ALBERT

Notes: The equilibrium thermodynamics of the reaction:And the equilibrium constant is composed of activities formulated using ideal mixing on sites. Consideration is given to the evaluation of uncertainties in pressures calculated using the geobarometer. Preliminary testing suggests that the geobarometer has considerable potential. Much wider testing is now required.

Notes: Abstract. Pink piemontite-spessartine-bearing and grey-green spessartine-bearing manganiferous quartzose schists derived from siliceous pelagites, and green quartzofeldspathic schists, are described from the greenschist facies of the Haast Schist terrane, near Arrow Junction, western Otago. Electron microprobe data are reported for sphene, spessartine-rich garnet, manganoan epidote, piemontite, tourmaline, phengitic muscovite, chlorite, albite, haematite, rutile, manganoan calcite and chalcopyrite.Metamorphism occurred at about 6.4kbar, 400°C. Xco2 was above the quartz-rutile-calcite-sphene buffer (Xco2± 0.02) throughout the recorded metamorphic history of the piemontite schists. It dropped from above to below this critical buffering value in a spessartine-rich schist and it was close to or below the buffering value in the quartzofeldspathic schists. Production of piemontite required high fO2, believed to be inherited from MnOx in the parent pelagite. Substantial loss of O2 (e.g. minimum of 0.19% by weight in one rock) during diagenesis and/or metamorphism is inferred. In the grey-green schists this inhibited piemontite formation. Slight loss of O2 and Ca2+ accompanied minor late-stage replacement of piemontite by second generation spessartine. Observed zoning and mineral replacements indicate rise of temperature, drop in pressure, or invasion by solutions of lower fO2 and XCO2 equilibrated with surrounding schists.The detailed chemistry of the minerals studied correlates with available Mn and with bulk-rock (Fe3+ x 100)/(Fe2++ Fe3+). The oxidation ratio ranges from 24 in average green quartzofeldspathic schist, through 78 in average grey-green manganiferous quartzose schist, to almost 100 in some piemontite-bearing schists. As Fe2+ gives way to Fe3+, Mg/Fe ratios tend to rise in chlorite, phengite, tourmaline, spessartine, and calcite, Mn increases and Ti decreases in haematite, Mn increases in spessartine and calcite, and Fe increases in rutile. Available divalent cations are depleted relative to Al; chlorite is more aluminous, and phengite more paragonitic than in typical Haast schists.

Notes: Field, petrographic and microprobe investigations of metaclastic rocks, calcareous schists, marbles, chloritic calcareous meta-volcanic units and schists/paragneisses which crop out along the eastern portion of the Central East-West Cross Island Highway in Taiwan demonstrate that metamorphic intensity gradually increases eastward. The lower greenschist facies Slate Formation on the W contains completely recrystallized, pure albitic plagioclase, but at least some of the white micas (± chlorites) probably represent relict detrital flakes. Neo-blastic biotite and epidote occur sporadically in the Pihou(?) Formation, and increase dramatically eastward; concomitantly the abundance of carbonaceous matter decreases to zero in the eastern Tailuko zone, and the amount of chlorite + white mica diminishes somewhat. Epidote becomes more aluminous at higher metamorphic grade. Eastward, phengites change progressively to more muscovitic compositions as the proportion of biotite increases.A close approach to chemical equilibrium for the pre-Cenozoic, complexly deformed metamorphic basement assemblages is suggested by regular, systematic, major and minor element partitioning between analysed coexisting phases. Fractionation is less pronounced on the E, reflecting higher temperatures. Estimated physical conditions of recrystallization with αH2O and αCO2 moderate, are: T 〉 325 ± 75°C, P 〉 3 kbar (W); T 〉 425 ± 75°C, P 〉 4kbar(E).The gradual eastward increase in metamorphic intensity from the Slate Formation through the Pihou(?) Formation and the three Tailuko zones, as well as the relict precursor textures in the pre-Cenozoic layered basement rocks indicate that the observed paragenetic sequence could represent a synchronous Neogene recrystallization event, probably accompanying the Plio-Pleistocene collision of the Asiatic continental margin and the Luzon (Coastal Range) andesitic arc.

Notes: The structure, microstructure and petrology of a small area close to the village of Bard in Val d'Aosta (Italy) has been studied in detail. The area lies across the contact between the Gneiss Minuti (GM) and the Eclogitic Micaschist (EMS) Complexes of the Lower element of the Sesia portion of the Sesia-Lanzo Zone (Western Alps). Both complexes have undergone high-pressure metamorphism, but the metamorphic assemblages indicate a sudden increase in pressure in going across the contact from the GM to the EMS. Therefore, we interpret the contact as a thrust dividing the lower element of the Sesia into two sub-elements. This interpretation is supported by structural evidence.The early Alpine (90-70 Ma) metamorphic history is best preserved in the EMS and is one of increasing pressure associated with thrusting. The maximum P/T recorded in the EMS is 〉1500 MPa (〉15kbar) and 550°C and in the GM is 〈 1500-1300 MPa (〈 15-13 kbar) and 500-550°C. We suggest that the rocks were probably in an active Benioff zone during this time.From then on the histories of the GM and EMS are the same. Deformation continued and the thrust and thrust slices were folded during decreasing pressure. We interpret the first postthrusting deformation in terms of uplift associated with continued shortening of the crust and underplating after the Benioff zone had become inactive and a new Benioff zone had developed further to the north-west.A still later deformation and the Lepontine metamorphism (38 Ma) are related to continued uplift. Much of this deformation is characterized by structures indicative of vertical shortening and lateral spreading as the mountains rose above the general level of the surface.

Notes: In the Boi Massif of Western Timor the Mutis Complex, which is equivalent to the Lolotoi Complex of East Timor, is composed of two lithostratigraphical components: various basement schists and gneisses; and the dismembered remnants of an ophiolite. Cordierite-bearing pelitic schists and gneisses carry an early mineral assemblage of biotite + garnet + plagioclase + Al-silicate, but contain no prograde muscovite; sillimanite occurs in a textural mode which suggests that it replaced and pseudomorphed kyanite at an early stage and some specimens of pelitic schist contain tiny kyanite relics in plagioclase. Textural relations between, and mineral chemistries of, ferro-magnesian phases in these pelitic chists and gneisses suggest that two discontinuous reactions and additional continuous compositional changes have been overstepped, possibly with concomitant anatexis, as a result of decrease in Pload during high temperature metamorphism. The simplified reactions are: garnet and/or biotite + sillimanite + quartz + cordierite + hercynite + ilmenite + excess components. P-T conditions during the development of the early mineral assemblage in the pelitic gneisses are estimated to have been P + 10 kbar and T 〉 750°C, based upon the plagioclase-garnet-Al-silicate-quartz geobarometer and the garnet-biotite geothermometer. P-T conditions during the subsequent development of cordierite-bearing mineral assemblages in the pelitic gneisses are estimated to have been P + 5 kbar and T + 700°C with XH2O 〈 0.5, based upon the Fe content of cordierite occurring in the assemblage quartz + plagioclase + sillimanite + biotite + garnet + cordierite coexisting with melt.Final equilibration between some of the phases suggests that conditions dropped to P 〉 2.3 kbar and T 〉 600°C. A similar exhumation P-T path is suggested for the pelitic schists with early metamorphic conditions of P 〉 6.2 kbar and T 〉 745°C and subsequent development of cordierite under conditions in the range P = 3-4 kbar and T = 600-700°C. The tectonic implications of these P-T estimates are discussed and it is concluded that the P-T path followed by these rocks was caused by decompression during rifting and synmetamorphic ophiolite emplacement resulting from processes during the initiation and development of a convergent plate junction located in Southeast Asia during late Jurassic to Cretaceous time.

Notes: Plagioclase compositions vary from An0.1–2.5 to An32 with increasing grade in chlorite zone to oligoclase zone quartzofeldspathic schists, Franz Josef-Fox Glacier area, Southern Alps, New Zealand. This change is interrupted by the peristerite composition gap in rocks transitional between greenschist and amphibolite facies grade. Oligoclase (An20-24) and albite (An0.1–0.5) are found in biotite zone schists below the garnet isograd. With increasing grade, the plagioclase compositions outline the peristerite gap, which is asymmetric and narrows to compositions of An12 and An6 near the top of the garnet zone. In any one sample, oligoclase is the stable mineral in mica-rich layers above the garnet isograd, whereas albite and oligoclase exist in apparent textural equilibrium in adjacent quartz-plagioclase layers. The initial appearance of oligoclase in both layers results from the breakdown of epidote and possibly sphene. Carbonate is restricted to the quartz-plagioclase rich layers and probably accounts for the more sodic composition of oligoclase in these layers. The formation of more Ca-rich albite and more Na-rich oligoclase near the upper limit of the garnet zone coincides with the disappearance of carbonate and closure of the peristerite gap. Garnet appears to have only a localized effect on Ca-enrichment of plagioclase in mica-rich layers within the garnet zone. The Na-content of white mica increases sympathetically with increasing Ca-content of oligoclase and metamorphic grade.Comparison of the peristerite gap in the Franz Josef-Fox Glacier schists and schists of the same bulk composition in the Haast River area, 80 km to the S, indicates that oligoclase appears and epidote disappears at lower temperatures, and that the composition gap between coexisting albite and oligoclase is narrower in the Franz Josef-Fox Glacier area. It is suggested that a higher thermal gradient (38-40°C/km) and variations in Si/Al ordering during growth of the plagioclases between the two areas may account for these differences. In the Alpine schists the peristerite gap exists over a temperature and pressure interval of about 370-515°C and 5.5-7 kbar (550-700 MPa) PH2O.

Notes: When the transportation risk posed by shipments of hazardous chemical and radioactive materials is being assessed, it is necessary to evaluate therisks associated with both vehicle emissions and cargo-related risks. Diesel exhaust and fugitive dust emissions from vehicles transporting hazardous shipments lead to increased air pollution, which increases the risk of latent fatalities in the affected population along the transport route. The estimated risk from these vehicle-related sources can often be as large or larger than the estimated risk associated with the material being transported. In this paper, data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Motor Vehicle-Related Air Toxics Study are first used to develop latent cancer fatality estimates per kilometer of travel in rural and urban areas forall diesel truck classes. These unit risk factors are based on studies investigating the carcinogenic nature of diesel exhaust. With the same methodology, the current per-kilometer latent fatality risk factor used in transportation risk assessments for heavy diesel trucks in urban areas is revised and the analysis expanded to provide risk factors for rural areas and all diesel truck classes. These latter fatality estimates may include, but are not limited to, cancer fatalities and are based primarily on the most recent epidemiological data available on mortality rates associated with ambient air PM-10 concentrations.

Notes: Risk assessors often use different probability plots as a way to assessthe fit of a particular distribution or model by comparing the plotted points to a straight line and to obtain estimates of the parameters in parametric distributions or models. When empirical data do not fall in a sufficiently straight line on a probability plot, and when no other single parametricdistribution provides an acceptable (graphical) fit to the data, the risk assessor may consider a mixture model with two component distributions. Animated probability plots are a way to visualize the possible behaviors of mixture models with two component distributions. When no single parametric distribution provides an adequate fit to an empirical dataset, animated probability plots can help an analyst pick some plausible mixture models for the data based on their qualitative fit. After using animations during exploratory data analysis, the analyst must then use other statistical tools, including but not limited to: Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) to find the optimal parameters, Goodness of Fit (GoF) tests, and a variety of diagnostic plots to check the adequacy of the fit. Using a specific example with two LogNormal components, we illustrate the use of animated probability plots asa tool for exploring the suitability of a mixture model with two component distributions. Animations work well with other types of probability plots, and they may be extended to analyze mixture models with three or more component distributions.

Notes: For carcinogens, this paper provides a quantitative examination of the roles of potency and weight-of-evidence (WOE) in setting permissible exposure limits (PELs) at the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and threshold limit values (TLVs) at the private American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH). On normative grounds, both of these factors should influence choices about the acceptable level of exposures. Our major objective is to examine whether and in what ways these factors have been considered by these organizations. A lesser objective is to identify outliers, which might be candidates for further regulatory scrutiny. Our sample (N=48) includes chemicals for which EPA has estimated a unit risk as a measure of carcinogenic potency and for which OSHA or the ACGIH has a PEL or TLV. Different assessments of the strength of the evidence of carcinogenicity were obtained from EPA, ACGIH, and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. We found that potency alone explains 49% of the variation in PELs and 62% of the variation in TLVs. For the ACGIH, WOE plays a much smaller role than potency. TLVs set by the ACGIH since 1989 appear to be stricter than earlier TLVs. We suggest that this change represents evidence that the ACGIH had responded to criticisms leveled at it in the late 1980s for failing to adopt sufficiently protective standards. The models developed here identify 2-nitropropane, ethylene dibromide, and chromium as having OSHA PELs significantly higher than predicted on the basis of potency and WOE.

Notes: Much has been written about the development and application of quantitative methods for estimating under uncertainty the long-term radiological performance of underground disposal of radioactive wastes. Until recently, interest has been focused almost entirely on the technical challenges regardless of the role of the organization responsible for these analyses. Now the dialogue between regulators, the repository developer or operator, and other interested parties in the decision-making process receives increasing attention, especially in view of some current difficulties in obtaining approvals to construct or operate deep facilities for intermediate or high-level wastes. Consequently, it is timely to consider the options for regulators’review and evaluation of safety submissions, at the various stages in the site selection to repository closure process, and to consider, especially, the role for performance assessment (PA) within the programs of a regulator both before and after delivery of such a submission. The origins and broad character of present regulations in the European Union (EU) and in the OECD countries are outlined and some regulatory PA reviewed. The issues raised are discussed, especially in regard to the interpretation of regulations, the dangers from the desire for simplicity in argument, the use of regulatory PA to review and challenge the PA in the safety case, and the effects of the relationship between proponent and regulator. Finally, a very limited analysis of the role of PA in public hearings is outlined and recommendations are made, together with proposals for improving the mechanisms for international collaboration on technical issues of regulatory concern.

Notes: In this paper the problem of high-level nuclear waste disposal is viewed as a five-stage, cascaded decision problem. The first four of these decisions having essentially been made, the work of recent years has been focused on the fifth stage, which concerns specifics of the repository design. The probabilistic performance assessment (PPA) work is viewed as the outcome prediction for this stage, and the site characterization work as the information gathering option. This brief examination of the proposed Yucca Mountain repository through a decision analysis framework resulted in three conclusions: (1) A decision theory approach to the process of selecting and characterizing Yucca Mountain would enhance public understanding of the issues and solutions to high-level waste management; (2) engineered systems are an attractive alternative to offset uncertainties in the containment capability of the natural setting and should receive greater emphasis in the design of the repository; and (3) a strategy of “waste management” should be adopted, as opposed to “waste disposal,” as it allows for incremental confirmation and confidence building of a permanent solution to the high-level waste problem.

Notes: Physiologically-based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models are widely used to quantify whole-body kinetics of various substances. However, since they attempt to reproduce anatomical structures and physiological events, they have ahigh number of parameters. Their identification from kinetic data alone is often impossible, and other information about the parameters is needed to render the model identifiable. The most commonly used approach consists of independently measuring, or taking fom literature sources, some of the parameters, fixing them in the kinetic model, and then performing model identification on a reduced number of less certain parameters. This results in a substantial reduction of the degrees of freedom of the model. In this study, we show that this method results in final estimates of the free parameters whose precision is overestimated. We then compared this approach with an empirical Bayes approach, which takes into account not only the mean value, but also the error associated with the independently determined parameters. Blood and breath 2H8- toluene washout curves, obtained in17 subjects, were analyzed with a previously presented PBTK model suitable for person-specific dosimetry. Model parameters with the greatest effect onpredicted levels were alveolar ventilation rate QPC, fat tissue fraction VFC, blood air partition coefficient Kb, fraction of cardiac output to fat Qa/co and rate of extrahepatic metabolismVmax.p. Differences in the measured and Bayesian-fitted values of QPC, VFc and Kb were significant (p 〈 0.05), andthe precision of the fitted values Vmax.p and Qa/co went from 11 ± 5% to 75 ± 170% (NS) and from 8 ± 2% to 9 ± 2% (p 〈 0.05) respectively. The empirical Bayes approach did not result in less reliable parameter estimates: rather, it pointed out that the precision of parameter estimates can be overly optimistic when other parameters in the model, eitherdirectly measured or taken from literature sources, are treated as known without error. In conclusion, an empirical Bayes approach to parameter estimation resulted in a better model fit, different final parameter estimates, and more realistic parameter precisions.

Notes: The US Department of Transportation was interested in the risks associated with transporting Hydrazine in tanks with and without relief devices. Hydrazine is both highly toxic and flammable, as well as corrosive. Consequently, there was a conflict as to whether a relief device should be used or not. Data were not available on the impact of relief devices on release probabilities or the impact of Hydrazine on the likelihood of fires and explosions. In this paper, a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis of the unknown parameters was used to assess the risks associated with highway transport of Hydrazine. To help determine whether or not relief devices should be used, fault trees and event trees were used to model the sequences of events that could lead to adverse consequences during transport of Hydrazine. The event probabilities in the event trees were derived as functions of the parameters whose effects were not known. The impacts of these parameters on the riskof toxic exposures, fires, and explosions were analyzed through a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis and analyzed statistically through an analysis of variance. The analysis allowed the determination of which of the unknown parameters had a significant impact on the risks. It also provided the necessary support to a critical transportation decision even though the values of several key parameters were not known.

Notes: During the modernization of the municipal waste incinerator (MWI, maximum capacity of 180,000 tons per year) of Metropolitan Grenoble (405,000 inhabitants), in France, a risk assessment was conducted, based on four tracerpollutants: two volatile organic compounds (benzene and 1,1,1 trichloroethane) and two heavy metals (nickel and cadmium, measured in particles). A Gaussian plume dispersion model, applied to maximum emissions measured at the MWI stacks, was used to estimate the distribution of these pollutants in the atmosphere throughout the metropolitan area. A random sample telephone survey (570 subjects) gathered data on time-activity patterns, according to demographic characteristics of the population. Life-long exposure was assessed as a time-weighted average of ambient air concentrations. Inhalation alone was considered because, in the Grenoble urban setting, other routes of exposure are not likely. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to describe probability distributions of exposures and risks. The median of the life-long personal exposures distribution to MWI benzene was 3.2 · 10−5μg/m3 (20th and 80th percentiles = 1.5 · 10−5 and 6.5 · 10−5μg/m3), yielding a 2.6 · 10−10 carcinogenic risk (1.2 · 10−10 - 5.4 · 10−10). For nickel, the corresponding life-time exposure and cancer risk were 1.8 ·10−4μg/m3 (0.9 ·10−4 - 3.6 ·10−4μg/m3) and 8.6 · 10−8 (4.3 · 10−8 - 17.3 ·10−8); for cadmium they were respectively 8.3 ·10−6μg/m3 (4.0 ·10−6 - 17.6 ·10−6) and 1.5 · (7.2 · 10−9 - 3.1. · 10−8). Inhalation exposure to cadmium emitted by the MWI represented less than 1% of the WHO Air Quality Guideline (5 ng/m3), while there was a margin of exposure of more than 109 between the NOAEL (150 ppm) and exposure estimates to trichloroethane. Neither dioxins nor mercury, a volatile metal, were measured. This could lessen the attributable life-long risks estimated. The minute (VOCs and cadmium) to moderate (nickel) exposure and risk estimates are in accord with other studies on modern MWIs meeting recent emission regulations, however.

Notes: Methods of quantitative risk assessment for toxic responses that are measured on a continuous scale are not well established. Although risk-assessment procedures that attempt to utilize the quantitative information in such data have been proposed, there is no general agreement that these procedures are appreciably more efficient than common quantal dose-response procedures that operate on dichotomized continuous data. This paper points out an equivalence between the dose-response models of the nonquantal approach of Kodell and West(1)) and a quantal probit procedure, and provides results from a Monte Carlo simulation study to compare coverage probabilities of statistical lower confidence limits on dose corresponding to specified additional risk based on applying the two procedures to continuous data from a dose-response experiment. The nonquantal approach is shown to be superior, in terms of both statistical validity and statistical efficiency.

Notes: This paper discusses a successful public involvement effort that addressed and resolved several highly controversial water management issues involving environmental and flood risks associated with an electrical generation facility in British Columbia. It begins with a discussion of concepts for designing public involvement, summarizing research that indicates why individuals and groups may find it difficult to make complex choices. Reasons for public involvement, and the range of current practices are discussed. Next, four principles for designing group decision process are outlined, emphasizing decision-aiding concepts that include “value-focused thinking” and “adaptive management.” The next sections discuss the Alouette River Stakeholder Committee process in terms of objectives, participation, process, methods for structuring values and creating alternatives, information sources, and results. Discussion and conclusions complete the paper.

Notes: During the 1980s, seismic research suggested that Oregon and the City of Portland had a higher risk of a major earthquake than had previously been assumed. In 1993, the State of Oregon adopted a new version of the Oregon Structural Specialty Code, which changed the designation of western Oregon from seismic zone 2b to seismic zone 3. The City of Portland established a program and a Task Force on Seismic Strengthening of Buildings to recommend actions that would encourage upgrading of city buildings. A survey of adult city residents was conducted in April, 1996 to determine public attitudes and opinions about earthquake risks, management and mitigation of earthquake hazards, priorities for protection by strengthening buildings, evaluations of strategies for informing the public about earthquake risks, and support for specific options the city might take to protect citizens against earthquake events. Social and demographic information on individuals and households was also collected. Respondents provided ratings for a wide range of social and environmental risks, provided information on priorities for strengthening key buildings and infrastructure facilities, and answered hypothetical questions about voting for bond measures to pay for city earthquake mitigation programs. Respondents recognized significant risk from earthquakes and supported programs to protect people, especially vulnerable residents such as children and the sick. There was strong support for protecting emergency response capabilities. There was much less support for using public funds to reduce the risks associated with privately owned buildings. There were also some strong pockets of resistance to publicly funded mitigation programs in response to the hypothetical bond measures.

Notes: From a comprehensive search of the literature, the hormesis phenomenon was found to occur over a wide range of chemicals, taxonomic groups, and endpoints. By use of computer searches and extensive cross-referencing, nearly 3000 potentially relevant articles were identified. Evidence of chemical and radiation hormesis was judged to have occurred in approximately 10oO of these by use of a priori criteria. These criteria included study design features (e.g., number of doses, dose range), dose-response relationship, statistical analysis, and reproducibility of results. Numerous biological endpoints were assessed, with growth responses the most prevalent, followed by metabolic effects, reproductive responses, longevity, and cancer. Hormetic responses were generally observed to be of limited magnitude with an average maximum stimulation of 30 to 60 percent over that of the controls. This maximum usually occurred 4- to 5-fold below the NOAEL for a particular endpoint. The present analysis suggests that hormesis is a reproducible and generalizable biological phenomenon and is a fundamental component of many, if not most, dose-response relationships. The relatively infrequent observation of homesis in the literature is believed to be due primarily to experimental design considerations, especially with respect to the number and range of doses and endpoint selection. Because of regulatory considerations, most toxicologic studies have been carried out at high doses above the low-dose region where the hormesis phenomenon occurs.

Notes: As the use of digital computers for instrumentation and control of safety-critical systems has increased, there has been a growing debate over the issue of whether probabilistic risk assessment techniques can be applied to these systems. This debate has centered on the issue of whether software failures can be modeled probabilistically. This paper describes a “context-based” approach to software risk assessment that explicitly recognizes the fact that the behavior of software is not probabilistic. The source of the perceived uncertainty in its behavior results from both the input to the software as well as the application and environment in which the software is operating. Failures occur as the result of encountering some context for which the software was not properly designed, as opposed to the software simply failing “randomly.” The paper elaborates on the concept of “error-forcing context” as it applies to software. It also illustrates a methodology which utilizes event trees, fault trees, and the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) to identify “error-forcing contexts” for software in the form of fault tree prime implicants.

Notes: Australian state and federal agencies use a broad range of methods for setting conservation priorities for species at risk. Some of these are based on rule sets developed by the International Union for the Conservation ofNature, while others use point scoring protocols to assess threat. All of them ignore uncertainty in the data. In this study, we assessed the conservation status of 29 threatened vascular plants from Tasmania and New South Wales using a variety of methods including point scoring and rule-based approaches. In addition, several methods for dealing with uncertainty in the data were applied to each of the prioritysetting schemes. The results indicatethat the choice of a protocol for setting priorities and the choice of the way in which uncertainty is treated may make important differences to the resulting assessments of risk. The choice among methods needs to be rationalized within the management context in which it is to be applied. These methods are not a substitute for more formal risk assessment.

Notes: This paper describes a multi-stakeholder process designed to assess thepotential health risks associated with adverse air quality in an urban industrial neighborhood. The paper briefly describes the quantitative health risk assessment conducted by scientific experts, with input by a grassroots community group concerned about the impacts of adverse air quality on theirhealth and quality of life. In this case, rather than accept the views of the scientific experts, the community used their powers of perception toadvantage by successfully advocating for a professionally conducted community health survey. This survey was designed to document, systematically and rigorously, the health risk perceptions community members associated with exposure to adverse air quality in their neighborhood. This paper describes theinstitutional and community contexts within which the research is situated as well as the design, administration, analysis, and results of the community health survey administered to 402 households living in an urban industrial neighborhood in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. These survey results served tolegitimate the community's concerns about air quality and tohelp broaden operational definitions of ‘health.’ In addition, the resultsof both healthrisk assessment exercises served to keep issues of air quality on the localpolitical agenda. Implications of these findings for our understanding of theenvironmental justice process as well as the ability of communitiesto influence environmental health policy are discussed.

Notes: Psychometric data on risk perceptions are often collected using the method developed by Slovic, Fischhoff, and Lichtenstein, where an array of risk issues are evaluated with respect to a number of risk characteristics, such as how dreadful, catastrophic or involuntary exposure to each risk is. The analysis of these data has often been carried out at an aggregate level, where mean scores for all respondents are compared between risk issues. However, this approach may conceal important variation between individuals, and individual analyses have also been performed for single risk issues. This paper presents a new methodological approach using a technique called multilevel modelling for analysing individual and aggregated responses simultaneously, to produce unconditional and unbiased results at both individual and aggregate levels of the data. Two examples are given using previously published data sets on risk perceptions collected by the authors, and results between the traditional and new approaches compared. The discussion focuses on the implications of and possibilities provided by the new methodology.

Notes: Sapphirine occurs in a 3-5 m wide zone between amphibole-lherzolite and garnetiferous metagabbro at Finero in the Ivrea Zone, NW Italian Alps. Layers consisting of plag + hb + sa + cpx + opx + sp + gt are interbanded with spinel pyroxenites, which may contain sapphirine replacing spinel. All minerals are very magnesian, with XMg between 0.78 and 0.92. Bulk rock analyses suggest that precursors to the sapphirine-bearing rocks were igneous cumulates of plagioclase + olivine + hornblende + spinel. Up to 16wt% CaO does not inhibit sapphirine formation and it is the unusually Mg-rich nature of the host rocks which allows sapphirine development. The early igneous assemblage was replaced by one of cpx + sa + hb +± plag at a pressure of 9 ± 1 kbar and temperatures of 900 ± 50°C. Subsequent rapid uplift caused the instability of gt, gt + hb, hb and sa + cpx to form opx + plag ± sp ± sa symplectites.

Notes: The Gran Paradiso basement complex of the French and Italian Alps is composed of metasediments, termed the gneiss minuti, and metabasic rocks, both of which are intruded by a late Hercynian granite. The Bonneval gneiss, which crops out at the western edge of the complex, is composed of highly deformed metasediments, volcanics and volcaniclastic rocks. Eclogites, now highly altered, occur in the metabasic rocks. Kyanite and blue-green amphibole are locally present in the gneiss minuti and aegirine plus riebeckite occur in the Bonneval gneiss. A moderately high pressure - low temperature metamorphic event of probable Alpine age occurred in the basement complex. This metamorphic event differs from that in the overlying Sesia unit and ophiolites of the Schistes lustrés nappe in being at lower pressures (below the ab = jd100+ qz transition) and post-dating the major (D2A) deformation. The origin of the metamorphism is discussed and interpreted as a probable consequence of the overlying nappe pile which was emplaced during the D2A event. Subsequent greenschist facies metamorphism in the basement complex is a consequence of thermal relaxation during uplift.

Notes: Abstract. A method for the quantitative analysis of the spatial relations of minerals is described. Dispersed distributions are formed by annealing and destroyed in post-tectonic migmatization. Aggregate distributions characterize solid-state differentiation, whereas leucosomes formed in systems of high fluid:rock ratio (in the examples studied, anatectic melts) show random distributions.Quantitative textural analysis can be used to indicate whether migmatization was post-tectonic or earlier, though caution is necessary if post-migmatite cooling is slow or if there is some minor deformation. More importantly, it can be used to discriminate melt-present from melt-absent leucosomes; this is exemplified by a suite of metamorphic and anatectic migmatites from the Scottish Caledonides.The textural evolution of anatexites with increasing melt percentage is traced. Initial feldspar porphyroblastesis occurs by Ostwald ripening via grain boundary melts; subsequently ophthalmites develop with fabrics and chemistry inherited from the palaeosome. At greater than 30% melt these inherited fabrics are wholly destroyed. Deformation prompts segregation into melanosome and leucosome; resultant leucosomes contain no inherited crystals. The scale of anatectic systems is fixed at the point at which segregation begins; ophthalmites provide evidence for melt and crystal transfer beyond original palaeosome boundaries. In contrast, metamorphic migmatites are necessarily small-scale systems because of diffusive constraints, and melanosomes are invariably produced.

Notes: The oligoclase-biotite zone of the Bessi area, central Shikoku is characterized by sodic plagioclase (XCa= 0.10–0.28)-bearing assemblages in pelitic schists, and represents the highest-grade zone of the Sanbagawa metamorphic terrain. Mineral assemblages in pelitic schists of this zone, all with quartz, sodic plagioclase, muscovite and clinozoisite (or zoisite), are garnet + biotite + chlorite + paragonite, garnet + biotite + hornblende + chlorite, and partial assemblages of these two types. Correlations between mineral compositions, mineral assemblages and mineral stability data assuming PH2O = Psolid suggests that metamorphic conditions of this zone are about 610 ± 25°C and 10 ± 1 kbar.Based upon a comparative study of mineralogy and chemistry of pelitic schists in the oligoclase-biotite zone of the Sanbagawa terrain with those in the New Caledonia omphacite zone as an example of a typical high-pressure type of metamorphic belt and with those in a generalized‘upper staurolite zone’as an example of a medium-pressure type of metamorphic belt, progressive assemblages within these three zones can be related by reactions such as:

Notes: An assemblage consisting of corundum, sapphirine, spinel, cordierite, garnet, biotite and bronzite is described from the Messina area of the Limpopo Mobile Belt, and consideration given to its petrogenesis. Various geothermometers and geobarometers have been applied in an attempt to determine the temperatures and pressures of metamorphism.A former coexistence of garnet and corundum is suggested to have developed during the earliest high pressure phase of the metamorphism, where temperatures exceeded 800°C and pressures as high as 10kbar may have been experienced. Subsequently, continuous retrograding reactions from medium pressure granulite facies at about 800°C and 8kbar towards amphibolite facies generated spinel, cordierite, sapphirine and possibly also bronzite. The most notable reaction was probably of the form: garnet + corundum = cordierite + sapphirine + spinel.

Notes: A review of currently available information relevant to the Basal Gneiss Complex (BGC) of Western South Norway, combined with the authors’own observations, leads to the following conclusions.1. Most of the BGC consists of Proterozoic crystalline rocks and probably subordinate Lower Palaeozoic cover.2. The last major deformation of these rocks was during the Caledonian orogeny and involved large-scale thrusting, recumbent folding and doming. The structural development of the BGC is closely tied in with that of the Caledonian allochthon.3. The whole eclogite-bearing part of the BGC has suffered a high pressure metamorphism with conditions of between 550°C, 12.5 kbar (Sunnfjord) and about 750°C, 20 kbar (Møre og Romsdal) at the metamorphic climax.4. This metamorphism was of Caledonian age, probably rather early in the Caledonian tectonic history of the BGC and is considered to have been a rather transient event.By setting these conclusions in a framework provided by geophysical evidence for the deep structure of the crust in southern Norway we have constructed a geotectonic model to explain the recorded metamorphic history of the BGC. It is suggested that considerable crustal thickening was caused by imbrication of the Baltic plate margin during continental collision with the Greenland plate. This resulted in high pressure metamorphism in the resulting nappe stack. Progradation of the suture caused underthrusting of the Baltic foreland below the eclogite-bearing terrain causing it to emerge at the Earth's surface, aided by tectonic stripping and erosion.Application of isostacy equations to the model shows that eclogites can be formed by in-situ metamorphism in crustal rocks and reappear at the land surface above a normal thickness of crust in a single orogenic episode of approximately 65-70 Ma duration.

Notes: Detailed geochronological, structural and petrological studies reveal that the geological evolution of the Field Islands area, East Antarctica, was substantially similar to that of the adjacent Archaean Napier Complex, though with notable differences in late and post Archaean times. These differences reflect the area's proximity to the Proterozoic Rayner Complex and consequent vulnerability to tectonic process involved in the formation of the latter. Distinctive structural features of the Field Islands are (1) consistent development of a discordant, pervasive S3 axial-plane foliation; (2) re-orientation of S3 axial planes to approximate to the subsequent E-W tectonic trend of the nearby Rayner Complex; (3) selective retrogression by a post-D3 static thermal overprint; and (4) relatively common development of retrogressive, E-W-trending, mylonitic shear zones.Peak metamorphic conditions in excess of 800°C at 900 ± 100 M Pa (9 kbar) were attained at one locality following, but probably close to the time of D2 folding. D3 took place in late Archaean times when metamorphic temperatures were about 650°C and pressures were about 600 MPa (6 kbar). Later, temperatures of 600 ± 50°C and pressures of 700 MPa (7kbar) were attained in an amphibolite-facies event, presumably associated with the widespread granulite to amphibolite-facies metamorphism and intense deformation involved in the formation of the Rayner Complex at about 1100 Ma. The area was subsequently subjected to near-isothermal uplift.Rb-Sr isotopic data indicate that the pervasive D3 fabric developed at about 2400–2500 Ma, and this age can be further refined to 2456+8-5 Ma by concordant zircon analyses from a syn-D3 pegmatite. All zircons were affected by only minor (〈7–10%) Pb loss and/or new zircon growth during the Rayner event at about 1100Ma. Thus the 450–850 μg/gU concentrations of these zircons were too low to cause sufficient lattice damage over the 1350 Ma (from 2450 Ma) for excessive Pb to be lost during the 1100 Ma event. The emplacement of pegmatite at 522 ± 10 Ma substantially changed the Rb-Sr systematics of the only analysed rock that developed a penetrative fabric during the 1100 Ma event. Monazite in this pegmatite contains an inherited Pb component, which probably resides in small opaque inclusions.A good correlation is found between Rb-Sr total-rock ages and rock fabric. U-Pb zircon intercepts with concordia also mostly correspond to known events. However, in one example a near perfect alignment of zircon analyses, probably developed by mixing of unrelated components, produced concordia intercepts that appear to have no direct geochronological significance.

Notes: Food-related illness in the United States is estimated to affect over six million people per year and cost the economy several billion dollars. These illnesses and costs could be reduced if minimum infectious doses were established and used as the basis of regulations and monitoring. However, standard methodologies for dose-response assessment are not yet formulated for microbial risk assessment. The objective of this study was to compare dose response models for food-borne pathogens and determine which models were most appropriate for a range of pathogens. The statistical models proposed in the literature and chosen for comparison purposes were log-normal,(19) log-logistic,(17) exponential,(7,9,17)ß-Poisson(7,9,18) and Welbull-Gamma.(3) These were fit to four data sets also taken from published literature, Shigella fiexneri,(9,12,13)Shigella dysenteriae,(9,11)Campylobacter jejuni,(15,16) and Salmonella typhosa,(7,14) usingthe method of maximum likelihood. The Weibull-gamma, the only model with three parameters, was also the only model capable of fitting all the data sets examined using the maximum likelihood estimation for comparisons. Infectious doses were also calculated using each model. Within any given data set, the infectious dose estimated to affect one percent of the population ranged from one order of magnitude to as much as nine orders of magnitude, illustrating the differences in extrapolation of the dose response models. More data are needed to compare models and examine extrapolation from high to low doses for food-borne pathogens.

Notes: Environmental managers are increasingly charged with involving the public in the development and modification of policies regarding risks to huma health and the environment. Involving the public in environmental decision making first requires a broad understanding of how and why the public perceives various risks. The Savannah River Stakeholder Study was conducted withthe purpose of investigating individual, economic, and social characteristics of risk perceptions among those living near the Savannah River Nuclear Weapons Site. A number of factors were found to impact risk perceptions among those living near the site. One's estimated proximity to the site and relative river location surfaced as strong determinants of risk perceptions among SRS residents. Additionally, living in a quality neighborhood and demonstrating a willingness to accept health risks for economic gain strongly abated heightened risk perceptions.

Notes: Five atmospheric transport models were evaluated for use in Phase I1 ofthe Historical Public Exposures Studies at the Rocky Flats Plant. Models included a simple straight-line Gaussian plume model (ISCST2), several integrated puff models (RATCHET, TRIAD, and INPUFF2), and a complex terrain mode (TRAC). Evaluations were based on how well model predictions compared with sulfur hexafluoride tracer measurements taken in the vicinity of Rocky Flats in February 1991. Twelve separate tracer experiments were conducted, eac lasting 9 hr and measured at 140 samplers in arcs 8 and 16 km from the release point at Rocky Flats. Four modeling objectives were defined based on the endpoints of the overall study: (1) the unpaired maximum hourly average concentration, (2) paired time-averaged concentration, (3) unpaired time-averaged concentration, and (4) arc-integrated concentration. Performance measures were used to evaluate models and focused on the geometric mean and standard deviation of the predicted-to-observed ratio and the correlation coefficient between predicted and observed concentrations. No one model consistently outperformed the others in all modeling objectives and performance measures. About 75% of the maximum hourly concentration predictions were within a factor of 5 of the observations. About 64% of the paired and 80% of the unpaired time-averaged model predictions were within a factor of 5 of theobservations. The overall performance of the RATCHET model was somewhat better than the other models. All models appeared to experience difficulty defining plume trajectories, which was attributed to the influence of multilayered flow initiated by terrain complexities and the diurnal flow patterns characteristic of the Colorado Front Range.

Notes: Calculation of accident dose-risk estimates with the RADTRAN code requires input data describing the population likely to be affected by the plumeof radioactive material (RAM) released in a hypothetical transportation accident. In the existing model, population densities within 1/2 mile (0.8 km)of the route centerline are tabulated in three ranges (Rural, Suburban, andUrban). These population densities may be of questionable validity since the plume in the RADTRAN analysis is assumed to extend out to 120 km from thehypothetical accident site. We present a GIs-based population model which accounts for the actual distribution of population under a potential plume, and compare accident-risk estimates based on the resulting population densities with those based on the existing model. Results for individual points along a route differ greatly, but the cumulative accident risks for a sample route of a few hundred kilometers are found to be comparable, if not identical. We conclude, therefore, that for estimation of aggregate accident risks over typical routes of several hundred kilometers, the existing, simpler RADTRAN model is sufficiently detailed and accurate.

Notes: This paper discusses a number of the key challenges to the acceptance and aplication of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Those challenges include:(a) the extensive reliance on subjective judgment in PRA, requiring the development of guidance for the use of PRA in risk-informed regulation, and possibly the development of “robust” or “reference” prior distributions to minimize the reliance on judgment; and (b) the treatment of human perfor-mance in PRA, including not only human errorperse but also management and organizational factors more broadly. All of these areas are seen as presentinginteresting research challenges at the interface between engineering and other disciplines.

Notes: Rational decision making requires that the total uncertainty about a variate of interest (a predictand) be quantified in terms of a probability distribution, conditional on all available information and knowledge. Supposethe state-of-knowledge is embodied in a deterministic model, which is imperfect and outputs only an estimate of the predictand. Fundamentals are presented of two Bayesian methods for producing a probabilistic forecast via anydeterministic model. The Bayesian Processor of Forecast (BPF) quantifies the total uncertainty in terms of a posterior distribution, conditional on model output. The Bayesian Forecasting System (BFS) decomposes the total uncertainty into input uncertainty and model uncertainty, which are characterized independently and then integrated into a predictive distribution. The BFS is compared with Monte Carlo simulation and “ensemble forecasting” technique, none of which can alone produce a probabilistic forecast that quantifies the total uncertainty, but each can serve as a component of the BFS.

Notes: This article describes an application of a method for assessing risks associated with the introduction of an organism into a new environment. The test organism was a binucleate Rhizoctonia fungal isolate that has potential for commercial development as a biological control agent for damping-off diseases in bedding plants. A test sample of host plant species was selected using the centrifugal phylogenetic host range principles, but with an emphasis on economic species. The effect of the fungus on the plant was measured for each species and expressed on a logarithmic scale. The effects on weights of shoots and roots per container were not normally distributed, nor were the effects on the number of plants standing (those which survived). Statements about the effect on the number standing and the shoot weight per container involved using the observed (empirical) distribution. This is illustrated with an example. Problems were encountered in defining the population of species at risk, and in deciding how this population should be formally sampled. The limitations of the method are discussed.

Notes: The heuristic-systematic information processing model (HSM) holds that individuals will use one or both of these modes of information processing when attempting to evaluate information in order to arrive at a judgment. Systematic processing is defined by effortful scrutiny and comparison of information, whereas heuristic processing is defined by the use of cues to amve more easily at a judgment. Antecedents to the two processing modes include information sufficiency, motivation, and self-efficacy. Structural equation modeling is used to examine competing configuration of this model and to evaluate the model as appropriate for predicting risk judgment. The model also is evaluated across three groups that vary with respect to their level of concern. These analyses are executed within a case study involving an epidemiological investigation of a suspected cancer cluster. The analysis confirms the HSM's theoretically proposed structure and shows it to be a useful vehicle for evaluating risk judgment. In the overall analysis, antecedent variables generally function as specified by theory. Systematic processing is predicted by greater motivation. Heuristic processing is predicted by information sufficiency. Self-efficacy is a significant predictor of both processing modes. And heuristic processing is shown to be associated with judgment of less risk. However, when the analysis is contrasted across three groups (those concerned about cancer, not concerned and uncertain) it is shown that the model is significantly more robust for the uncertain group. This finding may have implications for the use of the HSM in risk research specifically, and in field research generally.

Notes: South Carolina has issued fish consumption advisories for the Savannah River based on mercury and radionuclide levels. We examine differences in fishing rates and fish consumption of 258 people interviewed while fishing along the Savannah River, as a function of age, education, ethnicity, employment history, and income, and test the assumption that the average consumption of fish is less than the recreational value of 19 kg/year assumed by risk assessors. Ethnicity and education contributed significantly to explaining variations in number of fish meals per month, serving size, and total quantity of fish consumed per year. Blacks fished more often, ate more fish meals of slightly larger serving sizes, and consumed more fish per year than did Whites. Although education and income were correlated, education contributed most significantly to behavior; people who did not graduate from high school ate fish more often, ate more fish per year, and ate more whole fish than people who graduated from high school. Computing consumption of fish for each person individually indicates that (1) people who eat fish more often also eat larger portions, (2) a substantial number of people consume more than the amount of fish used to compute risk to recreational fishermen, (3) some people consume more than the subsistence level default assumption (50 kglyear) and (4) Blacks consume more fish per year than Whites, putting them at greater risk from contaminants in fish. Overall, ethnicity, age, and education contributed to variations in fishing behavior and consumption.

Notes: The association between daily fluctuations in ambient particulate matter and daily variations in nonaccidental mortality have been extensively investigated. Although it is now widely recognized that such an association exists, the form of the concentration-response model is still in question. Linear, no threshold and linear threshold models have been most commonly examined. In this paper we considered methods to detect and estimate threshold concentrations using time series data of daily mortality rates and air pollution concentrations. Because exposure is measured with error, we also considered the influence of measurement error in distinguishing between these two completing model specifications. The methods were illustrated on a 15-year daily time series of nonaccidental mortality and particulate air pollution data in Toronto, Canada. Nonparametric smoothed representations of the association between mortality and air pollution were adequate to graphically distinguish between these two forms. Weighted nonlinear regression methods for relative risk models were adequate to give nearly unbiased estimates of threshold concentrations even under conditions of extreme exposure measurement error. The uncertainty in the threshold estimates increased with the degree of exposure error. Regression models incorporating threshold concentrations could be clearly distinguished from linear relative risk models in the presence of exposure measurement error. The assumption of a linear model given that a threshold model was the correct form usually resulted in overestimates in the number of averted premature deaths, except for low threshold concentrations and large measurement error.

Notes: Facility-specific information on pollution was obtained for 36 coke plants and 46 oil refineries in the United States and matched with information on populations surrounding these 82 facilities. These data were analyzed to determine whether environmental inequities were present, whether they were more economic or racial in nature, and whether the racial composition of nearby communities has changed significantly since plants began operations. The Census tracts near coke plants have a disproportionate share of poor and nonwhite residents. Multivariate analyses suggest that existing inequities are primarily economic in nature. The findings for oil refineries are not strongly supportive of the environmental inequity hypothesis. Rank ordering of facilities by race, poverty, and pollution produces limited (although not consistent) evidence that the more risky facilities tend to be operating in communities with above-median proportions of nonwhite residents (near coke plants) and Hispanic residents (near oil refineries). Over time, the racial makeup of many communities near facilities has changed significantly, particularly in the case of coke plants sited in the early 1900s. Further risk-oriented studies of multiple manufacturing facilities in various industrial sectors of the economy are recommended.

Notes: We investigated the way results of human health risk assessments are used, and the theory used to describe those methods, sometimes called the “NAS paradigm.” Contrary to a key tenet of that theory, current methods have strictly limited utility. The characterizations now considered standard, Safety Indices such as “Acceptable Daily Intake,”“Reference Dose,” and so on, usefully inform only decisions that require a choice between two policy alternatives (e.g., approve a food additive or not), decided solely on the basis of a finding of safety. Riskis characterized as the quotient of one of these Safety Indices divided by an estimate of exposure: a quotient greater than one implies that the situation may be considered safe. Such decisions are very widespread, both in the U. S. federal government and elsewhere. No current method is universal; different policies lead to different practices, for example, in California's “Proposition 65,” where statutory provisions specify some practices. Further, an important kind of human health risk assessment is not recognized by this theory: this kind characterizes risk as likelihood of harm, given estimates of exposure consequent to various decision choices. Likelihood estimates are necessary whenever decision makers have many possible decision choices and must weigh more than two societal values, such as in EPA's implementation of “conventional air pollutants.” These estimates can not be derived using current methods; different methods are needed. Our analysis suggests changes needed in both the theory and practice of human health risk assessment, and how what is done is depicted.

Notes: The prominent role of animal bioassay evidence in environmental regulatory decisions compels a careful characterization of extrapolation uncertainties. In noncancer risk assessment, uncertainty factors are incorporated to account for each of several extrapolations required to convert a bioassay outcome into a putative subthreshold dose for humans. Measures of relative toxicity taken between different dosing regimens, different endpoints, or different species serve as a reference for establishing the uncertainty factors. Ratios of no observed adverse effect levels (NOAELs) have been used for this purpose; statistical summaries of such ratios across sets of chemicals are widely used to guide the setting of uncertainty factors. Given the poor statistical properties of NOAELs, the informativeness of these summary statistics is open to question. To evaluate this, we develop an approach to “calibrate” the ability of NOAEL ratios to reveal true properties of a specified distribution for relative toxicity. A priority of this analysis is to account for dependencies of NOAEL ratios on experimental design and other exogenous factors. Our analysis of NOAEL ratio summary statistics finds (1) that such dependencies are complex and produce pronounced systematic errors and (2) that sampling error associated with typical sample sizes (50 chemicals) is nonnegligible. These uncertainties strongly suggest that NOAEL ratio summary statistics cannot be taken at face value; conclusions based on such ratios reported in well over a dozen published papers should be reconsidered.

Notes: We compare the regulatory implications of applying the traditional (linearized) and exact two-stage dose-response models to animal carcinogenic data. We analyze dose-response data from six studies, representing five different substances, and we determine the “goodness- of-fit” of each model as well as the 95% confidence lower limit ofthe dose corresponding to a target excess risk of 10-5 (the target risk doseTRD). For the two concave datasets, we find that the exact model gives a substantially better fit to the data than the traditional model, and that the exact model gives aTRD that is an order of magnitude lower than that given by the traditional model. In the other cases, the exact model gives a fit equivalent to or better than the traditional model. We also show that although the exact two-stage model may exhibit dose-response concavity at moderate dose levels, it is always linear or sublinear, and never supralinear, in the low-dose limit. Because regulatory concern is almost always confined to the low-dose region extrapolation, supralinear behavior seems not to be of regulatory concern in the exact two-stage model. Finally, we find that when performing this low-dose extrapolation in cases of dose-response concavity, extrapolating the model fit leads to a more conservative TRD than taking a linear extrapolation from 10% excess risk. We conclude with a set of recommendations.

Notes: The characterization and treatment of uncertainty poses special challenges when modeling indeterminate or complex coupled systems such as those involved in the interactions between human activity, climate and the ecosystem. Uncertainty about model structure may become as, or more important than, uncertainty about parameter values. When uncertainty grows so large that prediction or optimization no longer makes sense, it may still be possible to use the model as a “behavioral test bed” to examine the relative robustness of alternative observational and behavioral strategies. When modelsmust be run into portions of their phase space that are not well understood, different submodels may become unreliable at different rates. A common example involves running a time stepped model far into the future. Several strategies can be used to deal with such situations. The probability of model failure can be reported as a function of time. Possible alternative “surprises” can be assigned probabilities, modeled separately, and combined. Finally, through the use of subjective judgments, one may be able to combine, and over time shift between models, moving from more detailed to progressively simpler order-of-magnitude models, and perhaps ultimately, on to simple bounding analysis.

Notes: In any model the values of estimates for various parameters are obtained from different sources each with its own level of uncertainty. When the probability distributions of the estimates are obtained as opposed to point values only, the measurement uncertainties in the parameter estimates may be addressed. However, the sources used for obtaining the data and the models used to select appropriate distributions are of differing degrees of uncertainty. A hierarchy of different sources of uncertainty based upon one's ability to validate data and models empirically is presented. When model parameters are aggregated with different levels of the hierarchy represented, this implies distortion or degradation in the utility and validity of the models used. Means to identify and deal with such heterogeneous data sourcesare explored, and a number of approaches to addressing this problem is presented. One approach, using Range/confidence Estimates coupled with an Information Value Analysis Process, is presented as an example.

Notes: Variability arises due to differences in the value of a quantity among different members of a population. Uncertainty arises due to lack of knowledge regarding the true value of a quantity for a given member of a population. We describe and evaluate two methods for quantifying both variability and uncertainty. These methods, bootstrapsimulation and a likelihood-based method, are applied to three datasets. The datasetsinclude a synthetic sample of 19 values from a Lognormal distribution, a sample of nine values obtained from measurements of the PCB concentration in leafy produce, and asample of five values for the partitioning of chromium in the flue gas desulfurization system of coal-fired power plants. For each of these datasets, we employ the two methods to characterize uncertainty in the arithmetic mean and standard deviation, cumulative distribution functions based upon fitted parametric distributions, the 95th percentile of variability, and the 63rd percentile of uncertainty for the 81st percentile of variability. The latter is intended to show that it is possible to describe anypoint within the uncertain frequency distribution by specifying an uncertainty percentile and a Variability percentile. Using the bootstrap method, we compare results based upon use of the method of matching moments and the method of maximum likelihood for fitting distributions to data. Our results indicate that with only 5-19 data pointsas in the datasets we have evaluated, there is substantial uncertainty based upon random sampling error. Both the boostrap and likelihood-based approaches yield comparable uncertainty estimates in most cases.

Notes: An occurrence of quartz-eclogite is described from the Inner Schieferhülle unit of the Pennine Basement Complex in the SE Tauern Window, Austria.Field relations strongly suggest a pre-Alpine age for the primary eclogitic mineral assemblage (garnet + omphacite + quartz + rutile). This implies that there was no connection between the formation of these eclogites and the late Cretaceous and Tertiary tectonic evolution of the Eastern Alps. The quartz-eclogite mineral assemblage crystallized under conditions of 620 ± 100°C and at pressures in excess of 12 kbar, and suffered amphibolitic overprinting of Alpine and possibly Hercynian age.A four-stage polymetamorphic history is proposed for the Inner Schieferhülle:

Notes: Mafic and ultramafic xenoliths in a basaltic cone at The Anakies in south-eastern Australia are geochemically equivalent to continental basaltic magmas and cumulates. The xenolith microstructures range from recognizably meta-igneous for intrusive rocks to granoblastic for garnet pyroxenites. Contact relationships between different rock types within some xenoliths suggest a complex petrogenesis of multiple intrusive, metamorphic and metasomatic events at the crust/mantle boundary during the evolution of south-eastern Australia. Unaltered spinel lher-zolite, typical of the uppermost eastern Australian mantle, is interleaved with or veined by the metamorphosed intrusive rocks of basaltic composition.Geothermobarometry calculations by a variety of methods show a concordance of equilibration temperatures ranging from 880°C to 980°C and pressures of 12 to 18 kbar (1200-1800 mPa). These physical conditions span the gabbro to granulite to eclogite transition boundaries. The water-vapour pressure during equilibration is estimated to be about 0.5% of the load pressure, using amphibole breakdown data. Large fluid inclusions of pure CO2 are abundant in the mineral phases in the xenoliths, and it is suggested that flux of CO2 from the mantle has been an important heat source and fluid medium during metamorphism of the mafic and ultramafic protoliths at the lower crust/upper mantle boundary.The calculated pressures and temperatures suggest that the south-eastern Australian crust has sustained a high geothermal gradient. In addition, the nature of the mineral assemblages and the contact relationships of granulitic rock with spinel lherzolite, characteristic of mantle material, suggest that the Moho is not a discrete feature in this region, but is represented by a transition zone approximately 20 km thick. These inferences are in agreement with geophysical data (including seismic, heat-flow and electrical resistivity data) determined for south-eastern Australia.Underplating at the crust/mantle boundary by continental basaltic magmas may be an important alternative or additional mechanism to the conventional andesite model for crustal accretion.

Notes: Suppose that a residential neighborhood may have been contaminated by anearby abandoned hazardous waste site. The suspected contamination consistsof elevated soil concentrations of chemicals that are also found in the absence of site-related contamination. How should a risk manager decide which residential properties to sample and which ones to clean? This paper introduces an adaptive spatial sampling approach which uses initial observations to guide subsequent search. Unlike some recent model-based spatial data analysis methods, it does not require any specific statistical model for the spatial distribution of hazards, but instead constructs an increasingly accurate nonparametric approximation to it as sampling proceeds. Possible cost-effective sampling and cleanup decision rules are described by decision parameters such as the number of randomly selected locations used to initialize the process, the number of highest-concentration locations searched around, the number of samples taken at each location, a stopping rule, and a remediation action threshold. These decision parameters are optimized by simulating the performance of each decision rule. The simulation is performed using the data collected so far to impute multiple probable values ofunknown soil concentration distributions during each simulation run. This optimized adaptive spatial sampling technique has been applied to real data using error probabilities for wrongly cleaning or wrongly failing to clean each location (compared to the action that would be taken if perfect information were available) as evaluation criteria. It provides a practical approach for quantifying trade-offs between these different types of errors and expected cost. It also identifies strategies that are undominated with respect to all of these criteria.

Notes: A call for risk assessment approaches that better characterize and quantify uncertainty has been made by the scientific and regulatory community. This paper responds to that call by demonstrating a distributional approachthat draws upon human data to derive potency estimates and to identify and quantify important sources of uncertainty. The approach is rooted in the science of decision analysis and employs an influence diagram, a decision tree, probabilistic weights, and a distribution of point estimates of carcinogenic potency. Its results estimate the likelihood of different carcinogenicrisks (potencies) for a chemical under a specific scenario. For this exercise, human data on formaldehyde were employed to demonstrate the approach. Sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the relative impact of specific levels and alternatives on the potency distribution. The resulting potency estimates are compared with the results of an exercise using animal data on formaldehyde. The paper demonstrates that distributional risk assessment is readily adapted to situations in which epidemiologic data serve as the basis for potency estimates. Strengths and weaknesses of the distributional approach are discussed. Areas for further application and research are recommended.

Notes: The paper applies classical statistical principles to yield new tools for risk assessment and makes new use of epidemiological data for human riskassessment. An extensive clinical and epidemiological study of workers engaged in the manufacturing and formulation of aldrin and dieldrin provides occupational hygiene and biological monitoring data on individual exposures over the years of employment and provides unusually accurate measures of individual lifetime average daily doses. In the cancer dose-response modeling, each worker is treated as a separate experimental unit with his own unique dose. Maximum likelihood estimates of added cancer risk are calculated for multistage, multistage-Weibull, and proportional hazards models. Distributional characterizations of added cancer risk are based on bootstrap and relative likelihood techniques. The cancer mortality data on these male workerssuggest that low-dose exposures to aldrin and dieldrin do not significantlyincrease human cancer risk and may even decrease the human hazard rate for all types of cancer combined at low doses (e.g., 1μg/kg/day). The apparent hormetic effect in the best fitting dose-response models for this data set is statistically significant. The decrease in cancer risk at low doses ofaldrin and dleldrin is in sharp contrast to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's upper bound on cancer potency based on mouse liver tumors. The EPA's upper bound implies that lifetime average daily doses of 0.0000625 and 0.00625 pμg/kg body weight/day would correspond to increased cancer risks of 0.000001 and O.OOO1, respectively. However, the best estimate from the Pernis epidemiological data is that there is no increase in cancer risk in these workers at these doses or even at doses as large as 2 μg/kg/day.

Notes: Ethylene oxide (EO) research has significantly increased since the 1980s, when regulatory risk assessments were last completed on the basis of theanimal cancer chronic bioassays. In tandem with the new scientific understanding, there have been evolutionary changes in regulatory risk assessment guidelines, that encourage flexibility and greater use of scientific information. The results of an updated meta-analysis of the findings from 10 unique EO study cohorts from five countries, including nearly 33,000 workers, and over 800 cancers are presented, indicating that EO does not cause increased risk of cancers overall or of brain, stomach or pancreatic cancers. The findings for leukemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) are inconclusive. Two studies with the requisite attributes of size, individual exposure estimates and follow up are the basis for dose-response modeling and added lifetime risk predictions under environmental and occupational exposure scenariosand a variety of plausible alternative assumptions. A point of departure analysis, with various margins of exposure, is also illustrated using human data. The two datasets produce remarkably similar leukemia added risk predictions, orders of magnitude lower than prior animal-based predictions under conservative, default assumptions, with risks on the order of 1 × 10−6 or lower for exposures in the low ppb range. Inconsistent results for “lymphoid” tumors, a non-standard grouping using histologic information from death certificates, are discussed. This assessment demonstrates the applicability of the current risk assessment paradigm to epidemiological data.

Notes: The human toxicity potential, a weighting scheme used to evaluate toxicemissions for life cycle assessment and toxics release inventories, is based on potential dose calculations and toxicity factors. This paper evaluatesthe variance in potential dose calculations that can be attributed to the uncertainty in chemical-specific input parameters as well as the variabilit in exposure factors and landscape parameters. A knowledge of the uncertainty allows us to assess the robustness of a decision based on the toxicity potential; a knowledge of the sources of uncertainty allows us to focus our resources if we want to reduce the uncertainty. The potential dose of 236 chemicals was assessed. The chemicals were grouped by dominant exposure route, and a Monte Carlo analysis was conducted for one representative chemical in each group. The variance is typically one to two orders of magnitude. For comparison, the point estimates in potential dose for 236 chemicals span ten orders of magnitude. Most of the variance in the potential dose is due to chemical-specific input parameters, especially half-lives, although exposure factors such as fish intake and the source of drinking water can be important for chemicals whose dominant exposure is through indirect routes. Landscape characteristics are generally of minor importance.

Notes: To assess soil and groundwater quality two generic (i.e. multifunctional) risk-based standards, Target and Intervention Value, have been developed, in the framework of the Dutch Soil Protection Act. These standards allow soil and groundwater to be classified as clean, slightly contaminated or seriously contaminated. The Target Value is basedon potential risks to ecosysystems, while the Intervention Value is based oqpotential risks to humans and ecosystems. In the case of serious soil contamination the site has, in principle, to be remediated, making it necessary to determine the remediation urgency on the basis of actual (i.e. site-specific) risks to humans and ecosystems and, besides, actual risks due to contaminant migration.

Notes: The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is a geological repository for disposal ofU.S. defense transuranic radioactive waste. Built and operated by the U.S. Departmentof Energy (DOE), it is located in the Permian age salt beds in southeastern New Mexico at a depth of 655 m. Performance assessment for the repository's compliance with the 10,000-year containment standards was completed in 1996 and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) certified in 1998 that the repository meets compliance with the EPA standards 40 CFR 191 and 40 CFR 194. The Environmental Evaluation Group (EEG) review of the DOE'S application for certification identified a number of issues. These related to the scenarios, conceptual models, and values of the input parameters used in the calculations. It is expected that these issues will be addressed and resolved during the first 5-year recertification process that began with the first receipt of waste at WIPP on March 26, 1999, and scheduled to be completed in March 2004.

Notes: The estimation of health risks from exposure to a mixture of chemical carcinogens is generally based on the combination of information from several available single compound studies. The current practice of directly summing the upper bound risk estimates of individual carcinogenic components as an upper bound on the total risk of a mixture is known to be generally too conservative. Gaylor and Chen (1996, Risk Analysis) proposed a simple procedure to compute an upper bound on the total risk using only the upper confidence limits and central risk estimates of individual carcinogens. The Gaylor-Chen procedure was derived based on an underlying assumption of the normality for the distributions of individual risk estimates. In this paper we evaluated the Gaylor-Chen approach in terms of the coverage probability. The performance of the Gaylor-Chen approach in terms the coverages of the upper confidence limits on the true risks of individual carcinogens. In general, if the coverage probabilities for the individual carcinogens are all approximately equal to the nominal level, then the Gaylor-Chen approach shouldperform well. However, the Gaylor-Chen approach can be conservative or anti-conservative if some or all individual upper confidence limit estimates are conservative or anti-conservative.

Notes: Political context may play a large role in influencing the efficiency of environmental and health regulations. This case study uses data from a 1989 update of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) Permissible Exposure Limits (PELS) program to determine the relative effects of legislative mandates, costly acquisition of information by the agency, and pressure applied by special interest groups upon exposure standards. The empirical analysis suggests that federal agencies successfully thwart legislative attempts to limit agency discretion, and that agencies exercise bounded rationality by placing greater emphasis on more easily obtained information. The 1989 PEL were less significantly related to more costly information, contained “safety factors” for chemicals presenting relatively more ambiguous risks, and the proposed standard stringencies showed evidence of beinginfluenced by vying industry and labor interests.