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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2017-03-13
    Description: Although rising global sea levels will affect the shape of coastlines over the coming decades1, 2, the most severe and catastrophic shoreline changes occur as a consequence of local and regional-scale processes. Changes in sediment supply3 and deltaic subsidence4, 5, both natural or anthropogenic, and the occurrences of tropical cyclones4, 5 and tsunamis6 have been shown to be the leading controls on coastal erosion. Here, we use satellite images of South American mangrove-colonized mud banks collected over the past twenty years to reconstruct changes in the extent of the shoreline between the Amazon and Orinoco rivers. The observed timing of the redistribution of sediment and migration of the mud banks along the 1,500 km muddy coast suggests the dominant control of ocean forcing by the 18.6 year nodal tidal cycle7. Other factors affecting sea level such as global warming or El Niño and La Niña events show only secondary influences on the recorded changes. In the coming decade, the 18.6 year cycle will result in an increase of mean high water levels of 6 cm along the coast of French Guiana, which will lead to a 90 m shoreline retreat.
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  • 2
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    Nature Publishing Group
    In:  Nature, 447 . p. 383.
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: As the complex interplay of forces in the ocean responds to climate change, the dynamics of global ocean circulation are shifting.
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2017-06-09
    Description: The new aromatic polyketides genoketide A1, genoketide A2 and prechrysophanol glucuronide are biosynthetic intermediates of the octaketide chrysophanol. They were isolated from the alkaliphilic strain Streptomyces sp. AK 671 together with the new metabolite chrysophanol glucuronide. The structures of the compounds were elucidated by mass spectrometry and NMR methods. Genoketide A2 exhibited a slight and prechrysophanol glucuronide a more pronounced inhibition of the proliferation of L5178y lymphoma cells.
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: Predicting the evolution of climate over decadal timescales requires a quantitative understanding of the dynamics that govern the meridional overturning circulation (MOC)1. Comprehensive ocean measurement programmes aiming to monitor MOC variations have been established in the subtropical North Atlantic2, 3 (RAPID, at latitude 26.5° N, and MOVE, at latitude 16° N) and show strong variability on intraseasonal to interannual timescales. Observational evidence of longer-term changes in MOC transport remains scarce, owing to infrequent sampling of transoceanic sections over past decades4, 5. Inferences based on long-term sea surface temperature records, however, supported by model simulations, suggest a variability with an amplitude of plusminus1.5–3 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s-1) on decadal timescales in the subtropics6. Such variability has been attributed to variations of deep water formation in the sub-arctic Atlantic, particularly the renewal rate of Labrador Sea Water7. Here we present results from a model simulation that suggest an additional influence on decadal MOC variability having a Southern Hemisphere origin: dynamic signals originating in the Agulhas leakage region at the southern tip of Africa. These contribute a MOC signal in the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic that is of the same order of magnitude as the northern source. A complete rationalization of observed MOC changes therefore also requires consideration of signals arriving from the south.
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  • 5
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    Nature Publishing Group
    In:  Nature Geoscience, 1 (1). pp. 14-15.
    Publication Date: 2017-02-22
    Description: The relationship between carbon dioxide and climate over millions of years has been a source of controversy. Fossilized liverwort leaves can help illuminate both temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels from 200 to 60 million years ago.
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2017-02-23
    Description: Despite similar physical properties, the Northern and Southern Atlantic subtropical gyres have different biogeochemical regimes. The Northern subtropical gyre, which is subject to iron deposition from Saharan dust1, is depleted in the nutrient phosphate, possibly as a result of iron-enhanced nitrogen fixation2. Although phosphate depleted, rates of carbon fixation in the euphotic zone of the North Atlantic subtropical gyre are comparable to those of the South Atlantic subtropical gyre3, which is not phosphate limited. Here we use the activity of the phosphorus-specific enzyme alkaline phosphatase to show potentially enhanced utilization of dissolved organic phosphorus occurring over much of the North Atlantic subtropical gyre. We find that during the boreal spring up to 30% of primary production in the North Atlantic gyre is supported by dissolved organic phosphorus. Our diagnostics and composite map of the surface distribution of dissolved organic phosphorus in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean reveal shorter residence times in the North Atlantic gyre than the South Atlantic gyre. We interpret the asymmetry of dissolved organic phosphorus cycling in the two gyres as a consequence of enhanced nitrogen fixation in the North Atlantic Ocean4, which forces the system towards phosphorus limitation. We suggest that dissolved organic phosphorus utilization may contribute to primary production in other phosphorus-limited ocean settings as well.
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  • 7
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Climate, 20 (11). pp. 2558-2571.
    Publication Date: 2017-08-23
    Description: Shortly after the advent of the first imaging passive microwave sensor on board a research satellite an anomalous climate feature was observed within the Weddell Sea. During the years 1974–1976, a 250 × 103 km2 area within the seasonal sea ice cover was virtually free of winter sea ice. This feature, the Weddell Polynya, was created as sea ice formation was inhibited by ocean convection that injected relatively warm deep water into the surface layer. Though smaller, less persistent polynyas associated with topographically induced upwelling at Maud Rise frequently form in the area, there has not been a reoccurrence of the Weddell Polynya since 1976. Archived observations of the surface layer salinity within the Weddell gyre suggest that the Weddell Polynya may have been induced by a prolonged period of negative Southern Annular Mode (SAM). During negative SAM the Weddell Sea experiences colder and drier atmospheric conditions, making for a saltier surface layer with reduced pycnocline stability. This condition enables Maud Rise upwelling to trigger sustained deep-reaching convection associated with the polynya. Since the late 1970s SAM has been close to neutral or in a positive state, resulting in warmer, wetter conditions over the Weddell Sea, forestalling repeat of the Weddell Polynya. A contributing factor to the Weddell Polynya initiation may have been a La Niña condition, which is associated with increased winter sea ice formation in the polynya area. If the surface layer is made sufficiently salty due to a prolonged negative SAM period, perhaps aided by La Niña, then Maud Rise upwelling meets with positive feedback, triggering convection, and a winter persistent Weddell Polynya.
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2018-12-31
    Description: Recent observations show dramatic changes of the Arctic atmosphere–ice–ocean system. Here the authors demonstrate, through the analysis of a vast collection of previously unsynthesized observational data, that over the twentieth century the central Arctic Ocean became increasingly saltier with a rate of freshwater loss of 239 ± 270 km3 decade−1. In contrast, long-term (1920–2003) freshwater content (FWC) trends over the Siberian shelf show a general freshening tendency with a rate of 29 ± 50 km3 decade−1. These FWC trends are modulated by strong multidecadal variability with sustained and widespread patterns. Associated with this variability, the FWC record shows two periods in the 1920s–30s and in recent decades when the central Arctic Ocean was saltier, and two periods in the earlier century and in the 1940s–70s when it was fresher. The current analysis of potential causes for the recent central Arctic Ocean salinification suggests that the FWC anomalies generated on Arctic shelves (including anomalies resulting from river discharge inputs) and those caused by net atmospheric precipitation were too small to trigger long-term FWC variations in the central Arctic Ocean; to the contrary, they tend to moderate the observed long-term central-basin FWC changes. Variability of the intermediate Atlantic Water did not have apparent impact on changes of the upper–Arctic Ocean water masses. The authors’ estimates suggest that ice production and sustained draining of freshwater from the Arctic Ocean in response to winds are the key contributors to the salinification of the upper Arctic Ocean over recent decades. Strength of the export of Arctic ice and water controls the supply of Arctic freshwater to subpolar basins while the intensity of the Arctic Ocean FWC anomalies is of less importance. Observational data demonstrate striking coherent long-term variations of the key Arctic climate parameters and strong coupling of long-term changes in the Arctic–North Atlantic climate system. Finally, since the high-latitude freshwater plays a crucial role in establishing and regulating global thermohaline circulation, the long-term variations of the freshwater content discussed here should be considered when assessing climate change and variability.
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2020-05-11
    Description: Marine sponges (phylum Porifera) are among the oldest multicellular animals (metazoans), the sea's most prolific producers of bioactive metabolites, and of considerable ecological importance due to their abundance and ability to filter enormous volumes of seawater. In addition to these important attributes, sponge microbiology is now a rapidly expanding field.
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2018-04-11
    Description: Data from an array of six moorings deployed east of Abaco, Bahamas, along 26.5°N during March 2004–May 2005 are analyzed. These moorings formed the western boundary array of a transbasin observing system designed to continuously monitor the meridional overturning circulation and meridional heat flux in the subtropical North Atlantic, under the framework of the joint U.K.–U.S. Rapid Climate Change (RAPID)–Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) Program. Important features of the western boundary circulation include the southward-flowing deep western boundary current (DWBC) below 1000 m and the northward-flowing “Antilles” Current in the upper 1000 m. Transports in the western boundary layer are estimated from direct current meter observations and from dynamic height moorings that measure the spatially integrated geostrophic flow between moorings. The results of these methods are combined to estimate the time-varying transports in the upper and deep ocean over the width of the western boundary layer to a distance of 500 km offshore of the Bahamas escarpment. The net southward transport of the DWBC across this region, inclusive of northward deep recirculation, is −26.5 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1), which is divided nearly equally between upper (−13.9 Sv) and lower (−12.6 Sv) North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). In the top 1000 m, 6.0 Sv flows northward in a thermocline-intensified jet near the western boundary. These transports are found to agree well with historical current meter data in the region collected between 1986 and 1997. Variability in both shallow and deep components of the circulation is large, with transports above 1000 m varying between −15 and +25 Sv and deep transports varying between −60 and +3 Sv. Much of this transport variability, associated with barotropic fluctuations, occurs on relatively short time scales of several days to a few weeks. Upon removal of the barotropic fluctuations, slower baroclinic transport variations are revealed, including a temporary stoppage of the lower NADW transport in the DWBC during November 2004.
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  • 11
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Physical Oceanography, 37 . pp. 1282-1296.
    Publication Date: 2020-08-04
    Description: A generalization of the transformed Eulerian and temporal residual means is presented. The new formulation uses rotational fluxes of buoyancy, and the full hierarchy of statistical density moments, to reduce the cross-isopycnal eddy flux to the physically relevant component associated with the averaged water mass properties. The resulting eddy-induced diapycnal diffusivity vanishes for adiabatic, statistically steady flow, and is related to either the growth or decay of mesoscale density variance and/or the covariance between small-scale forcing (mixing) and density fluctuations, such as that associated with the irreversible removal of density variance by dissipation. The relationship between the new formulation and previous approaches is described and is illustrated using results from an eddying channel model. The formalism is quite general and applies to all kinds of averaging and to any tracer (not just density).
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2020-08-04
    Description: Using the same approach as in Part I, here it is shown how sampling problems in voluntary observing ship (VOS) data affect conclusions about interannual variations and secular changes of surface heat fluxes. The largest uncertainties in linear trend estimates are found in relatively poorly sampled regions like the high-latitude North Atlantic and North Pacific as well as the Southern Ocean, where trends can locally show opposite signs when computed from the regularly sampled and undersampled data. Spatial patterns of shorter-period interannual variability, quantified through the EOF analysis, also show remarkable differences between the regularly sampled and undersampled flux datasets in the Labrador Sea and northwest Pacific. In particular, it is shown that in the Labrador Sea region, in contrast to regularly sampled NCEP–NCAR reanalysis fluxes, VOS-like sampled NCEP–NCAR reanalysis fluxes neither show significant interannual variability nor significant trends. These regions, although quite localized covering small parts of the globe, play a crucial role for the coupled atmosphere–ocean system. In the Labrador Sea, for instance, interannual and decadal-scale changes of the surface net heat fluxes are known to affect oceanic convection and, thus, the meridional overturning circulation of the Atlantic Ocean. From a discussion of current atmospheric data assimilation systems it is argued that in poorly sampled regions reanalysis products are superior to VOS-based products for studying interannual and interdecadal variations of atmosphere–ocean interaction. In well-sampled regions, on the other hand, conclusions about surface heat flux variations are relatively insensitive to the choice of the flux products used (VOS versus reanalysis data). The results are confirmed for two different datasets, that is, ECMWF 40-yr Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data and seasonal integrations with a recent version of the ECMWF model in which no actual data were assimilated.
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2020-10-26
    Description: Resolving flow geometry in the mantle wedge is central to understanding the thermal and chemical structure of subduction zones, subducting plate dehydration, and melting that leads to arc volcanism, which can threaten large populations and alter climate through gas and particle emission. Here we show that isotope geochemistry and seismic velocity anisotropy provide strong evidence for trench-parallel flow in the mantle wedge beneath Costa Rica and Nicaragua. This finding contradicts classical models, which predict trench-normal flow owing to the overlying wedge mantle being dragged downwards by the subducting plate. The isotopic signature of central Costa Rican volcanic rocks is not consistent with its derivation from the mantle wedge1, 2, 3 or eroded fore-arc complexes4 but instead from seamounts of the Galapagos hotspot track on the subducting Cocos plate. This isotopic signature decreases continuously from central Costa Rica to northwestern Nicaragua. As the age of the isotopic signature beneath Costa Rica can be constrained and its transport distance is known, minimum northwestward flow rates can be estimated (63–190 mm yr-1) and are comparable to the magnitude of subducting Cocos plate motion (approx85 mm yr-1). Trench-parallel flow needs to be taken into account in models evaluating thermal and chemical structure and melt generation in subduction zones.
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2017-08-23
    Description: A tangent linear adjoint for a low-resolution dynamical model of the atmosphere is used to derive the optimal forcing perturbations for all state variables such that after a specified lead time the model response has a given projection, in terms of an energy norm, on the pattern associated with the 51-yr trend in the Northern Hemisphere winter tropospheric circulation, 1948/49–1998/99. A feature of the derived forcing sensitivity is a Rossby wave–like feature that emanates from the western tropical Pacific and is associated with the deepening of the Aleutian low, whereas an annular pattern in the forcing sensitivity in the uppermost model level is shown to be associated with the pattern of the trend over the Euro-Atlantic/Asian sectors, including the upward trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index. The authors argue that the Rossby wave–type feature is consistent with studies that have argued a role for the upward trend in tropical sea surface temperature during the 51-yr period. On the other hand, the authors interpret the annular pattern in the forcing sensitivity as being consistent with studies that have argued that the trend over the Euro-Atlantic sector was associated with influences from the stratosphere. In particular, a nonlinear model driven by the optimal forcing perturbation applied only to the top model level is successful at reproducing the trend pattern with the correct amplitude in the Euro-Atlantic sector, but implies a trend over the North Pacific toward a weaker Aleutian low, contrary to what was observed but similar to the spatial pattern associated with the northern annular mode. These results show that the adjoint approach can shed light on previous apparently different interpretations of the trend. The study also presents a successful application of a tangent linear adjoint model to a climate problem.
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  • 15
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Weather and Forecasting, 22 (3). pp. 480-500.
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: On 19 October 2000, Hurricane Michael merged with an approaching baroclinic trough over the western North Atlantic Ocean south of Nova Scotia. As the hurricane moved over cooler sea surface temperatures (SSTs; less than 25°C), it intensified to category-2 intensity on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale [maximum sustained wind speeds of 44 m s−1 (85 kt)] while tapping energy from the baroclinic environment. The large “hybrid” storm made landfall on the south coast of Newfoundland with maximum sustained winds of 39 m s−1 (75 kt) causing moderate damage to coastal communities east of landfall. Hurricane Michael presented significant challenges to weather forecasters. The fundamental issue was determining which of two cyclones (a newly formed baroclinic low south of Nova Scotia or the hurricane) would become the dominant circulation center during the early stages of the extratropical transition (ET) process. Second, it was difficult to predict the intensity of the storm at landfall owing to competing factors: 1) decreasing SSTs conducive to weakening and 2) the approaching negatively tilted upper-level trough, favoring intensification. Numerical hindcast simulations using the limited-area Mesoscale Compressible Community model with synthetic vortex insertion (cyclone bogus) prior to the ET of Hurricane Michael led to a more realistic evolution of wind and pressure compared to running the model without vortex insertion. Specifically, the mesoscale model correctly simulates the hurricane as the dominant circulation center early in the transition process, versus the baroclinic low to its north, which was the favored development in the runs not employing vortex insertion. A suite of experiments is conducted to establish the sensitivity of the ET to various initial conditions, lateral driving fields, domain sizes, and model parameters. The resulting storm tracks and intensities fall within the range of the operational guidance, lending support to the possibility of improving numerical forecasts using synthetic vortex insertion prior to ET in such a model.
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2017-08-23
    Description: Recent observations show dramatic changes of the Arctic atmosphere–ice–ocean system. Here the authors demonstrate, through the analysis of a vast collection of previously unsynthesized observational data, that over the twentieth century the central Arctic Ocean became increasingly saltier with a rate of freshwater loss of 239 ± 270 km3 decade−1. In contrast, long-term (1920–2003) freshwater content (FWC) trends over the Siberian shelf show a general freshening tendency with a rate of 29 ± 50 km3 decade−1. These FWC trends are modulated by strong multidecadal variability with sustained and widespread patterns. Associated with this variability, the FWC record shows two periods in the 1920s–30s and in recent decades when the central Arctic Ocean was saltier, and two periods in the earlier century and in the 1940s–70s when it was fresher. The current analysis of potential causes for the recent central Arctic Ocean salinification suggests that the FWC anomalies generated on Arctic shelves (including anomalies resulting from river discharge inputs) and those caused by net atmospheric precipitation were too small to trigger long-term FWC variations in the central Arctic Ocean; to the contrary, they tend to moderate the observed long-term central-basin FWC changes. Variability of the intermediate Atlantic Water did not have apparent impact on changes of the upper–Arctic Ocean water masses. The authors’ estimates suggest that ice production and sustained draining of freshwater from the Arctic Ocean in response to winds are the key contributors to the salinification of the upper Arctic Ocean over recent decades. Strength of the export of Arctic ice and water controls the supply of Arctic freshwater to subpolar basins while the intensity of the Arctic Ocean FWC anomalies is of less importance. Observational data demonstrate striking coherent long-term variations of the key Arctic climate parameters and strong coupling of long-term changes in the Arctic–North Atlantic climate system. Finally, since the high-latitude freshwater plays a crucial role in establishing and regulating global thermohaline circulation, the long-term variations of the freshwater content discussed here should be considered when assessing climate change and variability.
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2020-02-18
    Description: The climate of the North Atlantic region exhibits fluctuations on decadal timescales that have large societal consequences. Prominent examples include hurricane activity in the Atlantic1, and surface-temperature and rainfall variations over North America2, Europe3 and northern Africa4. Although these multidecadal variations are potentially predictable if the current state of the ocean is known5, 6, 7, the lack of subsurface ocean observations8 that constrain this state has been a limiting factor for realizing the full skill potential of such predictions9. Here we apply a simple approach—that uses only sea surface temperature (SST) observations—to partly overcome this difficulty and perform retrospective decadal predictions with a climate model. Skill is improved significantly relative to predictions made with incomplete knowledge of the ocean state10, particularly in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific oceans. Thus these results point towards the possibility of routine decadal climate predictions. Using this method, and by considering both internal natural climate variations and projected future anthropogenic forcing, we make the following forecast: over the next decade, the current Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will weaken to its long-term mean; moreover, North Atlantic SST and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly, whereas tropical Pacific SST will remain almost unchanged. Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming.
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  • 18
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    Nature Publishing Group
    In:  Nature Geoscience, 1 (7). pp. 423-424.
    Publication Date: 2017-02-23
    Description: Ninety-five million years ago, ocean bottom waters were much warmer than at present. Some of this warmth could have come from the proto-North Atlantic's continental shelves after the balmy surface waters became increasingly salty through evaporation.
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: The early oceanographic history of the Arctic Ocean is important in regulating, and responding to, climatic changes. However, constraints on its oceanographic history preceding the Quaternary (the past 1.8 Myr) have become available only recently, because of the difficulties associated with obtaining continuous sediment records in such a hostile setting. Here, we use the neodymium isotope compositions of two sediment cores recovered near the North Pole to reconstruct over the past approx15 Myr the sources contributing to Arctic Intermediate Water, a water mass found today at depths of 200 to 1,500 m. We interpret high neodymium ratios for the period between 15 and 2 Myr ago, and for the glacial periods thereafter, as indicative of weathering input from the Siberian Putoranan basalts into the Arctic Ocean. Arctic Intermediate Water was then derived from brine formation in the Eurasian shelf regions, with only a limited contribution of intermediate water from the North Atlantic. In contrast, the modern circulation pattern, with relatively high contributions of North Atlantic Intermediate Water and negligible input from brine formation, exhibits low neodymium isotope ratios and is typical for the interglacial periods of the past 2 Myr. We suggest that changes in climatic conditions and the tectonic setting were responsible for switches between these two modes.
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  • 20
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Climate, 20 (10). pp. 2058-2075.
    Publication Date: 2017-08-23
    Description: In this paper, a version of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational model is used to (i) diagnose the diabatic heating associated with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and (ii) assess the role of this heating in the dynamics of the NAO in the model. Over the North Atlantic sector, the NAO-related diabatic heating is dominated above the planetary boundary layer by the latent heat release associated with precipitation, and within the boundary layer by vertical diffusion associated with sensible heat flux from the ocean. An association between La Niña–El Niño–type conditions in the tropical Pacific and the positive/negative NAO is found in model runs using initial conditions and sea surface temperature (SST) lower boundary conditions from the period 1982–2001, but not in a companion set of model runs for the period 1962–81. Model experiments are then described in which the NAO-related diabatic heating diagnosed from the 1982–2001 control run is applied as a constant forcing in the model temperature equation using both 1982–2001 and 1962–81 model setups. To assess the local feedback from the diabatic heating, the specified forcing is first restricted to the North Atlantic sector alone. In this case, the model response (in an ensemble mean sense) is suggestive of a weak negative feedback, but exhibits more baroclinic structure and has its centers of action shifted compared to those of the NAO. On the other hand, forcing with only the tropical Pacific part of the diabatic heating leads to a robust model response in both the 1982–2001 and 1962–81 model setups. The model response projects on to the NAO with the same sign as that used to diagnose the forcing, arguing that the link between the tropical Pacific and the NAO is real in the 1982–2001 control run. The missing link in the corresponding run for 1962–81 is a result of a change in the tropical forcing between the two periods, and not the extratropical flow regime.
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  • 21
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Physical Oceanography, 37 . pp. 1445-1454.
    Publication Date: 2020-08-04
    Description: The depth of winter convection in the central Labrador Sea is strongly influenced by the prevailing stratification in late summer. For this late summer stratification salinity is as important as temperature, and in the upper water layers salinity even dominates. To analyze the source of the spring and summer freshening in the central region, seasonal freshwater cycles have been constructed for the interior Labrador Sea, the West Greenland Current, and the Labrador Current. It is shown that none of the local freshwater sources is responsible for the spring–summer freshening in the interior, which appears to occur in two separate events in April to May and July to September. Comparing the timing and volume estimates of the seasonal freshwater cycles of the boundary currents with the central Labrador Sea helps in understanding the origin of the interior freshwater signals. The first smaller pulse cannot be attributed clearly to either of the boundary currents. The second one is about three times stronger and supplies 60% of the seasonal summer freshwater. Transport estimates and calculated mixing properties provide evidence that its source is the West Greenland Current. The finding implies a connection also on interannual time scales between Labrador Sea surface salinity and freshwater sources in the West Greenland Current and farther upstream in the East Greenland Current. The freshwater input from the West Greenland Current thus also is the likely pathway for the known modulation of Labrador Sea Water mass formation by freshwater export from the Arctic (via the East Greenland Current), which implies some predictability on longer time scales.
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  • 22
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Climate, 20 (14). pp. 3452-3469.
    Publication Date: 2020-08-04
    Description: Multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) of surface zonal wind, sea surface temperature (SST), 20° isotherm depth, and surface zonal current observations (between 1990 and 2004) identifies three coupled ocean–atmosphere modes of variability in the tropical Pacific: the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the annual cycle, and a mode with a 14–18-month period, which is referred to as sub-ENSO in this study. The sub-ENSO mode accounts for the near 18-month (near annual) variability prior to (following) the 1997/98 El Niño event. It was strongest during this El Niño event, with SST anomalies exceeding 1°C. Sub-ENSO peak SST anomalies are ENSO-like in structure and are associated with eastward propagating heat content variations. However, the SST anomalies are preceded by and in near quadrature with relatively strong remotely forced westward propagating zonal current variations, suggesting the sub-ENSO mode arises from the zonal-advective feedback. The sub-ENSO mode is found to exist also in an intermediate complexity model (ICM) of the tropical Pacific. A heat budget analysis of the model’s sub-ENSO mode shows it indeed arises from the zonal-advective feedback. In the model, both ENSO and sub-ENSO modes coexist, but there is a weak nonlinear interaction between them. Experiments also show that the observed changes in sub-ENSO’s characteristics may be explained by changes in the relative importance of zonal and vertical advection SST tendencies.
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2017-02-22
    Description: Organic-rich sedimentary units called sapropels have formed repeatedly in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, in response to variations of solar radiation. Sapropel formation is due to a change either in the flux of organic matter to the sea floor from productivity changes or in preservation by bottom-water oxygen levels. However, the relative importance of surface-ocean productivity versus deep-water preservation for the formation of these organic-rich shale beds is still being debated, and conflicting interpretations are often invoked1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. Here we analyse at high resolution the differences in the composition of the most recent sapropel, S1, in a suite of cores covering the entire eastern Mediterranean basin. We demonstrate that during the 4,000 years of sapropel formation, surface-water salinity was reduced and the deep eastern Mediterranean Sea, below 1,800 m depth, was devoid of oxygen. This resulted in the preferential basin-wide preservation of sapropel S1 with different characteristics above and below 1,800 m depth as a result of different redox conditions. We conclude that climate-induced stratification of the ocean may therefore contribute to enhanced preservation of organic matter in sapropels and potentially also in black shales.
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  • 24
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 88 . pp. 1383-1394.
    Publication Date: 2017-05-11
    Description: A coordinated set of global coupled climate model [atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM)] experiments for twentieth- and twenty-first-century climate, as well as several climate change commitment and other experiments, was run by 16 modeling groups from 11 countries with 23 models for assessment in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Since the assessment was completed, output from another model has been added to the dataset, so the participation is now 17 groups from 12 countries with 24 models. This effort, as well as the subsequent analysis phase, was organized by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Working Group on Coupled Models (WGCM) Climate Simulation Panel, and constitutes the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). The dataset is called the WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset, and represents the largest and most comprehensive international global coupled climate model experiment and multimodel analysis effort ever attempted. As of March 2007, the Program for Climate Model Diagnostics and Intercomparison (PCMDI) has collected, archived, and served roughly 32 TB of model data. With oversight from the panel, the multimodel data were made openly available from PCMDI for analysis and academic applications. Over 171 TB of data had been downloaded among the more than 1000 registered users to date. Over 200 journal articles, based in part on the dataset, have been published so far. Though initially aimed at the IPCC AR4, this unique and valuable resource will continue to be maintained for at least the next several years. Never before has such an extensive set of climate model simulations been made available to the international climate science community for study. The ready access to the multimodel dataset opens up these types of model analyses to researchers, including students, who previously could not obtain state-of-the-art climate model output, and thus represents a new era in climate change research. As a direct consequence, these ongoing studies are increasing the body of knowledge regarding our understanding of how the climate system currently works, and how it may change in the future.
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: Deep-water formation in the northern North Atlantic Ocean and the Arctic Ocean is a key driver of the global thermohaline circulation and hence also of global climate1. Deciphering the history of the circulation regime in the Arctic Ocean has long been prevented by the lack of data from cores of Cenozoic sediments from the Arctic's deep-sea floor. Similarly, the timing of the opening of a connection between the northern North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean, permitting deep-water exchange, has been poorly constrained. This situation changed when the first drill cores were recovered from the central Arctic Ocean2. Here we use these cores to show that the transition from poorly oxygenated to fully oxygenated ('ventilated') conditions in the Arctic Ocean occurred during the later part of early Miocene times. We attribute this pronounced change in ventilation regime to the opening of the Fram Strait. A palaeo-geographic and palaeo-bathymetric reconstruction of the Arctic Ocean, together with a physical oceanographic analysis of the evolving strait and sill conditions in the Fram Strait, suggests that the Arctic Ocean went from an oxygen-poor 'lake stage', to a transitional 'estuarine sea' phase with variable ventilation, and finally to the fully ventilated 'ocean' phase 17.5 Myr ago. The timing of this palaeo-oceanographic change coincides with the onset of the middle Miocene climatic optimum3, although it remains unclear if there is a causal relationship between these two events.
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  • 26
    Publication Date: 2017-03-06
    Description: Diatoms are photosynthetic secondary endosymbionts found throughout marine and freshwater environments, and are believed to be responsible for around one-fifth of the primary productivity on Earth1, 2. The genome sequence of the marine centric diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana was recently reported, revealing a wealth of information about diatom biology3, 4, 5. Here we report the complete genome sequence of the pennate diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum and compare it with that of T. pseudonana to clarify evolutionary origins, functional significance and ubiquity of these features throughout diatoms. In spite of the fact that the pennate and centric lineages have only been diverging for 90 million years, their genome structures are dramatically different and a substantial fraction of genes (approx40%) are not shared by these representatives of the two lineages. Analysis of molecular divergence compared with yeasts and metazoans reveals rapid rates of gene diversification in diatoms. Contributing factors include selective gene family expansions, differential losses and gains of genes and introns, and differential mobilization of transposable elements. Most significantly, we document the presence of hundreds of genes from bacteria. More than 300 of these gene transfers are found in both diatoms, attesting to their ancient origins, and many are likely to provide novel possibilities for metabolite management and for perception of environmental signals. These findings go a long way towards explaining the incredible diversity and success of the diatoms in contemporary oceans.
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  • 27
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Climate, 20 (2). pp. 279-301.
    Publication Date: 2020-08-04
    Description: Sampling uncertainties in the voluntary observing ship (VOS)-based global ocean–atmosphere flux fields were estimated using the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and ECMWF 40-yr Re-Analysis (ERA-40) as well as seasonal forecasts without data assimilation. Air–sea fluxes were computed from 6-hourly reanalyzed individual variables using state-of-the-art bulk formulas. Individual variables and computed fluxes were subsampled to simulate VOS-like sampling density. Random simulation of the number of VOS observations and simulation of the number of observations with contemporaneous sampling allowed for estimation of random and total sampling uncertainties respectively. Although reanalyses are dependent on VOS, constituting an important part of data assimilation input, it is assumed that the reanalysis fields adequately reproduce synoptic variability at the sea surface. Sampling errors were quantified by comparison of the regularly sampled (i.e., 6 hourly) and subsampled monthly fields of surface variables and fluxes. In poorly sampled regions random sampling errors amount to 2.5°–3°C for air temperature, 3 m s−1 for the wind speed, 2–2.5 g kg−1 for specific humidity, and 15%–20% of the total cloud cover. The highest random sampling errors in surface fluxes were found for the sensible and latent heat flux and range from 30 to 80 W m−2. Total sampling errors in poorly sampled areas may be higher than random ones by 60%. In poorly sampled subpolar latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and throughout much of the Southern Ocean the total sampling uncertainty in the net heat flux can amount to 80–100 W m−2. The highest values of the uncertainties associated with the interpolation/extrapolation into unsampled grid boxes are found in subpolar latitudes of both hemispheres for the turbulent fluxes, where they can be comparable with the sampling errors. Simple dependencies of the sampling errors on the number of samples and the magnitude of synoptic variability were derived. Sampling errors estimated from different reanalyses and from seasonal forecasts yield qualitatively comparable spatial patterns, in which the actual values of uncertainties are controlled by the magnitudes of synoptic variability. Finally, estimates of sampling uncertainties are compared with the other errors in air–sea fluxes and the reliability of the estimates obtained is discussed.
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2017-02-22
    Description: Observations show a significant intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies, the prevailing winds between the latitudes of 30° and 60° S, over the past decades. A continuation of this intensification trend is projected by climate scenarios for the twenty-first century. The response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the carbon sink in the Southern Ocean to changes in wind stress and surface buoyancy fluxes is under debate. Here we analyse the Argo network of profiling floats and historical oceanographic data to detect coherent hemispheric-scale warming and freshening trends that extend to depths of more than 1,000 m. The warming and freshening is partly related to changes in the properties of the water masses that make up the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, which are consistent with the anthropogenic changes in heat and freshwater fluxes suggested by climate models. However, we detect no increase in the tilt of the surfaces of equal density across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, in contrast to coarse-resolution model studies. Our results imply that the transport in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and meridional overturning in the Southern Ocean are insensitive to decadal changes in wind stress.
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2020-08-04
    Description: The causes and characteristics of interannual–decadal variability of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the North Atlantic are investigated with a suite of basin-scale ocean models [the Family of Linked Atlantic Model Experiments (FLAME)] and global ocean–ice models (ORCA), varying in resolution from medium to eddy resolving (½°–1/12°), using various forcing configurations built on bulk formulations invoking atmospheric reanalysis products. Comparison of the model hindcasts indicates similar MOC variability characteristics on time scales up to a decade; both model architectures also simulate an upward trend in MOC strength between the early 1970s and mid-1990s. The causes of the MOC changes are examined by perturbation experiments aimed selectively at the response to individual forcing components. The solutions emphasize an inherently linear character of the midlatitude MOC variability by demonstrating that the anomalies of a (non–eddy resolving) hindcast simulation can be understood as a superposition of decadal and longer-term signals originating from thermohaline forcing variability, and a higher-frequency wind-driven variability. The thermohaline MOC signal is linked to the variability in subarctic deep-water formation, and rapidly progressing to the tropical Atlantic. However, throughout the subtropical and midlatitude North Atlantic, this signal is effectively masked by stronger MOC variability related to wind forcing and, especially north of 30°–35°N, by internally induced (eddy) fluctuations.
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  • 30
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Physical Oceanography, 37 . pp. 727-742.
    Publication Date: 2020-08-04
    Description: Output from an eddy-resolving model of the North Atlantic Ocean is used to estimate values for the thickness diffusivity κ appropriate to the Gent and McWilliams parameterization. The effect of different choices of rotational eddy fluxes on the estimated κ is discussed. Using the raw fluxes (no rotational flux removed), large negative values (exceeding −5000 m2 s−1) of κ are diagnosed locally, particularly in the Gulf Stream region and in the equatorial Atlantic. Removing a rotational flux based either on the suggestion of Marshall and Shutts or the more general theory of Medvedev and Greatbatch leads to a reduction of the negative values, but they are still present. The regions where κ 〈 0 correspond to regions where eddies are acting to increase, rather than decrease (as in baroclinic instability) the mean available potential energy. In the subtropical gyre, κ ranges between 500 and 2000 m2 s−1, rapidly decreasing to zero below the thermocline in all cases. Rotational fluxes and κ are also estimated using an optimization technique. In this case, |κ| can be reduced or increased by construction, but the regions where κ 〈 0 are still present and the optimized rotational fluxes also remain similar to a priori values given by the theoretical considerations. A previously neglected component (ν) of the bolus velocity is associated with the horizontal flux of buoyancy along, rather than across, the mean buoyancy contours. The ν component of the bolus velocity is interpreted as a streamfunction for eddy-induced advection, rather than diffusion, of mean isopycnal layer thickness, showing up when the lateral eddy fluxes cannot be described by isotropic diffusion only. All estimates show a similar large-scale pattern for ν, implying westward advection of isopycnal thickness over much of the subtropical gyre. Comparing ν with a mean streamfunction shows that it is about 10% of the mean in midlatitudes and even larger than the mean in the Tropics.
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  • 31
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    Nature Publishing Group
    In:  Nature, 454 . pp. 46-47.
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: Rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide lead to acidification of the oceans. A site in the Mediterranean, naturally carbonated by under-sea volcanoes, provides clues to the possible effects on marine ecosystems.
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  • 32
    Publication Date: 2016-05-25
    Description: The ecological niche of nitrate-storing Beggiatoa, and their contribution to the removal of sulfide were investigated in coastal sediment. With microsensors a clear suboxic zone of 2-10cm thick was identified, where neither oxygen nor free sulfide was detectable. In this zone most of the Beggiatoa were found, where they oxidize sulfide with internally stored nitrate. The sulfide input into the suboxic zone was dominated by an upward sulfide flux from deeper sediment, whereas the local production in the suboxic zone was much smaller. Despite their abundance, the calculated sulfide-oxidizing capacity of the Beggiatoa could account for only a small fraction of the total sulfide removal in the sediment. Consequently, most of the sulfide flux into the suboxic layer must have been removed by chemical processes, mainly by precipitation with Fe2+ and oxidation by Fe(III), which was coupled with a pH increase. The free Fe2+ diffusing upwards was oxidized by Mn(IV), resulting in a strong pH decrease. The nitrate storage capacity allows Beggiatoa to migrate randomly up and down in anoxic sediments with an accumulated gliding distance of 4m before running out of nitrate. We propose that the steep sulfide gradient and corresponding high sulfide flux, a typical characteristic of Beggiatoa habitats, is not needed for their metabolic performance, but rather used as a chemotactic cue by the highly motile filaments to avoid getting lost at depth in the sediment. Indeed sulfide is a repellant for Beggiatoa.
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  • 33
    Publication Date: 2020-01-07
    Description: Large uncertainties remain in the current and future contribution to sea level rise from Antarctica. Climate warming may increase snowfall in the continent’s interior1,2,3, but enhance glacier discharge at the coast where warmer air and ocean temperatures erode the buttressing ice shelves4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11. Here, we use satellite interferometric synthetic-aperture radar observations from 1992 to 2006 covering 85% of Antarctica’s coastline to estimate the total mass flux into the ocean. We compare the mass fluxes from large drainage basin units with interior snow accumulation calculated from a regional atmospheric climate model for 1980 to 2004. In East Antarctica, small glacier losses in Wilkes Land and glacier gains at the mouths of the Filchner and Ross ice shelves combine to a near-zero loss of 4±61 Gt yr−1. In West Antarctica, widespread losses along the Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas increased the ice sheet loss by 59% in 10 years to reach 132±60 Gt yr−1 in 2006. In the Peninsula, losses increased by 140% to reach 60±46 Gt yr−1 in 2006. Losses are concentrated along narrow channels occupied by outlet glaciers and are caused by ongoing and past glacier acceleration. Changes in glacier flow therefore have a significant, if not dominant impact on ice sheet mass balance.
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  • 34
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Climate, 21 . pp. 4691-4709.
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: The relative impact of the subtropical North and South Pacific Oceans on the tropical Pacific climate mean state and variability is estimated using an ocean–atmosphere–sea ice coupled general circulation model. Tailored experiments are performed in which the model is forced by idealized sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the subtropics of both hemispheres. The main results of this study suggest that subtropical South Pacific climate variations play a dominant role in tropical Pacific decadal variability and in the decadal modulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In response to a 2°C warming in the subtropical South Pacific, the equatorial Pacific SST increases by about 0.6°C, approximately 65% larger than the change in the North Pacific experiment. The subtropics affect equatorial SST mainly through atmosphere–mixed layer interactions in the South Pacific experiments; the response is mostly accomplished within a decade. The “oceanic tunnel” dominates in the North Pacific experiments; the response takes at least 100 yr to be accomplished. Similar sensitivity experiments conducted with the stand-alone atmosphere model showed that both air–sea interactions and ocean dynamics are crucial in shaping the tropical climate response. The statistics of ENSO exhibit significant changes in amplitude and frequency in response to a warming/cooling of the subtropical South Pacific: a 2°C warming (cooling) of subtropical South Pacific SST reduces (increases) the interannual standard deviation by about 30% (20%) and shortens (lengthens) the ENSO period. The simulated changes in the equatorial zonal SST gradient are the main contributor to the modulation of ENSO variability. The simulated intensification (weakening) of the annual cycle in response to an enhanced warming (cooling) in subtropical South Pacific partly explains the shifts in frequency, but may also lead to a weaker (stronger) ENSO. The subtropical North Pacific thermal forcing did not change the statistical properties of ENSO as strongly.
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: The oceans have absorbed nearly half of the fossil-fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted into the atmosphere since pre-industrial times1, causing a measurable reduction in seawater pH and carbonate saturation2. If CO2 emissions continue to rise at current rates, upper-ocean pH will decrease to levels lower than have existed for tens of millions of years and, critically, at a rate of change 100 times greater than at any time over this period3. Recent studies have shown effects of ocean acidification on a variety of marine life forms, in particular calcifying organisms4, 5, 6. Consequences at the community to ecosystem level, in contrast, are largely unknown. Here we show that dissolved inorganic carbon consumption of a natural plankton community maintained in mesocosm enclosures at initial CO2 partial pressures of 350, 700 and 1,050 μatm increases with rising CO2. The community consumed up to 39% more dissolved inorganic carbon at increased CO2 partial pressures compared to present levels, whereas nutrient uptake remained the same. The stoichiometry of carbon to nitrogen drawdown increased from 6.0 at low CO2 to 8.0 at high CO2, thus exceeding the Redfield carbon:nitrogen ratio of 6.6 in today’s ocean7. This excess carbon consumption was associated with higher loss of organic carbon from the upper layer of the stratified mesocosms. If applicable to the natural environment, the observed responses have implications for a variety of marine biological and biogeochemical processes, and underscore the importance of biologically driven feedbacks in the ocean to global change.
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  • 36
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: Combined simultaneous satellite observations are used to evaluate the performance of parameterizations of the microphysical and optical properties of cirrus clouds used for radiative flux computations in climate models. Atmospheric and cirrus properties retrieved from Television and Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS-N) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) observations are given as input to the radiative transfer model developed for the Met Office climate model to simulate radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Simulated cirrus shortwave (SW) albedos are then compared to those retrieved from collocated Scanner for Radiation Budget (ScaRaB) observations. For the retrieval, special care has been given to angular direction models. Three parameterizations of cirrus ice crystal optical properties are represented in the Met Office radiative transfer model. These parameterizations are based on different physical approximations and different hypotheses on crystal habit. One parameterization assumes pristine ice crystals and two ice crystal aggregates. By relating the cirrus ice water path (IWP) retrieved from the effective infrared emissivity to the cirrus SW albedo, differences between the parameterizations are amplified. This study shows that pristine crystals seem to be plausible only for cirrus with IWP less than 30 g m−2. For larger IWP, ice crystal aggregates lead to cirrus SW albedos in better agreement with the observations. The data also indicate that climate models should allow the cirrus effective ice crystal diameter (De) to increase with IWP, especially in the range up to 30 g m−2. For cirrus with IWP less than 20 g m−2, this would lead to SW albedos that are about 0.02 higher than the ones of a constant De of 55 μm.
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  • 37
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Climate, 21 (12). pp. 2810-2823.
    Publication Date: 2020-08-04
    Description: The manner in which monthly mean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) show enhanced variance at the annual period in the extratropics (an annual peak in the variance spectrum) is illustrated by observations and model simulations. A mechanism, related to the reemergence of winter SST anomalies, is proposed to explain the annual peak in SST spectrum. The idea is supported by the analysis of a hierarchy of models, including Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change model simulations. The results of the model experiments further suggest that the annual peak is either weak or absent if decadal SST variability is forced by local air–sea interaction. However, if ocean subsurface temperature variability forces decadal SST variability, the annual peak is much stronger. Strong annual peaks may therefore be seen as an indication of ocean-forced decadal SST variability in the extratropics.
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  • 38
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Physical Oceanography, 38 (1). pp. 177-192.
    Publication Date: 2020-08-04
    Description: The shallow subtropical–tropical cells (STC) of the Atlantic Ocean have been studied from the output fields of a 50-yr run of the German partner of the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (GECCO) consortium assimilation model. Comparison of GECCO with time-mean observational estimates of density and meridional currents at 10°S and 10°N, which represent the boundaries between the tropics and subtropics in GECCO, shows good agreement in transports of major currents. The variability of the GECCO wind stress in the interior at 10°S and 10°N remains consistent with the NCEP forcing, although temporary changes can be large. On pentadal and longer time scales, an STC loop response is found between the poleward Ekman divergence and STC-layer convergence at 10°S and 10°N via the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) at 23°W, where the divergence leads the EUC and the convergence, suggesting a “pulling” mechanism via equatorial upwelling. The divergence is also associated with changes in the eastern equatorial upper-ocean heat content. Within the STC layer, partial compensation of the western boundary current (WBC) and the interior occurs at 10°S and 10°N. For the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) at 10°S it is found that more than one-half of the variability in the upper limb can be explained by the WBC. The explained MOC variance can be increased to 85% by including the geostrophic (Sverdrup) part of the wind-driven transports.
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  • 39
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Physical Oceanography, 37 (4). pp. 946-961.
    Publication Date: 2020-08-04
    Description: A model of the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean is used to study different aspects of ventilation and water mass transformation during a year with moderate convection intensity in the Labrador Sea. The model realistically describes the salient features of the observed hydrographic structure and current system, including boundary currents and recirculations. Ventilation and transformation rates are defined and compared. The transformation rate of Labrador Sea Water (LSW), defined in analogy to several observational studies, is 6.3 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) in the model. Using an idealized ventilation tracer, mimicking analyses based on chlorofluorocarbon inventories, an LSW ventilation rate of 10 Sv is found. Differences between both rates are particularly significant for those water masses that are partially transformed into denser water masses during winter. The main export route of the ventilated LSW is the deep Labrador Current (LC). Backward calculation of particle trajectories demonstrates that about one-half of the LSW leaving the Labrador Sea within the deep LC originates in the mixed layer during that same year. Near the offshore flank of the deep LC at about 55°W, the transformation of LSW begins in January and is at a maximum in February/March. While the export of transformed LSW out of the central Labrador Sea continues for several months, LSW generated near the boundary current is exported more rapidly, with maximum transport rates during March/April within the deep LC.
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  • 40
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: Climate models predict a gradual weakening of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) during the twenty-first century due to increasing levels of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. Using an ensemble of 16 different coupled climate models performed for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the evolution of the MOC during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries is analyzed by combining model simulations for the IPCC scenarios Twentieth-Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M) and Special Report on Emission Scenarios, A1B (SRESA1B). Earlier findings are confirmed that even for the same forcing scenario the model response is spread over a large range. However, no model predicts abrupt changes or a total collapse of the MOC. To reduce the uncertainty of the projections, different weighting procedures are applied to obtain “best estimates” of the future MOC evolution, considering the skill of each model to represent present day hydrographic fields of temperature, salinity, and pycnocline depth as well as observation-based mass transport estimates. Using different methods of weighting the various models together, all produce estimates that the MOC will weaken by 25%–30% from present day values by the year 2100; however, absolute values of the MOC and the degree of reduction differ among the weighting methods.
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  • 41
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Climate, 20 (1). pp. 131-142.
    Publication Date: 2020-08-04
    Description: An observational-based analysis of coupled variability in the equatorial Atlantic and its seasonality is presented. Regression analysis shows that the three elements of the Bjerknes positive feedback exist in the Atlantic and are spatially similar to those of the Pacific. The cross-correlation functions of the elements of the Bjerknes feedback are also similar and consistent with an ocean–atmosphere coupled mode. However, the growth rate in the Atlantic is up to 50% weaker, and explained variance is significantly lower. The Bjerknes feedback in the Atlantic is strong in boreal spring and summer, and weak in other seasons, which explains why the largest sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) occur in boreal summer. Its seasonality is determined by seasonal variations in both atmospheric sensitivity to SSTA and SSTA sensitivity to subsurface temperature anomalies.
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  • 42
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    Nature Publishing Group
    In:  Nature Geoscience, 1 . pp. 2-3.
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change has convinced the public that climate change is real. To tackle it, the panel needs complementary climate services that provide continuous climate information for all regions and the globe.
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  • 43
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Climate, 20 . pp. 5012-5018.
    Publication Date: 2017-08-23
    Description: This study investigates the influence of El Niño on the upper-ocean circulation in the tropical Atlantic Ocean (via changes in the Atlantic trade winds) by analyzing observed sea surface temperature (SST) together with an ocean general circulation model integration forced by the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis. During periods with anomalously warm (cold) eastern equatorial Pacific SST, the southern Atlantic tropical cell is strengthened (weakened). The difference of the cell strength between El Niño and La Niña years is about 20% of the mean cell strength. However, the variability of the cell is not dominated by the remote forcing from the eastern equatorial Pacific but seems to be caused by intrinsic tropical Atlantic variability. A strengthening (weakening) for periods with anomalously warm (cold) eastern equatorial Pacific SST is also found for the zonal surface and subsurface currents. TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry data are used to validate the results based on the OGCM integration.
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  • 44
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Climate, 21 (14). pp. 3433-3452.
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: Observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic from 1958 through 2000, as well as data from an ocean model simulation driven with the atmospheric variability observed during the same period, are examined using multichannel singular spectrum analysis. The two leading oscillatory modes are associated with a multidecadal and a quasi-decadal period. The former is connected to a basinwide uniform SST pattern and changes in the deep North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The quasi-decadal mode involves a tripolar SST anomaly pattern forced by atmospheric variability with a spatial structure resembling that of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The upper ocean’s dynamical response to this NAO variability provides an instantaneous positive feedback to the SST pattern, while a delayed negative feedback is due to shallow overturning circulation anomalies.
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  • 45
    Publication Date: 2015-01-22
    Description: Permafrost-affected soils of the Siberian Arctic were investigated with regard to identification of nitrite oxidizing bacteria active at low temperature. Analysis of the fatty acid profiles of enrichment cultures grown at 4°C, 10°C and 17°C revealed a pattern that was different from that of known nitrite oxidizers but was similar to fatty acid profiles of Betaproteobacteria. Electron microscopy of two enrichment cultures grown at 10°C showed prevalent cells with a conspicuous ultrastructure. Sequence analysis of the 16S rRNA genes allocated the organisms to a so far uncultivated cluster of the Betaproteobacteria, with Gallionella ferruginea as next related taxonomically described organism. The results demonstrate that a novel genus of chemolithoautotrophic nitrite oxidizing bacteria is present in polygonal tundra soils and can be enriched at low temperatures up to 17°C. Cloned sequences with high sequence similarities were previously reported from mesophilic habitats like activated sludge and therefore an involvement of this taxon in nitrite oxidation in nonarctic habitats is suggested. The presented culture will provide an opportunity to correlate nitrification with nonidentified environmental clones in moderate habitats and give insights into mechanisms of cold adaptation. We propose provisional classification of the novel nitrite oxidizing bacterium as 'Candidatus Nitrotoga arctica'.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 46
    Publication Date: 2023-01-31
    Description: Palaeoclimate records and numerical model simulations indicate that changes in tropical and subtropical sea surface temperatures and in the annual average position of the intertropical convergence zone are linked to high-latitude climate changes on millennial to glacial–interglacial timescales. It has recently been suggested that cooling in the high latitudes associated with abrupt climate-change events is evident primarily during the northern hemisphere winter, implying increased seasonality at these times8. However, it is unclear whether such a seasonal bias also exists for the low latitudes. Here we analyse the Mg/Ca ratios of surface-dwelling foraminifera to reconstruct sea surface temperatures in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico for the past 300,000 years. We suggest that sea surface temperatures are controlled by the migration of the northern boundary of the Atlantic Warm Pool, and hence the position of the intertropical convergence zone during boreal summer, and are relatively insensitive to winter conditions. Our results suggest that summer Atlantic Warm Pool expansion is primarily affected by glacial–interglacial variability and low-latitude summer insolation. Because a clear signature of rapid climate-change events, such as the Younger Dryas cold event, is lacking in our record, we conclude that high-latitude events seem to influence only the winter Caribbean climate conditions, consistent with the hypothesis of extreme northern-hemisphere seasonality during abrupt cooling events.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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