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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-04-04
    Description: Sewage disposal onto agricultural land may result in the high accumulation of organic wastes, which questions the applicability of typical elemental analysis used for the soil components. To monitor the contamination status of agricultural soils at a former sedimentation basin, after the long‐term cessation of wastewater irrigation, 110 locations (15–20 cm depth) and 4 boreholes (up to 100 cm depth) were sampled to determine pH, loss on ignition, and concentration of Ni, Cu, Pb, Zn, and Cr. Additionally, the applicability of portable X‐ray fluorescence (pXRF) for the soil samples highly influenced by the organic wastes was evaluated. The study revealed the presence of a relatively homogenous sewage waste layer (depth of 20 cm), characterized by slightly acidic to neutral pH (6.3–7.5), high organic matter (OM) accumulation (up to 49%), and elevated concentration (mg kg −1) ranges between: Pb (5–321), Cu (31–2828), Ni (10–193), Cr (14–966), and Zn (76–6639). The pXRF analysis revealed metal concentration increase in mineral samples (up to 50%). The regression models and correction factors demonstrated high correlation and significance of pXRF measurement with response to increasing OM content, with the lowest r 2 = 0.86 obtained for Ni. Correlation of pXRF and AES measurement illustrated element‐dependent response for soils high in organics. Zn, Cu, and Cr pXRF analysis led to a slight underestimation in lower values, but overall good correlations (0.87; 0.89; and 0.88 respectively). Pb and Ni pXRF measurement revealed higher deviation from the reference in both lower and higher concentrations (0.74 and 0.70, respectively).
    Description: German Federation of Industrial Research Associations http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002723
    Description: Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100006360
    Keywords: ddc:577.14
    Language: English
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-06-28
    Description: Braided reaches were common along near‐natural Alpine rivers, and the associated habitat dynamics supported plant and animal species specialized on early‐successional stages. The extensive riparian zones could mitigate climate change by absorbing floods and by retaining water during droughts. Human impacts largely reduced active river corridors through altered discharge and construction of dykes, while recent restoration projects aim at increasing river dynamics. The causes and consequences of Alpine river degradation are well understood, but there are only few quantitative studies on floodplain degradation and restoration. Thus, we have reconstructed historical changes of gravel bars along five Alpine rivers (Iller, Inn, Isar, Lech, and Wertach) in Southern Germany in the period 1808–2009, based on historical maps and aerial images. We found losses of 〉90% in gravel bar area along these rivers since the mid‐19th century. The decline was caused by a reduction of the active river corridor and by ongoing succession of the remaining open habitats. Within the past 30 years, at the Isar River, restoration measures were realized with the aim to widen the active river corridor and to recreate gravel bars. In four restored reaches, we found that 5% of the historical gravel bar area recovered, and that the proportion of restored gravel bar area was highest after intermediate flooding. We conclude that the active river corridors of German Alpine rivers are almost completely lost, and that more extensive restoration needs to be done to preserve the habitat dynamics and biodiversity of these systems, and to adapt Alpine rivers to climate change.
    Description: Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100007636
    Keywords: ddc:551.35
    Language: English
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-10-13
    Description: Accurate and reliable precipitation data with high spatial and temporal resolution are essential in studying climate variability, water resources management, and hydrological forecasting. A range of global precipitation data are available to this end, but how well these capture actual precipitation remains unknown, particularly for mountain regions where ground stations are sparse. We examined the performance of three global high‐resolution precipitation products for capturing precipitation over Central Asia, a hotspot of climate change, where reliable precipitation data are particularly scarce. Specifically, we evaluated MSWEP, CHIRPS, and GSMAP against independent gauging stations for the period 1985–2015. Our results show that MSWEP and CHIRPS outperformed GSMAP for wetter periods (i.e., winter and spring) and wetter locations (150–600 mm·year−1), lowlands, and mid‐altitudes (0–3,000 m), and regions dominated by winter and spring precipitation. MSWEP performed best in representing temporal precipitation dynamics and CHIRPS excelled in capturing the volume and distribution of precipitation. All precipitation products poorly estimated precipitation at higher elevations (〉3,000 m), in drier areas (〈150 mm), and in regions characterized by summer precipitation. All products accurately detected dry spells, but their performance decreased for wet spells with increasing precipitation intensity. In sum, we find that CHIRPS and MSWEP provide the most reliable high‐resolution precipitation estimates for Central Asia. However, the high spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the performance call for a careful selection of a suitable product for local applications considering the prevailing precipitation dynamics, climatic, and topographic conditions.
    Description: We present the first quantitative evaluation of global high‐resolution (below 12 km) precipitation products against independent ground observations over Central Asia. Our results show that MSWEP was best at representing temporal precipitation dynamics, and CHIRPS was most prominent in representing the volume and distribution of precipitation. This is especially the case of wet seasons, altitudes below 3,000 m, and regions dominated by spring and winter precipitation. Our analysis provides key insights on the precipitation products' suitability for local hydrological applications.
    Description: Leibniz‐Institut für Agrarentwicklung in Transformationsökonomien
    Description: Volkswagen Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001663
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-08-04
    Description: The 2011/2012 summer drought in Southeastern South America (SESA) was a short but devastating event. What would this event have looked like under pre‐industrial conditions, or in a +2 degC world? We find that climate change causes the region to be at a higher risk of drought. However, we found no large‐scale changes in the half‐month water budgets. We show that the climate change induced positive precipitation trend in the region outweighs the increased temperatures and potential evapotranspiration during the 2011/2012 drought. image
    Keywords: ddc:551.5
    Language: English
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-10-04
    Description: We review the widely used concepts of “buoyancy” and “convective available potential energy” (CAPE) in relation to deep convection in tropical cyclones and discuss their limitations. A fact easily forgotten in applying these concepts is that the buoyancy force of an air parcel, as often defined, is non‐unique because it depends on the arbitrary definition of a reference density field. However, when calculating CAPE, the buoyancy of a lifted air parcel is related to the specific reference density field along a vertical column passing through that parcel. Both concepts can be generalized for a vortical flow and to slantwise ascent of a lifted air parcel in such a flow. In all cases, the air parcel is assumed to have infinitely small dimensions. In this article, we explore the consequences of generalizing buoyancy and CAPE for buoyant regions of finite size that perturb the pressure field in their immediate environment. Quantitative calculations of effective buoyancy, defined as the sum of the conventional buoyancy and the static vertical perturbation pressure gradient force induced by it, are shown for buoyant regions of finite width. For a judicious choice of reference density, the effective buoyancy per unit mass is essentially a unique force, independent of the reference density, but its distribution depends on the horizontal scale of the buoyant region. A corresponding concept of “effective CAPE” is introduced and its relevance to deep convection in tropical cyclones is discussed. The study is conceived as a first step to understanding the decreasing ability of inner‐core deep convection in tropical cyclones to ventilate the mass of air converging in the frictional boundary layer as the vortex matures and decays.
    Description: The buoyancy force of an infinitesimally small air parcel is non‐unique, depending on the arbitrary definition of a reference density field. When calculating the “convective available potential energy” (CAPE), the buoyancy of a lifted air parcel is related to the reference density field along a vertical column passing through that parcel. We generalize buoyancy and CAPE for buoyant regions of finite size that perturb the pressure field in their immediate environment and discuss the relevance to deep convection in tropical cyclones.
    Keywords: ddc:551.5
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Publication Date: 2022-10-04
    Description: New cross‐validation diagnostics have been derived by further partitioning well‐established impact diagnostics. They are related to consistency relations, the most prominent of which indicates whether the first‐guess departures of a given observation type pull the model state into the direction of the verifying data (when processed with the ensemble estimated model error covariances). Alternatively, this can be regarded as cross‐validation between model error covariance estimates from the ensemble (which are used in the data assimilation system) and estimates diagnosed directly from the observations. A statistical cross‐validation tool has been developed that includes an indicator of statistical significance as well as a normalization that makes the statistical comparison largely independent from the total number of data and the closeness of their collocation. We also present a version of these diagnostics related to single‐observation experiments that exploits the same consistency relations but is easier to compute. Diagnostics computed within the Deutscher Wetterdienst's localized ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) are presented for various kinds of bins. Results from well‐established in‐situ measurements are taken as a benchmark for more complex observations. Good agreement is found for radio‐occultation bending angle measurements, whereas atmospheric motion vectors are generally also beneficial but substantially less optimal than the corresponding in‐situ measurements. This is consistent with reported atmospheric motion vector height assignment problems. To illustrate its potential, a recent example is given where the method allowed identifying bias problems of a subgroup of aircraft measurements. Another diagnostic relationship compares the information content of the analysis increments with a theoretical optimum. From this, the information content of the LETKF increments is found to be considerably lower than those of the deterministic hybrid ensemble–variational system, which is consistent with the LETKF's limitation to the comparably low‐dimensional ensemble space for finding the optimal analysis.
    Description: New cross‐validation diagnostics are presented, allowing to test the consistent use of different observation types in the data assimilation system. The figure gives an example in which these new diagnostics allowed identification of the detrimental impact of a group of aircraft measurements (which as a consequence has now been blacklisted in the Deutscher Wetterdienst's operational system). More precisely, brown colors in this plot indicate regions where these aircraft measurements pulled the analysis state away from radiosonde observations.
    Keywords: ddc:551.5
    Language: English
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2022-10-06
    Description: Trade wind convection organises into a rich spectrum of spatial patterns, often in conjunction with precipitation development. Which role spatial organisation plays for precipitation and vice versa is not well understood. We analyse scenes of trade‐wind convection scanned by the C‐band radar Poldirad during the EUREC4A field campaign to investigate how trade‐wind precipitation fields are spatially organised, quantified by the cells' number, mean size, and spatial arrangement, and how this matters for precipitation characteristics. We find that the mean rain rate (i.e., the amount of precipitation in a scene) and the intensity of precipitation (mean conditional rain rate) relate differently to the spatial pattern of precipitation. Whereas the amount of precipitation increases with mean cell size or number, as it scales well with the precipitation fraction, the intensity increases predominantly with mean cell size. In dry scenes, the increase of precipitation intensity with mean cell size is stronger than in moist scenes. Dry scenes usually contain fewer cells with a higher degree of clustering than moist scenes do. High precipitation intensities hence typically occur in dry scenes with rather large, few, and strongly clustered cells, whereas high precipitation amounts typically occur in moist scenes with rather large, numerous, and weakly clustered cells. As cell size influences both the intensity and amount of precipitation, its importance is highlighted. Our analyses suggest that the cells' spatial arrangement, correlating mainly weakly with precipitation characteristics, is of second‐order importance for precipitation across all regimes, but it could be important for high precipitation intensities and to maintain precipitation amounts in dry environments.
    Description: We analyse scenes of trade‐wind convection scanned by the C‐band radar Poldirad during the EUREC4A field campaign to investigate how trade‐wind precipitation fields are spatially organised, quantified by the cells' number, mean size, and spatial arrangement, and how this matters for precipitation characteristics. We conclude that the cells' size is important for both the amount and intensity of precipitation, whereas the cells' spatial arrangement is of second‐order importance for precipitation across all regimes, but possibly important for precipitation in dry environments.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) under Germany's Excellence Strategy—EXC 2037 'CLICCS—Climate, Climatic Change, and Society'
    Description: https://doi.org/10.25326/217
    Description: https://doi.org/10.25326/79
    Keywords: ddc:551.5
    Language: English
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2022-10-06
    Description: The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant component of tropical intraseasonal variability, with wide‐reaching impacts even on extratropical weather and climate patterns. However, predicting the MJO is challenging. One reason is the suboptimal state estimates obtained with standard data assimilation (DA) approaches. These are typically based on filtering methods with Gaussian approximations and do not take into account physical properties that are important specifically for the MJO. In this article, a constrained ensemble DA method is applied to study the impact of different physical constraints on the state estimation and prediction of the MJO. The quadratic programming ensemble (QPEns) algorithm utilized extends the standard stochastic ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with specifiable constraints on the updates of all ensemble members. This allows us to recover physically more consistent states and to respect possible associated non‐Gaussian statistics. The study is based on identical twin experiments with an adopted nonlinear model for tropical intraseasonal variability. This so‐called skeleton model succeeds in reproducing the main large‐scale features of the MJO and closely related tropical waves, while keeping adequate simplicity for fast experiments on intraseasonal time‐scales. Conservation laws and other crucial physical properties from the model are examined as constraints in the QPEns. Our results demonstrate an overall improvement in the filtering and forecast skill when the model's total energy is conserved in the initial conditions. The degree of benefit is found to be dependent on the observational setup and the strength of the model's nonlinear dynamics. It is also shown that, even in cases where the statistical error in some waves remains comparable with the stochastic EnKF during the DA stage, their prediction is improved remarkably when using the initial state resulting from the QPEns.
    Description: Unsatisfactory predictions of the MJO are partly due to DA methods that do not respect non‐Gaussian PDFs and the physical properties of the tropical atmosphere. Therefore the QPEns, an algorithm extending a stochastic EnKF with state constraints, is tested here on a simplified model for the MJO and associated tropical waves. Our series of identical twin experiments shows, in particular, that a constraint on the truth's nonlinear total energy improves forecasts statistically and can, in certain situations, even prevent filter divergence. image
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft : Heisenberg Award (DFG JA1077/4‐1); Transregional Collaborative Research Center SFB / TRR 165 “Waves to Weather” http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Office of Naval Research (ONR) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000006
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2022-10-06
    Description: The stochastically perturbed parametrisation tendency (SPPT) scheme is a well‐established technique in ensemble forecasting to address model uncertainty by introducing perturbations into the tendencies provided by the physics parametrisations. The magnitude of the perturbations scales with the local net parametrisation tendency, resulting in large perturbations where diabatic processes are active. Rapidly ascending air streams, such as warm conveyor belts (WCBs) and organized tropical convection, are often driven by cloud diabatic processes and are therefore prone to such perturbations. This study investigates the effects of SPPT and initial condition perturbations on rapidly ascending air streams by computing trajectories in sensitivity experiments with the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system, which are set up to disentangle the effects of initial conditions and physics perturbations. The results demonstrate that SPPT systematically increases the frequency of rapidly ascending air streams. The effect is observed globally, but is enhanced in regions where the latent heating along the trajectories is larger. Despite the frequency changes, there are only minor modifications to the physical properties of the trajectories due to SPPT. In contrast to SPPT, initial condition perturbations do not affect WCBs and tropical convection systematically. An Eulerian perspective on vertical velocities reveals that SPPT increases the frequency of strong upward motions compared with experiments with unperturbed model physics. Consistent with the altered vertical motions, precipitation rates are also affected by the model physics perturbations. The unperturbed control member shows the same characteristics as the experiments without SPPT regarding rapidly ascending air streams. We make use of this to corroborate the findings from the sensitivity experiments by analyzing the differences between perturbed and unperturbed members in operational ensemble forecasts of ECMWF. Finally, we give an explanation of how symmetric, zero‐mean perturbations can lead to a unidirectional response when applied in a nonlinear system.
    Description: The stochastically perturbed parametrisation tendencies (SPPT) scheme is used at ECMWF to perturb the model physics and introduces state‐dependent perturbations into the parametrisation tendencies. The frequency of rapidly ascending air streams is systematically enhanced when SPPT is active. This effect is stronger when the latent heating is large (panel a), and is therefore more pronounced in the Tropics than in the Extratropics. In contrast, the impact of SPPT on the physical properties of the air streams, such as the latent heat release, is very small (panel b).
    Description: Helmholtz Young Investigator Group ‘Sub‐ Seasonal Predictability: Understanding the Role of Diabatic Outflow’
    Keywords: ddc:551.5
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Publication Date: 2022-09-22
    Description: This note is framed as an open question to the community regarding parameterisation schemes using the blocking layer depth to reduce the orographic gravity wave drag. It is the purpose of this note to argue that the current orographic gravity wave drag parameterisation in the vicinity of blocking is inadequate. Reducing the gravity wave amplitude (and thereby reducing the gravity wave drag) by assuming an effective mountain height dependent on the blocking depth is not realistic. The arguments given here will hopefully spark a debate and new considerations, ultimately leading to improvements in current orographic gravity wave drag parameterisations. This note illustrates that low‐level blocking can induce more gravity waves or gravity waves with a higher momentum flux (compared to the current parameterisation schemes). More realistic parameterisation schemes are likely to improve the models' performance. However, the fact is complex theories are needed to describe gravity wave excitation by orography so that it is difficult to represent gravity wave nature by a ‘too simple’ parameterisation scheme.
    Description: The purpose of this letter is to provide arguments that the current gravity wave drag parameterisation in the vicinity of blocking is inadequate. Reducing the gravity wave drag depending on the blocking depth is not a realistic representation. The letter lists five ways in which the blocking layer can result in a greater amount of gravity wave drag.
    Keywords: ddc:551.5
    Language: English
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2022-08-09
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2022-08-09
    Description: High wind speed (U) is one of the most dangerous natural hazards in North America and Europe. As a result, spatially explicit, statistical estimation of extreme U is of particular relevance for many sectors. However, the most common sources of wind speed data such as reanalysis data and in situ measurements are limited for this purpose due to their coarse spatial resolution and low representativeness. Thus, the main goal was to develop a high spatial resolution (250 m × 250 m) model (GloWiSMo‐X) for monthly mapping of the maximum hourly U for a 10‐year return period (U10yr) in North America and Europe. The multistep development of GloWiSMo‐X is based on 2544 hourly U time series available from the integrated surface global hourly meteorological data set (UNCEI), U time series from ERA5 (UERA5), and mean wind speed from the Global Wind Speed Model (U¯GloWiSMo). Firstly, the block maxima method was applied to estimate monthly wind speed for a 10‐year return period for both UNCEI (U10yr,NCEI) and UERA5 (U10yr,ERA5). Secondly, the least squares boosting approach was used to predict the target variable U10yr,NCEI yielding the predictions Û10yr. The predictor variables U10yr,ERA5, U¯GloWiSMo, continent, and month were used as input. It was found that the highest monthly continental means of Û10yr (U¯10yr) in January are 16.4 m/s in North America and 16.3 m/s in Europe. U¯10yr dropped to 13.4 m/s and 12.5 m/s in August. The annual cycle of U¯10yr is more pronounced in Europe than in North America. The central parts of the USA and Western Europe were identified as intracontinental regions with the highest U¯10yr. GloWiSMo‐X proves to be very broadly applicable as it covers two different continents and all months. The model validation by the mean squared error (MSE) demonstrates its improved predictive power compared to ERA5.
    Description: A high spatial resolution (250 m × 250 m) model (GloWiSMo‐X) for monthly mapping of the maximum hourly wind speed for a 10‐year return period in North America and Europe was developed. The highest monthly continental means are 16.4 m/s in North America and 16.3 m/s in Europe. Due to the pronounced annual cycle, it drops to 13.4 m/s and 12.5 m/s in August. image
    Description: Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und nukleare Sicherheit
    Keywords: ddc:551.5
    Language: English
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2022-08-09
    Description: Organic matter management can improve soil structural properties. This is crucial for agricultural soils in tropical regions threatened by high rainfall intensities. Compared to conventional farming, organic farming is usually deemed to increase organic carbon and improve soil structural properties such as stability and permeability. However, how much, if any, buildup of organic carbon is possible or indeed occurring also depends on soil type and environmental factors. We compared the impact of seven years of organic farming (annually 13.6 t ha−1 of composted manure) with that of conventional practices (2 t ha−1 of farmyard manure with 150–170 kg N ha−1 of mineral fertilizers) on soil structural properties. The study was conducted on a Vertisol in India with a two‐year crop rotation of cotton soybean wheat. Despite large differences in organic amendment application, organic carbon was not significantly different at 9.6 mg C g−1 on average in the topsoil. However, the size distribution of water‐stable aggregates shifted toward more aggregates 〈137 μm in the organic systems. Cumulative water intake was lower compared to the conventional systems, leading to higher runoff and erosion. These changes might be related to the lower pH and higher exchangeable sodium in the organic systems. Our results indicate that higher application of organic amendments did not lead to higher soil organic carbon and associated improvement in soil structures properties compared to integrated fertilization in this study. Chemical properties may dominate soil aggregation retarding the uptake and integration of organic amendments for sustainable agricultural intensification in tropical, semiarid climates.
    Description: Biovision Foundation for Ecological Development http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100015593
    Description: Coop Sustainability Fund
    Description: Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC)
    Description: Foundation fiat panis http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100011087
    Description: Liechtenstein Development Service http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100015698
    Description: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.18665612
    Keywords: ddc:631.4
    Language: English
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2022-12-05
    Description: Classification of atmospheric circulation patterns (CP) is a common tool for downscaling rainfall, but it is rarely used for West Africa. In this study, a two‐step classification procedure is proposed for this region, which is applied from 1989 to 2010 for the Sudan‐Sahel zone (Central Burkina Faso) with a focus on heavy rainfall. The approach is based on a classification of large‐scale atmospheric CPs (e.g., Saharan Heat Low) of the West African Monsoon using a fuzzy rule‐based method to describe the seasonal rainfall variability. The wettest CPs are further classified using meso‐scale monsoon patterns to better describe the daily rainfall variability during the monsoon period. A comprehensive predictor screening for the seasonal classification indicates that the best performing predictor variables (e.g., surface pressure, meridional moisture fluxes) are closely related to the main processes of the West African Monsoon. In the second classification step, the stream function at 700 hPa for identifying troughs and ridges of tropical waves shows the highest performance, providing an added value to the overall performance of the classification. Thus, the new approach can better distinguish between dry and wet CPs during the rainy season. Moreover, CPs are identified that are of high relevance for daily heavy rainfall in the study area. The two wettest CPs caused roughly half of the extremes on about 6.5% of days. Both wettest patterns are characterized by an intensified Saharan Heat Low and a cyclonic rotation near the study area, indicating a tropical wave trough. Since the classification can be used to condition other statistical approaches used in climate sciences and other disciplines, the presented classification approach opens many different applications for the West African Monsoon region.
    Description: A two‐step classification of daily atmospheric circulation patterns is used to describe seasonal and daily rainfall variability in West Africa. The approach clearly distinguishes between dry and wet patterns if sea level pressure and stream function at 700 hPa are used. The two wettest patterns trigger about half of heavy rainfall events in Central Burkina Faso. They are characterized by an intensified Saharan Heat Low and a cyclonic rotation indicating a tropical wave trough near the study area.
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Keywords: ddc:551.5 ; circulation pattern ; classification ; downscaling ; heavy rainfall ; West Africa
    Language: English
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2022-11-08
    Description: Numerical simulations allow us to gain a comprehensive understanding of the underlying mechanisms of past, present and future climate changes. The mid-Holocene and the last interglacial were the two most recent warm episodes of Earth’s climate history and are the focus of paleoclimate research. Here, we present results of MH and LIG simulations with two versions of the state-of-the-art earth system model AWI-ESM. Most of the climate changes in MH and LIG compared to the pre-industrial era are agreed upon by the two model versions, including: (1) enhanced seasonality in surface temperature which is driven by the redistribution of seasonal insolation; (2) northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical rain belt; (3) a reduction in annual mean Arctic sea ice concentration; (4) weakening and northward displacement of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley Circulation, which is related to the decrease and poleward shift of the temperature gradient from the subtropical to the equator in the Northern Hemisphere; (5) westward shift of the Indo-PacificWalker Circulation due to anomalous warming over the Eurasia and North Africa during boreal summer; and (6) expansion and intensification of Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon rainfall, with the latter being dominated by the dynamic component of moisture budget, i.e., the strengthening of wind circulation. However, the simulated responses of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the two models yield different results for both the LIG and the MH. AMOC anomalies between the warm interglacial and pre-industrial periods are associated with changes in North Atlantic westerly winds and stratification of the water column at the North Atlantic due to changes in ocean temperature, salinity and density.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2020-07-16
    Description: The Vasco—Cirene field experiment, in January—February 2007, targeted the Seychelles—Chagos thermocline ridge (SCTR) region, with the main purpose of investigating Madden—Julian Oscillation (MJO)-related SST events. The Validation of the Aeroclipper System under Convective Occurrences (Vasco) experiment (Duvel et al. 2009) and Cirene cruise were designed to provide complementary views of air—sea interaction in the SCTR region. While meteorological balloons were deployed from the Seychelles as a part of Vasco, the Research Vessel (R/V) Suroît was cruising the SCTR region as a part of Cirene. more: The Vasco—Cirene program explores how strong air—sea interactions promoted by the shallow thermocline and high sea surface temperature in the Seychelles—Chagos thermocline ridge results in marked variability at synoptic, intraseasonal, and interannual time scales. The Cirene oceanographic cruise collected oceanic, atmospheric, and air—sea flux observations in this region in January—February 2007. The contemporaneous Vasco field experiment complemented these measurements with balloon deployments from the Seychelles. Cirene also contributed to the development of the Indian Ocean observing system via deployment of a mooring and 12 Argo profilers. Unusual conditions prevailed in the Indian Ocean during January and February 2007, following the Indian Ocean dipole climate anomaly of late 2006. Cirene measurements show that the Seychelles—Chagos thermocline ridge had higher-than-usual heat content with subsurface anomalies up to 7°C. The ocean surface was warmer and fresher than average, and unusual eastward currents prevailed down to 800 m. These anomalous conditions had a major impact on tuna fishing in early 2007. Our dataset also sampled the genesis and maturation of Tropical Cyclone Dora, including high surface temperatures and a strong diurnal cycle before the cyclone, followed by a 1.5°C cooling over 10 days. Balloonborne instruments sampled the surface and boundary layer dynamics of Dora. We observed small-scale structures like dry-air layers in the atmosphere and diurnal warm layers in the near-surface ocean. The Cirene data will quantify the impact of these finescale features on the upper-ocean heat budget and atmospheric deep convection.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2017-08-24
    Description: The western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is closely related to Asian climate. Previous examination of changes in the WPSH found a westward extension since the late 1970s, which has contributed to the inter-decadal transition of East Asian climate. The reason for the westward extension is unknown, however. The present study suggests that this significant change of WPSH is partly due to the atmosphere's response to the observed Indian Ocean-western Pacific (IWP) warming. Coordinated by a European Union's Sixth Framework Programme, Understanding the Dynamics of the Coupled Climate System (DYNAMITE), five AGCMs were forced by identical idealized sea surface temperature patterns representative of the IWP warming and cooling. The results of these numerical experiments suggest that the negative heating in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and increased convective heating in the equatorial Indian Ocean/ Maritime Continent associated with IWP warming are in favor of the westward extension of WPSH. The SST changes in IWP influences the Walker circulation, with a subsequent reduction of convections in the tropical central and eastern Pacific, which then forces an ENSO/Gill-type response that modulates the WPSH. The monsoon diabatic heating mechanism proposed by Rodwell and Hoskins plays a secondary reinforcing role in the westward extension of WPSH. The low-level equatorial flank of WPSH is interpreted as a Kelvin response to monsoon condensational heating, while the intensified poleward flow along the western flank of WPSH is in accord with Sverdrup vorticity balance. The IWP warming has led to an expansion of the South Asian high in the upper troposphere, as seen in the reanalysis.
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  • 18
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Climate, 22 (20). pp. 5319-5345.
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: Seasonal reconstructions of the Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM) index are derived to extend the record before the reanalysis period, using station sea level pressure (SLP) data as predictors. Two reconstructions using different predictands are obtained: one [Jones and Widmann (JW)] based on the first principal component (PC) of extratropical SLP and the other (Fogt) on the index of Marshall. A regional-based SAM index (Visbeck) is also considered.These predictands agree well post-1979; correlations decline in all seasons except austral summer for the full series starting in 1958. Predictand agreement is strongest in spring and summer; hence agreement between the reconstructions is highest in these seasons. The less zonally symmetric SAM structure in winter and spring influences the strength of the SAM signal over land areas, hence the number of stations included in the reconstructions. Reconstructions from 1865 were, therefore, derived in summer and autumn and from 1905 in winter and spring. This paper examines the skill of each reconstruction by comparison with observations and reanalysis data. Some of the individual peaks in the reconstructions, such as the most recent in austral summer, represent a full hemispheric SAM pattern, while others are caused by regional SLP anomalies over the locations of the predictors. The JW and Fogt reconstructions are of similar quality in summer and autumn, while in winter and spring the Marshall index is better reconstructed by Fogt than the PC index is by JW. In spring and autumn the SAM shows considerable variability prior to recent decades.
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  • 19
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Climate, 22 (9). pp. 2276-2301.
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: Extratropical cyclones and how they may change in a warmer climate have been investigated in detail with a high-resolution version of the ECHAM5 global climate model. A spectral resolution of T213 (63 km) is used for two 32-yr periods at the end of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries and integrated for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. Extremes of pressure, vorticity, wind, and precipitation associated with the cyclones are investigated and compared with a lower-resolution simulation.Comparison with observations of extreme wind speeds indicates that the model reproduces realistic values. This study also investigates the ability of the model to simulate extratropical cyclones by computing composites of intense storms and contrasting them with the same composites from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40). Composites of the time evolution of intense cyclones are reproduced with great fidelity; in particular the evolution of central surface pressure is almost exactly replicated, but vorticity, maximum wind speed, and precipitation are higher in the model. Spatial composites also show that the distributions of pressure, winds, and precipitation at different stages of the cyclone life cycle compare well with those from ERA-40, as does the vertical structure. For the twenty-first century, changes in the distribution of storms are very similar to those of previous study. There is a small reduction in the number of cyclones but no significant changes in the extremes of wind and vorticity in both hemispheres. There are larger regional changes in agreement with previous studies. The largest changes are in the total precipitation, where a significant increase is seen. Cumulative precipitation along the tracks of the cyclones increases by some 11% per track, or about twice the increase in global precipitation, while the extreme precipitation is close to the globally averaged increase in column water vapor (some 27%). Regionally, changes in extreme precipitation are even higher because of changes in the storm tracks.
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2020-08-04
    Description: A new, non-flux-corrected, global climate model is introduced, the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), which will be used to study internal climate variability from interannual to millennial time scales and climate predictability of the first and second kind. The version described here is a coarse-resolution version that will be employed in extended-range integrations of several millennia. KCM's performance in the tropical Pacific with respect to mean state, annual cycle, and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is described. Additionally, the tropical Pacific response to global warming is studied.Overall, climate drift in a multicentury control integration is small. However, KCM exhibits an equatorial cold bias at the surface of the order 1 degrees C, while strong warm biases of several degrees are simulated in the eastern tropical Pacific on both sides off the equator, with maxima near the coasts. The annual and semiannual cycles are realistically simulated in the eastern and western equatorial Pacific, respectively. ENSO performance compares favorably to observations with respect to both amplitude and period. An ensemble of eight greenhouse warming simulations was performed, in which the CO2 concentration was increased by 1% yr(-1) until doubling was reached, and stabilized thereafter. Warming of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) is, to first order, zonally symmetric and leads to a sharpening of the thermocline. ENSO variability increases because of global warming: during the 30-yr period after CO2 doubling, the ensemble mean standard deviation of Nino-3 SST anomalies is increased by 26% relative to the control, and power in the ENSO band is almost doubled. The increased variability is due to both a strengthened (22%) thermocline feedback and an enhanced (52%) atmospheric sensitivity to SST; both are associated with changes in the basic state. Although variability increases in the mean, there is a large spread among ensemble members and hence a finite probability that in the "model world" no change in ENSO would be observed.
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  • 21
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Physical Oceanography, 39 (12). pp. 3091-3110.
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: The temporal evolution of the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the subtropical North Atlantic is affected by both remotely forced, basin-scale meridionally coherent, climate-relevant transport anomalies, such as changes in high-latitude deep water formation rates, and locally forced transport anomalies, such as eddies or Rossby waves, possibly associated with small meridional coherence scales, which can be considered as noise. The focus of this paper is on the extent to which local eddies and Rossby waves when impinging on the western boundary of the Atlantic affect the temporal variability of the AMOC at 26.5 degrees N. Continuous estimates of the AMOC at this latitude have been made since April 2004 by combining the Florida Current, Ekman, and midocean transports with the latter obtained from continuous density measurements between the coasts of the Bahamas and Morocco, representing, respectively, the western and eastern boundaries of the Atlantic at this latitude.Within 100 km of the western boundary there is a threefold decrease in sea surface height variability toward the boundary, observed in both dynamic heights from in situ density measurements and altimetric heights. As a consequence, the basinwide zonally integrated upper midocean transport shallower than 1000 m-as observed continuously between April 2004 and October 2006-varies by only 3.0 Sv (1 Sv = 10(6) m(3) s(-1)) RMS. Instead, upper midocean transports integrated from western boundary stations 16, 40, and 500 km offshore to the eastern boundary vary by 3.6, 6.0, and 10.7 Sv RMS, respectively. The reduction in eddy energy toward the western boundary is reproduced in a nonlinear reduced-gravity model suggesting that boundary-trapped waves may account for the observed decline in variability in the coastal zone because they provide a mechanism for the fast equatorward export of transport anomalies associated with eddies impinging on the western boundary. An analytical model of linear Rossby waves suggests a simple scaling for the reduction in thermocline thickness variability toward the boundary. Physically, the reduction in amplitude is understood as along-boundary pressure gradients accelerating the fluid and rapidly propagating pressure anomalies along the boundary. The results suggest that the local eddy field does not dominate upper midocean transport or AMOC variability at 26.5 degrees N on interannual to decadal time scales.
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  • 22
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Climate, 22 (18). pp. 4930-4938.
    Publication Date: 2020-08-04
    Description: Several recent general circulation model studies discuss the predictability of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode, suggesting that it is predictable because of coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions in the Indian Ocean. However, it is not clear from these studies how much of the predictability is due to the response to El Nino. It is shown in this note that a simple statistical model that treats the Indian Ocean as a red noise process forced by tropical Pacific SST shows forecast skills comparable to those of recent general circulation model studies. The results also indicate that some of the eastern tropical Indian Ocean SST predictability in recent studies may indeed be beyond the skill of the simple model proposed in this note, indicating that dynamics in the Indian Ocean may have caused this improved predictability in this region. The model further indicates that the IOD index may be the least predictable index of Indian Ocean SST variability. The model is proposed as a null hypothesis for Indian Ocean SST predictions.
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  • 23
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Climate, 22 (18). pp. 4939-4952.
    Publication Date: 2020-08-04
    Description: A characteristic feature of global warming is the land-sea contrast, with stronger warming over land than over oceans. Recent studies find that this land-sea contrast also exists in equilibrium global change scenarios, and it is caused by differences in the availability of surface moisture over land and oceans. In this study it is illustrated that this land-sea contrast exists also on interannual time scales and that the ocean-land interaction is strongly asymmetric. The land surface temperature is more sensitive to the oceans than the oceans are to the land surface temperature, which is related to the processes causing the land-sea contrast in global warming scenarios. It suggests that the ocean's natural variability and change is leading to variability and change with enhanced magnitudes over the continents, causing much of the longer-time-scale (decadal) global-scale continental climate variability. Model simulations illustrate that continental warming due to anthropogenic forcing (e. g., the warming at the end of the last century or future climate change scenarios) is mostly (80%-90%) indirectly forced by the contemporaneous ocean warming, not directly by local radiative forcing.
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  • 24
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Climate, 22 (4). pp. 940-950.
    Publication Date: 2020-08-04
    Description: Atmospheric pressure observations from the Southern Hemisphere are used to estimate monthly and annually averaged indexes of the southern annular mode (SAM) back to 1884. This analysis groups all relevant observations in the following four regions: one for Antarctica and three in the subtropical zone. Continuous surface pressure observations are available at a number of locations in the subtropical regions since the end of the nineteenth century. However, year-round observations in the subpolar region near the Antarctic continent began only during the 1940-60 period. The shorter Antarctic records seriously compromise the length of a traditionally estimated SAM index. To improve the situation "proxy'' estimates of Antarctic sea level pressure anomalies are provided based on the concept of atmospheric mass conservation poleward of 208S. This allows deriving a longer SAM index back to 1884. Several aspects of the new record, its statistical properties, seasonal trends, and the regional pressure anomaly correlations, are presented.
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  • 25
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Climate, 22 . pp. 550-567.
    Publication Date: 2020-08-04
    Description: Statistical analysis of observations (including atmospheric reanalysis and forced ocean model simulations) is used to address two questions: First, does an analogous mechanism to that of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exist in the equatorial Atlantic or Indian Ocean? Second, does the intrinsic variability in these basins matter for ENSO predictability? These questions are addressed by assessing the existence and strength of the Bjerknes and delayed negative feedbacks in each tropical basin, and by fitting conceptual recharge oscillator models, both with and without interactions among the basins. In the equatorial Atlantic the Bjerknes and delayed negative feedbacks exist, although weaker than in the Pacific. Equatorial Atlantic variability is well described by the recharge oscillator model, with an oscillatory mixed ocean dynamics–sea surface temperature (SST) mode present in boreal spring and summer. The dynamics of the tropical Indian Ocean, however, appear to be quite different: no recharge–discharge mechanism is found. Although a positive Bjerknes-like feedback from July to September is found, the role of heat content seems secondary. Results also show that Indian Ocean interaction with ENSO tends to damp the ENSO oscillation and is responsible for a frequency shift to shorter periods. However, the retrospective forecast skill of the conceptual model is hardly improved by explicitly including Indian Ocean SST. The interaction between ENSO and the equatorial Atlantic variability is weaker. However, a feedback from the Atlantic on ENSO appears to exist, which slightly improves the retrospective forecast skill of the conceptual model.
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  • 26
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Physical Oceanography, 39 . pp. 2417-2435.
    Publication Date: 2020-08-04
    Description: The Agulhas Current system has been analyzed in a nested high-resolution ocean model and compared to observations. The model shows good performance in the western boundary current structure and the transports off the South African coast. This includes the simulation of the northward-flowing Agulhas Undercurrent. It is demonstrated that fluctuations of the Agulhas Current and Undercurrent around 50–70 days are due to Natal pulses and Mozambique eddies propagating downstream. A sensitivity experiment that excludes those upstream perturbations significantly reduces the variability as well as the mean transport of the undercurrent. Although the model simulates undercurrents in the Mozambique Channel and east of Madagascar, there is no direct connection between those and the Agulhas Undercurrent. Virtual float releases demonstrate that topography is effectively blocking the flow toward the north.
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  • 27
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Physical Oceanography, 39 . pp. 1486-1494.
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: For the first time, an analytical theory and a very high-resolution, frontal numerical model, both based on the unsteady, nonlinear, reduced-gravity shallow water equations on a beta plane, have been used to investigate aspects of the migration of homogeneous surface, frontal warm-core eddies on a beta plane. Under the assumption that, initially, such vortices are surface circular anticyclones of paraboloidal shape and having both radial and azimuthal velocities that are linearly dependent on the radial coordinate (i.e., circular pulsons of the first order), approximate analytical expressions are found that describe the nonstationary trajectories of their centers of mass for an initial stage as well as for a mature stage of their westward migration. In particular, near-inertial oscillations are evident in the initial migration stage, whose amplitude linearly increases with time, as a result of the unbalanced vortex initial state on a beta plane. Such an initial amplification of the vortex oscillations is actually found in the first stage of the evolution of warm-core frontal eddies simulated numerically by means of a frontal numerical model initialized using the shape and velocity fields of circular pulsons of the first order. In the numerical simulations, this stage is followed by an adjusted, complex nonstationary state characterized by a noticeable asymmetry in the meridional component of the vortex's horizontal pressure gradient, which develops to compensate for the variations of the Coriolis parameter with latitude. Accordingly, the location of the simulated vortex's maximum depth is always found poleward of the location of the simulated vortex's center of mass. Moreover, during the adjusted stage, near-inertial oscillations emerge that largely deviate from the exactly inertial ones characterizing analytical circular pulsons: a superinertial and a subinertial oscillation in fact appear, and their frequency difference is found to be an increasing function of latitude. A comparison between vortex westward drifts simulated numerically at different latitudes for different vortex radii and pulsation strengths and the corresponding drifts obtained using existing formulas shows that, initially, the simulated vortex drifts correspond to the fastest predicted ones in many realistic cases. As time elapses, however, the development of a beta-adjusted vortex structure, together with the effects of numerical dissipation, tend to slow down the simulated vortex drift.
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  • 28
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Physical Oceanography, 39 (11). pp. 3040-3045.
    Publication Date: 2020-08-04
    Description: Wind-induced near-inertial energy has been believed to be an important source for generating the ocean mixing required to maintain the global meridional overturning circulation. In the present study, the near-inertial energy budget in a realistic (1)/(12)degrees model of the North Atlantic Ocean driven by synoptically varying wind forcing is examined. The authors find that nearly 70% of the wind-induced near-inertial energy at the sea surface is lost to turbulent mixing within the top 200 m and, hence, is not available to generate diapycnal mixing at greater depth. Assuming this result can be extended to the global ocean, it is estimated that the wind-induced near-inertial energy available for ocean mixing at depth is, at most, 0.1 TW. This confirms a recent suggestion that the role of wind-induced near-inertial energy in sustaining the global overturning circulation might have been overemphasized.
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2022-03-07
    Description: A new field of study, "decadal prediction," is emerging in climate science. Decadal prediction lies between seasonal/interannual forecasting and longer-term climate change projections, and focuses on time-evolving regional climate conditions over the next 10-30 yr. Numerous assessments of climate information user needs have identified this time scale as being important to infrastructure planners, water resource managers, and many others. It is central to the information portfolio required to adapt effectively to and through climatic changes. At least three factors influence time-evolving regional climate at the decadal time scale: 1) climate change commitment (further warming as the coupled climate system comes into adjustment with increases of greenhouse gases that have already occurred), 2) external forcing, particularly from future increases of greenhouse gases and recovery of the ozone hole, and 3) internally generated variability. Some decadal prediction skill has been demonstrated to arise from the first two of these factors, and there is evidence that initialized coupled climate models can capture mechanisms of internally generated decadal climate variations, thus increasing predictive skill globally and particularly regionally. Several methods have been proposed for initializing global coupled climate models for decadal predictions, all of which involve global time-evolving threedimensional ocean data, including temperature and salinity. An experimental framework to address decadal predictability/prediction is described in this paper and has been incorporated into the coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Model, phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments, some of which will be assessed for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These experiments will likely guide work in this emerging field over the next 5 yr.
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