ALBERT

Beschreibung: Methane emissions from northern high latitude wetlands constitute a major uncertainty in the atmospheric methane (CH4) budget during the Holocene. To reconstruct northern wetland methane emissions, we used an empirical model based on syntheses of observations of peat initiation from more than 3600 radiocarbon-dated basal peat ages, plant-macrofossil-derived peatland type from more than 250 peat cores from sites across the northern high latitudes, and observed CH4 emissions averaged from modern-day wetland types in order to explore the effects of wetland expansion and changes in wetland type. Peatland basal ages and plant macrofossil records showed the widespread formation of fens in major northern wetland complexes before 8000 BP. After 8000 BP, new fen formation continued, but widespread peatland succession (to bogs) and permafrost aggradation also occurred. Reconstructed CH4 emissions from peatlands increased rapidly between 10,600 BP and 6900 BP due to fen formation and expansion, then stabilized after 5000 BP at 42 ± 25 Tg CH4 y-1, as high methane-emitting fens transitioned to lower methane-emitting bogs and permafrost peatlands. Permafrost formation in northern peatlands after 1000 BP decreased CH4 emissions by 20% to 34 ± 21 Tg y-1 by the present day. Warming temperatures, changes in peatland hydrology, and permafrost thaw will likely change the magnitude of northern peatland emissions in the future.

Beschreibung: Infrastructure and anthropogenic impacts are expanding across the Arctic. A consistent record of human impact is required in order to quantify the changes and to assess climate change impacts on the communities. We derived a first panarctic satellite-based record of expanding infrastructure and anthropogenic impacts along all permafrost affected coasts (100 km buffer) within the H2020 project Nunataryuk based on Sentinel-1/2 satellite imagery. C-band synthetic aperture radar and multi-spectral information is combined through a machine learning framework. Depending on region, we identified up to 50% more information (human presence) than in OpenStreetMap. The combination with satellite records on vegetation change (specifically NDVI from Landsat since 2000) allowed quantification of recent expansion of infrastructure. Most of the expanded human presence occurred in Russia related predominantly to oil/gas industry. The majority of areas with human presence will be subject to thaw by mid-21st century based on ground temperature trends derived from the ESA CCI+ Permafrost time series (1997-2019). Of specific concern in this context are also settlements located directly at permafrost affected coasts. An efficient erosion rate monitoring scheme needs to be developed and combined with settlement records in order to assess the risk for local communities and infrastructure. Relevant progress in the framework of the ESA EO4PAC project will be discussed.

Beschreibung: Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS) are typical landforms indicating processes of rapid thawing and degrading permafrost. Their abundance is increasing in many regions and quantifying their dynamics is of high importance for assessing geomorphic, hydrologic, and biogeochemical impacts of climate change in the Arctic. Here we present a deep-learning (DL) based semantic segmentation framework to detect RTS, using high-resolution multi-spectral PlanetScope, topographic (ArcticDEM elevation and slope), and medium-resolution multi-temporal Landsat Trend data. We created a highly automated processing pipeline, which is designed to allow reproducible results and to be flexible for multiple input data types. The processing workflow is based on the pytorch deep-learning framework and includes a variety of different segmentation architectures (UNet, UNet++, DeepLabV3), backbones and includes common data transformation techniques such as augmentation or normalization. We tested (training, validation) our DL based model in six different regions of 100 to 300 km² size across Canada, and Siberia. We performed a regional cross-validation (5 regions training, 1 region validation) to test the spatial robustness and transferability of the algorithm. Furthermore, we tested different architectures, backbones and loss-functions to identify the best performing and most robust parameter sets. For training the models we created a database of manually digitized and validated RTS polygons. The resulting model performance varied strongly between different regions with maximum Intersection over Union (IoU) scores between 0.15 and 0.58. The strong regional variation emphasizes the need for sufficiently large training data, which is representative of the diversity of RTS types. However, the creation of good training data proved to be challenging due to the fuzzy definition and delineation of RTS. We are further continuing to improve the usability and the functionality to add further datasets and classes. We will show first results from the upscaling beyond small test areas towards large spatial clusters of extensive RTS presence e.g. Peel Plateau in NW Canada.

Beschreibung: With the Earth’s climate rapidly warming, the Arctic represents one of the most vulnerable regions to environmental change. These northern high latitude regions experience intensified fire seasons and especially tundra fires are projected to become more frequent and severe. Fires in permafrost regions have extensive impacts, including the initiation of thermokarst (rapid thaw of ice-rich ground), as they combust the upper organic soil layers which provide insulation to the permafrost below. Rapid permafrost thaw is, thus, often observable in fire scars in the first years post-disturbance. In polygonal ice-wedge landscapes, this becomes most prevalent through melting ice wedges and degrading troughs. The further these ice wedges degrade, the more troughs will likely connect and build an extensive hydrological network with changing patterns and degrees of connectivity that influences hydrology and runoff. While subsiding troughs over melting ice wedges may host new ponds, an increasing connectivity may also subsequently lead to more drainage of ponds, which in turn can limit further thaw and help stabilize the landscape. To quantify the changes in such dynamic landscapes over large regions, highly automated methods are needed that allow extracting information on the geomorphic state and changes over time of ice-wedge trough networks from remote sensing data. We developed a computer vision algorithm to automatically derive ice-wedge polygonal networks and the current microtopography of the degrading troughs from very high resolution, airborne laserscanning-based digital terrain models. We represent the networks as graphs (a concept from the computer sciences to describe complex networks) and apply methods from graph theory to describe and quantify hydrological network characteristics of the changing landscape. In fire scars, we especially observe rapidly growing networks and fast micromorphological change in those degrading troughs. In our study, we provide a space-for-time substitution comparing fire scars throughout the Alaskan tundra of up to 70 years since the fire disturbance, to show how this type of disturbed landscape evolves over time.

Beschreibung: Using our custom visualization tool for multitemporal Landsat satellite imagery we discovered, to our knowledge, an undocumented mega-landslide in far-east Siberia, which occurred in summer 2017 (https://bit.ly/2WYRLM1; 61.55°N; 170.01°E). To create and visualize this unique dataset, we processed temporal trends of multispectral indices of 〉100,000 Landsat images for a period from 2000-2019 using the freely available Google Earth Engine cloud processing platform (https://ingmarnitze.users.earthengine.app/view/hotspottcvisapp). The megaslide has a size of 3.66 km² and using the ArcticDEM data we estimate a volume movement of ~20 Mm³. With this size and volume, the landslide is among the largest globally known in recent decades. The landslide is accompanied by a smaller one (0.31 km², 1 Mm³) about 600 m further east, which already occurred in summer 2015. The large landslide caused the formation of several small lakes by blocking two valleys with debris and within newly formed crevasses near the hilltop, which are still persisting as of August 2021. As this event occurred in a remote valley far from any settlement, no visible damage to infrastructure or human livelihoods was detected. The remoteness has likely led to being not detected, like many similar, albeit a lot smaller, erosion features in the Arctic permafrost region. In this presentation we will show the main properties of the landslide, potential trigger mechanisms in the traditional sense. As this region is located along the fringes of permafrost presence we will discuss its potential connection to the rapidly warming climate in the high latitudes. Further, we will discuss how such a large event remained undetected for several years. We discuss and highlight the value of our landscape change visualization tool based on Landsat trend analysis (see Nitze et al., AGU 2020), which helped us to identify this extreme event. With more and more available data sources, this tool in addition to automated image analysis (e.g. deep-learning) or seismic analysis will help to uncover the hidden processes and dynamics of the Earth’s surface.

Beschreibung: Several decades of research have provided insight into patterns of and controls on thermokarst initiation and expansion, yet studies tend to focus on individual types of thermokarst (i.e., thaw lake formation and subsequent drainage) in particular regions. Today, we are left with uneven knowledge about abrupt permafrost thaw both conceptually and regionally. The goal of this presentation is to summarize recent advancements in monitoring thermokarst and its impact on soil, vegetation, and water while also framing a call to action for the next decade of research. Over the next decade, permafrost researchers must align their efforts on several fronts to not only increase our knowledge about changing permafrost but to align this knowledge with key community and policy needs. To support climate change planning and adaptation, northern communities need future thaw vulnerability mapped at scales relevant to their needs, which will require a suite of downscaled and new mapping and remote sensing products. Thermokarst predisposition maps based on circumpolar datasets greatly overestimate the area vulnerable to thermokarst, which can lead to poor planning and climate anxiety. In some situations, existing mapping products may be useful for downscaling with more detailed input data. In other situations, entirely new approaches may be required to support local action. A second key need for community relevant research is the ability to detect and monitor early warning indicators of thermokarst. Such information is needed to support scenario planning and to help mitigate the risks to social, cultural, and physical infrastructure created by permafrost change. We are evaluating the potential for using changes in vegetation, wetting/drying and topography as early warning indicators of thermokarst, all of which can be remotely sensed. Finally, integrating fine-scale disturbances such as thermokarst into large scale models remains a key challenge but critical for supporting sound climate policy. While a diversity of permafrost modeling approaches is necessary, we outline guiding principles that will help enhance model comparisons, assimilation of simulated data across spatiotemporal scales, and the ability for policy decisions to be rapidly informed by emerging science on permafrost change.

Beschreibung: Objectives N-Terminal pro Brain Natriuretic Peptide (NT-proBNP) is a diagnostic marker for heart failure and a prognostic factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). The aim of this study was to examine the association of socioeconomic position (SEP) with NT-proBNP while assessing sex-differences and the impact of CVD risk factors and prevalent CVD on the association. Methods Baseline data of 4598 participants aged 45–75 years of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study were used. Income and education were used as SEP indicators. Age- and sex-adjusted linear regression models were fitted to calculate effect size estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95%-CIs) for the total effect of SEP indicators on NT-proBNP, while potential mediation was assessed by additionally accounting for traditional CVD risk factors (i.e., systolic blood pressure, HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, diabetes, anti-hypertensive medication, lipid-lowering medication, BMI, current smoking). Education and income were included separately in the models. Results With an age- and sex-adjusted average change in NT-proBNP of -6.47% (95%-CI: -9.91; -2.91) per 1000€, the association between income and NT-proBNP was more pronounced compared to using education as a SEP indicator (-0.80% [95%-CI: -1.92; 0.32] per year of education). Sex-stratified results indicated stronger associations in men (-8.43% [95%-CI: -13.21; -3.38] per 1000€; -1.63% [95%-CI: -3.23; -0.001] per year of education) compared to women (-5.10% [95%-CI: -9.82; -0.01] per 1000€; -1.04% [95%-CI: -2.59; 0.50] per year of education). After adjusting for CVD risk factors some of the observed effect size estimates were attenuated, while the overall association between SEP indicators and NT-proBNP was still indicated. The exclusion of participants with prevalent coronary heart disease or stroke did not lead to a substantial change in the observed associations. Conclusions In the present study associations of education and income with NT-proBNP were observed in a population-based study sample. Only parts of the association were explained by traditional CVD risk factors, while there were substantial sex-differences in the strength of the observed association. Overt coronary heart disease or stroke did not seem to trigger the associations.

Beschreibung: The maned wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus) is an induced ovulator. Though the mechanism of ovulation induction remains unknown, it is suspected to be urinary chemical signals excreted by males. This study assessed volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in weekly urine samples across 5 months from 13 maned wolves (6 intact males, 1 neutered male, 6 females) with the goal of identifying VOCs that are differentially expressed across sex, reproductive status, and pairing status. Solid-phase microextraction (SPME) and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) were used to extract and separate VOCs that were identified via spectral matching with authentic standards, with spectral libraries, or with new software that further matches molecular fragment structures with mass spectral peaks. Two VOCs were present across all 317 urine samples: 2,5-dimethyl pyrazine and 2-methyl-6-(1-propenyl)-pyrazine. Fifteen VOCs differed significantly (Adj. P 〈 0.001 and |log2 fold change| 〉2.0) between intact males and females. Using partial least squares-discriminant analysis, the compounds with the highest importance to the sex classification were delta-decalactone, delta-dodecalactone, and bis(prenyl) sulfide. Sixty-two VOCs differed between intact males and the neutered male. Important classifier compounds were 3-ethyl 2,5-dimethyl pyrazine, 2-methyl-6-(1-propenyl)-pyrazine, and tetrahydro-2-isopentyl-5-propyl furan. Several VOCs established as important here have been implicated in reproductive communication in other mammals. This study is the most robust examination of differential expression in the maned wolf thus far and provides the most comprehensive analysis of maned wolf urinary VOCs to date, increasing the sample size substantially over previous chemical communication studies in this species. New data analysis software allowed for the identification of compounds in the hormone-producing mevalonate pathway which were previously unreported in maned wolf urine. Several putative semiochemicals were identified as good candidates for behavioral bioassays to determine their role in maned wolf reproduction, and specifically in ovulation induction.

Beschreibung: Background Patients admitted to intensive care units (ICU) are at an increased risk of developing immobility related complications. Physiotherapists are challenged to employ preventive and rehabilitative strategies to combat these effects. Passive limb range of motion (PROM) exercises- a part of early mobilization-aid in maintaining joint range of motion and functional muscle strength and forms a part of treatment for patients in ICU. However, there is a lack of evidence on practice of PROM exercises on patients admitted to ICU in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This study aimed at exploring practices regarding the same in UAE. Methods This survey, conducted from January 2021 to February 2021 in College of Physiotherapy, Sharjah University studied practice of physiotherapists in the intensive care units. Physiotherapists currently working in ICU completed an online questionnaire composed of forty-two questions about physiotherapy service provision, assessment and intervention in the intensive care units. Results 33 physiotherapists completed the survey. 66.6% of respondents routinely assessed PROM for all the patients in ICU referred for physiotherapy. 84.8% of them assessed all the joints. More than half of the respondents (57.8%) reported that they administered PROM regularly to all the patients. According to 63.6% respondents, maintaining joint range of motion was the main reason for performing PROM. Responses pertaining to sets and repetitions of PROM were variable ranging from 1–6 sets and from 3 to 30 repetitions. Personal experience, resources/financial consideration and research findings were found to have influence on the practice. Conclusions PROM was found to be one of the frequently used mobilization techniques administered by physiotherapists in the intensive care units and was mostly performed after assessment. Maintaining joint range of motion was the main aim for performing PROM. Variability was found in the sets and repetitions of PROM administered. Various factors influenced the practice of PROM.

Beschreibung: The role the mammary epithelial circadian clock plays in gland development and lactation is unknown. We hypothesized that mammary epithelial clocks function to regulate mammogenesis and lactogenesis, and propose the core clock transcription factor BMAL1:CLOCK regulates genes that control mammary epithelial development and milk synthesis. Our objective was to identify transcriptional targets of BMAL1 in undifferentiated (UNDIFF) and lactogen differentiated (DIFF) mammary epithelial cells (HC11) using ChIP-seq. Ensembl gene IDs with the nearest transcriptional start site to ChIP-seq peaks were explored as potential targets, and represented 846 protein coding genes common to UNDIFF and DIFF cells and 2773 unique to DIFF samples. Genes with overlapping peaks between samples (1343) enriched cell-cell adhesion, membrane transporters and lipid metabolism categories. To functionally verify targets, an HC11 line with Bmal1 gene knocked out (BMAL1-KO) using CRISPR-CAS was created. BMAL1-KO cultures had lower cell densities over an eight-day growth curve, which was associated with increased (p

Beschreibung: Objectives N-benzoyl-DL-arginine peptidase (trypsin-like peptidase) is specifically produced by certain strains of periodontitis-associated bacteria. We aimed to examine the effectiveness of an objectively quantified trypsin-like peptidase activity assay (TLP-AA) for detecting severe periodontitis. Methods The study population included 347 adults (108 men and 239 women; average age, 43.3 years) who underwent a full-mouth periodontal examination. Specimens for the TLP-AA were obtained using tongue swabs. Using a color reader, the TLP-AA results were obtained as a* values, with higher positive a* values indicating an increased intense enzymatic activity. The predictive validity of the TLP-AA results for severe periodontitis was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and the periodontitis case definition provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/American Academy of Periodontology as the gold standard. Furthermore, multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to predict severe periodontitis using the TLP-AA results and health characteristics, as the exposure variables. Results Severe periodontitis was observed in 5.2% of the participants. TLP-AA had high diagnostic accuracy for severe periodontitis, with an area under the curve of 0.83 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.75–0.92). The cut-off score for the a* value that best differentiated individuals with severe periodontitis was 0.09, with a sensitivity of 83% and specificity of 77%. Multivariable logistic regression analyses revealed that the TLP-AA results were significantly associated with severe periodontitis after adjusting for health characteristics (adjusted odds ratios: 1.90 [95% CI: 1.37–2.62] for the a* value). Conclusions Objectively quantified TLP-AA results are potentially useful for detecting severe periodontitis in epidemiological surveillance.

Beschreibung: Ultradian glucocorticoid rhythms are highly conserved across mammalian species, however, their functional significance is not yet fully understood. Here we demonstrate that pulsatile corticosterone replacement in adrenalectomised rats induces a dynamic pattern of glucocorticoid receptor (GR) binding at ~3,000 genomic sites in liver at the pulse peak, subsequently not found during the pulse nadir. In contrast, constant corticosterone replacement induced prolonged binding at the majority of these sites. Additionally, each pattern further induced markedly different transcriptional responses. During pulsatile treatment, intragenic occupancy by active RNA polymerase II exhibited pulsatile dynamics with transient changes in enrichment, either decreased or increased depending on the gene, which mostly returned to baseline during the inter-pulse interval. In contrast, constant corticosterone exposure induced prolonged effects on RNA polymerase II occupancy at the majority of gene targets, thus acting as a sustained regulatory signal for both transactivation and repression of glucocorticoid target genes. The nett effect of these differences were consequently seen in the liver transcriptome as RNA-seq analysis indicated that despite the same overall amount of corticosterone infused, twice the number of transcripts were regulated by constant corticosterone infusion, when compared to pulsatile. Target genes that were found to be differentially regulated in a pattern-dependent manner were enriched in functional pathways including carbohydrate, cholesterol, glucose and fat metabolism as well as inflammation, suggesting a functional role for dysregulated glucocorticoid rhythms in the development of metabolic dysfunction.

Beschreibung: Introduction Suicidality is a risk of a person committing suicide often characterized by suicidal ideation, intent or attempts. Despite the high burden of suicidality among individuals living with HIV and HAIDS, there is paucity of data on the impact of suicidality on clinical (such as CD4 counts and HIV disease progression) and behavioural outcomes (such as adherence to HIV Medications). Cross-sectional investigations of these associations are often complicated by bidirectional causal relationships and hence the need for longitudinal study designs. We conducted a cohort study to determine the impact of suicidality on clinical and behavioural outcomes among adults living with HIV/AIDS in Uganda. Materials and methods We conducted the study among 1099 ART naïve adults living with HIV/AIDS in Uganda. Data were collected at three time points: baseline, 6 and 12 months. Multiple regression and discrete time survival models were used to determine the relationship between suicidality and indices of HIV outcomes. Results Majority of the participants were female and the participant mean age was 35 years. Most of them (73%) had primary or no formal education. The proportion of participants with suicidality decreased from 2.9% at baseline to roughly 1% both at month 6 and month 12. Of the investigated clinical and behavioural outcomes, baseline suicidality only had a negative impact on missing a dose of ART where the odds of missing a dose of ART were 8.25 (95% CI 2.45–27.71, p〉0.01) times higher for participants with suicidality compared to those without suicidality. The following outcomes were not significantly impacted by baseline suicidality: HIV clinical stage, CD4 count and risky sexual behaviour. Conclusions The fact that baseline suicidality significantly negatively impacted ART adherence calls for the incorporation of psychosocial interventions to target indices of psychological distress such as suicidality to improve HIV related outcomes.

Beschreibung: Background The COVID-19 vaccination campaign in the US has been immensely successful in vaccinating those who are receptive, further increases in vaccination rates however will require more innovative approaches to reach those who remain hesitant. Developing vaccination strategies that are modelled on what people want could further increase uptake. Methods and findings To inform COVID-19 vaccine distribution strategies that are aligned with public preferences we conducted a discrete choice experiment among the US public (N = 2,895) between March 15 to March 22, 2021. We applied sampling weights, evaluated mean preferences using mixed logit models, and identified latent class preference subgroups. On average, the public prioritized ease, preferring single to two dose vaccinations (mean preference: -0.29; 95%CI: -0.37 to -0.20), vaccinating once rather than annually (mean preference: -0.79; 95%CI: -0.89 to -0.70) and reducing waiting times at vaccination sites. Vaccine enforcement reduced overall vaccine acceptance (mean preference -0.20; 95%CI: -0.30 to -0.10), with a trend of increasing resistance to enforcement with increasing vaccine hesitancy. Latent class analysis identified four distinct preference phenotypes: the first prioritized inherent “vaccine features” (46.1%), the second were concerned about vaccine “service delivery” (8.8%), a third group desired “social proof” of vaccine safety and were susceptible to enforcement (13.2%), and the fourth group were “indifferent” to vaccine and service delivery features and resisted enforcement (31.9%). Conclusions This study identifies several critical insights for the COVID-19 public health response. First, identifying preference segments is essential to ensure that vaccination services meet the needs of diverse population subgroups. Second, making vaccination easy and promoting autonomy by simplifying services and offering the public choices (where feasible) may increase uptake in those who remain deliberative. And, third vaccine mandates have the potential to increase vaccination rates in susceptible groups but may simultaneously promote control aversion and resistance in those who are most hesitant.

Beschreibung: Introduction The single-leg heel raise test (SLHR) is commonly used in clinical settings to approximate plantar flexor strength, yet this is neither validated nor supported physiologically. The purposes of this study were to: determine (1) associations between SLHR repetitions, maximal plantar flexor strength, and reductions in strength; and (2) whether sex differences exist in performance of the SLHR. Methods Twenty-eight young, healthy participants (14 males,14 females, 19–30 years) performed repeated single-leg heel raises to task failure. Pre- and post-task measures included maximal voluntary isometric contractions (MVIC), and voluntary activation and contractile properties of the plantar flexor muscles, assessed using peripheral electrical stimulation of the tibial nerve. Surface electromyography was recorded for the medial and lateral gastrocnemius, soleus, and anterior tibialis muscles. Results The SLHR resulted in 20.5% reductions in MVIC torque (p

Beschreibung: Stream temperature science and management is rapidly shifting from single-metric driven approaches to multi-metric, thermal regime characterizations of streamscapes. Given considerable investments in recovery of cold-water fisheries (e.g., Pacific salmon and other declining native species), understanding where cold water is likely to persist, and how cold-water thermal regimes vary, is critical for conservation. California’s unique position at the southern end of cold-water ecosystems in the northern hemisphere, variable geography and hydrology, and extensive flow regulation requires a systematic approach to thermal regime classification. We used publicly available, long-term (〉 8 years) stream temperature data from 77 sites across California to model their thermal regimes, calculate three temperature metrics, and use the metrics to classify each regime with an agglomerative nesting algorithm. Then, we assessed the variation in each class and considered underlying physical or anthropogenic factors that could explain differences between classes. Finally, we considered how different classes might fit existing criteria for cool- or cold-water thermal regimes, and how those differences complicate efforts to manage stream temperature through regulation. Our results demonstrate that cool- and cold-water thermal regimes vary spatially across California. Several salient findings emerge from this study. Groundwater-dominated streams are a ubiquitous, but as yet, poorly explored class of thermal regimes. Further, flow regulation below dams imposes serial discontinuities, including artificial thermal regimes on downstream ecosystems. Finally, and contrary to what is often assumed, California reservoirs do not contain sufficient cold-water storage to replicate desirable, reach-scale thermal regimes. While barriers to cold-water conservation are considerable and the trajectory of cold-water species towards extinction is dire, protecting reaches that demonstrate resilience to climate warming remains worthwhile.

Beschreibung: This paper investigated the appropriate specifications of Engel curves for non-food expenditure categories and estimated the deprivation indices of non-food needs in rural areas using a semi parametric examination of the presence of saturation points. The study used the extended partial linear model (EPLM) and adopted two estimation methods—the double residual estimator and differencing estimator—to obtain flexible shapes across different expenditure categories and estimate equivalence scales. We drew on data of the Egyptian Household Income, Expenditure, and Consumption Survey (HIEC). Our paper provides empirical evidence that the rankings of most non-food expenditure categories is of rank three at most. Rural households showed high economies of scale in non-food consumption, with child’s needs accounting for only 10% of adult’s non-food needs. Based on semi-parametrically estimated consumption behavior, the tendency of non-food expenditure categories to saturate did not emerge. While based on parametrically estimated consumption behavior, rural areas exhibited higher deprivation indices in terms of health and education expenditure categories, which indicates the need to design specific programs economically targeting such vulnerable households.

Beschreibung: Menzerath’s law is a quantitative linguistic law which states that, on average, the longer is a linguistic construct, the shorter are its constituents. In contrast, Menzerath-Altmann’s law (MAL) is a precise mathematical power-law-exponential formula which expresses the expected length of the linguistic construct conditioned on the number of its constituents. In this paper, we investigate the anatomy of MAL for constructs being word tokens and constituents being syllables, measuring its length in graphemes. First, we derive the exact form of MAL for texts generated by the memoryless source with three emitted symbols, which can be interpreted as a monkey typing model or a null model. We show that this null model complies with Menzerath’s law, revealing that Menzerath’s law itself can hardly be a criterion of complexity in communication. This observation does not apply to the more precise Menzerath-Altmann’s law, which predicts an inverted regime for sufficiently range constructs, i.e., the longer is a word, the longer are its syllables. To support this claim, we analyze MAL on data from 21 languages, consisting of texts from the Standardized Project Gutenberg. We show the presence of the inverted regime, not exhibited by the null model, and we demonstrate robustness of our results. We also report the complicated distribution of syllable sizes with respect to their position in the word, which might be related with the emerging MAL. Altogether, our results indicate that Menzerath’s law—in terms of correlations—is a spurious observation, while complex patterns and efficiency dynamics should be rather attributed to specific forms of Menzerath-Altmann’s law.

Beschreibung: Temperate grassland soils store significant amounts of carbon (C). Estimating how much livestock grazing and manuring can influence grassland soil organic carbon (SOC) is key to improve greenhouse gas grassland budgets. The Rothamsted Carbon (RothC) model, although originally developed and parameterized to model the turnover of organic C in arable topsoil, has been widely used, with varied success, to estimate SOC changes in grassland under different climates, soils, and management conditions. In this paper, we hypothesise that RothC-based SOC predictions in managed grasslands under temperate moist climatic conditions can be improved by incorporating small modifications to the model based on existing field data from diverse experimental locations in Europe. For this, we described and evaluated changes at the level of: (1) the soil water function of RothC, (2) entry pools accounting for the degradability of the exogenous organic matter (EOM) applied (e.g., ruminant excreta), (3) the month-on-month change in the quality of C inputs coming from plant residues (i.e above-, below-ground plant residue and rhizodeposits), and (4) the livestock trampling effect (i.e., poaching damage) as a common problem in areas with higher annual precipitation. In order to evaluate the potential utility of these changes, we performed a simple sensitivity analysis and tested the model predictions against averaged data from four grassland experiments in Europe. Our evaluation showed that the default model’s performance was 78% and whereas some of the modifications seemed to improve RothC SOC predictions (model performance of 95% and 86% for soil water function and plant residues, respectively), others did not lead to any/or almost any improvement (model performance of 80 and 46% for the change in the C input quality and livestock trampling, respectively). We concluded that, whereas adding more complexity to the RothC model by adding the livestock trampling would actually not improve the model, adding the modified soil water function and plant residue components, and at a lesser extent residues quality, could improve predictability of the RothC in managed grasslands under temperate moist climatic conditions.

Beschreibung: The success of unmanned car, an emerging tool of transportation with so many advantages, depends to a large extent on its user acceptability. Potential designers are both the decision makers of driverless car design and the users of driverless cars. This study aims to explore the influencing factors of the potential designers’ intention to use unmanned cars. Based on the theory of Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), this study further expanded the TAM by incorporating perceived trust, perceived enjoyment and self-efficacy, so as to explain and predict potential designers’ intention to use unmanned cars. The questionnaire is determined through theoretical literature, pre-tests, etc., and the Structural Equation Model is used to analyze the data of 202 valid survey samples to investigate the influencing factors of the willingness to use unmanned vehicles. The results show that potential designers’ intention to use unmanned cars is positively affected by perceived trust, perceived enjoyment, perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use, and perceived trust has a positive effect on perceived ease of use, self-efficacy and perceived ease of use also have a positive effect on perceived usefulness. The findings of this study can provide designers and developers of unmanned cars, policy makers and implementers with guidance in the follow-up design, policy formulation and advertising of unmanned cars.

Beschreibung: Global value chains are formed through value-added trade, and some regions promote economic integration by concluding regional trade agreements to promote these chains. However, it has not been established to quantitatively assess the scope and extent of economic integration involving various sectors in multiple countries. In this study, we used the World Input–Output Database to create a cross-border sector-wise network of trade in value-added (international value-added network) covering the period of 2000–2014 and evaluated them using network science methods. By applying Infomap to the international value-added network, we confirmed two regional communities: Europe and the Pacific Rim. We applied Helmholtz–Hodge decomposition to the value-added flows within the region into potential and circular flows, and clarified the annual evolution of the potential and circular relationships between countries and sectors. The circular flow component of the decomposition was used to define an economic integration index. Findings confirmed that the degree of economic integration in Europe declined sharply after the economic crisis in 2009 to a level lower than that in the Pacific Rim. The European economic integration index recovered in 2011 but again fell below that of the Pacific Rim in 2013. Moreover, sectoral economic integration indices suggest what Europe depends on Russia in natural resources makes the European economic integration index unstable. On the other hand, the indices of the Pacific Rim suggest the steady economic integration index of the Pacific Rim captures the stable global value chains from natural resources to construction and manufactures of motor vehicles and high-tech products.

Beschreibung: Background COPD and asthma exacerbations result in many emergency department admissions. Not all treatments are successful, often leading to hospital readmissions. Aims We sought to develop predictive models for exacerbation treatment outcome in a cohort of exacerbating asthma and COPD patients presenting to the emergency department. Methods Treatment failure was defined as the need for additional systemic corticosteroids (SCS) and/or antibiotics, hospital readmissison or death within 30 days of initial emergency department visit. We performed univariate analysis comparing characteristics of patients either given or not given SCS at exacerbation and of patients who succeeded versus failed treatment. Patient demographics, medications and exacerbation symptoms, physiology and biology were available. We developed multivariate random forest models to identify predictors of SCS prescription and for predicting treatment failure. Results Data were available for 81 patients, 43 (53%) of whom failed treatment. 64 (79%) of patients were given SCS. A random forest model using presence of wheeze at exacerbation and blood eosinophil percentage predicted SCS prescription with area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) 0.69. An 11 variable random forest model (which included medication, previous exacerbations, symptoms and quality of life scores) could predict treatment failure with AUC 0.81. A random forest model using just the two best predictors of treatment failure, namely, visual analogue scale for breathlessness and sputum purulence, predicted treatment failure with AUC 0.68. Conclusion Prediction of exacerbation treatment outcome can be achieved via supervised machine learning combining different predictors at exacerbation. Validation of our predictive models in separate, larger patient cohorts is required.

Beschreibung: Introduction The concept of death is abstract, complex and has a number of meanings. Thus, its understanding and the approach taken to it depend, to a large extent, on aspects such as age, culture, training and religion. Nursing students have regular contact with the process of death and so it is of great interest to understand the attitudes they have towards it. As we live in a plural society it is even more interesting to not only understand the attitudes of Spanish students but, also, those of students coming from other countries. In the present article, we seek to identify and compare the attitudes held by nursing degree students at Hekima-Santé University (Senegal) and the University of Huelva (Spain) about end of life processes. The study identifies elements that condition attitudes and coping with death, whilst considering curricular differences with regards to specific end of life training. Method A descriptive, cross-sectional and multi-center study was conducted. The overall sample (N = 142) was divided into groups: Hekima-Santé University (Dakar, Senegal) and the University of Huelva (Huelva, Spain). The measurement instruments used were an ad-hoc questionnaire and Bugen´s Coping with Death Scale. Results Statistically significant differences (p = 0.005, 95%CI) were found in relation to overall Bugen Scale scores. We can confirm that specialized end of life training (University of Huelva, Spain) did not lead to better coping when compared with a population whose academic curriculum did not provide specific training and who engaged in more religious practices (Hekima-Santé University, Senegal). Conclusions In cultures where religion not only influences the spiritual dimension of the individual, but acts in the ethical and moral system and consequently in the economic, educational and family sphere, the accompaniment at the end of life transcends the formative plane. Considering the plural society in which we live, the training that integrates the Degree in Nursing with regard to the care of the final process, must be multidimensional in which spirituality and faith are integrated, working emotional and attentional skills, as well as cultural competence strategies in this process.

Beschreibung: Introduction Absenteeism of frontline health workers in public sector facilities is widespread in low-income countries. There is little quantitative evidence on how health worker absenteeism influences patient treatment seeking behavior, though low public sector utilization and heavy reliance on the informal sector are well documented in low-income settings. Methods Using a unique panel dataset covering health facilities and households over a 10-month period in Uganda, we investigate the extent to which health worker absenteeism (defined as zero health workers present at a health facility) impacts patient care seeking behavior, testing, and treatment. Results We find high rates of health worker absenteeism at public sector health facilities, with most of the absenteeism occurring at lower level public health clinics. On average, no health worker was present in 42% of all days monitored in lowest level public health clinics, whereas this number was less than 5% in high level public hospitals and private facilities. In our preferred empirical model with household fixed effects, we find that health worker absenteeism reduces the odds that a patient seeks care in the public sector (OR = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.44–0.95) and receives malaria testing (OR = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.53–0.99) and increases the odds of paying out-of-pocket for treatment (OR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.10–1.80). The estimated differences in care-seeking are larger for children under-five than for the overall study population. Conclusions The impact of health worker absenteeism on the quality of care received as well as the financial burden faced by households in sub-Saharan Africa is substantial.

Beschreibung: Malaria is still a global health problem. Plasmodium is a single-cell protozoan parasite that causes malaria and is transmitted to humans through the female Anopheles mosquito. The previous study showed that Sonchus arvensis L. callus has antiplasmodial activity. Several treatments are needed for callus quality improvement for antimalarial compound production. This study aimed to examine the effect of dolomite [CaMg(CO3)2] on growth (morpho-anatomical structure and biomass), secondary metabolite production, and in vitro antiplasmodial activity of S. arvensis L. callus. In this study, leaf explants were grown in Murashige and Skoog medium with a combination of 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D, one mg/L) and 6-benzyl amino purine (BAP, 0.5 mg/L) with dolomite (50, 75, 100, 150, and 200 mg/L). The 21 days callus ethanolic and methanolic extract were analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and thin-layer chromatography (TLC). The antiplasmodial test was performed on a blood culture infected with Plasmodium falciparum strain 3D7 using the Rieckmann method. The results showed that dolomite significantly affected callus growth, metabolite profile, and in vitro antiplasmodial activity. Dolomite (150 mg/L) showed the highest biomass (0.590 ± 0.136 g fresh weight and 0.074 ± 0.008 g dry weight). GC-MS analysis detected four compounds from callus ethanolic extract. Pelargonic acid, decanoic acid, and hexadecanoic acid were major compounds. One new terpenoid compound is based on TLC analysis. S. arvensis L. callus has antiplasmodial activity with the IC50 value of 5.037 μg/mL. It was three times lower than leaf methanolic extract and five times lower than leaf ethanolic extract.

Beschreibung: Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) systems and their control have gained attraction recently as they approximate nonlinear systems with higher order than ordinary linear systems. On the other hand, time delay is an inherent part of various real-life applications. A supervisory control structure is proposed in this paper for LPV systems subject to time delays. In the proposed control structure, a supervisor selects the most suitable controller from a bank of controllers; which desires to enhance the performance of closed-loop system in contrast with using a single robust controller. The analysis is based on the celebrated Smith predictor for time delay compensation and we provide a sufficient condition to assure the stability of the closed-loop switched system in terms of dwell time. Simulations on blood pressure control of hypertension patients in postoperative scenario are used to exemplify the effectiveness of the utilized technique. The operating region of the system is partitioned into five smaller operating regions to construct corresponding robust controllers and perform hysteresis switching amongst them. Simulation results witnessed that the proposed control scheme demonstrated a pressure undershoot less than the desired value of 10 mmHg while the Mean Arterial Pressure (MAP) remains within ±5 mmHg of the desired value.

Beschreibung: Background Assessing fitness to drive and predicting driving cessation remains a challenge for primary care physicians using standard screening procedures. The objective of this study was to prospectively evaluate the properties of neuropsychological screening tests, including the Trail Making Test (TMT), Clock Drawing Test (CDT), Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA), Useful Field of View (UFOV), and Timed Up and Go (TUG) test, in predicting driving cessation for health reasons in drivers older than 70 years of age. Design and methods This prospective cohort study, with a median follow-up of 4 years for drivers of 70 years old or older with an active driving license in Switzerland, included 441 participants from a driving refresher course dedicated to volunteer senior drivers. Cases were drivers reported in the national driving registry who lost their license following a health-related accident, who were reported as unfit to drive by their physician or voluntarily ceased driving for health reasons. Survival analysis was used to measure the hazard ratio of driving cessation by adjusting for age and sex and to evaluate the predictive value of combining 3 or more positive tests in predicting driving cessation during a 4-year follow-up. Results A total of 1738 person-years were followed-up in the cohort, with 19 (4.3%) having ceased driving for health reasons. We found that participants with a TMT-A 〈 54 sec and TMT-B 〈 150 sec at baseline had a significantly lower cumulative hazard of driving cessation in 4 years than those with slower performance (adjusted HR 3, 95% CI: 1.16–7.78, p = 0.023). Participants who performed a CDT ≥ 5 had a significantly lower cumulative hazard of driving cessation (adjusted HR 2.89, 95% CI: 1.01–7.71, p = 0.033). Similarly, an MoCA score ≥ 26, TUG test