ALBERT

Description: Acoustic waves in the sun are separated into two categories: global and local. Global oscillations are excited through convection, and resonate in the solar interior. As with all resonant media, propagation of these acoustic waves is limited to specific frequencies for a given wavenumber. These modes are easily distinguished in 1-v diagrams, such as in figure 1. Global modes dominate the spectrum in the 2-5 mHz range. Local oscillations, so-called "sunquakes", are usually excited by particularly strong flares and can be observed as ring-shaped waves propagating away from the point of impact. The propagation is best displayed in a time-distance diagram, where a slit passing from the source to some distance away. Distance is displayed on the x-axis, and the time-series is plotted along the y-axis; an example is shown in figure 1, showing the sunquake induced by the Sept 2017 X-class flare.

Description: No abstract available

Description: The long-standing problem of understanding the evolution of the global magnetic fields that drive solar activity through different temporal scales is becoming more tractable because, in addition to 400 years of sunspot records, we now have almost 4 solar cycles of magnetic field observations. These observations allow us to discern physical connections between dynamo model variables and observations using data assimilation analysis. In particular, the Ensemble Kalman Filter approach takes into account uncertainties in both observations and modeling and allows us to make reliable forecasts of solar cycle activity by using a relatively simple non-linear dynamical model of the solar dynamo. To expand this approach for more complex 2D and 3D dynamo modeling, it is necessary to decompose the observed synoptic magnetograms into poloidal and toroidal field components. In this presentation I will present initial results on magnetogram decomposition and assimilation of magnetogram data into dynamo modeling.

Description: No abstract available

Description: We report on an the emergence of an anemone active region in a very small coronal hole (about 120'' across), beginning at approximately 19:00 UT on March 3, 2016. The emergence was initially observed by an amateur astronomer (RW) in an H-alpha movie from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG); it attracted the attention of the observer because there was no active region at the site of the H-alpha brightening. To examine the region in detail, we use data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), provided by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) in wavelengths 193 , 211 , 304 , and 94 , and with the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI). Data analysis and calibration activities such as scaling, rotation so that north is up, and removal of solar rotation are accomplished with SunPy. The emergence seen in HMI data begins with the appearance of a bipole close to the center of the coronal hole, followed by the appearance and growth of a coronal anemone in AIA-EUV images; as the emergence proceeds, the anemone fills the coronal hole in AIA wavelengths. The interchange reconnection of the emerging closed field with ambient open field builds the anemone and shifts the coronal hole from one side of the anemone to the other. Eventually, a sunspot forms in one foot of the emerging field. To date, studies of observations with SDO of anemone emergence in on-disk coronal holes are rare. This bipolar flux emergence episode fits well with the standard picture for the production of coronal-anemone regions.

Description: No abstract available

Description: The long-standing problem of understanding the evolution of the global magnetic fields that drive solar activity through different temporal scales is becoming more tractable because, in addition to 400 years of sunspot records, we now have almost 4 solar cycles of magnetic field observations. These observations allow us to discern physical connections between dynamo model variables and observations using data assimilation analysis. In particular, the Ensemble Kalman Filter approach takes into account uncertainties in both observations and modeling and allows us to make reliable forecasts of solar cycle activity cycles by using a relatively simple non-linear dynamical model of the solar dynamo. To expand this approach for more complex 2D and 3D dynamo modeling, it is necessary to decompose the observed synoptic magnetograms into poloidal and toroidal field components. In this presentation I will present initial results on magnetogram decomposition and assimilation of magnetogram data into dynamo modeling.

Description: We present on a concept study of the Goddard Miniature Coronagraph (GMC) mission for measuring the plasma flow in the solar corona in the form of solar wind and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). These mass flows can dramatically alter the near-Earth space environment to hazardous conditions posing danger to human technology in space. The primary science objective of the mission is to measure the properties of CMEs, coronal structures, and the solar wind near the Sun. The miniaturization of the coronagraph involves using a single-stage optics and a polarization camera, both of which reduce the size of the coronagraph. GMC will be accommodated in a small satellite that can be built with CubeSat material to minimize cost. The development of the Dellingr mission at NASA/GSFC has provided expertise and a clear pathway to build the GMC mission. The hardware and software used for the Dellingr (a name derived from the god of the dawn in Norse mythology) Mission are technically sound, so the GMC mission can be fully defined. Software, pointing, control and communications systems developed for GSFC CubeSats can be readily adapted to cut costs. We present orbit options such as an ISS (International Space Station) orbit or a Sun-synchronous dawn-dusk polar orbit with the aim of maximizing solar observations.

Description: The Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) was originally designed as a two- to five-year heliocentric orbit mission to study coronal mass ejections (CMEs), solar energetic particles (SEPs), and the solar wind. After over ten years of continuous science data collection, the twin NASA STEREO observatories have significantly advanced the understanding of Heliophysics. This mission was the first to image CMEs all the way from the Sun to Earth and to observe the entire sphere of the Sun at one time. STEREO has demonstrated the importance of a point of view beyond the Sun-Earth line to significantly improve CME arrival time estimates and in understanding CME structure and trajectories and the longitudinal distribution of SEPs. STEREO was also the first to use one launch vehicle to insert two spacecraft into opposing heliocentric orbits, undergo a 3.5-month-long superior solar conjunction, implement unattended daily science operations on two deep space observatories, maintain 7 arcsec continuous pointing without gyros, and detect and attempt to recover a spacecraft after a 22-month long communications anomaly at a range of 2 AU (Astronomical Units). This paper discusses the significant performance results after the first ten years of operations of the STEREO mission from its journey around the Sun.

Description: No abstract available

Description: We follow two small, magnetically isolated CME-producing solar active regions (ARs) from the time of their emergence until the time that their core regions erupt to produce the CMEs several days later. In both cases, magnetograms show: (a) following an initial period where the poles of the emerging regions separate from each other, the poles then reverse direction and start to retract inward; (b) during the retraction period, flux cancelation occurs along the main neutral line of the regions, (c) this cancelation builds the sheared core field/flux rope that eventually erupts to make the CME. In the two cases, respectively 30% and 50% of the maximum flux of the region cancels prior to the eruption. Recent studies indicate that solar coronal jets frequently result from small-scale filaments eruptions, with those minifilament eruptions also being built up and triggered by cancelation of magnetic flux. Together, the small-AR eruptions here and the coronal jet results suggest that isolated bipolar regions tend to erupt before or when a threshold of roughly 50% of the regions maximum flux has canceled. Our observed erupting filaments/flux ropes form at sites of flux cancelation, in agreement with previous observations. Thus, the recent finding that minifilaments that erupt to form jets also form via flux cancelation is further evidence that minifilaments are small-scale versions of the long-studied full-sized filaments.

Description: No abstract available

Description: We assess whether a formula obtained by Richardson et al. (2014,https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-014-0524-8) relating the peak intensity of 14- to 24-MeV protons in a solar energetic particle (SEP) event at 1 AU to the solar event location and the speed of the associated coronal mass ejection (CME) may be used in a scheme to predict the intensity of an SEP event at any location at this heliocentric distance. Starting with all 334 CMEs in the CCMC/SWRC DONKI database in October 2011 to July 2012, we use the CME speed and direction to predict the proton intensity at Earth and the two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft using this formula. Since most (85%)of these CMEs were not in fact associated with SEP events, many SEP events are predicted that are not actually observed. Such cases may be reduced by considering whether type II or type III radio emissions accompany the CMEs, or by selecting faster, wider CMEs. This method is also applied to predict the SEP intensities associated with 1,100 CMEs observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph during 1997-2006 in solar cycle 23. Various skill scores are calculated, which assess different aspects of the skill of the SEP predictions. We conclude that the Richardson et al. (2014) formula has potential as a simple empirical SEP intensity prediction tool.

Description: No abstract available

Description: Understanding the effects of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) requires knowing if and when they will impact and their properties upon impact. Of particular importance is the strength of a CME's southward magnetic field component (Bz ). Kay et al. (2013, https://doi:10.1088/0004-637X/775/1/5, 2015, https://doi:10.1088/948 0004-637X/805/2/168) have shown that the simplified analytic model Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory (ForeCAT) can reproduce the deflection and rotation of CMEs. Kay, Gopalswamy, Reinard, and Opher (2017, https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/835/2/117) introduced ForeCAT In situ Data Observer, which uses ForeCAT results to simulate magnetic field profiles. ForeCAT In situ Data Observer reproduces the in situ observations on roughly hourly time scales, suggesting that these models could be extremely useful for predictions of Bz . However, as with all models, both models are sensitive to their input parameters, which may not be precisely known for predictions. We explore this sensitivity using ensembles having small changes in the initial latitude, longitude, and orientation of the erupting CME. We explore the effects of different background magnetic field models and find that the changes in deflection and rotation resulting from the uncertainty in the initial parameters tend to exceed the changes from dierent magnetic backgrounds. The range in the in situ proles tends to scale with the range in the deflection and rotation. We also consider a simple arrival time model using ForeCAT results and nd an average absolute error of only 3 hr. We show that an uncertainty in the CME position of 8.1 6.9 leads to variations of 6 hr in the arrival time. This measure depends strongly on the location of impact within the CME with the arrival time changing less for impacts near the nose.

Description: The recalibration of the International Sunspot Number brings new challenges to predictions of Solar Cycle 25. One is that the list of extrema for the original series is no longer usable because the values of all maxima and minima are different for the new version of the sunspot number. Timings of extrema are less sensitive to the recalibration but are a natural result of the calculation. Predictions of Solar Cycle 25 published before 2016 must be converted to the new version of the sunspot number. Any prediction method that looks across the entire time span will have to be reconsidered because values in the nineteenth century were corrected by a larger factor than those in the twentieth century. We report a list of solar maxima and minima values and timings based on the recalibrated sunspot number. Nave forecasts that depend only on the current values of the time series are common in economic studies. Several nave predictions of Solar Cycle 25, the climatological average (180 60), two versions of the inertial forecast, and two versions of the even-odd forecast, are derived from that table. The climatological average forecast is the baseline for more accurate predictions and the initial forecast in assimilative models of the Sun. It also provides the error estimate for Monte Carlo techniques that anticipate the long-term effects on the terrestrial environment. The other four predictions are shown to be statistically insignificant.

Description: This work argues that there are two fundamental states of the non-transient solar wind, and that these can be distinguished by a number of criteria. Here we define the states, which will be termed slow and fast, or SSW and FSW, for lack of better terms, by the level of velocity fluctuations, v, in them, with the slow wind having systematically lower fluctuations than the fast wind. Almost all winds with speeds less than 450 km s1 are in the slow class, and winds with speeds greater than 600 km s1 are fast, but we argue that in between, consistent with other work, the v classification is more fundamental than speed. We show that the fluctuation categorization coincides well with classes based on Alfvnicy, proton specific entropy, ion thermal speed, and ionic composition. This correlated behavior among these solar wind parameters exists regardless of it being associated with a heliospheric current sheet or a pseudostreamer. This work provides evidence that both the so-called SSW I and SSW II scenarios coexist for the SSW formation. In addition, that the dynamical properties (thermal, magnetic, and turbulence properties) correlate well with properties set at the inner corona (ion ionization states and FIP bias)implies that there exists a boundary layer on the Sun within which the SSW is formed. This boundary layer would set up the coronal conditions for the source and transport of the SSW.

Description: We report on observations of magnetic disturbances in active region AR12673 between 1 and 3 September 2017 seen as a disruption of the moat flow several hours before the onset of strong flux emergence near the main sunspot. The moat flow is commonly known as a radially oriented strong outflow of photospheric plasma surrounding sunspots, which ends abruptly and thus shapes an annular pattern around the penumbra. Using highly accurate methods of tracking this photospheric flow applied to Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager data, we are able to describe the evolution of the moat surrounding the main sunspot of AR 12673. We find that several hours before the emergence of strong magnetic flux near the main sunspot, the moat boundaries are broken at these very same locations. This behavior is observed both on 1 and 3 September. There is no such behavior observed in the absence of flux emergence. These observational results pose the question of how often they occur in other active regions and whether the disruption of the moat flow might be, like in this case, an indication of impending enhanced magnetic activity or simply a coincidental event.

Description: The 2012 July 6 X1.1 are at S13W59 and a halo coronal mass ejection (CME) with a space speed of 1900 km s1 were associated with type III and type II radio bursts. The metric-to-decametric type II radio burst extended down to 5 MHz. Simultaneously a slowly drifting feature with a harmonic structure was observed by Wind and STEREO radio receivers around and below 1 MHz, above the strong type III radio burst at lower frequencies. The radio direction finding analysis of this lower-frequency interplanetary (IP) type II radio burst indicates that the radio source was located near the nose and possibly towards the southern flank of the CME-driven shock. These results provide an independent confirmation of the previous suggestions that when the metric and IP type II bursts are overlapping, the lower-frequency IP type II radio burst originates near the shock nose, whereas the source of the higher-frequency metric type II burst is closer to the Sun in the shock flank region. These results further support the idea that the coronal and IP type II bursts are produced by the same CME-driven shock.

Description: Sounding Rocket Experiment CLASP2 (Chromospheric LAyer Spectro-Polarimeter-2): Development of the UV (Ultraviolet) High-Precision Polarization Spectroscopy Device

Description: No abstract available

Description: No abstract available

Description: High-time-resolution in situ wave observations show that Langmuir waves associated with solar type III radio bursts often occur as coherent localized one-dimensional magnetic-field-aligned wave packets with short durations of a few milliseconds and peak intensities well above the strong turbulence thresholds. In this paper, we report observations of a wave packet obtained by the time domain sampler of the STEREO WAVES experiment, which is unique in the sense that it is the most intense wave packet ever detected in association with a solar type III radio burst, with a peak intensity Et 107 mVm(sup-1). We show that this wave packet provides evidence for (1) oscillating two-stream instability (OTSI), (2) a collapsing soliton formed as a result of OTSI, (3) the formation of a soliton-caviton pair, and (4) excitation of second and third harmonic electromagnetic waves. We also show that the peak intensity and spatial width satisfy the threshold condition for this wave packet to be the collapsing Langmuir wave packet formed as a result of nucleation processes even when n(sub b) 〉 n(sub p), where n(sub b) and n(sub p) are the levels of background and ponderomotive-force-induced density fluctuations, respectively. Thus, these observations provide unambiguous evidence for the spatial collapse of Langmuir waves in the source region of a type III radio burst, and the observed spectral evidence for OTSI and the ponderomotive-force-induced density cavity strongly suggest that OTSI is mostly likely responsible for the collapse of the observed wave packet.

Description: At the past three PVSCs, our team has presented recent advances in our space photovoltaic concentrator technology. In the past year, under multiple NASA-funded research and technology development programs, our team has made much additional progress in the advanced development of space photovoltaic concentrators. New robust Fresnel lenses, new high-efficiency multi-junction cells, and new graphene radiators have been developed. The paper will present the latest advances in this technology.

Description: Coronal imaging capabilities of the Solar UltraViolet Imager (SUVI) on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-16 (GOES-16) are investigated. Launched in 2016, GOES-16 is stationed at 75.2 deg W longitude and accommodates both terrestrial and space weather instruments. SUVI is one of two instruments observing the Sun, providing solar images in six extreme ultraviolet (EUV) wavelengths: 94A, 131A, 171A, 195A, 284A and 304A. Mounted on a two axis gimballed Sun Pointed Platform (SPP), its 53 arc minute square field of view is nominally Sun-centered to provide high dynamic range images in all six wavelengths every four minutes. Analyses of on-orbit data indicated that SUVI had sufficient dynamic range and sensitivity in the 171A and 195A wavelengths to image the corona to the largest heights above the Sun to date while simultaneously imaging the Sun. The 1.6 megapixel Charge Coupled Device (CCD) detector enables the capture of the fine features of the corona. On-orbit calibration tests requiring movement of the SUVI line-of-sight off the Sun, demonstrated that the resulting dynamic disturbance didn't adversely impact the earth-pointing instrument performance. Combining these factors, we conducted a test to assess the performance of SUVI as an EUV extremely wide-field coronal imager by off-pointing the SPP around the Sun and synthesizing an image that's about 4 times the diameter of the Sun. The capability to perform coronal imaging at these two wavelengths is demonstrated by off-pointing the SUVI boresight to nine locations around the Sun and generating a composite coronal image that extends to approx. 4 solar radii. For this purpose, we exploited the satellite's ability to provide stable, fine pointing, even during the slews. Various exposure durations were considered during the first trial and a composite coronal image is obtained for each wavelength. The results are promising. The off-pointing locations and the exposure duration are being refined for the subsequent trials. The routine use of an ultraviolet solar imager as both an imager and a EUV coronagraph would be the first of its kind and is an exciting development. The on-orbit solar coronagraphs to date provide white light images with fields of view extending from 4-15 solar radii. Earlier, Seaton, et al investigated the evolution of the corona in EUV near the solar surface with the data from the Sun Watcher with Active Pixels and Image Processing (SWAP) EUV solar telescope on board the Project for On-Board Autonomy 2 (PROBA2). The presence of corona in EUV even to 4 solar radii is not known. The results of these experiments will begin to fill this void.

Description: The Sun exports a continuous outflow of plasma into interplanetary space: the solar wind. The solar wind primarily comprises two components: high- and slow-speed flows. These move with velocities ranging from 200 to 800 km/s depending on the source of the particular flow. As well as its speed, the density, temperature, and even the composition of the solar wind change. Adding to its intrinsic variability, there are embedded transients resulting from flares and coronal mass ejections that further complicate its dynamics and space weather impacts. The solar wind interacts differently with each of the solar system objects it encounters based on their magnetic and atmospheric properties. Even more complex processes occur as the solar wind encounters the interstellar medium, at the outer boundaries of the Sun's domain. The solar wind stretches to beyond 100 au (where 1 au defined to be equal to 149 597 870 700 m) from the Sun, which means that Earth is essentially immersed in the very hot solar atmosphere, and that leads to many space weather impacts on life and society. The specific space weather impacts on Earth will be discussed in detail in the next two papers in this series.

Description: No abstract available

Description: The Genesis mission was the only mission returning pristine solar material to Earth since the Apollo program. Unfortunately, the return of the spacecraft on September 8, 2004 resulted in a crash landing shattering the solar wind collectors into smaller fragments and exposing them to desert soil and other debris. Thorough surface cleaning is required for almost all fragments to allow for subsequent analysis of solar wind material embedded within. However, each collector fragment calls for an individual cleaning approach, as contamination not only varies by collector material but also by sample itself.

Description: No abstract available

Description: In this paper we perform a detailed analysis of how Solar Radiation Pressure (SRP) affects the relative motion of two spacecrafts, the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) and Starshade, orbiting in the vicinity of the Sun-Earth L2. While WFIRST orbits about its own Libration Point Orbit (LPO), Starshade will fly a specific trajectory to align with WFIRST and observe a Design Reference Mission of pre-determined target stars. In this analysis, we focus on the transfer orbit for Starshade from one observation to the other. We will describe how SRP affects the dynamics of the Starshade relative to WFIRSTand how relevant this effect is in order to get an accurate estimate of the total difference in velocity (delta v).

Description: We present solar energetic particle events observed at 1 AU from the Sun for which the proton energy spectra at energies between ~50 keV to ~1 MeV flatten during a period of at least ~12 hours prior to the passage of the associated interplanetary shock. The flattening of the proton energy spectra occurs when the source of the particles (presumably the traveling interplanetary shock) is still downwind from the spacecraft and particle intensities are still continuously increasing. The arrival of the shock at the spacecraft is then characterized by a steepening of the spectra, where low-energy proton intensities show a more pronounced enhancement than the high-energy proton intensities. We discuss the mechanisms that may result in this flattening of the spectra in terms of current models presented in the literature.

Description: Using data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Mars Atmosphere and Voltatile EvolutioN and the European Space Agency Mars Express spacecraft, we show that transient phenomena in the foreshock and solar wind can directly inject energy into the ionosphere of Mars. We demonstrate that the impact of compressive ultralow frequency waves in the solar wind on the induced magnetospheres drive compressional, linearly polarized, magnetosonic ultralow frequency waves in the ionosphere, and a localized electromagnetic "ringing" at the local proton gyro frequency. The pulsations heat and energize Ionospheric plasmas. A preliminary survey of events shows that no special upstream conditions are required in the interplanetary magnetic field or solar wind. Elevated ion densities and temperatures in the solar wind near to Mars are consistent with the presence of an additional population of Martian ions, leading to ion-ion instabilities, associated wave-particle interactions, and heating of the solar wind. The phenomenon was found to be seasonal, occurring when Mars is near perihelion. Finally, we present simultaneous multipoint observations of the phenomenon, with the Mars Express observing the waves upstream, and Mars Atmosphere and Voltatile EvolutioN observing the response in the ionosphere. When these new observations are combined with decades of previous studies, they collectively provide strong evidence for a previously undemonstrated atmospheric loss process at unmagnetized planets: ionospheric escape driven by the direct impact of transient phenomena from the foreshock and solar wind.

Description: In this paper, we present the elliptic-cylindrical analytical flux rope model, which constitutes the first level of complexity above that of a circular-cylindrical geometry. The framework of this series of models was established by Nieves-Chinchilla et al. with the circular-cylindrical analytical flux rope model. The model describes the magnetic flux rope topology with distorted cross section as a possible consequence of the flux rope interaction with the solar wind. In this model, for the first time, a flux rope is completely described by a nonorthogonal geometry. The Maxwell equations can be consistently solved using tensorial analysis, and relevant physical quantities can be derived, such as magnetic fluxes, number of turns, or Lorentz force distribution. The model is generalized in termsof the radial dependence of the poloidal and axial current density components. The circular-cylindrical reconstruction technique has been adapted to the new geometry for a specific case of the model and tested againstan interplanetary coronal mass ejection observed by the Wind spacecraft on 2005 June 12. In this specific case,from the comparative analysis between the circular-cylindrical and elliptic-cylindrical models, the inclusion ofthe cross-section distortion in the 3D reconstruction results in significant changes in the derived axis orientation,size, central magnetic field, magnetic fluxes, and force-freeness. The case studied in this paper exemplifies the useof the model and reconstruction technique developed. Furthermore, the novel mathematical formulation to modelflux ropes in heliophysics paves the way to the inclusion of more complex magnetic field configurations.

Description: We have cataloged 196 filament oscillations from the Global Oscillation Network Group H network data during several months near the maximum of solar cycle 24 (2014 JanuaryJune). Selected examples from the catalog are described in detail, along with our statistical analyses of all events. Oscillations were classified according to their velocity amplitude: 106 small-amplitude oscillations (SAOs), with velocities 〈10 km s-1, and 90 large-amplitude oscillations (LAOs), with velocities 〉10 km s-1. Both SAOs and LAOs are common, with one event of each class every two days on the visible side of the Sun. For nearly half of the events, we identified their apparent trigger. The period distribution has a mean value of 58 15 minutes for both types of oscillations. The distribution of the damping time per period peaks at /P = 1.75 and 1.25 for SAOs and LAOs, respectively. We confirmed that LAO damping rates depend nonlinearly on the oscillation velocity. The angle between the direction of motion and the filament spine has a distribution centered at 27 for all filament types. This angle agrees with the observed direction of filament-channel magnetic fields, indicating that most of the cataloged events are longitudinal (i.e., undergo field-aligned motions). We applied seismology to determine the average radius of curvature in the magnetic dips, R 89 Mm, and the average minimum magnetic field strength, B 16 G. The catalog is available to the community online and is intended to be expanded to cover at least 1 solar cycle.

Description: As solar activity steadily declined toward the cycle 24 minimum in the early months of 2017, the expectation for major solar energetic particle (SEP) events diminished with the sunspot number. It was thus surprising (though not unprecedented) when a new, potentially significant active region rotated around the East limb in early July that by midmonth was producing a series of coronal eruptions, reaching a crescendo around 23 July. This series, apparently associated with the birth of a growing pseudostreamer, produced the largest SEP event(s) seen since the solar maximum years. Activity abated with the decay of the active region, but a second episode of magnetic flux emergence in the same area in early September initiated a new round of eruptions. The western longitude of the erupting region, together with its similar coronal setting in both cases, resulted in a set of nearly homologous multipoint SEP event periods at Earth, Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-A and Mars (Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN) for July and September 2017. We use a combination of WSA-ENLIL-cone heliospheric simulation results, together with SEPMOD SEP event modeling, to illustrate how the event similarities at the three observer sites can be understood from their relative positions and their connectivities to the generated interplanetary shocks.

Description: We present the results of 1D hydrodynamic simulations of coronal loops that are subject to nanoflares, caused by either in situ thermal heating or nonthermal electron (NTE) beams. The synthesized intensity and Doppler shifts can be directly compared with Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) and Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) observations of rapid variability in the transition region (TR) of coronal loops, associated with transient coronal heating. We find that NTEs with high enough low-energy cutoff (EC) deposit energy in the lower TR and chromosphere, causing blueshifts (up to approximately 20 kilometers per second) in the IRIS Si IV lines, which thermal conduction cannot reproduce. The EC threshold value for the blueshifts depends on the total energy of the events (approximately 5 kiloelectronvolts for 1024 ergs, up to 15 kiloelectronvolts for 1025 ergs). The observed footpoint emission intensity and flows, combined with the simulations, can provide constraints on both the energy of the heating event and EC. The response of the loop plasma to nanoflares depends crucially on the electron density: significant Si IV intensity enhancements and flows are observed only for initially low-density loops (less than 10 (sup 9) per cubic centimeter). This provides a possible explanation of the relative scarcity of observations of significant moss variability. While the TR response to single heating episodes can be clearly observed, the predicted coronal emission (AIA 94 Angstroms) for single strands is below current detectability and can only be observed when several strands are heated closely in time. Finally, we show that the analysis of the IRIS Mg II chromospheric lines can help further constrain the properties of the heating mechanisms.

Description: No abstract available

Description: Coronal imaging capabilities of the Solar UltraViolet Imager (SUVI) on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-16 (GOES-16) are investigated. Launched in 2016, GOES-16 is stationed at 75.2 deg W longitude and accommodates both terrestrial and space weather instruments. SUVI is one of two instruments observing the Sun, providing solar images in six extreme ultraviolet (EUV) wavelengths: 94A, 131A, 171A, 195A, 284A and 304A. Mounted on a two axis gimballed Sun Pointed Platform (SPP), its 53 arcminute square field of view is nominally Sun-centered to provide high dynamic range images in all six wavelengths every four minutes. Analyses of on-orbit data indicated that SUVI had sufficient dynamic range and sensitivity in the 171A and 195A wavelengths to image the corona to the largest heights above the Sun to date while simultaneously imaging the Sun. The 1.6 megapixel Charge Coupled Device (CCD) detector enables the capture of the fine features of the corona. On-orbit calibration tests requiring movement of the SUVI line-of-sight off the Sun, demonstrated that the resulting dynamic disturbance didn't adversely impact the earth-pointing instrument performance. Combining these factors, we conducted a test to assess the performance of SUVI as an EUV extremely wide-field coronal imager by off-pointing the SPP around the Sun and synthesizing an image that's about 4 times the diameter of the Sun. The capability to perform coronal imaging at these two wavelengths is demonstrated by off-pointing the SUVI boresight to nine locations around the Sun and generating a composite coronal image that extends to approx. 4 solar radii. For this purpose, we exploited the satellite's ability to provide stable, fine pointing, even during the slews. Various exposure durations were considered during the first trial and a composite coronal image is obtained for each wavelength. The results are promising. The off-pointing locations and the exposure duration are being refined for the subsequent trials. The routine use of an ultraviolet solar imager as both an imager and a EUV coronagraph would be the first of its kind and is an exciting development. The on-orbit solar coronagraphs to date provide white light images with fields of view extending from 4-15 solar radii. Earlier, Seaton, et al investigated the evolution of the corona in EUV near the solar surface with the data from the Sun Watcher with Active Pixels and Image Processing (SWAP) EUV solar telescope on board the Project for On-Board Autonomy 2 (PROBA2). The presence of corona in EUV even to 4 solar radii is not known. The results of these experiments will begin to fill this void.

Description: To unveil the complexity of the solar atmosphere, measurement of the magnetic field in the upper chromosphere and transition region is fundamentally important, as this is where the forces transition from plasma to magnetic field dominated. Measurements of the field are also needed to elucidate the energy transport from the lower atmospheric regions to the corona beyond. Such an advance in heliospheric knowledge became possible with the first flight of the international solar sounding rocket mission, CLASP. For the first time, linear polarization was measured in Hydrogen Lyman-Alpha at 121.60 nm in September 2015. For linear polarization measurements in this emission line, high sensitivity is required due to the relatively weak polarization signal compared to the intensity. To achieve this high sensitivity, a low-noise sensor is required with good knowledge of its characterization, including linearity. This work presents further refinement of the linearity characterization of the cameras flown in 2015. We compared the current from a photodiode in the light path to the digital response of the detectors. Pre-flight CCD linearity measurements were taken for all three flight cameras and calculations of the linear fits and residuals were performed. However, the previous calculations included a smearing pattern and a digital saturation region on the detectors which were not properly taken into account. The calculations have been adjusted and were repeated for manually chosen sub-regions on the detectors that were found not to be affected. We present a brief overview of the instrument, the calibration data and procedures, and a comparison of the old and new linearity results. The CLASP cameras will be reused for the successor mission, CLASP2, which will measure the Magnesium II h & k emission lines between 279.45 nm and 280.35 nm. The new approach will help to better prepare for and to improve the camera characterization for CLASP2.

Description: We present high resolution (0.2) high cadence (5s) extreme ultraviolet (EUV) observations of small-scale jetlet-like features and spicule-like features observed with NASAs High-resolution Coronal Imager2.1 (Hi-C) during its 5min observing span. We investigate the magnetic setting of 4 on-disk jetlets and 2 on-disk spicules by using high resolution 172A images from Hi-C and EUV images from Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and line-of-sight magnetograms from SDO/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI). The jetlets and spicules are at edges of magnetic network lanes. From magnetograms co-aligned with the Hi-C and AIA images, we find that the jetlets stem from sites of likely flux cancelation between merging majority-polarity and weaker minority-polarity flux, but in contrast to larger jetlets observed by IRIS some do not show obvious enhanced brightenings at their base. Based on the similarity of these observations of approx. 4 obvious Hi-C small jetlets with our previous observations of 10 IRIS larger jetlets and approx. 30 coronal jets in quiet regions and coronal holes, we infer that flux cancelation is probably the essential process in the buildup and triggering of jetlets. Our observations suggest that network jetlet eruptions, large and small, are small-scale analogs of both larger-scale coronal jet eruptions and the still-larger-scale eruptions that makemajor CMEs. For simplicitywe will use termjetlets for jetlet-like features and spicules for spicule-like features.

Description: Energetic processes often produce transversely-heated angular distributions of the magnetized core (lowest energy) plasma. This characteristic is found in solar wind ion pickup, resulting from cometary or interstellar gas ionization, in Earths' ionosphere, and with hot ions formed around the Space Transportation System during gas releases. We investigate the thermalization of O+ ion pickup using the 2.5D hybrid simulation method (with fluid electrons and kinetic ions) of the ion pickup (ring) distributions, formed in the auroral ionosphere, with a range of ring velocities and thermal to magnetic pressure ratios. We find that in the unstable collisonless regime the anisotropy of the non-thermal distribution produces the ion-cyclotron instability, and the nonlinear relaxation is accompanied by wave-particle scattering that results in an emitted power of EMIC waves. We conclude that ionospheric pickup thermalization is slow due to the small ring speed compared to the thermal and Alfven speeds, while in the solar wind and other space plasmas regions with larger ion-ring velocity the collisionless relaxation and thermalization is rapid in terms of O+ ion gyro-period.

Description: Solar filaments exhibit a global chirality pattern where dextral/sinistral filaments, corresponding to negative/ positive magnetic helicity, are dominant in the northern/southern hemisphere. This pattern is opposite to the sign of magnetic helicity injected by differential rotation along eastwest oriented polarity inversion lines, posing a major conundrum for solar physics. A resolution of this problem is offered by the magnetic helicity-condensation model of Antiochos. To investigate the global consequences of helicity condensation for the hemispheric chirality pattern, we apply a temporally and spatially averaged statistical approximation of helicity condensation. Realistic magnetic field configurations in both the rising and declining phases of the solar cycle are simulated. For the helicity-condensation process, we assume convective cells consisting of positive/negative vorticities in the northern/southern hemisphere that inject negative/positive helicity. The magnitude of the vorticity is varied as a free parameter, corresponding to different rates of helicity injection. To reproduce the observed percentages of dominant and minority filament chiralities, we find that a vorticity of magnitude 2.5 x 10(exp 6)/s is required. This rate, however, is insufficient to produce the observed unimodal profile of chirality with latitude. To achieve this, a vorticity of at least 5 x 10(exp 6)/s is needed. Our results place a lower limit on the small-scale helicity injection required to dominate differential rotation and reproduce the observed hemispheric pattern. Future studies should aim to establish whether the helicity injection rate due to convective flows and/or flux emergence across all latitudes of the Sun is consistent with our results.

Description: The Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe (IMAP) is a revolutionary mission that simultaneously investigates two of the most important overarching issues in Heliophysics today: the acceleration of energetic particles and interaction of the solar wind with the local interstellar medium. While seemingly disparate, these are intimately coupled because particles accelerated in the inner heliosphere play critical roles in the outer heliospheric interaction. Selected by NASA in 2018, IMAP is planned to launch in 2024. The IMAP spacecraft is a simple sun-pointed spinner in orbit about the Sun-Earth L1 point. IMAP's ten instruments provide a complete and synergistic set of observations to simultaneously dissect the particle injection and acceleration processes at 1 AU while remotely probing the global heliospheric interaction and its response to particle populations generated by these processes. In situ at 1 AU, IMAP provides detailed observations of solar wind electrons and ions; suprathermal, pickup, and energetic ions; and the interplanetary magnetic field. For the outer heliosphere interaction, IMAP provides advanced global observations of the remote plasma and energetic ions over a broad energy range via energetic neutral atom imaging, and precise observations of interstellar neutral atoms penetrating the heliosphere. Complementary observations of interstellar dust and the ultraviolet glow of interstellar neutrals further deepen the physical understanding from IMAP. IMAP also continuously broadcasts vital real-time space weather observations. Finally, IMAP engages the broader Heliophysics community through a variety of innovative opportunities. This papersummarizes the IMAP mission at the start of Phase A development.

Description: A Solar Dynamo (SODA) Index prediction of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 is described. The SODA Index combines values of the solar polar magnetic field and the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm to create a precursor of future solar activity. The result is an envelope of solar activity that minimizes the 11-year period of the sunspot cycle. We show that the variation in time of the SODA Index is similar to several wavelet transforms of the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm. Polar field predictions for Solar Cycles 21 24 are used to show the success of the polar field precursor in previous sunspot cycles. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycles smoothed peak activity will be about 140 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a Version 2 sunspot number of 135 25. This suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will be comparable to Solar Cycle 24. The estimated peak is expected to occur near 2025.2 1.5 year. Because the current approach uses data prior to solar minimum, these estimates may improve as the upcoming solar minimum draws closer.

Description: We present quantitative evidence that interplanetary type II radio bursts and sustained gamma-ray emission (SGRE) events from the Sun are closely related. Out of about 30 SGRE events reported in Share et al. we consider 13 events that had a duration exceeding 5 hr to exclude any are-impulsive phase gamma-rays. The SGRE duration also has a linear relation with the ending frequency of the bursts. The synchronism between the ending times of SGRE and the type II emission strongly supports the idea that the same shock accelerates electrons to produce type II bursts and protons (〉300 MeV) that propagate from the shock to the solar surface to produce SGRE via pion decay. The acceleration of high-energy particles is confirmed by the associated solar energetic particle (SEP) events detected at Earth and/or at the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft. Furthermore, the presence of 〉300 MeV protons is corroborated by the fact that the underlying coronal mass ejections (CMEs) had properties identical to those associated with ground-level enhancement events: they had speeds of 〉2000 km s1 and all were full-halo CMEs. Many SEP events did not have detectable flux at Earth in the 〉300 MeV energy channels, presumably because of poor magnetic connectivity.

Description: Measurements of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) by multiple spacecraft at small radial separations but larger longitudinal separations is one of the ways to learn about the three-dimensional structure of CMEs. Here, we take advantage of the orbit of the Wind spacecraft that ventured to distances of up to 0.012 au from the Sun-Earth line during 2000-2002. Combined with measurements from the Advanced Composition Experiment, which is in a tight halo orbit around L1, the multipoint measurements allow us to investigate how the magnetic field inside magnetic ejecta (MEs) changes on scales of 0.005-0.012 au. We identify 21 CMEs measured by these two spacecraft for longitudinal separations of 0.007 au or more. We find that the time-shifted correlation between 30 minute averages of the non-radial magnetic field components measured at the two spacecraft is systematically above 0.97 when the separation is 0.008 au or less, but is on average 0.89 for greater separations. Overall, these newly analyzed measurements, combined with 14 additional ones when the spacecraft separation is smaller, point toward a scale length of longitudinal magnetic coherence inside MEs of 0.25-0.35 au for the magnitude of the magnetic field, but 0.06-0.12 au for the magnetic field components. This finding raises questions about the very nature of MEs. It also highlights the need for additional "mesoscale" multipoint measurements of CMEs with longitudinal separations of 0.01-0.2 au.

Description: No abstract available

Description: High-resolution particle and wave measurements taken during an oblique bow shock crossing by the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission are analyzed. Two regions of differing magnetic behavior are identified within the shock, one with active magnetic fluctuations and one with laminar interplanetary magnetic field topology. A prominent reflected ion population is observed in both regions. The active magnetic region is characterized by large-amplitude (〉100 mV/m) electrostatic solitary waves, electron Bernstein waves, and ion acoustic waves, along with intermittent current activity and localized electron heating. In the region of laminar magnetic field, ion acoustic waves are prominently observed. Solar wind ion deceleration is observed in both regions of active and laminar magnetic field. All observations suggest that solar wind deceleration can occur as a result of multiple independent processes, in this case current and ion-ion instabilities.

Description: It has long been known that studying connection between solar flares and properties of magnetic field in active regions is very important for understanding the flare physics and developing space weather forecasts. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO/HMI) obtains tremendous amounts of magnetic field data products. However the operational NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) forecasts of solar flares still represent prediction probabilities issued by the experts. In this research we investigate the possibilities to enhance the daily operational flare forecasts performed at the SWPC by developing a synergy of the expert predictions and physics-based criteria, and by employing machine-learning methods. Among the physics-based criteria we consider the descriptors of the Polarity Inversion Line (PIL) and Space weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP), and derive from them daily characteristics of the entire Sun. We also consider the daily descriptors of the GOES Soft X-Ray (SXR) 1-8 Angstroms flux such as the flare history of the previous days and averaged X-Ray flux. We estimate the effectiveness in separation of flaring and non-flaring cases for each characteristic, as well as for the expert prediction probabilities, and find that some PIL, SHARP and SXR descriptors are as effective as the expert prediction probabilities and should be considered to issue the flare forecast. Finally, we train and test several Machine-Learning classification algorithms (Support Vector Classifiers with various kernel functions, k-Nearest Neighbor Classifier, Random Forest Classifier, and Neural Networks) using the most effective descriptors and expert prediction probabilities, and compare the obtained predictions with the current SWPC forecasts.

Description: The helioseismic analysis of torsional oscillations of the Sun, obtained in 1996-2018 from SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) and SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory), reveals the spatio-temporal dynamics associated with the dynamo process. The data reveal new relationships between the migrating magnetic field patterns observed in synoptic magnetograms and the dynamics of torsional oscillations near the surface and in the interior. In particular, it is found that the evolution of torsional oscillations in the deep convection zone is ahead of the surface magnetic evolution by several years, and that it is related to the extended solar cycle phenomenon previously observed in the solar corona. The data show substantial differences in the torsional oscillation properties between Cycles 23 and 24 indicating fundamental changes in the dynamo regime, and also reveal initiation of Cycle 25. The helioseismology observations of the torsional oscillations open new perspectives for understanding the global dynamo processes inside the Sun, and for predicting the next solar cycle.

Description: Observations of the complex highly non-linear dynamics of global turbulent flows and magnetic fields are currently available only from Earth-side observations. Recent progress in helioseismology has provided us some additional information about the subsurface dynamics, but its relation to the magnetic field evolution is not yet understood. These limitations cause uncertainties that are difficult take into account, and perform proper calibration of dynamo models. The current dynamo models have also uncertainties due to the complicated turbulent physics of magnetic field generation, transport and dissipation. Because of the uncertainties in both observations and theory, the data assimilation approach is natural way for the solar cycle prediction and estimating uncertainties of this prediction. I will discuss the prediction results for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 and their uncertainties and affect of Ensemble Kalman Filter parameters to resulting predictions.

Description: No abstract available

Description: We analyze and discuss an example of prominence barbs observed on the limb on 2016 January 7 by the Hinode/Solar Optical Telescope in Ca II and H alpha, the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph, with slit jaw images and Mg II spectral data, and the Solar Dynamics Observatory's Atmospheric Imaging Assembly. In the recent literature there has been a debate concerning whether these features, sometimes referred to as "tornadoes," are rotating. Our data analysis provides no evidence for systematic rotation in the barbs. We do find line-of-sight motions in the barbs that vary with location and time. We also discuss observations of features moving along the barbs. These moving features are elongated parallel to the solar limb and tend to come in clusters of features moving along the same or similar paths in the plane of the sky during a period of 10 minutes to an hour, moving toward or away from the limb. The motion may have a component along the line of sight as well. The spectral data indicate that the features are Doppler shifted. We discuss possible explanations for these features.

Description: We follow two small, magnetically isolated CME-producing solar active regions (ARs) from the time of their emergence until several days later, when their core regions erupt to produce the CMEs. In both cases, magnetograms show: (a) following an initial period where the poles of the emerging regions separate from each other, the poles then reverse direction and start to retract inward; (b) during the retraction period, flux cancelation occurs along the main neutral line of the regions, (c) this cancelation builds the sheared core field/flux rope that eventually erupts to make the CME. In the two cases, respectively 30% and 50% of the maximum flux of the region cancels prior to the eruption. Recent studies indicate that solar coronal jets frequently result from small-scale filaments eruptions, with those "minifilament" eruptions also being built up and triggered by cancelation of magnetic flux. Together, the small-AR eruptions here and the coronal jet results suggest that isolated bipolar regions tend to erupt when some threshold fraction, perhaps in the range of 50%, of the region's maximum flux has canceled. Our observed erupting filaments/flux ropes form at sites of flux cancelation, in agreement with previous observations. Thus, the recent finding that minifilaments that erupt to form jets also form via flux cancelation is further evidence that minifilaments are small-scale versions of the long-studied full-sized filaments.

Description: Electron heating at Earth's quasiperpendicular bow shock has been surmised to be due to the combined effects of a quasistatic electric potential and scattering through wave-particle interaction. Here we report the observation of electron distribution functions indicating a new electron heating process occurring at the leading edge of the shock front. Incident solar wind electrons are accelerated parallel to the magnetic field toward downstream, reaching an electron-ion relative drift speed exceeding the electron thermal speed. The bulk acceleration is associated with an electric field pulse embedded in a whistler-mode wave. The high electron-ion relative drift is relaxed primarily through a nonlinear current-driven instability. The relaxed distributions contain a beam traveling toward the shock as a remnant of the accelerated electrons. Similar distribution functions prevail throughout the shock transition layer, suggesting that the observedacceleration and thermalization is essential to the cross-shock electron heating.

Description: Jets of all sizes are frequent magnetically channeled narrow eruptions. They occur in various solar environments: quiet regions, coronal holes and active regions. All coronal jets observed in UV, EUV and X-ray images show a bright spire with a base brightening, also known as jet bright point (JBP). Recent studies show that coronal jets are driven by small-scale filament eruptions. We found in on disk quiet regions and coronal holes that coronal jets originate at a neutral line between dominant-polarity flux and a patch of canceling minority-polarity flux.

Description: The discovery of long-lived electrostatic coherent structures with large-amplitude electric fields (1 less than or equal to E less than or equal to 500 mV/m) by the Van Allen Probes has revealed alternative routes through which planetary radiation belts' acceleration can take place. Following previous reports showing that small phase-space holes, with q(phi)/T (exp c)(sub e) approximately minus 10 (exp -2) - 10 (exp -3), could result from electron interaction with large-amplitude whistlers, we demonstrate one possible mechanism through which holes can grow nonlinearly (i.e., Gamma alpha square root of phi) and subcritically as a result of momentum exchange between hot and cold electron populations. Our results provide an explanation for the common occurrence and fast growth of large-amplitude electron phase-space holes in the Earth's radiation belts.

Description: The study of multiscale pickup ion phase-mixing in the lunar plasma wake with a hybrid model is the main subject of our investigation in this paper. Photoionization and charge exchange of protons with the lunar exosphere are the ionization processes included in our model. The computational model includes the self-consistent dynamics of the light (hydrogen ions or hydrogen molecule ion or helium ion), and heavy (sodium ion ) pickup ions. The electrons are considered as a fluid. The lunar interior is considered as a weakly conducting body. In this paper we considered for the first time the cumulative effect of heavy neutrals in the lunar exosphere (e.g., Aluminum, Argon), an effect which was simulated with one species of sodium ion but with a tenfold increase in total production rates. We find that various species produce various types of plasma tail in the lunar plasma wake. Specifically, sodium ion and helium ion pickup ions form a cycloid-like tail, whereas the hydrogen ion or hydrogen molecule ion pickup ions form a tail with a high density core and saw-like periodic structures in the flank region. The length of these structures varies from 1:5 R(sub M) to 3:3 R(sub M) depending on the value of gyro radius for hydrogen ion or hydrogen molecule ion pickup ions. The light pickup ions produce more symmetrical jump in the density and magnetic field at the Mach cone which is mainly controlled by the conductivity of the interior, an effect previously unappreciated. Although other pickup ion species had little effect on the nature of the interaction of the Moon with the solar wind, the global structure of the lunar tail in these simulations appeared quite different when the hydrogen molecule ion production rate was high.

Description: No abstract available

Description: No abstract available

Description: Seven different models are applied to the same problem of simulating the Sun's coronal magnetic field during the solar eclipse on 2015 March 20. All of the models are non-potential, allowing for free magnetic energy, but the associated electric currents are developed in significantly different ways. This is not a direct comparison of the coronal modelling techniques, in that the different models also use different photospheric boundary conditions, reflecting the range of approaches currently used in the community. Despite the significant differences, the results show broad agreement in the overall magnetic topology. Among those models with significant volume currents in much of the corona, there is general agreement that the ratio of total to potential magnetic energy should be approximately 1.4. However, there are significant differences in the electric current distributions; while static extrapolations are best able to reproduce active regions, they are unable to recover sheared magnetic fields in filament channels using currently available vector magnetogram data. By contrast, time-evolving simulations can recover the filament channel fields at the expense of not matching the observed vector magnetic fields within active regions. We suggest that, at present, the best approach may be a hybrid model using static extrapolations but with additional energization informed by simplified evolution models. This is demonstrated by one of the models.

Description: It has been observationally well established that the magnetic configurations most favorable for producing energetic flaring events reside in delta-spots, a class of sunspots dened as having opposite polarity umbrae sharing a common penumbra. They are frequently characterized by extreme compactness,strong rotation and anti-Hale orientation. Numerous studies have shown that nearly all of the largest solar ares originate in delta-spots, making the understanding of these structures a fundamental step in predicting space weather. Despite their important influence on the space environment, surprisingly little is understood about the origin and behavior of delta-spots. In this paper, we perform a systematic study of the behavior of emerging flux ropes to test a theoretical model for the formation of delta-spots: the kink instability of emerging flux ropes. We simulated the emergence of highly twisted,kink-unstable flux ropes from the convection zone into the corona, and compared their photospheric properties to those of emerged weakly twisted, kink-stable flux ropes. We show that the photospheric manifestations of the emergence of highly twisted flux ropes closely match the observed properties of delta-spots, and we discuss the resulting implications for observations. Our results strongly support and extend previous theoretical work that suggested that the kink instability of emerging flux ropes is a promising candidate to explain delta-spot formation, as it reproduces their key characteristics very well.

Description: We use microwave imaging observations from the Nobeyama Radioheliograph at 17 GHz for long-term studies of solar activity. In particular, we use the polar and low-latitude brightness temperatures as proxies to the polar magnetic field and the active-regions, respectively. We also use the location of prominence eruptions as a proxy to the filament locations as a function of time. We show that the polar microwave brightness temperature is highly correlated with the polar magnetic field strength and the fast solar wind speed. We also show that the polar microwave brightness at one cycle is correlated with the low latitude brightness with a lag of about half a solar cycle. We use this correlation to predict the strength of the solar cycle: the smoothed sunspot numbers in the southern and northern hemispheres can be predicted as 89 and 59, respectively. These values indicate that cycle 25 will not be too different from cycle 24 in its strength. We also combined the rush to the pole data from Nobeyama prominences with historical data going back to 1860 to study the north-south asymmetry of sign reversal at solar poles. We find that the reversal asymmetry has a quasi-periodicity of 3-5 cycles.

Description: The fundamental motivation of the project is that the scientific output of solar research can be greatly enhanced by better exploitation of the existing solar/heliosphere space-data products jointly with ground-based observations. Our primary focus is on developing a specific innovative methodology based on recent advances in "big data" intelligent databases applied to the growing amount of high-spatial and multi-wavelength resolution, high-cadence data from NASA's missions and supporting ground-based observatories. Our flare database is not simply a manually searchable time-based catalog of events or list of web links pointing to data. It is a preprocessed metadata repository enabling fast search and automatic identification of all recorded flares sharing a specifiable set of characteristics, features, and parameters. The result is a new and unique database of solar flares and data search and classification tools for the Heliophysics community, enabling multi-instrument/multi-wavelength investigations of flare physics and supporting further development of flare-prediction methodologies.

Description: The high-energy protons from solar energetic particle (SEP) events present a hazard to space systems: damage to science instruments/electronics/materials or to astronauts. A reliable estimate of the high-energy proton environment is critical to assure mission success. Important characteristics of an SEP event are fluence, peak flux, energy spectrum, time to reach the peak flux, time to reach peak dose, and properties of the cumulative dose profile after an event starts. All of these characteristics are important to understand in order to design space missions properly for both robotic and human missions. Because of the unpredictable and sporadic nature of SEP events, statistical models are often used to represent the SEP parameters described above. In a study by Jun et al. (2007), the statistics of event fluences, durations, and time intervals between events were investigated using the then available historical SEP dataset obtained from the instruments onboard the IMP-8 spacecraft. Since then, a more comprehensive SEP dataset based off of IMP-8 and GOES called Reference Data Set Version 2.0 (RDSv2.0) has become available covering the SEP events up to Year 2015 under a framework of the European Space Agency's (ESA's) Solar Energetic Particle Environment Modelling (SEPEM) project (Jiggens et al., 2018). The main objectives of this statistical study of SEP events are two-fold: First, the statistics of peak fluxes, event fluences, durations, and time intervals will be re-visited by using RDSv2.0; Second, the statistical analyses of flux and dose timing will be performed using the same dataset RDSv2.0. The results of this study will address the statistical properties of all key parameters for designing a spacecraft or a human mission where the SEP environment is an important consideration.

Description: A spectrum of the four-decade solar irradiance record has a prominent cluster of power for periodicities near 1 yr. Correlating irradiance with a bandpass filter showed that periodicity values were not constant, but varied sinusoidally with each cycle lasting 14 1 yr. The large modulation amplitude makes solar frequencies 1 yr(exp 1) hard to detect at the solar surface. After removing the modulation, a LombScargle spectrum exposed two true periodicities: 1.006 and 0.920 yr. They are interpreted as the synodic rotation periods of r modes of lowest angular degree ( = 1). The first propagates in the stable interior and the second in the convective envelope perturbed by its several flow fields. The rotational beat period of the two modes is about 10.9 yr. This is close to the average length of a solar cycle and possibly controls this average. The 1.006 yr periodicity dominates most of the filtered irradiance record but an abrupt change to about 0.8 yr occurs in mid-2010. Also found was evidence for higher-degree r modes ( = 2 to 8) and a curious sawtooth modulation with a recurrence period of 2.6 yr.

Description: Aims. Our main aim is to study the relationship between low-energy solar particles (energies below 1 MeV) and very narrow coronal mass ejections (jets with angular width 20). Methods. For this purpose, we considered 125 very narrow coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from 1999 to 2003 that are potentially associated with low-energy solar particles (LESPs). These events were chosen on the basis of their source location. We studied only very narrow CMEs at the western limb, which are expected to have good magnetic connectivity with Earth. Results. We found 24 very narrow CMEs associated with energetic particles such as ions (protons and 3He), electrons, or both. We show that arrival times at Earth of energetic particles are consistent with onset times of the respective CMEs, and that in the same time intervals, there are no other potential sources of energetic particles. We also demonstrate statistical differences for the angular width distributions using the KolmogorovSmirnov test for angular widths for these 24 events. We consider a coherent sample of jets (mostly originating from boundaries of coronal holes) to identify properties of events that produce solar energetic particles (velocities, widths, and position angles). Our study presents a new approach and result: very narrow CMEs can generate low-energy particles in the vicinity of Earth without other activity on the Sun. The results could be very useful for space weather forecasting.

Description: Nonmigrating tides excited in the tropical troposphere by latent heat release from deep convection are known to be responsible for introducing the longitudinal structures in the upper atmosphere and the ionosphere. This study presents for the first time an extensive analysis of the prominent wave-3 and wave-4 longitudinal structures using nearly 14 years of temperature observations by the Microwave Limb Sounder instrument operated on the Aura satellite from 2004 to 2017. The observations reveal significant intraseasonal (~30-60 days) periodic variations in the amplitudes of these wave structures at ~97-km altitude near the mesopause. Some large wave amplitudes accompany strong activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Rainfall data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission are used as a proxy of latent heating to investigate the source of these variations. Intraseasonal signatures in the wave structures are observed to coincide with the rainfall variations, indicating that the tropospheric 30- to 60- day oscillation is an important driver of the same periodic changes in the upper atmosphere. Given that not all intraseasonal oscillations in the lower atmosphere have corresponding signatures in the longitudinal wave structures, the atmospheric conditions and other influences are important. This study provides evidence on the connection between intraseasonal variations of tides in the upper atmosphere and the changes in the forcing by latent heat release in the troposphere.

Description: Earth's magnetosphere is a large magnetic cavity formed through the interaction of the solar wind and Earth's intrinsic magnetic field. Solar wind energy enters this cavity through a boundary - the magnetopause - separating Earth's field from the solar wind. This energy leads to many forms of "space weather", including the aurora, geomagnetic storms, and energization of the Van Allen radiation belts. Despite decades of research, we still do not understand the extent of dayside reconnection sites, nor do we have a quantifiable understanding of how much energy enters the magnetosphere during different solar wind conditions - necessary for space weather prediction. On the nightside, impulsive flows at various spatial and temporal scales occur frequently during storms and substorms, and couple to the ionosphere through still unresolved physical mechanisms. Because the magnetosphere is so large, it has been understood since the dawn of the space age that a full understanding of this complex region could only be achieved with a large fleet of in situ spacecraft. NASA has studied one such constellation, the socalled "Magnetospheric Constellation" (MagCon), since the1990's, but it is deemed too expensive to implement using traditional approaches. The CubeSat/ SmallSat revolution represents a fundamental disruption to traditional mission architectures, and in this paper I will discuss how, by leveraging innovation in spacecraft subystems, advanced manufacturing, and access to space, we can finally realize this long-term vision of exploration and discovery. The proposed modular approach, utilizing rideshare and propulsive ESPAs, would also enable worldwide participation in the mission, and is applicable to any constellation mission, including Earth Science missions.

Description: No abstract available

Description: The third flight of the High-resolution Coronal Imager (Hi-C 2.1) occurred on May 29, 2018, with significant co-observations with both space and ground based instruments, including the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS). The primary science goal of this flight was to identify the connections between the lower corona, transition region, and chromosphere at the native resolution of these connections. One way to relate the emission in these two instruments that image different temperature regimes is to compare the morphology, dynamics and time scales in each data set. In this poster, we present the initial results of this study.

Description: Coronal jets are transient thin bursts of magnetically channeled solar material from the surface into the corona. They are brightest at their base, with a bright point (jet bright point, JBP) at an edge of the base. Early studies (Shibata et al. 1992) suggested that jets result from magnetic flux emergence: a small bipole emerges into unipolar ambient field, driving the jet and forming the JBP via interchange reconnection. More recent studies, using higher-cadence, higher-resolution, and broader wavelength coverage than before, show that prominent coronal jets are usually driven by a minifialment eruption (Sterling et al. 2015), and that, rather than flux emergence, flux cancelation usually prepares and triggers the eruption (Panesar et al. 2016). Here, we analyzed eight emerging flux regions to determine whether the emerging flux directly drove any coronal jets. We used EUV images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) (in 304, 171, 211, 193, and 94 channels), and magnetograms from SDO/Helioseismic & Magnetic Imager (HMI). All eight regions produced jet-like features that were weak in intensity (faint jets), by which we mean they were so faint that we likely would not have identified them as jets had we initially searched for jets in AIA movies alone (as in, e.g., Panesar et al. 2016, Moore et al. 2013) without knowing whether the base was an emerging bipole. In seven of the eight regions, all jets (faint or prominent) erupted from locations where one leg of the emerging bipole was evidently canceling with an ambient opposite-polarity flux clump. The eighth case, the one that had the fastest flux emergence, possibly made faint jets by the flux-emergence mechanism, but these too might instead have resulted from flux cancelation.

Description: Solar coronal jets are small, transient, collimated ejections most easily observed in coronal holes (CHs). The upcoming Parker Solar Probe (PSP) mission provides the first opportunity to encounter CH jets in situ near the Sun and examine their internal structure and dynamics. Using projected mission orbital parameters, we have simulated PSP encounters with a fully three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of a CH jet. We find that three internal jet regions, featuring different wave modes and levels of compressibility, have distinct identifying signatures detectable by PSP. The leading Alfvn wave front and its immediate wake are characterized by transAlfvnic plasma flows with mild density enhancements. This front exhibits characteristics of a fast switch-on MHD shock, whose arrival is signaled by the sudden onset of large-amplitude transverse velocity and magnetic-field oscillations highly correlated in space and time. The trailing portion is characterized by supersonic but subAlfvnicout flows of dense plasma with uncorrelated velocity and magnetic-field oscillations. This compressible region contains most of the jet's mass. The volume between the immediate wake and dense jet, the remote wake,mixes and transitions the characteristics of the two other regions. In addition to probing each region separately, we also simulate a corotational PSP-jet encounter. In this scenario, the simulated spacecraft hovers over the jet producing CH, as may occur during the mission's corotational phases, sampling each jet region in turn. We estimate that PSP will encounter numerous CH jets over the lifetime of the mission.

Description: This paper reports on the re-analysis of solar flares in which the hard X-rays (HXRs) come predominantly from the corona rather than from the more usual chromospheric footpoints. All of the 26 previously analyzed event time intervals, over 13 flares, are re-examined for consistency with a flare model in which electrons are accelerated near the top of a magnetic loop which has a sufficiently high density to stop most of the electrons by Coulomb collisions before they can reach the footpoints. Of particular importance in the previous analysis was the finding that the length of the coronal HXR source increased with energy in the 2030 keV range. However, after allowing for the possibility that footpoint emission at the higher energies affects the inferred length of the coronal HXR source, and using analysis techniques that suppress the possible influence of such footpoint emission, we conclude that there is no longer evidence that the length of the HXR coronal sources increase with increasing energy. In fact, for the six flares and 12 time intervals that satisfied our selection criteria, the loop lengths decreased on average by 1.0 0.2 arcsec between 20 and 30 keV, with a standard deviation of 3.5 arcsec. We find strong evidence that the peak of the coronal HXR source increases in altitude with increasing energy. For the thermal component of the emission, this is consistent with the standard CHSKP flare model in which magnetic reconnection in a coronal current sheet results in new hot loops being formed at progressively higher altitudes. The explanation for the nonthermal emission is not so clear.

Description: No abstract available

Description: We investigate the propagation of the 2015 June 21 CME-driven shock as revealed by the type II bursts at metricand longer wavelengths and coronagraph observations. The CME was associated with the second largest geomagneticstorm of solar cycle 24 and a large solar energetic particle (SEP) event. The eruption consisted of twoM-class flares, with the first one being confined, with no metric or interplanetary radio bursts. However, therewas intense microwave burst, indicating accelerated particles injected toward the Sun. The second flare was eruptive that resulted in a halo CME. The CME was deflected primarily by an equatorial coronal hole that resulted in the modification of the intensity profile of the associated SEP event and the duration of the CME at Earth. The interplanetary type II burst was particularly intense and was visible from the corona all the way to the vicinity of the Wind spacecraft with fundamental-harmonic structure. We computed the shock speed using the type II drift rates at various heliocentric distances and obtained information on the evolution of the shock that matched coronagraph observations near the Sun and in-situ observations near Earth. The depth of the geomagnetic storm is consistent with the 1-AU speed of the CME and the magnitude of the southward component.

Description: Element abundance ratios of magnesium to neon (Mg/Ne) and neon to oxygen (Ne/O) in the transition region of the quiet Sun have been derived by re-assessing previously published data from the Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory in the light of new atomic data. The quiet Sun Mg/Ne ratio is important for assessing the effect of magnetic activity on the mechanism of the first ionization potential (FIP) effect, while the Ne/O ratio can be used to infer the solar photospheric abundance of neon, which cannot be measured directly. The average Mg/Ne ratio is found to be 0.52+/-0.11, which applies over the temperature region 0.2-0.7MK, and is consistent with the earlier study. The Ne/O ratio is, however, about 40%larger, taking the value 0.24+/-0.05 that applies to the temperature range 0.08-0.40MK. The increase is mostly due to changes in ionization and recombination rates that affect the equilibrium ionization balance. If the Ne/O ratio is interpreted as reflecting the photospheric ratio, then the photospheric neon abundance is 8.08+/-0.09 or 8.15+/-0.10 (on a logarithmic scale for which hydrogen is 12), according to whether the oxygen abundances of M.Asplund et al. or E.Caffau et al. are used. The updated photospheric neon abundance implies a Mg/Ne FIP bias for the quiet Sun of 1.6+/-0.6.

Description: We have conducted a survey of 341 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) using STEREO A/B data, analyzing their properties while extending a Level 3 product through 2016. Among the 192 ICMEs with distinguishable sheath region and magnetic obstacle, the magnetic field maxima in the two regions are comparable, and the dynamic pressure peaks mostly in the sheath. The north/south direction of the magnetic field does not present any clear relationship between the sheath region and the magnetic obstacle. About 71% of ICMEs are expanding at 1 au, and their expansion speed varies roughly linearly with their maximum speed except for ICMEs faster than 700 km/s. The total pressure generally peaks near the middle of the well-defined magnetic cloud (MC) passage, while it often declines along with the non-MC ICME passage, consistent with our previous interpretation concerning the effects of sampling geometry on what is observed. The hourly average iron charge state reaches above 12+ approx. 31% of the time for MCs, approx. 16% of the time for non-MC ICMEs, and approx. 1% of the time for non- ICME solar wind. In four ICMEs abrupt deviations of the magnetic field from the nominal field rotations occur in the magnetic obstacles, coincident with a brief drop or increase in field strength-features could be related to the interaction with dust. In comparison with the similar phases of solar cycle 23, the STEREO ICMEs in this cycle occur less often and are generally weaker and slower, although their field and pressure compressions weaken less than the background solar wind.

Description: Ultraviolet (UV) lines of molecular hydrogen have been observed in solar spectra for almost four decades, but the behavior of the molecular spectrum and its implications for solar atmospheric structure are not fully understood. Data from the High-Resolution Telescope Spectrometer (HRTS) instrument revealed that H2 emission forms in particular regions, selectively excited by a bright UV transition region and chromospheric lines. We test the conditions under which H2 emission can originate by studying non-LTE models, sampling a broad range of temperature stratifications and radiation conditions. Stratification plays the dominant role in determining the population densities of H2, which forms in greatest abundance near the continuum photosphere. However, opacity due to the photoionization of Si and other neutrals determines the depth to which UV radiation can penetrate to excite the H2. Thus the majority of H2 emission forms in a narrow region, at about 650 km in standard one dimensional (1D) models of the quiet Sun, near the tau = 1 opacity surface for the exciting UV radiation, generally coming from above. When irradiated from above using observed intensities of bright UV emission lines, detailed non-LTE calculations show that the spectrum of H2 seen in the quiet-Sun Solar Ultraviolet Measurement of Emitted Radiation atlas spectrum and HRTS light-bridge spectrum can be satisfactorily reproduced in 1D stratified atmospheres, without including three-dimensional or time-dependent thermal structures. A detailed comparison to observations from 1205 to 1550 Angstroms is presented, and the success of this 1D approach to modeling solar UV H2 emission is illustrated by the identification of previously unidentified lines and upper levels in HRTS spectra.

Description: Small, impulsive jets commonly occur throughout the solar corona, but are especially visible in coronal holes. Evidence is mounting that jets are part of a continuum of eruptions that extends to much larger coronal mass ejections and eruptive flares. Because coronal-hole jets originate in relatively simple magnetic structures, they offer an ideal testbed for theories of energy buildup and release in the full range of solar eruptions. We analyzed an equatorial coronal-hole jet observed by SDO/AIA on 09 January 2014, in which the magneticfield structure was consistent with the embedded-bipole topology that we identified and modeled previously as an origin of coronal jets. In addition, this event contained a mini-filament, which led to important insights into the energy storage and release mechanisms. SDO/HMI magnetograms revealed footpoint motions in the primary minority-polarity region at the eruption site, but show negligible flux emergence or cancellation for at least 16 hours before the eruption. Therefore, the free energy powering this jet probably came from magnetic shear concentrated at the polarity inversion line within the embedded bipole. We find that the observed activity sequence and its interpretation closely match the predictions of the breakout jet model, strongly supporting the hypothesis that the breakout model can explain solar eruptions on a wide range of scales.

Description: We explore new opportunities for solar physics that could be realized by future missions providing sustained observations from vantage points away from the Sun-Earth line (SEL). These include observation from the far side of the Sun, at high latitudes including over the solar poles, or from near-quadrature angles relative to the Earth (e.g., the Sun-Earth L4 & L5 Lagrange points). Such observations fill known holes in our scientific understanding of the three-dimensional time-evolving Sun and heliosphere, and have the potential to open new frontiers through discoveries enabled by novel viewpoints.

Description: Coronal jets are frequent magnetically-channeled narrow eruptions. They occur in various solar environments: quiet regions, coronal holes and active regions. All coronal jets observed in EUV and X-ray images show a bright spire with a base brightening, also known as jet bright point (JBP). Recent studies show that coronal jets are driven by small-scale filament eruptions (e.g. Hong et al. 2011, Shen et al. 2012, Adams et al. 2014, Sterling et al 2015). We (Panesar et al. 2016b) found in on disk quiet regions that coronal jets originate at a neutral line between dominant-polarity flux and a patch of canceling minority-polarity flux.

Description: Numerous observations have revealed that power-law distributions are ubiquitous in energetic solar processes. Hard X-rays, soft X-rays, extreme ultraviolet radiation, and radio waves all display power-law frequency distributions. Since magnetic reconnection is the driving mechanism for many energetic solar phenomena, it is likely that reconnection events themselves display such power-law distributions. In this work, we perform numerical simulations of the solar corona driven by simple convective motions at the photospheric level. Using temperature changes, current distributions, and Poynting fluxes as proxies for heating, we demonstrate that energetic events occurring in our simulation display power-law frequency distributions, with slopes in good agreement with observations. We suggest that the braiding-associated reconnection in the corona can be understood in terms of a self-organized criticality model driven by convective rotational motions similar to those observed at the photosphere.

Description: Small, impulsive jets commonly occur throughout the solar corona, but are especially visible in coronal holes. Evidence is mounting that jets are part of a continuum of eruptions that extends to much larger coronal mass ejections and eruptive flares. Because coronal-hole jets originate in relatively simple magnetic structures, they offer an ideal testbed for theories of energy buildup and release in the full range of solar eruptions. We analyzed an equatorial coronal-hole jet observed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/AIA (Atmospheric Imaging Assembly)) on 2014 January 9 in which the magnetic-field structure was consistent with the embedded-bipole topology that we identified and modeled previously as an origin of coronal jets. In addition, this event contained a mini-filament, which led to important insights into the energy storage and release mechanisms. SDO/HMI (Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) magnetograms revealed footpoint motions in the primary minority-polarity region at the eruption site, but show negligible flux emergence or cancellation for at least 16 hours before the eruption. Therefore, the free energy powering this jet probably came from magnetic shear concentrated at the polarity inversion line within the embedded bipole. We find that the observed activity sequence and its interpretation closely match the predictions of the breakout jet model, strongly supporting the hypothesis that the breakout model can explain solar eruptions on a wide range of scales.

Description: No abstract available

Description: In this paper we present an assessment of the status of models of the global solar wind in the inner heliosphere. We limit our discussion to the class of models designed to provide solar wind forecasts, excluding those designed for the purpose of testing physical processes in idealized configurations. In addition, we limit our discussion to modeling of the ambient wind in the absence of coronal mass ejections. In this assessment we cover use of the models both in forecast mode and as tools for scientific research. We present a brief history of the development of these models, discussing the range of physical approximations in use. We discuss the limitations of the data inputs available to these models and its impact on their quality. We also discuss current model development trends.

Description: As the present solar cycle passes into its minimum phase, the Hinode mission marks its tenth year of investigating solar activity. Hinode's decade of successful observations have provided us with immeasurable insight into the solar processes that invoke space weather and thereby affect the interplanetary environment in which we reside. The mission's complementary suite of instruments allows us to probe transient, high energy events alongside long-term, cycle-dependent phenomena from magnetic fields at the Sun's surface out to highly thermalized coronal plasma enveloping active regions (ARs). These rich data sets have already changed the face of solar physics and will continue to provoke exciting research as new observational paradigms are pursued. Hinode was launched as part of the Science Mission Directorate's (SMD) Solar Terrestrial Probes Program in 2006. It is a sophisticated spacecraft equipped with a Solar Optical Telescope (SOT), an Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer (EIS), and an X-Ray Telescope (XRT) (see x 4). With high resolution and sensitivity, Hinode serves as a microscope for the Sun, providing us with unique capabilities for observing magnetic fields near the smallest scales achievable, while also rendering full-Sun coronal context in the highest thermal regimes. The 2014 NASA SMD strategic goals objective to "Understand the Sun and its interactions with the Earth and the solar system, including space weather" forms the basis of three underlying Heliophysics Science Goals. While Hinode relates to all three, the observatory primarily addresses: Explore the physical processes in the space environment from the Sun to the Earth and through the solar system. Within the NASA National Research Council (NRC) Decadal Survey Priorities, Hinode targets: (a) Determine the origins of the Sun's activity and predict the variations of the space environment and (d) Discover and characterize fundamental processes that occur both within the heliosphere and throughout the universe. In response to the 2012 NRC Decadal Survey Science Challenges and 2014 Heliophysics Roadmap Research Focus Areas, the Hinode mission has set forth four Prioritized Science Goals (PSGs): (a) Study the sources and evolution of highly energetic dynamic events; (b) Characterize cross-scale magnetic field topology and stability; (c) Trace mass and energy flow from the photosphere to the corona; and (d) Continue long term synoptic support to quantify cycle variability.

Description: No abstract available

Description: Prediction of solar magnetic activity on various temporal scales is a fundamental element of space weather, which requires a wide range of theoretical and observational expertise in solar phenomena from the deep interior to the corona. Historical observations have revealed many features of cyclic variations of the solar activity; but these data are dramatically insufficient to draw a physical picture of global magnetic field evolution. New observational data, currently available from space missions and ground-based observatories, provide us with detailed information about solar dynamics and magnetism. However, because of the relatively short duration of data series and the great variety of data types and quality, it is challenging to assimilate these data in theoretical models and make reliable forecasts. The recent unexpectedly weak solar activity cycles, as well as observations of rotational and magnetic topology transitions in solar-type stars, suggest that the Sun and its magnetic dynamo are currently in a very interesting evolutionary stage. This could relate to the difficulty in getting a model of the Sun to produce solar-like rather than anti-solar-like differential rotation, to reproduce the rotation profile obtained from helioseismology, and to predict solar activity cycles.

Description: The recent prolonged activity minimum has led to the question of whether there is a base level of the solar magnetic field evolution that yields a ''floor'' in activity levels and also in the solar wind magnetic field strength. Recently, a flux transport model coupled with magneto-frictional simulations has been used to simulate the continuous magnetic field evolution in the global solar corona for over 15 years, from 1996 to 2012. Flux rope eruptions in the simulations are estimated (Yeates), and the results are in remarkable agreement with the shape of the SOlar Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment coronal mass ejection (CME) rate distribution. The eruption rates at the two recent minima approximate the observed-corrected CME rates, supporting the idea of a base level of solar magnetic activity. In this paper, we address this issue by comparing annual averages of the CME occurrence rates during the last four solar cycle minima with several tracers of the global solar magnetic field. We conclude that CME activity never ceases during a cycle, but maintains a base level of 1 CME every 1.5 to approx. 3 days during minima. We discuss the sources of these CMEs.

Description: The underlying origin of solar eruptive events (SEEs), ranging from giant coronal mass ejections to small coronalhole jets, is that the lowest-lying magnetic flux in the Sun's corona undergoes continual buildup of stress and free energy. This magnetic stress has long been observed as the phenomenon of "filament channels:" strongly sheared magnetic field localized around photospheric polarity inversion lines. However, the mechanism for the stress buildup-formation of filament channels-is still debated. We present magnetohydrodynamic simulations of a coronal volume that is driven by transient, cellular boundary flows designed to model the processes by which the photosphere drives the corona. The key feature of our simulations is that they accurately preserve magnetic helicity, the topological quantity that is conserved even in the presence of ubiquitous magnetic reconnection. Although small-scale random stress is injected everywhere at the photosphere, driving stochastic reconnection throughout the corona, the net result of the magnetic evolution is a coherent shearing of the lowest-lying field lines. This highly counterintuitive result-magnetic stress builds up locally rather than spreading out to attain a minimum energy state-explains the formation of filament channels and is the fundamental mechanism underlying SEEs. Furthermore, this process is likely to be relevant to other astrophysical and laboratory plasmas.

Description: We report on a study comparing coronal flux ropes inferred from eruption data with their interplanetary counterparts constructed from in situ data. The eruption data include the source region magnetic field, post-eruption arcades, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Flux ropes were fit to the interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) considered for the 2011 and 2012 Coordinated Data Analysis Workshops (CDAWs). We computed the total reconnected flux involved in each of the associated solar eruptions and found it to be closely related to flare properties, CME kinematics, and ICME properties. By fitting flux ropes to the white-light coronagraph data, we obtained the geometric properties of the flux ropes and added magnetic properties derived from the reconnected flux. We found that the CME magnetic field in the corona is significantly higher than the ambient magnetic field at a given heliocentric distance. The radial dependence of the flux rope magnetic field strength is faster than that of the ambient magnetic field. The magnetic field strength of the coronal flux rope is also correlated with that in interplanetary flux ropes constructed from in situ data, and with the observed peak magnetic field strength in ICMEs. The physical reason for the observed correlation between the peak field strength in MCs is the higher magnetic field content in faster coronal flux ropes and ultimately the higher reconnected flux in the eruption region. The magnetic flux ropes constructed from the eruption data and coronagraph observations provide a realistic input that can be used by various models to predict the magnetic properties of ICMEs at Earth and other destination in the heliosphere.

Description: We studied three solar energetic particle (SEP) events observed on 14 August 2010, 3 November 2011, and 5 March 2013 by Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) A, B, and near-Earth (L1) spacecraft with a longitudinal distribution of particles greater than 90 degrees. Using a forward modeling method combined with extreme ultraviolet and white-light images, we determined the angular extent of the shock, the time and location (cobpoint) of the shock intersection with the magnetic field line connecting to each spacecraft, and compute the shock speed at the cobpoint of each spacecraft. We then examine whether the observations of SEPs at each spacecraft were accelerated and injected by the spatially extended shocks or whether another mechanism such as cross-field transport is required for an alternative explanation. Our analyses results indicate that the SEPs observed at the three spacecraft on 3 November, STEREO B (STB) and L1 on 14 August, and the 5 March SEP event at STEREO A (STA) can be explained by the direct shock acceleration. This is consistent with the observed significant anisotropies, short time delays between particle release times and magnetic connection times, and sharp rises in the SEP time profiles. Cross-field diffusion is the likely cause for the 14 August SEP event observed by STA and the 5 March SEPs observed by STB and L1 spacecraft, as particle observations featured weak electron anisotropies and slow rising intensity profiles. Otherwise, the wide longitudinal spread of these SEP increases would require an existence of a circumsolar shock, which may not be a correct assumption in the corona and heliosphere.

Description: We report on further evidence that solar energetic particles are organized by the kinematic properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). In particular, we focus on the starting frequency of type II bursts, which is related to the distance from the Sun where the radio emission starts. We find that the three groups of solar energetic particle (SEP) events known to have distinct values of CME initial acceleration, also have distinct average starting frequencies of the associated type II bursts. SEP events with ground level enhancement (GLE) have the highest starting frequency (107 MHz), while those associated with filament eruption (FE) in quiescent regions have the lowest starting frequency (22 MHz); regular SEP events have intermediate starting frequency (81 MHz). Taking the onset time of type II bursts as the time of shock formation, we determine the shock formation heights measured from the Sun center. We find that the shocks form on average closest to the Sun (1.51 Rs) in GLE events, farthest from the Sun in FE SEP events (5.38 Rs), and at intermediate distances in regular SEP events (1.72 Rs). Finally, we present the results of a case study of a CME with high initial acceleration (approx.3 km s-2) and a type II radio burst with high starting frequency (approx. 200 MHz) but associated with a minor SEP event. We find that the relation between the fluence spectral index and CME initial acceleration continues to hold even for this minor SEP event.

Description: No abstract available

Description: Coronal fans (see Figure 1) are bright observational structures that extend to large distances above the solar surface and can easily be seen in EUV (174 angstrom) above the limb. They have a very long lifetime and can live up to several Carrington rotations (CR), remaining relatively stationary for many months. Note that they are not off-limb manifestation of similarly-named active region fans. The solar conditions required to create coronal fans are not well understood. The goal of this research was to find as many associations as possible of coronal fans with other solar features and to gain a better understanding of these structures. Therefore, we analyzed many fans and created an overview of their properties. We present the results of this statistical analysis and also a case study on the longest living fan.

Description: A Conference on Measurement Techniques for Solar and Space Physics was held on 20-24 April 2015 in Boulder, Colorado, at the National Center for Atmospheric Research Center Green Campus. The present volume collects together the conference papers for photons and ground-based categories. This gathering of over 200 scientists and instrumentalists was born out of the desire to collect in one place the latest experiment and instrument technologies required for advancement of scientific knowledge in the disciplines of solar and space physics. The two goals for this conference and the subsequent publication of its content are (a) to describe measurement techniques and technology development needed to advance high priority science in the fields of solar and space physics; and (b) to provide a survey or reference of techniques for in situ measurement and remote sensing of space plasmas. Towards this end, our goal has always been inspired by the two 1998 Geophysical Monographs (Nos. 102 and 103) entitled, "Measurement Techniques in Space Plasmas" (particles and fields) [Pfaff et al., 1998a, 1998b], which have served as a reference and resource for advanced students, engineers, and scientists who wish to learn the fundamentals of measurement techniques and technology in this field. Those monographs were the product of an American Geophysical Union Chapman Conference that took place in Santa Fe, NM, in 1995: "Measurement Techniques in Space Plasmas-What Works, What Doesn't." Two decades later, we believe that it is appropriate to revisit this subject, in light of recent advances in technology, research platforms, and analysis techniques. Moreover, we now include direct measurements of neutral gases in the upper atmosphere, optical imaging techniques, and remote observations in space and on the ground. Accordingly, the workshop was organized among four areas of measurement techniques: particles, fields, photons, and ground-based. This two-set volume is largely composed of the content of that workshop. Special attention is given to those techniques and technologies that demonstrate promise of significant advancement in measurements that will enable the highest priority science as described in the 2012 National Research Council Decadal Survey [Baker and Zurbuchen et al., 2013]. Additionally, a broad tutorial survey of the current technologies is provided to serve as reference material and as a basis from which advanced and innovative ideas can be discussed and pursued. Included are instrumentation and techniques to observe the solar environment from its interior to its outer atmosphere, the heliosphere out to the interstellar regions, in geospace, and other planetary magnetospheres and atmospheres. To make significant progress in priority science as expressed in the National Research Council solar and space physics decadal survey and recent NASA Heliophysics roadmaps, identification of enabling new measurement techniques and technologies to be developed is required. Also, it is valuable to the community and future scientists and engineers to have a complete survey of the techniques and technologies used by the practitioners of solar and space physics. As with the 1995 conference and subsequent 1998 publication, it is incumbent on the community to identify those measurements that are particularly challenging and still require new techniques to be identified and tested to enable the necessary accuracy and resolution of certain parameters to be achieved. The following is a partial list of the measurement technique categories that are featured in these special publications: Particles; Thermal plasma to MeV energetic particles, neutral gas properties including winds, density, temperature, and composition, and enhanced neutral atom imaging; Fields; DC electric and magnetic fields, plasma waves, and electron drift instruments from which the plasma velocity information provides a measure of the DC electric field; Photons; Instruments sensitive from the near-infrared to X-rays; Contributions of techniques and technology for optical design, optical components, sensors, material selection for cameras, telescopes, and spectrographs; Ground based; Remote sensing methods for solar and geospace activity and space weather. The focus includes solar observatories, all-sky cameras, lidars, and ionosphere thermosphere mesosphere observatory systems such as radars, ionosondes, GPS receivers, magnetometers, conjugate observations, and airborne campaigns. The present volume collects together the papers for photons and ground-based categories. The companion volume collects together the papers for particles and fields categories. It is recognized that there are measurement techniques that overlap among the four categories. For example, use of microchannel plate detectors is used in photon and particle measurement techniques or the observation of visible photons and magnetic fields in space and on the ground share common technologies. Therefore, the reader should consider the entire collection of papers as they seek to understand particular applications. We hope that these volumes will be as valuable as a reference for our community as the earlier 1998 volumes have been.

Description: No abstract available

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Description: No abstract available