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  • 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
  • 2010-2014  (50)
  • 1935-1939
Collection
Keywords
Publisher
Years
Year
  • 1
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Probabilistic modeling of future volcanic eruptions at Mount Etna (2014)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The statistical analysis of volcanic activity at Mt Etna was conducted with the twofold aim of (1) constructing a probability map for vent opening of future flank eruptions and (2) forecasting the expected number of eruptive events at the summit craters. The spatiotemporal map of new vent opening at Etna volcano is based on the analysis of spatial locations and frequency of flank eruptions starting from 1610. Thanks to the completeness and accuracy of historical data over the last four centuries, we examined in detail the spatial and temporal distribution of flank eruptions showing that effusive events follow a nonhomogenous Poisson process with space-time varying intensities. After demonstrating the spatial nonhomogeneity and the temporal nonstationarity of flank eruptions at Etna, we calculated the recurrence rates (events expected per unit area per unit time) and produced different spatiotemporal probability maps of new vent opening in the next 1, 10 and 50 years. These probabilistic maps have an immediate use in evaluating the future timing and areas of Etna prone to volcanic hazards. Finally, the results of the analysis of the persistent summit activity during the last 110 years indicate that the hazard rate for eruptive events is not constant with time, differs for each summit crater of Mt Etna, highlighting a general increase in the eruptive frequency starting from the middle of last century and particularly from 1971, when the SE crater was formed.
    Description: This work was developed in the frame of the TecnoLab, the Laboratory for the Technological Advance in Volcano Geophysics organized by INGV-CT, DIEES-UNICT, and DMI-UNICT.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1925-1935
    Description: 1V. Storia e struttura dei sistemi vulcanici
    Description: 2V. Dinamiche di unrest e scenari pre-eruttivi
    Description: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
    Description: 4V. Vulcani e ambiente
    Description: 3IT. Calcolo scientifico e sistemi informatici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Etna ; probabilistic modeling ; eruption ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.02. Cellular automata, fuzzy logic, genetic alghoritms, neural networks ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.05. Algorithms and implementation ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    Unknown
    Tremor-based real time monitoring and early warning on Etna Volcano (Italy): technical aspects and methods (2013)
    INGV
    Details
    Publication Date: 2013-04-18
    Description: Twenty-five lava fountains occurred on Mt. Etna from January 2011 to April 2012. In summer 2012 volcanic activity resumed in a milder form within the Bocca Nuova crater, before it came to an essential halt in August 2012. All these unrests offer rich material for testing automatic procedures of data processing and alert systems, running 24/7, in the context of volcano surveillance. We focus on the seismic background radiation – volcanic tremor – which plays a key role in the monitoring of Mt. Etna. Since 2006 a multistation alert system has been established in the INGV operative centre of Catania exploiting STA/LTA ratios. Besides, also the spectral characteristics of the signal, which change correspondingly to the type of volcanic activity, can be exploited for warning purposes. Here we apply Self Organizing Maps and Fuzzy Clustering which offer an efficient way to visualize signal characteristics and its development with time. All these techniques allow to identify early stages of eruptive events, and automatically flag a critical status before this becomes evident in conventional monitoring techniques. Changes of tremor characteristics are related to the position of the source of the signal. The location of the sources exploits the distribution of the amplitudes across the seismic network. The locations were extremely useful for warning, throughout both the flank eruption in 2008 as well as the 2011 lava fountains, during which a clear migration of tremor sources towards the eruptive centres could be noticed in advance. The location of the sources completes the picture of an imminent volcanic unrest, and corroborates early warnings flagged by the changes of signal characteristics. Real time data processing requires computational efficiency, robustness of the methods and stability of data acquisition. The amplitude based multi-station approach is not sensitive to the failure of single stations and therefore offers a good stability. The single station approach, exploiting unsupervised classification techniques, limits logistic efforts, as only one or few key stations are necessary. Both strategies have proven to be insensitive to disturbances (undesired transients like earthquakes, noise, short gaps in the continuous data flow). False alarms were not encountered so far. Stable data acquisition and processing come with a properly designed data storage solution. The reliability of data storage and its access is a critical issue. A cluster architecture has been realized for failover protection, including a Storage Area Network system, which allow easy data access following predefined user policies. We present concepts of the software architectures deployed at INGV Osservatorio Etneo in order to implement this tremor-based multi approach system. We envisage the integration of seismic data and those originating from other scientific fields (e. g., volcano imagery, geochemistry, deformation, gravity, magneto-telluric). This will facilitate cross-checking of evidences encountered from the single data streams, in particular allow their immediate verification with respect to ground truth.
    Description: Published
    Description: Nicolosi (Catania, Italy)
    Description: 1.4. TTC - Sorveglianza sismologica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: 5.6. TTC - Attività di Sala Operativa
    Description: open
    Keywords: Etna, Volcanic tremor ; Volcano monitoring, Pattern recognition ; Self Organizing Map, Fuzzy clustering ; Data acquisition ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.06. Surveys, measurements, and monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.01. Data processing ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Oral presentation
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  • 3
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    Repeat-station surveys: implications from chaos and ergodicity of the recent geomagnetic field (2013)
    INGV
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The present geomagnetic field is chaotic and ergodic: chaotic because it can no longer be predicted beyond around 6 years; and ergodic in the sense that time averages correspond to phase-space averages. These properties have already been deduced from complex analyses of observatory time series in a reconstructed phase space [Barraclough and De Santis 1997] and from global predicted and definitive models of differences in the time domain [De Santis et al. 2011]. These results imply that there is a strong necessity to make repeat-station magnetic surveys more frequently than every 5 years. This, in turn, will also improve the geomagnetic field secular variation models. This report provides practical examples and case studies.
    Description: Published
    Description: R0103
    Description: 3.4. Geomagnetismo
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Geomagnetic field ; Repeat Stations ; Ergodicity ; Chaos ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.03. Global and regional models ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.05. Main geomagnetic field ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.08. Instruments and techniques ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis ; 05. General::05.05. Mathematical geophysics::05.05.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
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    Power variation analysis of echo signals from ionospheric reflectors (2013)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: A series of Power Virtual Height measurements (PVH) of radio echoes reflected from the ionosphere were acquired at a given frequency during the period 3–22 January 2008 with the purpose of studying the slow fading variations through time of the ionospheric channel. To obtain PVH data, an ionospheric vertical sounding system was suitably adapted to work at a single fixed frequency. PVH measurements were recorded between two routine ionospheric vertical soundings, providing a data type that enables evaluation of fading fluctuation through time. The time stability of the ionospheric layers is determined by analyzing the level of the received signal power within a chosen threshold. In this paper the fading behaviour and its characteristics are described, considering only temporal periodicity above 0.5 s. In a further analysis a relation is demonstrated between the recorded fading and the time stability of the signal within a fixed interval of values.
    Description: Published
    Description: 722–729
    Description: 1.7. Osservazioni di alta e media atmosfera
    Description: 3.9. Fisica della magnetosfera, ionosfera e meteorologia spaziale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Ionospheric soundings ; Fading fluctuation ; Time-variant ionospheric channel ; 01. Atmosphere::01.02. Ionosphere::01.02.05. Wave propagation ; 01. Atmosphere::01.02. Ionosphere::01.02.06. Instruments and techniques ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
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    Measuring GNSS ionospheric total electron content at Concordia, and application to L-band radiometers (2013)
    INGV
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In the framework of the project BIS - Bipolar Ionospheric Scintillation and Total Electron Content Monitoring, the ISACCO-DMC0 and ISACCO-DMC1 permanent monitoring stations were installed in 2008. The principal scope of the stations is to measure the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) and to monitor the ionospheric scintillations, using high-sampling-frequency global positioning system (GPS) ionospheric scintillation and TEC monitor (GISTM) receivers. The disturbances that the ionosphere can induce on the electromagnetic signals emitted by the Global Navigation Satellite System constellations are due to the presence of electron density anomalies in the ionosphere, which are particularly frequent at high latitudes, where the upper atmosphere is highly sensitive to perturbations coming from outer space. With the development of present and future low-frequency space-borne microwave missions (e.g., Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity [SMOS], Aquarius, and Soil Moisture Active Passive missions), there is an increasing need to estimate the effects of the ionosphere on the propagation of electromagnetic waves that affects satellite measurements. As an example, how the TEC data collected at Concordia station are useful for the calibration of the European Space Agency SMOS data within the framework of an experiment promoted by the European Space Agency (known as DOMEX) will be discussed. The present report shows the ability of the GISTM station to monitor ionospheric scintillation and TEC, which indicates that only the use of continuous GPS measurements can provide accurate information on TEC variability, which is necessary for continuous calibration of satellite data.
    Description: Published
    Description: R0219
    Description: 1.7. Osservazioni di alta e media atmosfera
    Description: 1.10. TTC - Telerilevamento
    Description: 3.9. Fisica della magnetosfera, ionosfera e meteorologia spaziale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Total electron content ; Antarctica ; GNSS ; GPS ; Faraday rotation ; Ionosphere ; 01. Atmosphere::01.02. Ionosphere::01.02.04. Plasma Physics ; 01. Atmosphere::01.02. Ionosphere::01.02.05. Wave propagation ; 01. Atmosphere::01.02. Ionosphere::01.02.06. Instruments and techniques ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis ; 05. General::05.07. Space and Planetary sciences::05.07.02. Space weather
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 6
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    Unknown
    Monitoraggio sismico del territorio nazionale: stato dell'arte e sviluppo delle reti di monitoraggio sismico (2013)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-03
    Description: Il sistema CUMAS (Cabled Underwater Module for Acquisition of Seismological data) è un prodotto tecnologico-scientifico complesso nato con il Progetto V4 [Iannaccone et al., 2008] allo scopo di monitorare l’area vulcanica dei Campi Flegrei (fenomeno del bradisismo). Si tratta di un modulo sottomarino cablato e connesso a una boa galleggiante (meda elastica). Il sistema è in grado di acquisire e trasmettere alla sala di monitoraggio dell’OV, in continuo e in tempo reale, sia i segnali sismologici sia quelli di interesse geofisico ed oceanografico (maree, correnti marine, segnali acustici subacquei, parametri funzionali di varia natura). Il sistema è in grado di ricevere comandi da remoto per variare diversi parametri di acquisizione e di monitorare un cospicuo numero di variabili di funzionamento. Il sistema si avvale del supporto di una boa galleggiante attrezzata. La boa è installata a largo del golfo di Pozzuoli (Napoli) a circa 3 km dalla costa. Il modulo sottomarino, collegato via cavo alla parte fuori acqua della boa, è installato sul fondale marino a una profondità di circa 100 metri.
    Description: Submitted
    Description: 82-85
    Description: 1.1. TTC - Monitoraggio sismico del territorio nazionale
    Description: 1.3. TTC - Sorveglianza geodetica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: 1.4. TTC - Sorveglianza sismologica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: 1.5. TTC - Sorveglianza dell'attività eruttiva dei vulcani
    Description: 1.8. Osservazioni di geofisica ambientale
    Description: 2.5. Laboratorio per lo sviluppo di sistemi di rilevamento sottomarini
    Description: 5.2. TTC - Banche dati di sismologia strumentale
    Description: N/A or not JCR
    Description: open
    Keywords: Monitoraggio sismico; sistemi sottomarini; boa; meda elastica ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.01. Composition and Structure ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.03. Pollution ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.04. Processes and Dynamics ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.05. Radiation ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.06. Thermodynamics ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.07. Volcanic effects ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.08. Instruments and techniques ; 01. Atmosphere::01.02. Ionosphere::01.02.99. General or miscellaneous ; 01. Atmosphere::01.02. Ionosphere::01.02.01. Ion chemistry and composition ; 01. Atmosphere::01.02. Ionosphere::01.02.02. Dynamics ; 01. Atmosphere::01.02. Ionosphere::01.02.03. Forecasts ; 01. Atmosphere::01.02. Ionosphere::01.02.04. Plasma Physics ; 01. Atmosphere::01.02. Ionosphere::01.02.05. Wave propagation ; 01. Atmosphere::01.02. Ionosphere::01.02.06. Instruments and techniques ; 01. Atmosphere::01.02. Ionosphere::01.02.07. Scintillations ; 01. Atmosphere::01.03. Magnetosphere::01.03.99. General or miscellaneous ; 01. Atmosphere::01.03. Magnetosphere::01.03.01. Interplanetary physics ; 01. Atmosphere::01.03. Magnetosphere::01.03.02. Magnetic storms ; 01. Atmosphere::01.03. Magnetosphere::01.03.03. Magnetospheric physics ; 01. Atmosphere::01.03. Magnetosphere::01.03.04. Structure and dynamics ; 01. Atmosphere::01.03. Magnetosphere::01.03.05. Solar variability and solar wind ; 01. Atmosphere::01.03. Magnetosphere::01.03.06. Instruments and techniques ; 02. Cryosphere::02.01. Permafrost::02.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 02. Cryosphere::02.01. Permafrost::02.01.01. Active layer ; 02. Cryosphere::02.01. Permafrost::02.01.02. Cryobiology ; 02. Cryosphere::02.01. Permafrost::02.01.03. Cryosol ; 02. Cryosphere::02.01. Permafrost::02.01.04. Periglacial processes ; 02. Cryosphere::02.01. Permafrost::02.01.05. Seasonally frozen ground ; 02. Cryosphere::02.01. Permafrost::02.01.06. Thermokarst ; 02. Cryosphere::02.01. Permafrost::02.01.07. Tundra ; 02. Cryosphere::02.01. Permafrost::02.01.08. Instruments and techniques ; 02. Cryosphere::02.02. Glaciers::02.02.99. General or miscellaneous ; 02. Cryosphere::02.02. Glaciers::02.02.01. Avalanches ; 02. Cryosphere::02.02. Glaciers::02.02.02. Cryosphere/atmosphere Interaction ; 02. Cryosphere::02.02. Glaciers::02.02.03. Geomorphology ; 02. Cryosphere::02.02. Glaciers::02.02.04. Ice ; 02. Cryosphere::02.02. Glaciers::02.02.05. Ice dynamics ; 02. Cryosphere::02.02. Glaciers::02.02.06. Mass balance ; 02. Cryosphere::02.02. Glaciers::02.02.07. Ocean/ice interaction ; 02. Cryosphere::02.02. Glaciers::02.02.08. Rock glaciers ; 02. Cryosphere::02.02. Glaciers::02.02.09. Snow ; 02. Cryosphere::02.02. Glaciers::02.02.10. Instruments and techniques ; 02. Cryosphere::02.03. Ice cores::02.03.99. General or miscellaneous ; 02. Cryosphere::02.03. Ice cores::02.03.01. Aerosols ; 02. Cryosphere::02.03. Ice cores::02.03.02. Atmospheric Chemistry ; 02. Cryosphere::02.03. Ice cores::02.03.03. Climate Indicators ; 02. Cryosphere::02.03. Ice cores::02.03.04. Ice Core Air Bubbles ; 02. Cryosphere::02.03. Ice cores::02.03.05. Paleoclimate ; 02. Cryosphere::02.03. Ice cores::02.03.06. Precipitation ; 02. Cryosphere::02.03. Ice cores::02.03.07. Teleconnection ; 02. Cryosphere::02.03. Ice cores::02.03.08. Temperature ; 02. Cryosphere::02.03. Ice cores::02.03.09. Instruments and techniques ; 02. Cryosphere::02.04. Sea ice::02.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 02. Cryosphere::02.04. Sea ice::02.04.01. Atmosphere/sea ice/ocean interaction ; 02. Cryosphere::02.04. Sea ice::02.04.02. Leads ; 02. Cryosphere::02.04. Sea ice::02.04.03. Polynas ; 02. Cryosphere::02.04. Sea ice::02.04.04. Instruments and techniques ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.01. Analytical and numerical modeling ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.02. Equatorial and regional oceanography ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.03. Global climate models ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.04. Ocean data assimilation and reanalysis ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.05. Operational oceanography ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.06. Paleoceanography and paleoclimatology ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.07. Physical and biogeochemical interactions ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.08. Instruments and techniques ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.02. Hydrology::03.02.99. General or miscellaneous ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.02. Hydrology::03.02.01. Channel networks ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.02. Hydrology::03.02.02. Hydrological processes: interaction, transport, dynamics ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.02. Hydrology::03.02.03. Groundwater processes ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.02. Hydrology::03.02.04. Measurements and monitoring ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.02. Hydrology::03.02.05. Models and Forecasts ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.02. Hydrology::03.02.06. Water resources ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.02. Hydrology::03.02.07. Instruments and techniques ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.03. Physical::03.03.99. General or miscellaneous ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.03. Physical::03.03.01. Air/water/earth interactions ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.03. Physical::03.03.02. General circulation ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.03. Physical::03.03.03. Interannual-to-decadal ocean variability ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.03. Physical::03.03.04. Upper ocean and mixed layer processes ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.03. Physical::03.03.05. Instruments and techniques ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.04. Chemical and biological::03.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.04. Chemical and biological::03.04.01. Biogeochemical cycles ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.04. Chemical and biological::03.04.02. Carbon cycling ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.04. Chemical and biological::03.04.03. Chemistry of waters ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.04. Chemical and biological::03.04.04. Ecosystems ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.04. Chemical and biological::03.04.05. Gases ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.04. Chemical and biological::03.04.06. Hydrothermal systems ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.04. Chemical and biological::03.04.07. Radioactivity and isotopes ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.04. Chemical and biological::03.04.08. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.01. Composition and state ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.02. Geological and geophysical evidences of deep processes ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.03. Mantle and Core dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.04. Mineral physics and properties of rocks ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.05. Rheology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.01. Geochemical exploration ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.02. Gravity methods ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.03. Heat flow ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.04. Magnetic and electrical methods ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.05. Downhole, radioactivity, remote sensing, and other methods ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.06. Seismic methods ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.07. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.02. Earth rotation ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.03. Gravity and isostasy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.04. Gravity anomalies ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.05. Gravity variations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.06. Measurements and monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.07. Satellite geodesy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.08. Theory and Models ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.09. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.02. Geochronology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.03. Geomorphology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.04. Marine geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.05. Mineralogy and petrology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.06. Rheology, friction, and structure of fault zones ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.07. Rock geochemistry ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.08. Sediments: dating, processes, transport ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.10. Stratigraphy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.11. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.12. Fluid Geochemistry ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.01. Dynamo theory ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.02. Geomagnetic field variations and reversals ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.03. Global and regional models ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.04. Magnetic anomalies ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.05. Main geomagnetic field ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.06. Paleomagnetism ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.07. Rock magnetism ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.08. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.09. Environmental magnetism ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.05. Historical seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.06. Surveys, measurements, and monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.07. Tomography and anisotropy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.09. Waves and wave analysis ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.10. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.01. Continents ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.02. Geodynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.03. Heat generation and transport ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.04. Plate boundaries, motion, and tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.06. Subduction related processes ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.08. Volcanic arcs ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.02. Experimental volcanism ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.03. Magmas ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.04. Thermodynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.05. Volcanic rocks ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.01. Data processing ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.02. Cellular automata, fuzzy logic, genetic alghoritms, neural networks ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.03. Inverse methods ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.05. Algorithms and implementation ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.01. Geochemical data ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.02. Seismological data ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.04. Hydrogeological data ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.05. Collections ; 05. General::05.03. Educational, History of Science, Public Issues::05.03.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.04. Instrumentation and techniques of general interest::05.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.05. Mathematical geophysics::05.05.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.06. Methods::05.06.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.07. Space and Planetary sciences::05.07.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.07. Space and Planetary sciences::05.07.01. Solar-terrestrial interaction ; 05. General::05.07. Space and Planetary sciences::05.07.02. Space weather ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.01. Environmental risk ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.02. Hydrogeological risk ; 05. General::05.09. Miscellaneous::05.09.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
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    Use of combined scaling of real seismic records to obtain code-compliant sets of accelerograms: application for the city of Bucharest (2013)
    National R&D Institute "URBAN-INCERC"
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-03
    Description: A recently proposed method for scaling real accelerograms to obtain sets of code-compliant records is assessed. The method, which uses combined time and amplitude scaling, corroborated with an imposed value of an instrumental, Arias-type intensity, allows the generation of sets of accelerograms for which the values of the mean response spectrum for a given period range are not less than 90% of the elastic response spectrum specified by the code. The method, which is compliant with both for the Romanian seismic code, P100-1/2006, and Eurocode 8, was described in previous papers. Based on dynamic analyses of single-degree-of freedom (SDOF) and of multi-degree-of-freedom (MDOF) systems, a detailed application and assessment of the method is performed, for the case of the long corner period design spectrum in Bucharest. Conclusions are drawn on the advantages of the method, as well as on its potential improvement in the future.
    Description: Published
    Description: 38-44
    Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: N/A or not JCR
    Description: open
    Keywords: seismic code ; accelerogram scaling ; Arias intensity ; seismic record selection ; spectral matching ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
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    Are the source models of the M7.1 1908 Messina Straits earthquake reliable? Insights from a novel inversion and a sensitivity analysis of levelling data (2013)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: For decades, many authors have attempted to define the location, geometry and kinematics of the causative fault for the 1908 December 28, M 7.1 earthquake that struck the Messina Straits between Sicily and Calabria (southern Italy). The coseismic displacement caused a predominant downwarping of the Straits and small land uplift away from it, which were documented by levelling surveys performed 1 yr before and immediately after the earthquake. Most of the source models based on inversion of levelling data suggested that the earthquake was caused by a low angle, east-dipping blind normal fault, whose upper projection intersects the Earth surface on the Sicilian (west) side of the Messina Straits.An alternative interpretation holds that the causative fault is one of the high-angle, west-dipping faults located in southern Calabria, on the eastern side of the Straits, and may in large part coincide with the mapped Armo Fault. Here, we critically review the levelling data with the aim of defining both their usefulness and limits in modelling the seismogenic fault. We demonstrate that the levelling data alone are not capable of discriminating between the two oppositely dipping fault models, and thus their role as a keystone for modellers is untenable. However, new morphotectonic and geodetic data indicate that the Armo Fault has very recent activity and is accumulating strain. The surface observations, together with appraisal ofmacroseismic intensity distribution, available seismic tomography and marine geophysical evidence, lends credit to the hypothesis that the Armo and possibly the S. Eufemia faults are part of a major crustal structure that slipped during the 1908 earthquake.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1025-1041
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Earthquake source ; Messina Straits ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.03. Inverse methods ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
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  • 9
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    A comparison of moment magnitude estimates for the European–Mediterranean and Italian regions (2013)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: With the goal of constructing a homogeneous data set of moment magnitudes (Mw) to be used for seismic hazard assessment, we compared Mw estimates from moment tensor catalogues available online. We found an apparent scaling disagreement between Mw estimates from the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) of the US Geological Survey and from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) project. We suspect that this is the effect of an underestimation ofMw 〉 7.0 (M0 〉 4.0 × 1019 Nm) computed by NEIC owing to the limitations of their computational approach. We also found an apparent scaling disagreement between GCMT and two regional moment tensor catalogues provided by the ‘Eidgen¨ossische Technische Hochschule Z¨urich’ (ETHZ) and by the European–Mediterranean Regional Centroid Moment Tensor (RCMT) project of the Italian ‘Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia’ (INGV). This is probably the effect of the overestimation of Mw 〈 5.5 (M0 〈 2.2 × 1017 Nm), up to year 2002, and of Mw 〈 5.0 (M0 〈 4.0 × 1016 Nm), since year 2003, owing to the physical limitations of the standard CMT inversion method used by GCMT for the earthquakes of relatively low magnitude. If the discrepant data are excluded from the comparisons, the scaling disagreements become insignificant in all cases. We observed instead small absolute offsets (≤0.1 units) for NEIC and ETHZ catalogues with respect to GCMT whereas there is an almost perfect correspondence between RCMT and GCMT. Finally, we found a clear underestimation of about 0.2 units of Mw magnitudes computed at the INGV using the time-domain moment tensor (TDMT) method with respect to those reported by GCMT and RCMT. According to our results, we suggest appropriate offset corrections to be applied to Mw estimates from NEIC, ETHZ and TDMT catalogues before merging their data with GCMT and RCMT catalogues. We suggest as well to discard the probably discrepant data from NEIC and GCMT if other Mw estimates from different sources are available for the same earthquakes. We also estimate approximately the average uncertainty of individual Mw estimates to be about 0.07 magnitude units for the GCMT, NEIC, RCMT and ETHZ catalogues and about 0.13 for the TDMT catalogue.
    Description: European Union research project SHARE (Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe), within the ambit of Task 3.1 ‘European Earthquake Database’
    Description: Published
    Description: 1733-1745
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Earthquake source observations; Statistical seismology ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
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    Comparison of a new expert elicitation model with the Classical Model, equal weights and single experts, using a cross-validation technique (2012)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-17
    Description: The problem of ranking and weighting experts' performances when quantitative judgments are being elicited for decision support is considered. A new scoring model, the Expected Relative Frequency model, is presented, based on the closeness between central values provided by the expert and known values used for calibration. Using responses from experts in five different elicitation datasets, a cross-validation technique is used to compare this new approach with the Cooke Classical Model, the Equal Weights model, and individual experts. The analysis is performed using alternative reward schemes designed to capture proficiency either in quantifying uncertainty, or in estimating true central values. Results show that although there is only a limited probability that one approach is consistently better than another, the Cooke Classical Model is generally the most suitable for assessing uncertainties, whereas the new ERF model should be preferred if the goal is central value estimation accuracy.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1292-1310
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Expert elicitation ; Expert judgement ; Subjective probability ; Cross-validation ; Cooke Classical Model ; Expected Relative Frequency model ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.08. Sediments: dating, processes, transport ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
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  • 11
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    Active Stress Field Analysis: Examples from Central and Southern Apennines (Italy) (2012)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-03-16
    Description: We present two examples of active stress field analysis conducted by integrating geological, geophysical and statistical data. The areas selected are Cittá di Castello-Sansepolcro in central-northern Apennines and the Val d'Agri-Melandro-Pergola in southern Apennines. Although low seismicity is recorded since the instrumental era (1980 to present), the areas have been repeatedly struck by moderate to large earthquakes in the historical time (since 461 B.C.). This suggesting that they may contain earthquake sources but are in a “quiescent” period. Our studies are focused on the characterization of the active stress field in these regions and on the definition of the spatio-temporal distribution of the earthquakes. Then, our data contribute to improve the knowledge of the “seismogenic behavior” of the areas and provide useful information for seismic hazard evaluation. In order to detect the pattern of the active stress field, we analyzed -the earthquakes recorded by national and local seismic networks in the period 2001-2002, with particular attention to the sequences; - ten deep wells (down to 5.5 max depth) for borehole breakouts analysis. At last, we have used two non-parametric statistical procedures (Tanner and Wong, 1984; Faenza et al., 2003) to characterize the spatio-temporal distribution of large historical earthquakes and to account tectonics-physics parameters that can influence the spatio-temporal variability. The results show that the areas are characterized by: i.tectonic structures favorably oriented with the active stress field oriented N44°+-18° in the southern Apennines and N50°+-17° in the central Apennines; ii.stress regime with a mainly extensional kinematics; iii.cluster distribution of seismicity; iv.the probability that an earthquake with the M≥5.5 will occur in the next 10 years is about 40%.
    Description: Unpublished
    Description: San Francisco (California, USA)
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: open
    Keywords: Present-day stress field ; Statistical analysis ; Active Faults ; Borehole breakout ; Earthquakes ; Italy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Poster session
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  • 12
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    Relative ordering in the radial evolution of solar wind turbulence: the S-Theorem approach (2012)
    Copernicus Publications
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Over the past few decades scientists have shown growing interest in space plasma complexity and in understanding the turbulence in magnetospheric and interplanetary media. At the beginning of the 1980s, Yu. L. Klimontovich introduced a criterion, named S-Theorem, to evaluate the degree of order in far-from-equilibrium open systems, which applied to hydrodynamic turbulence showed that turbulence flows were more organized than laminar ones. Using the same theorem we have evaluated the variation of the degree of self-organization in both Alfv´enic and non-Alfv´enic turbulent fluctuations with the radial evolution during a long time interval characterized by a slow solar wind. This analysis seems to show that the radial evolution of turbulent fluctuations is accompanied by a decrease in the degree of order, suggesting that, in the case of slow solar wind, the turbulence decays with radial distance.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2317-2326
    Description: 3.9. Fisica della magnetosfera, ionosfera e meteorologia spaziale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Interplanetary physics (Solar wind plasma) ; Space plasma physics (Turbulence) ; 01. Atmosphere::01.03. Magnetosphere::01.03.05. Solar variability and solar wind ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
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  • 13
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    An empirical comparison among aftershock decay models (2012)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We compare the ability of three aftershock decay models proposed in the literature to reproduce the behavior of 24 real aftershock sequences of Southern California and Italy. In particular, we consider the Modified Omori Model (MOM), the Modified Stretched Exponential model (MSE) and the Band Limited Power Law (LPL). We show that, if the background rate is modeled properly, the MSE or the LPL reproduce the aftershock rate decay generally better than the MOM and are preferable, on the basis of the Akaike and Bayesian information criteria, for about one half of the sequences. In particular the LPL, which is usually preferable with respect to the MSE and fits well the data of most sequences, might represent a valid alternative to the MOM in real-time forecasts of aftershock probabilities. We also show that the LPL generally fits the data better than a purely empirical formula equivalent to the aftershock rate equation predicted by the rate- and state-dependent friction model. This indicates that the emergence of a negative exponential decay at long times is a general property of many aftershock sequences but also that the process of aftershock generation is not fully described by current physical models.
    Description: Published
    Description: 183–193
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Aftershock; Omori's model; Stretched exponential law; Band Limited Power Law; Background rate; Rate- and state-dependent friction law ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
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  • 14
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    Aftershocks hazard in Italy Part I: Estimation of time-magnitude distribution model parameters and computation of probabilities of occurrence (2012)
    Kluwer Academic Publishers
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We analyzed the available instrumental data on Italian earthquakes from 1960 to 1996 to compute the parameters of the time-magnitude distribution model proposed by Reasenberg and Jones (1989) and currently used to make aftershock forecasting in California. From 1981 to 1996 we used the recently released Catalogo Strumentale dei Terremoti ‘Italiani’ (CSTI) (Instrumental Catalog Working Group, 2001) joining the data of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) and of the Italian major local seismic network, with magnitude revalued according to Gasperini (2001). From 1960 to 1980 we used instead the Progetto Finalizzato Geodinamica (PFG) catalog (Postpischl, 1985) with magnitude corrected to be homogeneous with the following period. About 40 sequences are detected using two different algorithms and the results of themodeling for the corresponding ones are compared. The average values of distribution parameters (p = 0.93±0.21, Log10(c) = –1.53±0.54, b = 0.96±0.18 and a = –1.66±0.72) are in fair agreement with similar computations performed in other regions of the World. We also analyzed the spatial variation of model parameters that can be used to predict the sequence behavior in the first days of future Italian seismic crisis, before a reliable modeling of the ongoing sequence is available. Moreover some nomograms to expeditiously estimate probabilities and rates of aftershock in Italy are also computed.
    Description: Published
    Description: 235-257
    Description: 2.6. TTC - Laboratorio di gravimetria, magnetismo ed elettromagnetismo in aree attive
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: aftershocks probability, earthquake clustering, Gutenberg-Richter law, magnitude calibration, Omori’s formula ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
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  • 15
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    Time variations of aftershock decay parameters of the 2009 April 6 L’Aquila (central Italy) earthquake: evidence of the emergence of a negative exponential regime superimposed to the power law (2012)
    WILEY
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We analysed the time evolution of the decay parameters of the L’Aquila aftershock sequence, neglecting spatial variability. During the first two months after the main shock, the sequence showed quite unusual properties: a particularly slow decay of the aftershock rate that progressively accelerated and a very scarce sensitivity to the occurrence of strong aftershocks. In the first few days, the decrease of the aftershock rate was compatible with an Omori’s process with power-law exponent p ≈ 0.5. The successive increase of the exponent up to about p = 1.2 in the following months can be interpreted as the emergence of a negative exponential regime that has been found to control the decay of other sequences occurred in Italy and California. In fact, two decay models, even including a negative exponential term, reproduce the aftershock rate in the first 60 days significantly better than the Omori’s law according to the Akaike information criteria. In this time interval, the strongest aftershocks do not seem to have produced significant increases of the aftershock rate while a couple of them seem to be preceded, rather than followed, by a slight increase of the rate. Consequently, epidemic models do not perform significantly better than non-epidemic ones for durations shorter than 60–80 days. A slow change of decay parameters seems to have been preceded a clear increase of the rate occurred 80 days after the main shock in correspondence of a relatively strong aftershock in the main fault area and of the activation of a previously silent fault segment in the NW. As a consequence of such reactivation, epidemic models become preferable with respect to non-epidemic ones for longer durations. The L’Aquila main shock productivity is the highest ever observed in Italy since the installation of a modern seismic network in Italy in mid 1980s, as the number of generated aftershock is from three to 10 times higher than for any previous earthquake of similar magnitude.
    Description: Published
    Description: 764–774
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction; Statistical seismology ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
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  • 16
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    Studio multidisciplinare per la caratterizzazione ed identificazione di aree sismicamente attive in Appennino: metodi geologici, geofisici e statistici (2012)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-03
    Description: Lo studio effettuato in questa tesi di Dottorato ha lo scopo di integrare metodologie di analisi diverse - geologiche, geofisiche e statistiche - per contribuire alla determinazione del potenziale sismico, che è la diretta espressione dell’attività del campo di stress attualmente agente e responsabile della sismicità. Queste tre diverse metodologie sono state applicate in due aree selezionate ubicate lungo la catena appenninica, in corrispondenza delle conche intramontane di origine tettonica. La scelta di queste aree si basa anche sul presupposto che esse possano avere un notevole potenziale sismico essendo caratterizzate da importanti eventi storici di elevata magnitudo. Tra le metodologie applicate in questo studio, i metodi geologici mirano alla comprensione dell’evoluzione quaternaria delle depressioni intrappenniniche con particolare riguardo al riconoscimento ed alla valutazione delle evidenze di tettonica attiva. I metodi geofisici sono stati applicati per studiare e definire meglio il campo di stress attraverso l’analisi dei dati di borehole breakout, dei meccanismi focali dei terremoti e del test di Leak-off. Tutte le tecniche sono volte a determinare le componenti relative al campo di stress quali orientazione (Shmin ed asse-T), tipo di regime (normale, trascorrente o inverso) e sua quantificazione (pressioni in MPa). È stato inizialmente affrontato uno studio della sismicità storica e strumentale, attraverso l’analisi dei vari cataloghi, per integrare le conoscenze sulla geodinamica dell’Appennino, sull’assetto geologico-strutturale profondo, sulla definizione delle strutture sismogeniche, sulla distribuzione e sul potenziale sismico delle aree campioni. È stata affrontata l’analisi delle sequenze sismiche per determinare la distribuzione areale ed in profondità degli eventi, l’orientazione ed il tipo di regime di stress e la stima del tensore dello stress regionale mediante il metodo di inversione di GEPHART & FORSYTH (1984). Infine, sono stati applicati due metodi statistici per studiare la distribuzione spazio-temporale dei terremoti tramite due approcci non-parametrici: l’analisi multivariata che implementa il dato di sismicità con quello geologico-strutturale (FAENZA et al., 2003) ed il metodo di TANNER & WONG, 1984) che utilizza solo i dati di sismicità relativi ad un campione omogeneo. Infine, è stata calcolata la probabilità di evento nelle due aree campioni.
    Description: Universitá di Bologna "Alma Mater Studiorum" e INGV
    Description: Unpublished
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: open
    Keywords: Borehole breakout ; Leak-off analysis ; Active Faults ; Earthquake ; Central Apennines ; Southernl Apennines ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: thesis
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  • 17
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    A new perspective in identifying the precursory patterns of eruptions (2012)
    Springer Berlin Heidelberg
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-03
    Description: The complexity of the processes responsible for volcanic eruptions makes a theoretical approach to forecasting the evolution of volcanic unrest rather difficult. A feasible strategy for this purpose appears to be the identification of possible repetitive schemes (patterns) in the pre-eruptive unrest of volcanoes. Nevertheless, the limited availability and the heterogeneity of pre-eruptive data, and the objective difficulty in quantitatively recognizing complex pre-eruptive patterns, make this task very difficult. In this work we address this issue by using a pattern recognition approach applied to the seismicity recorded during 217 volcanic episodes of unrest around the world. In particular, we use two non-parametric algorithms that have proven to give satisfactory results in dealing with a small amount of data, even if not normally distributed and/or characterized by discrete or categorical values. The results show evidence of a longer period of instability in the unrest preceding an eruption, compared to isolated unrest. This might indicate, even if not necessarily, a difference in the energy of processes responsible for the two types of unrest. However, if the unrest is followed by an eruption, it seems that the seismic energy released during the unrest (parameterized by the duration of the swarm and the maximum magnitude recorded) is not indicative of the magnitude of the impending eruption. We also found that, in general, unrest followed by the largest explosive eruptions have a longer repose time than those related to moderate eruptions. This evidence supports the fact that the occurrence of a large eruption needs a sufficient amount of time after the last event in order to re-charge the feeding system and to achieve a closed-conduit regime so that a sufficiently large amount of gas can be accumulated.
    Description: Published
    Description: 263–275
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Precursory pattern ; Common pattern ; Pattern recognition ; Volcanic unrest ; Seismic swarm ; Volcanic explosivity ; Index VEI ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 18
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    Some insights on the occurrence of recent volcanic eruptions of Mount Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy) (2012)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-03
    Description: In the first part of this work, we make use of two non-parametric statistical pattern recognition algorithms and a multiple regression analysis to analyse seismic clusters occur ring around Mount Etna, Italy. The aim is to determine if the onset of flank eruptions at Mount Etna is linked to variations in the regional seismicity at a timescale of few weeks. From the analysis, we find that the discrimination between clusters preceding flank eruptions and clusters not related in time to flank activity is mainly linked to the volume output of the previous flank eruption, in some cases together with the time elapsed from its end. Instead, we do not find any difference in the seismicity features characterizing different types of clusters, except for a very small contribution of the number of seismic events in the clusters. This result does not confirm the existence, suggested in the past, of a direct link between the regional state of stress at a timescale of few weeks and the occurrence of flank eruptions on Mount Etna volcano. On the contrary, the result suggests that a prominent role in the flank eruption occur rence is played by the re-charging of the feeding system. In the second part of this study we analyse the relationship between the magma volume erupted in an eruption and the interevent time following it, finding that a ‘time-predictable model’ satisfactorily describes the occurrence of eruptions at Mount Etna in the last decades. The latter analysis is car ried out both on the flank eruption catalogue only, and on the complete catalogue of flank and summit eruptions, with comparable results.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1203–1218
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: flank eruptions ; Mount Etna volcano ; regional tectonic stress ; statistical pattern recognition ; time predictability ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 19
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    Correlation between the parameters of the aftershock rate equation: Implications for the forecasting of future sequences (2012)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We analyzed the correlations among the parameters of the Reasenberg and Jones [Reasenberg, P.A., Jones, L.M., 1989. Earthquake hazard after a mainshock in California, Science 243, 1173–1176] formula describing the aftershock rate after a mainshock as a function of time and magnitude, on the basis of parameter estimates made in previous works for New Zealand, Italy and California. For all of three datasets we found that the magnitude-independent productivity a is significantly correlated with the b-value of the Gutenberg–Richter law and, in some cases, with parameters p and c of the modified Omori’s law. We also found significant correlations between p and c but, different from some previous works, not between p and b.We verified that assuming a coefficient for mainshock magnitude α≈2/3b (instead of b) removes the correlation between a and b and improves the ability to forecast the behavior of Italian sequences occurred from 1997 to 2003 on the basis of average parameters estimated from sequences occurred from 1981 to 1996. This assumption well agrees with direct α estimates made in the framework of an epidemic type model (ETAS) from the data of some large Italian sequences. Our results suggest a modification of the original Reasenberg and Jones (1989) formulation leading to predict lower rates (and probabilities) for stronger mainshocks and conversely higher rates for weaker ones. We also inferred that the correlation of a with p and c might be the consequence of the trade-off between the two parameters of the modified Omori’s law. In this case the correlation can be partially removed by renormalizing the time-dependent part of the rate equation. Finally, the absence of correlation between p and b, observed for all the examined datasets, indicates that such correlation, previously inferred from theoretical considerations and empirical results in some regions, does not represent a common property of aftershock sequences in different part of the world.
    Description: Published
    Description: 41-58
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Aftershocks forecasting; Omori law; Gutenberg–Richter law; Parameters correlation ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
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  • 20
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    Comparing different models of aftershock rate decay: The role of catalog incompleteness in the first times after main shock (2012)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We evaluated the efficiency of various models in describing the time decay of aftershock rate of 47 simple sequences occurred in California (37) from 1933 to 2004 and in Italy (10) from 1976 to 2004.We compared the models by the corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), both based on the log-likelihood function and also including a penalty term that takes into account the number of independent observations and of free parameters of each model. These criteria follow two different approaches (probabilistic and Bayesian respectively) well covering the wide spectra of current views on model comparison. To evaluate the role of catalog incompleteness in the first times after the main shock, we compared the performance of different models by varying the starting time Ts and the minimum magnitude threshold Mmin for each sequence. We found that Omori-type models including parameter c are preferable to those not including it, only for short Ts and low Mmin while the latters generally perform better than the formers for Ts longer than a few hours and Mmin larger than the main shock magnitude Mm minus 3 units. For TsN1 day or MminNMm−2.5, only about 15% of the sequences still give a preference to models including c. This clearly indicates that a value of parameter c different from zero does not represent a general property of aftershock sequences in California and Italy but it is very likely induced in most cases by catalog incompleteness in the first times after the main shock.We also considered other models of aftershock decay proposed in the literature: the Stretched Exponential Law in two forms (including and not including a time shift) and the band Limited Power Law (LPL).We found that such models perform worse than the Modified Omori Model (MOM) and other Omori-type models for the large majority of sequences, although for LPL, the relatively short duration of the analyzed sequences (one year) might also contribute to its poor performance. Our analysis demonstrates that the MOMwith c kept fixed to 0 represent the better choice for the modeling (and the forecasting) of simple sequence behavior in California and Italy.
    Description: Published
    Description: 43-59
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Aftershocks decay; Omori law; Band limited power law; Stretched exponential law; Earthquake catalog incompleteness 1. Introduction ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
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  • 21
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    Non poisson distribution of the time distances between two consecutive clusters of earthquakes (2012)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: With the help of the di0usion entropy technique we show the non-Poisson statistics of the distances between consecutive Omori’s swarms of earthquakes. We give an analytical proof ofthe numerical results of an earlier paper (Phys. Rev. Lett. 90 (2003) 188501).
    Description: Published
    Description: 201-205
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Earthquakes; Time-series analysis; Anomalous scaling ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
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  • 22
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    Spatial vent opening probability map of Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy) (2012)
    Springer Berlin Heidelberg
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We produce a spatial probability map of vent opening (susceptibility map) at Etna, using a statistical analysis of structural features of flank eruptions of the last 2 ky. We exploit a detailed knowledge of the volcano structures, including the modalities of shallow magma transfer deriving from dike and dike-fed fissure eruptions analysis on historical eruptions. Assuming the location of future vents will have the same causal factors as the past eruptions, we converted the geological and structural data in distinct and weighted probability density functions, which were included in a non-homogeneous Poisson process to obtain the susceptibility map. The highest probability of new eruptive vents opening falls within a N-S aligned area passing through the Summit Craters down to about 2,000 ma.s.l. on the southern flank. Other zones of high probability follow the North-East, East-North-East, West, and South Rifts, the latter reaching low altitudes (∼400 m). Less susceptible areas are found around the faults cutting the upper portions of Etna, including the western portion of the Pernicana fault and the northern extent of the Ragalna fault. This structuralbased susceptibility map is a crucial step in forecasting lava flow hazards at Etna, providing a support tool for decision makers.
    Description: This study was performed with the financial support from the V3-LAVA project (DPC-INGV 2007–2009 contract).
    Description: Published
    Description: 2083–2094
    Description: 1.5. TTC - Sorveglianza dell'attività eruttiva dei vulcani
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Flank eruption ; Dike ; Volcano structure ; Susceptibility map ; Spatial clustering ; Back analysis ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.99. General or miscellaneous
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  • 23
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    Multivariate time series clustering on geophysical data recorded at Mt. Etna from 1996 to 2003 (2012)
    Elsevier B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Time series clustering is an important task in data analysis issues in order to extract implicit, previously unknown, and potentially useful information froma large collection of data. Finding useful similar trends inmultivariate time series represents a challenge in several areas including geophysics environment research. While traditional time series analysis methods deal only with univariate time series, multivariate time series analysis is a more suitable approach in the field of researchwhere different kinds of data are available. Moreover, the conventional time series clustering techniques do not provide desired results for geophysical datasets due to the huge amount of data whose sampling rate is different according to the nature of signal. In this paper, a novel approach concerning geophysical multivariate time series clustering is proposed using dynamic time series segmentation and Self Organizing Maps techniques. This method allows finding coupling among trends of different geophysical data recorded from monitoring networks at Mt. Etna spanning from 1996 to 2003, when the transition from summit eruptions to flank eruptions occurred. This information can be used to carry out a more careful evaluation of the state of volcano and to define potential hazard assessment at Mt. Etna.
    Description: Thisworkwas partially funded by INGV and the DPC-INGV project “Flank”.
    Description: Published
    Description: 65-74
    Description: 1.5. TTC - Sorveglianza dell'attività eruttiva dei vulcani
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: data mining ; features extraction ; time series clustering ; self organizing maps ; Etna ; summit and flank eruptions ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.02. Geological and geophysical evidences of deep processes ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.01. Data processing ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
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  • 24
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    Basic principles of multi-risk assessment: a case study in Italy (2012)
    Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-02-05
    Description: The assessment of the impact of different catastrophic events in a given area requires innovative approaches that allow risks comparison and that account for all the possible risk interactions. In the common practice, the risk evaluation related to different sources is generally done through independent analyses, adopting disparate procedures and time–space resolutions. Such a strategy of risks evaluation has some evident major drawbacks as, for example, it is difficult (if not impossible) to compare the risk of different origins, and the implicit assumption of independence of the risk sources leads to neglect possible interactions among threats and/or cascade effects. The latter may amplify the overall risk, and potentially the multi-risk index could be higher than the simple aggre- gation of single-risk indexes calculated considering each source as independent from the others. In this paper, we put forward some basic principles for multi-risk assessment, and we consider a real application to Casalnuovo municipality (Southern Italy), in which we face the problem to make different hazards comparable, and we highlight when and how possible interactions among different threats may become important.
    Description: FP6 European project NaRaS; FP7 European project MATRIX
    Description: Published
    Description: 551-573
    Description: 4.4. Scenari e mitigazione del rischio ambientale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: multi-risk assessment ; hazard interaction ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.01. Environmental risk
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    Influence of observation floor and building height on macroseismic intensity (2012)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The perception of an earthquake depends on whether the observer is located on a lower or upper floor within a building. Macroseismic scales propose only a qualitative description of the varying effects felt that are dependent on the floor the observer is on. To quantify these effects, in this study, we analyze 45,000 macroseismic questionnaires collected in Italy reporting on transitory effects. The questionnaires pertain to buildings no more than 10 stories high and are derived from municipalities experiencing a Mercalli-Cancani-Sieberg (MCS) intensity less than or equal to VII with the majority being III and IV. We find that the intensity variation caused by the increased shaking on upper floors can be quantified. The upper floor intensity increases by 0.4 MCS compared with ground and underground levels. After correcting for an average floor-dependence factor, we find a further building height effect evident in short buildings that are probably exposed to less intense shaking. This effect displays a variation with the hypocentral distance reaching an MCS intensity of -0.3 at distances on the order of 200 km.
    Description: Published
    Description: 261-266
    Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: observation floor ; building height ; macroseismic intensity ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.02. Seismological data
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  • 26
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    Implementazione di una nuova procedura per caratterizzare la forma di particelle mediante misure al CAMSIZER e algoritmi di clustering (2012)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this work we present the calibration phase of a new procedure for the characterization of the shape of pyroclastic particles. This research has been granted by INGV of Catania, with funds deriving from the “Progetto Giovani”, in collaboration with Retsch Technology in Haan. The innovation of this procedure arises from the use of CAMSIZER (an instrument developed by the German leader company). This instrument permits to obtain very important information both on size and shape parameters of a high number of particles (hundreds of thousands data). Moreover, we used clustering and classification algorithms in order to group particles according to their morphologic characteristics. This calibration phase has been tested only on standard materials with regular geometries such as cubes, spheres and cylinders. In the future we will apply this methodology to volcanic ash particles that, as well-known, are characterized by irregular morphologies.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1-19
    Description: 1.1. TTC - Monitoraggio sismico del territorio nazionale
    Description: 2.3. TTC - Laboratori di chimica e fisica delle rocce
    Description: N/A or not JCR
    Description: open
    Keywords: shape analysis, CAMSIZER, instruments, volcanic particles, standards, pyroclastic rocks, ashes, lapilli, clustering, ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.02. Experimental volcanism ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.05. Volcanic rocks ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.02. Cellular automata, fuzzy logic, genetic alghoritms, neural networks ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.05. Algorithms and implementation
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  • 27
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    Bayesian Event Tree (BET) approach to Near Real Time monitoring on active volcanoes within ASI-SRV project: Mt. Etna test case (2012)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: ASI-Sistema Rischio Vulcanico (SRV) project is devoted to the development of a pre-operative integrated system managing different Earth Observation (EO) and Non EO data to respond to specific needs of the Italian Civil Protection Department (DPC) and improve the monitoring of Italian active volcanoes. The project provides the capability to maintain a repository where the acquired data are stored and generates products offering a support to risk managers during the different volcanic activity phases. All the products are obtained considering technical choices and developments of ASI-SRV based on flexible and scalable modules which take into account also the new coming space sensors and new processing algorithms. An important step of the project development regards the technical and scientific feasibility of the provided products that depends on the data availability, accuracy algorithms and models used in the processing and of course the possibility to validate the results by means of comparison with non-EO independent measurements. The multivariate analysis allows to perform multiple comparisons in order to have a first idea of which variables are largely preferentially or rather rarely distributed, also considering their geographic localization. The “Volcanic Parameter” cross correlation will allow to define the weight of each product that will be used as input in the BET-EF model (Bayesian Event Tree model for eruption forecasting ) which is an already developed algorithm for the eruption model, and will be adapt, as it is, to the ASI-SRV needs. The BET model represents a flexible tool to provide probabilities of any specific event at which we are interested in, by merging any kind of available and relevant information, such as theoretical models, a priori beliefs, monitoring measures, and past data. It is mainly based on a Bayesian procedure and it relies on the fuzzy approach to manage monitoring data. The method deals with short- and long-term forecasting, therefore it can be useful in many practical aspects, as land use planning, and during volcanic emergencies. For this work we have used a part of data that come from the monitoring of the Etna volcano, in particular the ground deformation measured by GPS stations ( time series from 2002 to 2006 ), SO2 flux measured by COSPEC method ( time series from 1996 to 2009 ) and the number of flank and summit eruptions from 1970 to 2009. Moreover deformation pattern analyzed with the InSar technique applied on EO Radar data and further products derived by EO optical data complete the used data set. All these data have been inserted in BET, where they have been transformed by a numerical method, with a mathematical algorithm, into likelihood of eruption. The produced results will be disseminated through a WEB-GIS interface which will allow a multidisciplinary analysis improving the monitoring activity on Mt. Etna.
    Description: Unpublished
    Description: Vienna
    Description: 1.10. TTC - Telerilevamento
    Description: open
    Keywords: bayesian tree volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
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  • 28
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    A Brownian Model for Recurrent Volcanic Eruptions: an Application to Miyakejima Volcano (Japan) (2012)
    Springer Berlin Heidelberg
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-02-05
    Description: The definition of probabilistic models as mathematical structures to describe the response of a volcanic system is a plausible approach to characterize the temporal behavior of volcanic eruptions, and constitutes a tool for long-term eruption forecasting. This kind of approach is motivated by the fact that volcanoes are complex systems in which a com- pletely deterministic description of the processes preceding eruptions is practically impos- sible. To describe recurrent eruptive activity we apply a physically-motivated probabilistic model based on the characteristics of the Brownian passage-time (BPT) distribution; the physical process defining this model can be described by the steady rise of a state variable from a ground state to a failure threshold; adding Brownian perturbations to the steady load- ing produces a stochastic load-state process (a Brownian relaxation oscillator) in which an eruption relaxes the load state to begin a new eruptive cycle. The Brownian relaxation os- cillator and Brownian passage-time distribution connect together physical notions of unob- servable loading and failure processes of a point process with observable response statistics. The Brownian passage-time model is parameterized by the mean rate of event occurrence, μ , and the aperiodicity about the mean, α . We apply this model to analyze the eruptive his- tory of Miyakejima volcano, Japan, finding a value of 44.2(±6.5 years) for the μ parameter and 0.51(±0.01) for the (dimensionless) α parameter. The comparison with other models often used in volcanological literature shows that this pysically-motivated model may be a good descriptor of volcanic systems that produce eruptions with a characteristic size. BPT is clearly superior to the exponential distribution and the fit to the data is comparable to other two-parameters models. Nonetheless, being a physically-motivated model, it provides an insight into the macro-mechanical processes driving the system.
    Description: INGV - Sezione di Bologna; Universita' di Bologna - Marco Polo program
    Description: Published
    Description: 545-558
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Probabilistic models; Brownian passage-time distribution; ; Hazard function; Miyakejima volcano ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.01. Environmental risk
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    Characterization of GPS time series at the Neapolitan volcanic area by statistical analysis (2011)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-02-03
    Description: The GPS time series recorded at the Neapolitan volcanic area reveals a very peculiar behavior. When a clear deformation is observed, the amplitude distribution evolves from a super‐Gaussian to a broader distribution. This behavior can be characterized by evaluating the kurtosis. Spurious periodic components were evidenced by independent component analysis and then removed by filtering the original signal. The time series for all stations was modeled with a fifth‐order polynomial fit, which represents the deformation history at that place. Indeed, when this polynomial is subtracted from the time series, the distributions again become super‐Gaussian. A simulation of the deformation time evolution was performed by superposing a Laplacian noise and a synthetic deformation history. The kurtosis of the obtained signals decreases as the superposition increases, enlightening the insurgence of the deformation. The presented approach represents a contribution aimed at adding further information to the studies about the deformation at the Neapolitan volcanic area by revealing geologically relevant data.
    Description: Published
    Description: B10416
    Description: 1.3. TTC - Sorveglianza geodetica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: GPS time series ; Neapolitan volcanic ; statistical analysis ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
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  • 30
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    An information theory approach to the storm‐substorm relationship (2011)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: One of the most interesting aspects of the global magnetospheric response to solar wind changes is the relationship between storms and substorms. Here we present new results on the relationship between these two different classes of magnetospheric phenomena by approaching the problem on the side of information theory. Using the Auroral Electrojet AL and SYM‐H indices as representative proxies of magnetic substorms and storms, we investigate the transfer of information by means of transfer entropy analysis (Schreiber, 2000). The obtained results seem, on average, to indicate the presence of a net transfer of information from AL to SYM‐H on time scales shorter than 10 h. On the basis of this result, geomagnetic substorms may act as a driver for the occurrence of geomagnetic storms. However, carrying out a more careful analysis which takes into account the global geomagnetic daily activity, we suggest that the direction of information flow between substorms and storms depends on the global activity level. Indeed, if it is true that a sequence of magnetospheric substorms may drive a moderate storm, it is also true that very large storms may dominate and drive the occurrence of magnetospheric substorms.
    Description: Published
    Description: A08225
    Description: 3.9. Fisica della magnetosfera, ionosfera e meteorologia spaziale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Storm-substorm relationship ; Information theory ; 01. Atmosphere::01.03. Magnetosphere::01.03.02. Magnetic storms ; 01. Atmosphere::01.03. Magnetosphere::01.03.03. Magnetospheric physics ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
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    Rank ordering multifractal analysis of the auroral electrojet index (2011)
    Copernicus Publications
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In the second half of the 90s interest grew on the complex features of the magnetospheric dynamics in response to solar wind changes. An important series of papers were published on the occurrence of chaos, turbulence and complexity. Among them, particularly interesting was the study of the bursty and fractal/multifractal character of the high latitude energy release during geomagnetic storms, which was evidenced by analyzing the features of the Auroral Electrojet (AE) indices. Recently, the multifractal features of the small time-scale increments of AE-indices have been criticized in favor of a more simple fractal behavior. This is particularly true for the scaling features of the probability density functions (PDFs) of the AE index increments. Here, after a brief review of the nature of the fractal/multifractal features of the magnetospheric response to solar wind changes, we investigate the multifractal nature of the scaling features of the AE index increments PDFs using the Rank Ordering Multifractal Analysis (ROMA) technique. The ROMA results clearly demonstrate the existence of a hierarchy of scaling indices, depending on the increment amplitude, for the data collapsing of PDFs relative to increments at different time scales. Our results confirm the previous results by Consolini et al. (1996) and the more recent results by Rypdal and Rypdal (2010).
    Description: Published
    Description: 277-285
    Description: 3.9. Fisica della magnetosfera, ionosfera e meteorologia spaziale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: AE index ; multifractal analysis ; 01. Atmosphere::01.03. Magnetosphere::01.03.03. Magnetospheric physics ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
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  • 32
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    Acoustic Emission spectra classification from rock samples of Etna basalt in deformation-decompression laboratory experiments (2011)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-02-24
    Description: Recent laboratory experiments on Etna basalt have permitted the generation of an extensive catalogue of acoustic emissions (AE) during two key experimental phases. Firstly, AE have been generated during triaxial compressional tests and formation of a complex fracture/damage zone. Secondly, rapid fluid decompression through the damage/shear zone after failure. We report new results from an advanced analysis method using AE spectrograms, allowing us to qualitatively identify high and low frequency events; essentially comparable to seismicity in volcanic areas. Our analysis, for the first time, quantitatively classifies ‘families’ of AE events belonging to the same experimental stage without prior knowledge. We then test the method using the AE catalogue for verification, which is not possible with field data. FFT spectra, obtained from AE, are subdivided into equal log intervals for which a local slope is calculated. Factor analysis has been then applied, in which we use a data matrix of columns representing the variables considered (frequency data averaged in bins) vs. rows indicating each AE data set. Factor analysis shows that the method is very effective and suitable for reducing data complexity, allowing distinct factors to be obtained. We conclude that most of the data variance (information content) can be well represented by three factors only, each one representing a well defined frequency range. Through the factor scores it is possible to represent data in a lower dimension factor space. Classification is then possible by identifying clusters of AE belonging to the same experimental stage. This allows us to propose a deformation/decompression interpretation based solely on the AE frequency analysis and to identify a third type of AE related to fluid movements in the deformation stage.
    Description: Published
    Description: 201-211
    Description: 1.2. TTC - Sorveglianza geochimica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: open
    Keywords: acoustic emissions ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.05. Volcanic rocks ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 33
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    Defining high-detail hazard maps by a cellular automata approach: application to Mount Etna (Italy) (2011)
    Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The individuation of areas that are more likely to be affected by new events in volcanic regions is of fundamental relevance for the mitigation of the possible consequences, both in terms of loss of human life and material properties. Here, we describe a methodology for defining flexible high-detail lava-hazard maps and a technique for the validation of the results obtained. The methodology relies on: (i) an accurate analysis of the past behavior of the volcano; (ii) a new version of the SCIARA model for lava-flow simulation (based on the macroscopic cellular automata paradigm); and (iii) high-performance parallel computing for increasing computational efficiency. The new release of the SCIARA model introduces a Bingham-like rheology as part of the minimization algorithm of the differences for the determination of outflows from a generic cell, and an improved approach to lava cooling. The method is here applied to Mount Etna, the most active volcano in Europe, and applications to landuse planning and hazard mitigation are presented.
    Description: This study was sponsored by the Italian National Civil Defence Department and the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), project V3_6/09 "V3_6 – Etna".
    Description: Published
    Description: 568-578
    Description: 1.5. TTC - Sorveglianza dell'attività eruttiva dei vulcani
    Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: volcanic risk ; cellular automata ; Algorithms and implementation ; Statistical analysis ; Data processing ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.03. Magmas ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.01. Data processing ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.02. Cellular automata, fuzzy logic, genetic alghoritms, neural networks ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.99. General or miscellaneous
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  • 34
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    Quantitative assessment of volcanic ash hazards for health and infrastructure at Mt. Etna (Italy) by numerical simulation (2011)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We performed a quantitative hazard assessment to determine the potential impacts of volcanic tephra fall on human health and infrastructure in the vicinity of Mt. Etna (Italy). Using the numerical model VOL-CALPUFF, we explored the dynamics of long-lasting weak plume eruptions and their effects on the surrounding region. Input data are based on credible estimates of the main parameters characterising the expected events as derived from the historically observed and reconstructed explosive record of Mt. Etna. Monte Carlo techniques are used to capture the effects on estimates of finer ash concentration and total ground deposition due to volcanological uncertainties and meteorological variability. Numerical simulations compute the likelihoods of experiencing critical 10-μm volcanic particle (VP10) concentrations in ambient air and tephra ground deposition at various populated locations around the volcano, including the city of Catania, and at key infrastructure, such as airports and main roads. Results show how the towns and infrastructure on the east side of the volcano are significantly more exposed to ash-related hazards than those on the west side, in accordance with wind statistics. Simulation outcomes also illustrate how, at the sites analysed, the amount of deposited particulate matter is proportional to the intensity (i.e. mass flow rate) of the event whereas predicted values of VP10 concentrations are significantly larger for smaller events due to the reduced dispersal of low altitude plumes. The use of a simple re-mobilization model highlights the fact that particle re-suspension needs to be considered in the estimation of VP10 values. Our findings can be used to inform civil protection agencies responsible for mitigating tephra fall impacts to human health, road transport and aviation safety.
    Description: Published
    Description: 85-96
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: volcanic ash ; hazard assessment ; VP10 exposure ; numerical simulation ; VOL-CALPUFF ; Mt. Etna ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.07. Volcanic effects ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
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  • 35
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    Estimation of Signal to Noise Ratio for Unsupervised Hyperspectral Images (2011)
    Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Hyperspectral sensors have become a standard technology used in the techniques of observation by satellite and aerial platform for observing the terrestrial ecosystem with particular interest in the detection and identification of minerals, vegetation, materials and artificial environments. The detection of real materials depends on the coverage spectral resolution and signal to noise ratio of the spectrometer itself, as well as the density of the material and the absorption characteristics for the material in the region of wavelength measured. The signal to noise ratio in particular is one of the parameters that need to be estimated to establish the quality of images acquired by these systems. In this contribution a method to estimate the Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) for unsupervised hyperspectral images has been investigated. The method uses the computation of local means and local standard deviations of small homogeneous blocks in order to define respectively the average signal and the mean noise of the images. If the noise may be considered mainly addictive the local standard deviation may be considered as the mean noise of image. This method uses all the spatial information contained in the image scene giving a representative SNR of entire image. The technique has been engineered in IDL environment and applied to hyperspectral data of HYPER-SIMGA sensor, developed in the frame of AIRFIRE Project for wildfire detection by airborne remote sensing data. The SNR results point out that HYPER-SIMGA SWIR images are quite noisy and the spectral range that has to be taken into account for data analysis is from 1000 to 1700 nm.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1-18
    Description: 1.10. TTC - Telerilevamento
    Description: N/A or not JCR
    Description: open
    Keywords: Hypespectral SNR ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.01. Data processing ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
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  • 36
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    Stacked analysis of earthquake sequences: statistical space-time definition of clustering and Omori law behavior (2011)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The definition of the aftershocks sequence is still a debated topic. We here propose a study of the spatial and temporal variation of the earthquakes clustering and rate decay. We used five different seismic catalogues, characterized by specific spatial and magnitude ranges. They are respectively: world one, for a global analysis, Greek, Japanese, Californian and Italian regional catalogues in order to investigate different seismo-tectonic settings. A stacking procedure has been applied to characterize a typical sequence behavior and allowing the evaluation of changes over time intervals (
    Description: Published
    Description: 323-337
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: open
    Keywords: seismicity ; fractal dimension ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 37
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    Detection of quarry and mine blast contamination in European regional catalogues (2010)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-11-16
    Description: The presence of quarry and mine blasts in seismic catalogues is detected using the Wiemer and Baer (Bull Seism Soc Am 90(2):525–530, 2000) algorithm. The procedure is based on the observation that quarry blasts generally take place during daytime hours: the areas with a high ratio of daytime and night-time events are likely to be regions with quarry activity. In the first part of this work we have tested the method, using both a synthetic and a regional catalogue; in the second part the procedure has been applied to some of the European regional catalogues available on line. The comparison between the results obtained and the location of known quarries and mines for the analysed catalogues confirms the reliability of the methodology in identifying mining areas.
    Description: This research was partially supported by the transnational access activity of the European Union project NERIES (contract number 026130)
    Description: Published
    Description: 229–249
    Description: 4IT. Banche dati
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: quarry blast; mine blast; seismic catalogue ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
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  • 38
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    Realizzazione di un geodatabase degli aspetti socio-economici e demografici delle aree colpite dal terremoto del 23.11.1980 (2010)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The geographical areas affected by the earthquake of 23/11/1980 have been very largely the "hinterland" of the Campania and Basilicata time were already considered the least developed and poorest. The earthquake, of magnitude 6.9, caused damage and destruction in a wide area in a radius of about 25 km from the epicenter in the provinces of Avellino, Salerno and Potenza. This work involves the collection and subsequent computerization in a geographic database of spatial data, social, economic, demographic and development at the time of the earthquake and subsequent years. The comparison and the geographical distribution of datasets will allow us to recognize the particular aspects of the development of these areas after the event.
    Description: Published
    Description: Bari, Italia
    Description: 5.5. TTC - Sistema Informativo Territoriale
    Description: open
    Keywords: 1980, geodatabase, gis, irpinia ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.05. Historical seismology ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Extended abstract
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  • 39
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    Detection of quarry and mine blast contamination in European regional catalogues (2010)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Seismic catalogues often include man-made contaminations, that range from the changes in seismic networks operating in the region to the different processing of the data and to the inclusion of quarry explosions and marine shots. For example, the installation or closure of seismic stations produce an increase or a decrease in the detection of small events, whilst quarry blasts or mine explosions artificially enrich catalogues. Despite network operators’ best efforts to identify quarry blasts, it is easy to find these events in a catalogue, whereas the separation between explosion events and tectonic ones is a difficult task. Detection and removing of artificial events from a seismic catalogue should be the preliminary step in any analysis of statistical seismology. Wiemer and Baer (BSSA, 2000) proposed an algorithm, based on a statistical criterion, to identify and remove quarry explosions from catalogues. It is based on the observation that quarry blasts generally take place during daytime hours: the areas with a high ratio of daytime and night-time events are likely to be regions with quarry activity. In the first part of this work (Gulia, NH, 2010) we have modified the method and then tested it, using both a synthetic and a regional catalogue; in the second part the procedure has been applied to some of the European regional catalogues available on line. The comparison between the results obtained and the location of known quarries and mines for the analyzed catalogues confirms both the presence of non-natural events in seismic catalogue and the reliability of the methodology in identifying mining areas.
    Description: Published
    Description: Montpellier
    Description: 5.2. TTC - Banche dati di sismologia strumentale
    Description: open
    Keywords: quarry blast ; man-made contaminations ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Poster session
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  • 40
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    Lava flow hazard at Nyiragongo volcano, D.R.C. 2. Hazard reduction in urban areas (2010)
    Springer-Verlag
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Mt. Nyiragongo is one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world for the risk associated with the propagation of lava flows. In 2002 several vents opened along a huge system of fractures, pouring out lava which reached and destroyed a considerable part of Goma, a town of about 500,000 inhabitants on the shore of Lake Kivu. In a companion paper (Favalli et al. in Bull Volcanol, this issue, 2008) we employed numerical simulations of probable lava flow paths to evaluate the lava flow hazard on the flanks of the volcano, including the neighbouring towns of Goma (DRC) and Gisenyi (Rwanda). In this paper we use numerical simulations to investigate the possibility of significantly reducing the lava flow hazard in the city through the construction of protective barriers. These barriers are added to the DEM of the area as additional morphological elements, and their effect is evaluated by repeating numerical simulations with and without the presence of barriers. A parametric study on barrier location, size, shape and orientation led to the identification of barriers which maximize protection while minimizing their impact. This study shows that the highest hazard area corresponding to eastern Goma, which was largely destroyed by lava flows in 2002, cannot be effectively protected from future lava flows towards Lake Kivu and should be abandoned. On the contrary, the rest of the town can be sheltered from lava flows by means of two barriers that deviate or contain the lava within the East Goma sector. A proposal for the future development of the town is formulated, whereby “new” Goma is completely safe from the arrival of lava flows originating from vents outside its boundaries. The proposal minimizes the risk of further destruction in town due to future lava flows.
    Description: Published
    Description: 375-387
    Description: 2.1. TTC - Laboratorio per le reti informatiche, GRID e calcolo avanzato
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Lava flow ; Nyiragongo ; Volcanic hazard ; Hazard mitigation ; Numerical simulations ; Lava barriers ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.05. Algorithms and implementation
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  • 41
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    Lava flow hazard at Nyiragongo volcano, D.R.C. 1. Model calibration and hazard mapping (2010)
    Springer Berlin / Heidelberg
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The 2002 eruption of Nyiragongo volcano constitutes the most outstanding case ever of lava flow in a big town. It also represents one of the very rare cases of direct casualties from lava flows, which had high velocities of up to tens of kilometer per hour. As in the 1977 eruption, which is the only other eccentric eruption of the volcano in more than 100 years, lava flows were emitted from several vents along a N–S system of fractures extending for more than 10 km, from which they propagated mostly towards Lake Kivu and Goma, a town of about 500,000 inhabitants. We assessed the lava flow hazard on the entire volcano and in the towns of Goma (D.R.C.) and Gisenyi (Rwanda) through numerical simulations of probable lava flow paths. Lava flow paths are computed based on the steepest descent principle, modified by stochastically perturbing the topography to take into account the capability of lava flows to override topographic obstacles, fill topographic depressions, and spread over the topography. Code calibration and the definition of the expected lava flow length and vent opening probability distributions were done based on the 1977 and 2002 eruptions. The final lava flow hazard map shows that the eastern sector of Goma devastated in 2002 represents the area of highest hazard on the flanks of the volcano. The second highest hazard sector in Goma is the area of propagation of the western lava flow in 2002. The town of Gisenyi is subject to moderate to high hazard due to its proximity to the alignment of fractures active in 1977 and 2002. In a companion paper (Chirico et al., Bull Volcanol, in this issue, 2008) we use numerical simulations to investigate the possibility of reducing lava flow hazard through the construction of protective barriers, and formulate a proposal for the future development of the town of Goma.
    Description: Published
    Description: 363-374
    Description: 2.1. TTC - Laboratorio per le reti informatiche, GRID e calcolo avanzato
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Lava flow ; Nyiragongo ; Volcanic hazard ; Numerical simulations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.05. Algorithms and implementation
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  • 42
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    BET_VH: exploring the influence of natural uncertainties on long-term hazard from tephra fallout at Campi Flegrei (Italy) (2010)
    Springer Berlin / Heidelberg
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this paper, we explore the effects of the intrinsic uncertainties upon long-term volcanic hazard by analyzing tephra fall hazard at Campi Flegrei, Italy, using the BET_VH model described in Marzocchi et al. (Bull Volcanol, 2010). The results obtained show that volcanic hazard based on the weighted average of all possible eruptive settings (i.e. size classes and vent locations) is significantly different from an analysis based on a single reference setting, as commonly used in volcanic hazard practice. The long-term hazard map for tephra fall at Campi Flegrei obtained here accounts for a wide spectrum of uncertainties which are usually neglected, largely reducing the bias intrinsically introduced by the choice of a specific reference setting. We formally develop and apply a general method to recursively integrate simulations from different models which have different characteristics in terms of spatial coverage, resolution and physical details. This outcome of simulations will be eventually merged with field data through the use of the BET_VH model.
    Description: Published
    Description: 717-733
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Volcanic hazard ; Ash fall · ; Bayesian event tree ; Campi Flegrei ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
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  • 43
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    The 2009 L'Aquila (Central Italy) seismic sequence as a chaotic process (2010)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this paper we demonstrate that the seismic sequence of foreshocks culminating with the recent Mw=6.3 main shock on April 6, 2009 in L'Aquila (Central Italy) evolved as a chaotic process. To do this, we apply a nonlinear retrospective prediction to this seismic sequence and look at the temporal behaviour of the error between predicted and actual occurrence of the main shock when gradually increasing parts of the sequence are considered. This is a generalisation of the typical nonlinear approach which is quite powerful to detect chaos in relatively short time series. The method of prediction is based on the Accelerated Strain Release (ASR) analysis in time and on the nonlinear forecasting approach in a reconstructed phase space. We find that i) the temporal decay of the prediction error is consistent with an exponential function with a time constant τ of about 10 days and ii) at around 6 days before the main shock, ASR analysis is quite powerful for anticipating the time of occurrence with an uncertainty of about a day. Due to its retrospective characteristics, the latter result could be affected by changes on some a-priori parameters used in the application of the ASR technique. However, we consider these findings, together with those obtained from the phase-space analysis, to be strong evidence that the studied sequence of foreshocks was produced by a physical process dominated by a significant chaotic component characterised by a K-entropy=1/τ of about 0.1 day−1. This result could have important implications for the predictability of the possible main shock for those seismic sequences showing analogous nonlinear chaotic properties.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Seismic sequence ; Chaotic process ; Accelerated Strain Release ; Nonlinear prediction ; Phase-space reconstruction ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
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  • 44
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    Principal components’ features of mid-latitude geomagnetic daily variation (2010)
    Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The ionospheric and magnetospheric current systems are responsible of the daily magnetic field changes. Recently, the Natural Orthogonal Components (NOC) technique has been applied to model the physical system responsible of the daily variation of the geomagnetic field, efficiently and accurately (Xu and Kamide, 2004). Indeed, this approach guarantees that the number of parameters used to represent the physical process is small as much as possible, and consequently process control for such system becomes apparent. We focus our present study on the analysis of the hourly means of the magnetic elements H, D and Z recorded at L’Aquila observatory in Italy from 1993 to 2004. We apply to this dataset the NOC technique to reconstruct the 3-dimensional structures of the different ionospheric and magnetospheric current systems which contribute to the geomagnetic daily variations. To support our interpretation in terms of the different ionospheric and magnetospheric current systems, the spectral and statistical features of the timedependent amplitudes associated to the set of natural orthogonal components are analyzed and compared to those of a set of descriptors of the magnetospheric dynamics and solar wind changes.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2213-2226
    Description: 3.9. Fisica della magnetosfera, ionosfera e meteorologia spaziale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Geomagnetic time variations ; Magnetospheric current systems ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.02. Geomagnetic field variations and reversals ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
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  • 45
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    Crustal heterogeneity highlighted by spatial b-value map in theWellington region of New Zealand (2010)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We map the b-value in the subduction zone of theWellington region, NewZealand, using a high quality earthquake catalogue relocated with a 3-D seismic velocity model, consisting of 50 314 events that occurred between 1990 and 2005. In order to investigate heterogeneity in the crust of the overlying plate and in the upper plane of the Wadati–Benioff Zone (WBZ), we analyse a series of cross-sections perpendicular to the strike of the subduction zone. We calculate the b-values selecting events with magnitude of completeness ≥2.4 and depth ≤65 km and projecting the seismicity within 20 km on each side of the cross-sectional planes. We observe areas of high b-value (∼1.7) near the plate interface and regions of low b-value anomalies are detected both in the WBZ in the northwest region below 40 km depth and in the overlying plate in the northern South Island at 10 km depth. The anomalies are statistically significant based on Utsu’s p-test and the bootstrap method and are not data processing method or parameter dependent. We compare the b-value distribution with previously determined 3-D distributions of Vp, Vp/Vs andQp from seismic tomography. This comparison suggests that material inhomogeneity, caused by fluid filled cracks resulting from dehydration of the subducted slab and subducted sediments, is the predominant cause of b-value variation in the shallow part of this subduction zone. Our observations are consistent with a previously proposed conceptual model that fluid distribution in the shallow part of this subduction zone is controlled by the permeability of geological terranes in the overlying plate.
    Description: Published
    Description: 451-460
    Description: 3.3. Geodinamica e struttura dell'interno della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Seismic attenuation ; Seismic tomography ; Statistical seismology ; Subduction zone processes ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.07. Tomography and anisotropy ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
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  • 46
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    Bayesian Hierarchical Time Predictable Model for eruption occurrence: an application to Kilauea Volcano (2010)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The physical processes responsible for volcanic eruptions are characterized by a large number of degrees of freedom, often non-linearly coupled. This extreme complexity leads to an intrinsic deterministic unpredictability of such events that can be satisfactorily described by a stochastic process. Here, we address the long-term eruption forecasting of open conduit volcanoes through a Bayesian Hierarchical Modelling information in the catalogue of past eruptions, such as the time of occurrence, the duration, and the erupted volumes. The aim of the model is twofold: (1) to get new insight about the physics of the process, using the model to test some basic physical hypotheses of the eruptive process and (2) to build a stochastic model for long-term eruption forecasting; this is the basic component of Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment that is used for rational land use planning and to design Emergency plan. We apply the model to Kilauea eruption occurrences and check its feasibility to be included in Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1525–1538
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Probabilistic forecasting ; Effusive volcanism ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
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  • 47
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    Testing forecasts of a new Bayesian time-predictable model of eruption occurrence (2010)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this paper we propose a model to forecast eruptions in a real forward perspective. Specifically, the model provides a forecast of the next eruption after the end of the last one, using only the data available up to that time. We focus our attention on volcanoes with open conduit regime and high eruption frequency. We assume a generalization of the classical time predictable model to describe the eruptive behavior of open conduit volcanoes and we use a Bayesian hierarchical model to make probabilistic forecasts. We apply the model to Kilauea volcano eruptive data and Mount Etna volcano flank eruption data. The aims of the proposed model are: (1) to test whether or not the Kilauea and Mount Etna volcanoes follow a time predictable behavior; (2) to discuss the volcanological implications of the time predictable model parameters inferred; (3) to compare the forecast capabilities of this model with other models present in literature. The results obtained using the MCMC sampling algorithm show that both volcanoes follow a time predictable behavior. The numerical values inferred for the parameters of the time predictable model suggest that the amount of the erupted volume could change the dynamics of the magma chamber refilling process during the repose period. The probability gain of this model compared with other models already present in literature is appreciably greater than zero. This means that our model provides better forecast than previous models and it could be used in a probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment scheme.
    Description: Published
    Description: 57–75
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: effusive volcanism ; Bayesian hierarchical modeling ; Mount Etna ; Kilauea ; probabilistic forecasting ; volcanic hazards ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 48
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    Deliverable # 3.01.5 Results of tectonic validation for the seismogenic source model (DISS) (2010)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: This deliverable materializes the results obtained in the Activity A3 that aims at a quantitative tectonic validation of the seismic source model contained in the DISS, version 3.1.0 (Basili et., 2008; DISS Working Group, 2009). The validation consists of three tests: 1) geometric; 2) kinematic; and 3) dynamic.
    Description: Agreement INGV-DPC 2007-2009 Project S1: Analysis of the seismic potential in Italy for the evaluation of the seismic hazard
    Description: Published
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: open
    Keywords: DISS ; seismogenic source ; active fault ; validation ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: report
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  • 49
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    Deliverable # D3.01.4 Probability of occurrence for earthquakes generated by individual faults and the associated uncertainties (2010)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Probabilities and uncertainties were calculated based on the approach developed by Akinci et al. (2008). The method was applied to the whole Italian territory using a dataset that integrates individual seismogenic sources derived from both geological/geophysical data and macroseismic data (see Basili et al., 2008, for definitions). We designed two model approaches: one that uses geological slip rates; another that uses slip rates derived from the finite element model developed by Barba et al, 2007. As for recurrence we adopted the Poisson and the Renewal BPT models with aperiodicity a equal to 0.3, 0.5 and 0.7, all for a prediction in the next 30 years. Complete results of these procedures are given in tabular form at the end of this document.
    Description: Agreement INGV-DPC 2007-2009 Project S1: Analysis of the seismic potential in Italy for the evaluation of the seismic hazard
    Description: Published
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: open
    Keywords: active fault ; earthquake probability ; uncertainties ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: report
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  • 50
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    Distribution of volcanic earthquake recurrence intervals (2010)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We analyze the distribution of volcanic earthquake recurrence intervals in the Vesuvio, Campi Flegrei, and Hawaii regions and compare it with tectonic recurrence rates in California. We find that the distribution behavior is similar for volcanic and tectonic seismic events. In both cases, the recurrence interval distributions collapse onto the same master curve if time is rescaled by the average occurrence rate. This implies that both phenomena have the same temporal organization, and it is possible to adopt for volcanic areas that the same occurrence models used for tectonic regions.
    Description: Published
    Description: B10309
    Description: 1.4. TTC - Sorveglianza sismologica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: volcanic earthquake ; recurrence intervals ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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