ALBERT

Description: With its growing population, industrializing economy, and large coal reserves, India represents a critical unknown in global projections of future CO 2 emissions. Here, we assess proposed construction of coal-fired power plants in India and evaluate their implications for future emissions and energy production in the country. As of mid-2016, 243 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired generating capacity are under development in India, including 65 GW under construction and an additional 178 GW proposed. These under-development plants would increase the coal capacity of India's power sector by 123% and, when combined with the country's goal to produce at least 40% of its power from non-fossil sources by 2030, exceed the country's projected future electricity demand. The current proposals for new coal-fired plants could therefore either “strand” fossil energy assets (i.e. force them to retire early or else operate at very low capacity factors) and/or ensure that the goal is not met by “locking-out” new, low-carbon energy infrastructure. Similarly, future emissions from the proposed coal plants would also exceed the country's climate commitment to reduce its energy intensity 33 to 35% by 2030, which—when combined with the commitments of all other countries—is itself not yet ambitious enough to meet the international goal of holding warming well below 2 °C relative to the pre-industrial era.