ALBERT

Description: A meteorological overview of the Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE 3A) flight series is presented. Synoptic analyses of mid-tropospheric circulation patterns are combined with isentropic back trajectory calculations to describe the long-range (400-3000 km) atmospheric transport mechanisms and pathways of air masses to the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions of North America during July and August 1988. Siberia and the northern Pacific Ocean were found to be the two most likely source areas for 3-day transport to the study areas in Alaska. Transport to the Barrow region was frequently influenced by polar vortices and associated short-wave troughs over the Arctic Ocean, while the Bethel area was most often affected by lows migrating across the Bering Sea and the Gulf of Alaska, as well as ridges of high pressure which built into interior Alaska. July 1988 was warmer and dryer than normal over much of Alaska. As a result, the 1988 Alaska fire season was one of the most active of the past decade. Airborne lidar measurements verified the presence of biomass burning plumes on many flights, often trapped in thin subsidence layer temperature inversions. Several cases of stratosphere/troposphere exchange were noted, based upon potential vorticity analyses and aircraft lidar data, especially in the Barrow region and during transit flights to and from Alaska.

Description: The aerosol optical depth over the Konza Prairie, near Manhattan, Kansas, was recorded at various locations by five separate teams. These measurements were made in support of the First ISLSCP Field Experiment (FIFE) and used to correct imagery from a variety of satellite and aircraft sensors for the effects of atmospheric scattering and absorption. The results from one instrument are reported here for 26 days in 1987 and for 7 in 1989. Daily averages span a range of 0.05 to 0.28 in the midvisible wavelengths. In addition, diurnal variations are noted in which the afternoon optical depths are greater than those of the morning by as much as 0.07. A comparison between instruments and processing techniques used to determine these aerosol optical depths is provided. The first comparisons are made using summer 1987 data. Differences of as much as 0.05 (midvisible) are observed. Although these data allow reasonable surface reflectance retrievals, they do not agree to within the performance limits typically associated with these types of instruments. With an accuracy goal of 0.02 a preseason calibration/comparison experiment was conducted at a mountain site prior to the final field campaign in 1989. Good calibration data were obtained, and good agreement (0.01, midvisible) was observed in the retrieved optical depth acquired over the Konza. By comparing data from the surface instruments at different locations, spatial inhomogeneities are determined. Then, data from the airborne tracking sunphotometer allow one to determine variations as a function of altitude. Finally, a technique is proposed for using the in situ data to establish an instrument calibration.

Description: The underlying mean and variance properties of surface net radiation, sensible-latent heat fluxes and soil heat flux are studied over the densely instrumented grassland region encompassing FIFE. Flux variability is discussed together with the problem of scaling up to area-averaged fluxes. Results are compared and contrasted for cloudy and clear situations and examined for the influence of surface-induced biophysical controls (burn and grazing treatments) and topographic controls (aspect ratios and slope factors).

Description: Airborne measurements of flux densities of carbon dioxide CO2, sensible heat, and latent heat (H2O) obtained over the First ISLSCP Field Experiment (FIFE) site during three intensive field campaigns in 1987 and one in 1989 are examined to characterize the spatial and temporal variations of CO2 and energy transfer processes. These data were collected by the National Research Council Twin Otter using low-level flight patterns, all flown at constant pressure altitude during relatively clear days. The spatial variations are larger in 1989 than in 1987 and a higher correlation is observed between the fluxes and the surface features. The temporal patterns are easier to characterize with the relatively homogeneous situation of 1987. Functional relationships obtained between fluxes of CO2 and latent heat, CO2 fluxes and greenness index, latent heat fluxes and greenness index, and between sensible heat fluxes and surface air temperature differences are presented for one day in 1987 and one in 1989 as an example of the kind of information that can be obtained from grid flights at constant pressure altitude.

Description: Radiometric measurements at 90 GHz and three sideband frequencies near the peak water vapor absorption line of 183.3 GHz were made with Advanced Microwave Moisture Sounder (AMMS) aboard the NASA DC-8 aircraft during the Global Aerosol Backscatter Experiment (GLOBE) mission over the Pacific Ocean in November 1989. Some of the measurements over the high-latitude regions (greater than 50 deg N or 50 deg S) were analyzed for the retrieval of total precipitable water less than 0.5 g/sq cm both over land and ocean surfaces. The results show that total precipitable water from a relatively dry atmosphere could be estimated with high sensitivity from these radiometric measurements. The retrieved values over ocean surface show a decrease toward the polar region as expected. The retrieved total precipitable water over land correlates positively with the aircraft radar altitude. This positive correlation is expected because the aircraft radar altitude provides a measure of atmospheric water vapor burden above the surface. Retrieved high reflectivities over land surface at 90 GHz and 183 GHz are presumably related to snow cover on the ground. This suggests that radiometric measurements at these frequencies could be used to map snow at high-latitude regions.

Description: The vicinity of KSC, where the primary ground truth site of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) program is located, was the focal point of the Convection and Precipitation/Electrification (CaPE) experiment in July and Aug. 1991. In addition to several specialized radars, local coverage was provided by the C-band (5 cm) radar at Patrick AFB. Point measurements of rain rate were provided by tipping bucket rain gage networks. Besides these ground-based activities, airborne radar measurements with X- and Ka-band nadir-looking radars on board an aircraft were also recorded. A unique combination data set of airborne radar observations with ground-based observations was obtained in the summer convective rain regime of central Florida. We present a comparison of these data intending a preliminary validation. A convective rain event was observed simultaneously by all three instrument types on the evening of 27 July 1991. The high resolution aircraft radar was flown over convective cells with tops exceeding 10 km and observed reflectivities of 40 to 50 dBZ at 4 to 5 km altitude, while the low resolution surface radar observed 35 to 55 dBZ echoes and a rain gage indicated maximum surface rain rates exceeding 100 mm/hr. The height profile of reflectivity measured with the airborne radar show an attenuation of 6.5 dB/km (two way) for X-band, corresponding to a rainfall rate of 95 mm/hr.

Description: The Space Shuttle provides a unique perspective for cloud observation. From it, an observer can simulataneously view the grand scale and individual microscale components. An observer can differentiate between the exceptional and the routine and rapidly identify the phenomenon of interest. The capabilities include multiple aspect viewing, vision enhancement, instant data transmission, and the intelligence and decision-making ability required for meaningful selective observations. When these observations are used with other information, an improved understanding of the processes follows. Examples of these data and their application with other information sources are given along with suggestions for research.

Description: Flash rates measured from the Space Shuttle range from 27.8 flashes per minute to 77 flashes per minute. The cloud is an optically thick medium which effectively scatters the energy from a lightning discharge and thereby broadens the risetime and duration of each lightning pulse. Because of the small size, spacecraft sensors with resolutions of 1 km or more are unlikely to detect the individual lightning channels. Instead, the energy from the lightning channel is scattered within the cloud, thereby broadening the apparent area. All of these measurements of lightning flash area and flash rate have involved manual manipulation and analysis of the video or film data. Only a small percentage of the Space Shuttle lightning video has been analyzed. An attempt is made to combine the use of real-time digital disk system and an automated analysis routine in order to overcome this limitation and make processing of a sequence of video frames a much less labor-intensive task.

Description: A millimeter-wave imaging radiometer (MIR) developed by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center is described. The MIR is a nine-channel total power radiometer developed for atmospheric research. Three dual-pass band channels are centered about the strongly opaque 183-GHz water vapor absorption line; the frequencies are 183 +/- 1, +/- 3, and +/- 7 GHz. Another channel is located on the wing of this band at 150 GHz. These four channels have varying degrees of opacity from which the water vapor profile can be inferred. The design and salient characteristics of this instrument are discussed, together with its expected benefits.

Description: A new generation of automatic sunphotometers is used to systematically monitor clear sky total column aerosol concentration and optical properties, precipitable water and total column ozone diurnally and annually in West Africa and South America. The instruments are designed to measure direct beam sun, solar aureole and sky radiances in nine narrow spectral bands from the UV to the near infrared on an hourly basis. The instrumentation and the algorithms required to reduce the data for subsequent analysis are described.

Description: The NOAA's Spaceflight Meteorology Group has used the point forecast output from the Global Profile Archive and Global Profile Archive since 1990, and found this product to allow forecasters to examine the MRF model in a vertical profile, and thereby determine how different model parameters behave over time. Attention is presently given to the use of these resources in the illustrative case of the STS-40 mission, over northwestern Spain.

Description: Passive microwave data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) were used to estimate the amount of rainfall in the June-August season for the regions of the southwest U.S. and Mexico, and the results are compared to rain-gauge observations and to IR climatologies of Maddox et al. (1992), using both the hourly IR data and IR data sampled at the time of the overpass of the SSM/I. A comparison of the microwave climatology with monthly rainfall measured by the climatological gage network over several states of western Mexico resulted in a 0.63 correlation and a large (482 mm) bias, due to sampling and the incongruity of rain gages and satellite estimates. A comparison between the IR and microwave data showed that the IR tended toward higher percentages along the coast compared to the microwave.

Description: From 1979 through 1987, it is believed that variability in the incoming solar energy played a significant role in changing the Earth's climate. Using high-precision spacecraft radiometric measurements, the incoming total solar irradiance (total amount of solar power per unit area) and the Earth's mean, global atmospheric temperatures were found to vary in phase with each other. The observed irradiance and temperature changes appeared to be correlated with the 11-year cycle of solar magnetic activity. During the period from 1979 through 1985, both the irradiance and temperature decreased. From 1985 to 1987, they increased. The irradiance changed approximately 0.1 percent, while the temperature varied as much as 0.6 C. During the 1979-1987 period, the temperatures were forecasted to rise linearly because of the anthropogenic build-up of carbon dioxide and the hypothesized 'global warming', 'greenhouse effect', scenarios. Contrary to these scenarios, the temperatures were found to vary in a periodic manner in phase with the solar irradiance changes. The observed correlations between irradiance and temperature variabilily suggest that the mean, global temperature of the Earth may decline between 1990 and 1997 as solar magnetic activity decreases.

Description: A 3D cloud model is used to simulate the storm structure, and the results are linked to microwave and infrared radiative transfer models for simulation of aircraft observations. Spaceborne radar data are also simulated along the aircraft flight track. The cloud and radiative model simulations are studied and compared with aircraft observations. The initial results indicate that the 3D cloud model is capable of simulating the major features of observed storm systems when given a representative atmospheric sounding to initialize the convective systems. The simulations of infrared and microwave radiances provide reasonably good comparisons with the observations.

Description: The outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data from ERBE wide-field-of-view (WFOV) and scanning sensor are compared with Nimbus-7 WFOV results. Monthly averaged OLR data from the ERBE WFOV instruments aboard the NOAA-9 and NOAA-10 polar orbiting satellites during the 3-year overlap period with Nimbus-7 are deconvolved using spherical harmonics. Results of a comparison of the data sets are presented on regional, zonal, and global scales in the spatial domain and on a monthly scale in the time domain.

Description: An effort is made to determine, on the basis of satellite imagery associated with a thunderstorm event: (1) the extent to which time-compositing would increase areal coverage and potential temperature and moisture profile measurements, as a function of time, and (2) the number of times that a given clear area could be sampled during a measurement sequence. This information would be of great value in more effectively using current data from the operational GOES satellites, and will assist in the planning of future operational and research geosynchronous missions.

Description: The NOAA has been preprocessing the TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) IR and microwave channels to correct for cloud amount, spot size, and viewing angle. An examination is now being conducted of the 6-7 micron water vapor band; a preliminary evaluation is here presented of the regional and global features of this large data base on daily, monthly, annual, and decadal time scales. The TOVS archives allow large-scale climatological features to be established.

Description: The region of the IR spectrum that is ideally suited for detecting optically thin cirrus clouds is in the window between 10 and 13 microns. Here relatively weak absorption due to the water vapor lines and continuum is present and hence the extinction characteristic of the cloud particles is readily discernible. In order to demonstrate these properties, two IR spectra are presented, one with clear skies and one with an optically thin cirrus. As a result of the cloud particle extinction, an appreciable increase in the brightness temperature from 10 to 13 microns is observed. This decrease is found to be nearly linear in the case of the tropical thin cirrus, which is also geometrically thin. On the basis of radiative transfer simulations, it is inferred that the cloud particle size that can produce this spectral character has an effective diameter of about 12 microns, which is comparable to the wavelength of the radiation.

Description: Two contrasting representations of land surface variability used in general circulation models (GCMs) are compared through an analysis of their corresponding surface energy balance equations. In one representation (the 'mixture' approach), different vegetation types are assumed to be homogeneously mixed over a grid square, so that the GCM atmosphere sees near-surface conditions pertaining to the mixture only. In the second representation (the 'mosaic' approach), different vegetation types are viewed as separate 'tiles' of a grid-square 'mosaic', and each tile interacts with the atmosphere independently. The mosaic approach is computationally simpler and in many ways more flexible than the mixture approach. Analytical solutions to the linearized energy balance equations and numerical solutions to the nonlinear equations both demonstrate that the mixture strategy, when applied to two coexisting vegetation types that differ only in canopy transpiration resistance, promotes both total turbulent flux and latent heat flux relative to the mosaic strategy. The effective differences between the strategies, however, are small over a wide range of conditions. In particular, the strategies are effectively equivalent when the transpiration resistances of the different vegetation types are of the same order of magnitude.

Description: Results are presented of an investigation of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) and its impact on the extended-range forecast in the NMC operational model during Phase II (14 December 1986-31 March 1987) of the Dynamical Extended Range Forecast. Based on principal component analysis of the velocity potential and streamfunction, evidence was found of tropical-extratropical interaction associated with the ISO. The NMC model possess significant forecast skills for the principal streamfunction and velocity potential modes up to the first ten days. Results of the error growth analysis suggest that the principal modes of velocity potential have large errors comparable to the model random errors. By comparison, the initial errors in the streamfunction are much smaller. The error growth for both tropical and extratropical modes are found to be significantly suppressed during periods of strong ISO relative to periods of weak ISO. The increase in extratropical forecast skill is likely due to (1) the model's ability to better capture ISO signals in the tropics and (2) the increased coupling between the tropics and extratropics during periods of strong ISO.

Description: The flow of an incompressible, stratified fluid over an obstacle will produce an oscillation in which buoyancy is the restoring force, called a gravity wave. For disturbances of this scale, the atmosphere may be treated as incompressible; and even the linear approximation will explain many of the phenomena observed in the lee of mountains. However, nonlinearities arise in two ways: (1) through the large (scaled) size of the mountain, and (2) from dynamically singular levels in the fluid field. These produce a complicated array of phenomena that present hazards to aircraft and to lee surface areas. If there is no dynamic barrier, these waves can penetrate vertically into the middle atmosphere (30-100 km attitude), where recent observations show them to be of a length scale that must involve the Coriolis force in any modeling. At these altitudes, the amplitude of the waves is very large, and the waves are studied with a view to their potential impact on the projected National Aerospace Plane. This paper presents the results of analyses and state-of-the-art numerical simulations, validated where possible by observational data.

Description: A simulation of the July 11, 1988 thunderstorm near Denver, which produced a microburst of unusual intensity during the test operation of the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar system is carried out using the Terminal Area Simulation System also known as the NASA-Langley Windshear Model. The results show the evolution and structure of the storm, including hazard indices based on F-factor. Results of simulation show that the storm is of unusual structure, producing multiple low- to moderate-reflectivity microbursts formed downshear of the main precipitation shaft. The most intense of the microbursts contains a velocity differential exceeding 40 m/s, strong downdrafts, and hazardous windshear with F-factors approaching 0.2. A comparison with observations, including Doppler radar measurements and aircraft flight data, indicates that the model can proivide information that is not always apparent from observed data.

Description: Linear instability calculations are presented to support the contention that part of the excitation of the 4-d wave could be due to baroclinic instability at the winter stratopause. The theoretical structure of this instability is investigated with a linear stability analysis of the August average zonal mean state.

Description: The global distributions of upper tropospheric relative humidity derived from the archived SAGE II water vapor data set are presented. For both summer and winter months, vertical profiles of zonal mean relative humidity are derived for each of the six 20-deg latitude bands covering 60 deg N - 60 deg S. Some examples of global maps of upper tropospheric relative humidity are shown to illustrate the relationship between moist areas and convective activity.

Description: A 3D mechanistic, primitive-equation model of the stratosphere and mesosphere is coupled to an offline spectral transport model. The dynamics model is initialized with and forced by observations so that the coupled models may be used to study specific episodes. Results are compared with those obtained by transport online in the dynamics model. Although some differences are apparent, the results suggest that coupling of the models to a comprehensive photochemical package will provide a useful tool for studying the evolution of constituents in the middle atmosphere during specific episodes.

Description: Lagrangian area diagnostics and trajectory techniques are used to investigate the radiative and dynamical characteristics of a spontaneous sudden warming which occurred during a 2-yr Langley Research Center model simulation. The ability of the Langley Research Center GCM to simulate the major features of the stratospheric circulation during such highly disturbed periods is illustrated by comparison of the simulated warming to the observed circulation during the LIMS observation period. The apparent sink of vortex area associated with Rossby wave-breaking accounts for the majority of the reduction of the size of the vortex and also acts to offset the radiatively driven increase in the area occupied by the 'surf zone'. Trajectory analysis of selected material lines substantiates the conclusions from the area diagnostics.

Description: Updated information is presented on the U.S./Japan Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), which is a relatively low-budget earth-probe satellite with a secondary objective of measuring upwelling radiation from the clouds and the surfaces below the satellite. Particular attention is given to the TRMM rain measurements and the characteristics of the three TRMM rain measuring instruments: the microwave radiometer, the radar, and the visible/IR radiometer. Also discussed are the TRMM contributions to EOS and GEWEX.

Description: The paper describes determinations of atmospheric profiles from space-based radio measurements and the retrieval methodology used, with special attention given to the measurement procedure and the characteristics of the soundings. It is speculated that reliable profiles of the terrestrial atmosphere can be obtained by the occultation technique from the surface to a height of about 60 km. With the full complement of 21 the Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites and one GPS receiver in sun synchronous polar orbit, a maximum of 42 soundings could be obtained for each complete orbit or about 670 per day, providing almost uniform global coverage.

Description: Experimental data are presented on dual-wavelength scattering characteristics of subtropical rain observed during the convection and precipitation/electrification (CaPE) experiment. Linear depolarization ratios (LDRs) are calculated at both X-band and Ka-band channels. In stratiform rain, the cross-polarized return signal is generally below the noise level except within the melting layer where the maximum LDR at both frequencies is typically between -12 and -10 dB. In convective rain the range profiles of the LDR in X-band and those in Ka-band do not coincide. The X-band LDR values in convective rain typically remain smaller than -25 dB at high altitudes and take somewhat larger values of -25 to -15 dB at low altitudes. The Ka-band LDR values, in contrast, typically increase with radar range, sometimes reaching a level of -3 dB just before the cross-polarized signal falls below the noise level. Such high values of LDR in Ka-band are most likely attributable to multiple scattering effects.

Description: Measurements were made of a suite of photochemically active trace species (including light hydrocarbons, ozone, peroxyacetyl nitrate, HNO3, NO3(-), NO(x), and NO(y)) in marine air collected during a 10-day period in April and May 1985 at Point Arena (California), a coastal inflow site. It was found that the mixing ratios of the alkanes, ozone, peroxyacetyl nitrate, and HNO3 correlated with variations in the origins of calculated air parcel trajectories and with variations in the ratios of the light alkanes. The highest levels of alkanes and the photochemical products were found in parcels that had been rapidly transported across the North Pacific Ocean from near the 600-mbar level above the east Asian coast. It is suggested that production over the continents, transport to the marine areas, and parallel removal processes account for much of the observed correlation.

Description: Surface radiation budget data are presented for the midseasonal months of July and October of 1983 and January and April of 1984. These data allow the examination of geographical and seasonal variations of the entire surface radiation budget from pole to pole. The latest flux estimation techniques have been used along with data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project and the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment. Regional, zonal, and hemispheric distributions of the downward and net components of both shortwave and longwave fluxes and of the net total surface fluxes are determined. Seasonal flux variation per region, expressed as flux range, is illustrated for these components also. The estimated fluxes appear to be accurate to about 16 W/sq m on a global average, based on sensitivity analyses and comparisons with ground data. An analysis of flux errors showed that most of the error was attributable to errors in input data.

Description: The brightness temperature (T sub b) measured at 37 GHz shows fairly strong emission from rain, and only slight effects caused by scattering by ice above the rain clouds. At frequencies below 37 GHz, where the FOV is larger and the volume extinction coefficient is weaker, it is found that the observations do not yield appreciable additional information about rain. At 85 GHz (FOV = 15 km), where the volume extinction is considerably larger, direct information about rain below the clouds is usually masked. Based on the above idea, 37 GHz observations with a 30 km FOV from SMMR and SSM/I are selected to develop an empirical method for the estimation of rain rate. In this method, the statistics of the observed T sub b's at 37 GHz in a rain storm are related to the rain rate statistics in that storm. The underestimation of rain rate, arising from the inability of the radiometer to respond sensitively to rain rate above a given threshold is rectified in this technique with the aid of two parameters that depend on the total water vapor content in the atmosphere. The retrieved rain rates compare favorably with radar observations and monthly mean global maps of rain derived from this technique over the oceans.

Description: A general discussion of the influence of the greenhouse effect on the earth's climate is given. The sources and sinks of the various greenhouse gases are discussed.

Description: The effective radar reflectivity Ze measured by a radar is the convolution of the actual distribution of reflectivity with the beam radiation pattern. Because of the nonlinearity between Z and rain rate R, Ze gives a biased estimator of R whenever the reflectivity field is nonuniform. In the presence of sharp horizontal reflectivity gradients, the measured pattern of Ze extends beyond the actual precipitation boundaries to produce false precipitation echoes. When integrated across the radar image of the storm, the false echo areas contribute to the sum to produce overestimates of the areal rainfall. As the range or beamwidth increases, the ratio of measured to actual rainfall increases. Beyond some range, the normal decrease of reflectivity with height dominates and the measured rainfall underestimates the actual amount.

Description: The interaction between the tropics and middle latitudes is studied using a tracer emitted at 50 hPa along a great circle route between Los Angeles, USA and Sydney, Australia. Though designed to examine the impact of stratospheric aircraft, the study more generally addresses the transport between tropics and middle latitudes for a three month period from January through March 1989. The results show that air is transported from the tropics to middle latitudes by planetary scale and tropospheric cyclonic scale waves. Except for intrusions by these wave events, the tropics are substantially isolated throughout the lower stratosphere. These waves draw material out of the tropics which ends up in the middle latitude westerly jets, with little material entering the winter polar latitudes prior to the springtime transition. The summer Southern Hemisphere is characterized by tracer being drawn out in streamers that extend from north and west to south and east. The material in the tropics is zonally asymmetric. The material that reaches the troposphere comes down in the synoptic scale eddies and is concentrated in the middle latitude jet stream. These characteristics are similar to those observed during the dispersion of volcanic clouds.

Description: Measurements of aircraft longitude, latitude, and velocity, and measurements of atmospheric pressure, temperature, and horizontal wind from the meteorological measurement system (MMS) on board the NASA ER-2 aircraft were compared with independent measurements of these quantities from radiosondes and radar tracking of both the ER-2 and radiosonde balloons. In general, the comparisons were good and within the expected measurement accuracy and natural variability of the meteorological parameters. Radar tracking of the ER-2 resolved the velocity and position drift of the inertial navigation system (INS). The rms errors in the horizontal velocity components of the ER-2, due to INS errors, were found to be 0.5 m/s. The magnitude of the drift in longitude and latitude depends on the sign and magnitude of the corresponding component velocity drift and can be a few hundredths of a degree. The radar altitudes of the ER-2 and radiosondes were used as the basis for comparing measurements of atmospheric pressure, temperature, and horizontal wind from these two platforms. The uncertainty in the MMS horizontal wind measurement is estimated to be +/- 2.5 m/s. The accuracy of the MMS pressure and temperature measurements were inferred to be +/- 0.3 hPa and +/- 0.3 K.

Description: Recent observations of rare cloud-to-stratospheric lightning discharges suggest the events are inherently 'slow-rising', with the emitted energy reaching peak values in about 10 milliseconds. Applying a dipole radiation model, it is demonstrated that the emitted radio wave energy from such slow-rising events is strongest below about 50 Hz, and possesses a significant rolloff at higher frequencies. In the analysis, various current distributions are considered in order to determine the effect on the radio spectrum. Near 10 kHz, the emission from cloud-to-stratospheric lightning is significantly reduced as compared to the typical cloud-to-ground return stroke, with amplitudes as much as 50 dB lower. This result may explain the lack of detection of VLF signals from recently observed long-lasting discharge events.

Description: This study modifies the 1D PBL model of Zhang and Anthes (1982) to account more explicitly for the effects of a vegetation layer. New equations for the latent, sensible, and ground heat fluxes, reformulated in terms of vegetation parameters are substituted into the model. The model produces good agreement with observations over a wide range of conditions: for wet, high-vegetation conditions, and for dry, low-vegetation conditions in both the winter and the summer.

Description: The current theoretical and observational understanding of the roles of the hydrological cycle in the climate system and its intimate connection to the energy cycle is evaluated. An attempt is made to show why the hydrological cycle has emerged as the central element in studies of climate change and to anticipate the main advances expected in modeling and observations in the coming decade.

Description: Global relationships among the earth's radiation budget, cloudiness, solar constant, volcanic aerosols, and surface temperature are analyzed using data obtained by the Nimbus-7 spacecraft. It was found that these parameters were interrelated on interannual time scales, demonstrating that the interannual variability in the earth's climate (i.e., radiation budget) is detectable and observable by current spaceborne instruments. The degree of global interannual variation is on the order of tenths of percent.

Description: The effect of sensor spatial resolution on satellite-derived estimates of cloud fractional coverage is quantified on the basis of Landsat satellite radiance data. Cloud fraction is found to depend on cloud algorithm as much as it depends on sensor spatial resolution. Even for 28.5-m spatial resolution data, large cloud fraction differences exist between algorithms. Satellite cloud retrieval algorithms depend strongly on sensor spatial resolution and/or on the optical depth of the cloud field. When present, spatial resolution effects are small (less than 0.01) for pixel diameter less than 1/4 km and are large for pixel diameter larger than 1 km. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project bispectral threshold gives an increase in cloud fraction of 0.11 as spatial resolution degrades from 20 m to 8 km. The spatial coherence algorithm underestimates boundary layer cloud fraction by 0.18. The use of functional box counting and an assumption of fractal scale invariance overestimates the dependence of cloud fraction for spatial scales below 1 km.

Description: Recent developments in the field of data assimilation have pointed to variational analysis (essentially least-squares fitting of a model solution to observed data) using the adjoint method as a new direction that holds the potential of major improvements over the current optimal interpolation method. This paper describes the initial effort in the development of a 4D variational analysis system. Although the development is based on the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres General Circulation Model (GCM), the methods and procedures described in this paper can be applied to any model. The adjoint code that computes the gradients needed in the analysis can be written directly from the GCM code. An easy error-detection technique was devised in the construction of the adjoint model. Also, a method of determining the weights and the preconditioning scales for the cases where model-generated data, which are error free, are used as observation is proposed. Two test experiments show that the dynamics part of the system has been successfully completed.

Description: The Nimbus-7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) was used to map the distribution of total ozone around western North Pacific tropical cyclones from 1979 to 1982. The strong correlation between total ozone distribution and tropopause height found in the subtropical and midlatitudes made it possible for TOMS to monitor the propagation of upper-tropospheric waves and the mutual adjustment between these waves and tropical cyclones during their interaction. Changes in these total ozone patterns reflect the 3D upper-tropospheric transport processes that are involved in tropical cyclone intensity and intensity and motion changes. The total ozone distributions indicate that: (1) the mean upper-tropospheric circulations associated with western North Pacific and Atlantic tropical cyclones are similar; (2) more intense tropical cyclones have higher tropopauses around their centers; (3) more intense tropical cyclones have higher tropopauses on the anticyclonic-shear side of their outflow jets, which indicate that the more intense tropical cyclones have stronger outflow channels than less intense systems; (4) tropical cyclones that intensify (do not intensify) are within 10 deg (15 deg) latitude of weak (strong) upper-tropospheric troughs that are moderately rich (very rich) in total ozone; and (5) tropical cyclones turn to the left (right) when they move within approximately 15 deg latitude downstream of an ozone-poor (ozone-rich) upper-tropospheric ridge (trough).

Description: The paper develops a comparative picture of the 1987 Southern Hemisphere and 1989 Northern Hemisphere lower stratospheric, polar vortex circulation and constituent distributions as observed by the Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment, August 17-September 22, 1987, and Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition, January 3-February 19, 1989 aircraft campaigns. Overall, both polar vortices define a region of highly isolated air, where the exchange of trace gases occurs principally at the vortex edge through erosional wave activity. Aircraft measurement showed that between 50 and 100 mbar, horizontally stratified long-lived tracers such as N2O are displaced downward 2-3 km on the cyclonic (poleward) side of the jet with the meridional tracer gradient sharpest at the jet core. Eddy mixing rates, computed using parcel ensemble statistics, are an order of magnitude or more lower on the cyclonic side of the jet compared to those on the anticyclonic side. Poleward zonal mean meridional flow on the anticyclonic side of the jet terminates in a descent zone at the jet core.

Description: Results are presented of a study of the radiative effects of polar stratospheric clouds during the Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment (AAOE) and the Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition (AASE) in which daily 3D Type I nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) and Type II water ice polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) were generated in the polar regions during AAOE and the AASE aircraft missions. Mission data on particular composition and size, together with NMC-analyzed temperatures, are used. For AAOE, both Type I and Type II clouds were formed for the time period August 23 to September 17, after which only Type I clouds formed. During AASE, while Type I clouds were formed for each day between January 3 and February 10, Type II clouds formed on only two days, January 24 and 31. Mie theory and a radiative transfer model are used to compute the radiative heating rates during the mission periods, for clear and cloudy lower sky cases. Only the Type II water ice clouds have a significant radiative effect, with the Type I NATO PSCs generating a net heating or cooling of 0.1 K/d or less.

Description: The relationships between satellite-based and radar-measured area-time integrals (ATI) for convective storms are determined, and both are shown to depend on the climatological conditional mean rain rate and the ratio of the measured cloud area to the actual rain area of the storms. The GOES precipitation index of Arkin (1986) for convective storms, an area-time integral for satellite cloud areas, is shown to be related to the ATI for radar-observed rain areas. The quality of GPI-based rainfall estimates depends on how well the cloud area is related to the rain area and the size of the sampling domain. It is also noted that the use of a GOES cloud ATI in conjunction with the radar area-time integral will improve the accuracy of rainfall estimates and allow such estimates to be made in much smaller space-time domains than the 1-month and 5-deg boxes anticipated for the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission.

Description: The method of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) was applied to a 10-yr data set of outgoing longwave radiation. Spherical harmonic functions are used as a basis set for producing equal area map results. The first EOF accounts for 66 percent of the variance. After that, each EOF accounts for only a small variance, forming a slowly converging series. The first two EOFs describe mainly the annual cycle. The third EOF is primarily the semiannual cycle although many other EOFs also contain significant semiannual parts. These results reaffirm those based on a shorter data set. In addition, a much stronger spring/fall mode was found in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean for the second EOF than was found earlier. The fourth EOF describes much of the 1976 to 1977 and 1982 to 1983 ENSO phenomena. There is typically a gap in the spectrum between a semiannual peak and the annual cycle for all but the first EOF. A semiannual OLR dipole straddles the Asian-Australian monsoon track.

Description: When sufficiently large zonally asymmetric tropical heating is introduced in a two-level model of global atmospheric flow, its general circulation becomes strongly superrotating. The nature of the superrotating solutions is studied by examining momentum and heat budgets for a range of values of thermal forcing. Changes in the transport of zonal momentum by transient eddies appear to play the key role in the transition to superrotation. The dramatic bifurcation of the solutions of this model may help explain the maintenance and variability of the zonal mean flow in the tropics.

Description: On 17 March 1989, moderate to heavy snow developed in a 100- to 200-km-wide band extending from South Dakota to northern Michigan. The 4- to 8-inch snowfall within this band was not associated with major cyclogenesis, and developed 500 to 600 km north of a stationary surface front. A diagnostic analysis based on an application of the General Meteorological Package (GEMPAK 5.0) to a numerical simulation from the operational nested-grid model (NGM) is utilized to show that the development of this snow band is related to the interaction of two upper-tropospheric jet streaks and their associated transverse circulation patterns. The eastward propagation of a jet streak from the West Coast toward the middle United States and to the south of a slower-moving jet along the U.S.-Canadian border led to a merger of the ascent maxima associated with the direct and indirect circulations of the northern and southern jets, respectively. The snow band developed as the ascending branches of the jet-streak circulation patterns merged, with the eastward propagation of the heaviest snow linked to the motion of the coupled circulation pattern. The study also demonstrates the usefulness of the operational NGM for providing the higher-resolution datasets required to relate the evolution of jet-streak circulation patterns to the development of mesoscale precipitation bands.

Description: The response of the middle atmosphere to an increase in stratospheric aerosols, normally associated with increased volcanic activity, is investigated. The aerosols are found to induce a direct stratospheric response, with warming in the tropical lower stratosphere, and cooling at higher latitudes. On the shorter time scales, this radiative effect increases tropospheric static stability at low- to midlatitudes, which reduces the intensity of the Hadley cell and Ferrel cell. There is an associated increase in tropospheric standing wave energy and a decrease in midlatitude west winds, which result in additional wave energy propagation into the stratosphere at lower midlatitudes in both hemispheres. On the longer time scale, a strong hemispheric asymmetry arises. In the Northern Hemisphere eddy energy decreases, as does the middle-atmosphere residual circulation, and widespread stratospheric cooling results. In the Southern Hemisphere, the large increase in sea ice increases the tropospheric latitudinal temperature gradient, leading to increased eddy energy, an increased middle-atmosphere residual circulation, and some high-latitude stratospheric warming.

Description: The mechanisms of northern summertime teleconnections are investigated using a barotropic model. In a series of numerical experiments the atmospheric response over the eastern Pacific-North America to an idealized local divergence source corresponding to the northward displacement of the ITCZ in the eastern Pacific is studied. It is found that the response is much stronger in June than in May and is strongest when the forcing is located north of about 10 deg N. This can be explained in terms of the refractive properties of the climatological summertime subtropical jet stream over North America. In another series of experiments the global response as a function of the longitudinal location of the tropical forcing is examined. A wave train emanating from the subtropics of the western Pacific near the Philippines, arching across the Aleutians and the Gulf of Alaska, and terminating with a high anomaly over the continental United States appears over a wide longitudinal range of local forcing, suggesting the existence of a normal mode for the northern summertime climatological flow. The normal-mode concept is supported by further experiments using extratropical forcings as well as free-mode integrations.

Description: A realistic two-level GCM is used to examine the relationship between predictability and persistence. Predictability is measured by the average divergence of ensembles of solutions starting from perturbed initial conditions, and persistence is defined in terms of the autocorrelation function based on a single long-term model integration. The average skill of the dynamical forecasts is compared with the skill of simple persistence-based statistical forecasts. For initial errors comparable in magnitude to present-day analysis errors, the statistical forecast loses all skill after about one week, reflecting the lifetime of the lowest frequency fluctuations in the model. Large ensemble mean dynamical forecasts would be expected to remain skillful for about 3 wk. The disparity between the skill of the statistical and dynamical forecasts is greater for the higher frequency modes, which have little memory beyond 1 d, yet remain predictable for about 2 wk. The results are analyzed in terms of two characteristic time scales.

Description: Global fields of precipitable water W from the special sensor microwave imager were compared with those from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. They agree over most ocean areas; both data sets capture the two annual cycles examined and the interannual anomalies during an ENSO episode. They show significant differences in the dry air masses over the eastern tropical-subtropical oceans, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. In these regions, comparisons with radiosonde data indicate that overestimation by the ECMWF model accounts for a large part of the differences. As a check on the W differences, surface-level specific humidity Q derived from W, using a statistical relation, was compared with Q from the ECMWF model. The differences in Q were found to be consistent with the differences in W, indirectly validating the Q-W relation. In both W and Q, SSMI was able to discern clearly the equatorial extension of the tongues of dry air in the eastern tropical ocean, while both ECMWF and climatological fields have reduced spatial gradients and weaker intensity.

Description: The GISS global-climate model is used to make a preliminary estimate of Mount Pinatubo's climate impact. Assuming the aerosol optical depth is nearly twice as great as for the 1982 El Chichon eruption, the model forecasts a dramatic but temporary break in recent global warming trends. The simulations indicate that Pinatubo occurred too late in the year to prevent 1991 from becoming one of the warmest years in instrumental records, but intense aerosol cooling is predicted to begin late in 1991 and to maximize late in 1992. The predicted cooling is sufficiently large that by mid 1992 it should even overwhelm global warming associated with an El Nino that appears to be developing, but the El Nino could shift the time of minimum global temperature into 1993. The model predicts a return to record warm levels in the later 1990s. The effect is estimated of the predicted global cooling on such practical matters as the severity of the coming Soviet winter and the dates of cherry blossoming next spring.

Description: Northern-Hemisphere stratospheric temperatures at 30 and 50 mb beginning in June 1991 are compared with 20-year (1965-1984) and 26-year (1964-1989) monthly means. Significant temperature increases are shown in July, August, September, and October for latitudes from approximately 30 deg N to the equator. In September and October deviations are observed for large areas between the equator and 30 deg N, with temperature increases as high as + 3.5 C occurring at some locations. The monthly averaged zonal mean 30-mb temperatures at 20 deg N in September and October were approximately 2.5 C higher that the 26-year mean, with some daily zonal mean increases of almost 3 C. Higher values occurred equatorward of 20 deg N. These warmings are due to absorption of radiation by the aerosols produced from the June eruptions of the volcano Pinatubo (15.1 deg N, 120.4 deg E) in the Philippines. Stratospheric warmings are expected to be occurring simultaneously at southern latitudes, especially from the equator to about 20 deg S, based on satellite and lidar measurements of the locations of the new aerosol layers. These localized temperature increases should decrease in magnitude and become more global as the cloud disperses globally and spreads in altitude.

Description: Solar and sky radiation measurements were analyzed to obtain aerosol properties such as the optical thickness and the size distribution. The measurements were conducted as part of the First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiment during the second intensive field campaign (IFC) from June 25 to July 14, 1987, and the fifth IFC from July 25 to August 12, 1989, on the Konza Prairie near Manhattan, Kansas. Correlations with climatological and meteorological parameters show that during the period of observations in 1987, two types of air masses dominated the area: an air mass with low optical thickness and low temperature air associated with a northerly breeze, commonly referred to as the continental air, and an air mass with a higher optical thickness and higher temperature air associated with a southerly wind which we call 'Gulf air'. The size distributions show a predominance of the larger size particles in 'Gulf air'. Because of the presence of two contrasting air masses, correlations with parameters such as relative humidity, specific humidity, pressure, temperature, and North Star sky radiance reveal some interesting aspects. In 1989, clear distinctions between continental and Gulf air cannot be made; the reason for this will be discussed.

Description: Several improvements have been made recently to the parameterization for surface longwave radiation described by Gupta (1989). Model constants have been modified in order to use meteorological data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project instead of from the TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder data, primarily to take advantage of the vastly superior cloud information available from the former. Additional modifications were made to improve the estimation of cloud effect in the presence of low-level clouds. The latter modifications reduced the systematic error of the overcast-sky fluxes from 10.0 to 1.7 W/sq m and the random error from +/- 18.9 to +/- 6.3 W/sq m when compared to the fluxes computed with a detailed radiative transfer model.

Description: A variation of the modified Langley plot algorithm is reported here and applied to the retrieval of atmospheric water column abundance from a filtered sunphotometer. In this new methodology an absorption data base (LOWTRAN 7) is used to compute a water abundance versus transmittance curve of growth, rather than the square-root dependence previously assumed. Validation of the technique is provided from an uncertainty analysis, and plans to further validate using Fourier transform spectrometers are detailed. The new sunphotometer technique is used to report local column water vapor during the First ISLSCP Field Experiment (FIFE), and comparisons are made with abundances retrieved via FIFE radiosonde observations. The sunphotometer data can best be utilized, however, to in turn validate data from airborne or in-orbit measurements of water vapor. With these flight sensors, horizontal and topographic variability within the scene can be viewed. An example of the airborne data set is given using an image from the airborne visible infrared imaging spectrometer, as acquired on August 31, 1990.

Description: As a user of devices and procedures for lightning protection, the author is asking the lightning research community for cookbook recipes to help him solve his problems. He is lamenting that realistic devices are scarce and that his mission does not allow him the time nor the wherewithal to bridge the gap between research and applications. A few case histories are presented. In return for their help he is offering researchers a key to lightning technology--the use of the Eastern Test Range and its extensive resources as a proving ground for their experiment in the lightning capital of the United States. A current example is given--a joint lightning characterization project to take place there. Typical resources are listed.

Description: Using a physical approach, global ten-day mean long-wave cloud radiative forcing has been derived from satellite data for a period from January 1979 to May 1981. This forcing shows small (2 to 3 W/sq m) variations for diurnal, seasonal, and interannual time scales, even though the detailed structure of cloud fields may have considerable temporal and spatial variability. The amplitude of variations of the hemispheric mean is much larger than the global mean; the largest variation is over land areas (20 W/sq m) of the Southern Hemisphere, and the smallest variation is over the ocean (6 W/wq m) of the Northern Hemisphere.

Description: Models that try to forecast the detailed geographical distribution of oceanic and atmospheric variables affected by the ENSO cycle are briefly discussed. Combinations of singular-spectrum analysis and the maximum entropy method that hold promise for predicting the ENSO cycle 2-3 yrs in advance are addressed.

Description: Monthly 2.5-deg gridpoint anomalies in the Tiros-N satellite series Microwave Sounding Unit channel 2 brightness temperatures during 1979-1988 are evaluated with multiple satellites and radiosonde data for their climate temperature monitoring capability. The MSU anomalies are computed about a 10-yr mean annual cycle at each gridpoint, with the MSUs intercalibrated to a common arbitrary level. The monthly gridpoint anomaly agreement between concurrently operating satellites reveals single-satellite precision generally better than 0.07 C in the tropics and better than 0.15 C at higher latitudes. The removal from channel 2 of the temperature influence above the 30-kPa level is addressed, providing a sharper and thus potentially more useful weighting function for monitoring lower tropospheric temperatures.

Description: It is illustrated how climate forcing by stratospheric aerosols depends on aerosol properties. The climate forcing is a function of aerosols size distribution, but the size dependence can be described well by a single parameter: the area-weighted mean radius, r(eff). If r(eff) is greater than about 2 microns, the global average greenhouse effect of the aerosols exceeds the albedo effect, causing a surface heating. The aerosol climate forcing is less sensitive to other characteristics of the size distribution, the aerosol composition, and the altitude of the aerosols. Thus stratospheric aerosol forcing can be defined accurately from measurements of aerosol extinction over a broad wavelength range.

Description: A question arising from the recent interest in spaceborne weather radar is what methods can be used to estimate precipitation parameters from space. In this paper, dual-wavelength airborne radar data obtained from flights conducted during 1988 and 1989 are used to compare rain rates derived from backscattering and attenuation methods. To help interpret the results the surface reference methods are studied by means of scatterplots of the surface cross sections at the two frequencies under rain and no-rain conditions. Approximate criteria are given on combining attenuation and backscattering methods to increase the effective dynamic range of the radar. The dual-wavelength capability of the radar is also used to examine the vertical structure of the precipitation. Another factor affecting the accuracy of the methods is the drop-size distribution. In the final section of the paper a procedure to estimate the profiled drop-size distribution is applied to the measured radar data.

Description: The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) retrieved cloud fields and the high-resolution radiation sounder 2 (HIRS2) retrieved cloud fields yield similar outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) due to the cancelation effect of cloud-top altitudes and cloud amount on OLR. For the large regional discrepancies of the order of 30 W/sq m found over northern Africa are largely due to surface temperature differences, and extensive discrepancies over the ocean are due to humidity differences. Harmonic analysis is applied to OLR, clear-sky OLR, and cloud-radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere using the ISCCP products. The diurnal variations of these parameters from 60 deg S to 60 deg N are larger over land than over the ocean. The clear-sky OLR peaks around 1500 LST, usually over land areas, and is associated with the surface/air temperature maximum. The OLR over cloudy regions shows a similar diurnal phase as the cloud top pressure. The cloud radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere has maximum value near 2100 LST mountain areas and near 0000 and 0300 LST over equatorial regions. The ISCCP-computed longwave cloud radiative forcing has smaller diurnal variations over the ocean than the HIRS2-computed longwave cloud radiative forcing. The global mean bias of OLR is around 0.74 W/sq m, and locally, the bias can be as large as 5 to 10 W/sq m. This appears to indicate that the twice-a-day measurements of the HIRS2/MSU (around 0315 and 1515 LST, which are the equatorial cross times at nadir track) can be used to derive monthly mean OLR without significant bias.

Description: A study is presented of the latitudinal redistribution of angular momentum within the atmosphere from 1976 to 1991. Slow global-scale coherent poleward propagation of atmospheric angular momentum fluctuations are observed on interannual timescales. These originate in equatorial regions, where they lead the main atmospheric anomalies of the ENSO cycle by nearly two yrs; they penetrate to latitude higher than 60 deg in both hemispheres, where they lag behind the ENSO cycle by about four yrs. The bimodality of the ENSO phenomenon, with a low-frequency component centered at a period close to 4.2 yrs and a high-frequency component centered near 2.4 yrs, can also be distinguished. Each of the two components has a distinct latitudinal propagation pattern.

Description: The objective of this paper is to provide a convenient and fast way for computing the radiative properties of planar Rayleigh scattering media. Analytical expressions are developed for the three molecular atmospheric functions which are required in remote sensing: the atmospheric reflectance, the transmission function, and the spherical albedo. The expressions are adjusted by using accurate computations performed with successive orders of a scattering code. The accuracy of the code is first checked by using previously published tabulations. The required accuracy of 0.001 in the reflectance unit is achieved by numerical adjustments. The contribution of polarization is considered implicitly. The expressions are shown to be valid for a fairly large range of observational conditions.

Description: A technique is developed that uses a multispectral, multiresolution method to improve the overall retrieval of mid- to high-level cloud properties by combining HIRS sounding channel data with higher spatial resolution AVHRR radiometric data collocated with the HIRS footprint. Cirrus cloud radiative and physical properties are determined using satellite data, surface-based measurements provided by rawinsondes and lidar, and aircraft-based lidar data collected during the First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Program Regional Experiment in Wisconsin during the months of October and November 1986. HIRS cloud-height retrievals are compared to ground-based lidar and aircraft lidar when possible. Retrieved cloud heights are found to have close agreement with lidar for thin cloud, but are higher than lidar for optically thick cloud. The results of the reflectance-emittance relationships derived are compared to theoretical scattering model results for both water-droplet spheres and randomly oriented hexagonal ice crystals. It is found that the assumption of 10-micron water droplets is inadequate to describe the reflectance-emittance relationship for the ice clouds seen here. Use of this assumption would lead to lower cloud heights using the ISCCP approach. The theoretical results show that use of hexagonal ice crystal phase functions could lead to much improved results for cloud retrieval algorithms using a bispectral approach.

Description: Observations on January 7 and 8, 1991, of an arc-shaped cloud band outlining an area in the eastern Mediterranean within a warm ocean eddy were made using the NOAA-11 AVHRR. Clouds formed at the edge of the warm eddy's internal boundary layer as the wind traveled at right angles from the colder Aegean water toward the warm eddy. No clouds formed on the southern side of the warm eddy where sea surface temperatures were warmer and where the winds may not have flowed at right angles toward the warm eddy. An upper limit of 24 h was determined for the length of time the arc-shaped cloud stayed over the eddy.

Description: The authors describe the status of MODIS-N and its companion instrument MODIS-T (tilt), a tiltable cross-track scanning spectrometer with 32 uniformly spaced channels between 0.410 and 0.875 micron. They review the various methods being developed for the remote sensing of atmospheric properties using MODIS, placing primary emphasis on the principal atmospheric applications of determining the optical, microphysical, and physical properties of clouds and aerosol particles from spectral reflection and thermal emission measurements. In addition to cloud and aerosol properties, MODIS-N will be used for determining the total precipitable water vapor and atmospheric stability. The physical principles behind the determination of each of these atmospheric products are described, together with an example of their application to aircraft and/or satellite measurements.

Description: Using a stratospheric-tropospheric data assimilation system, referred to as STRATAN, a minor sudden stratospheric warming that occurred in January 1989 is investigated. The event had a maximum influence on the stratospheric circulation near 2 hPa. The zonal mean circulation reversed briefly in the polar region as the temperature increased 34 K in 3 days. The cause of the warming is shown to be the rapid development and subsequent movement of a warm anomaly, which initially developed in the midlatitudes. The development of the warm anomaly is caused by adiabatic descent, and the dissipation by radiative cooling. A brief comparison with the NMC analysis and temperature sounding data is also presented.

Description: We consider the response of a zonally symmetric atmosphere to a thermal forcing that is localized in the subtropics. Specifically, the equilibrium temperature distribution has a local subtropical peak and is flat elsewhere, including at the equator. On the basis of inviscid steady-state theory, it is argued that the response to such forcing is one of two distinct types. Below a threshold forcing, the atmosphere adopts a steady state of thermal equilibrium with no meridional flow. With supercritical forcing, this state breaks down and a strong meridional circulation is predicted. The threshold forcing value is that at which the absolute vorticity of the zonal flow (in gradient balance with the equilibrium temperatures) vanishes at the upper boundary. These inviscid predictions are tested in a zonally symmetric numerical model; while the model viscosity shifts the threshold and otherwise modifies the response, the threshold is clearly evident in the model behavior.

Description: Singular spectrum analysis (SSA), a variant of principal component analysis, is applied to a time series of the Southern Oscillation index (SOI). The analysis filters out variability unrelated to the Southern Oscillation and separates the high-frequency, 2- to 3-year variability, including the quasi-biennial oscillation, from the lower-frequency 4- to 6-year El Nino cycle. The maximum entropy method (MEM) is applied to forecasting the prefiltered SOI. Prediction based on MEM-associated autoregresive models has useful skill for 30-36 months. A 1993-1994 La Nina event is predicted based on data through February 1992.

Description: The NASA/GSFC Crustal Dynamics Project microwave water vapor radiometer (J03) is evaluated in terms of measurements of the integrated precipitable water vapor content of a particular column of the troposphere. The measurements were taken during the Atmospheric Moisture Intercomparison Study (ATMIS) held at Wallops Island (Virginia) during April 1989. Water vapor sensing instruments used during ATMIS, included radiometers, radiosondes, and the NASA/GSFC Raman lidar. Comparisons between water vapor measurements by the radiometer and the lidar yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.998 and rms differences for three nights of -0.2 +/- 0.2 mm (April 11-12), -0.8 +/- 0.5 mm (April 16-17), and -0.4 +/- 0.3 mm (April 17-18). The integrated precipitable water vapor measurements for these three nights were approximately 5, 10 and 21 mm, respectively. This study shows that the radiometer provides accurate continuous measurements of the water vapor integrated through the depth of the atmosphere.

Description: The collective character of carbon exchanges between the atmosphere and other pools is partially revealed by comparing the record of CO2 concentration beginning in 1958 with estimates of the releases from fossil fuels during this period. In analyzing the secular increase in CO2 concentration induced by fossil fuel use, the atmosphere is generally treated as a single well-mixed reservoir; however, to study finer structure in the CO2 records, the influence of atmospheric circulation must be more carefully considered. The rate of carbon uptake by the oceans, the primary sink for fossil fuel CO2, is assessed more reliably than influences on the atmosphere due to interactions with other pools. Models of the global carbon cycle are being substantially refined while data that reflect the response of the cycle to fossil fuel use and other perturbations are being extended.

Description: A statistical correlation technique is applied to the retrieval of vertical moisture profiles under clear-sky conditions from down-looking radiometric measurements of atmospheric radiation at microwave wavelengths. For a given set of channels, the method selects the optimum radiometric channels for estimating water vapor at specific pressure levels between the surface and 300 mb. The water vapor mixing ratio at these pressure levels is then calculated from a linear combination of the selected channel brightness temperatures. To test its validity the algorithm was applied, in a numerical experiment, to fifty independent tropical radiosondes. The rms absolute deviation of the estimated moisture profiles from the actual profiles was comparable to that obtained using an iterative retrieval method reported earlier. The statistical method, however, requires several orders of magnitude less computer time than the iterative method; it is suitable for high speed processing of large amounts of data.

Description: The Andre et al. (1976, 1978) third-order closure model, in which the time rate of change terms, the relaxation and rapid effects for pressure-related terms, and the clipping approximation are used along with the quasi-normal closure, is invoked in the study of turbulence in a cloudy layer that is radiatively cooled from above. A spurious oscillation whose greatest amplitude lies near the inversion is shown by analysis to arise from the mean gradient and buoyancy terms of the triple-moment equations. An attempt is made to damp the oscillation through the introduction of diffusion terms into the triple-moment equations. The results obtained are noted to be sensitive to the ad hoc eddy coefficient applied in the third-moment equations.

Description: Space-time mapping of VHF sources from four severe storms on June 19, 1980 reveals that lightning processes for cloud-to-ground (CG) and large intracloud (IC) flashes are confined to an altitude below about 10 km and closely associated with the central regions of high reflectivity. Another class of IC flashes produces a splattering of sources within the storms' main electrically active volumes and also within the large divergent wind canopy aloft. There is no apparent temporal association between the small high altitude IC flashes that occur almost continuously and the large IC and CG flashes that occur sporadically in the lower portions of storms.

Description: A variational principle for time dependent diffusion problems is presented and is demonstrated by applying it to simple seasonal climate models. Two cases are treated. The first, a North-Coakley-type model with constant properties, is used as a tutorial example for the application of the technique. For the second case, heat capacity and thermal conductivity are considered to be latitude dependent in order to treat the effects of land/ocean distribution on the seasonal temperature distribution over the earth. The variational equations are derived and approximate analytical solutions are developed which delineate the influences of the physical asymmetries of the hemispheres in producing an asymmetric annual cycle.

Description: Lorenz (1969) has considered the possibility that an atmospheric circulation pattern might recur, taking into account the definition of a pair of analogous flows or 'analogs'. The present investigation is concerned with a search of time series of Northern Hemisphere wintertime geopotential heights for possible analogs. Attention is given to data and analysis procedure, analog quality, and error growth rates. The obtained results imply that the found analogs are not a useful tool for forecasting the evolution of the midlatitude flow on time scales of several days. It is pointed out, however, that the negative results should not be extended to other applications of analog forecasting.

Description: Simple climate models which invoke diffusive heat transport and ice cap albedo feedback have equilibrium solutions with no stable ice cap smaller than a radius of about 20 deg on a great circle. Attention is presently given to a solution of this phenomenon which is physically appealing. The ice-free solution has a thermal minimum, and if the minimum temperature is just above the critical value for ice formation, then the artificial addition of a patch of ice leads to a widespread depression of the temperature below the critical freezing temperature. A second stable solution will then exist whose spatial extent is determined by the range of the influence function of a point sink of heat, due to the albedo shift in the patch.

Description: A comment is presented on a recent paper by Pagnotti and Bosart (1984) which contrasted different forcing mechanisms for weak and strong cyclones along the east coast of the U.S., and Bosart replies. The comment argues that the paper did not give a clear definition of 'weak' upper-level forcing and did not provide sufficient evidence to support its claim that the return branch of transverse circulations may be coupled to the middle as opposed to the lower troposphere.

Description: A fully nonlinear numerical model of the point jet barotropic instability is used to test and confirm the hypothesis that the magnitude of the wave vorticity does not exceed the magnitude of the initial shear. This result arises directly from the local conservation of vorticity following a parcel and the fact that unstable waves are principally confined to the region where the zonal mean vorticity can be smoothed by the wave so as to eliminate the instability. Comparisons are made between fully nonlinear and quasi-linear models of the point jet instability and their tracer transport properties. Differences become particularly evident after wave saturation. The most important effect neglected by the wave-mean flow model appears to be the advection of wave vorticity by the most unstable mode. However, as equilibration of the instability proceeds, the globally averaged properties of both models are found to be similar.

Description: We calculate the seasonal changes that are largely associated with the half-yearly wave, autocorrelation functions, and the mean planetary waves in the monthly mean sea level pressure from two data sources. One covers the period from 1951 to 1958 (from the South African Weather Bureau) and the other the period from 1972 to 1980 (from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology). Thirty years of data from stations over the southern hemisphere are used to assess the reliability of the differences between the two periods that the grid-point data show. These differences are especially large over the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. The station data confirm the changes between the two periods and thus the observed differences in the mean waves, which are especially large for wave number 3.

Description: The cloud observation archive from the NASA Global Atmospheric Sampling Program (GASP) is analyzed in order to derive the probability of cloud encounter at altitudes normally flown by commercial airliners, for application to a determination of the feasability of Laminar Flow Control (LFC) on long-range routes. The probability of cloud encounter is found to vary significantly with season. Several meteorological circulation features are apparent in the latitudinal distribution of cloud cover. The cloud encounter data are shown to be consistent with the classical midlatitude cyclone model with more clouds encountered in highs than in lows. Aircraft measurements of route-averaged time-in-clouds fit a gamma probability distribution model which is applied to estimate the probability of extended cloud encounter, and the associated loss of LFC effectiveness along seven high-density routes. The probability is demonstrated to be low.

Description: Attention is given to physical principles that affect the determination of atmospheric temperature profiles from observations of outgoing IR and microwave radiation. Simultaneous analysis of IR and microwave observations enhances observations in each spectral region. While IR soundings have higher sensitivity to lower tropospheric temperatures, ground temperatures, and sea surface temperatures, microwave observations are not only more suited to stratospheric sounding but are sensitive to snow and ice cover. They significantly aid correction of IR observations for cloud effects. Because effective cloud parameters and snow and ice cover can be inferred from the observations, 'temperature sounders' also yield data for a number of important climatic parameters.

Description: The influence of soil moisture on the persistence of an ongoing drought was investigated. The case study of drought of the summer of 1980 was selected. The difference in the simulation of two identical twin runs: one with the climatological normal soil moisture and the other with anomalous soil moisture for drought conditions, were examined on the mean monthly circulation. It is found that a reduction in soil moisture did produce a corresponding reduction in precipitation. The pattern of the rainfall anomaly however, was not identical to the soil moisture (evapotranspiration) anomaly but had a good resemblance with observations.

Description: During the Northern summer, sporadic outbreaks of wind borne Saharan dust are carried out over the Atlantic by the tropical easterlies. Optical depths due to the dust can reach 3 near the African coast, and the dust cloud can be detected as far west as the Caribbean Sea (Carlson, 1979). In order to obtain insight into the possible effects of Saharan dust on the weather and climate of North Africa and the tropical Atlantic Ocean, simulation experiments have been performed with the Climate Model of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences. The most recent version of the model is described by Randall (1982). The model produces realistic simulations of many aspects of the observed climate and its seasonal variation.

Description: The sensitivity of climate which may have a local maximum as the ice cap passes through a midlatitude region where the atmosphere's transport efficiency varies strongly with latitude is examined. This behavior, found in a two level primitive equations climate model forced with annual mean insolation, was reproduced in an energy balance model (EBM) by making the diffusion coefficient a function of latitude. The two level seasonally varying EBM was applied and the global mean surface temperature vs. solar constant for this model are shown and two regions of enhanced sensitivity appear. The snowcover distributions around the year for three cases are shown.

Description: The role of transient eddies in maintaining the observed local seasonal mean atmospheric circulation was investigated by examining the time-averaged momentum balances and omega equation, using seasonal statistics calculated from daily operational analyses by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts. While both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres and several seasons were studied, emphasis was placed upon the Northern Hemisphere during December 1981-February 1982. The results showed that transient eddies played a secondary role in the seasonal mean zonal momentum budget and in the forcing of seasonal mean vertical and a geostrophic motion.

Description: Contemporaneous correlations between geopotential heights on a given pressure surface at widely separated points on Earth, commonly referred to as teleconnections, are calculated from monthly mean sea level pressure and 500 mb geopotential height analyses for the Southern Hemisphere for five-month winter and summer seasons. During summer (November-March), anomalies over the three continents occur out of phase with anomalies over the subtropical oceans and in a wavenumber 3 pattern over the Southern Ocean near 55 deg S. The subtropical part of the pattern appears largely associated with the interannual variation of the seasonal cycle and annual mean. In winter (May-September) 500 mb geopotential heights over Africa exhibit positive correlations with heights over South America and the central South Pacific near New Zealand and negative correlations with height over the Southern Ocean. A striking wavenumber three pattern is apparent which shows the correlation of 500 mb geopotential height anomalies with 500 mb anomalies at 50 deg S, 95 deg E during winter. The strong positive correlations between 50 deg S, 95 E and 58 deg S, 150 deg W and 38 deg S, 15 deg W contrast with negative correlations over Antarctica and in low latitudes. Time variations in a similar pattern in sea level pressure are in phase with variations in the 500 mb pattern, suggesting an equivalent barotropic structure.

Description: The incorporation of observed zonal topography in a barotropic nonlinear channel model is discussed. The model is then extended to explain the regional features of blocking by employing a two scale method to allow small slow variations of the momentum (zonal) driving.

Description: Stratus and stratocumulus cloud sheets which are among the most common cloud types over the world are discussed. They are characteristic of the undisturbed subtropical marine boundary layer over the eastern oceans, where cool water and large scale sinking motion suppress penetrative cumulus convection. They also occur over the Arctic Ocean, particularly in summer, and behind cold outbreaks over the western oceans in winter. Observational studies were conducted and further observations are planned.

Description: A numerical simulation study, using the current GLAS climate GCM, was carried out to examine the influence of low bulk aerodynamic drag parameter in the deserts. The results illustrate the importance of yet another feedback effect of a desert on itself, that is produced by the reduction in surface roughness height of land once the vegetation dies and desert forms. Apart from affecting the moisture convergence, low bulk transport coefficients of a desert lead to enhanced longwave cooling and sinking which together reduce precipitation by Charney's (1975) mechanism. Thus, this effect, together with albedo and soil moisture influence, perpetuate a desert condition through its geophysical feedback effect. The study further suggests that man made deserts is a viable hypothesis.

Description: Seasonal statistics calculated from daily operational analyses by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts for December 1980 - February 1981 (season 1) and December 1981 - February 1982 (season 2) were used to contrast the two seasonal mean circulation patterns present in the Northern Hemisphere and to investigate possible causes for the differences. The vertically averaged seasonal mean zonal wind and E-vector, a measure of the anisotropy of the transient eddies over the Pacific is shown for season 1 and season 2. The pattern in season 2, but not season 1, resembles that found in a modeling study of barotropic instability. One possible explanation for the differences between season 1 and 2 is a weak change in tropical heating associated with the southern oscillation, the effect of which in midlatitude was amplified by the occurrence of barotropic instability over the Pacific in season 2, but not season 1.

Description: An ensemble approach is applied to Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) calculations with the bulk Richardson number identified as the key parameter. An ensemble averaging calculation was carried out to rederive the bulk friction and heat transport coefficients for the mean condition. Two simulations are carried out and compared. Significant differences in PBL fluxes low level cloudiness, land surface roughness heights, and surface evaporation are noted between the modified and unmodified simulations. Modifications to the model were: (1) the relationship between actual and potential Effective Temperature (ET) to accord with Sud and Fennessy (1982); (2) maximum permissible instantaneous ET at any time is 1.5 mm per hr; (3) moisture distribution in low level cumulus convection to be consistent with no precipitation; (4) appearance of supersaturation clouds to be consistent with supersaturation condition at that level; (5) invoking a simple function for stomatal diffusion effect in the ET calculation.

Description: The method proposed by Pandey et al. (1983) for estimating the temperature differential and thickness of clouds from microwave data obtained with the scanning multichannel microwave radiometers of the Seasat and Nimbus-7 satellites is examined critically. It is pointed out that both the thicknesses and the temperature differentials derived from them may not be meaningful unless accurate measurements of cloud-top height (from IR radiometry) and reliable data on liquid-water content are available. It is suggested that the good fits obtained in generating regression coefficients for the proposed method may be artifacts of the fixed or limited-range liquid-water densities of the cloud models used. With respect to cloud-top height, the need to quantify and account for differences in the fields of view and spatial resolutions of the IR and microwave radiometers, as undertaken for the case of precipitating clouds by Yeh and Liou (1983), is stressed.