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  • Climate change  (17)
  • Sea ice  (7)
  • John Wiley & Sons  (21)
  • Springer  (2)
  • American Institute of Physics (AIP)
  • IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature, Bangladesh Country Office
  • 2015-2019  (24)
  • 1950-1954
  • 1
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    Climate change and functional traits affect population dynamics of a long‐lived seabird (2018)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2018. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Journal of Animal Ecology 87 (2018): 906-920, doi:10.1111/1365-2656.12827.
    Description: Recent studies unravelled the effect of climate changes on populations through their impact on functional traits and demographic rates in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, but such understanding in marine ecosystems remains incomplete. Here, we evaluate the impact of the combined effects of climate and functional traits on population dynamics of a long‐lived migratory seabird breeding in the southern ocean: the black‐browed albatross (Thalassarche melanophris, BBA). We address the following prospective question: “Of all the changes in the climate and functional traits, which would produce the biggest impact on the BBA population growth rate?” We develop a structured matrix population model that includes the effect of climate and functional traits on the complete BBA life cycle. A detailed sensitivity analysis is conducted to understand the main pathway by which climate and functional trait changes affect the population growth rate. The population growth rate of BBA is driven by the combined effects of climate over various seasons and multiple functional traits with carry‐over effects across seasons on demographic processes. Changes in sea surface temperature (SST) during late winter cause the biggest changes in the population growth rate, through their effect on juvenile survival. Adults appeared to respond to changes in winter climate conditions by adapting their migratory schedule rather than by modifying their at‐sea foraging activity. However, the sensitivity of the population growth rate to SST affecting BBA migratory schedule is small. BBA foraging activity during the pre‐breeding period has the biggest impact on population growth rate among functional traits. Finally, changes in SST during the breeding season have little effect on the population growth rate. These results highlight the importance of early life histories and carry‐over effects of climate and functional traits on demographic rates across multiple seasons in population response to climate change. Robust conclusions about the roles of various phases of the life cycle and functional traits in population response to climate change rely on an understanding of the relationships of traits to demographic rates across the complete life cycle.
    Description: NSF Grant Number: OPP‐1246407; European Research Council Advanced Grant Grant Numbers: ERC‐2012‐ADG_20120314, 322989
    Keywords: Birds ; Climate change ; Foraging behaviours ; Non‐breeding season ; Phenotypic traits ; Pre‐breeding season ; Timing of breeding ; Wing length
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 2
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    Under-ice phytoplankton blooms inhibited by spring convective mixing in refreezing leads (2018)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 123 (2018): 90–109, doi:10.1002/2016JC012575.
    Description: Spring phytoplankton growth in polar marine ecosystems is limited by light availability beneath ice-covered waters, particularly early in the season prior to snowmelt and melt pond formation. Leads of open water increase light transmission to the ice-covered ocean and are sites of air-sea exchange. We explore the role of leads in controlling phytoplankton bloom dynamics within the sea ice zone of the Arctic Ocean. Data are presented from spring measurements in the Chukchi Sea during the Study of Under-ice Blooms In the Chukchi Ecosystem (SUBICE) program in May and June 2014. We observed that fully consolidated sea ice supported modest under-ice blooms, while waters beneath sea ice with leads had significantly lower phytoplankton biomass, despite high nutrient availability. Through an analysis of hydrographic and biological properties, we attribute this counterintuitive finding to springtime convective mixing in refreezing leads of open water. Our results demonstrate that waters beneath loosely consolidated sea ice (84–95% ice concentration) had weak stratification and were frequently mixed below the critical depth (the depth at which depth-integrated production balances depth-integrated respiration). These findings are supported by theoretical model calculations of under-ice light, primary production, and critical depth at varied lead fractions. The model demonstrates that under-ice blooms can form even beneath snow-covered sea ice in the absence of mixing but not in more deeply mixed waters beneath sea ice with refreezing leads. Future estimates of primary production should account for these phytoplankton dynamics in ice-covered waters.
    Description: National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant Numbers: PLR-1304563 , PLR-1303617; KEL; NSF Graduate Research Fellowship Program Grant Number: DGE-0645962
    Description: 2018-07-07
    Keywords: Phytoplankton ; Under-ice blooms ; Leads ; Convective mixing ; Arctic ; Sea ice
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  • 3
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    Climate change and the threat of novel marine predators in Antarctica (2018)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ecosphere 8 (2017): 10.1002/ecs2.2017, doi:10.1002/ecs2.2017.
    Description: Historically low temperatures have severely limited skeleton-breaking predation on the Antarctic shelf, facilitating the evolution of a benthic fauna poorly defended against durophagy. Now, rapid warming of the Southern Ocean is restructuring Antarctic marine ecosystems as conditions become favorable for range expansions. Populations of the lithodid crab Paralomis birsteini currently inhabit some areas of the continental slope off Antarctica. They could potentially expand along the slope and upward to the outer continental shelf, where temperatures are no longer prohibitively low. We identified two sites inhabited by different densities of lithodids in the slope environment along the western Antarctic Peninsula. Analysis of the gut contents of P. birsteini trapped on the slope revealed them to be opportunistic invertivores. The abundances of three commonly eaten, eurybathic taxa—ophiuroids, echinoids, and gastropods—were negatively associated with P. birsteini off Marguerite Bay, where lithodid densities averaged 4280 ind/km2 at depths of 1100–1499 m (range 3440–5010 ind/km2), but not off Anvers Island, where lithodid densities were lower, averaging 2060 ind/km2 at these depths (range 660–3270 ind/km2). Higher abundances of lithodids appear to exert a negative effect on invertebrate distribution on the slope. Lateral or vertical range expansions of P. birsteini at sufficient densities could substantially reduce populations of their benthic prey off Antarctica, potentially exacerbating the direct impacts of rising temperatures on the distribution and diversity of the contemporary shelf benthos.
    Description: Division of Polar Programs Grant Numbers: ANT-0838466, ANT-0838844, ANT-1141877, ANT-1141896; Vetenskapsrådet Grant Number: 824-2008-6429; H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions Grant Number: 704895; U.S. National Science Foundation; European Commission; University of Alabama at Birmingham
    Keywords: Antarctica ; Bathyal ; Benthic ; Climate change ; Echinoidea ; Lithodidae ; Ophiuroidea ; Paralomis ; Polar emergence ; Predation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 4
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    Implications of future northwest Atlantic bottom temperatures on the American lobster (Homarus americanus) fishery (2018)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 122 (2017): 9387–9398, doi:10.1002/2017JC012949.
    Description: Sea surface temperatures of the northwest Atlantic have warmed dramatically over the last several decades, while benthic temperatures have increased at a slower pace. Here we analyze a subset of the CMIP5 global Earth system model ensemble using a statistical downscaling approach to determine potential future changes in benthic temperatures on the northwest Atlantic continental shelf and slope (〈500 m). We put future changes in the context of possible impacts of ocean warming on the high-value, wild-caught American Lobster (Homarus americanus) fishery. Future bottom temperatures of the northwest Atlantic under a business-as-usual (RCP8.5) and a climate-policy (RCP4.5) scenario are projected to increase by 0–1.5°C and 1.2–2.4°C by 2050 and 0–1.9°C and 2.3–4.3°C by the end of the century for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. H. americanus experiences thermal stress at temperatures above 20°C, and projected increases in temperature is likely to result in changes in the distribution of optimal thermal egg hatching and settlement indicators. Inshore regions of southern New England, where H. americanus biomass and catch have been declining historically, will likely become inhospitable under either future scenario, while thermal egg hatching and settlement indicators will expand offshore and in the Gulf of Maine. These changes imply that members of the fishery based in southern New England may need to recapitalize to larger vessels to prepare for potential changes brought on by future climate warming. Results from the downscaling presented here can be useful in preparing for potential changes to other fisheries or in future climate vulnerability analyses.
    Description: John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation Grant Number: 14-106159-000-CFP; NASA Grant Number: NNX14AP62A; “National Marine Sanctuaries as Sentinel Sites for a Demonstration Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON)”; National Ocean Partnership Program Grant Number: NOPP RFP NOAA-NOS IOOS-2014-2003803; NOAA Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) Program Office
    Keywords: Benthic temperature ; Climate change ; Warming ; American Lobster
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 5
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    Thirty-three years of ocean benthic warming along the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf and Slope : patterns, drivers, and ecological consequences (2018)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 122 (2017): 9399–9414, doi:10.1002/2017JC012953.
    Description: The U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf is experiencing rapid warming, with potentially profound consequences to marine ecosystems. While satellites document multiple scales of spatial and temporal variability on the surface, our understanding of the status, trends, and drivers of the benthic environmental change remains limited. We interpolated sparse benthic temperature data along the New England Shelf and upper Slope using a seasonally dynamic, regionally specific multiple linear regression model that merged in situ and remote sensing data. The statistical model predicted nearly 90% of the variability of the data, resulting in a synoptic time series spanning over three decades from 1982 to 2014. Benthic temperatures increased throughout the domain, including in the Gulf of Maine. Rates of benthic warming ranged from 0.1 to 0.4°C per decade, with fastest rates occurring in shallow, nearshore regions and on Georges Bank, the latter exceeding rates observed in the surface. Rates of benthic warming were up to 1.6 times faster in winter than the rest of the year in many regions, with important implications for disease occurrence and energetics of overwintering species. Drivers of warming varied over the domain. In southern New England and the mid-Atlantic shallow Shelf regions, benthic warming was tightly coupled to changes in SST, whereas both regional and basin-scale changes in ocean circulation affect temperatures in the Gulf of Maine, the Continental Shelf, and Georges Banks. These results highlight data gaps, the current feasibility of prediction from remotely sensed variables, and the need for improved understanding on how climate may affect seasonally specific ecological processes.
    Description: John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation Grant Number: 14–106159-000-CFP; National Aeronautics and Space Administration Grant Number: NNX14AP62A
    Keywords: Benthic habitat ; New England ; Warming ; Climate change ; Satellite remote sensing
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  • 6
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    A gradient of nutrient enrichment reveals nonlinear impacts of fertilization on Arctic plant diversity and ecosystem function (2017)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ecology and Evolution 7 (2017): 2449–2460, doi:10.1002/ece3.2863.
    Description: Rapid environmental change at high latitudes is predicted to greatly alter the diversity, structure, and function of plant communities, resulting in changes in the pools and fluxes of nutrients. In Arctic tundra, increased nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) availability accompanying warming is known to impact plant diversity and ecosystem function; however, to date, most studies examining Arctic nutrient enrichment focus on the impact of relatively large (〉25x estimated naturally occurring N enrichment) doses of nutrients on plant community composition and net primary productivity. To understand the impacts of Arctic nutrient enrichment, we examined plant community composition and the capacity for ecosystem function (net ecosystem exchange, ecosystem respiration, and gross primary production) across a gradient of experimental N and P addition expected to more closely approximate warming-induced fertilization. In addition, we compared our measured ecosystem CO2 flux data to a widely used Arctic ecosystem exchange model to investigate the ability to predict the capacity for CO2 exchange with nutrient addition. We observed declines in abundance-weighted plant diversity at low levels of nutrient enrichment, but species richness and the capacity for ecosystem carbon uptake did not change until the highest level of fertilization. When we compared our measured data to the model, we found that the model explained roughly 30%–50% of the variance in the observed data, depending on the flux variable, and the relationship weakened at high levels of enrichment. Our results suggest that while a relatively small amount of nutrient enrichment impacts plant diversity, only relatively large levels of fertilization—over an order of magnitude or more than warming-induced rates—significantly alter the capacity for tundra CO2 exchange. Overall, our findings highlight the value of measuring and modeling the impacts of a nutrient enrichment gradient, as warming-related nutrient availability may impact ecosystems differently than single-level fertilization experiments.
    Description: NASA Terrestrial Ecology Grant Number: NNX12AK83G; National Science Foundation Division of Graduate Education Grant Number: DGE-11-44155
    Keywords: Arctic ; Climate change ; Ecosystem function ; Ecosystem respiration ; Gross primary productivity ; Net ecosystem ; CO2 exchange ; Plant diversity
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  • 7
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    Circumpolar analysis of the Adélie Penguin reveals the importance of environmental variability in phenological mismatch (2017)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecology 98 (2017): 940-951, doi:10.1002/ecy.1749.
    Description: Evidence of climate-change-driven shifts in plant and animal phenology have raised concerns that certain trophic interactions may be increasingly mismatched in time, resulting in declines in reproductive success. Given the constraints imposed by extreme seasonality at high latitudes and the rapid shifts in phenology seen in the Arctic, we would also expect Antarctic species to be highly vulnerable to climate-change-driven phenological mismatches with their environment. However, few studies have assessed the impacts of phenological change in Antarctica. Using the largest database of phytoplankton phenology, sea-ice phenology, and Adélie Penguin breeding phenology and breeding success assembled to date, we find that, while a temporal match between Penguin breeding phenology and optimal environmental conditions sets an upper limit on breeding success, only a weak relationship to the mean exists. Despite previous work suggesting that divergent trends in Adélie Penguin breeding phenology are apparent across the Antarctic continent, we find no such trends. Furthermore, we find no trend in the magnitude of phenological mismatch, suggesting that mismatch is driven by interannual variability in environmental conditions rather than climate-change-driven trends, as observed in other systems. We propose several criteria necessary for a species to experience a strong climate-change-driven phenological mismatch, of which several may be violated by this system.
    Description: Funding to H. J. Lynch and C. Youngflesh was provided by the National Science Foundation Grant OPP/GSS 1255058, to S. Jenouvrier, H. J. Lynch, C. Youngflesh, Y. Li, and R. Ji by the National Science Foundation Grant 1341474, to S. Jenouvrier, Y. Li, and R. Ji by NASA grant NNX14AH74G, to D. G. Ainley, G. Ballard, and K. M. Dugger by the National Science Foundation Grants OPP 9526865, 9814882, 0125608, 0944411 and 0440643, to P. O’B. Lyver by New Zealand’s Ministry of Business, Innovation, and Employment Grants C09X0510 and C01X1001, and Ministry of Primary Industry grants with logistic support from Antarctica New Zealand.
    Keywords: Anna Karenina Principle ; Antarctica ; Asynchrony ; Bayesian hierarchical model ; Climate change ; Phenology ; Pygoscelis adeliae ; Quantile regression
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  • 8
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    The seeding of ice algal blooms in Arctic pack ice : the multiyear ice seed repository hypothesis (2017)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 122 (2017): 1529–1548, doi:10.1002/2016JG003668.
    Description: During the Norwegian young sea ICE expedition (N-ICE2015) from January to June 2015 the pack ice in the Arctic Ocean north of Svalbard was studied during four drifts between 83° and 80°N. This pack ice consisted of a mix of second year, first year, and young ice. The physical properties and ice algal community composition was investigated in the three different ice types during the winter-spring-summer transition. Our results indicate that algae remaining in sea ice that survived the summer melt season are subsequently trapped in the upper layers of the ice column during winter and may function as an algal seed repository. Once the connectivity in the entire ice column is established, as a result of temperature-driven increase in ice porosity during spring, algae in the upper parts of the ice are able to migrate toward the bottom and initiate the ice algal spring bloom. Furthermore, this algal repository might seed the bloom in younger ice formed in adjacent leads. This mechanism was studied in detail for the dominant ice diatom Nitzschia frigida. The proposed seeding mechanism may be compromised due to the disappearance of older ice in the anticipated regime shift toward a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean.
    Description: Norwegian Research Council Grant Number: 244646; Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment Grant Number: N-ICE; Norwegian Research Council Grant Number: 221961; Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Grant Number: ID Arctic; Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Climate and Environment, Norway; Polish-Norwegian Research Program Grant Number: Pol-Nor/197511/40/2013; Research Council of Norway project STASIS Grant Number: 221961; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Discovery Grant Canada Foundation for Innovation Investment in Science Fund; Research Council of Norway project Boom or Bust Grant Number: 244646; Centre of Ice, Climate and Ecosystems
    Keywords: Ice algae ; Arctic ; Sea ice ; N-ICE ; Multiyear ice ; Seeding
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  • 9
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    Subsea ice-bearing permafrost on the U.S. Beaufort Margin : 2. Borehole constraints (2017)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 17 (2016): 4333–4353, doi:10.1002/2016GC006582.
    Description: Borehole logging data from legacy wells directly constrain the contemporary distribution of subsea permafrost in the sedimentary section at discrete locations on the U.S. Beaufort Margin and complement recent regional analyses of exploration seismic data to delineate the permafrost's offshore extent. Most usable borehole data were acquired on a ∼500 km stretch of the margin and within 30 km of the contemporary coastline from north of Lake Teshekpuk to nearly the U.S.-Canada border. Relying primarily on deep resistivity logs that should be largely unaffected by drilling fluids and hole conditions, the analysis reveals the persistence of several hundred vertical meters of ice-bonded permafrost in nearshore wells near Prudhoe Bay and Foggy Island Bay, with less permafrost detected to the east and west. Permafrost is inferred beneath many barrier islands and in some nearshore and lagoonal (back-barrier) wells. The analysis of borehole logs confirms the offshore pattern of ice-bearing subsea permafrost distribution determined based on regional seismic analyses and reveals that ice content generally diminishes with distance from the coastline. Lacking better well distribution, it is not possible to determine the absolute seaward extent of ice-bearing permafrost, nor the distribution of permafrost beneath the present-day continental shelf at the end of the Pleistocene. However, the recovery of gas hydrate from an outer shelf well (Belcher) and previous delineation of a log signature possibly indicating gas hydrate in an inner shelf well (Hammerhead 2) imply that permafrost may once have extended across much of the shelf offshore Camden Bay.
    Description: 2017-05-04
    Keywords: Permafrost ; Arctic Ocean ; Climate change ; Borehole logging ; Gas hydrates
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  • 10
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    Interactions between land use change and carbon cycle feedbacks (2017)
    John Wiley & Sons
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 31 (2017): 96–113, doi:10.1002/2016GB005374.
    Description: Using the Community Earth System Model, we explore the role of human land use and land cover change (LULCC) in modifying the terrestrial carbon budget in simulations forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, extended to year 2300. Overall, conversion of land (e.g., from forest to croplands via deforestation) results in a model-estimated, cumulative carbon loss of 490 Pg C between 1850 and 2300, larger than the 230 Pg C loss of carbon caused by climate change over this same interval. The LULCC carbon loss is a combination of a direct loss at the time of conversion and an indirect loss from the reduction of potential terrestrial carbon sinks. Approximately 40% of the carbon loss associated with LULCC in the simulations arises from direct human modification of the land surface; the remaining 60% is an indirect consequence of the loss of potential natural carbon sinks. Because of the multicentury carbon cycle legacy of current land use decisions, a globally averaged amplification factor of 2.6 must be applied to 2015 land use carbon losses to adjust for indirect effects. This estimate is 30% higher when considering the carbon cycle evolution after 2100. Most of the terrestrial uptake of anthropogenic carbon in the model occurs from the influence of rising atmospheric CO2 on photosynthesis in trees, and thus, model-projected carbon feedbacks are especially sensitive to deforestation.
    Description: National Science Foundation Grant Numbers: AGS 1049033, CCF-1522054
    Description: 2017-07-23
    Keywords: Carbon cycle ; Climate change ; Land use and land cover change ; Earth system models
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  • 11
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    Relevance of carbon stocks of marine sediments for national greenhouse gas inventories of maritime nations (2017)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Carbon Balance and Management 12 (2017): 10, doi:10.1186/s13021-017-0077-x.
    Description: Determining national carbon stocks is essential in the framework of ongoing climate change mitigation actions. Presently, assessment of carbon stocks in the context of greenhouse gas (GHG)-reporting on a nation-by-nation basis focuses on the terrestrial realm, i.e., carbon held in living plant biomass and soils, and on potential changes in these stocks in response to anthropogenic activities. However, while the ocean and underlying sediments store substantial quantities of carbon, this pool is presently not considered in the context of national inventories. The ongoing disturbances to both terrestrial and marine ecosystems as a consequence of food production, pollution, climate change and other factors, as well as alteration of linkages and C-exchange between continental and oceanic realms, highlight the need for a better understanding of the quantity and vulnerability of carbon stocks in both systems. We present a preliminary comparison of the stocks of organic carbon held in continental margin sediments within the Exclusive Economic Zone of maritime nations with those in their soils. Our study focuses on Namibia, where there is a wealth of marine sediment data, and draws comparisons with sediment data from two other countries with different characteristics, which are Pakistan and the United Kingdom. Results indicate that marine sediment carbon stocks in maritime nations can be similar in magnitude to those of soils. Therefore, if human activities in these areas are managed, carbon stocks in the oceanic realm—particularly over continental margins—could be considered as part of national GHG inventories. This study shows that marine sediment organic carbon stocks can be equal in size or exceed terrestrial carbon stocks of maritime nations. This provides motivation both for improved assessment of sedimentary carbon inventories and for reevaluation of the way that carbon stocks are assessed and valued. The latter carries potential implications for the management of human activities on coastal environments and for their GHG inventories.
    Description: We acknowledge research support from ETH Zurich and the Swiss National Science Foundation.
    Keywords: Carbon stocks ; Sediments ; Oceans ; Climate change ; Exclusive Economic Zone ; Carbon inventory
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  • 12
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    How well does wind speed predict air-sea gas transfer in the sea ice zone? A synthesis of radon deficit profiles in the upper water column of the Arctic Ocean (2017)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 122 (2017): 3696–3714, doi:10.1002/2016JC012460.
    Description: We present 34 profiles of radon-deficit from the ice-ocean boundary layer of the Beaufort Sea. Including these 34, there are presently 58 published radon-deficit estimates of air-sea gas transfer velocity (k) in the Arctic Ocean; 52 of these estimates were derived from water covered by 10% sea ice or more. The average value of k collected since 2011 is 4.0 ± 1.2 m d−1. This exceeds the quadratic wind speed prediction of weighted kws = 2.85 m d−1 with mean-weighted wind speed of 6.4 m s−1. We show how ice cover changes the mixed-layer radon budget, and yields an “effective gas transfer velocity.” We use these 58 estimates to statistically evaluate the suitability of a wind speed parameterization for k, when the ocean surface is ice covered. Whereas the six profiles taken from the open ocean indicate a statistically good fit to wind speed parameterizations, the same parameterizations could not reproduce k from the sea ice zone. We conclude that techniques for estimating k in the open ocean cannot be similarly applied to determine k in the presence of sea ice. The magnitude of k through gaps in the ice may reach high values as ice cover increases, possibly as a result of focused turbulence dissipation at openings in the free surface. These 58 profiles are presently the most complete set of estimates of k across seasons and variable ice cover; as dissolved tracer budgets they reflect air-sea gas exchange with no impact from air-ice gas exchange.
    Description: NSF Arctic Natural Sciences program Grant Number: 1203558
    Description: 2017-11-05
    Keywords: Radon-deficit ; Air-sea gas exchange ; Sea ice ; Gas transfer velocity ; Air-sea flux ; Carbon
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  • 13
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    Vulnerability of the Bay of Bengal to Ocean Acidification. (2017)
    IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature, Bangladesh Country Office | Dhaka, Bangladesh
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-19
    Description: Fossil-fuel combustion releases carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, leading to a warmer climate. Increasing atmospheric CO2 is changing the global ocean’s chemistry, as one-fourth of the anthropogenic CO2 is absorbed by the ocean. In addition, ocean absorbs CO2 from the respiration and breakdown of dead organic matter. When CO2 dissolves in seawater, it forms carbonic acid, decreasing both ocean pH and the concentration of the carbonate ion. The historical trends analysis showed an increasing water temperature with a decreasing pH levels over the period which may lead substantial effect on the biodiversity of the Bay of Bengal. The Institute of Marine Sciences and Fisheries (IMSF) in Chittagong University have been contributed in research and data generation from the coastal and marine ecosystems of Bangladesh. In addition, Bangladesh Navy, Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority and Coast Guard have been significantly contributed in hydrographical data collection and monitoring of the shelf water of Bangladesh in the Bay of Bengal. Ocean acidification could affect marine
    Description: Published
    Keywords: Ocean acidification ; Carbon dioxide ; Climate change ; CO2
    Repository Name: AquaDocs
    Type: Report , Refereed
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  • 14
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    Global ocean vertical velocity from a dynamically consistent ocean state estimate (2017)
    John Wiley & Sons
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 122 (2017): 8208–8224, doi:10.1002/2017JC012985.
    Description: Estimates of the global ocean vertical velocities (Eulerian, eddy-induced, and residual) from a dynamically consistent and data-constrained ocean state estimate are presented and analyzed. Conventional patterns of vertical velocity, Ekman pumping, appear in the upper ocean, with topographic dominance at depth. Intense and vertically coherent upwelling and downwelling occur in the Southern Ocean, which are likely due to the interaction of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and large-scale topographic features and are generally canceled out in the conventional zonally averaged results. These “elevators” at high latitudes connect the upper to the deep and abyssal oceans and working together with isopycnal mixing are likely a mechanism, in addition to the formation of deep and abyssal waters, for fast responses of the deep and abyssal oceans to the changing climate. Also, Eulerian and parameterized eddy-induced components are of opposite signs in numerous regions around the global ocean, particularly in the ocean interior away from surface and bottom. Nevertheless, residual vertical velocity is primarily determined by the Eulerian component, and related to winds and large-scale topographic features. The current estimates of vertical velocities can serve as a useful reference for investigating the vertical exchange of ocean properties and tracers, and its complex spatial structure ultimately permits regional tests of basic oceanographic concepts such as Sverdrup balance and coastal upwelling/downwelling.
    Description: National Science Foundation Grant Numbers: OCE-1736633 , OCE-1534618 , OCE-0961713; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Grant Number: NA10OAR4310135
    Description: 2018-04-27
    Keywords: Vertical velocity ; Vertical transport ; Vertical exchange ; Ocean state estimate ; Climate change ; Southern Ocean
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 15
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    Changes in snow distribution and surface topography following a snowstorm on Antarctic sea ice (2017)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 121 (2016): 2172–2191, doi:10.1002/2016JF003893.
    Description: Snow distribution over sea ice is an important control on sea ice physical and biological processes. We combine measurements of the atmospheric boundary layer and blowing snow on an Antarctic sea ice floe with terrestrial laser scanning to characterize a typical storm and its influence on the spatial patterns of snow distribution at resolutions of 1–10 cm over an area of 100 m × 100 m. The pre-storm surface exhibits multidirectional elongated snow dunes formed behind aerodynamic obstacles. Newly deposited dunes are elongated parallel to the predominant wind direction during the storm. Snow erosion and deposition occur over 62% and 38% of the area, respectively. Snow deposition volume is more than twice that of erosion (351 m3 versus 158 m3), resulting in a modest increase of 2 ± 1 cm in mean snow depth, indicating a small net mass gain despite large mass relocation. Despite significant local snow depth changes due to deposition and erosion, the statistical distributions of elevation and the two-dimensional correlation functions remain similar to those of the pre-storm surface. Pre-storm and post-storm surfaces also exhibit spectral power law relationships with little change in spectral exponents. These observations suggest that for sea ice floes with mature snow cover features under conditions similar to those observed in this study, spatial statistics and scaling properties of snow surface morphology may be relatively invariant. Such an observation, if confirmed for other ice types and conditions, may be a useful tool for model parameterizations of the subgrid variability of sea ice surfaces.
    Description: AAD Science Grant Number: 4073; NSF Grant Numbers: OPP-1142075, EAR-0735156; NASA Grant Number: NNX15AC69G; Swiss National Science Foundation
    Description: 2017-05-15
    Keywords: Lidar ; Sea ice ; Snow ; Snow distribution ; Blowing snow
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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    Ecosystem responses to climate change at a Low Arctic and a High Arctic long-term research site (2017)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ambio 46, Supple. 1 (2017): 160-173, doi:10.1007/s13280-016-0870-x.
    Description: Long-term measurements of ecological effects of warming are often not statistically significant because of annual variability or signal noise. These are reduced in indicators that filter or reduce the noise around the signal and allow effects of climate warming to emerge. In this way, certain indicators act as medium pass filters integrating the signal over years-to-decades. In the Alaskan Arctic, the 25-year record of warming of air temperature revealed no significant trend, yet environmental and ecological changes prove that warming is affecting the ecosystem. The useful indicators are deep permafrost temperatures, vegetation and shrub biomass, satellite measures of canopy reflectance (NDVI), and chemical measures of soil weathering. In contrast, the 18-year record in the Greenland Arctic revealed an extremely high summer air-warming of 1.3°C/decade; the cover of some plant species increased while the cover of others decreased. Useful indicators of change are NDVI and the active layer thickness.
    Description: The Toolik research was supported in part by NSF Grants DEB 0207150, DEB 1026843, ARC 1107701, and ARC 1504006.
    Keywords: Alaska Toolik ; Climate change ; Ecological effects ; Greenland Zackenberg ; Medium pass filter ; Vegetation
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  • 17
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    Spring plankton dynamics in the Eastern Bering Sea, 1971–2050 : mechanisms of interannual variability diagnosed with a numerical model (2016)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 121 (2016): 1476–1501, doi:10.1002/2015JC011449.
    Description: A new planktonic ecosystem model was constructed for the Eastern Bering Sea based on observations from the 2007–2010 BEST/BSIERP (Bering Ecosystem Study/Bering Sea Integrated Ecosystem Research Program) field program. When run with forcing from a data-assimilative ice-ocean hindcast of 1971–2012, the model performs well against observations of spring bloom time evolution (phytoplankton and microzooplankton biomass, growth and grazing rates, and ratios among new, regenerated, and export production). On the southern middle shelf (57°N, station M2), the model replicates the generally inverse relationship between ice-retreat timing and spring bloom timing known from observations, and the simpler direct relationship between the two that has been observed on the northern middle shelf (62°N, station M8). The relationship between simulated mean primary production and mean temperature in spring (15 February to 15 July) is generally positive, although this was found to be an indirect relationship which does not continue to apply across a future projection of temperature and ice cover in the 2040s. At M2, the leading direct controls on total spring primary production are found to be advective and turbulent nutrient supply, suggesting that mesoscale, wind-driven processes—advective transport and storminess—may be crucial to long-term trends in spring primary production in the southeastern Bering Sea, with temperature and ice cover playing only indirect roles. Sensitivity experiments suggest that direct dependence of planktonic growth and metabolic rates on temperature is less significant overall than the other drivers correlated with temperature described above.
    Description: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation through grants ARC-1107187, ARC-1107303, and ARC-1107588, for BEST Synthesis, and PLR-1417365.
    Description: 2016-08-20
    Keywords: Phytoplankton bloom ; Climate change ; Bering Sea ; Microzooplankton ; Ecosystem model ; Phenology
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    Ecosystem model intercomparison of under-ice and total primary production in the Arctic Ocean (2016)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 121 (2016); 934–948, doi:10.1002/2015JC011183.
    Description: Previous observational studies have found increasing primary production (PP) in response to declining sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean. In this study, under-ice PP was assessed based on three coupled ice-ocean-ecosystem models participating in the Forum for Arctic Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS) project. All models showed good agreement with under-ice measurements of surface chlorophyll-a concentration and vertically integrated PP rates during the main under-ice production period, from mid-May to September. Further, modeled 30-year (1980–2009) mean values and spatial patterns of sea ice concentration compared well with remote sensing data. Under-ice PP was higher in the Arctic shelf seas than in the Arctic Basin, but ratios of under-ice PP over total PP were spatially correlated with annual mean sea ice concentration, with higher ratios in higher ice concentration regions. Decreases in sea ice from 1980 to 2009 were correlated significantly with increases in total PP and decreases in the under-ice PP/total PP ratio for most of the Arctic, but nonsignificantly related to under-ice PP, especially in marginal ice zones. Total PP within the Arctic Circle increased at an annual rate of between 3.2 and 8.0 Tg C/yr from 1980 to 2009. This increase in total PP was due mainly to a PP increase in open water, including increases in both open water area and PP rate per unit area, and therefore much stronger than the changes in under-ice PP. All models suggested that, on a pan-Arctic scale, the fraction of under-ice PP declined with declining sea ice cover over the last three decades.
    Description: NASA Grant Number: NNX13AE81G; the NSF Office of Polar Programs Grant Number: (ARC-0968676, PLR-1417925, PLR-1417677 and PLR-1416920); the NASA Cryosphere Grant Number: (NNX12AB31G); Climate and Biological Response Grant Number: (NNX11AO91G)
    Description: 2016-07-27
    Keywords: Ecosystem modeling ; Sea ice ; Under-ice production ; Phenology ; Primary production ; Arctic Ocean
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  • 19
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    Early ice retreat and ocean warming may induce copepod biogeographic boundary shifts in the Arctic Ocean (2016)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 121 (2016): 6137-6158, doi:10.1002/2016JC011784.
    Description: Early ice retreat and ocean warming are changing various facets of the Arctic marine ecosystem, including the biogeographic distribution of marine organisms. Here an endemic copepod species, Calanus glacialis, was used as a model organism, to understand how and why Arctic marine environmental changes may induce biogeographic boundary shifts. A copepod individual-based model was coupled to an ice-ocean-ecosystem model to simulate temperature- and food-dependent copepod life history development. Numerical experiments were conducted for two contrasting years: a relatively cold and normal sea ice year (2001) and a well-known warm year with early ice retreat (2007). Model results agreed with commonly known biogeographic distributions of C. glacialis, which is a shelf/slope species and cannot colonize the vast majority of the central Arctic basins. Individuals along the northern boundaries of this species' distribution were most susceptible to reproduction timing and early food availability (released sea ice algae). In the Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian, and Laptev Seas where severe ocean warming and loss of sea ice occurred in summer 2007, relatively early ice retreat, elevated ocean temperature (about 1–2°C higher than 2001), increased phytoplankton food, and prolonged growth season created favorable conditions for C. glacialis development and caused a remarkable poleward expansion of its distribution. From a pan-Arctic perspective, despite the great heterogeneity in the temperature and food regimes, common biogeographic zones were identified from model simulations, thus allowing a better characterization of habitats and prediction of potential future biogeographic boundary shifts.
    Description: National Science Foundation Polar Programs Grant Number: (PLR-1417677, PLR-1417339, and PLR-1416920)
    Description: 2017-02-20
    Keywords: Arctic Ocean ; Marine ecosystem ; Climate change ; Biogeography ; Individual-based model ; C. glacialis
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  • 20
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    Trend and interannual variability in southeast Greenland Sea Ice : impacts on coastal Greenland climate variability (2015)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 41 (2014): 8619–8626, doi:10.1002/2014GL062107.
    Description: We describe the recent occurrence of a region of diminished sea ice cover or “notch” offshore of the Kangerdlugssuaq Fiord, the site of the largest tidewater glacier along Greenland's southeast coast. The notch's location is consistent with a topographically forced flux of warm water toward the fiord, and the decrease of the sea ice cover is shown to be associated with a regional warming of the upper ocean that began in the mid-1990s. Sea ice in the vicinity of the notch also exhibits interannual variability that is shown to be associated with a seesaw in surface temperature and sea ice between southeast and northeast Greenland that is not describable solely in terms of the North Atlantic Oscillation. We therefore argue that other modes of atmospheric variability, including the Lofoten Low, are required to fully document the changes to the climate that are occurring along Greenland's east coast.
    Description: G.W.K.M. was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. F.S. and M.O. were supported by NSF OCE 1130008 and NASA NNX13AK88G.
    Description: 2015-06-02
    Keywords: Greenland ; Sea ice ; Interannual variability ; Lofoten Low ; Icelandic Low
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    Inorganic carbon system dynamics in landfast Arctic sea ice during the early-melt period (2015)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 120 (2015): 3542-3566, doi:10.1002/2014JC010620.
    Description: We present the results of a 6 week time series of carbonate system and stable isotope measurements investigating the effects of sea ice on air-sea CO2 exchange during the early melt period in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Our observations revealed significant changes in sea ice and sackhole brine carbonate system parameters that were associated with increasing temperatures and the buildup of chlorophyll a in bottom ice. The warming sea-ice column could be separated into distinct geochemical zones where biotic and abiotic processes exerted different influences on inorganic carbon and pCO2 distributions. In the bottom ice, biological carbon uptake maintained undersaturated pCO2 conditions throughout the time series, while pCO2 was supersaturated in the upper ice. Low CO2 permeability of the sea ice matrix and snow cover effectively impeded CO2 efflux to the atmosphere, despite a strong pCO2 gradient. Throughout the middle of the ice column, brine pCO2 decreased significantly with time and was tightly controlled by solubility, as sea ice temperature and in situ melt dilution increased. Once the influence of melt dilution was accounted for, both CaCO3 dissolution and seawater mixing were found to contribute alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon to brines, with the CaCO3 contribution driving brine pCO2 to values lower than predicted from melt-water dilution alone. This field study reveals a dynamic carbon system within the rapidly warming sea ice, prior to snow melt. We suggest that the early spring period drives the ice column toward pCO2 undersaturation, contributing to a weak atmospheric CO2 sink as the melt period advances.
    Description: We acknowledge support from the Polar Continental Shelf Program (PCSP) of Natural Resources Canada, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the Northern Scientific Training Program, Canada Economic Development, and Fisheries and Oceans Canada.
    Description: 2015-11-19
    Keywords: Sea ice ; Carbon cycling ; CO2 ; Brines ; Stable isotopes ; Arctic Ocean
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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    Climate forcing of unprecedented intense-hurricane activity in the last 2000 years (2015)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2015. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Earth's Future 3 (2015): 49–65, doi:10.1002/2014EF000274.
    Description: How climate controls hurricane variability has critical implications for society is not well understood. In part, our understanding is hampered by the short and incomplete observational hurricane record. Here we present a synthesis of intense-hurricane activity from the western North Atlantic over the past two millennia, which is supported by a new, exceptionally well-resolved record from Salt Pond, Massachusetts (USA). At Salt Pond, three coarse grained event beds deposited in the historical interval are consistent with severe hurricanes in 1991 (Bob), 1675, and 1635 C.E., and provide modern analogs for 32 other prehistoric event beds. Two intervals of heightened frequency of event bed deposition between 1400 and 1675 C.E. (10 events) and 150 and 1150 C.E. (23 events), represent the local expression of coherent regional patterns in intense-hurricane–induced event beds. Our synthesis indicates that much of the western North Atlantic appears to have been active between 250 and 1150 C.E., with high levels of activity persisting in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico until 1400 C.E. This interval was one with relatively warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the main development region (MDR). A shift in activity to the North American east coast occurred ca. 1400 C.E., with more frequent severe hurricane strikes recorded from The Bahamas to New England between 1400 and 1675 C.E. A warm SST anomaly along the western North Atlantic, rather than within the MDR, likely contributed to the later active interval being restricted to the east coast.
    Description: Funding was provided by US National Science Foundation (awards 0903020 and 1356708), the Risk Prediction Initiative at the Bermuda Institute for Ocean Sciences (BIOS), US Department of Energy National Institute for Climate Change Research, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (award NA11OAR431010), and the Dalio Explore Fund.
    Keywords: Tropical cyclones ; Climate change ; Holocene ; Common era ; Sea surface temperature
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    The role of atmospheric forcing versus ocean advection during the extreme warming of the Northeast U.S. continental shelf in 2012 (2015)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 120 (2015): 4324–4339, doi:10.1002/2014JC010547.
    Description: In the coastal ocean off the Northeast U.S., the sea surface temperature (SST) in the first half of 2012 was the highest on the record for the past roughly 150 years of recorded observations. The underlying dynamical processes responsible for this extreme event are examined using a numerical model, and the relative contributions of air-sea heat flux versus lateral ocean advective heat flux are quantified. The model accurately reproduces the observed vertical structure and the spatiotemporal characteristics of the thermohaline condition of the Gulf of Maine and the Middle Atlantic Bight waters during the anomalous warming period. Analysis of the model results show that the warming event was primarily driven by the anomalous air-sea heat flux, while the smaller contribution by the ocean advection worked against this flux by acting to cool the shelf. The anomalous air-sea heat flux exhibited a shelf-wide coherence, consistent with the shelf-wide warming pattern, while the ocean advective heat flux was dominated by localized, relatively smaller-scale processes. The anomalous cooling due to advection primarily resulted from the along-shelf heat flux divergence in the Gulf of Maine, while in the Middle Atlantic Bight the advective contribution from the along-shelf and cross-shelf heat flux divergences was comparable. The modeling results confirm the conclusion of the recent analysis of in situ data by Chen et al. (2014a) that the changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the winter of 2011–2012 primarily caused the extreme warm anomaly in the spring of 2012. The effect of along-shelf or cross-shelf ocean advection on the warm anomalies from either the Scotian Shelf or adjacent continental slope was secondary.
    Description: K.C. was supported by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Postdoctoral Scholar program, the Coastal Ocean Institute, and the National Science Foundation (NSF) under grant OCE-1435602. G.G.G. was supported by NSF grants OCE-1435602 and OCE-1129125. Y.-O.K. was supported by the NSF grant OCE-1435602. W.G.Z. was supported by the NSF grant OCE-1129125.
    Description: 2015-12-15
    Keywords: Extreme temperature ; Heat budget ; Northeast U.S. coastal ocean ; Numerical modeling ; Air-sea interaction ; Climate change
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  • 24
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    Climate modulates internal wave activity in the Northern South China Sea (2015)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 42 (2015): 831–838, doi:10.1002/2014GL062522.
    Description: Internal waves (IWs) generated in the Luzon Strait propagate into the Northern South China Sea (NSCS), enhancing biological productivity and affecting coral reefs by modulating nutrient concentrations and temperature. Here we use a state-of-the-art ocean data assimilation system to reconstruct water column stratification in the Luzon Strait as a proxy for IW activity in the NSCS and diagnose mechanisms for its variability. Interannual variability of stratification is driven by intrusions of the Kuroshio Current into the Luzon Strait and freshwater fluxes associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Warming in the upper 100 m of the ocean caused a trend of increasing IW activity since 1900, consistent with global climate model experiments that show stratification in the Luzon Strait increases in response to radiative forcing. IW activity is expected to increase in the NSCS through the 21st century, with implications for mitigating climate change impacts on coastal ecosystems.
    Description: This work was supported by NSF award 1220529 to Anne Cohen, by the Academia Sinica (Taiwan) through a thematic project grant to G.T.F.W. and Anne Cohen, by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and the WHOI Oceans and Climate Change Institute/Moltz Fellowship through awards to K.B.K., and by an NSF Graduate Research Fellowship to T.M.D.
    Description: 2015-08-10
    Keywords: Internal waves ; Climate change ; Coral reefs
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