ALBERT

Notes: Books reviewed in this article: Semiarid Lands and Deserts: Soil Resources and Reclamation J. Skujins, editor

Notes: Several landscape restoration alternatives were evaluated in the Gorecht area, a cultivated river plain in the northern part of the Netherlands. A landscape analysis was performed to investigate the hydrological functioning of this area. Groundwater composition in the area was assessed by using distribution patterns of indicative plant species. Results proved to be consistent with an interpolation of actual data of the groundwater composition. Groundwater flow was simulated with hydrological models to explain the observed patterns in water chemistry. It appeared that upwelling Ca-rich groundwater is now absent in the area, contrary to the past situation. Because a constant supply of Ca-rich water is an essential condition for mesotraphent fen vegetation, we concluded that under the present conditions the regeneration prospects for these vegetation types are poor. We suggest that the plan to regenerate groundwater-fed fens be abandoned for a plan to create surface-water-fed marshes.

Notes: Restoration of an abandoned 16-ha Nike missile base site located on a former wetland in the lower Detroit River (Michigan, U.S.A.) was investigated with an emphasis on wetland restoration. The site included a 2.7-ha abandoned missile base, a 1.3-ha lake, 10.4 ha of emergent and submersed wetlands, and 1.8 ha of uplands. Aquatic beds in the shallow bay connected to the river supported floating leaved and submersed aquatics including Nymphaea tiiberosa, Vallisneria antericana, Elodea canadensis, and Heteranthera dubia, with mats of green, filamentous algae. A 10-ha diked wetland adjacent to the site was dominated by Typha spp., Salix spp., Nymphaea tuberosa, Myriophyllum spicatum, Elodea canadensis, Chara sp., and Juncus effusus. Restoration objectives included a nature preserve, an outdoor recreation area, an experimental wetland complex, and an environmental education center. Ten alternative designs were suggested, including four with wetlands open to the bay, three with diked wetlands, and the rest involving island construction, a reconstructed upland site, or a wetland research facility. Alternatives were evaluated for their contribution to local ecology, research, education and wildlife, ease of maintenance, and probability of success. Construction of a wetland resembling conditions before construction of the base was recommended for its low maintenance and opportunity for research on non diked wetland design and construction in protected bays in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Recreational and educational opportunities were also recommended as part of the site restoration.

Notes: When it was legal, resale price maintenance (RPM) was commonly observed on items such as aspirin, pens, pencils, toothpaste, soap, shaving cream, and milk. In providing a theory that is based on compensating retailers for their opportunity cost of shelf space, and that does not hinge on the existence of externalities in nonprice competition, this article explains why a manufacturer might impose RPM on these and many other products. By contrast, the use of RPM on food, grocery, and drug store items is not easily explained by standard theories such as free riding on presale services and quality certification by high-priced retailers.〈blockFixed type="quotation"〉The typical supermarket has room for fewer than 25,000 products. Yet there are some 100,000 available, and between 10,000 and 25,000 items aye introduced each year./〉

Notes: Why does the cost of organizing particular activities differ across competitors? This article explores in detail the organization of Nucor, a steel minimill that has sustained a significant cost advantage over its competitors. Nucor's past success highlights the complementarities among organizational policies and competitive advantage as well as barriers to the imitation of apparently superior organizational arrangements. The case study also suggests avenues for additional empirical and theoretical research.

Notes: What accounts for the diversity and limited concentration that has long characterized the organization of the advertising agency industry? This question is addressed by treating an advertising agency as a multiproduct firm. The firm's product line or service mix is defined in terms of the set of different media categories where an agency places the advertising messages that it creates on behalf of its clients. Evidence is presented indicating that the structure of demand and costs in the advertising agency industry conforms to the conditions that MacDonald and Slivinski showed were required for an industry to sustain an equilibrium with diversified firms.Building on this framework, we formulate a set of three hypotheses relating to the realization of product-specific scale and scope economies. The first two hypotheses posit that given low fixed costs and minimal entry barriers, both media-specific scale and scope economies are available and can be exploited by relatively small-size agencies. The third hypothesis suggests that large agencies may experience diseconomies of scope as a consequence of excessive diversification induced by two pervasive industry institutional phenomena: (1) “bundling” of agency services to match client demand for a mix of media advertising, and (2) “conflict policy,” which prohibits an agency from serving competing accounts and operates as a mobility constraint.Utilizing a multiproduct cost function, we estimate media-specific scale and scope economies for a cross section of 401 U.S. agencies in 1987. The results obtained support the set of three hypotheses outlined above. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings for the restructuring currently underway in this industry.

Notes: Recent advances in the theoretical literature have greatly expanded our understanding of the forces that shape the competitive dynamics of research and development, but a paucity of sufficiently detailed empirical data has left these insights relatively untested. We draw on unusually detailed qualitative and quantitative infernal data provided at the research program level by 10 major pharmaceutical firms to explore the usefulness of the modern literature as a source of insight into the dynamics of competition in ethical drug discovery.Our analysis focuses on one particularly compelling aspect of the literature: the suggestion that in “winner take all situations,” competition in R&D becomes a Prisoner's Dilemma, leading to overinvestment in research. Without adequate measures of the social return to innovation, we can say nothing about whether there is “too much” or “too little” research undertaken by the industry, but our results do not support the suggestion that R&D investment in drug discovery is driven by the “tit-for-tat” or simple reaction function models hinted at by the institutional literature. First, R&D investment is only weakly correlated across firms once common responses to exogenous shocks are accounted far, and second, rivals' R&D results are positively correlated with own research productivity, which we interpret as evidence for extensive R&D spillovers rather than the depletion externality implied by “winner take all” models.These results are not, of themselves, sufficient to reject the hypothesis that investment behavior in the industry is driven by strategic considerations since there is theoretical support for a wide variety of observable behavior as equilibrium outcomes of strategic interaction. Nonetheless, they suggest that the more extreme forms of rent dissipation identified in the literature are probably poor characterizations of the reality of competition in pharmaceuticals. Our results point both to the need to develop theories that incorporate richer models of possible payoff structures, adjustment costs, and firm heterogeneity and to the need to collect empirical data that is comprehensive enough to enable one to test them.

Notes: Empirical work has failed to keep pace with recent advances in transaction cost theory and the theory of contract. The first econometric analysis of its kind is reported by using a new data set of small subcuntractors making specific inputs for customers in the engineering industry. The use of formal contracts is found to be strongly associated with specific investment and other variables measuring technological complexity and vulnerability to potential opportunism by customers. Furthermore, despite typically long-term relationships, over half of subcontractors avoid making efficient, specific investments. Overall, we find strong support for the transaction cost theory of contracts.

Notes: We examine the relationship between chief executive officer (CEO) compensation and acquisition activity subsequent to corporate restructurings in a sample of 152 firms created by a voluntary corporate spin-off. We also investigate the linkage between these relationships and the stock market reaction to the initial restructuring announcements. Surprisingly, CEO wealth in the form of stock and options is strongly related to friendly and hostile acquisition activity, respectively. Moreover, the stock market appears to anticipate this subsequent acquisition activity. These results ask us to rethink our understanding of the motivational properties of equity ownership and the stock market's reaction to voluntary corporate spin-off announcements.

Notes: This paper studies the firm's choice between implicit and explicit contracts as alternative methods of assuring product quality. The relationship between these two contractual forms is studied using a dynamic model with imperfect monitoring and team moral hazard where both the firm and the consumer take unobservable actions that affect product performance. The firm chooses the contractual arrangement that maximizes expected profit. Identified are conditions on the primitive attributes of the transactions and on the firm's environment that can help explain why firms might decide to use explicit contracting, implicit contracting, or a combination of the two. I also show that there are conditions under which the introduction of reputation causes explicit contracts to be more uniform and less sensitive to the details of the transaction than implied by static models.

Notes: We study the firm's incentives to engage in research for pollution-control technologies and to adopt new technologies that if discovers or that are discovered by other firms. Licensing of discoveries is assumed possible. We also study the regulator's problem in designing optimal environmental regulations that both control pollution and provide incentives for research. Technology adoption standards are part of the optimal regulation. Another finding is that making the adoption standard stricter reduces research.

Notes: We investigate the role of price advertising in a market where consumers are imperfectly informed about prices. We consider a monopolist whose demand depends on price and advertising expenditure. This demand function is derived from optimizing behavior of consumers. Uninformed consumers may pay a cost to visit the seller and obtain price information. Advertising enables the monopolist to increase the number of informed consumers. In equilibrium the uninformed consumers form rational price expectations, and the seller necessarily adopts a random pricing and advertising strategy.

Notes: A model of advertising is presented in which consumption experience is an imperfect indicator of product quality. In equilibrium, neither price nor advertising signal the quality of newly introduced goods. Advertising of established products can be a signal of quality, but if it is, it must be an imperfect signal leaving residual uncertainty that influences consumers’ repurchase decision. A set of observable implications follow.

Notes: A model of procedural decision making in firms is combined with an oligopoly model to study the effect of limited managerial cognition on firm flexibility. It is argued that a firm may vary its flexibility, and, hence, that there exists a trade-off between decision-making costs and costs due to imperfect adjustment to the environment. The main conclusions are the following: (1) The level of flexibility chosen by firms tends to be too low, from a social welfare point of view. (2) Entry reduces firm flexibility. Aggregated flexibility in the market may, however, increase in which case consumers are unambiguously better off. (3) Integration of isolated markets increases firm flexibility and consumer welfare.

Notes: This paper studies a model in which two payers contract with one hospital. True costs per patient are not a possible basis for payment, and contracts can only be written on the basis of allocated cost. Payers choose a contract that is fully prospective or fully based on cost allocation, or a payment scheme that would give some weight to each of these two. We characterize the payers'equilibrium contracts arid show how in equilibrium hospital input decisions are distorted by the payers’ incentives to engage in cost shifting. Two cost-shifting incentives work in opposite directions, and equilibrium can be characterized by too little or too much care relative to the socially efficient level.

Notes: This paper compares the cost and quality incentive effects of cost reimbursement and prospective payment systems in the health industry. When a provider cannot refuse patients who require high treatment costs or discriminate patients by qualities, optimally designed prospective payments can implement the efficient quality and cost reduction efforts, but cost reimbursement cannot induce any cost incentive. When the provider can refuse expensive patients, implementation of the first best requires a piecewise linear reimbursement rule that can be interpreted as a mixture of pure prospective payment and pure cost reimbursement, Under appropriate conditions, prospective payment can implement the first best even when the provider can use qualities to discriminate patients.

Notes: Suppose that a residential neighborhood may have been contaminated by anearby abandoned hazardous waste site. The suspected contamination consistsof elevated soil concentrations of chemicals that are also found in the absence of site-related contamination. How should a risk manager decide which residential properties to sample and which ones to clean? This paper introduces an adaptive spatial sampling approach which uses initial observations to guide subsequent search. Unlike some recent model-based spatial data analysis methods, it does not require any specific statistical model for the spatial distribution of hazards, but instead constructs an increasingly accurate nonparametric approximation to it as sampling proceeds. Possible cost-effective sampling and cleanup decision rules are described by decision parameters such as the number of randomly selected locations used to initialize the process, the number of highest-concentration locations searched around, the number of samples taken at each location, a stopping rule, and a remediation action threshold. These decision parameters are optimized by simulating the performance of each decision rule. The simulation is performed using the data collected so far to impute multiple probable values ofunknown soil concentration distributions during each simulation run. This optimized adaptive spatial sampling technique has been applied to real data using error probabilities for wrongly cleaning or wrongly failing to clean each location (compared to the action that would be taken if perfect information were available) as evaluation criteria. It provides a practical approach for quantifying trade-offs between these different types of errors and expected cost. It also identifies strategies that are undominated with respect to all of these criteria.

Notes: A call for risk assessment approaches that better characterize and quantify uncertainty has been made by the scientific and regulatory community. This paper responds to that call by demonstrating a distributional approachthat draws upon human data to derive potency estimates and to identify and quantify important sources of uncertainty. The approach is rooted in the science of decision analysis and employs an influence diagram, a decision tree, probabilistic weights, and a distribution of point estimates of carcinogenic potency. Its results estimate the likelihood of different carcinogenicrisks (potencies) for a chemical under a specific scenario. For this exercise, human data on formaldehyde were employed to demonstrate the approach. Sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the relative impact of specific levels and alternatives on the potency distribution. The resulting potency estimates are compared with the results of an exercise using animal data on formaldehyde. The paper demonstrates that distributional risk assessment is readily adapted to situations in which epidemiologic data serve as the basis for potency estimates. Strengths and weaknesses of the distributional approach are discussed. Areas for further application and research are recommended.

Notes: The paper applies classical statistical principles to yield new tools for risk assessment and makes new use of epidemiological data for human riskassessment. An extensive clinical and epidemiological study of workers engaged in the manufacturing and formulation of aldrin and dieldrin provides occupational hygiene and biological monitoring data on individual exposures over the years of employment and provides unusually accurate measures of individual lifetime average daily doses. In the cancer dose-response modeling, each worker is treated as a separate experimental unit with his own unique dose. Maximum likelihood estimates of added cancer risk are calculated for multistage, multistage-Weibull, and proportional hazards models. Distributional characterizations of added cancer risk are based on bootstrap and relative likelihood techniques. The cancer mortality data on these male workerssuggest that low-dose exposures to aldrin and dieldrin do not significantlyincrease human cancer risk and may even decrease the human hazard rate for all types of cancer combined at low doses (e.g., 1μg/kg/day). The apparent hormetic effect in the best fitting dose-response models for this data set is statistically significant. The decrease in cancer risk at low doses ofaldrin and dleldrin is in sharp contrast to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's upper bound on cancer potency based on mouse liver tumors. The EPA's upper bound implies that lifetime average daily doses of 0.0000625 and 0.00625 pμg/kg body weight/day would correspond to increased cancer risks of 0.000001 and O.OOO1, respectively. However, the best estimate from the Pernis epidemiological data is that there is no increase in cancer risk in these workers at these doses or even at doses as large as 2 μg/kg/day.

Notes: Ethylene oxide (EO) research has significantly increased since the 1980s, when regulatory risk assessments were last completed on the basis of theanimal cancer chronic bioassays. In tandem with the new scientific understanding, there have been evolutionary changes in regulatory risk assessment guidelines, that encourage flexibility and greater use of scientific information. The results of an updated meta-analysis of the findings from 10 unique EO study cohorts from five countries, including nearly 33,000 workers, and over 800 cancers are presented, indicating that EO does not cause increased risk of cancers overall or of brain, stomach or pancreatic cancers. The findings for leukemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) are inconclusive. Two studies with the requisite attributes of size, individual exposure estimates and follow up are the basis for dose-response modeling and added lifetime risk predictions under environmental and occupational exposure scenariosand a variety of plausible alternative assumptions. A point of departure analysis, with various margins of exposure, is also illustrated using human data. The two datasets produce remarkably similar leukemia added risk predictions, orders of magnitude lower than prior animal-based predictions under conservative, default assumptions, with risks on the order of 1 × 10−6 or lower for exposures in the low ppb range. Inconsistent results for “lymphoid” tumors, a non-standard grouping using histologic information from death certificates, are discussed. This assessment demonstrates the applicability of the current risk assessment paradigm to epidemiological data.

Notes: The human toxicity potential, a weighting scheme used to evaluate toxicemissions for life cycle assessment and toxics release inventories, is based on potential dose calculations and toxicity factors. This paper evaluatesthe variance in potential dose calculations that can be attributed to the uncertainty in chemical-specific input parameters as well as the variabilit in exposure factors and landscape parameters. A knowledge of the uncertainty allows us to assess the robustness of a decision based on the toxicity potential; a knowledge of the sources of uncertainty allows us to focus our resources if we want to reduce the uncertainty. The potential dose of 236 chemicals was assessed. The chemicals were grouped by dominant exposure route, and a Monte Carlo analysis was conducted for one representative chemical in each group. The variance is typically one to two orders of magnitude. For comparison, the point estimates in potential dose for 236 chemicals span ten orders of magnitude. Most of the variance in the potential dose is due to chemical-specific input parameters, especially half-lives, although exposure factors such as fish intake and the source of drinking water can be important for chemicals whose dominant exposure is through indirect routes. Landscape characteristics are generally of minor importance.

Notes: To assess soil and groundwater quality two generic (i.e. multifunctional) risk-based standards, Target and Intervention Value, have been developed, in the framework of the Dutch Soil Protection Act. These standards allow soil and groundwater to be classified as clean, slightly contaminated or seriously contaminated. The Target Value is basedon potential risks to ecosysystems, while the Intervention Value is based oqpotential risks to humans and ecosystems. In the case of serious soil contamination the site has, in principle, to be remediated, making it necessary to determine the remediation urgency on the basis of actual (i.e. site-specific) risks to humans and ecosystems and, besides, actual risks due to contaminant migration.

Notes: The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is a geological repository for disposal ofU.S. defense transuranic radioactive waste. Built and operated by the U.S. Departmentof Energy (DOE), it is located in the Permian age salt beds in southeastern New Mexico at a depth of 655 m. Performance assessment for the repository's compliance with the 10,000-year containment standards was completed in 1996 and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) certified in 1998 that the repository meets compliance with the EPA standards 40 CFR 191 and 40 CFR 194. The Environmental Evaluation Group (EEG) review of the DOE'S application for certification identified a number of issues. These related to the scenarios, conceptual models, and values of the input parameters used in the calculations. It is expected that these issues will be addressed and resolved during the first 5-year recertification process that began with the first receipt of waste at WIPP on March 26, 1999, and scheduled to be completed in March 2004.

Notes: The estimation of health risks from exposure to a mixture of chemical carcinogens is generally based on the combination of information from several available single compound studies. The current practice of directly summing the upper bound risk estimates of individual carcinogenic components as an upper bound on the total risk of a mixture is known to be generally too conservative. Gaylor and Chen (1996, Risk Analysis) proposed a simple procedure to compute an upper bound on the total risk using only the upper confidence limits and central risk estimates of individual carcinogens. The Gaylor-Chen procedure was derived based on an underlying assumption of the normality for the distributions of individual risk estimates. In this paper we evaluated the Gaylor-Chen approach in terms of the coverage probability. The performance of the Gaylor-Chen approach in terms the coverages of the upper confidence limits on the true risks of individual carcinogens. In general, if the coverage probabilities for the individual carcinogens are all approximately equal to the nominal level, then the Gaylor-Chen approach shouldperform well. However, the Gaylor-Chen approach can be conservative or anti-conservative if some or all individual upper confidence limit estimates are conservative or anti-conservative.

Notes: Political context may play a large role in influencing the efficiency of environmental and health regulations. This case study uses data from a 1989 update of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) Permissible Exposure Limits (PELS) program to determine the relative effects of legislative mandates, costly acquisition of information by the agency, and pressure applied by special interest groups upon exposure standards. The empirical analysis suggests that federal agencies successfully thwart legislative attempts to limit agency discretion, and that agencies exercise bounded rationality by placing greater emphasis on more easily obtained information. The 1989 PEL were less significantly related to more costly information, contained “safety factors” for chemicals presenting relatively more ambiguous risks, and the proposed standard stringencies showed evidence of beinginfluenced by vying industry and labor interests.

Notes: Monte Carlo methods in risk assessment are finding increasingly widespread application. With the recognition that inputs may be correlated, the incorporation of such correlations into the simulation has become important. Most implementations rely upon the method of Iman and Conover for generating correlated random variables. In this work, alternative methods using copulas are presented for deriving correlated random variables. It is further shown that the particular algorithm or assumption used may have a substantial effect on the output results, due to differences in higher order bivariate moments.

Notes: In this paper, we review methods for assessing and managing the risk of extreme events, where “extreme events” are defined to be rare, severe, and outside the normal range of experience of the system in question. First, we discuss several systematic approaches for identifying possible extreme events. We then discuss some issues related to risk assessment of extreme events, including what type of output is needed (e.g., a single probability vs. a probability distribution), and alternatives to the probabilistic approach. Next, we present a number of probabilistic methods. These include : guidelines for eliciting informative probability distributions from experts; maximum entropy distributions; extreme value theory; other approaches for constructing prior distributions (such as reference or noninformative priors); the use of modeling and decomposition to estimate the probability (or distribution) of interest; and bounding methods. Finally, we briefly discuss several approaches for managing the risk of extreme events, and conclude with recommendations and directions for future research.

Notes: This paper reviews existing data on the variability in parameters relevant for health risk analyses. We cover both exposure-related parameters andparameters related to individual susceptibility to toxicity. The toxicity/susceptibility data base under construction is part of a longer term research effort to lay the groundwork for quantitative distributional analyses of non-cancer toxic risks. These data are broken down into a variety of parameter types that encompass different portions of the pathway from external exposure to the production of biological responses. The discrete steps in this pathway, as we now conceive them, are:〈list xml:id="l2" style="custom"〉•Contact Rate (Breathing rates per body weight; fish consumption per bodyweight)•Uptake or Absorption as a Fraction of Intake or Contact Rate•General Systemic Availability Net of First Pass Elimination and Dilutionvia Distribution Volume (e.g., intial blood concentration per mg/kg of uptake)•Systemic Elimination (half life or clearance)•Active Site Concentration per Systemic Blood or Plasma Concentration•Physiological Parameter Change per Active Site Concentration (expressed as the dose required to make a given percentage change in different people, or the dose required to achieve some proportion of an individual's maximum response to the drug or toxicant)•Functional Reserve Capacity-Change in Baseline Physiological Parameter Needed to Produce a Biological Response or Pass a Criterion of Abnormal FunctionComparison of the amounts of variability observed for the different parameter types suggests that appreciable variability is associated with the final step in the process-differences among people in “functional reserve capacity.” This has the implication that relevant information for estimatingeffective toxic susceptibility distributions may be gleaned by direct studies of the population distributions of key physiological parameters in people that are not exposed to the environmental and occupational toxicants thatare thought to perturb those parameters. This is illustrated with some recent observations of the population distributions of Low Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol from the second and third National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys.

Notes: Proposed in this article is one possible framework for classifying multiple types of ethical issues in risk communication research and practice to help continue a discussion initiated in 1990 by Morgan and Lave. Some of the questions that each stage of the process for planning risk communication strategies appears to pose for ethics are discussed (e.g., selecting issues to be communicated, knowing the issue, dealing with constraints). Also discussed briefly are some issues raised by the possibility that risk communicators aspire to the status of a profession. The purpose is to foster discussion rather than issue a conclusive statement on the topic, because its very nature makes a definitive pronouncement indefensible.

Notes: The ultimate goal of the research reported in this series of three articles is to derive distributions of doses of selected environmental tobacco smoke (ETS)-related chemicals for nonsmoking workers. This analysis uses data from the 16-City Study collected with personal monitors over the course of one workday in workplaces where smoking occurred. In this article, we describe distributions of ETS chemical concentrations and the characteristicsof those distributions (e.g., whether the distribution was log normal for agiven constituent) for the workplace exposure. Next, we present population parameters relevant for estimating dose distributions and the methods used for estimating those dose distributions. Finally, we derive distributions of doses of selected ETS-related constituents obtained in the workplace for people in smoking work environments. Estimating dose distributions providedinformation beyond the usual point estimate of dose and showed that the preponderance of individuals exposed to ETS in the workplace were exposed at the low end of the dose distribution curve. The results of this analysis include estimations of hourly maxima and time-weighted average (TWA) doses of nicotine from workplace exposures to ETS (extrapolated from 1 day to 1 week) and doses derived from modeled lung burdens of ultraviolet-absorbing particulate matter (UVPM) and solanesol resulting from workplace exposures to ETS (extrapolated from 1 day to 1 year).

Notes: Through surveys of students and junior professionals and interviews with business and government executives, we studied Chinese choices and fairness perceptions in risky health and safety decisions. The survey responses were compared with American responses from an earlier study by Keller and Sarin.The survey results show that the American and Chinese respondents had similar fairness perceptions, but the Chinese did not make decisions that were consistent with their fairness perceptions, whereas the Americans did. We found that the middle-age Chinese professionals tended to make choices that were more different from the Americans than were the choices of the young Chinese management students. It is likely that these discrepancies were caused by cultural differences, with the younger Chinese tending to face a stronger Western influence.The insights from the survey results were enriched by interviews that revealed fairness perceptions of Chinese business and government executives.A framework to interpret cultural influences on decision making was also proposed.

Notes: The risk of catastrophic failures, for example in the aviation and aerospace industries, can be approached from different angles (e.g., statistics when they exist, or a detailed probabilistic analysis of the system). Each new accident carries information that has already been included in the experience base or constitutes new evidence that can be used to update a previous assessment of the risk. In this paper, we take a different approach and consider the risk and the updating from the investor's point of view. Based on the market response to past airplane accidents, we examine which ones have created a “surprise response” and which ones are considered part of the risk of the airline business as previously assessed. To do so, we quantify the magnitude and the timing of the observed market response to catastrophic accidents, and we compare it to an estimate of the response that would be expected based on the true actual cost of the accident including direct and indirect costs (“full-cost information” response). First, we develop a method based on stock market data to measure the actual market response to an accident and we construct an estimate of the “full-cost information” response to such an event. We then compare the two figures for the immediate and the long-term response of the market for the affected firm, as well as for the whole industry group to which the firm belongs. As an illustration, we analyze a sample of ten fatal accidents experienced by major US domestic airlines during the last seven years. In four cases, we observed an abnormal market response. In these instances, it seems that the shareholders may have updated their estimates of the probability of a future accident in the affected airlines or more generally of the firm's future business prospects. This market reaction is not always easy to explain much less to anticipate, a fact which management should bear in mind when planning a firm's response to such an event.

Notes: This paper describes the application of two multimedia models, PRESTO and MMSOILS, to predict contaminant migration from a landfill that contains an organic chemical (methylene chloride) and a radionuclide (uranium-238). Exposure point concentrations and human health risks are predicted, and distributions of those predictions are generated using Monte Carlo techniques. Analysis of exposure point concentrations shows that predictions of uranium-238 in groundwater differ by more than one order of magnitude between models. These differences occur mainly because PRESTO simulates uranium-238 transport through the groundwater using a one-dimensional algorithm and vertically mixes the plume over an effective mixing depth, whereas MMSOILS uses a three-dimensional algorithm and simulates a plume that resides near the surface of the aquifer.A sensitivity analysis, using stepwise multiple linear regression, is performed to evaluate which of the random variables are most important in producing the predicted distributions of exposure point concentrations and health risks. The sensitivity analysis shows that the predicted distributions can be accurately reproduced using a small subset of the random variables. Simple regression techniques are applied, for comparison, to the same scenarios, and results are similar. The practical implication of this analysis is the ability to distinguish between important versus unimportant random variables in terms of their sensitivity to selected endpoints.

Notes: A sample of 323 residents of New Jersey stratified by neighborhood quality (excellent, good, fair, poor) was gathered to determine if trust in science and technology to protect public health and environment at the societal scale was associated with trust of the local officials, such as the mayor, health officer, developers, mass media, and legislators who are guardians of the local environment. Societal (trust of science and technology) and neighborhood (mayor, health officer) dimensions of trust were found. These societal and neighborhood trust dimen-sions were weakly correlated. Respondents were divided into four trust-of-authority groups: high societal-high neighborhood, low societal-low neighborhood, high societal-low neigh-borhood, and low societal-high neighborhood. High societal-high neighborhood trust re-spondents were older, had lived in the neighborhoods for many years, were not troubled much by neighborhood or societal environmental threats, and had a strong sense of control over their environment. In strong contrast, low societal-low neighborhood trust respondents were relatively young, typically had lived in their present neighborhood for a short time, were troubled by numerous neighborhood and societal environmental threats, did not practice many personal public health practices, and felt little control over their environment.

Notes: Recreational and subsistence angling are important aspects of urban culture for much of North America where people are concentrated near the coasts or major rivers. Yet there are fish and shellfish advisories for many estuaries, rivers, and lakes, and these are not always heeded. This paper examines fishing behavior, sources of information, perceptions, and compliance with fishing advisories as a function of ethnicity for people fishing in the Newark Bay Complex of the New York-New Jersey Harbor. We test the null hypothesis that there were no ethnic differences in sources of information, perceptions of the safety of fish consumption, and compliance with advisories. There were ethnic differences in consumption rates, sources of information about fishing, knowledge about the safety of the fish, awareness of fishing advisories or of the correct advisories, and knowledge about risks for increased cancer and to unborn and young children. In general, the knowledge base was much lower for Hispanics, was intermediate for blacks, and was greatest for whites. When presented with a statement about the potential risks from eating fish, there were no differences in their willingness to stop eating fish or to encourage pregnant women to stop. These results indicate a willingness to comply with advisories regardless of ethnicity, but a vast difference in the base knowledge necessary to make informed risk decisions about the safety of fish and shellfish. Although the overall median income level of the population was in the $25,000-34,999 income category, for Hispanics it was on the border between $15,OOO-24,999 and $25,000-34,999.

Notes: Water pollution from agricultural pesticides continues to be a public concern. Given that the use of such pesticides on the farm is largely governed by voluntary behavior, it is important to understand what drives farmer behavior. Health belief models in public health and social psychology argue that persons who have adverse health experiences are likely to undertake preventive behavior. An analogous hypothesis set was tested here: farmers who believe they have had adverse health experiences from pesticides are likely to have heightened concerns about pesticides and are more likely to take greater precautions in dealing with pesticides. This work is based on an original survey of a population of 2700 corn and soybean growers in Maryland, New York, and Pennsylvania using the U.S. Department of Agriculture data base. It was designed as a mail survey with telephone follow-up, and resulted in a 60 percent response rate. Farm operators report experiencing adverse health problems they believe are associated with pesticides that is equivalent to an incidence rate that is higher than the reported incidence of occupational pesticide poisonings, but similar to the reported incidence of all pesticide poisonings. Farmers who report experiencing such problems have more heightened concerns about water pollution from fertilizers and pesticides, and illness and injury from mixing, loading, and applying pesticides than farmers who have not experienced such problems. Farmers who report experiencing such problems also are more likely to report using alternative pest management practices than farmers who do not report having such problems. This implies that farmers who have had such experiences do care about the effects of application and do engage in alternative means of pest management, which at least involve the reduction in pesticide use.

Notes: The approximate solution of the two-stage clonal expansion model of cancer may substantially deviate from the exact solution, and may therefore lead to erroneous conclusions in particular applications. However, for time-varying parameters the exact solution (method of characteristics) is not easy to implement, hampering the accessibility of the model to nonmathematicians. Based on intuitive reasoning, Clewell et al. (1995) proposed an improved approximate solution that is easy to implement whatever time-varying behavior the parameters may have. Here we provide the mathematical foundation for the approximation suggested by Clewell et al. (1995) and show that, after a slight modification, it is in fact an exact solution for the case of time-constant parameters. We were not able to prove that it is an exact solution for time-varying parameters as well. However, several computer simulations showed that the numerical results do not differ from the exact solution as proposed by Moolgavkar and Luebeck (1990). The advantage of this alternative solution is that the hazard rate of the first malignant cell can be evaluated by numerically integrating a single differential equation.

Notes: The regional economic impacts of the U.S. Department of Energy's accelerated environmental cleanup plan are estimated for the major nuclear weapons sites in Colorado, Idaho, New Mexico, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Washington. The analysis shows that the impact falls heavily on the three relatively rural regions around the Savannah River (SC), Hanford (WA), and Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (ID) sites. A less aggressive phase-down of environmental management funds and separate funds toinvest in education and infrastructure in the regions helps buffer theimpacts on jobs, personal income, and gross regional product. Policy options open to the federal and state and local governments are discussed.

Notes: The concept of exposure is central to chemical risk assessment and plays an important role in communicating to the public about the potential healthrisks of chemicals. Research on chemical risk perception has found some indication that the model lay people use to judge chemical exposure differs from that of toxicologists, thereby leading to different conclusions aboutchemical safety. This paper presents the results of a series of studies directed toward developing a model for understanding how lay people interpret the concept of chemical exposure. The results indicate that people'sbeliefs about chemical exposure (and its risks) are based on two broad categories of inferences. One category of inferences relates to the nature inwhich contact with a chemical has taken place, including the amount of a chemical involved and its potential health consequences. A second category ofinferences about chemical exposure relates to the pragmatics of languageinterpretation, leading to beliefs about the motives and purposes behind chemical risk communication. Risk communicators are encouraged to consider how alternative models of exposure and language interpretation can leadto conflicting conclusions on the part of the public about chemical safety.

Notes: Risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Polarized views, controversy, and conflict have become pervasive. Research has begun to provide a new perspective on this problem by demonstrating the complexity of the concept “risk” and the inadequacies of the traditionalview of risk assessment as a purely scientific enterprise. This paper argues that danger is real, but risk is socially constructed. Risk assessment is inherently subjective and represents a blending of science and judgmentwith important psychological, social, cultural, and political factors. In addition, our social and democratic institutions, remarkable as they are in many respects, breed distrust in the risk arena. Whoever controls the definition of risk controls the rational solution to the problem at hand. Ifrisk is defined one way, then one option will rise to the top as the most cost-effective or the safest or the best. If it is defined another way, perhaps incorporating qualitative characteristics and other contextual factors, one will likely get a different ordering of action solutions. Definingrisk is thus an exercise in power. Scientific literacy and public education are important, but they are not central to risk controversies. The public is not irrational. Their judgments about risk are influenced by emotion and affect in a way that is both simple and sophisticated. The same holds true for scientists. Public views are also influenced by worldviews, ideologies, and values; so are scientists' views, particularly when they are working at the limits of their expertise. The limitations of risk science, the importance and difficulty of maintaining trust, and the complex, sociopolitical nature of risk point to the need for a new approach-one that focuses upon introducing more public participation into both risk assessment and risk decision making in order to make the decision process more democratic, improve the relevance and quality of technical analysis, and increasethe legitimacy and public acceptance of the resulting decisions.

Notes: This paper examines the impact that insurance coupled with specific risk mitigation measures (RMMs) could have on reducing losses from hurricanes and earthquakes as well as improving the solvency position of insurers who provide coverage against these hazards. We first explore why relatively fewindividuals adopt cost-effective RMMs by reporting on the results of empirical studies and controlled laboratory studies. We then investigate the impact that an RMM has on both the expected losses and those from a worst case scenario in two model cities-Oakland (an earthquake-prone area) and Miami/Dade County (a hurricane-prone area) which were constructed respectively with the assistance of two modeling firms. The paper then explores three programs for forging a meaningful public-private sector partner- ship: well-enforced building codes, insurance premium reductions linked with long-term loans, and lower deductibles on insurance policies tied to mitigation. We conclude by briefly examining four issues for future research on linking mitigation with insurance.

Notes: The 16-City Study analyzed for gas-phase environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) constituents (nicotine, 3-ethenyl pyridine [3-EP], and myosmine) and for particulate-phase constituents (respirable particulate matter [RSP], ultraviolet-absorbing particulate matter [UVPM], fluorescing particulate matter [FPM], scopoletin, and solanesol). In this second of three articles, we discussthe merits of each constituent as a marker for ETS and report pair-wise comparisons of the markers. Neither nicotine nor UVPM were good predictors for RSP. However, nicotine and UVPM were good qualitative predictors of each other. Nicotine was correlated with other gas-phase constituents. Comparisons between UVPM and other particulate-phase constituents were performed. Its relation with FPM was excellent, with UVPM approximately 11/2 times FPM. The correlation between UVPM and solanesol was good, but the relationship between the two was not linear. The relation between UVPM and scopoletin was not good, largely because of noise in the scopoletin measures around its limit of detection. We considered the relation between nicotine and saliva cotinine, a metabolite of nicotine. The two were highly correlated on the group level. That is, for each cell (smoking home and work, smoking home but nonsmoking work, and so forth), there was high correlation between average cotinine and 24-hour time-weighted average (TWA) nicotine concentrations. However, on the individual level, the correlations, although significant, were not biologically meaningful. A consideration of cotinine and nicotine or 3-EP on a subset of the study whoseonly exposure to ETS was exclusively at work or exclusively at home showed that home exposure was a more important source of ETS than work exposure.

Notes: In the design, development, and manufacturing stage of industrial products, engineers usually focus on the problems caused by hardware or software, but pay less attention to problems caused by “human error,” which may significantly affect system reliability and safety. Although operating procedures are strictly followed, human error still may occur occasionally. Among the influencing factors, the inappropriate design of standard operation procedure (SOP) or standard assembly procedure (SAP) is an important and latent reason for unexpected results found during human operation. To reduce the error probability and error effects of these unexpected behaviors in the industrial work process, overall evaluation of SOP or SAP quality has become an essential task. The human error criticality analysis (HECA) method was developed to identify the potentially critical problems caused by human error in the human operation system. This method performs task analysis on the basis of operation procedure. For example, SOP, analyzes the human error probability (HEP) for each human operation step, and assesses its error effects to the whole system. The results of the analysis will show the interrelationship that exists between critical human tasks, critical human error modes, and human reliability information of the human operation system. To identify the robustness of the model, a case study of initiator assembly tasks was conducted. Results show that the HECA method is practicable in evaluating the operation procedure, and the information is valuable in identifying the means to upgrade human reliability and system safety for human tasks.

Notes: The research reported here examines the relationship between risk perceptions and willingness to address climate change. The data are a national sample of 1225 mail surveys that include measures of risk perceptions and knowledge tied to climate change, support for voluntary and government actions to address the problem, general environmental beliefs, and demographic variables. Risk perceptions matter in predicting behavioral intentions. Risk perceptions are not a surrogate for general environmental beliefs, but have their own power to account for behavioral intentions. There are four secondary conclusions. First, behavioral intentions regarding climate change are complex and intriguing. People are neither “nonbelievers” who will take no initiatives themselves and oppose all government efforts, nor are they “believers” who promise both to make personal efforts and to vote for every government proposal that promises to address climate change. Second, there are separate demographic sources for voluntary actions compared with voting intentions. Third, recognizing the causes of global warming is a powerful predictor of behavioral intentions independent from believing that climate change will happen and have bad consequences. Finally, the success of the risk perception variables to account for behavioral intentions should encourage greater attention to risk perceptions as independent variables. Risk perceptions and knowledge, however, share the stage with general environmental beliefs and demographic characteristics. Although related, risk perceptions, knowledge, and general environmental beliefs are somewhat independent predictors of behavioral intentions.

Notes: This paper concerns the combination of experts' probability distributions in risk analysis, discussing a variety of combination methods and attempting to highlight the important conceptual and practical issues to be considered in designing a combination process in practice. The role of experts is important because their judgments can provide valuable information, particularly in view of the limited availability of “hard data” regarding many important uncertainties in risk analysis. Because uncertainties are represented in terms of probability distributions in probabilistic risk analysis (PRA), we consider expert information in terms of probability distributions. The motivation for the use of multiple experts is simply the desire to obtain as much information as possible. Combining experts' probability distributions summarizes the accumulated information for risk analysts and decision-makers. Procedures for combining probability distributions are often compartmentalized as mathematical aggregation methods or behavioral approaches, and we discuss both categories. However, an overall aggregation process could involve both mathematical and behavioral aspects, and no single process is best in all circumstances. An understanding of the pros and cons of different methods and the key issues to consider is valuable in the design of acombination process for a specific PRA. The output, a ”combined probabilitydistribution,” can ideally be viewed as representing a summary of the current state of expert opinion regarding the uncertainty of interest.

Notes: The reliability of a treatment process is addressed in terms of achieving a regulatory effluent concentration standard and the design safety factors associated with the treatment process. This methodology was then appliedto two aqueous hazardous waste treatment processes: packed tower aeration and activated sludge (aerobic) biological treatment. The designs achieving 95 percent reliability were compared with those designs based on conventional practice to determine their patterns of conservatism. Scoping-level treatment costs were also related to reliability levels for these treatment processes. The results indicate that the reliability levels for the physicalkhemical treatment process (packed tower aeration) based on the deterministic safety factors range from 80 percent to over 99 percent, whereas those for the biological treatment process range from near 0 percent to over 99 percent, depending on the compound evaluated. Increases in reliability per unit increase in treatment costs are most pronounced at lower reliability levels(less than about 80 percent) than at the higher reliability levels (greaterthan 90 percent, indicating a point of diminishing returns. Additional research focused on process parameters that presently contain large uncertainties may reduce those uncertainties, with attending increases in the reliability levels of the treatment processes.

Notes: A mechanistic model and associated procedures are proposed for cancer risk assessment of genotoxic chemicals. As previously shown for ionizing radiation, a linear multiplicative model was found to be compatible with published experimental data for ethylene oxide, acrylamide, and butadiene. The validity of this model was anticipated in view of the multiplicative interaction of mutation with inherited and acquired growth-promoting conditions. Concurrent analysis led to rejection of an additive model (i.e. the model commonly applied for cancer risk assessment). A reanalysis of data for radiogenic cancer in mouse, dog and man shows that the relative risk coefficient is approximately the same (0.4 to 0.5 percent per rad) for tumours induced in the three species.Doses in vivo, defined as the time-integrated concentrations of ultimate mutagens, expressed in millimol X kg-1 x h (mMh) are, like radiation doses given in Gy or rad, proportional to frequencies of potentially mutagenic events. The radiation dose equivalents of chemical doses are, calculated by multiplying chemical doses (in mMh) with the relative genotoxic potencies (in rad X mMh-1) determined in vitro. In this way the relative cancer incidence increments in rats and mice exposed to ethylene oxide were shown to be about 0.4 percent per rad-equivalent, in agreement with the data for radiogenic cancer.Our analyses suggest that values of the relative risk coefficients for genotoxic chemicals are independent of species and that relative cancer risks determined in animal tests apply also to humans. If reliable animal test data are not available, cancer risks may be estimated by the relative potency. In both cases exposure dose/target dose relationships, the latter via macromolecule adducts, should be determined.

Notes: This paper is a challenge from a pair of lifelong technical specialists in risk assessment for the risk-management community to better define social decision criteria for risk acceptance vs. risk control in relation to the issues of variability and uncertainty. To stimulate discussion, we offer a variety of “straw man” proposals about where we think Variability and uncertainty are likely to matter for different types of social policy considerations in the context of a few different kinds of decisions. In particular, we draw on recent presentations of uncertainty and variability data that have been offered by EPA in the context of the consideration of revised ambient air quality standards under the Clean Air Act.

Notes: Risk assessors attempting to use probabilistic approaches to describe uncertaintyoften find themselves in a data-sparse situation: available data are only partially relevant to the parameter of interest, so one needs to adjust empirical distributions, use explicit judgmental distributions, or collect new data. In determining whether ornot to collect additional data, whether by measurement or by elicitation of experts, it is useful to consider the expected value of the additional information. The expected value of information depends on the prior distribution used to represent current information; if the prior distribution is too narrow, in many risk-analytic cases the calculated expected value of information will be biased downward. The well-documentedtendency toward overconfidence, including the neglect of potential surprise, suggeststhis bias may be substantial. We examine the expected value of information, includingthe role of surprise, test for bias in estimating the expected value of information, and suggest procedures to guard against overconfidence and underestimation of the expected value of information when developing prior distributions and when combining distributions obtained from multiple experts. The methods are illustrated with applications to potential carcinogens in food, commercial energy demand, and global climate change.

Notes: Structures in rocks altered by the infiltration of magmatic fluids provide key constraints on the relative timing of plutonism and regional deformation in the central Old Woman Mountains, south-eastern California. In this well-exposed area the Scanlon shear zone, a belt of attenuated, shallowly dipping, amphibolite facies Palaeozoic strata, is in contact with two tabular, Late Cretaceous (∼74 Ma) granitoid plutons. The shear zone contains massive wollastonite-bearing skarns ∼40 m above the contact with the Old Woman granodiorite. Field evidence, petrological data and stable isotope compositions indicate that the mineral assemblages in these skarns formed when the granodiorite crystallized and exsolved water-rich, magmatic fluids. Structural features in the skarns, which include transposed wollastonite foliations, syntectonic vesuvianite and garnet porphyroblasts, and quartz ± wollastonite veins, afford an opportunity to monitor the regional strain at the time of pluton crystallization. These structures yield a broad range of timing relationships that indicate synkinematic mineral growth with deformation ending first, at c. 74 Ma. The metasomatic structures are kinematically compatible with the regional deformation observed in other lithologies and no post-tectonic features overprint the fabrics in the skarns. Observations of isoclinally folded and boudinaged dykes and pegmatites, granodiorite saddle reefs in isoclinal fold hinges, and undeformed, locally pegmatitic dykes also yield a broad range of timing relationships indicative of synkinematic plutonism, with deformation ending first. Our results show that coupling petrological and stable isotope data with structural analysis is effective for unravelling the relative timing of heat and mass transfer processes in pluton-wallrock systems.

Notes: The Old Woman Mountains in south-eastern California are a Late Cretaceous low-pressure metamorphic terrane where multiple magmatic intrusions generated broad regions of elevated metamorphic temperatures. In the Scanlon Gulch area, two sheet-like, Late Cretaceous granitoid plutons are in contact with the Scanlon shear zone, a 1-km-thick sheet of isoclinally folded and transposed metamorphic rocks. The metaluminous Old Woman granodiorite underlies the shear zone and the peraluminous Sweetwater Wash granite overlies it. Both plutons record emplacement ages of ∼74 Ma. Thermobarometry and phase relations in the shear zone suggest that peak metamorphism was at 650 ± 50† C and 4.3 ± 0.5 kbar. Late Cretaceous metamorphic temperatures were less elsewhere in the Old Woman Mountains, away from the intrusions.One-dimensional thermal models are used to investigate how differences in the time between the emplacement of plutons would affect the thermal evolution of the central Old Woman Mountains. The prediction of a thermal history inferred from petrological and thermochronological data requires the rapid emplacement of the two plutons around the shear zone; simulations with delays of more than 1 Myr in the emplacement of the second pluton failed to predict peak metamorphic temperatures. Calculations which consider only the emplacement of a single pluton yield metamorphic temperatures that are too low. The time separating the intrusions is by far the most sensitive parameter in the calculations; assumptions concerning the treatment of the initial geothermal gradient and the latent heat of crystallization have relatively small effects on the predicted thermal histories. Our results suggest that for certain geometries, relatively short-lived magmatic events involving rapid emplacement of multiple intrusions can produce low-pressure metamorphism.

Notes: Chemical data for 139 natural paragonite-muscovite (Pg-Ms) pairs illustrate the effects of ferromagnesian components on the P-T-X topology of the Pg-Ms solvus. The pairs were selected on the basis of: reasonably accurate knowledge of the P-T conditions of formation; evidence for close approach to equilibrium at peak metamorphic conditions; exclusion of pairs in which paragonite contains more than 5 mol% margarite; and exclusion of pairs from polymetamorphic rocks that contain more than one set of cogenetic Pg-Ms pairs. Graphical analysis reveals considerable scatter in the data; nevertheless, it is evident that the muscovite limb of the solvus shifts markedly toward end-member muscovite with increasing pressure from approximately 7 kbar to 21 kbar. This shift is attributed to a pressure-induced increase of the ferromagnesian content of muscovite, which increases the size of the XII alkali site - to the effect that K is more readily accommodated than Na. The data also suggest that the paragonite limb of the solvus migrates slightly toward end-member paragonite with increasing pressure. Broadening of the Pg-Ms solvus with increasing pressure reflects increasingly nonideal Na-K mixing as the phengite content of muscovite increases. Due to the wide scatter of data for Pg-phengitic-Ms pairs, it is concluded that, at the present time, Pg-Ms solvus thermometry is only viable for quasibinary Pg-Ms pairs.

Notes: Calc-silicate boudins within Proterozoic granulite facies gneisses of the northern Prince Charles Mountains, East Antarctica, preserve a number of reaction textures including garnet coronas between calcite and scapolite; garnet-quartz coronas between scapolite and wollastonite and between plagioclase and wollastonite; calcite-quartz intergrowths in wollastonite; and calcite-plagioclase symplectites in scapolite. These textures have been modelled using petrogenetic grids for reactions in the CaO-Al2,O3-SiO2-CO2 system, but with reduced mineral activities to account for additional components in real mineral compositions. Such fixed-composition reduced-activity grids are strictly valid only at the point in P-T-aCO2 space where an assemblage last equilibrated, and do not show the true positions of reactions away from this point because mineral compositions change with reaction progress. In this case, however, mineral compositions close to end-member values and low extents of reaction progress mean that compositional change was limited and the grids are good approximations to true pseudosections over the entire P-T-aco2 range of interest.The grids show that the textures are consistent with near-isobaric cooling from about 850 to 700d̀ C at 7 kbar, a P-T path compatible with thermobarometric studies of other lithologies from the area. Phase relationships indicate that CO2 activities were buffered by the local mineral assemblage during peak and retrograde metamorphism, either under fluid-absent conditions or within a non-pervasive fluid phase. Previous studies of garnet coronas in scapolite-wollastonite calc-silicates have used qualitative grids based on limited experimental data to invoke garnet growth during water infiltration at high temperature, but the grids used here show that garnet coronas can form on cooling, without any need for water influx.

Notes: The prograde amphibole that coexists with chlorite, epidote, muscovite, albite, quartz and hematite in Sanbagawa schists was examined to investigate the relationship between the prograde P-T paths of individual rocks and the metamorphic field gradient in the Sanbagawa metamorphic belt, central Shikoku. The amphibole changes from actinolite, through ferri-winchite and crossite, to barroisite and hornblende with increasing grade along the metamorphic field gradient. However, the sequence of prograde amphibole compositions in each sample varies in different mineral zones. The general scheme can be summarized as: magnesioriebeckite-riebeckite crossite in the upper chlorite zone of lower-grade rocks; crossite or glaucophane barroisite in the garnet zone of medium-grade rocks; and actinolite or winchite barroisite hornblende in the albite-biotite zone of higher-grade rocks. Changes of amphibole composition indicate that the prograde P-T path recorded in the higher-grade rocks was situated on the higher-temperature side of that of the lower-grade rocks and on the lower-pressure side of the metamorphic field gradient. The systematic change of P-T paths implies an increasing dP/dT during continuous subduction. These features can be interpreted as documenting prograde metamorphism within a young subduction zone that has a non-steady-state geotherm.

Notes: Oxygen isotope ratios, whole rock major and trace element compositions, and petrological characteristics of 52 samples from nine distinct igneous lithologies in the lower plate of the Whipple Mountain metamorphic core complex of south-eastern California indicate that both mylonitic and non-mylonitic lithologies underwent exchange with surface-derived meteoric waters. Broadly granodioritic lithologies are characterized by whole rock δ18O values that range from 10.6 to 2.6‰. Isotopic compositions of quartz and feldspar mineral separates indicate that quartz has largely retained original igneous compositions but that feldspar has undergone variable and often large 18O-depletions (up to 6.5‰).Over 4 km of structural relief is exposed in lower plate gneisses below the Whipple detachment fault including non-mylonitic lithologies at shallow structural levels above the mylonite front, and mylonitic gneisses at intermediate to deep levels below the mylonite front. Coupled δ18Oqtz - δ18OFsp systematics of non-mylonitic and mylonitic andesite to rhyolite dykes from shallow and intermediate structural levels of the lower plate document two episodes of hydrothermal alteration: a high-temperature (〉c.600d̀C) episode involving a metamorphic or magmatic fluid with δ18O values ∼ 7‰ and a low-temperature (c.350d̀C) episode involving low-δ18O meteoric fluids. All the dykes that document exchange with meteoric fluids are non-mylonitic. Coupled δ18OFsp systematics of non-mylonitic and mylonitic granodioritic gneisses from above and below the mylonite front also document low-temperature (c. 350d̀ C) exchange with meteoric fluids. The data indicate that infiltration of meteoric fluids occurred as lower plate lithologies were juxtaposed against the base of the faulted upper plate. High-angle normal faults in the upper plate served as the conduits for the downward circulation of surface-derived fluids. Meteoric fluids were able to penetrate across the detachment fault into the lower plate.Uplift rates coupled with independent cooling rates indicate that surface-derived fluids penetrated to a depth of c.4km and possibly as deep as c.8km. Penetration of surface-derived fluid into the ductile deformation regime is not required to explain the low δ18O values observed in lower plate lithologies of the Whipple Mountain metamorphic core complex.

Notes: The contact metamorphosed metapelitic and metapsammitic rocks surrounding the Stawell granite, western Victoria, Australia, are divided into three zones: the low-grade zone, the medium-grade zone and the high-grade zone. Detailed petrological study shows consistency of element distributions, implying that equilibrium was widely attained in the rocks, although equilibrium volumes are generally small (millimetre scale) and considerable mineral chemical variations exist between adjacent domains. The metamorphic mineral assemblages are generally of high variance (KFMASH variance ≤ 2). Consequently, the chemical evolution of assemblages is controlled largely by bulk composition and metamorphic temperature, the former factor being more important in most rocks. The chemographic relations of mineral assemblages in low- and medium- to high-grade zones are presented in compatibility diagrams projected from biotite, quartz and H2O, and biotite, K-feldspar and H2O, respectively. These compatibility diagrams have the advantage of showing both quartz-bearing and quartz-absent assemblages. The metamorphic reactions are modelled successfully by a calculated petrogenetic grid that combines both KFASH and KMASH equilibria. Based on petrographic observations and with constraints from the calculated petrogenetic grid, the following KFMASH reactions, in the order of increasing metamorphic grade, are responsible for producing the various mineral assemblages in the Stawell rocks:chl + mu + q = bi + cd + V,chl + q + cd = g + V,mu + bi + q = ksp + cd + V,mu + q = ksp + and + cd + V (or KASH mu + q = ksp + and + V),mu + cd = ksp + and + bi + V,mu + bi + and = ksp + sp + V,and + bi = ksp + sp + cd + V,mu + bi = ksp + cor + sp + V,mu = ksp + cor + and + sp + V (or KASH mu = ksp + cor + V),bi + cd + q = g + ksp + V.The combined KFASH and KMASH grid provides constraints on reaction coefficients in the above sequence of reactions and on temperature and pressure of metamorphism.

Notes: The Valentine wollastonite skarn in the north-west Adirondack Mountains, New York, is a seven million ton deposit which resulted from channellized infiltration of H2O-rich, silica-bearing fluids. The wollastonite formed by reaction of these fluids with non-siliceous calcite marble. The skarn formed at the contact of the syenitic Diana Complex and was subsequently overprinted by Grenville-age granulite facies metamorphism and retrograde hydrothermal alteration during uplift. Calcite marbles adjacent to the deposit have generally high δ18O values (c. 21‰), typical of Grenville marbles which have not exchanged extensively with externally derived fluids. Carbon isotopic fractiona-tions between coexisting calcite and graphite in the marbles indicate equilibration at 675d̀ C, consistent with the conditions of regional metamorphism. Oxygen isotopic ratios from wollastonite skarn are lower than in the marbles and show a 14‰ variation (-1‰ to 13‰). Some isotopic heterogeneity is preserved from skarn formation, and some represents localized exchange with low-δ18O retrograde fluids. Detailed millimetre- to centimetre-scale isotopic profiles taken across skarn/marble contacts reveal steep δ18O gradients in the skarn, with values increasing towards the marble. The gradients reflect isotopic evolution of the fluid as it reacted with high δ18O calcite to form wollastonite. Calcite in the marble preserves high δ18O values to within 〈5 mm of the skarn contact. The preservation of high δ18O values in marbles at skarn contacts and the disequilibrium fractionation between wollastonite skarn and calcite marble across these contacts indicate that the marbles were not infiltrated with significant quantities of the fluid. Thus, the marbles were relatively impermeable during both the skarn formation and retrograde alteration. Skarn formation may have been episodic and fluid flow was either chaotic or dominantly parallel to lithological contacts. Although these steep isotope gradients resemble fluid infiltration fronts, they actually represent the sides of the major flow system. Because chromatographic infiltration models of mass transport require the assumption of pervasive fluid flow through a permeable rock, such models are not applicable to this hydrothermal system and, by extension, to many other metamorphic systems where low-permeability rocks restrict fluid migration pathways. Minimum time-integrated fluid fluxes have been calculated at the Valentine deposit using oxygen isotopic mass balance, reaction progress of fluid buffering reactions, and silica mass balance. All three approaches show that large volumes of fluid were necessary to produce the skarn, but silica mass balance calculations yield the largest minimum flux and are hence the most realistic.

Notes: The Witwatersrand goldfields contain abundant assemblages that include pyrophyllite, chloritoid, chlorite, kaolinite and/or kyanite, with quartz. A chemographic analysis of the system Fe(Mg)-Al-Si-O-H involving these minerals yields 22 potential phase diagrams. Using orientation criteria and thermodynamic calculations as further constraints, this list has been reduced to three possible diagrams. New thermodynamic data favour one of these in particular.This chemographic analysis demonstrates that formation of chloritoid is not restricted to the breakdown reaction of kaolinite plus chlorite in the F(M)ASH system, as stated by previous studies, but could be from pyrophyllite + chlorite → chloritoid + quartz + H2O.The metamorphic temperature variation between Witwatersrand goldfields exceeded 65d̀ C, based on chlorite and chloritoid compositions. The lower and upper pressure limits are constrained by the andalusite to kyanite, and the sudoite/chlorite to carpholite boundaries, i.e. 1.5–2.8, and 7 kbar, respectively. The widespread pyrophyllite, chlorite and Fe-chloritoid in all the Witwatersrand goldfields, and the local occurrence of sudoite indicate a consistent low-pressure environment in which Mg-chloritoid would not be stable.

Notes: Porphyroblast inclusion trails provide important information about the tectonometamorphic evolution of a metamorphic rock. However, there remains considerable controversy over whether porphyroblasts rotate during bulk non-coaxial deformation.With reference to an area of the Scandinavian Caledonides and utilizing existing data from theoretical and experimental modelling, this study demonstrates that both ‘straight’ and ‘S-shaped’ inclusion trails are consistent with an interpretation in terms of syndeformational porphyroblast growth in a regime approximating to Newtonian simple shear. At crustal strain rates of 10-14 s-1 and porphyroblast growth times of 0.1–1.0 Ma, it is shown that a maximum of 5d̀-9d̀ angular rotation would occur during growth. At faster strain rates of 10-12 s-1 (e.g. those in a shear zone) porphyroblast angular rotations of 90d̀ are shown to occur in 0.1–0.25 Ma (i.e. times comparable with or faster than porphyroblastesis). In view of this, ‘S-shaped’ inclusion trails are to be expected in porphyroblasts growing in active shear zones or other situations of high shear strain, whereas ‘straight’ inclusion trails can be interpreted as static overgrowth of an existing fabric or as syndeformational porphyroblastesis at low strain rates.

Notes: The Peripheral Schieferhülle of the Tauern Window of the Eastern Alps represents post-Hercynian Penninic cover sequences and preserves a record of metamorphism in the Alpine orogeny, without the inherited remnants of Hercynian events that are retained in basement rocks. The temperature-time-deformation history of rocks at the lower levels of these cover sequences have been investigated by geochronological and petrographic study of units whose P-T evolution and structural setting are already well understood.The Eclogite Zone of the central Tauern formed from protoliths with Penninic cover affinities, and suffered early Alpine eclogite facies metamorphism before tectonic interposition between basement and cover. It then shared a common metamorphic history with these units, experiencing blueschist facies and subsequent greenschist facies conditions in the Alpine orogeny. The greenschist facies phase, associated with penetrative deformation in the cover and the influx of aqueous fluids, reset Sr isotopes in metasediments throughout the eclogite zone and cover schists, recording deformation and peak metamorphism at 28-30 Ma.The Peripheral Schieferhülle of the south-east Tauern Window yields Rb-Sr white mica ages which can be tied to the structural evolution of the metamorphic pile. Early prograde fabrics pre-date 31 Ma, and were reworked by the formation of the large north-east vergent Sonnblick fold structure at 28 Ma. Peak metamorphism post-dated this deformation, but by contrast to the equivalent levels in the central Tauern, peak metamorphic conditions did not lead to widespread homogenization of the Sr isotopes. Localized deformation continued into the cooling path until at least 23 Ma, partially or wholly resetting Sr white mica ages in some samples.These isotopic ages may be integrated with structural data in regional tectonic models, and may constrain changes in the style of crustal deformation and plate interaction. However, such interpretations must accommodate the demonstrable variation in thermal histories over small distances.

Notes: Acadian (Late Silurian to Early Devonian) metamorphism in the Central Maine Terrane (CMT) in central Massachusetts is characterized by an early low-P, high-T (Buchan-type) metamorphism followed by thickening at high temperature (〉650d̀ C) and then by cooling to 100-200d̀ C below peak recorded temperatures before eventual unroofing. Mineralogical and textural evidence for this path includes sillimanite pseudomorphs after early andalusite, abundant cordierite in pelitic lithologies, replacement of low-P cordierite-bearing assemblages by high-P garnet-bearing assemblages, and recrystallization of mylonites associated with late shear zones to form lower-T and higher-P assemblages. Peak conditions in the highest grade rocks were 685-780d̀ C and 5-6 kbar; the cooling path passed through 550d̀ C at about 6.5 kbar.The well-constrained P-T path documented from geological and mineralogical evidence for the CMT offers an unusual opportunity to examine characteristics of fluid inclusions that have experienced a long-lived metamorphic event spanning a broad range of P-T conditions. Fluid inclusion data from the CMT document a range of fluid compositions (CO2-rich, mixed CO2-N2-rich, N2-rich and H2O-rich) and densities during metamorphism. Densities of CO2 fluid inclusions range from 0.20 to 1.03 g cm-3. Medium-density CO2 fluid inclusions are contained in quartz inclusions within garnets in partial melt leucosomes, and in quartz grains within migmatites. Fluid inclusions within the quartz inclusions indicate trapping conditions of 650-700d̀ C at pressures below 5 kbar. Other CO2 fluid inclusions from matrix quartz yield isochores which pass through 700d̀ C and 5.2 kbar. The highest density inclusions associated with rocks containing the late high-P assemblages have isochores which pass below the estimated P-T conditions for recrystallization of the mylonite. Fluid inclusion evidence suggests an early low-P heating event, followed by thickening at high temperature, and then by nearly isobaric cooling to about 500d̀ C with later decompression. This interpretation is also consistent with previously published petrological models and supports an anticlockwise P-T path for the CMT of south-central Massachusetts.

Notes: Compositional maps of orthopyroxene and garnet of contrasting grain size and in contact with different minerals were made from two paragneiss granulites from the Minto terrane of northern Quebec. The compositional maps provide clear evidence of late exchange of Fe/(Fe + Mg) after Ca in garnet and Al in orthopyroxene had been quenched-in. The extent of late Fe-Mg exchange was controlled by neighbouring minerals, with negligible Fe-Mg gradients against plagioclase and quartz, and substantial gradients against exchangeable Fe-Mg minerals. Cores of grains in contact with exchangeable Fe-Mg neighbours are progressively more reset in Fe/(Fe + Mg) as grain size decreases, whereas cores of even small grains surrounded by only plagioclase and quartz are not significantly different in Fe/(Fe + Mg) than cores of the largest grains. Gradients of Ca in garnet and of Al in orthopyroxene in grains of uniform Fe/(Fe + Mg) preserve a high-temperature retrograde history during which intergranular exchange effected compositional uniformity of mineral rims and intragranular Fe-Mg diffusion in garnet and orthopyroxene was rapid enough to homogenize Fe/(Fe + Mg). The transition from efficient intergranular exchange at relatively high temperatures to local Fe-Mg exchange at lower temperatures may have been controlled by loss of an intergranular exchange medium in the rock, possibly an internally generated dehydration melt phase. Implications for geothermometry of granulites include the following (numerical values are particular to this study): (1) core compositions of garnet and orthopyroxene grains in contact with exchangeable neighbours may be reset in Fe/(Fe + Mg) relative to the most refractory compositions by an amount equivalent to 120d̀ C; (2) Fe-Mg exchange thermometry using even the most refractory Fe/(Fe + Mg) compositions may not record peak granulite conditions, possibly recording instead the temperature at which an intergranular exchange medium was lost from the rock; and (3) temperature-sensitive net transfer equilibria involving Al solubility in orthopyroxene yield temperatures up to 150d̀ C higher than maximum Fe-Mg exchange temperatures, even in grains with flat Fe/(Fe - Mg) compositional profiles, making them a better means of estimating peak granulite temperatures than Fe-Mg exchange thermometry.

Notes: P-T paths for a simple situation appropriate to many low-P, high-T (LPHT) terranes in which metamorphism and deformation are localized by advection of heat in magmas, has been modelled assuming a medium with a power-law rheology with an inverse exponential dependence of stress and temperature and capable of sustaining deviatoric stress, τ, in the order of 100 MPa at 400d̀ C and strain rates of up to 10-13s-1. Numerical simulations and analytical approximations for P-T histories appropriate for simple convergent deformation histories show that the destruction of the deviatoric stress field around large intrusions may result in significant decompression near the metamorphic temperature peak. Moreover, for a specified strain rate and temperature evolution, P-T paths may vary from clockwise to anticlockwise merely as a function of vertical distance from the heat source. Inasmuch as mounting independent evidence suggests that the crust can support deviatoric stresses of up to about 100 MPa at temperatures of 400-500d̀ C, and that the shear strength of the crust is strongly temperature-dependent in the range 400-800d̀ C, these results suggest that caution should be taken in the tectonic interpretation of P-T paths involving decompression of the order of 100 MPa or less in LPHT terranes. The results illustrate a plausible mechanism for the close spatial association of both clockwise and anticlockwise P-T paths documented in some LPHT terranes.

Notes: The north-west Turkish blueschists represent a subducted passive continental margin sequence dominated by metaclastic rocks and marble. The depositional age of the blueschist protoliths are probably Palaeozoic to Mesozoic, while the age of the high-pressure/low-temperature metamorphism is Late Cretaceous. Blueschists are tectonically overlain by a volcanosedimentary sequence made up of accreted oceanic crustal material that locally shows incipient blueschist metamorphism and by spinel peridotite slices.The metaclastic rocks with regional jadeite and glaucophane, which comprise the lower part of the blueschist unit, make up an over 1000-m-thick coherent sequence in the Kocasu region of north-west Turkey. Rare metabasic horizons in the upper parts of the metaclastic sequence with sodic amphibole + Iawsonite but no garnet indicate lawsonite blueschist facies metamorphism. The blueschist metaclastics in the Kocasu region are practically free of calcium and ferric iron and closely approximate the NFMASH system in bulk composition. Two low-variance mineral assemblages (with quartz and phengite) are jadeite + glaucophane + chlorite + paragonite and chloritoid + glaucophane + paragonite. The metaclastics comprise up to several-metres-thick layers of jadeite schist with quartz, phengite and nearly 100 mol% jadeite. Phase relations in the metaclastics show that the chloritoid + glaucophane assemblage, even in Fe2+-rich compositions, is stable in the jadeite stability field. In the NFASH system the above assemblage without the accompanying garnet has a narrow thermal stability field.Mineral equilibria in the metaclastics involving chloritoid, glaucophane, jadeite, paragonite and chlorite indicate metamorphic P-T conditions of 20 ± 2 kbar and 430 ± 30 d̀ C, yielding geothermal gradients close to 5d̀ C km-1, one of the lowest geotherms recorded. Blueschists in the Kocasu region, which have been buried to 70 km depth, are tectonically overlain by the volcanosedimentary sequence and by peridotite buried not deeper than 30 km.Phengites from two jadeite schists were dated by Ar/Ar laser probe; they give an age of 88.5 ± 0.5 Ma, interpreted as the age of metamorphism. Blueschists and the overlying peridotite bodies are intruded by 48-53-Ma-old granodiorite bodies that were emplaced at 10 km depth. This suggests that the exhumation of blueschists by underplating of cold continental crust, and normal faulting at the blueschist-peridotite, interface occurred during the Late Cretaceous to Palaeocene (88-53 Ma).

Notes: Greenschist facies rocks of the Poniklá Group (Ordovician-Silurian), Czech Republic, contain several types of carbonaceous matter that differ in their morphology, texture, reflectance and Raman characteristics.The first type consists of large (up to 3 mm) irregularly bound particles of low reflectance (Romin = 0.9%; Romax = 5.6%). The area ratio of the 1585 cm-1 to 1350 cm-1 Raman peaks (1.08–1.17) indicates an intermediate degree of graphitization. The formation of this type of highly porous particle, displaying a texture reminiscent of regular or needle coke, is attributed to the thermal alteration of the amorphous (structureless) kerogen of the precursor sediments.The second type consists of lamellar particles up to 30 μm thick, which can be associated with the latter or can occur independently in white mica-rich laminae. This type is characterized by high bireflectance (Romin = 0.6%; Romax = 11.9%) and by lower ratios (0.70–0.82) of the Raman peak areas. These particles are interpreted as the product of solid-state, diffusion-controlled graphitization of a chemically homogeneous organic material, e.g. of graptolite periderms.The third type consists of isometric, up to 2 mm large, commonly fractured grains and fragments which mainly occur in quartz-rich laminae. In reflected light, the texture is either homogeneous or consists of various types of anisotropic mozaics. The Raman peak area ratios (0.75–1.14) indicate a highly variable degree of structural ordering. These particles are considered as the remains of metamorphosed bitumens, accumulated in the sandy laminae of the original sediments.The fourth type consists of small particles of carbonaceous matter (maximum length 25 μm, thickness 1-2 μm), which occur adjacent to crystal faces of white micas. This type is probably the product of epitaxial growth of graphite from the gaseous phase.The results of this work indicate that the differences in the degree of graphitization of the carbonaceous matter in low-grade metamorphosed rocks can be mainly related to the initial nature of the sedimentary organic matter and to its premetamorphic history.

Notes: The Seiland Igneous Province of the North Norwegian Caledonides consists of a suite of deep-seated rift-related magmatic rocks emplaced into paragneisses during late Precambrian to Ordovician time. In the south-eastern part of the province, contact metamorphism of the paragneisses and later reworking of intrusives and associated contact aureoles have resulted in the development of three successive metamorphic stages. The contact metamorphic assemblage (M1) Opx + Grt + Qtz + Pl + Kfs + Hc + Ilm ± Crd is preserved in xenolithic rafts of paragneiss within metagabbro. Geothermobarometric calculations yield 930-960d̀ C and 5-6.5 kbar for the contact metamorphism. M1 was followed by cooling, accompanied by strong shearing, formation of the gneiss foliation and recrystallization at intermediate-P granulite facies conditions (M2). Stable M2 phases are Cpx + Opx + Pl +Ilm ± Hbl in metagabbro and Grt ± Sil ± Opx + Kfs + Qtz + Pl ± Bt + Ilm in host paragneiss. The M2 conditions are estimated to 700-750d̀ C and 5-7 kbar. A subsequent pressure increase is recorded in the M3 episode, which is associated with recrystallization in narrow ductile shear zones and secondary growth on M2 minerals. M3 is defined by the assemblages Grt + Cpx ± Opx + Pl + Ru + Qtz in metagabbro, and Grt ± Ky + Qtz + Pl ± Kfs + Bt + Ru in host paragneiss. M3 conditions are estimated to 650-700d̀ C and 8-10 kbar. The substantial pressure increase related to the M2 → M3 transition is interpreted to be a result of (early?) Caledonian overthrusting. Chemical zoning in cordierite and biotite suggest rapid cooling following the M3 event. The proposed P-T-t evolution implies that the tectonic evolution of the Seiland Igneous Province was long (at least 330 Ma) and complex and involved initial rifting and extension followed by crustal thickening and compression.

Notes: A sequence of at least three Al2SiO5-bearing mineral assemblages are preserved in successively overprinted ductile shear zones in the Willimantic window, Connecticut. The ductile deformation, localized at and near the boundary between the Putnam-Nashoba terrane and underlying Avalon terrane is characterized by a network of anastomozing shear zones that outline metre-scale tectonic blocks of migmatitic Kfs + Sil + Gt + Bi + Pg + Qtz + Ilm + Ru gneiss. These assemblages record Acadian or older metamorphic conditions of 6 kbar, 700d̀ C. Mylonitic gneisses in shear zones that define block margins were formed by reconstitution and recrystallization of the migmatitic gneiss. The reconstituted rocks exhibit relict Ky + St + Grt (+Pl + Bt + Qtz + Rt + Ilm) assemblages and require a minimum pressure for the Ky-Str grade metamorphism of 8.5 kbar. Kyanite in block margins is widely replaced by sillimanite, and locally by andalusite, during a period of post-Alleghanian ductile deformation. The interiors of blocks do not record this sequence of polymorphs. The pattern of reconstitution is accounted for by localization of strain along block margins within a regionally extensive terrane-bounding fault zone. Strain provided the activation energy for recrystallization and retrograde mineral reactions. The P-T conditions of post-Alleghanian ductile deformation evolved from 600d̀ C and 6 kbar to 550d̀ C and 3 kbar.The occurrence of Ky + Str-bearing assemblages, overprinting Acadian Kfs + Sil-bearing assemblages and subsequently overprinted by Alleghanian sillimanite- and andalusite-bearing assemblages, along with reset hornblende 40Ar/39 Ar mineral ages from Mississippian to Permian, requires a prograde Alleghanian metamorphism of rocks previously metamorphosed during the Acadian. Thus, mineral assemblages from gneisses in the Willimantic fault zone retain evidence of a protracted tectonothermal evolution that included high-grade Acadian orogenesis, tectonic loading resulting from Alleghanian collision of Avalon with North America, and tectonic exhumation in Permo-Triassic time. The c.3-kbar pressure decrease between prograde and retrograde Alleghanian metamorphic conditions corresponds to 10 km of crust that must have been tectonically excised from the base of the Putnam-Nashoba terrane cover sequence following Alleghanian orogenesis in south-eastern New England.

Notes: A breccia vein sampled from a shear zone in greenschist facies metapelites at Mount Isa, Queensland, Australia, shows a systematic variation in vein geometry that is related to the geometry of folding and faulting within the sample. Calcite vein-fill is coarse grained and equigranular, suggesting precipitation in a fluid-filled space. Partially folded veins suggest that veining occurred during folding and faulting. The breccia vein contains a central zone in which dilation has occurred simultaneously in all directions in the plane of section, implying that this was a zone of high fluid pressure and nearly isostatic differential stress during folding and faulting. From these observations, it can be inferred that the breccia vein was a zone of high permeability and a likely fluid channel during deformation. This hypothesis was tested by stable isotope analysis of veins and host rocks. The calcite veins have δ13C values of -11.1 ± 0.1% and δ18O values of 6-10%o, whereas the host metapelite has δ13C values of -10.62 and -10.11% and δ18O values of 14-15%o. These values are consistent with an igneous-derived, H2O-dominated fluid that exchanged little oxygen with the host rocks, but derived much of its carbon from the wall rock. The isotopic disequilibrium between the veins and the wall rock confirms that the fluid was externally derived, and that the breccia vein acted as a channel for large-volume fluid flow within the shear zone.

Notes: This paper describes the progressive metamorphism and deformation of a series of metasediments, Le Conquet Schists and their higher grade equivalents, which occur as tectonically emplaced screens within a sequence of foliated gneisses, the Gneiss de Brest and Gneiss de Lesneven. The sequence exhibits a steep south to north increase in metamorphic grade from garnet-staurolite schist to sillimanite gneiss and sillimanite-K-feldspar migmatite. The relationship of mineral growth to foliation development has been established for individual screens. At least five phases of deformation (D1-D5) are preserved. Analysis of porphyroblast inclusion trails is used to demonstrate sequential mineral growth during the successive development of orthogonal foliations S1-S4. Porphyroblasts continued to grow during the subsequent development of C-S mylonite fabrics and extensional crenulation cleavages which are genetically related to a series of high-strain zones (D5). Mineral assemblages, phase relations and mineral chemistry are consistent with porphyroblast growth being the result of continuous reactions. Microstructure-porphyroblast relations are used to show that although mineral growth proceeded during continuous reactions, these only operated episodically. Phase relations, mineral chemistry and P-T estimates are used to constrain P-T trajectories and these are linked to the deformation histories within individual screens. A comparison between the resulting pressure-temperature-deformation paths is used to demonstrate that the metamorphic peak occurred progressively later and at successively lower pressures with increasing metamorphic grade. It is suggested that the early evolution of the belt is the result of crustal thickening by overthrusting. The subsequent history is one of progressive heating and unroofing of the higher grade rocks in a dextral strike-slip transtensional shear zone.

Notes: Porphyroblast inclusion trails have the potential to provide critical information about tectonometamorphic events. Recently, however, traditional interpretations of inclusion trails have been called into question by the suggestions that porphyroblasts do not rotate during non-coaxial deformation and that apparent spiral inclusion trails can be generated in coaxial deformation. We present a new computer model that simulates inclusion trail development. Model results suggest: (1) that the extent of porphyroblast rotation is controlled by conditions at the porphyroblast-matrix boundary; (2) that curved inclusion trails may develop in unrotated porphyroblasts; (3) that classic “snowball” inclusion trails are most simply explained by rotational growth histories; and (4) that some of the observations used to support the view that porphyroblasts do not rotate (e.g. weakly sigmoidal inclusion trails, apparent truncations of inclusion trails) can be accounted for by variations in the growth rate of rotating porphyroblasts.

Notes: The feasibility of measuring soil salinity with electromagnetic induction (EM) for determining riparian restoration potential was investigated on a 28-hectare plot at the Bosque del Apache National Wildlife Refuge in central New Mexico. The plot was cleared of exotic Tamarix chinensis (saltcedar), surveyed and gridded into 1370.2 hectare sections. Soil samples and EM measurements were taken at each section. We compared laboratory-determined ECe values from the soil samples with ECa values calculated from the EM measurements using a model developed by Rhoades et al. (1990). Direct comparison of ECe values determined from the two methods yields a low correlation due to sample-size differences but the calculated ECa was able to accurately predict whether the measured ECe would lie above or below some threshold value. An assessment of general site suitability for riparian restoration with electromagnetic induction has proven to be a rapid, accurate, and cost-effective alternative to intensive soil sampling.

Notes: Extensive areas of the tropics have been converted into pasture for cattle ranching. Frequently, abandoned pasture does not revert to forest. The goal of this project was to identify barriers to lowland moist forest regeneration in highly degraded grasslands in the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta, Colombia. The barriers we considered were seed source, seed predation, competition with grasses, microclimate and soil limitations on plant growth, and fire. Seed dispersal into the grasslands is limited to within 10 meters of forest fragments, but this barrier can be overcome by sowing seeds and planting seedlings and by establishing perches to attract dispersers. In these degraded grasslands, seed predation was lower than in the adjacent forest patches, and there was no evidence that grasses inhibited the establishment of woody species. The most important barrier was the severe degradation of the soils. In much of the area, the A and B horizons have been eroded away, leaving saprolite at the soil surface. Seedlings of two fast-growing pioneer species, Ochroma pyramidale and Cochlospermum vitifolium, grew to a maximum height of only 2.5 and 12 cm, respectively, during the first eight months. The slow plant growth in the degraded grassland soils compared to forest soils was associated with lower levels of cation-exchange capacity, calcium, magnesium, and potassium. Even if these barriers could be overcome, the frequent and extensive use of fire in the region must be controlled to avoid killing established woody plants.

Notes: Biological resources can be more usefully incorporated into many aspects of restoration ecology. During the planning and design stage, the wide genotypic variation in natural plant populations must be recognized and exploited. This will ensure that genotypes used on a site are best adapted to local conditions and have a greater probability of survivorship than arbitrarily chosen material. Also, certain unusual genotypes can be located using the principles of evolutionary ecology and can be installed in areas with extreme conditions, such as soils contaminated with heavy metals, in areas where rapid colonizing ability (high seed set and/or clonal growth) is particularly advantageous, or where soils are of poor quality. Similarly, where high herbivore pressure is a threat to restoration, genotypes that are well defended, chemically or mechanically, against animal enemies should be selected to initiate the restoration process. The nursery industry can be encouraged to supply an ecologically wider selection of material for restoration, originating from local biological reserves and natural habitats. During the management phase of a restoration, local natural habitats are critical as reservoirs of biological control agents, seed sources for plant species, and members of higher trophic levels and additional plant species needed during succession. Mutualists such as pollinators, seed dispersers, and mycorrhizal fungi are vital to the success of a restoration project, and these must invade from nearby natural habitats or must be deliberately introduced. During the evaluation phase of restoration, local natural areas should be used as templates of community composition and structure from which one measures success. A functioning restoration project will interact biologically with surrounding areas, the exchange of species and genes being particularly important. Analysis of the microbial and invertebrate communities that have invaded the installed plant community may be useful and accurate determinants of ecological function. For these latter stages of the restoration process, the value of preserving local habitat remnants is high and complements their usefulness as a source of ecologically precise material for installation.

Notes: Community classification has emerged from ecology textbooks into the arena of environmental impact evaluation and mitigation. This development is especially apparent in southern California, where the fate of a community called coastal sage scrub is being decided. Regional plans for development, mitigation, preservation, and restoration are being formulated that will permanently affect the natural landscape. This paper demonstrates the potential for the name of a plant community to affect tradeoffs in planning processes that are intended to offset removal of habitat by development. The discussion focuses on two types of classification systems. One system is hierarchical, with established nomenclatorial rules that allow natural variation to refine the community definitions. Names of plant associations directly reflect the dominant species in the association, as in Artemisia californica—Eriogonum fasciculatum (California sagebrush—California buckwheat). The second system is nonhierarchical, in which observations of natural landscapes are fit into established definitions of community types, such as Diegan coastal sage scrub. Advantages and disadvantages of both types of systems are discussed and illustrated by two examples of problems in classifying coastal sage scrub. The discussion concludes with the point that the name of a community has the potential to significantly affect the extent to which equal tradeoffs between community types are actually achieved in mitigation and restoration efforts.

Notes: This article contributes to the worldwide trend of using microbiological methods for bioindication of the influence of abiotic, biotic, and anthropogenic factors on the soil environment, especially on the plough layer of soils. It compares two approaches to assess microbial biomass-C: (1) chemical treatment of soil samples by CHCl3 vapor, followed by extraction, and (2) heat treatment in the range of 62–65°C for 24 hours, followed by extraction. It recommends the analysis of different forms of organic carbon, the total carbon of soil organic mass, and microbial biomass-C and other forms of organic carbon extractable with 0.5 M K2SO4 and 0.5 M (NH4)2SO4 respectively. It presents a simple mathematical model suitable for assessment of microbial recuperation of the topsoil (0–15 cm) after restoration. The relation between the measured values and the values calculated with the model expressed as percentages expresses the quality of restoration achieved and the stage of disturbance of the living microbial part of the topsoil. It indicates not only the ecological impact but also the deficit and stress situations, to which the living microbial part of the topsoil is exposed in the long term.

Notes: Books reviewed in this article: Ecological Principles of Nature Conservation. L. Hansson, editor Saltmarsh Ecology. P. Adam

Notes: Within an urban park in southern California, the relationship between the structure and floristics of vegetation and the distribution, abundance, and behavior of wildlife was studied in relatively undisturbed areas (San Luis Rey) and in contiguous areas (Guajome Park) in need of restoration. These data were used to develop recommendations for the enhancement of native animal species in the park. The abundance of amphibians and reptiles was highest in native upland scrub and willow (Salix)-riparian vegetation types, and lowest in dry, disturbed sites. Western fence lizards (Sceloporus occidentalis) were the most abundant reptile throughout both study areas. Overall, bullfrogs (Rana catesbiana), an exotic species, were the dominant amphibians; the native Pacific treefrog (Hyla regilla) was rare throughout. At both study areas, the small mammal community was dominated by western harvest mice (Reithrodontomys megalotis) and deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) and, to a lesser extent, by brush mice (P. boylii) and exotic house mice (Mus musculus). Negative correlations in abundance existed between house mice and harvest mice, and between house mice abundance and overall small mammal abundance. In riparian sites, cottonwood (Populus fremontii) and various height classes of willow were the dominant factors in the majority of bird abundance–habitat‘correlations and where foraging activities were concentrated. Recommendations for enhancing native animal species include reduction of marsh sedimentation, removal of feral species, and development of connections between the park and nearby natural areas. A corridor of native riparian vegetation (primarily cottonwood-willow) should be developed to replace the existing agricultural fields, thereby linking Guajome with the San Luis Rey River.

Notes: Eight individual rock iguanas (Iguana pinguis) from Anegada Island were relocated to Guana Island by Lazell, 1984–1987, in order to establish a second population reservoir for this endangered species. The species may have originally occupied the entire Puerto Rico Bank. The relocation has been successful and, in the area currently providing the best habitat, we estimate a density of 9 or 12 animals of various age classes per 19 ha. The optimal area contains a sheep exclosure with relatively dense understory vegetation and numerous exotic as well as native species of plants. Iguana activity is concentrated on east facing slopes and ridge-tops that get morning sun. Outside the exclosure most edible ground cover and shrubs have been eaten by sheep, leaving toxic or noxious species, such as Croton or Lantana, in the understory where I. pinguis adults generally forage. Removal of sheep may be critical to continued population growth of these reptiles. Views on relocation or repatriation of other endangered Antillean Iguana species are advanced, with some ideas on minimum viable population sizes and a possible explanation for the extirpation of I. pinguis from much of its former range.

Notes: Books reviewed in this article: Functions of Nature Evaluation of Nature in Environmental Planning, Management and Decision Making. Rudolf S. de Groot Landscape Restorastion Handbook D. Harker, S. Evans, M. Evans, and K. Harker

Notes: While the economic approach to the politics of regulation emphasizes the importance of organized economic interests in shaping policies, political institutions in which regulatory agencies are embedded may also have significant effects. By including both economic influences and characteristics of political institutions in a model of price setting by state regulators, this paper demonstrates that both shape regulatory behavior in the telecommunications industry. Whether commissioners are elected or appointed, whether they face confirmation by a legislature, and whether a single party controls both executive and legislative branches of state governments influence the level of prices charged for basic services.