ALBERT

Notes: Abstract Microprobe analyses of feldspars in granite mylonites containing flame perthite give compositions that invariably plot as three distinct clusters on a ternary feldspar diagram: orthoclase (Or92–97), albite and oligoclase-andesine. The albite occurs as grains in the matrix, as flame-shaped lamellae in orthoclase, and in patches within plagioclase grains.We present a metamorphic model for albite flame growth in the K-feldspar in these rocks that is related to reactions in plagioclase, rather than alkali feldspar exsolution. Flame growth is attributed to replacement and results from a combination of two retrograde reactions and one exchange reaction under greenschist facies conditions. Reaction 1 is a continuous or discontinuous (across the peristerite solvus) reaction in plagioclase, in which the An component forms epidote or zoisite. Most of the albite component liberated by Reaction 1 stays to form albite in the host plagioclase, but some Na migrates to form the flames within the K-feldspar. Reaction 2 is the exchange of K for Na in K-feldspar. Reaction 3 is the retrograde formation of muscovite (as ‘sericite’) and has all of the chemical components of a hydration reaction of K-feldspar. The Si and Al made available in the plagioclase from Reaction 1 are combined with the K liberated from the K-feldspar, to produce muscovite in Reaction 3. The muscovite forms in the plagioclase, rather than the K-feldspar, as a result of the greater mobility of K relative to Al. The composition of the albite flames is controlled by both the peristerite and the alkali feldspar miscibility gaps and depends on the position of these solvi at the pressure and temperature that existed during the reaction. Using an initial plagioclase composition of An20, the total reaction can be summarized as:20 oligoclase + 1 K-feldspar + 2 H2O = 2 zoisite + muscovite + 2 quartz + 15 albiteplagioclase+ 1 albiteflame.This model does not require that any additional feldspar framework be accreted at replacement sites: Na and K are the only components that must migrate a significant distance (e.g. from one grain to the next), allowing Al to remain within the altering plagioclase grain. The resulting saussuritization is isovolumetric.The temperature and extent of replacement depends on when, and how much, water infiltrates the rock. The fugacity of the water, and therefore the pressure of the fluid, may have been significantly lower than lithostatic during flame growth.

Notes: Abstract In metapelitic schists of the north-eastern Weekeroo Inliers, Olary Block, Willyama Supergroup, South Australia, syn-S1 and syn-S2 assemblages involving staurolite, garnet, biotite and another mineral, most probably cordierite, were overgrown by large syn-S3 andalusite porphyroblasts, owing to isobaric heating from metamorphic conditions that existed during the development of S2. Conditions during the development of S3 probably just reached the andalusite—sillimanite transition. During the development of S4, at somewhat lower temperatures than those that accompanied the development of S3, the following reaction occurred:staurolite + chlorite + muscovite ± biotite + andalusite + quartz + H2O.The amount of retrogression is controlled primarily by the amount of H2O added by infiltration. As the syn-S3 matrix assemblage was stable during the development of S4, but the andalusite porphyroblasts were no longer stable with the matrix when H2O was added, the retrogression is focused in and around the porphyroblasts. With enough H2O available, and if quartz was consumed before biotite in a porphyroblast, then the following reaction occurred:staurolite + chlorite + muscovite + corundum ± biotite + andalusite + H2O.This reaction allowed corundum inclusions in the andalusite to grow, regardless of the presence of quartz in the matrix assemblage.

Notes: Abstract Effects of post-entrapment fluid-inclusion modification are examined with reference to retrogression-related quartz veins from the Caledonian, Øse Thrust, northern Norway. The inclusions occur in secondary trails, and contain high-density hypersaline aqueous fluids. On morphological characteristics, they are subdivided into, Type A: elongate, ellipsoidal and/or irregular inclusions, and Type B: more equant, regular, and/or negative crystal form. With reference to previous research on post-entrapment modification of inclusions in quartz it is proposed that Type A inclusions experienced little or no post-entrapment modification, whereas Type B inclusions show features characteristic of post-entrapment permanent inelastic stretching and/or leakage. This produces increased homogenization temperatures (Th), associated with increased inclusion volume and lowering of density, whilst maintaining constant salinity. The similarity of data for degree of fill and salinity between Type A and Type B inclusions indicates that Type B inclusions have primarily modified by stretch rather than leakage. However, the spread towards slightly larger volume of vapour in Type B inclusions suggests that some leakage has also occurred. Because stretched and/or partially leaked inclusions have increased Th, isochore projections significantly underestimate trapping pressure (Pt) relative to unmodified inclusions. Therefore, recognition of post-entrapment inclusion modification due to overpressure is crucial to avoid misinterpretation of data, but has considerable potential for constraining the detail of P-T trajectories of individual rocks. On this basis, rocks from the Øse Thrust zone, north Norway, are shown to have experienced rapid uplift on a ‘clockwise’P-T-t path during the final stages of Caledonian (Scandian) orogenesis.

Notes: Abstract The Erzgebirge Crystalline Complex (ECC) is a rare example where both‘crustal’eclogites and mantle-derived garnet-bearing ultramafic rocks (GBUs) occur in the same tectonic unit. Thus, the ECC represents a key complex for studying tectonic processes such as crustal thickening or incorporation of mantle-derived material into the continental crust. This study provides the first evidence that high-pressure metamorphism in the ECC is of Variscan age. Sm-Nd isochrons define ages of 333 ± 6 (Grt-WR), 337± 5 (Grt-WR), 360± 7 (Grt-Cpx-WR) (eclogites) and 353 ± 7 Ma (Grt-WR) (garnet-pyroxenite). 40Ar/39Ar spectra of phengite from two eclogite samples give plateau ages of 348 ± 2 and 355 ± 2 Ma. The overlap of ages from isotopic systems with blocking temperatures that differ by about 300 ° C indicates extremely fast tectonic uplift rates. Minimum cooling rates were about 50° C Myr-1. As a consequence, the closure temperature of the specific isotopic system is of minor importance, and the ages correspond to the time of high-pressure metamorphism. Despite textural equilibrium and metamorphic temperatures in excess of 800° C, clinopyroxene, garnet and whole rock do not define a three-point isochron in three of four samples. The metamorphic clinopyroxenes seem to have inherited their isotopic signature from magmatic precursors. Rapid tectonic burial and uplift within only a few million years might be the reason for the observed Sm-Nd disequilibrium. The εNd values of the eclogites (+4.4 to +6.9) suggest the protoliths were derived from a long-term depleted mantle, probably a MORB source, whereas the isotopically enriched garnet-pyroxenite (εNd–2.9) might represent subcontinental mantle material, emplaced into the crust prior to or during collision. The similarity of ages of the two different rock types suggests a shared metamorphic history.

Notes: Abstract The crystalline core of the Himalayan orogen in the Langtang area of Nepal, located between the Annapurna-Manaslu region and the Everest region, contains middle to upper amphibolite grade pelitic gneisses and schists. These rocks are intimately associated with the Main Central Thrust (MCT), one of the major compressional structures in the northern Indian plate, which forms a 3.7-km-wide zone containing rocks of both footwall and hangingwall affinity. An inverted metamorphic gradient is noticeable from upper footwall through hangingwall rocks, where metamorphic conditions increase from garnet grade near the MCT zone to sillimanite + K-feldspar grade in the upper hangingwall. Petrographic data distinguish two metamorphic episodes that have affected the area: a high-pressure, moderate-temperature episode (M1) and a moderate-pressure, high-temperature episode (M2). Comparison with appropriate reaction boundaries suggests that conditions for M1 in the hangingwall were approximately 900–1200 MPa and 425–525°C. Thermobarometric results for 24 samples from the footwall, MCT zone and hangingwall reflect P-T conditions during the M2 phase of 400–1200 MPa and 490–660° C. The decrease in estimated palaeopressures from footwall to hangingwall approximate a lithostatic gradient of 27 MPa km-1, with slight fluctuations in the MCT zone reflecting structural discontinuities. In contrast to the palaeopressures, palaeotemperatures are indistinguishable across the entire area sampled. Although field evidence suggests the presence of the inverted palaeothermal gradient well known in the Himalaya, quantitative thermobarometry indicates that temperatures of final equilibration were all within error of each other across 17 km of section. At Langtang, change in pressure is responsible for the presence of the sequence of index minerals through the section. I interpret these data to reflect diachronous attainment of equilibrium temperature conditions in a lithostatic palaeopressure profile after ductile faulting of the sequence.

Notes: Abstract High-pressure-temperature metapelites that occur in close proximity to eclogitized mafic rocks in the southern part of the Gagnon terrane (Parautochthonous Belt, eastern Grenville Province) were investigated in order to constrain depths of burial and P-T paths. Mineral assemblages and partial melting relationships in these metapelites are consistent with peak temperatures in the range between 700 and 800° C. However, growth zoning is apparently well preserved in garnets and only narrow rims (width = 100–500 μm) are obviously affected by diffusional retrograde resetting. Despite uncertainties regarding mineral assemblages and compositions of matrix minerals at early stages of garnet growth, it can be shown that the observed growth zoning profiles of garnets imply increase of both pressure and temperature up to a common maximum at pressures between 1300 and 1600 MPa, and that thermal relaxation did not occur during the initial stages of unloading. On the other hand, calculated retrograde P-T conditions are consistent with steep decompression paths. The inferred ‘hair-pin’-shaped P-T path is consistent with independent evidence of rapid, tectonically driven exhumation, resulting in the preservation of growth zoning in garnets from such a high-temperature regime.

Notes: Abstract A petrogenetic grid and related diagrams derived from KFMASH-system experiments demonstrate that osumilite is stable in relatively magnesian bulk rock compositions (XMg 〉 0.6) at temperatures in excess of 875° C and pressures less than 11 kbar. The experiments, involving the dehydration melting of biotite in synthetic metapelites, were conducted in the range 850–1000° C. Both the mineral assemblages and phase compositions reported from well-documented natural examples of osumilite-bearing rocks are reproduced by the experiments at P-T conditions similar to those previously estimated for these occurrences. Peak metamorphic P-T conditions can be reliably inferred from distinctive osumilite-bearing assemblages identified in the phase diagrams, thereby avoiding the problems of diffusional re-equilibration that often prohibits conventional geothermobarometry from recovering peak conditions. Integration of the experimental data with recent independent experiments, after correcting the latter for an underestimated friction correction, allows extension of the petrogenetic grid to higher temperatures. The extended grid is applied to assess and refine the metamorphic history of the Napier Complex, East Antarctica: the high-P stability limit for osumilite in the Napier Complex is 9–10 kbar, the prograde P-T-t path is not necessarily anticlockwise and isobaric cooling in the Scott and Tula mountains occurred, respectively, at pressures greater and less than reactions in the range 8–9 kbar. The stability range for osumilite predicted by the KFMASH-system petrogenetic grid overlaps many more metamorphic terranes than osumilite is found in. Whilst osumilite is not distinctive in thin section and is prone to retrogression, it is possible that carbon dioxide present in the natural system stabilizes cordierite at the expense of osumilite.

Notes: Abstract Paragonite in textural equilibrium with garnet, omphacite and kyanite is found in two eclogites in the ultrahigh-pressure metamorphic terrane in Dabie Shan, China. Equilibrium reactions between paragonite, omphacite and kyanite indicate a pressure of about 19 kbar at c. 700° C. However, one of the paragonite eclogites also contains clear quartz pseudomorphs after coesite as inclusions in garnet, suggesting minimum pressures of 27 kbar at the same temperature. The disparate pressure estimates from the same rock suggest that the matrix minerals in the ultrahigh-pressure eclogites have recrystallized at lower pressures and do not represent the peak ultrahigh-pressure assemblages. This hypothesis is tested by calibrating a garnet + zoisite/clinozoisite + kyanite + quartz/coesite geobarometer and applying it to the appropriate eclogite facies rocks from ultrahigh- and high-pressure terranes. These four minerals coexist from 10 to 60 kbar and in this wide pressure range the grossular content of garnet reflects the equilibrium pressure on the basis of the reaction zoisite/clinozoisite = grossular + kyanite + quartz/coesite + H2O. The results of the geobarometer agree well with independent pressure estimates from eclogites from other orogenic belts. For the paragonite eclogites in Dabie Shan the geobarometer indicates pressures in the quartz stability field, confirming that the former coesite-bearing paragonite-eclogite has re-equilibrated at lower pressures. On the other hand, garnets from other coesite-bearing but paragonite-free kyanite-zoisite eclogites show a very wide variation in grossular content, corresponding to a pressure variation from coesite into the quartz field. This wide variation, partly due to a rimward decrease in grossular component in garnet, is caused by partial equilibration of the mineral assemblage during the exhumation.

Notes: Abstract The hydrothermal metamorphism of a sequence of Pliocene-aged seamount extrusive and volcanoclastic rocks on La Palma includes a relatively complete low-P-T facies series encompassing the zeolite, prehnite-pumpellyite, and greenschist facies. The observed mineral zonations imply metamorphic gradients of 200–300° C km-1.The transition from smectite to chlorite in the La Palma seamount series is characterized by discontinuous steps between discrete smectite, corrensite and chlorite, which occur ubiquitously as vesicles and, to a much lesser extent, vein in-fillings. Trioctahedral smectites [(Mg/(Fe + Mg) = 0.4–0.75] occur with palagonite and Na-Ca zeolites such as analcime and a thompsonite/natrolite solid solution. Corrensite [(Mg/(Fe + Mg) = 0.5–0.65] first appears at stratigraphic depths closely corresponding to the disappearance of analcime and first appearance of pumpellyite. Discrete chlorite [(Mg/(Fe + Mg) = 0.4–0.6] becomes the dominant layer silicate mineral coincident with the appearance of epidote and andraditic garnet.Within the stratigraphic section there is some overlap in the distribution of the three discrete layer silicate phases, although random interstratifications of these phases have not been observed. Although smectite occurs as both low- and high-charge forms, the La Palma corrensite is a compositionally restricted, 1:1 mixture of low-charge, trioctahedral smectite and chlorite. Electron microprobe analyses of coarse-grained corrensite yield structural formulae close to ideal values based on 50 negative charge recalculations. Calcium (average 0.20 cations/formula unit) is the dominant interlayer cation, with lesser Mg, K and Na.The absence of randomly interlayered chlorite/smectite in the La Palma seamount series may reflect high, time-integrated fluid fluxes through the seamount sequence. This is consistent with the ubiquity of high-variance metamorphic mineral assemblages and the general absence of relict igneous minerals in these samples.

Notes: Abstract Quartz-hosted, synthetic CO2-H2O fluid inclusions behave as open systems with respect to diffusional transfer of hydrogen during laboratory-simulated metamorphic re-equilibration at 650, 750 and 825°C and 1.5 kbar total pressure with fO2 defined by the C-CH4 buffer. Microthermometry and Raman spectroscopy show that the initial CO2-H2O inclusions become CO2-CH4-H2-H2Oinclusions after diffusive influx of hydrogen from the reducing confining medium. Measurable changes are observed in inclusion compositions after only 15 days of re-equilibration, implying significant hydrogen mobility at still lower temperatures over geological time spans. Results of synthetic inclusion re-equilibrium experiments have profound implications for the interpretation of natural fluid-inclusion data; failure to account for potential hydrogen migration in inclusions from high-temperature geological environments may lead to erroneous estimates of P-T, and/or the compositions of metamorphic fluids.

Notes: Abstract Fe-Mg carpholite occurs in metasediments of tectonically disrupted basement, shelf and foreland basin units that structurally underlie the Semail ophiolite in NE Oman. In the lower grade, structurally higher units, Fe-rich carpholite coexists with paragonite, quartz, illite, kaolinite and chlorite, whereas in deeper units, Fe-Mg carpholite occurs with pyrophyllite, sudoite, phengite and/or chloritoid. Mineral compositions in these units indicate that chlorite is more magnesian than coexisting Fe-Mg carpholite at low temperatures and pressures but, at higher metamorphic grades, XMg decreases in the order sudoite 〉 carpholite 〉 chlorite 〉 chloritoid. This suggests a reversal in Fe-Mg partitioning between Fe-Mg carpholite and chlorite at temperatures below or close to those of the breakdown of kaolinite + quartz to pyrophyllite and at XMg= 0.35.Phase relations and mineral equilibria indicate that the P-T conditions of formation of the Fe-Mg-carpholite-bearing rocks of NE Oman range from 280–315° C, 3–6 kbar for the structurally highest units to 325–440° C, 6–9.5 kbar for the deepest units, indicating a systematic down-section increase in metamorphic grade. Textural relations in these rocks, interpreted in the context of pertinent equilibria, are consistent with the clockwise P-T paths previously constrained for these units from petrological studies of interlayered isofacial mafic rocks.

Notes: Metamorphic Petrology. By Akiho Miyashiro. UCL Press Ltd, London, 1994. ISBN 1-85728-037-7 (HB), 1-85728-038-7 (PB)

Notes: Abstract The Santiago Schists are located in the Basal Unit of the Ordenes Complex, one of the allochthonous complexes outcropping in the inner part of the Hercynian Belt in the north-west of the Iberian Peninsula. Their tectonothermal evolution is characterized by the development of an eo-Hercynian metamorphic episode (c. 374 Ma) of high-P, low- to intermediate-T. The mineral assemblage of the high-P episode is preserved as a very thin Si= S1 foliation included in albite porphyroblasts, being composed of: albite + garnet-I + white mica-1 + chlorite-1 + epidote + quartz + rutile ± ilmenite. The equilibrium conditions for this mineral assemblage have been estimated by means of different thermobarometers at 495 ± 10 °C and 14.7 ± 0.7 kbar (probably minimum pressure). The later evolution (syn-D2) of the schists defines a decompressive and slightly prograde P-T path which reached its thermal peak at c. 525 ± 10 °C and 7 kbar. Decompression of the unit occurred contemporaneously with an inversion of the metamorphic gradient, so that the zones of garnet-II, biotite (with an upper subzone with chloritoid) and staurolite developed from bottom to top of the formation.The estimated P-T path for the Santiago Schists suggests that the Basal Unit, probably a fragment of the Gondwana continental margin, was uplifted immediately after its subduction at the beginning of the Hercynian Orogeny. It also suggests that the greater part of the unroofing history of the unit took place in a context of ductile extension, probably related to the continued subduction of the Gondwana continental margin and the contemporaneous development of compensatory extension above it. The inverted metamorphic gradient seems related to conductive heat transferred from a zone of the mantle wedge above the subducted continental margin, when it came into contact with the upper parts of the schists along a detachment, probably of extensional character.The general metamorphic evolution of the Santiago Schists, with the development of high-P assemblages with garnet prior to decompressive and prograde parageneses with biotite, is unusual in the context of the European Hercynian Belt, and shows a close similarity to the tectonothermal evolution of several high-P, low- to intermediate-T circum-Pacific belts.

Notes: Abstract Low-pressure/high-temperature (low-P/high-T) metamorphic rocks of the Cooma Complex, southeastern Australia, show evidence of an anticlockwise pressure-temperature-time-deformation (P-T-t-D) path, similar to those of some other low-P/high-T metamorphic areas of Australia. Prograde paths are reasonably well constrained in cordierite-andalusite schists, cordierite-K-feldspar gneisses and andalusite-K-feldspar gneisses. These paths are inferred to be convex to the temperature axis, involving increase in pressure with increase in temperature. Evidence of the retrograde path is inconclusive, but is consistent with approximately isobaric cooling, as are available isotopic data on the Cooma Granodiorite, which indicate initially rapid cooling following attainment of peak temperatures. The retrograde path is inconsistent with either a clockwise P-T-t-D path involving rapid or even moderate decompression immediately post-dating the peak of metamorphism, or a path in which the retrograde component simply reverses the prograde component, because both these paths should cross reactions forming cordierite from aluminosilicate, for which no evidence has been observed.Determination of the deformational-metamorphic history of the complex is not straightfoward and depends on careful examination of critical samples. Evidence necessary for successful elucidation of the prograde, and part of the retrograde, deformational-metamorphic history in the Cooma Complex includes: (1) sequentially grown porphyroblasts that can be timed relative to surrounding foliations; (2) partial replacement microstructures providing relative timing of metamorphic reactions that cannot be timed relative to foliation development; (3) a tectonic marker foliation (S4 at Cooma) that allows correlation of foliations from one location to another; and (4) single samples containing all of the foliations and all generations of porphyroblast growth within a single metamorphic zone. The latest two or three foliations involve low strain accumulation, allowing relative timing relationships between foliations and porphyroblasts to be more clearly determined.Sequential porphyroblast growth and foliation development in the cordierite-andalusite schists is examined for situations involving rotation and non-rotation of porphyroblasts relative to geographically fixed coordinates. Although the number of foliations developed varies in the rotational situation, depending on the deformation history proposed, the sequential order of porphyroblast growths does not differ from the non-rotational situation. Thus, whether or not porphyroblasts rotated in the Cooma rocks, the sequence of reactions, and therefore P-T-t paths inferred from the relative timing of porphyroblast growths, remain the same, for the deformational histories evaluated.

Notes: Abstract Observations and microthermometric data on fluid inclusions from a terrane that underwent deformation following peak metamorphic conditions show that grain-boundary migration recrystallization favours the entrapment of carbonic inclusions whereas microfracturing during brittle deformation favours the infiltration and eventual entrapment of aqueous fluids. Our results imply that pure CO2 fluid inclusions in metamorphic rocks are likely to be the residue of deformation-recrystallization process rather than representing a primary metamorphic fluid.Where the temperature of deformation can be deduced by other means, the densities of fluid inclusions trapped during recrystallization, which we call recrystallization-primary fluid inclusions, can be used to constrain the ambient pressure during deformation. Using these constraints, the data imply that the post-metamorphic Hercynian exhumation in Sardinia brought rocks at 300° C to within 3km of the surface. This conclusion is similar to that described for the rapidly uplifted Southern Alps in New Zealand.

Notes: Abstract Metapelitic and charnockitic granulites exposed around Chilka Lake in the northern sector of the Eastern Ghats, India, preserve a multi-stage P—T record. A high-T decompression from above 10 kbar to 8 kbar around 1100°C has been determined from Mg-rich metapelites (XMg〉0.60) with quartz-cordierite-orthopyroxene-sillimanite and cordierite—orthopyroxene—sapphirine—spinel assemblages. Between this and a second decompression to 6.0 kbar, isobaric cooling from 830 to 670°C at 8 kbar is evident. These changes are registered by the rim compositions of orthopyroxene and garnet in charnockites and metapelites with an orthopyroxene—quartz—garnet—plagioclase—cordierite assemblage, and are further supported by the garnet + quartz ± orthopyroxene + cordierite and biotite-producing reactions in sapphirine-bearing metapelites. Another indication of isobaric cooling from 800 to 650°C at 6.0 kbar is evident from rim compositions of orthopyroxene and garnet in patchy charnockites. Two sets of P—T values are obtained from metapelites with a quartz—plagioclase—garnet—sillimanite—cordierite assemblage: garnet and plagioclase cores yield 6.2 kbar, 700°C and the rims 5 kbar, 650°C, suggesting a third decompression.The earliest deformation (F1) structures are preserved in the larger charnockite bodies and the metapelites which retain the high P—T record. The effects of post-crystalline F2 deformation are observed in garnet megacrysts formed during or prior to F1 in some metapelites. Fold styles indicate a compressional regime during F1 and an extensional regime during F2. These lines of evidence and two phases of cooling at different pressures point to a discontinuity after the first cooling, and imply reworking.Two segments of the present P—T path replicate parts of the P—T paths suggested for four other granulite terranes in the Eastern Ghats, and the sense of all the paths is the same. This, plus the signature of three phases of deformation identified in the Eastern Ghats, suggests that the Chilka Lake granulites could epitomize the metamorphic evolution of the Eastern Ghats.

Notes: Abstract The Chuncheon amphibolite, part of the Gubongsan Group which overlies the Yongduri gneiss complex, is interlayered with calc-silicate rock, marble, quartzite, biotite schist and quartzofeldspathic gneiss in the central Gyeonggi massif, South Korea. Metamorphic pressures and temperatures estimated from the amphibolite are 5.5–10.6 kbar and 615–714°C. These P—T conditions are close to those defined by the reaction curve between kyanite and sillimanite, and suggest medium-pressure-type metamorphism of the Chuncheon amphibolite. For two metapelites intercalated with the amphibolite, temperatures are estimated to be 607–699° C, consistent with those obtained from the amphibolite. On the other hand, pressures estimated from these metapelites are significantly different, 4–6 kbar and 9–13 kbar, when rim and core compositions of garnet are, respectively, used. These P—T estimates obtained from the amphibolite and metapelite suggest a nearly isothermal decompression of 3–7 kbar during denudation. Rapid decompression is likely on the basis of the results of mineral chemistry, phase equilibria and geothermobarometer. Moreover, in conjunction with the occurrence of kyanite in the adjacent Gyeonggi gneiss complex, P—T estimates of the Chuncheon amphibolite and metapelite suggest a clockwise P—T—t path. This evolutionary path may be related to the amalgamation of continents during the late Proterozoic event which corresponds to the Jinningian orogeny in the Qinling belt of China.

Notes: Abstract The Ruby terrane is an elongate fragment of continental crustal rocks that is structurally overlain by thrust slices of oceanic crust. Our results from the Kokrines Hills, in the south-central part of the Ruby terrane, demonstrate that the low-angle schistose fabric formed under high-P/low-T conditions, at peak conditions of 10.8-13.2 kbar and 425-550° C, consistent with the rare occurrence of glaucophane. White mica 40Ar/39Ar cooling ages from these blueschists indicate that the metamorphism occurred prior to 144 ± 1 Ma. The blueschist facies assemblages are partially replaced by greenschist facies assemblages in the eastern Kokrines Hills. In contrast, in the central and western Kokrines Hills, upper amphibolite to lower granulite facies metamorphism associated with extensive late Early Cretaceous plutonism has completely overprinted any evidence of an earlier high-P/T metamorphic history. Deformation accompanying the plutonism produced recumbent isoclinal folds in the plutonic rocks and pelitic gneisses of the wallrock; decompression reactions in the pelitic gneisses suggest that the deformation occurred during exhumation. Thermochronological data bracket the time of intrusion and cooling below 500° C between 118 ± 3 and 109 ± 1 Ma.Our data from the schists of the Ruby terrane support the general assumption of many authors that the Ruby terrane was subducted beneath an oceanic island arc. This tectonic history is similar to that described for other large continental crustal blocks in northern and central Alaska, in the Brooks Range, Seward Peninsula and Yukon-Tanana Upland. The current orientation of the Ruby terrane at an oblique angle to these other crustal blocks and to the Cordilleran trend is due to post-collisional tectonic processes that have greatly modified the original continental margin.

Notes: Abstract Metagreywackes in the Eastern Belt of the Franciscan Complex contain the assemblage: Qtz + Ab + Lws + Chl + Ph + Pmp + Fgl + Hem ° Cal/Arg or compatible subassemblages. Blue amphibole first appears in the westernmost part of the belt and pumpellyite is absent in the eastern part. The compositions of the coexisting minerals and the nature of the continuous reactions in these low-grade blueschists suggest that the distribution of blue amphibole and pumpellyite in the Eastern Belt of the Franciscan Complex reflects differences of effective bulk composition rather than differences in physical conditions of metamorphism. In rocks lacking pumpellyite, white mica may be essential to the growth of blue amphibole, but carbonate plays only a limited role. The continuous reaction that limits the appearance of blue amphibole and the disappearance of coexisting pumpellyite has the general form: Pmp + Chl + Ab + Qtz + Hem + H2O + FeMg-1= Fgl + Lws. This reaction requires significant hydration as pressure increases in order to produce blue amphibole. Most of the Eastern Belt of the Franciscan Complex formed in limited ranges of temperature and pressure, which are estimated to be 240—280° C, 6.5-7.5 kbar. Pressures in the westernmost part of the area were about 1 kbar lower than in the east. Pressures of about 8.5-10 kbar are estimated for tectonic blocks that contain sodic clinopyroxene.

Notes: Abstract Petrological study of highly strained carbonate and pelitic rocks within the contact aureole surrounding the western part of the Papoose Flat pluton yields thermal profiles (plots of metamorphic temperature versus distance) across the aureole that show temperature gradients which are relatively flat and narrow (〈100m). The gradients occur close to the contact and indicate a slight decrease in temperature from 500–550°C at the pluton/wall rock contact to 450–500°C at the outer margin of the aureole. One thermal profile across low-strain metasedimentary rocks located in the southern part of the aureole shows that thermal effects from emplacement extend no further than 600 m from the contact. Coexistence of andalusite and cordierite in pelitic rocks of the aureole constrain pressures to 〈4 kbar. Thermal modelling using an analytical solution of the conductive heat flow equation for a rectangular-shaped pluton reproduces the observed thermal maxima and profile shape. Conductive rather than convective cooling also is supported by isotopic and field evidence for limited fluid flow along the strongly deformed margin of the pluton. Simple thermal models coupled with observed high-temperature deformation features and a measured 90% attenuation of stratigraphic units in the plastically deformed western part of the pluton's aureole indicate that strain rates may have been of the order of 10-12s-1. Evidence for episodic heating, such as two distinct generations of andalusite growth in pelites from the aureole, alternatively may indicate a longer heating event and, therefore, slower strain rates. Thermal models also indicate that parts of the pluton still may have been above the solidus during deformation of the pluton margin and aureole.

Notes: Abstract The Protogine Zone comprises a system of anastomosing deformation zones which approximately parallel the eastern boundary of the Sveconorwegian (1200–900 Ma) province in south-west Sweden. Ages of granulite facies metamorphism in the Sveconorwegian province require exhumation from c. 30 to 35 km crustal depths after 920–880 Ma. 40Ar/39 Ar cooling ages are presented for muscovite from high-alumina rocks formed by hydrothermal leaching associated with the Protogine Zone. Growth of fabric-defining minerals was associated with a ductile deformational event; muscovite from these rocks cooled below argon retention temperatures (c. 375 ± 25° C) at c. 965–955 Ma. Muscovite from granofels in zones of intense alteration indicates that temperatures 〉 375 ± 25° C were maintained until c. 940 Ma. Textural relations of Al2SiO5 polymorphs and chloritoid suggest that dated fabrics formed during exhumation. The process of exhumation, brittle overprint on ductile structures and hydrothermal activity along faults within the Protogine Zone tentatively are interpreted as the peripheral effects of initial Neoproterozoic exhumation of the granulite region of south-western Sweden.Muscovite in phyllonites associated with the ‘Sveconorwegian thrust system’cooled below argon retention temperatures at c. 927 Ma. Exhumation associated with this cooling could have been related to extension and onset of brittle-ductile deformation superimposed on Sveconorwegian contraction.

Notes: Abstract Orientated symplectites have been observed in deformed granulite facies metabasic rocks from the Ivrea-Verbano zone in northern Italy. The area underwent lower crustal extension, accommodated by movement on localized high-T shear zones. In areas of relatively low strain, such as at the margins of shear zones, symplectites of orthopyroxene, plagioclase and spinel have formed. The symplectites are vermiform and orientated parallel to the main foliation and in the regional stretching direction. The reaction was synkinematic with the deformation, and only developed in potentially dilatant grain boundaries in the rock. It was presumably inhibited in grain boundaries subjected to higher normal stress due to the relatively large volume increase involved in the reaction.The observations support the interpretation that the deformation was related to regional extension under high-T granulite facies conditions, the symplectites forming as a result of decreasing pressure.

Notes: Abstract The E-W-trending Kohistan terrane in the NW Himalaya is a sandwich of a magmatic arc between the collided Karakoram (Asian) and Indian plates. The southern part of the Kohistan arc is principally made up of amphibolites derived from volcanic and plutonic rocks of Early Cretaceous age. Gabbroic relics in the amphibolites display calc-alkaline character, and their mineralogy is similar to low-P plutonic rocks reported from modern and ancient island arcs. The largest of these relics, occurring along the southern margin of the amphibolite belt near Khwaza Khela, is subcircular in outline and is about 1 km across. It consists of cumulate gabbros and related rocks displaying a record of cooling and crustal thickening. Primary olivine and anorthite reacted to produce coronas consisting of two pyroxenes +Mg-Fe2+-Al spinel ± tschermakitic hornblende at about 800° C, 5.5–7.5 kbar. This thermotectonic event is of regional extent and may be related to the overthrusting of the Karakoram plate onto the Kohistan arc some 85 Ma ago, or even earlier. Later the gabbros were locally traversed by veins containing high-P assemblages: garnet, kyanite, zoisite, paragonite, oligoclase, calcite, scapolite and quartz ° Chlorite ° Corundum ± diopside. Formed in the range 510–600° C, and 10–12 kbar, these suggest further thickening and cooling of the crust before its uplift during the Tertiary. This paper presents microprobe data on the minerals, and discusses the tectonic implications of the coronitic and vein assemblages in the gabbros.

Notes: Abstract Granulite facies marbles from the Upper Calcsilicate Unit of the Reynolds Range, central Australia, contain metre-scale wollastonite-bearing layers formed by infiltration of water-rich (XCO2= 0.1–0.3) fluids close to the peak of regional metamorphism at c. 700° C. Within the wollastonite marbles, zones that contain 〈10% wollastonite alternate on a millimetre scale with zones containing up to 66% wollastonite. Adjacent wollastonite-free marbles contain up to 11% quartz that is uniformly distributed. This suggests that, although some wollastonite formed by the reaction calcite + quartz = wollastonite + CO2, the wollastonite-rich zones also underwent silica metasomatism. Time-integrated fluid fluxes required to cause silica metasomatism are one to two orders of magnitude higher than those required to hydrate the rocks, implying that time-integrated fluid fluxes varied markedly on a millimetre scale. Interlayered millimetre -to centimetre-thick marls within the wollastonite marbles contain calcite + quartz without wollastonite. These marls were probably not infiltrated by significant volumes of water-rich fluids, providing further evidence of local fluid channelling. Zones dominated by grandite garnet at the margins of the marl layers and marbles in the wollastonite-bearing rocks probably formed by Fe metasomatism, and may record even higher fluid fluxes. The fluid flow also reset stable isotope ratios. The wollastonite marbles have average calcite (Cc) δ18O values of 15.4 ± 1.6% that are lower than the average δ18O(Cc) value of wollastonite-free marbles (c. 17.2 ± 1.2%). δ13C(Cc) values for the wollastonite marbles vary from 0.4% to as low as -5.3%, and correlations between δ18O(Cc) and δ13C(Cc) values probably result from the combination of fluid infiltration and devolatilization. Fluids were probably derived from aluminous pegmatites, and the pattern of mineralogical and stable isotope resetting implies that fluid flow was largely parallel to strike.

Notes: Books reviewed in this article: Biotic Interactions and Global Change P. M. Kareiva, J. G., Kingsolver, and R. B. Huey, editors Defining Sustainable Forests G.H. Aplet, N. Johnson, J. T. Olson, and V. A. Sample, editors

Notes: Despite this nation's massive effort during the past 90 years to build levees throughout the upper Mississippi Basin, mean annual flood damage in the region has increased 140% during that time. These levees exacerbate the flood damage problem by increasing river stage and velocity. Thus, rather than continuing to rely on structural solutions for flood control, it is time to develop a comprehensive flood management strategy that includes using wetlands to intercept and hold precipitation where it falls and store flood waters where they occur. History testifies to the truth of this premise: it was the rampant drainage of wetlands in the nineteenth century that gave rise to many of today's water resources management problems. The 1993 flood verifies the need for additional wetlands: the amount of excess water that passed St. Louis during the 1993 flood would have covered a little more than 13 million acres —half of the wetland acreage drained since 1780 in the upper Mississippi Basin. By strategically placing at least 13 million acres of wetlands on hydric soils in the basin, we can solve the basin's flooding problems in an ecologically sound manner.

Notes: We consider the general problem of price discrimination with nonlinear pricing in an oligopoly setting where firms are spatially differentiated. We characterize the nature of optimal pricing schedules, which in turn depends importantly upon the type of private information the customer possesses–either horizontal uncertainty regarding brand preference or vertical uncertainty regarding quality preference. We show that as competition increases, the resulting quality distortions decrease, as well as price and quality dispersions. Additionally, we indicate conditions under which price discrimination may raise social welfare by increasing consumer surplus through encouraging greater entry.

Notes: We model an internal labor market in which employee behavior and compensation are affected by the firm's financial position and the threat of hostile takeover or other exercise of shareholder “voice.” We show how good past performance can result in excessively generous promotion and pay decisions. While the threat of shareholder activism will remove this “slack,” activists optimally face a positive cost barrier, which in turn varies across firms. The cost barrier is higher when cooperation or “helping” between employees is more important, and is lower when employees receive efficiency wages due to an inability to “pay” for their jobs. Since the importance of helping is associated with pay compression and “flat” pay ladders, such firms should also exhibit a greater degree of management entrenchment.

Notes: The literature on the incentives for R & D cooperation with spillovers typically deals only with the factors affecting cooperative profits. This paper focuses on the incentives to cheat and the stability of such cooperative agreements in a repeated game framework. It is shown that the stability of cooperation is influenced by the nature and magnitude of spillovers, relative to the nature and degree of product market competition. While cooperative profits are higher with large positive (exogenous, unintended) know-how spillovers, such as in fundamental research, our anslysis shows that it may be easier to sustain cooperation in areas with lower spillovers, such as applied research, because of the smaller incenfives to cheat on the initial agreement, at least when firms produce substitutes. Alternatively, the possibility of technology sharing (i.e., intended or endogenous spillovers), besides R&D coordination, not only increases cooperative profits but also reduces the incentives to defect from a cooperative equilibrium.

Notes: In a moral hazard setting, we model the fact that the agent may get private signals about the final outcome of his effort before the public realization of this outcome. Actions affect both the distribution of the outcome and the quality of the agent's private information. We compare simple contracts, based on output only, with revelation contracts, based on output and messages about signals. Revelation contracts give the agent some discretionary power during the course of the relationship; they are optimal if and only if lowering effort does not increase the quality of private information in the sense of Blackwell (1953). In the context of managerial compensation schemes, the revelation contracts we analyze can be viewed as allowing the agent to exercise an option on the final profits before the realization of these profits. The theory thus provides an alternative justification of the widespread use of stock options in managerial compensation schemes, as opposed to compensation schemes that rely only on salary, bonus, and (restricted) stock plans.

Notes: Analysis of seven wholesale and retail markets for long-distance telephone services since the AT & T divestiture indicates that service provider concentration declined in the later 1980s and then stabilized in the 2990–1993 period. In addition to this stability in market shares, a number of other conditions established since 1990 have been conducive to the development of market sharing rather than significant price competition. The most important of these conditions has been the tarifing process of the Federal Communications Commission by which MCI and Sprint replicate ATGT's price announcements. As market shares stabilized and became more equal, and as regulation formalized the price-setting process, the price-cost margins of the three large carriers increased and became more nearly identical. These results are consistent not with price competition but rather with emerging tacit collusion among AT&T, MCI, and Sprint.

Notes: The Federal Communications Commission held its first auction of radio spectrum at the Nationwide Narrowband PCS Auction in July 1994. The simultaneous multiple-round auction, which lasted five days, was an ascending bid auction in which all licenses were offered simultaneously. This paper describes the auction rules and how bidders prepared for the auction. The full history of bidding is presented. Several questions for auction theory are discussed. In the end, the government collected $617 million for ten licenses. The auction was viewed by all as a huge success an excellent example of bringing economic theory to bear on practical problems of allocating scarce resources.

Notes: This study examines the investment patterns of all large local exchange telephone companies in the United States over time. It identifies how different regulatoy environments have influenced the recent historical pattern of investment in modern infrastructure equipment. It focuses exclusively on the postdivestiture experience of local telephone exchange companies (LECs). It examines the growth of fiber-optic deployment and of complementary equipment associated with the modernization of today's information infrastructure. The study estimates the influence of different regulatory structures on infrastructure deployment by LECs. The study is unique in that if relates individual LEC investment patterns to LEC-specific regulatory, demographic, and economic characteristics. Thus, it isolates the contribution of state regulatory policies from that of other demographic and economic factors in the determination of infrastructure deployment at the state LEC rather than at the corporate level. Its main findings are as follows: First, price regulation (and, in particular, price caps) is a more potent regulatory mechanism than the standard earnings sharing scheme. Second, when associated with an earnings sharing scheme, price regulation is less effective in triggering infrastructure deployment than when it is implemented by itself. These results raise questions about the effectiveness of a popular regulatory instrument-earnings sharing schemes-and highlight the effectiveness of generic price-cap regulation. These results have implications for the design of regulatory policy at both the state and federal levels. In particular, given the importance currently being placed on the development of the information superhighway, regulatory emphasis should be focused more on price regulation than on regulating profits.

Notes: The House and Senate of the United States Congress recently passed legislation that directs the FCC to establish a system for using auctions to allocate the use of radio spectrum for personal communications services. There is a unique and unprecedented set of issues that arise in this context, which are of interest to economists, industry analysts, regulators, and policymakers. We discuss these issues and evaluate their likely impact on the outcome of the spectrum auctions. In addition, we argue that there may be pitfalls in the auction procedure adopted by the FCC, and we discuss possible alternative procedures.

Notes: Royalty payments from a franchisee to a franchisor serve as incentive for the franchisor to provide appropriate levels of quality and brand, name investment. However, since they also distort the service provided by the franchisee, we should expect relatively lower royalty rates in franchises that are primarily service-oriented. Casual examination of royalty rates across product-oriented and service-oriented franchises shows that the opposite is true, with service-type franchises enjoying higher royalty rates. We resolve this apparent puzzle. The basic argument we put forth is that in product-type franchises, a franchisor can charge a wholesale price on goods transferred to the franchisee, thus using an alternative instrument that also serves as an incentive for the franchisor. Moreover, in general, a franchisor will use both wholesale price and royalty to minimize distortions in retail price and service at the retail level. We then test the predictions of our model on different industries and find confirmation for the same.

Notes: When the transportation risk posed by shipments of hazardous chemical and radioactive materials is being assessed, it is necessary to evaluate therisks associated with both vehicle emissions and cargo-related risks. Diesel exhaust and fugitive dust emissions from vehicles transporting hazardous shipments lead to increased air pollution, which increases the risk of latent fatalities in the affected population along the transport route. The estimated risk from these vehicle-related sources can often be as large or larger than the estimated risk associated with the material being transported. In this paper, data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Motor Vehicle-Related Air Toxics Study are first used to develop latent cancer fatality estimates per kilometer of travel in rural and urban areas forall diesel truck classes. These unit risk factors are based on studies investigating the carcinogenic nature of diesel exhaust. With the same methodology, the current per-kilometer latent fatality risk factor used in transportation risk assessments for heavy diesel trucks in urban areas is revised and the analysis expanded to provide risk factors for rural areas and all diesel truck classes. These latter fatality estimates may include, but are not limited to, cancer fatalities and are based primarily on the most recent epidemiological data available on mortality rates associated with ambient air PM-10 concentrations.

Notes: Risk assessors often use different probability plots as a way to assessthe fit of a particular distribution or model by comparing the plotted points to a straight line and to obtain estimates of the parameters in parametric distributions or models. When empirical data do not fall in a sufficiently straight line on a probability plot, and when no other single parametricdistribution provides an acceptable (graphical) fit to the data, the risk assessor may consider a mixture model with two component distributions. Animated probability plots are a way to visualize the possible behaviors of mixture models with two component distributions. When no single parametric distribution provides an adequate fit to an empirical dataset, animated probability plots can help an analyst pick some plausible mixture models for the data based on their qualitative fit. After using animations during exploratory data analysis, the analyst must then use other statistical tools, including but not limited to: Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) to find the optimal parameters, Goodness of Fit (GoF) tests, and a variety of diagnostic plots to check the adequacy of the fit. Using a specific example with two LogNormal components, we illustrate the use of animated probability plots asa tool for exploring the suitability of a mixture model with two component distributions. Animations work well with other types of probability plots, and they may be extended to analyze mixture models with three or more component distributions.

Notes: For carcinogens, this paper provides a quantitative examination of the roles of potency and weight-of-evidence (WOE) in setting permissible exposure limits (PELs) at the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and threshold limit values (TLVs) at the private American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH). On normative grounds, both of these factors should influence choices about the acceptable level of exposures. Our major objective is to examine whether and in what ways these factors have been considered by these organizations. A lesser objective is to identify outliers, which might be candidates for further regulatory scrutiny. Our sample (N=48) includes chemicals for which EPA has estimated a unit risk as a measure of carcinogenic potency and for which OSHA or the ACGIH has a PEL or TLV. Different assessments of the strength of the evidence of carcinogenicity were obtained from EPA, ACGIH, and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. We found that potency alone explains 49% of the variation in PELs and 62% of the variation in TLVs. For the ACGIH, WOE plays a much smaller role than potency. TLVs set by the ACGIH since 1989 appear to be stricter than earlier TLVs. We suggest that this change represents evidence that the ACGIH had responded to criticisms leveled at it in the late 1980s for failing to adopt sufficiently protective standards. The models developed here identify 2-nitropropane, ethylene dibromide, and chromium as having OSHA PELs significantly higher than predicted on the basis of potency and WOE.

Notes: Much has been written about the development and application of quantitative methods for estimating under uncertainty the long-term radiological performance of underground disposal of radioactive wastes. Until recently, interest has been focused almost entirely on the technical challenges regardless of the role of the organization responsible for these analyses. Now the dialogue between regulators, the repository developer or operator, and other interested parties in the decision-making process receives increasing attention, especially in view of some current difficulties in obtaining approvals to construct or operate deep facilities for intermediate or high-level wastes. Consequently, it is timely to consider the options for regulators’review and evaluation of safety submissions, at the various stages in the site selection to repository closure process, and to consider, especially, the role for performance assessment (PA) within the programs of a regulator both before and after delivery of such a submission. The origins and broad character of present regulations in the European Union (EU) and in the OECD countries are outlined and some regulatory PA reviewed. The issues raised are discussed, especially in regard to the interpretation of regulations, the dangers from the desire for simplicity in argument, the use of regulatory PA to review and challenge the PA in the safety case, and the effects of the relationship between proponent and regulator. Finally, a very limited analysis of the role of PA in public hearings is outlined and recommendations are made, together with proposals for improving the mechanisms for international collaboration on technical issues of regulatory concern.

Notes: In this paper the problem of high-level nuclear waste disposal is viewed as a five-stage, cascaded decision problem. The first four of these decisions having essentially been made, the work of recent years has been focused on the fifth stage, which concerns specifics of the repository design. The probabilistic performance assessment (PPA) work is viewed as the outcome prediction for this stage, and the site characterization work as the information gathering option. This brief examination of the proposed Yucca Mountain repository through a decision analysis framework resulted in three conclusions: (1) A decision theory approach to the process of selecting and characterizing Yucca Mountain would enhance public understanding of the issues and solutions to high-level waste management; (2) engineered systems are an attractive alternative to offset uncertainties in the containment capability of the natural setting and should receive greater emphasis in the design of the repository; and (3) a strategy of “waste management” should be adopted, as opposed to “waste disposal,” as it allows for incremental confirmation and confidence building of a permanent solution to the high-level waste problem.

Notes: Physiologically-based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models are widely used to quantify whole-body kinetics of various substances. However, since they attempt to reproduce anatomical structures and physiological events, they have ahigh number of parameters. Their identification from kinetic data alone is often impossible, and other information about the parameters is needed to render the model identifiable. The most commonly used approach consists of independently measuring, or taking fom literature sources, some of the parameters, fixing them in the kinetic model, and then performing model identification on a reduced number of less certain parameters. This results in a substantial reduction of the degrees of freedom of the model. In this study, we show that this method results in final estimates of the free parameters whose precision is overestimated. We then compared this approach with an empirical Bayes approach, which takes into account not only the mean value, but also the error associated with the independently determined parameters. Blood and breath 2H8- toluene washout curves, obtained in17 subjects, were analyzed with a previously presented PBTK model suitable for person-specific dosimetry. Model parameters with the greatest effect onpredicted levels were alveolar ventilation rate QPC, fat tissue fraction VFC, blood air partition coefficient Kb, fraction of cardiac output to fat Qa/co and rate of extrahepatic metabolismVmax.p. Differences in the measured and Bayesian-fitted values of QPC, VFc and Kb were significant (p 〈 0.05), andthe precision of the fitted values Vmax.p and Qa/co went from 11 ± 5% to 75 ± 170% (NS) and from 8 ± 2% to 9 ± 2% (p 〈 0.05) respectively. The empirical Bayes approach did not result in less reliable parameter estimates: rather, it pointed out that the precision of parameter estimates can be overly optimistic when other parameters in the model, eitherdirectly measured or taken from literature sources, are treated as known without error. In conclusion, an empirical Bayes approach to parameter estimation resulted in a better model fit, different final parameter estimates, and more realistic parameter precisions.

Notes: The US Department of Transportation was interested in the risks associated with transporting Hydrazine in tanks with and without relief devices. Hydrazine is both highly toxic and flammable, as well as corrosive. Consequently, there was a conflict as to whether a relief device should be used or not. Data were not available on the impact of relief devices on release probabilities or the impact of Hydrazine on the likelihood of fires and explosions. In this paper, a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis of the unknown parameters was used to assess the risks associated with highway transport of Hydrazine. To help determine whether or not relief devices should be used, fault trees and event trees were used to model the sequences of events that could lead to adverse consequences during transport of Hydrazine. The event probabilities in the event trees were derived as functions of the parameters whose effects were not known. The impacts of these parameters on the riskof toxic exposures, fires, and explosions were analyzed through a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis and analyzed statistically through an analysis of variance. The analysis allowed the determination of which of the unknown parameters had a significant impact on the risks. It also provided the necessary support to a critical transportation decision even though the values of several key parameters were not known.

Notes: During the modernization of the municipal waste incinerator (MWI, maximum capacity of 180,000 tons per year) of Metropolitan Grenoble (405,000 inhabitants), in France, a risk assessment was conducted, based on four tracerpollutants: two volatile organic compounds (benzene and 1,1,1 trichloroethane) and two heavy metals (nickel and cadmium, measured in particles). A Gaussian plume dispersion model, applied to maximum emissions measured at the MWI stacks, was used to estimate the distribution of these pollutants in the atmosphere throughout the metropolitan area. A random sample telephone survey (570 subjects) gathered data on time-activity patterns, according to demographic characteristics of the population. Life-long exposure was assessed as a time-weighted average of ambient air concentrations. Inhalation alone was considered because, in the Grenoble urban setting, other routes of exposure are not likely. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to describe probability distributions of exposures and risks. The median of the life-long personal exposures distribution to MWI benzene was 3.2 · 10−5μg/m3 (20th and 80th percentiles = 1.5 · 10−5 and 6.5 · 10−5μg/m3), yielding a 2.6 · 10−10 carcinogenic risk (1.2 · 10−10 - 5.4 · 10−10). For nickel, the corresponding life-time exposure and cancer risk were 1.8 ·10−4μg/m3 (0.9 ·10−4 - 3.6 ·10−4μg/m3) and 8.6 · 10−8 (4.3 · 10−8 - 17.3 ·10−8); for cadmium they were respectively 8.3 ·10−6μg/m3 (4.0 ·10−6 - 17.6 ·10−6) and 1.5 · (7.2 · 10−9 - 3.1. · 10−8). Inhalation exposure to cadmium emitted by the MWI represented less than 1% of the WHO Air Quality Guideline (5 ng/m3), while there was a margin of exposure of more than 109 between the NOAEL (150 ppm) and exposure estimates to trichloroethane. Neither dioxins nor mercury, a volatile metal, were measured. This could lessen the attributable life-long risks estimated. The minute (VOCs and cadmium) to moderate (nickel) exposure and risk estimates are in accord with other studies on modern MWIs meeting recent emission regulations, however.

Notes: Methods of quantitative risk assessment for toxic responses that are measured on a continuous scale are not well established. Although risk-assessment procedures that attempt to utilize the quantitative information in such data have been proposed, there is no general agreement that these procedures are appreciably more efficient than common quantal dose-response procedures that operate on dichotomized continuous data. This paper points out an equivalence between the dose-response models of the nonquantal approach of Kodell and West(1)) and a quantal probit procedure, and provides results from a Monte Carlo simulation study to compare coverage probabilities of statistical lower confidence limits on dose corresponding to specified additional risk based on applying the two procedures to continuous data from a dose-response experiment. The nonquantal approach is shown to be superior, in terms of both statistical validity and statistical efficiency.

Notes: This paper discusses a successful public involvement effort that addressed and resolved several highly controversial water management issues involving environmental and flood risks associated with an electrical generation facility in British Columbia. It begins with a discussion of concepts for designing public involvement, summarizing research that indicates why individuals and groups may find it difficult to make complex choices. Reasons for public involvement, and the range of current practices are discussed. Next, four principles for designing group decision process are outlined, emphasizing decision-aiding concepts that include “value-focused thinking” and “adaptive management.” The next sections discuss the Alouette River Stakeholder Committee process in terms of objectives, participation, process, methods for structuring values and creating alternatives, information sources, and results. Discussion and conclusions complete the paper.

Notes: During the 1980s, seismic research suggested that Oregon and the City of Portland had a higher risk of a major earthquake than had previously been assumed. In 1993, the State of Oregon adopted a new version of the Oregon Structural Specialty Code, which changed the designation of western Oregon from seismic zone 2b to seismic zone 3. The City of Portland established a program and a Task Force on Seismic Strengthening of Buildings to recommend actions that would encourage upgrading of city buildings. A survey of adult city residents was conducted in April, 1996 to determine public attitudes and opinions about earthquake risks, management and mitigation of earthquake hazards, priorities for protection by strengthening buildings, evaluations of strategies for informing the public about earthquake risks, and support for specific options the city might take to protect citizens against earthquake events. Social and demographic information on individuals and households was also collected. Respondents provided ratings for a wide range of social and environmental risks, provided information on priorities for strengthening key buildings and infrastructure facilities, and answered hypothetical questions about voting for bond measures to pay for city earthquake mitigation programs. Respondents recognized significant risk from earthquakes and supported programs to protect people, especially vulnerable residents such as children and the sick. There was strong support for protecting emergency response capabilities. There was much less support for using public funds to reduce the risks associated with privately owned buildings. There were also some strong pockets of resistance to publicly funded mitigation programs in response to the hypothetical bond measures.

Notes: From a comprehensive search of the literature, the hormesis phenomenon was found to occur over a wide range of chemicals, taxonomic groups, and endpoints. By use of computer searches and extensive cross-referencing, nearly 3000 potentially relevant articles were identified. Evidence of chemical and radiation hormesis was judged to have occurred in approximately 10oO of these by use of a priori criteria. These criteria included study design features (e.g., number of doses, dose range), dose-response relationship, statistical analysis, and reproducibility of results. Numerous biological endpoints were assessed, with growth responses the most prevalent, followed by metabolic effects, reproductive responses, longevity, and cancer. Hormetic responses were generally observed to be of limited magnitude with an average maximum stimulation of 30 to 60 percent over that of the controls. This maximum usually occurred 4- to 5-fold below the NOAEL for a particular endpoint. The present analysis suggests that hormesis is a reproducible and generalizable biological phenomenon and is a fundamental component of many, if not most, dose-response relationships. The relatively infrequent observation of homesis in the literature is believed to be due primarily to experimental design considerations, especially with respect to the number and range of doses and endpoint selection. Because of regulatory considerations, most toxicologic studies have been carried out at high doses above the low-dose region where the hormesis phenomenon occurs.

Notes: As the use of digital computers for instrumentation and control of safety-critical systems has increased, there has been a growing debate over the issue of whether probabilistic risk assessment techniques can be applied to these systems. This debate has centered on the issue of whether software failures can be modeled probabilistically. This paper describes a “context-based” approach to software risk assessment that explicitly recognizes the fact that the behavior of software is not probabilistic. The source of the perceived uncertainty in its behavior results from both the input to the software as well as the application and environment in which the software is operating. Failures occur as the result of encountering some context for which the software was not properly designed, as opposed to the software simply failing “randomly.” The paper elaborates on the concept of “error-forcing context” as it applies to software. It also illustrates a methodology which utilizes event trees, fault trees, and the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) to identify “error-forcing contexts” for software in the form of fault tree prime implicants.

Notes: Australian state and federal agencies use a broad range of methods for setting conservation priorities for species at risk. Some of these are based on rule sets developed by the International Union for the Conservation ofNature, while others use point scoring protocols to assess threat. All of them ignore uncertainty in the data. In this study, we assessed the conservation status of 29 threatened vascular plants from Tasmania and New South Wales using a variety of methods including point scoring and rule-based approaches. In addition, several methods for dealing with uncertainty in the data were applied to each of the prioritysetting schemes. The results indicatethat the choice of a protocol for setting priorities and the choice of the way in which uncertainty is treated may make important differences to the resulting assessments of risk. The choice among methods needs to be rationalized within the management context in which it is to be applied. These methods are not a substitute for more formal risk assessment.

Notes: This paper describes a multi-stakeholder process designed to assess thepotential health risks associated with adverse air quality in an urban industrial neighborhood. The paper briefly describes the quantitative health risk assessment conducted by scientific experts, with input by a grassroots community group concerned about the impacts of adverse air quality on theirhealth and quality of life. In this case, rather than accept the views of the scientific experts, the community used their powers of perception toadvantage by successfully advocating for a professionally conducted community health survey. This survey was designed to document, systematically and rigorously, the health risk perceptions community members associated with exposure to adverse air quality in their neighborhood. This paper describes theinstitutional and community contexts within which the research is situated as well as the design, administration, analysis, and results of the community health survey administered to 402 households living in an urban industrial neighborhood in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. These survey results served tolegitimate the community's concerns about air quality and tohelp broaden operational definitions of ‘health.’ In addition, the resultsof both healthrisk assessment exercises served to keep issues of air quality on the localpolitical agenda. Implications of these findings for our understanding of theenvironmental justice process as well as the ability of communitiesto influence environmental health policy are discussed.

Notes: Psychometric data on risk perceptions are often collected using the method developed by Slovic, Fischhoff, and Lichtenstein, where an array of risk issues are evaluated with respect to a number of risk characteristics, such as how dreadful, catastrophic or involuntary exposure to each risk is. The analysis of these data has often been carried out at an aggregate level, where mean scores for all respondents are compared between risk issues. However, this approach may conceal important variation between individuals, and individual analyses have also been performed for single risk issues. This paper presents a new methodological approach using a technique called multilevel modelling for analysing individual and aggregated responses simultaneously, to produce unconditional and unbiased results at both individual and aggregate levels of the data. Two examples are given using previously published data sets on risk perceptions collected by the authors, and results between the traditional and new approaches compared. The discussion focuses on the implications of and possibilities provided by the new methodology.

Notes: Abstract Rock fracture enhances permeability and provides pathways through which fluids migrate. During contact metamorphism, fluids contained in isolated pores and fractures expand in response to temperature increases caused by the dissipation of heat from magmas. Heat transport calculations and thermomechanical properties of water-rich fluids demonstrate (1) that thermal energy is a viable mechanism to produce and maintain pore fluid pressure (Pf) in a contact metamorphic aureole; (2) that the magnitude of Pf generated is sufficient to propagate fractures during the prograde thermal history (cause hydrofracture) and enhance permeability; and (3) that Pf-driven fracture propagation is episodic with time-scales ranging from years to thousands of years. Because Pf dissipation is orders of magnitude faster than P, f buildup, Pf oscillations and cyclical behaviour are generated as thermal heating continues. The Pf cycle amplitude depends on the initial fracture length, geometry and the rock's resistance to failure whereas the frequency of fracture depends on the rate of heating. Consequently, oscillation frequency also varies spatially with distance from the heat source.Time series of fluid pressures caused by this process suggest that cyclical fracture events are restricted to an early time period of the prograde thermal event near the intrusive contact. In the far field, however, individual fracture events have a lower frequency but continue to occur over a longer time interval. Numerous fracture cycles are possible within a single thermal event. This provides a provisional explanation for multiple generations of veins observed in outcrop. P f cycling and oscillations may explain several petrological features. If pore fluids are trapped at various positions along a pressure cycle, the large amplitude of Pf variations for small fractures may account for different pressures recorded by fluid inclusions analysed from a single sample. Pf oscillations, during a single thermal episode, also drive chemical reactions which can produce complex mineral textures and assemblages for discontinuous reactions and/or zoning patterns for continuous reactions. These can mimic polymetamorphic or disequilibrium features.Temporal aspects of fracture propagation and permeability enhancement also constrain the likely timing of fluid flow and fluid-mineral interactions. These data suggest that fluid flow and fluid-mineral reactions are likely to be restricted to an early period in the prograde thermal history, characterized by high Pf coincident with relatively high temperatures, fracture propagation and consequent increases in permeability. This early prograde hydration event is followed by diffusional peak metamorphic reactions. This relationship is evident in the complex mineralogical textures common in some metamorphosed rocks.

Notes: Abstract Andalusite-bearing veins formed during contact metamorphism in the aureole of the Vedrette di Ries tonalite. In the veins, quartz crystals that are completely armoured by andalusite or that occur in strain shadow areas contain three generations of fluid inclusions: low-salinity H2O-CO2-CH4 mixtures with CH4/(CO2+ CH4) ± 0.35 (type A); low-salinity aqueous fluids (type B); H2O-free, CO2-CH4 fluids with the same carbonic speciation as A (type C). Carbonic types A and C typically have a dark appearance, which is attributed to graphite coatings on inclusion walls. Microstructural analysis of the host quartz and calculated densities indicate that type A inclusions were likely trapped during vein formation. These inclusions underwent strain-assisted re-equilibration during cooling that resulted in density increases without change of composition. After the rocks had cooled below about 350 ° C, type C inclusions appear to have formed from one of the immiscible fractions after unmixing of the H2O-CO2-CH4 fluid mixtures. Aqueous type B inclusions, apparently trapped between 225 and 350 ° C, could represent an independent fluid, or could be the H2O-rich fraction of unmixed type A fluids. Taking account of the uncertainties, the composition and density of the complex type A inclusion fluids are in good agreement with the properties of primary fluids calculated from the petrological data. The fluid inclusion data support the model of vein formation by hydrofracturing as a result of dehydration of graphitic metapelites. These new results also demonstrate the importance of considering strain in the interpretation of metamorphic fluid inclusions.

Notes: Abstract Aqueous fluid released in metamorphism is transported upwards from depth to the Earth's surface. I propose a hydrofracturing model for the fluid transport. In the model, fluid is transported by the upward propagation of a two-dimensional vertical fluid-filled crack from a fluid reservoir (e.g. overpressured compartment under a seal) at depth to the Earth's surface; fluid is injected consecutively from the reservoir into the crack at a given (but not necessarily constant) injection rate; some of the injected fluid is lost by infiltration from the crack walls into the surrounding permeable rock. An approximate solution of the crack propagation is obtained using fluid dynamics for turbulent film flow and linear elastic fracture mechanics. The solution shows the transition from a regime in which the excess pressure of the fluid in the reservoir drives the propagation to a regime in which the buoyancy of the fluid in the crack drives the propagation. For example, if the net injection rate of H2O is 1 m2/s, the regime transition occurs when the vertical crack length becomes 280 m; after the transition, the propagation velocity and average aperture are constant: 21 m/s and 4.8 cm. If the injection rate is lower than a critical value, hydrofracturing cannot be an effective mode for the fluid transport because of the significant fluid loss by infiltration from the crack walls into the surrounding permeable rock. Assuming a fluid-saturated crust with hydrostatic pore fluid pressure, a lower limit can be estimated for the injection rate required to transport H2O by hydrofracturing without significant fluid loss. For example, the lower limit for transport from a depth of 15 km to the Earth's surface is estimated at 0.2 m2/s if the crustal permeability is 10-17 m2. The lower limit decreases with decreasing crustal permeability.

Notes: Abstract Microstructural and chemical analysis of plagioclase in 20 superficially similar amphibolite facies ductile shear zones in metagabbors and amphibolites of the Ivrea Zone in Italy reveals significant differences in An and Ba contents. Plagioclase, which was deformed at P-T conditions lower than those of the wall rocks, occurs in the following four different microstructural situations with different chemical compositions: (i) relatively undeformed porphyroclasts, (ii) dynamically recrystallized grains and subgrains rimming the porphyroclasts, (iii) infill of microcracks cross-cutting the porphyroclasts and (iv) fine-grained recrystallized grains in the matrix of the shear zones. The differences in the An and Ba contents are caused by partial chemical equilibration of plagioclase in the shear zones during and partly after deformation. Changes in An and Ba contents were caused by fluid-assisted grain-boundary migration recrystallization, as well as by solid-state diffusion, while fluid activity was high. The relation between the composition and microstructures of the plagioclase in the shear zones indicates that in the different shear zones, fluids ceased to be active during different stages in the late shear zone deformation history.The interpretation of the variations in composition and microstructures reveals that only grains that developed by grain-boundary migration recrystallization and that are not adjacent to porphyroclasts reflect P-T conditions during the dominant shear-zone deformation.

Notes: Abstract TEM and XRD techniques were used to study crystal growth characteristics of the fabric-forming phyllosilicates which developed in response to low-grade metamorphism and tectonic imbrication in part of the Southern Uplands thrust terrane. Prograde regional metamorphism, ranging from late diagenesis through the anchizone to the epizone, was accompanied by the development of a slaty cleavage which is commonly bedding-parallel. TEM-measured mean thicknesses of white mica and chlorite crystallite populations increase with advancing grade and correlate with XRD-measured crystallinity indices. Analytical TEM data show that prograde changes in composition lead to a net loss of Si, Ca and minor Fe from the fabric-forming phyllosilicates. White micas are paragonite-poor phengites with a mean b lattice parameter of 9.037 Å, and indicate an intermediate pressure series of metamorphism with a field gradient of 〈25° C km-1. Chlorite compositions evolved from diabantite (with intergrown corrensite) to ripidolite over an estimated temperature range of 150–320° C. Field gradient and temperature estimates suggest that crystal growth and fabric development occurred at burial depths ranging from 6 km to at least 13 km in the thrust terrane. During late diagenesis, crystal growth of white mica and chlorite was predominantly a consequence of polytypic and phase transitions, and resulted in similar size distributions which resemble typical Ostwald ripening curves. Under anchizonal and epizonal conditions, white mica grew more rapidly than chlorite because of its greater ability to store strain energy and recover from subgrain development; as a result crystal thickness distributions are not typical of Ostwald ripening. In contrast, chlorite crystals which grew under these conditions developed subgrain boundaries at high strain rates which were only partially recovered at low strain rates; these retained dislocations reduce the crystallite thicknesses detected by TEM and XRD, compared with those of white mica. These differences in strain-induced crystal growth indicate that white mica (illite) and chlorite crystallinity indices are likely to show significant differences where low-grade metamorphism is closely associated with tectonic fabric development.

Notes: Abstract The metamorphic history of the Archaean Superior Province crystalline basement in the Palaeoproterozoic Ungava Orogen attests to the importance of structural and geohydrological controls on a retrograde amphibolite-granulite transition. Two distinct metamorphic suites, separated in age by nearly one billion years, are recognized in extensively exposed tonalitic to dioritic metaplutonic gneisses. The older suite comprises c. 2.7-Ga granulite facies assemblages (orthopyroxene-clinopyroxene-hornblende-plagioclase-ilmenite ± biotite ± quartz) that record moderate pressures (±5 kbar) and high temperatures (±800° C). A younger, c. 1.8-Ga suite resulted from amphibolitization of the granulites and is characterized by regionally extensive amphibolite facies mineral zones that broadly parallel the basal décollement of the overlying Proterozoic Cape Smith Thrust Belt. Deformation/mineral growth relationships in the amphibolitized basement indicate that extensive hydration and re-equilibration of the Archaean granulites occurred during thrust belt deformation. The transition from granulite facies to amphibolite facies assemblages is characterized by the growth of garnet-hornblende-quartz ° Cummingtonite coronas between plagioclase and orthopyroxene-clinopyroxene, as well as titanite coronas on ilmenite. Multi-equilibrium thermobarometry on the coronitic assemblages documents re-equilibration of the granulitic gneiss to 7.7 kbar at 644° C in the south and 9.8 kbar at 700° C in the north. The variably deformed, amphibolite facies domain sandwiched between the coronitic garnet zone and the basal décollement is marked by significant metasomatic changes in major element concentrations within tonalite. These changes are compatible with equilibrium flow of an aqueous-chloride fluid down a temperature gradient. The source of fluids for basement hydration/metasomatism is interpreted to be dehydrating clastic rocks in the overlying thrust belt, with fluid flow probably focused along the basal décollement.

Notes: This paper reviews the events leading to the channelization of the Kissimmee River, the physical, hydrologic, and biological effects of channelization, and the restoration movement. Between 1962 and 1971, in order to provide flood control for central and southern Florida, the 166 km-long meandering Kissimmee River was transformed into a 90 km-long, 10 meter-deep, 100 meter-wide canal. Channelization and transformation of the Kissimmee River system into a series of impoundments resulted in the loss of 12,000–14,000 ha of wetland habitat, eliminated historic water level fluctuations, and greatly modified flow characteristics. As a result, the biological communities of the river and floodplain system (vegetation, invertebrate, fish, wading bird, and waterfowl) were severely damaged. Following completion of the canal, the U.S. Geological Survey released a report documenting the environmental concerns associated with channelization of the river. This action led to the 1971 Governor's Conference on Water Management in South Florida that produced a consensus to request that steps be taken to restore the fish and wildlife resources and habitat of the Kissimmee basin. In 1976, the Florida Legislature passed the Kissimmee River Restoration Act. As a result, three major restoration and planning studies (first federal feasibility study [1978–1985], the Pool B Demonstration Project [1984–1990], and the second federal feasibility study [1990-present] were initiated (1) to evaluate measures and provide recommendations for restoring flood-plain wetlands and improving water quality within the Kissimmee basin, (2) to assess the feasibility of the recommended dechannelization plan, and (3) to evaluate implementation of the dechannelization plan. The recommended plan calls for the backfilling of over 35 km of C-38, recarving of 14 km of river channel, and removal of two water-control structures and associated levees. Restoration of the Kissimmee River ecosystem will result in the reestablishment of 104 km2 of river-floodplain ecosystem, including 70 km of river channel and 11,000 ha of wetland habitat, which is expected to benefit over 320 species of fish and wildlife.

Notes: Two groups of waterbirds have been chosen to assist in measuring the success of restoration of the traditional channel configuration, hydrologic regimes, and floodplain wetlands of the Kissimmee River: waterfowl (Anseriformes) and waders (Ciconiiformes). Waterfowl are dominant, swimming omnivores that use seeds, foliage, and invertebrates; waders are mainly walking predators that eat fish of various sizes. Both can be censused by well-established air and ground techniques, and both can be used to compare post-restoration with channelized or pre-channelization population data (waterfowl) or bird use of channelized versus restored wetlands (waders). In addition to use of population data, species richness and regularity of occurrence should provide a basis for assessing restoration of biological integrity. Conceptual models of avian habitat use for nesting and feeding demonstrate patterns of segregation that will aid assessments for some species. Other species show high overlap in foods and habitats and will require additional measures of response. To understand these patterns and reasons underlying waterbird use, measurements of habitat type, vegetation structure, and food resources will be essential. Integration of these high trophic-level guilds with evaluations of other system components will ensure an ecosystem perspective. Predicted responses to restoration suggest an increase in species richness and number of individuals of many species.

Notes: Survival and height growth of tree seedlings and rooted cuttings introduced into artificially shaded and unshaded plots in a degraded dry forest were measured at intervals for nine months. Ten tree species were selected to represent a range of ecological characteristics of the dry–forest plant community on St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands. Of three propagule types – seeds, seedlings, and rooted cuttings – introduced to field plots, seedlings survived best (52%) over the initial nine-month period. Cuttings of six species rooted successfully in a shadehouse, but only two of these species survived the nine–month field experiment. Seed germination was low, under 11% for eight of ten species tested, and four species did not germinate. Subsequent mortality of seedling recruits was moderately high. Plumeria alba was the only species for which seedling height growth was not significantly greater than cutting height growth. Shading treatment (25% of full sun) significantly increased seedling survivorship (p= 0.03) but suppressed growth slightly for some species. Shading enhanced survival of seedlings produced from broadcast seeds, but not seed germination. Mortality occurred during dry periods, apparently from drought stress. Results suggest (1) that seedling introductions are the preferred propagule type (over seeding or rooted cuttings) for ecological restoration of degraded tropical dry forests, and (2) that some level of shading is required to increase the survivorship of many dry-forest species or to avert complete mortality of some species. This study suggests that early secondary dry forest may be best restored by underplanting within the existing vegetation. Sufficient shading suitable for growth of native dry-forest trees may be attained using a nurse crop of fast-growing leguminous trees.

Notes: We examine the nature of incentive schemes between the principal and the risk-neutral agent in the presence of the agent's limited liability and ex ante action choice. We consider alternative schemes when a simple rental contract is infeasible due to the limited liability of the agent and study the effectiveness of a performance bonus scheme in achieving the first-best outcome. We also discuss some implications of such schemes in real practices.

Notes: Recent theories of vertical integration based on incomplete contracts assume perfect competition on at least one side of the market. As a result, the make-or-buy choice has no redistributive effect and will reflect efficiency considerations only. This paper introduces imperfect competition into an otherwise standard model of a vertical relationship with noncontractable specific investments. We assume that there are a finite number of potential input suppliers with private information about their costs. We first show that a monopoly buyer of such inputs will often prefer to own the seller's assets even though it would be more efficient for the seller's assets not to be so owned. We then show that an increase in the number of potential partners on either side of the market reduces this inclination towards vertical integration. With perfect competition on either side of the market, the make-buy decision will reflect only efficiency considerations.

Notes: Food-related illness in the United States is estimated to affect over six million people per year and cost the economy several billion dollars. These illnesses and costs could be reduced if minimum infectious doses were established and used as the basis of regulations and monitoring. However, standard methodologies for dose-response assessment are not yet formulated for microbial risk assessment. The objective of this study was to compare dose response models for food-borne pathogens and determine which models were most appropriate for a range of pathogens. The statistical models proposed in the literature and chosen for comparison purposes were log-normal,(19) log-logistic,(17) exponential,(7,9,17)ß-Poisson(7,9,18) and Welbull-Gamma.(3) These were fit to four data sets also taken from published literature, Shigella fiexneri,(9,12,13)Shigella dysenteriae,(9,11)Campylobacter jejuni,(15,16) and Salmonella typhosa,(7,14) usingthe method of maximum likelihood. The Weibull-gamma, the only model with three parameters, was also the only model capable of fitting all the data sets examined using the maximum likelihood estimation for comparisons. Infectious doses were also calculated using each model. Within any given data set, the infectious dose estimated to affect one percent of the population ranged from one order of magnitude to as much as nine orders of magnitude, illustrating the differences in extrapolation of the dose response models. More data are needed to compare models and examine extrapolation from high to low doses for food-borne pathogens.

Notes: Environmental managers are increasingly charged with involving the public in the development and modification of policies regarding risks to huma health and the environment. Involving the public in environmental decision making first requires a broad understanding of how and why the public perceives various risks. The Savannah River Stakeholder Study was conducted withthe purpose of investigating individual, economic, and social characteristics of risk perceptions among those living near the Savannah River Nuclear Weapons Site. A number of factors were found to impact risk perceptions among those living near the site. One's estimated proximity to the site and relative river location surfaced as strong determinants of risk perceptions among SRS residents. Additionally, living in a quality neighborhood and demonstrating a willingness to accept health risks for economic gain strongly abated heightened risk perceptions.

Notes: Five atmospheric transport models were evaluated for use in Phase I1 ofthe Historical Public Exposures Studies at the Rocky Flats Plant. Models included a simple straight-line Gaussian plume model (ISCST2), several integrated puff models (RATCHET, TRIAD, and INPUFF2), and a complex terrain mode (TRAC). Evaluations were based on how well model predictions compared with sulfur hexafluoride tracer measurements taken in the vicinity of Rocky Flats in February 1991. Twelve separate tracer experiments were conducted, eac lasting 9 hr and measured at 140 samplers in arcs 8 and 16 km from the release point at Rocky Flats. Four modeling objectives were defined based on the endpoints of the overall study: (1) the unpaired maximum hourly average concentration, (2) paired time-averaged concentration, (3) unpaired time-averaged concentration, and (4) arc-integrated concentration. Performance measures were used to evaluate models and focused on the geometric mean and standard deviation of the predicted-to-observed ratio and the correlation coefficient between predicted and observed concentrations. No one model consistently outperformed the others in all modeling objectives and performance measures. About 75% of the maximum hourly concentration predictions were within a factor of 5 of the observations. About 64% of the paired and 80% of the unpaired time-averaged model predictions were within a factor of 5 of theobservations. The overall performance of the RATCHET model was somewhat better than the other models. All models appeared to experience difficulty defining plume trajectories, which was attributed to the influence of multilayered flow initiated by terrain complexities and the diurnal flow patterns characteristic of the Colorado Front Range.

Notes: Calculation of accident dose-risk estimates with the RADTRAN code requires input data describing the population likely to be affected by the plumeof radioactive material (RAM) released in a hypothetical transportation accident. In the existing model, population densities within 1/2 mile (0.8 km)of the route centerline are tabulated in three ranges (Rural, Suburban, andUrban). These population densities may be of questionable validity since the plume in the RADTRAN analysis is assumed to extend out to 120 km from thehypothetical accident site. We present a GIs-based population model which accounts for the actual distribution of population under a potential plume, and compare accident-risk estimates based on the resulting population densities with those based on the existing model. Results for individual points along a route differ greatly, but the cumulative accident risks for a sample route of a few hundred kilometers are found to be comparable, if not identical. We conclude, therefore, that for estimation of aggregate accident risks over typical routes of several hundred kilometers, the existing, simpler RADTRAN model is sufficiently detailed and accurate.

Notes: This paper discusses a number of the key challenges to the acceptance and aplication of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Those challenges include:(a) the extensive reliance on subjective judgment in PRA, requiring the development of guidance for the use of PRA in risk-informed regulation, and possibly the development of “robust” or “reference” prior distributions to minimize the reliance on judgment; and (b) the treatment of human perfor-mance in PRA, including not only human errorperse but also management and organizational factors more broadly. All of these areas are seen as presentinginteresting research challenges at the interface between engineering and other disciplines.

Notes: Rational decision making requires that the total uncertainty about a variate of interest (a predictand) be quantified in terms of a probability distribution, conditional on all available information and knowledge. Supposethe state-of-knowledge is embodied in a deterministic model, which is imperfect and outputs only an estimate of the predictand. Fundamentals are presented of two Bayesian methods for producing a probabilistic forecast via anydeterministic model. The Bayesian Processor of Forecast (BPF) quantifies the total uncertainty in terms of a posterior distribution, conditional on model output. The Bayesian Forecasting System (BFS) decomposes the total uncertainty into input uncertainty and model uncertainty, which are characterized independently and then integrated into a predictive distribution. The BFS is compared with Monte Carlo simulation and “ensemble forecasting” technique, none of which can alone produce a probabilistic forecast that quantifies the total uncertainty, but each can serve as a component of the BFS.

Notes: This article describes an application of a method for assessing risks associated with the introduction of an organism into a new environment. The test organism was a binucleate Rhizoctonia fungal isolate that has potential for commercial development as a biological control agent for damping-off diseases in bedding plants. A test sample of host plant species was selected using the centrifugal phylogenetic host range principles, but with an emphasis on economic species. The effect of the fungus on the plant was measured for each species and expressed on a logarithmic scale. The effects on weights of shoots and roots per container were not normally distributed, nor were the effects on the number of plants standing (those which survived). Statements about the effect on the number standing and the shoot weight per container involved using the observed (empirical) distribution. This is illustrated with an example. Problems were encountered in defining the population of species at risk, and in deciding how this population should be formally sampled. The limitations of the method are discussed.

Notes: The heuristic-systematic information processing model (HSM) holds that individuals will use one or both of these modes of information processing when attempting to evaluate information in order to arrive at a judgment. Systematic processing is defined by effortful scrutiny and comparison of information, whereas heuristic processing is defined by the use of cues to amve more easily at a judgment. Antecedents to the two processing modes include information sufficiency, motivation, and self-efficacy. Structural equation modeling is used to examine competing configuration of this model and to evaluate the model as appropriate for predicting risk judgment. The model also is evaluated across three groups that vary with respect to their level of concern. These analyses are executed within a case study involving an epidemiological investigation of a suspected cancer cluster. The analysis confirms the HSM's theoretically proposed structure and shows it to be a useful vehicle for evaluating risk judgment. In the overall analysis, antecedent variables generally function as specified by theory. Systematic processing is predicted by greater motivation. Heuristic processing is predicted by information sufficiency. Self-efficacy is a significant predictor of both processing modes. And heuristic processing is shown to be associated with judgment of less risk. However, when the analysis is contrasted across three groups (those concerned about cancer, not concerned and uncertain) it is shown that the model is significantly more robust for the uncertain group. This finding may have implications for the use of the HSM in risk research specifically, and in field research generally.

Notes: South Carolina has issued fish consumption advisories for the Savannah River based on mercury and radionuclide levels. We examine differences in fishing rates and fish consumption of 258 people interviewed while fishing along the Savannah River, as a function of age, education, ethnicity, employment history, and income, and test the assumption that the average consumption of fish is less than the recreational value of 19 kg/year assumed by risk assessors. Ethnicity and education contributed significantly to explaining variations in number of fish meals per month, serving size, and total quantity of fish consumed per year. Blacks fished more often, ate more fish meals of slightly larger serving sizes, and consumed more fish per year than did Whites. Although education and income were correlated, education contributed most significantly to behavior; people who did not graduate from high school ate fish more often, ate more fish per year, and ate more whole fish than people who graduated from high school. Computing consumption of fish for each person individually indicates that (1) people who eat fish more often also eat larger portions, (2) a substantial number of people consume more than the amount of fish used to compute risk to recreational fishermen, (3) some people consume more than the subsistence level default assumption (50 kglyear) and (4) Blacks consume more fish per year than Whites, putting them at greater risk from contaminants in fish. Overall, ethnicity, age, and education contributed to variations in fishing behavior and consumption.

Notes: The association between daily fluctuations in ambient particulate matter and daily variations in nonaccidental mortality have been extensively investigated. Although it is now widely recognized that such an association exists, the form of the concentration-response model is still in question. Linear, no threshold and linear threshold models have been most commonly examined. In this paper we considered methods to detect and estimate threshold concentrations using time series data of daily mortality rates and air pollution concentrations. Because exposure is measured with error, we also considered the influence of measurement error in distinguishing between these two completing model specifications. The methods were illustrated on a 15-year daily time series of nonaccidental mortality and particulate air pollution data in Toronto, Canada. Nonparametric smoothed representations of the association between mortality and air pollution were adequate to graphically distinguish between these two forms. Weighted nonlinear regression methods for relative risk models were adequate to give nearly unbiased estimates of threshold concentrations even under conditions of extreme exposure measurement error. The uncertainty in the threshold estimates increased with the degree of exposure error. Regression models incorporating threshold concentrations could be clearly distinguished from linear relative risk models in the presence of exposure measurement error. The assumption of a linear model given that a threshold model was the correct form usually resulted in overestimates in the number of averted premature deaths, except for low threshold concentrations and large measurement error.

Notes: Facility-specific information on pollution was obtained for 36 coke plants and 46 oil refineries in the United States and matched with information on populations surrounding these 82 facilities. These data were analyzed to determine whether environmental inequities were present, whether they were more economic or racial in nature, and whether the racial composition of nearby communities has changed significantly since plants began operations. The Census tracts near coke plants have a disproportionate share of poor and nonwhite residents. Multivariate analyses suggest that existing inequities are primarily economic in nature. The findings for oil refineries are not strongly supportive of the environmental inequity hypothesis. Rank ordering of facilities by race, poverty, and pollution produces limited (although not consistent) evidence that the more risky facilities tend to be operating in communities with above-median proportions of nonwhite residents (near coke plants) and Hispanic residents (near oil refineries). Over time, the racial makeup of many communities near facilities has changed significantly, particularly in the case of coke plants sited in the early 1900s. Further risk-oriented studies of multiple manufacturing facilities in various industrial sectors of the economy are recommended.

Notes: We investigated the way results of human health risk assessments are used, and the theory used to describe those methods, sometimes called the “NAS paradigm.” Contrary to a key tenet of that theory, current methods have strictly limited utility. The characterizations now considered standard, Safety Indices such as “Acceptable Daily Intake,”“Reference Dose,” and so on, usefully inform only decisions that require a choice between two policy alternatives (e.g., approve a food additive or not), decided solely on the basis of a finding of safety. Riskis characterized as the quotient of one of these Safety Indices divided by an estimate of exposure: a quotient greater than one implies that the situation may be considered safe. Such decisions are very widespread, both in the U. S. federal government and elsewhere. No current method is universal; different policies lead to different practices, for example, in California's “Proposition 65,” where statutory provisions specify some practices. Further, an important kind of human health risk assessment is not recognized by this theory: this kind characterizes risk as likelihood of harm, given estimates of exposure consequent to various decision choices. Likelihood estimates are necessary whenever decision makers have many possible decision choices and must weigh more than two societal values, such as in EPA's implementation of “conventional air pollutants.” These estimates can not be derived using current methods; different methods are needed. Our analysis suggests changes needed in both the theory and practice of human health risk assessment, and how what is done is depicted.

Notes: The prominent role of animal bioassay evidence in environmental regulatory decisions compels a careful characterization of extrapolation uncertainties. In noncancer risk assessment, uncertainty factors are incorporated to account for each of several extrapolations required to convert a bioassay outcome into a putative subthreshold dose for humans. Measures of relative toxicity taken between different dosing regimens, different endpoints, or different species serve as a reference for establishing the uncertainty factors. Ratios of no observed adverse effect levels (NOAELs) have been used for this purpose; statistical summaries of such ratios across sets of chemicals are widely used to guide the setting of uncertainty factors. Given the poor statistical properties of NOAELs, the informativeness of these summary statistics is open to question. To evaluate this, we develop an approach to “calibrate” the ability of NOAEL ratios to reveal true properties of a specified distribution for relative toxicity. A priority of this analysis is to account for dependencies of NOAEL ratios on experimental design and other exogenous factors. Our analysis of NOAEL ratio summary statistics finds (1) that such dependencies are complex and produce pronounced systematic errors and (2) that sampling error associated with typical sample sizes (50 chemicals) is nonnegligible. These uncertainties strongly suggest that NOAEL ratio summary statistics cannot be taken at face value; conclusions based on such ratios reported in well over a dozen published papers should be reconsidered.

Notes: We compare the regulatory implications of applying the traditional (linearized) and exact two-stage dose-response models to animal carcinogenic data. We analyze dose-response data from six studies, representing five different substances, and we determine the “goodness- of-fit” of each model as well as the 95% confidence lower limit ofthe dose corresponding to a target excess risk of 10-5 (the target risk doseTRD). For the two concave datasets, we find that the exact model gives a substantially better fit to the data than the traditional model, and that the exact model gives aTRD that is an order of magnitude lower than that given by the traditional model. In the other cases, the exact model gives a fit equivalent to or better than the traditional model. We also show that although the exact two-stage model may exhibit dose-response concavity at moderate dose levels, it is always linear or sublinear, and never supralinear, in the low-dose limit. Because regulatory concern is almost always confined to the low-dose region extrapolation, supralinear behavior seems not to be of regulatory concern in the exact two-stage model. Finally, we find that when performing this low-dose extrapolation in cases of dose-response concavity, extrapolating the model fit leads to a more conservative TRD than taking a linear extrapolation from 10% excess risk. We conclude with a set of recommendations.

Notes: The characterization and treatment of uncertainty poses special challenges when modeling indeterminate or complex coupled systems such as those involved in the interactions between human activity, climate and the ecosystem. Uncertainty about model structure may become as, or more important than, uncertainty about parameter values. When uncertainty grows so large that prediction or optimization no longer makes sense, it may still be possible to use the model as a “behavioral test bed” to examine the relative robustness of alternative observational and behavioral strategies. When modelsmust be run into portions of their phase space that are not well understood, different submodels may become unreliable at different rates. A common example involves running a time stepped model far into the future. Several strategies can be used to deal with such situations. The probability of model failure can be reported as a function of time. Possible alternative “surprises” can be assigned probabilities, modeled separately, and combined. Finally, through the use of subjective judgments, one may be able to combine, and over time shift between models, moving from more detailed to progressively simpler order-of-magnitude models, and perhaps ultimately, on to simple bounding analysis.

Notes: In any model the values of estimates for various parameters are obtained from different sources each with its own level of uncertainty. When the probability distributions of the estimates are obtained as opposed to point values only, the measurement uncertainties in the parameter estimates may be addressed. However, the sources used for obtaining the data and the models used to select appropriate distributions are of differing degrees of uncertainty. A hierarchy of different sources of uncertainty based upon one's ability to validate data and models empirically is presented. When model parameters are aggregated with different levels of the hierarchy represented, this implies distortion or degradation in the utility and validity of the models used. Means to identify and deal with such heterogeneous data sourcesare explored, and a number of approaches to addressing this problem is presented. One approach, using Range/confidence Estimates coupled with an Information Value Analysis Process, is presented as an example.

Notes: Variability arises due to differences in the value of a quantity among different members of a population. Uncertainty arises due to lack of knowledge regarding the true value of a quantity for a given member of a population. We describe and evaluate two methods for quantifying both variability and uncertainty. These methods, bootstrapsimulation and a likelihood-based method, are applied to three datasets. The datasetsinclude a synthetic sample of 19 values from a Lognormal distribution, a sample of nine values obtained from measurements of the PCB concentration in leafy produce, and asample of five values for the partitioning of chromium in the flue gas desulfurization system of coal-fired power plants. For each of these datasets, we employ the two methods to characterize uncertainty in the arithmetic mean and standard deviation, cumulative distribution functions based upon fitted parametric distributions, the 95th percentile of variability, and the 63rd percentile of uncertainty for the 81st percentile of variability. The latter is intended to show that it is possible to describe anypoint within the uncertain frequency distribution by specifying an uncertainty percentile and a Variability percentile. Using the bootstrap method, we compare results based upon use of the method of matching moments and the method of maximum likelihood for fitting distributions to data. Our results indicate that with only 5-19 data pointsas in the datasets we have evaluated, there is substantial uncertainty based upon random sampling error. Both the boostrap and likelihood-based approaches yield comparable uncertainty estimates in most cases.

Notes: Abstract We have deduced the steady-state lithospheric geotherm at c. 1 Ga in the south Indian shield area using the available data on the concentration of radioactive elements, and the P-T conditions of Proterozoic mantle xenoliths in the south Indian kimberlites as constraints. The geotherm was adjusted back to 2.5 Ga by keeping the surface temperature constant and calculating the temperature change at the top of convecting upper mantle. The reduced or mantle heat flux, which was treated as an adjustable parameter, was 20.9–21.3 mW/m2 at 1–2.5 Ga. Comparison of the calculated steady-state geotherm with the available P-T data of the Archaean (c. 2.5 Ga) charnockites and granulites from southern India suggests that the granulite facies metamorphism in this region had resulted from a major thermal perturbation, which was c. 400° C at 25 km.Seismic tomographic and gravity data essentially preclude any significant magma underplating of the granulitic crust in southern India. Previous workers have suggested that the formation of charnockites in this region was associated with copious CO2 influx from a deep-seated source, possibly the mantle. In this work, we have evaluated both the transient and steady-state thermal effects of the heat convected by CO2 outgassing from upper mantle. It is shown that the thermobarometric array of charnockites and granulites can be produced by the convective perturbation of the steady-state geotherm, and that a flux of CO2 of ±90 mol/m2 yr (corresponding to Darcy velocity of ±0.30 cm/yr) for a period of ±30 Ma was needed to produce the required perturbation. This is c. 150 times the average CO2 flux through the tectonically active area of the Earth's crust at the present time. There is, however, an uncertainty of a factor of 3 in this value.Seismic tomographic and gravity data independently suggest thickening of the crust beneath the granulite terrane compared with the adjacent Dharwar craton. This suggests thermal perturbation due to overthrusting as a major potential cause for the granulite facies metamorphism in south India. Overthrusting of a 30–35-km-thick thrust block was needed to produce the required thermal effect. The estimated thickness of the original crust from geobarometric and seismic tomographic data south of the orthopyroxene isograd or ‘transition zone’is compatible with the emplacement of a thrust block of this magnitude. However, the latter fails to match the estimated pre-uplift crustal thickness at the transition zone, if it is assumed that the crust has not thinned by non-erosional processes since the Archaean. Thus, we propose a combination of overthrusting and CO2 fluxing from a deep-seated source as the cause for the formation of charnockites in this zone. The required focusing of CO2 in this case is c. 40% of that estimated in the model where CO2 fluxing was considered to be the sole reason for thermal perturbation. This combined thrusting—CO2 fluxing model also helps explain the development of patchy charnockites in the transition zone from amphibolite facies rocks.

Notes: Abstract End-member, continuous and degenerate reactions are derived for the multisystem with the six components Na2O, CaO, (Mg/Fe)O, Al2O3, SiO2, H2O among the phases plagioclasess, garnetss, amphiboless, cpx, opx, olivine, spinel, quartz and an aqueous fluid. The chemography of this system is degenerate due to the co-linearity 2Opx = Ol + Qtz. This co-linearity has its implications both on reaction space and phase equilibria.From a total of 28 reaction systems, reaction space is derived for nine subsystems (phases in parentheses are absent): Case A1: (Cpx,Ol) (Cpx,Opx) and (Cpx,Qtz), Case A2: (Spl,Ol) (Spl,Opx) and (Spl,Qtz), Case B: (Ol,Opx) (Ol,Qtz) and (Opx,Qtz).In the absence of either cpx or spl (case A), three reactions form an invariant point, either [Cpx] or [Spl], where the co-linear phases olivine, opx and quartz coexist on the transformation line 2Opx = Ol + Qtz. Changing mineral compositions force invariant points to move along the line with the different reaction curves changing their relative position according to Schreinemakers’rules. Zero contours, i.e. the location where (a) phase(s) disappear(s) in reaction space correspond to singular points in phase diagrams. Two types are distinguished; singular points of indispensable and of substitutable phases. In the first case the phase disappears from the entire bundle while in the second it disappears from a single reaction. In the specific case where the substitutable phases are also the co-linear ones, two of the three co-linear phases disappear simultaneously. Two of the three reaction curves coincide.In the system including Cpx and Spl (Case B) three reactions, (Ol,Opx) (Ol,Qtz) and (Opx,Qtz), oppose three invariant points, [Ol], [Opx] and [Qtz]. Invariant points no longer move along the line 2Opx = Ol + Qtz. The coincidence of the zero contours of all three co-linear phases in reaction space-the result of the chemographic degeneracy-causes the respective singular points to coincide in the phase diagrams. This is the location where curves must be rearranged in a bundle to conform Schreinemakers’rules.The reaction Grs1Prp2= 2 Ol + An is fourth order degenerate and part of all nine subsystems (cases A and B). It can be used to relate the different phase diagrams to one another.

Notes: Abstract We report structural and metamorphic data from a c. 25-km transect across the eastern Grenville Front Tectonic Zone (GFTZ) to the Britt domain at the northern end of Georgian Bay near Key Harbour, Ontario. Constrasting Grenvillian structural and fabric elements characterize the eastern GFTZ, northern Britt domain and a narrow Transition Zone between them.Moderately to steeply dipping foliations with strong down-dip lineations in all three divisions appear to be associated with NW-directed thrusting. In the Transition Zone and northern Britt domain, early S = L fabrics with steep lineations are overprinted by younger structures (S 〉 L) with shallow, SE-SSE-plunging lineations in which sparse, dominantly (but not exclusively) normal-sense kinematic indicators are recognized. Pressure and temperature estimates from Grenvillian metamorphic assemblages in metadi-abase indicate that conditions of P ± 12 kbar and T c 800° C were achieved before or during the thrust-related deformation, with P-T-t paths that indicate near-isothermal decompression to P c. 4 kbar and T c. 700° C. Correlation of fabric elements with points on the P-T-t paths suggests that exhumation occurred during two stages, the first associated with thrusting (≥1035 Ma) and the second with extension and thrusting (pre-1003 Ma).The GFTZ contains steeply to moderately dipping, thrust-related fabrics and lacks shallow, extensional structures; the latest episode of thrusting in the GFTZ is inferred to have taken place at 990-980 Ma. The data are interpreted in terms of a tectonic model involving two stages of propagation of the Grenville orogen towards its foreland (≥1035 Ma and ≥980 Ma), with an intervening period of extension, although the tectonic regime probably remained compressional on the scale of the orogen.

Notes: Abstract 40Ar/39Ar data (on hornblende, muscovite and K-feldspar) are presented for samples from the western Grenville Province taken along a 140-km traverse from the Grenville Front into the Britt domain. Our interpretation is based on 28 new analyses, synthesized with 20 previously reported from the traverse area.In regions where comparisons are possible, muscovite and (large domain) K-feldspar apparent ages appear similar (at c. 920–930 Ma), but throughout the traverse, these are c. 60–70 Myr younger than the hornblende ages. The inferred cooling rate over the c. 350–500°C temperature range, c.2°C Myr-1, is appropriate for exhumation controlled by post-orogenic erosional unroofing. At the Grenville Front Tectonic Zone (GFTZ) — Britt domain boundary there is a c. 25-Myr offset in both hornblende and muscovite/K-feldspar ages. We interpret the lower ages in the Britt domain to reflect variations in crustal thickness and geothermal gradient between the flank and interior of a thick orogen.The argon data from the GFTZ are interpreted in the context of an asymmetric crustal-scale antiformal structure developed during a late episode of convergence. Hornblende from rocks on either side of the core of the antiform has an apparent age of c. 990 Ma, our estimate of the age of the compressional event. In the west, we infer that these date the short-lived thermal event associated with the development of the crustal-scale antiform previously postulated. In the east, the ages reflect the cooling of material brought toward the surface in the flank of the antiform. Hornblendes from the antiform core appear to contain excess radiogenic argon. We suggest that this was the ambient argon in rocks transported from depth that was subsequently trapped when the rocks cooled rapidly.

Notes: Abstract Three generations of mylonites discovered in the northern Prince Charles Mountains (nPCM) are associated with episodes of crustal thickening and thinning. First-generation mylonites (MY1) are shallow thrusts which pre-date both folding and peak metamorphic conditions, and formed during early crustal thickening. Second-generation mylonites (MY2) are significant subvertical normal faults that formed at conditions of c. 5 kbar and 700° C, and throughout the nPCM consistently display NW-block uplift. It is argued that MY2 uplift was rapid in the north-west, produced exhumation of approximately 6–7 km, and caused re-equilibration of most nPCM assemblages at lower pressures. It is suggested that features of this terrane may be reconciled with a tectonic model involving simultaneous crustal thickening and lithospheric thinning; MY2 uplift may reflect isostatically induced uplift. In contrast, the adjacent east Lambert Glacier Region (eLGR) was unaffected by MY2 uplift and remained at lower crustal levels. P-T trajectories across this oblique terrane thus reflect a gradual transition in uplift rates: nPCM paths preserve mostly cooling after partial MY2 exhumation, while those in the eLGR are dominated by slower uplift which facilitated the retrograde growth of coronas and symplectites at amphibolite facies conditions. Amphibolite facies third-generation mylonites, MY3, post-date the preserved P-T segments and are low-angle normal faults which indicate consistent easterly transport across the entire terrane. It is proposed that they are related to tectonic collapse.

Notes: Abstract Five whole-rock 40Ar/39Ar plateau ages from low-grade sectors of the Sambagawa belt (Besshi nappe complex) range between 87 and 97 Ma. Two whole-rock phyllite samples from the Mikabu greenstone belt record well-defined 40Ar/39Ar plateau ages of 96 and 98 Ma. Together these ages suggest that a high-pressure metamorphism occurred in both the Sambagawa and Mikabu belts at c. 90–100 Ma. The northern Chichibu sub-belt may consist of several distinct geochronological units because metamorphic ages increase systematically from north (c. 110 Ma) to south (c. 215 Ma). The northern Chichibu sub-belt is correlated with the Kuma nappe complex (Sambagawa belt). Two whole-rock phyllite samples from the Kurosegawa terrane display markedly older metamorphic ages than either the Sambagawa or the Chichibu belts.Accretion of Sambagawa-Chichibu protoliths began prior to the middle Jurrasic. Depositional ages decrease from middle Jurassic (Kuma-Chichibu nappe complex) to c. 100 Ma (Oboke nappe complex) toward lower tectonostratigraphic units. The ages of metamorphic culmination also decrease from upper to lower tectonostratigraphic units. The Kurosegawa belt and the geological units to the south belong to distinctly different terrances than the Sambagawa-Chichibu belts. These have been juxtaposed as a result of transcurrent faulting during the Cretaceous.

Notes: Abstract 40Ar/39Ar data collected from hornblende, muscovite, biotite and K-feldspar constrain the P-T-t history of the Cordillera Darwin metamorphic complex, Tierra del Fuego, Chile. These data show two periods of rapid cooling, the first between c. 500 and c. 325° C at rates ≥25° C Ma-1, and the second between c. 250 and c. 200°C. For high-T cooling, 40Ar/39Ar ages are spatially disparate and depend on metamorphic grade: rocks that record deeper and hotter peak metamorphic conditions have younger 40Ar/39Ar ages. Sillimanite- and kyanite-grade rocks in the south-central part of the complex cooled latest: 40Ar/39Ar Hbl = 73–77 Ma, Ms = 67–70 Ma, Bt = 68 Ma, and oldest Kfs = 65 Ma. Thermobarometry and P-T path studies of these rocks indicate that maximum burial of 26–30 km at 575–625° C may have been followed by as much as 10 km of exhumation with heating of 25–50° C. Staurolite-grade rocks have intermediate 40Ar/39Ar ages: Hbl = 84–86 Ma, Ms = 71 Ma, Bt = 72–75 Ma, and oldest Kfs = 80 Ma. Thermobarometry on these rocks indicates maximum burial of 19–26 km at temperatures of 550–580° C. Garnet-grade rocks have the oldest ages: Ms = 72 Ma and oldest Kfs = 91 Ma; peak P-T conditions were 525–550° C and 5–7 kbar. Regional metamorphic temperatures for greenschist facies rocks south of the Beagle Channel did not exceed c. 300–325° C from 110 Ma to the present, although the rocks are only 2 km from kyanite-bearing rocks to the north.One-dimensional thermal models allow limits to be placed on exhumation rates. Assuming a stable geothermal gradient of 20–25° C km-1, the maximum exhumation rate for the St-grade rocks is c. 2.5 mm yr-1, whereas the minimum exhumation rate for the Ky + Sil-grade rocks is c. 1.0 mm yr-1. Uniform exhumation rates cannot explain the disparity in cooling histories for rocks at different grades, and so early differential exhumation is inferred to have occurred. Petrological and geochronological comparisons with other metamorphic complexes suggest that single exhumation events typically remove less than c. 20 km of overburden. This behaviour can be explained in terms of a continental deformation model in which brittle extensional faults in the upper crust are rooted to shallowly dipping ductile shear zones or regions of homogeneous thinning at mid- to deep-crustal levels. The P-T-t data from Cordillera Darwin (1) are best explained by a ‘wedge extrusion’model, in which extensional exhumation in the southern rear of the complex was coeval with thrusting in the north along the margin of the complex and into the Magallanes sedimentary basin, (2) suggest that differential exhumation occurred initially, with St-grade rocks exhuming faster than Ky + Sil-grade rocks, and (3) show variations in cooling rate through time that correlate both with local deformation events and with changes in plate motions and interactions.