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  • 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis  (1)
  • Acoustics  (1)
  • Wiley  (2)
  • American Meteorological Society (AMS)
  • 2015-2019  (2)
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-10-20
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Baumgartner, M. F., Bonnell, J., Van Parijs, S. M., Corkeron, P. J., Hotchkin, C., Ball, K., Pelletier, L., Partan, J., Peters, D., Kemp, J., Pietro, J., Newhall, K., Stokes, A., Cole, T. V. N., Quintana, E., & Kraus, S. D. Persistent near real-time passive acoustic monitoring for baleen whales from a moored buoy: System description and evaluation. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 10(9), (2019): 1476-1489, doi: 10.1111/2041-210X.13244.
    Description: 1. Managing interactions between human activities and marine mammals often relies on an understanding of the real‐time distribution or occurrence of animals. Visual surveys typically cannot provide persistent monitoring because of expense and weather limitations, and while passive acoustic recorders can monitor continuously, the data they collect are often not accessible until the recorder is recovered. 2. We have developed a moored passive acoustic monitoring system that provides near real‐time occurrence estimates for humpback, sei, fin and North Atlantic right whales from a single site for a year, and makes those occurrence estimates available via a publicly accessible website, email and text messages, a smartphone/tablet app and the U.S. Coast Guard's maritime domain awareness software. We evaluated this system using a buoy deployed off the coast of Massachusetts during 2015–2016 and redeployed again during 2016–2017. Near real‐time estimates of whale occurrence were compared to simultaneously collected archived audio as well as whale sightings collected near the buoy by aerial surveys. 3. False detection rates for right, humpback and sei whales were 0% and nearly 0% for fin whales, whereas missed detection rates at daily time scales were modest (12%–42%). Missed detections were significantly associated with low calling rates for all species. We observed strong associations between right whale visual sightings and near real‐time acoustic detections over a monitoring range 30–40 km and temporal scales of 24–48 hr, suggesting that silent animals were not especially problematic for estimating occurrence of right whales in the study area. There was no association between acoustic detections and visual sightings of humpback whales. 4. The moored buoy has been used to reduce the risk of ship strikes for right whales in a U.S. Coast Guard gunnery range, and can be applied to other mitigation applications.
    Description: We thank Annamaria Izzi, Danielle Cholewiak and Genevieve Davis of the NOAA NEFSC for assistance in developing the analyst protocol. We are grateful to the NOAA NEFSC aerial survey observers (Leah Crowe, Pete Duley, Jen Gatzke, Allison Henry, Christin Khan and Karen Vale) and the NEAq aerial survey observers (Angela Bostwick, Marianna Hagbloom and Paul Nagelkirk). Danielle Cholewiak and three anonymous reviewers provided constructive criticism on earlier drafts of the manuscript. Funding for this project was provided by the NOAA NEFSC, NOAA Advanced Sampling Technology Work Group, Environmental Security Technology Certification Program of the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. Navy's Living Marine Resources Program, Massachusetts Clean Energy Center and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. Funding from NOAA was facilitated by the Cooperative Institute for the North Atlantic Region (CINAR) under Cooperative Agreement NA14OAR4320158.
    Keywords: Acoustics ; Autonomous ; Buoy ; Conservation ; Mitigation ; Real‐time ; Ship strikes ; Whale
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: During volcanic crises, volcanologists estimate the impact of possible imminent eruptions usually through deterministic modeling of the effects of one or a few preestablished scenarios. Despite such an approach may bring an important information to the decision makers, the sole use of deterministic scenarios does not allow scientists to properly take into consideration all uncertainties, and it cannot be used to assess quantitatively the risk because the latter unavoidably requires a probabilistic approach. We present a model based on the concept of Bayesian event tree (hereinafter named BET_VH_ST, standing for Bayesian event tree for short-term volcanic hazard), for short-term near-real-time probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis formulated for any potential hazardous phenomenon accompanying an eruption. The specific goal of BET_VH_ST is to produce a quantitative assessment of the probability of exceedance of any potential level of intensity for a given volcanic hazard due to eruptions within restricted time windows (hours to days) in any area surrounding the volcano, accounting for all natural and epistemic uncertainties. BET_VH_ST properly assesses the conditional probability at each level of the event tree accounting for any relevant information derived from the monitoring system, theoretical models, and the past history of the volcano, propagating any relevant epistemic uncertainty underlying these assessments. As an application example of the model, we apply BET_VH_ST to assess short-term volcanic hazard related to tephra loading during Major Emergency Simulation Exercise, a major exercise at Mount Vesuvius that took place from 19 to 23 October 2006, consisting in a blind simulation of Vesuvius reactivation, from the early warning phase up to the final eruption, including the evacuation of a sample of about 2000 people from the area at risk. The results show that BET_VH_ST is able to produce short-term forecasts of the impact of tephra fall during a rapidly evolving crisis, accurately accounting for and propagating all uncertainties and enabling rational decision making under uncertainty.
    Description: Published
    Description: 8805–8826
    Description: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: embargoed_20161231
    Keywords: short-term probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis ; bayesian event tree ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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