ALBERT

Notes: Using data from the Luxembourg Income Study, I study the sensitivity of cross-national income poverty comparisons to the method in which poverty is measured. Absolute poverty comparisons that keep the purchasing power at the poverty line constant across countries lead to conclusions that differ from relative poverty comparisons in which the real value of the poverty line varies with average income. The absolute poverty ranking of countries also varies as the real value of the poverty line is lowered. Cross-national differences in household characteristics are largely irrelevant in explaining poverty differences.

Notes: Using longitudinal data which include real estate wealth, financial assets as well as consumer durables, changes in the distribution of wealth in Sweden are related to major changes in asset prices and in incentives to hold various assets in the 1980s and the beginning of the 1990s. Our analysis of the mobility of wealth indicates that decile mobility is higher in Sweden than in the U.S., while the analysis of who is gaining and who is loosing shows results similar to those of previous studies.

Notes: We demonstrate that the criteria put forward by Atkinson and Bourguignon (1987) can be satisfactorily applied to the analysis of poverty even when the demographic composition of society and the definition of poverty change over time. We show that they provide both sufficient and necessary conditions for any robust conclusions concerning the changes in welfare and poverty. We apply these criteria to a set of data tracking annual income distribution movements in France from 1977 to 1994. The Atkinson and Bourguignon criteria posit that recent changes in poverty are a function of macroeconomic fluctuations in activity.

Notes: This study focuses on the role of foreign-born households in Canada's asset market. An empirical analysis of wealth accumulation is conducted for a large sample of Canadian households circa 1977–84. This study period reflects a change in Canada's immigration policy which resulted in immigration Rows switching from Europe to Asia. A life-cycle framework is used to examine wealth accumulation behaviour of the foreign-born vis-à-vis Canadian-born households. The empirical results confirm the existence of an inverted ‘U’-shaped wealth-age profile for both Canadian and immigrant households. However, the 1977 results show that the rate of wealth accumulation is higher for the immigrant household than the Canadian-born household in pre-retirement years, while the 1984 results reveal the opposite. After retirement, the rate of wealth dissipation is slower for Canadians than for foreign-born households. Only the 1984 results indicate that public social security wealth displaces household savings for both the Canadian-born and the foreign-born by a small amount. Finally, an immigrant household exhibits a stronger transfer motive within a family than a Canadian-born household regardless of year tested.

Notes: This paper investigates the importance of increases in the productivity of producing capital in estimates of the profit rate decline which occurred in the United States during the period 1950–90. We find that, when profit rate measures take into account the increasing productivity of producing capital stock (as measured by the embodied labor required to produce it), the observed decline is about one-half that found using conventional measures of profit. This finding has important implications for interest rate and investment policies.

Notes: The UK government recently introduced legislation to treat the qualifying distribution on a repurchase of shares in the same way as ‘foreign income dividends’. This paper examines and criticises this reform from two perspectives. First, there is no underlying rationale for such an approach. Second, the legislation moves the tax system away from simplification. A better approach would have been to remove the advance corporation tax (ACT) charge on a repurchase. JEL classification: H25, K34.

Notes: This paper examines the impact of the UK housing benefit system on the financial returns to employment of people in local authority or Housing Association accommodation. It outlines the current structure of housing benefit and examines its effects on the returns to employment using data from the Family Expenditure Survey. It analyses the consequences of a number of reforms to the current system — lowering social rents, increasing the levels of housing benefit received in work and restricting the amount of rent covered by housing benefit payments. This analysis highlights the trade-offs involved in various strategies available for restructuring the present system. JEL classification: H3, H4, J3.

Notes: In this paper, we present a new model of UK public finances which aims to shed light on recent problems of forecasting the PSBR. The main elements of public spending are treated as endogenous variables which rise in line with GDP over the medium term. Also, the cyclical response of public borrowing to rises in the level of economic activity is more muted when growth is export-led than when it is consumer-led. These two features go a long way towards explaining the rapid deterioration of public finances in the early 1990s and the slow pace of improvement since 1993. JEL classification: C53, E62, H62.

Notes: This paper considers the distributional effects of imposing additional excise duties on energy products according to carbon content. The assumed duties escalate from 1999 to 2010 and achieve levels reducing CO2 emissions by 10 per cent below baseline by 2010 for 11 EU member states. By 2010, real personal disposable incomes are 1.6 per cent above baseline and employment is 1.2 per cent above, assuming that the change is tax-revenue-neutral. The study concludes that the changes will be weakly regressive for nearly all the member states in the study if revenues are used to reduce employers’ taxes and strongly progressive if they are given back lump-sum to households. JEL classification: C53, D12, H22, Q48.

Notes: Competition is being extended into residential utility markets world-wide; the European directives on telecoms, electricity and gas will extend choice throughout the European Union by the turn of the century. In the UK, the Privatisation Acts not only changed the ownership of utilities, but imposed a duty on the regulators to encourage competition. It is the introduction of competition, actual and potential, that has been the main force behind changing the relative prices charged to different consumers, particularly in the residential market. We use household-level data to identify the distributional impact, particularly on vulnerable households and those for whom regulators have special responsibilities. We find a mixed outcome, with some vulnerable households, especially pensioners, adversely affected: we suggest potential compensation mechanisms that could improve welfare by enabling the benefits of competition in these industries supplying essential services to be gained without harming the most vulnerable households. JEL classification: D40, 118.

Notes: This article describes the methods used by the Treasury and other government departments for making forecasts of the public finances. A highly detailed approach is required because of the Treasury's budgetary role, but the aggregated results are subjected to careful ‘top-down’ checks. Forecasts have a necessary role in fiscal policy. But they are subject to large margins of error, and should be presented and used with caution. JEL classification: E6, H1, H6.

Notes: A recurring issue in indirect tax design — most obviously, but not only, for goods traditionally subject to heavy excises — is the appropriate balance between specific and ad valorem taxation. Recent work has developed new perspectives on the issue, which is also one of the oldest in the formal study of public finance. This paper provides a broadly non-technical account of the central considerations that arise in choosing the balance between specific and ad valorem taxation, reviewing and somewhat extending the lessons of theory and experience. There emerge clear presumptions as to the relative effects of the two kinds of tax on such attributes as price, profits, product quality and variety. But the socially optimal balance between them is likely to be quite sensitive to the characteristics of the market at issue. JEL classification: h21, H22.

Notes: 〈blockFixed type="quotation"〉‘No-one ever got rich by passing up golden opportunities and that's exactly what a personal pension offers you. Why?Because one of the beauties of saving for your retirement is that the government actually gives you money — and lots of it — to encourage you … you get back every penny of the income tax you pay on the money you invest.’ Small print: ‘the value of the tax benefit depends on how much tax you pay’.Virgin advertisement, The Guardian, 17 September 1997.〈section xml:id="abs1-1"〉〈title type="main"〉AbstractGovernment support of private (occupational and personal) pensions through tax relief is an important element in the UK's retirement income system. However, the current tax relief system is regressive, lacks transparency and is difficult to control. This paper argues that it should be replaced by a cost-neutral matching-grant or tax-credit scheme. Such a scheme would embody the ‘partnership’ idea implicit in much government policy in this area, but would be much more progressive, more open and more accountable than existing arrangements. The argument is illustrated through a comparison of the cost and distributional impact of the current system with those of an alternative tax-credit scheme. JEL classification: H55.

Notes: This paper investigates the scope for housing wealth to alleviate poverty among Britain's older population by modelling the potential effect of equity-release schemes on the net incomes of older homeowners using data from the 1993–94 and 1994–95 Family Expenditure Surveys. We find that for the older population in general, the potential impact of equity release on poverty is limited by the positive association between homeownership and income in later life. The scope for equity release to enhance incomes is restricted mainly to the oldest age-groups where life expectancy is short. However, it is at these oldest ages that incomes are lowest and although we estimate that equity release cannot provide much benefit to those in the greatest poverty, the additions to income that equity release could bring to some of the oldest homeowners are not insignificant. JEL classification: D31, H55, 132, J14.

Notes: This paper considers the magnitude of the human capital investment required to offset the increase in the inequality in labour earnings in the US economy since 1979. It considers the ineffectiveness of government training policies, the effectiveness of private sector training and the conflict between economic efficiency and the work ethic. It also considers revisions of the tax code. The importance of the distinction between the long view and the short view in analysing human resource policies is emphasised. JEL classification: J24, I28, H40.

Notes: This paper uses data from the two waves of the UK Retirement Survey to present a detailed descriptive analysis of the retirement behaviour of older men. The main motivation for doing this is the fall in the employment rates of older men over the last 20 years. A comparison of the labour market behaviour of men with and without an occupational pension suggests that increases in the coverage and levels of occupational pensions may not be enough to explain the long-term trends in labour market behaviour, but that there are important differences in the retirement experiences of the two groups. JEL classification: J26.

Notes: Expectations regarding the future state of the public finances are vital for public policy formation. The UK experience has been that forecast of the PSBR have been beset with problems since the mid-1980s. Independent assessments of the accuracy and plausibility of public finance forecasts are an important check on government forecasts and serve to increase public debate over government finance issues. We examine the success of various possible methods available to those outside government. JEL classification: E6, H1, H6.

Notes: The charitable giving of UK households has changed considerably over the past 20 years. In particular, the proportion of households giving to charity fell by 5 percentage points between 1974 and 1993–94. An increase in the average size of donations meant that total voluntary income increased in real terms over the period, but, since 1988, voluntary income has stagnated. The greatest falls in the number of givers are among households in their twenties and thirties. There are clear trends in giving across households by age and income, with younger and poorer households tending to give less. But not only are today's younger households less likely to give than today's middle-aged households; they are also less likely to give than today's middle-aged households did when they were young. These generational trends in giving do not bode well for levels of voluntary income in the future. JEL classification: D12. D16.

Notes: The tax system in the UK has developed through numerous ad hoc changes to its structure. This has resulted in a situation where the way in which the tax system is described does not readily correspond to the marginal rate schedule actually faced by taxpayers. This paper outlines the connection between the formal description of the tax system and the marginal rate schedule faced by taxpayers. It argues that the operation of the tax system would be greatly clarified if it were described explicitly in terms of its marginal rate schedule.

Notes: This paper considers some of the economic impacts that demographic change may have in developed economies over the next fifty years. I focus on the role that financial markets might play in economies where the pressure on government-run unfunded pension systems is likely to rise. The role of unfunded schemes is considered in a world where financial markets are incomplete and important types of risk cannot easily be offset by trading. How demographic shifts might affect labour productivity, asset prices and aggregate output is investigated using a simulation model of an economy where population structure is changing. JEL classification: E21, E60, G10, H1.

Notes: The ‘Green Book’ and the recent EGRUP report support exchequer cost per job as a key input in the ex-ante appraisal of individual applications for Regional Selective Assistance (RSA) and the ex-post evaluation of the RSA scheme as a whole. In this paper, following a recommendation in the House of Commons Trade and Industry Committee's report on regional policy, the merits of an alternative, explicitly cost-benefit, framework are outlined. This approach incorporates the administration and compliance costs of the subsidy, costs at present ignored in RSA evaluation studies. An optimal ex-ante appraisal rule is developed. This takes the form of a cost-per-job ceiling, and a representative value is calculated for this figure. JEL classification: H20.

Notes: The level of earnings inequality and its change during the 1980s in Portugal are analyzed, relying on several inequality measures and on international comparisons to generate insight into their patterns. A high level of inequality at the beginning of the eighties is detected, together with a pronounced rise in wage dispersion, brought about by growing inequality at the top. Changes taking place within economic activities, possibly technical progress, are the main forces driving these changes in the wage pattern, while demographic forces, as well as international trade, which could have generated shifts in the demand for labor across economic activities, should be dismissed as explanations for the rise in labor market inequality in Portugal from 1983 to 1992.

Notes: An important application of national accounts is in the formulation of socio-economic policy. This paper starts out with a discussion of the current situation in the Netherlands. Subsequently, it identifies several universal trends (more micro-oriented policy formulation, globalization, the rise of the flexible service economy and the increasing intertwinement of economic, social and environmental policies) and outlines how the national accounts might be adapted and extended so as to enhance its role as the core information system for policy formulation at the macro-and meso-level.

Notes: There are major methodological and practical problems in comparing the performance of capitalist and communist economies. They have been most carefully analysed for the former Soviet Union, for which there was a huge research input, mainly by the CIA. The CIA effort had considerable merit, particularly in assessing Soviet rates of growth. Unfortunately, it was terminated in 1991, partly because it suffered from unduly harsh criticism, partly because its political relevance waned. However, the CIA archives remain an important source for the study of comparative economic growth. It would be extremely useful if they were opened to scholars, a serious loss if they were destroyed.

Notes: This paper analyses how consumption inequality within a fixed cohort grows with age using Japanese household microdata. Following the method developed by Deaton and Paxson (1994), we obtain the following results. First, consumption inequality starts to increase at the age of 40. Second, younger generations face a more unequal distribution from the beginning of their life-cycle. Third, half of the rapid increase in the economy-wide consumption inequality during the 1980s was caused by population aging, while one-third was due to the increasing cohort effect. The paper compares the above results with those of Deaton and Paxson.

Notes: In this paper, we consider reforming the tax system to a comprehensive income tax model in order to amend the differential treatment of income sources. Our simulation analysis shows that the tax reform improves the effectiveness of the tax system on the redistribution of all sources of income including earned income, financial wealth income, and imputed rent. The analysis of incidence of the tax reform suggests that the tax burden for young renters decreases the most and that for young loan-free land owners increases the most through this tax reform.

Notes: A modified version of the perpetual inventory model is applied to new data on consumers' expenditure in the United Kingdom to establish estimates of that part of personal sector wealth represented by the stock of consumer durables. Current and constant price estimates are provided at an aggregate and disaggregate level for the gross and net stock and for the imputed consumption income over the period 1948–95. The accuracy and consistency of the estimates are evaluated in the context of other approaches.

Notes: This paper analyses the behaviour of productive efficiency in the Spanish regions for the period 1964–93. From a growth accounting approach, it describes the regional evolution of total factor productivity (TFP'), based on a private inputs production function. A stricter measure of efficiency is then quantified, which is not equivalent to Solow's residual, since public capital is included in the production function and constant returns to scale are not imposed. Finally, on the basis of the measures of total factor productivity and efficiency, the study discusses the existence of technological convergence among Spanish regions and the role played in it by public capital.The renewed interest in the analysis of the process of growth reflected in economic literature in recent years has also occurred in the case of the Spanish economy, with some peculiarities which are worth mentioning. In the 1980s, two important institutional changes took place: a profound political and administrative decentralization, the regions now being autonomous in many decisions on public expenditure, and the incorporation of Spain into the European Community, which as it is well known has a powerful regional policy. Both changes have meant that the analysis of regional economies, and especially their growth paths, have received much more attention from politicians and economists, and even from the population in general. In particular, intense discussion has taken place regarding the effects of development policies and on criteria for geographical distribution of infrastructures. In both cases, much attention has been paid to discussing their capacity to contribute to convergence among the different regions.As a consequence of this greater interest in the analysis of growth from a regional perspective, efforts have also been made to improve the relevant statistical information. In particular, statistical series have been drawn up for investment and accumulated capital stock in each region, both private and public.' This information, only recently available and the first of its kind, as far as we know, in the European regions, substantially broadens the possibilities of research into the Spanish case in this field, where before not even the simplest exercises in growth accounting could be attempted. Further-more, since the series now available allow the time dimension of growth analysis to be combined with the regional dimension, it is possible to work with a panel of data and apply the corresponding techniques.This article analyses the growth of the Spanish economy over the period 1964–93, during which it can be observed that the per capita income levels of the Spanish regions converged. The objective of the study is to evaluate this process of convergence in income from the perspective of the productive efficiency of the regions, in three different ways. First, Section I considers the importance of the contributions of the private factors of production and of improvements in total factor productivity to the growth of output. Secondly, section II studies the existing relationship between the standard measure of efficiency (Solow's residual or TFP') and a stricter measure when the endowments of public capital are considered. Section III analyses whether or not the convergence in per capita income

Notes: We propose that labor income indices be used to define settlements in many contracts, such as labor contracts, indexed bonds, or income securities. We discuss the issues in producing labor income indices for such uses, and develop prototype indices using US. data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). People are grouped by a clustering algorithm based on an estimated transition matrix between jobs, by education level, and by skill category. The groupings are defined so that few people move between them. For each grouping we generate a labor income index (1968–87) using a hedonic repeated-measures regression method. The indices show substantial variability through time, confirming the potential importance of the use of such indices in contracts. There is also substantial variability across groupings, as for example between the agriculture/labor grouping and other groupings, confirming the importance of using the grouping indices rather than aggregate indices in contracts.

Notes: Household equivalence scales are often used to help perform welfare comparisons across households with different demographic composition. Abstracting from the problems of value judgments and ethical standards, the use of equivalence scales to perform welfare comparisons still faces several measurement problems, namely the identification problem and the endogeneity problem. This paper introduces and estimates an unconditional demand system that simultaneously addresses these two problems. By explicitly considering the demand for leisure, and the fact the household can choose some of its demographic characteristics, we deal with the endogeneity problem and obtain consistent estimates. We identify unconditional equivalence scales by estimating the demand for endogenous demographic variables along with the demand for leisure and consumer goods. More general equivalence scales allowing for better comparability are estimated and used for welfare comparisons.

Notes: This paper uses the PSID to assess the changes in earnings mobility and to compare the changes in cross-section and long-run inequality in the 1970s and 1980s. Previous inequality studies have primarily used measures of cross-section inequality. However, long-run inequality depends not only on cross-section inequality, but also on the degree of earnings mobility, which equalizes earnings over time. I find that earnings mobility increased during the 1970s, but fell during the 1980s. Consistent with this result, the increase in cross-section inequality overstated the true increase during the 1970s, but understated the true increase in inequality during the 1980s.

Notes: This paper discusses how to take assets into account in the measurement of poverty. First asset holdings of current income-poor households are described. Second, the effects on the measured incidence of poverty of two methods to combine income and assets into a single index of economic resources are presented. Third, since the majority of income-poor households do not have assets of much value except for their home, I reconsider the matter of the treatment of housing costs in the measurement of poverty. A method where poverty thresholds are adjusted according to home tenure status is favored, and results of this method are shown. Data are used from the Belgian Socio-Economic Panel, wave 1992.

Notes: In 1991 Statistics Netherlands introduced their early flash estimates of the Quarterly National Accounts. In this article we examine a new, faster flash estimate, some three to four weeks earlier. The gain is made by using a simple regression technique and incomplete data. To compensate for the lack of data, information on the number of working days and shopping days was added to the regression. The inclusion of these calendar aspects significantly affect GDP growth: 0.30 percent point extra GDP growth for one extra working day, and 0.17 percent point for one extra shopping day.The cost of an earlier estimate is a decrease of reliability. The probability of a forecast error of over 0.5 percent point will be about 26 percent, compared to 12 percent for the official flash estimate.

Notes: This paper uses Canadian cross-sectional income and expenditure data to examine changes in the distribution of family income and family consumption during the period 1978 to 1992. Family consumption data are analyzed because in the presence of intertemporal consumption smoothing, the cross-sectional distribution of consumption may characterize the distribution of lifetime wealth. I find that both Canadian family income inequality and Canadian family consumption inequality moved countercyclically. In addition, both Canadian family income inequality and Canadian family consumption inequality trended upward over the period; however, the change in family consumption inequality was much smaller than the change in family income inequality, suggesting that inequality in the distribution of lifetime wealth may have changed much less than is suggested by changes in the distribution of income.

Notes: This paper examines wage differentials at the firm level in Chile and Brazil, using data for 1985 and 1991, and 1987 respectively. The high level of disaggregation in the data available for Chile enables us also to analyze the degree to which wage differentials between individual employers are similar across occupations.The results of this study reaffirm those of previous research pointing to non-competitive explanations for wage differentials, specifically providing clear evidence that inter-firm wage premia are highly correlated across occupations.

Notes: In the past several years, efforts have been made to introduce the 1993 System of National Accounts (1993) SNA) in most of the formerly centrally planned economies. In doing so, a number of problems have emerged, some of which are particular to the situation of these countries. Some of these problems will probably cause overestimates of national accounts variables, others will cause underestimates, and it would be purely coincidental if these effects cancel out. This paper discusses the most disconcerting issues in this situation, and possible solutions.

Notes: Is the decision to become and stay self-employed constrained by access to credit? If this is the case, a more unequal wealth distribution will—for empirically observed distributions–imply more self-employed, since the number of people able to provide collateral will be higher. Swedish data between 1920 and 1992 suggest that wealth inequality and the share of self-employed among those working are positively related. The data, therefore, are consistent with the hypothesis that liquidity constraints are binding on the decision to become and stay self-employed.

Notes: Between and within-households intertemporal inequality indices are proposed to highlight the vertical and lifetime (i.e. cyclical) components of overall intertemporal inequality. Comparison with the classical static inequality indices is made. Income redistribution and smoothing (i.e. stabilization) are conveniently defined as the public policy impact on welfare, by means of the relative increase in intertemporal vertical and cyclical equity, respectively. The issue is important as many public policies are aimed at both (vertical and cyclical equity) objectives. Our approach provides a more appropriate evaluation of the desirability of public reforms aimed at achieving a greater vertical and cyclical equity, within a social welfare framework.

Notes: Young workers in the 1990s can expect greater economic insecurity, as well as lower average earnings, compared to older workers, or compared to the youth of previous decades. The cost of greater insecurity depends upon an individual's probability of unemployment, marginal utility of income gains/losses and the extent to which individuals can smooth consumption over time by borrowing and drawing down assets. Since unemployment insurance cutbacks and higher unemployment have increased the risk exposure of youth, changes in the expected value of their income may understate utility losses as measured by the change in certainty equivalent income.This paper uses a behavioural microsimulation model to compare the impacts of 1971 and 1994 unemployment insurance legislation and unemployment rates in Canada. It calculates both the expected value of income changes and, using a Stone-Geary utility function, the change in inequality of well-being (as measured by certainty equivalent income) for youth and for prime age workers. Both calculations reveal that youth were disproportionately affected by Canada's changing labour market environment. Very few youth have enough assets to finance consumption during spells of unemployment.

Notes: If surveys offer two different measurements of household income, one can use them simultaneously to identify the potential effects of measurement error on the observed-income mobility of the poor. In this paper we investigate transition tables between subsequent income states. Latent Markov models are used to model incorrect classifications of income states. Misclassifications are interpreted as measurement error or spurious changes that are not consistent with a simple transition table model. The empirical results for the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) show that the observed transition tables overestimate the mobility between poverty states.

Notes: Poverty comparisons—an increasingly important starting-point for welfare policy analysis-are almost always based on household surveys. Therefore they require that one be able to distinguish underlying differences in the populations being compared from sampling variation: standard errors must be calculated. This has typically been done assuming that the household surveys are simple random samples. However, household surveys are more complex than this. We show that taking into account sampling design has a major effect on estimated standard errors for well-known poverty measures. In our samples they increase by around one-half. We also show that making only a partial correction for sample design (taking into account clustering, but not stratification, whether explicit or implicit) can be as misleading as not taking any account of sampling design at all.

Notes: This paper considers the problem of deflating an input-output table from the viewpoint of the user. In many practical cases certain margins of this table are readily available in constant prices, whereas the entire table is not. This reduces the problem to estimating the matrix of sectoral intermediate deliveries in constant prices. The traditional approach for this purpose is based on the double deflation method. Since double deflation is sensitive to aggregation, however, it typically does not provide correct answers. Therefore, a heuristic approach is proposed as an alternative. It is based on the biproportional projection method. An empirical evaluation indicates that the heuristic approach clearly performs better.

Notes: Most of the literature on income distribution has concentrated on inequality. In this paper we introduce a concern for efficiency in a social welfare model. We propose a simple but useful specification which combines three features: (i) the selection of measurement instruments in the relative and the absolute case on the grounds of their properties for applied work; (ii) a procedure to make welfare comparisons across households with different needs, in a model in which equivalence scales depend only on house-hold size; and (iii) the use of household specific statistical price indices to make intertemporal comparisons in real terms. The methodology is applied to the study of the role of prices and demographic effects in the evolution of the standard of living in Spain from 1973–74 to 1980–81.

Notes: Widely used summary measures of inequality or the idea of the “disappearing middle class” are potentially misleading. Divergences between evidence cited and conclusions drawn include failing to distinguish between the concepts of inequality and polarization, and using scalar “inequality” measures which are not consistent with rankings based on Lorenz curves. In addition, inappropriate claims about trends in inequality can arise from focusing on only a sub-population such as full-time male workers, and failing to account for sampling variability. These divergences are illustrated using Canadian data on labour incomes over the 1967 to 1994 period.

Notes: There are few sources of high-quality data on the dynamics of wealth accumulation. This paper uses newly available data from the 1983 89 panel of the Survey of Consumer Finances to examine household saving and portfolio change over the 1980s. Our main findings are as follows. First, median household wealth rose modestly over the period. Second, while overall wealth inequality increased, households in the top 1 percent of the wealth distribution in 1983 saw their share of total wealth decline, probably reflecting turnover among the very wealthy. Third, although age, income, and initial wealth had significant effects in regressions on household saving, a large part of the variation in saving was unexplained. Finally, there were clear life-cycle patterns in the portfolios of assets and liabilities held by households, with younger households acquiring homes, businesses and all types of debts, and older households divesting themselves of these assets and debts.

Notes: There is a growing awareness that it is important to understand patterns of family assistance; however, there is still a great deal of information about private transfers that is not known. This study begins to fill this void by presenting results from a new survey and integrating these findings with evidence from recent studies that use other new data sets. It is found that: (i) a large share of households participate in private transfer networks, (ii) a greater amount of financial assistance is provided to lower income family members, (iii) altruism does not fully explain transfer behavior, and (iv) people in their 20s and 30s receive more assistance than people of other ages, even the very old.

Notes: In this paper we analyze the determinants of material inputs into individual production activities as a function of their outputs. We use observations on a large cross-section of U.S. manufacturing plants from the Census of Manufactures, including those that make goods primary to other industries, to study differences in production techniques. We find that in most cases material requirements do not depend on whether goods are made as primary products or as secondary products. We thus elucidate support for the commodity technology model as a useful working hypothesis.

Notes: The 1993 SNA recommends chain volume indices over traditional fixed base indices as the principal measure of year-to-year volume movements in economic aggregates. Recognising, however, that “additive consistency” is important to many users, the SNA recommends that countries continue to compile traditional constant price data alongside the chain indices. In addition, the new international guidelines suggest a supply-use table framework for deriving indices. This paper considers how these demands can be met in practice. Particular attention is paid to deriving chain indices for industry value added within the same framework as that used for final demand components.

Notes: A large part of official economic data sets is produced with the help of assumed functional relations between variables. Constructing economic models on the basis of such model-generated data results in a “modeling on the basis of the results of modeling.” This common procedure can lead to consequences that seriously endanger the quality of empirical analyses. After discussing some of these dangerous consequences the authors explore the reasons behind this development. To avoid some of the most severe difficulties a “Charter for Compilation and Correct Handling of Economic Data” is proposed.

Notes: The paper shows that the Canadian System of National Accounts includes exhaustible resources but treats them as if they were produced goods. Thus, the claim that conventional accounts ignore the contribution of exhaustible natural resources is partly true. To fully account for exhaustible resources, we present an alternative national accounting framework that incorporates natural resource flows and stocks. The framework modifies the measure of the net domestic product by a factor that differs from the Hartwick-Solow-Weitzman rule and leads to different estimates of GDP, national wealth, and productivity growth. An application to the Canadian oil and gas industry shows order-of-magnitude effects.

Notes: This paper presents up-to-date estimates of the ability of non-resident fathers to pay child support. While no nationally representative data exist on the incomes of fathers, this issue has become more pertinent in recent years, as child support has become an important national issue. We find that fathers on average are able to pay nearly five times more in child support than they currently pay, and also that low income fathers can afford to pay substantially more than they actually pay. We also find that changes in nonmarital childbearing and the returns to education have had only minimal effects on trends in fathers' incomes.

Notes: In the United Kingdom there is a wide range of sources which make it possible to construct a series for components of personal wealth for the period 1920–56. The data are consistent with contemporary estimates produced for specific years in the 1920s and 1930s. They indicate that a stock-market boom and the effects of deflation and low interest rates on the nominal value of the national debt took the wealth/income ratio in the mid-1930s to a level not seen again until the housing boom of the 1980s.

Notes: The increased availability of cohort data and use of dynamic microsimulation models means that more attention is now being paid to longer term income concepts. Results are usually reported for only one income concept and a limited number of summary measures, and it is not clear whether results are influenced by the income concept used. This paper uses simulation methods to compare different approaches. For this purpose a very simple lifecycle earnings model was used to generate profiles of pre-tax incomes. Many comparisons were made using a flexible tax structure and four alternative income concepts. It was found that there was a substantial amount of agreement among the alternative concepts in making pairwise comparisons, with tentative support for the use of present values.

Notes: Using microdata from Household Budget Surveys of the Member States of the European Community, this paper examines the sensitivity of poverty statistics with respect to the choice of the equivalence scale. The results show that the ranking of the countries with respect to the overall poverty incidence is hardly affected when different equivalence scales are used. However, the composition of the poor population shows considerable changes when e.g. subjective equivalence scales are used instead of the OECD equivalence scale. The poverty incidence among specific household groups, such as single elderly and households with children, is particularly sensitive to the choice of the equivalence scale.

Notes: This paper discusses to what extent the economic growth in China in the 1980's has improved the economic well-being in urban regions of the provinces Sichuan and Liaoning and whether or not the economic growth has been attained at the cost of increased inequality. The study is based on individual household data from the State Statistical Bureau's Urban Household Survey during the 1986–90 period.

Notes: New GNP estimates in current and constant prices for the Belgian economy in the interwar period are presented. The series are conceptually and methodologically consistent with the post-World War Ii data and cover both the income and expenditure approaches. The new estimates differ considerably from the data that have been published before, casting new light on our present understanding of Belgian economic growth in the 1920s and 1930s.

Notes: While much of the evidence suggests that there was an increase in inequality in the U.S. during the 1980s, the reasons are less evident. Using the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey data, we find that the inequality of consumption-expenditures, as well as the inequality of other measures of resources, widened considerably during the 1980s. While previous studies suggest that increasing inequality is mainly due to increases in within group inequality, we show that by decomposing inequality by the interaction of family type and education almost three-fourths of the increase in inequality is accounted for by changes in inequality between groups and by shifts in the population.

Notes: This paper, using six waves of data (1984-89) from the United States Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) and the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), compares economic well-being using single year income, multi-year income, and wealth as measures. We find inequality to be greater in the United States than in Germany regardless of the measure used. However, the relative degree of inequality varies across measures. When we disaggregate our data by age and gender categories, in general we find greater inequality in the United States, but wealth inequality among older Germans is greater than it is among older Americans.

Notes: National accounting concepts of value and income differ from their economic theoretic counterparts in two respects. Firstly, they are more precise in order to give concrete guidelines for measurement, e.g. with respect to the concept of capital formation and the treatment of taxes. Secondly, they are fundamentally different. Valuation in the national accounts is not forward-looking and not based on a notion of perfect competition. Similarly, concepts of income in the national accounts are not measures of net return to wealth or welfare and they do not intend to show income as a reward for some specific factors of production. The national accounts concepts of value and income are descriptive concepts that can only be well understood in view of the specific accounting framework to which they belong.

Notes: Can Eastern European families most severely impoverished during the transition to capitalism rely on private family safety nets? This question is likely critical for the transition's success, but little is known about family networks in Eastern Europe. We analyze newly available Polish household surveys, conducted both before and after Poland's economic transition, which measure private inter-household transfers. Such transfers are large and widespread in Poland, and in many ways appear to function like means-tested public transfers. They flow from high to low-income households and are targeted to young couples, families with many children and those experiencing illness. Private transfer patterns also suggest that they are responsive to liquidity constraints. Our results from 1987 data indicate that private transfers could fill a non-trivial portion of the income gap left by unemployment. However, we also find evidence from 1992 data suggesting that family networks weakened somewhat after the transition.

Notes: Using a nationwide household income survey, different types of income in the People's Republic of China at the end of the 1980s is analysed. The results show that various income types play quite different roles in rural and urban areas. Subsistence income makes up about half of the total income in rural China. Money income makes up about two-thirds of total income in urban China and is the major contributor to inequality in the entire country. In kind income, of which highly subsidized housing is the single most important category, is highly concentrated in urban areas and contributes greatly to inequality.

Notes: Poverty in Madagascar has increased between 1962 and 1980 both in the rural and urban areas based on a comparison of some poverty measures, but decreased based on others. However, it remains predominantly a rural phenomenon. Distributional inequality is the major determinant of the variation in rural poverty, while the changes in urban poverty are due to the lack of economic growth. Thus, the urban bias introduced in government policies in the mid-1970s was not justifiable on strictly poverty-reduction grounds. A reduction of sectoral disparities would have led to a significant reduction of aggregate poverty.

Notes: Models of aggregate productivity growth linked to sectoral models of production typically assume that all intermediate goods markets are perfectly competitive. An econometric analysis reveals that many intermediate goods markets exhibit transactions at prices quite different than marginal cost. Measures of productivity growth that ignore these market imperfections are biased. A measure of the actual magnitude of the bias that emerges under the assumption of equating price to marginal cost is constructed.

Notes: In this paper we examine household wealth and income in the Netherlands using data from the Socio Economic Panel (SEP) in the period 1987–89. We provide an evaluation of the quality of the data and some simple statistics which describe the behavior of wealth, saving, and income over the life cycle. We find there is substantial heterogeneity in the behavior of households, and wealth holdings vary substantially even among the same age group. By exploiting the panel feature of the SEP, we derive saving from first differencing wealth. We find that a sizeable fraction of households do not dissave when old and we find some evidence in favor of the bequest motive.

Notes: A taxonomy of multilateral methods is developed. All the main methods are classified within the taxonomy. It is then shown that methods in the same class share many of the same properties. Therefore the taxonomy should help practitioners to appreciate the wide range of alternative methods for making international comparisons, the relationships between methods, and the relative strengths and weaknesses of each method.

Notes: Little attention has been paid to the importance of consistency between the specifications of the income and the equivalence scales used in measuring economic well-being when noncash income is included in the definition of income. This article finds that inconsistency between the income and needs sides of a comparison can be important when some types of noncash income are included. An upward bias in the measured economic status of the aged when Medicare is included in income and an ordinary equivalence scale is used is presented as an example of the important effects of this consistency problem.

Notes: This paper provides two new data sets for comparisons of real income in OECD countries. The first set provides adjusted real series for GDP and its components from 1960 to 1993 based on OECD 1990 purchasing power parities. The second set uses OECD PPP of different benchmark years, and interpolates these applying national price indices. Comparisons between both alternatives, Penn World Tahle Mark 5 (PWT 5) and its new version (PWT 5.6), in terms of economic growth and convergence, reveal some remarkable differences. Moreover, there are wider differences concerning the relative countries' position in GDP per capita ranking. Estimations of convergence equations based on OECD data yield a better fit than those obtained using PWT data, although there are also some significant differences between PWT 5 and PWT 5.6. Nevertheless, a very positive result is that other parameters of interest in these equations are not affected by the use of these different data sources.

Notes: The output of the Swedish education sector is defined as the addition to lifetime incomes generated by the schooling system. Using cross-sectional information on wages, employment rates, working hours, school-participation and leisure time, all by years of schooling, we compute new output-based measures of the education sector. Measures that include and exclude leisure, and that are counted before and after taxes are computed for the years 1967, 1973, 1980 and 1990. Our most important conclusion is that the output-based measure differs so markedly from conventional input-based ones that a replacement of the latter with the former would change the picture of the overall performance of the Swedish economy over the period.

Notes: This paper estimates adult equivalence scales in the context of a nonlinear demand system using cross-section individual household data. It then evaluates the treatment of children under the tax allowance and child benefit systems on the basis of the estimated equivalence scales. The results suggest that a child benefit system allowing for economies of scale in the family is consistent with the cost of children implied by the notion of adult equivalence scale.

Notes: This paper uses microeconomic data from the British Household Panel and General Household Surveys to describe how the distribution of pay differs between the public and private sectors in 1983 and in the early 1990s. Separate analyses by gender and education group reveal that it is women and those with intermediate-level qualifications who do best in the public sector. The large differences between the shapes of the conditional (that is, holding age and education constant) distributions of wages in the public and private sectors are demonstrated using quantile regressions estimated separately for each education group. The paper also exploits the longitudinal structure of the data used to assess how much of these differences can be explained by the unobserved characteristics of individuals. JEL classifications: J31, J45.

Notes: The golden rule of public finance is based upon the notin that intergenerational equity requires that the cost of public expenditures be spread over time in a manner that reflects the intertemporal distribution of the benefits generated by those expenditures. This is often translated into a rule that the budget be structurally balanced in accrual accounting terms. This article considers the form of accrual accounting that is most suited to the task of measuring the consistency of fiscal policy with the golden rule. It recommends a combination of the real capital maintenance approach (also known as ‘current purchasing power accounting’) and annuity depreciation. Such an approach differs from ‘current cost accounting’, which has dominated public sector models of accrual accounting in recent years. The meaning of balance-sheet measures is also considered, and it is concluded that the golden rule is more appropriately expressed as an accrual balanced budget requirement than as a requirement for the maintenance of constant net worth. JEL classification: H6, M40.

Notes: This paper applies modern concepts from the theory of public goods to indicate why progress has been made with respect to some global and regional public goods (for example, cutting sulphur emissions) but not with respect to others (for example, cutting greenhouse gases). Factors promoting collective action at the transnational level include the removal of uncertainty, a high share of nation-specific benefits, a limited number of essential participants and the presence of an influential leader nation. The impact of public good aggregation technologies on the future provision of transnational public goods is related to the trend in world-wide income inequality. Principles are presented for designing supranational structures for addressing transnational public good problems. JEL classification: H41, D70, Q20.

Notes: The newly elected Labour government has pledged to ‘reinvigorate the Private Finance Initiative’, as part of the new emphasis on ‘public/private partnerships’ in the delivery of core public services. This article assesses the merits of using private finance to deliver public services against three criteria: whether it will lead to additional investment in social infrastructure, whether it represents good value for the taxpayer's money and whether the use of private finance will reduce the public sector's flexibility to pursue its public service objectives. JEL classification: H54, H11.

Notes: This paper uses two waves of the UK Retirement Survey to look at how incomes change during retirement. We concentrate on men aged 65–69 and women aged 60–69 in 1988–89 and look at how their incomes change over the following five years. Overall, we find a considerable degree of stability in real incomes. We use the panel data to look at the incomes of widows before and after they are widowed and find that, for this group of relatively young widows, their low incomes are in large part determined by the fact that it tends to be the relatively poorer husbands who die among this age-group. Finally, we consider the most important component of private income — occupational pensions — separately. We find a strong relationship between pension level and the probability of indexation — pensions that start low are less likely than higher pensions to keep up with inflation. JEL classification: D31, H55

Notes: This paper examines the arguments for changing the ways that UK drug prices are regulated. In the UK, NHS pharmaceutical expenditures on branded drugs, currently worth about £3 billion a year, have been regulated by the Pharmaceutical Price Regulation Scheme (PPRS) since 1978. We argue that, in publicly funded healthcare systems, pharmaceutical price regulation is necessitated by a tendency towards excessive government expenditure because of over-prescription and the monopoly power of firms with on-patent drugs. We briefly explain the operation of the PPRS. which is based on rate-of-return regulation, and discuss its merits and drawbacks. We then consider five alternative pricing systems: free pricing, therapeutic benefit pricing, international reference pricing, therapeutic reference pricing and RPI - X price regulation. However, we reject all these alternatives in favour of a reformed PPRS. We suggest three potential reforms of the PPRS: an RPI - X cost allowance if feasible or a widening of the rate-of-return bands otherwise; the introduction of a marketing innovation allowance; and greater regulatory transparency. JEL classification: L5, L6, D4.

Notes: This paper examines the asset positions of households at and around retirement in Britain using the Retirement Survey ‘waves’ of 1988–89 and 1994. The data provide the first panel evidence on retirement behaviour and asset evolution for a sample of older households in Britain. The analysis in this paper shows the importance of housing and private pension wealth for this age-group in Britain, and also the differential wealth holdings between surviving respondents and those who died or failed to respond for other reasons in 1994. It provides some preliminary evidence as to whether households decumulate assets after retirement in accordance with the ‘textbook’ version of the Life-Cycle Hypothesis of consumption.

Notes: This paper examines the relationship between the cross-sectional and lifetime income distributions using a simple model of relative income mobility. It asks whether cross-sectional comparisons between countries can provide a good indication of lifetime inequality differences if income mobility is similar, and whether lifetime inequality increases by less than cross-sectional inequality if the latter increases as a result of higher mobility. Analytical and simulation methods are used to show that the answer to both questions is negative. Comparisons must allow for different types of mobility, the nature of the age-income profile and the age distribution in each country. JEL classification: D31.

Notes: There is an unresolved debate on the effect of tax-based savings incentives on government revenue. The conventional wisdom on tax-assisted saving plans (TASPs) holds that they reduce public savings, but may raise national savings by stimulating private savings. Feldstein (1995) has challenged the view that TASPs reduce government revenue. According to Feldstein, ‘some of the increase in personal saving raises the corporate capital stock, and the return on this additional capital raises corporate tax payments’. When the additional corporate income tax revenue is taken into account, ‘the revenue loss associated with IRAs [Individual Retirement Accounts] either is much smaller than has generally been estimated or is actually a revenue gain’.This paper extends Feldstein's analysis to incorporate international considerations, differences in tax structures and alternative values for key parameters. We show that the result presented by Feldstein represents a special case that does not lead to broad generalisations. We also show that, under most conditions, the tenets of conventional wisdom that TASPs reduce government revenue are likely to hold, but that the magnitude of the effect may not be large. Finally, we suggest that the focus of research on the savings effects of TASPs is justifiable in a closed economy, where domestic savings affect domestic investment, but is not useful for policy development in small open economies. JEL classification: H2, H3, H6.

Notes: This paper illustrates recent trends in household consumption and personal savings in the UK and the US and discusses some theoretical models that can be used to interpret them. The trends in these two countries are interesting for several reasons. The decline in personal saving rates in the US during the 1980s is an unresolved puzzle. The corresponding variable in the UK has undergone large fluctuations, as have several other variables ranging from projected demographic trends to female labour supply. This paper stresses the need to analyse individual data to shed some light on these aggregate trends. It also stresses the need to have a sound structural model to interpret observed patterns in the data.The theoretical framework discussed throughout the paper is the life-cycle model, which views consumption and saving decisions as part of a dynamic optimisation process. The development of the model and the current research agenda and ways that it can be enriched with various degrees of sophistication are discussed. Particular attention is devoted to the discussion of the most recent developments. JEL classification Dl, E21.

Notes: The schedular system of income tax in the UK frequently comes under attack, not least in relation to the distinctions it draws between the tax treatment of the employed and the self-employed. However, on examination, it appears that non-schedular systems of taxation share both these distinctions and the difficulties that arise from them, albeit to varying degrees. The division between employed and self-employed is also problematic for social security systems. These difficulties are found, to a greater or lesser extent, in all the jurisdictions studied by the authors. It may be argued that all or some of the tax and social security differences are justified by fundamental economic and legal differences between the nature of employment and self-employment relationships. This may be true where the relationships compared are unambiguously, on the one hand, employment and, on the other, self-employment. However, there have always been non-standard relationships that combine characteristics of both these broad categories. This grey area appears to be increasing with changing work patterns. Consequently, the simple dichotomous system adopted by the UK tax and social security systems has come under pressure. This article considers the problems arising from this situation and some of the ideas that have been put forward to deal with them. JEL classification: H24, K34.

Notes: The 1986 Social Security Act introduced far-reaching changes to the supplementary pension environment in Britain, encouraging the growth of defined contribution pension plans and especially personal pensions. This paper examines the pattern of supplementary pension coverage of employees in Britain five years after the implementation of the Act, using cross-sectional data from the Family Resources Survey 1993–94. Two-thirds of employees in Britain are covered by private contracted-out pension scheme. Employer-provided defined benefit pension schemes remain the dominant type of supplementary pension scheme. The growth of personal pension plans is more marked among manual, less-skilled, workers in smaller establishments. The paper concludes that, in the absence of further pension reform, adverse labour market conditions will exert downward pressure on private pension coverage. JEL classification:I38, J32, J38.

Notes: Starting in 1998, the electricity market in England and Wales will be opened up to full competition, and all consumers will be allowed to choose their electricity supplier. This promises to result in lower prices, but there will be additional transactions costs exceeding £100 million a year for the first five years. Relative to a counterfactual without competition, there are likely to be large transfers from electricity companies (and the coal industry) to consumers, but the companies lose more than consumers gain. This conclusion might be reversed if competitive pressure leads to significant additional cost savings in the future. JEL classification: L94

Notes: The possibility of an earned income tax credit, based on the US model, is currently high up the British political agenda. This paper examines the strengths and weaknesses of the current British system of in-work benefits, before reviewing the effectiveness of the US Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) scheme. The British and US systems are then directly compared in terms of the net income delivered and the effective tax rate (net benefit deduction rate). Although the evidence in favour of a US-style EITC is weak, two possible variants are considered. The paper concludes that the only future for an EITC is probably as a partial scheme, linked to the amalgamation of in-work and out-of-work benefits, which removes wage subsidisation from the sphere of social security by means of a semi-individualised tax credit. Even so, the same goals could be achieved through the benefit system. JEL classification: H24, I38.

Notes: Pension systems in different countries vary widely in such aspects as the dependence of benefits on earlier labour income, the minimum permitted retirement age and limits on labour supply after retirement. This paper uses a simulation model of a rational, utility-maximising household facing the detailed pension provisions of eight European countries to study microeconomic distortions induced by the different rules and regulations. We examine in particular the impact on savings, labour supply, retirement age decisions and welfare. JEL classification: H55, J26, J65.