applied to decision-making contexts, but not a good theory either of social valuation or ecological interactions, and should not be treated as one.

Description: Because of its low level of energy consumption and the small scale of its industrial development, the Tibet Autonomous Region has historically been excluded from China's reported energy statistics, including those regarding CO 2 emissions. In this paper, we estimate Tibet's energy consumption using limited online documents, and we calculate the 2014 energy-related and process-related CO 2 emissions of Tibet and its seven prefecture-level administrative divisions for the first time. Our results show that 5.52 million tons of CO 2 were emitted in Tibet in 2014; 33% of these emissions are associated with cement production. Tibet's emissions per capita amounted to 1.74 tons in 2014, which is substantially lower than the national average, although Tibet's emission intensity is relatively high at 0.60 tons per thousand yuan in 2014. Among Tibet's seven prefecture-level administrative divisions, Lhasa City and Shannan Region are the two largest CO 2 contributors and have the highest per capita emissions and emission intensities. The Nagqu and Nyingchi regions emit little CO 2 due to their farming/pasturing-dominated economies. This quantitative measure of Tibet's regional CO 2 emissions provides solid data support for Tibet's actions on climate change and emission reductions.

Description: Evapotranspiration is a key variable in hydrology, playing an important role in water and energy balance of the land surface. There has been speculation on the direction of trend in potential and actual evapotranspiration (PET and AET) resulting from rising global temperatures, in both observational and derived records representing the historical climate. In this study, PET and AET trends of 8 different global model datasets where analyzed over two time periods: from 2003 to 2012 (short term) and from 1980 to 2012 (multi-decadal), to identify regions where the trends coincide or differ and to study the reasons behind these changes. The short-term analysis showed considerable uncertainty exists on the detection and direction of significant trends on both PET and AET. There was little agreement amongst the datasets about the direction of the global trends. The multi-decadal study showed much more consistent trends throughout the datasets, particularly in relation to positive significant PET trends. During this period, the global PET mean increased 0.091mm/month/year, while the global AET rose at 0.045 mm/month/year. Much of the opposite PET/AET trends can be attributed to changes in the precipitation. Most of the regions which present these trends are water-limited and present strong correlations between AET and precipitation trends. Some energy-limited regions showed an increasing gap between PET and AET, suggesting the influence of additional variables controlling AET.

Description: As flood impacts are increasing in large parts of the world, understanding the primary drivers of changes in risk is essential for effective adaptation. To gain more knowledge on the basis of empirical case studies, we analyze eight paired floods, i.e. consecutive flood events that occurred in the same region, with the second flood causing significantly lower damage. These success stories of risk reduction were selected across different socio-economic and hydro-climatic contexts. The potential of societies to adapt is uncovered by describing triggered societal changes, as well as formal measures and spontaneous processes that reduced flood risk. This novel approach has the potential to build the basis for an international data collection and analysis effort to better understand and attribute changes in risk due to hydrological extremes in the framework of the IAHSs Panta Rhei initiative. Across all case studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability, e.g. via raised risk awareness, preparedness and improvements of organizational emergency management. Thus, vulnerability reduction plays an essential role for successful adaptation. Our work shows that there is a high potential to adapt, but there remains the challenge to stimulate measures that reduce vulnerability and risk in periods in which extreme events do not occur. Index Terms 1821 Floods (4303); 4327 Resilience; 4328 Risk; 4330 Vulnerability; 4339 Disaster mitigation

Description: Global multi-model wave climate projections are obtained at 1.0°x1.0° scale from 30 CMIP5 Global Climate Model (GCM) realizations. A semi-supervised weather-typing approach based on a characterization of the ocean wave generation areas and the historical wave information from the recent GOW2 database are used to train the statistical model. This framework is also applied to obtain high resolution projections of coastal wave climate and coastal impacts as port operability and coastal flooding. Regional projections are estimated using the collection of weather types at spacing of 1.0°. This assumption is feasible because the predictor is defined based on the wave generation area and the classification is guided by the local wave climate. The assessment of future changes in coastal impacts is based on direct downscaling of indicators defined by empirical formulations (total water level for coastal flooding and number of hours per year with overtopping for port operability). Global multi-model projections of the significant wave height and peak period are consistent with changes obtained in previous studies. Statistical confidence of expected changes is obtained due to the large number of GCMs to construct the ensemble. The proposed methodology is proved to be flexible to project wave climate at different spatial scales. Regional changes of additional variables as wave direction or other statistics can be estimated from the future empirical distribution with extreme values restricted to high percentiles (i.e., 95th, 99th percentiles). The statistical framework can also be applied to evaluate regional coastal impacts integrating changes in storminess and sea level rise.

Description: Large parts of tropical coastlines are influenced by the presence of reefs that shape its coastline. Wave attenuation crossing reefs as they approach the coast results in accretionary coastal features developed in its shadow zones. With the aim of assessing the level of wave exposure of the coastline under different sea-level rise scenarios, numerical modeling experiments have been designed considering a coastline segment of approximately 450 km in northeast Brazil. Results show the distribution of wave power along the area of interest, with higher values being found in areas without reefs. However, when considering sea-level rise scenarios, it is behind the reefs where the maximum differences in wave power are observed. The increase in the free surface over the reef structures as a result of rising sea level reduces the wave attenuation effects caused by these structures. Thus, the waves hit the shore with greater force in the shadow zone protected by the reef. Here we demonstrate that regions within the reef shadow zones are most strongly affected by sea-level rise with up to a 90% increase in the wave power, which will lead to increase in sediment transport and erosion processes. Such processes indicate a trend toward coastline flattening and alignment in response to less effective shadow zones.

Description: Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research, however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirically-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, USA, for the period 2001–2100. Land-use histories and demographic trends were used to project a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km 2  yr −1 ; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%, however the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40-90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

Description: Wet bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) accounts for the effect of environmental temperature and humidity on thermal comfort, and can be directly related to the ability of the human body to dissipate excess metabolic heat and thus avoid heat stress. Using WBGT as a measure of environmental conditions conducive to heat stress, we show that anthropogenic influence has very substantially increased the likelihood of extreme high summer mean WBGT in northern hemispheric land areas relative to the climate that would have prevailed in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. We estimate that the likelihood of summer mean WGBT exceeding the observed historical record value has increased by a factor of at least 70 at regional scales due to anthropogenic influence on the climate. We further estimate that, in most northern hemispheric regions, these changes in the likelihood of extreme summer mean WBGT are roughly an order of magnitude larger than the corresponding changes in the likelihood of extreme hot summers as simply measured by surface air temperature. Projections of future summer mean WBGT under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario that are constrained by observations indicate that by 2030s at least 50% of the summers will have mean WBGT higher than the observed historical record value in all the analyzed regions, and that this frequency of occurrence will increase to 95% by mid-century.

Description: Global renewable electricity generation capacity has rapidly increased in the past decade. Increasing the sustainability of electricity generation and the market share of solar photovoltaics (PV) will require continued cost reductions or higher efficiencies. Wavelength-Selective Photovoltaic Systems (WSPVs) combine luminescent solar cell technology with conventional Silicon-based PV, thereby increasing efficiency and lowering the cost of electricity generation. WSPVs absorb some of the blue and green wavelengths of the solar spectrum but transmit the remaining wavelengths that can be utilized by photosynthesis for plants growing below. WSPVs are ideal for integrating electricity generation with glasshouse production, but it is not clear how they may affect plant development and physiological processes. The effects of tomato photosynthesis under WSPVs showed a small decrease in water use, whereas there were minimal effects on the number and fresh weight of fruit for a number of commercial species. Although more research is required on the impacts of WSPVs, they are a promising technology for greater integration of distributed electricity generation with food production operations, for reducing water loss in crops grown in controlled environments, as building-integrated solar facilities, or as alternatives to high-impact PV for energy generation over agricultural or natural ecosystems.

Description: The coastline of Kenya already experiences effects of climate change, adding to existing pressures such as urbanization. Integrated coastal management (ICM) is increasingly recognized as a key policy response to deal with the multiple challenges facing coastal zones, including climate change. It can create an enabling governance environment for effective local action on climate change by facilitating a structured approach to dealing with coastal issues. It encompasses the actions of a wide range of actors, including local governments close to people and their activities affected by climate change. Functioning ICM also offers opportunities for reducing risks and building resilience. This paper applied a modified Capitals Approach Framework (CAF), consisting of five “capitals”, to assess the status of county government capacity to respond to climate change within the context of coastal governance in three County governments in Kenya. The baseline was defined in terms of governance relating to the implementation of the interrelated policy systems of ICM and coastal climate change adaptation (CCA). The CAF framework provided a systematic approach to building a governance baseline against which to assess the progress of county governments in responding to climate change. It identified gaps in human capacity, financial resource allocation to adaptation and access to climate change information. Further, it showed that having well-developed institutions, including regulatory frameworks at the national level can facilitate but does not automatically enable adaptation at the county level.

Description: Changing frequencies of extreme weather events and shifting fire seasons call for enhanced capability to forecast where and when forested landscapes switch from a non-flammable (i.e. wet fuel) state to the highly flammable (i.e. dry fuel) state required for catastrophic forest fires. Current forest fire danger indices used in Europe, North America and Australia rate potential fire behaviour by combining numerical indices of fuel moisture content, potential rate of fire spread, and fire intensity. These numerical rating systems lack the physical basis required to reliably quantify forest flammability outside the environments of their development or under novel climate conditions. Here, we argue that exceedance of critical forest flammability thresholds is a prerequisite for major forest fires and therefore early warning systems should be based on a reliable prediction of fuel moisture content plus a regionally calibrated model of how forest fire activity responds to variation in fuel moisture content. We demonstrate the potential of this approach through a case study in Portugal. We use a physically-based fuel moisture model with historical weather and fire records to identify critical fuel moisture thresholds for forest fire activity and then show that the catastrophic June 2017 forest fires in central Portugal erupted shortly after fuels in the region dried out to historically unprecedented levels.

Description: Sustainable development goals (SDGs) have set the 2030 agenda to transform our world by tackling multiple challenges humankind is facing to ensure well-being, economic prosperity, and environmental protection. In contrast to conventional development agendas focusing on a restricted set of dimensions, the SDGs provide a holistic and multidimensional view on development. Hence, interactions among the SDGs may cause diverging results. To analyze the SDG interactions we systematize the identification of synergies and trade-offs using official SDG indicator data for 227 countries. A significant positive correlation between a pair of SDG indicators is classified as a synergy while a significant negative correlation is classified as a trade-off . We rank synergies and trade-offs between SDGs pairs on global and country scales in order to identify the most frequent SDG interactions. For a given SDG, positive correlations between indicator pairs were found to outweigh the negative ones in most countries. Among SDGs the positive and negative correlations between indicator pairs allowed for the identification of particular global patterns. SDG 1 ( No poverty ) has synergetic relationship with most of the other goals, whereas SDG 12 ( Responsible consumption and production ) is the goal most commonly associated with trade-offs. The attainment of the SDG agenda will greatly depend on whether the identified synergies among the goals can be leveraged. In addition, the highlighted trade-offs, which constitute obstacles in achieving the SDGs, need to be negotiated and made structurally nonobstructive by deeper changes in the current strategies.

Description: The potential of Coastal Ocean Alkalinization (COA), a carbon dioxide removal (CDR) climate engineering strategy that chemically increases ocean carbon uptake and storage, is investigated with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. The CDR potential and possible environmental side effects are estimated for various COA deployment scenarios, assuming olivine as the alkalinity source in ice-free coastal waters (about 8.6% of the global ocean's surface area), with dissolution rates being a function of grain size, ambient seawater temperature and pH. Our results indicate that for a large-enough olivine deployment of small-enough grain sizes (10 μm), atmospheric CO 2 could be reduced by more than 800 GtC by the year 2100. However, COA with coarse olivine grains (1000 μm) has little CO 2 sequestration potential on this time scale. Ambitious CDR with fine olivine grains would increase coastal aragonite saturation Ω to levels well beyond those that are currently observed. When imposing upper limits for aragonite saturation levels (Ω lim ) in the grid boxes subject to COA (Ω lim = 3.4 and 9 chosen as examples), COA still has the potential to reduce atmospheric CO 2 by 265 GtC (Ω lim =3.4) to 790 GtC (Ω lim =9) and increase ocean carbon storage by 290 Gt (Ω lim =3.4) to 913 Gt (Ω lim =9) by year 2100.

Description: Communication of climate change (CC) risks is challenging, in particular if global-scale spatially resolved quantitative information is to be conveyed. Typically, visualization of CC risks, which arise from the combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, is confined to showing only the hazards in the form of global thematic maps. This paper explores the potential of contiguous value-by-area cartograms, i.e. distorted density-equalizing maps, for improving communication of CC risks and the countries’ differentiated responsibilities for CC. Two global-scale cartogram sets visualize, as an example, groundwater-related CC risks in 0.5° grid cells, another one the correlation of (cumulative) fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions with the countries’ population and gross domestic product. Viewers of the latter set visually recognize the lack of global equity and that the countries’ wealth has been built on harmful emissions. I recommend that CC risks are communicated by bivariate gridded cartograms showing the hazard in color and population, or a combination of population and a vulnerability indicator, by distortion of grid cells. Gridded cartograms are also appropriate for visualizing the availability of natural resources to humans. For communicating complex information, sets of cartograms should be carefully designed instead of presenting single cartograms. Inclusion of a conventionally-distorted map enhances the viewers’ capability to take up the information represented by distortion. Empirical studies about the capability of global cartograms to convey complex information and to trigger moral emotions should be conducted, with a special focus on risk communication.

Description: Increase of forest areas has the potential to increase the terrestrial carbon (C) sink. However, the efficiency for C sequestration depends on the availability of nutrients such as nitrogen (N), which is affected by climatic conditions and management practices. In this study, I analyze how N limitation affects C sequestration of afforestation and how it is influenced by individual climate variables, increased harvest, and fertilizer application. To this end, JSBACH, the land component of the Earth system model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology is applied in idealized simulation experiments. In those simulations, large-scale afforestation increases the terrestrial C sink in the 21st century by around 100 Pg C compared to a business as usual land-use scenario. N limitation reduces C sequestration roughly by the same amount. The relevance of compensating effects of uptake and release of carbon dioxide by plant productivity and soil decomposition, respectively, gets obvious from the simulations. N limitation of both fluxes compensates particularly in the tropics. Increased mineralization under global warming triggers forest expansion, which otherwise is restricted by N availability. Due to compensating higher plant productivity and soil respiration, the global net effect of warming for C sequestration is however rather small. Fertilizer application and increased harvest enhance C sequestration as well as boreal expansion. The additional C sequestration achieved by fertilizer application is offset to a large part by additional emissions of nitrous oxide.

Description: Quantifying the annual flux of CO 2 (carbon dioxide) and equivalent emissions to the atmosphere is critical for both policy decisions and modeling of future climate change. Given the importance of greenhouse gas emissions to climate change and a recognized mismatch between sources and sinks (e.g., Liu & Dreybrodt , 2015), it is important to quantify these parameters. A significant and previously unrecognized CO 2 contribution arises from groundwater depletion (net removal from storage). The average annual 1.7 MMT (million metric tons) CO 2 released in the United States from this source is greater than approximately one third of the 23 major sources reported by the US EPA (United States Environmental Protection Agency) to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; US EPA, ).

Description: The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21 st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary conditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045-2054 and 2085-2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995-2004). Probability density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Using “business-as-usual” scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5-10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥95°F days will increase by 1-2 months by the end of the century.

Description: With minimal moral hazard and adverse selection, weather index insurance promises financial resilience to farmers struck by harsh weather conditions through swift compensation at affordable premium. Despite these advantages, the very nature of indexing gives rise to production basis risk as the selected weather indexes do not sufficiently correspond to actual damages. To address this problem, we develop a stochastic yield model, built upon a stochastic soil moisture model driven by marked Poisson rainfall. Our analysis shows that even under similar temperature and rainfall amount, yields can differ significantly; this was empirically supported by a two-year field experiment in which rain-fed maize was grown under very similar total rainfall amounts. Here, the year with more intense, less frequent rainfall produces a better yield—a rare counter evidence to most climate change projections. Through a stochastic yield model, we demonstrate the crucial roles of rainfall intensity and frequency in determining the yield. Importantly, the model allows us to compute rainfall pattern-related basis risk inherent in cumulative rain index insurance. The model results and a case study herein clearly show that total rainfall is a poor indicator of yield, imposing unnecessary production basis risk on farmers and false-positive payouts on insurers. Incorporating rainfall intensity and frequency in the design of rain index insurance can offer farmers better protection, while maintaining the attractive features of the weather index insurance and thus fulfilling its promise of financial resilience.

Description: Extratropical cyclone activity over Eurasia has exhibited a weakening trend in the recent decade. Extratropical cyclones bring precipitation and hence supply fresh water for winter crops in the mid- and high-latitude regions of Eurasia. Any changes in extratropical cyclone activity over Eurasia in the future may have a critical impact on winter agriculture and the economies of affected communities. However, potential future changes in regional storm activity over Eurasia have not been studied in detail. Therefore, in this study, we investigate anticipated changes in extratropical storm activity by the end of the century through a detailed examination of the historical and future emission scenarios from six different models from CMIP5. A statistical analysis of different parameters of storm activity using a storm identification and tracking algorithm reveals a decrease in the number of storms over mid-latitude regions. However, intense storms with longer duration are projected over high latitude Eurasia. A further examination of the physical mechanism for these changes reveals that a decrease in the meridional temperature gradient and a weakening of the vertical wind shear over the mid-latitudes are responsible for these expected changes in storm activity.

Description: Impacts of climate change relating to public health are often determined by multiple climate variables. The health-related metrics combining high-temperature and relative humidity are most concerned. Temperatures, relative humidity and relationship among them are investigated here for a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts over China. A projection of combined temperatures and humidity through the PRECIS model is addressed. The PRECIS model's skill in reproducing the historical climate over China was first gauged through validating its historical simulation with the observation dataset in terms of the two contributing variables. With good results of validation, a plausible range of combined temperatures and relative humidity were generated under RCPs. The results suggested that the annual mean temperature of China will increase up to 6 °C at the end of 21 st century. Opposite to the significantly change in the temperature, the maximum magnitude of changes in relative humidity is only 8% from the value in the baseline period. The dew point temperature is projected to be 14.9 °C (within the comfortable interval) over the whole nation under high radiative forcing scenario at the end of this century. Therefore, the combination effects of high-temperatures and relative humidity are substantially smaller than generally anticipated for China. Even though the impact-relevant metric like the dew point temperature is not projected as bad as the generally anticipated, we found that the frequency of high-temperature extremes increases up to 40% and the duration increases up to 150% in China. China is still expected to have more number of extremely hot days, more frequent high-temperature extremes, and longer duration of warm spell than before. Regionally, South China has the smallest changes in the mean, maximum and minimum temperatures while the largest increases in all five high-temperature indices. Consequently, the climate over South China for two future periods will be changing more drastically than the baseline period. Extra cautions need to be given to South China in the future.

Description: Record-breaking temperatures attract attention from the media, so understanding how and why the rate of record-breaking is changing may be useful in communicating the effects of climate change. A simple methodology designed for estimating the anthropogenic influence on rates of record-breaking in a given timeseries is proposed here. The frequency of hot and cold record-breaking temperature occurrences is shown to be changing due to the anthropogenic influence on the climate. Using ensembles of model simulations with and without human-induced forcings, it is demonstrated that the effect of climate change on global record-breaking temperatures can be detected as far back as the 1930s. On local scales, a climate change signal is detected more recently at most locations. The anthropogenic influence on the increased occurrence of hot record-breaking temperatures is clearer than it is for the decreased occurrence of cold records. The approach proposed here could be applied in rapid attribution studies of record extremes to quantify the influence of climate change on the rate of record-breaking in addition to the climate anomaly being studied. This application is demonstrated for the global temperature record of 2016 and the Central England temperature record in 2014.

Description: Climate observations are needed to address a large range of important societal issues including sea level rise, droughts, floods, extreme heat events, food security, and fresh water availability in the coming decades. Past, targeted investments in specific climate questions have resulted in tremendous improvements in issues important to human health, security, and infrastructure. However, the current climate observing system was not planned in a comprehensive, focused manner required to adequately address the full range of climate needs. A potential approach to planning the observing system of the future is presented in this paper. First, this paper proposes that priority be given to the most critical needs as identified within the World Climate Research Program as Grand Challenges. These currently include seven important topics: Melting Ice and Global Consequences; Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity; Carbon Feedbacks in the Climate System; Understanding and Predicting Weather and Climate Extremes; Water for the Food Baskets of the World; Regional Sea-Level Change and Coastal Impacts; and Near-term Climate Prediction. For each Grand Challenge, observations are needed for long-term monitoring, process studies and forecasting capabilities. Second, objective evaluations of proposed observing systems, including satellites, ground-based and in situ observations as well as potentially new, unidentified observational approaches, can quantify the ability to address these climate priorities. And third, investments in effective climate observations will be economically important as they will offer a magnified return on investment that justifies a far greater development of observations to serve society's needs.

Description: Thank you 2016 Earth's Future reviewers! As the journal completed its third full year in 2016 (in 2013 only one monthly issue was posted) I am pleased to report that submissions were up significantly. In 2016 we received 159 manuscripts, of which ~120 were sent for external review. The acceptance rate of the journal stayed around the 50% mark, reflecting the high expectations of our reviewers and editors.

Description: South-east Spain is a drought prone area, characterized by climate variability and water scarcity. The Jucar River Basin, located in Eastern Spain, has suffered many historical droughts with significant socio-economic impacts. For nearly a hundred years, the institutional and non-institutional strategies to cope with droughts have been successful through the development of institutions and partnerships for drought management including multiple actors. In this paper, we show how the creation and institutionalisation of Multi-Sector Partnerships has supported the development of an efficient drought management. Furthermore, we analyse the performance of one of the suggested instruments by the partnership related to drought management in the basin. Two methodologies are used for these purposes. On the one hand, the Capital Approach Framework to analyse the effectiveness of the governance processes in a particular partnership (Permanent Drought Commission), which aims to highlight the governance strength and weakness of the Multi-Sector Partnership for enhancing drought management in the Jucar River Basin. Through a dynamic analysis of the changes that the partnership has undergone over time to successfully deal with droughts, it is demonstrated its effectiveness on drought management. On the other hand, an econometric approach is used to analyse the economic efficiency of the emergency drought wells as one of the key drought mitigation measures suggested by the Permanent Drought Commission and implemented. The results demonstrate the potential and efficiency of applying drought wells as mitigation measures (significant reduction of economic losses, around 50 M€ during the drought period, 2005 to 2008).

Description: Massive near-term greenhouse gas emissions reduction is a precondition for staying “well below 2°C” global warming as envisaged by the Paris Agreement. Furthermore, extensive terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) through managed biomass growth and subsequent carbon capture and storage is required to avoid temperature “overshoot” in most pertinent scenarios. Here, we address two major issues: First, we calculate the extent of tCDR required to “repair” delayed or insufficient emissions reduction policies unable to prevent global mean temperature rise of 2.5°C or even 4.5°C above pre-industrial level. Our results show that those tCDR measures are unable to counteract “business-as-usual” emissions without eliminating virtually all natural ecosystems. Even if considerable (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 [RCP4.5]) emissions reductions are assumed, tCDR with 50% storage efficiency requires 〉1.1 Gha of the most productive agricultural areas or the elimination of 〉50% of natural forests. In addition, 〉100 MtN/yr fertilizers would be needed to remove the roughly 320 GtC foreseen in these scenarios. Such interventions would severely compromise food production and/or biosphere functioning. Second, we reanalyze the requirements for achieving the 160–190 GtC tCDR that would complement strong mitigation action (RCP2.6) in order to avoid 2°C overshoot anytime. We find that a combination of high irrigation water input and/or more efficient conversion to stored carbon is necessary. In the face of severe trade-offs with society and the biosphere, we conclude that large-scale tCDR is not a viable alternative to aggressive emissions reduction. However, we argue that tCDR might serve as a valuable “supporting actor” for strong mitigation if sustainable schemes are established immediately.

Description: Year-to-year variations in crop yields can have major impacts on the livelihoods of subsistence farmers and may trigger significant global price fluctuations, with severe consequences for people in developing countries. Fluctuations can be induced by weather conditions, management decisions, weeds, diseases, and pests. Although an explicit quantification and deeper understanding of weather-induced crop-yield variability is essential for adaptation strategies, so far it has only been addressed by empirical models. Here we provide conservative estimates of the fraction of reported national yield variabilities that can be attributed to weather by state-of-the-art, process-based crop model simulations. We find that observed weather variations can explain more than 50% of the variability in wheat yields in Australia, Canada, Spain, Hungary, and Romania. For maize, weather sensitivities exceed 50% in seven countries, including the US. The explained variance exceeds 50% for rice in Japan and South Korea and for soy in Argentina. Avoiding water stress by simulating yields assuming full irrigation shows that water limitation is a major driver of the observed variations in most of these countries. Identifying the mechanisms leading to crop-yield fluctuations is not only fundamental for dampening fluctuations, but is also important in the context of the debate on the attribution of loss and damage to climate change. Since process-based crop models not only account for weather influences on crop yields, but also represent human-management measures, they could become essential tools for differentiating these drivers, and for exploring options to reduce future yield fluctuations.

Description: This paper presents one of the first quantitative scenario assessments for future water supply and demand in Asia to 2050. The assessment, developed by the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative, uses the latest set of global climate change and socioeconomic scenarios and state-of-the-art global hydrological models. In Asia, water demand for irrigation, industry and households is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades (30-40% by 2050 compared to 2010). These changes are expected to exacerbate water stress, especially in the current hotspots such as north India and Pakistan, and north China. By 2050, 20% of the land area in the Asia-Pacific region, with a population of 1.6-2 billion, is projected to experience severe water stress. We find that socioeconomic changes are the main drivers of worsening water scarcity in Asia, with climate change impacts further increasing the challenge into the 21 st century. Moreover, a detailed basin-level analysis of the hydro-economic conditions of 40 Asian basins shows that although the coping capacity of all basins is expected to improve due to GDP growth, some basins continuously face severe water challenges. These basins will potentially be home to up to 1.6 billion people by mid-21 st century.

Description: ABSTRACT Recent USGS water use report suggests that increasing water-use efficiency could mitigate the supply-and-demand imbalance arising from changing climate and growing population. However, this rich data has not been analyzed to understand the underlying patterns, nor have been investigated to identify the factors contributing to this increased efficiency. A national-scale synthesis of public supply withdrawals (“withdrawals”) reveals a strong North–south gradient in public supply water use with the increasing population in the South contributing to increased withdrawal. Contrastingly, a reverse South–north gradient exists in per-capita withdrawals (“efficiency”), with northern states consistently improving the efficiency, while the southern states’ efficiency declined. Our analyses of spatial patterns of per-capita withdrawals further demonstrate that urban counties exhibit improved efficiency over rural counties. Improved efficiency is also demonstrated over high-income and well-educated counties. Given the potential implications of the findings in developing long-term water conservation measures (i.e., increasing block rates), we argue the need for frequent updates, perhaps monthly to annual, of water use data for identifying effective strategies that control the water-use efficiency in various geographic settings under a changing climate.

Description: Future extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along European coasts will be strongly impacted by global warming. Yet, comprehensive projections of ESL that include mean sea level (MSL), tides, waves, and storm surges do not exist. Here, we show changes in all components of ESLs until 2100 in view of climate change. We find that by the end of this century, the 100-year ESL along Europe's coastlines is on average projected to increase by 57 cm for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 and 81 cm for RCP8.5. The North Sea region is projected to face the highest increase in ESLs, amounting to nearly 1 m under RCP8.5 by 2100, followed by the Baltic Sea and Atlantic coasts of the UK and Ireland. Relative sea level rise (RSLR) is shown to be the main driver of the projected rise in ESL, with increasing dominance toward the end of the century and for the high-concentration pathway. Changes in storm surges and waves enhance the effects of RSLR along the majority of northern European coasts, locally with contributions up to 40%. In southern Europe, episodic extreme events tend to stay stable, except along the Portuguese coast and the Gulf of Cadiz where reductions in surge and wave extremes offset RSLR by 20–30%. By the end of this century, 5 million Europeans currently under threat of a 100-year ESL could be annually at risk from coastal flooding under high-end warming. The presented dataset is available through this link: http://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/collection/LISCOAST . Plain Language Summary Future extreme sea levels and flood risk along European coasts will be strongly impacted by global warming. Here, we show changes in all acting components, i.e., sea level rise, tides, waves, and storm surges, until 2100 in view of climate change. We find that by the end of this century the 100-year event along Europe will on average increase between 57 and 81 cm. The North Sea region is projected to face the highest increase, amounting to nearly 1 m under a high emission scenario by 2100, followed by the Baltic Sea and Atlantic coasts of the UK and Ireland. Sea level rise is the main driver of the changes, but intensified climate extremes along most of northern Europe can have significant local effects. Little changes in climate extremes are shown along southern Europe, with the exception of a projected decrease along the Portuguese coast and the Gulf of Cadiz, offseting sea level rise by 20–30%. By the end of this century, 5 million Europeans currently under threat of a 100-year coastal flood event could be annually at risk from coastal flooding under high-end warming.

Description: We present maize production in sub-Saharan Africa as a case study in the exploration of how uncertainties in global climate change, as reflected in projections from a range of climate model ensembles, influence climate impact assessments for agriculture. The crop model AquaCrop-OS (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) was modified to run on a 2x2 degree grid and coupled to 122 climate model projections from multi-model ensembles for three emission scenarios (CMIP3 SRES A1B and CMIP5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) as well as two ‘within-model’ ensembles (NCAR CCSM3 and ECHAM5 MPI-OM) designed to capture internal variability (i.e., uncertainty due to chaos in the climate system). In spite of high uncertainty, most notably in the high-producing semiarid zones, we observed robust regional and sub-regional trends across all ensembles. In agreement with previous work, we project widespread yield losses in the Sahel region and Southern Africa, resilience in Central Africa, and sub-regional increases in East Africa and at the southern tip of the continent. Spatial patterns of yield losses corresponded with spatial patterns of aridity increases, which were explicitly evaluated. Internal variability was a major source of uncertainty in both within-model and between-model ensembles and explained the majority of the spatial distribution of uncertainty in yield projections. Projected climate change impacts on maize production in different regions and nations ranged from near-zero or positive (upper quartile estimates) to substantially negative (lower quartile estimates), highlighting a need for risk management strategies that are adaptive and robust to uncertainty.

Description: ‘Bottom-up’ field-based, crop-hydrological models are used to estimate food production and irrigation water extractions under multiple scenarios of water and nitrogen use and crop yield improvement from 2010 to 2050 for 19 countries. The results show: (1) a food deficit before 2050 under a worst case climate change scenario in terms of annual crop yield improvement; (2) substantial water deficits, as a result of irrigation, for major food-producing countries that will prevent these nations from meeting their domestic food requirements in the absence of investments in water infrastructure or food imports; and (3) a plateau in terms of crop food production associated with increased water extractions given no further increase in the current area of irrigated agriculture. Possible pathways to respond to the tensions in the food-water nexus are evaluated and include: (1) Higher water productivity; (2) Food trade; (3) Improvements in both crop yield and ‘sustainable’ Total Factor Productivity (TFP); (4) Greater investment in water infrastructure; and (5) Integrative policies and decision processes. Without a combination of some, or all, of these possible pathways, appropriately adapted to bio-physical and socio-economic circumstances, the world faces grave risks in food and water security out to 2050.

Description: Estimating the current risk of coastal flooding requires adequate information on extreme sea levels. For over a decade, the only global data available was the DINAS-COAST Extreme Sea Levels (DCESL) dataset, which applies a static approximation to estimate extreme sea levels. Recently, a dynamically derived dataset was developed: the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset. Here, we compare the two datasets. The differences between DCESL and GTSR are generally larger than the confidence intervals of GTSR. Compared to observed extremes, DCESL generally overestimates extremes with a mean bias of 0.6 m. With a mean bias of −0.2 m GTSR generally underestimates extremes, particularly in the tropics. The DIVA model is applied to calculate the present-day flood exposure in terms of the land area and the population below the 1 in 100-year sea levels. Global exposed population and is 28% lower when based on GTSR instead of DCESL. Considering the limited data available at the time, DCESL provides a good estimate of the spatial variation in extremes around the world. However, GTSR allows for an improved assessment of the impacts of coastal floods, including confidence bounds. We further improve the assessment of coastal impacts by correcting for the conflicting vertical datum of sea level extremes and land elevation, which has not been accounted for in previous global assessments. Converting the extreme sea levels to the same vertical reference used for the elevation data is shown to be a critical step resulting in 39-59% higher estimate of population exposure.

Description: The cryosphere in mountain regions is rapidly declining, a trend that is expected to accelerate over the next several decades due to anthropogenic climate change. A cascade of effects will result, extending from mountains to lowlands with associated impacts on human livelihood, economy, and ecosystems. With rising air temperatures and increased radiative forcing, glaciers will become smaller and, in some cases, disappear, the area of frozen ground will diminish, the ratio of snow to rainfall will decrease, and the timing and magnitude of both maximum and minimum streamflow will change. These changes will affect erosion rates, sediment, and nutrient flux, and the biogeochemistry of rivers and proglacial lakes, all of which influence water quality, aquatic habitat, and biotic communities. Changes in the length of the growing season will allow low-elevation plants and animals to expand their ranges upward. Slope failures due to thawing alpine permafrost, and outburst floods from glacier- and moraine-dammed lakes will threaten downstream populations. Societies even well beyond the mountains depend on meltwater from glaciers and snow for drinking water supplies, irrigation, mining, hydropower, agriculture, and recreation. Here, we review and, where possible, quantify the impacts of anticipated climate change on the alpine cryosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere, and consider the implications for adaptation to a future of mountains without permanent snow and ice.

Description: Most of the Earth System Models (ESMs) project increases in net primary productivity (NPP) and terrestrial carbon (C) storage during the 21 st century. Despite empirical evidence that limited availability of phosphorus (P) may limit the response of NPP to increasing atmospheric CO 2 , none of the ESMs used in the previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment accounted for P limitation. We diagnosed from ESM simulations the amount of P need to support increases in carbon uptake by natural ecosystems using two approaches: the demand derived from (a) changes in C stocks and (b) changes in NPP. The C stock-based additional P demand was estimated to range between −31 and 193 Tg P and between −89 and 262 Tg P for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively, with negative values indicating a P surplus. The NPP-based demand, which takes ecosystem P recycling into account, results in a significantly higher P demand of 648 ~ 1606 Tg P for RCP2.6 and 924 ~ 2110 Tg P for RCP8.5. We found that the P demand is sensitive to the turnover of P in decomposing plant material, explaining the large differences between the NPP-based demand and C stock-based demand. The discrepancy between diagnosed P demand and actual P availability (potential P deficit) depends mainly on the assumptions about availability of the different soil P forms. Overall, future P limitation strongly depends on both soil P availability and P recycling on ecosystem scale.

Description: The highest mountain peaks on Hawaii Island are snow covered for part of almost every year. This snow has esthetic and recreational value as well as cultural significance for residents and visitors. Thus far there have been almost no systematic observations of snowfall, snow cover or snow depth in Hawaii. Here we use satellite observations to construct a daily index of Hawaii Island snow cover starting from 2000. The seasonal mean of our index displays large interannual variations that are correlated with the seasonal mean freezing level and frequency of trade wind inversions as determined from nearby balloon soundings. Our snow cover index provides a diagnostic for monitoring climate variability and trends within the extensive area of the globe dominated by the North Pacific trade wind meteorological regime. We have also conducted simulations of the Hawaii climate with a regional atmospheric model. Retrospective simulations for 1990-2015 were run with boundary conditions prescribed from gridded observational analyses. Simulations for the end of 21 st century employed boundary conditions based on global climate model projections that included standard scenarios for anticipated anthropogenic climate forcing. The future projections indicate that snowfall will nearly disappear by the end of the current century.

Description: We investigated the feasibilities of 2.0 and 1.5 C climate targets by considering the abatement potentials of a full suite of greenhouse gases, pollutants, and aerosols. We revised the intertemporal dynamic optimization model DICE-2013R by introducing three features as follows. First, we applied a new marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve derived under moderate assumptions regarding future socioeconomic development - the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 (SSP2) scenario. Second, we addressed emission abatement for not only industrial CO2 but also land-use CO2, CH4, N2O, halogenated gases, CO, volatile organic compounds (VOC), SOx, NOx, black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC). Third, we improved the treatment of the non-CO2 components in the climate module based on MAGICC 6.0. We obtained the following findings: 1) It is important to address the individual emissions in an analysis of low stabilization scenarios because abating land-use CO2, non-CO2 and aerosol emissions also contributes to maintaining a low level of radiative forcing and substantially affects the climate costs. 2) The 2.0 C target can be efficiently reached under the assumptions of the SSP2 scenario. 3) The 1.5 C target can be met with early deep cuts under the assumption of a temperature overshoot, and it will triple the carbon price and double the mitigation cost compared with the 2.0 C case.

Description: The changing Arctic sea ice cover is likely to impact the trans-border exchange of sea ice between the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of the Arctic nations, affecting the risk of ice-rafted contamination. We apply the Lagrangian Ice Tracking System (LITS) to identify sea ice formation events and track sea ice to its melt locations. Most ice (52%) melts within 100 km of where it is formed; circa 21% escapes from its EEZ. Thus most contaminants will be released within an ice parcel's originating EEZ, while over 1,000,000 km 2 of ice—an area larger than France and Germany combined, to other nations’ waters. Between the periods 1988–1999 and 2000–2014, sea ice formation increased by ~17% (roughly 6 million km 2 vs 5 million km 2 annually). Melting peaks earlier; freeze-up begins later; and the central Arctic Ocean is more prominent in both formation and melt in the later period. The total area of ice transported between EEZs increased, while transit times decreased: for example, Russian ice reached melt locations in other nations’ EEZs an average of 46% faster while North American ice reached destinations in Eurasian waters an average of 37% faster. Increased trans-border exchange is mainly a result of increased speed (~14% per decade), allowing first year ice to escape the summer melt front, even as the front extends further north. Increased trans-border exchange over shorter times is bringing the EEZs of the Arctic nations closer together, which should be taken into account in policy development—including establishment of marine protected areas.

Description: The water footprint for fossil fuels typically accounts for water utilized in mining and fuel processing, whereas the water footprint of biofuels assesses the agricultural water used by crops through their lifetime. Fossil fuels have an additional water footprint that is not easily accounted for: ancient water that was used by plants millions of years ago, before they were transformed into fossil fuel. How much water is mankind using from the past to sustain current energy needs? We evaluate the link between ancient water virtually embodied in fossil fuels to current global energy demands by determining the water demand required to replace fossil fuels with biomass produced with water from the present. Using equal energy units of wood, bioethanol, and biodiesel to replace coal, natural gas, and crude oil, respectively, the resulting water demand is 7.39 × 10 13 m 3 y −1 , approximately the same as the total annual evaporation from all land masses and transpiration from all terrestrial vegetation. Thus, there are strong hydrologic constraints to a reliance on biofuel energy produced with water from the present because the conversion from fossil fuels to biofuels would have a disproportionate and unsustainable impact on the modern water. By using fossil fuels to meet today's energy needs, we are virtually using water from a geological past. The water cycle is insufficient to sustain the production of the fuel presently consumed by human societies. Thus, non-fuel based renewable energy sources are needed to decrease mankind's reliance on fossil fuel energy without placing an overwhelming pressure on global freshwater resources.

Description: In this paper, we focus on stratospheric sulfate injection as a geoengineering scheme, and provide a combined scientific and ethical analysis of climate response tests, which are a subset of outdoor tests that would seek to impose detectable and attributable changes to climate variables on global or regional scales. We assess the current state of scientific understanding on the plausibility and scalability of climate response tests. Then we delineate a minimal baseline against which to consider whether certain climate response tests would be relevant for a deployment scenario. Our analysis shows that some climate response tests, such as those attempting to detect changes in regional climate impacts, may not be deployable in time periods relevant to realistic geoengineering scenarios. This might pose significant challenges for justifying SSI deployment overall. We then outline some of the major ethical challenges proposed climate response tests would face to be considered properly socially licensed forms of research. We consider what levels of confidence would be required to ethically justify approving a proposed test; whether the consequences of tests are subject to similar questions of justice, compensation and informed consent as full scale deployment; and whether questions of intent and hubris are morally relevant for climate response tests. We suggest further research into laboratory-based work and modeling may help to narrow the scientific uncertainties related to climate response tests, and help inform future ethical debate. However, even if such work is pursued, the ethical issues raised by proposed climate response tests are significant and manifold.

Description: Nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition are much mitigated over the conterminous US (CONUS) but deposition exceedance still exists on forest soil. In addition, the empirical approach is usually used but only provides a spatially constant critical load (CL). Therefore, the CL derived from steady-state mass balance equation is used to study the CL exceedance on forest soil over the CONUS. The multi-model mean (MMM) of global climate-chemistry models in 2000s indicates that total (wet + dry) N deposition alone over 10.32% of forest soil exceeds the CL, but a higher percent (30.16%) is observed by the N + S deposition, which highlights the necessity of considering S deposition. In 2050s, less CL exceeded forest soil is projected and the exceedance amount is lower as well, mainly attributed to the strong reduction of projected NO X and SO 2 emissions. By firstly projecting the future CL due to the climate change, the CL exceedance could further decrease since the air temperature is projected to increase rapidly and lead to higher CL in the future. The CL exceedance by N deposition alone is likely to be dominated by NO y in 2000s but NH X in 2050s because of the enhanced NH 3 emission. Moreover, both in 2000s and 2050s, using the CL generated by different aggregation methods can cause up to 33 times difference between the corresponding CL exceedance. This suggests that several regions are under the marginal threat of either N or N + S deposition and different CL can influence the results significantly.

Description: Rapid urban development has been widespread in many arid regions of the world during the Anthropocene. Such development has the potential to affect, and be affected by, local and regional dunefield dynamics. While urban design often includes consideration of the wind regime, the potential impact of construction on the surrounding environment is seldom considered and remains poorly understood. In this study regional airflow modelling during successive stages of urbanization at Maspalomas, Gran Canaria, Spain, indicates significant and progressive flow perturbations that have altered the adjacent dunefield. Significant modifications to the boundary layer velocity, mean wind directionality, turbulence intensity, and sediment flux potential are attributed to the extension of the evolving urban geometry into the internal boundary layer (IBL). Two distinct process/response zones were identified: (1) the urban shadow zone where widespread dune stabilization is attributed to the sheltering effect of the urban area on surface wind velocity; and (2) the acceleration zone where airflow is deflected away from the urbanized area, causing an increase in sediment transport potential and surface erosion. Consistent coherent turbulent structures were identified at landform and dunefield scales: counter-rotating vortices develop in the lee-side flow of dune crests and shedding off the buildings on the downwind edge of the urban area. This study illustrates the direct geomorphic impact of urbanization on aeolian dunefield dynamics, a relationship that has received little previous attention. The study provides a template for investigations of the potential impact of urbanization in arid zones.

Description: There is a fundamental tension between population growth and carrying capacity, i.e., the population that could potentially be supported using the resources and technologies available at a given time. When population growth outpaces improvements in food production locally, food imports can avoid local limits and allow growth to continue. This import strategy is central to the debate on food security with continuing rapid growth of the world population. This highlights the importance of a quantitative global understanding of where the strategy is implemented, whether it has been successful, and what drivers are involved. We present an integrated quantitative analysis to answer these questions at sub-national and national scale for 1961–2009, focusing on water as the key limiting resource and accounting for resource and technology impacts on local carrying capacity. According to the sub-national estimates, food imports have nearly universally been used to overcome local limits to growth, affecting 3.0 billion people—81% of the population that is approaching or already exceeded local carrying capacity. This strategy is successful in 88% of the cases, being highly dependent on economic purchasing power. In the unsuccessful cases, increases in imports and local productivity have not kept pace with population growth, leaving 460 million people with insufficient food. Where the strategy has been successful, food security of 1.4 billion people has become dependent on imports. Whether or not this dependence on imports is considered desirable, it has policy implications that need to be taken into account.

Description: Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), set up to protect endangered species, are vulnerable to upstream impacts from land due to ocean circulation Particle-tracking simulations show the land connectivity of four major British MPAs and give a "connectivity footprint" at annual timescales Connectivity to land differs substantially between MPAs with strong seasonal/interannual variability showing the utility of the footprints Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are established to conserve important ecosystems and protect marine species threatened in the wider ocean. However, even MPAs in remote areas are not wholly isolated from anthropogenic impacts. “Upstream” activities, possibly thousands of kilometres away, can influence MPAs through ocean currents that determine their connectivity. Persistent pollutants, such as plastics, can be transported from neighbouring shelf regions to MPAs, or an ecosystem may be affected if larval dispersal is reduced from a seemingly remote upstream area. Thus, improved understanding of exactly where upstream is, and on what timescale it is connected, is important for protecting and monitoring MPAs. Here we use a high-resolution (1/12 ∘ ) ocean general circulation model and Lagrangian particle-tracking to diagnose the connectivity of four of the UK’s largest MPAs: Pitcairn; South Georgia & Sandwich Islands; Ascension; and the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT). We introduce the idea of a circulation “connectivity footprint”, by which MPAs are connected to upstream areas. Annual connectivity footprints were calculated for the four MPAs, taking into account seasonal and inter–annual variability. These footprints showed that, on annual timescales, Pitcairn was not connected with land, whereas there was increasing connectivity for waters reaching South Georgia, Ascension and, especially, BIOT. BIOT also had a high degree of both seasonal and inter–annual variability, which drastically changed its footprint, year–to–year. We advocate that such connectivity footprints are an inherent property of all MPAs, and need to be considered when MPAs are first proposed or their viability as refuges evaluated.

Description: Water scarcity has become a major constraint to socio-economic development and a threat to livelihood in increasing parts of the world. Since the late 1980s, water scarcity research has attracted much political and public attention. We here review a variety of indicators that have been developed to capture different characteristics of water scarcity. Population, water availability and water use are the key elements of these indicators. Most of the progress made in the last few decades has been on the quantification of water availability and use by applying spatially explicit models. However, challenges remain on appropriate incorporation of green water (soil moisture), water quality, environmental flow requirements, globalization and virtual water trade in water scarcity assessment. Meanwhile, inter- and intra- annual variability of water availability and use also calls for assessing the temporal dimension of water scarcity. It requires concerted efforts of hydrologists, economists, social scientists, and environmental scientists to develop integrated approaches to capture the multi-faceted nature of water scarcity.

Description: With its growing population, industrializing economy, and large coal reserves, India represents a critical unknown in global projections of future CO 2 emissions. Here, we assess proposed construction of coal-fired power plants in India and evaluate their implications for future emissions and energy production in the country. As of mid-2016, 243 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired generating capacity are under development in India, including 65 GW under construction and an additional 178 GW proposed. These under-development plants would increase the coal capacity of India's power sector by 123% and, when combined with the country's goal to produce at least 40% of its power from non-fossil sources by 2030, exceed the country's projected future electricity demand. The current proposals for new coal-fired plants could therefore either “strand” fossil energy assets (i.e. force them to retire early or else operate at very low capacity factors) and/or ensure that the goal is not met by “locking-out” new, low-carbon energy infrastructure. Similarly, future emissions from the proposed coal plants would also exceed the country's climate commitment to reduce its energy intensity 33 to 35% by 2030, which—when combined with the commitments of all other countries—is itself not yet ambitious enough to meet the international goal of holding warming well below 2 °C relative to the pre-industrial era.

Description: Ten years ago, Nobel laureate Paul Crutzen called for research into the possibility of reflecting sunlight away from Earth by injecting sulfur particles into the stratosphere. Across academic disciplines, Crutzen's intervention caused a surge in interest in and research on proposals for what is often referred to as “geoengineering” - an unbounded set of heterogeneous proposals for intentionally intervening into the climate system to reduce the risks of climate change. To mark the 10 year anniversary of the publication of Paul Crutzen's seminal essay, this special issue reviews the developments in geoengineering research since Crutzen's intervention and reflects upon possible future directions that geoengineering research may take. In this introduction, we briefly outline the arguments made in Paul Crutzen's 2006 contribution and describe the key developments of the past 10 years. We then proceed to give an overview of some of the central issues in current discussions on geoengineering, and situate the contributions to this special issue within them. In particular, we contend that geoengineering research is characterized by an orientation toward speculative futures that fundamentally shapes how geoengineering is entering the collective imagination of scientists, policymakers, and publics, and a mode of knowledge production that recognizes the risks which may result from new knowledge and that struggles with its own socio-political dimensions.

Description: It is a matter of public consensus that China's high growth rate has been achieved at the expense of natural resources and the environment, leading to serious risks to sustainability. This research, which proposes a theoretical model to forewarn of risks to regional developmental sustainability in China, constitutes the first empirical evaluation of this to be undertaken there. The results show that: (a) the areas at risk cover almost 43 percent of the land and 44 percent of the population of mainland China. In those areas, 83.56 percent of people at risk are threatened by the low carrying capacity of the environment and limited water resources. (b) With 70 percent of the total population living in “at risk” areas, urbanization zones remain as the primary category suffering from overload across China. Extensive industrialization has resulted in environmental pollution, which contributes the most to the forewarning status, while the secondary cause is found to be the special coupling of the scarcity of natural water resources and their inefficient use. In addition, most urban conglomerations suffer from pollution by industrial production and household consumption, which tends to extend to their surrounding agricultural areas. Extensive mineral exploitation in ecologically fragile areas has made them increasingly more vulnerable to disturbances from their neighboring resource-driven urban areas. The paper uses these findings to suggest how to intensify the special regulatory administration of resources and the environment, and to transform approaches to industrialization, in order to address sustainable development issues in developing countries.

Description: Glacier hypsometry provides a first-order approach for assessing a glacier's response to climate forcings. We couple the Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI) to a suite of in situ observations and climate model output to examine potential change for the ~27,000 glaciers in Alaska and northwest Canada through the end of the 21 st century. By 2100, based on RCP 4.5 to 8.5 forcings, summer temperatures are predicted to increase between +2.1 and +4.6  ° C, while solid precipitation (snow) is predicted to decrease by −6 to −11 %, despite a +9 to +21% increase in total precipitation. Snow is predicted to undergo a pronounced decrease in the fall, shifting the start of the accumulation season back by ~1 month. In response to these forcings, the regional equilibrium line altitude (ELA) may increase by +105 to +225 m by 2100. The sensitivity to this increase is highly variable, with the most substantive impact for glaciers with either limited elevation ranges (often small (〈1 km 2 ) glaciers, which account for 80% of glaciers in the region) or those with top-heavy geometries, like icefields. For more than 20% of glaciers, future ELAs, given RCP 6.0 forcings, will exceed the maximum elevation of the glacier, resulting in their eventual demise, while for others, accumulation area ratios (AAR) will decrease by 〉60%. Our results highlight the first-order control of glacier hypsometry on individual glacier response to climate change, and the variability that hypsometry introduces to a regional response to a coherent climate perturbation.

Description: Mechanisms such as ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse may rapidly increase discharge from marine-based ice sheets. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sea-level projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) simulations incorporating these physical processes to explore their influence on global-mean sea-level (GMSL) and relative sea-level (RSL). We compare the new projections to past results using expert assessment and structured expert elicitation about AIS changes. Under high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5), median projected 21st century GMSL rise increases from 79 to 146 cm. Without protective measures, revised median RSL projections would by 2100 submerge land currently home to 153 million people, an increase of 44 million. The use of a physical model, rather than simple parameterizations assuming constant acceleration of ice loss, increases forcing sensitivity: overlap between the central 90% of simulations for 2100 for RCP 8.5 (93–243 cm) and RCP 2.6 (26–98 cm) is minimal. By 2300, the gap between median GMSL estimates for RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 reaches 〉10 m, with median RSL projections for RCP 8.5 jeopardizing land now occupied by 950 million people (vs. 167 million for RCP 2.6). The minimal correlation between the contribution of AIS to GMSL by 2050 and that in 2100 and beyond implies current sea-level observations cannot exclude future extreme outcomes. The sensitivity of post-2050 projections to deeply uncertain physics highlights the need for robust decision and adaptive management frameworks.

Description: While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling (IGSM) framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socio-economic changes on water availability for irrigation in the US as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climate change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socio-economic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e. cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of US irrigated areas, the overall reduction in US crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO 2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.

Description: The resource management and environmental policy literature focuses on devising regulations and incentive structures to achieve desirable goals. It often presumes the existence of public infrastructure that actualizes these incentives and regulations through a process loosely referred to as ‘governance.’ In many cases, it is not clear if and how such governance infrastructure can be created and supported. Here, we take a complex systems view in which ‘governance’ is an emergent phenomenon generated by interactions between social, economic, and environmental (both built and natural) factors. We present a framework and formal stylized model to explore under what circumstances stable governance structures may emerge endogenously in Coupled Infrastructure Systems comprising shared natural, social, and built infrastructures of which social ecological systems are specific examples. The model allows us to derive general conditions for a sustainable coupled infrastructure system in which critical infrastructure (e.g., canals) is provided by a governing entity that enables resource users (e.g., farmers) to produce outputs from natural infrastructure (e.g., water) to meet their needs while supporting the governing entity.

Description: Our different kinds of minds and types of thinking affect the ways we decide, take action, and cooperate (or not). Derived from these types of minds, innate biases, beliefs, heuristics and values (BBHV) influence behaviors, often beneficially, when individuals or small groups face immediate, local, acute situations that they and their ancestors faced repeatedly in the past. BBHV, though, need to be recognized and possibly countered or used when facing new, complex issues or situations especially if they need to be managed for the benefit of a wider community, for the longer-term and the larger-scale. Taking BBHV into account, we explain and provide a cyclic science-infused adaptive framework for (1) gaining knowledge of complex systems and (2) improving their management. We explore how this process and framework could improve the governance of science and policy for different types of systems and issues, providing examples in the area of natural resources, hazards, and the environment. Lastly, we suggest that an “Open Traceable Accountable Policy” initiative that followed our suggested adaptive framework could beneficially complement recent Open Data/Model science initiatives.

Description: Understanding the dynamics of salt movement in the soil is a prerequisite for devising appropriate management strategies for land productivity of coastal regions, especially low lying delta regions which support many millions of farmers around the world. At present there are no numerical models able to resolve soil salinity at regional scale and at daily time steps. In this research, we develop a novel holistic approach to simulate soil salinization comprising an emulator-based soil salt and water balance calculated at daily time steps. The method is demonstrated for the agriculture areas of Coastal Bangladesh (~20.000 km 2 ). This shows that we can reproduce the dynamics of soil salinity under multiple land uses, including rice crops, combined shrimp and rice farming, as well as non-rice crops. The model also reproduced well the observed spatial soil salinity for the year 2009. Using this approach, we have projected the soil salinity for three different climate ensembles, including relative sea-level rise for the year 2050. Projected soil salinity changes are significantly smaller than other reported projections. The results suggest that inter-season weather variability is a key driver of salinization of agriculture soils at coastal Bangladesh.

Description: Backbarrier saltmarshes are considered carbon sinks; however, barrier island transgression and the associated processes of erosion and overwash are typically not included in coastal carbon budgets. Here, we present a carbon-budget model for transgressive barrier islands that includes a dynamic carbon-storage term, driven by backbarrier-marsh width, and a carbon-export term, driven by ocean and backbarrier shoreline erosion. To examine the impacts of storms, human disturbances and the backbarrier setting of a transgressive barrier island on carbon budgets and reservoirs, the model was applied to sites at Core Banks and Onslow Beach, NC, U.S.A. Results show that shoreline erosion and burial of backbarrier marsh from washover deposition and dredge-spoil disposal temporarily transitioned each site into a net exporter (source) of carbon. The magnitude of the carbon reservoir was linked to the backbarrier setting of an island. Carbon reservoirs of study sites separated from the mainland by only backbarrier marsh (no lagoon) decreased for over a decade because carbon storage could not keep pace with erosion. With progressive narrowing of the backbarrier marsh, these barriers will begin to function more persistently as carbon sources until the reservoir is depleted at the point where the barrier welds with the mainland. Undeveloped barrier islands with wide lagoons are carbon sources briefly during erosive periods; however, at century time scales are net carbon importers (sinks) because new marsh habitat can form during barrier rollover. Human development on backbarrier saltmarsh serves to reduce the carbon storage capacity and can hasten the transition of an island from a sink to a source.

Description: We report on a regional flood and earthquake risk assessment for 33 countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Flood and earthquake risk were defined in terms of affected population and affected gross domestic product (GDP). Earthquake risk was also quantified in terms of fatalities and capital loss. Estimates of future population and GDP affected by earthquakes vary significantly among five shared socioeconomic pathways used to represent population and GDP in 2030 and 2080. There is a linear relationship between the future relative change in a nation’s exposure (population or GDP) and its future relative change in annual average population or GDP affected by earthquakes. The evolution of flood hazard was quantified using a flood model with boundary conditions derived from five different general circulation models and two representative concentration pathways, and changes in population and GDP were quantified using two shared socioeconomic pathways. There is a nonlinear relationship between the future relative change in a nation’s exposure (population or GDP) and its future relative change in its annual average population or GDP affected by floods. Six regions can be defined for positive and negative relative change in population that designate whether climate change can temper, counter, or reinforce relative changes in flood risk produced by changes in population or exposure. The departure from the one-to-one relationship between a relative change in a nation’s population or GDP and its relative change in flood risk could be used to inform further efforts at flood mitigation and adaptation.

Description: The Critical Zone (CZ) includes the biophysical processes occurring from the top of the vegetation canopy to the weathering zone below the groundwater table. CZ services provide a measure for the goods and benefits derived from CZ processes. In intensively managed landscapes, cropland is altered through anthropogenic energy inputs to derive more productivity, as agricultural products, than would be possible under natural conditions. However, the actual costs of alterations to CZ functions within landscape profiles are unknown. Through comparisons of corn feed and corn-based ethanol, we show that valuation of these CZ services in monetary terms provides a more concrete tool for characterizing seemingly abstract environmental damages from agricultural production systems. Multiple models are combined to simulate the movement of nutrients throughout the soil system, enabling the measurement of agricultural anthropogenic impacts to the CZ's regulating services. Results indicate water quality and atmospheric stabilizing services, measured by soil carbon storage, carbon respiration, and nitrate leaching, among others, can cost more than double that of emissions estimated in previous studies. Energy efficiency in addition to environmental impact is assessed to demonstrate how the inclusion of CZ services is necessary in accounting for the entire life cycle of agricultural production systems. These results conclude that feed production systems are more energy efficient and less environmentally costly than corn-based ethanol.

Description: As land-based mineral resources become increasingly difficult and expensive to acquire, the potential for mining resources from the deep seafloor has become widely discussed and debated. Exploration leases are being granted, and technologies are under development. However, the quantity and quality of the resources are uncertain, and many worry about risks to vulnerable deep-sea ecosystems. Deep-sea mining has become part of the discussion of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. We provide in this article a summary of benefits, costs, and uncertainties that surround this potentially attractive but contentious topic. Index Terms [6300 Policy Sciences] 6309 Decision making under uncertainty; 6304 Benefit-cost analysis; [4300 Natural Hazards] 4323 Human impact; 4330 Vulnerability; 4329 Sustainable development;

Description: Anthropogenic aerosol impacts on clouds constitute the largest source of uncertainty in quantifying the radiative forcing of climate, and hinders our ability to determine Earth's climate sensitivity to greenhouse gas increases. Representation of aerosol-cloud interactions in global models is particularly challenging because these interactions occur on typically unresolved scales. Observational studies show influences of aerosol on clouds, but correlations between aerosol and clouds are insufficient to constrain aerosol forcing because of the difficulty in separating aerosol and meteorological impacts. In this commentary, we argue that this current impasse may be overcome with the development of approaches to conduct control experiments whereby aerosol particle perturbations can be introduced into patches of marine low clouds in a systematic manner. Such cloud perturbation experiments constitute a fresh approach to climate science and would provide unprecedented data to untangle the effects of aerosol particles on cloud microphysics and the resulting reflection of solar radiation by clouds. The control experiments would provide a critical test of high-resolution models that are used to develop an improved representation aerosol-cloud interactions needed to better constrain aerosol forcing in global climate models.

Description: Science on the role of anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events, such as heatwaves or droughts, has evolved rapidly in the past years. The approach of “event attribution” compares the occurrence-probability of an event in the present, factual, climate with its probability in a hypothetical, counterfactual, climate without human-induced climate change. Several methods can be used for event attribution, based on climate model simulations and observations, and usually researchers only assess a subset of methods and data sources. Here, we explore the role of methodological choices for the attribution of the 2015 meteorological summer drought in Europe. We present contradicting conclusions on the relevance of human influence as a function of the chosen data source and event attribution methodology. Assessments using the maximum number of models and counterfactual climates with pre-industrial greenhouse gas concentrations point to an enhanced drought risk in Europe. However, other evaluations show contradictory evidence. These results highlight the need for a multi-model and multi-method framework in event attribution research, especially for events with a low signal-to-noise ratio and high model dependency such as regional droughts.

Description: Future sea-level rise drives severe risks for many coastal communities. Strategies to manage these risks hinge on a sound characterization of the uncertainties. For example, recent studies suggest that large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) may rapidly disintegrate in response to rising global temperatures, leading to potentially several meters of sea-level rise during the next few centuries. It is deeply uncertain, for example, whether such an AIS disintegration will be triggered, how much this would increase sea-level rise, whether extreme storm surges intensify in a warming climate, or which emissions pathway future societies will choose. Here, we assess the impacts of these deep uncertainties on projected flooding probabilities for a levee ring in New Orleans, Louisiana. We use 18 scenarios, presenting probabilistic projections within each one, to sample key deeply uncertain future projections of sea-level rise, radiative forcing pathways, storm surge characterization, and contributions from rapid AIS mass loss. The implications of these deep uncertainties for projected flood risk are thus characterized by a set of 18 probability distribution functions. We use a global sensitivity analysis to assess which mechanisms contribute to uncertainty in projected flood risk over the course of a 50-year design life. In line with previous work, we find that the uncertain storm surge drives the most substantial risk, followed by general AIS dynamics, in our simple model for future flood risk for New Orleans.

Description: Solving the problems of global warming, air pollution, and energy security requires a massive effort by individuals, communities, businesses, nonprofits, and policy makers around the world. The first step in that process is to have a plan. To that end, roadmaps to transition 139 countries of the world to 100% clean, renewable wind, water, and solar power for all energy purposes (electricity, transportation, heating, cooling, industry, agriculture, forestry, and fishing) by 2050, with 80% by 2030, have been developed. The evolution, characteristics, and impacts to date of these plans are briefly described.

Description: The cumulative cost of frequent events (e.g., nuisance floods) over time may exceed the costs of the extreme but infrequent events for which societies typically prepare. Here we analyze the likelihood of exceedances above mean higher high water and the corresponding property value exposure for minor, major and extreme coastal floods. Our results suggest that, in response to sea-level rise, nuisance flooding could generate property value exposure comparable to, or larger than, extreme events. Determining whether (and when) low cost, nuisance incidents aggregate into high cost impacts and deciding when to invest in preventive measures are amongst the most difficult decisions for policy-makers. It would be unfortunate if efforts to protect societies from extreme events (e.g., 0.01 annual probability) left them exposed to a cumulative hazard with enormous costs. We propose a Cumulative Hazard Index ( CHI ) as a tool for framing the future cumulative impact of low cost incidents relative to infrequent extreme events. CHI suggests that in New York, NY, Washington, DC, Miami, FL, San Francisco, CA and Seattle, WA, a careful consideration of socio-economic impacts of nuisance flooding for prioritization is crucial for sustainable coastal flood risk management.

Description: Due to climate change, rising temperature around the world will have a great potential to influence the global hydrologic cycle, thus leading to substantial changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation. In this study, the effects of global warming on the regional hydrologic cycle, particularly on the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation, over China are investigated through a high-resolution regional climate ensemble. In detail, the PRECIS regional climate modeling system is employed to simulate the regional climate over China from 1950 to 2099 with a fine resolution of 25 km, driven by the boundary conditions from a four-member HadCM3-based perturbed-physics ensemble (i.e., HadCM3Q0, Q1, Q7, and Q13) and the ECHAM5 model. Historical simulations of the PRECIS ensemble are first compared to the observations to validate its performance in capturing both the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation. The comparisons show that the PRECIS ensemble is likely to overestimate precipitation in the south and exhibits slight dry biases in the northwest and southeast coasts of China. The projections from the PRECIS ensemble for future periods (i.e., 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) are then analyzed to help understand how the regional characteristics of precipitation will be affected in the context of global warming. It is shown that the annual mean precipitation over China is likely to increase throughout the 21 st century (i.e., by 0.078 mm/day in 2020s, 0.218 mm/day in 2050s, and 0.360 mm/day in 2080s). This may suggest that the rising temperature due to climate change will intensify the regional hydrologic cycles in China. However, apparent spatial and temporal variations are also reported in the projected precipitations from the PRECIS ensemble. For example, bigger changes in precipitation are usually observed in summer; projected precipitation changes in the southeast are apparently higher than other regions. In addition, the results show that the fluctuation range of the ensemble simulations will increase with time periods from 2020s to 2080s, indicating that the longer the projecting periods, the more uncertain the projections will be.

Description: Future increases in flooding potential around the world's coastlines from extreme sea level events is heavily dependent on projections of future Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) rise. Yet the two main approaches for projecting 21 st century GMSL rise – i.e., process-based versus semi-empirical – give inconsistent results. Here, a novel hybrid approach to GMSL projection, containing a process-based thermosteric contribution and a semi-empirical ice-melt contribution, is embedded within a conceptual Earth System Model (ESM). The ESM is run 10 million times with random perturbations to multiple parameters, and future projections are made only from the simulations that are historically consistent. The projections from our hybrid approach are found to be consistent with the dominant process-based GMSL projections from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble, in that our future ensemble-mean projections lie within ±2 cm of CMIP5 for the end of the 21 st century when CMIP5 simulated histories are used to constrain our approach. However, when observations are used to provide the historic constraints for our hybrid approach, we find higher ice-melt sensitivity and additional ensemble-mean GMSL rise of around 13 to 16 cm by the end of the century. We assess the impact of this additional GMSL rise, projected from observation-consistency, on the increase in frequency of extreme sea level events for 220 coastal tide-gauge sites. Accounting for regional effects, we infer a 1.5 to 8 times increase in the frequency of extreme sea-level events for our higher GMSL projections relative to CMIP5. AGU Index terms: 1622, 1641, 1630, 4556.

Description: The rapid loss of sea ice in the Arctic is one of the most striking manifestations of climate change. As sea ice melts, more open water is exposed to solar radiation, absorbing heat and generating a sea-ice–albedo feedback that reinforces Arctic warming. Recent studies stress the significance of this feedback mechanism and suggest that ice-free summer conditions in the Arctic Ocean may occur faster than previously expected, even under low-emissions pathways. Here we use an integrated assessment model to explore the implications of a potentially rapid sea-ice-loss process. We consider a scenario leading to a full month free of sea ice in September 2050, followed by three potential trajectories afterward: partial recovery, stabilization, and continued loss of sea ice. We analyze how these scenarios affect the efforts to keep global temperature increase below 2°C. Our results show that sea-ice melting in the Arctic requires more stringent mitigation efforts globally. We find that global CO 2 emissions would need to reach zero levels 5–15 years earlier and that the carbon budget would need to be reduced by 20%–51% to offset this additional source of warming. The extra mitigation effort would imply an 18%–59% higher mitigation cost to society. Our results also show that to achieve the 1.5°C target in the presence of ice-free summers negative emissions would be needed. This study highlights the need for a better understanding of how the rapid changes observed in the Arctic may impact our society.