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  • Articles  (1,330)
  • Springer  (1,330)
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  • 1990  (1,330)
  • Geography  (885)
  • Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying  (581)
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  • Articles  (1,330)
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  • 1990-1994  (1,330)
  • 1975-1979
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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 27-41 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Groundwater monitoring networks ; Information reliability ; Information scales ; Kalman filtering in groundwater
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The extensive use of groundwater resources has increased the need for developing cost-effective monitoring networks to provide an indication of the degree to which the subsurface environment has been affected by human activities. This study presents a cost-effective approach to the design of groundwater flow monitoring networks. The groundwater network design is formulated with two problem formats: maximizing the statistical monitoring power for specified budget constraint and minimizing monitoring cost for statistical power requirement. The statistical monitoring power constraint is introduced with an information reliability threshold value. A branch and bound technique is employed to select the optimal solution from a discrete set of possible network alternatives. The method is tested to the design of groundwater flow monitoring problem in the Pomona County, California.
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  • 2
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 65-81 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Lagoons ; Ponds ; Facultative ; First-order kinetics ; Complete mixing ; Probabilistic ; Uncertainty ; Environmental ; Stochastic differential equations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Two stochastic models are developed to describe the BOD output (i.e. effluent) variation of facultative aerated lagoons in series. One of the models uses the uncertainty analysis (UA) technique and the other is based on the moment equation solution methodology of stochastic differential equations (SDE's). The former considers a second-order approximation of the expectation (SOAE) and a first-order approximation of the variance (FOAV). The SDE model considers that output variability is accounted for by random variations in the rate coefficient. Comparisons are provided. Calibration and verification of the two models are aciieved by using field observations from two different lagoon systems in series. The predictive performances of the two models are compared with each other and with another SDE model, presented in a previous paper, that considers input randomness. The three methods show similar predictive performances and provide good predictions of the mean and standard deviation of the lagoon effluent BOD concentrations and thus are considered as appropriate methodologies.
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  • 3
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 89-103 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: maximum precipitation depths ; extreme-value distributions ; seasonal variation ; partial duration series ; model misspecification
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Quantile estimates of the annual maximum distribution can be obtained by fitting theoretical distributions to the maxima in separate seasons, e.g. to the monthly maxima. In this paper, asymptotic expressions for the bias and the variance of such estimates are derived for the case that the seasonal maxima follow a Gumbel distribution. Results from these expressions are presented for a situation with no seasonal variation and for maximum precipitation depths at Uccle/Ukkel (Belgium). It is shown that the bias is often negligible and that the variance reduction by using seasonal maxima instead of just the annual maxima strongly depends on the seasonal variation in the data. A comparison is made between the asymptotic standard error of quantile estimates from monthlymaxima with those from a partial duration series. Much attention is paid to the effect of model misspecification on the resulting quantile estimates of the annual maximum distribution. The use of seasonal maxima should be viewed with caution when the upper tail of this distribution is of interest.
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  • 4
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 193-208 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Stochastic tidal modeling ; parameter identification ; model calibration
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract In this paper a parameter estimation algorithm is developed to estimate uncertain parameters in two dimensional shallow water flow models. Since in practice the open boundary conditions of these models are usually not known accurately, the uncertainty of these boundary conditions has to be taken into account to prevent that boundary errors are interpreted by the estimation procedure as parameter fluctuations. Therefore the open boundary conditions are embedded into a stochastic environment and a constant gain extended Kalman filter is employed to identify the state of the system. Defining a error functional that measures the differences between the filtered state of the system and the measurements, a quasi Newton method is employed to determine the minimum of this functional. To reduce the computational burden, the gradient of the criterium that is required using the quasi Newton method is determined by solving the adjoint system.
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  • 5
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 217-226 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Exponential distribution ; bivariate exponential distribution ; distribution of flood volume ; partial duration series
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A methodology based on the theory of stochastic processes is applied to the analysis of floods. The approach will be based on some results of the theory of extreme values over a threshold. In this paper, we focus on the estimation of the distribution of the flood volume in partial duration series analysis of flood phenomena, by using a bivariate exponential distribution of discharge exceedances and durations over a base level.
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  • 6
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 254-254 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
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  • 7
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 277-294 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Water distribution ; optimization ; nonlinear programming ; integer programming ; chance constraints ; rehabilation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents the mathematical development of an integer — nonlinear programming chance — constrained optimization model for the minimum cost rehabilitation/replacement of water distribution system components. Particular attention is given to the handling of uncertainties in the roughness factors and the loading conditions including both the random demand and preassure head requirements. The advantages of the proposed model include the ability to: 1) handle the optimal timing of rehabilitation/replacement for water distribution system components; 2) link a mixed-integer linear program solver, a nonlinear program solver, and a hydraulic simulator into an optimization framework; 3) handle the uncertainties of some of the variables; 4) incorporate various kinds of cost functions; and 5) handle multiple loading conditions.
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  • 8
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 309-320 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Entropy ; reliability ; redundancy ; water distribution networks ; nodal pair reliability
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Entropy based expressions for measurement of reliability and redundancy have recently been reported. These measures approach assessment of the reliability of the distribution network from the intrinsic redundancy of the network layout. The paper extends earlier work on entropy functions by including a more explicit statement of the alternate paths available in the network and by recognizing that under certain circumstances, e.g., failure of some part of the network work, an outflow link from a node under normal working condition may become an inflow link to the same node. The measures are assessed by comparison with parameters measuring Nodal Pair Reliability and percentage of flow supplied at adequate pressure for a range of networks and link failure conditions in this networks. The entropy measures are shown to reflect changes in the network reliability, as measured by these two comparative parameters, very well.
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  • 9
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 1-26 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Inverse ; calibration ; estimation ; groundwater flow
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The development of stochastic methods for groundwater flow representation has undergone enormous expansion in recent years. The calibration of groundwater models, the inverse problem, has lately received comparable attention especially and almost exclusively from the stochastic perspective. In this review we trace the evolution of the methods to date with a specific view toward identifying the most important issues involved in the usefulness of the approaches. The methods are critiqued regarding practical usefulness, and future directions for requisite study are discussed.
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  • 10
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 55-64 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Predictive distribution ; Bayesian approximation ; parameter uncertainty ; non-informative prior ; method of moments ; Gumbel distribution ; maximum likelihood estimates
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract In this paper Lindley's Bayesian approximation procedure is used to obtain the Bayes estimate of the probability of exceedence of a flood discharge. The Bayes estimates of the probability of exceedence has been shown by S.K. Sinha to be equivalent to the estimate of the probability of exceedence from the predictive or Bayesian disribution, of a future flood discharge. The evaluation of complex ratios of multiple integrals common in a Bayesian analysis is not necessary using Lindley's procedure. The Bayes estimates are compared to those obtained by the method of maximum likelihood and the method of moments. The results show that Bayes estimates of the probability of exceedence are larger as expected, but have smaller posterior standard deviations.
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  • 11
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 105-119 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Kalman filtering ; Optimal smoothing ; Shallow water equations ; Wind stress ; On-line prediction
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Using the state space approach, an on-line filter procedure for combined wind stress identification and tidal flow forecasting is developed. The stochastic dynamic approach is based on the linear twodimensional shallow water equations. Using a finite difference scheme, a system representation of the model is obtained. To account for uncertainties, the system is embedded into a stochastic environment. By employing a Kalman filter, the on-line measurements of the water-level available can be used to identify and predict the shallow water flow. Because it takes a certain time before a fluctuation in the wind stress can be noticed in the water-level measurements, an optimal fixed-lag smoother is used to identify the stress.
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  • 12
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 135-150 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Radar ; rainfall prediction ; real-time prediction
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A computational method for the determination of rainfall distribution for applications in short term rainfall prediction is presented here. The method is strongly influenced by the experience gained from the observation and analysis of data gathered on a heavy rainfall event in 1986 that occurred during the Baiu Season in Japan. The method is based on the concept that rainfall occurs as an interaction between an instability field, appropriately modeled, and a field of water vapor under the influence of topography. The results from this computational method showed good agreement with the temporal variation in the rainband that moved across the observation field in 1986. Towards determination of the parameters in the computational model, another method for the determination of the rainfield is also developed. This second method determines the rainfall distribution from estimation of the conversion rate of water vapor to liquid water through use of data from a three dimensional scanning radar. The results are consistent with those obtained from the first method.
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  • 13
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 151-160 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph ; Conceptual models ; Stochastic differential equations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Recognizing that simple watershed conceptual models such as the Nash cascade ofn equal linear reservoirs continue to be reasonable means to approximate the Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (IUH), it is natural to accept that random errors generated by climatological variability of data used in fitting an imprecise conceptual model will produce an IUH which is random itself. It is desirable to define the random properties of the IUH in a watershed in order to have a more realistic hydrologic application of this important function. Since in this case the IUH results from a series of differential equations where one or more of the uncertain parameters is treated in stochastic terms, then the statistical properties of the IUH are best described by the solution of the corresponding Stochastic Differential Equations (SDE's). This article attempts to present a methodology to derive the IUH in a small watershed by combining a classical conceptual model with the theory of SDE's. The procedure is illustrated with the application to the Middle Thames River, Ontario, Canada, and the model is verified by the comparison of the simulated statistical measures of the IUH with the corresponding observed ones with good agreement.
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  • 14
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 44 (1990), S. 167-194 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary Low-frequency modes of the monsoon are examined in the context of their radiation balance and diagnosed for the 13-month period between May 1979 and May 1980 using Earth radiation budget and cloud measurements taken by experiments carried on board the Nimbus-7 satellite. Simultaneous observations of the albedo, longwave radiation, absorbed shortwave radiation, and net radiation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), and the total cloud fraction and cloud-top temperature are considered. The use of broad-band radiation budget measurements permits a description of the observed longwave, shortwave, and net radiative energy exchange by the low-frequency modes. When wavenumber one fields are considered, the entire morphology of the 1979 summer monsoon (pre-onset, onset, break, re-intensification, and withdrawal) can be fully explained in terms of an eastward propagating mode. Ridge passages occurred over the Arabian Sea and India in June prior to onset, during the July break, and during the retreat of the monsoon. Trough passages occurred prior to the onset during a period of increased tropical cyclone activity, at the time of the onset, and immediately following the break. These low-frequency waves can be unambiguously tracked around the world over extended time periods. The latitudinal structure of the waves indicated that a thermally direct Hadley Cell perturbation propagated eastward with the oscillation. These cells were evident from extratropical extensions of the oscillation, each about 180° of longitude out-of-phase with the tropical oscillation. Because the absorbed shortwave and emitted longwave radrative components are in phase and of nearly identical amplitudes, the net radiative effect of the low-frequency mode is small in general. However, in certain latitudinal belts, the passage of the waves induced perturbations in the net radiation. Because longwave cloud-radiative forcing acts in the same direction as latent heat release, it is able to contribute to the diabatic energetics maintaining the structure and propagation of the eastward propagating 30- to 60-day waves. Between trough and ridge, the TOA longwave flux varies in a coherent manner by on the order of 50 to 60 Wm−2.
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  • 15
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 44 (1990), S. 153-165 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary The interannual variability of the monthly mean upper layer thickness for the central Arabian Sea (5°N-15° N and 60° E-70° E) from a numerical model of the Indian Ocean during the period 1954–1976 is investigated in relation to Indian monsoon rainfall variability. The variability in the surface structure of the Somali Current in the western Arabian Sea is also briefly discussed. It is found that these fields show a great deal of interannual variability that is correlated with variability in Indian monsoon rainfall. Model upper layer thickness (H) is taken as a surrogate variable for thermocline depth, which is assumed to be correlated with sea surface temperature. In general, during the period 1967 to 1974, which is a period of lower than normal monsoon rainfall, the upper ocean warm water sphere is thicker (deeper thermocline which implies warmer surface water); in contrast, during the period 1954–1966, which is a period of higher than normal monsoon rainfall, the upper warm water sphere is thinner (shallower thermocline which implies cooler surface water). The filtered time series of uppper layer thickness indieates the presence of a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) during the wet monsoon period, but this QBO signal is conspicuously absent during the dry monsoon period. Since model H primarily responds to wind stress curl, the interannual variability of the stress curl is investigated by means of an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The first three EOF modes represent more than 72% of the curl variance. The spatial patterns for these modes exhibit many elements of central Arabian Sea climatology. Features observed include the annual variation in the intensity of the summer monsoon ridge in the Arabian Sea and the annual zonal oscillation of the ridge during pre- and post-monsoon seasons. The time coefficients for the first EOF amplitude indicate the presence of a QBO during the wet monsoon period only, as seen in the ocean upper layer thickness. The variability in the model upper layer thickness is a passive response to variability in the wind field, or more specifically to variability in the Findlater Jet. When the winds are stronger, they drive stronger currents in the ocean and have stronger curl fields associated with them, driving stronger Ekman pumping. They transport more moisture from the southern hemisphere toward the Indian subcontinent, and they also drive a greater evaporative heat flux beneath the Findlater Jet in the Arabian Sea. It has been suggested that variability in the heat content of the Arabian Sea drives variability in Indian monsoon rainfall. The results of this study suggest that the opposite is true, that the northern Arabian Sea responds passively to variability in the monsoon system.
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  • 16
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary The role of organized tropical storms and typhoons within the West Pacific-Indian Ocean dipole of low frequency activity is examined with the aid of INSAT satellite observations. Two Asian summer monsoon seasons-1984 and 1987-are analyzed in conjunction with a satellite derived convective index. The former year was noted as an above average Indian monsoon; the latter year as an extreme Indian monsoon failure. The analysis demonstrates that the dipole region is actually an organized collection of seven smaller scale high amplitude, low frequency centers which blur together to form the semblance of a dipole which had been originally identified in 2.5° resolution outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) data derived from NOAA satellite measurements. The centers are basically situated over oceanic regions in the eastern and western sectors of the dipole, although, an isolated high amplitude center is also found over central Tibet. Of considerable interest is that the locations of the seven centers, whereas not equivalent, are very similar for both the 1984 and 1987 seasonsinar. The analysis indicates that there are coherent phase relationships between the eastern sector of the dipole and the western sector, but that it is not a simple dipole-like process. Rather, the four high amplitude centers, within the western sector, all fall within a longitudinal channel in which the well known, northward propagating behavior of Monsoon convection anomalies serves to modulate the east-west phase lag along the meridional channel. The result is that the western paelfic phase lags the equatorial Indian Ocean center whereas it generally phase leads the more northern centers within the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. In the two years studied here, there is little evidence of east-west propagation of anomalies between he two centers. The contribution of organized tropical storms and cyclones to the amplitude and phase characteristics of the high amplitude centers is irregular but important, particularly in the eastern sector of the dipole, where up to 50% of the variance can be explained by organized storms. It is also shown that the influence of storms on the phase propagation characteristics of convective anomalies is irregular but significant.
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  • 17
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 44 (1990), S. 219-250 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary In this paper we have studied the low frequency variability of the sensible and latent heat flux over the Indian monsoon area. We have used an atmospheric energy budget (vertical integrated heat sources and moisture sinks), as well as the similarity theory in order to compute the surface fluxes on a darly basis. Mainly, the three following data sets were used: the First GARP Global Experiment analyzed data, the TIROS-N outgoing longwave radiation data and the Monsoon Experiment precipitation data. Our three main findings are the following. First, the variability of the temperature and the specific humidity at the surface is more important over the land than over the sea on the intraseasonal time scale (30% over land, but 20% over sea). For the wind an energy peak appears clearly around 30–40 days. The surface fluxes show an uneven variance percentage field (10% to 40%); the energy peaks stretch from 10 to 40 days. Second, the wind has a significant influence on the surface fluxes, except at some locations exclusively over the land areas. Of the temperature and the specific humidity, the temperature is the one which influences the fluxes the most. (This influence may be very strong over land.) The specific humidity may have a significant influence, over the land and sea, at the same time. Thus, one cannot neglect the influence of temperature and specific humidity over land on the intraseasonal time scale. Third, we have found a close relation between the propagation of low frequency waves and the propagation of surface flux patterns. This may suggest a feedback mechanism which relates surface processes to the northward propagation of these waves over India.
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  • 18
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 44 (1990), S. 265-279 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary Using a General Circulation Model developed at FSU (FSUGCM), the role of the diabatic heating on the 30–60-day oscillation is investigated. To concentrate on the radiation and the moist convection processes, an aqua planet model is employed in this paper. We have obtained a 40-day oscillation with relatively lower frequency than other GCMs without strong heating in the lower troposphere. Unlike some GCMs and simple models, the convective area does not move eastward along with the oscillation. Adiabatic cooling due to the upward motion is mostly compensated by diabatic heating. This implies that Kelvin CISK theory might not explain our 40-day oscillation. We have also examined the impact of radiative heating on the low frequency oscillation. When we reduce the radiative cooling rate, our 40-day mode does not appear and a Kelvin CISK mode appears with a faster phase speed. The impact of the different convection schemes is also investigated. With an enhanced convection scheme, zonal wave number two with a 40-day period is generated.
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  • 19
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 44 (1990), S. 281-292 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary The present paper discusses the build-up, the air mass transformation and the propagation of the Siberian high as well as its relations to the development of cold surges in East Asia. It has been found that (1) the genesis and development of the Siberian high result from the combined effects of the mass convergence at middle and upper-level and the radiative cooling; (2) the apparent transformation of the Siberian high over land is observed in winter, which is caused by the upward sensible heat and latent heat flux from the underlying surface; (3) the Siberian high and its attendant cold air outbreaks usually undergo a marked low-frequency, southward propagation with the period of 10–20 days; (4) activity of cold surge over the East China Sea and the South China Sea is closely related to the intensity of the Siberian high. The active cold surge occurs when the Siberian high is usually strong.
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  • 20
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 44 (1990), S. 251-263 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary The Indian summer monsoon, one of the earth's most vigorous and energetic seasonally occurring weather events, influences the global atmospheric circulation. Its onset, duration, and intensity are governed by large- and meso-scale geophysical processes, such as surface solar heating and air-sea interactions. In this paper, using innovative combinations of satellite sensor data, we investigate some of these fundamental processes which are closely tied to clouds and control the monsoon system's evolution. The study, which focuses on the monsoon period of June, 1979, examines the low-frequency variability of clouds and their effects on air-sea processes through an analysis of the complex influence clouds play on the surface heat and water budgets. First, the effects of clouds on both the solar and longwave components of the surface radiation budget are assessed using a cloud radiative forcing parameter. While the effects of clouds on the long-wave irradiance act in a manner opposite to their effects on the shortwave irradiance, only a partial compensation is found to take place and the net effect results in a maximum cloud forcing of 60 Wm−2 in the southwestern Arabian Sea. Second, employing satellite-derived precipitation and evaporation estimates, the paper analyzes the net surface fresh water budget variability around the monsoon onset. This budget is important in that fresh water affects the upper ocean density distribution and, consequently, the thermohaline circulation. Two regions are found to dominate the analysis: the western Arabian Sea, where evaporation is dominant by more than 10 mm day−1, and the eastern Arabian Sea, where precipitation is dominant by more than 10 mm day−1. Thus, a strong zonal gradient of fresh water at the surface is established during the monsoon. The last topic investigated is the intraseasonal variability of convection as analyzed using a cloud parameter indicative of deep convection. Cloud oscillations of 30–50 days, associated with the different phases of the monsoon, are found to propagate northward in the eastern Indian Ocean and eastward in the Bay of Bengal. Our analysis not only supports the hypothesis that the 30–50-day oscillation is driven by deep convection but also, and more importantly, suggests that the ocean thermal forcing is modulated by 30–50-day oscillations through cloud-induced surface radiative forcing. Although the results presented are limited in scope and preliminary because of the diffculty in quantifying the accuracy of the parameters examined, they do demonstrate: 1) the role of clouds in modulating the surface heat and water budgets, 2) the advantage of using combinations of multi-sensor and multi-platform satellite observations to quantify interrelated surface heat/water budget processes, and 3) the potential to examine the intraseasonal variability of air-sea interaction processes associated with the monsoon, even though these processes are not directly measurable from space.
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  • 21
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 175-191 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Flow through porous media ; random network ; macro-permeability ; micro-geometry ; statistical mechanics ; anisotropy
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents an analysis of Hagen-Poiseulle flow through plane random anisotropic networks of interconnected channels. Macroscopic permeability tensor of the network is expressed in terms of statistico-geometrical characteristics like the degree of anisotropy in channel orientations, average co-ordination number of the network and first two moments of channel length distribution. Analytical results are illustrated and verified using numerical analysis of flow in a simulated random network. The emphasis of the paper is on the effects of anisotropy on distributions of flow rates in channels. It is shown that, due to anisotropy the maximum flow rate generally occurs in channels that are not aligned along the direction of the macroscopic pressure gradient.
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  • 22
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 253-254 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
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  • 23
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 241-251 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Sedimentation ; Large Reservoirs ; Markov Chains
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Sediment deposition and its accumulation in a large resorvoir depends on the inflow and reservoir storage content, respectively. Because of this fact it is possible to model the cumulative deposition of sediment as an additive process defined on a bivariate Markov chain. Using the bivariate Markov chain model the mean and variance of the cumulative deposition of John Martin Reservoir, Colorado, U.S.A. are estimated and compared with observed sedimentation data.
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  • 24
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 295-308 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Risk-based design ; uncertainty analysis ; hydraulic design ; bridge ; culvert
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract For a proposed highway bridge or culvert, the total cost to the public during its expected service life includes capital investment on the structures, regular operation and maintenance costs, and various flood related costs. The flood related damage costs include items such as replacement and repair costs of the highway bridge or culvert, flood plain property damage costs, users costs from traffic interruptions and detours, and others. As the design discharge increases, the required capital investment increases but the corresponding flood related damage costs decrease. Hydraulic design of a bridge or culvert using a riskbased approach is to choose among the alternatives the one associated with the least total expected cost. In this paper, the risk-based design procedure is applied to pipe culvert design. The effect of the hydrologic uncertainties such as sample size and type of flood distribution model on the optimal culvert design parameters including design return period and total expected cost are examined in this paper.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 255-276 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Stochastic hydrologic process ; daily discharges ; correlated generation ; simulation
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A geomorphological study at the confluence of the Danube and the Isar in Bavaria required long series of daily discharges in both rivers. A model that generates simultaneous correlated streamflows in both rivers was developed and tested. The model is a modified shot noise model, first developed by Treiber (1975) for a single river, that was adapted to two rivers. It generates correlated pulses of events that produce flow for each river, and these pulses are then convoluted with a river specific systems function. The model, after being calibrated for the two rivers on the basis of 85 years of records, yields artificial series of discharges, in which the statistical properties of the historical records are reproduced. The performance of the model was tested with 20 generated series each 100 years long.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 321-321 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 43-53 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Missing data ; Interpolation in hydrology ; Multichannel precipitation time series ; Spectral analysis
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The accuracy of an optimum interpolation technique in filling missing values in multichannel (or multisite) hydrologic series containing time-coincident data gaps is examined. The applied methodology is based on the maximum entropy method (MEM) of spectral estimation or multivariate autoregressive modeling and heavily depends upon the properties of multichannel prediction error filter (PEF). Six precipitation time series spatially located within a hydrologic basin are used and time-coincident artificial gaps are created in all six series. The performance of the technique is assessed by comparing the filled-in series to the observed and by employing spectral analysis. The results reveal the usefulness of the method in multichannel hydrologic analysis.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 83-88 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 121-134 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Hydrologic time series ; Linearity ; Gaussianity ; Hinich's test
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Although the non-Gaussian nature of many hydrologic time series is well recognized and their nonlinearity is suspected, neither property is well tested. This situation has existed partly because of a lack of appropriate tests. Recently Hinich (1982) has developed a test to test the linearity of time series which is based on the bispectral characteristics of the series. This test is used in this study to investigate the linearity and non-Gaussian characteristics of annual and daily rainfall and runoff series. The annual series may be modeled by linear models with Gaussian inputs. The daily data, on the other hand, often demonstrate nonlinear characteristics and are non-Gaussian as well.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 161-174 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: advection-diffusion equation ; random walk model ; random flight model ; stochastic differential equation ; Fokker-Planck equation
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A random walk model to describe the dispersion of pollutants in shallow water is developed. By deriving the Fokker-Planck equation, the model is shown to be consistent with the two-dimensional advection-diffusion equation with space-varying dispersion coefficient and water depth. To improve the behaviour of the model shortly after the deployment of the pollutant, a random flight model is developed too. It is shown that over long simulation periods, this model is again consistent with the advection-diffusion equation. The various numerical aspects of the implementation of the stochastic models are discussed and finally a realistic application to predict the dispersion of a pollutant in the Eastern Scheldt estuary is described.
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 51-74 
    ISSN: 1572-8099
    Keywords: Mine fire stoppings ; flame passage ; smoke passage ; concrete stoppings ; steel stoppings ; mine fire simulation ; Bruceton Experimental Mine
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying
    Notes: Abstract The U.S. Bureau of Mines constructed a facility in the multiple-entry section of its Bruceton Experimental Mine to evaluate the fire endurance of mine stoppings. The test stopping (up to 6 ft high by 18 ft wide) is subjected to a 70 min, 75,000 Btu/min liquid fuel tray fire. The stopping and adjacent areas are instrumented with thermocouples and heat flux gauges. Two 8 in. thick concrete block stoppings and a galvanized steel stopping were evaluated in four tests. A crack developed on the fire-exposed surface of both block stoppings where the flames were most intense. However, the unexposed surface of the stoppings was undamaged and its maximum temperature was about 80°C. The steel stopping retained its structural integrity during the test. The temperature of the unexposed steel surface reached 490°C, but combustible materials located 1 ft from the surface did not ignite. Heat energy transmitted across the steel stopping was approximately halved when a 3/4 in. thick coating of construction plaster was applied to its fire-exposed surface. All stoppings prevented the passage of flame and smoke.
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 75-81 
    ISSN: 1572-8099
    Keywords: Air leakage ; door assemblies ; door seals ; laminar flow ; pressure drop ; smoke control
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying
    Notes: Abstract A generalized, nondimensional relationship for flow through defined narrow gaps is used to predict leakage flow past closed door assemblies. Typical gap shapes considered include straight-through; single or double sharp (90°) bends; baffle at leading edge; comb-type labyrinth; and filament brush seal. Applications for prediction and design appropriate to smoke control systems are indicated.
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 97-98 
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 94-96 
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 99-105 
    ISSN: 1572-8099
    Keywords: Fire plume ; flashover ; fire modeling ; conservation concepts ; oxygen factor
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 106-120 
    ISSN: 1572-8099
    Keywords: Roof vents ; wind flows ; buoyancy ; convection ; gases
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying
    Notes: Abstract Natural convection roof vents are widely used in industrial and other buildings for clearing smoke and toxic gases produced by fires and explosions. In the design of such vents where hot gases are driven out by pressure differences, it has been a common practice to ignore the effects of outside wind. Buoyancy is assumed to be the only driving force. This paper shows that under certain wind conditions the effects of wind can completely override buoyancy, causing either flow reversal or inefficient extraction. A new design method, based on wind tunnel measurements, is proposed by which the effects of wind can be taken into account. A worked example is presented to illustrate the method.
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 149-155 
    ISSN: 1572-8099
    Keywords: fires ; life safety ; codes ; large buildings ; human behavior ; evacuation
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying
    Notes: Abstract In recent years research into human behavior in fires has been carried out in several countries for improving provisions for life safety currently prescribed in firesafety codes. This technical note reviews briefly the findings of human behavior studies in the United Kingdom with particular reference to buildings with a large number of people at risk. According to one of the main conclusions of this paper, for successful evacuation, early detection should be followed by timely and convincing communication to building occupants information about the existence, location, and spread of fire. This can be achieved by computer-based informative fire warning systems, which is the subject matter of another technical note.
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 141-148 
    ISSN: 1572-8099
    Keywords: asphyxiation ; antidote ; cyanide ; fire hazard ; polyacrylonitrile ; polyurethane ; pyrolysis ; urea-formaldehyde
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying
    Notes: Abstract The insidious accumulation of hydrogen cyanide from smouldering fires in dwellings to levels that render victims unconscious and facilitate intoxication by carbon monoxide by increasing the ventilation rate may occur more frequently at the present time through the mounting trend toward the use of cheap synthetic materials in building construction and house furnishings. Although in many cases fatalities appear to be due primarily to carbon monoxide, the proportion of deaths in which cyanide intoxication is a decisive contributory factor may have been underestimated. In the circumstances of an emergency the possibility of extensive exposure to cyanide cannot be excluded. Treatment of all fire victims overcome by toxic fumes with an innocuous cyanide antidote immediately upon removal from the affected premises therefore appears necessary.
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    ISSN: 1572-8099
    Keywords: Halons ; SF6 ; simulants
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    Notes: Abstract All new and retrofit installations of Halon 1301 total flooding fire protection systems in U.S. Navy shipboard machinery spaces require an acceptance discharge test. The primary reason for this testing is the verification of system design and performance (discharge time, initial concentration, maintenance of concentration, etc.). It is desirable to use a simulant instead of Halon 1301 in these tests in view of its contribution to stratospheric ozone depletion. Two candidate simulants, sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) and chlorodifluoromethane (R-22 or Halon 121), were evaluated on the basis of flow through the piping networks of both modular and banked systems. Two modular systems, with differing fill densities, and six banked systems, varying in complexity from a two-nozzle balanced system to a four-nozzle unbalanced system, were used in this evaluation. Sulfur hexafluoride was found to discharge at a similar rate to Halon 1301 while R-22 was found to discharge at a faster rate. The division of flow between branches in the piping networks were similar for both simulants and Halon 1301. Together with previous work on leakage from an enclosure and initial mixing, these tests have shown that sulfur hexafluoride is an excellent simulant for Halon 1301 in acceptance discharge tests of total flooding fire protection systems. These conclusions will need to be confirmed in full-scale tests. The material presented here is extracted from a longer report that is available from the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375.
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 342-356 
    ISSN: 1572-8099
    Keywords: Fire ; alarm ; sound ; location ; apartment ; awake ; minimum ; level
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    Notes: Abstract Measurements on the alarm sound distribution in nine apartment buildings showed that if adequate awakening potential is to be provided for sleeping residents, an alarm sounding device must be located within each apartment. Information on the minimum sound level necessary to awaken such a sleeping person is also given. A procedure that can be used to determine sound attenuation within apartment buildings is presented. Examples to demonstrate such a procedure are provided.
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 85-93 
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 193-194 
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 195-201 
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 223-243 
    ISSN: 1572-8099
    Keywords: Smoke management ; hazard parameters ; visibility ; carbon monoxide concentration ; temperature rise
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying
    Notes: Abstract This paper provides an overview of the principal design considerations of smoke management systems for covered malls and atria included in a recently proposed technical guide. The engineering basis for formulating an appropriate design for a smoke management system is presented in the form of algebraic equations and graphs. Techniques to assess the level of life hazard created by a fire in an atrium or covered mall with a smoke management system are discussed. The level of life hazard is expressed in terms of the following hazard parameters: smoke layer depth; visibility through the smoke layer; and the carbon monoxide concentration and temperature rise in the smoke layer.
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 244-265 
    ISSN: 1572-8099
    Keywords: Fire plumes ; ceiling jets ; detection ; suppression ; response time
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying
    Notes: Abstract The effectiveness of fire detection systems and fire mitigation strategies can be related to three distinct time lags associated with building fires: a transport time lag, a detection time lag, and a suppression time lag. The impacts of these lag periods on fire detection and suppression are developed. Transport lag periods are considered in terms of available correlations of fire plume and ceiling jet data, detection lag periods in terms of available heat detector response models that use these data correlations. Suppression lags are developed in terms of expected response times for automatic and manual suppression. Example calculations are presented.
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    ISSN: 1572-8099
    Keywords: NFPA 1971 ; turnout gear ; fire fighters' safety ; clothing performance
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    Notes: Abstract Seven experimental fires varying in fire load were conducted in a simulated townhouse. Specimens of various current fire fighters turnout coat materials were exposed in the room of fire origin. The time at which conditions would become untenable for the fire fighter due to pain, as well as the time to second degree burn, were calculated. These times ranked the coat specimens in roughly the same order as the “Thermal Protection Performance” measured according to NFPA 1971–1986, especially if the heat in the room developed rapidly.
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 281-284 
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 285-288 
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 266-280 
    ISSN: 1572-8099
    Keywords: National Fire Code Canada ; dangerous goods in buildings ; document revision
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    Notes: Abstract The 1990 edition of the National Fire Code (NFC) of Canada contains new requirements to regulate storage of “dangerous goods” in buildings. In Canada, “dangerous goods” are defined by the Transportation of Dangerous Goods Regulations as explosives, compressed gases, flammable liquids, flammable solids, oxidizing substances, poisonous and infectious substances, radioactive materials, corrosive substances, and miscellaneous environmentally dangerous substances. The new Fire Code regulations will apply to storage and handling of these products when they are kept in buildings, where they are no longer under the control of transportation legislation. This paper describes the process by which the Canadian National Fire Code was recently revised to address problems created when fires occur in buildings storing dangerous goods. Problems include the increased hazard to the surrounding community because of toxic smoke, runoff of contaminated fire-fighting water, and delays to normal fire-fighting operations. Key ideas that evolved as part of committee deliberations, such as the rationale for regulating products that were not previously considered to be a fire hazard, are described.
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 289-289 
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 290-309 
    ISSN: 1572-8099
    Keywords: Diesel engine ; railcar ; railroad ; fire ; fire investigation
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    Notes: Abstract A fire broke out on a diesel railcar while running on a line of the Japan Railways Group. After an exhaustive investigation into the cause of the fire, it was found that the origin had been the lubricating oil of the engine. The lubricating oil vaporized from a long idling engine while the car was standing and accumulated in the exhaust silencer in considerable amounts. When the car was climbing up a long slope, the oil was exposed to a high-temperature exhaust gas and ignited. The flame attacked and melted the exhaust funnel, and eventually caused a fire.
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 310-328 
    ISSN: 1572-8099
    Keywords: Fires ; critical temperature ; beam ; steel
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    Notes: Abstract The methodology of defining safety of constructions in fire has not yet been sufficiently verified and agreed upon. This paper includes calculation results for steel beams, which prove that the ultimate load-bearing capacity predicted by plastic design theory, which is valid in engineering calculations, is not sufficient for determining the critical temperature. The reason is that this temperature tends to be limited in some cases by large deflections of beams in fire.
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 329-341 
    ISSN: 1572-8099
    Keywords: Fire retardant intumescent coatings ; smoke generation ; water repellency ; adhesion
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    Notes: Abstract A few fire retardant intumescent coatings based on ammonium phosphate, cyanoguanidine, 2- 2 bis hydroxymethyl 1,3-propanediol (polyol), and a binder (a copolymer of vinyl acetate acrylate copolymer emulsion and an amino resin) have been developed for wood and wood-based products. The fire performance of the coatings has been evaluated employing differing BS and ASTM standards. On exposure, the coated specimens neither show any surface spread of flame nor any afterglow combustion. The coatings are found to be quite effective in reducing smoke generation, and they possess good water repellency and adhesion.
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 376-377 
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 378-379 
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 357-375 
    ISSN: 1572-8099
    Keywords: Fire spread ; exterior walls ; combustible materials ; new test methods
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying
    Notes: Abstract A segment of the on-going research program on fire spread via exterior walls conducted at the Institute for Research in Construction of the National Research Council of Canada is described. The research includes full-scale experimental studies of fire exposure to exterior walls, fire hazards associated with the use of combustible materials, and the development of new test methods for assessing the flammability of combustible cladding. Correlations between the results of a new full-scale test and standard flame spread tests (Steiner tunnel test, radiant panel test, roof deck test) were investigated. A prototype of a reduced-scale test, the vertical channel test, is described. It was found that, at present, the full-scale test is the most appropriate method to evaluate the fire hazards of combustible wall assemblies.
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 380-380 
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 1-2 
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 3-4 
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 41-50 
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    Keywords: AFFF ; NFPA 11 ; foam concentration ; conductivity ; refractive index
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    Notes: Abstract Three types of foam concentration measurement techniques are examined: total fluorine content, optical absorption, and specific conductivity. Specific conductivity was found to be the most useful for field measurements and was therefore compared with the traditional refractive index approach. It was found that electrical conductance provides a more accurate method of estimating the concentration of AFFF solution than does the refractive index technique described in NFPA 11.
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 15-40 
    ISSN: 1572-8099
    Keywords: Fire modeling ; hazard calculation ; expert systems ; occupant evacuation ; firesafety
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying
    Notes: Abstract The first version of a method for predicting the hazards to occupants involved in a building fire is described. The method and available computer software, called HAZARDI, can predict the time varying environment within a building resulting from a specified fire; the locations and actions of occupants; and the impact of the exposure of each of the occupants to the fire products in terms of whether the occupants successfully escape, are incapacitated, or are killed.
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 5-14 
    ISSN: 1572-8099
    Keywords: Firesafety ; computer codes ; modeling ; fire standards
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    Notes: Abstract In the twenty-five years sinceFire Technology first appeared, the idea that a greater detailed quantitative understanding of fire phenomena will lead eventually to a more firesafe environment has received wide acceptance. The question is no longer “Are fundamental studies of fire science worthwhile?” but rather “What are the priorities?” “Just how is the new knowledge best used?” “What accuracy and detail are needed?” and “By what techniques are the new methods to be evaluated and approved?” This paper briefly presents a vista of twenty years of progress, introduces some detail on each of the above problems, and concludes with a vision of the future of firesafety engineering.
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 82-84 
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 186-190 
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 156-168 
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    Keywords: Heat flux ; radiant strip heater ; liquid surface motion
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    Notes: Abstract In order to create and to study the effects of liquid surface motion, a radiant strip heater which consisted of a heated rod at the focal point of a parabolic mirror was designed. Several configurations were analyzed to determine the appropriate design for a heater and it was experimentally proven that a heater with eight heated rods placed in an encasement can provide a nearly uniform heat flux on a fuel surface with magnitude varying with vertical distance. Using a heat flux gauge at various horizontal locations at a specific vertical location, the ratio of measured heat flux between the center and the outer edge of the heater was found not to exceed 1.10.
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 191-192 
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 169-177 
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    Fire technology 26 (1990), S. 178-185 
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    Transportation 17 (1990), S. 49-66 
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    Keywords: airline ; Beta ; capital market ; deregulation ; systematic risk
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    Notes: Abstract Deregulation of U.S. Airline Industry may have lowered systematic risk because pricing freedom and route flexibility improved airline management reaction to various economic conditions. Reduced systematic risk offers lower cost of equity capital for the industry as a whole as well as for individual carriers. Previous research has had mixed results in identifying a relationship between deregulation and airline industry cost of capital. This study plots airline industry Beta coefficients across the years 1963 to 1987 and clears up previously conflicting research findings. Beta coefficients had been falling since the fuel crisis of 1974 and continued to fall through 1980. Fluctuations since deregulation have been relatively minor and systematic risk has leveled off at a significantly lower value than before deregulation. Studies which concentrate on the fluctuation in Beta since 1978 are dependent on the exact time period of analysis, and their conclusions that deregulation raised or lowered systematic risk are likewise suspect. A broader view of systematic risk changes in the deregulatory era shows airline Betas peaking from 1971 to 1973 and a gradual decrease as deregulation was being discussed, implemented, and legally mandated. This gradual decline from 1974 to 1980 may be attributed to such factors as fuel prices, interest rates, general inflation as well as deregulation. In any case systematic risk of the U.S. Airline industry has been lower since deregulation than in decades before.
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    Transportation 17 (1990), S. 89-91 
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    Transportation 17 (1990), S. 141-157 
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    Keywords: mode choice ; parking ; transportation demand management ; travel behavior
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    Notes: Abstract This article reviews empirical studies of how employer-paid parking affects employees' travel choices. A strong effect is found: parking subsidies greatly increase solo driving. When employers reduce or remove parking subsidies, a significant number of solo drivers shift to carpools and/or transit. This conclusion is based on studies of parking subsidies in a variety of circumstances, including central city and suburban areas, private and public employers, and clerical and professional employees. Three measures are developed to compare changes in commute patterns: changes in the share of solo drivers. changes in the number of autos driven to work per 100 employees, and the parking price elasticity of demand for solo driving. The studies reviewed here show that 19 to 81 percent fewer employees drive to work alone when they pay for their own parking. Because 90 percent of American commuters who drive to work receive employer-paid parking, these findings are significant for designing transportation policies to reduce air pollution, traffic congestion, and energy consumption.
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    Transportation 17 (1990), S. 213-214 
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    Transportation 17 (1990), S. 215-229 
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    Keywords: behaviour ; decision process ; development ; driver information ; technology
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    Notes: Abstract Initially the driver's role as a link in the driver-vehicle-road-traffic control-chain is discussed in a historical perspective. The gradual changes and the advantages and problems arising from these changes are discussed from behavioural point of view. Then the driver tasks are analyzed. A separation is made between trip planning, navigation, road following, traffic interaction, rule compliance, other than traffic tasks, car handling and speed choice. The relations between and the weights of these subtasks are discussed. Some existing driver behaviour models are reviewed in relation to the above mentioned tasks. Finally an effort is made based on the analyses of driver tasks and driver models to specify some general and some more specific potential advantages and problems with expected future RTI-systems.
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    Transportation 17 (1990), S. 231-237 
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    Keywords: scenario ; road traffic ; informatics ; road services ; integrated road transport environment
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    Notes: Abstract Road Transport Informatics is being developed to improve road transport. Telecommunication links will connect microcomputers in vehicles with roadside beacons and traffic control centers. Drivers can get better information and guidance en route. If these functions are charged as services rather than sold as products, a better traffic can be obtained. This can improve traffic safety, efficiency and the environment.
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    Transportation 17 (1990), S. 239-250 
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    Keywords: future vehicles ; technology ; microprocessors ; route guidance ; vehicle communications ; transport informatics ; electronic tagging ; driver information ; on-board systems
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    Notes: Abstract The paper reviews the current situation on-board microprocessor applications. It first describes the aspects of vehicle technology and performance that are the focus for on-board computing equipment, from engine management systems through to fully intergrated driver decision support. In the second section a wider perspective is taken by examining the interaction of the vehicle and its environment. The third and final section of the paper considers elements of communication which permit extensive transmission of vehicle and journey data for public and private use. The conclusion identifies factors which will influence the speed with which further applications will be adopted.
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    Transportation 17 (1990), S. 251-262 
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    Keywords: Intelligent Vehicle-Highway Systems ; route guidance ; automobile navigation ; automatic vehicle identification
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    Notes: Abstract Driver information systems (DIS) are considered in North America as a major category of Intelligent Vehicle-Highway Systems (IVHS), which offers to improve the efficiency and safety of driving by means of an amalgamation of information technology with vehicle and highway technologies. Traditionally North America has basic strengths in a number of information technologies that are relevant to DIS. Due to a hiatus in federal funding in the early 1980s, DIS development in North America during the past decade has emphasized autonomous systems on the vehicles until recently. The current acceleration of IVHS development in the United States has resulted from a number of converging forces and has provided the impetus for developing advanced driver information systems (ADIS) that integrates the vehicle and the highway. Large-scale demonstration and implementation of ADIS will hinge on the major legislations in the near future, and on the successful development of public-private sector partnerships in IVHS.
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    Transportation 17 (1990), S. 263-284 
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    Keywords: digital road map data base ; mobile digital communication ; navigation ; route guidance ; traffic information ; traffic management
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying
    Notes: Abstract A perspective view of of Japanese R&D activities of Driver Information Systems is given from the standpoint of developing joint projects by public and private sectors. First, a brief history of the R&D activities is illustrated from above mentioned standpoint. Then, two major projects, AMTICS and RACS, and the social backgrounds of these projects are explained. In order to give a clear idea of both projects some technical details are treated. Based on the history and the present status of the developments, the basic design conceptions of Japanese Driver Information Systems are explained and several factors or reasons which have influenced to the design conception are discussed. Then, the promoting systems of the R&D activities are generally explained and present status of the projects and future problems in developing more advanced systems are also handled. A brief discussion on the establishment of international standard is also mentioned as a final comment.
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    Transportation 17 (1990), S. 285-299 
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    Keywords: automatic debiting ; functional requirements ; integrated road transport environment (IRTE) ; intelligent vehicle/highway systems (IVHS) ; road transport informatics (RTI) ; route guidance
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying
    Notes: Abstract This chapter discusses the potential for co-ordinating developments in Road Transport Informatics (RTI) in what could otherwise be a number of fragmented approaches, in order to approach what the DRIVE programme calls the “Integrated Road Transport Environment” (IRTE). The discussion is presented with particular reference to European developments such as the PROMETHEUS and DRIVE research programmes, but is intended to encompass possible progress towards worldwide standardisation. The role of consensus formation in Europe in the DRIVE projects SECFO and TARDIS is described. The importance of dynamic route guidance and of automatic debiting systems are highlighted in identifying the likely impetus towards the implementation of RTI systems. Finally, some outstanding issues are presented briefly, and the possible emergence of international standards leading to compatible systems worldwide is discussed.
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    Transportation 17 (1990), S. 329-329 
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    Transportation 17 (1990), S. 331-331 
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    Transportation 17 (1990), S. 313-328 
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    Keywords: telematics ; RTI ; RDS ; CEN ; EC ; CEPT
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    Notes: Abstract Advances in information technology and telecommunications are opening up the possibility of transforming the capture, application and dissemination of information on transport operations and road traffic, at the same time as growing congestion makes accurate and timely information more valuable than ever to users and managers. Because of open access to road networks, public authorities are bound to intervene in the field of travel information: in the provision of infrastructure, the handling of the information, the licensing of services, and the regulation of users affecting safety or social well-being. The paper discusses these rôles and the levels at which they may be exercised, with particular reference to standardisation issues in Europe and internationally.
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    Transportation 17 (1990), S. 301-312 
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    Keywords: information analysis ; road network database ; standarization
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    Notes: Abstract Many Driver Information Systems, especially those that provide location information and route guidance instruction, rely on some form of digital map data, i.e. data that represent the location and other properties of earth-bound objects. A deeperinformation analysis of the data needs of the systems reveals that many needs are very close to the demands that a human navigator makes on a classical paper map. But it also reveals some hidden needs, which relate to the fact that the current Driver Information Systems have only a very poor or no general knowledge. Gathering all these data, putting them into a database and keeping them up to date is an enormous task. Therefore it is very important to know whatsurveying and digitizing techniques are the most suitable for such data. This question is currently being investigated by two DRIVE projects, PANDORA and Task Force EDRM. To guarantee the efficiency of a road network database and to guarantee the exchangeability of traffic messages, a certainstandardization will be inevitable. One possibility is to standardize the finished article, i.e. the map data in the form in which they are represented on the medium used by the system itself (e.g. CD, coded beacon message). This is the solution that has been chosen in Japan, where a CD-ROM based standard has been defined. It is also the solution chosen by the European manufacturers of beacon-supported systems such as Autoguide and LISB, who have defined a standard for the road-vehicle communication link. Another possibility is to standardize the semi-manufactured article, i.e. the map data as they occur in a general purpose road database or in the datafiles produced by data suppliers. This solution has been chosen by Bosch and Philips and had led to their GDF, in which they define a standard data content, a data model and an exhange format for these files. If the systems are going to combine data coming from different sources, the need arises for standard reference numbers. This means that an organizational infrastructure will have to be set up to create and maintain such a reference numbering system. A road database that is kept up to date, represents a lot of money. It will be vitally important for such databases to be legally protected against copying activities.
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    Transportation 17 (1990), S. 343-354 
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    Transportation 17 (1990), S. 333-334 
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    Transportation 17 (1990), S. 335-342 
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    Transportation 17 (1990), S. 355-356 
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    Transportation 17 (1990), S. 357-374 
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    Transportation 17 (1990), S. 389-390 
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    Transportation 17 (1990), S. 375-387 
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    Transportation 17 (1990), S. 391-395 
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    Transportation 17 (1990), S. 67-88 
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    Keywords: BART ; economic development ; land use ; METRO ; rapid transit
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying
    Notes: Abstract Land use change in some form is cited by both supporters and critics of rapid transit deployment. This paper examines and categorizes land use around twenty stations located in suburban Washington, D.C. and San Francisco/Oakland through the use of aerial photographs and field investigations. As a case study of local economic development, it documents the land use pattern associated with two modern heavy rail, rapid transit networks — BART and METRO. Both BART and METRO impact land use around suburban stations. The primary contributors to station area development are residential and commercial developers in addition to the transportation providers themselves. The trend toward more intense development away from the regional CBD toward suburban station areas indicates a wave of influence moving into the hinterland via transit lines. While trends of land use are apparent, individual station areas seem to be dictated by local conditions such as markets, land use restrictions, accessibility, population, and physical geography.
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    Transportation 17 (1990), S. 29-47 
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    Keywords: freight ; mode ; choice — behaviour ; modelling ; company ; structure ; decision-making ; factor analysis ; disaggregate data ; causal relationships ; reliability ; consignment ; control
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying
    Notes: Abstract In the next few years, exciting developments in the field of freight transport are likely to occur. The Channel Tunnel will be perceived as giving railways much greater distance of operation, compared to the current train ferry to/from Great Britain. The further development of swap-body technology will allow easier modal transfer and the creation, in 1992, of a single market in Europe will transform the pattern of trade. All of these are likely to have significant impacts on modal choice, and hence modal split, in freight transport. Reappraisal by many firms of the modes of transport used is likely but will it result in a net transfer of freight from road to rail and, if so, to what extent? To answer such questions, an accurate and reliable method of predicting modal split is required. Research in the past has concentrated on the development of modal split models based on generalised costs. These fail to explain adequately the prevalence of road freight in the UK. From surveys of freight managers within industry, it is clear that models to date rely too heavily on the economic cost factor and too little on behavioural factors (Jeffs 1985). This paper derives from a recent study of freight transport modal choice from the standpoint of the transport decision-maker within the firm. It attempts to shed light on the actual parameters which should be incorporated into a modal split model. Many variables appear to exert an influence on modal choice decision-making process. However, it is possible to categorise them into six main groups, namely: customer-requirements; product-characteristics; company structure/organisation; government interventions; available transport facilities; and perceptions of the decision-maker him/herself. It is the interactions and inter-relationships between these which ultimately determine freight modal split. This study has shown that the relationship between the outcome of the transport decision process and the values of particular determinants of modal split is not straight-forward, due to the complexity and variety of interactions involved. Perhaps one of the main reasons for researchers' failure hitherto to develop a successful modal-split model has been the preoccupation with techniques that rely on the development of common metric (e.g. generalised cost), which has led to the exclusion of some important explanatory variables along quite different dimensions. Another important issue concerns the appropriate level of aggregation. In order not to reduce the explanatory power of the key variables, it is important to work at a disaggregate level, although this does make substantial demands on data. The use of factor analysis enables both the aggregation of information without loss of behavioural reality and the specification of variables in terms of a common metric. In conclusion, freight transport has usually been examined within too narrow a framework. It must be placed firmly within the context of the total industrial process. The demand for freight transport is directly influenced by the level, composition and geographical distribution of production and consumption activities. Freight flows are complex and so it is highly unlikely that a universal mode-choice model can ever be developed. Future research should, therefore, be directed towards developing partial models in response to specific needs of those involved in decision-taking in the freight sector.
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    Transportation 17 (1990), S. 93-116 
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    Keywords: congestion ; demand ; employer ; management ; suburban ; traffic
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying
    Notes: Abstract This paper provides findings from a review of employer based demand management strategies for reducing traffic congestion in several areas of the United States. The research was carried out by K.T. Analytics, Inc. in 1989 under a contract with the Federal Department of Transportation, Transportation Systems Center. Relying on a review of employer based programs in 26 sites, as well as selected literature, the paper draws conclusions about the effectiveness of employer based transportation systems management (programs to encourage carpooling, transit, biking, cycling, walking and flextime) and parking management (preferential parking for carpoolers, removal of parking subsidies, and other measures) aimed at reducing solo driving and peak period commuting. Several conclusions are offered for local planners and policy makers. Demand Management programs can be effective in reducing traffic congestion, provided they are targeted to larger employment centers, accompanied by transit development, high occupancy vehicle incentives and parking management strategies, especially pricing. Flextime should not be encouraged without careful evaluation as it may discourage ridesharing. Guaranteed ride home services appear promising and deserve attention. With all strategies, long term vigilance will be necessary as programs are susceptible to change over time. Stringent public policies do not appear necessary for development of effective programs. Ordinances should require plans not specific strategies, as it is difficult estimating the probable effectiveness of particular strategies. Ordinances should contain sanctions for employers not carrying out agreed to plans, and should include fees and financing to support public sector review of plans and on-going monitoring.
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    Transportation 17 (1990), S. 179-207 
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    Keywords: Employer ridesharing programs ; employee mode choice
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying
    Notes: Abstract Employer ridesharing programs and employee mode choice were analyzed using Southern California data. Problems in estimating the costs and benefits of employer ridesharing programs were identified. Surveyed firms used a wide variety of information to estimate employee mode split internally. Virtually all surveyed firms offered free or subsidized parking to some or all of their employees. Few responding firms estimated the cost of providing employee parking accurately, if at all. Despite these significant data limitations, factors influencing firm choice of employer ridesharing program components were identified. The influence of employer ridesharing programs on employee mode choice was modeled using weighted least squares logit regression analysis. Firm size was foung to be the single most important variable identified in the analysis. Larger firms were more likely to offer ridesharing incentives to their empolyees, and to report direct employer benefits from ridesharing. Alternative work hours hindered the formation of ridesharing arrangements in some cases. Relatively few firms promoted ridesharing on a purely voluntary basis. A private market for employer ridesharing services was found to exist, however. Personalized matching assistance may be a critical factor in developing more effective employer ridesharing programs. Parking pricing and supply control measures probably would have a larger impact on employee mode split overall. Parking management faces severe obstacles in implementation, some of which might be overcome through the more extensive provision of ridesharing services, such as personalized matching assistance. to employees at specific employment sites by their employers.
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    Transportation 17 (1990), S. 117-139 
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    Keywords: clasticity ; fare programs ; free fares ; services ; transit fares ; transit ridership
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying
    Notes: Abstract Several decades of research on transit pricing have provided clear insights into how riders respond to price changes in both the transit and automobile sectors. For the most part, riders are insensitive to changes in either fare levels, structures, or forms of payments, though this varies considerably among user groups and operating environments. Since riders are approximately twice as sensitive to changes in travel time as they are to changes in fares, a compelling argument can be made for operating more premium quality transit services at higher prices. Such programs could be supplemented by vouchers and concessionary programs to reduce the burden of higher fares on low-income users. Also, cross-elasticity research suggests that higher automobile prices would have a significantly greater affect on ridership than lower fares. Most research on transit fare structures shows that the common practice of flat fares is highly inequitable, penalizing short-distance and off-peak users. Free fare programs have proven quite costly for each new transit user attracted and have rarely lured motorists to transit. Free fares limited to downtowns have been more successful than systemwide free fare programs. While prepayment schemes have met with success in the U.S. and Europe, honor fares have suffered from excessive revenue losses in at least one case in the U.S. Some of the more noteworthy fare policy successes in North America have been Bridgeport's combined pass-fare program, Allentown's deep discounts, Ottawa's major fare reduction and differentiation, and Columbus's substantial midday discount. As paratransit and other new transit alternatives to conventional bus continue to emerge, new, more differentiated fare practices can be expected in the future.
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    Transportation 17 (1990), S. 209-211 
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    Transportation 17 (1990), S. 1-28 
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    Keywords: panels ; flexible work hours ; longitudinal data ; Honolulu
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying
    Notes: Abstract This paper documents an application of panel, or longitudinal data collection in the evaluation of a TSM (Transportation Systems Management) demonstration project. The project was a four-week demonstration of staggered work hours in downtown Honolulu during February–March 1988. The 4 wave panel survey elicited commuting experiences of approximately 2,000 downtown employees at two week intervals before and during the project. The sample involved both employees who participated in the project by shifting their work hours, and those who did not. The panel survey was augmented by floating-car observations of travel times on major routes into downtown Honolulu on the same four dates. The purpose of the analysis was to determine whether employee commute times were affected, and if so, how these changes were distributed among various employee segments. Two methods were used. First, travel time changes were estimated using paired t-tests. Second, regression equations were used to estimate project time savings as a function of trip length, route, and location of residence. Results show that travel time savings due to the project were typically small, less than ten percent. Nonparticipants experienced greater savings than participants, and some segments of participants experienced longer travel times during the project. The panel method proved to be an effective way to measure project travel time impacts and shows that the method is appropriate in short time applications.
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    Transportation 17 (1990), S. 159-177 
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    Keywords: carpooling ; HOV Lanes ; Orange County ; ridesharing
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying
    Notes: Abstract High occupancy vehicle lanes have become an integral part of regional transportation planning. Their purpose is to increase ridesharing by offering a travel time advantage to multiple occupant vehicles. This paper examines the extent to which an HOV facility increases ridesharing. Using data from the Route 55 HOV facility in Orange Country, California, changes in the carpooling rate on Route 55 are compared to that of a control group of freeway commuters. The analysis shows that the carpooling rate among peak period commuters, and particularly those who use the entire length of the facility, has increased. However, there has been no significant increase in ridesharing among the entire population of Route 55 commuters. Results suggest that barriers to increased ridesharing are formidable, that travel time savings must be large in order to attract new carpoolers, and that further increases in capooling will likely require development of extensive HOV lane systems.
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    Rock mechanics and rock engineering 23 (1990), S. 21-28 
    ISSN: 1434-453X
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geosciences
    Notes: Summary The different functions of cumulative probability of fracture that can be used in the Probabilistic Strength of Materials in the case of constant uniaxial compression are described. Sound fine-grained granite was used to study volume influence by fracturing rectangular prisms, and then no noticeable influence was observed. Since this is showing that all the fracture stresses are belonging to a single set they were included in a single group that exhibited two functions of specific risk of fracture. The population with the lesser fracture stress has no critical zone while the other population does have it and a critical zone in the order of 10−6 m3 is the minimum size exhibiting a complete fracture of the specimen when the same collapses. All the statistical functions were found to be acceptable according to theX 2 criterion.
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    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Rock mechanics and rock engineering 23 (1990), S. 91-112 
    ISSN: 1434-453X
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geosciences
    Notes: Summary A probabilistic analysis method of random anisotropic damage mechanics problems is proposed in parts I and II. In part I, based on the measured characteristics of random crack distribution on the surface of a rock specimen, a probabilistic distribution law of damage variables for rock mass is presented as a Beta distribution by using the Monte-Carlo statistical simulation method. In part II, statistical estimation of a damage state and properties of random damaged rock mass are evaluated by Rosenblueth's point estimate method. Combining with the F. E. method, rock mechanics problem for random damaged state have been analyzed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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