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  • Articles  (24)
  • uncertainty  (9)
  • JEL classification: J13  (8)
  • decision theory  (7)
  • Chemical Engineering
  • Fisheries
  • Sociology  (24)
  • 1
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    Environment, development and sustainability 2 (2000), S. 277-304 
    ISSN: 1573-2975
    Keywords: Systems of Knowledge ; Local Knowledge ; Fisheries ; Resource Management
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Sociology
    Notes: Abstract During the last 20 years, the existence of rich systems of local knowledge, and their vital support to resource use and management regimes, has been demonstrated in a wide range of biological, physical and geographical domains, such as agriculture, animal husbandry, forestry and agroforestry, medicine, and marine science and fisheries. Local knowledge includes empirical and practical components that are fundamental to sustainable resource management. Among coastal-marine fishers, for example, regular catches and, often, long-term resource sustainment are ensured through the application of knowledge that encompasses empirical information on fish behaviour, marine physical environments, fish habitats and the interactions among ecosystem components, as well as complex fish taxonomies. Local knowledge is therefore an important cultural resource that guides and sustains the operation of customary management systems. The sets of rules that compose a fisheries management system derive directly from local concepts and knowledge of the resources on which the fishery is based. Beyond the practical and the empirical, it is essential to recognise the fundamental socio-cultural importance of local knowledge to any society. It is through knowledge transmission and socialisation that worldviews are constructed, social institutions perpetuated, customary practices established, and social roles defined. In this manner, local knowledge and its transmission, shape society and culture, and culture and society shape knowledge. Local knowledge is of great potential practical value. It can provide an important information base for local resources management, especially in the tropics, where conventionally-used data are usually scarce to non-existent, as well as providing a shortcut to pinpoint essential scientific research needs. To be useful for resources management, however, it must be systematically collected and scientifically verified, before being blended with complementary information derived from Western-based sciences. But local knowledge should not be looked on with only a short-term utilitarian eye. Arguments widely accepted for conserving biodiversity, for example, are also applicable to the intellectual cultural diversity encompassed in local knowledge systems: they should be conserved because their utility may only be revealed at some later date or owing to their intrinsic value as part of the world's global heritage. At least in cultures with a Western liberal tradition, more than lip-service is now being paid to alternative systems of knowledge. The denigration of alternative knowledge systems as backward, inefficient, inferior, and founded on myth and ignorance has recently begun to change. Many such practices are a logical, sophisticated and often still-evolving adaptation to risk, based on generations of empirical experience and arranged according to principles, philosophies and institutions that are radically different from those prevailing in Western scientific circles, and hence all-but incomprehensible to them. But steadfastly held prejudices remain powerful. In this presentation I describe the 'design principles' of local knowledge systems, with particular reference to coastal-marine fishing communities, and their social and practical usefulness. I then examine the economic, ideological and institutional factors that combine to perpetuate the marginalisation and neglect of local knowledge, and discuss some of the requirements for applying local knowledge in modern management.
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  • 2
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    Journal of population economics 12 (1999), S. 547-565 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: J13 ; Key words: Fertility ; siblings models
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. Recent studies have begun to examine rigorously the links between early childbearing and subsequent socioeconomic status. Prominent in this literature has been a set of analyses that have used sibling fixed effects models to control for omitted variables bias. These studies report that the siblings difference procedure leads to smaller estimates of the effects of teen fertility than does standard regression analysis. While it is well known that the siblings fixed effects procedure makes strong assumptions regarding the type of omitted variables and is not necessarily robust to alternative assumptions, the assumptions of the procedure have not been explicitly examined. This paper uses 1979–1992 data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to compare estimates of the income and education consequences of teenage and young adult fertility from standard regression and siblings fixed effects models with estimates from more general, alternative siblings models.
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  • 3
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: J13 ; O15 ; C52 ; Key words: Fertility ; vector error-correction model ; variance decomposition
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This study is the first attempt at placing the analysis of fertility in a temporal dynamic framework in the case of a developing Asian economy such as Thailand by binding the relationship between fertility and its determinants within a cointegrated system. The analysis is based on the application of the following recently developed dynamic time series techniques: cointegration, vector error-correction modelling, variance decompositions and the impulse response functions. The results tend to indicate that in the complex dynamic interactions, the importance of the conventional `structural' hypothesis as a significant factor in bringing fertility down in the longer term cannot be denied. However, in the short to longer term, our findings, although not fully supportive of any particular hypothesis, appear to be broadly consistent more with the hypothesis emphasising the critical role played by the `ideational' or diffusion forces along with the demographic variables in ensuring `initial' fertility decline than with the conventional `structural' hypothesis emphasising a significant socio-economic structural change as a pre-condition for `initial' fertility decline.
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  • 4
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    Journal of population economics 11 (1998), S. 1-20 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: D63 ; D71 ; D81 ; Key words: Population ethics ; uncertainty ; critical levels
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper analyzes variable-population social-evaluation principles in a framework where outcomes are uncertain. We provide characterizations of expected-utility versions of critical-level generalized utilitarian rules. These principles evaluate lotteries over possible states of the world on the basis of the sum of the expected values of differences between transformed utility levels and a transformed critical level, conditional on the agents‘ being alive in the states under consideration. Equivalently, the critical-level utilitarian value functions applied to weighted individual expected utilities can be employed. Weights are determined by the anonymity axiom.
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  • 5
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    Journal of population economics 11 (1998), S. 29-51 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: J13 ; C41 ; Key words: Life-cycle ; fertility ; multiple spell hazards ; non-parametric ; heterogeneity
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This paper estimates a reduced form neoclassical model of Canadian fertility dynamics using an econometric technique that integrates several features not usually found in the demographic and economic literature. We find considerable support for the neoclassical model. We also find that correlated unobservables and parity stopping effects play an important role in Canadian fertility dynamics as well as other socio-demographic features of Canadian women. However, we fail to totally characterize the important drops in the fertility rate that took place for this era.
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  • 6
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    Journal of population economics 11 (1998), S. 435-452 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: Key words: Fertility ; panel data ; negative binomial ; pro-natal policies ; JEL classification: J13 ; C25 ; C33
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This paper provides empirical evidence on fertility determinants in Arab countries. Adopting a macro and micro framework and exploiting panel and count data models the paper estimates the impact of cultural and economic factors on the demand for children. The results obtained strongly support the hypothesis that cross-country heterogeneity buttresses differentiated fertility and that female education mitigates high fertility. Child mortality and parent‘s preferences for sons positively affect fertility. By and large, demand for children is price and income inelastic.
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  • 7
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    Journal of population economics 11 (1998), S. 517-534 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: Key words: Fertility ; mortality ; growth ; JEL classification: J13 ; O41
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. Economic and demographic outcomes are determined jointly in a choice-theoretic model of fertility, mortality and capital accumulation. There is an endogenous population of reproductive agents who belong to dynastic families of overlapping generations connected through altruism. In addition to choosing savings and births, parents may reduce (infant) deaths by incurring expenditures on health-care which is also provided by the government. A generalised production technology accounts for long-run endogenous growth with short-run transitional dynamics. The analysis yields testable time series and cross-section implications which accord with the empirical evidence on the relationship between demography and development.
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  • 8
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    Journal of population economics 11 (1998), S. 495-516 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: Key words: Vietnam ; son preference ; JEL classification: J13
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. Son preference is widespread although not universal. Where it occurs it may lead to higher fertility rates. Ideally son preference should be measured in the context of a hazards or parity progression model of fertility, or a logistic model of contraceptive use. Such models require large amounts of survey data, particularly to measure the covariates. Can son preference be discerned reliably using tests which rely on more limited information? The answer is yes, based on applying eight simple tests to data from the Vietnam Living Standards Survey of 1992–93 and comparing the outcomes with the benchmark results from fuller models. Some, but not all, of the simpler tests accurately measure son preference, including estimating a simple hazards or progression parity model, the unisex sibship test, and the sibling differentials test.
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  • 9
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    Journal of population economics 10 (1997), S. 251-271 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: J13 ; Key words: Number of children ever born ; Poisson model ; ordered-logit model
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This paper is an economics-based quantitative analysis of the determinants of individual fertility in Vietnam, measured as the number of children ever born. In addition to the conventional linear model, two limited dependent variable models, Poisson and ordered-logit, are estimated using data from the 1988 Vietnam Demographic and Health Survery. We find, among other things, that husbands‘ characteristics are almost as important as those of wives in determining fertility, perhaps a reflection of the still dominant role of husbands in Vietnamese families. Both paternal and maternal education have important impacts on fertility. Of special interest is the evidence that supports the attitudinal effect of education over the opportunity-cost effect.
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  • 10
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    Journal of population economics 10 (1997), S. 335-356 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: J13 ; H23 ; H55 ; Key words: Endogenous fertility ; pay-as-you-go financed pension systems
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. For pay-as-you-go financed pension systems, claims may be calculated according to individual contributions (income) or the number of children of a family. We analyse the optimal structure of these parameters in a model with endogenous fertility. It is shown that for both structural determinants there exists no interior solution of the problem of intragenerational utility maximisation. Thus, pure systems are always welfare maximizing. Furthermore, children-related pension claims induce a fiscal externality that tends to be positive. The determination of the optimal contribution rate shows that the widely accepted Aaron-condition is in general a misleading indicator for the comparison of fully funded and pay-as-you-go financed pension systems.
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  • 11
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    Theory and decision 42 (1997), S. 53-80 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: Undecidability ; Prisoner's Dilemma ; cellular automata ; game theory ; decision theory ; computability
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract In the spatialized Prisoner's Dilemma, players compete against their immediate neighbors and adopt a neighbor's strategy should it prove locally superior. Fields of strategies evolve in the manner of cellular automata (Nowak and May, 1993; Mar and St. Denis, 1993a,b; Grim 1995, 1996). Often a question arises as to what the eventual outcome of an initial spatial configuration of strategies will be: Will a single strategy prove triumphant in the sense of progressively conquering more and more territory without opposition, or will an equilibrium of some small number of strategies emerge? Here it is shown, for finite configurations of Prisoner's Dilemma strategies embedded in a given infinite background, that such questions are formally undecidable: there is no algorithm or effective procedure which, given a specification of a finite configuration, will in all cases tell us whether that configuration will or will not result in progressive conquest by a single strategy when embedded in the given field. The proof introduces undecidability into decision theory in three steps: by (1) outlining a class of abstract machines with familiar undecidability results, by (2) modelling these machines within a particular family of cellular automata, carrying over undecidability results for these, and finally by (3) showing that spatial configurations of Prisoner's Dilemma strategies will take the form of such cellular automata.
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  • 12
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    Theory and decision 41 (1996), S. 257-280 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: Preference ; decision theory ; utility ; rationality
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Standard decision theoretic models disregard the phenomenon of interpersonal dependency of preferences. In this paper it is argued that interpersonal dependency of preferences is a serious challenge for standard utility theory. First we sketch the more philosophical aspects of the problem and then, using a simple, formal model for the two-person case, we show that interpersonal dependency of preferences generally results in indeterminacy of preferences (resp. of subjective utility).
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  • 13
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    Theory and decision 39 (1995), S. 51-77 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: Ambiguity ; competence ; knowledge ; decision making ; uncertainty
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Competence has recently been proposed as an explanation for the degree of ambiguity aversion. Using general knowledge questions we presented subjects with simple lotteries in which they could bet on an event and against the same event. We show that the sum of certainty equivalents for both bets depends on the judged knowledge of the class of events. We also elicited the decision weights for events and complementary events. We found a similar effect of knowledge on the sum of decision weights.
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  • 14
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    Theory and decision 35 (1993), S. 55-73 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: Paradox ; pseudo-paradox ; decision theory ; game theory ; observation ; probability ; utility ; expected utility
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract In quantum domains, the measurement (or observation) of one of a pair of complementary variables introduces an unavoidable uncertainty in the value of that variable's complement. Such uncertainties are negligible in Newtonian worlds, where observations can be made without appreciably disturbing the observed system. Hence, one would not expect that an observation of a non-quantum probabilistic outcome could affect a probability distribution over subsequently possible states, in a way that would conflict with classical probability calculations. This paper examines three problems in which observations appear to affect the probabilities and expected utilities of subsequent outcomes, in ways which may appear paradoxical. Deeper analysis of these problems reveals that the anomalies arise, not from paradox, but rather from faulty inferences drawn from the observations themselves. Thus the notion of ‘quantum’ decision theory is disparaged.
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  • 15
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    Theory and decision 33 (1992), S. 41-69 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: Probability ; aggregation ; t-norm ; uncertainty ; ordered weighted average
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract We concern ourselves with the problem of determining the overall degree or measure of realization of an object based upon its occurrence in a collection of individual phenomena. We show that while probability is the classic measure of this type, it is but one of a whole family of possible such measures. We use the OWA operator to provide this family of measures. We investigate the situation in which our observations are both specific elements and subsets of some base set.
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  • 16
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    Theory and decision 32 (1992), S. 77-100 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: uncertainty ; experimental economics ; reduction principle
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Segal (1987) suggested that the Ellsberg paradox might be explained in terms of individuals mentally representing the decision problem as a two-stage lottery which they evaluated according to a non-expected utility model. This paper describes an experiment involving an explicitly two-stage analogue to an Ellsberg-type problem. This design substantially reduces the frequency of classic Ellsberg behaviour, but reveals other systematic violations of conventional theory. The paper discusses the particular patterns of choice and raises the more general problem of modelling individual decisions when the reduction principle does not hold.
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  • 17
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    Theory and decision 30 (1991), S. 27-49 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: Utility ; probability ; law ; decision theory ; rational decision ; penalty ; actions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract We discuss several possible legal principles from the standpoint of Bayesian decision theory. In particular, we show that a compelling legal principle implies compatibility with decisions based on maximizing the expected utility.
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  • 18
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    Theory and decision 31 (1991), S. 159-173 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: ambiguity ; uncertainty ; Ellsberg Paradox ; information
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper reports on the responses of 646 individuals to environmental risk information involving different forms of risk ambiguity. Recipients of more than one set of risk information do not simply average the risk levels provided. Rather, a variety of aspects of the nature of the risks that are communicated influence their probabilistic beliefs. Individuals' perceptions of the risk levels to which they are exposed are likely to be greater: (i) for more ambiguous risks, (ii) for risks for which the unfavorable risk evidence is presented last even when there is no temporal order, (iii) for risks for which the most unfavorable risk studies have been performed most recently, and (iv) for risks where there is asymmetry in the risk ambiguity that imposes substantial potential downside risks. Although these effects are modest for the median individual, the potential for extreme responses that reflect only the most adverse or the most favorable piece of information provided is quite prevalent. These findings are of interest more generally in that they indicate how individuals form their risk perceptions in the presence of risk ambiguity.
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  • 19
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    Theory and decision 31 (1991), S. 257-287 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: financial market ; decision theory ; behavioral decision ; financial flows ; rationality ; herd behavior
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The insights of descriptive decision theorists and psychologists, we believe, have much to contribute to our understanding of financial market macrophenomena. We propose an analytic agenda that distinguishes those individual idiosyncrasies that prove consequential at the macro-level from those that are neutralized by market processes such as poaching. We discuss five behavioral traits — barn-door closing, expert/reliance effects, status quo bias, framing, and herding — that we employ in explaining financial flows. Patterns in flows to mutual funds, to new equities, across national boundaries, as well as movements in debt-equity ratios are shown to be consistent with deviations from rationality.
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  • 20
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    Theory and decision 28 (1990), S. 143-172 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: Entropy ; decision analysis ; information economics ; uncertainty
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This essay intends to define the role of entropy, in particular, the role of the maximum entropy criterion with respect to decision analysis and information economics. By considering the average opportunity loss interpretation, the basic hypothesis for Shannon's derivation can be derived from properties of decision problems. Using the representation Bayes Boundary it is possible to show that selecting a single probability from a set by the Maximum Entropy Criterion corresponds to a minimax criterion for decision-making. Since problems of randomly accessing and storing information as well as communicating information can often be stated in terms of coding problems, this result might be used to develop strategies for minimizing retrieval time or communication costs.
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  • 21
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    Theory and decision 27 (1989), S. 93-106 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: cognition ; decision ; graphs ; artificial intelligence ; risk ; uncertainty ; expert systems ; expected utility
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract In the first part, we try to give a representation of the process by which man endeavours to grasp uncertainty. We propose a backward exploration which we will modelize through an influence diagram and then we can draw a few conclusions from that representation for the axiomatics of Decision. In the second part, we deal with the processing of the information formatted in such a way, regarding both its temporal complexity and its elective complexity. The first part as the second one dealing with representation and the consequences for information processing of uncertainty cognition lead to a severe criticism of the expected utility hypothesis. To conclude, we suggest a few remarks on expert systems of decision aid under uncertainty.
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  • 22
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    Theory and decision 26 (1989), S. 1-35 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: research and development ; resource allocation ; project selection ; uncertainty ; data improvement ; control strategy
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper deals with the problem of optimal control of R&D. The fundamental aspects of this problem are viewed as: uncertainty about economic parameters of new technology (or new activity, e.g. a search for new oil fields) explored by a group of parallel projects attempting to make advances in this technology as well as improve economic data; allocation of investments among rival projects under a given total budget; timing of the ultimate selection of new technology (activity) according to the most successful project. The process of data improvement (PDI) is described as a (random) process of reducing the intervals of uncertainty, the rate of data improvement being controlled, in effect, by the investment policy. A stationary dynamic model with infinite horizon of planning and with the criterion of total discounted costs is developed. The model is carefully investigated from the economic point of view, and some new effects are discovered. It is demonstrated that uncertainty may be the source of additional gain; the bigger the initial uncertainty, the bigger the gain may be under optimal control. This effect is based on PDI, the economic background of which is presented as multiplication of the expected gain over time, which is typical for the classical macromodels of economics. Optimal continuous control is constructed at every time moment, and answers to two main questions are given: (1) either to prolong R & D or to make ultimate selection of one project, (2) how to allocate resources among the rival projects in the case of R&D prolongation. The last question is answered on the basis of profitability indices that relate efficiencies of PDI for particular projects to the costs of information.
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  • 23
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    Theory and decision 26 (1989), S. 99-105 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: decision theory ; uncertainty ; betting system ; Dutch book ; belief function
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract By considering situations of partially resolving uncertainty, a one-to-one correspondence between belief functions and coherent betting systems à la de Finetti is shown to exist.
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  • 24
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    Theory and decision 24 (1988), S. 169-200 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: decision theory ; risk ; expected utility ; security level ; risk aversion
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    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The particular attention paid by decision makers to the security level ensured by each decision under risk, which is responsible for the certainty effect, can be taken into account by weakening the independence and continuity axioms of expected utility theory. In the resulting model, preferences depend on: (i) the security level, (ii) the expected utility, offered by each decision. Choices are partially determined by security level comparison and completed by the maximization of a function, which express the existing tradeoffs between expected utility and security level, and is, at a given security level, an affine function of the expected utility. In the model, risk neutrality at a given security level implies risk aversion.
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