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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.04. Marine geology  (1)
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk  (1)
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous  (1)
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.08. Sediments: dating, processes, transport
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.10. Stratigraphy
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology
  • Acoustics
  • Applied geophysics
  • Data analysis / ~ processing
  • Fluids
  • Schussler
  • Textbook of geophysics
  • Wiley-Blackwell  (3)
  • Cambridge Univ. Press
  • Soc. of Exploration Geophys.
  • 2010-2014  (3)
  • 2005-2009
  • 2000-2004
  • 1980-1984
  • 2014  (3)
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  • 2010-2014  (3)
  • 2005-2009
  • 2000-2004
  • 1980-1984
Year
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2020-12-15
    Description: We present a time-independent gridded earthquake rate forecast for the European region including Turkey. The spatial component of our model is based on kernel density estimation techniques, which we applied to both past earthquake locations and fault moment release on mapped crustal faults and subduction zone interfaces with assigned slip rates. Our forecast relies on the assumption that the locations of past seismicity is a good guide to future seismicity, and that future large-magnitude events occur more likely in the vicinity of known faults. We show that the optimal weighted sum of the corresponding two spatial densities depends on the magnitude range considered. The kernel bandwidths and density weighting function are optimized using retrospective likelihood-based forecast experiments. We computed earthquake activity rates (a- and b-value) of the truncated Gutenberg–Richter distribution separately for crustal and subduction seismicity based on a maximum likelihood approach that considers the spatial and temporal completeness history of the catalogue. The final annual rate of our forecast is purely driven by the maximum likelihood fit of activity rates to the catalogue data, whereas its spatial component incorporates contributions from both earthquake and fault moment-rate densities. Our model constitutes one branch of the earthquake source model logic tree of the 2013 European seismic hazard model released by the EU-FP7 project ‘Seismic HAzard haRmonization in Europe’ (SHARE) and contributes to the assessment of epistemic uncertainties in earthquake activity rates. We performed retrospective and pseudo-prospective likelihood consistency tests to underline the reliability of our model and SHARE’s area source model (ASM) using the testing algorithms applied in the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability (CSEP). We comparatively tested our model’s forecasting skill against the ASM and find a statistically significant better performance for testing periods of 10–20 yr. The testing results suggest that our model is a viable candidate model to serve for long-term forecasting on timescales of years to decades for the European region.
    Description: EC-Research FP7-projects, SHARE, under grant agreement No. 226967 and NERA, under grant agreement No. 262330
    Description: Published
    Description: 1159-1172
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Probabilistic forecasting ; Statistical seismology ; Europe ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The identification of a source model for the catastrophic 1908 December 28 Messina earth- quake (Mw = 7.2) has been the subject of many papers in the last decades. Several authors proposed different models on the basis of seismological, macroseismic and geodetic data sets; among these models, remarkable differences exist with regard to almost all parameters. We selected a subset of six models among those most cited in literature and used them to model the post-seismic sea level variation recorded at the tide gauge station of Messina (until 1923), to attempt an independent discrimination among them. For each model, we assumed a simple rheological structure and carried out a direct-search inversion of upper crust thickness and lower crust viscosity to fit the post-seismic sea level signal. This approach enabled us to iden- tify a class of fault geometries which is consistent with the post-seismic signal at the Messina tide gauge and with the known structural and rheological features of the Messina strait
    Description: Published
    Description: 611-622
    Description: 3.3. Geodinamica e struttura dell'interno della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Sea level change ; Earthquake source observations ; Rheology: crust and lithosphere ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2024-05-09
    Description: Episodic gas seepage occurs at the seafloor in the Gulf of Izmit (Sea of Marmara, NW Turkey) along the submerged segment of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), which ruptured during the 1999 Mw7.4 Izmit earthquake, and caused tectonic loading of the fault segment in front of the Istanbul metropolitan area. In order to study gas seepage and seismic energy release along the NAF, a multiparametric benthic observatory (SN-4) was deployed in the gulf at the western end of the 1999 Izmit earthquake rupture, and operated for about 1 yr at 166 m water depth. The SN-4 payload included a three-component broad-band seismometer, as well as gas and oceanographic sensors. We analysed data collected continuously for 161 d in the first part of the experiment, from 2009 October to 2010 March. The main objective of our work was to verify whether tectonic deformation along the NAF could trigger methane seepage. For this reason, we considered only local seismicity, that is, within 100 km from the station. No significant (ML ≥ 3.6) local earthquakes occurred during this period; on the other hand, the seismometer recorded high-frequency SDEs (short duration events), which are not related to seismicity but to abrupt increases of dissolved methane concentration in the sea water that we called MPEs (methane peak events). Acquisition of current velocity, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, temperature and salinity, allowed us to analyse the local oceanographic setting during each event, and correlate SDEs to episodic gas discharges from the seabed. We noted that MPEs are the result of such gas releases, but are detected only under favourable oceanographic conditions. This stresses the importance of collecting long-term multiparametric time-series to address complex phenomena such as gas and seismic energy release at the seafloor. Results from the SN-4 experiment in the Sea of Marmara suggest that neither low-magnitude local seismicity, nor regional events affect intensity and frequency of gas flows from the seafloor.
    Description: Published
    Description: 850-866
    Description: 1T. Geodinamica e interno della Terra
    Description: 3A. Ambiente Marino
    Description: 7A. Geofisica di esplorazione
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Time-series analysis ; Seismicity and tectonics ; Broad-band seismometers ; multiparametric seafloor observatory ; Izmit Gulf ; Sea of Marmara ; gas seepage ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.04. Chemical and biological::03.04.05. Gases ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.04. Marine geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.12. Fluid Geochemistry
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
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