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  • 1
    Publikationsdatum: 2020-11-18
    Beschreibung: Heavy rainfall and flooding associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) are responsible for a large number of fatalities and economic damage worldwide. Despite their large socio-economic impacts, research into heavy rainfall and flooding associated with TCs has received limited attention to date, and still represents a major challenge. Our capability to adapt to future changesin heavy rainfall and flooding associated with TCs is inextricably linked to and informed by ourunderstanding of the sensitivity of TC rainfall to likely future forcing mechanisms. Here we use a set of idealized high-resolution atmospheric model experiments produced as part of the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group activity to examine TC response to idealized global-scale perturbations: the doubling of CO2, uniform 2K increases in global sea surface temperature(SST), and their combined impact. As a preliminary but key step, daily rainfall patterns ofcomposite TCs within climate model outputs are first compared and contrasted to the observational records. To assess similarities and differences across different regions in response to the warming scenarios, analyses are performed at the global and hemispheric scales and in six global TC ocean basins. The results indicate a reduction in TC daily precipitation rates in the doubling CO2 scenario (on the order of 5% globally), and an increase in TC rainfall rates associated with a uniform increase of 2K in SST (both alone and in combination with CO2 doubling; on the order of 10-20% globally).
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 4622–4641
    Beschreibung: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: open
    Schlagwort(e): tropical cyclones ; precipitation ; rainfall ; extreme events ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
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  • 2
    Publikationsdatum: 2021-06-16
    Beschreibung: While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. CLIVAR (CLImate VARiability and predictability of the ocean-atmosphere system). This work, combined with results from other model simulations, has strengthened relationships between tropical cyclone formation rates and climate variables such as mid-tropospheric vertical velocity, with decreased climatological vertical velocities leading to decreased tropical cyclone formation. Systematic differences are shown between experiments in which only sea surface temperature is increased versus experiments where only atmospheric carbon dioxide is increased, with the carbon dioxide experiments more likely to demonstrate the decrease in tropical cyclone numbers previously shown to be a common response of climate models in a warmer climate. Experiments where the two effects are combined also show decreases in numbers, but these tend to be less for models that demonstrate a strong tropical cyclone response to increased sea surface temperatures. Further experiments are proposed that may improve our understanding of the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation, including experiments with two-way interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere and variations in atmospheric aerosols.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 997–1017
    Beschreibung: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: restricted
    Schlagwort(e): tropical cyclones ; hurricanes ; climate change ; CLIVAR ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
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  • 3
    facet.materialart.
    Unbekannt
    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Physical Oceanography, American Meteorological Society, 44(8), pp. 2093-2106, ISSN: 0022-3670
    Publikationsdatum: 2019-07-16
    Beschreibung: The recently proposed Internal Wave Dissipation, Energy and Mixing (IDEMIX) model, describing the propagation and dissipation of internal gravity waves in the ocean, is extended. Compartments describing the energy contained in the internal tides and the near-inertial waves at low, vertical wavenumber are added to a compartment of the wave continuum at higher wavenumbers. Conservation equations for each compartment are derived based on integrated versions of the radiative transfer equation of weakly interacting waves. The compartments interact with each other by the scattering of tidal energy to the wave continuum by triad wave– wave interactions, which are strongly enhanced equatorward of 288 due to parametric subharmonic instability of the tide and by scattering to the continuum of both tidal and near-inertial wave energy over rough topography and at continental margins. Global numerical simulations of the resulting model using observed stratification, forcing functions, and bottom topography yield good agreement with available observations.
    Repository-Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Materialart: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 4
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    Unbekannt
    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 27(10), pp. 3784-3801, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-05-15
    Beschreibung: Unlike the rapid sea ice losses reported in the Arctic, satellite observations show an overall increase in Antarctic sea ice concentration over recent decades. However, observations of decadal trends in Antarctic ice thickness, and hence ice volume, do not currently exist. In this study a model of the Southern Ocean and its sea ice, forced by atmospheric reanalyses, is used to assess 1992–2010 trends in ice thickness and volume. The model successfully reproduces observations of mean ice concentration, thickness, and drift, and decadal trends in ice concentration and drift, imparting some confidence in the hindcasted trends in ice thickness. The model suggests that overall Antarctic sea ice volume has increased by approximately 30 km3 yr−1 (0.4% yr−1) as an equal result of areal expansion (20 × 103 km2 yr−1 or 0.2% yr−1) and thickening (1.5 mm yr−1 or 0.2% yr−1). This ice volume increase is an order of magnitude smaller than the Arctic decrease, and about half the size of the increased freshwater supply from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Similarly to the observed ice concentration trends, the small overall increase in modeled ice volume is actually the residual of much larger opposing regional trends. Thickness changes near the ice edge follow observed concentration changes, with increasing concentration corresponding to increased thickness. Ice thickness increases are also found in the inner pack in the Amundsen and Weddell Seas, where the model suggests that observed ice-drift trends directed toward the coast have caused dynamical thickening in autumn and winter. Modeled changes are predominantly dynamic in origin in the Pacific sector and thermodynamic elsewhere.
    Repository-Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Materialart: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 5
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-04-04
    Beschreibung: Global-scale variations in the climate system over the last half of the twentieth century. including long-term increases in global-mean near-surface temperatures. are consistent with concurrent human-induced emissions of radiatively active gases and aerosols. However, such consistency does not preclude the possible influence of other forcing agents, including internal modes of climate variability or unaccounted for aerosol effects. To test whether other unknown forcing agents may have contributed to multidecadal increases in global-mean near-surface temperatures from 1950 to 2000. data pertaining to observed changes in global-scale sea surface temperatures and observed changes in radiatively active atmospheric constituents are incorporated into numerical global climate models. Results indicate that the radiative forcing needed to produce the observed long-term trends in sea surface temperatures-and global-mean near-surface temperatures-is provided predominantly by known changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. Further, results indicate that less than 10% of the long-term historical increase in global-mean near-surface temperatures over the last half of the twentieth century could have been the result of internal climate variability. In addition. they indicate that less than 25% of the total radiative forcing needed to produce the observed long-term trend in global-mean near-surface temperatures could have been provided by changes in net radiative forcing from unknown sources (either positive or negative). These results, which are derived from simple energy balance requirements. emphasize the important role humans have played in modifying the global climate over the last half of the twentieth century.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 7163-7172
    Beschreibung: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: restricted
    Schlagwort(e): climate forcing ; temperature increase ; AGCM ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
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  • 6
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-04-04
    Beschreibung: In this work the authors investigate possible changes in the intensity of rainfall events associated 28with tropical cyclones (TCs) under idealized forcing scenarios, including a uniformly warmer climate, with a special focus on landfalling storms. A new set of experiments designed within the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group allows disentangling the relative role of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide from that played by sea surface temperature (SST) in changing theamount of precipitation associated with TCs in a warmer world. Compared to the present day simulation, we found an increase in TC precipitation under the scenarios involving SST increases. On the other hand, in a CO2 doubling-only scenario, the changes in TC rainfall are small and we found that, on average, TC rainfall tends to decrease compared to the present day climate. The results of this study highlight the contribution of landfalling TCs to the projected increase in theprecipitation changes affecting the tropical coastal regions.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 4642–4654
    Beschreibung: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: open
    Schlagwort(e): tropical cyclones ; precipitation ; extreme events ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
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  • 7
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-04-04
    Beschreibung: In this work the authors investigate possible changes in the distribution of heavy precipitation events under a warmer climate, using the results of a set of 20 climate models taking part in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 effort (CMIP5). Future changes are evaluated as the difference between the last four decades of the 21st and the 20th Century assuming the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5 scenario. As a measure of the width of the right tail of the precipitation distribution, we use the difference between the 99th and the 90th percentiles. Despite a slight tendency to underestimate the observed heavy precipitation, the considered CMIP5 models well represent the observed patterns in terms of the ensemble average, during both summer and winter seasons for the 1997-2005 period. Future changes in average precipitation are consistentwith previous findings based on CMIP3 models. CMIP5 models show a projected increase for the end of the twenty-first century of the width of the right tail of the precipitation distribution, particularly pronounced over India, South East Asia, Indonesia and Central Africa during borealsummer, as well as over South America and southern Africa during boreal winter.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 7902–7911
    Beschreibung: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: open
    Schlagwort(e): precipitation ; extreme events ; climate change ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
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  • 8
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    Unbekannt
    American Meteorological Society
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-04-04
    Beschreibung: We study the quasi-geostrophic merging dynamics of axisymmetric baroclinic vortices to understand how baroclinicity affects merging rates and the development of the nonlinear cascade of enstrophy. The initial vortices are taken to simulate closely the horizontal' and vertical structure of Gulf Stream rings. A quasigeostrophic model is set with a horizontal resolution of 9 km and 6 vertical levels to resolve the mean stratification of the Gulf Stream region. The results show that the baroclinic merging is slower than the purely barotropic process, The merging is shown to occur in two phases: the tirst, which produces clove-shaped vortices and diffusive mixing of vorticity contours; and the second, which consists of the sliding of the remaining vorticity cores with a second diffusive mixing of the intemal vorticity field. Comparison among Nof, Cushman-Roisin, Polvani et al, and Dewar and Killworth merging events indicates a substantial agreement in the kinematics of the DYOCRSS. Parameter sensitivity experiments show that the decrease of the baroclinicity parameter of the system, Γ^2, [defined as Γ^2 = (D^2 fo^2)/ (No^2 H^2)], increases the speed of merging while its increase slows down the merging. However, the halting elfect of baroclinicity (large Γ^2 or small Rossby radii of deformation) reaches a saturation level where the merging becomes insensitive to larger F2 values. Furthermore, we show that a regime of small Γ^2 exists at which the merged baroclinic vortex is unstable (metastable) and breaks again into two new vortices, Thus, in the baroelinic case the range of Γ^2 detemines the stability of the merged vortex. We analyze these results by local energy and vorticity balances, showing that the horizontal divergence of pressure work term [∇ *(pv)] and the relative-vorticity advection term (v * ∇ (∇ ^2 φ) trigger the merging during the first phase. Due to this horizontal redistribution process, a net kinetic to gravitational energy conversion occurs via buoyancy work in the region external to the cores of the vortices. The second phase of merging is dominated by a direct baroclinic conversion of available gravitational energy into kinetic energy, which in tum triggers a horizontal energy redistribution producing the final fusion of the vortex centers. This energy and vorticity analysis supports the hypothesis that merging is an internal mixing process triggered by a horizontal redistribution of kinetic energy.
    Beschreibung: The work has been financed by a grant from the Progetto Finalizzato "Calcolo Parallelo"
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 1618/1637
    Beschreibung: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: restricted
    Schlagwort(e): Ocean modeling ; Vortex dynamics ; Baroclinicity ; Eddies ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.01. Analytical and numerical modeling
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 9
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-04-04
    Beschreibung: Future tropical cyclone activity is a topic of great scientific and societal interest. In the absence of a climate theory of tropical cyclogenesis, general circulation models are the primary tool available for investigating the issue. However, the identification of tropical cyclones in model data at moderate resolution is complex, and numerous schemes have been developed for their detection. We here examine the influence of different tracking schemes on detected tropical cyclone activity and responses in the Hurricane Working Group experiments. These are idealized atmospheric general circulation model experiments aimed at determining and distinguishing the effects of increased sea-surface temperature and other increased CO2 effects on tropical cyclone activity. We apply two tracking schemes to these data and also analyze the tracks provided by each modelling group. Our results indicate moderate agreement between the different tracking methods, with some models and experiments showing better agreement across schemes than others. When comparing responses between experiments, we find that much of the disagreement between schemes is due to differences in duration, wind speed, and formation-latitude thresholds. After homogenisation in these thresholds, agreement between different tracking methods is improved. However, much disagreement remains, accountable for by more fundamental differences between the tracking schemes. Our results indicate that sensitivity testing and selection of objective thresholds are the key factors in obtaining meaningful, reproducible results when tracking tropical cyclones in climate model data at these resolutions, but that more fundamental differences between tracking methods can also have a significant impact on the responses in activity detected.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 9197–9213
    Beschreibung: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: restricted
    Schlagwort(e): tropical cyclones ; tracking schemes ; climate change ; hurricanes ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 10
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    Unbekannt
    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC321st Symposium on Boundary Layers and Turbulence, Leeds, UK, 2014-06-09-2014-06-13Leeds, American Meteorological Society
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-10-17
    Beschreibung: Mesoscale transport of energy and matter between the surface and the atmosphere often occurs in form of non-propagating organized structures or thermally-induced circulations. Spatially resolving measurements are required to capture such fluxes and, thus far, airborne measurements are the only means to accomplish this. In contrast, tower-based eddy-covariance measurements are conducted at one point and therefore inherently cannot capture the total atmospheric exchange, which is recognized as a major contributor to energy balance closure problems. As long as there are mean vertical thermal and humidity gradients in the Atmospheric Boundary-Layer, with higher potential temperatures and specific humidities in the surface layer as compared with the outer-layer, such organized structures will lead to a systematic underestimation of turbulent energy fluxes from eddy-towers. Firstly, we address the question of how deep such meso-γ scale motions penetrate into the surface layer. We present indications from Doppler-LiDAR, airborne and tower-based measurements, which show that mesoscale motion can indeed be found quite close to the surface, but the mesoscale effect vanishes when measurements are actually conducted within the roughness sublayer and when shear stress is sufficiently large to break up mesoscale contributions into smaller eddies. This will be illustrated by observations from Germany and Israel. Secondly, we investigate whether the common practice of adjusting the measured eddy tower fluxes for energy balance closure by conserving the Bowen ratio is supported by experimental evidence. Mesoscale and small-scale turbulent fluxes from four different flight campaigns are presented, which were carried out on board of the Canadian Twin Otter (National Research Council of Canada) and the German Polar 5 (Alfred-Wegener Institute) research aircraft over different landscapes in Canada and Alaska.
    Repository-Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Materialart: Conference , notRev
    Format: application/pdf
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