ALBERT

Description: The Denmark Strait Overflow (DSO) supplies about one-third of the North Atlantic Deep Water and is critical to global thermohaline circulation. Knowledge of the pathways of DSO through the Irminger Basin and its transformation there is still incomplete, however. The authors deploy over 10 000 Lagrangian particles at the Denmark Strait in a high-resolution ocean model to study these issues. First, the particle trajectories show that the mean position and potential density of dense waters cascading over the Denmark Strait sill evolve consistently with hydrographic observations. These sill particles transit the Irminger Basin to the Spill Jet section (65.25°N) in 5–7 days and to the Angmagssalik section (63.5°N) in 2–3 weeks. Second, the dense water pathways on the continental shelf are consistent with observations and particles released on the shelf in the strait constitute a significant fraction of the dense water particles recorded at the Angmagssalik section within 60 days (~25%). Some particles circulate on the shelf for several weeks before they spill off the shelf break and join the overflow from the sill. Third, there are two places where the water density following particle trajectories decreases rapidly due to intense mixing: to the southwest of the sill and southwest of the Kangerdlugssuaq Trough on the continental slope. After transformation in these places, the overflow particles exhibit a wide range of densities.

Description: Quantile mapping is routinely applied to correct biases of regional climate model simulations compared to observational data. If the observations are of similar resolution as the regional climate model, quantile mapping is a feasible approach. However, if the observations are of much higher resolution, quantile mapping also attempts to bridge this scale mismatch. Here, it is shown for daily precipitation that such quantile mapping-based downscaling is not feasible but introduces similar problems as inflation of perfect prognosis ("prog") downscaling: the spatial and temporal structure of the corrected time series is misrepresented, the drizzle effect for area means is overcorrected, area-mean extremes are overestimated, and trends are affected. To overcome these problems, stochastic bias correction is required.

Description: During the past few decades, the green crab Carcinus maenas, a native to Europe, has invaded the North American Pacific coast. In this new habitat, C. maenas encounters North American periwinkles of the genus Littorina that differ from European Littorina spp. in size, shape and shell strength. We hypothesize that the ability to handle prey never encountered previously is a prerequisite for successful invasion of novel habitats. In a first approach to testing our hypothesis, we compared European (native) to Canadian (invaded) C. maenas in feeding trials with Littorina spp. from Europe as well as Canada. Canadian crabs had significantly larger crusher claws than European crabs of the same size. Prey handling by Baltic crabs, but not by North Sea crabs, significantly depended on shell morphometry and strength of European periwinkles. By contrast, neither European nor Canadian crabs were affected by shell characteristics of the relatively soft-shelled Canadian periwinkles. Baltic and Canadian crabs did not differ in terms of handling time for, and handling success of, different periwinkle species, but North Sea crabs needed more time for, and were less successful in, crushing periwinkles. We conclude that C. maenas exhibits plasticity in both claw morphometry and feeding behaviour that enables this predator to handle novel prey organisms, and contributes to its success as an invader.

Description: Climate change has the potential to profoundly influence the community structure and function of marine ecosystems. Prior to testing the consequences of altered environmental conditions on ecosystem functioning, it is first necessary to better understand how the functioning of an ecosystem is affected by its structure. Using phytoplankton communities with 4 naturally co‑occurring coccolithophores including species of Emiliania, Gephyrocapsa, and Calcidiscus collected off the Azores, we experimentally tested whether varying initial dominance leads to different competitive outcomes and consequently affects community functioning, such as biomass and carbon accumulation. We manipulated initial community structure by creating 5 different dominance scenarios: (1) all species contributing evenly to total initial biomass, and (2–5) one of each species contributing 4× that of the remaining 3 species to total initial biomass. All 4 species were simultaneously grown in monocultures starting with the same total initial biomass as the communities. Monocultures differed significantly in total final biomass, particulate inorganic carbon, and particulate organic carbon content. Priority effects in the communities caused the initially dominant species to remain dominant during the stationary phase in 3 out of 4 cases. However, despite varying dominant species and different outcomes in the monocultures, community functioning was unaffected. We suggest that selective and facilitative effects are responsible for the equalization of community functioning. We conclude that monoculture experiments are not sufficient to predict whole-community responses, since species interactions can significantly alter the expected functional outcome.

Description: Droop’s cell-quota model is the most successful description of phytoplankton growth in laboratory cultures and is increasingly being introduced into the ecosystem components of biogeochemical models. Although the Droop model’s parameters can be easily interpreted in biological terms, it was nevertheless derived empirically and lacks a sound mechanistic foundation. Here we derive Droop’s model from a simple optimality condition which maximises net growth rate. Our approach links the maximum cell quota to the cost of nutrient acquisition and suggests that respiration is influenced more strongly by C fixation than by N assimilation.

Description: The growth and development of the aragonitic CaCO3 otoliths of teleost fish could be vulnerable to processes resulting from ocean acidification. The potential effects of an increase in atmospheric CO2 on the calcification of the otoliths were investigated by rearing Atlantic cod Gadus morhua L. larvae in 3 pCO2 concentrations—control (370 µatm), medium (1800 µatm) and high (4200 µatm)—from March to May 2010. Increased otolith growth was observed in 7 to 46 d post hatch (dph) cod larvae at elevated pCO2 concentrations. The sagittae and lapilli were usually largest in the high pCO2 treatment followed by the medium and control treatments. The greatest difference in mean otolith surface area (normalized to fish length) was for sagittae at 11 dph, with medium and high treatments being 46 and 43% larger than the control group, respectively. There was no significant pCO2 effect on the shape of the otoliths nor were there any trends in the fluctuating asymmetry, defined as the difference between the right and left sides, in relation to the increase in otolith growth from elevated pCO2.

Description: Previous attempts to derive the depth-dependent expression of the radiation stress have lead to a debate concerning (i) the applicability of Mellor’s approach to a sloping bottom, (ii) the introduction of the delta function at the mean sea surface in the later papers by Mellor, and (iii) a wave-induced pressure term derived in several recent studies. The authors use an equation system in vertically Lagrangian and horizontally Eulerian (VL) coordinates suitable for a concise treatment of the surface boundary, and obtain an expression for the depth-dependent radiation stress that is consistent with the vertically-integrated expression given by Longuet-Higgins and Stewart. Concerning (i)-(iii) in the above, the difficulty of handling a sloping bottom disappears when wave-averaged momentum equations in the VL coordinates are written for the development of (not the Lagrangian mean velocity but) the Eulerian mean velocity. There is also no delta function at the sea surface in the expression for the depth-dependent radiation stress. The connection between the wave-induced pressure term in the recent studies and the depth-dependent radiation stress term is easily shown by rewriting the pressure-based form stress term in the thickness-weighted-mean (TWM) momentum equations as a velocity-based term which contains the time derivative of the pseudomomentum in the TWM framework.

Description: The upper ocean, including the biologically productive euphotic zone and the mixed layer, has great relevance for studies of physical, biogeochemical, and ecosystem processes and their interaction. Observing this layer with a continuous presence, sampling many of the relevant variables, and with sufficient vertical resolution, has remained a challenge. Here a system is presented which can be deployed on the top of deep-ocean moorings, with a drive mechanism at depths of 150-200m, which mechanically winches a large sensor float and smaller communications float tethered above it to the surface and back down again, typically twice per day for periods up to 1 year. The sensor float can carry several sizeable sensors, and it has enough buoyancy to reach the near surface and for the communications float to pierce the surface even in the presence of strong currents. The system can survive mooring blow-over to 1000m depth. The battery-powered design is made possible by using a balanced energy-conserving principle. Reliability is enhanced with a drive assembly that employs a single rotating part that has no slip rings or rotating seals. The profiling bodies can break the surface to sample the near-surface layer and to establish satellite communication for data relay or reception of new commands. An inductive pass-through mode allows communication with other mooring components throughout the water column beneath the system. A number of successful demonstration deployments have been completed.

Description: In recent years, profiling floats, which form the basis of the successful international Argo observatory, are also being considered as platforms for marine biogeochemical research. This study showcases the utility of floats as a novel tool for combined gas measurements of CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) and O2. These float prototypes were equipped with a small-sized and submersible pCO2 sensor and an optode O2 sensor for high resolution measurements in the surface ocean layer. Four consecutive deployments were carried out during Nov. 2010 and June 2011 near the Cape Verde Ocean Observatory (CVOO) in the eastern tropical North Atlantic. The profiling float performed upcasts every 31 h while measuring pCO2, O2, salinity, temperature and hydrostatic pressure in the upper 200 m of the water column. In order to maintain accuracy, regular pCO2 sensor zeroings at depth and surface, as well as optode measurements in air, were performed for each profile. Through the application of data processing procedures (e.g., time-lag correction) accuracies of float-borne pCO2 measurements were greatly improved (10 – 15 μatm for water column and 5 μatm for surface measurements). O2 measurements yielded an accuracy of 2 μmol kg−1. First results of this pilot study show the possibility of using profiling floats as a platform for detailed and unattended observations of the marine carbon and oxygen cycle dynamics.

Description: The use of a coupled ocean/atmosphere/sea-ice model to hindcast (i.e. historical forecast) recent climate variability is described and illustrated for the cases of the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shift events in the Pacific. The initialization is achieved by running the coupled model in partially coupled mode whereby global observed wind stress anomalies are used to drive the ocean/sea-ice component of the coupled model while maintaining the thermodynamic coupling between the ocean/sea-ice and atmosphere components. Here we show that hindcast experiments can successfully capture many features associated with the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shifts. For instance, hindcast experiments started from the beginning of 1976 can capture sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific and the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) throughout the 9 years following the 1976/77 climate shift, including the deepening of the Aleutian low pressure system. Hindcast experiments started from the beginning of 1998 can also capture part of the anomalous conditions during the 4 years after the 1998/99 climate. We argue that the dynamical adjustment of heat content anomalies that are present in the initial conditions in the tropics is important for the successful hindcast of the two climate shifts.

Description: Differences with respect to anti-herbivore defense were investigated in invasive and native populations of the seaweed Gracilaria vermiculophylla. Specimens from 6 native populations in East Asia and from 8 populations invasive in Europe and the Mexican Pacific coast were maintained under identical conditions and offered to herbivorous snails from both the native range (Littorina brevicula) and Europe (L. littorea) in no-choice feeding assays. L. brevicula consumed in total significantly larger amounts of G. vermiculophylla tissue than did L. littorea. Further, both snail species least consumed the seaweed specimens originating from either non-native populations or from populations native to the Korean East Sea/Sea of Japan. The Korean East Sea/Sea of Japan had previously been identified as putative donor region of all the invasive populations of G. vermiculophylla. Thus, populations in the donor region as well as non-native populations in different invaded realms feature an increased capacity to resist feeding pressure. Differences in nutrient content did not account for the observed patterns of consumption, as palatability and carbon to nitrogen (C:N) ratio were not significantly correlated. Thus, mechanical or chemical defenses or the content of feeding cues influenced the behavior of the snails. We suggest that low palatability contributed to the invasion success of the species.

Description: Repeated invasions of European waters by the ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi offer a unique opportunity to study population dynamics and dispersal in gelatinous zooplankton. Here we followed population establishment in two recently invaded areas, the North and Baltic Sea, and analysed changes in population structure during a 3-yr interval using 7 highly polymorphic microsatellites (representing 191 alleles). A second goal was to reconstruct routes of recent invasive range expansion into the Mediterranean Sea During the study period (2008-2010) populations in North Sea and Western Baltic Sea maintained their allelic composition with virtually unchanged levels of genetic diversity and between-population differentiation. This demonstrates that gene flow between the two regions was limited and indicates successful reproduction in both areas. In contrast, at the eastern distribution limit in the central Baltic (Bornholm Basin) the same measures fluctuated between years and genetic diversity decreased from 2008-2010. In concordance with prior ecological observations, this supports the view that here M. leidyi formed a sink population. In the area of recent range expansion (Mediterranean Sea) we observed high population differentiation for a holoplanktonic species. Among Mediterranean samples collected at sites in Spain, France and Israel pairwise differentiation was between Fst = 0.04-0.16. Despite such differentiation, Bayesian clustering and phylogeographic analysis support the hypothesis that all Mediterranean M. leidyi result from a secondary introduction originating in the Black Sea. Our study contributes to growing evidence that multiple invasions of the same species can vary in their degree of genetic diversity and demonstrates how genetic markers can help to resolve whether gelatinous plankton species form self-sustaining populations.

Description: One of the most remarkable features of the reproductive systems of eubrachyuran crabs is the presence of specialized organs for sperm storage, the seminal receptacles. Descriptions of seminal receptacle morphology, sperm storage time, sperm retention across molts, and the capacity to store multiple ejaculates from different males can help in understanding crab mating strategies as well as in preventing negative effects of male-biased fisheries of heavily harvested species. Metacarcinus edwardsii is the most harvested crab in Chile, but its reproductive biology is largely unstudied. In this study, the morphology of the seminal receptacles of M. edwardsii is characterized from the macroscopic to the microscopic level, during key points in the reproductive cycle. The receptacles of experimentally mated and wild-caught females were included in this analysis. Metacarcinus edwardsii has ventral-type seminal receptacles that are able to retain sperm after molting, and even after extrusion of the eggs. Stratification of multiple ejaculates is clearly observed. In general, the pattern of sperm storage indicates that populations of this species, like those of other cancrid crabs, could have high resilience to the negative effects of the selective harvest of males, principally because females have a great sperm storage capacity.

Description: Changing seawater chemistry towards reduced pH as a result of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is affecting oceanic organisms, particularly calcifying species. Responses of non-calcifying consumers are highly variable and mainly mediated through indirect ocean acidification effects induced by changing the biochemical content of their prey, as shown within single species and simple 2-trophic level systems. However, it can be expected that indirect CO2 impacts observed at the single species level are compensated at the ecosystem level by species richness and complex trophic interactions. A dampening of CO2-effects can be further expected for coastal communities adapted to strong natural fluctuations in pCO2, typical for productive coastal habitats. Here we show that a plankton community of the Kiel Fjord was tolerant to CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) levels projected for the end of this century (〈1400 µatm), and only subtle differences were observed at the extremely high value of 4000 µatm. We found similar phyto- and microzooplankton biomass and copepod abundance and egg production across all CO2 treatment levels. Stoichiometric phytoplankton food quality was minimally different at the highest pCO2 treatment, but was far from being potentially limiting for copepods. These results are in contrast to studies that include only a single species, which observe strong indirect CO2 effects for herbivores and suggest limitations of biological responses at the level of organism to community. Although this coastal plankton community was highly tolerant to high fluctuations in pCO2, increase in hypoxia and CO2 uptake by the ocean can aggravate acidification and may lead to pH changes outside the range presently experienced by coastal organisms.

Description: The notion that excess phosphorus (P) and high irradiance favour pelagic diazotrophy is difficult to reconcile with diazotroph behaviour in laboratory experiments and also with the observed distribution of N2-fixing Trichodesmium, e.g. in the relatively nitrogen (N)-rich North Atlantic Ocean. Nevertheless, this view currently provides the state-of-the-art framework to understand both past dynamics and future evolution of the oceanic fixed N inventory. In an attempt to provide a consistent theoretical underpinning for marine autotrophic N2 fixation we derive controls of diazotrophy from an optimality-based model that accounts for phytoplankton growth and N2 fixation. Our approach differs from existing work in that conditions favourable for diazotrophy are not prescribed but emerge, indirectly, from trade-offs among energy and cellular resource requirements for the acquisition of P, N, and carbon. Our model reproduces laboratory data for a range of ordinary phytoplankton species and Trichodesmium. The model predicts that (1) the optimal strategy for facultative diazotrophy is switching between N2 fixation and using dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) at a threshold DIN concentration; (2) oligotrophy, especially in P and under high light, favours diazotrophy; (3) diazotrophy is compatible with DIN:DIP supply ratios well above Redfield proportions; and (4) communities of diazotrophs competing with ordinary phytoplankton decouple emerging ambient and supply DIN:DIP ratios. Our model predictions appear in line with major observed patterns of diazotrophy in the ocean. The predicted importance of oligotrophy in P extends the present view of N2 fixation beyond a simple control by excess P in the surface ocean.

Description: The Arctic continental shelf seas hold a globally significant source of freshwater that impacts Arctic Ocean stratification, circulation, and climate. This freshwater can be injected below the surface mixed layer by intense turbulent kinetic energy dissipation events, as resolved by Laptev Sea microstructure observations. The tides provide a major source of energy that can be dissipated and hence drive diapycnal mixing in the Laptev Sea. Multiyear ADCP mooring records from locations across the shelf reveal that semidiurnal tides are dominated by theM2 and S2 constituents, with the largest amplitudes on the outer shelf. Throughoutmost of the shelf, tides are clockwise polarized and sheared by stratification, as characteristic near the M2 critical latitude. Interannual variations of the tidal and shear structures on the inner shelf aremainly determined by the stratification-setting Lena River freshwater plume. In all locations,M2 tides are enhanced under sea ice, and therefore changes in the seasonal ice cover may lead to changes in tides and water column structure. The main conclusions of this study are that (i) tides play a comparatively greater role year-round on the outer shelf relative to the inner shelf; (ii) a sea ice reduction will overall decrease the predictability of the currents, especially on the inner shelf; and (iii) the freshwater distribution directly impacts diapycnal mixing by setting the vertical tidal structure. These combined effects imply that future sea ice loss will increase the variability and vertical mixing of freshwater, particularly on the inner shelf, where the Lena River first enters the Laptev Sea.

Description: Species identification based on morphological characteristics has caused misidentifications and led to twisted views of abundances and roles of ctenophores. Based on extensive field studies from 2007 to 2010, the occurrence of the arctic ctenophore Mertensia ovum was genetically verified in the southern, central and northern Baltic Sea, and its egg production, distribution and abundance were studied in relation to physical factors. Genetic analyses indicate that M. ovum is by far the most abundant small ctenophore in the Baltic Sea. Specimens from a 20 yr old ctenophore collection were also genetically identified as M. ovum, contrary to their previous morphological identification as another ctenophore species, Pleurobrachia pileus. Thus, earlier reports on P. pileus in the Baltic Sea may actually refer to M. ovum. The abundance of M. ovum was regulated by both salinity and temperature, with highest abundances found in sea areas and water layers at temperatures 〈7°C, salinities 〉5.5 and oxygen levels 〉4 ml l-1. During summer, the highest abundances of ctenophores and their eggs were found near the halocline, while the distribution was more uniform throughout the water column during winter. Only ctenophores 〉3.5 mm (oral-aboral length) produced eggs in the experiments, with an average rate of 2.2 eggs ind.-1 d-1. Finally, comparison with published data from the 1980s (assuming that those data refer to M. ovum) indicates that the present-day ctenophore abundance is ~80% lower in the north and ~55% higher in the southern parts of the Baltic Sea, due to reasons yet to be established.

Description: Coral reefs are under threat, exerted by a number of interacting effects inherent to the present climate change, including ocean acidification and global warming. Bioerosion drives reef degradation by recycling carbonate skeletal material and is an important but understudied factor in this context. Twelve different combinations of pCO2 and temperature were applied to elucidate the consequences of ocean acidification and global warming on the physiological response and bioerosion rates of the zooxanthellate sponge Cliona orientalis—one of the most abundant and effective bioeroders on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Our results confirm a significant amplification of the sponges’ bioerosion capacity with increasing pCO2, which is expressed by more carbonate being chemically dissolved by etching. The health of the sponges and their photosymbionts was not affected by changes in pCO2, in contrast to temperature, which had significant negative impacts at higher levels. However, we could not conclusively explain the relationship between temperature and bioerosion rates, which were slightly reduced at both colder as well as warmer temperatures than ambient. The present findings on the effects of ocean acidification on chemical bioerosion, however, will have significant implications for predicting future reef carbonate budgets, as sponges often contribute the lion’s share of internal bioerosion on coral reefs.

Description: A large number of quantities have to be measured and processed to determine the atmospheric-state variables, which are the actual measurands, from aircraft-based measurements. A great part of the dependencies between these quantities depends on the aerodynamic state of the aircraft. Aircraft-based meteorological measurements, hence, require in-flight calibration. Most operators of research aircraft perform some kind of calibration, but the schemes used and the degree they are documented greatly vary. The flight maneuvers and calculation methods required, however, are published in a number of partly overlapping and partly contradictory publications. Some methods are only presented as a minor issue in publications mainly focused on atmospheric processes and are therefore hard to find. For an aircraft user, it is hence challenging to either perform or verify a calibration because of missing comprehensive guidance. This lack was stated on occasion of the in-flight calibration of the German research aircraft Polar5 carried out for the field experiment Investigation of Katabatic Winds and Polynyas during Summer (IKAPOS). In the present paper, a comprehensive review of the existing literature on this field and a practical guide to the wind calibration of a research aircraft to be used for turbulent flux measurements are given.

Description: Pelagic zooplankton were monitored from 2000 to 2012 at a permanent location near the Svalbard archipelago, at the boundary between the central Arctic Ocean and the Greenland Sea in the eastern Fram Strait. The temporal results reveal the first evidence of successful reproduction in Arctic waters by an Atlantic pelagic crustacean from temperate waters. The Atlantic hyperid amphipod Themisto compressa is shown to have expanded its range from more southerly and warmer waters from 2004 onwards. Successful reproductive activity by T. compressa in Arctic waters was confirmed in 2011, indicated by the presence of a complete temporal series of developmental stages including ovigerous females and recently hatched juveniles. The Arctic amphipod community is currently in transition and a continuing northward spread of southern invaders could cause a biodiversity shift from large Arctic to smaller Atlantic species.

Description: To accurately assess community composition of invertebrates, both active and dormant life stages should be considered. Dormant stages are typically produced as a strategy to overcome inhospitable environmental conditions and can also facilitate species dispersal. While they often sink and accumulate in sediment of natural habitats forming ‘egg banks,’ dormant stages are also found in the sediments accumulated in ships’ ballast tanks. Recent studies have used 2 different methods to separate dormant stages from ballast sediment to assess invasion risk associated with ballast tanks: the colloidal silica sol Ludox HS 40 and sugar flotation (i.e. the Onbé-Marcus method). It has been assumed that the Ludox HS 40 method is most effective for separation but reduces dormant stage viability whereas sugar flotation has lower separation efficacy but higher resulting viability. We conducted a comparative assessment of the 2 methods by separating dormant stages from 160 ballast sediments and examining resulting abundance counts, hatching results, DNA extractions and PCR amplifications. We found no difference in the results between the methods. The financial cost of sugar flotation is lower than that of Ludox HS 40, and costs can be further reduced by using only 1 method instead of both due to lower labour costs, particularly for a large number of samples.

Description: The Kasatochi volcanic eruption that occurred in the central Aleutian Islands in Alaska, USA, in August 2008 is thought to have induced a massive diatom bloom in the iron-limited waters of the Gulf of Alaska, which potentially affected the oceanic food web by increasing the abundance of zooplankton and sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka in the northeast Pacific Ocean. We report the first seawater experiments involving volcanic ash ejected from the Kasatochi eruption, showing that the ash released 61 to 83 nmol Fe, 374 to 410 nmol NO3-, 5 to 6 nmol PO43- and 170 to 585 nmol SiO2 when it contacted seawater. Our study suggests that the amount of iron released from Kasatochi ash (an increase of 2.0 to 2.8 nM Fe) was indeed sufficient to cause the observed phytoplankton bloom in the northeastern Pacific Gyre, while the impact of macronutrient release was minimal. We further evaluated the multiple, interdependent processes in the oceanic food web related to the diatom bloom, involving the ocean survival of juvenile salmon that entered the northeast Pacific Ocean in the summer of 2008.

Description: Accurate projections of stratospheric ozone are required because ozone changes affect exposure to ultraviolet radiation and tropospheric climate. Unweighted multimodel ensemble-mean (uMMM) projections from chemistry–climate models (CCMs) are commonly used to project ozone in the twenty-first century, when ozone-depleting substances are expected to decline and greenhouse gases are expected to rise. Here, the authors address the question of whether Antarctic total column ozone projections in October given by the uMMM of CCM simulations can be improved by using a process-oriented multiple diagnostic ensemble regression (MDER) method. This method is based on the correlation between simulated future ozone and selected key processes relevant for stratospheric ozone under present-day conditions. The regression model is built using an algorithm that selects those process-oriented diagnostics that explain a significant fraction of the spread in the projected ozone among the CCMs. The regression model with observed diagnostics is then used to predict future ozone and associated uncertainty. The precision of the authors’ method is tested in a pseudoreality; that is, the prediction is validated against an independent CCM projection used to replace unavailable future observations. The tests show that MDER has higher precision than uMMM, suggesting an improvement in the estimate of future Antarctic ozone. The authors’ method projects that Antarctic total ozone will return to 1980 values at around 2055 with the 95% prediction interval ranging from 2035 to 2080. This reduces the range of return dates across the ensemble of CCMs by about a decade and suggests that the earliest simulated return dates are unlikely.

Description: Concentrations of heme b, the ironcontaining prosthetic group of many hemoproteins, were measured in 6 species of marine phytoplankton (Dunaliella tertiolecta, Emiliania huxleyi, Thalassio - sira weissflogii, T. oceanica, Phaeodactylum tricor - nutum and Synechococcus sp. WH7803) that were subjected to variations in iron concentration. Changes in heme b in response to reduced light and nitrate were also ex amined for E. huxleyi and T. oceanica. Results from laboratory cultures were compared with heme b determined in particulate material in the North Atlantic. In cultures, heme b made up 18 ± 14% (SE) of the total iron pool. Reduced iron and nitrate concentrations resulted in a decreased intracellular heme b concentration, expressed as per mole carbon. Chlorophyll a (chl a) to heme b ratios in E. huxleyi and D. tertiolecta in creased in response to limited light and nutrient availability, but slightly decreased or did not change in the diatoms and the cyanophyte Synechococcus sp. WH7803. The heme b:particulate organic carbon (POC) and chl a:heme b ratios in the North Atlantic were within the range observed in phytoplankton cultures. In the surface mixed layer, decreases in heme b:POC ratios were linked to decreases in nutrient concentrations. Chl a:heme b ratios increased with depth and were thus primarily affected by light availability. Relative relationships between heme b, chl a and POC in the North Atlantic likely represented a change in the ability of cells to undertake cellular processes driven by chl a (light harvesting) and heme b (e.g. electron transport) according to ambient light and nutrient conditions.

Description: Recent studies have discussed the consequences of ocean acidification for bacterial processes and diversity. However, the decomposition of complex substrates in marine environments, a key part of the flow of energy in ecosystems, is largely mediated by marine fungi. Although marine fungi have frequently been reported to prefer low pH levels, this group has been neglected in ocean acidification research. We present the first investigation of direct pH effects on marine fungal abundance and community structure. In microcosm experiments repeated in 2 consecutive years, we incubated natural North Sea water for 4 wk at in situ seawater pH (8.10 and 8.26), pH 7.82 and pH 7.67. Fungal abundance was determined by colony forming unit (cfu) counts, and fungal community structure was investigated by the culture-independent fingerprint method Fungal Automated Ribosomal Intergenic Spacer Analysis (F-ARISA). Furthermore, pH at the study site was determined over a yearly cycle. Fungal cfu were on average 9 times higher at pH 7.82 and 34 times higher at pH 7.67 compared to in situ seawater pH, and we observed fungal community shifts predominantly at pH 7.67. Currently, surface seawater pH at Helgoland Roads remains 〉8.0 throughout the year; thus we cannot exclude that fungal responses may differ in regions regularly experiencing lower pH values. However, our results suggest that under realistic levels of ocean acidification, marine fungi will reach greater importance in marine biogeochemical cycles. The rise of this group of organisms will affect a variety of biotic interactions in the sea.

Description: Evidence is presented for the notion that some contribution to the recent decadal trends observed in the Southern Hemisphere, including the lack of a strong Southern Ocean surface warming, may have originated from longer-term internal centennial variability originating in the Southern Ocean. The existence of such centennial variability is supported by the instrumental sea surface temperatures (SSTs), a multimillennial reconstruction of Tasmanian summer temperatures from tree rings, and a millennial control integration of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). The model variability was previously shown to be linked to changes in Weddell Sea deep convection. During phases of deep convection the surface Southern Ocean warms, the abyssal Southern Ocean cools, Antarctic sea ice extent retreats, and the low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Ocean weakens. After the halt of deep convection the surface Southern Ocean cools, the abyssal Southern Ocean warms, Antarctic sea ice expands, and the low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Ocean intensifies, consistent with what has been observed during the recent decades. A strong sensitivity of the time scale to model formulation is noted. In the KCM, the centennial variability is associated with global-average surface air temperature (SAT) changes of the order of a few tenths of a degree per century. The model results thus suggest that internal centennial variability originating in the Southern Ocean should be considered in addition to other internal variability and external forcing when discussing the climate of the twentieth century and projecting that of the twenty-first century.

Description: The wintertime northern annular mode (NAM) at the surface is known to undergo slow intraseasonal variations in association with stratospheric variability, which leads the surface signal by up to several weeks. The relative contributions, however, of potentially relevant stratosphere–troposphere coupling mechanisms are not yet fully understood. In this study the relative roles of (i) the downward effect of the zonal-mean secondary circulation induced by quasigeostrophic (QG) adjustment to stratospheric wave drag and radiative damping and (ii) wave drag local to the troposphere are estimated. For this purpose, a spectral tendency equation of the QG zonal-mean zonal wind is derived and used, in a first step, to obtain the external mechanical forcing that, in the QG framework, drives exactly the observed stratospheric and tropospheric daily NAM. In a second step, the equation is then integrated in time to reconstruct the daily NAM, but with the forcing restricted to either stratospheric or tropospheric levels, each case leaving a characteristic NAM surface signal. The relative roles of the above-mentioned mechanisms are found to be of similar quantitative importance, but to differ in a qualitative sense. The downward effect of stratospheric QG adjustment is responsible for the initiation of the NAM surface signal, whereas subsequently local tropospheric wave drag actively maintains and persists the signal over several weeks. Furthermore, the downward effect of QG adjustment to stratospheric radiative damping is shown to have only a minor impact, compared to that from stratospheric wave drag. The robustness of these conclusions is demonstrated by a sensitivity study with respect to various model parameters.

Description: The Agulhas Current plays a crucial role in the thermohaline circulation through its leakage into the South Atlantic. Under both past and present climates, the trade winds and westerlies could have the ability to modulate the amount of Indian-Atlantic inflow. Compelling arguments have been put forward suggesting that trade winds alone have little impact on the magnitude of Agulhas leakage. Here, employing three ocean models for robust analysis – a global coarse resolution, a regional eddy-permitting and a nested high-resolution eddy-resolving configuration – and systematically altering the position and intensity of the westerly wind belt in a series of sensitivity experiments, it is shown that the westerlies, in particular their intensity, control the leakage. Leakage responds proportionally to the westerlies intensity up to a certain point. Beyond this, through the adjustment of the large-scale circulation, energetic interactions occur between the Agulhas Return Current and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current that result in a state where leakage no longer increases. This adjustment takes place within 1 to 2 decades. Contrary to previous assertions, our results further show that an equatorward (poleward) shift in westerlies increases (decreases) leakage. This occurs due to the redistribution of momentum input by the winds. It is concluded that the reported present-day leakage increase could therefore reflect an unadjusted oceanic response mainly to the strengthening westerlies over the last few decades.

Description: For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional climate conditions around the globe. A weak La Ni a dissipated to ENSOneutral conditions by spring, and while El Nino appeared to be emerging during summer, this phase never fully developed as sea surface temperatures in the eastern conditions. Nevertheless, other large-scale climate patterns and extreme weather events impacted various regions during the year. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation from mid-January to early February contributed to frigid conditions in parts of northern Africa, eastern Europe, and western Asia. A lack of rain during the 2012 wet season led to the worst drought in at least the past three decades for northeastern Brazil. Central North America also experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. The Caribbean observed a very wet dry season and it was the Sahel's wettest rainy season in 50 years. Overall, the 2012 average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces ranked among the 10 warmest years on record. The global land surface temperature alone was also among the 10 warmest on record. In the upper atmosphere, the average stratospheric temperature was record or near-record cold, depending on the dataset. After a 30-year warming trend from 1970 to 1999 for global sea surface temperatures, the period 2000-12 had little further trend. This may be linked to the prevalence of La Ni a-like conditions during the 21st century. Heat content in the upper 700 m of the ocean remained near record high levels in 2012. Net increases from 2011 to 2012 were observed at 700-m to 2000-m depth and even in the abyssal ocean below. Following sharp decreases in to the effects of La Ni a, sea levels rebounded to reach records highs in 2012. The increased hydrological cycle seen in recent years continued, with more evaporation in drier locations and more precipitation in rainy areas. In a pattern that has held since 2004, salty areas of the ocean surfaces and subsurfaces were anomalously salty on average, while fresher areas were anomalously fresh. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2012 was near average, with a total of 84 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the North Atlantic was the only hurricane basin that experienced above-normal activity. In this basin, Sandy brought devastation to Cuba and parts of the eastern North American seaboard. All other basins experienced either near-or below-normal tropical cyclone activity. Only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity-all in Bopha became the only storm in the historical record to produce winds greater than 130 kt south of 7 N. It was also the costliest storm to affect the Philippines and killed more than 1000 residents. Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in June both reached new record lows. June snow cover extent is now declining at a faster rate (-17.6% per decade) than September sea ice extent (-13.0% per decade). Permafrost temperatures reached record high values in northernmost Alaska. A new melt extent record occurred on 11-12 July on the Greenland ice sheet; 97% of the ice sheet showed some form of melt, four times greater than the average melt for this time of year. The climate in Antarctica was relatively stable overall. The largest maximum sea ice extent since records begain in 1978 was observed in September 2012. In the stratosphere, warm air led to the second smallest ozone hole in the past two decades. Even so, the springtime ozone layer above Antarctica likely will not return to its early 1980s state until about 2060. Following a slight decline associated with the global 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached a record 9.5 +/- 0.5 Pg C in 2011 and a new record of 9.7 +/- 0.5 Pg C is estimated for 2012. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 2.1 ppm in 2012, to 392.6 ppm. In spring 2012, 2 concentration exceeded 400 ppm at 7 of the 13 Arctic observation sites. Globally, other greenhouse gases including methane and nitrous oxide also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 32% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Concentrations of most ozone depleting substances continued to fall.

Description: Mesoscale anticyclonic eddies in the Irminger Sea are observed using a mooring and a glider. Between 2002 and 2009, the mooring observed 53 anticyclones. Using a kinematic model, objective estimates of eddy length scales and velocity structure are made for 16 eddies. Anticyclones had a mean core diameter of 12 km, and their mean peak observed azimuthal speed was 0.1 m s(-1). They had core salinities and potential temperatures of 34.91-34.98 and 4.488-5.34 degrees C, respectively, making them warm and salty features. These properties represent a typical salinity anomaly of 0.03 and a temperature anomaly of 0.28 degrees C from noneddy values. All eddies had small (〈〈 1) Rossby numbers. In 2006, the glider observed two anticyclones having diameters of about 20 km and peak azimuthal speeds of about 0.3 m s(-1). Similar salinity anomalies were detected throughout the Irminger Sea by floats profiling in anticyclones. Two formation regions for the eddies are identified: one to the west of the Reykjanes Ridge and the other off the East Greenland Irminger Current near Cape Farewell close to the mooring. Observations indicate that eddies formed in the former region are larger than eddies observed at the mooring. A clear increase in eddy salinity is observed between 2002 and 2009. The observed breakup of these eddies in winter implies that they are a source of salt for the central gyre. The anticyclones are similar to those found in both the Labrador Sea and Norwegian Sea, making them a ubiquitous feature of the subpolar North Atlantic basins.

Description: In this article we address the causes of the large-scale tropical sea level pressure (SLP) changes during climate change. The analysis we present is based on model simulations, observed trends and the seasonal cycle. In all three cases the regional changes of tropospheric temperature (Ttropos) and SLP are strongly related to each other (considerably stronger than (sea) surface temperature and SLP). This relationship basically follows the Bjerknes Circulation Theorem, with relatively low regional SLP where we have relatively high Ttropos and vice versa. A simple physical model suggests a tropical SLP response to horizontally inhomogeneous warming in the tropical Ttropos, with a sensitivity coefficient of about -1.7 hPa/K. This relationship explains a large fraction of observed and predicted changes in the tropical SLP. It is shown that in climate change model simulations the tropospheric land-sea warming contrast is the most significant structure in the regional Ttropos changes relative to the tropical mean changes. Since the land-sea warming contrast exists in the absent of any atmospheric circulation changes it can be argued that the large-scale response of tropical SLP changes is to first order a response to the tropical land-sea warming contrast. Further, as land-sea warming contrast is mostly available moisture dependent, the models predict a stronger warming and decreasing SLP in the drier regions from South America to Africa and a weaker warming and increasing SLP over the wetter Indo-Pacific warm pool region. This suggests an increase in the potential for deep convection conditions over the Atlantic Sector and a decrease over the Indo-Pacific warm pool region in the future.

Description: Variations in eastern Indian Ocean upper-ocean thermal properties are assessed for the period 1970–2004, with a particular focus on asymmetric features related to opposite phases of Indian Ocean Dipole events, using high-resolution ocean model hindcasts. Sensitivity experiments, where atmospheric forcing variability is restricted to the Indian or Pacific Ocean only, support the interpretation of forcing mechanisms for large-scale asymmetric behavior in eastern Indian Ocean variability. Years are classified according to eastern Indian Ocean subsurface heat content (HC) as proxy of thermocline variations. Years characterized by anomalous low HC feature a zonal gradient in upper-ocean properties near the equator, while high events have a meridional gradient from the tropics into the subtropics. The spatial and temporal characteristics of the seasonal evolution of HC anomalies for the two cases is distinct, as is the relative contribution from Indian Ocean atmospheric forcing versus remote influences from Pacific wind forcing: low events develop rapidly during austral winter/spring in response to Indian Ocean wind forcing associated with an enhanced southeasterly monsoon driving coastal upwelling and a shoaling thermocline in the east; in contrast, formation of anomalous high eastern Indian Ocean HC is more gradual, with anomalies earlier in the year expanding from the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) region, initiated by remote Pacific wind forcing and transmitted through the ITF via coastal wave dynamics. Implications for seasonal predictions arise with high HC events offering extended lead times for predicting thermocline variations and upper-ocean properties across the eastern Indian Ocean.

Description: European Polar Low Working Group This workshop summarized the current state of PL research in the Arctic and Antarctic. A couple of related projects are in the planning phase or already funded. The creation of a PL database for the Norwegian Sea in the frame of the Sea Surface Temperature and Altimeter Synergy (STARS) project (http://projects.met.no stars) will provide a valuable resource for future research and, potentially, predictability improvements. The maintenance of this database and the creation of similar databases for other polar areas including satellite and NWP data are highly recommended. There is also a need for free and timely access to satellite data, in particular to SAR data to fill the gap caused by the mission end of Envisat. With the increasing resolution of climate models, mesoscale processes such as polar MCs will have to be considered in international research programs such as the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Polar Climate Predictability Initiative and the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Polar Predictability Project.