ALBERT

Beschreibung: When cumulonimbus clouds aggregate, developing into a single entity with precipitation covering a horizontal scale of hundreds of kilometers, they are called mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). They account for much of Earth’s precipitation, generate severe weather events and flooding, produce prodigious cirriform anvil clouds, and affect the evolution of the larger-scale circulation. Understanding the inner workings of MCSs has resulted from developments in observational technology and modeling. Time–space conversion of ordinary surface and upper-air observations provided early insight into MCSs, but deeper understanding has followed field campaigns using increasingly sophisticated radars, better aircraft instrumentation, and an ever-widening range of satellite instruments, especially satellite-borne radars. High-resolution modeling and theoretical insights have shown that aggregated cumulonimbus clouds induce a mesoscale circulation consisting of air overturning on a scale larger than the scale of individual convective up- and downdrafts. These layers can be kilometers deep and decoupled from the boundary layer in elevated MCSs. Cooling in the lower troposphere and heating aloft characterize the stratiform regions of MCSs. As a result, long-lived MCSs with large stratiform regions have a top-heavy heating profile that generates potential vorticity in midlevels, thus influencing the larger-scale circulation within which the MCSs occur. Global satellite data show MCSs varying in structure, depending on the prevailing large-scale circulation and topography. These patterns are likely to change with global warming. In addition, environmental pollution affects MCS structure and dynamics subtly. Feedbacks of MCSs therefore need to be included or parameterized in climate models.

Beschreibung: We describe the historical evolution of the conceptualization, formulation, quantification, application, and utilization of “radiative forcing” (RF) of Earth’s climate. Basic theories of shortwave and longwave radiation were developed through the nineteenth and twentieth centuries and established the analytical framework for defining and quantifying the perturbations to Earth’s radiative energy balance by natural and anthropogenic influences. The insight that Earth’s climate could be radiatively forced by changes in carbon dioxide, first introduced in the nineteenth century, gained empirical support with sustained observations of the atmospheric concentrations of the gas beginning in 1957. Advances in laboratory and field measurements, theory, instrumentation, computational technology, data, and analysis of well-mixed greenhouse gases and the global climate system through the twentieth century enabled the development and formalism of RF; this allowed RF to be related to changes in global-mean surface temperature with the aid of increasingly sophisticated models. This in turn led to RF becoming firmly established as a principal concept in climate science by 1990. The linkage with surface temperature has proven to be the most important application of the RF concept, enabling a simple metric to evaluate the relative climate impacts of different agents. The late 1970s and 1980s saw accelerated developments in quantification, including the first assessment of the effect of the forcing due to the doubling of carbon dioxide on climate (the “Charney” report). The concept was subsequently extended to a wide variety of agents beyond well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs; carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and halocarbons) to short-lived species such as ozone. The WMO and IPCC international assessments began the important sequence of periodic evaluations and quantifications of the forcings by natural (solar irradiance changes and stratospheric aerosols resulting from volcanic eruptions) and a growing set of anthropogenic agents (WMGHGs, ozone, aerosols, land surface changes, contrails). From the 1990s to the present, knowledge and scientific confidence in the radiative agents acting on the climate system have proliferated. The conceptual basis of RF has also evolved as both our understanding of the way radiative forcing drives climate change and the diversity of the forcing mechanisms have grown. This has led to the current situation where “effective radiative forcing” (ERF) is regarded as the preferred practical definition of radiative forcing in order to better capture the link between forcing and global-mean surface temperature change. The use of ERF, however, comes with its own attendant issues, including challenges in its diagnosis from climate models, its applications to small forcings, and blurring of the distinction between rapid climate adjustments (fast responses) and climate feedbacks; this will necessitate further elaboration of its utility in the future. Global climate model simulations of radiative perturbations by various agents have established how the forcings affect other climate variables besides temperature (e.g., precipitation). The forcing–response linkage as simulated by models, including the diversity in the spatial distribution of forcings by the different agents, has provided a practical demonstration of the effectiveness of agents in perturbing the radiative energy balance and causing climate changes. The significant advances over the past half century have established, with very high confidence, that the global-mean ERF due to human activity since preindustrial times is positive (the 2013 IPCC assessment gives a best estimate of 2.3 W m−2, with a range from 1.1 to 3.3 W m−2; 90% confidence interval). Further, except in the immediate aftermath of climatically significant volcanic eruptions, the net anthropogenic forcing dominates over natural radiative forcing mechanisms. Nevertheless, the substantial remaining uncertainty in the net anthropogenic ERF leads to large uncertainties in estimates of climate sensitivity from observations and in predicting future climate impacts. The uncertainty in the ERF arises principally from the incorporation of the rapid climate adjustments in the formulation, the well-recognized difficulties in characterizing the preindustrial state of the atmosphere, and the incomplete knowledge of the interactions of aerosols with clouds. This uncertainty impairs the quantitative evaluation of climate adaptation and mitigation pathways in the future. A grand challenge in Earth system science lies in continuing to sustain the relatively simple essence of the radiative forcing concept in a form similar to that originally devised, and at the same time improving the quantification of the forcing. This, in turn, demands an accurate, yet increasingly complex and comprehensive, accounting of the relevant processes in the climate system.

Beschreibung: Today’s global Earth system models began as simple regional models of tropospheric weather systems. Over the past century, the physical realism of the models has steadily increased, while the scope of the models has broadened to include the global troposphere and stratosphere, the ocean, the vegetated land surface, and terrestrial ice sheets. This chapter gives an approximately chronological account of the many and profound conceptual and technological advances that made today’s models possible. For brevity, we omit any discussion of the roles of chemistry and biogeochemistry, and terrestrial ice sheets.

Beschreibung: The central change in understanding of the ocean circulation during the past 100 years has been its emergence as an intensely time-dependent, effectively turbulent and wave-dominated, flow. Early technologies for making the difficult observations were adequate only to depict large-scale, quasi-steady flows. With the electronic revolution of the past 50+ years, the emergence of geophysical fluid dynamics, the strongly inhomogeneous time-dependent nature of oceanic circulation physics finally emerged. Mesoscale (balanced), submesoscale oceanic eddies at 100-km horizontal scales and shorter, and internal waves are now known to be central to much of the behavior of the system. Ocean circulation is now recognized to involve both eddies and larger-scale flows with dominant elements and their interactions varying among the classical gyres, the boundary current regions, the Southern Ocean, and the tropics.

Beschreibung: This chapter reviews the history of the discovery of cloud nuclei and their impacts on cloud microphysics and the climate system. Pioneers including John Aitken, Sir John Mason, Hilding Köhler, Christian Junge, Sean Twomey, and Kenneth Whitby laid the foundations of the field. Through their contributions and those of many others, rapid progress has been made in the last 100 years in understanding the sources, evolution, and composition of the atmospheric aerosol, the interactions of particles with atmospheric water vapor, and cloud microphysical processes. Major breakthroughs in measurement capabilities and in theoretical understanding have elucidated the characteristics of cloud condensation nuclei and ice nucleating particles and the role these play in shaping cloud microphysical properties and the formation of precipitation. Despite these advances, not all their impacts on cloud formation and evolution have been resolved. The resulting radiative forcing on the climate system due to aerosol–cloud interactions remains an unacceptably large uncertainty in future climate projections. Process-level understanding of aerosol–cloud interactions remains insufficient to support technological mitigation strategies such as intentional weather modification or geoengineering to accelerating Earth-system-wide changes in temperature and weather patterns.

Beschreibung: Over the past 100 years, the collaborative effort of the international science community, including government weather services and the media, along with the associated proliferation of environmental observations, improved scientific understanding, and growth of technology, has radically transformed weather forecasting into an effective global and regional environmental prediction capability. This chapter traces the evolution of forecasting, starting in 1919 [when the American Meteorological Society (AMS) was founded], over four eras separated by breakpoints at 1939, 1956, and 1985. The current state of forecasting could not have been achieved without essential collaboration within and among countries in pursuing the common weather and Earth-system prediction challenge. AMS itself has had a strong role in enabling this international collaboration.

Beschreibung: The year 1919 was important in meteorology, not only because it was the year that the American Meteorological Society was founded, but also for two other reasons. One of the foundational papers in extratropical cyclone structure by Jakob Bjerknes was published in 1919, leading to what is now known as the Norwegian cyclone model. Also that year, a series of meetings was held that led to the formation of organizations that promoted the international collaboration and scientific exchange required for extratropical cyclone research, which by necessity involves spatial scales spanning national borders. This chapter describes the history of scientific inquiry into the structure, evolution, and dynamics of extratropical cyclones, their constituent fronts, and their attendant jet streams and storm tracks. We refer to these phenomena collectively as the centerpiece of meteorology because of their central role in fostering meteorological research during this century. This extremely productive period in extratropical cyclone research has been possible because of 1) the need to address practical challenges of poor forecasts that had large socioeconomic consequences, 2) the intermingling of theory, observations, and diagnosis (including dynamical modeling) to provide improved physical understanding and conceptual models, and 3) strong international cooperation. Conceptual frameworks for cyclones arise from a desire to classify and understand cyclones; they include the Norwegian cyclone model and its sister the Shapiro–Keyser cyclone model. The challenge of understanding the dynamics of cyclones led to such theoretical frameworks as quasigeostrophy, baroclinic instability, semigeostrophy, and frontogenesis. The challenge of predicting explosive extratropical cyclones in particular led to new theoretical developments such as potential-vorticity thinking and downstream development. Deeper appreciation of the limits of predictability has resulted from an evolution from determinism to chaos. Last, observational insights led to detailed cyclone and frontal structure, storm tracks, and rainbands.

Beschreibung: Mountains significantly influence weather and climate on Earth, including disturbed surface winds; altered distribution of precipitation; gravity waves reaching the upper atmosphere; and modified global patterns of storms, fronts, jet streams, and climate. All of these impacts arise because Earth’s mountains penetrate deeply into the atmosphere. This penetration can be quantified by comparing mountain heights to several atmospheric reference heights such as density scale height, water vapor scale height, airflow blocking height, and the height of natural atmospheric layers. The geometry of Earth’s terrain can be analyzed quantitatively using statistical, matrix, and spectral methods. In this review, we summarize how our understanding of orographic effects has progressed over 100 years using the equations for atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics, numerical modeling, and many clever in situ and remote sensing methods. We explore how mountains disturb the surface winds on our planet, including mountaintop winds, severe downslope winds, barrier jets, gap jets, wakes, thermally generated winds, and cold pools. We consider the variety of physical mechanisms by which mountains modify precipitation patterns in different climate zones. We discuss the vertical propagation of mountain waves through the troposphere into the stratosphere, mesosphere, and thermosphere. Finally, we look at how mountains distort the global-scale westerly winds that circle the poles and how varying ice sheets and mountain uplift and erosion over geologic time may have contributed to climate change.

Beschreibung: The stratosphere contains ~17% of Earth’s atmospheric mass, but its existence was unknown until 1902. In the following decades our knowledge grew gradually as more observations of the stratosphere were made. In 1913 the ozone layer, which protects life from harmful ultraviolet radiation, was discovered. From ozone and water vapor observations, a first basic idea of a stratospheric general circulation was put forward. Since the 1950s our knowledge of the stratosphere and mesosphere has expanded rapidly, and the importance of this region in the climate system has become clear. With more observations, several new stratospheric phenomena have been discovered: the quasi-biennial oscillation, sudden stratospheric warmings, the Southern Hemisphere ozone hole, and surface weather impacts of stratospheric variability. None of these phenomena were anticipated by theory. Advances in theory have more often than not been prompted by unexplained phenomena seen in new stratospheric observations. From the 1960s onward, the importance of dynamical processes and the coupled stratosphere–troposphere circulation was realized. Since approximately 2000, better representations of the stratosphere—and even the mesosphere—have been included in climate and weather forecasting models. We now know that in order to produce accurate seasonal weather forecasts, and to predict long-term changes in climate and the future evolution of the ozone layer, models with a well-resolved stratosphere with realistic dynamics and chemistry are necessary.

Beschreibung: Satellite meteorology is a relatively new branch of the atmospheric sciences. The field emerged in the late 1950s during the Cold War and built on the advances in rocketry after World War II. In less than 70 years, satellite observations have transformed the way scientists observe and study Earth. This paper discusses some of the key advances in our understanding of the energy and water cycles, weather forecasting, and atmospheric composition enabled by satellite observations. While progress truly has been an international achievement, in accord with a monograph observing the centennial of the American Meteorological Society, as well as limited space, the emphasis of this chapter is on the U.S. satellite effort.

Beschreibung: This chapter outlines the development of our understanding of several examples of mesoscale atmospheric circulations that are tied directly to surface forcings, starting from thermally driven variations over the ocean and progressing inland to man-made variations in temperature and roughness, and ending with forced boundary layer circulations. Examples include atmospheric responses to 1) overocean temperature variations, 2) coastlines (sea breezes), 3) mesoscale regions of inland water (lake-effect storms), and 4) variations in land-based surface usage (urban land cover). This chapter provides brief summaries of the historical evolution of, and tools for, understanding such mesoscale atmospheric circulations and their importance to the field, as well as physical processes responsible for initiating and determining their evolution. Some avenues of future research we see as critical are provided. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) has played a direct and important role in fostering the development of understanding mesoscale surface-forced circulations. The significance of AMS journal publications and conferences on this and interrelated atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrological fields, as well as those by sister scientific organizations, are demonstrated through extensive relevant citations.

Beschreibung: Although atmospheric observing systems were already an important part of meteorology before the American Meteorological Society was established in 1919, the past 100 years have seen a steady increase in their numbers and types. Examples of how observing systems were developed and how they have enabled major scientific discoveries are presented. These examples include observing systems associated with the boundary layer, the upper air, clouds and precipitation, and solar and terrestrial radiation. Widely used specialized observing systems such as radar, lidar, and research aircraft are discussed, and examples of applications to weather forecasting and climate are given. Examples drawn from specific types of chemical measurements, such as ozone and carbon dioxide, are included. Sources of information on observing systems, including other chapters of this monograph, are also discussed. The past 100 years has been characterized by synergism between societal needs for weather observations and the needs of fundamental meteorological research into atmospheric processes. In the latter half of the period, observing system improvements have been driven by the increasing demands for higher-resolution data for numerical models, the need for long-term measurements, and for more global coverage. This has resulted in a growing demand for data access and for integrating data from an increasingly wide variety of observing system types and networks. These trends will likely continue.

Beschreibung: The history of over 100 years of observing the ocean is reviewed. The evolution of particular classes of ocean measurements (e.g., shipboard hydrography, moorings, and drifting floats) are summarized along with some of the discoveries and dynamical understanding they made possible. By the 1970s, isolated and “expedition” observational approaches were evolving into experimental campaigns that covered large ocean areas and addressed multiscale phenomena using diverse instrumental suites and associated modeling and analysis teams. The Mid-Ocean Dynamics Experiment (MODE) addressed mesoscale “eddies” and their interaction with larger-scale currents using new ocean modeling and experiment design techniques and a suite of developing observational methods. Following MODE, new instrument networks were established to study processes that dominated ocean behavior in different regions. The Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere program gathered multiyear time series in the tropical Pacific to understand, and eventually predict, evolution of coupled ocean–atmosphere phenomena like El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) sought to quantify ocean transport throughout the global ocean using temperature, salinity, and other tracer measurements along with fewer direct velocity measurements with floats and moorings. Western and eastern boundary currents attracted comprehensive measurements, and various coastal regions, each with its unique scientific and societally important phenomena, became home to regional observing systems. Today, the trend toward networked observing arrays of many instrument types continues to be a productive way to understand and predict large-scale ocean phenomena.

Beschreibung: In situ observation networks and reanalyses products of the state of the atmosphere and upper ocean show well-defined, large-scale patterns of coupled climate variability on time scales ranging from seasons to several decades. We summarize these phenomena and their physics, which have been revealed by analysis of observations, by experimentation with uncoupled and coupled atmosphere and ocean models with a hierarchy of complexity, and by theoretical developments. We start with a discussion of the seasonal cycle in the equatorial tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, which are clearly affected by coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean. We then discuss the tropical phenomena that only exist because of the coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean: the Pacific and Atlantic meridional modes, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific, and a phenomenon analogous to ENSO in the Atlantic. For ENSO, we further discuss the sources of irregularity and asymmetry between warm and cold phases of ENSO, and the response of ENSO to forcing. Fundamental to variability on all time scales in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are preferred patterns of uncoupled atmospheric variability that exist independent of any changes in the state of the ocean, land, or distribution of sea ice. These patterns include the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), and the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern; they are most active in wintertime, with a temporal spectrum that is nearly white. Stochastic variability in the NPO, PNA, and NAO force the ocean on days to interannual times scales by way of turbulent heat exchange and Ekman transport, and on decadal and longer time scales by way of wind stress forcing. The PNA is partially responsible for the Pacific decadal oscillation; the NAO is responsible for an analogous phenomenon in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. In models, stochastic forcing by the NAO also gives rise to variability in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) that is partially responsible for multidecadal anomalies in the North Atlantic climate known as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO); observations do not yet exist to adequately determine the physics of the AMO. We review the progress that has been made in the past 50 years in understanding each of these phenomena and the implications for short-term (seasonal-to-interannual) climate forecasts. We end with a brief discussion of advances of things that are on the horizon, under the rug, and over the rainbow.

Beschreibung: s The history of severe thunderstorm research and forecasting over the past century has been a remarkable story involving interactions between technological development of observational and modeling capabilities, research into physical processes, and the forecasting of phenomena with the goal of reducing loss of life and property. Perhaps more so than any other field of meteorology, the relationship between researchers and forecasters has been particularly close in the severe thunderstorm domain, with both groups depending on improved observational capabilities. The advances that have been made have depended on observing systems that did not exist 100 years ago, particularly radar and upper-air systems. They have allowed scientists to observe storm behavior and structure and the environmental setting in which storms occur. This has led to improved understanding of processes, which in turn has allowed forecasters to use those same observational systems to improve forecasts. Because of the relatively rare and small-scale nature of many severe thunderstorm events, severe thunderstorm researchers have developed mobile instrumentation capabilities that have allowed them to collect high-quality observations in the vicinity of storms. Since much of the world is subject to severe thunderstorm hazards, research has taken place around the world, with the local emphasis dependent on what threats are perceived in that area, subject to the availability of resources to study the threat. Frequently, the topics of interest depend upon a single event, or a small number of events, of a particular kind that aroused public or economic interests in that area. International cooperation has been an important contributor to collecting and disseminating knowledge. As the AMS turns 100, the range of research relating to severe thunderstorms is expanding. The time scale of forecasting or projecting is increasing, with work going on to study forecasts on the seasonal to subseasonal time scales, as well as addressing how climate change may influence severe thunderstorms. With its roots in studying weather that impacts the public, severe thunderstorm research now includes significant work from the social science community, some as standalone research and some in active collaborative efforts with physical scientists. In addition, the traditional emphases of the field continue to grow. Improved radar and numerical modeling capabilities allow meteorologists to see and model details that were unobservable and not understood a half century ago. The long tradition of collecting observations in the field has led to improved quality and quantity of observations, as well as the capability to collect them in locations that were previously inaccessible. Much of that work has been driven by the gaps in understanding identified by theoretical and operational practice.

Beschreibung: Remarkable progress has occurred over the last 100 years in our understanding of atmospheric chemical composition, stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry, urban air pollution, acid rain, and the formation of airborne particles from gas-phase chemistry. Much of this progress was associated with the developing understanding of the formation and role of ozone and of the oxides of nitrogen, NO and NO2, in the stratosphere and troposphere. The chemistry of the stratosphere, emerging from the pioneering work of Chapman in 1931, was followed by the discovery of catalytic ozone cycles, ozone destruction by chlorofluorocarbons, and the polar ozone holes, work honored by the 1995 Nobel Prize in Chemistry awarded to Crutzen, Rowland, and Molina. Foundations for the modern understanding of tropospheric chemistry were laid in the 1950s and 1960s, stimulated by the eye-stinging smog in Los Angeles. The importance of the hydroxyl (OH) radical and its relationship to the oxides of nitrogen (NO and NO2) emerged. The chemical processes leading to acid rain were elucidated. The atmosphere contains an immense number of gas-phase organic compounds, a result of emissions from plants and animals, natural and anthropogenic combustion processes, emissions from oceans, and from the atmospheric oxidation of organics emitted into the atmosphere. Organic atmospheric particulate matter arises largely as gas-phase organic compounds undergo oxidation to yield low-volatility products that condense into the particle phase. A hundred years ago, quantitative theories of chemical reaction rates were nonexistent. Today, comprehensive computer codes are available for performing detailed calculations of chemical reaction rates and mechanisms for atmospheric reactions. Understanding the future role of atmospheric chemistry in climate change and, in turn, the impact of climate change on atmospheric chemistry, will be critical to developing effective policies to protect the planet.

Beschreibung: The polar regions present several unique challenges to meteorology, including remoteness and a harsh environment. We summarize the evolution of polar meteorology in both hemispheres, beginning with measurements made during early expeditions and concluding with the recent decades in which polar meteorology has been central to global challenges such as the ozone hole, weather prediction, and climate change. Whereas the 1800s and early 1900s provided data from expeditions and only a few subarctic stations, the past 100 years have seen great advances in the observational network and corresponding understanding of the meteorology of the polar regions. For example, a persistent view in the early twentieth century was of an Arctic Ocean dominated by a permanent high pressure cell, a glacial anticyclone. With increased observations, by the 1950s it became apparent that, while anticyclones are a common feature of the Arctic circulation, cyclones are frequent and may be found anywhere in the Arctic. Technology has benefited polar meteorology through advances in instrumentation, especially autonomously operated instruments. Moreover, satellite remote sensing and computer models revolutionized polar meteorology. We highlight the four International Polar Years and several high-latitude field programs of recent decades. We also note outstanding challenges, which include understanding of the role of the Arctic in variations of midlatitude weather and climate, the ability to model surface energy exchanges over a changing Arctic Ocean, assessments of ongoing and future trends in extreme events in polar regions, and the role of internal variability in multiyear-to-decadal variations of polar climate.

Beschreibung: The human population on Earth has increased by a factor of 4.6 in the last 100 years and has become more centered in urban environments. This expansion and migration pattern has resulted in stresses on the environment. Meteorological applications have helped to understand and mitigate those stresses. This chapter describes several applications that enable the population to interact with the environment in more sustainable ways. The first topic treated is urbanization itself and the types of stresses exerted by population growth and its attendant growth in urban landscapes—buildings and pavement—and how they modify airflow and create a local climate. We describe environmental impacts of these changes and implications for the future. The growing population uses increasing amounts of energy. Traditional sources of energy have taxed the environment, but the increase in renewable energy has used the atmosphere and hydrosphere as its fuel. Utilizing these variable renewable resources requires meteorological information to operate electric systems efficiently and economically while providing reliable power and minimizing environmental impacts. The growing human population also pollutes the environment. Thus, understanding and modeling the transport and dispersion of atmospheric contaminants are important steps toward regulating the pollution and mitigating impacts. This chapter describes how weather information can help to make surface transportation more safe and efficient. It is explained how these applications naturally require transdisciplinary collaboration to address these challenges caused by the expanding population.

Beschreibung: The field of atmospheric science has been enhanced by its long-standing collaboration with entities with specific needs. This chapter and the two subsequent ones describe how applications have worked to advance the science at the same time that the science has served the needs of society. This chapter briefly reviews the synergy between the applications and advancing the science. It specifically describes progress in weather modification, aviation weather, and applications for security. Each of these applications has resulted in enhanced understanding of the physics and dynamics of the atmosphere, new and improved observing equipment, better models, and a push for greater computing power.

Beschreibung: Over the past century, the atmospheric and related sciences have seen incredible advances in our understanding of Earth’s environment and our ability to monitor and predict its behavior. These advances have had a profound impact on society and have been integrated into every aspect of daily life. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) has been instrumental in supporting these advances throughout its first 100 years of existence as a scientific and professional society serving the community of professionals in the atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic sciences. AMS has provided opportunities for researchers and practitioners to share their scientific findings and build fruitful collaborations to further the science and its application. Through strategic initiatives at key points in its history, AMS has pushed the science forward—highlighting areas ripe for development, creating frameworks for interdisciplinary interactions, and providing innovative approaches to the dissemination of research results. As a society made up of the scientific community and led by many of the most prominent scientists of their time, AMS has been able to respond to, and often anticipate, the needs of its community.

Beschreibung: Applied meteorology is an important and rapidly growing field. This chapter concludes the three-chapter series of this monograph describing how meteorological information can be used to serve society’s needs while at the same time advancing our understanding of the basics of the science. This chapter continues along the lines of Part II of this series by discussing ways that meteorological and climate information can help to improve the output of the agriculture and food-security sector. It also discusses how agriculture alters climate and its long-term implications. It finally pulls together several of the applications discussed by treating the food–energy–water nexus. The remaining topics of this chapter are those that are advancing rapidly with more opportunities for observation and needs for prediction. The study of space weather is advancing our understanding of how the barrage of particles from other planetary bodies in the solar system impacts Earth’s atmosphere. Our ability to predict wildland fires by coupling atmospheric and fire-behavior models is beginning to impact decision-support systems for firefighters. Last, we examine how artificial intelligence is changing the way we predict, emulate, and optimize our meteorological variables and its potential to amplify our capabilities. Many of these advances are directly due to the rapid increase in observational data and computer power. The applications reviewed in this series of chapters are not comprehensive, but they will whet the reader’s appetite for learning more about how meteorology can make a concrete impact on the world’s population by enhancing access to resources, preserving the environment, and feeding back into a better understanding how the pieces of the environmental system interact.

Beschreibung: Some of the advances of the past century in our understanding of the general circulation of the atmosphere are described, starting with a brief summary of some of the key developments from the first half of the twentieth century, but with a primary focus on the period beginning with the midcentury breakthrough in baroclinic instability and quasigeostrophic dynamics. In addition to baroclinic instability, topics touched upon include the following: stationary wave theory, the role played by the two-layer model, scaling arguments for the eddy heat flux, the subtlety of large-scale eddy momentum fluxes, the Eliassen–Palm flux and the transformed Eulerian mean formulation, the structure of storm tracks, and the controls on the Hadley cell.

Beschreibung: Over the last 100 years, boundary layer meteorology grew from the subject of mostly near-surface observations to a field encompassing diverse atmospheric boundary layers (ABLs) around the world. From the start, researchers drew from an ever-expanding set of disciplines—thermodynamics, soil and plant studies, fluid dynamics and turbulence, cloud microphysics, and aerosol studies. Research expanded upward to include the entire ABL in response to the need to know how particles and trace gases dispersed, and later how to represent the ABL in numerical models of weather and climate (starting in the 1970s–80s); taking advantage of the opportunities afforded by the development of large-eddy simulations (1970s), direct numerical simulations (1990s), and a host of instruments to sample the boundary layer in situ and remotely from the surface, the air, and space. Near-surface flux-profile relationships were developed rapidly between the 1940s and 1970s, when rapid progress shifted to the fair-weather convective boundary layer (CBL), though tropical CBL studies date back to the 1940s. In the 1980s, ABL research began to include the interaction of the ABL with the surface and clouds, the first ABL parameterization schemes emerged; and land surface and ocean surface model development blossomed. Research in subsequent decades has focused on more complex ABLs, often identified by shortcomings or uncertainties in weather and climate models, including the stable boundary layer, the Arctic boundary layer, cloudy boundary layers, and ABLs over heterogeneous surfaces (including cities). The paper closes with a brief summary, some lessons learned, and a look to the future.

Beschreibung: The development of the technologies of remote sensing of the ocean was initiated in the 1970s, while the ideas of observing the ocean from space were conceived in the late 1960s. The first global view from space revealed the expanse and complexity of the state of the ocean that had perplexed and inspired oceanographers ever since. This paper presents a glimpse of the vast progress made from ocean remote sensing in the past 50 years that has a profound impact on the ways we study the ocean in relation to weather and climate. The new view from space in conjunction with the deployment of an unprecedented amount of in situ observations of the ocean has led to a revolution in physical oceanography. The highlights of the achievement include the description and understanding of the global ocean circulation, the air–sea fluxes driving the coupled ocean–atmosphere system that is most prominently illustrated in the tropical oceans. The polar oceans are most sensitive to climate change with significant consequences, but owing to remoteness they were not accessible until the space age. Fundamental discoveries have been made on the evolution of the state of sea ice as well as the circulation of the ice-covered ocean. Many surprises emerged from the extraordinary accuracy and expanse of the space observations. Notable examples include the determination of the global mean sea level rise as well as the role of the deep ocean in tidal mixing and dissipation.

Beschreibung: A century ago, meteorologists regarded tropical cyclones as shallow vortices, extending upward only a few kilometers into the troposphere, and nothing was known about their physics save that convection was somehow involved. As recently as 1938, a major hurricane struck the densely populated northeastern United States with no warning whatsoever, killing hundreds. In the time since the American Meteorological Society was founded, however, tropical cyclone research blossomed into an endeavor of great breadth and depth, encompassing fields ranging from atmospheric and oceanic dynamics to biogeochemistry, and the precision and scope of forecasts and warnings have achieved a level of success that would have been regarded as impossible only a few decades ago. This chapter attempts to document the extraordinary progress in tropical cyclone research over the last century and to suggest some avenues for productive research over the next one.

Beschreibung: Publication date: September 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Volume 4, Part B Author(s): Alberto Pistocchi, Costanza Calzolari, Francesco Malucelli, Fabrizio Ungaro Study region The plains of Emilia Romagna, Italy. Study focus Urban expansion is among the main causes of increase in flood frequency and intensity in small rural catchments in Europe, and our study region is paradigmatic in this respect. We present here a regional screening-level assessment of soil sealing impacts in terms of increased flood peak discharges and flooding volumes on the secondary drainage network of the plains. We estimate flood peak discharges and flooding volumes through a simple kinematic model with runoff coefficients for the land use of 2008 and 1976. Additionally, we calculate an equivalent compensatory flood detention volume that would enable preserving flood peak discharges as prior to soil sealing (principle of “hydraulic invariance”). The proposed approach is simple and readily applicable to any region facing similar issues, for screening-level assessment of flood hazards over an extended stream network. New hydrological insights for the region The analysis highlights a significant increase in flood hazards throughout the secondary stream network. The impact. Widespread and relatively uniform, is more apparent in smaller catchments and in the case of more permeable soils. This demands retrofitting of the majority of the drainage network and/or significantly higher costs from flooding damages. The analysis suggests that costs of additional flooding after soil sealing may be higher than those of soil sealing impacts compensation through flood detention (hydraulic invariance).

Beschreibung: Publication date: September 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Volume 4, Part B Author(s): M.A. Sarr, O. Seidou, Y. Tramblay, S. El Adlouni Study region The study considers six precipitation stations located in Senegal, West Africa. Senegal is located in the Sahel, an area that is threatened by climate variability and change. Both droughts and extreme rainfall have been an issue in recent years. Study focus Two different statistical downscaling techniques were applied to the outputs of four regional climate models at six selected precipitation stations in Senegal. First, the delta-change method was applied to the mean annual precipitation as well as the 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100-year return period daily precipitation events. Second, a quantile–quantile transformation (QQ) was used to downscale the monthly distributions of precipitation simulated by regional climate models (RCMs). The 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100-year daily precipitation events were afterward calculated. All extreme events were calculated assuming that maximum annual daily precipitations follow the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The two-sided Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test was finally used to assess the performance of the quantile–quantile transformation as well as the GEV distribution fit for the annual maximum daily precipitation. New hydrological insights for the region Results show that the two downscaling techniques generally agree on the direction of the change when applied to the outputs of same RCM, but some cases lead to very different projections of the direction and magnitude of the change. Projected changes indicate a decline in mean precipitation except for one RCM over one region in Senegal. Projected changes in extreme precipitations are not consistent across stations and return periods. The choice of the downscaling technique has more effect on the estimation of extreme daily precipitations of return period equal or greater than ten years than the choice of the climate models.

Beschreibung: Publication date: September 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Volume 4, Part B Author(s): J.S. Lessels, T.F.A. Bishop Study region South eastern Australia. Study focus This region is characterised with rainfall events that are associated with large exports of nutrients and sediments. Many water quality monitoring schemes use a form of event-based sampling to quantify these exports. Previous water quality studies that have evaluated different sampling schemes often rely on continuously monitored water quality data. However, many catchment authorities only have access to limited historical data which consists of event-based and monthly routine samples. Therefore there is a need to develop a method that assesses the importance of sampling events using information from limited historical data. This work presents a simulation based approach using unconditional simulation based on historical stream discharge. Such an approach offers site-specific information on optimal sampling schemes. A linear mixed model is used to model the relationship between total phosphorus and stream discharge and the auto-correlation of total phosphorus. New hydrological insights for the region The inclusion of event-based sampling improved annual load estimates of all sites with a maximum RMSE difference of 16.11 tonnes between event-based and routine sampling. Based on the accuracy of annual loads, event-based sampling was found to be more important in catchments with a large relief and high annual rainfall in this region. Using this approach, different sampling schemes can be compared based on limited historical data.

Beschreibung: Publication date: September 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Volume 4, Part B Author(s): Hayet Chihi, Ghislain de Marsily, Habib Belayouni, Houcine Yahyaoui Study region “Jeffara de Medenine” aquifer system in south-eastern Tunisia. Study focus This study investigates the role of fault structures in the distribution of hydrogeochemical facies and groundwater compartmentalization for the aquifer system. New hydrological insights for the region The proposed methodology, including seismic structural study, hierarchical cluster analysis and geostatistical methods, allowed an efficient multi-element characterization of the spatial patterns of the structural elements in the aquifers and of the hydrogeological parameters used in a spatial cross-correlation to explore the dependence of the geochemical properties in each “geochemical population” on the hosting structural compartment to delineate the different geochemical compartments. The tectonic studies showed that the lateral extent of the aquifers is controlled by normal faults. The multivariate statistical analysis revealed a strong spatial coherence between hydrogeochemical facies clustering and the reservoir compartments at both large and small scales. The kriged maps of major-ion concentrations and of total dissolved solids in the aquifers were then analyzed and compared with the reservoir facies distribution for each compartment, the geometric characteristics of the aquifer, and the piezometric level trends. This allowed to characterize the hydraulic behavior of the Medenine fault and to understand the underlying physical and chemical processes having led to the spatial distribution of the geochemical properties, and thus, the hydrogeochemical functioning of the aquifers.

Beschreibung: Publication date: September 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Volume 4, Part B Author(s): Marnie L. Atkins, Isaac R. Santos, Damien T. Maher Study region This study investigates dissolved methane distribution in groundwater from the Richmond River Catchment (New South Wales, Australia) before proposed coal seam gas (CSG, or coal bed methane) development. Study focus Unconventional gas exploration has rapidly expanded in recent years. However, the impact of these operations on groundwater systems is poorly understood. A total of 91 groundwater samples were analyzed from 6 geological units. Our observations act as regional baseline research prior to CSG extraction and may assist with long term impact assessment. New hydrological insights for the region Methane was found in all geological units ranging between 0.26 and 4427 μg L −1 (median 10.68 μg L −1 ). Median methane concentrations were highest in chloride-type groundwater (13.26 μg L −1 , n = 58) while bicarbonate-type groundwater had lower concentrations (3.71 μg L −1 ). Groundwater from alluvial sediments had significantly higher median methane concentrations (91.46 μg L −1 ) than groundwater from both the basalt aquifers (0.7 μg L −1 ) and bedrock aquifers (4.63 μg L −1 ); indicating geology was a major driver of methane distribution. Methane carbon stable isotope ratios ranged from –90.9‰ to –29.5‰, suggesting a biogenic origin with some methane oxidation. No significant correlations were observed between methane concentrations and redox indicators (nitrate, manganese, iron and sulphate) except between iron and methane in the Lismore Basalt ( r 2 = 0.66, p 〈 0.001), implying redox conditions were not the main predictor of methane distribution.

Beschreibung: Publication date: September 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Volume 4, Part B Author(s): Z. Zomlot, B. Verbeiren, M. Huysmans, O. Batelaan Study focus Groundwater is of strategic importance. The accurate estimation of groundwater recharge and assessing the fundamental controlling factors are therefore of utmost importance to protect groundwater systems. We used the spatially-distributed water-balance model WetSpass to estimate long-term average recharge in Flanders. We validated recharge rates with base flow estimates of 67 daily stream flow records using the hydrograph analyses. To this end we performed principal component analysis, multiple linear regression analysis and relative importance analysis to assess the controlling factors of the spatial variation of recharge and base flow with the influencing watershed characteristics. New hydrological insights for the region The average resulting recharge is 235 mm/year and occurs mainly in winter. The overall moderate correlation between base flow estimates and modeled recharge rates indicates that base flow is a reasonable proxy of recharge. Groundwater recharge variation was explained in order of importance by precipitation, soil texture and vegetation cover; while base flow variation was strongly controlled by vegetation cover and groundwater depth. The results of this study highlight the important role of spatial variables in estimation of recharge and base flow. In addition, the prominent role of vegetation makes clear the potential importance of land-use changes on recharge and hence the need to include a proper strategy for land-use change in sustainable management of groundwater resources.

Beschreibung: Publication date: September 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Volume 4, Part B Author(s): B. Ibrahim, D. Wisser, B. Barry, T. Fowe, A. Aduna Study region Hydrological observation networks in the West African region are not dense and reliable. Furthermore, the few available discharge data often present significant gaps. The Volta basin, the second largest transboundary basin in the region, is a typical example of a basin with inadequate hydrological networks. Study focus In this study, a prediction approach to determine monthly discharge in ungauged watersheds is developed. The approach is based on the calibration of two conceptual models for gauged watersheds and an estimation of models’ parameters from the physical and climatic characteristics of the watersheds. The models’ parameters were determined for each ungauged watershed through two different methods: the multiple linear regressions and the kriging method. The two methods were first validated on five gauged watersheds and then applied to the three ungauged watersheds. New hydrological insights for the region The application of the two hydrological models on the eight watersheds helped to produce relevant monthly runoff and to establish the annual hydrological balances from 1970 to 2000 for both gauged and ungauged watersheds. The developed method in this study could therefore help estimate runoff time series, which are of crucial importance when it comes to design hydraulic structures such as small reservoirs.

Beschreibung: Publication date: Available online 14 August 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Author(s): Mayank Shekhar, Amalava Bhattacharyya Study region Zemu Chuu (river), Lachen, North Sikkim, Eastern Himalaya India. Study focus Using tree-ring data of fir ( Abies densa ) the temporal variation of 222 years January–April mean discharge of Zemu Chuu, upper reaches of the Teesta River at Lachen, North Sikkim Eastern Himalaya was investigated. This was based on linear regression reconstruction model which explained variance of 50.1% during calibration period (AD 1976–1996). The model was verified by reduction of error (RE), sign test (ST), product mean test (Pmt), root mean square error (RMSE) and Durbin–Watson test (DW). The RE never falls below zero suggesting the model had explanatory power over the entire period of reconstruction. New hydrological insights for the region The explored strong relationship between tree ring records and instrumental data enable to develop mean January–April months (premonsoon) river discharge of Zemu Chuu from remote area of Sikkim. Reconstructed data reveals high stream-flow when it is more than the mean plus one standard deviation and as low when flow is less than the mean minus one standard deviation. There were such 23 high discharge and 21 extremely low years over the past AD 1775–1996. This premonsoon reconstruction of river flow would be of great significance when scarcity of water is acute in the North East Himalaya.

Beschreibung: Publication date: September 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Volume 4, Part B Author(s): Jonathan A. Warrick, John M. Melack, Blair M. Goodridge Study region Coastal watersheds of southern California, United States. Study focus We sought to better understand the rates and variability of suspended-sediment discharge from small coastal watersheds (〈100 km 2 ) of California. Suspended-sediment concentrations and stream discharge were measured with automated samplers near the mouths of four small watersheds (10–56 km 2 ). New hydrological insights for the region The watersheds were found to have suspended-sediment concentrations that extended over five orders of magnitude (1 to over 100,000 mg L −1 ). Sediment concentrations were weakly correlated with discharge ( r 2 = 0.10–0.25), and four types of hysteresis patterns were observed during high flow events (clockwise, counterclockwise, no hysteresis, and complex). Annual sediment yields varied by 400-fold across the four watersheds (e.g., 5–2100 t km −2 yr −1 during the 2003–2006 water years), and sediment discharge was measurably elevated in one watershed that was partially burned by a late summer wildfire. Dozens of high flow events provided evidence that suspended-sediment yields were generally related to peak stream discharge and event-based precipitation, although these relationships were not consistent across the watersheds. This suggests that watersheds smaller than 100 km 2 can provide large – and therefore important – fluxes of sediment to the coast, but that simple techniques to estimate sediment loads, such as sediment rating curves, hydrologic regressions, and extrapolation using global sediment yield relationships that include watershed area as a primary factor, may provide poor results. Graphical abstract

Beschreibung: Publication date: September 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Volume 4, Part B Author(s): Chris C. Gianfagna, Chris E. Johnson, David G. Chandler, Charlie Hofmann Study region The Catskills region of New York State is largely forested and dominated hydrologically by stream watersheds with few natural lakes. The area experiences intensive water resources management and ecosystem monitoring due to its strategic role as the principal water supply for New York City. Study focus We analyzed average daily flows in nested and non-nested pairs of gaged watersheds in the Catskills to assess whether daily flow in ungaged watersheds can be calculated based on watershed area ratios. New hydrological insights for the region Watershed area ratio was the most important basin parameter for estimating flow at upstream sites based on downstream flow. The area ratio alone explained 93% of the variance in the slopes of relationships between upstream and downstream flows. Regression analysis indicated that flow at any upstream point can be estimated by multiplying the flow at a downstream reference gage by the watershed area ratio. This method accurately predicted upstream flows at area ratios as low as 0.005. We also observed a very strong relationship ( R 2 = 0.79) between area ratio and flow–flow slopes in non-nested catchments. Our results indicate that a simple flow estimation method based on watershed area ratios is justifiable, and indeed preferred, for the estimation of daily streamflow in ungaged watersheds in the Catskills region.

Beschreibung: Publication date: September 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Volume 4, Part B Author(s): Alfonso Rivera Study region Canada–USA border. Study focus Since 2005, Canada has followed international developments in transboundary groundwater issues in cooperation with its southern neighbor the United States (USA) within the Internationally Shared Aquifer Resources Management Initiative (ISARM) of UNESCO. As a result, 10 Transboundary Aquifer Systems (TAS) were identified along the border between Canada and the USA. This study is an extensive review of the current state of the 10 TAS. Documentation of scientifically-based knowledge on TAS is an important step in identifying potential issues in policies that might be adopted to address shared water-resource issues. New hydrological insights for the region This analysis emphasizes the need for more scientific data, widespread education and training, and a more clearly defined governments’ role to manage groundwater at the international level. The study reviews the current legal framework and summarises the current scientific knowledge for the TAS with respect to the hydrologic and geologic framework as well as some of the major drivers for supply and demand. It also describes the links, approach and relevance of studies on the TAS to the UN Law of Transboundary Aquifers and on how these might fit in the regional strategy for the assessment and management of the TAS. Clear communication, shared knowledge and common objectives in the management of TAS will prepare the countries for future negotiations and cooperative binational programs.

Beschreibung: Publication date: September 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Volume 4, Part B Author(s): Brioch Hemmings, Daren Gooddy, Fiona Whitaker, W. George Darling, Alia Jasim, Joachim Gottsmann Study region Montserrat, Lesser Antilles, Caribbean. Study focus Analysis of δ 2 H and δ 18 O isotopes, and chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) anthropogenic tracers in Montserrat groundwater provides insights into the age and provenance of the spring waters. New hydrological insights δ 2 H and δ 18 O analysis indicates uniform recharge elevations for groundwaters on Montserrat. CFC-11 and CFC-12 analysis reveals age differences between isotopically similar, high elevation springs and low elevation aquifer waters. Low CFC concentrations within a confined low elevation aquifer suggest water ages of ∼45 years. High CFC concentrations in the northern and western springs are explained by rapid infiltration of cool (high CFC concentration) rainfall into saturated compartments, with flow through the vadose zone to the phreatic zone dominated by compartment flow. Lower CFC concentrations in a number of aligned warmer springs suggest a contribution from older, warmer waters from depth. Temperatures and CFC concentrations indicate older component supply rates of up to 8 L/s to the highest yielding spring on Centre Hills, with contributions of up to 75% in the warmest spring waters.

Beschreibung: Publication date: March 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Volume 3, Supplement 1

Beschreibung: Publication date: March 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Volume 3, Supplement 1

Beschreibung: Publication date: March 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Volume 3, Supplement 1

Beschreibung: Publication date: March 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Volume 3, Supplement 1

Beschreibung: Publication date: Available online 3 April 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Author(s): A. Shahul Hameed , T.R. Resmi , S. Suraj , C. Unnikrishnan Warrier , M. Sudheesh , R.D. Deshpande Study region The Chaliyar river basin, Kerala State, India. Study focus Detailed understanding about spatio-temporal variation in the interaction and exchange of water between surface and sub-surface reservoirs is important for effective watershed management. Spatio-temporal variations in the oxygen isotopic composition ( δ 18 O) were used to understand the interaction between groundwater and river water, and to estimate the groundwater recharge from river water in the Chaliyar river basin. New hydrological insights for the region Based on the spatio-temporal variation in δ 18 O values of river and groundwater and fluctuation in ground water levels, following important inferences are made: (1) estimated river water contribution to post-monsoon groundwater recharge is ∼16% in the lowland coastal area of the Chaliyar river basin and 29% in midland region; (2) northeast winter monsoon rains contribute to the groundwater of Chaliyar river basin only in an insignificant manner, and with a delayed response; (3) unlike river water samples which exhibit both seasonal and spatial variation of more than 3‰, the groundwater samples vary only marginally (∼1‰) between the seasons and across the physiographic zones; (4) groundwater samples exhibit inverse altitude gradient in δ 18 O values in the highland zone, in all the three seasons. This may be due to flow of the isotopically depleted groundwater down the gradient and evaporation of residual water in the upper reaches of the basin.

Beschreibung: Publication date: March 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Volume 3, Supplement 1 Author(s): Ashish Sharma

Beschreibung: Publication date: Available online 16 May 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Author(s): E.H. Elias , A. Rango , C.M. Steele , J.F. Mejia , R. Smith Study region Upper Rio Grande, Colorado and New Mexico, USA. Study focus Climate change is predicted to further limit the water availability of the arid southwestern U.S. We use the snowmelt runoff model to evaluate impacts of climate change on snow covered area (SCA), streamflow timing and runoff volume. Simulations investigate four future conditions using models downscaled to existing climate stations. Twenty-four subbasins of the Upper Rio Grande containing appreciable snowmelt and a long-term gauging station are simulated. New hydrological insights for the region Future annual volume is 193–204 million m 3 more to 448–476 million m 3 less than the pre-climate change value of 2688 million m 3 . There is disparity between increased volume in wetter simulations (+7%) and decreased volume (−18%) in drier simulations. SCA on 1 April reduced by approximately 50% in all but the warmer/wetter climate. Peak flow is 14–24 days early in the future climates. Among the 24 subbasins there is considerable range in mean melt season SCA (−40% to −100%), total volume change (−30% to +57%) and runoff timing advancement indicating that climate change is best evaluated at the subbasin scale. Daily hydrographs show higher streamflow in March and April, but less from mid-May until the end of the water year. The large decrease in volume in May, June and July will compound water management challenges in the region.

Beschreibung: Publication date: March 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Volume 3, Supplement 1 Author(s): Mohammad Kamruzzaman

Beschreibung: Publication date: March 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Volume 3, Supplement 1

Beschreibung: Publication date: March 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Volume 3, Supplement 1

Beschreibung: Publication date: March 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Volume 3 Author(s): Jean-Michel Lemieux , Jalil Hassaoui , John Molson , René Therrien , Pierre Therrien , Michel Chouteau , Michel Ouellet Study region This study is conducted in the Magdalen Islands (Québec, Canada), a small archipelago located in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Study focus This work was undertaken to support the design of a long-term groundwater monitoring network and for the sustainable management of groundwater resources. This study relies mostly on the compilation of existing data, but additional field work has also been carried out, allowing for the first time in the Magdalen Islands, direct observation of the depth and shape of the transition zone between freshwater and seawater under natural conditions. Simulations were conducted along a 2D cross-section on Grande Entrée Island in order to assess the individual and combined impacts of sea-level rise, coastal erosion and decreased groundwater recharge on the position of the saltwater–freshwater interface. The simulations were performed considering variable-density flow and solute transport under saturated-unsaturated conditions. The model was driven by observed and projected climate change scenarios to 2040 for the Magdalen Islands. New hydrological insights for the region The simulation results show that among the three impacts considered, the most important is sea-level rise, followed by decreasing groundwater recharge and coastal erosion. When combined, these impacts cause the saltwater–freshwater interface to migrate inland over a distance of 37 m and to rise by 6.5 m near the coast to 3.1 m further inland, over a 28-year period.

Beschreibung: Publication date: March 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Volume 3 Author(s): M.A. Pascolini-Campbell , Richard Seager , David S. Gutzler , Benjamin I. Cook , Daniel Griffin Study region The Gila River, New Mexico, is characterized by two peaks in streamflow: one in the winter–spring (December–May), and summer (August–September). The region is influenced both by Pacific SST variability as well as the North American Monsoon. Study focus The mechanisms responsible for the variability of the winter–spring and summer streamflow peaks are investigated by correlation of streamflow with precipitation and sea surface temperature for 1928–2012. Decadal variability in the flow record is examined for a longer term perspective on Gila River streamflow using tree ring-based reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). New hydrological insights for the region Results indicate a strong influence of winter–spring precipitation and Pacific SST anomalies on the winter–spring streamflow, with El Niño conditions in the Pacific causing increased precipitation and streamflow. Decadal Pacific variability helps explain the transition from high winter flow in the late 20th century to lower flows in the most recent decade. The summer streamflow has a somewhat weaker correlation with precipitation and Pacific SST than the winter–spring streamflow. Its variability is more likely influenced by local North American Monsoon precipitation variability. PDSI and SPI reconstructions indicate much more severe and extended periods of droughts and pluvials in past centuries as well as periods of concurrent winter and summer drought.

Beschreibung: Publication date: March 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Volume 3 Author(s): Tsou Jaw , Jialun Li , Kuo-lin Hsu , Soroosh Sorooshian , Fatima Driouech Study region Morocco (excluding Western Sahara). Study focus This study evaluated Moroccan precipitation, dynamically downscaled (0.18-degree) from three runs of the studied GCM ECHAM5/MPI-OM, under the present-day (1971–2000/20C3M) and future (2036–2065/A1B) climate scenarios. The spatial and quantitative properties of the downscaled precipitation were evaluated by a verified, fine-resolution reference. The effectiveness of the hydrologic responses, driven by the downscaled precipitation, was further evaluated for the study region over the upstream watershed of Oum er Rbia River located in Central Morocco. New hydrological insights for the region The raw downscaling runs reasonably featured the spatial properties but quantitatively misrepresented the mean and extreme intensities of present-day precipitation. Two proposed bias correction approaches, namely stationary Quantile-Mapping (QM) and non-stationary Equidistant CDF Matching model (EDCDFm), successfully reduced the system biases existing in the raw downscaling runs. However, both raw and corrected runs projected great diversity in terms of the quantity of future precipitation. Hydrologic simulations performed by a well-calibrated Variable Infiltration Capacity model successfully reproduced the present-day streamflow. The driven flows were identified highly correlated with the effectiveness of the downscaled precipitation. The future flows were projected to be markedly diverse, mainly due to the varied precipitation projections. Two of the three flow simulation runs projected slight to severe drying scenarios, while another projected an opposite trend for the evaluated future period.

Beschreibung: Publication date: March 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Volume 3 Author(s): Megersa Olumana Dinka , Willibald Loiskandl , Julius Musyoka Ndambuki Study region The Matahara region is located in the East Showa zone of Oromiya regional state (Ethiopia). Matahra Sugar Estate and Lake Basaka (highly saline, alkaline and sodic lake) are situated within the flat plains of Matahara region. The area is vulnerable to the occurrences of various tectonic and volcanic activities due to its location in the upper most part of the Main Ethiopian Rift Valley region. Study focus In this study, the hydrochemical properties of different surface water and groundwater bodies available at Matahara region have been characterized for quality compositions. Water samples were collected from different water sources and analyzed for important major quality parameters following standard test procedures. Other chemical indices were derived from the measured quality parameters. The potential sources of minerals were suggested for each of the considered water sources based on their quality characteristics. New hydrological insights for the region Overall, the study result elucidates that the chemical composition of different water bodies are due to natural processes and/or anthropogenic activities within the region. The local anthropogenic processes could be discharges from factory, domestic sewage and farming activities. Some of the water types are found to have relatively higher concentration of dissolved constituents. Irrigation waters have almost equal chemical compositions, indicating their hydrochemical sources are almost the same. Most of the concentrations are relatively high in Lake Basaka, groundwater and hot springs. It is easy to imagine the potential damaging effects of such quality waters on crop production, soil properties and environment of the region.

Beschreibung: Publication date: March 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Volume 3 Author(s): Julianne Hagarty , David Azanu , Bernadette Atosona , Ray Voegborlo , Erica A.H. Smithwick , Kamini Singha Study region Buruli ulcer, an emerging disease caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans , largely affects poor rural populations in tropical countries. The environmental niche that supports this necrotizing bacterium is unclear. Here, water samples were collected from five communities within Ghana in the rainy season in 2011: four in the southern part of Ghana (three disease-endemic communities: Pokukrom, Betenase, and Ayanfuri, and one control: Kedadwen) and one non-endemic community (Nangruma) in the north. Study focus Past studies of Buruli ulcer conclude that water quality is, in some way, closely related to the transmission of this disease. This work serves as a first step to explore links between Buruli ulcer incidence and water quality. More broadly, this research works toward identifying the environmental niche for M. ulcerans , providing characterization of water bodies hazardous to human health in at-risk communities. New hydrological insights Trace metals, thought to aid in the preferential growth of M. ulcerans , are present in higher concentrations in mining pits and stagnant pools than in other tested water bodies. Arsenic in particular could serve as a double threat for BU incidence: it could support the growth of M. ulcerans while suppressing immune systems, making the population more susceptible to disease. Few other differences between endemic and non-endemic communities exist, implying other variables such as human behavior may also control the onset of Buruli ulcer.

Beschreibung: Publication date: Available online 18 April 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Author(s): Fabrice Papa , Frédéric Frappart , Yoann Malbeteau , Mohammad Shamsudduha , Venugopal Vuruputur , Muddu Sekhar , Guillaume Ramillien , Catherine Prigent , Filipe Aires , Rajesh Kumar Pandey , Sujit Bala , Stephane Calmant Study region The Ganges–Brahmaputra (GB), a major river basin of the Indian Sub-Continent (ISC), is the host of more than 700 millions people. Study focus In addition to monsoons and strong climate variability, GB is facing growing demands for freshwater availability by a continually growing population and rapidly developing of agricultural and industrial sectors. The management of water resources is thus of highest priority and, in the context of current over-abstraction of groundwater, accurate estimates of terrestrial freshwater storage are essential. We propose a multi-satellite approach to estimate surface freshwater storage (SWS) and subsurface water storage (SSWS, groundwater + soil moisture) variations over GB. New hydrological insights Basin-scale monthly SWS variations for the period 2003–2007 show a mean annual amplitude of ∼410 km 3 , contributing to about 45% of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE)-derived total water storage variations (TWS). During the drought-like conditions in 2006, we estimate that the SWS deficit over the entire GB basin in July–August–September was about 30% as compared to other years. The SWS variations are then used to decompose the GB GRACE-derived TWS and isolate the variations of SSWS whose mean annual amplitude is estimated to be ∼550 km 3 . This new dataset of water storage variations represent an unprecedented source of information for hydrological and climate modeling studies of the ISC.

Beschreibung: Publication date: Available online 7 April 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Author(s): Swati Verma , Abhijit Mukherjee , Runti Choudhury , Chandan Mahanta Study region Brahmaputra River basin, India. Study focus The present study deciphers the groundwater solute chemistry and arsenic (As) enrichment in the shallow aquifers of the study region. Four different geomorphologic units, e.g. piedmont (PD), older alluvium of river Brahmaputra and its tributaries (OA), active alluvium of river Brahmaputra and its tributaries (YA) and river channel deposits (RCD) were identified. More than 62% of all groundwater samples collected have dissolved As >0.01 mg/L, whereas about 87% of groundwater samples in OA terrain are enriched with As, which draws a distinct difference from the adjoining Gangetic aquifers. New hydrological insights for the region Most groundwater solutes of RCD and YA terrains were derived from both silicate weathering and carbonate dissolution, while silicate weathering process dominates the solute contribution in OA groundwater. Groundwater samples from all terrains are postoxic with mean pe values between Fe(III) and As(V)–As(III) reductive transition. While, reductive dissolution of (Fe–Mn)OOH is the dominant mechanism of As mobilization in RCD and YA aquifers, As in OA and PD aquifers could be mobilized by combined effect of pH dependent sorption and competitive ion exchange. The present study focuses on the major ion chemistry as well as the chemistry of the redox sensitive solutes of the groundwater in different geomorphic settings and their links to arsenic mobilization in groundwater.

Beschreibung: Publication date: Available online 11 March 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Author(s): B.M. Hallett , H.A. Dharmagunawardhane , S. Atal , E. Valsami-Jones , S. Ahmed , W.G. Burgess Study region The Maheshwaram and Waipally catchments of Andhra Pradesh, India, and the Plonnaruwa catchment of north-central Sri Lanka. Study focus The distribution of F across eight crystalline phases and between the bedrock and the regolith at eleven sites in three catchments is documented. Mineral contributions to F release during weathering and regolith development are quantified. New hydrological insights for the region An estimate of weathering duration for the in situ regolith in Andhra Pradesh, 250–380 Ka, is close to a previous estimate for southern India. Partial or total destruction of the primary F-bearing bedrock minerals and consistent depletion of F in the remnant minerals result in a much reduced total F content in the regolith. Leaching experiments and field relationships, however, indicate a greater potential for F mobilisation to groundwater from the regolith than the bedrock. Schemes for managed aquifer recharge should beware the risk of mobilising additional F to groundwater.

Beschreibung: Publication date: March 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Volume 3, Supplement 1 Author(s): Salah Er-Raki

Beschreibung: Publication date: Available online 10 December 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Author(s): Tatsuya Utsunomiya, Masaki Hata, Ryo Sugimoto, Hisami Honda, Shiho Kobayashi, Yoji Miyata, Makoto Yamada, Osamu Tominaga, Jun Shoji, Makoto Taniguchi Study focus There have been far more studies on how the variability in surface water discharge affects production of animal communities in aquatic ecosystems while less information has been accumulated on the mechanisms of how the groundwater supply works. Study region Physical and biological surveys were conducted to test the hypothesis that high level of submarine ground water discharge enhances species richness, abundance and biomass of fishes and invertebrates in coastal waters of Obama Bay, Japan, where a high contribution of nutrients (ca. 65% of phosphorus) to total provided through all freshwater has been reported. Survey for horizontal distribution of radon-222 ( 222 Rn) concentration showed high levels of submarine groundwater discharge in the west part of survey area. Fish and invertebrate communities were compared within a relatively small spatial scale (ca. 100 m) in relation to level of submarine groundwater discharge. New hydrological insights Species richness, abundance and biomass of fishes and abundance and biomass of turban snail and hermit crab were significantly higher in the area with high 222 Rn concentration. Abundance of gammarids, the most major prey item of the fishes, was 18 times higher in the area with high 222 Rn concentration. Since the turban snail, hermit crab and gammarids feed on producers (phytoplankton and benthic microalgae), submarine groundwater are concluded to increase species richness and production of fishes and invertebrates through providing nutrients and enhancing primary production.

Beschreibung: Publication date: March 2016 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Volume 5 Author(s): A.C. de la Casa, G.G. Ovando Study region Changes in reference evapotranspiration (ET o ) may have important consequences for agricultural suitability in the central region of Argentina. Annual ET o variation was assessed, in terms of both territory and time, for the 7 decades between 1941 and 2010, analyzing the behavior of the 4 atmospheric variables which determine it: temperature, vapor pressure, wind speed and cloud cover. Study focus The influence of each variable on ET o was evaluated from a multiple regression model and a simple correlation analysis, using climate data from the observation network, and repeating this analysis using interpolated variables. In this grid scheme, linear relationships were determined between ET o and the different key atmospheric variables, plus precipitation (PP), and the t test was applied to establish the statistically significant sectors ( P 〈 0.1). Then, those areas with a significant trend change ( P 〈 0.1) were determined by the Mann–Kendall test. Finally, the interception of the grids was performed to establish their joint occurrence. New hydrological insights for the region Most of the region analyzed (>91%) presents a non-significant variation of ET o over time, with a mostly non-significant change of each driving variable, regarding both its relationship with ET o and its own trend of change. The beneficial change in agricultural suitability reported for this water-limited region was found to be produced almost exclusively by increasing PP. Graphical abstract

Beschreibung: Publication date: Available online 11 December 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Author(s): Makoto Taniguchi, Naoki Masuhara, Kimberly Burnett Security measures of three resources; water, energy and food are analyzed for thirty two countries in the Asia Pacific region which are faced to Pacific Ocean, in terms of amounts of the resource, self-production, and diversity of sources of each resource. Diversity for all the three resources is also analyzed using surface water and groundwater for water sources; hydro power, geothermal power, solar, and biomass for energy; and cereals, vegetable, fruit, meat, and fish for food. We see high diversity of sources of water in the US and the Philippines, and a low diversity of sources of food in the US, Canada, and Indonesia. These security measures including water security show new hydrological insight for Asia-Pacific region.

Beschreibung: Publication date: Available online 10 December 2015 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Author(s): Aiko Endo, Izumi Tsurita, Kimberly Burnett, Pedcris M. Orencio Study region Asia, Europe, Oceania, North America, South America, Middle East and Africa. Study focus The purpose of this paper is to review and analyze the water, energy, and food nexus and regions of study, nexus keywords and stakeholders in order to understand the current state of nexus research. New hydrological insights Through selected 37 projects, four types of nexus research were identified including water–food, water–energy–food, water–energy, and climate related. Among them, six projects (16%) had a close linkage with water–food, 11 (30%) with water–energy–food, 12 (32%) with water–energy, and eight (22%) with climate. The regions were divided into Asia, Europe, Oceania, North America, South America, Middle East and Africa. North America and Oceania had a tendency to focus on a specific nexus type, water–energy (46%) and climate (43%), while Africa had less focus on water–energy (7%). Regarding keywords, out of 37 nexus projects, 16 projects listed keywords in their articles. There were 84 keywords in total, which were categorized by the author team depending on its relevance to water, food, energy, climate, and combination of water–food–energy–climate, and 40 out of 84 keywords were linked with water and only 4 were linked with climate. As for stakeholders, 77 out of 137 organizations were related to research and only two organizations had a role in media.

Beschreibung: Publication date: March 2016 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Volume 5 Author(s): Shilpa M. Asokan, Peter Rogberg, Arvid Bring, Jerker Jarsjö, Georgia Destouni Study region The large semi-arid Aral Region in Central Asia and the smaller tropical Mahanadi River Basin (MRB) in India. Study focus Few studies have so far evaluated the performance of the latest generation of global climate models on hydrological basin scales. We here investigate the performance and projections of the global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) for freshwater fluxes and their changes in two regional hydrological basins, which are both irrigated but of different scale and with different climate. New hydrological insights for the region For precipitation in both regions, model accuracy relative to observations has remained the same or decreased in successive climate model generations until and including CMIP5. No single climate model out-performs other models across all key freshwater variables in any of the investigated basins. Scale effects are not evident from global model application directly to freshwater assessment for the two basins of widely different size. Overall, model results are less accurate and more uncertain for freshwater fluxes than for temperature, and particularly so for model-implied water storage changes. Also, the monsoon-driven runoff seasonality in MRB is not accurately reproduced. Model projections agree on evapotranspiration increase in both regions until the climatic period 2070–2099. This increase is fed by precipitation increase in MRB and by runoff water (thereby decreasing runoff) in the Aral Region.

Beschreibung: Publication date: March 2016 Source: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Volume 5 Author(s): Justin A. Schulte, Raymond G. Najjar, Ming Li Study region The Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. Study focus An understanding of past streamflow variability is necessary for developing future management practices that will help mitigate the impacts of extreme events such as drought or floods on agriculture and other human activities. To better understand mechanisms driving streamflow variability at all timescales, annual to multi-decadal streamflow variability of three major rivers in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States (the Susquehanna, Delaware, and Hudson Rivers) was studied in the context of climate modes using correlation and wavelet analyses. New hydrological insights for the region Results from the correlation analysis detected statistically significant relationships between climate indices and streamflow that were similar for the three rivers. The results from the wavelet analysis showed that 18- and 26-year periodicities were embedded in the streamflow time series. Decadal variability of streamflow was coherent with the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (SO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The time series for the PDO and SO indices and precipitation were found to be synchronized to the decadal variability of a global circulation pattern consisting of a Rossby wave train emanating from the North Pacific. The SO explained 37–54% of the 1960s drought, 33–49% of the 1970s pluvial, and 19–50% of the 2000s pluvial in the three river basins.

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: October 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Journal of Contaminant Hydrology, Volume 226〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Mehrdad Bastani, Thomas Harter〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉 〈p〉Nitrate in drinking water may cause serious health problems for consumers. Agricultural activities are known to be the main source of groundwater nitrate contaminating rural domestic and urban public water supply wells in farming regions. Management practices have been proposed to reduce the amount of nitrate in groundwater, including improved nutrient management practices and “pump and fertilize” with nitrate-affected irrigation wells. Here, we evaluate the feasibility and long-term impacts of agricultural managed aquifer recharge (Ag-MAR) in the source area of public water supply wells. A numerical model of nitrate fate and transport was developed for the Modesto basin, part of California's Central Valley aquifer system. The basin is representative of semi-arid agricultural regions around the world with a diversity of crop types, overlying an unconsolidated sedimentary aquifer system. A local public supply well in an economically disadvantaged community surrounded by farmland was the focus of this study. Model scenarios implemented include business as usual, alternative low-impact crops, and Ag-MAR in the source area of the public supply well. Alternative nutrient management and recharge practices act as remediation tools in the area between farmland and the public supply well. Improved agricultural source area management practices are shown to be an effective tool to maintain or even enhance groundwater quality in the targeted supply well while remediating ambient groundwater.〈/p〉 〈p〉Best results are obtained when lowering nitrate load while also increasing recharge in the source area simultaneously. This scenario reduced nitrate in the supply well's drinking water by 80% relative to the business as usual scenario. It also remediated ambient groundwater used by domestic wells between the source area farmlands and the supply well and showed 60% more reduction of nitrate after 60 years of application. Increasing recharge led to shorter initial response time (five years) and showed the most sustainable impact. Our analysis further suggests that Ag-MAR in a highly discontinuous, wide-spread pattern leads to slow water quality response and may not yield sufficient water quality improvements.〈/p〉 〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 8 July 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Journal of Contaminant Hydrology〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Héloïse A.A. Thouement, Tomasz Kuder, Timo J. Heimovaara, Boris M. Van Breukelen〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Back-diffusion of chlorinated ethenes (CEs) from low-permeability layers (LPLs) causes contaminant persistence long after the primary spill zones have disappeared. Naturally occurring degradation in LPLs lowers remediation time frames, but its assessment through sediment sampling is prohibitive in conventional remediation projects. Scenario simulations were performed with a reactive transport model (PHT3D in FloPy) accounting for isotope effects associated with degradation, sorption, and diffusion, to evaluate the potential of CSIA data from aquifers in assessing degradation in aquitards. The model simulated a trichloroethylene (TCE) DNAPL and its pollution plume within an aquifer-aquitard-aquifer system. Sequential reductive dechlorination to ethene and sorption were uniform in the aquitard and did not occur in the aquifer. After 10 years of loading the aquitard through diffusion from the plume, subsequent source removal triggered release of TCE by back-diffusion. In the upper aquifer, during the loading phase, δ〈sup〉13〈/sup〉C-TCE was slightly enriched (up to 2‰) due to diffusion effects stimulated by degradation in the aquitard. In the upper aquifer, during the release phase, (i) source removal triggered a huge δ〈sup〉13〈/sup〉C increase especially for higher CEs, (ii) moreover, downstream decreasing isotope ratios (caused by downgradient later onset of the release phase) with temporal increasing isotope ratios reflect aquitard degradation (as opposed to downstream increasing and temporally constant isotope ratios in reactive aquifers), and (iii) the carbon isotope mass balance (CIMB) enriched up to 4‰ as lower CEs (more depleted, less sorbing) have been transported deeper into the aquitard. Thus, enriched CIMB does not indicate oxidative transformation in this system. The CIMB enrichment enhanced with more sorption and lower aquitard thickness. Thin aquitards are quicker flushed from lower CEs leading to faster CIMB enrichment over time. CIMB enrichment is smaller or nearly absent when daughter products accumulate. Aquifer CSIA patterns indicative of aquitard degradation were similar in case of linear decreasing rate constants but contrasted with previous simulations assuming a thin bioactive zone. The Rayleigh equation systematically underestimates the extent of TCE degradation in aquifer samples especially during the loading phase and for conditions leading to long remediation time frames (low groundwater flow velocity, thicker aquitards, strong sorption in the aquitard). The Rayleigh equation provides a good and useful picture on aquitard degradation during the release phase throughout the sensitivity analysis. This modelling study provides a framework on how aquifer CSIA data can inform on the occurrence of aquitard degradation and its pitfalls.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: August 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Ocean Modelling, Volume 140〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Oleg Druzhinin, Yuliya Troitskaya, Wu-ting Tsai, Po-chen Chen〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The present study is concerned with direct numerical simulation (DNS) of turbulent air flow over a waved water surface. Three-dimensional, turbulent Couette flow is considered in DNS as a model of a constant-flux layer in the marine atmospheric surface layer. Two-dimensional stationary waves at the water surface are prescribed and assumed to be unaffected by the air-flow. We consider capillary-gravity water surface waves and are interested in the influence of “parasitic” capillary ripples riding on the carrier, energy-containing waves, on the properties of the air-flow. The surface waves are prescribed and considered to be stationary, the capillaries being in phase with the carrier wave. The surface elevations spectra are also prescribed and mimicking stationary capillaries riding on Stokes waves observed in a 2D numerical simulation of water-surface capillary-gravity waves by Hung & Tsai (2009). The bulk air velocity and the carrier water surface waves lengths are considered in our DNS in the range of 3 to 5 m/s and 3 to 7 cm, respectively. Under these conditions, the capillaries are found to be submerged within the viscous sublayer of the atmospheric boundary layer. Our DNS results show that although the flow fields are characterized by instantaneous separations of the boundary layer, the ensemble (wave-phase) averaged flow fields are non-separating and well predicted by a quasilinear theoretical model. We find also that capillaries mitigate the development of coherent (horse-shoe) vortex structures as compared to the no-ripples flow-case. We further use DNS results and quasilinear model formulation to parameterize the water surface roughness height in terms of critical layer thickness and the amplitude of a dominant, energy-containing harmonic of the water surface elevation spectrum.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: July 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour, Volume 64〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Kayla Fleskes, David S. Hurwitz〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉One proposed benefit of automated vehicles (AVs) is their potential to mitigate the occurrence of serious crashes due to human error or poor decision making while driving. However, there are still many concerns associated with the use of SAE Level 3 AVs, which require intervention by a human driver after a take-over request (TOR). These concerns intensify when vulnerable road users, such as bicyclists, are introduced to the driving environment. The objective of this research was to investigate how human drivers of AVs interact with bicyclists during a right-turn maneuver after receiving a TOR. Changes in driver performance, including visual attention and crash avoidance behavior, were measured by using a high-fidelity driving simulator, with 43 participants each completing 18 right-turn maneuvers. Three independent variables were studied: the bicyclist’s proximity to the intersection, the driver’s proximity from the intersection when the TOR was received, and the driver’s engagement in a distracting secondary task (a game on a tablet). In general, the results showed that the introduction of the secondary task led to decreased driver performance with respect to time-to-collision and the time that it took a driver to first identify the bicyclist on the roadway. When given more time to react before the intersection, drivers generally had safer interactions with the bicyclist.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Graphical abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉〈figure〉〈img src="https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S136984781830411X-ga1.jpg" width="426" alt="Graphical abstract for this article" title=""〉〈/figure〉〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 8 July 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Quaternary International〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Brian F. Codding, Adrian R. Whitaker, Nathan E. Stevens〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: 15 August 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Quaternary Science Reviews, Volume 218〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Athanassios Athanassiou, Alexandra A.E. van der Geer, George A. Lyras〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The Eastern Mediterranean islands, most of which belong to the Aegean archipelago, have a complex biogeographic history, which puts its stamp on their fauna and flora. A now extinct but most important faunal component, in terms of geographic spread and taxonomic diversity, are the elephants. The Eastern Mediterranean islands are particularly rich in Pleistocene endemic elephant localities, which preserve samples of extinct endemic populations. These were either descendants of the European straight-tusked elephant 〈em〉Palaeoloxodon antiquus〈/em〉 or the Southern mammoth, 〈em〉Mammuthus meridionalis〈/em〉. Their presence, history and palaeobiogeography has been documented only for Cyprus, Crete, Kasos, Rhodes, Tilos, Kýthera, Naxos, and Delos. For six other islands only anecdotal references exist in the literature: Kálymnos, Astypálaia, Milos, Sériphos, Kýthnos and Paros. Here, we provide an update on previously published specimens and taxa, describe previously undescribed specimens that were relocated in museum collections, as well as recently excavated specimens, and put these in the context of island palaeobiogeography. We conclude that dwarf elephants, endemic to their palaeo-island, lived on the islands of palaeo-Cyclades, Astypálaia, Crete, Kasos–Kárpathos–Saría, Tilos, Rhodes and Cyprus, whereas the elephants from Kephallenía, Kálymnos and Kýthera are indistinguishable on the species level from mainland 〈em〉Palaeoloxodon antiquus〈/em〉. Elephant fossils of unresolved taxonomic status are reported from five present-day islands. The Eastern Mediterranean endemic elephants likely derived from separate and independent colonisation events from the mainland. No island supported more than one proboscidean species at any time. We found that isolation had no effect on the degree of dwarfism, but that there exists a threshold of about 6–10 km distance between the island and the mainland, below which no dwarfism evolved, likely as a result of genetic contact with the mainland population. We also found that although island area is correlated with the degree of dwarfism in elephants, other factors, such as the level of interspecific competition, may limit this degree.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 8 July 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Remote Sensing of Environment〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Julie A. Fortin, Jeffrey A. Cardille, Elijah Perez〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉 〈p〉The ongoing march toward freely available, highly pre-processed satellite imagery has given both researchers and the public unprecedented access to a vast and varied data stream teeming with potential. Among many sources, the multi-decade Landsat archive is certainly the best known, but legacy and current data from other sensors is available as well through the USGS data portals: these include CBERS, ASTER, and more. Though the particular band combinations or non-global missions have made their integration into analyses more challenging, these data, in conjunction with the entire Landsat record, are available to contribute to multi-decade surveys of land-cover change.〈/p〉 〈p〉With the goal of tracing forest change through time near the Roosevelt River in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, we used BULC and Google Earth Engine to fuse information from 13 space-borne imagers capturing 140 images spanning 45 years. With high accuracy, the resulting time series of classifications shows the timing and location of land-use/land-cover change—both deforestation and regrowth—at sub-annual time scales. Accuracy estimates showed that the synthesized BULC classification time series was better than nearly all of the single-day image classifications, covering the entire study area at sub-annual frequency while reducing the impact of clouds and most unwanted noise as it fused information derived from a wide array of imaging platforms. The time series improved and gradually sharpened as the density of observations increased in recent decades, when there were three or more clear, higher-resolution views of a pixel annually from any sensor combination. In addition to detailing the methodology and results of multi-source data fusion with the BULC approach, this study raises timely points about integrating information from early satellite data sources and from sensors with footprints smaller than Landsat's. There are decades of research deriving sensor-specific techniques for classifying land use and land cover from a single image in a variety of settings. The BULC approach leverages the many successes of single-sensor research and can be used as a straightforward, complementary tool for blending many good-quality mapped classifications from disparate sources into a coherent, high-quality time series.〈/p〉 〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 8 July 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Quaternary International〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Xiaolin Ren, Duowen Mo, Michael Storozum, Ximena Lemoine, Yanyan Yu, Wanfa Gu, Xingshan Lei, Jiaqiang Zhang, Jianqing Lü, Tristram R. Kidder〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Archaeologists have focused on the social conditions surrounding the development of urbanism around the world, however the environmental impact of these ancient cities remains unclear. In this paper, we present palynological data from the early Bronze Age city of Dongzhao, Henan Province, China. Our data indicate that vegetation change and the development of early urban settlements are closely linked, with the advent of urban development significantly accelerating deforestation and altering the composition of local vegetation communities. The pollen record from Dongzhao provides new evidence to support the claim that urban expansion, coupled with a drying climate and the expansion of agriculture, dramatically reconfigured the landscapes of Bronze Age China.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: September 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Advances in Water Resources, Volume 131〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Shaokun He, Shenglian Guo, Kebing Chen, Lele Deng, Zhen Liao, Feng Xiong, Jiabo Yin〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The optimal impoundment operation of cascade reservoirs can dramatically improve the utilization of water resources. However, their complex non-convexity and computational costs pose challenges to optimal hydroelectricity output and limit further development of joint operation within larger-scale cascade reservoirs. In recent decades, parallel dynamic programming (PDP) has emerged as a means of alleviating the ‘curse of dimensionality’ in the mid-long term reservoir operation with more involved computing processors. But it still can't effectively solve the daily impoundment operation of more than three reservoirs. Here, we propose a novel method called importance sampling-PDP (IS-PDP) algorithm in which the merits of PDP are integrated with importance sampling and successive approximation strategy. Importance sampling is first used to construct the state vectors of each period by introducing ‘Manhattan distance’ in the discrete state space. Then the PDP recursive equation is used to find an improved solution during the iteration. The IS-PDP method is tested to optimize hydropower output for the joint operation of an 11-reservoir system located in the upper Yangtze River basin of China after establishing impoundment operation by advancing impoundment timings and rising water levels. We find that our methodology could effectively deal with the ‘curse of dimensionality’ for such mega reservoir systems and make better use of water resources in comparison to the Standard Operation Policy (SOP). Given its computational efficiency and robust convergence, the methodology is an attractive alternative for non-convex operation of large-scale cascade reservoirs.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: August 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Volume 154〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): 〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: July 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Ocean Modelling, Volume 139〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): 〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: November 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 World Development, Volume 123〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Adriana Camacho, Emily Conover〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Small-scale farmers in developing countries often make production and sale decisions based on imprecise, informal, and out-of-date sources of information, such as family, neighbors, or tradition. Lack of timely and accurate information on climate and prices can lead to inefficiencies in the production, harvesting, and commercialization of agricultural products, which in turn can affect farmers’ revenues and well-being. We did a Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) experiment with 500 small-scale farmers in a rural area of Colombia where there is nearly full mobile phone usage and coverage. Treated farmers received around 8 text messages per week with prices in the main markets for crops grown in the region, and customized weather forecasts. Compared to a control group, we find that treated farmers were more likely to report that text messages provide useful information for planting and selling, and more likely to always read their messages, indicating an increase in appreciation and use of this type of technology. We also found heterogeneous effects by farmer size. Smaller farmers try to make use of the intervention by planting more crops for which they have price information. Larger farmers seek new markets and increase conversations with other producers. Despite these positive effects, we do not find a significant difference in farmers reporting a price, price differential with the market price, or sale prices received. Our results indicate that farmers are amenable to learning and using new technologies, but that the introduction of these technologies do not always translate into short-run welfare improvements for them. Given the increased interest in incorporating information and communication technologies into agriculture, our findings indicate that prior to a large-scale implementation it is necessary to better understand what prevents farmers from more directly profiting from this new information.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: October 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Remote Sensing of Environment, Volume 232〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Yue Ma, Nan Xu, Jinyan Sun, Xiao Hua Wang, Fanlin Yang, Song Li〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Currently, 〈em〉in-situ〈/em〉 data and the time duration of altimeter data are limitations in calculating the water level and water volume of lakes and reservoirs from remotely sensed data. A novel method is proposed to estimate the temporal change in water levels and water volumes for lakes with only remotely sensed data. First, the surface profiles, including the ground and the underwater bottom, were extracted from the MABEL (Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental Lidar) photon-counting lidar raw data via a new surface detecting algorithm. Second, the lake boundaries between land and water in different years were identified using a thresholding method based on the annual median Landsat composite. Third, water levels were calculated by matching the lidar surface profiles with the lake boundaries based on the nearby georeferenced coordinates. Finally, the water volumes in different years were estimated via the contours (i.e., lake boundaries) with different elevations. Lake Mead was selected as the study area, which is the largest reservoir in the United States in terms of water capacity. With only one day measuring lidar points in February 2012 and over 20 years of Landsat images (from 1987 to 2007), the water levels and water volumes in different years were estimated and compared with the 〈em〉in-situ〈/em〉 data. Our results performed well in accordance with the 〈em〉in-situ〈/em〉 measurements; the R-square of the water levels and water volumes were both over 0.99; the RMSE of the interannual variations of water levels and water volumes were 0.96 m and 0.31 km〈sup〉3〈/sup〉, respectively. The MABEL was used as a technology demonstrator for the satellite photon-counting laser altimeter and had similar data to the ICESat-2 dataset. Future ICESat-2 datasets will broaden this method to estimate water volumes for remote lakes from the 1980s, where no 〈em〉in-situ〈/em〉 data are available (such as the Tibetan Plateau and polar regions with thousands of remote and wild lakes), which could not be achieved in previous studies.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: September 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Weather and Climate Extremes, Volume 25〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Jeremy Diaz, Maxwell B. Joseph〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Tornadoes are the most violent of all atmospheric storms. In a typical year, the United States experiences hundreds of tornadoes with associated damages on the order of one billion dollars. Community preparation and resilience would benefit from accurate predictions of these economic losses, particularly as populations in tornado-prone areas increase in density and extent. Here, we use a zero-inflated modeling approach and artificial neural networks to predict tornado-induced property damage using publicly available data. We developed a neural network that predicts whether a tornado will cause property damage (out-of-sample accuracy = 0.821 and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, AUROC, = 0.872). Conditional on a tornado causing damage, another neural network predicts the amount of damage (out-of-sample mean squared error = 0.0918 and 〈math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" altimg="si1.svg"〉〈mrow〉〈msup〉〈mrow〉〈mi〉R〈/mi〉〈/mrow〉〈mrow〉〈mn〉2〈/mn〉〈/mrow〉〈/msup〉〈/mrow〉〈/math〉  = 0.432). When used together, these two models function as a zero-inflated log-normal regression with hidden layers. From the best-performing models, we provide static and interactive gridded maps of monthly predicted probabilities of damage and property damages for the year 2019. Two primary weaknesses include (1) model fitting requires log-scale data which leads to large natural-scale residuals and (2) beginning tornado coordinates were utilized rather than tornado paths. Ultimately, this is the first known study to directly model tornado-induced property damages, and all data, code, and tools are publicly available. The predictive capacity of this model along with an interactive interface may provide an opportunity for science-informed tornado disaster planning.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: August 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Volume 24〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Johnson U. Kitheka〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉 〈h6〉Study region〈/h6〉 〈p〉This study was undertaken in the Athi-Sabaki river basin in Kenya in East Africa.〈/p〉 〈/div〉 〈div〉 〈h6〉Study focus〈/h6〉 〈p〉The study focused on the determination of the influence of streamflow variability on salt fluxes. This involved monitoring of river discharge and river salinity in the period between 2012 and 2018.〈/p〉 〈/div〉 〈div〉 〈h6〉New hydrological insights〈/h6〉 〈p〉: This study demonstrates that Athi-Sabaki river discharges significant quantity of salt to the sea. There are significant seasonal and inter-annual variations in salt fluxes that are due to variations in river discharge and rainfall in the basin. The relationship between streamflow variations and variations of salinity in the river was inverse with highest salinity concentrations and fluxes occurring during low flow conditions. The river salinity and TDS concentrations decreased with an increase in river discharge due to dilution effect and flushing of salt from the river. The highly polluted sub-basins draining through the City of Nairobi exhibited relatively higher salinity and salt fluxes as compared to non-polluted ones draining rural areas. The total salt flux in the basin ranged between 29 × 10〈sup〉3〈/sup〉 and 261 × 10〈sup〉3〈/sup〉 tons year〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉. The relatively high salinity and salt fluxes were attributed to the discharge of wastewaters, seepage of groundwater and irrigation return flows. The study calls for water pollution control, sustainable irrigation and landuse practices in the basin.〈/p〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: October 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Geoforum, Volume 105〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Arnab Roy Chowdhury, Kuntala Lahiri-Dutt〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Hirashasan is the term used for governance of diamond mining and trade – with a small bureaucracy and an exclusive set of rules and regulations – by the district administration of Panna in the state of Madhya Pradesh in India. Diamond mining in Panna encompasses diverse extractive practices that range from fully mechanised large-scale mining operations owned by the state, to small-scale and semi-mechanised mining carried out by farmers and landowners in groups, to individuals carrying out seasonal and part-time mining of diamonds in an artisanal manner. Based on an ethnographic study was undertaken from September 2016 to April 2017, we argue that Hirashasan has created an “extractive assemblage” that comprises four genres of mining and production systems: large-scale, small-scale, licensed artisanal and unlicensed artisanal. This assemblage is a product of historical, cultural and geographical contingencies as much as place-specificities, and does not lend itself to a single mode of governance. Mineral resource governance in a particular place, therefore, necessitates understanding and internalising the variegated and pluri-form extractive assemblages, such as that of the diamond economy in Panna.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 5 July 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Sorin M.S. Krammer, Alfredo Jiménez〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉We posit that the investments in political connections made by a firm in an emerging market will impact differently its propensity to introduce radical and incremental innovations. In addition, we argue that this effect will be moderated by alternate non-market firm strategies, such as bribery. Using a dataset of more than 9000 firms in 30 emerging economies from Eastern Europe and Central Asia we find that political connections increase the probability of radical innovation but have no significant impact on incremental innovation. Moreover, larger bribing reduces the positive impact of political connections on radical innovation. Our results confirm the importance of political connections for firm activities, but also caution firms on their heterogeneous impact on various types of innovations, and their detrimental interplay with other non-market strategies.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 5 July 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Amit Agarwal, Dominik Ziemke, Kai Nagel〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Bicycle is a sustainable low-carbon transport mode. However, insufficient or unplanned infrastructure leads to decrease in the share of bicycle in many cities of developing nations. In order to increase the bicycle share and to provide safer, faster and more direct routes, a bicycle superhighway is proposed for urban areas. This study identifies the potential of increase in the bicycle share. For maximum utilization of the new infrastructure, an algorithm is presented to identify the optimum number and locations of the connectors between proposed new infrastructure and existing network. Household income levels are incorporated into the decision making process of individual travellers for a better understanding of the modal shift. A real-world case study of Patna, India is chosen to show the application of the proposed superhighway. It is shown that for Patna, the bicycle share can escalate as high as 48% up from 32% by providing this kind of infrastructure. However, together with bicycles, allowing motorbikes on the superhighway limits the bicycle share to 44%. The increase in bicycle share is mainly a result of people switching from motorbike, public transport and walk to the bicycle. Further, to evaluate the benefits of the bicycle superhighway, this study first extends an emission modelling tool to estimate the time-dependent, vehicle-specific emissions under mixed traffic conditions. Allowing only bicyclists on the superhighway improves congested urban areas, reduces emissions, and increases accessibility. However, allowing motorbikes on the superhighway increases emissions significantly in the central part of the urban area and reduces accessibilities by bicycle mode to education facilities which are undesirable. This study elicits that a physically segregated high-quality bicycle superhighway will not only attract current non-cyclist travellers and increase the share of the bicycle mode, but will also reduce negative transport externalities significantly.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: 15 October 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Geomorphology, Volume 343〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Wenmin Yao, Changdong Li, Qingjun Zuo, Hongbin Zhan, Robert E. Criss〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Variations of reservoir water level and seasonal precipitation have resulted in significant movement and destabilization of landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) region of China since reservoir impoundment in 2003. An example is the Baijiabao landslide, a large, actively creeping landslide located in the steep lower valley of the Xiangxi River, about 55 km upstream of the TGR dam in the Yangtze River. Twelve years of monthly monitoring at four GPS stations and routine, monthly field observations show cumulative GPS displacements as large as 〉1.5 m and widely developed ground cracks. GPS monitoring results show that most movement takes place in rapid steps that coincide with the rainy season and the period of annual reservoir drawdown, with particularly large steps in 2009, 2012 and 2015. This step-like pattern of displacement is also shown by daily data from an automatic monitoring system installed in 2017. The total period of acceleration shown by these daily data was about six weeks long, with rapid movement starting during rapid reservoir drawdown, and terminating when the reservoir began to rise again. In particular, most of the 2018 displacement occurred in only two weeks. Different subzones of the landslide move at different rates and exhibit different features of deformation. The neighborhood rough set theory is used to identify the triggering factors responsible for landslide deformation. The most important triggering factors vary between different sites, data types and the time interval used to define them. The surface deformation and ground crack widening are controlled by the combination of rainfall and variations in the reservoir water levels, whereas the deformation of the sliding zone is most sensitive to the latter. The results show that daily data are needed to capture important, short-term landslide responses. The neighborhood rough set theory for determination of triggering factors is suggested for deformation prediction, stability evaluation, and prevention and control of reservoir landslides in this and other regions.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: November 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, Volume 83〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Sergio Sánchez-Ruiz, Álvaro Moreno-Martínez, Emma Izquierdo-Verdiguier, Marta Chiesi, Fabio Maselli, María Amparo Gilabert〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Growing stock volume (GSV) is one of the most important variables for forest management and is traditionally estimated from ground measurements. These measurements are expensive and therefore sparse and hard to maintain in time on a regular basis. Remote sensing data combined with national forest inventories constitute a helpful tool to estimate and map forest attributes. However, most studies on GSV estimation from remote sensing data focus on small forest areas with a single or only a few species. The current study aims to map GSV in peninsular Spain, a rather large and very heterogeneous area. Around 50 000 wooded land plots from the Third Spanish National Forest Inventory (NFI3) were used as reference data, whereas more than 8 000 Landsat-5 TM and Landsat-7 ETM + scenes covering both the study period (1997–2007) and area were chosen as a compromise between availability and suitable temporal and spatial resolution to estimate GSV. Google Earth Engine (GEE) was used to handle the huge amount of remotely sensed data. A total of 805 predictors were calculated from Landsat spectral reflectances. Guided regularized random forests algorithm (RF) was used to deal with the arising multicolinearity and identify the most important predictors by comparing with NFI3 plot-level GSV data. As a result, to model the relationship between spectral information and GSV, the original 805 predictors were reduced to only 29 (highlighting texture metrics, vegetation indices and band ratios involving short wave infrared reflectance) while maintaining the accuracy level (〈em〉R〈/em〉〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 ≈ 0.4 and RMSE ≈ 60 m〈sup〉3〈/sup〉 ha〈sup〉–1〈/sup〉). A 30-m spatial resolution wall-to-wall GSV map over Peninsular Spain was obtained from a standard RF with the 29 selected predictors through GEE. Its accuracy was evaluated against NFI3 province-level GSV data, resulting in 〈em〉R〈/em〉〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 ≈ 0.91 and RMSE ≈ 15 m〈sup〉3〈/sup〉 ha〈sup〉–1〈/sup〉.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈h5〉Graphical abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉〈figure〉〈img src="https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0303243419301898-ga1.jpg" width="298" alt="Graphical abstract for this article" title=""〉〈/figure〉〈/p〉〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: November 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 World Development, Volume 123〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Alwin Keil, Archisman Mitra, Amit K. Srivastava, Andrew McDonald〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Sustainable intensification (SI) approaches to agricultural development are urgently needed to meet the growing demand for crop staples while protecting ecosystem services and environmental quality. However, SI initiatives have been criticized for neglecting social welfare outcomes. A recent review found that better-off farmers benefitted disproportionately from SI and highlighted the dearth of studies assessing the equity of outcomes. In this study, we explore the social inclusiveness of zero-tillage (ZT) wheat adoption in Bihar, India. ZT is a proven SI technology for enhancing wheat productivity while boosting profitability and reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural machinery in the densely populated Indo-Gangetic Plains. With an average landholding size of 0.39 ha, most farmers in Bihar depend on custom-hiring services to access the technology. While service provision models should foster inclusive growth by reducing financial barriers to technology adoption, early evidence suggested that smallholders remained at a disadvantage. Building on this previous research, we use a panel dataset from 961 wheat-growing households that spans a six-year period to analyze ZT adoption dynamics over time while accounting for the role of social networks and access to service provision. Using a heckprobit approach to correct for non-exposure bias, we compare determinants of ZT awareness and use in 2012 and 2015. We apply a multinomial logit model to identify determinants of early adoption, recent adoption, non-adoption, and dis-adoption. Furthermore, we explore the quality of ZT services as an additional dimension of socially-inclusive technology access. We find that the strong initial scale bias in ZT use declined substantially as awareness of the technology increased and the service economy expanded. Land fragmentation replaced total landholding size as a significant adoption determinant, which also affected the quality of ZT services received. Hence, farmers with small but contiguous landholdings appear to have gained a significant degree of access over time. We conclude that early-stage assessments of SI may be misleading, and that private sector-based service provision can contribute to socially inclusive development outcomes as markets mature.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: November 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 World Development, Volume 123〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Chiara Ravetti, Mare Sarr, Daniel Munene, Tim Swanson〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This paper analyses the ways in which ethnic identity and labour institutions shape favouritism and discrimination among workers. We conduct a lab experiment in the field with South African coal miners from various ethnic groups and with different trade union membership status. Our analysis suggests that union identity and ethnic identity are two social constructs that operate in a distinct and opposite fashion. Unionization acts as a factor of workers solidarity beyond the confine of union membership. Conversely, ethnicity operates as the linchpin through which discrimination among workers is infused not only between ethnic majority and minorities, but also within the majority group itself. We find that the widespread practice of subcontracting in the mining sector exacerbates ethnic discrimination among workers both between and within ethnic groupings.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: November 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 World Development, Volume 123〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Vanesa Jordá, Miguel Niño-Zarazúa〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Despite the growing interest in global inequality, assessing inequality trends is a major challenge because individual data on income or consumption is not often available. Nevertheless, the periodic release of certain summary statistics of the income distribution has become increasingly common. Hence, grouped data in form of income shares have been conventionally used to construct inequality trends based on lower bound approximations of inequality measures. This approach introduces two potential sources of measurement error: first, these estimates are constructed under the assumption of equality of incomes within income shares; second, the highest income earners are not included in the household surveys from which grouped data is obtained. In this paper, we propose to deploy a flexible parametric model, which addresses these two issues in order to obtain a reliable representation of the income distribution and accurate estimates of inequality measures. This methodology is used to estimate the recent evolution of global interpersonal inequality from 1990 to 2015 and to examine the effect of survey under-coverage of top incomes on the level and direction of global inequality. Overall, we find that item non-response at the top of the distribution substantially biases global inequality estimates, but, more importantly, it might also affect the direction of the trends.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: 15 August 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Quaternary Science Reviews, Volume 218〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Weizhe Chen, Dan Zhu, Philippe Ciais, Chunju Huang, Nicolas Viovy, Masa Kageyama〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Climate and atmospheric CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 strongly influence the vegetation distribution and the terrestrial carbon storage. Process-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM) are important tools for simulating past vegetation dynamics and carbon cycle; yet the link between spatial gradients of climate and vegetation cover in geological past has received less attention. In this study, we simulate the distribution of vegetation under three CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 levels for two climate states, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Pre-industrial (PI) climate with fire activated or deactivated using the ORCHIDEE-MICT DGVM. Results show that elevated CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 and warmer climate promote global total tree cover but the impacts are different between forest biomes. Regional tree cover is highly regulated by mean annual precipitation (MAP) especially in the tropics, and by temperature for the boreal-arctic tree line. Based on quantile nonlinear regressions, we analyze the MAP threshold at which maximum tree cover is reached. This threshold is significantly reduced with elevated CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 for tropical and temperate trees. With higher CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉, increased tree cover leads to reduced fire ignition and burned area, and provides a positive feedback to tree cover, especially in Africa. Besides, in our model, increasing CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉-induced enhancement of gross primary productivity (GPP) is more prominent for tropical trees than for temperate and boreal trees, and for dry regions than wet regions. This difference explains why CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 is the major factor influencing forest cover in the tropics. It also highlights that special attention should be paid to collect paleo-vegetation data across savannas-forest transition in dry regions.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: November 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 World Development, Volume 123〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Ben Siegelman, Nora Haenn, Xavier Basurto〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This paper relates how fishermen in San Evaristo on Mexico’s Baja peninsula employ fabrications to strengthen bonds of trust and navigate the complexities of common pool resource extraction. We argue this trickery complicates notions of social capital in community-based natural resource management, which emphasize communitarianism in the form of trust. Trust, defined as a mutual dependability often rooted in honesty, reliable information, or shared expectations, has long been recognized as essential to common pool resource management. Despite this, research that takes a critical approach to social capital places attention on the activities that foster social networks and their norms by arguing that social capital is a process. A critical approach illuminates San Evaristeño practices of lying and joking across social settings and contextualizes these practices within cultural values of harmony. As San Evaristeños assert somewhat paradoxically, for them “lies build trust.” Importantly, a critical approach to this case study forces consideration of gender, an overlooked topic in social capital research. San Evaristeña women are excluded from the verbal jousting through which men maintain ties supporting their primacy in fishery management. Both men’s joke-telling and San Evaristeños’ aversion to conflict have implications for conservation outcomes. As a result, we use these findings to help explain local resistance to outsiders and external management strategies including land trusts, fishing cooperatives, and marine protected areas.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 5 July 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Quaternary International〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Rodrigo Loyola, Lautaro Núñez, Isabel Cartajena〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉It has often been assumed that a link exists between climate change and human dispersion during the initial peopling of the Atacama Desert. However, there is little understanding of how hunter-gatherers acquired and processed environmental information. We examine paleoenvironmental and archaeological data to propose that the early peopling of the highlands of the south-central Atacama was a gradual process modulated by landscape learning. Evidence suggests that initial occupations at the end of the Pleistocene were limited to intermediate altitude levels, where the ecological structure was more easily legible and productive. This allowed human groups to make use of general, transferrable landscape knowledge, based mainly on the hunting of wild camelids and the gathering of plant resources in azonal formations. However, the arid event of the Early Holocene led to successive episodes of abandonment and relocation to new areas, consolidating complementary land-use between the desert lowlands and the high puna. Two complementary strategies for the acquisition and transmission of information can be identified: (1) scouting as part of logistical hunting parties; and (2) information-pooling rooted in broad, flexible social networks. We conclude that in the face of uncertain conditions, hunter-gatherers invested more effort in learning the landscape and sharing environmental knowledge.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: 15 October 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Geomorphology, Volume 343〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Nieves G. Valiente, Robert Jak McCarroll, Gerd Masselink, Tim Scott, Mark Wiggins〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Predicting the future behavior of beach and nearshore systems requires an accurate delineation and understanding of coastal cell boundaries, sediment transport pathways, and sediment sources and sinks. Unfortunately, there is a paucity of field datasets on beach and nearshore morphological change that extend fully from the top of the dunes to beyond the depth of closure to enable quantification of the sediment budget. Here, for the first time, we employ a total sediment budget approach, examining a sandy and embayed beach located in the north coast of SW England, to investigate inter- and multi-annual embayment scale sediment dynamics over a 10-year period that includes extreme storm erosion and post-storm recovery. We demonstrate that, despite the deeply embayed nature of the beach, the shoreline orientation roughly parallel to the dominant wave direction and the overwhelmingly cross-shore forcing of the inter-tidal beach volume, the system is neither closed, nor balanced. The very significant net changes in the recorded sediment volume from dune top to depth of closure (−14.5 m ODN), representing a loss of c. 100 m〈sup〉3〈/sup〉 m〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉 during the extreme storm period and a gain of c. 200 m〈sup〉3〈/sup〉 m〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉 during the recovery period, indicate that significant sediment transport occurs seaward of the base of the terminating headlands and beyond the morphological depth of closure. The results further indicate that the inter-tidal region is partly uncoupled from the sub-tidal region, with the former region dominated by cross-shore sediment fluxes, whereas the subtidal region is also significantly affected by longshore sediment fluxes. A conceptual model is presented that balances the observed volume changes with inferred fluxes, forced by variations in total and alongshore wave power. This study contradicts the general assumption that when sediment exits the inter-tidal, it rests undisturbed in the sub-tidal, waiting for a period of low-moderate energy to bring it onshore. The large sediment volumetric variations across the lower shoreface (depth of 5–20 m), which are of the same order of magnitude as, but uncorrelated with, those occurring in the inter-tidal region, are suggestive of an energetic longshore transport system across this deeper region. It is possible that this transport system extends along the whole north coast of SW England and this finding may lead to a shift in understanding of sediment budgets along exposed and macrotidal embayments globally.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Graphical abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉〈figure〉〈img src="https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0169555X19302739-ga1.jpg" width="439" alt="Unlabelled Image" title="Unlabelled Image"〉〈/figure〉〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉