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  • Sustainability Science  (55)
  • Crustal structure  (2)
  • National Academy of Sciences  (55)
  • Wiley  (2)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We investigate in detail the crustal layering of the ‘Val di Chiana Basin’ (Northern Apennines, Tuscany, Italy) through receiver functions and seismic anisotropy with hexagonal symmetry. The teleseismic data set is recorded in correspondence of a typical foreland basin resulting by the progressive eastward retreat of a regional-scale subduction zone trapped between two continents. We study the azimuthal variations of the computed and binned receiver functions associated to a harmonic angular analysis to emphasize the presence of the dipping and the anisotropic structures. The resulting S-wave velocity model shows interesting and new results for this area that we discuss in a regional geodynamic contest contributing to the knowledge of the structure of the forearc of the subduction zone. A dipping interface (N192°E strike, 18° dip) has been revealed at about 1.5 km depth, that separates the basin sediments and flysch from the carbonates and evaporites. Moreover, we interpret the two upper-crust anisotropic layers (at about 6 and 17 km depth) as the Hercynian Phyllites and Micaschists, of the Metamorphic Tuscan Basement. At relatively shallow depths, the presence of these metamorphic rocks causes the seismic anisotropy in the upper crust. The presence of shallow anisotropic layers is a new and interesting feature, first revealed in the study area. Beneath the crust–mantle transition (Moho), located about 28 km depth, our analysis reveals a 7-km-thick anisotropic layer.
    Description: Published
    Description: 545-556
    Description: 3.3. Geodinamica e struttura dell'interno della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Seismic anisotopy ; Computational Seismology ; Wave propagation ; Subduction zone process ; Crustal structure ; Europe ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.07. Tomography and anisotropy
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We present the surface wave dispersion results of the application of the ambient noise method to broad-band data recorded at 114 stations from the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vul- canologia (INGV) national broad-band network, some stations of the Mediterranean Very Broadband Seismographic Network (MedNet) and of the Austrian Central Institute for Me- teorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG). Vertical-component ambient noise data from 2005 October to 2007 March have been cross-correlated for station-pairs to estimate fundamental mode Rayleigh wave Green’s functions. Cross-correlations are calculated in 1-hr segments, stacked over periods varying between 3 months and 1.5 yr. Rayleigh wave group dispersion curves at periods from 8 to 44 s were determined using the multiple-filter analysis technique. The study region was divided into a 0.2◦ × 0.2◦ grid to invert for group velocity distribu- tions. Checkerboard tests were first carried out, and the lateral resolution was estimated to be about 0.6◦. The resulting group velocity maps from 8 to 36 s show the significant difference of the crustal structure and good correlations with known geological and tectonic features in the study region. The Po Plain and the Southern Alps evidence lower group veloci- ties due to soft alluvial deposits, and thick terrigenous sediments. Our results also clearly showed that the Tyrrhenian Sea is characterized with much higher velocities below 8 km than the Italian peninsula and the Adriatic Sea which indicates a thin oceanic crust beneath the Tyrrhenian Sea.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1242-1252
    Description: 3.3. Geodinamica e struttura dell'interno della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Tomography ; Surface waves and free oscillations ; Crustal structure ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.07. Tomography and anisotropy
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2011-05-11
    Description: As payment for ecosystem services (PES) programs proliferate globally, assessing their impact upon households’ income and livelihood patterns is critical. The Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP) is an exceptional PES program, in terms of its ambitious biophysical and socioeconomic objectives, large geographic scale, numbers of people directly affected, and duration of operation. The SLCP has now operated in the poor mountainous areas in China for 10 y and offers a unique opportunity for policy evaluation. Using survey data on rural households’ livelihoods in the southern mountain area in Zhouzhi County, Shaanxi Province, we carry out a statistical analysis of the effects of PES and other factors on rural household income. We analyze the extent of income inequality and compare the socio-demographic features and household income of households participating in the SLCP with those that did not. Our statistical analysis shows that participation in SLCP has significant positive impacts upon household income, especially for low- and medium-income households; however, participation also has some negative impacts on the low- and medium-income households. Overall, income inequality is less among households participating in the SLCP than among those that do not after 7 y of the PES program. Different income sources have different effects on Gini statistics; in particular, wage income has opposite effects on income inequality for the participating and nonparticipating households. We find, however, that the SLCP has not increased the transfer of labor toward nonfarming activities in the survey site, as the government expected.
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2011-05-18
    Description: The energy sector comprises approximately two-thirds of global total greenhouse gas emissions. For this and other reasons, renewable energy resources including wind power are being increasingly harnessed to provide electricity generation potential with negligible emissions of carbon dioxide. The wind energy resource is naturally a function of the climate system because the “fuel” is the incident wind speed and thus is determined by the atmospheric circulation. Some recent articles have reported historical declines in measured near-surface wind speeds, leading some to question the continued viability of the wind energy industry. Here we briefly articulate the challenges inherent in accurately quantifying and attributing historical tendencies and making robust projections of likely future wind resources. We then analyze simulations from the current generation of regional climate models and show, at least for the next 50 years, the wind resource in the regions of greatest wind energy penetration will not move beyond the historical envelope of variability. Thus this work suggests that the wind energy industry can, and will, continue to make a contribution to electricity provision in these regions for at least the next several decades.
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2011-05-25
    Description: Carbon dioxide emissions in one country can support consumption of goods and services in another country; countries and their CO2 emissions are linked together by international trade. The study of CO2 emissions embodied in international trade was largely opened up by Peters and Hertwich (1). In PNAS, Peters et al. (2) introduce a dimension into this field of study, and that dimension is time. It is not often that one team of researchers has done so much to introduce a field of inquiry and then expand it so rapidly, giving us insights into the challenges and potential solutions to the...
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2011-11-09
    Description: CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels are conventionally attributed to the country where the emissions are produced (i.e., where the fuels are burned). However, these production-based accounts represent a single point in the value chain of fossil fuels, which may have been extracted elsewhere and may be used to provide goods or services to consumers elsewhere. We present a consistent set of carbon inventories that spans the full supply chain of global CO2 emissions, finding that 10.2 billion tons CO2 or 37% of global emissions are from fossil fuels traded internationally and an additional 6.4 billion tons CO2 or 23% of global emissions are embodied in traded goods. Our results reveal vulnerabilities and benefits related to current patterns of energy use that are relevant to climate and energy policy. In particular, if a consistent and unavoidable price were imposed on CO2 emissions somewhere along the supply chain, then all of the parties along the supply chain would seek to impose that price to generate revenue from taxes collected or permits sold. The geographical concentration of carbon-based fuels and relatively small number of parties involved in extracting and refining those fuels suggest that regulation at the wellhead, mine mouth, or refinery might minimize transaction costs as well as opportunities for leakage.
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2011-12-07
    Description: Sustainability science, as described by the PNAS website, is “…an emerging field of research dealing with the interactions between natural and social systems, and with how those interactions affect the challenge of sustainability: meeting the needs of present and future generations while substantially reducing poverty and conserving the planet's life support systems.” Over the past 7 y, PNAS has published over 300 papers in its unique section on sustainability science and has received and reviewed submissions for many hundreds more. What kind of a science is sustainability science?The article by Bettencourt and Kaur (1) on the evolution and structure of...
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2011-12-07
    Description: PERSPECTIVE Correction for “A review of financial instruments to pay for predator conservation and encourage human–carnivore coexistence,” by Amy J. Dickman, Ewan A. Macdonald, and David W. Macdonald, which appeared in issue 34, August 23, 2011, of Proc Natl Acad Sci USA (108:13937–13944; first published August 23, 2011; 10.1073/pnas.1012972108).The authors note that reference 21 on page 13943, “Zabel A, Pittel K, Bostedt G, Engel S (2009) Comparing Conventional and New Policy Approaches for Carnivore Conservation – Theoretical Results and Application to Tiger Conservation (International Institute for Environment and Development, London).” should instead appear as “Zabel A., Pittel K., Bostedt G.,...
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2011-11-16
    Description: In a tsunami event human casualties and infrastructure damage are determined predominantly by seaquake intensity and offshore properties. On land, wave energy is attenuated by gravitation (elevation) and friction (land cover). Tree belts have been promoted as “bioshields” against wave impact. However, given the lack of quantitative evidence of their performance in such extreme events, tree belts have been criticized for creating a false sense of security. This study used 180 transects perpendicular to over 100 km on the west coast of Aceh, Indonesia to analyze the influence of coastal vegetation, particularly cultivated trees, on the impact of the 2004 tsunami. Satellite imagery; land cover maps; land use characteristics; stem diameter, height, and planting density; and a literature review were used to develop a land cover roughness coefficient accounting for the resistance offered by different land uses to the wave advance. Applying a spatial generalized linear mixed model, we found that while distance to coast was the dominant determinant of impact (casualties and infrastructure damage), the existing coastal vegetation in front of settlements also significantly reduced casualties by an average of 5%. In contrast, dense vegetation behind villages endangered human lives and increased structural damage. Debris carried by the backwash may have contributed to these dissimilar effects of land cover. For sustainable and effective coastal risk management, location of settlements is essential, while the protective potential of coastal vegetation, as determined by its spatial arrangement, should be regarded as an important livelihood provider rather than just as a bioshield.
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2011-11-16
    Description: In 2004, a devastating tsunami drew attention to the vulnerability of communities along the coasts of the Indian Ocean. A central question posed by this event was whether and how coastal forests and other biological and man-made obstacles diminish the impact of the waves (1). In an effort to build back better, some environmentalists promoted the idea of planting coastal greenbelts as life-protecting components of sustainable coastal planning. Scientific assessments, however, produced inconclusive results regarding the function and use of such tsunami bio-shields and sparked controversy about the efficient use of aid money (2–4). The seminal study by Laso Bayas...
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2011-11-30
    Description: We used eddy covariance and ecological measurements to investigate the effects of reduced impact logging (RIL) on an old-growth Amazonian forest. Logging caused small decreases in gross primary production, leaf production, and latent heat flux, which were roughly proportional to canopy loss, and increases in heterotrophic respiration, tree mortality, and wood production. The net effect of RIL was transient, and treatment effects were barely discernable after only 1 y. RIL appears to provide a strategy for managing tropical forest that minimizes the potential risks to climate associated with large changes in carbon and water exchange.
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2011-10-26
    Description: The precarious state of many nearshore marine ecosystems has prompted the use of marine protected areas as a tool for management and conservation. However, there remains substantial debate over their design and, in particular, how to best account for the spatial dynamics of nearshore marine species. Many commercially important nearshore marine species are sedentary as adults, with limited home ranges. It is as larvae that they disperse greater distances, traveling with ocean currents sometimes hundreds of kilometers. As a result, these species exist in spatially complex systems of connected subpopulations. Here, we explicitly account for the mutual dependence of subpopulations and approach protected area design in terms of network robustness. Our goal is to characterize the topology of nearshore metapopulation networks and their response to perturbation, and to identify critical subpopulations whose protection would reduce the risk for stock collapse. We define metapopulation networks using realistic estimates of larval dispersal generated from ocean circulation simulations and spatially explicit metapopulation models, and we then explore their robustness using node-removal simulation experiments. Nearshore metapopulations show small-world network properties, and we identify a set of highly connected hub subpopulations whose removal maximally disrupts the metapopulation network. Protecting these subpopulations reduces the risk for systemic failure and stock collapse. Our focus on catastrophe avoidance provides a unique perspective for spatial marine planning and the design of marine protected areas.
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2011-09-21
    Description: As the Copenhagen Accord indicates, most of the international community agrees that global mean temperature should not be allowed to rise more than two degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels to avoid unacceptable damages from climate change. The scientific evidence distilled in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and recent reports by the US National Academies shows that this can only be achieved by vast reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. Still, international cooperation on greenhouse gas emissions reductions suffers from incentives to free-ride and to renegotiate agreements in case of noncompliance, and the same is true for other so-called “public good games.” Using game theory, we show how one might overcome these problems with a simple dynamic strategy of linear compensation when the parameters of the problem fulfill some general conditions and players can be considered to be sufficiently rational. The proposed strategy redistributes liabilities according to past compliance levels in a proportionate and timely way. It can be used to implement any given allocation of target contributions, and we prove that it has several strong stability properties.
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2011-03-23
    Description: Globalization of trade has dramatic socioeconomic effects, and, intuitively, significant ecological effects should follow. However, few quantitative examples exist of the interrelationship of globalization, socioeconomics, and ecological patterns. We present a striking illustration of a cascade in which bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE; “mad cow disease”) outbreaks in Europe exerted pressure on global beef markets, subsequently affecting North American hayfields and grassland bird populations. We examined competing models, which linked the prevalence of BSE in five focal countries, volume of beef exports to those countries from North America, and the amount of hayfield harvested and the abundance of grassland birds in North America. We found that (i) imports from North America increased 1 y after BSE outbreaks; (ii) probably because fewer cattle remained, the hay harvest in North America was reduced 2 y after the outbreak; (iii) the reduced hay harvest yielded a positive response in grassland bird populations 3 y after the outbreak.
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2011-03-30
    Description: Two distinct views are evident in research on how rural communities in developing countries cope with extreme weather events brought by climate change: (i) that the resource-reliant poor are acutely vulnerable and need external assistance to prepare for such events, and (ii) that climate-related shocks can offer windows of opportunity in which latent local adaptive capacities are triggered, leading to systemic improvement. Results from a longitudinal study in a Tawahka community in Honduras before and after Hurricane Mitch (1994–2002) indicate that residents were highly vulnerable to the hurricane—due in part to previous development assistance—and that the poorest households were the hardest hit. Surprisingly, however, the disaster enabled the poor to initiate an institutional change that led to more equitable land distribution, slowed primary forest conversion, and positioned the community well to cope with comparable flooding occurring 10 y later. The study provides compelling evidence that communities can seize on the window of opportunity created by climate-induced shocks to generate sustained social-ecological improvement, and suggests that future interventions should foster local capacities for endogenous institutional change to enhance community resilience to climate shocks.
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2011-01-26
    Description: Natural resource management is littered with cases of overexploitation and ineffectual management, leading to loss of both biodiversity and human welfare. Disciplinary boundaries stifle the search for solutions to these issues. Here, I combine the approach of management strategy evaluation, widely applied in fisheries, with household utility models from the conservation and development literature, to produce an integrated framework for evaluating the effectiveness of competing management strategies for harvested resources against a range of performance metrics. I demonstrate the strengths of this approach with a simple model, and use it to examine the effect of manager ignorance of household decisions on resource management effectiveness, and an allocation tradeoff between monitoring resource stocks to reduce observation uncertainty and monitoring users to improve compliance. I show that this integrated framework enables management assessments to consider household utility as a direct metric for system performance, and that although utility and resource stock conservation metrics are well aligned, harvest yield is a poor proxy for both, because it is a product of household allocation decisions between alternate livelihood options, rather than an end in itself. This approach has potential far beyond single-species harvesting in situations where managers are in full control; I show that the integrated approach enables a range of management intervention options to be evaluated within the same framework.
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2011-02-16
    Description: Increased phosphorus (P) fertilizer use and livestock production has fundamentally altered the global P cycle. We calculated spatially explicit P balances for cropland soils at 0.5° resolution based on the principal agronomic P inputs and outputs associated with production of 123 crops globally for the year 2000. Although agronomic inputs of P fertilizer (14.2 Tg of P·y−1) and manure (9.6 Tg of P·y−1) collectively exceeded P removal by harvested crops (12.3 Tg of P·y−1) at the global scale, P deficits covered almost 30% of the global cropland area. There was massive variation in the magnitudes of these P imbalances across most regions, particularly Europe and South America. High P fertilizer application relative to crop P use resulted in a greater proportion of the intense P surpluses (〉13 kg of P·ha−1·y−1) globally than manure P application. High P fertilizer application was also typically associated with areas of relatively low P-use efficiency. Although manure was an important driver of P surpluses in some locations with high livestock densities, P deficits were common in areas producing forage crops used as livestock feed. Resolving agronomic P imbalances may be possible with more efficient use of P fertilizers and more effective recycling of manure P. Such reforms are needed to increase global agricultural productivity while maintaining or improving freshwater quality.
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2011-07-20
    Description: What the world does or does not do about climate change will have profound implications. If the world fails to act, we may cross a climate tipping point, with disastrous consequences all around. No country by itself can prevent this, but a substantial number of countries working together can avert disaster. Collectively, we know what we need to do. However, can we agree on what each of us should do? Can we be assured that, if we act, others will fulfill their pledges? An experimental paper in PNAS (1) provides reasons for optimism and despair, optimism because, with communication, outcomes...
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2011-07-27
    Description: We explored the social and ecological outcomes associated with emergence of a management panacea designed to govern a stochastic renewable natural resource. To that end, we constructed a model of a coupled social-ecological system of recreational fisheries in which a manager supports naturally fluctuating stocks by stocking fish in response to harvest-driven satisfaction of resource users. The realistic assumption of users remembering past harvest experiences when exploiting a stochastically fluctuating fish population facilitates the emergence of a stocking-based management panacea over time. The social benefits of panacea formation involve dampening natural population fluctuations and generating stability of user satisfaction. It also maintains the resource but promotes the eventual replacement of wild fish by hatchery-descended fish. Our analyses show this outcome is particularly likely when hatchery-descended fish are reasonably fit (e.g., characterized by similar survival relative to wild fish) and/or when natural recruitment of the wild population is low (e.g., attributable to habitat deterioration), which leaves the wild population with little buffer against competition by stocked fish. The potential for release-based panacea formation is particularly likely under user-based management regimes and should be common in a range of social-ecological systems (e.g., fisheries, forestry), whenever user groups are entitled to engage in release or replanting strategies. The net result will be the preservation of a renewable resource through user-based incentives, but the once natural populations are likely to be altered and to host nonnative genotypes. This risks other ecosystem services and the future of wild populations.
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2011-07-20
    Description: International efforts to provide global public goods often face the challenges of coordinating national contributions and distributing costs equitably in the face of uncertainty, inequality, and free-riding incentives. In an experimental setting, we distribute endowments unequally among a group of people who can reach a fixed target sum through successive money contributions, knowing that if they fail, they will lose all their remaining money with 50% probability. In some treatments, we give players the option to communicate intended contributions. We find that inequality reduces the prospects of reaching the target but that communication increases success dramatically. Successful groups tend to eliminate inequality over the course of the game, with rich players signaling willingness to redistribute early on. Our results suggest that coordination-promoting institutions and early redistribution from richer to poorer nations are both decisive for the avoidance of global calamities, such as disruptive climate change.
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2011-06-30
    Description: From group hunting to global warming, how to deal with collective action may be formulated in terms of a public goods game of cooperation. In most cases, contributions depend on the risk of future losses. Here, we introduce an evolutionary dynamics approach to a broad class of cooperation problems in which attempting to minimize future losses turns the risk of failure into a central issue in individual decisions. We find that decisions within small groups under high risk and stringent requirements to success significantly raise the chances of coordinating actions and escaping the tragedy of the commons. We also offer insights on the scale at which public goods problems of cooperation are best solved. Instead of large-scale endeavors involving most of the population, which as we argue, may be counterproductive to achieve cooperation, the joint combination of local agreements within groups that are small compared with the population at risk is prone to significantly raise the probability of success. In addition, our model predicts that, if one takes into consideration that groups of different sizes are interwoven in complex networks of contacts, the chances for global coordination in an overall cooperating state are further enhanced.
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2011-07-06
    Description: We present new sea-level reconstructions for the past 2100 y based on salt-marsh sedimentary sequences from the US Atlantic coast. The data from North Carolina reveal four phases of persistent sea-level change after correction for glacial isostatic adjustment. Sea level was stable from at least BC 100 until AD 950. Sea level then increased for 400 y at a rate of 0.6 mm/y, followed by a further period of stable, or slightly falling, sea level that persisted until the late 19th century. Since then, sea level has risen at an average rate of 2.1 mm/y, representing the steepest century-scale increase of the past two millennia. This rate was initiated between AD 1865 and 1892. Using an extended semiempirical modeling approach, we show that these sea-level changes are consistent with global temperature for at least the past millennium.
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2011-07-06
    Description: Many urban households in developing countries use biomass fuels for cooking. The proportion of household biomass use varies among neighborhoods, and is generally higher in low socioeconomic status (SES) communities. Little is known of how household air pollution varies by SES and how it is affected by biomass fuels and traffic sources in developing country cities. In four neighborhoods in Accra, Ghana, we collected and analyzed geo-referenced data on household and community particulate matter (PM) pollution, SES, fuel use for domestic and small-commercial cooking, housing characteristics, and distance to major roads. Cooking area PM was lowest in the high-SES neighborhood, with geometric means of 25 (95% confidence interval, 21–29) and 28 (23–33) μg/m3 for fine and coarse PM (PM2.5 and PM2.5–10), respectively; it was highest in two low-SES slums, with geometric means reaching 71 (62–80) and 131 (114–150) μg/m3 for fine and coarse PM. After adjustment for other factors, living in a community where all households use biomass fuels would be associated with 1.5- to 2.7-times PM levels in models with and without adjustment for ambient PM. Community biomass use had a stronger association with household PM than household's own fuel choice in crude and adjusted estimates. Lack of regular physical access to clean fuels is an obstacle to fuel switching in low-income neighborhoods and should be addressed through equitable energy infrastructure.
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2011-05-25
    Description: Induced mutagenesis can be an effective way to increase variability in self-pollinated crops for a wide variety of agronomically important traits. Crop resistance to a given herbicide can be of practical value to control weeds with efficient chemical use. In some crops (for example, wheat, maize, and canola), resistance to imidazolinone herbicides (IMIs) has been introduced through mutation breeding and is extensively used commercially. However, this production system imposes plant-back restrictions on rotational crops because of herbicide residuals in the soil. In the case of barley, a preferred rotational crop after wheat, a period of 9–18 mo is required. Thus, introduction of barley varieties showing resistance to IMIs will provide greater flexibility as a rotational crop. The objective of the research reported was to identify resistance in barley for IMIs through induced mutagenesis. To achieve this objective, a sodium azide-treated M2/M3 population of barley cultivar Bob was screened for resistance against acetohydroxy acid synthase (AHAS)-inhibiting herbicides. The phenotypic screening allowed identification of a mutant line showing resistance against IMIs. Molecular analysis identified a single-point mutation leading to a serine 653 to asparagine amino acid substitution in the herbicide-binding site of the barley AHAS gene. The transcription pattern of the AHAS gene in the mutant (Ser653Asn) and WT has been analyzed, and greater than fourfold difference in transcript abundance was observed. Phenotypic characteristics of the mutant line are promising and provide the base for the release of IMI-resistant barley cultivar(s).
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2011-05-18
    Description: Local and landscape-scale agricultural intensification is a major driver of global biodiversity loss. Controversially discussed solutions include wildlife-friendly farming or combining high-intensity farming with land-sparing for nature. Here, we integrate biodiversity and crop productivity data for smallholder cacao in Indonesia to exemplify for tropical agroforests that there is little relationship between yield and biodiversity under current management, opening substantial opportunities for wildlife-friendly management. Species richness of trees, fungi, invertebrates, and vertebrates did not decrease with yield. Moderate shade, adequate labor, and input level can be combined with a complex habitat structure to provide high biodiversity as well as high yields. Although livelihood impacts are held up as a major obstacle for wildlife-friendly farming in the tropics, our results suggest that in some situations, agroforests can be designed to optimize both biodiversity and crop production benefits without adding pressure to convert natural habitat to farmland.
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
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  • 26
    Publication Date: 2011-05-25
    Description: A pervasive issue in social and environmental research has been how to improve the quality of socioeconomic data in developing countries. Given the shortcomings of standard sources, the present study examines luminosity (measures of nighttime lights visible from space) as a proxy for standard measures of output (gross domestic product). We compare output and luminosity at the country level and at the 1° latitude × 1° longitude grid-cell level for the period 1992–2008. We find that luminosity has informational value for countries with low-quality statistical systems, particularly for those countries with no recent population or economic censuses.
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2011-05-25
    Description: Despite the emergence of regional climate policies, growth in global CO2 emissions has remained strong. From 1990 to 2008 CO2 emissions in developed countries (defined as countries with emission-reduction commitments in the Kyoto Protocol, Annex B) have stabilized, but emissions in developing countries (non-Annex B) have doubled. Some studies suggest that the stabilization of emissions in developed countries was partially because of growing imports from developing countries. To quantify the growth in emission transfers via international trade, we developed a trade-linked global database for CO2 emissions covering 113 countries and 57 economic sectors from 1990 to 2008. We find that the emissions from the production of traded goods and services have increased from 4.3 Gt CO2 in 1990 (20% of global emissions) to 7.8 Gt CO2 in 2008 (26%). Most developed countries have increased their consumption-based emissions faster than their territorial emissions, and non–energy-intensive manufacturing had a key role in the emission transfers. The net emission transfers via international trade from developing to developed countries increased from 0.4 Gt CO2 in 1990 to 1.6 Gt CO2 in 2008, which exceeds the Kyoto Protocol emission reductions. Our results indicate that international trade is a significant factor in explaining the change in emissions in many countries, from both a production and consumption perspective. We suggest that countries monitor emission transfers via international trade, in addition to territorial emissions, to ensure progress toward stabilization of global greenhouse gas emissions.
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2011-04-06
    Description: Human welfare depends on the amount and stability of agricultural production, as determined by crop yield and cultivated area. Yield increases asymptotically with the resources provided by farmers’ inputs and environmentally sensitive ecosystem services. Declining yield growth with increased inputs prompts conversion of more land to cultivation, but at the risk of eroding ecosystem services. To explore the interdependence of agricultural production and its stability on ecosystem services, we present and test a general graphical model, based on Jensen's inequality, of yield–resource relations and consider implications for land conversion. For the case of animal pollination as a resource influencing crop yield, this model predicts that incomplete and variable pollen delivery reduces yield mean and stability (inverse of variability) more for crops with greater dependence on pollinators. Data collected by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations during 1961–2008 support these predictions. Specifically, crops with greater pollinator dependence had lower mean and stability in relative yield and yield growth, despite global yield increases for most crops. Lower yield growth was compensated by increased land cultivation to enhance production of pollinator-dependent crops. Area stability also decreased with pollinator dependence, as it correlated positively with yield stability among crops. These results reveal that pollen limitation hinders yield growth of pollinator-dependent crops, decreasing temporal stability of global agricultural production, while promoting compensatory land conversion to agriculture. Although we examined crop pollination, our model applies to other ecosystem services for which the benefits to human welfare decelerate as the maximum is approached.
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2011-01-04
    Description: Empirical measurement of interventions to address significant global health and development problems is necessary to ensure that resources are applied appropriately. Such intervention programs are often deployed at the group or community level. The gold standard design to measure the effectiveness of community-level interventions is the community-randomized trial, but the conditions of these trials often make it difficult to assess their external validity and sustainability. The sheer number of community interventions, relative to randomized studies, speaks to a need for rigorous observational methods to measure their impact. In this article, we use the potential outcomes model for causal inference to motivate a matched cohort design to study the impact and sustainability of nonrandomized, preexisting interventions. We illustrate the method using a sanitation mobilization, water supply, and hygiene intervention in rural India. In a matched sample of 25 villages, we enrolled 1,284 children
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  • 30
    Publication Date: 2011-01-04
    Description: Increased farm salmon production has heightened concerns about the association between disease on farm and wild fish. The controversy is particularly evident in the Broughton Archipelago of Western Canada, where a high prevalence of sea lice (ectoparasitic copepods) was first reported on juvenile wild pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) in 2001. Exposure to sea lice from farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) was thought to be the cause of the 97% population decline before these fish returned to spawn in 2002, although no diagnostic investigation was done to rule out other causes of mortality. To address the concern that sea lice from fish farms would cause population extinction of wild salmon, we analyzed 10–20 y of fish farm data and 60 y of pink salmon data. We show that the number of pink salmon returning to spawn in the fall predicts the number of female sea lice on farm fish the next spring, which, in turn, accounts for 98% of the annual variability in the prevalence of sea lice on outmigrating wild juvenile salmon. However, productivity of wild salmon is not negatively associated with either farm lice numbers or farm fish production, and all published field and laboratory data support the conclusion that something other than sea lice caused the population decline in 2002. We conclude that separating farm salmon from wild salmon—proposed through coordinated fallowing or closed containment—will not increase wild salmon productivity and that medical analysis can improve our understanding of complex issues related to aquaculture sustainability.
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  • 31
    Publication Date: 2011-01-05
    Description: Globalization and economic growth are widely recognized as important drivers of biological invasions. Consequently, there is an increasing need for governments to address the role of international trade in their strategies to prevent species introductions. However, many of the most problematic alien species are not recent arrivals but were introduced several decades ago. Hence, current patterns of alien-species richness may better reflect historical rather than contemporary human activities, a phenomenon which might be called “invasion debt.” Here, we show that across 10 taxonomic groups (vascular plants, bryophytes, fungi, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, fish, terrestrial insects, and aquatic invertebrates) in 28 European countries, current numbers of alien species established in the wild are indeed more closely related to indicators of socioeconomic activity from the year 1900 than to those from 2000, although the majority of species introductions occurred during the second half of the 20th century. The strength of the historical signal varies among taxonomic groups, with those possessing good capabilities for dispersal (birds, insects) more strongly associated with recent socioeconomic drivers. Nevertheless, our results suggest a considerable historical legacy for the majority of the taxa analyzed. The consequences of the current high levels of socioeconomic activity on the extent of biological invasions will thus probably not be completely realized until several decades into the future.
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  • 32
    Publication Date: 2011-04-13
    Description: Accurately quantifying changes in soil carbon (C) stocks with land-use change is important for estimating the anthropogenic fluxes of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere and for implementing policies such as REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation) that provide financial incentives to reduce carbon dioxide fluxes from deforestation and land degradation. Despite hundreds of field studies and at least a dozen literature reviews, there is still considerable disagreement on the direction and magnitude of changes in soil C stocks with land-use change. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies that quantified changes in soil C stocks with land use in the tropics. Conversion from one land use to another caused significant increases or decreases in soil C stocks for 8 of the 14 transitions examined. For the three land-use transitions with sufficient observations, both the direction and magnitude of the change in soil C pools depended strongly on biophysical factors of mean annual precipitation and dominant soil clay mineralogy. When we compared the distribution of biophysical conditions of the field observations to the area-weighted distribution of those factors in the tropics as a whole or the tropical lands that have undergone conversion, we found that field observations are highly unrepresentative of most tropical landscapes. Because of this geographic bias we strongly caution against extrapolating average values of land-cover change effects on soil C stocks, such as those generated through meta-analysis and literature reviews, to regions that differ in biophysical conditions.
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  • 33
    Publication Date: 2011-04-20
    Description: China and other rapidly developing economies face the dual challenge of substantially increasing yields of cereal grains while at the same time reducing the very substantial environmental impacts of intensive agriculture. We used a model-driven integrated soil–crop system management approach to develop a maize production system that achieved mean maize yields of 13.0 t ha−1 on 66 on-farm experimental plots—nearly twice the yield of current farmers’ practices—with no increase in N fertilizer use. Such integrated soil–crop system management systems represent a priority for agricultural research and implementation, especially in rapidly growing economies.
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
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  • 34
    Publication Date: 2011-04-13
    Description: Nearly 3 billion additional urban dwellers are forecasted by 2050, an unprecedented wave of urban growth. While cities struggle to provide water to these new residents, they will also face equally unprecedented hydrologic changes due to global climate change. Here we use a detailed hydrologic model, demographic projections, and climate change scenarios to estimate per-capita water availability for major cities in the developing world, where urban growth is the fastest. We estimate the amount of water physically available near cities and do not account for problems with adequate water delivery or quality. Modeled results show that currently 150 million people live in cities with perennial water shortage, defined as having less than 100 L per person per day of sustainable surface and groundwater flow within their urban extent. By 2050, demographic growth will increase this figure to almost 1 billion people. Climate change will cause water shortage for an additional 100 million urbanites. Freshwater ecosystems in river basins with large populations of urbanites with insufficient water will likely experience flows insufficient to maintain ecological process. Freshwater fish populations will likely be impacted, an issue of special importance in regions such as India's Western Ghats, where there is both rapid urbanization and high levels of fish endemism. Cities in certain regions will struggle to find enough water for the needs of their residents and will need significant investment if they are to secure adequate water supplies and safeguard functioning freshwater ecosystems for future generations.
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2011-05-04
    Description: Many ecosystems appear subject to regime shifts—abrupt changes from one state to another after crossing a threshold or tipping point. Thresholds and their associated stability landscapes are determined within a coupled socioeconomic–ecological system (SES) where human choices, including those of managers, are feedback responses. Prior work has made one of two assumptions about managers: that they face no institutional constraints, in which case the SES may be managed to be fairly robust to shocks and tipping points are of little importance, or that managers are rigidly constrained with no flexibility to adapt, in which case the inferred thresholds may poorly reflect actual managerial flexibility. We model a multidimensional SES to investigate how alternative institutions affect SES stability landscapes and alter tipping points. With institutionally dependent human feedbacks, the stability landscape depends on institutional arrangements. Strong institutions that account for feedback responses create the possibility for desirable states of the world and can cause undesirable states to cease to exist. Intermediate institutions interact with ecological relationships to determine the existence and nature of tipping points. Finally, weak institutions can eliminate tipping points so that only undesirable states of the world remain.
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
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  • 36
    Publication Date: 2011-03-23
    Description: Rising global demands for food and biofuels are driving forest clearance in the tropics. Oil-palm expansion contributes to biodiversity declines and carbon emissions in Southeast Asia. However, the magnitudes of these impacts remain largely unquantified until now. We produce a 250-m spatial resolution map of closed canopy oil-palm plantations in the lowlands of Peninsular Malaysia (2 million ha), Borneo (2.4 million ha), and Sumatra (3.9 million ha). We demonstrate that 6% (or ≈880,000 ha) of tropical peatlands in the region had been converted to oil-palm plantations by the early 2000s. Conversion of peatswamp forests to oil palm led to biodiversity declines of 1% in Borneo (equivalent to four species of forest-dwelling birds), 3.4% in Sumatra (16 species), and 12.1% in Peninsular Malaysia (46 species). This land-use change also contributed to the loss of ≈140 million Mg of aboveground biomass carbon, and annual emissions of ≈4.6 million Mg of belowground carbon from peat oxidation. Additionally, the loss of peatswamp forests implies the loss of carbon sequestration service through peat accumulation, which amounts to ≈660,000 Mg of carbon annually. By 2010, 2.3 million ha of peatswamp forests were clear-felled, and currently occur as degraded lands. Reforestation of these clearings could enhance biodiversity by up to ≈20%, whereas oil-palm establishment would exacerbate species losses by up to ≈12%. To safeguard the region's biodiversity and carbon stocks, conservation and reforestation efforts should target Central Kalimantan, Riau, and West Kalimantan, which retain three-quarters (3.9 million ha) of the remaining peatswamp forests in Southeast Asia.
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  • 37
    Publication Date: 2011-03-30
    Description: Conservation scientists, national governments, and international conservation groups seek to devise, and implement, governance strategies that mitigate human impact on the environment. However, few studies to date have systematically investigated the performance of different systems of governance in achieving successful conservation outcomes. Here, we use a newly-developed analytic framework to conduct analyses of a suite of case studies, linking different governance strategies to standardized scores for delivering ecosystem services, achieving sustainable use of natural resources, and conserving biodiversity, at both local and international levels. Our results: (i) confirm the benefits of adaptive management; and (ii) reveal strong associations for the role of leadership. Our work provides a critical step toward implementing empirically justified governance strategies that are capable of improving the management of human-altered environments, with benefits for both biodiversity and people.
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  • 38
    Publication Date: 2011-06-01
    Description: African bovine trypanosomiasis caused by Trypanosoma sp., is a major constraint on cattle productivity in sub-Saharan Africa. Some African Bos taurus breeds are highly tolerant of infection, but the potentially more productive Bos indicus zebu breeds are much more susceptible. Zebu cattle are well adapted for plowing and haulage, and increasing their tolerance of trypanosomiasis could have a major impact on crop cultivation as well as dairy and beef production. We used three strategies to obtain short lists of candidate genes within QTL that were previously shown to regulate response to infection. We analyzed the transcriptomes of trypanotolerant N'Dama and susceptible Boran cattle after infection with Trypanosoma congolense. We sequenced EST libraries from these two breeds to identify polymorphisms that might underlie previously identified quantitative trait loci (QTL), and we assessed QTL regions and candidate loci for evidence of selective sweeps. The scan of the EST sequences identified a previously undescribed polymorphism in ARHGAP15 in the Bta2 trypanotolerance QTL. The polymorphism affects gene function in vitro and could contribute to the observed differences in expression of the MAPK pathway in vivo. The expression data showed that TLR and MAPK pathways responded to infection, and the former contained TICAM1, which is within a QTL on Bta7. Genetic analyses showed that selective sweeps had occurred at TICAM1 and ARHGAP15 loci in African taurine cattle, making them strong candidates for the genes underlying the QTL. Candidate QTL genes were identified in other QTL by their expression profile and the pathways in which they participate.
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  • 39
    Publication Date: 2011-09-14
    Description: The enzymatic degradation of recalcitrant plant biomass is one of the key industrial challenges of the 21st century. Accordingly, there is a continuing drive to discover new routes to promote polysaccharide degradation. Perhaps the most promising approach involves the application of “cellulase-enhancing factors,” such as those from the glycoside hydrolase (CAZy) GH61 family. Here we show that GH61 enzymes are a unique family of copper-dependent oxidases. We demonstrate that copper is needed for GH61 maximal activity and that the formation of cellodextrin and oxidized cellodextrin products by GH61 is enhanced in the presence of small molecule redox-active cofactors such as ascorbate and gallate. By using electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy and single-crystal X-ray diffraction, the active site of GH61 is revealed to contain a type II copper and, uniquely, a methylated histidine in the copper's coordination sphere, thus providing an innovative paradigm in bioinorganic enzymatic catalysis.
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  • 40
    Publication Date: 2011-09-28
    Description: Growing demand for food, fuel, and fiber is driving the intensification and expansion of agricultural land through a corresponding displacement of native woodland, savanna, and shrubland. In the wake of this displacement, it is clear that farmland can support biodiversity through preservation of important ecosystem elements at a fine scale. However, how much biodiversity can be sustained and with what tradeoffs for production are open questions. Using a well-studied tropical ecosystem in Costa Rica, we develop an empirically based model for quantifying the “wildlife-friendliness” of farmland for native birds. Some 80% of the 166 mist-netted species depend on fine-scale countryside forest elements (≤60-m-wide clusters of trees, typically of variable length and width) that weave through farmland along hilltops, valleys, rivers, roads, and property borders. Our model predicts with ∼75% accuracy the bird community composition of any part of the landscape. We find conservation value in small (≤20 m wide) clusters of trees and somewhat larger (≤60 m wide) forest remnants to provide substantial support for biodiversity beyond the borders of tropical forest reserves. Within the study area, forest elements on farms nearly double the effective size of the local forest reserve, providing seminatural habitats for bird species typically associated with the forest. Our findings provide a basis for estimating and sustaining biodiversity in farming systems through managing fine-scale ecosystem elements and, more broadly, informing ecosystem service analyses, biodiversity action plans, and regional land use strategies.
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  • 41
    Publication Date: 2011-09-21
    Description: Climate change is the largest commons governance problem that humanity has ever faced. Emissions of greenhouse gases anywhere in the world contribute to radiative forcing everywhere. The impacts of climate change vary greatly from place to place, and the vulnerability to those impacts differs across human groups and across other species, even in a single location. The five nations with the largest CO2 emissions in 2008 were responsible for less than 60% of total global CO2 emissions (1). Although the action of a moderate number of the largest emitters could have some effect, substantial reductions in climate risk will depend...
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  • 42
    Publication Date: 2011-12-14
    Description: In 2002, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization launched a program to recognize “globally important agricultural heritage systems” (1). However, so far, only eight systems have been included (1). In PNAS, the work by Xie et al. (2) reports the results of a 5-yr study of one of the systems, a farming system in south China, where for over 1,200 y, farmers have grown an indigenous species of common carp in their rice paddies. The methods used in this study are impressively thorough, but the purpose of the research is only incidentally to document an exotic agricultural heritage (2)....
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  • 43
    Publication Date: 2011-12-14
    Description: For centuries, traditional agricultural systems have contributed to food and livelihood security throughout the world. Recognizing the ecological legacy in the traditional agricultural systems may help us develop novel sustainable agriculture. We examine how rice–fish coculture (RF), which has been designated a “globally important agricultural heritage system,” has been maintained for over 1,200 y in south China. A field survey demonstrated that although rice yield and rice-yield stability are similar in RF and rice monoculture (RM), RF requires 68% less pesticide and 24% less chemical fertilizer than RM. A field experiment confirmed this result. We documented that a mutually beneficial relationship between rice and fish develops in RF: Fish reduce rice pests and rice favors fish by moderating the water environment. This positive relationship between rice and fish reduces the need for pesticides in RF. Our results also indicate a complementary use of nitrogen (N) between rice and fish in RF, resulting in low N fertilizer application and low N release into the environment. These findings provide unique insights into how positive interactions and complementary use of resource between species generate emergent ecosystem properties and how modern agricultural systems might be improved by exploiting synergies between species.
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  • 44
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    National Academy of Sciences
    Publication Date: 2011-12-14
    Description: During the past 250 y, the world has been gripped by periodic bouts of pessimism about our ability to feed ourselves. The first was prompted by Malthus’ (1) famous 1798 Essay on the Principle of Population and the realization of the power of exponential population growth. The economic transformation of the industrial revolution postponed the crisis although concern erupted again in the mid-20th century as populations boomed in low-income countries. However, the development of new crop varieties and agronomic practices that constituted the Green Revolution radically increased food production in the 1960s and 1970s. Indeed, until a few years ago,...
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  • 45
    Publication Date: 2011-12-14
    Description: International environmental regimes—especially those regimes articulated in multilateral environmental agreements—have been a subject of intense interest within the scientific community over the last three decades. However, there are substantial differences of opinion regarding the effectiveness of these governance systems or the degree to which they are successful in solving the problems leading to their creation. This article provides a critical review of the literature on this topic. It extracts and summarizes what is known about the effectiveness of environmental regimes in the form of a series of general and specific propositions. It identifies promising topics for consideration in the next phase of research in this field. Additionally, it comments on the research strategies available to pursue this line of analysis. The general conclusions are that international environmental regimes can and do make a difference, although often in conjunction with a number of other factors, and that a strategy of using a number of tools combined can help to improve understanding of the determinants of success.
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  • 46
    Publication Date: 2011-12-14
    Description: Global food demand is increasing rapidly, as are the environmental impacts of agricultural expansion. Here, we project global demand for crop production in 2050 and evaluate the environmental impacts of alternative ways that this demand might be met. We find that per capita demand for crops, when measured as caloric or protein content of all crops combined, has been a similarly increasing function of per capita real income since 1960. This relationship forecasts a 100–110% increase in global crop demand from 2005 to 2050. Quantitative assessments show that the environmental impacts of meeting this demand depend on how global agriculture expands. If current trends of greater agricultural intensification in richer nations and greater land clearing (extensification) in poorer nations were to continue, ∼1 billion ha of land would be cleared globally by 2050, with CO2-C equivalent greenhouse gas emissions reaching ∼3 Gt y−1 and N use ∼250 Mt y−1 by then. In contrast, if 2050 crop demand was met by moderate intensification focused on existing croplands of underyielding nations, adaptation and transfer of high-yielding technologies to these croplands, and global technological improvements, our analyses forecast land clearing of only ∼0.2 billion ha, greenhouse gas emissions of ∼1 Gt y−1, and global N use of ∼225 Mt y−1. Efficient management practices could substantially lower nitrogen use. Attainment of high yields on existing croplands of underyielding nations is of great importance if global crop demand is to be met with minimal environmental impacts.
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  • 47
    Publication Date: 2011-12-21
    Description: Emerging data indicate that rice consumption may lead to potentially harmful arsenic exposure. However, few human data are available, and virtually none exist for vulnerable periods such as pregnancy. Here we document a positive association between rice consumption and urinary arsenic excretion, a biomarker of recent arsenic exposure, in 229 pregnant women. At a 6-mo prenatal visit, we collected a urine sample and 3-d dietary record for water, fish/seafood, and rice. We also tested women's home tap water for arsenic, which we combined with tap water consumption to estimate arsenic exposure through water. Women who reported rice intake (n = 73) consumed a median of 28.3 g/d, which is ∼0.5 cup of cooked rice each day. In general linear models adjusted for age and urinary dilution, both rice consumption (g, dry mass/d) and arsenic exposure through water (μg/d) were significantly associated with natural log-transformed total urinary arsenic (, , both P 〈 0.0001), as well as inorganic arsenic, monomethylarsonic acid, and dimethylarsinic acid (each P 〈 0.005). Based on total arsenic, consumption of 0.56 cup/d of cooked rice was comparable to drinking 1 L/d of 10 μg As/L water, the current US maximum contaminant limit. US rice consumption varies, averaging ∼0.5 cup/d, with Asian Americans consuming an average of 〉2 cups/d. Rice arsenic content and speciation also vary, with some strains predominated by dimethylarsinic acid, particularly those grown in the United States. Our findings along with others indicate that rice consumption should be considered when designing arsenic reduction strategies in the United States.
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  • 48
    Publication Date: 2011-12-14
    Description: Globally, inadequate water supply, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) are major contributors to mortality and burden of disease. We aimed to quantify the role of WASH in the risk of Schistosoma hematobium, Schistosoma mansoni, and hookworm infection in school-aged children; to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) of helminth infection due to WASH; and to spatially predict the risk of infection. We generated predictive maps of areas in West Africa without piped water, toilet facilities, and improved household floor types, using spatial risk models. Our maps identified areas in West Africa where the millennium development goal for water and sanitation is lagging behind. There was a generally better geographical coverage for toilets and improved household floor types compared with water supply. These predictions, and their uncertainty, were then used as covariates in Bayesian geostatistical models for the three helminth species. We estimated a smaller attributable fraction for water supply in S. mansoni (PAF 47%) compared with S. hematobium (PAF 71%). The attributable fraction of S. hematobium infection due to natural floor type (PAF 21%) was comparable to that of S. mansoni (PAF 16%), but was significantly higher for hookworm infection (PAF 86%). Five percent of hookworm cases could have been prevented if improved toilet facilities had been available. Mapping the distribution of infection risk adjusted for WASH allowed the identification of communities in West Africa where preventive chemotherapy integrated with interventions to improve WASH will yield the greatest health benefits.
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  • 49
    Publication Date: 2011-12-21
    Description: After the collapse of international climate policy in Copenhagen in December 2009, the tale of geoengineering, promising end-of-the-chimney fixes for anthropogenic global warming, has become increasingly popular (1). This is essentially a tale of two fairies (2): the rather wicked one conjures up solar radiation management (SRM), and the tolerably good one delivers CO2 removal through schemes like industrial “air capture” (IAC). Unfortunately, a study by House et al. (3) pours lots of cold water on the hot IAC stuff. Most notably, the authors maintain that the total systems costs of IAC (factoring in all pertinent processes, materials, and structures)...
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  • 50
    Publication Date: 2011-10-12
    Description: Sustainably managing ecosystems is challenging, especially for complex systems such as coral reefs. This study develops critical reference points for sustainable management by using a large empirical dataset on the coral reefs of the western Indian Ocean to investigate associations between levels of target fish biomass (as an indicator of fishing intensity) and eight metrics of ecosystem state. These eight ecological metrics each exhibited specific thresholds along a continuum of fishable biomass ranging from heavily fished sites to old fisheries closures. Three thresholds lay above and five below a hypothesized window of fishable biomass expected to produce a maximum multispecies sustainable yield (BMMSY). Evaluating three management systems in nine countries, we found that unregulated fisheries often operate below the BMMSY, whereas fisheries closures and, less frequently, gear-restricted fisheries were within or above this window. These findings provide tangible management targets for multispecies coral reef fisheries and highlight key tradeoffs required to achieve different fisheries and conservation goals.
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 51
    Publication Date: 2011-12-07
    Description: The concepts of sustainable development have experienced extraordinary success since their advent in the 1980s. They are now an integral part of the agenda of governments and corporations, and their goals have become central to the mission of research laboratories and universities worldwide. However, it remains unclear how far the field has progressed as a scientific discipline, especially given its ambitious agenda of integrating theory, applied science, and policy, making it relevant for development globally and generating a new interdisciplinary synthesis across fields. To address these questions, we assembled a corpus of scholarly publications in the field and analyzed its temporal evolution, geographic distribution, disciplinary composition, and collaboration structure. We show that sustainability science has been growing explosively since the late 1980s when foundational publications in the field increased its pull on new authors and intensified their interactions. The field has an unusual geographic footprint combining contributions and connecting through collaboration cities and nations at very different levels of development. Its decomposition into traditional disciplines reveals its emphasis on the management of human, social, and ecological systems seen primarily from an engineering and policy perspective. Finally, we show that the integration of these perspectives has created a new field only in recent years as judged by the emergence of a giant component of scientific collaboration. These developments demonstrate the existence of a growing scientific field of sustainability science as an unusual, inclusive and ubiquitous scientific practice and bode well for its continued impact and longevity.
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 52
    Publication Date: 2011-12-07
    Description: Terrestrial wildlife is the primary source of meat for hundreds of millions of people throughout the developing world. Despite widespread human reliance on wildlife for food, the impact of wildlife depletion on human health remains poorly understood. Here we studied a prospective longitudinal cohort of 77 preadolescent children (under 12 y of age) in rural northeastern Madagascar and show that consuming more wildlife was associated with significantly higher hemoglobin concentrations. Our empirical models demonstrate that removing access to wildlife would induce a 29% increase in the numbers of children suffering from anemia and a tripling of anemia cases among children in the poorest households. The well-known progression from anemia to future disease demonstrates the powerful and far-reaching effects of lost wildlife access on a variety of human health outcomes, including cognitive, motor, and physical deficits. Loss of access to wildlife could arise either from the diligent enforcement of existing conservation policy or from unbridled unsustainable harvest, leading to depletion. Conservation enforcement would enact a more rapid restriction of resources, but self-depletion would potentially lead, albeit more slowly, both to irrevocable local wildlife extinctions and loss of the harvested resource. Our research quantifies costs of reduced access to wildlife for a rural community in Madagascar and illuminates pathways that may broadly link reduced natural resource access to declines in childhood health.
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 53
    Publication Date: 2011-08-18
    Description: Climate change is predicted to have major impacts on small-scale farmers in Mexico whose livelihoods depend on rain-fed maize. We examined the capacity of traditional maize seed systems to provide these farmers with appropriate genetic material under predicted agro-ecological conditions associated with climate change. We studied the structure and spatial scope of seed systems of 20 communities in four transects across an altitudinal gradient from 10–2,980 m above sea level in five states of eastern Mexico. Results indicate that 90% of all of the seed lots are obtained within 10 km of a community and 87% within an altitudinal range of ±50 m but with variation across four agro-climate environments: wet lowland, dry lowland, wet upper midlatitude, and highlands. Climate models suggest a drying and warming trend for the entire study area during the main maize season, leading to substantial shifts in the spatial distribution patterns of agro-climate environments. For all communities except those in the highlands, predicted future maize environments already are represented within the 10-km radial zones, indicating that in the future farmers will have easy access to adapted planting material. Farmers in the highlands are the most vulnerable and probably will need to acquire seed from outside their traditional geographical ranges. This change in seed sources probably will entail important information costs and the development of new seed and associated social networks, including improved linkages between traditional and formal seed systems and more effective and efficient seed-supply chains. The study has implications for analogous areas elsewhere in Mexico and around the world.
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
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    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 54
    Publication Date: 2011-08-24
    Description: Nature recreation in the United States concentrates in publicly provided natural areas. They are costly to establish and maintain, but their societal contributions are difficult to measure. Here, a unique approach is developed to quantifying nature recreation services generated by the US state park system. The assessment first uses data from five national surveys conducted between 1975 and 2007 to consistently measure the amount of time used for nature recreation. The surveys comprise two official federal surveys and their predecessors. Each survey was designed to elicit nationally representative, detailed data on how people divide their time into different activities. State-level data on time use for nature recreation were then matched with information on the availability of state parks and other potentially important drivers of recreation, so that statistical estimation methods for nonexperimental panel data (difference-in-differences) could be used to examine the net contribution of state parks to nature recreation. The results show that state parks have a robust positive effect on nature recreation. For example, the approximately 2 million acres of state parks established between 1975 and 2007 are estimated to contribute annually 600 million hours of nature recreation (2.7 h per capita, approximately 9% of all nature recreation). All state parks generate annually an estimated 2.2 billion hours of nature recreation (9.7 h per capita; approximately 33% of all nature recreation). Using conventional approaches to valuing time, the estimated time value of nature recreation services generated by the US state park system is approximately $14 billion annually.
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
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  • 55
    Publication Date: 2011-10-05
    Description: We assess the economic value of life-cycle air emissions and oil consumption from conventional vehicles, hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles in the US. We find that plug-in vehicles may reduce or increase externality costs relative to grid-independent HEVs, depending largely on greenhouse gas and SO2 emissions produced during vehicle charging and battery manufacturing. However, even if future marginal damages from emissions of battery and electricity production drop dramatically, the damage reduction potential of plug-in vehicles remains small compared to ownership cost. As such, to offer a socially efficient approach to emissions and oil consumption reduction, lifetime cost of plug-in vehicles must be competitive with HEVs. Current subsidies intended to encourage sales of plug-in vehicles with large capacity battery packs exceed our externality estimates considerably, and taxes that optimally correct for externality damages would not close the gap in ownership cost. In contrast, HEVs and PHEVs with small battery packs reduce externality damages at low (or no) additional cost over their lifetime. Although large battery packs allow vehicles to travel longer distances using electricity instead of gasoline, large packs are more expensive, heavier, and more emissions intensive to produce, with lower utilization factors, greater charging infrastructure requirements, and life-cycle implications that are more sensitive to uncertain, time-sensitive, and location-specific factors. To reduce air emission and oil dependency impacts from passenger vehicles, strategies to promote adoption of HEVs and PHEVs with small battery packs offer more social benefits per dollar spent.
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 56
    Publication Date: 2011-08-31
    Description: The ecological risks of salmon aquaculture have motivated changes to management and policy designed to protect wild salmon populations and habitats in several countries. In Canada, much attention has focused on outbreaks of parasitic copepods, sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis), on farmed and wild salmon in the Broughton Archipelago, British Columbia. Several recent studies have reached contradictory conclusions on whether the spread of lice from salmon farms affects the productivity of sympatric wild salmon populations. We analyzed recently available sea lice data on farms and spawner–recruit data for pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) and coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) salmon populations in the Broughton Archipelago and nearby regions where farms are not present. Our results show that sea lice abundance on farms is negatively associated with productivity of both pink and coho salmon in the Broughton Archipelago. These results reconcile the contradictory findings of previous studies and suggest that management and policy measures designed to protect wild salmon from sea lice should yield conservation and fishery benefits.
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
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    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
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  • 57
    Publication Date: 2011-08-18
    Description: Over 13 million ha of former cropland are enrolled in the US Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), providing well-recognized biodiversity, water quality, and carbon (C) sequestration benefits that could be lost on conversion back to agricultural production. Here we provide measurements of the greenhouse gas consequences of converting CRP land to continuous corn, corn–soybean, or perennial grass for biofuel production. No-till soybeans preceded the annual crops and created an initial carbon debt of 10.6 Mg CO2 equivalents (CO2e)·ha−1 that included agronomic inputs, changes in C stocks, altered N2O and CH4 fluxes, and foregone C sequestration less a fossil fuel offset credit. Total debt, which includes future debt created by additional changes in soil C stocks and the loss of substantial future soil C sequestration, can be constrained to 68 Mg CO2e·ha−1 if subsequent crops are under permanent no-till management. If tilled, however, total debt triples to 222 Mg CO2e·ha−1 on account of further soil C loss. Projected C debt repayment periods under no-till management range from 29 to 40 y for corn–soybean and continuous corn, respectively. Under conventional tillage repayment periods are three times longer, from 89 to 123 y, respectively. Alternatively, the direct use of existing CRP grasslands for cellulosic feedstock production would avoid C debt entirely and provide modest climate change mitigation immediately. Incentives for permanent no till and especially permission to harvest CRP biomass for cellulosic biofuel would help to blunt the climate impact of future CRP conversion.
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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