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  • Cambridge University Press  (5,378)
  • 2020-2024  (5)
  • 1990-1994  (2,779)
  • 1980-1984  (1,942)
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  • 1925-1929  (191)
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  • 1929  (191)
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  • 2020-2024  (5)
  • 1990-1994  (2,779)
  • 1980-1984  (1,942)
  • 1955-1959  (461)
  • 1935-1939
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2024-04-05
    Description: Seismic Rayleigh wave ellipticity measurements are the horizontal-to-vertical ratio of the Rayleigh wave particle motion, and are sensitive to the subsurface structure beneath a seismic station. H/V ratios measured from the ambient vibrations of the Earth are being increasingly used in glaciological applications to determine glacier and ice sheet thickness, seismic velocities and firn properties. Using the newly developed degree-of-polarisation (DOP-E) method which exploits the polarisation properties of seismic noise, we identify and extract Rayleigh waves from seismic stations in Greenland, and relate them to sea ice processes and the geology of the upper crust. Finally, we provide some suggestions for future applications of DOP-E method to gain greater insight into seasonal and long-term variability of sea ice formation and breakup as well as the monitoring of ice sheet thickness, subglacial environment and firn layers in the poles.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3-7
    Description: OST1 Alla ricerca dei Motori Geodinamici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2024-06-13
    Description: All Rights Reserved
    Description: Predicting coastal change depends upon our knowledge of postglacial relative sea-level variability, partly controlled by glacio-isostatic responses to ice-sheet melting. Here, we reconstruct the postglacial relative sea-level changes along the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of northwestern South America by numerically solving the sea-level equation with two scenarios of mantle viscosity: global standard average and high viscosity. Our results with the standard model (applicable to the Pacific coast) agree with earlier studies by indicating a mid-Northgrippian high stand of ~2 m. The high-viscosity simulation (relevant to the Caribbean coast) shows that the transition from far- to intermediate-field influence of the Laurentide Ice Sheet occurs between Manzanillo del Mar and the Gulf of Morrosquillo. South of this location, the Colombian Caribbean coast has exhibited a still stand with a nearly constant Holocene relative sea level. By analyzing our simulations considering sea-level indicators, we argue that tectonics is more prominent than previously assumed, especially along the Caribbean coast. This influence prevents a simplified view of regional relative sea-level changes on the northwestern South American coast.
    Description: Published
    Description: 28-43
    Description: OSA4: Ambiente marino, fascia costiera ed Oceanografia operativa
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: We developed a high-resolution magnetochronology of the Pleistocene stratigraphy of the Monte Netto hillock, a tectonically uplifted struc ture in the Po Plain of northern Italy. Our data allowed reconstructing the depositional age of the sequence and assessing rates of defor mation and rock uplift of the neotectonic structure, thus providing constraints on the tectono-sedimentary evolution of this seismically active part of the buried Southern Alps. Using a combination of magnetostratigraphy and paleosecular variation analysis, we generated an age-depth model for the Monte Netto stratigraphy that encompasses, from the top, Upper Pleistocene (11–72 ka) loess-paleosols over laying fluvial sediments spanning the Brunhes-Matuyama boundary (773 ka) and the top of the Jaramillo (990 ka). The identification of the same magneto-chronostratigraphic surfaces in nearby drill cores from regions of the Po Plain that have not been affected by neotectonic deformation allowed estimating a mean rate of tectonic uplift of the hillock relative to the neighboring plain of 11.3 ± 1.5 cm/ka, and an absolute uplift relative to sea level of ∼19.3 cm/ka. Finally, our paleomagnetic analyses from the uppermost loess sequence disclosed the complexity of the tectonic evolution of the Monte Netto structure, which shows evidence of a two-phase rotational deformation linked to coseismic surface faulting due to recent seismic activity.
    Description: Published
    Description: 191-205
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Magnetochronology ; Pleistocene ; Paleosecular variations ; Loess-paleosols ; Neotectonic deformation ; Po Plain
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  • 4
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    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 1-2 
    ISSN: 0266-2671
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
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  • 5
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    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 1-4 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
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  • 6
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    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 19-30 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
    Notes: Consider how your consumption would change if you were stranded on a deserted island. Isolation would eliminate all social influences on your consumption decisions, even for the same choice set. You might decide not to consume cosmetics, curtains, or neckties, and pay less attention to the style or color of your clothes, car, or furniture. These choices might not matter as much to you anymore, for you would not have to consider the reactions of other individuals to your consumption. Similarly, isolation would also eliminate social influences on your speech. Absent an audience, your choice of words would not be subject to the judgments of others.
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  • 7
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    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 1-17 
    ISSN: 0266-2671
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
    Notes: This essay argues in favor of retaining the positive/normative distinction in economics, in spite of developments in methodology and epistemology that have cast doubt on the possibility of a “value-free” economics. The central claim is that it is worthwhile to distinguish between positive economic analysis and normative judgments, even if economics is viewed as being permeated with ethical values. This argument is presented without trying either to demonstrate that there is (or is not) a profound epistemological difference between science and ethics or to show that positive science can (or cannot) afford us access to objective reality.
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  • 8
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    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 59-72 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
    Notes: The concept of fairness as mutual advantage has been developed in the tradition of social contract theory. In this framework society is seen as an enterprise that coordinates the activities of its members in order to advance their interests. All acceptable social rules are in the interest of each member of society. Rules are agreed unanimously – no rules can be enforced against the interest of someone. It is assumed that individuals are basically self-interested and rational. Radical libertarianism claims that individuals do not have to accept any a priori constraints on their behavior. “Libertarianism focuses on negative freedom” (Schokkaert, 1992, p. 89).
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  • 9
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    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 31-58 
    ISSN: 0266-2671
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
    Notes: Postmodernism is often characterized, among other things, as the belief in the unattainability of objective truth and as a rejection of teleological and reductionist, or essentialist, forms of thought. For instance, in his provocative book The Rhetoric of Economics (1985), Donald McCloskey sketches the implications for economic methodology of Richard Rorty's (1979) rejection of the modernist quest for Truth, as represented by various rationalist and empiricist epistemologies. McCloskey describes modernist methodology as displaying a desire to predict and control, a search for objective–;which often means measurable–;knowledge, and an attempt to develop a value-free inquiry, among other characteristics (McCloskey, 1985, pp. 7-8). This “methodological correctness,” McCloske suggests, is discredited by the postmodern dissatisfaction with traditional epistemology. Thus, in place of the modernist belief in a rule-guided path to truth, he advocates a “free market” approach to knowledge, in which participants in the variety of theoretical conversations agree to be earnest and listen politely to one another.
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  • 10
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    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 73-89 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
    Notes: I carved a massive cake of beeswax into bits and rolled them in my hands until they softened ... Going forward I carried wax along the line, and laid it thick on their ears. They tied me up, then, plumb amidships, back to the mast, lashed to the mast, and took themselves again to rowing. Soon, as we came smartly within hailing distance, the two Sirens, noting our fast ship off their point, made ready, and they sang ... The lovely voices in ardor appealing over the water made me crave to listen, and I tried to say ‘Untie me!’ to the crew, jerking my brows; but they bent steady to the oars. (Homer, c. –900, pp. 227–28)
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  • 11
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    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 115-117 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
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  • 12
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    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 107-113 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
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  • 13
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    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 91-106 
    ISSN: 0266-2671
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
    Notes: At lunch one day a colleague and I had a friendly argument over occupational licensing. I attacked it for being anticompetitive, arguing that licensing boards raise occupational incomes by restricting entry, advertising, and commercialization. My colleague, while acknowledging anticompetitive aspects, affirmed the need for licensing on the grounds of protecting the consumer from frauds and quacks. In many areas of infrequent and specialized dealing, consumers are not able, ex ante or even ex post, to evaluate competence. I countered by suggesting voluntary means by which reputational problems might be handled and by returning to the offensive. I said that in fact the impetus for licensing usually comes from the practitioners, not their customers, and that licensing boards seldom devote their time to ferreting out incompetence but rather simply to prosecuting unlicensed practitioners. I mentioned cross-sectional findings, such as those on state licensure, prices, and occupational incomes. Overall, I characterized the professional establishment as a group of dastardly operators, who set the standards, write the codes, and enforce behavior to enhance their own material wellbeing - in brief, as venal rent-seekers.
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  • 14
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    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 119-122 
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  • 15
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    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 123-126 
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  • 16
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    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 127-133 
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  • 17
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    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 133-138 
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  • 18
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    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 138-145 
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  • 19
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    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 145-148 
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  • 20
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    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 149-150 
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  • 21
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    New York : Cambridge University Press
    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 1-2 
    ISSN: 0266-4666
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    Topics: Economics
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  • 22
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 514-551 
    ISSN: 0266-4666
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: A vector autoregressive (VAR) model is specified with equation system parameters, which directly reflect the possible cointegrating nature of the analyzed time series. By using a flat/diffuse prior, we show that the marginal posteriors of the parameters of interest (multipliers of the cointegrating vectors) may be nonintegrable and favor difference stationary models in an undesired way. To choose between stationary, cointegrated, and difference stationary models in a meaningful way, the Jeffreys prior principle is used. We investigate the sensitivity of the posterior results with respect to the construction of the Jeffreys prior. In this context, we also analyze the effect of fixed and stochastic initial values. The theoretical results are illustrated by using a VAR model for shortand long–term interest rates in the United States.
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  • 23
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 439-440 
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  • 24
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 442-442 
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  • 25
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 442-442 
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  • 26
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 450-450 
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  • 27
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 1-2 
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  • 28
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 53-69 
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: By appropriately partitioning the joint hypothesis of weak exogeneity and the maintained overidentifying restrictions in the linear dynamic simultaneous equations model and showing that the component subhypotheses are separable, asymptotically optimal tests for the weak exogeneity hypothesis may be constructed using limited information statistics. A necessary and sufficient condition for the separability of parametric hypotheses of the mixed implicit function and constraint equation type is derived which generalizes conditions previously obtained in the literature. Consequently, limited and full information procedures for testing the weak exogeneity hypothesis are asymptotically equivalent. The impact of these results for testing strong exogeneity in the linear dynamic simultaneous equations model is also explored.
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  • 29
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 116-129 
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: When values of regressors are symmetrically disposed, many M-estimators in a wide class of models have a reflection property, namely, that as the signs of the coefficients on regressors are reversed, their estimators' sampling distribution is reflected about the origin. When the coefficients are zero, sign reversal can have no effect. So in this case, the sampling distribution of regression coefficient estimators is symmetric about zero, the estimators are median unbiased and, when moments exist, the estimators are exactly uncorrelated with estimators of other parameters. The result is unusual in that it does not require response variates to have symmetric conditional distributions. It demonstrates the potential importance of covariate design in determining the distributions of estimators, and it is useful in designing and interpreting Monte Carlo experiments. The result is illustrated by a Monte Carlo experiment in which maximum likelihood and symmetrically censored least-squares estimators are calculated for small samples from a censored normal linear regression, Tobit, model.
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  • 30
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 774-808 
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: The Kalman filter is used to derive updating equations for the Bayesian data density in discrete time linear regression models with stochastic regressors. The implied “Bayes model” has time varying parameters and conditionally heterogeneous error variances. A σ-finite Bayes model measure is given and used to produce a new-model-selection criterion (PIC) and objective posterior odds tests for sharp null hypotheses like the presence of a unit root. This extends earlier work by Phillips and Ploberger [18]. Autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) models are considered, and a general test of trend-stationarity versus difference stationarity is developed in ARMA models that allow for automatic order selection of the stochastic regressors and the degree of the deterministic trend. The tests are completely consistent in that both type I and type II errors tend to zero as the sample size tends to infinity. Simulation results and an empirical application are reported. The simulations show that the PIC works very well and is generally superior to the Schwarz BIC criterion, even in stationary systems. Empirical application of our methods to the Nelson-Plosser [11] series show that three series (unemployment, industrial production, and the money stock) are level- or trend-stationary. The other eleven series are found to be stochastically nonstationary.
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  • 31
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 1-1 
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  • 32
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 443-448 
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 29-52 
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: This paper investigates the sampling behavior of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of the Gaussian GARCH(1,1) model. The rescaled variable (the ratio of the disturbance to the conditional standard deviation) is not required to be Gaussian nor independent over time, in contrast to the current literature. The GARCH process may be integrated (α + β = 1), or even mildly explosive (α + β 〉 1). A bounded conditional fourth moment of the rescaled variable is sufficient for the results. Consistent estimation and asymptotic normality are demonstrated, as well as consistent estimation of the asymptotic covariance matrix.
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  • 34
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 91-115 
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: This paper proposes a residual-based test of the null of cointegration using a structural single equation model. It is shown that the limiting distribution of the test statistic for cointegration can be made free of nuisance parameters when the cointegrating relation is efficiently estimated. The limiting distributions are given in terms of a mixture of a Brownian bridge and vector Brownian motion. It is also shown that this test is consistent. Critical values are given for standard, demeaned, and detrended cases. Combining results from our test for cointegration with results from the Phillips-Ouliaris test for no cointegration, we find that there is evidence of cointegration between real consumption and real disposable income over the postwar period.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 130-139 
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: In this paper, we derive an instrumental variables estimator for the generalized Hausman and Taylor [4] model with a two-way error component. We also extend the work of Breusch, Mizon, and Schmidt [2] to this model and derive two additional instrumental variables estimators. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the parameter estimator is demonstrated, allowing both the number of time periods as well as the number of individuals to increase, their ratio bounded. Consistent estimates of the variance components are discussed.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 221-222 
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 1-2 
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    Topics: Ethnic Sciences , History , Political Science , Economics
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 1-11 
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    Topics: Ethnic Sciences , History , Political Science , Economics
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 833-874 
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    Topics: Ethnic Sciences , History , Political Science , Economics
    Notes: The vital importance of the Indian Army as the guardian of the imperial order in India was never more evident than during the interwar years. The period from 1919 to the outbreak of the Second World War in 1939 was a testing time for the Raj; state authority was being challenged by a mounting nationalist movement, and public order was frequently disrupted by civil disobedience campaigns, as well as recurrent outbreaks of communal violence. In maintaining public order the colonial state had always been prepared to rely on that ultimate guarantee of its authority and power–the Indian Army. However, in frequent discussions of the deployment of the military in 'aid of civil power', the continued loyalty of the bulk of the army the Indian soldiers and officers, was never questioned, and seemed to be taken for granted.2 Yet, both the Government of India and the to be taken for granted.2 Yet, both the Government of India and the Army Headquarters were well awar that the 'loyalty' of the Army could never be guaranteed, and that it was conditional upon a stable and pacified recruiting base; if that base were to be 'subverted', then the Indian Army, or portions of it, would not only cease to be of use as an instrument of state power, but could ultimately pose a threat to the Raj itself
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 1-11 
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 475-502 
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    Notes: In the late 1960s and early 1970s, the Sino-Soviet conflict intensified and at the same time the Sino-American rapprochement was well under way. When the Americans began to search for an answer to the question of ‘Why Vietnam’, some US foreign relation documents in the later 1940s were released, which indicated that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) had made certain friendly overtures toward the United States. Since then, it has become a widely-accepted interpretation among scholars that Washington ‘lost a chance’ to win over the CCP from Moscow in the late 1940s. The fundamental premise of this interpretation is that the CCP earnestly bid for American friendship and support as a counterweight to pressure from the Soviet Union. It is argued that the CCP sincerely sought the US recognition right up to the middle of and that it was only after their bids for American support were rejected by Washington that the Communists had to choose the ‘lean-to-one-side’ policy. In short, Washington's shortsighted policy in 1949 ‘forced Beijing into Moscow's embrace’, and therefore set in motion a train of disastrous events: the Korean War and the Vietnam War. A promising postwar Asian balance in favour of the US was ruined.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 615-647 
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    Notes: A puzzling feature of interwar Anglo-Indian economic relations is the contrast between Whitehall's relatively hands-off attitude to Indian tariff policies, and its insistent hands-on approach to monetary policy issues in the colony. Both sets of issues were, at various times, equally contentious. But while Britain's strategic objectives in India paved the way for the Fiscal Autonomy Convention, the road towards a similar monetary ‘convention’ was never taken. Rather, thanks to Britain's external financial problems, the interwar decades saw initially a tightening, and later a refinement, of London's control over Indian monetary policies. This paper hopes to set out the processes at work more clearly than has been attempted before, and to account for them. The interpretation offered here is consistent with the ‘gentlemanly capitalism’ explanation of British imperialism during the interwar years, and of the postwar de-colonization process.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 673-737 
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    Notes: Some write because they travel, and some travel because they write. A large number of progessional writers, not just travel-writers, have derived inspiration from travel: equally, a large number of travellers, who are not professional writers, have nevertheless often felt compelled to encapsulate their experience in literary form. It is the aim of this paper to survey such British travel literature relating to Southeast Asia during the period of massive transformation dating approximately from the ‘20S to the ’ 50S of this century. It is not intended to be comprehensive, but representative of the major landmarks of that literature along with some lesser-known works of particular interest.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 875-889 
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    Notes: Most studies have concentrated on the Muslim League's political activities and objectives. It is generally believed that it lacked a distinctive economic programme and unequivocally favoured private enterprise. The radical economic ideas produced by its Punjab and Bengal branches are attributed to a handful of activists who received short shrift from the High Command. The League's stance is thus contrasted with the Congress which addressed economic issues from a largely Socialist perpective.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 533-556 
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    Notes: Writing to John Morley, the Secretary of State for India, a few days after the first terrorist bomb was thrown by a Bengali, the Viceroy Lord Minto declared that the conspirators aimed ‘at the furtherance of murderous methods hitherto unknown in India which have been imported from the West, and which the imitative Bengali has childishly accepted’.This notion later was taken up and developed by Times correspondent Valentine Chirol, who wrote that Bengalis had ‘of all Indians been the most slavish imitators of the West, as represented, at any rate, by the Irish Fenian and the Russian anarchist’. Chirol went on to say that ‘European works on various periods of revolutionary history figure almost invariably amongst seizures of a far more compromising character whenever the Indian police raids some centre of Nationalist activity.’ This indicated that Bengali revolutionary terrorism was simply a takeoff on the European variety. The only indigenous element in it was the dangerous infusion of Hindu religious fanaticism.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 216-217 
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 589-614 
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    Notes: Few books are exemplars of real hard work sustained over a lengthy period of time as is John Smith's The Epic of Pabuji(1991). Starting his investigation of the scroll of cloth painting in 1973, a huge structure measuring fifteen feet by four, locally termed par, before which this epic is sung by a special caste of people, lower in hierarchy, called Naik Bhopa, Smith in a span of eighteen years has accomplished a work of lasting stay in the ethnographic tradition of south Asia as well as the discipline of folklore in general. Before this book was published, he had also contributed some important papers (in 1986 and 1989) on Pabu-ji. As far as I know, it is rare that Sanskritists, which Smith is at Cambridge, pay attention to ‘popular (or “non-Sanskritic”) traditions’ of people, and if at all they do, introducing the anthropological method of fieldwork in their study, their works are still laden with Indological references and scholarship where the actual voice of people is lost in oblivion or relegated to the back seat. But it does not happen with Smith; he is not only committed to listening to people's voice in its own right and place, but also provides a fair, up to date, and scholarly account of Pabu-ji's story and its role and niche in the local culture of Rajasthan. Therefore, his work is also of considerable interest to anthropologists, especially those working on the sociology of cult, popular religion, and non- literate traditions and their meanings.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 1-2 
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 439-447 
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 461-482 
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    Notes: Various approaches to the development of a noninformative prior for the AR(1) model are considered and compared. Particular attention is given to the reference prior approach, which seems to work well for the stationary case but encounters difficulties in the explosive case. A symmetrized (proper) version of the stationary reference prior is ultimately recommended for the problem. Bayesian testing of the unit root, stationary, and explosive hypotheses is considered also. Bounds on the Bayes factors are developed and shown to yield answers that appear to conflict with classical tests.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 579-595 
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    Notes: Two issues have come up in the specification of a prior in the Bayesian analysis of time series with possible unit roots. The first issue deals with the singularity that is due to the local identification problem of the unconditional mean of an AR(1) process in the limit of a random walk. This singularity problem is related to the difference between a structural parameterization and the linear reduced form in a standard regression model with fixed regressors. The second is related to the time series nature of the regressor in an AR(1) model. In this paper we will concentrate on the parameterization issue. First, it is shown that the posterior of the autoregressive parameter can be very sensitive to the degree of prior dependence between the unconditional mean and the autocorrelation parameter. Second, the time series nature of the problem suggests a particular form of this dependence.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 483-513 
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    Notes: A model is suggested to forecast economic time series. This model incorporates some innovative ideas of Harrison and Stevens [20] for building into the forecasting process important external shocks to the systems. Thus the occurrence of possibly significant real-world events may cause a fundamental change in the time series in question. The Jeffreys-Savage (JS) Bayesian theory of hypothesis testing is used to test the hypothesis that a particular event has been such as to free the series from its immediate past behavior. When the event frees the series in this way, then we model the sequence of observations following such an event (until the next such event) as an exchangeable sequence. In the simplest case of 0–1 valued data, such as in recording the ups and downs of the value of a particular commodity or stock, our alternative hypothesis is a Pólya process, and the null hypothesis is a simple random walk (unit roots model) with p = .50. Any exchangeable sequence is strictly stationary, and the observations in the Polya process are positively correlated, which can give rise to “explosive” behavior of the series at isolated time points. We then use the JS theory to predict future observations by taking a weighted average of the optimal predictions for each model, with weights given by the posterior probabilities of the hypotheses. Results of simulation studies are presented which compare the predictive performance of the fully Bayesian method based upon the JS theory with those based upon the “p-value” or pre-test method. The de Finetti method for scoring predictions is used to assess their empirical performance. A theoretical methodology, which extends the “evaluation game” of Hill [28,37], is developed for comparing predictors.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 917-936 
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    Notes: This paper considers the unit root tests in models with structural change. Particular attention is given to their dependency on the limiting ratios of the subsample sizes between breaks. The dependency is analyzed in detail, and the invariant testing procedure based on a transformed model is developed. The required transformation is essentially identical to the generalized least-squares correction for heteroskedasticity. The limiting distributions of the new tests do not depend on the relative sizes of the subsamples and are shown to be simple mixtures of the limiting distributions of the corresponding tests from the independent unit root models without structural change.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 968-969 
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 969-969 
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 971-976 
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 286-315 
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    Notes: This paper proposes a new approach to modeling heteroskedastidty which enables the modeler to utilize information conveyed by data plots in making informed decisions on the form and structure of heteroskedasticity. It extends the well-known normal/linear/homoskedastic models to a family of non-normal/linear/heteroskedastic models. The non-normality is kept within the bounds of the elliptically symmetric family of multivariate distributions (and in particular the Student's t distribution) that lead to several forms of heteroskedasticity, including quadratic and exponential functions of the conditioning variables. The choice of the latter family is motivated by the fact that it enables us to model some of the main sources of heteroskedasticity: “thicktails,” individual heterogeneity, and nonlinear dependence. A common feature of the proposed class of regression models is that the weak exogeneity assumption is inappropriate. The estimation of these models, without the weak exogeneity assumption, is discussed, and the results are illustrated by using cross-section data on charitable contributions.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 316-356 
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    Notes: Let F denote a distribution function defined on the probability space (Ω,[...],P), which is absolutely continuous with respect to the Lebesgue measure in Rd with probability density function f. Let f0(·,β) be a parametric density function that depends on an unknown p × 1 vector β. In this paper, we consider tests of the goodness-of-fit of f0(·,β) for f(·) for some β based on (i) the integrated squared difference between a kernel estimate of f(·) and the quasimaximum likelihood estimate of f0(·,β) denoted by In and (ii) the integrated squared difference between a kernel estimate of f(·) and the corresponding kernel smoothed estimate of f0(·, β) denoted by Jn. It is shown in this paper that the amount of smoothing applied to the data in constructing the kernel estimate of f(·) determines the form of the test statistic based on In. For each test developed, we also examine its asymptotic properties including consistency and the local power property. In particular, we show that tests developed in this paper, except the first one, are more powerful than the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test under the sequence of local alternatives introduced in Rosenblatt [12], although they are less powerful than the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test under the sequence of Pitman alternatives. A small simulation study is carried out to examine the finite sample performance of one of these tests.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 409-418 
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    Notes: In this comment on Gurmu and Trivedi's “Variable Augmentation Specification Tests in the Linear Exponential Family,” I show how their generalized linear model (GLM) approach relates to other work in econometrics on specification testing in the linear exponential family. In addition to shedding light on the relationship between the statistics and econometrics literatures on testing in quasi-likelihood frameworks, this comparison reveals some important limitations of GLM as a general framework for devising specification tests.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 439-439 
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 609-632 
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    Notes: This paper takes up Bayesian inference in a general trend stationary model for macroeconomic time series with independent Student-t disturbances. The model is linear in the data, but nonlinear in parameters. An informative but nonconjugate family of prior distributions for the parameters is introduced, indexed by a single parameter that can be readily elicited. The main technical contribution is the construction of posterior moments, densities, and odd ratios by using a six-step Gibbs sampler. Mappings from the index parameter of the family of prior distribution to posterior moments, densities, and odds ratios are developed for several of the Nelson–Plosser time series. These mappings show that the posterior distribution is not even approximately Gaussian, and they indicate the sensitivity of the posterior odds ratio in favor of difference stationarity to the choice of the prior distribution.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 672-700 
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    Notes: The distribution of statistics testing restrictions on the coefficients in time series regressions can depend on the order of integration of the regressors. In practice, the order of integration is rarely known. We examine two conventional approaches to this problem — simply to ignore unit root problems or to use unit root pretests to determine the critical values for second-stage inference—and show that both exhibit substantial size distortions in empirically plausible situations. We then propose an alternative approach in which the second-stage critical values depend continuously on a first-stage statistic that is informative about the order of integration of the regressor. This procedure has the correct size asymptotically and good local asymptotic power.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 720-746 
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    Notes: This paper proposes residual-based tests for the null of level- and trend-stationarity, which are analogs of the LM test for an MA unit root. Asymptotic distributions of the tests are nonstandard, but they are expressed in a unified manner by expressing stochastic integrals. In addition, the tests are shown to be consistent. By expressing the distributions expressed as a function of a chi-square variable with one degree of freedom, the exact limiting probability density and cumulative distribution functions are obtained, and the exact limiting cumulative distribution functions are tabulated. Finite sample performance of the proposed tests is studied by simulation. The tests display stable size when the lag truncation number for the long-run variance estimation is chosen appropriately. But the power of the tests is generally not high at selected sample sizes. The test for the null of trend-stationarity is applied to the U.S. macroeconomic time series along with the Phillips-Perron Z(⋯) test. For some monthly and annual series, the two tests provide consistent inferential results. But for most series, the two contradictory nulls of trend-stationarity and a unit root cannot be rejected at the conventional significance levels.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 372-395 
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    Notes: We prove [...]-consistency and asymptotic normality of a generalized semiparametric regression estimator that includes as special cases Ichimura's semiparametric least-squares estimator for single index models, and the estimator of Klein and Spady for the binary choice regression model. Two function expansions reveal a type of U-process structure in the criterion function; then new U-process maximal inequalities are applied to establish the requisite stochastic equicontinuity condition. This method of proof avoids much of the technical detail required by more traditional methods of analysis. The general framework suggests other [...]-consistent and asymptotically normal estimators.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 435-438 
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 440-440 
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 442-443 
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 223-224 
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 224-225 
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 172-197 
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    Notes: This paper explores the robustness of minimum distance (GMM) estimators focusing particularly on the effect of intermediate covariance matrix estimation on final estimator performance. Asymptotic expansions to order Op(n−3/2) are employed to construct O(n−2) expansions for the variance of estimators constructed from preliminary least-squares and general M-estimators. In the former case, there is a rather curious robustifying effect due to estimation of the Eicker-White covariance matrix for error distributions with sufficiently large kurtosis.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 441-442 
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 1-2 
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 1-49 
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    Notes: Sabah (previously known as British North Borneo) occupies the whole of the northern portion of the island of Borneo, covering an area of 76, 115 square kilometres. Its immediate neighbours are Brunei, Sarawak and Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo). From 1882 to 1942, Sabah was administered by the British North Borneo (Chartered) Company. The territory possessed three main attractions: its timber, its reputed minerals and its land. Timber has now grown to be amajor export commodity, second only to petroleum. With the exception of deposits of coal and some gold, economic resources of other sought-after minerals were not proven during the period. The land proved to be the most valuable asset. Many crops were experimented with: tobacco, sugar cane, coffee, coconuts and rubber and they laid the basis for the economic development of the territory. The expansion of these crops was largely assisted by the introduction of a modern transport system which supplemented the original means of communication, the rivers. The railway in particular provided the impetus for the rubber boom on the west coast. In turn, this resulted in the emergence of an export-oriented economy, specializing in rubber, timber, copra and tobacco. From 1942, Sabah was occupied by the Japanese until its liberation in 1945. After a brief period under military administration, it became a British Colony in 1946. Under colonial rule from 1946 to 1963 the previous pattern of economic exploitation continued.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 1-2 
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 225-250 
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    Notes: One of the most innovative aspects of forest policy in colonial Burma was the employment of shifting cultivators in order to create teak plantations. As developed in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, this system of plantation forestry represented an far-sighted attempt to establish teak production on a long-term basis. Indeed, its adaptation of what many colonial officials viewed as a destructive and primitive form of agriculture to more ‘useful’ end, guaranteed its popularity in a broader imperial context. Even today, the use of shifting cultivators for commercial tree planting remains an acknowledged agroforestry technique, and is promoted as a cure for various social and ecological problems.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 317-337 
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    Notes: Attempts to examine Hong Kong as an issue in British postwar colonial policy often emphasize the unique nature of the colony, and therefore a special case in British decolonization. Hong Kong has been regarded as an unconventional colonial entity, an anachronism in the modern world. But others argue that the word colony is not an appropriate term to describe it, except in the most severely technical legal sense, because of its spectacular industrial and economic development since the end of the Second World War. Nonetheless, Hong Kong has existed as a British crown colony since 1842, and its colonial political structures have remained more or less the same until the early 1980s. Hong Kong's special relations with China is an important factor making it an oddity in post-war British decolonization. Instead of becoming independent like most other British colonialterritories, Hong Kong's political future is linked to China. This situation of ‘decolonization without independence’ has been an important theme of academic analysis on the colony's political development.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 431-438 
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 77-98 
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    Notes: Comparatively little of a scholarly nature has been written about Indonesian trade unions, particularly on the two decades from 1945 to 1965 when, like the political parties to which so many of them were affiliated, the unions had their heyday. This paper focuses on the development of trade unions in one specific industry: refined sugar production. The period to be examined—1945 to 1949—runs from the proclamation of Indonesian independence by Sukarno and Hatta, through the revolution fought against the returning Dutch, to December 1949 when the Netherlands finally acknowledged Indonesian independence. It was during this period that the major post-war sugar industry unions were established. The circumstances surrounding the establishment of these unions will be examined, along with their leaders and members, ideological leanings and political and industrial objectives.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 129-164 
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    Notes: Although it would now seem established beyond question that agriculture in most parts of India had been exposed to commercial influences from medieval times, there can be little doubt that a variety of developments from the second half of the nineteenth century greatly strengthened those influences. Railways and road transport made possible a huge expansion in cash cropping, for national and international markets, and production regimes across the subcontinent were placed in a new context of opportunity—and of pressure. While so much would scarcely be disputed among historians, what has become—and remained—more controversial, however, is an understanding of the implications of this extended commercial logic for agrarian economy and society. Since colonial times, opinions would seem to have been divided between ‘optimists’, for whom commercialization marked progress and a growing prosperity for all; ‘pessimists’, for whom it marked regress into deepening class stratification and mass pauperization; and ‘sceptics’ who held that it made very little difference and that its impact was largely absorbed by preexisting structures of wealth accumulation and power on the land.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 223-224 
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    Modern Asian studies 18 (1984), S. 1-3 
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    Modern Asian studies 18 (1984), S. 541-553 
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    Notes: The continuities between the study of the West through Dutch in Tokugawa Japan and the program of modernization in the Meiji period seem self evident. The influence of Holland through Deshima became the focus of the life work of Itazawa Takeo and others well before the war, and it received detailed discussion from Charles Boxer in 1936. Nevertheless issues of the importance and influence of Tokugawa rangaku continue to be debated, and that debate greatly enriches our feel for Japanese society then and now.
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    Modern Asian studies 18 (1984), S. 567-580 
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    Notes: Little did it occur to me when I began to translate Ogyū Sorai's Kyōchūkikō (‘Report from Journey to Kai’) some years ago that this endeavour would lead me to the first work that was written by this philosopher. Even after I had shown that the Kyōchūkikō was only a new and shorter edition (1710) of the earlier travelogue Fūryūshishaki (‘Report of the Elegant Emissaries’), written in 1706, it still took time before I realized that this must be the very first work to come from Sorai's brush. The Fūryūshishaki must be his first work and this means that he was 40 before he wrote anything that was literary, and of any length. What we have from before that time are short pieces, letters, poems, and memoranda; also the lexical work Yakubun sentei, which was probably written, at least partially, before 1706.
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    Modern Asian studies 18 (1984), S. 609-618 
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    Notes: Long ago in my early reading on Japanese literature and thought—I think I was studying G. W. Knox and A. Lloyd in their essays in Transactions of the Asiatic Society of Japan—the name of Fujiwara Seika was mentioned as that of the founder of a movement of great historical importance. But until very recently the history of Japanese culture has not aroused much interest, and the local neo-Confucianism tended to be seen as a pretty poor reproduction of the Chinese models. This assessment of Japanese culture in such modest terms was accompanied by the standardized conception that saw in Shushigaku nothing more meaningful than an instrument of power in the hands of the Tokugawa family, a kind of intellectual build-up stimulated and protected merely because it served to prop up the régime that Ieyasu had founded, and to organize support for it.
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    Modern Asian studies 18 (1984), S. 647-656 
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    Notes: In 1568, Oda Nobunaga (1534–82) entered Kyoto. The warring daimyō of a small domain of Owari was about to begin the occupation of the capital with a great army rumored to be fifty or sixty thousand strong.
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    Modern Asian studies 18 (1984), S. 685-697 
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    Notes: The opening up of Japan to the west and the consequent influences of the west and of Japan upon each other are remarkable for many reasons, not least of which is the interchange of styles and techniques of the arts and crafts one to the other. The export of Japanese works of art, and the influence upon European artistic production during the Meiji period (though often of works produced during the Edo period) have all but obscured the remarkable effects Japanese export art had upon the west during the period of self-imposed semi-isolation. Of course Japan was also greatly influenced by western art; that is not the subject of this paper, but it is a subject of great interest, worthy of considerable attention.
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    Modern Asian studies 18 (1984), S. 747-755 
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    Notes: Edo culture, in spite of its continuing presence, was not highly valued in the Meiji period. In the Taishō period, when Westernization was again at a high tide, the cult of Edo developed among minorities. In the war years of Shōwa, 1931–1945, when the cult of Japan was widely subscribed to, the cult of Edo was at its lowest ebb. The same unpopularity continued during the Occupating period, 1945–1952. After 1952, in parallel to economic recovery and accelerated industrialization, the cult of Edo emerged in the field of young people's fashion as an expression of their yearning for simple living.
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    Modern Asian studies 18 (1984), S. 1-6 
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    Modern Asian studies 18 (1984), S. 393-428 
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    Notes: The British Empire established itself and expanded largely through its incorporation of existing indigenous political structures. A single British Resident or Political Agent, controlling a regional state through ‘advice’ given to the local prince or chief, became the norm for much of the Empire. India's princely states, where from the mid-eighteenth century the British first employed and developed this system of indirect rule, stood as the conscious model for later imperial administrators and politicians who wished to extend the Empire without the economic and political costs of direct annexation. In dealing with Malaya, East and West Africa from the mid-nineteenth century onward, officials in the field and notables in London sought to justify imperial expansion and to establish indirect rule efficiently by drawing upon the Indian example.Thus, during a century of empirical learning from relations with India'sprincely states, the British established a body of theory and policies about indirect rule which then spread throughout the rest of the Empire.
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    Modern Asian studies 18 (1984), S. 459-489 
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    Notes: A cornerstone of Wallerstein's (1974) theory of the capitalist world system is that economic development occurs in certain (core) regions of the world system at the expense of development in other (peripheral) regions. This thesis, accepted in one form or another by scholars following a dependency, neo-Marxist, or unequal exchange conception of economic development (as, for example, Amin 1976 or Laclau 1971; see discussion in Foster-Carter 1973 and Kahn 1980: 203ff) provides the foundation for their avowal of the ‘development of underdevelopment.’ The development of the core industrial capitalist nations required, so they argue, the distorted and repressed economic development of the third world.
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    Modern Asian studies 18 (1984), S. 491-514 
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    Notes: My main concern in this article is with statistics relating to such basic matters as the sizes of farm-holdings, the output and yield of crops, household income and expenditure, occupational statistics, cattle ownership, the sizes of villages, etc.—though I shall also range more widely. While the distinct and professional field of demographic statistics is necessarily outside my scope, I shall criticize some features of the Karnataka population census.Although since 1953 most of my fieldwork has been undertaken in the West African countryside, I am obliged to take most of my examples of bad statistics from south India, since West African statistics, which were never abundant, are now scantier than ever. Throughout my discussion I take it for granted that the lack of reliable statistics gravely impairs our understanding of the working of tropical rural economies.
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    Modern Asian studies 18 (1984), S. 527-527 
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    Modern Asian studies 18 (1984), S. 215-236 
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    Notes: INDIAN hill stations have often been portrayed as islands of European settlement, providing colonists with a retreat, both from the heat and the native culture of the plains.British planners meant them to be English enclaves, but the image owes not a little to the innumerable references available in accounts written by the British in India. Hill stations, with their thickly wooded hills and swirling mist, afforded colonists an opportunity to build around themselves a replica of English life. The presence of European women in large numbers at hill stations enhanced the image. They, more than their men, tended to withdraw within the closed circle of European society. It was an endless succession of balls, archery, fetes, picnics and amateur theatre. Their diaries, letters and novels covering almost a century, hardly ever went beyond an account of the rounds of social engagements. The view has been perpetuated by fiction. Simla had its Rudyard Kipling, and that hill station was peopled by larger-than-life images created by the writer in the 1880s. But so vivid was the evocation that British visitors seemed to search for them in Simla even a quarter of a century later.
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    Modern Asian studies 18 (1984), S. 307-330 
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    Notes: As had been the case throughout much of Chinese history, government during the Ch'ing dynasty (1644–1911) was largely in the hands of a civil bureaucracy staffed by the Confucian literati. Prevailing political thought held that moral suasion and commonly held ideals were in a large way responsible for keeping both the society and the body politic running smoothly. For this and other reasons, the court assigned a rather small number of bureaucrats to manage a truly vast population. In addition, it was commonly assumed by rulers and the ruled that China's was and should be primarily an agrarian society of self-sufficient peasants. The only orthodox avenue of social, even spatial, mobility was the Confucian examination system which led successful candidates into the bureaucracy. This view denigrated the importance of commerce, of technological advancement, of learning outside the Confucian classics; and it acted as a brake on social, political, and economic development.
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    Modern Asian studies 18 (1984), S. 593-608 
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    Notes: A curious and as yet little discussed phenomenon of the Edo period is the immense increase among ordinary lay people in journeys of pilgrimage. From the middle of the seventeenth century people of all classes, alone and in groups, began to make their way in ever larger throngs to the Ise Shrines, to Kōyasan, to Zenkōji, to Fujisan, and to the various circuits of thirty-three places dedicated to Kannon and the eighty-eight places dedicated to Kōbō Daishi.
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    Modern Asian studies 18 (1984), S. 631-645 
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    Notes: The formal, authoritarian organization of people with similar occupations or interests has been a feature of Japanese society throughout its history. As such, it must be of interest for its own sake and, no less perhaps, for the indications it can provide of the nature of Japanese society as a whole.
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    Modern Asian studies 18 (1984), S. 699-709 
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    Notes: Hiiki is the word commonly used for support given to a Kabuki actor, or for the supporter or fan himself. It can be applied to other sorts of ‘fan’, such as one who follows a particular sumō wrestler. The derivation of the word is not certain, but it is generally taken as a lengthened form of hiki, with a meaning of ‘pulling’ or ‘pulling together’. The clubs themselves were known as hiiki renchū, the last element having the alternative pronunciation renjū. Throughout this paper, ‘hiiki’, ‘supporter’ and ‘fan’ have been used indiscriminately with the same meaning.
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    Modern Asian studies 18 (1984), S. 711-723 
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    Notes: The more spectacular incidents in the career of Utaemon III (1778–1838) took place in Osaka. They include a fierce rivalry with the Arashi family, especially Rikan I (1769–1821), and a later career characterized by a marked reluctance to retire. In this account of his life, much use will be made of the documentary evidence of Osaka actor prints, and also of banzuke, which are the programmes of performances at a particular theatre. Banzuke come in various forms, including the illustrated ones called e-banzuke, more or less abbreviated ones such as those used apparently rather like fly-posters for circuses in England (tsuji-banzuke, put up at street-corners), and the standard form which lists the roles and those who performed them, names of musicians, name of zamoto or manager, theatre, date, and so on. Many libraries have collections of these available for inspection, but I should like to mention here another source. In the Waseda University Theatre Museum there survives a sort of theatrical scrap-book, consisting of boxes of made-up books with materials from the 1620s to 1827, but in fuller detail for the period of the life of Utaemon III, which was of great interest to the compiler, who is thought to have been a wealthy Osaka ginseng merchant and kabuki fan called Yoshida Goun, who employed Hamamatsu Utakuni, a well-known theatrical critic, to collect the material, order illustrations from artists, write explanatory pieces, arrange and catalogue it.
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