ALBERT

Notes: The use of uncertainty factors in the standard method for deriving acceptable intake or exposure limits for humans, such as the Reference Dose (RfD), may be viewed as a conservative method of taking various uncertainties into account. As an obvious alternative, the use of uncertainty distributions instead of uncertainty factors is gaining attention. This paper presents a comprehensive discussion of a general framework that quantifies both the uncertainties in the no-adverse-effect level in the animal (using a benchmark-like approach) and the uncertainties in the various extrapolation steps involved (using uncertainty distributions). This approach results in an uncertainty distribution for the no-adverse-effect level in the sensitive human subpopulation, reflecting the overall scientific uncertainty associated with that level. A lower percentile of this distribution may be regarded as an acceptable exposure limit (e.g., RfD) that takes account of the various uncertainties in a nonconservative fashion. The same methodology may also be used as a tool to derive a distribution for possible human health effects at a given exposure level. We argue that in a probabilistic approach the uncertainty in the estimated no-adverse-effect-level in the animal should be explicitly taken into account. Not only is this source of uncertainty too large to be ignored, it also has repercussions for the quantification of the other uncertainty distributions.

Notes: This research explores public judgments about the threat-reducing potential of experts, individual behavior, and government spending. The data are responses of a national sample of 1225 to mail surveys that include measures of several dimensions of public judgments about violent crime, automobile accidents, hazardous chemical waste, air pollution, water pollution, global warming, AIDS, heart disease, and cancer. Beliefs about who can best mitigate threats are specific to classes of threats. In general, there is little faith that experts can do much about violent crime and automobile accidents, moderate faith in their ability to address problems of global warming, and greater expectations for expert solutions to the remaining threats. People judge individual behavior as effective in reducing the threats of violent crime, AIDS, heart disease, and automobile accidents but less so for the remaining threats. Faith in more government spending is highest for AIDS and the other two health items, lowest for the trio of violent crime, automobile accidents, and global warming, and moderate for the remaining threats. For most threats, people are not distributed at the extremes in judging mitigators. Strong attitudinal and demographic cleavages are also lacking, although some interesting relationships occur. This relative lack of sharp cleavages and the generally moderate opinion indicate ample opportunity for public education and risk communication.

Notes: Recreational and subsistence hunters and anglers consume a wide range of species, including birds, mammals, fish and shellfish, some of which represent significant exposure pathways for environmental toxic agents. This study focuses on the Department of Energy's (DOE'S) Savannah River Site (SRS), a former nuclear weapons production facility in South Carolina. The potential risk of contaminant intake from consuming mourning doves (Zenaida macroura), the most popular United States game bird, was examined under various risk scenarios. For all of these scenarios we used the mean tissue concentration of six metals (lead, mercury, cadmium, selenium, chromium, manganese) and radiocesium, in doves collected on and near SRS. We also estimated risk to a child consuming doves that had the maximum contaminant level. We used the cancer slope factor for radiocesium, the Environmental Protection Agencies UptakeBiokinetic model for lead, and published reference doses for the other metals. As a result of our risk assessments we recommend management of water levels in contaminated reservoirs so that lake bed sediments are not exposed to use by gamebirds and other terrestrial wildlife. Particularly, measures should be taken to insure that the hunting public does not have access to such a site. Our data also indicate that doves on popular hunting areas are exposed to excess lead, suggesting that banning lead shot for doves, as has been done for waterfowl, is desirable.

Notes: Exposure duration is an important component in determining long-term dose rates associated with exposure to environmental contaminants. Surveys of exposed populations collect information on individuals' past behaviors, including the durations of a behavior up to the time of the survey. This paper presents an empirical approach for determining the distribution of total durations that is consistent with the distribution past durations obtained from surveys. This approach is appropriate where the rates of beginning and ending a behavior are relatively constant over time. The approach allows the incorporation of information on the distribution of age in a population into the determination of the distribution of durations. The paper also explores the impact of “longevity” bias on survey data. A case study of the application of this approach to two angler populations is also provided. The results of the case study have characteristics similar to the results reported by Israeli and Nelson (Risk Anal. 12, 65-72 (1992)) from their analytical model of residential duration. Specifically, the average period of time for the total duration in the entire population is shorter than the average period of time reported for historical duration in the surveyed individuals.

Notes: Information format can influence the extent to which target audiences understand and respond to risk-related information. This study examined four elements of risk information presentation format. Using printed materials, we examined target audience perceptions about: (a) reading level; (b) use of diagrams vs. text; (c) commanding versus cajoling tone; and (d) use of qualitative vs. quantitative information presented in a risk ladder. We used the risk communication topic of human health concerns related to eating noncommercial Great Lakes fish affected by chemical contaminants. Results from the comparisons of specific communication formats indicated that multiple formats are required to meet the needs of a significant percent of anglers for three of the four format types examined. Advisory text should be reviewed to ensure the reading level is geared to abilities of the target audience. For many audiences, a combination of qualitative and quantitative information, and a combination of diagrams and text may be most effective. For most audiences, a cajoling rather than commanding tone better provides them with the information they need to make a decision about fish consumption. Segmenting audiences regarding information needs and communication formats may help clarify which approaches to take with each audience.

Notes: Using exploratory data analysis, probability plots, scatterplots, and computer animations to rotate and visualize the data, we fit a trivariate Normal distribution to data for the height, the natural logarithm of body weight, and the body fat for 646 men between the ages of 50 and 80 years as reported by the medical staff of the U.S. Veterans Administration's “Normative Aging Study” in Boston, MA. Although these data do not include any children, women, or young men, the measurements represent the best data that we could find through a 4-year search. We believe that these data are well measured and reliable for men in the specified age range and that these data reveal an interesting statistical pattern for use in probabilistic PBPK models.

Notes: Significant research work has been completed in the development of risk-based inservice inspection (ISI) and testing (IST) technology for nuclear power plant applications through the ASME Center For Research and Technology Development. This paper provides technology that has been developed for these engineering applications. The technology includes risk-based ranking methods, beginning with the use of plant probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), for the determination of risk-significant and less risk-significant components for inspection and the determination of similar populations for pumps and valves for inservice testing. Decision analysis methods are outlined for developing ISI and IST programs. This methodology integrates nondestructive examination data, structural reliability/risk assessment results, PRA results, failure data, and expert opinion to evaluate the effectiveness of ISI programs. Similarly, decision analysis uses the output of failure mode and causes analysis in combination with data, expert opinion, and PRA results to evaluate the effectiveness of IST programs. Results of pilot applications of these ASME methods to actual nuclear plant systems and components are summarized. The results of this work are already being used to develop recommended changes in ISI and IST requirements by the ASME Section XI and the ASME Operation and Maintenance Code organizations. A perspective on Code and regulatory adoption is also outlined. Finally, the potential benefits to the nuclear industry in terms of safety, person-rem exposure, and costs are summarized.

Notes: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is a methodology that estimates the likelihood that various levels of earthquake-caused ground motions will be exceeded at a given location in a given future time period. Due to large uncertainties in all of the geosciences data and in their modeling, multiple model interpretations are often possible. This leads to disagreements among the experts, which in the past has led to disagreement on the selection of a ground motion for design at a given site. This paper reports on a project, co-sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the Electric Power Research Institute, that was undertaken to review the state-of-the-art and improve on the overall stability of the PSHA process, by providing methodological guidance on how to perform a PSHA. The project reviewed past studies and examined ways to improve on the present state-of-the-art. In analyzing past PSHA studies, the most important conclusion is that differences in PSHA results are commonly due to process rather than technical differences. Thus, the project concentrated heavily on developing process recommendations, especially on the use of multiple experts, and this paper reports on those process recommendations. The problem of facilitating and integrating the judgments of a diverse group of experts is analyzed in detail. The authors believe that the concepts and process principles apply just as well to non-earthquake fields such as volcanic hazard, flood risk, nuclear-plant safety, and climate change.

Notes: Trichloroacetic acid (TCA) is major metabolite of trichloroethylene (TRI) thought to contribute to its hepatocarcinogenic effects in mice. Recent studies have shown that peak blood concentrations of TCA in rats do not occur until approximately 12 hours following an oral dose of TRI. However, blood concentrations of TRI reach maximum within an hour and are nondetectable after 2 hours.(1) The results of study which examined the enterohepatic recirculation (EHC) of the principle TRI metabolited(2) was used to develop physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model for TRI, which includes enterohepatic recirculation of its metabolites. The model quantitatively predicts the uptake, distribution and elimination of TRI, trichloroethanol, trichloroethanol-glucuronide, and TCA and includes production of metabolites through the enterohepatic recirculation pathway. Physiologic parameters used in the model were obtained from the literature.(3.4) Parameters for TRI metabolism were taken from Fisher et al.(5) Other kinetic parameters were found in the literature or estimated from experimental data.(2) The model was calibrated to data from experiments of an earlier study where TRI was orally administered(2) Verification of the model was conducted using data on the enterohepatic recirculation of TCEOH and TCA(2) chloral hydrate data (infusion doses) from Merdink,(1) and TRI data from Templin(l) and Larson and Bull.(1)

Notes: Estimates were made of the numbers of liver carcinogens in 390 long-term bioassays conducted by the National Toxicology Program (NTP). These estimates were obtained from examination of the global pattern of p-values obtained from statistical tests applied to individual bioassays. Representative estimates of the number of liver carcinogens (90% confidence interval in parentheses) obtained in our analysis compared to NTP's determination are as follows: female rats—49 (23, 76), NTP = 30; male rats—88 (59, 116), NTP = 35; female mice—131 (105, 157), NTP = 81; male mice—100 (73, 126), NTP = 61; overall—166 (135, 197), NTP = 108. The estimator from which these estimates were obtained is biased low by an unknown amount. Consequently, this study provides persuasive evidence of the existence of more rodent liver carcinogens than were identified by the NTP.

Notes: In north-central Wopmay Orogen, syntectonic low-P(Buchan-type) suites of mineral isograds outline regional metamorphic temperature culminations that are associated, at the higher structural levels, with emplacement of early Proterozoic plutons in the west part of a deformed and eastward transported continental margin prism. The mapped isograds mark the first occurrence of biotite, staurolite, andalusite, sillimanite, sillimanite-K feldspar and K feldspar-plagioclase-quartz ± muscovite (granitic) pods in metapelites, with increasing proximity to the plutons.Microprobe analyses and field observations have resulted in the formulation of reactions for the ‘ideal’pelitic system K2O-Na2O-FeO-MgO-Al2O3-SiO2-H2O-Al2O3-SiO2-H2O, to account for the various mineral assemblages of each metamorphic zone. A P-T petrogenetic grid showing erosion surface P-T curves for the northern Wopmay Orogen pelites, compiled on the basis of the mapped isograds and the inferred reaction(s) for each metamorphic zone, documents a variation in exposed metamorphic pressure ranging between 2 and 4 kbar.The configuration of a new bathograd, based on the invariant model reaction sillimanite + K feldspar + plagioclase + biotite + quartz + vapor ± muscovite + liquid and interpolated across three metamorphic suites, is consistent with a major regional structure culmination and with independently determined pressures obtained from anorthite-grossular-quartz-Al2SiO5 geobarometry. The positive correlation between the configuration of the bathograd and the structural and pressure culmination points to the pressure-dependence of anatectic-granitic-pod mineral associations.

Notes: Variations in assemblage and composition of the constituent minerals in basic and intermediate metavolcanics encountered in the Zarouchla Group of the Phyllite-Quartzite Series are consistent with a progressive sequence, corresponding to temperature conditions estimated at 290-380°C (minimum values) under a total pressure greater than 3°5kbar and possibly as high as 5 kbar. In the absence of more critical evidence, the parageneses recorded in the metavolcanic rocks are interpreted as belonging to a prograde facies series from the lawsonite-albitechlorite facies through the pumpellyite-actinolite facies to the greenschist facies. The present distribution of mineral assemblages does not show a simple increase of metamorphic grade in a given direction but is apparently related to the tectonic evolution of the metamorphic sequence.

Notes: Abstract Mylonites from shear zones cutting Hercynian gneisses in the central Pyrenees have been studied in thin section and using the electron microprobe. The shear zones contain retrogressive greenschist facies assemblages implying introduction of an aqueous fluid during deformation in the zones. Textural evidence suggests that fluid-rock interaction occurred throughout the active life of the shear zones.Whole-rock chemical changes during deformation are documented in a variety of mylonitic lithologies and retrogressed country rocks. The overall effect was to reduce chemical differences between lithologies. Activity diagrams show that this would be expected if a hydrous fluid was circulating between different lithologies during deformation. In most cases fluid/rock ratios were relatively small resulting in gradual chemical changes and repeated recrystallization. ‘Open-system’behaviour with reduction in the number of phases is seen in some granite mylonites, suggesting focusing of fluid movement in parts of the shear zones. Continual fluid-rock interaction may have led to reaction-enhanced ductility in the shear zones over a long period of time. The source of fluid is uncertain, but may be related to underthrusting of material beneath the area investigated.

Notes: Abstract The hornblende-bearing basic gneisses in the Uvete area, central Kenya, were metamorphosed under a narrow range of P and T (6.5 ± 0.5kbar and 530 ± 40°C) of the staurolitekyanite zone in the Mozambique metamorphic belt. They show a wide variety of divariant and trivariant mineral assemblages consisting of hornblende, cumminatonite, gedrite, anthophyllite, chlorite, garnet, epidote, clinopyroxene, plagio-clase and quartz. The bulk and mineral chemistries and the graphical representation of phase relations show that each mineral assemblage approaches chemical equilibrium and defines a unique composition volume in the A′(Al + Fe3+− (13/7)Na)-F(Fe2+)-M′(Mg)-C′(Ca-(3/7)Na) tetrahedron. The composition volumes are distributed quite regularly and do not overlap each other.The phase relations in the Uvete area are in contrast with those in the staurolite-kyanite zone amphibolites in the Mt. Cube quadrangle, Vermont. The amphibolites there contain low-variance mineral assemblages formed under different values of μH2O and μCO2. These assemblages define overlapping composition volumes in the A′-F′-M′-C’tetrahedron.The mineral assemblages in the Uvete area are interpreted as having formed in equilibrium with fluid at a high and nearly constant μH2O value. Such a fluid composition was externally controlled by the supply of H2O-rich fluid expelled from the surrounding pelitic and psammitic rocks. The body size of the basic gneisses in the Uvete area (less than 400m in thickness) was small enough for the fluid to migrate completely.

Notes: Abstract Blueschist-facies rocks on the Seward Peninsula constitute a structurally coherent terrane measuring at least 100 × 150 km. Radiometric age data indicate that high-pressure metamorphism probably occurred in Jurassic rather than in Palaeozoic or Precambrian time, as previously suggested. Protolith sediments (Nome Group) are of intracontinental basin or continental margin type, and of lower Palaeozoic and possibly late Precambrian age, thus predating the high pressure metamorphism by more than 200 m.y.Blueschist-facies mineral assemblages were developed in almost all lithologies of the Nome Group, and are best preserved in FeTi-rich metabasites (glaucophane + almandine + epidote) and pelites (glaucophane + chloritoid + phengite). A lawsonite–crossite subfacies was developed in possible Nome Group rocks on the east flank of the Darby Mountains. Albite–epidote–amphibolite facies assemblages characterize Nome Group rocks in the southwestern part of the Peninsula. Metamorphism in the central zone of the terrane passed from early lawsonitic to subsequent epidote–almandine–glaucophane schist subfacies with the local development (east of the Nome River) of eclogitic assemblages.The high pressure metamorphic minerals were synkinematic with the development of mesoscopic-scale intrafolial isoclinal folds and a flattening foliation of consistent orientation. Initiation of uplift probably corresponded to the growth of barroisite rims on earlier sodic and actinolitic amphiboles, and partial post-kinematic greenschist facies replacements record later stages of decompression. Ophiolites and melange are not associated with the Seward Peninsula blueschists. The high-pressure metamorphism was caused by tectonic loading of a continental plate by an allochthon of indeterminate origin. The PT conditions of high pressure metamorphism were approximately 9–11 kbar, 400–450°C, thus falling between the PT paths of the Shuksan and Franciscan terranes.

Notes: Abstract Two periods of garnet growth (Gt1 and Gt2) have been found in the Finnmarkian nappes of north Norway. In the Kolvik Nappe (the lowest nappe) Gt1 has preserved an S2 syntectonic spiral inclusion fabric; in the Olderfjord Nappe an earlier S1 fabric and an interkinematic inter-D1–D2 fabric have been preserved in Gt1 whilst only the S1 fabric has been found in Gt1 in the Brennsvik Nappe (the highest nappe). In each nappe Gt2 overgrew a penetrative fabric (S2) wrapped around Gt1. In the Kolvik Nappe inclusion fabrics may be continuous from Gt1 into Gt2 but in the higher nappes there is a distinct break. Gt2 may have been partially syntectonic with D3 in the Brennsvik Nappe.Chemically Gt1 in the Kolvik Nappe and in parts of the Olderfjord and Brennsvik Nappes has antithetic Fe-Mn zoning. In all nappes XCa and XMg are weakly zoned in Gt1; XMg increases outwards and is greater in the higher nappes in Gt1 suggesting higher nucleation temperatures. In the Olderfjord and Brennsvik Nappes Gt2 is marked by increasing XCa, probably due to changing garnet-plagioclase equilibria, although the Fe/Mg ratio remains constant. XMg is higher in Gt2 than Gt1.Basement rocks within the nappe pile have an early pre-Finnmarkian growth (Gt1) and a later Finnmarkian growth (GtH) correlated with Gt2 on the basis of chemical zoning patterns.The diachroneity of Gt1 is ascribed to progressively earlier (compared to the structural development) cessation of overstepping of garnet-forming reactions before peak metamorphism in the higher nappes, resulting in earlier structural events being preserved.

Notes: Abstract Fluid inclusion studies of rocks from the late Archaean amphibolite-facies to granulite-facies transition zone of southern India provide support for the hypothesis that CO2,-rich H2O-poor fluids were a major factor in the origin of the high-grade terrain. Charnockites, closely associated leucogranites and quartzo-feldspathic veins contain vast numbers of large CO2-rich inclusions in planar arrays in quartz and feldspar, whereas amphibole-bearing gray gneisses of essentially the same compositions as adjacent charnockites in mixed-facies quarries contain no large fluid inclusions. Inclusions in the northernmost incipient charnockites, as at Kabbal, Karnataka, occasionally contain about 25 mol. % of immiscible H2O lining cavity walls, whereas inclusions from the charnockite massif terrane farther south do not have visibile H2OMicrothermometry of CO2 inclusions shows that miscible CH4 and N2 must be small, probably less than 10mol.%combined. Densities of CO2 increase steadily from north to south across the transitional terrane. Entrapment pressures calculated from the CO2 equation of state range from 5 kbar in the north to 7.5 kbar in the south at the mineralogically inferred average metamorphic temperature of 750°C, in quantitative agreement with mineralogic geobarometry. This agreement leads to the inference that the fluid inclusions were trapped at or near peak metamorphic conditions.Calculations on the stability of the charnockite assemblage biotite-orthopyroxene-K-feldspar-quartz show that an associated fluid phase must have less than 0.35 H2O activity at the inferred P and T conditions, which agrees with the petrographic observations. High TiO2 content of biotite stabilizes it to lower H2O activities, and the steady increase of biotite TiO2 southward in the area suggests progressive decrease of aH2O with increasing grade. Oxygen fugacities calculated from orthopyroxene-magnetite-quartz are considerably higher than the graphite CO2-O2 buffer, which explains the absence of graphite in the charnockites.The present study quantifies the nature of the vapours in the southern India granulite metamorphism. It remains to be determined whether CO2-flushing of the crust can, by itself, create large terranes of largeion lithophile-depleted granulites, or whether removal of H2O-bearing anatectic melts is essential.

Notes: Abstract There are discrete masses of un-deformed metabasite within the blueschist series of the island of Syros. Greece. Around the margins of these masses are zonal sequences through rocks showing intracrystalline deformation but without a geometric fabric, to rocks with discrete and anastomosing shear zones, and finally to penetratively foliated rocks with isolated relics of the original undeformed texture. Textural relics suggest that this spatial sequence is at least qualitatively also a temporal sequence.This progressive shear zone deformation took place concurrently with a glaucophane-epidote to eclogite reaction. The reaction pathways in the rocks that underwent the shear zone deformation can be compared with those in rocks of a similar composition that suffered a longer deformation history and show no relics of an undeformed parent. Although the final assemblages are in both cases the same, the pathways are different. These differences are in part related to reactions promoted by the change from local to bulk equilibrium on the onset of deformation in the rocks. They are also related to the crystallization and later breakdown during the sequence of progressive equilibration of a metastable phase, in this case an impure glaucophane.

Notes: Abstract The Rockley Volcanics from near Oberon, New South Wales occur within the aureole of the Carboniferous Bathurst Batholith and have been contact metamorphosed at P ∼ 100 ± 50MPa (10.5kbar) and a maximum T ∼ 565°C in the presence of a C–O–H fluid. Prior to contact metamorphism the volcanics were regionally metamorphosed and altered with the extensive development of actinolite, chlorite, plagioclase, quartz and calcite. The contact metamorphosed equivalents of these rocks have been subdivided into: Ca-poor (cordierite + gedrite), Mg-rich (amphibole + olivine + spinel), mafic (amphibole + plagioclase) and Ca-rich (amphibole + garnet + diopside; diopside + plagioclase; garnet + diopside + wollastonite) rocks.The chemistry of the minerals in the hornfelses was controlled by the bulk rock chemistry and fluid composition. Pargasites and hastingsites as well as an unusual phlogopite with blue green pleochroism, are found in Ca-rich hornfelses. A comparison of the assemblages with experimentally derived equilibria suggests that the fluid phase associated with the Ca-rich hornfelses was water-rich (Xco2= 0.1 to 0.3) while that associated with the Mg-rich hornfelses was enriched in CO2 (Xco2 〉 0.7). The different hornfels types have reacted to contact metamorphism independently in both their solid and fluid chemistries.

Notes: Abstract A garnet–hornblende Fe–Mg exchange geothermometer has been calibrated against the garnet–clinopyroxene geothermometer of Ellis & Green (1979) using data on coexisting garnet + hornblende + clinopyroxene in amphibolite and granulite facies metamorphic assemblages. Data for the Fe–Mg exchange reaction between garnet and hornblende have been fitted to the equation. In KD=Δ (XCa,g) where KD is the Fe–Mg distribution coefficient, using a robust regression approach, giving a thermometer of the form: with very satisfactory agreement between garnet–hornblende and garnet–clinopyroxene temperatures. The thermometer is applicable below about 850°C to rocks with Mn-poor garnet and common hornblende of widely varying chemistry metamorphosed at low aO2.Application of the garnet–hornblende geothermometer to Dalradian garnet amphibolites gives temperatures in good agreement with those predicted by pelite petrogenetic grids, ranging from 520°C for the lower garnet zone to 565–610°C for the staurolite to kyanite zones. These results suggest that systematic errors introduced by closure temperature problems in the application of the garnet–clinopyroxene geothermometer to the ‘calibration’data set are not serious. Application to ‘eclogitic’garnet amphibolites suggests that garnet and hornblende seldom attain Fe–Mg exchange equilibrium in these rocks.Quartzo-feldspathic and mafic schists of the Pelona Schist on Sierra Pelona, Southern California, were metamorphosed under high pressure greenschist, epidote–amphibolite and (oligoclase) amphibolite facies beneath the Vincent Thrust at pressures deduced to be 10±1 kbar using the phengite geobarometer, and 8–9kbar using the jadeite content of clinopyroxene in equilibrium with oligoclase and quartz. Application of the garnet–hornblende thermometer gives temperatures ranging from about 480°C at the garnet isograd through 570°C at the oligoclase isograd to a maximum of 620–650°C near the thrust. Inverted thermal gradients beneath the Vincent Thrust were in the range 170 to 250°C per km close to the thrust.

Notes: Evaluating alternatives for restoring the Everglades involves analysis of a complex ecological and economic system for which current knowledge is limited. Uncertain benefits and impacts are analyzed probabilistically in this paper, following otherwise accepted principles of net present value (NPV) analysis. Ecological benefits and impacts were considered in monetary terms. Probabilities for selected uncertain parameters were found by maximizing entropy. The first ecological risk conceptual model for the Everglades ecosystem was developed to show ecological interactions. “Current Plans” for restoration involve discharge of phosphorus-enriched water from artificial wetlands to relatively pristine Everglades marshes for 3–10 years, risking conversion of the ecosystem to a eutrophic cattail marsh. For two of the three areas studied, alternative “Bypass Plans” were shown to avoid the loss of up to 3000 acres of sawgrass marsh at a cost that is probabilistically justified by the value of the ecosystem preserved. Sensitivity of the results to projected ecological changes, eutrophic marsh valuation, natural marsh valuation, and future values as represented in the discount rate, was examined.

Notes: The motivation of the present work is to provide an auxiliary tool for the decision-maker (DM) faced with predictive model uncertainty. The tool is especially suited for the allocation of R&Dresources. When taking decisions under uncertainties, making use of the output from mathematical or computational models, the DM might be helped if the uncertainty in model predictions be decomposed in a quantitative-rather than qualitativefashion, apportioning uncertainty according to source. This would allow optimal use of resources to reduce the imprecision in the prediction. For complex models, such a decomposition of the uncertainty into constituent elements could be impractical as such, due to the large number of parameters involved. If instead parameters could be grouped into logical subsets, then the analysis could be more useful, also because the decision maker might likely have different perceptions (and degrees of acceptance) for different kinds of uncertainty. For instance, the decomposition in groups could involve one subset of factors for each constituent module of the model; or one set for the weights, and one for the factors in a multicriteria analysis; or phenomenological parameters of the model vs. factors driving the model configuratiodstructure aggregation level, etc.); finally, one might imagine that a partition of the uncertainty could be sought between stochastic (or aleatory) and subjective (or epistemic) uncertainty. The present note shows how to compute rigorous decomposition of the output's variance with grouped parameters, and how this approach may be beneficial for the efficiency and transparency of the analysis.

Notes: The concept of vulnerability of complex industrial systems is defined and discussed in relation to risk and system survivability. The discussion is illustrated by referring to a number of previous industrial accidents. The various risk factors, or threats, influencing an industrial system's vulnerability are classified and discussed. Both internal and external threats are covered. The general scope of vulnerability analysis is compared to traditional risk analysis approaches and main differences are illustrated. A general procedure for vulnerability analysis in two steps, including building of scenarios and preparation of relevant worksheets, is described and discussed.

Notes: The current safety criteria for a high hazard dam focus on protecting the dam during a large flood. While protecting the dam does help to protect downstream people and property, the two objectives are not the same. Instead, the criteria should focus on lowering property damage (including damage to the dam) and preventing flood deaths.High hazard dams must survive a design flood in the current safety criteria. However, experts don't agree on the size of the peak flow that meets this criteria.Statistical hydrologists have proposed an alternative to using professional judgment to specify the design flood. Unfortunately, peak flow distributions cannot be estimated with confidence for extreme floods given available data.A major safety goal is to prevent deaths from floods. Preventing deaths is a major reason for constructing the spillway to handle extreme floods so that the dam doesn't fail due to overtopping. However, even if the dam doesn't fail, the spilled floods could cause many deaths. A better approach is to warn people to get them out of harm's way if a flood is coming.Retrofitting existing dams that could pass a “probable maximum flood” (PMF) when built is almost never a good use of funds. Instead, funds would be spent better by focusing on preventing damage from small floods, lowering the damage from medium-sized floods, and warning people in the event of a flood that could pose risks to life.

Notes: This paper describes and illustrates the architecture of computer-based Dynamic Risk Management Systems (DRMS) designed to assist real-time risk management decisions for complex physical systems, for example, engineered systems such as offshore platforms or medical systems such as patient treatment in Intensive Care Units. A key characteristic of the DRMSs that we describe is that they are hybrid, combining the powers of Probabilistic Risk Analysis methods and heuristic Artificial Intelligence techniques. A control module determines whether the situation corresponds to a specific rule or regulation, and is clear enough or urgent enough for an expert system to make an immediate recommendation without further analysis of the risks involved. Alternatively, if time permits and if the uncertainties justify it, a risk and decision analysis module formulates and evaluates options, including that of gathering further information. This feature is particularly critical since, most of the time, the physical system is only partially observable, i.e., the signals observed may not permit unambiguous characterization of its state. The DRMS structure is also dynamic in that, for a given time window (e.g., 1 day or 1 hour), it anticipates the physical system's state (and, when appropriate, performs a risk analysis) accounting for its evolution, its mode of operations, the predicted external loads and problems, and the possible changes in the set of available options. Therefore, we specifically address the issue of dynamic information gathering for decision-making purposes. The concepts are illustrated focusing on the risk and decision analysis modules for a particular case of real-time risk management on board offshore oil platforms, namely of two types of gas compressor leaks, one progressive and one catastrophic. We describe briefly the DRMS proof-of-concept produced at Stanford, and the prototype (ARMS) that is being constructed by Bureau Veritas (Paris) based on these concepts.

Notes: Identifying the causes of accidents is a necessary prerequisite for preventive action. Some research suggests however that the analysis of accidents does not only differ between experts and laymen but that it is also linked to certain characteristics inherent in the analyst and in the social group to which he belongs: beliefs, value systems, norms, experiences in common, attitudes, roles, social and technical practices, etc. Culturally determined bias seems to affect the perception of risk and the causes of accidents. This article presents a certain number of thoughts and results based upon research carried out on causal attributions of traffic accidents in The Ivory Coast (West Africa) and discusses the importance of culture in risk-taking and accident prevention. It shows in particular that fatalistic beliefs and mystical practices influence the perception of accidents and consequently incite one to take more risks and neglect safety measures.

Notes: Since substantial bias can result from assigning some type of mean exposure to a group, risk assessments based on epidemiological data should avoid the grouping of data whenever possible. However, ungrouped data are frequently unavailable, and the question arises as to whether an arithmetic or geometric mean is the most appropriate summary measure of exposure. It is argued in this paper that one should use the type of mean for which the total risk that would result if every member of the population was exposed to the mean level is as close as possible to the actual total population risk. Using this criterion an arithmetic mean is always preferred over a geometric mean whenever the dose response is convex. In each of several data sets examined in this paper for which the dose response was not convex, an arithmetic mean was still preferred based on this criterion.

Notes: Developmental anomalies resulting from prenatal toxicity can be manifested in terms of both malformations among surviving offspring and prenatal death. Although these two endpoints have traditionally been analyzed separately in the assessment of risk, multivariate methods of risk characterization have recently been proposed. We examined this and other issues in developmental toxicity risk assessment by evaluating the accuracy and precision of estimates of the effective dose (ED05) and the benchmark dose (BMD05) using computer simulation. Our results indicated that different variance structures (Dirichlet-trinomial and generalized linear model) used to characterize overdispersion yielded comparable results when fitting joint dose response models based on generalized estimating equations. (The choice of variance structure in separate modeling was also not critical.) However, using the Rao-Scott transformation to eliminate overdispersion tended to produce estimates of the ED05 with reduced bias and mean squared error. Because joint modeling ensures that the ED05 for overall toxicity (based on both malformations and prenatal death) is always less than the ED05 for either malformations or prenatal death, joint modeling is preferred to separate modeling for risk assessment purposes.

Notes: Nineteen Senior Managers of a major chemical company in the United Kingdom participated in a survey to determine their attitudes, beliefs, and perceptions regarding risks from chemicals. Similar surveys had previously been conducted with toxicologists and members of the general public in the United States and Canada. In general, the Senior Managers tended to judge risks to be quite small for most chemicals. Moreover, they had lower risk perceptions than did members of the British Toxicological Society and even far lower perceptions of risk than a comparison group of members of the Canadian public. The managers held views that were similar to British toxicologists working in industry and government and dissimilar to the views of toxicologists working in academia. The observed differences between views of managers, toxicologists, and the public must be recognized and understood in order to facilitate communication and constructive efforts to manage chemical risks.

Notes: The construction industry is both the largest civilian industry and the most unique in terms of fragmentation and its approach to controlling risk. Structural specifications establish nominal safety factors and design criteria for engineered structures such as buildings, bridges, dams, and power facilities. The goal is satisfactory strength capacity to safely and economically meet the demands of structural performance. Structures must resist the highly uncertain effects of combined gravity, earthquakes, wind, and snow loads supported by natural and human-made materials. The public's expectation is that structures should last a long time and have low lifetime risk of structural failure. Historically, specifications have contained safety factors which evolved from past experiences and provided adequate safety or low risk. Due to pressures of economy and the need to optimize structural performance, structural specifications have recently been developed and accepted by industry based on structural reliability and risk-assessment principles. This paper reviews developments of probabilistic applications in structural specifications including specification format, database, implementation examples, target risk levels, present research activities, and future goals for establishing optimal risk-design procedures.

Notes: Importance measures have been useful in the process of extracting insights from risk analyses. Importance measures have also been suggested for use in component classification. However, there are difficulties of interpretation associated with component classification based on importance measures. This paper briefly reviews an alternative method, “Top Event Prevention Analysis,” and, based on a simple example, compares its key characteristics to those of conventional applications of importance measures. The methods are compared with respect to the task of formulating a safety case for a complex and potentially hazardous facility, in which component classification plays an important role. A key subtask is identification of a collection of design elements that is necessary and sufficient to achieve the desired level of protection of the public, the workers, and the environment. At the design stage, identifying this set helps to determine what elements to include in the final design. Separately, a similar selection process could be used in order to justify limiting the scope of regulatory oversight to a subset of design elements, on which a safety case is to be based. This step could be taken during initial review of a design, or later as part of an effort to justify relief from regulatory requirements that are burdensome but provide little actual risk reduction.〈section xml:id="abs1-1"〉〈title type="main"〉SUMMARYA safety case should arguably be based on a collection of design elements that combine to provide satisfactory plant response to important safety challenges, and provide this response with the desired reliability (achieved through redundancy and diversity in design, and programmatic support activities as necessary in implementation). The key property of such a collection resides in the set as a whole, and not in any single element: the implications of including or not including any given design element in the collection depend strongly on what other design elements are included. Given a logic model that comprehensively addresses plant response, reflecting all components under consideration, and a defense-in-depth safety standard of the kind discussed above, TEPA is capable of choosing prevention sets: subsets of components that have the desired defense-in-depth property, and are suitable candidates for serving as the nucleus of a safety case.Single-event importance measures cannot capture considerations like this, except perhaps as part of an arduous iterative reformulation of a logic model to successively remove and restore combinations of events in a trial-and-error approach to a self-consistent design solution. No method of applying conventional importance measures has been shown to produce solutions that are feasible in the sense of completing pathsets, nor is one expected. Interpreting the upper portion of a ranked list of components as a safety case would therefore be a misapplication of the importance measure concept.However, given a prevention set, one could apply importance measures to fine-tune the allocation of resources within this set. That is, one could compute importances within a model that took credit only for elements of the prevention set, and reason from there. Even in this case, some iteration might be required in order to achieve a self-consistent allocation (one for which the reliability credit taken for each component is commensurate with the resources allocated to it). In order to draw valid conclusions in an application of this type, one must recall that all importance measures are predicated on credit for all modeled components; it is invalid to infer that components can be dropped from a safety case on grounds of low calculated importance. In short, application of importance measures is valid when (a) the selection problem has been solved by other means, (b) the importances are calculated with credit only for selected components, and (c) the resources allocated to each component are commensurate with the level of credit taken for the component (e.g., credit for a component's availability is backed up by an appropriate test schedule.).A byproduct of this work is the observation that whether or not TEPA itself is applied to choose prevention sets, a useful litmus test to be applied to a safety case is simply whether it is based on a union of complete success paths. As discussed above, thinking of the safety case in this way has other benefits, in helping to identify unmodeled components and in helping to specify the demands that must be met by each component, so that programmatic activities necessary to ensure its function can be identified and carried out. This formulation of the safety case helps in thinking about the relationship between component performance and resources allocated to that component. Understanding this relationship is essential to optimizing the use of safety resources.The number of combinations (possible prevention sets) that must be examined grows very rapidly as the number of design elements and minimal cutsets increases. Therefore, many realistic problems will be very demanding computationally. To some extent, this could be considered a drawback of TEPA, but it should be understood that the underlying problem is combinatorially very difficult, and actual solutions to it should not be expected to come easily in all cases. Fortunately, as illustrated by the practical applications summarized above, many real large-scale problems have specific features that permit their solution by adaptations of the general approach.

Notes: This paper raises two questions, i.e., Are some people more prone to perceive hazards than others embedded in the same dangerous working environment?, and—if so—Is it possible to find distinguishing characteristics allowing us to profile this worker segment? A survey study was conducted among catering personnel working on a drilling platform at the continental shelf in the North sea. It was observed that some people more than others perceived hazards in their working environment. By contrasting the extreme groups, i.e., the high and low hazards perceivers it was found that sociodemographics, e.g., gender, marital status, age and working experience possessed no descriptive power. However, the findings revealed that the worker segment prone to perceive high hazards also reported higher degree of burnout, anxiety and depression than did the low hazards perceivers. They (the high hazards perceivers) were also less satisfied with their stay on the platform, and they reported more health problems as well. The findings indicate that hazards perceptions of hazards go beyond mere “cold cognition,” also tapping into negatively feelings and emotional states. Theoretical and practical implications are highlighted.

Notes: This paper presents estimates of daily average per capita fish consumption by age and gender for the 48 conterminous states. The estimated consumption rates are reported for three fish habitats: freshwater/estuarine fish, marine fish, and all fish. The estimates were generated from the combined 1989, 1990, and 1991 Continuing Survey of Food Intake by Individuals (CSFII), a national food consumption survey conducted by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Point and interval estimates of per capita fish consumption were generated from the empirical distribution of daily average per capita consumption. The point estimates include the mean, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. Ninety percent confidence intervals are provided for the estimated mean and 90% bootstrap intervals are provided for percentile estimates. Information in a recipe file provided by USDA was used to calculate the amount of fish in recipes which contain fish. The estimated consumption rates are based on the weight of fish in its prepared or “as consumed” condition. The estimated mean consumption rate for all fish for the U.S. population of the 48 conterminous states was 15.65 grams/person/day (C.I.:14.67–16.63) of which 4.71 grams/person/day (C.I.:4.17–5.25) was freshwater/estuarine fish and 10.94 grams/person/day (C.I.: 10.14–11.73) was marine fish.

Notes: The combination of radon and smoking produces a synergistic risk of lung cancer. Lay understanding of this risk was examined from the perspectives of mental models theory, the psychometric approach to risk perception, and optimistic bias. As assessed by interview, participants (N= 50) had more extensive mental models for the risks of smoking than for the risks of radon or the combination of radon and smoking; 32% knew little or nothing about radon. Despite reading an informational brochure, their risk-perception ratings of the three hazards showed no perception of the synergy between smoking and radon risk, although the combined hazard was rated as less familiar but more controllable than the average of the single hazards (p 〈 .01). No evidence of optimistic bias for the health consequences of radon, or the combination of radon and smoking was observed. Participants appeared to be combining the single-hazard risks subadditively to arrive at their combined-hazard risk perceptions. Further research on the integration of perceived risks would be beneficial for designing optimal communications about synergistic risk.

Notes: This paper investigates the role that performance-based regulations can play in linking a firm's environmental, health, and safety concerns with their corporate strategy. The specific focus is on the performance standards required by the Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) which require firms that store or use certain chemicals to develop a Risk Management Plan (RMP) for reducing the likelihood and impact of accidents at their plants. Data from a series of case studies and interviews of executives in chemical firms reveal that proactive companies integrated many of the requirements of the CAAA into their management systems prior to the regulatory requirements. Most of these firms tend to be large ones. Small firms often lack the resources to implement these regulations and hence have tended to have a more difficult time with compliance.

Notes: Coexisting Ca-poor and Ca-rich pyroxenes in granulites at Cape Riche, in the Precambrian Albany-Fraser Province, Western Australia, are dominantly chemically homogeneous within individual samples, suggesting a major episode of equilibration. However, occasional grains in a few samples contain exsolved domains interpreted as relics of an earlier, higher-T assemblage. Pyroxene pairs in ten, presumably isothermal, samples from a restricted area are used to (i) assess the suitability of several versions of the two-pyroxene thermometer for application to metamorphic rocks, and (ii) determine the thermal history of the Cape Riche pyroxenes.The various versions of the two-pyroxene thermometer applied to the well-equilibrated homogeneous pyroxene grains show poor to good precision and yield mean temperatures varying widely from 683° to 893°C, in the following order of increasing T: Lindsley (1983; opx version), 683°± 11°C; Kretz (1982; KD version), 705°± 19°C; Ross & Huebner (1975), 709°± 30°C; Kretz (1982; solvus version), 735°± 24°C; Fonarev & Graphchikov (1982; opx version), 〈750°C; Lindsley (1983; cpx version), 784°± 40°C; Fonarev & Graphchikov (1982; cpx version), ~820°± 30°C; Wood & Banno (1973), 849°± 16°C; Powell (1978), 854°± 23°C; Wells (1977), 893°± 10°C. Independent T estimates, based on mafic assemblages and garnet-biotite thermometry, suggest that the major episode of metamorphism occurred at 700-800°C (P ~ 5 kbar). Therefore the Wells, Powell, Wood & Banno and Fonarev & Graphchikov (cpx) temperatures are almost certainly too high. In the absence of a more precise independent T estimate it is difficult to assess the relative merits of the results obtained from the remaining versions of the two-pyroxene thermometer, none of which can be unequivocally demonstrated to be seriously in error, though the Lindsley (opx) T is probably too low. Other significant shortcomings evident in the results include the relatively poor precision obtained from the three methods based on purely graphical representation of the augite limb of the solvus (i.e., the Ross & Huebner, Fonarev & Graphchikov (cpx) and Lindsley (cpx) versions), and the apparent dependence of derived T on Mg/Fe2+ ratio for the Powell, Wood & Banno and Lindsley (cpx) methods.For the bulk compositions of exsolved domains, the different versions of the two-pyroxene thermometer yield mean temperatures 23° to 82°C (overall mean, 65°C) higher than for homogeneous grains in the same samples. These exsolved domains are interpreted as relics of a higher-T (peak?) metamorphic assemblage, rather than an igneous precursor.

Notes: This work presents the results of a fluid inclusion study of an amphibolite-granulite facies transition in West Uusimaa, S.W. Finland. Early fluid-inclusions in the granulite facies area are characteristically carbonic (CO2), in contrast to predominantly aqueous early inclusions in the amphibolite facies area. These early inclusions can be related to peak metamorphic conditions (750-820°C and 3-5 kbar for peak granulite facies metamorphism). Relatively young CO2 inclusions with low densities (〈0.8g/cm3) indicate that the first part of the cooling history of the rocks was characterized by a near isothermal uplift.N2-CH4 inclusions, with compositions ranging between pure CH4 and pure N2 (Raman spectral analysis), were found in the whole area. They are probably syn- or even pre-early inclusions. Only nearly critical homogenizing inclusions have been found (low density). Pressure estimates, based on densities of early fluid inclusions, show that the rapid transition of amphibolite towards granulite facies metamorphism is virtually isobaric. Granulite facies metamorphism in West Uusimaa is a thermal event, probably induced by the influx of hot, CO2-bearing fluids.

Notes: Multisystems of n+k (k 〉 3) phases are very complicated and knowledge of them has suffered as a result. The successful solution of the topological relationships in n+ 3 phase multisystems by Zen (1966, 1967) and Zen & Roseboom (1972) has aroused much interest regarding what will happen in a multisystem of more than n+ 3 phases. Since 1979, some important research results on this topic have been published. These results have expounded the substantial rules governing the appearance of phase relations in phase diagrams of n - k (k 〉 3) phase multisystems. The most significant conclusions include: (1) It is impossible to incorporate all the possible phase relations in an n+k (k 〉 3) phase multisystem in a single closed net. Therefore, it is no longer enough to use only a single closed net to depict the topological relations involved in these types of multisystems. Instead, one or more groups of closed nets, namely the complete system(s) of closed nets are necessary for this purpose. (2) A principle called the Combination Principle has been proposed and proved. It states: Any closed net of one n+k (k 〉 3) phase multisystem must be a combination of two or more distinct n+ 3 order submultisystem closed nets belonging to the given n+k phase multisystem, if it is not one of the n+ 3 order submultisystem closed nets itself. The combination principle provides both a theoretical basis and a practical method for the construction of closed nets and, hence, for the derivation of the real phase diagrams for any n+k (k 〉 3) phase multisystem. (3) A theorem on divariant-assemblage-characteristic-stability-polygons is also important to our understanding of the n+k (k± 3) phase multisystem closed nets. This theorem can be stated as follows: A divariant assemblage of an n+k (k± 3) phase multisystem will be stable in an l-polygon lacking diagonals in an appropriate set of closed-net-diagrams, and this l-polygon may be at least a triangle, and at most a k-polygon. In addition, the closed-net-diagrams of unary and binary n+ 4 phase multisystems derived respectively by Guo (1980b, 1980c, 1981a) and by Roseboom & Zen (1982) have also been summarized. The combination principle is applied to a practical petrological problem in this paper, dealing with 7 phases in the system FeO-Fe2O3-SiO2.

Notes: Abstract The stability of quartz-chloritoid-staurolite-almandine-cordierite and aluminium silicates is used to constrain both metamorphic conditions and pressure-temperature trajectories for two localities within the 2700 Ma Archaean Yilgarn Block in Western Australia. Available experimental data are used to calculate thermodynamic data for a self-consistent set of equilibria between these minerals. A lower amphibolite facies locality from the margin of a lower strain area contains assemblages including quartz-chloritoid-staurolite-garnet-biotite with altered cordierite replacing chloritoid, quartz-staurolite-andalusite, and quartz-cordierite-andalusite-biotite. This locality was heated to 530–560°C in the andalusite field, at 4.2 kbar. A sample from a mid- to upper-amphibolite facies, highly strained locality contains relict staurolite enclosed by andalusite, in turn replaced by cordierite and muscovite with biotite and sillimanite in the matrix. The assemblage was heated isobarically from conditions near the maximum experienced by the lower grade locality of 560°C at 4.2 kbar to temperatures in excess of the andalusite-sillimanite transition but within the quartz plus muscovite stability field (600–650°C). The higher grade locality is close to a granitoid dome and sections based on gravity profiles reveal that this locality is underlain by granitoid at shallow depths. The higher grade metamorphism apparently reflects superposition of the thermal aureole on regional metamorphic conditions similar to those in the lower grade areas.

Notes: Abstract A major system of steep Caledonian shear zones, of regional extent, has been identified in NE Scotland. The shear zones affect a wide range of lithologies, including Argyll and Southern Highland Group Dalradian, ‘Younger Basic’intrusives and their hornfelses, and also the earlier of the more acid intrusions. The observed fabrics and parageneses are consistent with low-pressure amphibolite facies metamorphism. These shear zones represent a phase of movement which occurred in the 490-465 Ma interval when ambient temperatures were still high, and it is concluded that this is the principal control on the metamorphic grade achieved within the shear zones, although local anomalies may exist.

Notes: Abstract An experimental study of the system CaCO3–MgCO3–FeCO3 was undertaken in order to calibrate the iron correction to the calcite–dolomite geothermometer, which is based on the solubility of magnesium in calcite in the assemblage calcite + dolomite. The experiments, at 450°C and lower temperatures, resulted in products with a very small grain size and incomplete equilibration. However, application of a carefully-devised automatic data processing algorithm to analyses of the phases in experimental charges, combined with a thermodynamic analysis, results in geothermometer diagrams which should be preferred to previous theoretical predictions.

Notes: Abstract Biotite, garnet, staurolite and kyanite isograds in pelitic metasedimentary rocks are developed as a result of thermal metamorphism around syntectonic granitoids in Eastern Rouergue (France). Temperature estimates range between 400°C and 650°C at about 6.5 kbar. Geothermobarometry shows a steep isobaric T gradient which is consistent with the interpretation that the metamorphic highs are thermal aureoles. High grade rocks show evidence of two staurolite forming reactions in the presence of plagioclase and the absence of chlorite that have not been described previously in the literature. The reaction that occurs in the middle staurolite zone, alm-rich ga + Ca-rich pla + Na-rich mu gro-rich ga + Na-rich pla + st + Na-poor mu, is considered to be prograde, whereas the reaction that occurs in the kyanite zone, alm-rich ga + Ca-rich pla + w st + Ca-rich ga + Na-rich pla + qz, is retrograde. The topology of these reactions is illustrated in terms of end member compositions for the systems KNaFASH and KCaFASH, respectively.

Notes: It is common in catastrophic food-contamination events that consumers fail to adjust instantaneously to a normal consumption level. One explanation is that consumers only gradually accept new positive information as being trustworthy. The gradual establishment of the trustworthiness of the released information depends on both positive and negative media coverage over time. We examine the individual “trust” effects by extending the prospective reference theory (Viscusi, 1989) to include a dynamic adjustment process of risk perception. Conditions that allow aggregation of changes in risk perceptions across individuals are described. The proposed model describes a general updating process of risk perceptions to media coverage and can be applied to explain the temporal impact of media coverage on consumption of a broad range of goods (food or nonfood). A case study of milk contamination is conducted to demonstrate consumer demand adjustment process to a temporarily unfavorable shock. The results suggest that effects of positive and negative information to adjustment of consumption and risk perception are asymmetric over time.

Notes: The scaling of administered doses to achieve equal degrees of toxic effect in different species has been relatively poorly examined for noncancer toxicity, either empirically or theoretically. We investigate empirical patterns in the correspondence of single oral dose LD, values across several mammalian species for a large number of chemicals based on data reported in the RTECSQ database maintained by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. We find a good correspondence of LD, values across species when the dose levels are expressed in terms of mgadministered per kg of body mass. Our findings contrast with earlier analyses that support scaling doses by the 3/4-power of body mass to achieve equal subacute toxicity of antineoplastic agents. We suggest that, especially for severe toxicity, single- and repeated-dosing regimes may have different cross-species scaling properties, as they may depend on standing levels of defenses and rate of regeneration of defenses, respectively.

Notes: Although occupational exposure limits are sought to establish health-based standards, they do not always give a sufficient basis for planning an indoor air climate that is good and comfortable for the occupants in industrial work rooms. This paper considers methodologies by which the desired level, i.e., target level, of air quality in industrial settings can be defined, taking into account feasibility issues. Risk assessment based on health criteria is compared with risk-assessment based on “Best Available Technology” (BAT). Because health-based risk estimates at low concentration regions are rather inaccurate, the technology-based approach is emphasized. The technological approach is based on information on the prevailing concentrations in industrial work environments and the benchmark air quality attained with the best achievable technology. The prevailing contaminant concentrations are obtained from a contaminant exposure databank, and the benchmark air quality by field measurements in industrial work rooms equipped with advanced ventilation and production technology. As an example, the target level assessment has been applied to formaldehyde, total inorganic dust and hexavalent chromium, which are common contaminants in work room air.

Notes: Cultural Theory, as developed by Mary Douglas, argues that differing risk perceptions can be explained by reference to four distinct cultural biases: hierarchy, egalitarianism, individualism, and fatalism. This paper presents empirical results from a quantitative survey based on a questionnaire devised by Karl Dake to measure these cultural biases. A large representative sample (N = 1022) was used to test this instrument in the French social context. Correlations between cultural biases and perceptions of 20 social and environmental risks were examined. These correlations were very weak, but were statistically significant: cultural biases explained 6%, at most, of the variance in risk perceptions. Standard sociodemographic variables were also weakly related to risk perceptions (especially gender, social class, and education), and cultural biases and sociodemographic variables were themselves inter correlated (especially with age, social class, and political outlook). The authors compare these results with surveys conducted in other countries using the same instrument and conclude that new methods, more qualitative and contextual, still need to be developed to investigate the cultural dimensions of risk perceptions. The paper also discusses relationships between perceptions of personal and residual risk, and between perceived risk and demand for additional safety measures. These three dimensions were generally closely related, but interesting differences were observed for some risk issues.

Notes: The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) have focused attention on risk assessment of potential insect, weed, and animal pests and diseases of livestock. These risks have traditionally been addressed through quarantine protocols ranging from limits on the geographical areas from which a product may originate, postharvest disinfestation procedures like fumigation, and inspections at points of export and import, to outright bans. To ensure that plant and animal protection measures are not used as nontariff trade barriers, GATT and NAFTA require pest risk analysis (PRA) to support quarantine decisions. The increased emphasis on PRA has spurred multiple efforts at the national and international level to design frameworks for the conduct of these analyses. As approaches to pest risk analysis proliferate, and the importance of the analyses grows, concerns have arisen about the scientific and technical conduct of pest risk analysis. In January of 1997, the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis (HCRA) held an invitation-only workshop in Washington, D.C. to bring experts in risk analysis and pest characterization together to develop general principles for pest risk analysis. Workshop participants examined current frameworks for PRA, discussed strengths and weaknesses of the approaches, and formulated principles, based on years of experience with risk analysis in other setting and knowledge of the issues specific to analysis of pests. The principles developed highlight the both the similarities of pest risk analysis to other forms of risk analysis, and its unique attributes.

Notes: A substantial body of risk research indicates that women and men differ in their perceptions of risk. This paper discusses how they differ and why. A review of a number of existing empirical studies of risk perception points at several problems, regarding what gender differences are found in such studies, and how these differences are accounted for. Firstly, quantitative approaches, which have so far dominated risk research, and qualitative approaches give different, sometimes even contradictory images of women's and men's perceptions of risk. Secondly, the gender differences that appear are often left unexplained, and even when explanations are suggested, these are seldom related to gender research and gender theory in any systematic way. This paper argues that a coherent, theoretically informed gender perspective on risk is needed to improve the understanding of women's and men's risk perceptions. An analysis of social theories of gender points out some relations and distinctions which should be considered in such a perspective. It is argued that gender structures, reflected in gendered ideology and gendered practice, give rise to systematic gender differences in the perception of risk. These gender differences may be of different kinds, and their investigation requires the use of qualitative as well as quantitative methods. In conclusion, the arguments about gender and risk perception are brought together in a theoretical model which might serve as a starting point for further research.

Notes: The AC electric and magnetic fields associated with high voltage power lines have become a concern as a possible health risk. In most cases the strength of these fields decreases as the inverse square of the distance from the line. In earlier work, we found that laypeople do not understand how rapidly field strength decreases with distance. Most believe that any high voltage power line they can see is exposing them to strong fields. This paper confirms the earlier finding and explores a number of strategies which might be used in risk communications to correct this misperception. We found it relatively easy to provide subjects with a better understanding of the range-dependency of magnetic field strength. Moreover, the quality of this acquisition was apparently independent of the manner in which they were instructed. Such successful instruction is markedly different from the well-established difficulty of teaching people about many qualitative domains, such as physics or ideas in probability. Clearly, while some erroneous beliefs are highly resistant to change, others can be altered quite readily. We suspect that an important distinction between knowledge about the range-dependency of power-frequency magnetic fields and less tractable topics involves the presence or absence of prior folk-theories or “mental models” of the domain.

Notes: In the spring of 1993, about 39% of Milwaukee-area residents suffered through a nationally publicized illness brought about by cryptosporidium, a parasite that had infested the metropolitan drinking water supply. Our study, based on a telephone survey of 610 local adult residents, indicates that worry about becoming ill in the future with cryptosporidiosis relates more strongly and consistently to public reliance on, and use of, media for cryptosporidium information than do a range of risk perception and experience variables. We propose that more studies should take an audience-centered approach to understanding risk communication.

Notes: This paper seeks to compare two frameworks which have been proposed to explain risk perceptions, namely, cultural theory and the psychometric paradigm. A structured questionnaire which incorporated elements from both approaches was administered to 129 residents of Norwich, England. The qualitative risk characteristics generated by the psychometric paradigm explained a far greater proportion of the variance in risk perceptions than cultural biases, though it should be borne in mind that the qualitative characteristics refer directly to risks whereas cultural biases are much more distant variables. Correlations between cultural biases and risk perceptions were very low, but the key point was that each cultural bias was associated with concern about distinct types of risks and that the pattern of responses was compatible with that predicted by cultural theory. The cultural approach also provided indicators for underlying beliefs regarding trust and the environment; beliefs which were consistent within each world view but divergent between them. An important drawback, however, was that the psychometric questionnaire could only allocate 32% of the respondents unequivocally to one of the four cultural types. The rest of the sample expressed several cultural biases simultaneously, or none at all. Cultural biases are therefore probably best interpreted as four extreme world views, and a mixture of qualitative and quantitative research methodologies would generate better insights into who might defend these views in what circumstances, whether there are only four mutually exclusive world views or not, and how these views are related to patterns of social solidarity, and judgments on institutional trust.

Notes: Public responses to nuclear technologies are often strongly negative. Events, such as accidents or evidence of unsafe conditions at nuclear facilities, receive extensive and dramatic coverage by the news media. These news stories affect public perceptions of nuclear risks and the geographic areas near nuclear facilities. One result of these perceptions, avoidance behavior, is a form of “technological stigma” that leads to losses in property values near nuclear facilities. The social amplification of risk is a conceptual framework that attempts to explain how stigma is created through media transmission of information about hazardous places and public perceptions and decisions. This paper examines stigma associated with the U.S. Department of Energy's Rocky Flats facility, a major production plant in the nation's nuclear weapons complex, located near Denver, Colorado. This study, based upon newspaper analyses and a survey of Denver area residents, finds that the social amplification theory provides a reasonable framework for understanding the events and public responses that took place in regard to Rocky Flats during a 6-year period, beginning with an FBI raid of the facility in 1989.

Notes: This paper presents benchmark (BMD) calculations and additional regression analyses of data from a study in which scores from 26 scholastic and psychological tests administered to 237 6- and 7-year-old New Zealand children were correlated with the mercury concentration in their mothers' hair during pregnancy. The original analyses of five test scores found an association between high prenatal mercury exposure and decreased test performance, using category variables for mercury exposure. Our regression analyses, which utilized the actual hair mercury level, did not find significant associations between mercury and children's test scores. However, this finding was highly influenced by a single child whose mother's mercury hair level (86 mgkg) was more than four times that of any other mother. When that child was omitted, results were more indicative of a mercury effect and scores on six tests were significantly associated with the mothers' hair mercury level. BMDs calculated from five tests ranged from 32 to 73 mgkg hair mercury, and corresponding BMDLs (95% lower limits on BMDs) ranged from 17 to 24 mgkg. When the child with the highest mercury level was omitted, BMDs ranged from 13 to 21 mgkg, and corresponding BMDLs ranged from 7.4 to 10 mgkg.

Notes: Truck transport of radioactive material (RAM), e.g., spent nuclear fuel (SNF), normally maximizes use of Interstate highways, which are safer and more efficient for truck transport in general. In the estimation of transportation risks, population bordering a route is a direct factor in determining consequences and an indirect factor in determining exposure times, accident probabilities and severities, and other parameters. Proposals to transport RAM may draw intense resistance from “stakeholders” based on concern for population concentrations along urban segments but the length of a route segment is also a determinative factor in estimating the transport risks. To quantify the relative importance of these two factors, a potential route for transport of SNF (strict use of Interstate highways) was selected and compared with a modified version that bypassed urban areas. The results suggest that emphasis on Interstate highways minimizes total route and urban segment risks.

Notes: In 1984, based on epidemiological data on cohorts of coke oven workers, USEPA estimated a unit risk for lung cancer associated with continuous exposure from birth to 1 pg/m3 of coke oven emissions, of 6.2 × This risk assessment was based on information on the cohorts available through 1966. Follow-up of these cohorts has now been extended to 1982 and, moreover, individual job histories, which were not available in 1984, have been constructed. In this study, lung cancer mortality in these cohorts of coke oven workers with extended follow-up was analyzed using standard techniques of survival analysis and a new approach based on the two stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis. The latter approach allows the explicit consideration of detailed patterns of exposure of each individual in the cohort. The analyses used the extended follow-up data through 1982 and the detailed job histories now available. Based on these analyses, the best estimate of unit risk is 1.5 × with 95% confidence interval = 1.2 × 10-”1.8 X

Notes: This project describes a methodology for assessing relative risk along a transportation corridor utilizing waterborne transportation on the busiest port area in the world, the lower Mississippi River (from the mouth of Southwest Pass up through Baton Rouge, Louisiana). The paper calculates a relative risk scale, using data obtained from maritime experts, previous research, and existing databases. The research aggregates the vessel traffic data and geographic risk location data to produce relative risk scores for each mile along the River from the mouth of Southwest Pass to the termination of shipping at the U.S. 190 bridge across the River at Baton Rouge. This is done in a very simple and practical way for this initial model: (1) each vessel traveling the Mississippi is classified according to its risk potential for those miles that it passes in route to where it docks, and (2) points along the river are assigned a relative risk score based upon risk variables identified by expérts identified through a standard sampling procedure. The relative risk scores for river miles are combinations of these two factors.

Notes: Real-world exposure measurements are a necessary ingredient for subsequent detailed study of the risks from an environmental pollutant. For volatile organic compounds, researchers are applying exhaled breath analysis and the time dependence of concentrations as a noninvasive indicator of exposure, dose, and blood levels. To optimize the acquisition of such data, samples must be collected in a time frame suited to the needs of the mathematical model, within physical limitations of the equipment and subjects, and within logistical constraints. Additionally, one must consider the impact of measurement error on the eventual extraction of biologically and physiologically relevant parameters. Given a particular mathematical model for the elimination kinetics (in this case a very simple pharmacokinetic model based upon a multitenn exponential decay function that has been shown to fit real-world data extremely well), we investigated the effects on synthetic data caused by sample timing, random measurement error, and number of terms included in the model. This information generated a series of conditions for collecting samples and performing analyses dependent upon the eventual informational needs, and it provided an estimate of error associated with various choices and compromises. Though the work was geared specifically toward breath sampling, it is equally applicable to direct blood measurements in optimizing sampling strategy and improving the exposure assessment process.

Notes: Health risks from fossil, renewable and nuclear reference energy systems are estimated following a detailed impact pathway approach. Using a set of appropriate air quality models and exposure-effect functions derived from the recent epidemiological literature, a methodological framework for risk assessment has been established and consistently applied across the different energy systems, including the analysis of consequences from a major nuclear accident. A wide range of health impacts resulting from increased air pollution and ionizing radiation is quantified, and the transferability of results derived from specific power plants to a more general context is discussed.

Notes: This paper investigates electrical overheating events aboard a habitable spacecraft. The wire insulation involved in these failures plays a major role in the entire event scenario from threat development to detection and damage assessment. Ideally, if models of wire overheating events in microgravity existed, the various wire insulations under consideration could be quantitatively compared. However, these models do not exist. In this paper, a methodology is developed that can be used to select a wire insulation that is best suited for use in a habitable spacecraft. The results of this study show that, based upon the Analytic Hierarchy Process and simplifying assumptions, the criteria selected, and data used in the analysis, Tefzel is better than Teflon for use in a habitable spacecraft.

Notes: The occurrence of lawsonite is described from pelitic schists of the lower-grade part of the pumpellyite-bearing subzone of the chlorite zone in the Asemi River area of central Shikoku. The lawsonite-bearing parageneses are consistent with the generally accepted view that the Sanbagawa facies series represents higher pressures than the lawsonite-bearing facies series in New Zealand.

Notes: Abstract Late Archaean orthogneisses and aluminous and iron-rich metasedimentary rocks intruded by anorthosite and a ferrodiorite-granite suite were completely recrystallized during Proterozoic granulite facies metamorphism. Geobarometry and geothermometry indicate P-T conditions of around 7.5kbar. 700°C, with a CO2-rich fluid phase and logfO2 at or below -16. A two-stage high-grade history of near isochemical corona growth is preserved in metasediments with the reaction cycle opx + plag + H2O → hbl+gar+SiO2→ opx+plag+H2O. End product compositions resemble those of the initial phases, and the only mobile components were SiO2 and/or H2O. The coronas reflect shortlived fluctuations in chemical activity at essentially constant P and T, contrary to simple progressive change in equilibrium parameters recorded by most corona-bearing textures.

Notes: In a polymetamorphic, felsic, biotite-bearing gneiss, biotite has reacted to form magnetite and microcline. The resulting structure is a magnetite core surrounded by a mantle of feldspar and quartz normally not exceeding 20mm in diameter. Measurements of oxygen isotope ratios disclose disequilibrium between mantle microcline and mantle quartz and also between mantle and matrix minerals of the same species. A clustering of temperature estimates from the oxygen isotope distribution between magnetite and quartz and between magnetite and microcline in the interval 550 to 600°C suggests an approach to oxygen isotope equilibrium. No signs of a re-equilibriation of the reacting biotite can be found.

Notes: Abstract Clinopyroxenes and garnets from 11 blueschist-facies Fe-rich eclogite samples from the Voltri Group show a wide range of chemical compositions. Detailed analyses of single pyroxene and garnet grains show wide and scattered chemical inhomogeneity, the KD(KD= (Fe2+/Mg)Gt/(Fe2+/Mg)Cpx) ranges from 20 to 87 based on rim analyses only. The data obtained indicate that the mineral pairs never attained equilibrium under uniform P-T conditions and that the compositions of the metamorphic minerals were influenced mainly by the composition of the pre-metamorphic minerals and by topotactical reactions.

Notes: Abstract At Sulitjelma, Norway, there is a major inversion of metamorphic isograds beneath an inverted but undisrupted ophiolite. The flysch-like Furulund schist in which the inverted isograds occur is also inverted and the early folds in it are downward facing. The isograds cut across the axial surfaces of early folds and across the schistosity. These relationships are explained as the consequence of metamorphism during the progressive development of a large overfold. The inverted limb of the overfold is regarded as a major, thick, gently-dipping shear zone, separating the lower-grade, lower part of the Caledonian allochthon below from the higher-grade upper part of the allochthon above. The association between stratigraphical inversion, downward-facing of syn-schistosity folds and metamorphic inversion is explained by the progressive development of the shear zone. It is suggested that the presence of such shear zones is a common feature of orogenic belts formed by continental collision.

Notes: Abstract The Hercynian granitic basement which forms the Tenda Massif in NE Corsica represents part of the leading edge of the European Plate during middle-to-late Cretaceous (Eoalpine) high P metamorphism. The metamorphism of this basement, induced by the overthrusting of a blueschist facies (schistes lustrés) nappe, was confined to a major ductile shear zone (c. 1000m thick) within which deformation increases upwards towards the overlying nappe. Metamorphism within the basement mostly records lower blueschist facies conditions (crossite + epidote) except near the base of the shear zone where the greenschist facies assemblage albite + actinolitic amphibole has developed instead of crossite. Study of the primary mafic phase breakdown reactions within hornblende granodiorite reveals the following metamorphic zonation. Zone 1: biotite to chlorite. Towards zone 2: biotite to phengite. Zone 2: Hornblende to actinolitic Ca-amphibole + albite + sphene, and biotite to actinolitic Ca-amphibole + albite + phengite + Ti-ore + epidote. Zone 3: Hornblende to crossite + low Ti-biotite + phengite + sphene, and biotite to crossite + low Ti-biotite + phengite + Ti-ore + sphene ± epidote. P-T conditions at the base of the shear zone are estimated to have been 390-490°C at 600-900 M Pa (6-9kbar) and the Corsican basement is therefore deduced to have been buried to 20-30 km during metamorphism. This relatively shallow metamorphism contrasts with some other areas in the Western Alps where the Eoalpine event apparently buried the European continental crust to depths of 80 km or more. As there is no evidence for a long history of blueschist facies metamorphism prior to the involvement of the European continent, it is deduced that the Eoalpine blueschists were produced during the collision of the Insubric plate with Europe, rather than during Tethyan intraoceanic subduction. Coherent blueschist terrains such as the schistes lustres probably record buovant feature collision and obduction tectonics rather than any preceding oceanic subduction.

Notes: Abstract Three major blastomylonitic synmetamorphic (epidote amphibolite to mid amphibolite facies) shear zones are seen on the NW coast of the Mullet Peninsula in NW Mayo. These shear zones occur at the contacts of major structural units and in an imbricated slice where rocks of the Erris Complex are deformed and chemically modified. Chemical changes associated with individual shear zones have been deduced by comparing the compositions of various gneisses both within and adjacent to the shear zones. Compositional changes are different in the constituent rock-types within each unit and many elements normally considered immobile have been selectively mobilized within the shear zones. Little evidence of wholesale metasomatic introduction of components into these shear zones was found to accompany the selective mobilization.

Notes: Human exposure assessments require a linkage between toxicant concentrations in occupied spaces and the receptor's mobility pattern. Databases reporting distinct populations' mobility in various parts of the home, time outside the home, and time in another building are scarce. Temporal longitudinal trends in these mobility patterns for specific age and gender groups are nonexistent. This paper describes subgroup trends in the spatial and temporal mobility patterns within the home, outside the home, and in another building for 619 Iowa females that occupied the same home for at least 20 years. The study found that the mean time spent at home for the participants ranged from a low of 69.4% for the 50-59 year age group to a high of 81.6% for the over 80-year-old age group. Participants who lived in either one- or two- story homes with basements spent the majority of their residential occupancy on the first story. Trends across age varied for other subgroups by number of children, education, and urbadrural status. Since all of these trends were nonlinear, they indicate that error exists when assuming a constant, such as a 75% home occupancy factor, which has been advocated by some researchers and agencies. In addition, while aggregate data, such as presented in this report, are more helpll in deriving risk estimates for population subgroups, they cannot supplant good individual-level data for determining risks.

Notes: The National Research Council has recommended the use of an analytic/deliberative decision making process in environmental restoration decisions that involve multiple stakeholders. This work investigates the use of the results of risk assessment and multiattribute utility analysis (the “analysis”) in guiding the deliberation. These results include the ranking of proposed remedial action alternatives according to each stakeholder's preferences, as well as the identification of the major reasons for these rankings. The stakeholder preferences are over a number of performance measures that include the traditional risk assessment metrics, e.g., individual worker risk, as well as programmatic, cultural, and cost-related impacts. Based on these results, a number of proposals are prepared for consideration by the stakeholders during the deliberation. These proposals are the starting point for the formulation of actual recommendations by the group. In our case study, these recommendations included new remedial action alternatives that were created by the stakeholders after an extensive discussion of the detailed analytical results.

Notes: Comprehensive uncertainty analyses of complex models of environmental and biological systems are essential but often not feasible due to the computational resources they require. “Traditional” methods, such as standard Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube Sampling, for propagating uncertainty and developing probability densities of model outputs, may in fact require performing a prohibitive number of model simulations. An alternative is offered, for a wide range of problems, by the computationally efficient “Stochastic Response Surface Methods (SRSMs)” for uncertainty propagation. These methods extend the classical response surface methodology to systems with stochastic inputs and outputs. This is accomplished by approximating both inputs and outputs of the uncertain system through stochastic series of “well behaved” standard random variables; the series expansions of the outputs contain unknown coefficients which are calculated by a method that uses the results of a limited number of model simulations. Two case studies are presented here involving (a) a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for perchloroethylene (PERC) for humans, and (b) an atmospheric photochemical model, the Reactive Plume Model (RPM-IV). The results obtained agree closely with those of traditional Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube Sampling methods, while significantly reducing the required number of model simulations.

Notes: The paper presents research and development at the Thematic Information Service of the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) on the topic of integrated geographic information systems. The term integrated is used to describe the incorporation of vector digitised map data and raster scanned remotely sensed data within a single computational environment and with a single interface to the user. Point sampled and statistical data can also be handled by the system. The general structure and working of the Thematic Information Service (TIS) is described only to the extent that it is relevant to providing the background to the research or to highlighting why the specific approach described has been taken.

Notes: A procedure for digital image correlation is described which is based on least squares window matching. The immediate aim is high precision parallax assessment, point transfer, and point measurement. Experiments and theory have confirmed the high accuracy potential of the method. By implementation of charge coupled device (CCD) video cameras in an analytical plotter, an experimental hardware and software configuration has been established with which the operational on line application of digital image correlation for conventional photogrammetric measuring tasks can be tested. First results of calibration and performance of the system are presented. They allow optimistic conclusions as to the further development and practical application of digital image processing in photogrammetry.

Notes: Book review in this aticle:DESERTS AND ARID LANDS. Edited by F. El-Baz.IMAGES OF THE WORLD AN ATLAS OF SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MAPS. By C. Mueller-Wille with an interpretive supplement by R. M. Smith.ELEMENTS OF PHOTOGRAMMETRY. By P. R. Wolf.

Notes: The essential features of equipment for mobile processing are outlined with reference to the development of small photographic laboratory vehicles for use in the Jield. The resulting air film processor, the Wainco Products Limited 392. is described and details are given of trials carried out to establish its performance for a range of tasks in both reconnaissance and survey. The tests cover the sensitometric and drying behaviour of several air films in current use and include an analysis of the dimensional stability o f j l m in the processor. Applications using direrent containers and eflectiveness in improvised situations are also described and possible future variants of the processor are suggested.

Notes: The author reviews the historical background of the analytical orthoprojector and examines the design requirements for this instrument. The construction and performance of the Zeiss (Oberkochen)Z2 orthoprojector are described and an assessment is made of its practical advantages.

Notes: The new APY (Analytical Photogrammetry Yzerman) system is described and a detailed explanation is given of the principles involved. The APY depends on a unique modular design. A list of the straightforward operations required for its application in data compilation and revision is included.