ALBERT

Notizen: The existence of high-density, nearly-structureless bedrock buried by relatively low-density sediments makes gravity prospecting a very informative technique for bedrock-topography studies of the northern Appalachian Plateaus. Locating bedrock exposures and using available well data reduces the area of the gravity search. Depths to bedrock from wells correlate excellently with depths from gravity anomalies. The minimum anomaly detected was 0·18 milligal, corresponding to a depth of approximately 40 feet.

Notizen: A comparative study was undertaken on the decay rates of three bacterial types (S. typhimurium, E. coli and S. faecalis), an enterovirus (poliovirus type 1) and a bacterial phage (f2) in ground water maintained under laboratory conditions. Except for f2 phage, all the microorganisms tested were relatively stable in ground water. S. faecalis survived best among all the bacteria tested and its decay rate was similar to that of poliovirus type 1.Under field conditions, bacterial indicators were also found to be stable in the ground-water environment. The decay rate for fecal streptococci was lower than for fecal or total coliforms in the shallow wells.

Notizen: A technique has been developed for the determination of the exchangeable cation population of calcareous sandy material with cation exchange capacities of less than 1 meq/100 g. The technique involves the addition of exchange salt in the dry state to samples of porous media using original pore water as the exchange salt solvent. In applying this technique to samples from below the water table, the amount of pore water available for reaction is reduced by centrifuging in the field to bring the moisture content close to field capacity values. By utilizing the minimum amount of pore water, interferences during the exchange process due to calcite precipitation or dissolution are minimized. The extent of calcite dissolution or precipitation that occurs can be appraised by measuring alkalinity or total carbon on the pore water before and after addition of the exchange salt. Three salts, NH4C1, CsCl and LiCl were tested for their suitability for this technique. CsCl was found to be preferable because of its low tendency to dissolve carbonate and the preference of Cs+ on exchange sites.Application of the method to a field site in southern Ontario yielded a value of 0.51 ± 0·09 meq/100 g over 15 samples for the cation exchange capacity of a near surface glaciofluvial sand deposit. It is believed that this technique could be applied with reasonable accuracy and reproducibility to materials with exchange capacities of as low as 0·1 meq/100 g.

Notizen: The upconing of the salt-water interface in an unconfined coastal aquifer due to water withdrawal by an infiltration gallery is analyzed numerically based on the variational formulation of the problem. Sometimes in coastal areas, from the point of view of safe withdrawal of water on a long-term basis, the use of an infiltration gallery is found to be feasible in preventing severe upconing of the interface that would have resulted from heavy pumpage by a vertical well. The numerical procedure presented here is capable of delineating profiles of the free surface and interface along with the length of the outflow face and quantity of freshwater flow to the sea. Full consideration of the nonlinear boundary conditions on the free surface and interface is included for a steady flow towards a gallery in both isotropic and anisotropic aquifers. The extent of upconing of the interface under different operating conditions of the gallery for different aquifer geometries has been studied. A general understanding of the flow phenomenon in the vicinity of the gallery has been established. The results of the analysis can be used to plan a water withdrawal scheme without causing contamination by salt water.

Notizen: The streambed-leakage factor ranged from 0.11 to 1.68 million gallons per day per acre per foot of head loss. Most values for the streambed infiltration rate and the streambed-leakage factor for six tests before 1970 were higher than for six tests in 1976–79, suggesting a change in streambed permeability in the intervening time.A well field to serve a government-owned uranium enrichment facility, consisting initially of 4 wells, later increased to 15 wells, was designed to yield up to 20 million gallons per day. The wells are on a line parallel to the river at distances from the stream ranging from 122 to 330 feet. Distance between wells ranges from 190 to 303 feet. Specific capacities of the wells, based on 24-hour acceptance tests, ranged from 63 to 147 gallons per minute per foot of drawdown and averaged 100 gallons per minute per foot of drawdown. By late Summer of 1976, pumpage from all 15 wells ranged from 12 to 15 million gallons per day. Drawdown was about as expected, based on design criteria developed from the aquifer tests, except that pumping levels were lower than expected in the Fall and Winter of 1976–77, resulting from low streamflow and low river temperature.

Notizen: Vast deposits of oil shale are contained in the Piceance basin in northwestern Colorado. The basin may contain as much as 40 million acre-feet of stored water associated with these deposits, much of which may have to be drained for mining. Yet, most analyses of watersupply for oil-shale development have focused on surface water with only brief mention of ground water.This study used a synthetic streamflow model to investigate the effects of using conservative estimates of ground water on the required active storage capacity of a hypothetical reservoir on the White River. Results of the study indicate that use of ground water from mine drainage and/or auxiliary wells may have a significant impact on the size and timing of surface-water reservoirs. Thus, ground water may be an important source of supply, particularly during early development of an oil-shale industry. The study results strongly suggest that further investigations are needed on the physical availability of ground water as well as the institutional, legal and waterquality constraints on its use.

Notizen: Egypt is presently involved in a comprehensive program of land reclamation. Surface water has already been exhausted in meeting the urgent needs of agricultural expansion. If irrigation efficiency were increased, large amounts of surface water would be saved. However, this entails complex social, technical and political problems outside the scope of this paper. Ground-water development has priority over increasing irrigation efficiency (which would take a longer time).This paper deals with identification of the intruded salt-water wedge in the huge artesian Delta aquifer. The case is unique because most of this aquifer is invaded by salt water, and the major portion of its annual ground-water recharge is derived from the direct seepage from the Nile River and the huge net of irrigation canals serving about 3 million acres (∼ 11,561 km2) of fertile land, as well as the infiltration of excess irrigation water. The annual overall ground-water recharge to the aquifer was estimated as 6·40 km3/yr as explained later.Methods of salt-water control and various techniques of water resources management are discussed in this paper. Because of the great variation in the depth of the aquifer, two unconventional methods for identifying the salt-water wedge are also presented.

Notizen: . Programs are presented for the HP41C and TI59 programmable calculators for determining the ratio of horizontal to vertical hydraulic conductivity in anisotropic confined aquifers from pumping test data or for calculating drawdown given the aquifer parameters. The programs, based on Hantush's drawdown equations (1961), eliminate the need to perform triple interpolation in obtaining the drawdown correction factor given in tabular form by Weeks (1969). The programs are illustrated by example.

Notizen: A numerical model of flow and transport in the vicinity of Price's Landfill and the Atlantic City public water-supply wells is used to estimate the extent of the existing contamination problem. Model parameters such as boundary conditions, pumping rates, permeability, and dispersivity are varied to demonstrate the sensitivity of the model to these quantities. A historical simulation of the past ten years of contamination is obtained and two schemes for remediation of the contamination problem are compared. In the light of this work, additional data requirements are revealed.

Notizen: Ion-exchange high performance liquid chromatography coupled with ultraviolet absorption detection is shown to be a rapid and sensitive method for analysis of some common anions in water. Sensitivity of measurement is approximately 50 ppb for NO−2, NO−3, Br−, I−, and SCN− while Cl− has a detection limit in the one to ten ppm range. Chromatograms require 8 to 13 minutes to complete. Analyses are performed on either of two stationary phases (Whatman SAX 10 μm or Brownlee anion exchange) depending on the anions of interest in the analysis and their interferences.

Notizen: Vertical electrical soundings using DC resistivity methods have been completed along over 60 miles of survey lines in southwest Florida. The resistivity soundings were obtained in order to outline major hydrogeologic features as part of a regional hydrogeologic investigation covering approximately 400 square miles. The two significant hydrogeologic features which can be effectively mapped on a regional scale by DC methods are the presence of shallow, high resistivity limestones associated with late Tertiary reef complexes, and the approximate depth to waters with TDS concentrations well above the potable water limits. The reef limestones commonly exhibit very high transmissivities and are potential sites for ground-water development. The approximate thickness of potable waters allows resource investigations to be limited to the most promising areas and a rough assessment of the total resource to be made for long-term planning. The interpretation and mapping of the resistivity section is accomplished through published resistivity inversion and computer graphics programs. This automated data processing produces resistivity maps and sections without requiring extensive geophysical training of the interpreter. The automatic interpretations compare well with more traditional master curve interpretation procedures, and have the same limitations with equivalence of solutions and geologic correlation, but are produced with considerably less effort.

Notizen: With an Apple II microcomputer it is possible to rapidly generate and graphically compare theoretical time-drawdown curves with field data from pumping tests in confined aquifers. This technique has the advantage over standard curve-matching methods in that any solution can be tested over the complete range of field data.

Notizen: An exact expression is derived for the optimal spacing between interfering wells in a rectangular well field in an ideal confined aquifer. A simple, practical method for determining the optimal spacing is presented. The optimal spacing is shown to be substantially different from the spacing determined by use of the Theis formulation. The economic savings resulting from use of the revised approach are evaluated and found to be considerable, especially when the number of wells is large and the transmissivity of the aquifer low.

Notizen: Abstract. A hydrologic test system has been designed to measure the intrinsic permeabilities of individual fractures in crystalline rock. This report contains the design schematics and specifications necessary to build and/or modify this test system for other similar field applications. This system is used to conduct constant pressure/declining flow rate and pressure pulse hydraulic tests. The system is composed of four distinct units: (1) The Packer System, (2) Injection System, (3) Collection System, and (4) Electronic Data Acquisition System. The apparatus is built in modules so it can be easily transported and reassembled. It is also designed to operate over a wide range of pressures (0–300 psig) and flow rates (0.2–1.0 gal/min). This system has proved extremely effective and versatile in its use at the Climax Facility, Nevada Test Site.

Notizen: Field and laboratory analyses of pH, alkalinity, and specific conductance from water samples collected from the Columbia aquifer on the Delmarva Peninsula in eastern Maryland were compared to determine if laboratory analyses could be used for making regional water-quality interpretations.On the basis of 170 field pH and specific conductance measurements, 165 laboratory pH and specific conductance measurements, and 86 field and 135 laboratory alkalinity measurements, a significant difference at the 0.1-percent level was found between laboratory and field analyses of pH and specific conductance. No significant difference was found between laboratory and field analyses of alkalinity. In most samples, laboratory pH was greater than field pH, laboratory specific conductance was less than field specific conductance, and laboratory alkalinity was equally likely to be less than, the same as, or greater than field alkalinity.Kruskal-Wallis tests of field and laboratory data grouped by north-south and east-west coordinates and by land use indicate that the difference between field and laboratory values is usually not enough to affect the outcome of the statistical tests. Thus, laboratory measurements of these constituents may be adequate for making certain regional water-quality interpretations, although they may result in errors if used for geochemical interpretations.

Notizen: Preliminary vadose zone nitrate extraction experiments have revealed the extractant (2N KCl) volume affects the determination of nitrate and its nitrogen isotope ratio.In five cores, extractable NO3-N concentrations increased an average of 1.7 times after the soil-to-extractant ratio was increased from 1:1 to 1:10. An increased extractant volume resulted in a large positive shift of stable nitrogen values (δ15N), which averaged +6.2%.An underestimation of available NO3-N for leaching and transport through the vadose zone and a biased source interpretation from the δ15N values probably would occur if a procedure which leads to incomplete extraction of nitrate is used.

Notizen: Currently, one of the most popular methods of containing contaminated ground water is through use of subsurface impermeable barriers. These barriers can take one of three forms: slurry walls, grout curtains, or steel sheet piles. Successful operation of these barrier systems is dependent upon three basic criteria. First, the barrier must be truly impermeable and remain so over time even upon exposure to the contaminated ground water. Second, there must exist an underlying impermeable formation, at a reasonable depth, to which the barrier can be connected. Third, an adequate connection between the barrier and the underlying formation must be assured.This paper presents the results of the analysis of the movement of contaminated ground water under or through an imperfect barrier. The first phase of the analysis consists of the development of an analytical solution for the flow of ground water under a barrier and a simple numerical integration technique for developing concentration breakthrough curves. This simple solution algorithm was applied to the cases of variable recharge rates and lengths, variable depths of penetration of the barrier, and anisotropic soils. The second phase of the analysis involves applying a numerical solute transport model to analyze the performance of a barrier with and without the effects of hydrodynamic dispersion, and in the presence of a layered soil, and finally the performance of a fully penetrating but partially permeable barrier.

Notizen: Hydrogeologic and ground water quality data obtained from a gas-driven multilevel sampler system and a polyvinyl chloride (PVC) monitoring well nest with the same aquifer communication intervals are compared. All monitoring points are in close proximity to each other.The study was conducted at an eight-acre uncontrolled hazardous waste site. The site is located in an alluvial valley composed of approximately 40 feet of alluvium overlying shale bedrock. The ground water at the site is contaminated with various organic constituents.A ground water monitoring network consisting of 26 conventional monitoring wells, nine observation well points, and six multilevel gas-driven samplers was established to characterize the hydrogeologic regime and define the vertical and horizontal extent of contamination in the vicinity of the abandoned chemical plant. As part of this study, a multilevel monitoring system was installed adjacent to a well nest. The communication zones of the multilevel samplers were placed at the same elevation as the sand packs of the well nest. The multilevel sampler system and well nest are located in a contaminated area directly downgradient of the site. A comparison of the vertical head distribution and ground water quality was performed between the well nest and the multilevel sampling system.The gas-driven multilevel sampling system consists of three gas-driven samplers that monitor separate intervals in the unconsolidated materials. The well nest, composed of two PVC monitoring wells in separate boreholes, has the same communication interval as the other two gas-driven samplers.Hydraulic head information for each multilevel sampler was obtained using capillary tubing. This was compared with heads obtained from the well nest utilizing an electric water level indicator.Chemical analyses from the PVC and multilevel sampler wells were performed and compared with one another. The analyses included organic acids, base neutrals, pesticides, PCBs, metals, volatile organics, TOX, TOC, CN, pH and specific conductance.

Notizen: A total of four vertical electrical soundings were conducted in a layered andesitic rock aquifer known in places to yield ground water with total dissolved solids (TDS) in excess of 2,000 milligrams per liter (mg/L). The objective of the soundings was to locate zones of moderate to high permeability but with acceptable chemical quality.The resistivity of a geologic unit is a function that includes the quantity of total dissolved solids in the interstitial water and the distribution of the water within the unit. Thus, the resistivity of most granular soils and rocks is controlled more by porosity, water content and water quality than by the conductivity of the matrix materials.The electrical data delimited a drill site where it was believed that ground water of acceptable chemical quality could be expected. Completion and test pumping of two exploration wells confirmed the electrical sounding results.The first test well drilled prior to the survey yielded only small amounts of ground water with total dissolved solids in excess of 2,000 mg/L. The second exploration well drilled at the site as a result of the electrical study yielded in excess of 100 gallons per minute of ground water with total dissolved solids of 830 mg/L.

Notizen: An advanced two-way radio link (transceiver units) and data logging system have provided a powerful means of real-time series data collection and analysis. The application of this telemetry system to surface tiltmeter surveys provides significant cost savings for testing and analysis of deep, large-scale horizontal anisotropic permeability and heterogeneity determinations.The determination of horizontal anisotropic properties requires one pumping well and eight to 10 tiltmeter monitoring stations. The validity of the depth of the test may reach 4,000 feet below land surface. With the addition of one partially penetrating observation well, the entire three-dimensional anisotropic permeability can be determined. With the addition of a fully penetrating well, the storage coefficient can be determined as well as leakage property (including vertical permeability of the confining layers). An example test case was analyzed for horizontal anisotropic permeability with remarkable success despite relatively unfavorable detection conditions.A thorough understanding of the geology overlying the aquifer system must be made in order to assess the applicability of the surface tiltmeter survey to large-scale horizontal anisotropic permeability determinations.

Notizen: This paper describes a new system for ground water monitoring, “the BAT System,” which includes the following functions: (a) sampling of ground water in most types of soils, (b) measurement of pore water pressure, and (c) in situ measurement of hydraulic conductivity. The system can also be used for tracer tests. The system utilizes a permanently installed filter tip attached to a steel or PVC pipe. Installation is normally performed by pushing the tip down to the desired depth. The filter tip can also be buried beneath a landfill. The primary feature of the new system is that the filter tip contains a self-sealing quick coupling unit, which makes it possible to temporarily connect the filter tip to adapters for various functions, e.g. water sampling and for measurement of pore pressure and hydraulic conductivity. The new technique makes sampling of both pressurized water and gas possible. Samples are obtained directly in hermetically sealed, pre-sterilized sample cylinders. Sampling of ground water and measurement of pore pressure can be repeated over a long period of time with undiminished accuracy. This technique is also well-adapted for taking water samples from different strata in a soil profile, in both the saturated and unsaturated zones. Actual installations range from 0.5 to 60m depth.

Notizen: State-of-the-art analytical techniques are capable of detecting contamination In the part per billion (ppb) range or lower. At these levels, a truly representative ground water sample Is essential to precisely evaluate ground water quality. The design specifications of a ground water monitoring system are critical in ensuring the collection of representative samples, particularly throughout the long-term monitoring period.The potential interfaces from commonly used synthetic well casings require a thorough assessment of site, hydrogeology and the geochemical properties of ground water. Once designed, the monitoring system must be installed following guidelines that ensure adequate seals to prevent contaminant migration during the installation process or at some time in the future. Additionally, maintaining the system so the wells are in hydraulic connection with the monitored zone as well as periodically Inspecting the physical integrity of the system can prolong the usefulness of the wells for ground water quality. When ground water quality data become suspect due to potential interferences from existing monitoring wells, an appropriate abandonment technique must be employed to adequately remove or destroy the well while completely sealing the borehole.The results of an inspection of a monitoring system comprised of six 4-inch diameter PVC monitoring wells at a hazardous well facility Indicated that the wells were improperly installed and in some cases provided a pathway for contamination. Subsequent down hole television inspections confirmed inaccuracies between construction logs and the existing system as well as identified defects in casing materials. An abandonment program was designed which destroyed the well casings in place while simultaneously providing a competent seal of the re-drilled borehole.

Notizen: Transmissivity can be estimated by several well documented methods employing data from rising water level slug tests in wells. A very simple and relatively inexpensive system can be constructed to lower the water level in a well. Compressed air is injected through a sealed device called a well head manifold, which screws onto the casing top and contains an air pressure gauge, an air entry valve, a quick release valve and a multi-channel water level indicator or a pressure transducer. Either of the latter is lowered into the well prior to pressurization.Compressed air is injected into the casing at a low rate through the manifold, depressing the water level a desired amount. After stabilization, the quick release valve is opened and the air pressure inside the casing is reduced to atmospheric pressure instantaneously; the water level then starts to rise. Successive elevations of the rising water level are determined with the indicator or transducer and their elapsed times from valve opening are recorded. Plots of water level recovery vs. time can then be used to estimate transmissivity by the published methods of Cooper, Bredehoeft and Papadopulos (1967), Ferris and Knowles (1954) and Hvorslev(1951).All of the items used for construction, with the exception of the quick release valve, can be bought off the shelf. The valve can be easily constructed in a machine shop. The total cost of the device, exclusive of the transducer, should be less than $500.

Notizen: Ground water flow in karst terranes generally occurs in the solution channels of carbonate aquifers. A hydrogeologist may utilize borehole geophysical methods to identify these solution channels in aquifers. Two specific methods that are applicable in karst terrains are:1. Natural gamma ray logging2. Borehole caliper logging.Gamma ray logging can detect the presence of inter-bedded strata in the main limestone unit, such as shale, which emit high levels of gamma radiation. Gamma ray logging can also detect clay deposits in solution channels that may act to restrict the flow of ground water. The areal extent of these rock strata or clay-filled solution channels can be determined when gamma ray logs are conducted at several borehole locations across the site of investigation.Borehole caliper logging can be employed to determine the presences of solution channels within the aquifer when penetrated by a borehole. In addition, since shale layers and clay filling are less resistant than the surrounding limestone, the caliper log may detect both the presence and the thickness of shale or clay layers in the aquifer.Gamma ray logs can be used in conjunction with caliper logs to provide data on the stratigraphic location and thickness of solution channels and clay and shale layers within a limestone aquifer. This information is valuable to the hydrogeologist performing investigations at sites located in limestone terranes because ground water flow preferentially occurs along solution channels.

Notizen: Column leaching experiments show that fly ash Interlayered with sulfide-rich tailings can reduce the vertical permeability of tailings by at least three orders of magnitude. Chemical reactions between the fluid, alkaline fly ash from Western coal and pyritic tailings result in a one to three order of magnitude reduction in the dissolved metals content of the effluent solution. Metal precipitation, which produces the dissolved metals reduction, is a significant element in the permeability reduction. The combined factors reduce the metals flux from the tailings by four to six orders of magnitude. We believe that tailings ponds with fly ash layers as amendments can greatiy reduce ground water contamination from pyritic tailings. In addition, concentrated application of fly ash layers near the end of mining should act to restrict infiltration and access of oxygen, thereby enhancing reclamation. Similar results maybe obtainable using other amendments with lower base capacity (lime, crushed limestone, trona).

Notizen: This article describes a computer automated, hydrologic analysis system designed to allow the collection of high quality, long-term pumping test data. The instrument solves two of the major problems encountered in the field during aquifer tests: insufficient data, particularly during the early part of a test when drawdown is rapid; and high labor costs associated with long-term monitoring.To illustrate the system's application, results are presented from the test of a highly transmissive aquifer. The aquifer's drawdown response was rapid; thus the time-drawdown curve was essentially flat after the first two minutes of the test, and correspondingly rapid data acquisition was essential for a unique solution of the aquifer's three-dimensional hydraulic conductivities.

Notizen: Traditional monitoring methods using chemical analysis of ground water samples to detect pollutant migration are being superseded or used in conjunction with innovative approaches. A need to detect pollutants before they reach the water table has drawn interest to vadose (unsaturated) zone monitoring and brought together hydrogeologists, soil scientists and agricultural engineers who have been working on this subject for years.Recent studies have identified over 50 different types of vadose zone monitoring devices and methods that have optimum utility in varying hydrogeologic settings. In general, measurements made in the vadose zone are trying to define storage, transmission of liquid waste in terms of flux and velocity, and pollutant mobility.Criteria for the selection of alternative vadose zone monitoring methods are important for the development of site-specific systems. These criteria include: type of site; applicability to new, active, and abandoned sites; power requirements; depth limitations; multiple use capability; type of data collection system; reliability and life expectancy; degree of operational complexity; direct versus indirect methods; applicability to alternate media; effect on flow regime; and effect of hazardous waste on sampling or measurements. Application of the selection criteria is discussed in Everett et al. (1982a).

Notizen: In recent years we have seen major advances in the variety and quality of ground water sampling instrumentation, in almost every case involving increases in sensitivity of one or more orders of magnitude. Software number-crunching ability brings us the capability of running sophisticated mathematical and statistical programs, while modern analytical chemistry routinely makes determinations of metals, organics and radioactive elements accurate in the parts per billion range.The construction of sample points rarely supports these levels of precision. The well is the basic sampling machine for the ground water industry and its ability to produce a truly representative sample underpins all data and conclusions. Regardless of the type of instrumentation employed, a sample point that cannot be shown to be truly representative and that fails to provide a series of reliable samples over the long term–let us say 25 years minimum–is a negative investment.In the authors’professional sampling work, it has been observed that, wherever it is possible to improve the quality of the ground water sample point, a reduction in the measured level of pollutant elements in the sample is found and the confidence level improves. Volatile organic values are the sole exception to this observed reduction in concentration, the reason being that sample point and method improvements capture the fully representative water sample, thus reducing volatile losses.It is not possible to address all hydrogeologic environments and sampling methods in this review. Instead, features were selected that had been found to be important in commercial, high-precision, water quality sampling in Western U.S. environments. In this area, water movement is slow and little or no exchange of water occurs between wells and the surrounding aquifer without artificial stimulation. Water quality stabilization requires multiple casing volume evacuations in wells ranging to 1,000 feet deep. High-volume pumping or mechanized bailing is an economic requirement. Dedicated installations cannot supply the volume of water required for comprehensive analytical programs.It is the nature of these sources, as well as practical recommendations for corrective action, that will be addressed in this article.Any attempted improvement in utilization of data by mathematical processing or statistical treatment will be inadequate because:〈list xml:id="l1" style="custom"〉• Samplings are infrequent and often accumulate at rates of only two or four sample suites per year. Seasonal variations may obscure evidence of passage of a low-intensity pollution front and some years may elapse before the true situation becomes apparent from statistical analyses. By such time, the problem pollutant may have escaped from the treatment area.• Powerful biases occur due to the failure of the sample point to eliminate false contributions to the sample from sources other than the natural environment or a pollution source, most frequently originating in casing materials and annular seal leakage.

Notizen: A cancer risk assessment methodology based upon the Armitage–Doll multistage model of cancer is applied to animal bioassay data. The method utilizes the exact time-dependent dose pattern used in a bioassay rather than some single measure of dose such as average dose rate or cumulative dose. The methodology can be used to predict risks from arbitrary exposure patterns including, for example, intermittent exposure and short-term exposure occurring at an arbitrary age. The methodology is illustrated by applying it to a National Cancer Institute bioassay of ethylene dibromide in which dose rates were modified several times during the course of the experiment.

Notizen: Several recent nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) have utilized broadened Reactor Safety Study (RSS) component failure rate population variability curves to compensate for such things as expert “overvaluation bias” in the estimates upon which the curves are based.A simple two-components of variation empirical Bayes model is proposed for use in estimating the between-expert variability curve in the presence of such biases. Under certain conditions this curve is a population variability curve. Comparisons are made with the existing method.The popular procedure appears to be generally much more conservative than the empirical Bayes method in removing such biases. In one case the broadened curve based on the popular method is more than two orders of magnitude broader than the empirical Bayes curve. In another case it is found that the maximum justifiable degree of broadening of the RSS curve is to increase α from 5% to 12%, which is significantly less than the 20% value recommended in the popular approach.

Notizen: A study of driver behavior before and after a mandatory seat belt use law in Newfoundland found that the benefits of such legislation are not reduced by riskier driving, as has been suggested by some theorists. On average, belt use in Newfoundland increased from 16% of drivers before the law to 77% after the law. At the same time, the quality of driving changed very little when compared to control groups of Nova Scotia drivers, who were not subject to the law and whose belt use rates did not change. In only one situation did Newfoundland drivers differ from the control group in Nova Scotia: after the belt law, drivers in Newfoundland became relatively more cautious (slower) in their speeds on four-lane expressways. These data confirm the results of earlier less controlled studies that also found no changes in driving behavior following nonvoluntary changes in occupant protection. Since the “risk-compensation” hypothesis predicts such changes, it seems to have no merit in explaining changes in fatalities and injuries after occupant protection legislation.

Notizen: The benefits and costs of automobile safety policies are compared using a methodology which explicitly quantifies the uncertainties. The policies addressed include both voluntary and compulsory manual belt usage, nondetachable passive (automatic) seat belts, and air bags. Estimates of the effectiveness and usage rates of these alternatives were obtained in the form of subjective probability distributions from eight experts. Their opinions were combined using equal weighting. The direct economic costs of the technologies were also estimated probabilistically. The number of lives saved and the net benefits of the policies were calculated probabilistically for a range of values of lifesaving. Probabilistic computations and sensitivity analysis were performed by the Demos modelling system using Monte Carlo simulation. The results are highly uncertain and quite sensitive to the value of lifesaving. Nevertheless, they imply that repeal of the passive-restraint standard is defensible according to the net-benefit criterion only if a relatively low value is assigned to lifesaving. The degree of uncertainty emphasizes the potential value of demonstration programs to obtain better information.

Notizen: This paper examines taxonomies for classifying risks and conflicts about risky technologies. First, we describe six levels of conflict that represent various “ shades of gray” between purely factual and purely value laden conflicts in technology disputes. Subsequently, we survey several recent taxonomies of risks and hazards that were at least partly intended to clarify the nature of the public conflicts about technologies and their risks. After pointing out that non-risk features frequently shape technology debates, we develop a taxonomy of the disputes themselves, based on a collection of 162 cases. Our taxonomy of technological controversies is related to the recent risk taxonomies and to the different levels of conflict. It turns out that the different technological disputes create quite different levels of conflict ranging from mainly factual (consumer products, drugs) to extremely value laden (nuclear power, genetic engineering). Depending on the type of controversy and level of conflict we suggest alternative conflict management strategies.

Notizen: Scientists disagree in their risk analyses because they use intuitive judgments to generalize results from the laboratory to circumstances not yet studied. If this assertion is correct, techniques intended to reduce intuitive judgments and increase analytical cognition should reduce scientific dispute. The results of a test case involving allegedly high risk and sharp dispute among scientists are described.

Notizen: Four formally equivalent response modes were used to elicit laypeople's beliefs regarding the lethality of various potential causes of death. Results showed that respondents had an articulated core of beliefs about lethality that yielded similar orderings of maladies by lethality regardless of the response mode used. Moreover, this subjective ordering was fairly similar to that revealed by public health statistics. However, the absolute estimates of lethality produced by the different response modes varied enormously. Depending upon the mode used, respondents were seen to greatly overestimate or greatly underestimate lethality. The implications of these discrepancies for public education and risk analysis are explored.

Notizen: The differences between probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and safety analysis (SA) are discussed, and it is shown that PRA is more suitable than SA for determining the acceptability of a technology. Since a PRA by the fault tree-event tree analysis method used for reactor safety studies does not seem to be practical for buried waste, an alternative approach is suggested using geochemical analogs. This method is illustrated for the cases of high-level and low-level radioactive waste and for chemical carcinogens released in coal burning.

Notizen: Public opinion poll data have consistently shown that the proportion of respondents who are willing to have a nuclear power plant in their own community is smaller than the proportion who agree that more nuclear plants should be built in this country. Respondents’ judgments of the minimum safe distance from each of eight hazardous facilities confirmed that this finding results from perceived risk gradients that differ by facility (e.g., nuclear vs. natural gas power plants) and social group (e.g., chemical engineers vs. environmentalists) but are relatively stable over time. Ratings of the facilities on thirteen perceived risk dimensions were used to determine whether any of the dimensions could explain the distance data. Because the rank order of the facilities with respect to acceptable distance was very similar to the rank order on a number of the perceived risk dimensions, it is difficult to determine which of the latter is the critical determinant of acceptable distance if, indeed, there is only one. There were, however, a number of reversals of rank order that indicate that the respondents had a differentiated view of technological risk. Finally, data from this and other studies were interpreted as suggesting that perceived lack of any other form of personal control over risk exposure may be an important factor in stimulating public opposition to the siting of hazardous facilities.

Notizen: This paper examines how LP/HC (low-probability/high-consequence) risk analysis is used in planning for locally unwanted land uses, or LULUs. LULUs are development projects that are predictably objectionable to many of their neighbors. Examples are nuclear power plants, hazardous waste facilities, refineries, and airports. The paper begins by elaborating the idea of LULUs, focussing on those whose planning typically requires or invokes some form of LP/HC risk analysis. It then discusses how land planning and planners actually use the LP/HC approach to deal with LULUs. It argues that in practice land-use planners and their associates employ a concept of risk different from that of economists, scientists, and engineers and more like that of political decision-makers and the public at large. It concludes with a political interpretation that offers some suggestions for productively reducing this divergence in the treatment of LULUs that pose LP/HC risks.

Notizen: The rapid aging of the U.S. population, increases in the absolute prevalence of chronic diseases, and the associated rise in the proportion of the GNP expended on medical care all indicate the need for methods to accurately forecast future health care expenditures for specific chronic diseases. Additionally, if these methods are biomedically realistic, they can be used to evaluate the economic implications of specific prevention strategies designed to reduce chronic disease incidence, prevalence, and mortality. Projection strategies that are not biomedically realistic, such as models that assume that risks for demographic subgroups do not change over time (e.g., “static component” models), though possibly accurate over the short run, are not suitable for assessing the long term effects of specific proposed health policy interventions which are designed to alter risks.In this paper we present a strategy for forecasting health care costs which is based on a model that represents the natural history of a chronic disease in terms of a preclinical state, a clinical state, case fatality rates, cures, and the implications of exogenous medical factors. Using this model we project that the treatment costs associated with respiratory cancer in the white male population of the U.S. may undergo a two-thirds increase in real dollars over the period 1977 to 2000. About one-half of this increase is due to a demographic shift to an older population structure, with the remainder due to higher respiratory cancer incidence rates in younger cohorts. Alteration of certain parameters of the model to simulate various interventions suggests that about three-quarters of the cost of this disease could be eliminated, though realization of any significant part of this savings would require a lengthy phase-in period.

Notizen: This methodology begins by quantifying the fragility of all key components and structures in the plant. By means of the logic encoded in the plant event trees and fault trees, the component fragilities are combined to form fragilities for the occurrence of plant damage states or release categories. Combining these, in turn, with the seismicity curves yields the frequencies of those states or releases. Uncertainty is explicitly included at each step of the process.

Notizen: A classical decision problem is considered where a decision maker is to choose one of a number of actions each offering different consequences. The outcome from a choice of action is uncertain because it depends on the existing state of Nature. Also, the outcome, once an action and state of Nature are specified, may be a vector or a random vector. The decision maker employs both Bayesian methods and fuzzy set techniques to handle the uncertainties. The decision maker is also allowed to use multiple, possibly conflicting, goals in order to determine his best strategy. The Bayesian method produces a set of undominated strategies to choose from, whereas the fuzzy set technique usually produces a unique optimal strategy.

Notizen: Scientists have long used conventional toxicological methods to establish “safe levels of exposure” for chemicals presumed to have threshold health effects or doses below which significant effects are unlikely to occur. These same methods cannot be used to establish safe levels of exposure for non-threshold pollutants, such as carcinogens. Therefore, Federal regulatory agencies in the United States are using risk assessment methods to provide information for public health policy decisions concerning increases in risk associated with increases in exposure to carcinogenic and other non-threshold pollutants. Acceptable exposure/risk levels are decided by policymakers who consider descriptions and estimates of risks together with social and economic benefits from the uses of the chemical. This paper focuses on the development of quantitative risk assessment approaches by Federal regulatory agencies in the United States, and identifies the mathematical models currently being used for risk extrapolation, including their inherent uncertainties. The uncertainties and limitations of these methods have led some scientists to question the utility of quantitative risk extrapolation. The experience of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), as summarized in this paper, can provide a realistic basis for evaluating the pros and cons. Finally, shortcomings in current risk assessment methods and their use in policy decisions are explored, and areas for possible improvement, given current scientific knowledge, are identified.

Notizen: Risk acceptance criteria in the form of limit lines are investigated in the context of prospect theory. This theory departs from utility theory in several respects, an important one being the use of weights other than probabilities in the evaluation of the expected impact of uncertain outcomes. Hypothetical functions reflecting certain attitudes toward consequences and rare events are developed and combined to produce several limit lines.

Notizen: In this paper, we argue that risk in a new situation can be calculated by comparison with the most closely analogous previous situation that we can find. In many cases, such as automobile accidents, we argue that this year is analogous to preceding years. With toxic chemicals the analogy is less direct—we compare with other toxic chemicals or with chemicals shown to be toxic in other species. Because the unreliability or uncertainty of the analogy can be high, it is necessary to use less sensitive, but more reliable, methods of estimating risk to prevent continued use of a hazardous material, and subsequent tragedy if the hazard should turn out to be unexpectedly large. This suggests more robust techniques to reduce the regret, or societal cost of being wrong, because increased sensitivity is sometimes attained at the expense of sampling error.

Notizen: Analysis of energy-system impacts requires quantifications of short- and long-term local, regional, and global modifications. This paper describes and illustrates an approach for assessing long-term health risks due to dispersion of naturally occurring radionuclide series and chemical toxins by normal and altered landscape-chemical cycles. Health hazards are expressed as dose factors which convert environmental concentrations into a corresponding dose field (organ doses in rad for radionuclides; daily intake for toxic elements). The dose field is translated into a population health risk. The external environment is modelled by considering the manner in which elements are distributed and mobilized within the earth system. The landscape prism is presented as a tool for visualizing and mapping toxic material cycles near the crustal surface. An approach is provided for dividing the landscape into a set of compartments consistent with patterns of element circulation observed in the global environment. We investigate the response of regional landscapes to increases of 238U, 226Ra, arsenic and lead in soil and groundwater. It is found that each decay series or element imposes a hazard by its behavior in the total environment that cannot be quantified by a simple measure of toxicity.

Notizen: Many risks have the property that large numbers of people are exposed and have little or no individual control over the risks they face. Dams, nuclear power plants, and recombinant DNA research have proven controversial not simply because there is vast uncertainty about the true level of risk associated with each, but because a fundamental issue is that in each case social risks can be lessened by spending more on safety: dams can be designed to withstand larger earthquakes, nuclear plants can have additional safety equipment, and DNA research could be done in yet more carefully isolated laboratories. Since each person will have preferences regarding the proper trade-off between increased cost and increased safety, there is little possibility of consensus. More importantly, we show that a voting process for expressing individual preferences can be manipulated and is seriously flawed in the sense that it does not lead to an “efficient” outcome. In addition, we show that virtually all people are unhappy with the safety decision, in the sense that each would prefer either a safer or a cheaper outcome. Thus, making safety decisions that affect a large group of people who will not be able to control the outcome is even more difficult than has been appreciated. We suggest some ways of handling some of the difficulties.

Notizen: An estimation of the human lung cancer “unit risk” from diesel engine particulate emissions has been made using a comparative potency approach. This approach involves evaluating the tumorigenic and mutagenic potencies of the particulates from four diesel and one gasoline engine in relation to other combustion and pyrolysis products (coke oven, roofing tar, and cigarette smoke) that cause lung cancer in humans. The unit cancer risk is predicated on the linear nonthreshold extrapolation model and is the individual lifetime excess lung cancer risk from continuous exposure to 1 μg carcinogen per m3 inhaled air. The human lung cancer unit risks obtained from the epidemiologic data for coke oven workers, roofing tar applicators, and cigarette smokers were, respectively, 9.3 × 10−4, 3.6 × 10−4, and 2.2 × 10−6 per μg particulate organics per m3 air. The comparative potencies of these three materials and the diesel and gasoline engine exhaust particulates (as organic extracts) were evaluated by in vivo tumorigenicity bioassays involving skin initiation and skin carcinogenicity in SENCAR mice and by the in vitro bioassays that proved suitable for this analysis: Ames Salmonella microsome bioassay, L5178Y mouse lymphoma cell mutagenesis bioassay, and sister chromatid exchange bioassay in Chinese hamster ovary cells. The relative potencies of the coke oven, roofing tar, and cigarette smoke emissions, as determined by the mouse skin initiation assay, were within a factor of 2 of those determined using the epidemiologic data. The relative potencies, from the in vitro bioassays as compared to the human data, were similar for coke oven and roofing tar, but for the cigarette smoke condensate the in vitro tests predicted a higher relative potency. The mouse skin initiation bioassay was used to determine the unit lung cancer risk for the most potent of the diesel emissions. Based on comparisons with coke oven, roofing tar, and cigarette smoke, the unit cancer risk averaged 4.4 × 10−4. The unit lung cancer risks for the other, less potent motor-vehicle emissions were determined from their comparative potencies relative to the most potent diesel using three in vitro bioassays. There was a high correlation between the in vitro and in vivo bioassays in their responses to the engine exhaust particulate extracts. The unit lung cancer risk per μg particulates per m3 for the automotive diesel and gasoline exhaust particulates ranged from 0.20 × 10−4 to 0.60 × 10−4; that for the heavy-duty diesel engine was 0.02 × 10−4. These unit risks provide the basis for a future assessment of human lung cancer risks when combined with human population exposure to automotive emissions.

Notizen: In this paper we extend the work reported in prior studies. The conclusion drawn from the aggregate of those studies was that the limitation on liability imposed by the Price–Anderson Act for a catastrophic accident at a nuclear power plant ($560 million) is comparable to de facto limitations on recovery following catastrophic events in many other industries. The analysis in those reports was at a high level of abstraction, comparing almost exclusively the potential loss from high consequence accidents with the current assets of major firms in relevant industries. We found that potential loss exceeded assets.

Notizen: The U.S. Office of Science and Technology Policy describes toxic substance regulation as composed of two stages. Stage I (facts) uses empirical data and scientific judgment to characterize human exposure and risk. Stage II (values) uses social and political judgment to decide regulatory action based on significance of the risk, benefits of the agent, and costs of its control. This paper argues that such a view represents an unrealistic and unattainable goal. We present examples showing how values enter virtually every part of risk analysis, and we review work on the vagaries in human judgment concerning both facts and values. These issues indicate that U.S. regulatory policy needs reconsideration.

Notizen: In this paper we propose a framework for conducting a decision analysis for a societal problem such as earthquake safety. The application deals with the formulation and evaluation of alternative policies for the seismic safety problem faced by the city of Los Angeles with regard to its old masonry buildings. A social decision analysis compares the costs and benefits of the alternative policies from the viewpoints of the impacted constituents. The emphasis is on identifying acceptable policy that considers the interests of the impacted constituents and provides incentives for their cooperation. Alternatives ranging from strict regulation to free market are examined. In order to evaluate the trade-offs between additional cost and savings in lives, a direct willingness-to-pay and an economic approach, based on property value differential, are used. Recommendations range from strict regulation for the residential and critical buildings (schools, hospitals, fire stations, etc.) to simply informing the occupants (in the case of commercial and industrial buildings) of the risks involved.

Notizen: Measures to tighten homes to conserve energy, as are being encouraged and subsidized by federal and state governments, may reduce air infiltration by 20% or more. Standard prudent risk-assessment methodologies predict that, due to increased levels of indoor radon caused by this reduction in ventilation, the added lifetime lung cancer risk to members of the public is of order 200/million people exposed. In situations where the radon source term is unusually high, or extreme reductions in ventilation are made, the added risk can be more than an order of magnitude greater. While these imputed risks are far outside the range that is normally tolerated, no systematic efforts are in progress to mitigate or limit the risk in any way. Furthermore, efforts to determine better the variations in radon source term and the health effects of indoor radon are being deemphasized. The technical background is presented in some detail, and implications with regard to management of risks to the public are discussed.

Notizen: Book Reviewed in this article:Risk Analysis of Six Potentially Hazardous Industrial Objects in the Rijnmond Area, A Pilot Study

Notizen: Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a relatively new tool in the nuclear industry. The Reactor Safety Study started the present trend of conducting PRAs for nuclear power plants when it was published in 1975. Now, nine years later, those in the industry currently using PRA techniques are frequently asked the same question: Why should the nuclear utility industry, with so many accepted analytical tools already available, invest the time and manpower to develop a new technique with so many uncertainties?

Notizen: The historical basis and more recent activities and products of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) in the Atomic Energy Commission and Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) are reviewed. Current NRC program activities and objectives are described. The author's opinions on the best uses of PRA are presented.

Notizen: There are many uncertainties in a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). We identify the different types of uncertainties and describe their implications. We then summarize the uncertainty analyses which have performed in current PRAs and characterize results which have been obtained. We draw conclusions regarding interpretations of uncertainties, areas having largest uncertainties, and needs which exist in uncertainty analysis. We finally characterize the robustness of various utilizations of PRA results.

Notizen: Data on the effects of human exposure to carcinogens are limited, so that estimation of the risks of carcinogens must be obtained indirectly. Current risk estimates are generally based on lifetime animal bioassays which are expensive and which take more than two years to complete. We here show how data on acute toxicity can be used to make a preliminary estimate of carcinogenic risk and give an idea of the uncertainty in that risk estimate. The estimates obtained are biased upwards, and so are useful for setting interim standards and determining whether further study is worthwhile. A general scheme which incorporates the use of such estimates is outlined, and it is shown by example how adoption of the procedures suggested could have prevented regulatory hiatus in the past.

Notizen: During the period from 1977 to 1984, Pickard, Lowe and Garrick, Inc., had the lead in preparing several full scope probabilistic risk assessments for electric utilities. Five of those studies are discussed from the point of view of advancements and lessons learned. The objective and trend of these studies is toward utilization of the risk models by the plant owners as risk management tools. Advancements that have been made are in presentation and documentation of the PRAs, generation of more understandable plant level information, and improvements in methodology to facilitate technology transfer. Specific areas of advancement are in the treatment of such issues as dependent failures, human interaction, and the uncertainty in the source term. Lessons learned cover a wide spectrum and include the importance of plant specific models for meaningful risk management, the role of external events in risk, the sensitivity of contributors to choice of risk index, and the very important finding that the public risk is extremely small. The future direction of PRA is to establish less dependence on experts for in-plant application. Computerizing the PRAs such that they can be accessed on line and interactively is the key.

Notizen: A synopsis is given of research projects on probabilistic systems analysis conducted by the Risk Assessment Program of the Electric Power Research Institute. A brief outline of the value of systems analysis both within PRA and as a stand-alone discipline is used to show how the objectives of the research program are related to industry needs. Research projects and their deliverables are discussed in relation to three objectives: (1) to improve the credibility of the methods and results, (2) to provide computer tools and technology transfer, and (3) to develop use of the methods to improve safety and availability in operation. Recent achievements and future plans are briefly described and an up to date list of relevant EPRI publications is provided.

Notizen: Expert judgments expressed as subjective probability distributions provide an appropriate means of incorporating technical uncertainty in some quantitative policy studies. Judgments and distributions obtained from several experts allow one to explore the extent to which the conclusions reached in such a study depend on which expert one talks to. For the case of sulfur air pollution from coal-fired power plants, estimates of sulfur mass balance as a function of plume flight time are shown to vary little across the range of opinions of leading atmospheric scientists while estimates of possible health impacts are shown to vary widely across the range of opinions of leading scientists in air pollution health effects.

Notizen: A uranium miner who smokes develops lung cancer: what is the probability that radiation, rather than tobacco, caused it? This paper briefly explains the principles and limits of probability models for which this question makes sense, and then shows how principles of risk accounting can be applied to obtain a solution to the general problem of attributing risk in the presence of joint, possibly interacting, causes. A procedure for calculating each factor's “share” in a jointly caused risk is proposed, and shown to be a generalization of the “probability of causation” concept. Problems of implementation and interpretation for the proposed attribution procedure are discussed, and illustrative error bounds are derived for a simple decision rule, in which probability of causation or attributable risk share calculations are made using aggregate data as a proxy for unknown individual data.

Notizen: A large number of PRA studies have been completed for specific plants at specific sites. From these studies, taken individually or collectively, many significant insights have evolved into items important to risk and safety. The content of this paper is primarily based on the material contained in the EPRI funded review of five PRA studies: Big Rock Point, Zion, Limerick, Grand Gulf, and Arkansas Nuclear One. The first three were the utility sponsored studies publicly available at the time of project initiation while the other two were deemed representative of the NRC's RSSMAP and IREP programs respectively. The results of PRA studies are usually expressed in terms of core melt frequencies, radionuclide release frequencies, and frequencies of occurrence of different reactor accident consequences (e.g., early and latent fatalities) depending on the level of PRA. These subjects are prominently addressed in this paper. One of the results of a PRA study is identification of a relatively small number of accident sequences that represent the dominant contributors to core melt. An analysis of the salient features of the dominant accident sequences from eleven PRA's yielded a characterization of accident sequence categories discussed at some length. Impact of external events is discussed very briefly. Next to an explicit quantification of public risk or core melt frequency, the identification of specific safety concerns and the evaluation of possible solutions to implement risk management are probably the best recognized and most widely used applications of PRA. Several illustrative examples are briefly discussed. Human interactions are extremely important contributors to safety and reliability of the plants. A review of PRA studies concluded that it was necessary to account for five types of human interactions; some of which may mitigate while others may exacerbate an accident sequence.