ALBERT

Description: ABSTRACT A reactive transport modeling framework is presented that allows simultaneous assessment of groundwater flow, water quality evolution including δ 13 C, and 14 C activity or “age”. Through application of this framework, simulated 14 C activities can be directly compared with measured 14 C activities. This bypasses the need for interpretation of a 14 C age prior to flow simulation through factoring out processes other than radioactive decay, which typically involves simplifying assumptions regarding spatial and temporal variability in reactions, flow, and mixing. The utility of the approach is demonstrated for an aquifer system with spatially variable carbonate mineral distribution, multiple organic carbon sources, and transient boundary conditions for 14 C activity in the recharge water. In this case the simulated 14 C age was shown to be relatively insensitive to isotopic fractionation during DOC oxidation and variations in assumed DOC degradation behaviour. We demonstrate that the model allows quantitative testing of hypotheses regarding controls on groundwater age and water quality evolution for all three carbon isotopes. The approach also facilitates incorporation of multiple environmental tracers and combination with parameter optimization techniques. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Water scarcity is likely to increase in the coming years, making improvements in irrigation efficiency increasingly important. An emerging technology that promises to increase irrigation efficiency substantially is a wireless irrigation sensor network that uploads sensor data into irrigation management software, creating an integrated system that allows real-time monitoring and control of moisture status that has been shown in experimental settings to reduce irrigation costs, lower plant loss rates, shorten production times, decrease pesticide application, and increase yield, quality, and profit. We use an original survey to investigate likely initial acceptance, ceiling adoption rates, and profitability of this new sensor network technology in the nursery and greenhouse industry. We find that adoption rates for a base system and demand for expansion components are decreasing in price, as expected. The price elasticity of the probability of adoption suggests that sensor networks are likely to diffuse at a rate somewhat greater than that of drip irrigation. Adoption rates for a base system and demand for expansion components are increasing in specialization in ornamental production: Growers earning greater shares of revenue from greenhouse and nursery operations are willing to pay more for a base system and are willing to purchase larger numbers of expansion components at any given price. We estimate that growers who are willing to purchase a sensor network expect investment in this technology to generate significant profit, consistent with findings from experimental studies. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: This technical note presents a useful methodology for studying how the variance of hydraulic and/or reactive attributes of an aquifer are linked to the multi-scaled and hierarchical sedimentary architecture of the aquifer. A new recursive equation is derived which quantitatively describes how the variance is related to sedimentary facies defined at all scales across an entire stratal hierarchy. As compared to prior published equations that emphasize differences in means among facies populations within a hierarchical level, it emphasizes differences across levels. Because of the hierarchical relationships among the terms of the equation, we find it to be useful for conducting a holistic analysis of the relative contributions to the variance arising from all facies types defined across all scales. The methodology is demonstrated using appropriate field data, and is shown to be useful in defining parsimonious classification systems.

Description: ABSTRACT A primary concern for geologic carbon storage is the potential for leakage of stored carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into the shallow subsurface where it could degrade the quality of groundwater and surface water. In order to predict and mitigate the potentially negative impacts of CO 2 leakage, it is important to understand the physical processes that CO 2 will undergo as it moves through naturally heterogeneous porous media formations. Previous studies have shown that heterogeneity can enhance the evolution of gas phase CO 2 in some cases, but the conditions under which this occurs have not yet been quantitatively defined, nor tested through laboratory experiments. This study quantitatively investigates the effects of geologic heterogeneity on the process of gas phase CO 2 evolution in shallow aquifers through an extensive set of experiments conducted in a column that was packed with layers of various test sands. Soil moisture sensors were utilized to observe the formation of gas phase near the porous media interfaces. Results indicate that the conditions under which heterogeneity controls gas phase evolution can be successfully predicted through analysis of simple parameters, including the dissolved CO 2 concentration in the flowing water, the distance between the heterogeneity and the leakage location, and some fundamental properties of the porous media. Results also show that interfaces where a less permeable material overlies a more permeable material affect gas phase evolution more significantly than interfaces with the opposite layering.

Description: Fluvial sediment loads are frequently calculated with rating curves fit to measured sediment transport rates. Rating curves are often treated as statistical representations in which the fitted parameters have little or no physical meaning. Such models, however, may produce large errors when extrapolation is needed, and they provide no insight into the sediment transport process. It is shown that log-linear least squares, the usual method for fitting rating curves, does not generally produce physically meaningful parameter values. In addition, it cannot accommodate data that include zero-transport samples. Alternative fitting methods based non-linear least squares and on maximum likelihood parameter estimation are described and evaluated. The maximum likelihood approach is shown to fit synthetic data better than linear or non-linear least squares, and to perform well with data that include zero-transport samples. In contrast, non-linear least squares methods produce large errors in the parameter estimates when zero-transport samples are present or when the variance structure of the data is incorrectly specified. Analyses with fractional bedload data from a mountain stream suggest that bedload transport rates are gamma distributed, that the arrivals of bedload particles in a sampler conform to a Poisson distribution, and that the variance of non-zero samples can be expressed as a power function of the mean. Preliminary physical interpretations of variations in the rating curve parameters fit to fractional bedload data with the maximum likelihood method are proposed, and their relation to some previous interpretations of rating curve parameters are briefly discussed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: This paper presents the results of a comprehensive model-based analysis of a uranyl [U(VI)] tracer test conducted at the U.S. DOE Hanford 300 Area (300A) IFRC. Despite the highly complex field conditions the numerical three-dimensional multi-component reactive transport model was able to capture most of the spatiotemporal variations of the observed U(VI) concentrations. A multi-model analysis was performed to interrogate the relative importance of various processes and factors for controlling field-scale reactive transport during the uranyl tracer test. The results indicate that multi-rate sorption/desorption, surface complexation reactions, and initial concentrations were the most important processes and factors controlling U(VI) migration. On the other hand, cation exchange reactions, the choice of the surface complexation model, and dual-domain mass transfer processes played less important roles under the prevailing field-test condition. Further analysis of the modeling results demonstrates that these findings are conditioned to the relatively stable groundwater chemistry and the selected length of the field experimental duration (16 days). The model analysis also revealed the crucial role of the intraborehole flow that occurred within the long-screened monitoring wells and thus affected both field measurements and simulated U(VI) concentrations as a combined effect of aquifer heterogeneity and dynamic flow conditions. This study provides the first highly data-constrained uranium transport simulations under highly dynamic flow conditions. It illustrates the value of reactive transport modeling for elucidating the relative importance of individual processes in controlling uranium transport under specific field-scale conditions.

Description: The dynamics of drying processes from porous media are critically influenced by the intensity of an adjacent free flow and by processes at the interface between free flow and the porous medium. In this paper, the influence of hydraulic properties of a porous medium and of the interaction between fluids and porous medium on the drying dynamics during the capillary-flow dominated stage-1 and transition to the diffusion-dominated stage-2 are studied using a coupled free-flow - porous-medium flow model on the REV scale. We present a detailed model concept that considers mass balance equations, an energy balance equation and the coupling to the adjacent free flow. Key microscale processes are identified and incorporated in the macroscale description of the evaporation process. Own experimental results are used to illustrate main features of the modeling framework. We demonstrate that the use of a homogeneous distribution of soil parameters without consideration of pore-scale induced nonlinearities in the numerical simulations results in a rather constant drying rate in stage-1, which was not observed for the high evaporative demand in the experiments. To account for the dependency of the drying rate on the surface moisture content, special conditions based on the work of Haghighi et al. [2013] and Schlünder [1988] are analyzed for their applicability on the REV scale. Typical features of a drying process, such as different stages of the drying rate, could be reproduced.

Description: Making useful predictions in ungauged basins is an incredibly difficult task given the limitations of hydrologic models to represent physical processes appropriately across the heterogeneity within and among different catchments. Here, we introduce a new method for this challenge, Bayes empirical Bayes, that allows for the statistical pooling of information from multiple donor catchments and provides the ability to transfer parametric distributions rather than single parameter sets to the ungauged catchment. Further, the methodology provides an efficient framework with which to formally assess predictive uncertainty at the ungauged catchment. We investigated the utility of the methodology under both synthetic and real data conditions, and with respect to its sensitivity to the number and quality of the donor catchments used. This study highlighted the ability of the hierarchical Bayes empirical Bayes approach to produce expected outcomes in both the synthetic and real data applications. The method was found to be sensitive to the quality (hydrologic similarity) of the donor catchments used. Results were less sensitive to the number of donor catchments, but indicated that predictive uncertainty was best constrained with larger numbers of donor catchments (but still adequate with fewer donors)

Description: Autumn is a season of dynamic change in forest streams of the northeastern USA due to effects of leaf fall on both hydrology and biogeochemistry. Few studies have explored how interactions of biogeochemical transformations, various nitrogen sources, and catchment flowpaths affect stream nitrogen variation during autumn. To provide more information on this critical period, we studied 1) the timing, duration, and magnitude of changes to stream nitrate, dissolved organic nitrogen (DON), and ammonium concentrations; 2) changes in nitrate sources and cycling; and 3) source areas of the landscape that most influence stream nitrogen. We collected samples at higher temporal resolution for a longer duration than typical studies of stream nitrogen during autumn. This sampling scheme encompassed the patterns and extremes that occurred during baseflow and stormflow events of autumn. Baseflow nitrate concentrations decreased by an order of magnitude from 5.4 to 0.7 μmol L -1 during the week when most leaves fell from deciduous trees. Changes to rates of biogeochemical transformations during autumn baseflow explained the low nitrate concentrations; in-stream transformations retained up to 72% of the nitrate that entered a stream reach. A decrease of in-stream nitrification coupled with assimilatory nitrate uptake was a primary factor in the seasonal nitrate decline. The period of low nitrate concentrations ended with a storm event in which stream nitrate concentrations increased by 25 fold. In the ensuing weeks, stormflow nitrate concentrations progressively decreased over closely-spaced, yet similarly sized events. Most stormflow nitrate originated from nitrification in near-stream areas with occasional, large inputs of unprocessed atmospheric nitrate, which has rarely been reported for non-snowmelt events. A maximum input of 33% unprocessed atmospheric nitrate to the stream occurred during one event. The large inputs of unprocessed atmospheric nitrate show direct and rapid effects on forest streams that may be widespread, although undocumented, throughout nitrogen-polluted temperate forests. In contrast to a week-long nitrate decline during peak autumn litterfall, baseflow DON concentrations increased after leaf fall and remained high for two months. Dissolved organic nitrogen was hydrologically flushed to the stream from riparian soils during stormflow. In contrast to distinct seasonal changes in baseflow nitrate and DON concentrations, ammonium concentrations were typically at or below detection limit, similar to the rest of the year. Our findings reveal couplings among catchment flow paths, nutrient sources and transformations that control seasonal extremes of stream nitrogen in forested landscapes.

Description: During the recent years there has been an increasing interest in multivariate frequency analysis of hydrological variables, e.g. those describing extreme events like rainfall, floods or droughts. The multivariate analysis provides a better understanding of the phenomena under investigation and an additional insight about the interrelationships between the different variables (e.g. peak, volume and duration of the flood), exploiting the complete structure of the problem and making a full use of the available data. However, while the developments on multivariate analysis of hydrological data has produced a large body of literature, a clear assessment of the use of these methods in the design and risk assessment of hydraulic structures is still a matter of debate. In the present work we illustrate a general, structure-based framework for the design and/or risk assessment of hydraulic structures in a bivariate environment; we also compare it to recently proposed methods which are based on the assumption of hydrological design events (as is customary in the univariate context). For illustration purposes, both the structure-based and the design event-based approaches are applied to the design of an idealized structure, thus exploring the differences among the methods as function of the parameters involved. Our work highlights that the return period of structure failure in a multivariate environment strictly depends on the particular structure under design, and in most cases the design of an hydraulic structure cannot be based on a single, hydrological multivariate design event. This acts as a warning for practitioners against the use of design methods based on single hydrological events, as usually done in the context of univariate hydrology, thus neglecting the interplay between the structure and the hydrological loads acting on it.

Description: Proliferation of evapotranspiration (ET) products warrants comparison of these products. The study objective was to assess uncertainty in ET output from four land surface models (LSMs), Noah, Mosaic, VIC, and SAC in NLDAS-2, two remote sensing-based products, MODIS and AVHRR, and GRACE-inferred ET from a water budget with precipitation from PRISM, monitored runoff, and total water storage change (TWSC) from GRACE satellites. The three cornered hat method, which does not require a priori knowledge of the true ET value, was used to estimate ET uncertainties. In addition, TWSC or total water storage anomaly (TWSA) from GRACE was compared with water budget estimates of TWSC from a flux-based approach or TWSA from a storage-based approach. The analyses were conducted using data from three regions (humid – arid) in the South Central US as case studies. Uncertainties in ET are lowest in LSM ET (~5 mm/month), moderate in MODIS- or AVHRR-based ET (10 – 15 mm/month), and highest in GRACE-inferred ET (20 – 30 mm/month). There is a tradeoff between spatial resolution and uncertainty, with lower uncertainty in the coarser-resolution LSM ET (~14 km) relative to higher uncertainty in the finer-resolution (~ 1 ‒ 8 km) RS ET. Root-mean-square (RMS) of uncertainties in water budget estimates of TWSC is about half of RMS of uncertainties in GRACE-derived TWSC for each of the regions. Future ET estimation should consider a hybrid approach that integrates strengths of LSMs and satellite-based products to constrain uncertainties.

Description: It is well documented that deforestation results in an increase in landslide frequency due to the control that forest roots have on slope stability. The loss of forest vegetation leads to a reduction in soil cohesion and a decrease in the shear strength of the soil profile. As a result, the slope becomes more susceptible to landsliding and the return time of landslides decreases. When a landslide removes the soil profile, there may not be adequate time for seedlings to grow and enhance soil stability. In this study, we investigate whether bistable dynamics emerge from the interaction of forest vegetation with the formation and accumulation of colluvial deposits in soil-mantled landscapes. To that end, we develop deterministic and stochastic models of landslide occurrence with a dynamic vegetation component. Results show that bistability exists for the deterministic case for both steep and shallow hollows under event and supply limited conditions. However, for the stochastic case, the randomness of landslide occurrence largely changed the states of the system such that the system only exhibited one stable state, which was the fully vegetated condition. Examining different management practices under stochastic conditions showed that the system eventually recovered; however, management practices influenced the recovery time of the forest. Thus, different management practices could render the land in a state of low vegetation over economically significant time periods.

Description: Seepage flux from ephemeral streams can be an important component of the water balance in arid and semi-arid regions. An emerging technique for quantifying this flux involves the measurement and simulation of a flood wave as it moves along an initially dry channel. This study investigates the usefulness of including surface water and groundwater data to improve model calibration when using this technique. We trialed this approach using a controlled flow event along a 1387 m reach of artificial stream channel. Observations were then simulated using a numerical model that combines the diffusion wave approximation of the Saint-Vénant equations for streamflow routing, with Philips’ infiltration equation and the groundwater flow equation. Model estimates of seepage flux for the upstream segments of the study reach, where streambed hydraulic conductivities were approximately 10 1 m d -1 , were on the order of 10 -4 m 3 d -1 m -2 . In the downstream segments, streambed hydraulic conductivities were generally much lower but highly variable (~10 -3 – 10 -7 m d -1 ). The Latin Hypercube Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis showed that the flood front timing, surface water stage, groundwater heads and the predicted stream flow seepage were most influenced by specific yield. Furthermore, inclusion of groundwater data resulted in a higher estimate of total seepage estimates than if the flood front timing were used alone.

Description: We present a probabilistic sediment cascade model to simulate sediment transfer in a mountain basin (Illgraben, Switzerland) where sediment is produced by hillslope landslides and rockfalls and exported out of the basin by debris flows and floods. The model conceptualizes the fluvial system as a spatially lumped cascade of connected reservoirs representing hillslope and channel storages where sediment goes through cycles of storage and remobilization by surface runoff. The model includes all relevant hydrological processes that lead to runoff formation in an Alpine basin, such as precipitation, snow accumulation, snow melt, evapotranspiration, and soil water storage. Although the processes of sediment transfer and debris flow generation are described in a simplified manner, the model produces complex sediment discharge behavior which is driven by the availability of sediment and antecedent wetness conditions (system memory) as well as the triggering potential (climatic forcing). The observed probability distribution of debris flow volumes and their seasonality in 2000-2009 are reproduced. The stochasticity of hillslope sediment input is important for reproducing realistic sediment storage variability, although many details of the hillslope landslide triggering procedures are filtered out by the sediment transfer system. The model allows us to explicitly quantify the division into transport and supply-limited sediment discharge events. We show that debris flows may be generated for a wide range of rainfall intensities because of variable antecedent basin wetness and snowmelt contribution to runoff, which helps to understand the limitations of methods based on a single rainfall threshold for debris flow initiation in Alpine basins.

Description: Characterizing the complex geometries and the heterogeneity of the deposits in meandering river systems is a long-standing issue for the 3D modeling of alluvial formations. Such deposits are important sources of accessible groundwater in alluvial aquifers throughout the world and also play a major role as hydrocarbons reservoirs. In this paper we present a method to generate meandering river centerlines that are stochastic, geologically realistic, connected and conditioned to local observations or global geomorphological characteristics. The method is based on fast 1D multiple-point statistics in a transformed curvilinear domain: the succession in directions observed in a real world meandering river (the analog) is considered as statistical model for multiple-point statistics simulation. The integration of local data is accomplished by an inverse procedure ensuring that the channels pass through a given set of locations while conserving the high-order spatial characteristics of an analog. The methodology is applied on seven real world case studies. This work demonstrates the flexibility and the applicability of multiple-point statistics outside the standard paradigm that considers the simulation of a 2D or 3D variable with spatial coordinates.

Description: Large asymmetric bedforms commonly develop in rivers. The turbulence associated with flow separation that develops over their steep lee side is responsible for the form shear stress which can represent a substantial part of total shear stress in rivers. This paper uses the Delft3D modeling system to investigate the effects of bedform geometry and forcing conditions on flow separation length and associated turbulence, and bedform shear stress over angle-of-repose (30° lee side angle) bedforms. The model was validated with laboratory measurements that showed sufficient agreement to be used for a systematic analysis. The influence of flow velocity, bed roughness, relative height (bedform height / water depth) and aspect ratio (bedform height / length) on the variations of the normalized length of the flow separation zone, the extent of the wake region (where the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) was more than 70% of the maximum TKE), the average TKE within the wake region and the form shear stress were investigated. Form shear stress was found not to scale with the size of the flow separation zone but to be related to the product of the normalized extent of the wake region (extent of the wake region / extent of water body above the bedform) and the average TKE within the wake region. The results add to understanding of the hydrodynamics of bedforms and may be used for the development of better parameterizations of small-scale processes for application in large-scale studies.

Description: We explore the bankfull width ( W bf ) vs. drainage area ( A da ) relationship across a range of climatic and geologic environments, and ask (1) is the relationship between ln ( W bf ) and ln ( A da ) best described by a linear function and (2) can a reliable relationship be developed for predicting W bf with A da as the only independent variable. The principal dataset for this study was compiled from regional curve studies and other reports that represent 1,018 sites (1 m ≤ W bf ≤ 110 m and 0.50 km 2 ≤ A da ≤ 22,000 km 2 ) in the continental U.S. Two additional datasets were used for validation. After dividing the data into small-, medium-, and large-size basins which, respectfully, correspond to A da 〈 4.95 km 2 , 4.95 km 2 ≤ A da 〈 337 km 2 , and A da ≥ 337 km 2 , regression lines from each dataset were compared using one-way analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). A second ANCOVA was performed to determine if mean annual precipitation ( P ) is an extraneous factor in the W bf vs. A da relationship. The ANCOVA results reveal that using A da alone does not yield a reliable W bf vs. A da relationship that is applicable across a wide range of environments and that P is a significant extraneous factor in the relationship. Considering data for very small basins ( A da ≤ 0.49 km 2 ) and very large basins ( A da ≥ 1.0×10 5 km 2 ) we conclude that a two-segment linear model is the most probable form of the ln ( W bf ) vs. ln ( A da ) relationship. This study provides useful information for building complex multivariate models for predicting W bf .

Description: Recent studies show that multimodel combinations improve hydroclimatic predictions by reducing model uncertainty. Given that climate forecasts are available from multiple climate models, which could be ingested with multiple watershed models, what is the best strategy to reduce the uncertainty in streamflow forecasts? To address this question, we consider three possible strategies: (1) reduce the input uncertainty first by combining climate models and then use the multimodel climate forecasts with multiple watershed models (MM-P) (2) ingest the individual climate forecasts (without multimodel combination) with various watershed models and then combine the streamflow predictions that arise from all possible combinations of climate and watershed models (MM-Q)(3) combine the streamflow forecasts obtained from multiple watershed models based on strategy (1) to develop a single streamflow prediction that reduces uncertainty in both climate forecasts and watershed models (MM-PQ) . For this purpose, we consider synthetic schemes that generate streamflow and climate forecasts, for comparing the performance of three strategies with the true streamflow generated by a given hydrologic model. Results from the synthetic study show that reducing input uncertainty first ( MM-P ) by combining climate forecasts results in reduced error in predicting the true streamflow compared to the error of multimodel streamflow forecasts obtained by combining streamflow forecasts from all-possible combination of individual climate model with various hydrologic models ( MM-Q ). Since the true hydrologic model structure is unknown, it is desirable to consider MM-PQ as an alternate choice that reduces both input uncertainty and hydrologic model uncertainty. Application on two watersheds in NC also indicates that reducing the input uncertainty first is critical before reducing the hydrologic model uncertainty.

Description: The understanding of reasons leading to non-uniqueness of soil erosion susceptibility is still inadequate, yet indispensable for establishing general relations between runoff volume and sediment yield. To obtain relevant insights, we performed a series of numerical simulations with a detailed hydrodynamic model using synthetic storms of varying intensity, duration, and lag time between events as representations of different hydrologic response conditions in a zero-order catchment. The design targeted to generate surface flow and ‘perturb’ soil substrate by a first rainfall event, creating a set of initial conditions in terms of flow and deposited sediment prior to the onset of a subsequent rainfall event. Due to the differential effect of (re)detachment and (re)entrainment processes on soil particles of varying sizes, the deposited sediment mass formed shielding layer. One of the essential results is that unless the initial condition of flow and sediment is identical, the same volume of runoff can generate different total sediment yields and their variation can reach up to ~200%. The effect is attributed to two major conflicting effects exerted by the deposited ‘initialization’ (soil antecedent condition) sediment mass: erosion enhancement, because of supply of highly erodible sediment, and erosion impediment, because of constrain on the availability of lighter particles by heavier sediment. Consistently with this inference, long-term simulations with continuous rainfall show that a peculiar feature of sediment yield series is the existence of maximum before the steady-state is reached. The two characteristic time scales, the time to peak and the time to steady-state, separate three characteristic periods that correspond to flow-limited, source-limited, and steady-state regimes. These time scales are log-linearly and negatively related to the spatially averaged Shields parameter: the smaller the rainfall input and the heavier a given particle is, the larger the two scales are. The results provide insights on how the existence of shield operates on erosion processes, possibly implying that accurate short-term predictions of geomorphic events from headwater areas may never become a tractable problem: the latter would require a detailed spatial characterization of particle size distribution prior to precipitation events.

Description: Aquifer hydraulic properties such as hydraulic conductivity ( K ) are ubiquitously heterogeneous and typically only a statistical characterization can be sought. Additionally statistical anisotropy at typical characterization scales is the rule. Thus, regardless of the processes governing solute transport at the local (pore) scale, transport becomes non-Fickian. Mass-transfer models provide an efficient tool that reproduces observed anomalous transport; in some cases though, these models lack predictability as model parameters cannot readily be connected to the physical properties of aquifers. In this study we focus on a multi-rate mass-transfer model (MRMT), and in particular the apparent capacity coefficient (β), which is a strong indicator of the potential of immobile zones to capture moving solute. We aim to find if the choice of an apparent β can be phenomenologically related to measures of statistical anisotropy. We analyzed an ensemble of random simulations of three-dimensional log-transformed multi-Gaussian permeability fields with stationary anisotropic correlation under convergent flow conditions. It was found that apparent β also displays an anisotropic behavior, physically controlled by the aquifer directional connectivity, which in turn is controlled by the anisotropic correlation model. A high hydraulic connectivity results in large β values. These results provide new insights into the practical use of mass-transfer models for predictive purposes.

Description: In this paper, an operational algorithm is proposed for the mapping of surface moisture over the northern and central parts of Tunisia, in North Africa. A change detection approach is applied, using 160 multi-incidence Envisat ASAR Wide Swath images acquired in the horizontal polarization over a 7-year period. Parameterization of this algorithm is considered for three classes of vegetation cover density (NDVI〈0.25, 0.25〈NDVI〈0.5 and NDVI〉0.5), retrieved from SPOT-VGT decadal images. A relative soil moisture index, ranging between 0 (for the driest surfaces) and 1 (for saturated soils), is proposed for each date, with a resolution of 1 km. The retrieved soil moistures are validated by means of ground measurements based on continuous thetaprobe measurements, as well as low resolution (25 km) ERS and ASCAT soil moisture products from the Vienna University of Technology (TU Wien). A qualitative relationship between spatio-temporal variations of moisture and precipitation is also discussed.

Description: This paper presents the results of a data based comparative study of several hundred catchments across continental United States belonging to the MOPEX dataset to systematically explore the connection between the flood frequency curve and mean annual water balance. Mean annual water balance is expressed in terms of two similarity measures: (i) the climatic aridity index, AI , which is a measure of the competition between energy and water availability; and (ii) the baseflow index, BFI , which is a measure of total runoff partitioning into surface and subsurface components at the annual time scale. The data analyses showed that the aridity index, AI , has a first order control on the shape of the flood frequency curve (also known as the growth curve), as expressed in terms of both the mean and coefficient of variation ( C v ) of the annual maximum floods, once normalized by catchment size (i.e., specific flood discharge) While the mean annual (specific) flood discharge decreases with increasing aridity, C v increases with increasing aridity. On the other hand, the BFI was found to be a second order control on the flood frequency curve. Higher BFI , meaning higher contributions of subsurface flow to total streamflow, leads to a decrease of the mean annual (specific) flood discharge, and vice versa. The statistically significant relationship between AI and the flood frequency curve and the consistent shift of the growth curves with AI support the use of AI as a similarity measure for regionalization of flood frequency.

Description: The performance of glacio-hydrological models which simulate catchment response to climate variability depends to a large degree on the data used to force the models. The forcing data become increasingly important in high elevation, glacierised catchments where the interplay between extreme topography, climate and the cryosphere is complex. It is challenging to generate a reliable forcing dataset that captures this spatial heterogeneity. In this paper, we analyze the results of a one year field campaign focusing on air temperature and precipitation observations in the Langtang Valley in the Nepalese Himalayas. We use the observed time series to characterize both temperature lapse rates (LRs) and precipitation gradients (PGs). We study their spatial and temporal variability, and we attempt to identify possible controlling factors. We show that very clear LRs exist in the valley and that there are strong seasonal differences related to the water vapor content in the atmosphere. Results also show that the LRs are generally shallower than the commonly used environmental lapse rates. The analysis of the precipitation observations reveal that there is great variability in precipitation over short horizontal distances. A uniform valley wide PG cannot be established and several scale-dependent mechanisms may explain our observations. We complete our analysis by showing the impact of the observed LRs and PGs on the outputs of the TOPKAPI-ETH glacio-hydrological model. We conclude that LRs and PGs have a very large impact on the water balance composition and that short-term monitoring campaigns have the potential to improve model quality considerably.

Description: Many physically-based hydrological/hydrogeological models used for predicting groundwater seepage areas, including topography-based index models such as TOPMODEL, rely on the Dupuit assumption. To ensure the sound use of these simplified models, knowledge of the conditions under which they provide a reasonable approximation is critical. In this study, a Dupuit solution for the seepage length in hillslope cross-sections is tested against a full-depth solution of saturated groundwater flow. In homogeneous hillslopes with horizontal impervious base and constant-slope topography, the comparison reveals that the validity of the Dupuit solution depends not only on the ratio of depth to hillslope length d/L (as might be expected), but also on the ratio of hydraulic conductivity to recharge K/R and on the topographic slope s . The validity of the Dupuit solution is shown to be in fact a unique function of another ratio, the ratio of depth to seepage length d/L S . For d/L S 〈 0.2, the relative difference between the two solutions is quite small (〈 14% for the wide range of parameter values tested), whereas for d/L S 〉 0.2, it increases dramatically. In practice, this criterion can be used to test the validity of Dupuit solutions. When d/L S increases beyond that cut-off, the ratio of seepage length to hillslope length L S /L given by the full-depth solution tends towards a non-zero asymptotic value. This asymptotic value is shown to be controlled by (and in many cases equal to) the parameter R/sK . Generalization of the findings to cases featuring heterogeneity, non-horizontal impervious base and variable-slope topography is discussed.

Description: Isothermal compositional flow models require coupling transient compressible flows and advective transport systems of various chemical species in subsurface porous media. Building such numerical models is quite challenging and may be subject to many sources of uncertainties because of possible incomplete representation of some geological parameters that characterize the system's processes. Advanced data assimilation methods, such as the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), can be used to calibrate these models by incorporating available data. In this work, we consider the problem of estimating reservoir permeability using information about phase pressure as well as the chemical properties of fluid components. We carry out state-parameter estimation experiments using joint and dual updating schemes in the context of the EnKF with a two-dimensional single-phase compositional flow model (CFM). Quantitative and statistical analyses are performed to evaluate and compare the performance of the assimilation schemes. Our results indicate that including chemical composition data significantly enhances the accuracy of the permeability estimates. In addition, composition data provide more information to estimate system states and parameters than do standard pressure data. The dual state-parameter estimation scheme provides about 10% more accurate permeability estimates on average than the joint scheme when implemented with the same ensemble members, at the cost of twice more forward model integrations. At similar computational cost, the dual approach becomes only beneficial after using large enough ensembles.

Description: Groundwater-fed irrigation has been shown to deplete groundwater storage, decrease surface water runoff and increase evapotranspiration. Here we simulate soil moisture dependent groundwater-fed irrigation with an integrated hydrologic model. This allows for direct consideration of feedbacks between irrigation demand and groundwater depth. Special attention is paid to system dynamics in order to characterized spatial variability in irrigation demand and response to increased irrigation stress. A total of 80 years of simulation are completed for the Little Washita Basin in Southwestern Oklahoma, USA spanning a range of agricultural development scenarios and management practices. Results show regionally aggregated irrigation impacts consistent with other studies. However, here a spectral analysis reveals that groundwater-fed irrigation is also shown to amplify the annual streamflow cycle while dampening longer-term cyclical behavior with increased irrigation during climatological dry periods. Feedbacks between the managed and natural system are clearly observed with respect to both irrigation demand and utilization when water table depths are within a critical range. Although the model domain is heterogeneous with respect to both surface and subsurface parameters, relationships between irrigation demand, water table depth and irrigation utilization are consistent across space and between scenarios. Still, significant local heterogeneities are observed both with respect to transient behavior and response to stress. Spatial analysis of transient behavior shows that farms with groundwater depths within a critical depth range are most sensitive to management changes. Differences in behavior highlight the importance of groundwater's role in system dynamics in addition to water availability.

Description: Including positive feedbacks in hydrological models has recently been shown to result in complex behavior with multiple steady states. When a large disturbance, say a major drought, is simulated within such models the hydrology changes. Once the disturbance ends the hydrology does not return to that prior to the disturbance, but rather, persists within an alternate state. These multiple steady states (henceforth attractors ) exist for a single model parameterization and cause the system to have a finite resilience to such transient disturbances. A limitation of past hydrological resilience studies is that multiple attractors have been identified using mean annual or mean monthly forcing. Considering that most hydrological fluxes are subject to significant forcing stochasticity and do not operate at such large time scales, it remains an open question whether multiple hydrological attractors can exist when a catchment is subject to stochastic daily forcing. This question is the focus of this paper and it needs to be addressed prior to searching for multiple hydrological attractors in the field. To investigate this, a previously developed semi-distributed hill-slope ecohydrological model was adopted which exhibited multiple steady states under average monthly climate forcing. In this paper, the ecohydrological model was used to explore if feedbacks between the vegetation and a saline water table result in two attractors existing under daily stochastic forcing. The attractors and the threshold between them (henceforth repellor ) were quantified using a new limit cycle continuation technique that up-scaled climate forcing from daily to monthly (model and limit cycle code is freely available). The method was used to determine the values of saturated lateral hydraulic conductivity at which multiple attractors exist. These estimates were then assessed against time-integration estimates, which they agreed with. Overall, multiple attractors where found to exist under stochastic daily forcing. However, changing the climate forcing from monthly to daily did significantly reduce the parameter range over which two attractors existed. This suggests fewer catchments may have multiple attractors than previously considered.

Description: The companion paper showed that multiple steady state groundwater levels can exist within a hill-slope Boussinesq-vegetation model under daily stochastic forcing. Using a numerical limit-cycle continuation algorithm, the steady states (henceforth attractors ) and the threshold between them (henceforth repellor ) were quantified at a range of saturated lateral conductivity values, . This paper investigates if stochastic daily forcing can switch the catchment between both of the attractors. That is, an attractor may exist under average forcing conditions but can stochastic forcing switch the catchment into and out of each of the attractor basins?; i.e. making the attractor emerge . This was undertaken using the model of the companion paper and by completing daily time-integration simulations at six values of the saturated lateral hydraulic conductivity, ; three having two attractors and three having only a deep water table attractor. By graphically analyzing the simulations, and comparing against simulations from a model modified to have only one attractor, multiple attractors were found to emerge under stochastic daily forcing. However, the emergence of attractors was significantly more subtle and complex than that suggested by the companion paper. That is, an attractor may exist but never emerge; both attractors may exist and both may emerge but identifying the switching between attractors was often ambiguous; and only one attractor may exist and but a second temporary attractor may exist and emerge during periods of high precipitation. This subtle and complex emergence of attractors was explained using continuation analysis of the climate forcing rate, and not a model parameter such as . It showed that the temporary attractor existed over a large range of values and this suggests that more catchments may have multiple attractors than suggested by the companion paper. By combining this continuation analysis with the time-integration simulations, hydrological signatures indicative of a switch of multiple attractors were proposed. These signatures may provide a means for identifying actual catchments that have switched between multiple attractors.

Description: ABSTRACT A large-time analytical solution is proposed for the spatial variance and coefficient of variation of the depth-averaged concentration due to instantaneous, cross-sectionally uniform solute sources in pseudo-rectangular open channel flows. The mathematical approach is based on the use of the Green functions and on the Fourier decomposition of the depth-averaged velocities, coupled with the method of the images. The variance spatial trend is characterized by a minimum at the center of the mass and two mobile, decaying symmetrical peaks which, at very large times, are located at the inflexion points of the average Gaussian distribution. The coefficient of variation, which provides an estimate of the expected percentage deviation of the depth-averaged point concentrations about the section-average, exhibits a minimum at the center which decays like t -1 and only depends on the river diffusive time-scale. The defect of cross-sectional mixing quickly increases with the distance from the center, and almost linearly at large times. Accurate numerical Lagrangian simulations were performed to validate the analytical results in pre-asymptotic and asymptotic conditions, referring to a particularly representative sample case for which cross-sectional depth and velocity measurements were known from a field survey. In addition, in order to discuss the practical usefulness of computing large-time concentration spatial moments in river flows, and resorting to directly measured input data, the order of magnitude of section-averaged concentrations and corresponding coefficients of variation was estimated in field conditions and for hypothetical contamination scenarios, considering a unit normalized mass impulsively injected across the transverse section of 81 U.S. rivers.

Description: Two major causes of salt marsh loss are vertical drowning, when sediment accumulation on the platform cannot keep vertical pace with sea level rise, and horizontal retreat, associated with wave-induced marsh boundary erosion. Despite these processes having been extensively documented and modeled, is unclear which loss modality dominates given a set of environmental parameters. A three-point dynamic model was developed to predict marsh loss as a function of sea level rise, allochthonous sediment supply, wind regime, tidal range, and marsh bank and mudflat erodability. Marsh horizontal and vertical evolution was found to respond in opposing ways to wave induced erosion processes. Marsh horizontal retreat was triggered by large mudflats, strong winds, high erodability of marsh bank and mudflat, whereas the opposite conditions acted to reduce the sediment supply to the marsh platform, promoting marsh loss to drowning. With low and moderate rates of sea level rise (~ 5 mm/yr), retreat was found to be a more likely marsh loss modality than drowning. However, conditions associated with marsh retreat also increase the system resilience by transferring sediment on the marsh platform and preventing drowning. Our results suggest the use of a modular strategy for short-term marsh management: selectively protect extensive salt marsh regions by maintaining healthy vegetation on the platform, while allowing other areas to retreat, leveraging the natural resilience embedded in the lateral loss of marsh extent.

Description: Observational data and the Princeton Urban Canopy Model, with its detailed representation of urban heterogeneity and hydrological processes, are combined to study evaporation and turbulent water vapor transport over urban areas. The analyses focus on periods before and after precipitation events, at two sites in the Northeastern United States. Our results indicate that while evaporation from concrete pavements, building rooftops and asphalt surfaces is discontinuous and intermittent, overall these surfaces accounted for nearly 18% of total latent heat fluxes (LE) during a relatively wet 10-day period. More importantly, these evaporative fluxes have a significant impact on the urban surface energy balance, particularly during the 48 hours following a rain event when impervious evaporation is the highest. Thus, their accurate representation in urban models is critical. Impervious evaporation after rainfall is also shown to correlate the sources of heat and water at the earth surface, resulting in a conditional scalar transport similarity over urban terrain following rain events.

Description: The spatial and temporal dynamics of seasonal snow covers play a critical role for many hydrological, ecological, and climatic processes. This paper presents a new, innovative approach to continuously monitor these dynamics using numerous low-cost, standalone snow monitoring stations (SnoMoS). These stations provide snow and related meteorological data with a high temporal and spatial resolution. Data collected by SnoMoS include: snow depth, surface temperature, air temperature and humidity, total precipitation, global radiation, wind speed, and barometric pressure. A total of 99 sensors were placed over the winters 2010/11 and 2011/12 at multiple locations within three 40 - 180 km² basins in the Black Forest region of Southern Germany. The locations were chosen to cover a wide range of slopes, elevations, and expositions in a stratified sampling design. Furthermore, “paired stations” located in close proximity to each other, one in the open and one underneath various forest canopies, were set up to investigate the influence of vegetation on snow dynamics. The results showed that considerable differences in snow depth and, therefore, snow water equivalent (SWE) are present within the study area despite its moderate temperatures and medium elevation range (400 - 1500 m). The relative impact of topographical factors like elevation, aspect, and of different types of forest vegetation were quantified continuously and were found to change considerably over the winter period. The recorded differences in SWE and snow cover duration were large enough that they should be considered in hydrologic and climate models.

Description: Integrated land surface-groundwater models are valuable tools in simulating the terrestrial hydrologic cycle as a continuous system and exploring the extent of land surface–subsurface interactions from catchment to regional scales. However, the fidelity of model simulations is impacted not only by the vegetation and subsurface parameterizations, but also by the antecedent condition of model state variables, such as the initial soil moisture, depth to groundwater and ground temperature. In land surface modeling, a given model is often run repeatedly over a single year of forcing data until it reaches an equilibrium state: the point at which there is minimal artificial drift in the model state or prognostic variables (most often the soil moisture). For more complex coupled and integrated systems, where there is an increased computational cost of simulation and the number of variables sensitive to initialization is greater than in traditional uncoupled land surface modeling schemes, the challenge is to minimize the impact of initialization while using the smallest spin-up time possible. In this study, multi-criteria analysis was performed to assess the spin-up behavior of the ParFlow.CLM integrated groundwater-surface water-land surface model over a 208 km 2 sub-catchment of the Ringkobing Fjord catchment in Denmark. Various measures of spin-up performance were computed for model state variables such as the soil moisture and groundwater storage, as well as for diagnostic variables such as the latent and sensible heat fluxes. The impacts of initial conditions on surface water–groundwater interactions were then explored. Our analysis illustrates that the determination of an equilibrium state depends strongly on the variable and performance measure used. Choosing an improper initialization of the model can generate simulations that lead to a misinterpretation of land surface-subsurface feedback processes and result in large biases in simulated discharge. Estimated spin-up time from a series of spin-up functions revealed that 20 (or 21) years of simulation were sufficient for the catchment to equilibrate according to at least one criterion at the 0.1% (0.01%) threshold level. Amongst a range of convergence metrics examined, percentage changes in monthly values of groundwater and unsaturated zone storages produced a slow system convergence to equilibrium, whereas criteria based on ground temperature allowed a more rapid spin-up. Slow convergence of unsaturated and saturated zone storages is a result of the dynamic adjustment of the water table in response to a physically arbitrary or inconsistent initialization of a spatially uniform water table. Achieving equilibrium in subsurface storage ensured equilibrium across a spectrum of other variables, hence providing a good measure of system-wide equilibrium. Overall, results highlight the importance of correctly identifying the key variable affecting model equilibrium and also the need to use a multi-criteria approach to achieve a rapid and stable model spin-up.

Description: In this paper, we perform a detailed regional analysis of the link between meteorological drought indices and streamflow for a comprehensive Austrian dataset of 47 small to medium-size catchments in humid-temperate climate. Four drought indices considering different components of the catchment water balance are tested. We assess the quality of the link using rank correlation analysis, and the probability of detecting low flow events by hit-scores. Overall, correlations range between 0.4 and 0.8 and differ significantly between regions. A stratified analysis shows that the link is much stronger (i) for summer low flows and droughts than for anomalies in general, and (ii) for more humid than more arid conditions. Under more humid conditions streamflow droughts of small to medium-size catchments are to a large extent generated by climate forcing and therefore well represented by a simple meteorological index. Under increasingly dry conditions, the climate signal gets less predictive and storage properties of the underground become more important. A simple soil moisture accounting scheme (such as those of the Palmer index) can considerably improve the correlations. Overall, we conclude there is a significant link between meteorological drought and streamflow drought, except for catchments where groundwater storage and snow processes are important. The results are encouraging and provide a wealth of information which can profitably be used to set up statistical prediction models to estimate low flows from meteorological time series.

Description: Water resources in the western United States are contingent on interannual variations in snowpack. Interannual snowpack variability has been attributed to large-scale climate patterns including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), however the contribution of snowfall frequency and extreme snowfall events to this variability are less well quantified. Long term records from Snowpack Telemetry and Cooperative Observer Program stations in the eleven western states were used to investigate these relationships by considering the number of snowfall days and snowfall water equivalent (SFE) of extreme snowfall events. The top decile of snowfall events contributed 20-38% of annual SFE, depending on the region. An average of 65% and 69% of the interannual variability in annual SFE was explained by snowfall days and SFE of top decile snowfall events, respectively, with extreme events being a more significant predictor at most stations. The latitudinal dipole in SFE during ENSO phases results from changes in snowfall frequency and extreme events. In the Pacific Northwest, above normal SFE during La Niña winters was a product of both larger contributions from extremes and more snowfall days, while below normal SFE during El Niño winters was primarily associated with a substantial reduction in extremes. Conversely, annual SFE during ENSO phases in the mountains of Arizona was more closely linked to fluctuations in snowfall days than extremes. Results indicate the importance of extreme snowfall events in shaping interannual variability in water resources and suggest that improved predictive ability may inform better water resource management now and in the coming decades.

Description: Cell-centered finite volume methods are prevailing in numerical simulation of flow in porous media. However, due to the lack of cell-centered finite volume methods for mechanics, coupled flow and deformation is usually treated either by coupled finite-volume-finite element discretizations, or within a finite element setting. The former approach is unfavorable as it introduces two separate grid structures, while the latter approach loses the advantages of finite volume methods for the flow equation. Recently we proposed a cell-centered finite volume method for elasticity. Herein we explore the applicability of this novel method to provide a compatible finite volume discretization for coupled hydro-mechanic flows in porous media. We detail in particular the issue of coupling terms, and show how this is naturally handled. Furthermore, we observe how the cell-centered finite volume framework naturally allows for modeling fractured and fracturing porous media through internal boundary conditions. We support the discussion with a set of numerical examples: The convergence properties of the coupled scheme are first investigated; Secondly, we illustrate the practical applicability of the method both for fractured and heterogeneous media.

Description: The spatiotemporal distribution of Land Surface Temperature (LST) is linked to the partitioning of the coupled surface water and energy budgets. In watersheds with a strong seasonality in precipitation and vegetation cover, the temporal evolution of LST patterns are a signature of the interactions between the land surface and atmosphere. Nevertheless, few studies have sought to understand the topographical and ecohydrological controls on LST in regions of complex terrain. Numerical watershed models, tested against spatially-distributed field and remote sensing data, can aid in linking the seasonal evolution of LST to meteorology, terrain, soil and vegetation. In this study, we use a distributed hydrologic model to explore LST patterns in a semiarid mountain basin during the transition from a dry spring to the wetter North American monsoon (NAM). By accounting for vegetation greening through remotely-sensed parameters, the model reproduces LST and surface soil moisture observations derived from ground, aircraft and satellite platforms with good accuracy at individual sites and as spatial basin patterns. Distributed simulations reveal how LST varies with elevation, slope and aspect and the role played by the seasonal vegetation canopy in cooling the land surface and increasing the spatial variability in LST. As a result, LST is shown to track well with ecosystem-specific changes in vegetation cover, evapotranspiration and soil moisture during the NAM. Furthermore, vegetation greening is shown to modulate the spatial heterogeneity of LST during the NAM that should be considered in subsequent atmospheric studies in regions of complex terrain.

Description: Models of landscape evolution or hydrological processes typically depend on the accurate determination of upslope drainage area from digital elevation data, but such calculations can be very computationally demanding when applied to high-resolution topographic data. To overcome this limitation, we propose calculating drainage area in an implicit, iterative manner using linear solvers. The basis of this method is a recasting of the flow routing problem as a sparse system of linear equations, which can be solved using established computational techniques. This approach is highly parallelizable, enabling data to be spread over multiple computer processors. Good scalability is exhibited, rendering it suitable for contemporary high-performance computing architectures with many processors, such as graphics processing units (GPUs). In addition, the iterative nature of the computational algorithms we use to solve the linear system creates the possibility of accelerating the solution by providing an initial guess, making the method well suited to iterative calculations such as numerical landscape evolution models. We compare this method with a previously proposed parallel drainage area algorithm and present several examples illustrating its advantages, including a continent-scale flow routing calculation at 3 arcsecond resolution, improvements to models of fluvial sediment yield, and acceleration of drainage area calculations in a landscape evolution model. We additionally describe a modification that allows the method to be used for parallel basin delineation.

Description: ABSTRACT Rising development costs and growing concerns over environmental impacts have led many communities to explore more diversified water management strategies. These 'portfolio'-style approaches integrate existing supply infrastructure with other options such as conservation measures or water transfers. Diversified water supply portfolios have been shown to reduce the capacity and costs required to meet demand, while also providing greater adaptability to changing hydrologic conditions. However, this additional flexibility can also cause unexpected reductions in revenue (from conservation) or increased costs (from transfers). The resulting financial instability can act as a substantial disincentive to utilities seeking to implement more innovative water management techniques. This study seeks to design portfolios that employ financial tools (e.g. contingency funds, index insurance) to reduce fluctuations in revenues and costs, allowing these strategies to achieve improved performance without sacrificing financial stability. This analysis is applied to the development of coordinated regional supply portfolios in the 'Research Triangle' region of North Carolina, an area comprising four rapidly growing municipalities. The actions of each independent utility become interconnected when shared infrastructure is utilized to enable inter-utility transfers, requiring the evaluation of regional tradeoffs in up to five performance and financial objectives. Diversified strategies introduce significant tradeoffs between achieving reliability goals and introducing burdensome variability in annual revenues and/or costs. Financial mitigation tools can mitigate the impacts of this variability, allowing for an alternative suite of improved solutions. This analysis provides a general template for utilities seeking to navigate the tradeoffs associated with more flexible, portfolio-style management approaches.

Description: Despite significant advances during the last decades, there are still many processes related to non-equilibrium flow and transport in macroporous soil that are far from completely understood. The use of X-ray for imaging time-lapse 3-D solute transport has a large potential to help advance the knowledge in this field. We visualized the transport of potassium iodide (20 g iodide l -1 H 2 O) front through a small undisturbed soil column (height 3.8 cm, diameter 6.8 cm) under steady-state hydraulic conditions using an industrial X-ray scanner. In addition, the electrical conductivity was measured in the effluent solution during the experiment. We attained a series of seventeen 3-D difference images which we related to iodide concentrations using a linear calibration relationship. The solute transport through the soil mainly took place in two cylindrical macropores, by-passing more than 90% of the bulk soil volume during the entire experiment. From these macropores the solute diffused into the surrounding soil matrix. We illustrated the properties of the investigated solute transport by comparing it to a 1-D convective-dispersive transport and by calculating the temporal evolution of the dilution index. We furthermore showed that the tracer diffusion from one of the macropores into the surrounding soil matrix could not be exactly fitted with the cylindrical diffusion equation. We believe that similar studies will help establish links between soil structure and solute transport processes and lead to improvements in models for solute transport through undisturbed soil.

Description: A semi-analytical grid-free series solution method is presented for modeling 3-D steady-state free boundary groundwater-surface water exchange in geometrically complex stratified aquifers. Continuous solutions for pressure in the subsurface are determined semi-analytically, as is the location of the water table surface. Mass balance is satisfied exactly over the entire domain except along boundaries and interfaces between layers, where errors are shown to be acceptable. The solutions are derived and demonstrated on a number of test cases and the errors are assessed and discussed. This accurate and grid-free scheme can also be a helpful tool for providing insight into lake-aquifer and stream-aquifer interactions. Here, it is used to assess the impact of lake sediment geometry and properties on lake-aquifer interactions. Various combinations of lake sediment are considered and the appropriateness of the Dupuit-Forchheimer approximation for simulating lake bottom flux distribution is investigated. In addition, the method is applied to a test problem of surface seepage flows from a complex topographic surface; this test case demonstrated the method's efficacy for simulating physically realistic domains.

Description: This article is aimed at quantifying and discussing the relative magnitude of key terms of the equation of conservation of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) in the inter-stem space of a flow within arrays of vertical cylinders simulating plant stems of emergent and rigid vegetation. The spatial distribution of turbulent quantities and mean flow variables are influenced by two fundamental space scales, the diameter of the stems and the local stem areal number-density. Both may vary considerably since the areal distribution of plant stems in natural systems is generally not homogeneous; they are often arranged in alternating sparse and dense patches. The magnitude of the terms of the budget of TKE in the inter-stem space has seldom been quantified experimentally and is currently not well-known. This work addresses this research need. New databases, consisting of three-component LDA velocity series and two-component PIV velocity maps, obtained in carefully controlled laboratory conditions, were used to calculate the terms of the TKE budget. The physical system comprises random arrays of rigid and emergent cylinders with longitudinally varying areal number-density. It is verified that the main source of TKE is vortex shedding from individual cylinders. The rates of production and dissipation are not in equilibrium. Regions with negative production, a previously unreported feature, are identified. Turbulent transport is particularly important along the von Kármán vortex street. Convective rate of change of TKE and pressure diffusion are most relevant in the vicinity of the cylinders.

Description: A major difficulty in modeling multiphase flow in porous media is the emergence of trapped phases. Our experiments demonstrate that gas can be trapped in either single-pores, multi-pores, or in large connected networks. These large connected clusters can comprise up to 8 grain-volumes and can contain up to 50% of the whole trapped gas volume. About 85% of the gas volume is trapped by multi-pore gas clusters. This variety of possible trapped gas clusters of different shape and volume will lead to a better process understanding of bubble-mediated mass transfer. Since multi-pore gas bubbles are in contact with the solid surface through ultra-thin adsorbed water films the interfacial area between trapped gas clusters and intergranular capillary water is only about 80% of the total gas surface. We could derive a significant (R 2 = 0.98) linear relationship between the gas-water-interface and gas saturation. We found no systematic dependency of the front velocity of the invading water phase in the velocity range from 0.1 to 0.6 cm/min corresponding to capillary numbers from 2×10 -7 to 10 -6 . Our experimental results indicate that the capillary trapping mechanism is controlled by the local pore structure and local connectivity and not by thermodynamics, i.e. by the minimum of the Free Energy , at least in the considered velocity range. Consistent with this physical picture is our finding that the trapping frequency (= bubble-size distribution) reflects the pore-size distribution for the whole range of pore radii, i.e. the capillary trapping process is determined by statistics and not by thermodynamics.

Description: Hydrological and geochemical processes controlling the pore water chemistry in a permafrost wetland, with loam overlain by sphagnum peat, were investigated. The vertical distributions of dissolved Cl, and of pore water δ 18 O, appeared unrelated to ion freeze-out and isotope ice-water fractionation processes, respectively, dismissing solute freeze-out as a main control on the water chemistry. However, concentrations of major ions, others than Cl, generally increased with depth into the active layer. A conceptual model for water and solute movement in the active layer was derived. The model indicates upwards diffusive transport of elements, released in the loam layer by mineral weathering, to the peat layer, in which lateral advective transport dominates. Active layer pore water and water of melted core sections of permafrost were of Ca-Mg-HCO 3 type (1:1:4 stoichiometry) and were subsaturated for calcite and dolomite. The results are consistent with an annual cycling of inorganic carbon species, Ca and Mg, via cryogenic carbonate precipitation during fall freeze-up and their re-dissolution following spring thaw. Similarly, elevated Fe 2+ concentrations appear to be related to cryogenic siderite formation. Pore water in the active layer showed high partial pressures CO 2 , indicating the feasibility of bubble ebullition as a greenhouse gas emission pathway from permafrost wetlands. Elevated concentrations of geogenic trace elements (Ni, Al and As) were observed, and the controlling geochemical processes are discussed. The conceptual model for water and solute movement was applied to quantify the contribution of released trace elements to a downstream lake in the permafrost catchment.

Description: Like many mountainous areas in the tropics, watersheds in the Luquillo Mountains of eastern Puerto Rico have abundant rainfall and stream discharge, and provide much of the water supply for the densely populated metropolitan areas nearby. Projected changes in regional temperature and atmospheric dynamics as a result of global warming suggest that water availability will be affected by changes in rainfall patterns. It is essential to understand the relative importance of different weather systems to water supply to determine how changes in rainfall patterns, interacting with geology and vegetation, will affect the water balance. To help determine the links between climate and water availability, stable-isotope signatures of precipitation from different weather systems were established to identify those that are most important in maintaining streamflow and groundwater recharge. Precipitation stable isotope values in the Luquillo Mountains had a large range, from fog/cloud water with δ 2 H, δ 18 O values as high as +12 ‰, −0.73 ‰, to tropical storm rain with values as low as −127 ‰, −16.8 ‰. Temporal isotope values exhibit a reverse seasonality from those observed in higher latitude continental watersheds, with higher isotopic values in the winter and lower values in the summer. Despite the higher volume of convective and low-pressure system rainfall, stable isotope analyses indicated that under the current rainfall regime, frequent trade-wind orographic showers contribute much of the groundwater recharge and stream baseflow. Analysis of rain events using 20 years of 15-minute resolution data at a mountain station (643 m) showed an increasing trend in rainfall amount, in agreement with increased precipitable water in the atmosphere, but differing from climate model projections of drying in the region. The mean intensity of rain events also showed an increasing trend. The determination of recharge sources from stable isotope tracers indicates that water supply will be affected if regional atmospheric dynamics change trade-wind orographic rainfall patterns in the Caribbean.

Description: By introducing two scalar quantities, namely, the Gini and Lorenz asymmetry coefficients, we examined their characteristics and applicability to the global analysis of changes in river flow regimes under future climate change. First, by applying these coefficients to river discharge data, we showed that various types of flow-duration curves can be interpreted quantitatively in terms of the seasonal inequality in the discharge (i.e., the unevenness of the temporal distribution of river discharge). Their statistical characteristics, based on five theoretical distribution functions frequently used in hydrological analysis, were also shown. Next, we used these coefficients to evaluate the seasonal inequality of major global rivers using the global hydrological model H08 for four 30-year time spans (1960-1989, 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099) under four climate-change scenarios. We used ensembles of hydrological simulation results with five general circulation models. From the analysis of the Gini coefficient, future changes in seasonal inequality show a contrasting geographical pattern: a decreasing trend at high northern latitudes and an increasing trend in most other areas. The Lorenz asymmetry coefficient shows large changes at high northern latitudes, attributable to major shifts in the flow regime accompanied by different snow-melting properties under different future climate scenarios. Although a flow-duration curve is a pictorial representation of river discharge suitable for one specific site, by depicting the geographical distribution of these two coefficients along river channels, different characteristics of flow-duration curves at different sites can be detected, even within the same river basin.

Description: A semi-analytical solution is presented for transient streaming potentials associated with flow to a pumping well in an unconfined aquifer, taking into account the effect of flow in the unsaturated zone above the water table. Flow in the unsaturated zone is modeled with a linearized form of Richards' equation using an exponential model for soil moisture retention and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity. Archie's law is invoked for unsaturated electrical conductivity. The unsaturated electrokinetic coupling coefficient is modeled with a decaying exponential, where the maximum value is at and below the water table. The coupled flow and electrokinetic problem is solved using Laplace and Hankel transforms. The results of the model predicted behavior are presented and compared to that observed in laboratory simulations of pumping tests. The early-time polarity reversal predicted the model is observable in the experiments. Other non-monotonic streaming potential behaviors predicted by the model are also evident in experimental measurements. The model is used to estimate hydraulic parameters from SP data and these compare well to those obtained from drawdown data. For example, a hydraulic conductivity of 3.6 × 10 -4 m/s is obtained from SP data compared to 3.4 × 10 -4 m/s from drawdown data.

Description: Saline conditions induce not only chemical but physical changes in swelling clays, and have a significant influence on the crack dynamics and morphology of desiccating clays. In this study, we used X-ray micro-tomography to experimentally investigate the effects of sodium chloride on the morphology and dynamics of desiccation cracks in three-dimensional mixtures of sand-bentonite slurry under varying rheological conditions. Rectangular glass containers were packed with slurries of different salt concentrations, with the top boundary exposed to air for evaporation. The growth and propagation of the cracking network that subsequently formed was visualized in 3D at multiple intervals. The characterization of cracking and branching behavior shows a high extent of localized surficial crack networks at low salinity, with a transition to less extensive but more centralize crack networks with increased salinity. The observed behavior was described in the context of the physicochemical properties of the montmorillonite clay, where shifts from an “entangled” (large platelet spacing, small pore structure) to a “stacked” (small platelet spacing, open pore structure) network influence fluid distribution and thus extent of cracking and branching behavior. This is further corroborated by vertical profiles of water distribution, which shows localized desiccation fronts that shift to uniform desaturation with increasing salt concentration. Our results provide new insights regarding the formation, dynamics, and patterns of desiccation cracks formed during evaporation from 3D saline clay structures, which will be useful in hydrological applications including water management, land surface evaporation, and subsurface contaminant transport.

Description: Climate reconstructions using tree rings and lake sediments have contributed significantly to the understanding of Holocene climates. Approaches focused specifically on reconstructing the temporal water-level response of lakes, however, are much less developed. This paper describes a statistical correlation approach based on time series with Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) values derived from instrumental records or tree rings as a basis for reconstructing stage hydrographs for closed-basin lakes. We use a distributed lag correlation model to calculate a variable, ω t that represents the water level of a lake at any time t as a result of integrated climatic forcing from preceding years. The method was validated using both synthetic and measured lake-stage data and the study found that a lake's “memory” of climate fades as time passes, following an exponential-decay function at rates determined by the correlation time lag. Calculated trends in ω t for Moon Lake, Rice Lake, and Lake Mina from AD 1401 to 1860 compared well with the established chronologies (salinity, moisture, and Mg/Ca ratios) reconstructed from sediments. This method provides an independent approach for developing high-resolution information on lake behaviors in pre-instrumental times and has been able to identify problems of climate signal deterioration in sediment-based climate reconstructions in lakes with a long time lag.

Description: This study explores groundwater management policies and the effect of modeling assumptions on the projected performance of those policies. The study compares an optimal economic allocation for groundwater use subject to streamflow constraints, achieved by a central planner with perfect foresight, with a uniform tax on groundwater use and a uniform quota on groundwater use. The policies are compared with two modeling approaches, the Optimal Control Model (OCM) and the Multi-Agent System Simulation (MASS). The economic decision models are coupled with a physically based representation of the aquifer using a calibrated MODFLOW groundwater model. The results indicate that uniformly applied policies perform poorly when simulated with more realistic, heterogeneous, myopic, and self-interested agents. In particular, the effects of the physical heterogeneity of the basin and the agents undercut the perceived benefits of policy instruments assessed with simple, single-cell groundwater modeling. This study demonstrates the results of coupling realistic hydrogeology and human behavior models to assess groundwater management policies. The Republican River Basin, which overlies a portion of the Ogallala aquifer in the High Plains of the United States, is used as a case study for this analysis.

Description: Over the last few decades, automatic sensors that record groundwater levels at high-frequency intervals have become widely used in groundwater monitoring practice. These sensors provide large amounts of data regarding diurnal groundwater fluctuations, which can be treated as stochastic periodic time series. In this study, a simple relationship between the average standard deviation of diurnal groundwater level fluctuations and the daily evapotranspiration over relatively short periods (days or weeks) was developed for estimating groundwater consumption by phreatophytes in arid/semi-arid areas. Our approach allows estimating groundwater evapotranspiration ( ET g ) using stable statistical characteristics of diurnal groundwater fluctuations, and it is useful for analyzing large amounts of data obtained from digital groundwater level monitoring sensors. A comparison of the ET g results from a synthetic set of groundwater level fluctuations with predefined values shows that this technique behaves consistently and is robust. A numerical analysis of one-dimensional saturated-unsaturated water flow to a root system using Richards' equation indicates that this method provides a reliable estimate of ET g when the basic assumptions of the White method [ White , 1932] are met. The method was also applied to two phreatophyte-dominated riparian sites in New Mexico to demonstrate its usefulness, which provides better results than the commonly used White method [ White , 1932].

Description: This article presents a methodology for planning new water resources infrastructure investments and operating strategies in a world of climate change uncertainty. It combines a real options (e.g., options to defer, expand, contract, abandon, switch use, or otherwise alter a capital investment) approach with principles drawn from robust decision-making (RDM). RDM comprises a class of methods that are used to identify investment strategies that perform relatively well, compared to the alternatives, across a wide range of plausible future scenarios. Our proposed framework relies on a simulation model that includes linkages between climate change and system hydrology, combined with sensitivity analyses that explore how economic outcomes of investments in new dams vary with forecasts of changing runoff and other uncertainties. To demonstrate the framework, we consider the case of new multipurpose dams along the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. We model flexibility in design and operating decisions – the selection, sizing, and sequencing of new dams, and reservoir operating rules. Results show that there is no single investment plan that performs best across a range of plausible future runoff conditions. The decision-analytic framework is then used to identify dam configurations that are both robust to poor outcomes and sufficiently flexible to capture high upside benefits if favorable future climate and hydrological conditions should arise. The approach could be extended to explore design and operating features of development and adaptation projects other than dams.

Description: Several approaches have been developed in the literature for solving flow and transport at the pore-scale. Some authors use a direct modeling approach where the fundamental flow and transport equations are solved on the actual pore-space geometry. Such direct modeling, while very accurate, comes at a great computational cost. Network models are computationally more efficient because the pore-space morphology is approximated. Typically, a mixed cell method (MCM) is employed for solving the flow and transport system which assumes pore-level perfect mixing. This assumption is invalid at moderate to high Peclet regimes. In this work, a novel Eulerian perspective on modeling flow and transport at the pore-scale is developed. The new streamline splitting method ( SSM ) allows for circumventing the pore-level perfect mixing assumption, while maintaining the computational efficiency of pore-network models. SSM was verified with direct simulations and validated against micromodel experiments; excellent matches were obtained across a wide range of pore-structure and fluid-flow parameters. The increase in the computational cost from MCM to SSM is shown to be minimal, while the accuracy of SSM is much higher than that of MCM and comparable to direct modeling approaches. Therefore, SSM can be regarded as an appropriate balance between incorporating detailed physics and controlling computational cost. The truly predictive capability of the model allows for the study of pore-level interactions of fluid flow and transport in different porous materials. In this paper, we apply SSM and MCM to study the effects of pore-level mixing on transverse dispersion in 3D disordered granular media.

Description: Airborne-based Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) offers the potential to measure snow depth and vegetation structure at high spatial resolution over large extents and thereby increase our ability to quantify snow water resources. Here, we present airborne LiDAR data products at four Critical Zone Observatories (CZO) in the Western United States: Jemez River Basin, NM, Boulder Creek Watershed, CO, Kings River Experimental Watershed, CA, and Wolverton Basin, CA. We make publicly available snow depth data products (1-m 2 resolution) derived from LiDAR with an estimated accuracy of 〈30 cm compared to limited in situ snow depth observations.

Description: ABSTRACT Long-term prediction of environmental response to natural and anthropogenic disturbances in a basin becomes highly uncertain using physically-based distributed models, particularly when transport time scales range from tens to thousands of years, such as for sediment. Yet, such predictions are needed as changes in one part of a basin now might adversely affect other parts of the basin in years to come. In this paper we propose a simplified network-based predictive framework of sedimentological response in a basin, which incorporates network topology, channel characteristics, and transport-process dynamics to perform a non-linear process-based scaling of the river-network width function to a time-response function. We develop the process-scaling formulation for transport of mud, sand, and gravel, using simplifying assumptions including neglecting long-term storage, and apply the methodology to the Minnesota River Basin. We identify a robust bimodal distribution of the sedimentological response for sand of the basin which we attribute to specific source areas, and identify a resonant frequency of sediment supply where the disturbance of one area followed by the disturbance of another area after a certain period of time, may result in amplification of the effects of sediment inputs which would be otherwise difficult to predict. We perform a sensitivity analysis to test the robustness of the proposed formulation to model parameter uncertainty and use observations of suspended sediment at several stations in the basin to diagnose the model. The proposed framework has identified an important vulnerability of the Minnesota River Basin to spatial and temporal structuring of sediment delivery.

Description: As changes in precipitation dynamics continue to alter the water availability in dryland ecosystems, understanding the feedbacks between the vegetation and the hydrologic cycle and their influence on the climate system is critically important. We designed a field campaign to examine the influence of two-layer soil moisture control on bare and canopy albedo dynamics in a semiarid shrubland ecosystem. We conducted this campaign during 2011 and 2012 within the tower footprint of the Santa Rita Creosote Ameriflux site. Albedo field measurements fell into one of four Cases within a two-layer soil moisture framework based on permutations of whether the shallow and deep soil layers were wet or dry. Using these Cases, we identified differences in how shallow and deep soil moisture influence canopy and bare albedo. Then, by varying the number of canopy and bare patches with in gridded framework, we explore the influence of vegetation and soil moisture on ecosystem albedo. Our results highlight the importance of deep soil moisture in land surface – atmosphere interactions through its influence on aboveground vegetation characteristics. For instance, we show how green-up of the vegetation is triggered by deep soil moisture, and link deep soil moisture to a decrease in canopy albedo. Understanding relationships between vegetation and deep soil moisture will provide important insights into feedbacks between the hydrologic cycle and the climate system.

Description: The majority of particulate organic matter standing stock in streams is less than one millimeter in diameter, and the mobile phase is primarily very fine particles. Such fine particles transport downstream in a series of deposition and resuspension events mediated by interactions with coarser bed sediment, yielding fine particle retention over a wide range of timescales. This retention controls the opportunity for biogeochemical processing of particulate organic carbon in streams. We present a conceptual model of particulate organic carbon transport in rivers categorized in three cyclic processes: I) Migration of fine particles from the water column to the underlying and surrounding sediments, II) Fine particle transport and retention within the bed sediments, and III) Resuspension of fine particles back to the water column. We developed a stochastic model to describe the transport and retention of fine suspended particles in rivers, including advective delivery of particles to the streambed, transport through porewaters, and reversible filtration within the streambed. We then apply this model to observations of fine particle transport in two small streams, and show that the stochastic mobile-immobile model supports improved interpretation of particulate organic carbon dynamics under baseflow conditions. Analysis of in-stream solute and particle data shows that particles engage in multiple deposition and resuspension events during downstream transport, and that long-term retention in the streambed produces extended slow releases to the stream even during baseflow conditions. We also show how multi-scale stochastic modeling can be used to incorporate local observations of particle retention in predictions of whole-stream particle dynamics.

Description: A critical hydrological process is the interaction between rivers and aquifers. However, accurately determining this interaction from one method alone is difficult. At a point, the water exchange in the riverbed can be determined using temperature variations over depth. Over the river reach, differential gauging can be used to determine averaged losses or gains. This study combines these two methods and applies them to a 34 km reach of a semi-arid river in eastern Australia under highly transient conditions. It is found that high and low river flows translate into high and low riverbed Darcy fluxes, and that these are strongly losing during high-flows, and only slightly losing or gaining for low-flows. The spatial variability in riverbed Darcy fluxes may be explained by riverbed heterogeneity, with higher variability at greater spatial scales. Although the river-aquifer gradient is the main driver of riverbed Darcy flux at high-flows, considerable uncertainty in both the flux magnitude and direction estimates were found during low-flows. The reach scale results demonstrate that high-flow events account for 64% of the reach loss (or 43% if overbank events are excluded) despite occurring only 11% of the time. By examining the relationship between total flow volume, river stage and duration for in-channel flows, we find the loss ratio (flow loss / total flow) can be greater for smaller flows than larger flows with similar duration. Implications of the study for the modelling and management of connected water resources are also discussed.

Description: Groundwater flow in karst includes exchange of water between large fractures, conduits, and the surrounding porous matrix, which impacts both water quality and quantity. Electrical resistivity tomography combined with End-Member Mixing Analysis (EMMA) and numerical flow and transport modeling was used to study mixing of karst conduit and matrix waters to understand spatial and temporal patterns of mixing during high flow and baseflow conditions. To our knowledge this is the first time EMMA and synthetic geophysical simulations have been combined. Here, we interpret an eight-week time-lapse electrical resistivity data set to assess groundwater-surface mixing. We simulate flow between the karst conduits and the porous matrix to determine fractions of water recharged to conduits that has mixed with groundwater stored in the pore space of the matrix using a flow and transport model in a synthetic time-lapse resistivity inversion. Comparing the field and synthetic inversions, our results enable us to estimate exchange dynamics, spatial mixing, and flow conditions. Results showed that mixing occurred at a volumetric flux of 56 m 3 /d with a dispersivity around 1.69 m during the geophysical experiment. For these conditions it was determined that conduit water composition ranged from 75% groundwater during baseflow conditions to less than 50% groundwater in high flow conditions. Though subject to some uncertainties, the time-lapse inversion process provides a means to predict changing hydrologic conditions, leading to mixing of surface water and ground water and thus changes to water quantity and quality, as well as potential for water-rock reactions, in a semi-confined, sink-rise system.

Description: We measured wood piece characteristics and particulate organic matter (POM) in stored sediments in 30 channel-spanning logjams along headwater streams in the Colorado Front Range, USA. Logjams are on streams flowing through old-growth (〉 200 years), disturbed (〈 200 years, natural disturbance), or altered (〈 200 years, logged) subalpine conifer forest. We examined how channel-spanning logjams influence riverine carbon storage (measured as the total volatile carbon fraction of stored sediment and instream wood). Details of carbon storage associated with logjams reflect age and disturbance history of the adjacent riparian forest. A majority of the carbon within jams is stored as wood. Wood volume is significantly larger in old-growth and disturbed reaches than in altered reaches. Carbon storage also differs in relation to forest characteristics. Sediment from old-growth streams has significantly higher carbon content than altered streams. Volume of carbon stored in jam sediment correlates with jam wood volume in old-growth and disturbed forests, but not in altered forests. Forest stand age and wood volume within a jam explain 43% of the variation of carbon stored in jam sediment. First-order estimates of the amount of carbon stored within a stream reach show an order of magnitude difference between disturbed and altered reaches. Our first-order estimates of reach-scale riverine carbon storage suggest that the carbon per hectare stored in streams is on the same order of magnitude as the carbon stored as dead biomass in terrestrial subalpine forests of the region. Of particular importance, old-growth forest correlates with more carbon storage in rivers.

Description: The exchange of water between the surface and subsurface environments plays a crucial role in hydrological, biogeochemical, and ecological processes. The exchange of water is driven by the local morphology of the streambed (hyporheic exchange) and the regional forcing of a large-scale hydraulic gradient, which results in losing or gaining flow conditions. We measured the effects of losing and gaining flow conditions on hyporheic exchange fluxes in a sandy streambed using a novel laboratory flume system (640 cm long and 30 cm wide) under a combination of average overlying velocities and losing/gaining fluxes. Hyporheic exchange fluxes were analyzed based on a new conceptual framework. This combination of experimental observations and modeling revealed that hyporheic exchange fluxes under losing and gaining flow conditions are similar. Because interfacial transport increases proportionally to the square of the overlying velocity, and linearly with increasing fluxes of losing and gaining conditions in the sand bed, the hyporheic exchange flux becomes smaller when the losing or gaining flux increases. Thus, losing and gaining flow conditions become the dominant mechanisms of water exchange at a certain flux, which depends on the competitive interaction between the overlying velocity in the stream and the losing/gaining fluxes.

Description: The situation of multi–phase flow with varying salinity through rock formations with micro–porosity plays a key role in many applications. Experimental data for single phase flow through rocks with micro–porosity show that chemical osmosis can lead to osmotic pressures in the range of several mega–pascal, but the effect of osmosis on multi–phase flow so far has received little attention. Pore–networks can be used to investigate these effects, but crucially depend on expressions for capillary entry pressures. Here, we extend the classical theory for capillary entry–pressures to the case where chemical potentials play a role. The inclusion of osmosis results into a ‘capillary–osmotic’ pressure that also depends on salinity differences and temperature. Consequently, also the pore–scale events of piston–like displacement and snap–off depend on salinity contrasts and temperature and not only on pore–geometry as has been assumed so far. Examples show that even small salinity differences can lead to significantly different entry pressures and changed pore invasion sequences compared to if osmosis is absent. We show that the ensemble behaviour with osmosis often is identical to the case where the medium partly has become more water–wet, which implies that osmosis might have a strong impact on laboratory–scale quantities, but also that their detection in experiments will be challenging. Hence, chemical gradients could be important drivers of multi–phase flow in rocks with micro–porosity, and should be included into flow models which currently is not the case.

Description: The influence that the evolution of the ENSO cycle has on the moisture transport from the major oceanic moisture sources is investigated using a sophisticated Lagrangian approach informed by ERA-interim data, together with composites of ENSO phases. When maintaining the sources of moisture defined for the climatological period 1980-2012, the variations in the moisture sinks associated with each of these evaporative sources throughout the ENSO cycle reproduce the known patterns of variations of the large-scale atmospheric and precipitation systems over this cycle. Such variations include those observed in rainfall over the equatorial Pacific, in the major Summer monsoon systems, and in subtropical rainfall. When the areas of the sources were redefined according to the phase of ENSO, most of them remained stationary over the period of interest, nevertheless four of them showed notable differences in terms of their extents, namely the South Pacific and the Coral Sea (Pacific Ocean); the Mexican Caribbean (Atlantic), and the Arabian Sea (Indian).

Description: An experimental drought monitoring tool has been developed that predicts the vegetation condition (Vegetation Outlook) using a regression tree technique at a monthly time-step during the growing season in Eastern Africa. This prediction tool (VegOut-Ethiopia) is demonstrated for Ethiopia as a case study. VegOut-Ethiopia predicts the standardized values of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at multiple time steps (weeks to months into the future) based on analysis of “historical patterns” of satellite, climate, and oceanic data over historical records. The model underlying VegOut-Ethiopia capitalizes on historical climate–vegetation interactions and ocean–climate teleconnections (such as El Niño and the Southern Oscillation [ENSO]) expressed over the 24-year data record and also considers several environmental characteristics (e.g., land cover and elevation) that influence vegetation's response to weather conditions to produce 8km maps that depict future general vegetation conditions. VegOut-Ethiopia could provide vegetation monitoring capabilities at local, national, and regional levels that can complement more traditional remote sensing-based approaches that monitor “current” vegetation conditions. The preliminary results of this case study showed that the models were able to predict the vegetation stress (both spatial extent and severity) in drought years one to three months ahead during the growing season in Ethiopia. The correlation coefficients between the predicted and satellite-observed vegetation condition range from 0.50 to 0.90. Based on the lessons learned from past research activities and emerging experimental forecast models, future studies are recommended that could help Eastern Africa in advancing knowledge of climate, remote sensing, hydrology, and water resources.

Description: The development of new quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) technologies open new opportunities for measurements of mass transport in porous media. The current work examines a simple miscible displacement process of H 2 O and D 2 O in porous media samples. Laboratory measurements of dispersion in porous media traditionally monitor the effluent intensity of an injected tracer. We employ MRI to obtain quantitative water saturation profiles, and to measure dispersion in rock core plugs. The saturation profiles are modeled with PHREEQC, a fluid transport modeling program. We demonstrate how independent magnetic resonance measurements can be employed to estimate three important input parameters for PHREEQC, mobile porosity, immobile porosity and dispersivity. Bulk CPMG T 2 distribution measurements were undertaken to estimate mobile and immobile porosity. Bulk alternating-pulsed-gradient-stimulated-echo (APGSTE) measurements were undertaken to measure dispersivity. The imaging method employed, T 2 mapping Spin Echo Single Point Imaging (SE-SPI), also provides information about the pore size distributions in the rock cores, and how the fluid occupancy of the pores changes during the displacement process.

Description: We investigate the effect of different saturation histories relevant to various oil displacement processes (including secondary and tertiary gas injections) on three-phase gas/oil/brine relative permeabilities of a water-wet sandstone. It is found that three-phase water (wetting phase) relative permeability is primarily a function of water saturation and shows no dependency upon saturation history. Three-phase gas (non-wetting phase) relative permeability is also a function of gas saturation as well as the direction of gas saturation change. Three-phase relative permeability to oil (intermediate-wetting phase) appears to depend on all phase saturations, and saturation history have no significant impact on it. Three-phase oil relative permeability shows weak sensitivity to initial oil saturation prior to gas injection. The functional forms of oil relative permeability with saturation, particularly at low oil saturations, are also examined. It is observed that, at high oil saturations where networks of oil-filled elements govern oil flow, oil relative permeability exhibits a quartic form with oil saturation whereas, at low oil saturations where flow is believed to be controlled by layer drainage, it shows a quadratic form . The quadratic form of three-phase oil relative permeability is consistent with the theoretical interpretation of layer drainage at the pore scale.

Description: This study develops a method for estimating surface energy fluxes (surface sensible heat flux ( H ), latent heat flux ( LE ), and soil heat flux ( G )) simultaneously from continuous observations of surface temperature ( T s ), air temperature ( T a ), and net radiation ( R n ) without calculating various resistances. First, H , LE , and G are parameterized by some constant parameters that remain fairly invariant during a given day and some known functions related to T s and T a . Second, these constant parameters are solved by a minimization technique based on surface energy balance. Data from ground-based measurements at the Yucheng station were used to evaluate the performance of the developed method. Results show that the simplified parameterization schemes well reproduce H , LE , and G with a root mean square error (RMSE) of ~20 W/m 2 at the instantaneous timescale, and perform better at the daily scale. For the estimates of H , LE , and G using the known T s , T a , and R n measured at the Yucheng station as inputs, the RMSE is ~60 W/m 2 at the instantaneous timescale, and ~20 W/m 2 at the daily scale. The requirement of continuous observations throughout a day in the developed method could be met by remotely sensed data from geostationary meteorological satellites. Fewer input variables and the obviation of calculating various resistances give the method the potential to generate surface fluxes over a large area.

Description: Five characteristics (intensity or magnitude, duration, frequency, timing and variability) of drought, defined using the threshold level method (TLM) and recorded in mean annual water levels in Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River from 1918 to 2010, were compared. Timing is the only characteristic that is different for the two water bodies. For Lake Ontario, the most intense drought occurred in the 1930's, whereas in the St. Lawrence River, intense droughts took place in the 1960's and 2000's. The Lake Ontario drought produced two shifts in mean before (decrease) and after (increase) the 1930's. The change in variance that took place in the 1960's is thought to be related to the construction of locks during the digging of the seaway. The droughts that affected the St. Lawrence River had no impact on the stationarity (mean and variance) of the annual mean water level series. Analysis of the correlation between drought severity and climate indices revealed that years characterized by very weak to moderate drought are significantly correlated with PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), while those characterized by intense drought are correlated with NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). Both climate indices are negatively correlated with Lake Ontario water levels, while they are positively correlated with St. Lawrence River levels. The study suggests that NAO may be used to predict the driest years for the two water bodies.

Description: Residence time distributions (RTDs) have been used extensively for quantifying flow and transport in sub-surface hydrology. In geochemical approaches environmental tracer concentrations are used in conjunction with simple lumped parameter models (LPMs). Conversely numerical simulation techniques require large amounts of parameterisation and estimated RTDs are certainly limited by associated uncertainties. In this study we apply a non-parametric deconvolution approach to estimate RTDs using environmental tracer concentrations. The model is based only on the assumption that flow is steady enough that the observed concentrations are well approximated by linear superposition of the input concentrations with the RTD; that is, the convolution integral holds. Even with large amounts of environmental tracer concentration data, the entire shape of an RTD remains highly non-unique. However, accurate estimates of mean ages and in some cases prediction of young portions of the RTD may be possible. The most useful type of data was found to be the use of a time series of tritium. This was due to the sharp variations in atmospheric concentrations and a short half-life. Conversely, the use of CFC compounds with smoothly varying atmospheric concentrations was more prone to non-uniqueness. This work highlights the benefits and limitations of using environmental tracer data to estimate whole RTDs with either LPMs or through numerical simulation. However, the ability of the non-parametric approach developed here to correct for mixing biases in mean ages appears promising.

Description: ABSTRACT Land use practices have caused stream channel incision and water-table decline in many montane meadows of the Western United States. Incision changes the magnitude and timing of streamflow in water supply source watersheds, a concern to resource managers and downstream water users. The hydrology of montane meadows under natural and incised conditions was investigated using watershed simulation for a range of hydrologic conditions. The results illustrate the interdependence between: watershed and meadow hydrology; bedrock and meadow aquifers; and, surface and groundwater flow through the meadow for the modeled scenarios. During the wet season, stream incision resulted in less overland flow and interflow and more meadow recharge causing a net decrease in streamflow and increase in groundwater storage relative to natural meadow conditions. During the dry season, incision resulted in less meadow evapotranspiration and more groundwater discharge to the stream causing a net increase in streamflow and a decrease in groundwater storage relative to natural meadow conditions. In general, for a given meadow setting, the magnitude of change in summer streamflow and long-term change in watershed groundwater storage due to incision will depend on the combined effect of: reduced evapotranspiration in the eroded meadow; induced groundwater recharge; replenishment of dry season groundwater storage depletion in meadow and bedrock aquifers by precipitation during wet years; and groundwater storage depletion that is not replenished by precipitation during wet years.

Description: We conduct a hedonic analysis to estimate the response of agricultural land use to water supply information under the Prior Appropriation Doctrine by using Idaho as a case study. Our analysis includes long-term weather trends and water supply conditions as well as seasonal water supply forecasts. A farm-level panel data set, which accounts for the priority effects of water rights and controls for diversified crop mixes and rotation practices, is used. Our results indicate that farmers respond to long-term surface and ground water conditions as well as to the seasonal water supply variation. Climate change-induced variations in weather and water supply conditions could lead to substantial damages to irrigated agriculture. We project substantial losses (up to 32%) of the average crop revenue for major agricultural areas under future climate scenarios in Idaho. Finally, farmers demonstrate significantly varied responses given their water rights priorities, which implies that the distributional impact of climate change is sensitive to institutions such as the Prior Appropriation Doctrine.

Description: Given the critical role of the streamflow regime for instream, riparian, and floodplain ecosystem sustainability, modeling the long-term effect of urbanization on streamflow is important to predict possible changes in stream ecosystems. Since flow duration curves are largely used to characterize the streamflow regime and define indices for stream ecosystem health, we present two stochastic models, with different levels of complexity, that link the key physical features of urbanized basins with rainfall variability to determine the resulting flow duration curves. The two models are tested against 11 basins with various degrees of urban development, characterized by the percentage of impervious areas in the basin. Results show that the more complex model needs to be used to reproduce accurately the entire flow duration curve. The analysis performed suggests that the transformation of green (i.e., water used in evapotranspiration) to blue (i.e., streamflow) water in urbanized basins is an important long-term source of ecohydrological alteration. The modeling scheme also provides useful links between rainfall variability, urbanization levels, and some streamflow indices of high and low flows.

Description: A new stochastic high-resolution synoptically conditioned weather generator (HiReS-WG) appropriate for climate regimes with a substantial proportion of convective rainfall is presented. The simulated rain fields are of high spatial (0.5 x 0.5 km 2 ) and temporal (5 min) resolution and can be used for most hydrological applications. The WG is composed of four modules: the synoptic generator, the motion vector generator, the convective rain cell generator and the low-intensity rainfall generator. The HiReS-WG was applied to a study region on the northwestern Israeli coastline in the Eastern Mediterranean, for which 12-year weather radar and synoptic data were extensively analyzed to derive probability distributions of convective rain cells and other rainfall properties for different synoptic classifications; these distributions were used as input to the HiReS-WG. Simulated rainfall data for 300 years were evaluated for annual rain depth, season timing, wet-/dry-period durations, rain-intensity distributions and spatial correlations. In general, the WG well-represented the above properties compared to radar and rain-gauge observations from the studied region, with one limitation—an inability to reproduce the most extreme cases. The HiReS-WG is a good tool to study catchments' hydrological responses to variations in rainfall, especially small- to medium-size catchments, and it can also be linked to climate models to force the prevailing synoptic conditions.

Description: A hydrologic modeling dataset is presented for water years 2006 through 2012 from the Senator Beck Basin (SBB) study area. SBB is a high altitude, 291 ha catchment in southwest Colorado exhibiting a continental, radiation-driven, alpine snow climate. Elevations range from 3362m at the SBB pour point to 4118m. Two study plots provide hourly forcing data including precipitation, wind speed, air temperature and humidity, global solar radiation, downwelling thermal radiation, and pressure. Validation data include snow depth; reflected solar radiation; snow surface infrared temperature, soil moisture, temperatures, and heat flux; and stream discharge. Snow water equivalence and other snowpack properties are captured in snowpack profiles. An example of snow cover model testing using SBB data is discussed. Serially complete datasets are published including both measured data as well as alternative, corrected data and, in conjunction with validation data, expand the physiographic scope of published mountain system hydrologic data sets in support of advancements in snow hydrology modeling and understanding.

Description: Including satellite derived snow cover data for hydrologic model calibration can be a good way to improve model internal consistency. This study applied a multiobjective genetic algorithm to characterize the trade-off curve between model performance in terms of discharge and snow cover area (SCA). Using a Monte Carlo based approach we further investigated the additional information content of an increasing number of SCA scenes used in the calibration period. The study was performed in six snowmelt dominated headwater catchments of the Karadarya Basin in Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia, using the hydrological model WASA and snow cover data from four melt seasons retrieved from AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer). We generally found only small trade-offs between good simulations with respect to discharge and SCA, but good model performance with respect to discharge did not exclude low performance in terms of SCA. On average, the snow cover error in the validation period could be reduced by very few images in the calibration period. Increasing the number of images resulted in only small further improvements. However, using only a small number of images involves the risk that these particular images cause the selection of parameter sets which are not representative for the catchment. It is therefore advisable to use a larger number of images. In this study, it was necessary to include at least 10 to 16 images.

Description: The paper appraises two approaches for the treatment of heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation in residual errors of hydrological models. Both approaches use weighted least squares (WLS), with heteroscedasticity modelled as a linear function of predicted flows and autocorrelation represented using an AR(1) process. In the first approach, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation parameters are inferred jointly with hydrological model parameters. The second approach is a two-stage “postprocessor” scheme, where Stage 1 infers the hydrological parameters ignoring autocorrelation and Stage 2 conditionally infers the heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation parameters. These approaches are compared to a WLS scheme that ignores autocorrelation. Empirical analysis is carried out using daily data from 12 US catchments from the MOPEX set [ Duan et al. , 2006] using 2 conceptual rainfall-runoff models, GR4J and HBV. Under synthetic conditions, the postprocessor and joint approaches provide similar predictive performance, though the postprocessor approach tends to underestimate parameter uncertainty. However, the MOPEX results indicate that the joint approach can be non-robust. In particular, when applied to GR4J, it often produces poor predictions due to multiway interactions between a hydrological water balance parameter and error model parameters. The postprocessor approach is more robust precisely because it ignores these interactions. The practical value of accounting for error autocorrelation is demonstrated by aggregating streamflow predictions to a monthly scale – if autocorrelation is ignored, predictive uncertainty is strongly underestimated. Including error autocorrelation also significantly affects calibrated parameter values and uncertainty estimates. The paper concludes with a summary of outstanding challenges in residual error modelling, particularly in ephemeral catchments.

Description: Medium heterogeneity affects reaction kinetics by controlling the mixing of reactant particles, but the linkage between medium properties and reaction kinetics is difficult to build, even for simple, relatively homogeneous media. This study aims to explore the dynamics of bimolecular reactions, aniline + 1,2-naphthoquinone-4-sulfonic acid → 1,2-naphthoquinone-4-aminobenzene, in relatively homogeneous flow cells. Laboratory experiments were conducted to monitor the transport of both conservative and reactive tracers through columns packed with silica sand of specific diameters. The measured tracer breakthrough curves exhibit subdiffusive behavior with a late-time tail becoming more pronounced with decreasing sand size, probably due to the segregated flow regions formed more easily in columns packed with smaller size sand. Numerical analysis using a novel Lagrangian model shows that subdiffusion has a two-fold effect on bimolecular reactions. While subdiffusion enhances the power-law growth rate of product mass by prolonging the exposure of reactant particles in the depletion zone, the global reaction rate is constrained because subdiffusion constrains the mobility of reactant particles. Reactive kinetics in deceptively simple homogeneous media is therefore controlled by subdiffusion, which is sensitive to the dimensions of packed sand.

Description: Roughly one-third of the Earth's land surface is seasonally covered by snow. In many of these ecosystems, the spring snowpack is melting earlier due to climatic warming and atmospheric dust deposition, which could greatly modify soil water resources during the growing season. Though snowmelt timing is known to influence soil water availability during summer, there is little known about the depth of the effects and how long the effects persist. We therefore manipulated the timing of seasonal snowmelt in a high elevation mixed-conifer forest in a Mediterranean climate during consecutive wet and dry years. The snow-all-gone (SAG) date was advanced by six days in the wet year and three days in the dry year using black sand to reduce the snow surface albedo. To maximize variation in snowmelt timing, we also postponed the SAG date by eight days in the wet year and 16 days in the dry year using white fabric to shade the snowpack from solar radiation. We found that deeper soil water (30 to 60 cm) did not show a statistically significant response to snowmelt timing. Shallow soil water (0 to 30 cm), however, responded strongly to snowmelt timing. The drying effect of accelerated snowmelt lasted two months in the 0 to 15 cm depth and at least four months in the 15 to 30 cm depth. Therefore, the legacy of snowmelt timing on soil moisture can persist through dry periods, and continued earlier snowmelt due to climatic warming and windblown dust could reduce near-surface water storage and availability to plants and soil biota.

Description: Analytical models of river evolution predict meander narrowing and elongation which creates sinuosity-driven hyporheic exchange across the meander neck, by decreasing flow distance and increasing head loss. We used a laboratory river table and close range photogrammetry to map and analyze sinuosity as a driver of head gradients and hyporheic exchange during cutoff. The river valley had relatively high slopes (1.8%) and moderately cohesive sediment (10% talc, 90% sand) to facilitate cutoff, and ratios of horizontal to vertical scaling were distorted to achieve dynamic similitude ( Re = 3200). Incipient to cutoff, the head gradient across the neck increased due to a narrowing neck, upstream aggradation, and downstream degradation. Longitudinal and transverse river surface slopes around the meander bend increased as the meander approached cutoff. The steep head gradient across the moderately cohesive meander neck generated seepage erosion and scour that formed a low sinuosity avulsion. Sediment-rich flow in the avulsed channel aggraded the downstream bed and separated the active channel and oxbow lake. The limitation in geometric and dynamic similitude in the river table limits extrapolation to natural rivers, yet river evolution may involve aggradation and degradation induced channel head loss and turnover hyporheic exchange as well as seepage-induced meander neck erosion. Our sub-millimeter maps of meander morphology and water stage provide data to parameterize river evolution and hyporheic exchange models, and may inform analysis and mapping of field sites.

Description: The shallow aquifer on the Gnangara Mound, north of Perth, Western Australia, is recharged by winter rainfall. Water infiltrates through a sandy Podosol where cemented accumulation (B-) horizons are common. They are water retentive and may impede recharge. To observe wetting fronts and the influence of soil horizons on unsaturated flow, we deployed time-lapse borehole radar techniques sensitive to soil moisture variations during an annual recharge cycle. Zero Offset crosswell Profiling (ZOP) and Vertical Radar Profiling (VRP) measurements were performed at six sites on a monthly basis before, during and after annual rainfall in 2011. Water content profiles are derived from ZOP logs acquired in closely spaced wells. Sites with small separation between wells present potential repeatability and accuracy difficulties. Such problems could be lessened by i) ZOP saturated zone velocity matching of time-lapse curves, and ii) matching of ZOP and VRP results. The moisture contents for the baseline condition and subsequent observations are computed using the Topp-relationship. Time-lapse moisture curves reveal characteristic vadose zone infiltration regimes. Examples are I) full recharge potential after 200 mm rainfall, II) delayed wetting and impeded recharge and III) no recharge below 7 m depth. Seasonal infiltration trends derived from long-term time-lapse neutron logging at several sites are shown to be comparable with infiltration trends recovered from time-lapse crosswell radar measurements. However, radar measurements sample a larger volume of earth while being safer to deploy than the neutron method which employs a radioactive source. For the regime III) site where time-lapse radar indicates no net recharge or zero flux to the water table, a simple water balance provides an evapotranspiration value of 620 mm for the study period. This value compares favorably to previous studies at similar test sites in the region. Our six field examples demonstrate application of time-lapse borehole radar for characterizing rainfall infiltration.

Description: While river-borne materials are recognized as important resources supporting coastal ecosystems around the world, estimates of river export from the North Slope of Alaska have been limited by a scarcity of water chemistry and river discharge data. This paper quantifies water, nutrient, and organic matter export from the three largest rivers (Sagavanirktok, Kuparuk, Colville) that drain Alaska's North Slope and discusses the potential importance of river inputs for biological production in coastal waters of the Alaskan Beaufort Sea. Together these rivers export ~297,000 metric tons of organic carbon and ~18,000 metric tons of organic nitrogen each year. Annual fluxes of nitrate-N, ammonium-N, and soluble reactive phosphorus are approximately 1750, 200, and 140 metric tons per year respectively. Constituent export from Alaska's North Slope is dominated by the Colville River. This is in part due to its larger size, but also because constituent yields are greater in the Colville watershed. River-supplied nitrogen may be more important to productivity along the Alaskan Beaufort Sea coast than previously thought. However, given the dominance of organic nitrogen export, the potential role of river-supplied nitrogen in support of primary production depends strongly on remineralization mechanisms. Although rivers draining the North Slope of Alaska make only a small contribution to overall river export from the pan-arctic watershed, comparisons with major arctic rivers reveal unique regional characteristics as well as remarkable similarities among different regions and scales. Such information is crucial for development of robust river export models that represent the arctic system as a whole.

Description: The thermal stratification of the Dead Sea was observed in high spatial and temporal resolution by means of fiber optics temperature sensing. The aim of the research was to employ the novel high resolution profiler in studying the dynamics of the thermal structure of the Dead Sea and the related processes including the investigation of the metalimnion fluctuations. The 18 cm resolution profiling system was placed vertically through the water column supported by a buoy 450 m from shore, from 2 m above to 53 m below the water surface (just above the local sea floor), covering the entire seasonal upper layer (the metalimnion had an average depth of ~20 m). Temperature profiles were recorded every 5 min. The May-July 2012 data set allowed quantitative investigation of the thermal morphology dynamics, including objective definitions of key locations within the metalimnion based on the temperature depth profile and its first and second depth derivatives. Analysis of the fluctuation of the defined metalimnion locations showed strong anti-correlation to measured sea level fluctuations. The slope of the sea level versus metalimnion depth was found to be related to the density ratio of the upper layer and the underlying main water body, according to the prediction of a two-layer model. The heat content of the entire water column was calculated by integrating the temperature profiles. The vertically integrated apparent heat content was seen to vary by 50% in a few hours. These fluctuations were not correlated to the atmospheric heat fluxes, nor to the momentum transfer, but were highly correlated to the metalimnion and the sea level fluctuations (r=0.84). The instantaneous apparent heat flux was three orders of magnitude larger than that delivered by radiation, with no direct correlation to the frequency of radiation and wind in the lake. This suggests that the source of the momentary heat flux is lateral advection due to internal waves (with no direct relation to the diurnal cycle). In practice, it is shown that snap-shot profiles of the Dead Sea as obtained with standard thermal profilers will not represent the seasonal typical status in terms of heat content of the upper layer.

Description: Three-dimensional hydrodynamic z -layer models, which are used for simulating the flow in rivers, estuaries and oceans, suffer from an inaccurate and often discontinuous bottom shear stress representation, due to the staircase bottom. We analyze the governing equations and clearly show the cause of the inaccuracies. Based on the analysis, we present a new method that significantly reduces the errors and the grid dependency of the results. The method consists of a near-bed layer-remapping and a modified near-bed discretization of the k – ε turbulence model. We demonstrate the applicability of the approach for uniform channel flow, using a schematized two-dimensional vertical model and for the flow over a bottom sill using the Delft3D modeling system.

Description: Increased knowledge of clusters is essential for the understanding of sediment transport behavior and the monitoring and protection of aquatic life. A physical study using graded river gravels is conducted in a laboratory environment. Using photogrammetry and painted gravels, a cluster identification tool (CIT) is developed based on image subtraction between subsequent frames, allowing identification of any stable areas and groups of particles on the bed. This is combined with digital particle tracking (DPT) to present a novel approach for monitoring the formation and disintegration of clusters. Clusters from graded gravels are formed successfully during the experimental stage, allowing investigation into the complex dynamic behavior of cluster formation and disintegration in a simulated natural environment. Various anchor stone arrangements are used in the experiments. However, only about one fifth of the potential anchor stones on the bed surface enable cluster formation. In general, clusters classified as ‘typical’ and ‘heap’ are most common. Inspection of temporal cluster coverage of the test-bed surface shows that the proportion of clusters present on the surface tends to grow with time. Maximum cluster surface coverage of between 5% and 34% is observed. In addition, particles entering and departing from clusters are monitored. Most commonly, particles enter from directly upstream of the cluster, however more than 20% of particles approach from a direction greater than 20 o from the streamwise direction. Approximately 35% of all particles directly upstream of a cluster bypass the cluster.

Description: Diurnal trends in hydrochemical components of stream and river water, especially nutrients, is growing in interest as instrumentation capable of measuring at fine time scales becomes increasingly available. In this growing body of work there are few studies that simultaneously report the dynamics of the major nutrients nitrate, phosphate, and ammonium through time. We used an in situ nutrient autoanalyzer to simultaneously measure nitrate, phosphate, and ammonium concentrations with wet chemistry methods in an arctic headwater stream. We operated the analyzer under two sampling regimes: (1) time interval (hourly) sampling to examine fine time-scale nutrient dynamics and (2) continuous sampling (1 second data) to evaluate nutrient uptake from a pulse solute addition experiment. Hourly sampling showed inverse diurnal oscillating trends of nitrate and ammonium concentrations for several days during baseflow conditions. We propose that this trend is a result of in-stream nutrient processing (autotrophic demand and nitrification) combined with increased lateral inputs of water from the active (thawed) soil layer at night, after evapotranspiration (ET) has ceased. Pulse additions of ammonium resulted in rapid increases in nitrate concentration, confirming potential magnitude of nitrification in this system. Phosphate concentrations were usually at or below detection limits, consistent with results from previous manual sampling of this stream. We conclude that as studies examining fine timescale nutrient trends in streams and rivers increase, the ability to examine the behavior of multiple nutrients simultaneously will be pertinent to assess the underlying mechanisms driving those trends.

Description: Gas diffusion modeling in percolation clusters provides a theoretical framework to address gas transport in porous materials and soils. Applying this methodology, above the percolation threshold the air-filled porosity dependence of the gas diffusion in porous media follows universal scaling, a power law in the air-filled porosity (less a threshold value) with an exponent of 2.0. We evaluated our hypothesis using 71 experiments (632 data points) including repacked, undisturbed and field measurements available in the literature. For this purpose, we digitized D p / D 0 (where D p and D 0 are gas diffusion coefficients in porous medium and free space, respectively) and ε (air-filled porosity) values from graphs presented in 7 published papers. We found that 66 experiments out of 71 followed universal scaling with the exponent 2, evidence that our percolation-based approach is robust. Integrating percolation and effective medium theories produced a numerical prefactor whose value depends on the air-filled porosity threshold and the air-filled porosity value above which the behavior of gas diffusion crosses over from percolation to effective medium.

Description: The chemical potential of water may play an important role in adsorption and capillary condensation of water under multiphase conditions at geologic CO 2 storage sites. Injection of large volumes of anhydrous CO 2 will result in changing values of the chemical potential of water in the supercritical CO 2 phase. We hypothesize that the chemical potential will at first reflect the low concentration of dissolved water in the dry CO 2 . As formation water dissolves into and is transported by the CO 2 phase, the chemical potential of water will increase. We present a pore-scale model of the CO 2 -water interface or menisci configuration based on the augmented Young-Laplace equation, which combines adsorption on flat surfaces and capillary condensation in wedge-shaped pores as a function of chemical potential of water. The results suggest that, at a given chemical potential for triangular and square pores, liquid water saturation will be less in the CO 2 -water system under potential CO 2 sequestration conditions relative to the air-water vadose zone system. The difference derives from lower surface tension of the CO 2 -water system and thinner liquid water films, important at pore sizes 〈 1×10 -6 m, relative to the air-water system. Water movement due to capillary effects will likely be minimal in reservoir rocks, but still may be important in finer-grained, clayey caprocks, where very small pores may retain water and draw water back into the system via adsorption and capillary condensation, if dry-out and then re-wetting were to occur.

Description: A thorough assessment of evapotranspiration (ET) pervades several important issues of the 21 st century including climate change, food-security, land-management, flood and drought prediction and water resources assessment and management. Such a proper assessment is of particular importance in the Ganga River Basin (GRB) with its backdrop of a rapidly increasing population pressure and unregulated use of water resources. Spatially averaged ET over the GRB is computed as the residual of atmospheric and terrestrial water budget computations using a combination of model simulations and satellite- and ground-based observations. The best estimate of monthly ET is obtained as the monthly mean of atmospheric and terrestrial water balance computations for the period 1980-2007. The mean monthly average of ET from these various estimates is 72.3 ± 18.8 mm month -1 . Monthly variations of ET peak between July and August and reach a minimum in February. For the entire study period, the rate of change of ET across the GRB is -11 mm yr -2 (i.e. mm/year/year). Alongside a notable influence of the 1997-1998 El Niño, results allude to the existence of interim periods during which ET trends varied significantly. More specifically, during the period of 1998-2002, the rate of decline increased to -55.8 mm yr -2 , which is almost 5-times the overall trend. Based on the correlation between ET and independent estimates of near-surface temperature and soil moisture, we can infer that the ET over the GRB is primarily limited by moisture availability. The analysis has important potential for use in large-scale water budget assessments and intercomparison studies. The analysis also emphasizes the importance of synergistic use of mutli-platform hydrologic information.

Description: Seasonal vegetation changes during the North American monsoon play a major role in modifying water, energy and momentum fluxes. Nevertheless, most models parameterize plants as a static component or with averaged seasonal variations that ignore interannual differences and their potential impact on evapotranspiration ( ET ) and its components. Here, vegetation parameters derived from remote sensing data were coupled with a hydrologic model at two eddy covariance (EC) sites with observations spanning multiple summers. Sinaloan thornscrub (ST) and Madrean woodland (MW) sites, arranged at intermediate and high elevations along mountain fronts in northwest Mexico, occupy specific niches related to climate conditions and water availability that are poorly understood. We found that simulations with a dynamic representation of vegetation greening tracked well the seasonal evolution of observed ET and soil moisture ( SM ). A switch in the dominant component of ET from soil evaporation ( E ) to plant transpiration ( T ) was observed for each ecosystem depending on the timing and magnitude of vegetation greening that is directly tied to rainfall characteristics. Differences in vegetation greening at the ST and MW sites lead to a dominance of transpiration at ST ( T/ET = 57%), but evaporation-dominant conditions at MW ( T/ET = 19%). Peak transpiration occurred at five and twenty days after the full canopy development in the ST and MW sites, respectively. These results indicate that evapotranspiration timing and partitioning varies considerably in the two studied ecosystems in accordance with different modes of vegetation greening. Intermediate-elevation ecosystems follow an intensive water use strategy with a rapid and robust transpiration response to water availability. In contrast, higher elevation sites have delayed and attenuated transpiration, suggesting an extensive water use strategy persisting beyond the North American monsoon.

Description: A multireplicate multimodel ensemble of hydrological simulations covering the 1860-2099 period has been produced for the Upper Durance River basin (French Alps). An original quasi-ergodic analysis of variance was applied to quantify uncertainties related to General Circulation Models (GCMs), Statistical Downscaling Models (SDMs) and the internal variability of each GCM/SDM simulation chain. For temperature, GCM uncertainty prevails and SDM uncertainty is non-negligible. Significant warming and in turn significant changes are predicted for evaporation, snow cover and seasonality of discharges. For precipitation, GCM and SDM uncertainty components are of the same order. A high contribution of the large and small scale components of internal variability is also obtained, inherited respectively from the GCMs and the different replicates of a given SDM. The same applies for annual discharge. The uncertainty in values that could be experienced for any given future period is therefore very high. For both discharge and precipitation, even the sign of future realizations is uncertain at a 90% confidence level.These findings have important implications. Similarly to GCM uncertainty, SDM uncertainty cannot be neglected. The same applies for both components of internal variability. Climate change impact studies based on a single SDM realization are likely to be no more relevant than those based on a single GCM run. They may lead to poor decisions for climate change adaptation.

Description: The soil moisture state partitions both mass and energy fluxes and is important for many hydrogeochemical cycles, but is often only measured within the surface layer. Estimating the amount of soil moisture in the root-zone from this information is difficult due to the non-linear and heterogeneous nature of the various processes which alter the soil moisture state. Data-driven methods, such as artificial neural networks (ANN), mine data for non-linear interdependencies and have potential for estimating root-zone soil moisture from surface soil moisture observations. To create an ANN root-zone model that was non-site specific and physically constrained, a training set was generated by forcing HYDRUS-1D with meteorological observations for different soil profiles from the UNSODA database. Ensemble ANNs were trained to provide soil moisture at depths of 10, 20 and 50 cm below the surface using surface soil moisture observations and local meteorological information. Insights into the processes represented by the ANNs were derived from a clamping sensitivity analysis and by changing the ANNs input data. Further model testing based on synthetic soil moisture profiles from three McMaster Mesonet and three USDA SCAN sites suggests that ANNs are a flexible tool capable of predicting root-zone soil moisture with good accuracy. It was found that ANNs could well represent soil moisture as estimated by HYDRUS-1D, but performance was reduced in comparison to in situ soil moisture observations outside the training conditions. The transferability of the model appears limited to the same geographic region.

Description: The role of stream networks and their hydrologic interaction with hillslopes and shallow groundwater in modifying and transporting watershed signals is an area of active research. One of the primary ways that stream networks can modify watershed signals is through spatially variable stream gains and losses, described herein as hydrologic turnover. We measured hydrologic gain and loss at the reach scale using tracer experiments throughout the Bull Trout Watershed in the Sawtooth Mountains of Idaho. We extended the results of reach scale experiments to the stream network using empirical relationships between 1) watershed area and stream discharge, and 2) stream discharge and percent streamwater loss to the groundwater system. We thus incorporate linkages between 1) hillslopes and stream networks via lateral inflows and 2) stream networks and shallow groundwater via hydrologic exchange. We implemented these relationships within a concise analytical framework to simulate hydrologic turnover across stream networks and estimate the variable influence exerted by upstream reaches and streamflow source locations on stream water composition across stream networks. Application to six natural Sawtooth watersheds and seven synthetic watersheds with varying topographic structure and stream network geometry indicated that contributions to discharge from any upstream source depend on the magnitude of the initial input, but also on the distribution of hydrologic turnover occurring along the stream network. The evolution of stream water source compositions along stream networks was unique in each watershed due to the combination of watershed structure and stream network geometry. Our results suggest that a distributed representation of hydrologic turnover at the stream network scale can improve understanding of how the stream network can modify source water compositions along the stream.

Description: Alpine lakes on the Tibetan Plateau are minimally disturbed by human activities and are sensitive indicators of climate variability. Accelerated lake expansion in the 2000s has been confirmed by both dramatic lake-area increases (for 312 lakes larger than 10 km 2 ) derived from optical images, and rapid water-level rises (for 117 lakes with water-level data) measured by satellite altimetry. However, the underlying climate causes remain unclear. This paper analyzes the relationship between the water-level changes of lakes on the plateau and the potential driving factors, such as the glacier meltwater supply and a dependency on precipitation and runoff over the whole plateau and in each zone. The results show that the rates of change of non-glacier-fed lakes in the 2000s were as high as those of glacier-fed lakes across the whole plateau and the lake level changes were closely associated with the lake supply coefficients (the basin/lake area ratio). The lake variations agreed well with the spatial pattern of precipitation changes. However, in different zones, especially at around 33°N north of the plateau, glacier-fed lakes did exhibit faster lake level increases than no-glacier-fed lakes, indicating that the presence of a glacier meltwater supply augmented the precipitation-driven lake expansions in these areas. Despite the absence of quantitative modeling due to limited data availability, this study provides qualitative support that the lake expansions on the Tibetan Plateau in the 2000s have been driven primarily by changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration and not solely by the effect of glacier wastage.

Description: Analytical upscaled models that can describe the depletion of dense non-aqueous-phase-liquids (DNAPLs) and the associated mass discharge are a practical alternative to computationally demanding and data-intensive multiphase numerical simulators. A major shortcoming of most existing upscaled models is that they cannot reproduce the non-monotonic, multi-stage effluent concentrations often observed in experiments and numerical simulations. Upscaled models that can produce multi-stage concentrations either require calibration, which increases the cost of applying them in the field, or use dual-domain conceptual models that may not apply for spatially complex source zones. In this study, a new upscaled model is presented that can describe the non-monotonic, multi-stage average concentrations emanating from complex DNAPL source zones. This is achieved by explicitly considering the temporal evolution of three source zone parameters, namely source zone projected area, the average of local-scale DNAPL saturations, and the average of local-scale aqueous relative permeability, without using empirical parameters. The model is evaluated for two real and twelve hypothetical cm-scale complex source zones. The proposed model captures the temporal variations in concentrations better than an empirical model and a dual-domain ganglia-to-pool ratio model. The results provide evidence that effluent concentrations downgradient of DNAPL source zones are controlled by the evolution of the aforementioned macroscopic parameters. This knowledge can be useful for the interpretation of field observations of effluent concentrations downstream of DNAPL source zones, and for the development of predictive upscaled models. Advances in DNAPL characterization techniques are needed to quantify these macroscopic parameters that can be used to guide DNAPL remediation efforts.

Description: Geological heterogeneity is a very important factor to consider when developing geological models for hydrological purposes. Using statistically based stochastic geological simulations, the spatial heterogeneity in such models can be accounted for. However, various types of uncertainties are associated with both the geostatistical method and the observation data. In the present study, TProGS is used as the geostatistical modeling tool to simulate structural heterogeneity for glacial deposits in a head water catchment in Denmark. The focus is on how the observation data uncertainty can be incorporated in the stochastic simulation process. The study uses two types of observation data: borehole data and airborne geophysical data. It is commonly acknowledged that the density of the borehole data is usually too sparse to characterize the horizontal heterogeneity. The use of geophysical data gives an unprecedented opportunity to obtain high resolution information and thus to identify geostatistical properties more accurately especially in the horizontal direction. However, since such data are not a direct measurement of the lithology, larger uncertainty of point estimates can be expected as compared to the use of borehole data. We have proposed a histogram probability matching method in order to link the information on resistivity to hydrofacies, while considering the data uncertainty at the same time. Transition probabilities and Markov Chain models are established using the transformed geophysical data. It is shown that such transformation is in fact practical; however, the cut-off value for dividing the resistivity data into facies is difficult to determine. The simulated geological realizations indicate significant differences of spatial structure depending on the type of conditioning data selected. It is to our knowledge the first time that grid-to-grid airborne geophysical data including the data uncertainty are used in conditional geostatistical simulations in TProGS. Therefore, it provides valuable insights regarding the advantages and challenges of using such comprehensive data.

Description: The Andes Cordillera remains a sparsely monitored and studied snow hydrology environment in comparison to similar mountain ranges in the Northern Hemisphere. In order to uncover some of the key processes driving snow water equivalent (SWE) spatial variability, we present and analyze a distributed SWE dataset, sampled at the end of accumulation season 2011. Three representative catchments across the region were monitored, obtaining measurements in an elevation range spanning 2000 to 3900 m asl and from 32.4° to 34.0°S in latitude. Climatic conditions during this season corresponded to a moderate La Niña phenomenon, which is generally correlated with lower-than normal accumulation. Collected measurements can be described at the regional and watershed extents by altitudinal gradients that imply an increase by a factor of two in snow depth between 2200 and 3000 m asl, though with significant variability at the upper sites. In these upper sites, we found north-facing, wind-sheltered slopes showing 25% less average SWE values than south-facing, wind-exposed ones. This suggests that under these conditions, solar radiation dominated wind transport effects in controlling end-of-winter variability. Nevertheless, we found clusters of snow depth measurements above 3000 m asl that can be explained by wind exposure differences. This is the first documented snow depth dataset of this spatial extent for this region, and it is framed within an ongoing research effort aimed at improving understanding and modeling of snow hydrology in the extratropical Andes Cordillera.

Description: This paper describes a probabilistic reservoir inflow forecasting system that explicitly attempts to sample from major sources of uncertainty in the modelling chain. Uncertainty in hydrologic forecasts arises due to errors in the hydrologic models themselves, their parameterizations, and in the initial and boundary conditions (e.g., meteorological observations or forecasts) used to drive the forecasts. The Member-to-Member (M2M) ensemble presented herein uses individual members of a numerical weather model ensemble to drive two different distributed hydrologic models, each of which is calibrated using three different objective functions. An ensemble of deterministic hydrologic states is generated by spinning up the daily simulated state using each model and parameterization. To produce probabilistic forecasts, uncertainty models are used to fit probability distribution functions (PDF) to the bias-corrected ensemble. The parameters of the distribution are estimated based on statistical properties of the ensemble and past verifying observations. The uncertainty model is able to produce reliable probability forecasts by matching the shape of the PDF to the shape of the empirical distribution of forecast errors. This shape is found to vary seasonally in the case-study watershed. We present an “intelligent” adaptation to a Probability Integral Transform (PIT)-based probability calibration scheme that relabels raw cumulative probabilities into calibrated cumulative probabilities based on recent past forecast performance. As expected, the intelligent scheme, which applies calibration corrections only when probability forecasts are deemed sufficiently unreliable, improves reliability without the inflation of ignorance exhibited in certain cases by the original PIT-based scheme.