ALBERT

Description: Comprehensive hydrogeochemical studies have been conducted in the Campi Flegrei volcanic aquifer since late 20th century due to the volcanic unrest. In the last decade, groundwater samples were grouped based on the dominant anion species (i.e. bicarbonate, sulfate and chloride) to explain the general hydrogeochemical processes. In this article, 44 groundwater samples are collected from Campi Flegrei aquifer to geochemically and spatially capture the main characteristics of the groundwater body. The hierarchical clustering algorithm is then performed on proportion of bicarbonate, sulfate and chloride, and the optimum number of clusters are determined regarding the results of deep hydrogeochemical investigations published in the past. The collected samples are categorized in the following groups: (1) bicarbonate-rich groundwater; (2) chlorine-rich groundwater; (3) sulfate-rich groundwater; and (4) mixed groundwater. The first group (As = 158.2 ± 169 μg/l, electric conductivity = 1,732.1 ± 1,086 μS/cm and temperature = 25.6 ± 8 ◦C) is mainly derived from poor arsenic meteoric water, but there is significant thermal/seawater contribution in the second one (As = 1,457.8 ± 2,210 μg/l, electric conductivity = 20,118.3 ± 11,139 μS/cm and temperature = 37.1 ± 20 ◦C). Interaction of the bicarbonate-rich groundwater and hydrothermal vapors gives rise to the sulfate-rich groundwater (As = 847.2 ± 679 μg/l, electric conductivity = 3,940.0 ± 540 μS/cm and temperature = 82.8 ± 3 ◦C) around Solfatara volcano. The mixed groundwater (As = 451.4 ± 388 μg/l, electric conductivity = 4,482.9 ± 4,027 μS/cm and temperature = 37.1 ± 16 ◦C) is observed where the three main groundwater groups undergo a mixing process, depending on the hydrogeology of the volcanic aquifer. Contrary to the bicarbonate- and sulfate-rich groundwater, the chlorine-rich and mixed groundwater generally occurs at low piezometric levels (approximately 〈1 m above sea level) near the coastline. The hierarchical cluster analysis provides more information about the volcanic aquifer, particularly when compositional data analysis is applied to study hydrogeochemistry of the homogeneous groundwater groups and to uncover the relationships between variables. Addressing compositional nature of data is recommended in the future studies for developing new tools that help deeper understanding of groundwater evolution in volcanic aquifers and identifying promising precursors of volcanic eruption.

Description: Published

Description: 106922

Description: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi

Description: 2IT. Laboratori analitici e sperimentali

Description: JCR Journal

Description: The interaction between fluids and tectonic structures such as fault systems is a muchdiscussed issue. Many scientific works are aimed at understanding what the role of fault systems in the displacement of deep fluids is, by investigating the interaction between the upper mantle, the lower crustal portion and the upraising of gasses carried by liquids. Many other scientific works try to explore the interaction between the recharge processes, i.e., precipitation, and the fault zones, aiming to recognize the function of the abovementioned structures and their capability to direct groundwater flow towards preferential drainage areas. Understanding the role of faults in the recharge processes of punctual and linear springs, meant as gaining streams, is a key point in hydrogeology, as it is known that faults can act either as flow barriers or as preferential flow paths. In this work an investigation of a fault system located in the Nera River catchment (Italy), based on geo-structural investigations, tracer tests, geochemical and isotopic recharge modelling, allows to identify the role of the normal fault system before and after the 2016–2017 central Italy seismic sequence (Mmax = 6.5). The outcome was achieved by an integrated approach consisting of a structural geology field work, combined with GIS-based analysis, and of a hydrogeological investigation based on artificial tracer tests and geochemical and isotopic analyses.

Description: Published

Description: 1499

Description: 2IT. Laboratori analitici e sperimentali

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Archaeological sites are extremely vulnerable to the impacts of weather-related events, which may lead to irreparable damages to cultural heritage. Here an assessment of the debris-flow hazard for the UNESCO site of Roman Villa del Casale (Italy) is carried out, through a combination of historical analyses, field surveys, geomorphological and hydrological investigations and two-dimensional hydraulic numerical modelling, all performed at river catchment scale. Historical analyses reveal that the site has been hit by several landslides in the far and recent past. This is presently confirmed by the high level of exposure to the impact of rain-triggered debris-flow events, due to the position of the Villa at a closure section of the related river basin and to the hydro- geomorphological characteristics of the basin itself. By applying the proposed approach, a scenario analysis is carried out. Results allow one to highlight the dynamics of the impact of debris flows, thanks to space and time- dependent maps about deposition areas, water depth and speed values, and to identify the most vulnerable archaeological elements within the study site. The numerical simulations are also used to test the efficiency of the existing hydraulic defense systems and to support the implementation of an early warning system for the site protection. Here, we also synthetize the design of the architecture of the wireless monitoring network, the sensor technology adopted to develop an effective real time environmental monitoring system and management plat-form, to construct a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) - early warning and reporting system, which can be applied as a prevention measure.

Description: Published

Description: 102509

Description: 7A. Geofisica per il monitoraggio ambientale

Description: JCR Journal

Description: This work presents the first 3D geological model of the Rome coastal area that integrates available subsurface geological, stratigraphic and geophysical data with surface geochemical data obtained both from the literature and new surveys. The model provides new insights into the stratigraphic and tectonic setting of the area and the geological factors controlling both natural and human-induced gas emissions. This sector of the Italian Tyrrhenian margin has been historically affected by natural emissions of deep CO2 and thermogenic CH4, stored in permeable layers but with local migration to the surface along buried normal faults. In addition to natural processes, human activities can also cause leakage and serious health risks, such as the abrupt gas release in August 2013, that was triggered by borehole drillings near the Rome international airport. The presented 3D reconstruction unveils the link between faults, stratigraphy, lithology and the distribution of the soil gas anomalies. It provides information about the depth of the reservoir that can potentially trap endogenous gases, and the location and geometry of the main faults along which the gas migrates towards the surface. Furthermore, reconstruction of the distribution and thickness of important clay layers better constrains the low permeable areas that prevent gas escape. The 3D model, coupled with the geochemical information, can serve as a useful tool for the local administration to perform land-use planning and manage the local geological and degassing hazards that affect this highly urbanized area near Rome. Furthermore, we estimate that the large amount of CO2 broadly released in the area also provides a contribution to the budget of natural greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Description: Published

Description: 106527

Description: 6A. Geochimica per l'ambiente e geologia medica

Description: JCR Journal

Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Pold, G., Kwiatkowski, B. L., Rastetter, E. B., & Sistla, S. A. Sporadic P limitation constrains microbial growth and facilitates SOM accumulation in the stoichiometrically coupled, acclimating microbe-plant-soil model. Soil Biology & Biochemistry, 165, (2022): 108489, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soilbio.2021.108489.

Description: Requirements for biomass carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) constrain organism growth and are important agents for structuring ecosystems. Arctic tundra habitats are strongly nutrient limited as decomposition and recycling of nutrients are slowed by low temperature. Modeling interactions among these elemental cycles affords an opportunity to explore how disturbances such as climate change might differentially affect these nutrient cycles. Here we introduce a C–N–P-coupled version of the Stoichiometrically Coupled Acclimating Microbe-Plant-Soil (SCAMPS) model, “SCAMPS-CNP”, and a corresponding modified CN-only model, “SCAMPS-CN”. We compared how SCAMPS-CNP and the modified SCAMPS-CN models project a moderate (RCP 6.0) air warming scenario will impact tussock tundra nutrient availability and ecosystem C stocks. SCAMPS-CNP was characterized by larger SOM and smaller organism C stocks compared to SCAMPS-CN, and a greater reduction in ecosystem C stocks under warming. This difference can largely be attributed to a smaller microbial biomass in the CNP model, which, instead of being driven by direct costs of P acquisition, was driven by variable resource limitation due to asynchronous C, N, and P availability and demand. Warming facilitated a greater relative increase in plant and microbial biomass in SCAMPS-CNP, however, facilitated by increased extracellular enzyme pools and activity, which more than offset the metabolic costs associated with their production. Although the microbial community was able to flexibly adapt its stoichiometry and become more bacteria-like (N-rich) in both models, its stoichiometry deviated further from its target value in the CNP model because of the need to balance cellular NP ratio. Our results indicate that seasonality and asynchrony in resources affect predicted changes in ecosystem C storage under warming in these models, and therefore build on a growing body of literature indicating stoichiometry should be considered in carbon cycling projections.

Description: This work was funded by the National Science Foundation Signals in the Soil grant number 1841610 to SAS and EBR.

Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Burnham, K. A., Nowicki, R. J., Hall, E. R., Pi, J., & Page, H. N. Effects of ocean acidification on the performance and interaction of fleshy macroalgae and a grazing sea urchin. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology, 547, (2022): 151662, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jembe.2021.151662.

Description: When predicting the response of marine ecosystems to climate change, it is increasingly recognized that understanding the indirect effects of ocean acidification on trophic interactions is as important as studying direct effects on organism physiology. Furthermore, comprehensive studies that examine these effects simultaneously are needed to identify and link the underlying mechanisms driving changes in species interactions. Using an onshore ocean acidification simulator system, we investigated the direct and indirect effects of elevated seawater pCO2 on the physiology and trophic interaction of fleshy macroalgae and the grazing sea urchin Lytechinus variegatus. Macroalgal (Dictyota spp.) biomass increased despite decreased photosynthetic rates after two-week exposure to elevated pCO2. Algal tissue carbon content remained constant, suggesting the use of alternative carbon acquisition pathways beneficial to growth under acidification. Higher C:N ratios driven by a slight reduction in N content in algae exposed to elevated pCO2 suggest a decrease in nutritional content under acidification. Urchin (L. variegatus) respiration, biomass, and righting time did not change significantly after six-week exposure to elevated pCO2, indicating that physiological stress and changes in metabolism are not mechanisms through which the trophic interaction was impacted. Correspondingly, urchin consumption rates of untreated macroalgae (Caulerpa racemosa) were not significantly affected by pCO2. In contrast, exposure of urchins to elevated pCO2 significantly reduced the number of correct foraging choices for ambient macroalgae (Dictyota spp.), indicating impairment of urchin chemical sensing under acidification. However, exposure of algae to elevated pCO2 returned the number of correct foraging choices in similarly exposed urchins to ambient levels, suggesting alongside higher C:N ratios that algal nutritional content was altered in a way detectable by the urchins under acidification. These results highlight the importance of studying the indirect effects of acidification on trophic interactions simultaneously with direct effects on physiology. Together, these results suggest that changes to urchin chemical sensing and algal nutritional quality are the driving mechanisms behind surprisingly unaltered urchin foraging behavior for fleshy macroalgae under joint exposure to ocean acidification. Consistent foraging behavior and consumption rates suggest that the trophic interaction between L. variegatus and fleshy macroalgae may be sustained under future acidification. However, increases in fleshy macroalgal biomass driven by opportunistic carbon acquisition strategies have the potential to cause ecological change, depending on how grazer populations respond. Additional field research is needed to determine the outcome of these results over time and under a wider range of environmental conditions.

Description: This work was supported by Mote Marine Laboratory Postdoctoral Fellowships (RJN and HNP), Becker Internship Funding, and philanthropic funds to ERH.

Description: Carbon captured and stored in sediments and soils from vegetated tidal wetlands (mangroves, saltmarshes, freshwater and brackish marshes), where the rates of organic carbon accumulation (OC) from multiple sources is high, constitutes an active fraction of the global carbon sink (Wang et al., 2021). However, a global inventory of this coastal ‘blue carbon’ remains a challenge, as observations of accumulation rates and stock in vegetated tidal wetlands are labor intensive, expensive, scarce, and unevenly distributed, with few sediment records even for relatively well-studied temperate areas in the Northern Hemisphere (Beaumont et al., 2014). Recent reviews (Duarte et al., 2005, Wilkinson et al., 2018) report a mean carbon accumulation rate of 151 g C m yr for saltmarshes (maximum 1720 g C m yr), 41.4 g C m yr for lagoons (maximum 340 g C m yr), and 62.9 g C m yr for coastal wetlands (maximum 335.8 g C m yr) exceeding the mean burial rate of estuaries and continental shelves (17–45 g C m yr ). The accumulation of ‘blue carbon’ stored in soil and sediments within tidal wetlands, is sensitive to rapidly changing climate factors (e.g. temperature, rainfall, sea level rise, and inundation frequency), and non-climatic anthropogenic drivers (e.g. subsidence from groundwater extraction, reduction of sediment supply due to river damming, and land use change) (Pendleton et al., 2012, Macreadie et al., 2013, Arriola, 2017, Kelleway et al., 2017, Simpson et al., 2017, Ewers Lewis et al., 2018, Ruiz-Fernández et al., 2018, Cuellar-martinez et al., 2019, Macreadie and Saintilan, 2019, Negandhi et al., 2019, Rogers et al., 2019). Fast rates of relative sea level rise (RSLR) and low sediment supply are the main drivers of vertical drowning in tidal wetlands (Mariotti and Carr, 2014, Fagherazzi et al., 2020). A global review suggests that between 60 and 91% of saltmarshes will be drawing under the IPPC predicted rates of sea-level rise (Crosby et al., 2016). Carbon stable isotopic composition ( C) and C/N analysis have been used as tracers to distinguish between OC derived from autochthonous C3 and C4 saltmarsh vascular vegetation (i.e. coastal blue carbon; C 12‰ to −30‰, C/N 5.80 to 41.10; Khan et al., 2015b), and allochthonous sources including fluvial and marine particulate organic matter (POM) derived from freshwater or marine phytoplankton (C 12‰ to −30‰, C/N 5 to 9; Lamb et al., 2006), as well as past sea level indicators in coastal vegetated​ habitats in North West Europe (Wilson, 2017). Data on the spatial and historical changes of OC sources and accumulation coupled with long-term time series of climatic factors are limited for vegetated tidal wetlands in the Mediterranean, which make it hard to assess the response of OC accumulation to relative sea-level rise (RSLR) in this region. Sea level observations from satellite altimetry showed an increase in absolute sea level of 2.6 ± 0.28 mm yr across the Mediterranean Sea during the period 1993–2015, and low-lying coastal areas will be prone to marine flooding according to projections for the 21st century (Moatti and Thiébault, 2016). To better understand the spatial and temporal changes in OC accumulation and sources and assess the influence of SST and RSLR, we measured the stable isotopic composition ( C) and accretion rates in sediment records, applied the MixSIAR model to estimate the OC sources, and analyzed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Sea Level (SL) climatic data sets in two different tidal wetland habitats: (i) an impacted habitat affected by strong landscape and anthropogenic alterations, and (ii) an undegraded saltmarsh habitat, within a coastal lagoon (Pialassa Baiona) located in the northwestern Adriatic Sea (Mediterranean Sea).

Description: Published

Description: 102439

Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima

Description: JCR Journal

Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Clark, S., Hubbard, K., Ralston, D., McGillicuddy, D., Stock, C., Alexander, M., & Curchitser, E. Projected effects of climate change on Pseudo-nitzschia bloom dynamics in the Gulf of Maine. Journal of Marine Systems, 230, (2022): 103737, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2022.103737.

Description: Worldwide, warming ocean temperatures have contributed to extreme harmful algal bloom events and shifts in phytoplankton species composition. In 2016 in the Gulf of Maine (GOM), an unprecedented Pseudo-nitzschia bloom led to the first domoic-acid induced shellfishery closures in the region. Potential links between climate change, warming temperatures, and the GOM Pseudo-nitzschia assemblage, however, remain unexplored. In this study, a global climate change projection previously downscaled to 7-km resolution for the Northwest Atlantic was further refined with a 1–3-km resolution simulation of the GOM to investigate the effects of climate change on HAB dynamics. A 25-year time slice of projected conditions at the end of the 21st century (2073–2097) was compared to a 25-year hindcast of contemporary ocean conditions (1994–2018) and analyzed for changes to GOM inflows, transport, and Pseudo-nitzschia australis growth potential. On average, climate change is predicted to lead to increased temperatures, decreased salinity, and increased stratification in the GOM, with the largest changes occurring in the late summer. Inflows from the Scotian Shelf are projected to increase, and alongshore transport in the Eastern Maine Coastal Current is projected to intensify. Increasing ocean temperatures will likely make P. australis growth conditions less favorable in the southern and western GOM but improve P. australis growth conditions in the eastern GOM, including a later growing season in the fall, and a longer growing season in the spring. Combined, these changes suggest that P. australis blooms in the eastern GOM could intensify in the 21st century, and that the overall Pseudo-nitzschia species assemblage might shift to warmer-adapted species such as P. plurisecta or other Pseudo-nitzschia species that may be introduced.

Description: This research was funded by the National Science Foundation (Grant Number OCE-1840381), the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (Grant Number 1P01ES028938), the Woods Hole Center for Oceans and Human Health, and the Academic Programs Office of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Pirotta, E., Thomas, L., Costa, D., Hall, A., Harris, C., Harwood, J., Kraus, S., Miller, P., Moore, M., Photopoulou, T., Rolland, R., Schwacke, L., Simmons, S., Southall, B., & Tyack, P. Understanding the combined effects of multiple stressors: a new perspective on a longstanding challenge. Science of The Total Environment, 821, (2022): 153322, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153322.

Description: Wildlife populations and their habitats are exposed to an expanding diversity and intensity of stressors caused by human activities, within the broader context of natural processes and increasing pressure from climate change. Estimating how these multiple stressors affect individuals, populations, and ecosystems is thus of growing importance. However, their combined effects often cannot be predicted reliably from the individual effects of each stressor, and we lack the mechanistic understanding and analytical tools to predict their joint outcomes. We review the science of multiple stressors and present a conceptual framework that captures and reconciles the variety of existing approaches for assessing combined effects. Specifically, we show that all approaches lie along a spectrum, reflecting increasing assumptions about the mechanisms that regulate the action of single stressors and their combined effects. An emphasis on mechanisms improves analytical precision and predictive power but could introduce bias if the underlying assumptions are incorrect. A purely empirical approach has less risk of bias but requires adequate data on the effects of the full range of anticipated combinations of stressor types and magnitudes. We illustrate how this spectrum can be formalised into specific analytical methods, using an example of North Atlantic right whales feeding on limited prey resources while simultaneously being affected by entanglement in fishing gear. In practice, case-specific management needs and data availability will guide the exploration of the stressor combinations of interest and the selection of a suitable trade-off between precision and bias. We argue that the primary goal for adaptive management should be to identify the most practical and effective ways to remove or reduce specific combinations of stressors, bringing the risk of adverse impacts on populations and ecosystems below acceptable thresholds.

Description: This work was supported by the Office of Naval Research [grant numbers N000142012697, N000142112096]; and the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program [grant numbers RC20-1097, RC20-7188, RC21-3091].

Description: Here we discussed the results of the first geochemical investigation of the fluids (groundwater and the associated gases) emerging in the southwest of Yazd Province. We carried out two surveys, one in July 2019 and the second in September 2019s, in the region of the Gariz aquifer (central Iran).Wefocused our attention to 1) the chemistry of thewater (major and minor constituents coupled to the stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen), 2) the chemical composition of dissolved gases in water together with 3) the isotopic composition of Helium (3He/4He) and 4) the dissolved carbon in water (δ13CTDIC). Hydrogen and oxygen isotope values of groundwater display a fairly narrow range and indicate that the waters are of meteoric origin. On the base of the major ions chemistry, the bulk of the water samples are classified as Ca-HCO3, Ca\\Cl and Na\\Cl types. The groundwater chemistry is mainly influenced by the interaction with CO2-rich fluids, leakage of chlorinated saline water into the alluvial aquifer, and silicate dissolution. High dissolved carbon contents, mainly as bicarbonate ion, reflect the noticeable interaction of the groundwater with CO2-rich fluids. CO2 is the dominant gaseous component in most samples and its amount is always greater with respect to a water in equilibrium with the atmosphere (Air Saturated Water, ASW). Such excess of CO2 contents (more than 730 cc/l STP) dissolved in groundwater also supports the presence of a deep source of CO2-rich gas. The computed δ13C(CO2) in equilibriumwith the groundwater highlight a mixing in different proportion between an inorganic deep sourced CO2 (13C-enriched) and organic CO2 (13C-depleted). We also used the helium isotopes as a tools to figure out the origin of helium in the aquifer (air vs. mantle, and crust). The collected samples show a contribution of mantle-derived He in the Gariz aquifer up to (~45%) and the crust suggesting that at regional scale the tectonic discontinuities had a connectionwith the mantle or magmatic intrusions migrated through the crust transporting mantle volatiles to shallowcrustal layers. However, we cannot infer the timing of this possible magmatism at depth in the complex tectonic evolution of the area.

Description: Ministry of Science, Research and Technology of Iran

Description: Published

Description: 107324

Description: 1TR. Georisorse

Description: JCR Journal

Description: The needs of society and the emerging blue economy require access and integration of data and information for the construction of dedicated products. A “transparent and accessible ocean” is one of the key objectives of the Ocean Decade 2021–30. In this context, marine infrastructures become significant components of a global knowledge environment, enabling environmental assessment and providing the necessary data for scientifically valid actions to protect and restore ocean health, to use marine resources in a sustainable way. The data is collected, analyzed, organized, and used by people and their good use/reuse can be obtained with social practices, technological and physical agreements aimed at facilitating collaborative knowledge, decision-making, inference. The vision is a digital ocean data ecosystem made up of multiple, interoperable, and scalable components. The huge amount of data and the resulting products can drive the development of new knowledge as well as new applications and services. Predictive capabilities that derive from the digital ecosystem enable the implementation of services for real-time decision-making, multihazard warning systems, and advance marine space planning. The chapter develops following the progressive complexity and information content of products deriving from oceanic data: data cycle and data collections, data products, oceanic reanalysis. The chapter discusses the new challenges of data products and the complexity of deriving them.

Description: Published

Description: 197-280

Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima

Description: Young and tectonically active chains like the Central Apennines (Italy) are featured by high structural complexity as a result of the overprint of subsequent deformational stages, making interpretation of seismotectonics challenging. The Central Apennines are characterized by the stacking of tectono-sedimentary units organized in thrust sheets. However, extensional tectonics is currently affecting the axial sector of the thrust belt, mostly expressing in extensional earthquakes. Using a large subsurface dataset acquired for hydrocarbon exploration in the region struck by the 2016–2017 Central Italy seismic sequence, we built a comprehensive 3D geological model and compared it with the seismicity. The model primarily shows a series of thrusts developed during the Miocene-Pliocene Apennines orogenesis and inherited normal faults developed during the Mesozoic extensional phase and the Miocene foreland flexural process. These normal faults were segmented and transported within the thrust sheets, and sometimes they still show a clear surface expression. The succession of tectonic stages resulted in a widespread reactivation of inherited structures, sometimes inverting their kinematics with different styles and rates, and disarticulating pre-existing configurations. Such evolution has a strong impact on the seismicity observed in the area, as demonstrated by some examples that show how the seismicity is aligned on segments of inherited faults, both compressional and extensional. Their reactivation can be explained by their favorable orientation within the current extensional stress field. Results feed the debate about the seismogenic potential of faults identified both at depth and surface, which can impact the seismic hazard of the Apennines.

Description: Published

Description: 228861

Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra

Description: 2T. Deformazione crostale attiva

Description: 4T. Sismicità dell'Italia

Description: JCR Journal

Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Day, J., Goodman, R., Chen, Z., Hunter, R., Giosan, L., & Wang, Y. Deltas in arid environments. Water, 13(12), (2021): 1677, https://doi.org/10.3390/w13121677.

Description: Due to increasing water use, diversion and salinization, along with subsidence and sea-level rise, deltas in arid regions are shrinking worldwide. Some of the most ecologically important arid deltas include the Colorado, Indus, Nile, and Tigris-Euphrates. The primary stressors vary globally, but these deltas are threatened by increased salinization, water storage and diversion, eutrophication, and wetland loss. In order to make these deltas sustainable over time, some water flow, including seasonal flooding, needs to be re-established. Positive impacts have been seen in the Colorado River delta after flows to the delta were increased. In addition to increasing freshwater flow, collaboration among stakeholders and active management are necessary. For the Nile River, cooperation among different nations in the Nile drainage basin is important. River flow into the Tigris-Euphrates River delta has been affected by politics and civil strife in the Middle East, but some flow has been re-allocated to the delta. Studies commissioned for the Indus River delta recommended re-establishment of some monthly water flow to maintain the river channel and to fight saltwater intrusion. However, accelerating climate impacts, socio-political conflicts, and growing populations suggest a dire future for arid deltas.

Description: This research received no external funding.

Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Trathan, P. N., Wienecke, B., Barbraud, C., Jenouvrier, S., Kooyman, G., Le Bohec, C., Ainley, D. G., Ancel, A., Zitterbart, D. P., Chown, S. L., LaRue, M., Cristofari, R., Younger, J., Clucas, G., Bost, C., Brown, J. A., Gillett, H. J., & Fretwell, P. T. The emperor penguin - vulnerable to projected rates of warming and sea ice loss. Biological Conservation, 241, (2020): 108216, doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2019.108216.

Description: We argue the need to improve climate change forecasting for ecology, and importantly, how to relate long-term projections to conservation. As an example, we discuss the need for effective management of one species, the emperor penguin, Aptenodytes forsteri. This species is unique amongst birds in that its breeding habit is critically dependent upon seasonal fast ice. Here, we review its vulnerability to ongoing and projected climate change, given that sea ice is susceptible to changes in winds and temperatures. We consider published projections of future emperor penguin population status in response to changing environments. Furthermore, we evaluate the current IUCN Red List status for the species, and recommend that its status be changed to Vulnerable, based on different modelling projections of population decrease of ≥50% over the current century, and the specific traits of the species. We conclude that current conservation measures are inadequate to protect the species under future projected scenarios. Only a reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will reduce threats to the emperor penguin from altered wind regimes, rising temperatures and melting sea ice; until such time, other conservation actions are necessary, including increased spatial protection at breeding sites and foraging locations. The designation of large-scale marine spatial protection across its range would benefit the species, particularly in areas that have a high probability of becoming future climate change refugia. We also recommend that the emperor penguin is listed by the Antarctic Treaty as an Antarctic Specially Protected Species, with development of a species Action Plan.

Description: We thank Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Tony Phillips and Kevin Hughes for helpful comments on earlier drafts of this manuscript. PNT acknowledges the support of WWF-UK under GB095701 and SJ the support of NSF OPP1744794 and 1643901.