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Neotectonics and long-term seismicity in Europe and the Mediterranean region (2015)

Carafa, M. M. C. ; Barba, S. ; Bird, P.

American Geophysical Union

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Publikationsdatum: 2021-01-04

Beschreibung: We present a neotectonic model of ongoing lithosphere deformation and a corresponding estimate of long-term shallow seismicity across the Africa-Eurasia plate boundary, including the eastern Atlantic, Mediterranean region, and continental Europe. GPS and stress data are absent or inadequate for the part of the study area covered by water. Thus, we opt for a dynamic model based on the stress-equilibrium equation; this approach allows us to estimate the long-term behavior of the lithosphere (given certain assumptions about its structure and physics) for both land and sea areas. We first update the existing plate model by adding five quasi-rigid plates (the Ionian Sea, Adria, Northern Greece, Central Greece, and Marmara) to constrain the deformation pattern of the study area. We use the most recent datasets to estimate the lithospheric structure. The models are evaluated in comparison with updated datasets of geodetic velocities and the most compressive horizontal principal stress azimuths. We find that the side and basal strengths drive the present-day motion of the Adria and Aegean Sea plates, whereas lithostatic pressure plays a key role in driving Anatolia. These findings provide new insights into the neotectonics of the greater Mediterranean region. Finally, the preferred model is used to estimate long-term shallow seismicity, which we retrospectively test against historical seismicity. As an alternative to reliance on incomplete geologic data or historical seismic catalogs, these neotectonic models help to forecast long-term seismicity, although requiring additional tuning before seismicity rates are used for seismic hazard purposes.

Beschreibung: Published

Beschreibung: 5311–5342

Beschreibung: 1T. Geodinamica e interno della Terra

Beschreibung: 2T. Tettonica attiva

Beschreibung: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Beschreibung: JCR Journal

Beschreibung: open

Schlagwort(e): Tectonics ; Earthquake rates ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.03. Heat flow ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.06. Rheology, friction, and structure of fault zones ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.01. Continents ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.02. Geodynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.04. Plate boundaries, motion, and tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics

Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)

Materialart: article

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Sill intrusion as a source mechanism of unrest at volcanic calderas (2015)

Macedonio, G. ; Giudicepietro, F. ; D'Auria, L. ; [weitere]

American Geophysical Union

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Publikationsdatum: 2017-04-04

Beschreibung: The interpretation of dynamic processes that occur in volcanic calderas is not simple. The ground deformations and the local seismicity, which in other volcanic contexts are usually regarded as precursors to eruption, in caldera environment in many cases are not followed by any eruption. We formulate a general hypothesis that can explain these behaviors. Our hypothesis is that the intrusion of a sill can be responsible for the dynamics observed during unrest at calderas. In order to investigate the reliability of this hypothesis, we developed a dynamic model of sill intrusion in a shallow volcanic environment. In our model, the sill, fed by a deeper magma reservoir, intrudes below a horizontal elastic plate, representing the overlying rocks, and expands with axisymmetric geometry. The model is based on the numerical solution of the equation for the elastic plate, coupled with a Navier-Stokes equation for simulating the dynamics of the sill intrusion. We performed a number of simulations, with the objective of showing the main features of the model. In the experiments, when the feeding process stops, the vertical movement reverses its trend and the area of maximum uplift undergoes subsidence. Under certain conditions the subsidence can occur even during the intrusion of the sill. The stress field produced by the intrusion is mainly concentrated in a circular zone that follows the sill intrusion front. The features predicted by the model are consistent with many observations carried out on different calderas as reported in the scientific literature.

Beschreibung: Published

Beschreibung: 3986–4000

Beschreibung: 2V. Dinamiche di unrest e scenari pre-eruttivi

Beschreibung: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi

Beschreibung: 5V. Sorveglianza vulcanica ed emergenze