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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Review of law and economics 3.2007, 2, art12 
    ISSN: 1555-5879
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: We offer a model that sheds light on the debate over whether corporate ownership concentration converges to the Berle-Means image. Our model takes into account the importance of both legal rules and firm-specific arrangements. Our analytical result is that share ownership concentration either persists or falls depending on the relative importance of these protective arrangements. In particular, our model predicts: (a) diffuse corporate ownership in nations that impose legal limits on blockholders' clout to expropriate minority shareholder rights, and (b) concentrated corporate ownership in nations that rely on asset specificity as a form of investor protection. Our empirical work suggests partial convergence toward Berle-Means diffuse share ownership. It is thereby reasonable to infer the existence of path dependent forces on ownership concentration. But this result does not preclude the possibility of functional convergence or convergence to the diffuse form of share ownership via cross-listings on the major U.S. stock exchanges that impose stringent disclosure and listing requirements. In essence, these results suggest a case for the co-existence of the preexisting path-dependency and functional-convergence stories.
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Review of law and economics 3.2007, 2, art5 
    ISSN: 1555-5879
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This study empirically investigates whether racial and ethnic differences in police searches of stopped drivers reflect efficient enforcement or biased policing. Null hypotheses consistent with efficient enforcement are derived from alternative assumptions regarding police objectives: 1) police seek to maximize public safety, and 2) police seek to maximize the hit rate. We use both an outcomes-based non-parametric analysis and a standard benchmarking parametric approach (regression analysis). Both approaches yield the same results: law enforcement officers display both personal and police cultural bias in their propensity to search African American and Latino drivers. African American and Latino status tends to lower the guilt signal required for police suspicion. Further, white officers police differently than their African American and Latino colleagues. White officers are 73 percent of the sworn police force, conduct 88 percent of the searches, and have a hit rate of 20 percent. Latino officers are 11 percent of the sworn labor force, conduct 8 percent of the searches, and have a hit rate of 24 percent. African American officers are 15 percent of the sworn labor force, conduct 4 percent of the searches, and have a hit rate of 26 percent. The preferential treatment of white drivers by police is attenuated with increases in the fraction of racial and ethnic minority residents in the county where the stop occurred.
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Review of law and economics 3.2007, 2, art3 
    ISSN: 1555-5879
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: In this paper we assert that, if an offender can dispose of some or all of his wealth after violating the law, raising the fine up to his wealth level will induce him to dispose of his wealth, thereby increasing social cost without deterring more offenses. This suggests that the socially optimal fine should be set below the offender's maximum wealth level.
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Review of law and economics 3.2007, 1, art6 
    ISSN: 1555-5879
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This paper investigates the evolution of competition policy decisions in the US and, particularly, in the EU, concerning mandatory access to an essential facility held by a dominant firm. Based on some recent and controversial EU antitrust decisions, we outline a comprehensive test for identifying an essential facility and consequently imposing a mandatory access obligation on dominant firms.
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Review of law and economics 3.2007, 1, art3 
    ISSN: 1555-5879
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: The popularity of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) is the subject of much controversy. This paper examines usage of the ICJ by all United Nations (UN) member states as compared with its usage by those states with the top-ten economies of the world. Five hypotheses explaining the decrease in ICJ usage by the top-ten economies are presented as follows: (1) a home-bias of judges, (2) the diversification of international tribunals, (3) changes in the composition of the cases filed, (4) the (re-)allocation of power, and (5) an increased heterogeneity of external institutions among UN member states. We find empirical evidence that an increase in UN membership has led to increased heterogeneity, which in turn has led to a decline in usage of the ICJ by the top-ten economies.
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Review of law and economics 3.2007, 1, art5 
    ISSN: 1555-5879
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: The corporate lawyer-client privilege is increasingly controversial. Courts assert that the privilege promotes corporate compliance with the law as long as it is restricted to communications in furtherance of legal advice. This article assumes the privilege increases the probability that a corporation will escape liability. Courts can apply various tests to determine whether the agent who communicated with the corporate attorney can be defined as a representative of the corporation. The most restrictive test, the "control group" test, has been rejected by most American jurisdictions, but it has recently re-emerged in the United Kingdom. The author proposes that this test motivates corporations to restructure their optimal internal decision-making processes in order to "squeeze" into the privilege. When plaintiffs are uninformed about the internal organization of a corporate defendant, even corporations that cannot squeeze into the test have an incentive to mimic the behavior of privileged corporations, and consequently pursue socially harmful actions. These findings are supported by case law from control group jurisdictions.
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Review of law and economics 3.2007, 2, art7 
    ISSN: 1555-5879
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: In a comprehensive study extending prior research, Prince and Rubin (2002) use the event study methodology, and find negative market reaction to a sample of 15 initial filings of product liability litigation and 29 other litigation events against U.S. automakers between 1973 and 1995. They conclude that the event study methodology is a useful way to measure the costs of litigation. In contrast, after examination of a new sample of 144 initial filing events and 465 other litigation events for six major automobile firms from 1985 to 2000, and after re-examining Prince and Rubin's data, we find that the market reaction to all but the most extreme and infrequent events is generally not significant. We suggest that the event study methodology may not generally be useful to study the social costs of litigation, but may be useful for unexpected abnormal litigation events where the potential liabilities (including reputation and other losses triggered by litigation) may far exceed the legal liability reserves set up by firms. We find mixed results for the market impact of litigation against a competitor. When a product liability lawsuit is first filed against a U.S. firm, the market values of the Japanese firms significantly decline. When a Japanese firm is sued for product liability, the U.S. firms register a significant increase in market value. However, these spillover results have to be interpreted with caution because of small sample sizes and possible confounding events.
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Review of law and economics 3.2007, 1, art7 
    ISSN: 1555-5879
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This paper provides a coherent framework for classifying cases with multiple tortfeasors in relation to the efficient allocation of liability across the tortfeasors. We construct a simple model in which various tortfeasors contribute to a loss, and consider efficient liability rules under various assumptions.
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Review of law and economics 3.2007, 2, art2 
    ISSN: 1555-5879
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: We attempt to revise the inspection game used by George Tsebelis to model phenomena in criminal justice. The refinement has been conducted by disaggregating the game payoffs and then using findings from empirical studies to reconstruct the game. In contrast to Tsebelis' propositions, we find that the severity of punishment may affect the offending behavior of individuals. The result also holds for the case in which the authority initiates crime prevention programs, by providing incentives to those who do not have a criminal history. The impact of increasing the severity of punishment on reducing individuals' offending behavior is less certain than that of instigating crime prevention programs. This result holds so long as the authority does not alter the levels of enforcement.
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Review of law and economics 3.2007, 2, art1 
    ISSN: 1555-5879
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: Miller v. Schoene approved the uncompensated destruction of cedar trees that were alternate hosts to a fungus that damaged apples but not cedars. Supreme Court Justice Harlan F. Stone's opinion noted that deciding for either cedar or apple growers would amount to action by the state. Scholars have claimed that Miller marked the demise of the public/private distinction in constitutional law. This article presents historical evidence to the contrary. A widely-accepted standard--higher commercial value--commonly decided whose interests should prevail in such controversies. The analysis also shows that moral hazard explains why cedar owners were denied just compensation, which orchardists had originally been willing to tax themselves to pay. Cedar owners whose land actually gained in value when their trees were cut down nonetheless availed themselves of damages.
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  • 11
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Review of law and economics 3.2007, 2, art13 
    ISSN: 1555-5879
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This paper shows that unilateral-harm contexts with role-type uncertainty can create incentives similar to bilateral-harm contexts. For this purpose, we show that the result of Dharmapala and Hoffmann (2005), namely that standard liability rules do not lead to efficient care choices by injurer and victim if precaution costs are interdependent and harm is unilateral whereas they can in the case of bilateral harm, depends on role-type certainty.
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  • 12
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Review of law and economics 3.2007, 2, art8 
    ISSN: 1555-5879
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: In some recent works, negligence-based liability has been severely criticized. It has been argued that negligence-based liability does not form a convincing basis for liability assignment. Causation-based liability has been proposed as an alternative basis of liability determination. Parisi and Fon (2004) have studied the efficiency properties of the causal apportionment of liability. The authors have shown that when care levels as well as activity levels of the parties affect the causation of an accident, causation based liability does not provide efficient incentives for the parties. In this paper, we assume the activity levels to be constant. Under this assumption, we have demonstrated the existence of liability rules that are efficient and at the same time `consistent' with the requirement of causation liability. In addition, it is shown that under these rules the equilibrium outcome is unique. The analysis has been undertaken in a very general framework.
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  • 13
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Review of law and economics 3.2007, 2, art9 
    ISSN: 1555-5879
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: Harsh sanctions are conventionally assumed to primarily benefit vulnerable targets. Contrary to this perception, this article shows that augmented sanctions often serve the less vulnerable targets. While decreasing crime, harsher sanctions also induce the police to shift enforcement efforts from more to less vulnerable victims. When this shift is substantial, augmented sanctions exacerbate--rather than reduce--the risk to vulnerable victims. Based on this insight, this article suggests several normative implications concerning the efficacy of enhanced sanctions, the importance of victims' funds, and the connection between police operations and apprehension rates.
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  • 14
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Review of law and economics 3.2007, 2, art15 
    ISSN: 1555-5879
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This article develops a model in which firms may commit to disclose varying amounts of two types of information, accuracy information and agency information, and in which a regulator may also mandate disclosures. The resulting analysis provides a way to better understand the relationship between disclosure regulation and social welfare, including issues such as: how disclosure regulation can generate social welfare gains (contra Dye, 1990; Admati & Pfleiderer, 2000), why imposing disclosure requirements on only certain firms and certain information may be efficient, and why stricter mandatory disclosure requirements may be an efficient regulatory response to more robust public securities markets (contra La Porta, Lopez de Silanes, & Shleifer, 2006).
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  • 15
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Review of law and economics 3.2007, 2, art11 
    ISSN: 1555-5879
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: What explains the popularity of law and economics (L&E) in some academic communities and the scarcity of such scholarship in others? Many explanations have been given for the centrality of economic analysis in American legal thought and its marginality in Europe. This article examines what drives scholars to select L&E as a topic for research. It does so by implementing the methodology of many papers in the field - by assuming that regulation and incentives matter. Legal scholars face very different academic incentives in different parts of the world. In some countries, the academic standards for appointment, promotion and tenure encourage legal scholars to concentrate on L&E. In others, they strongly discourage such research. Thus, we should expect wide variation in the participation rate of legal scholars in the L&E discourse across countries. On the other hand, economists are evaluated with similar yardsticks everywhere, and thus their participation rate is likely to vary much less. The hypothesis of this paper is that academic incentives are a major factor in the level of participation in L&E scholarship. This "incentives hypothesis" is presented and then examined empirically with data gathered from the list of authors in L&E journals and the list of participants in L&E conferences. The data generally support the hypothesis. In legal academia, the incentives to focus research on L&E topics are the strongest in Israel, weaker in North America, and weakest in Europe. In fact, the data reveal that lawyers' authorship of L&E papers weighted by population is about ten times higher in Israel than in North America; while in Europe it is almost five times lower than in North America. By comparison, the weighted participation level of economists - who face relatively similar academic environments across countries - in L&E research is not significantly different across countries.
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  • 16
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Review of law and economics 3.2007, 1, art2 
    ISSN: 1555-5879
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: The text of a Laudatio delivered on September 16, 2006 by Professor Francesco Parisi on the occasion of the awarding of an honorary membership in the European Association of Law and Economics (EALE) to Professor Pietro Trimarchi. This was the first such honorary membership awarded by this association.
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  • 17
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Review of law and economics 3.2007, 1, art4 
    ISSN: 1555-5879
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This paper develops a stylized model of international treaty formation and analyzes the different modalities with which states can become part of an international treaty according to the procedures set forth by the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties. We consider the rules governing accession to international treaties, distinguishing between three situations: (i) Treaties for which acceptance of a new member requires unanimous approval of the signatory states with an amendment of the original treaty agreement (closed treaties); (ii) Treaties where acceptance of a new member is made possible through approval by a majority of the existing member states (semi-open treaties); and (iii) Treaties where the original member states have agreed to leave the treaty open for accession by other states (open treaties).
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  • 18
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Review of law and economics 3.2007, 2, art4 
    ISSN: 1555-5879
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: Courts may determine that an offer is irrevocable due to the offeree's reasonable reliance on it. For instance, the landmark case of Drennan v. Star Paving Co. (1958) held a subcontractor's price offer to be irrevocable once it had been relied upon by the general contractor in computing his overall bid. However, a rule of implied irrevocability raises two main difficulties. First, it seems unfair to force the offeror to commit, but not the offeree. Second, from an ex ante perspective, the implied irrevocability rule seems to deter parties from submitting low-priced, unqualified offers. These concerns have led several scholars to argue for modification of the rule. This paper rationalizes the implied irrevocability rule by demonstrating that the above concerns are unfounded. We demonstrate that whereas some restrictions on the offeree's freedom to conduct bid shopping ex post (i.e., after the uncertainties are resolved) are essential in order to allow him to receive viable price offers ex ante, these restrictions need not be absolute nor legally enforced. Partial restrictions, in the form of a self-enforced Binding Range, may well suffice. The plausible existence of a self-enforced Binding Range ensures that offerors have incentives to submit irrevocable bids because they can expect to earn a profit by submitting the best offer. This paper characterizes the optimal size of the Binding Range, and explores what legal provisions should be applied when the self-enforced Binding Range is sub-optimal.
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  • 19
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Review of law and economics 3.2007, 1, art1 
    ISSN: 1555-5879
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: Introduction to the Twenty-Second Annual Conference of the European Association of Law and Economics, Ljubljana, Slovenia
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  • 20
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Review of law and economics 3.2007, 2, art10 
    ISSN: 1555-5879
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: In most countries, wireless communications rely on administrative allocation of radio spectrum. The inefficiencies associated with this centralized approach have led economists, starting with Coase in 1959, to suggest "propertyzing" radio spectrum. Critics of this approach assert that property rights impose prohibitive transaction costs and inhibit development of wireless services. Reforms enacted in Guatemala (in 1996) and El Salvador (in 1997) have largely implemented policies suggested by Coase, yielding a natural experiment. Evidence generated in the mobile telephone market suggests that these regimes are associated with relatively efficient policy outcomes, including abundant spectrum availability and a high degree of competitiveness, and with correspondingly low retail prices and high rates of output (minutes of use). Further, such markets appear to avoid high transaction costs in the public or private sectors. We conclude that these liberal reforms tend to produce results consistent with Coase's policy conjecture.
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  • 21
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Review of law and economics 3.2007, 3, art1 
    ISSN: 1555-5879
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: The making of the information/knowledge society has driven a flourishing body of literature on the law and economics of copyright. This paper introduces the articles collected in the following symposium, produced by a number of scholars participating in the lively worldwide community devoted to the study of the economic role of copyright law in light of current technological change. The aim of these writings as a whole is to broaden the analytical perspective and stimulate further research, thanks to a wide selection of topics related to behavioral analysis, competition policy, insurance, cultural economics and other fields.
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  • 22
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Review of law and economics 3.2007, 3, art3 
    ISSN: 1555-5879
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This paper considers how the economics of intellectual property can benefit from what has been published in the area of the economics of insurance. The objective is to show that the two areas of study are sufficiently related for the insights of the latter to be relevant to the former. Since the economics of insurance is a very mature subject, while the economics of IP is much younger, it seems that there could be many valuable lessons from insurance that can be imported into IP, at least at a first degree of approximation.
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  • 23
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Review of law and economics 3.2007, 3, art4 
    ISSN: 1555-5879
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: The music and movie industries have recently added individual consumers as the target of the file sharing lawsuits. It is often questioned why the industries use substantial resources to fight in the courtrooms instead of making better and more affordable products. In this article, we first analyze the reasons of the industry behavior suggesting that the court strategy may be in fact more effective, at least in the short term, than it should be based on pure economic calculations. However, the empirical evidence seems to imply that lawsuits fail to send a strong signal to individuals about the society's supposedly negative attitude towards file sharing. General deterrence from the threat of being sued does not help in the end either because people are risk seeking in the face of making a decision between a certain and probable loss. In conclusion, we argue that the court strategy cannot be used to establish any social norm with a long lasting effect on individual behavior as long as the peer pressure works towards the opposite direction.
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  • 24
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Review of law and economics 3.2007, 3, art2 
    ISSN: 1555-5879
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: Copyright law provides an excellent case study with which to evaluate Harold Demsetz's theory of property rights. Regardless of how one feels about the relationship between property and intellectual property, it is hard to escape the fact that intellectual property rights have expanded and grown more property-like and more privatized in recent decades. In this article, I critique the undeniable Demsetzian trend in copyright law and challenge some of the fundamental premises upon which rest the normative arguments for continued privatization and propertization of intellectual resources. First, I focus on the perceived benefits of internalizing externalities, arguing that externalities do not necessarily distort incentives or, more generally, the market allocation of resources. For many externalities, there is no efficiency benefit to internalization (whether accomplished by Pigouvian taxes/subsidies or property rights). In the end, the benefits of internalization must be carefully assessed rather than assumed. The view that increasing the degree of internalization through private property rights inevitably leads to increased incentives to invest in creation or distribution is not well-established in either theory or practice. Second, I focus on the frequently-invoked solution of efficient licensing and the "logic" that property rights should be extended "into every corner in which people derive enjoyment and value...[so that] signals of consumer preference [may] trigger and direct [producers'] investments" (Goldstein, 1994). I argue that a fundamental flaw in this logic undermines the efficient licensing hypothesis. Social demand for individuals' access to and use of copyright protected works often exceeds private demand. Purchasers'/licensees' willingness to pay reflects only their private demand and does not take into account value that others might realize as a result of their use. As I explain, many uses of copyrighted works generate value for third-parties. Finally, drawing from the first two points, I argue that, from a Coasean perspective, both externalities and property rights have symmetrical and reciprocal potentials to distort the market allocation of resources. A priori and devoid of context, one cannot say that the potential distortions caused by a property right, externality, or incremental change in a property right have a net positive or negative effect on social welfare.
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  • 25
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Review of law and economics 3.2007, 3, art7 
    ISSN: 1555-5879
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This paper investigates the interplay between copyright law and antitrust law in two distinct respects. We first argue that the origin of copyright seems to be rooted not only in the need to foster the production and the spread of knowledge but also in the necessity of limiting market power on the side of distributors. We then show the potential impact on market competition of the evolution of copyright as a property rule. While property rules reduce transaction costs in the standard case of bilateral monopoly over the exchange of information goods, they might increase transaction costs. When coupled with market power, a property rule enables the right holder to control uses and prices so as to implement entry deterrence strategies against potential competitors. Conversely, we argue that reversing property rules in favor of competitors or switching to liability rules for copyright may restore competitive outcomes. This conclusion brings new insights on the application of the essential facility doctrine to copyrighted works.
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  • 26
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Review of law and economics 3.2007, 3, art6 
    ISSN: 1555-5879
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: Over the last century, performers gradually acquired statutory protection of their economic and moral rights. These rights are not copyright in the legal sense but neighboring rights and until recently, they were mainly remuneration rights that are collectively administered. With the WPPT (WIPO Performers and Phonograms Treaty), performers now have individual exclusive rights for digital performances; this leads to the question: what has motivated this change - is it a change in the perception of the value of performer or a change brought about by the changing technology of copying or, indeed, a change that reflects different economic costs and benefits? The paper discusses the role of copyright law as an incentive to performers and asks if the economic role of the performer is so different from that of the author. The conclusion is that a complex interaction of the legal regulations, economic conditions and institutional arrangements for administering these new rights will determine the outcome.
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  • 27
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Review of law and economics 3.2007, 3, art8 
    ISSN: 1555-5879
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This paper uses a strategic entry-deterrence framework to study the relationship between copying cost, and a monopolist's profit and product quality. The potential entrant is a fake-producer producing and selling identical copies of the monopolist's product. The monopolist's subgame perfect equilibrium quality and profit is either unaffected or positively affected by changes in the copying cost. Tariffs on copying devices may be an effective copyright right protection instrument. Though an increase in tariff increases the product quality and monopolist's profit, its welfare effects are ambiguous.
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  • 28
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Review of law and economics 3.2007, 3, art5 
    ISSN: 1555-5879
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: Copyright protection can be divided into ?ve levels: subject matter, level of abstraction, exceptions, term limit, and restricted acts. Although copyright exceptions, in particular the fair use doctrine, and term limit have been subject to signi?cant economic analyses, studies on protection and the limits of protection of subject matter, and level of abstraction in copyright are still fairly scarce. Furthermore, the dominant model for optimal copyright protection is problematic for it requires a standard-based copyright doctrine to achieve what was postulated. Since copyright doctrines in respect of protection based on the level of abstraction are more rule-based in nature, an alternative explanation is in order. In a recent article titled "Copyright as a Rule of Evidence", Douglas Lichtman (2003) hinted such an approach where evidence plays a role in explaining this set of doctrines. In this paper, we use an abstraction and a probabilistic model to explain copyright doctrines. Copyright doctrines such as the idea-expression dichotomy, the originality requirement, de minimis rule, substantiality requirement, merger doctrine, and the scènes á faire doctrine, have the effect of creating a protection divide. Doctrines such as the causal connection requirement, independent creation defence, and the objective similarity requirement, further create an inference divide. We show that the protection and inference divides are relevant in protecting the literal and non-literal dimensions in a copyrighted work. Furthermore, we ?nd that between the protection divide and the inference divide, there is a region of non-strict liability protection. All these three regions, and the related copyright doctrines, are explained by an evidence theory of minimising the risk of court error in deciding infringement cases.
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    Review of law and economics 3.2007, 2, art14 
    ISSN: 1555-5879
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    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: Sequential innovation with actual patent infringement and uncertainty in litigation is analyzed. Comparative statics shows that within a wide range of model parameters, a basic researcher holding a patent is able to extract all of the profit facilitated by the basic innovation. The patent holder achieves this by offering a licensing contract which the subsequent innovator accepts in the shadow of paying infringement damages. It is further demonstrated that, under rather general circumstances, broader patent breadth may diminish the patent holder's incentive to innovate: that is to extract all of the profit from the subsequent innovator commercializing the innovation.
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    Review of law and economics 3.2007, 2, art6 
    ISSN: 1555-5879
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    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: Many legal scholars believe that equity should be considered in designing legal rules. Kaplow and Shavell (1994) seriously challenged this approach. They proved that the tax transfer system is superior to legal rules in redistributing wealth. This paper reexamines their 'double distortion' claim, presenting two main arguments. The first shows that the 'double distortion' claim is not necessarily valid under welfarism. In particular, under an ex post approach to welfarism, which generally implies that society pays attention to the ex post (actual) rather than expected redistribution, the proof of the tax superiority breaks down. Secondly, and more importantly, it is proven that, in principle, tort rules can easily be designed to circumvent 'double distortion' effects. Thus, the tort system is not inherently more inefficient than the tax-transfer system in accomplishing redistribution. The paper generally concludes that although there are often no good reasons for redistribution within the legal system, theoretically and a priori it is not an inferior redistribution mechanism.
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    The @international journal of biostatistics 3 (2007), S. 12 
    ISSN: 1557-4679
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    Topics: Biology , Mathematics , Medicine
    Notes: Understanding the genetic underpinnings to complex diseases requires consideration of sophisticated analytical methods designed to uncover intricate associations across multiple predictor variables. At the same time, knowledge of whether single nucleotide polymorphisms within a gene are on the same (in cis) or on different (in trans) chromosomal copies, may provide crucial information about measures of disease progression. In association studies of unrelated individuals, allelic phase is generally unobservable, generating an additional analytical challenge. In this manuscript, we describe a novel approach that combines multiple imputation and random forests for this high-dimensional, unobservable data setting. An application to a cohort of HIV-1 infected individuals receiving anti-retroviral therapies is presented. A simulation study is also presented to characterize method performance.
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    The @international journal of biostatistics 3 (2007), S. 9 
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    Topics: Biology , Mathematics , Medicine
    Notes: Child growth is characterised by increases in height, and increases in maturational status. Functional data analysis provides a tool to separate these two sources of variation (registration) and differentiates between the variation in maturational tempo (temporal, or "phase" variation) and the variation in height (amplitude variation). We extended this concept by combining Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the Maximum Likelihood Principle. Longitudinal data on height were obtained from two large growth studies from Lublin, Poland, and Zurich, Switzerland, with altogether 361 children. Variation in amplitude monotonically rises with age; variation in phase peaks during puberty. During mid-puberty, phase variation is large and explains up to 40 percent of total height variance in girls, and up to 50 percent in boys. Eight amplitude and 4 phase components appeared biologically significant. The largest amplitude component explained 91% of the amplitude variance and is characterised by an almost horizontal pattern. The largest phase component explained 66% (boys) and 63% (girls) of phase variance, rises throughout childhood and reaches up to 0.85 years in adolescent boys, and up to 0.75 years in adolescent girls. Phase components significantly correlated with the clinical signs of puberty. The combination of PCA and the Maximum Likelihood Principle provides a new, powerful and automatic tool for growth modelling that includes estimates of future growth, adult stature and developmental tempo. Preliminary results indicate that this approach can be used for automatised screening purposes.
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    The @international journal of biostatistics 3 (2007), S. 10 
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    Topics: Biology , Mathematics , Medicine
    Notes: Analyses of individual disease-exposure data within a population are useful when exposure of interest varies sufficiently within the population. When the within-population variance of exposure is limited, however, power of the individual-data analysis is reduced. In such situations, aggregated-data analyses of disease data across populations, with a sample of individual exposure data from each population, can be powerful in estimating the exposure effect if between-population variation of exposure is large. In this paper, we consider a new analytical framework that is a combination of the individual- and aggregated-data analyses, based on an estimating equation approach. The proposed analysis utilizes strengths from individual data and aggregated data in the estimation of the exposure effect of interest, depending on which of the exposure variations (within- versus between-population) dominates. Simulation studies under various different scenarios were performed to show the strengths of the proposed approach in the estimation of the exposure effects of interest.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 11.2007, 3, art1 
    ISSN: 1081-1826
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: This paper extends the Fractionally integrated GARCH (FIGARCH) model by incorporating Normal Inverse Gaussian Distribution (NIG). The proposed model is flexible and allows one to model time-variation, long memory, fat tails as well as asymmetry and skewness in the distribution of financial returns. GARCH and FIGARCH models for daily log exchange rate returns with Normal, Student's t and NIG error distributions as well as GARCH/FIGARCH-in-mean models with t errors are estimated and compared both in terms of sample fit as well as out-of-the-sample predictive ability in several dimensions. The FIGARCH model with symmetric and asymmetric NIG errors outperform alternatives both in-sample fit and 1-day and 5-day ahead predictions of the quartiles of the exchange rate return distributions.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 11.2007, 4, art2 
    ISSN: 1081-1826
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: We present a novel specification of a dynamic multinomial ordered choice model, where the latent variable is a function of strictly stationary exogenous variables and lags of the choice variable. We prove that such a model with weakly dependent errors will have a strictly stationary solution which is L-2 near epoch dependent. We also derive consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator for a probit specification of the model. We illustrate a possible application of the model by estimating a discrete version of a robust ``difference" monetary policy rule for the period 1990:2006 at a monthly frequency.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 11.2007, 4, art3 
    ISSN: 1081-1826
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: One of the most familiar empirical stylized facts about output dynamics in the United States is the positive autocorrelation of output growth. This paper shows that positive autocorrelation can be better captured by shifts between business cycle states rather than by the standard view of autoregressive coefficients. The result is extremely robust to different nonlinear alternative models and applies not only to output but also to the most relevant macroeconomic variables.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 11.2007, 4, art4 
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: We propose a simple computational method in the context of generalized method of moments for improving the efficiency of regression coefficient estimates. The gains in efficiency arise by incorporating additional moment conditions in the estimation framework based on maximal overlap wavelet packet transforms of the continuous explanatory variables. A major advantage of the proposed method is that it does not require additional exogenous auxiliary information but relies on wavelet packet transforms of the existing continuous explanatory variables. Based on existing theory, we provide theoretical arguments for the proposed methodology, for both linear and non-linear models, and demonstrate its advantages with both an empirical application concerning two brand demand models and a Monte Carlo simulation study.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 11.2007, 1, art6 
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: We consider long horizon regression models where the disturbance and the predictor are possibly fractionally integrated. Asymptotic distributions of the OLS estimator and of the test statistic are given. It is found that the t-statistic diverges at the rate of square root of T, where T is the sample size. Thus, it is desirable to use the scaled test statistic, as it converges to a well-defined limit, which depends on the memory parameters through the functionals on the fractional Wiener processes. Simulation studies present some empirical distributions of the scaled test statistic according to different values of the memory parameters. The proposed model with fractional processes is empirically more tractable than the model with local to unity processes, since memory parameters are consistently estimable unlike localizing parameters in the latter model.
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    The @international journal of biostatistics 3 (2007), S. 4 
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    Topics: Biology , Mathematics , Medicine
    Notes: We consider random design nonparametric regression when the response variable is subject to right censoring. Following the work of Fan and Gijbels (1994), a common approach to this problem is to apply what has been termed a censoring unbiased transformation to the data to obtain surrogate responses, and then enter these surrogate responses with covariate data into standard smoothing algorithms. Existing censoring unbiased transformations generally depend on either the conditional survival function of the response of interest, or that of the censoring variable. We show that a mapping introduced in another statistical context is in fact a censoring unbiased transformation with a beneficial double robustness property, in that it can be used for nonparametric regression if either of these two conditional distributions are estimated accurately. Advantages of using this transformation for smoothing are illustrated in simulations and on the Stanford heart transplant data.
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    The @international journal of biostatistics 3 (2007), S. 13 
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    Topics: Biology , Mathematics , Medicine
    Notes: Mortality rate ratios and the associated proportional hazards models have been used to summarize the effect of Alzheimer's disease on longevity. However, the mortality rate ratios vary by age and therefore do not provide a simple parsimonious summary of the effect of the disease on lifespan. Instead, we propose a new parameter that is defined by an additive multistate model. The proposed multistate model accounts for different stages of disease progression. The underlying assumption of the model is that the effect of disease on mortality is to add a constant amount to death rates once the disease progresses from an early to late stage. We explored the properties of the proposed model; in particular the behavior of the mortality rate ratio and median survival that is induced by the model. We combined information from several data sources to estimate the parameter in our model. We found that the effect of Alzheimer's disease on longevity is to increase the absolute annual risk of death by about 8% once a person progressed to late stage disease. Most importantly, we find that this additive effect is the same regardless of the patients' age or gender. Thus, the proposed additive multi-state model provides a parsimonious and clinically interpretable description of the effects of Alzheimer's disease on mortality.
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    The @international journal of biostatistics 3 (2007), S. 1 
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    Topics: Biology , Mathematics , Medicine
    Notes: Under the setting of a case-cohort design, covariate values are ascertained for a smaller subgroup of the original study cohort which typically is a representative sample from a population. Individuals with a specific event outcome are selected to the second stage study group as cases and an additional subsample is selected to act as a control group. We carry out analysis of such a design using conditional likelihood where the likelihood expression is conditioned on the ascertainment to the second stage study group. Such likelihood expression involves the probability of ascertainment which need to be expressed in terms of the model parameters. We present examples of conditional likelihoods for models for categorical response and time-to-event response. We show that the conditional likelihood inference leads to valid estimation of population parameters. Our application considers joint estimation of haplotype-event association parameters and population haplotype frequencies based on SNP genotype data collected under a case-cohort design.
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    The @international journal of biostatistics 3 (2007), S. 5 
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    Topics: Biology , Mathematics , Medicine
    Notes: As a generalization of the accelerated failure time models, we consider parametric models of lifetime Y, where the conditional mean E(Y|X;beta) can depend nonlinearly on the covariates X and some parameters beta. The error distribution can be heteroscedastic and dependent on X. With observed data subject to right censoring, we propose regression analysis for beta based on Kaplan-Meier estimates of the means over several regions of X. Consistency and asymptotic distributional properties of the estimators are established under general conditions. A resulting estimator of beta is shown to be the sum of two possibly dependent asymptotic normal quantities, based on which conservative confidence intervals and tests are derived. Simulation studies are conducted to investigate the performance of the proposed estimator and to compare it with Buckley-Jame's method. To illustrate the methodology, we study an example with kidney transplant data, where a nonlinear relationship called "mixtures-of-experts", proposed in the neural networks literature, is used to model the relationship between the survival time and the age of the patients.
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    The @international journal of biostatistics 3 (2007), S. 11 
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    Topics: Biology , Mathematics , Medicine
    Notes: We present a reformulation of the Benjamini-Hochberg method that is useful in 'large-scale' multiple testing problems based on discrete test statistics and derive its basic asymptotic (as the number of hypotheses tends to infinity) properties, subsuming earlier results. A set of gene expression data is used to illustrate the workings of the method in a multiple testing problem based on Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Mann-Whitney statistics.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 11.2007, 3, art4 
    ISSN: 1081-1826
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: We estimate real US GDP growth as a threshold autoregressive process, and construct confidence intervals for the parameter estimates. However, there are various approaches that can be used in constructing the confidence intervals. We construct confidence intervals for the slope coefficients and the threshold using asymptotic results and bootstrap methods, finding that the results for the different methods have very different economic implications. We perform a Monte Carlo experiment to evaluate the various methods. Surprisingly, the confidence intervals are wide enough to cast doubt on the assertion that the time-series responses of GDP to negative growth rates are different than the responses to positive growth rates.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 11.2007, 1, art5 
    ISSN: 1081-1826
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: This study presents a novel model for analyzing duration data, called the smooth transition autoregressive conditional duration model of price and duration, which considers past price changes and durations. The model enables the process of the conditional expected duration to switch in a smooth transition way, broadening the autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model in Engle and Russell (1998). The model is applied to empirical data, and estimation results indicate that the process of the expected duration is nonlinear. The expected trade duration behavior on the market opening is affected by past trade durations, while the expected trade duration behavior during the trading hours is affected by past price changes and trade durations. Expected trade durations are much more persistent in the upward market compared to the downward market. Shocks to trade durations are more persistent on the market opening and gradually decrease in the downward market.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 11.2007, 3, art5 
    ISSN: 1081-1826
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Measuring country exchange rates relative to a common reference basket results in a set of no-arbitrage prices, unlike trade-weighted indexes, the usual method of comparing country exchange rate histories. The reference basket is analogous to a portfolio, and its choice can be resolved by drawing on required economic interpretations or uses. We use currency reference rates to examine the historical variability of different currencies over designated cyclical bands. The temporal decompositions used are those provided by wavelet analysis, which is light on maintained assumptions about data generating processes. Some countries, notably Japan and New Zealand do exhibit a powerful but irregular medium term cycle, while others are much more stable. Implications are briefly examined for investment, hedging, monetary policy and common currency studies.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 11.2007, 3, art6 
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: The large decline in output volatility experienced by most industrialized countries in the last decades has been thoroughly analyzed using standard time and frequency domain methods. In this paper we investigate the issue of moderation of volatility in G-7 economies and its sources, applying a multi-scaling approach to the industrial production indices of G-7 countries between 1961:1-2006:10. Using the MODWT estimates of wavelet variance we provide a scale-based analysis of variance that allows us to characterize the decline in volatility and to detect the importance of the various explanations of the moderation. The main scale-by-scale results stemming from multi scale analysis of variance are: i) a reduction in volatility which, although displayed by all the G-7 countries, is not uniform across time scales (as the decline is larger at short-term scales than at business cycle scales for France and Italy, and quite uniform across scale for the UK and the US) nor countries (as the decline is significant for a subset of countries only, i.e. France, Italy, the UK and the US); and ii) the moderation has to be attributable to the decline in the variance of both common (in the 1970s) and country-specific (in the 1960s) exogenous disturbances hitting the economy.
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    The @international journal of biostatistics 3 (2007), S. 2 
    ISSN: 1557-4679
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    Topics: Biology , Mathematics , Medicine
    Notes: Characterizing the genetic correlates to complex diseases requires consideration of a large number of potentially informative biological markers. In addition, attention to alignment of alleles within or across chromosomal pairs, commonly referred to as phase, may be essential for uncovering true biological associations. In the context of population based association studies, phase is generally unobservable. Preservation of type-1 error in a setting with multiple testing presents a further analytical challenge. This manuscript combines a likelihood-based approach to handling missing-ness in phase with a resampling method to adjust for multiple testing. Through simulations we demonstrate preservation of the family-wise error rate and reasonable power for detecting associations. The method is applied to a cohort of 626 HIV-1 infected individuals receiving highly active anti-retroviral therapies, to ascertain potential genetic contributions to abnormalities in lipid profiles. The haplotypic effects of 2 genes, hepatic lipase (HL) and endothelial lipase (EL), on high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) are tested.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 11.2007, 1, art2 
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: This paper investigates the transmission mechanisms of structural shocks and volatility between economies through trade links, and the effects of synchronization on business cycles. We investigate the transmission of outside structural shocks and the fluctuations that the shocks generate. We identify conditions under which international economic links reduce the volatility and unpredictability of economic output emanating from shocks within the individual economies. Under certain conditions, devaluation of a country's currency causes reduction in the unpredictability of the business cycle and its volatility as seen by that country's exporters, while increased valuation of a country's currency produces higher unpredictability and volatility, as seen by the country's importers.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 11.2007, 4, art5 
    ISSN: 1081-1826
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Despite expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, the Japanese real economy has been stagnating since the bubble bursting in the early nineties. Within a multivariate setup, this paper proposes to test for and date apossible structural shift in the response of Japanese macroeconomic fluctuations to aggregate supply and aggregate demand shocks. The econometric methodology directly derives from Andrews (1993) and Bai, Lumsdaine and Stock (1998) theoretical results. Our empirical study from monthly post-1980 observations reveals i) a significant structural break in the end of 1991, and ii) a sharp decrease in the influence of demand shocks on Japanese output fluctuations after this date.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 11.2007, 2, art6 
    ISSN: 1081-1826
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: This paper develops a change-point model that can endogenously detect a structural shift in a time series of durations. The model is applied to NBER data on U.S. business cycle durations for expansions and contractions. There are two primary results. First, the change-point model endogenously detects a shift in the distribution for the phases of the U.S. business cycle around WWII. The pattern of duration dependence for both contractions and expansions correspond to earlier work, such as Diebold and Rudebusch (1990), Sichel (1991) and Zuehlke(2003), that exogenously split the sample at WWII. The second result is that the change-points for expansions and contractions generally occur earlier than WWII when controlling for various factors, such as the duration of the preceding half-cycle, wars and a trend variable. For expansions, the only significant explanatory variable is a trend, resulting in each successive expansion's hazard rate uniformly shifting down. For contractions, both a trend and the lagged duration of the preceding expansion are found, when estimated separately, to be significant. Controlling for a trend, contractions no longer exhibit positive duration dependence following the estimated change-point.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 11.2007, 3, art3 
    ISSN: 1081-1826
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: In this paper we analyze the dynamics shown by the neoclassical one-sector growth model with differential savings as in Bohm and Kaas (2000) while assuming CES production function and the labour force dynamic described by the Beverton Holt equation (see Beverton and Holt, 1957). The resulting dynamic system is bidimensional, autonomous and triangular: we investigate its qualitative and quantitative dynamic properties. The study herewith presented aims at confirming that the system can exhibit cycles or even a chaotic dynamic pattern, if shareholders save more than workers, when the elasticity of substitution drops below one (so that capital income declines). The analytical results are supplemented by numerical experiments.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 11.2007, 3, art2 
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: This paper considers the problem of testing for and dating changes (at unknown points) in the order of integration of a time series between different trend-stationary and difference-stationary regimes. While existing procedures in the literature are designed for processes displaying only a single such change in persistence, our proposed methodology is also valid in the presence of multiple changes in persistence. Our procedure is based on sequences of doubly-recursive implementations of the regression-based unit root statistic of Elliott et al. (1996). The asymptotic validity of our procedure is demonstrated analytically. We use Monte Carlo methods to simulate both finite sample and asymptotic critical values for our proposed testing procedure and to simulate the finite sample behaviour of our procedure against a variety of single and multiple persistence change series. The procedure is shown to work well in practice. The impact of deterministic level and trend breaks on our procedure is also discussed. An empirical application of the procedure to interest rate data is considered.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 11.2007, 1, art7 
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Empirical results from long-horizon regression tests have been influential in the finance literature. Yet, it has come to be understood that traditional long-horizon tests may be unreliable in finite samples when regressors are persistent and when the horizon is long relative to sample size. Recent research has provided valid alternative inference procedures in long-horizon regression in the case for which the regressor follows a near-unit root autoregressive process. However, in small samples, such processes may sometimes be difficult to distinguish with confidence from other persistent data generating processes, such as those displaying long-memory or structural breaks. In this paper, we demonstrate a simple means by which existing nonparametric sign and signed rank tests may be applied to provide exact inference in long-horizon predictive tests, without requiring any modeling assumptions on the regressor. Employing this robust approach, we find evidence of stock return predictability at moderate horizons using short-term interest rates, but little evidence of either short or long-run predictability using dividend-price ratios.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 11.2007, 2, art1 
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    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: This paper proposes a dynamic proportional hazard (PH) model with non-specified baseline hazard for the modelling of autoregressive duration processes. By employing a categorization of the underlying durations we reformulate the PH model as an ordered response model based on extreme value distributed errors. In order to capture persistent serial dependence in the duration process, we extend the model by an observation driven ARMA dynamic based on generalized errors. We illustrate the maximum likelihood estimation of both the model parameters and discrete points of the underlying unspecified baseline survivor function. The dynamic properties of the model as well as the estimation quality are investigated in a Monte Carlo study. It is illustrated that the model is a useful approach to estimate conditional failure probabilities based on (persistent) serially dependent duration data which might be subject to censoring mechanisms. In an empirical study based on financial transaction data we apply the model to estimate conditional asset price change probabilities. An evaluation of the forecasting properties of the model shows that the proposed approach is a promising competitor to well-established ACD type models.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 11.2007, 2, art5 
    ISSN: 1081-1826
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Diebold and Rudebusch (1991) and Haubrich (1993) argue that, when income follows a fractionally differenced process, the Deaton's excessive smoothness paradox can be resolved. A key to the success of their result relies on a valid test for fractional integration. However, most of the tests in the literature are nested within fractional alternatives. This paper designs a new test for a more general hypothesis that the true data generating process is indeed fractionally integrated. The test is applied to the real disposable income per capita of the U.S. and the real quarterly GDP data of the G7 industrial countries.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 11.2007, 2, art2 
    ISSN: 1081-1826
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: This paper analyzes the equilibrium efficiency in a Ramsey model with habit formation. Uniqueness and saddle-path stability of the steady state is proved analytically. The competitive equilibrium is efficient at the steady state. However, the presence of externalities arising from average past consumption renders the competitive equilibrium inefficient off the steady state because agents do not take (fully) into account the indirect effect that consumption has in utility through its influence on habits. The efficient equilibrium can be decentralized by means of a consumption tax that converges to an arbitrary constant value, or by means of an income tax that converges to zero.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 11.2007, 1, art1 
    ISSN: 1081-1826
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: This paper shows that the Zero-Information-Limit-Condition (ZILC) formulated by Nelson and Startz (2006) holds in the GARCH (1,1) model. As a result, the GARCH estimate tends to have too small a standard error relative to the true one when the ARCH parameter is small, even when sample size becomes very large. In combination with an upward bias in the GARCH estimate, the small standard error will often lead to the spurious inference that volatility is highly persistent when it is not. We develop an empirical strategy to deal with this issue and show how it applies to real datasets.
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    The @international journal of biostatistics 3 (2007), S. 7 
    ISSN: 1557-4679
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Biology , Mathematics , Medicine
    Notes: The objective of this work is to introduce a new method called the Survivorship Instantaneous Log-odds Ratios (SILOR); to illustrate the creation of SILOR from empirical bivariate survival functions; to also derive standard errors of estimation; to compare results with those derived from logistic regression. Hip fracture, AGE and BMI from the Third National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (NHANES III) were used to calculate empirical survival functions for the adverse health outcome (AHO) and non-AHO. A stable copula was used to create a parametric bivariate survival function, that was fitted to the empirical bivariate survival function. The bivariate survival function had SILOR contours which are not constant. The proposed method has better advantages than logistic regression by following two reasons. The comparison deals with (i) the shapes of the survival surfaces, S(X1, X2), and (ii) the isobols of the log-odds ratios. When using logistic regression the survival surface is either a hyper plane or at most a conic section. Our approach preserves the shape of the survival surface in two dimensions, and the isobols are observed in every detail instead of being overly smoothed by a regression with no more than a second degree polynomial. The present method is straightforward, and it captures all but random variability of the data.
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    The @international journal of biostatistics 3 (2007), S. 3 
    ISSN: 1557-4679
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Biology , Mathematics , Medicine
    Notes: Marginal structural models (MSM) are an important class of models in causal inference. Given a longitudinal data structure observed on a sample of n independent and identically distributed experimental units, MSM model the counterfactual outcome distribution corresponding with a static treatment intervention, conditional on user-supplied baseline covariates. Identification of a static treatment regimen-specific outcome distribution based on observational data requires, beyond the standard sequential randomization assumption, the assumption that each experimental unit has positive probability of following the static treatment regimen. The latter assumption is called the experimental treatment assignment (ETA) assumption, and is parameter-specific. In many studies the ETA is violated because some of the static treatment interventions to be compared cannot be followed by all experimental units, due either to baseline characteristics or to the occurrence of certain events over time. For example, the development of adverse effects or contraindications can force a subject to stop an assigned treatment regimen.In this article we propose causal effect models for a user-supplied set of realistic individualized treatment rules. Realistic individualized treatment rules are defined as treatment rules which always map into the set of possible treatment options. Thus, causal effect models for realistic treatment rules do not rely on the ETA assumption and are fully identifiable from the data. Further, these models can be chosen to generalize marginal structural models for static treatment interventions. The estimating function methodology of Robins and Rotnitzky (1992) (analogue to its application in Murphy, et. al. (2001) for a single treatment rule) provides us with the corresponding locally efficient double robust inverse probability of treatment weighted estimator. In addition, we define causal effect models for "intention-to-treat" regimens. The proposed intention-to-treat interventions enforce a static intervention until the time point at which the next treatment does not belong to the set of possible treatment options, at which point the intervention is stopped. We provide locally efficient estimators of such intention-to-treat causal effects.
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    The @international journal of biostatistics 3 (2007), S. 6 
    ISSN: 1557-4679
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Biology , Mathematics , Medicine
    Notes: Consider a longitudinal observational or controlled study in which one collects chronological data over time on a random sample of subjects. The time-dependent process one observes on each subject contains time-dependent covariates, time-dependent treatment actions, and an outcome process or single final outcome of interest. A statically optimal individualized treatment rule (as introduced in van der Laan et. al. (2005), Petersen et. al. (2007)) is a treatment rule which at any point in time conditions on a user-supplied subset of the past, computes the future static treatment regimen that maximizes a (conditional) mean future outcome of interest, and applies the first treatment action of the latter regimen. In particular, Petersen et. al. (2007) clarified that, in order to be statically optimal, an individualized treatment rule should not depend on the observed treatment mechanism. Petersen et. al. (2007) further developed estimators of statically optimal individualized treatment rules based on a past capturing all confounding of past treatment history on outcome. In practice, however, one typically wishes to find individualized treatment rules responding to a user-supplied subset of the complete observed history, which may not be sufficient to capture all confounding. The current article provides an important advance on Petersen et. al. (2007) by developing locally efficient double robust estimators of statically optimal individualized treatment rules responding to such a user-supplied subset of the past. However, failure to capture all confounding comes at a price; the static optimality of the resulting rules becomes origin-specific. We explain origin-specific static optimality, and discuss the practical importance of the proposed methodology. We further present the results of a data analysis in which we estimate a statically optimal rule for switching antiretroviral therapy among patients infected with resistant HIV virus.
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    The @international journal of biostatistics 3 (2007), S. 8 
    ISSN: 1557-4679
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Biology , Mathematics , Medicine
    Notes: In individuals infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), distributions of quantitative HIV RNA measurements may be highly left-censored due to values falling below assay detection limits (DL). It is of the interest to find the relationship between plasma and semen viral loads. To address this type of problem, we developed an empirical goodness-of-fit test to check the Clayton model assumption for bivariate truncated data. We also used truncated tau to estimate the dependence parameter in the Clayton model for this type of data. It turns out that the proposed methodology works for both truncated and fixed left censored bivariate data. The proposed test procedure is demonstrated using an HIV data set, and statistical inference is drawn based on corresponding test result.
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    The @international journal of biostatistics 3 (2007), S. 14 
    ISSN: 1557-4679
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Biology , Mathematics , Medicine
    Notes: Observational studies of prescription medications and other medical interventions based on administrative data are increasingly used to inform regulatory and clinical decision making. The validity of such studies is often questioned, however, because the available data may not contain measurements of important prognostic variables that guide treatment decisions. Recently, approaches to this problem have been proposed that use instrumental variables (IV) defined at the level of an individual health care provider or aggregation of providers. Implicitly, these approaches attempt to estimate causal effects by using differences in medical practice patterns as a quasi-experiment. Although preference-based IV methods may usefully complement standard statistical approaches, they make assumptions that are unfamiliar to most biomedical researchers and therefore the validity of such an analysis can be hard to evaluate. Here, we describe a simple framework based on a single unobserved dichotomous variable that can be used to explore how violations of IV assumptions and treatment effect heterogeneity may bias the standard IV estimator with respect to the average treatment effect in the population. This framework suggests various ways to anticipate the likely direction of bias using both empirical data and commonly available subject matter knowledge, such as whether medications or medical procedures tend to be overused, underused, or often misused. This approach is described in the context of a study comparing the gastrointestinal bleeding risk attributable to different non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 11.2007, 1, art4 
    ISSN: 1081-1826
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: The quasi-geometric (hyperbolic) literature typically assumes that agents are short-run impatient. In this paper, we deviate from this assumption by considering an economy in which a fraction of the population is short-run patient and the remaining population is short-run impatient. In a calibrated version of a neoclassical growth model with uninsurable risk and liquidity constraints, we find that the presence of few short-run patient and many short-run impatient agents leads to empirically plausible degrees of wealth inequality.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 11.2007, 2, art4 
    ISSN: 1081-1826
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: In this paper we present an endogenous growth model with environmental pollution and public capital. As to pollution we assume that it is a by-product of aggregate production and that it negatively affects utility of the household but not production possibilities directly. The paper studies the dynamics of the model and demonstrates that there exists either a unique balanced growth path which is a saddle point or there exist two balanced growth paths with one being locally saddle point stable and one being asymptotically stable.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 11.2007, 1, art3 
    ISSN: 1081-1826
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: In this paper we systematically compare forecasting accuracy of hypothesis testing procedures with that of a model combining algorithm. Testing procedures are commonly used in applications to select a model, based on which forecasts are made. However, besides the well-known difficulty in dealing with multiple tests, the testing approach has a potentially serious drawback: controlling the probability of Type I error at a conventional level (e.g., 0.05) often excessively favors the null, which can be problematic for the purpose of forecasting. In addition, as shown in this paper, testing procedures can be very unstable, which results in high variability in the forecasts.Selecting a candidate forecast by testing and combining forecasts are both useful but for complementary situations. Currently, there seems to be little guidance in the literature on when combining should be preferred to selecting. We propose instability measures that are helpful for a forecaster to gauge the difficulty in selecting a single optimal forecast.Based on empirical evidences and theoretical considerations, we advocate the use of forecast combining when there is considerable instability in model selection by testing procedures. On the other hand, when there is little instability, testing procedures could work well or even better than forecast combining in terms of forecast accuracy.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 11.2007, 2, art3 
    ISSN: 1081-1826
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: The goal of this paper is to illuminate the capability of the component GARCH model of Ding and Granger (1996) and Engle and Lee (1999) to reproduce the long memory-type behavior of financial volatility. The potential of this model to capture the long memory dynamics observed in measures of financial volatility has been documented recently by Maheu (2005) and Deo et al. (2006), who base their conclusions on simulation techniques and a forecasting exercise, respectively. In this paper, a simple explanation for these observations is provided, which is based on the theoretical autocorrelation function (ACF) of the component GARCH model. We also elucidate why even higher-order GARCH models with Bollerslev's (1986) nonnegativity constraints enforced cannot mimic the long memory effects. The reasoning is supported with several empirical examples, for which we explicitly calculate the theoretical ACF implied by a couple of different fitted models, and find that their structure is just as predicted by our argument. To conveniently conduct these computations, a general simple method for computing the theoretical ACF of GARCH models is suggested, which is easier to use than the formulas developed so far, and particularly so for higher lag-orders. The ability of the component model to approximate long memory is also validated on the basis of a visual comparison between the empirical and the implied theoretical ACFs.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 11.2007, 4, art1 
    ISSN: 1081-1826
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Previous literature has recognized the importance of regime changes in the calculation of ex-ante equity premia. However, the methodologies used to estimate equity premia only allow for very restrictive forms of regime transitions. This paper addresses the issue by postulating an evolving model for the law of motion of dividend growth, consumption growth and dividend-price ratio. Model parameters are then used to compute conditional and unconditional U.S. equity premia. We substantially extend and confirm previous work on the declining equity premium, and uncover important macroeconomic factors driving the equity premium. We find that the equity premium has declined, particularly from 1950 to 1971 and from 1988 to 2000. Our results point to changing consumption volatility as an important priced factor. We find that volatility of consumption growth is a good indicator of economic uncertainty and, as such, its changes are reflected in expected returns, and are priced by the market. We also find that not accounting for parameter time variation induces large pricing errors, as too little variation in dividend yields is attributed to changes in expected dividend growth.
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