ALBERT

Description: The high elevation of the Southern Puna Plateau, the widespread melting of its crust, the gap in intermediate depth seismicity and the recent eruptions of ignimbrite complexes can be explained by delamination of the lithospheric mantle beneath it. To test this hypothesis, an array consisting of 73 broad band and short period seismic stations was deployed in the region for a period of two years starting in 2007. We inverted the data using the two plane wave approach and obtained 1D and 3D Rayleigh wave phase velocities. Our dispersion curve shows that at short periods (〈70 s) the phase velocities are slightly higher than those of the Tibetan plateau and lower than those of the Anatolian plateau. At periods of 100-140 s we observe a low velocity zone that might be remnant hot asthenosphere below a flat slab (7-10 Ma). We estimate the average continental lithosphere thickness for the region to be between 100 and 130 km. Our three dimensional Rayleigh wave phase velocities show a high velocity anomaly at low frequencies (0.007, 0.008 and 0.009 Hz) slightly to the north of Cerro Galan. This would be consistent with the hypothesis of delamination in which a piece of lithosphere has detached and caused upwelling of hot asthenosphere which in turn caused widespread alkaline-collision related volcanism. This interpretation is also corroborated by our shear wave velocity model where a high velocity anomaly beneath the northern edge of Cerro Galan at 130 km depth is interpreted as the delaminated block on top of the subducting Nazca slab.

Description: At present continental to global scale flood forecasting predicts at a point discharge, with little attention to detail and accuracy of local scale inundation predictions. Yet, inundation variables are of interest and all flood impacts are inherently local in nature. This paper proposes a large scale flood inundation ensemble forecasting model that uses best available data and modeling approaches in data scarce areas. The model was built for the Lower Zambezi River to demonstrate current flood inundation forecasting capabilities in large data-scarce regions. ECMWF ensemble forecast (ENS) data were used to force the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) hydrological model, which simulated and routed daily flows to the input boundary locations of a 2-D hydrodynamic model. Efficient hydrodynamic modeling over large areas still requires model grid resolutions that are typically larger than the width of channels that play a key a role in flood wave propagation. We therefore employed a novel sub-grid channel scheme to describe the river network in detail whilst representing the floodplain at an appropriate scale. The modeling system was calibrated using channel water levels from satellite laser altimetry and then applied to predict the February 2007 Mozambique floods. Model evaluation showed that simulated flood edge cells were within a distance of between one and two model resolutions compared to an observed flood edge and inundation area agreement was on average 86%. Our study highlights that physically plausible parameter values and satisfactory performance can be achieved at spatial scales ranging from tens to several hundreds of thousands of km 2 and at model grid resolutions up to several km 2 .

Description: A class of capillary flows in unsaturated porous media is characterized by quasi-steady viscous flow confined behind curved air-water interfaces and within liquid bodies held by capillary forces along crevices and grain contacts. The geometry of the connected capillary liquid network within the pore space resembles channels that form between adjacent bubbles in foam (Plateau borders) with solid grains representing gas bubbles in foam. For simplified channel geometry we combine expressions for viscous flow with continuity considerations to describe the evolution of the channels cross-sectional area during gravity drainage. This formulation enables modeling of unsaturated flow without invoking the Richards equation and associated hydraulic functions. We adapt a formalism originally developed for foam “free drainage” (drainage under gravity) or “forced drainage” (infiltration front motion) to a class of unsaturated flows in porous media that require a few input parameters only (mean channel corner angle, air entry value and porosity) for certain initial and boundary conditions. We demonstrate that the reduction in capillary channel cross section yields a consistent description of self-regulating internal fluxes towards attainment of the so-called “field capacity” in soil and provides an alternative method for interpretation of outflow experiments for prescribed pressure boundary conditions. Additionally, the geometrically-explicit formulation provides a more intuitive picture of capillary flows across textural boundaries (changes in channel cross-section and number of channels). The foam drainage methodology expands the range of tools available for analyses of unsaturated flow processes and offers more realistic links between liquid configuration and flow dynamics in unsaturated porous media.

Description: Synthetic streamflows at different sites in a river basin are needed for planning, operation and management of water resources projects. Modeling the temporal and spatial dependence structure of monthly streamflow at different sites is generally required. In this study, the maximum entropy copula method is proposed for multisite monthly streamflow simulation, in which the temporal and spatial dependence structure is imposed as constraints to derive the maximum entropy copula. The monthly streamflows at different sites are then generated by sampling from the conditional distribution. A case study for the generation of monthly streamflow at three sites in the Colorado River basin illustrates the application of the proposed method. Simulated streamflow from the maximum entropy copula is in satisfactory agreement with observed streamflow.

Description: The Krycklan Catchment Study (KCS) provides a unique field infrastructure for hillslope to landscape-scale research on short and long-term ecosystem dynamics in boreal landscapes. The site is designed for process-based research assessing the role of external drivers including forest management, climate change, and long-range pollutant transport on forests, mires, soils, streams, lakes and groundwater. The over-arching objectives of KCS are to (1) provide a state-of-the-art infrastructure for experimental and hypothesis driven research, (2) maintain a collection of high quality, long-term climatic, biogeochemical, hydrological and environmental data, and (3) support the development of models and guidelines for research, policy and management.

Description: 3-D Hydraulic Tomography (3-D HT) is a method for aquifer characterization whereby the 3-D spatial distribution of aquifer flow parameters (primarily hydraulic conductivity, K) is estimated by joint inversion of head change data from multiple partially-penetrating pumping tests. While performance of 3-D HT has been studied extensively in numerical experiments, few field studies have demonstrated the real-world performance of 3-D HT. Here we report on a 3-D transient hydraulic tomography (3-D THT) field experiment at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site which is different from prior approaches in that it represents a “baseline” analysis of 3-D THT performance using only a single arrangement of a central pumping well and 5 observation wells with nearly complete pumping and observation coverage at 1m intervals. We jointly analyze all pumping tests using a geostatistical approach based on the quasi-linear estimator of kitanidis [1995]. We reanalyze the system after progressively removing pumping and/or observation intervals; significant progressive loss of information about heterogeneity is quantified as reduced variance of the K field overall, reduced correlation with slug test K estimates at wells, and reduced ability to accurately predict independent pumping tests. We verify that imaging accuracy is strongly improved by pumping and observational densities comparable to the aquifer heterogeneity geostatistical correlation lengths. Discrepancies between K profiles at wells, as obtained from HT and slug tests, are greatest at the tops and bottoms of wells where HT observation coverage was lacking.

Description: Chlorine isotope compositions of high-pressure (~2.3 GPa) serpentinite, rodingite, and hydrothermally altered oceanic crust (AOC) differ significantly from high- and ultrahigh-pressure (〉3.2 GPa) metasedimentary rocks in the Aosta region, Italy. Texturally early serpentinites, rodingites, and AOC have bulk δ 37 Cl values indistinguishable from those of modern seafloor analogues (δ 37 Cl = -1.0 to +1.0‰). In contrast, serpentinites and AOC samples that recrystallized during exhumation have low δ 37 Cl values (-2.7 to -0.5‰); 37 Cl depletion correlates with progressive changes in bulk chemistry. HP/UHP metasediments have low δ 37 Cl values (median = -2.5‰) that differ statistically from modern marine sediments (median = -0.6‰). Cl in metasedimentary rocks is concentrated in texturally early minerals, indicating modification of seafloor compositions early in the subduction history. The data constrain fluid sources during both subduction- and exhumation-related phases of fluid-rock interaction: (1) Marine sediments at the top of the downgoing plate likely interacted with isotopically light pore fluids from the accretionary wedge in the early stages of subduction. (2) No pervasive interaction with externally derived fluid occurred during subsequent subduction to the maximum depths of burial. (3) Localized mixing between serpentinites and fluids released by previously isotopically modified metasediments occurred during exhumation in the subduction channel. Most samples, however, preserved protolith signatures during subduction to near-arc depths.

Description: We have measured Ni, Ca, and Mn in olivine phenocrysts from volcanoes in the Galápagos Archipelago to infer the mantle source lithologies. Results show that peridotite is the dominant source lithology for Fernandina, Floreana, Genovesa, Wolf Island, and Darwin Island. These volcanoes largely characterize the PLUME, WD, FLO and DUM Nd, Sr, and Pb isotopic endmembers of Harpp and White (2001). Volcan Wolf, Alcedo, Marchena, and Cerro Azul, also produced from the melting of peridotite sources, have isotopic compositions that can be defined by mixing of the 4 isotopic endmembers. Our analysis suggests that peridotite was present in the sources of the volcanoes covered in this study and therefore is the dominant source lithology of the Galápagos plume. Pyroxenite melting is generally focused in two isotopically distinct domains: Roca Redonda, Volcan Ecuador, and Sierra Negra in the enriched western part of the archipelago, and Santiago, Santa Cruz, and Santa Fe in the depleted east. One implication of this finding is that the Western and Eastern Pyroxenite Domains represent two separate bodies of recycled crust within the Galápagos mantle plume. Furthermore, both isotopically enriched and depleted domains of the archipelago were generated from mixtures of peridotite and pyroxenite. This suggests that there is no relationship between the source lithology of the Galápagos plume and its isotopic characteristics. The identification of peridotite source melting in volcanoes with isotopic characteristics that have been attributed to recycled crust points to the importance of mixing in OIB genesis, consistent with studies in the Canary Islands.

Description: Probabilistic estimates of future water levels and river discharge are usually simulated with hydrologic models using ensemble weather forecasts as main inputs. As hydrologic models are imperfect and the meteorological ensembles tend to be biased and underdispersed, the ensemble forecasts for river runoff typically are biased and underdispersed, too. Thus, in order to achieve both reliable and sharp predictions statistical post-processing is required. In this work Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is applied to statistically post-process ensemble runoff raw forecasts for a catchment in Switzerland, at lead-times ranging from 1 to 240 hours. The raw forecasts have been obtained using deterministic and ensemble forcing meteorological models with different forecast lead-time ranges. First, BMA is applied based on mixtures of univariate normal distributions, subject to the assumption of independence between distinct lead-times. Then, the independence assumption is relaxed in order to estimate multivariate runoff forecasts over the entire range of lead-times simultaneously, based on a BMA version that uses multivariate normal distributions. Since river runoff is a highly skewed variable, Box-Cox transformations are applied in order to achieve approximate normality. Both univariate and multivariate BMA approaches are able to generate well calibrated probabilistic forecasts that are considerably sharper than climatological forecasts. Additionally, multivariate BMA provides a promising approach for incorporating temporal dependencies into the post-processed forecasts. Its major advantage against univariate BMA is an increase in reliability when the forecast system is changing due to model availability.

Description: Paleomagnetic analysis and radiocarbon dating of an expanded Holocene deep-sea sediment sequence recovered by Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 303 from Labrador Sea Site U1305 (Lat: 57°28.5 N, Long. 48°31.8 W, water depth 3459 m) provides insights into mechanisms that drive both paleomagnetic secular variation (PSV) and magnetization acquisition in deep-sea sediments. Seventeen radiocarbon dates on planktonic foraminifera define postglacial (c. 8 ka) sedimentation rates as ranging from 35 to 〉 90 cm/kyr. Alternating field (AF) demagnetization of u-channel samples show that these homogeneous sediments preserve a strong, stable, and consistently well-defined component magnetization. Normalized remanence records pass reliability criteria for relative paleointensity (RPI) estimates. Assuming that the age of magnetization is most accurately defined by well dated PSV records with the highest sedimentation rates, allows us to estimate and correct for temporal offsets at Site U1305 interpreted to result from post-depositional remanence acquisition at a depth of ~ 20 cm. Comparisons indicate that the northern North Atlantic PSV and RPI records are more consistent with European than North American records, and the evolution of virtual geomagnetic poles (VGP) are temporally and longitudinally similar to global reconstructions, though with much larger latitudinal variation. The largest deviations from a geocentric axial dipole (GAD) are observed during times of the highest intensities, in contrast to the usual assumption. These observations are consistent with the idea that PSV in the North Atlantic and elsewhere during the Holocene results from temporal oscillations of high latitude flux concentrations at a few recurrent locations.

Description: We derive a series solution for the nonlinear Boussinesq equation in terms of the similarity variable of the Boltzmann transformation in a semi-infinite domain. The first few coefficients of the series have been known for a long time, having been obtained by a truncated inversion of the series solution of the Blasius equation, but no direct recurrence relation was known for the complete series representing the solution of the Boussinesq equation. The series turns out to have a finite radius of convergence, which we estimate with a numerical complex-plane integration method that identifies the singularities of the solution when the equation is extended to the complex plane. The homogeneous condition at the origin produces a singularity which complicates numerical solutions with Runge-Kutta methods. We present two variable transformations that circumvent the problem and that are best suited to the complex-variable and the real-variable versions of the equation, respectively. Using those tools, an approximate solution accurate to 1.75 × 10 -10 and valid for the entire positive real axis is then developed by matching a Padé approximant of the exact series and an asymptotic solution (to overcome the restriction imposed by the finite radius of convergence of the series), along the same lines of the expression proposed by Hogarth and Parlange [1999]. The accuracies of all of the existing and the newly proposed solutions are obtained.

Description: Field sampling in unwadeable and flashy flood events encounters the problem that lateral variability of flow hydraulics and sediment transport cannot be captured adequately, and there is also an accuracy problem because parameters change while being measured. Moreover, event based gravel-sand mixed transport data in rapidly changing conditions are largely missing, in particular for gravel-bed rivers in small catchments. In this study, field measurements of bed load, suspended load, flow velocities, water depths and cross section geometry were collected during flood events at a monitoring station near the mouth of the Versilia river, Italy. Since the observed hydrographs are characterized by short durations, to the order of a few hours, an analysis of the lateral and temporal flow variability was carried out to enable the design of a sampling strategy and to minimize the errors created by the time variations of discharge associated with unsteady flow conditions. The measurements were interpreted using a 1D hydro-morphodynamic numerical model simulating the dynamics of flow and sediment discharges during a flood event for a given return period. The flow and sediment rating curves were then developed through an integrated approach combining different methodologies: field measurements, laboratory analyses and mathematical modeling. The developed approach allows one to capture the main physical mechanisms associated to the transport of sand–gravel mixtures, such as selective transport, and the hysteretic behaviour of sediment transport produced by rapid and intense flood events.

Description: ABSTRACT A study was performed to characterize over land precipitation associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) for basins around the world based upon the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS). From 1998 to 2009, data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) product 3B42, showed that TCs accounted for 5.5%, 7.5%, 6%, 9.5%, and 8.9% of the annual precipitation for impacted over land areas of the Americas, East Asia, South and West Asia, Oceania, and East Africa respectively, and that TC contribution decreased significantly within the first 150-km from the coast. Locally, TCs contributed on average to more than 25% and up to 61% of the annual precipitation budget over very different climatic areas with arid or tropical characteristics. East Asia represented the higher and most constant TC rain (118±19% mm y -1 ) normalized over the area impacted, while East Africa presented the highest variability (108±60% mm y -1 ), and the Americas displayed the lowest average TC rain (65±24% mm y -1 ) despite a higher TC activity. Furthermore, the maximum monthly TC contribution (8-11%) was found later in the TC season and depended on the peak of TC activity, TC rainfall, and the domain transition between dry and wet regimes if any. Finally, because of their importance in terms of rainfall amount, the contribution of TCs was provided for a selection of 50 urban areas experiencing cyclonic activity. Results showed that for particularly intense years, urban areas prone to cyclonic activity received more than half of their annual rainfall from TCs.

Description: A multivariate, multi-site daily weather generator is presented for use in decision-centric vulnerability assessments under climate change. The tool is envisioned useful for a wide range of socioeconomic and biophysical systems sensitive to different aspects of climate variability and change. The proposed stochastic model has several components, including 1) a wavelet decomposition coupled to an autoregressive model to account for structured, low-frequency climate oscillations, 2) a Markov Chain and k-nearest-neighbor (KNN) resampling scheme to simulate spatially-distributed, multivariate weather variables over a region, and 3) a quantile mapping procedure to enforce long-term distributional shifts in weather variables that result from prescribed climate changes. The Markov Chain is used to better represent wet and dry spell statistics while the KNN bootstrap resampler preserves the covariance structure between the weather variables and across space. The wavelet-based autoregressive model is applied to annual climate over the region and used to modulate the Markov Chain and KNN resampling, embedding appropriate low-frequency structure within the daily weather generation process. Parameters can be altered in any of the components of the proposed model to enable the generation of realistic time series of climate variables that exhibit changes to both lower-order and higher-order statistics at long-term (inter-annual), mid-term (seasonal), and short-term (daily) timescales. The tool can be coupled with impact models in a bottom-up risk assessment to efficiently and exhaustively explore the potential climate changes under which a system is most vulnerable. An application of the weather generator is presented for the Connecticut River basin to demonstrate the tool's ability to generate a wide range of possible climate sequences over an extensive spatial domain.

Description: The objective of the least cost design problem of a water distribution system is to find its minimum cost with discrete diameters as decision variables and hydraulic controls as constraints. The goal of a robust least cost design is to find solutions which guarantee its feasibility independent of the data (i.e., under model uncertainty). A robust counterpart approach for linear uncertain problems is adopted in this study, which represents the uncertain stochastic problem as its deterministic equivalent. Robustness is controlled by a single parameter providing a trade-off between the probability of constraint violation and the objective cost. Two principal models are developed-uncorrelated uncertainty model with implicit design reliability, and correlated uncertainty model with explicit design reliability. The models are tested on three example applications and compared for uncertainty in consumers’ demands. The main contribution of this study is the inclusion of the ability to explicitly account for different correlations between water distribution systems demand nodes. In particular it is shown that including correlation information in the design phase has a substantial advantage in seeking more efficient robust solutions.

Description: Moving from univariate to multivariate frequency analysis, this study extends the Klemeš' critique of the widespread belief that the increasingly refined mathematical structures of probability functions increase the accuracy and credibility of the extrapolated upper tails of the fitted distribution models. In particular, we discuss key aspects of multivariate frequency analysis applied to hydrological data such as the selection of multivariate design events (i.e., appropriate subsets or scenarios of multiplets that exhibit the same joint probability to be used in design applications) and the assessment of the corresponding uncertainty. Since these problems are often overlooked or treated separately, and sometimes confused, we attempt to clarify properties, advantages, shortcomings and reliability of results of frequency analysis. We suggest a selection method of multivariate design events with prescribed joint probability based on simple Monte Carlo simulations that accounts for the uncertainty affecting the inference results and the multivariate extreme quantiles. It is also shown that the exploration of the p -level probability regions of a joint distribution returns a set of events that is a subset of the p -level scenarios resulting from an appropriate assessment of the sampling uncertainty, thus tending to overlook more extreme and potentially dangerous events with the same (uncertain) joint probability. Moreover, a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty of multivariate quantiles is provided by introducing the concept of joint confidence intervals. From an operational point of view, the simulated event sets describing the distribution of the multivariate p -level quantiles can be used to perform multivariate risk analysis under sampling uncertainty. As an example of the practical implications of this study, we analyse two case studies already presented in the literature.

Description: Sparse geologic dictionaries provide a novel approach for subsurface flow model representation and calibration. Learning sparse dictionaries from prior training datasets is an effective approach to describe complex geologic connectivity patterns in subsurface imaging applications. However, the computational cost of sparse learning algorithms becomes prohibitive for large models. Performing the sparse dictionary learning process on smaller image patches (segments) provides a simple approach to address this problem in image processing applications. However, in underdetermined subsurface flow model calibration inverse problems, reconstruction of a segmented image can introduce significant structural distortion and discontinuity at the boundaries of the segments. This paper proposes an alternative sparse learning approach where the sparse dictionaries are learned from low-rank representations of the large-scale training dataset in spectral domains (e.g., frequency domain). The objective is to develop a computationally efficient dictionary learning approach that emphasizes large-scale spatial connectivity patterns. This is achieved by removing the strong spatial correlations in the training data, thereby eliminating a large number of insignificant components from the sparse learning computation. In addition to improving the computational complexity, sparse learning from low-rank training datasets suppresses the small-scale details from entering the reconstruction of large-scale connectivity patterns, and providing a regularization effect in solving the resulting ill-posed inverse problems. We apply the proposed approach to travel-time tomography inversion and nonlinear subsurface flow model calibration inverse problems to demonstrate its effectiveness and practicality.

Description: The conditions permitting mantle serpentinization during continental rifting are explored within 2D thermotectonostratigraphic basin models, which track the rheological evolution of the continental crust, account for sediment blanketing effects, and allow for kinetically controlled mantle serpentinization processes. The basic idea is that the entire extending continental crust has to be brittle for crustal scale faulting and mantle serpentinization to occur [ Perez-Gussinye and Reston , 2001]. The isostatic and latent heat effects of the reaction are fully coupled to the structural and thermal solutions. A systematic parameter study shows that a critical stretching factor exists for which complete crustal embrittlement and serpentinization occurs. Increased sedimentation rates shift this critical stretching factor to higher values as sediment blanketing effects result in higher crustal temperatures. Sediment supply has therefore, through the temperature-dependence of the viscous flow laws, strong control on crustal strength and mantle serpentinization reactions are only likely when sedimentation rates are low and stretching factors high. In a case study for the Norwegian margin we test whether the inner lower crustal bodies (LCB) imaged beneath the Møre and Vøring margin could be serpentinized mantle. Multiple 2D transects have been reconstructed through the 3D data set by Scheck-Wenderoth and Maystrenko [2011]. We find that serpentinization reactions are possible and likely during the Jurassic rift phase. Predicted thicknesses and locations of partially serpentinized mantle rocks fit to information on LCBs from seismic and gravity data. We conclude that some of the inner LCBs beneath the Norwegian margin may be partially serpentinized mantle.

Description: A new hybrid wavelet–bootstrap–neural network (WBNN) model is proposed in this study for short term (1, 3 and 5 day; 1 and 2 week; and 1 and 2 month) urban water demand forecasting. The new method was tested using data from the city of Montreal in Canada. The performance of the WBNN method was compared with the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous input variables (ARIMAX), traditional NNs, wavelet analysis based NNs (WNN), bootstrap based NNs (BNN), and a simple naïve persistence index model. The WBNN model was developed as an ensemble of several NNs built using bootstrap resamples of wavelet sub-time series instead of raw datasets. The results demonstrated that the hybrid WBNN and WNN models produced significantly more accurate forecasting results than the traditional NN, BNN, ARIMA and ARIMAX models. It was also found that the WBNN model reduces the uncertainty associated with the forecasts, and the performance of WBNN forecasted confidence bands were found to be more accurate and reliable than BNN forecasted confidence bands. It was found in this study that maximum temperature and total precipitation improved the accuracy of water demand forecasts using wavelet analysis. The performance of WBNN models was also compared for different numbers of bootstrap resamples (i.e., 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500) and it was found that WBNN models produced optimum results with different numbers of bootstrap resamples for different lead time forecasts with considerable variability.

Description: ABSTRACT Although mechanistic reaction networks have been developed to quantify the biogeochemical evolution of subsurface systems associated with bioremediation, it is difficult in practice to quantify the onset and distribution of these transitions at the field scale using commonly collected wellbore datasets. As an alternative approach to the mechanistic methods, we develop a data-driven, statistical model to identify biogeochemical transitions using various time-lapse aqueous geochemical data (e.g., Fe(II), sulfate, sulfide, acetate, and uranium concentrations) and induced polarization (IP) data. We assume that the biogeochemical transitions can be classified as several dominant states that correspond to redox transitions and test the method at a uranium-contaminated site. The relationships between the geophysical observations and geochemical time-series vary depending upon the unknown underlying redox status, which is modeled as a hidden Markov random field. We estimate unknown parameters by maximizing the joint likelihood function using the maximization-expectation algorithm. The case study results show that when considered together aqueous geochemical data and IP imaginary conductivity provide a key diagnostic signature of biogeochemical stages. The developed method provides useful information for evaluating the effectiveness of bioremediation, such as the probability of being in specific redox stages following biostimulation where desirable pathways (e.g., uranium removal) are more highly favored. The use of geophysical data in the approach advances the possibility of using non-invasive methods to monitor critical biogeochemical system stages and transitions remotely and over field relevant scales (e.g., from square meters to several hectares).

Description: In recent years, a number of numerical modelling studies of transient sea-level rise (SLR) and seawater intrusion (SWI) in flux-controlled systems have reported an overshoot phenomenon, whereby the freshwater-saltwater interface temporarily extends further inland than the eventual steady-state position. In this study, we have carried out physical sand tank modelling of SLR-SWI in a flux-controlled unconfined aquifer setting to test if SWI overshoot is a measurable physical process. Photographs of the physical SLR experiments show, for the first time, that an overshoot occurs under controlled laboratory conditions. A sea-level drop (SLD) experiment was also carried out, and overshoot was again observed, whereby the interface was temporarily closer to the coast than the eventual steady-state position. This shows that an overshoot can occur for the case of a retreating interface. Numerical modelling corroborated the physical SLR and SLD experiments. The magnitude of the overshoot for SLR and SLD in the physical experiments was 24% of the change in steady-state interface position, albeit the laboratory setting is designed to maximise overshoot extent by adopting high groundwater flow gradients and large and rapid sea-level changes. While the likelihood of overshoot at the field scale appears to be low, this work has shown that it can be observed under controlled laboratory conditions.

Description: A new analytical solution of the flow equation has been developed to estimate the time to reach a near-equilibrium state in mixed aquifers, i.e. having unconfined and confined portions, following a large hydraulic perturbation. Near-equilibrium is defined as the time for an initial aquifer perturbation to dissipate by an average 95% across the aquifer.The new solution has been obtained by solving the flow system of a simplified conceptual model of a mixed aquifer using Laplace transforms. The conceptual model is based on two assumptions: 1) the groundwater flow can be reduced to a horizontal 1D problem; and 2) the transmissivity, a function of the saturated thickness, is assumed constant on the unconfined portion. This new solution depends on the storativity of the unconfined portion, the lengths of the unconfined and confined portions and the transmissivity, assumed to be constant and equal in both portions of the mixed aquifer. This solution was then tested and validated against a numerical flow model, where the variations of the saturated thickness and therefore variations of the transmissivity were either ignored, or properly modeled. The agreement between the results from the new solution and those from the numerical model is good, validating the use of this new solution to estimate the time to reach near-equilibrium in mixed aquifers. This solution for mixed aquifers, as well as the solutions for a fully confined or fully unconfined aquifer, have been used to estimate the time to reach near-equilibrium in thirteen large aquifers in the world. For those different aquifers, the time to reach near-equilibrium ranges between 0.7 ky to 2.4x10 7 ky. These results suggest that the present hydraulic heads in these aquifers are typically a mixture of responses induced from current and past hydrologic conditions and thus climate conditions. For some aquifers, the modern hydraulic heads may in fact depend upon hydrologic conditions resulting from several past climate cycles.

Description: The impact of contact angle on 2D spatial and temporal water content distribution during infiltration and drainage was experimentally studied. The 0.3-0.5 mm fraction of a quartz dune sand was treated and turned sub-critically repellent (contact angle of 33 0 , 48 0 , 56 0 , and 75 0 for S33, S48, S56, and S75, respectively). The media were packed uniformly in transparent flow chambers and water was supplied to the surface as a point source at different rates (1 to 20 ml/min). A sequence of grey-value images was taken by CCD camera during infiltration and subsequent drainage; grey values were converted to volumetric water content by water volume balance. Narrow and long plumes with water accumulation behind the downward moving wetting front (tip) and negative water gradient above it (tail) developed in the S56 and S75 media during infiltration at lower water application rates. The plumes became bulbous with spatially uniform water content distribution as water application rates increased. All plumes in these media propagated downward at a constant rate during infiltration and were frozen during drainage. In contrast, regular plume shapes were observed in the S33 and S48 media at all flow rates, and drainage profiles were non-monotonic with a transition plane at the depth that water reached during infiltration. Given that the studied media have similar pore-size distributions, the conclusion is that imbibition hindered by the non-zero contact angle induced pressure buildup at the wetting front (dynamic water entry value) that controlled the plume shape and internal water-content distribution during infiltration and drainage.

Description: Estimation of design quantiles of hydro-meteorological variables at critical locations in river basins is necessary for hydrological applications. To arrive at reliable estimates for locations (sites) where no or limited records are available, various regional frequency analysis (RFA) procedures have been developed over the past five decades. The most widely used procedure is based on Index-flood approach and L -moments. It assumes that values of scale and shape parameters of frequency distribution are identical across all the sites in a homogeneous region. In real world scenario, this assumption may not be valid even if a region is statistically homogeneous. To address this issue, a novel mathematical approach is proposed. It involves (i) identification of an appropriate frequency distribution to fit the random variable being analyzed for homogeneous region, (ii) use of a proposed transformation mechanism to map observations of the variable from original space to a dimensionless space where the form of distribution does not change, and variation in values of its parameters is minimal across sites, (iii) construction of a growth curve in the dimensionless space, and (iv) mapping the curve to the original space for the target site by applying inverse transformation to arrive at required quantile(s) for the site. Effectiveness of the proposed approach in predicting quantiles for ungauged sites is demonstrated through Monte-Carlo simulation experiments considering five frequency distributions that are widely used in RFA, and by case study on watersheds in conterminous United States. Results indicate that the proposed approach outperforms methods based on index-flood approach.

Description: Prediction of microbial surface water contamination is a formidable task because of the inherent randomness of environmental processes driving microbial fate and transport. In this article we develop a theoretical framework of a fully stochastic model of microbial transport in watersheds, and apply the theory to a simple flow network to demonstrate its use. The framework bridges the gap between microscopic behavior of individual microorganisms and macroscopic ensemble dynamics. This scaling is accomplished within a single mathematical framework, where each microorganism behaves according to a continuous-time discrete-space Markov process, and the Markov behavior of individual microbes gives rise to a non-homogeneous Poisson random field that describes microbial population dynamics. Mean value functions are derived, and the spatial and temporal distribution of water contamination risk is computed in a straightforward manner.

Description: The origin of the Bermuda swell and volcanism remains enigmatic. The lack of an associated time-progressive hotspot track and absence of present-day volcanic activity make it difficult to reconcile with a deep mantle plume model. We analyze shear wave splitting measurements to estimate mantle flow direction and receiver function stacks to place constraints on the mantle transition zone thermal structure. *KS phases exhibit well-resolved null arrivals (no splitting) beneath the swell over a range of back azimuths. We find that the 410 and 660 km discontinuities are 49 ± 5 km and 19 ± 5 km deeper than the global average, respectively, leading to a transition zone thickness that is 27 ± 4 km thinner than average. Together, an apparently isotropic upper mantle and a thinned mantle transition zone suggest that mantle flow is primarily vertical beneath the swell, consistent with the presence of hot, buoyant mantle at depth.

Description: The anomalously snowy winter season of 2010/11 in the Sierra Nevada is analyzed in terms of snow water equivalent (SWE) anomalies and the role of atmospheric rivers (ARs)―narrow channels of enhanced meridional water vapor transport between the tropics and extratropics. Mean April 1 SWE was 0.44 m (56%) above normal averaged over 100 snow sensors. AR occurrence was anomalously high during the period, with 20 AR dates during the season and 14 in the month of December 2010, compared to the mean occurrence of 9 dates per season. Fifteen out of the 20 AR dates were associated with the negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern. Analysis of all winter ARs in California during water years 1998–2011 indicates more ARs occur during the negative phase of AO and PNA, with the increase between positive and negative phases being ˜90% for AO, and ˜50% for PNA. The circulation pattern associated with concurrent negative phases of AO and PNA, characterized by cyclonic anomalies centered northwest of California, provides a favorable dynamical condition for ARs. The analysis suggests that the massive Sierra Nevada snowpack during the 2010/11 winter season is primarily related to anomalously high frequency of ARs favored by the joint phasing of −AO and −PNA, and that a secondary contribution is from increased snow accumulation during these ARs favored by colder air temperatures associated with −AO, −PNA and La Niña.

Description: The baseflow recession constant, K b , is used to characterize the interaction of groundwater and surface water systems. Estimation of K b is critical in many studies including rainfall-runoff modeling, estimation of low flow statistics at ungaged locations and baseflow separation methods. The performance of several estimators of K b are compared, including several new approaches which account for the impact of human withdrawals. A traditional semi-log estimation approach adapted to incorporate the influence of human withdrawals was preferred over other derivative-based estimators. Human withdrawals are shown to have a significant impact on the estimation of baseflow recessions, even when withdrawals are relatively small. Regional regression models are developed to relate seasonal estimates of K b to physical, climatic, and anthropogenic characteristics of stream-aquifer systems. Among the factors considered for explaining the behavior of K b , both drainage density and human withdrawals have significant and similar explanatory power. We document the importance of incorporating human withdrawals into models of the baseflow recession response of a watershed and the systemic downward bias associated with estimates of K b obtained without consideration of human withdrawals.

Description: There are significant uncertainties inherent in precipitation forecasts and these uncertainties can be communicated to users via large ensembles that are generated using stochastic models of forecast error. The Met Office and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology developed the Short Term Ensemble Prediction System (STEPS) which has been operational for a number of years. The initial formulation of Bowler et al. [2006] has been revised and extended to improve the performance over large domains, to include radar observation errors, and to facilitate the combination of forecasts from a number of sources. This paper reviews the formulation of STEPS, discusses those aspects of the formulation that have proved most problematic and presents some solutions. The performance of STEPS nowcasts is evaluated using a combination of case study examples and statistical verification from the UK. Routine forecast verification demonstrates that STEPS is capable of producing near optimal blends of a rainfall nowcast and high resolution NWP forecast. It also shows that the spread of STEPS nowcast ensembles are a good predictor of the error in the control member (unperturbed) nowcast.

Description: In this study seasonal and interannual variability of the main atmospheric moisture sources over eight regions in the Mediterranean basin were investigated along a twenty one year period. The Lagrangian dispersion model FLEXPART, developed by Stohl and James [2004, 2005], was applied to identify the contribution of humidity to the moisture budget of each region. This methodology is used to compute budgets of evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) by calculating changes in the specific humidity along backward trajectories, for the preceding ten-day periods. The results show clear seasonal differences in the moisture sources between wet and dry seasons. The Western Mediterranean Sea is the dominant moisture source for almost all the regions in the Mediterranean basin during the wet season, while the local net evaporation dominates during the dry season. The highest interannual variability is found in contributions to the Iberian Peninsula, Italy and the Eastern Mediterranean. It is seen that the role of teleconnections is more limited than for the precipitation recorded in the region.

Description: We present a new hydrologic model based on the frequency distribution of hillslope landscape elements along the stream network as a basis for simulating landscape-scale hydrologic connectivity and catchment runoff. Hydrologic connectivity describes shallow water table continuity between upland and stream elements of the catchment and is important for the movement of water and solutes to streams. This concept has gained traction in physical hydrology but has received less attention in rainfall-runoff modeling. Our model is based on the empirical studies of Jencso et al. [2009; 2010], who found a strong correlation between the duration of shallow groundwater connectivity across hillslope, riparian, and stream zones and upslope accumulated area. We explored the relationship between catchment form and function by testing the extent to which streamflow generation could be predicted by a model based on the topographic form (distribution of landscape elements) of the catchment. We applied the model to the Stringer Creek catchment of the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest, located in Montana, USA. Detailed field observations collected by Jencso et al. [2009] were used to inform the underpinnings of the model and to corroborate internal consistency of the model simulations. The model demonstrated good agreement between the observed and predicted streamflow and connectivity duration curves. The ability of this model to simulate internal dynamics without conditioning the parameters on these data suggests that it has the potential to be more confidently extrapolated to other shallow, topographically driven catchments than hydrologic models that fail to consistently reproduce internal variables.

Description: Knowledge of hydrological model complexity can aid selection of an optimal prediction model out of a set of available models. Optimal model selection is formalized as selection of the least complex model out of a subset of models that have lower empirical risk. This may be considered equivalent to minimizing an upper bound on prediction error, defined here as the mathematical expectation of empirical risk. In this paper we derive an upper bound that is free from assumptions on data and underlying process distribution as well as on independence of model predictions over time. We demonstrate that hydrological model complexity, as defined in the presented theoretical framework, plays an important role in determining the upper bound. The model complexity also acts as a stabilizer to a hydrological model selection problem if it is deemed ill-posed. We provide an algorithm for computing complexity of any arbitrary hydrological model. We also demonstrate that hydrological model complexity has a geometric interpretation as the size of model output space. The presented theory is applied to quantify complexities of two hydrological model structures: SAC-SMA and SIXPAR. It detects that SAC-SMA is indeed more complex than SIXPAR. We also develop an algorithm to estimate the upper bound on prediction error, which is applied on 5 different rainfall-runoff model structures that vary in complexity. We show that a model selection problem is stabilized by regularizing it with model complexity. Complexity regularized model selection yields models that are robust in predicting future but yet unseen data.

Description: The temporal dynamics and spatial distribution of the concentrations of dissolved gases (He, Ar, Kr, N 2 , O 2 and CO 2 ) in an infiltrating groundwater system fed by the peri-alpine River Thur (Switzerland) were analysed before, during and after a single, well-defined flood event. The analysis was based on measurements taken in five different groundwater observation wells that were located approximately 10 m apart and tapped the same groundwater body, but were situated in three different riparian zones. The input of O 2 into the groundwater as a result of the formation of excess air was found to be of the same order of magnitude as that resulting from the advection of river water, although the amount of excess air formed and the amount of O 2 delivered varied significantly among the riparian zones. The results suggest that the input of O 2 into groundwater as a result of excess air formation is controlled not only by the hydraulic conditions prevailing in the river and the groundwater, but also by the thickness of the confining bed at the top of the aquifer. The sandy gravel aquifer itself is too coarse to trap a significant amount of air during the water level rise. The clay layer confining the aquifer, however, acts as a barrier hindering the escape of air from the subsoil to the surface, and hence is likely to be a key factor controlling the trapping and dissolution of air in groundwater.

Description: Estimation of parameter values in hydrological models has gradually moved from subjective, trial-and-error methods into objective estimation methods. Translation of nature's complexity to bit operations is an uncertain process as a result of data errors, epistemic gaps, computational deficiencies, and other limitations, and relies on calibration to fit model output to observed data. The robustness of the calibrated parameter values to these types of uncertainties is therefore an important concern. In this study, we investigated how the hydrological robustness of the model-parameter values varied within the geometric structure of the behavioral (well-performing) parameter space with a depth function based on α shapes and an in-depth posterior performance analysis of the simulations in relation to the observed discharge uncertainty. The α shape depth is a non-convex measure that may provide an accurate and tight delimitation of the geometric structure of the behavioral space for both uni- and multimodal parameter-value distributions. WASMOD, a parsimonious rainfall-runoff model, was applied to six Honduran and one UK catchment, with differing data quality and hydrological characteristics. Model evaluation was done with two performance measures, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and one based on flow-duration curves. Deep parameter vectors were in general found to be more hydrologically robust than shallow ones in the analyses we performed; model-performance values increased with depth, deviations to the observed data for the high-flow aspects of the hydrograph generally decreased with increasing depth, deep parameter vectors generally transferred in time with maintained high performance values, and the model had a low sensitivity to small changes in the parameter values. The tight delimitation of the behavioral space provided by the α shapes depth function showed a potential to improve the efficiency of calibration techniques that require further exploration. For computational reasons only a three-parameter model could be used, which limited the applicability of this depth measure and the conclusions drawn in this paper, especially concerning hydrological robustness at low flows.

Description: We present an improved density model and a new structural map of the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff caldera, the active portion of the nested Campi Flegrei caldera. The model was built using a new 3D inversion of the available high-precision gravity data, and a new digital terrain and marine model. The inversion procedure, based on a variable-depth lumped assembling of the subsurface gravity distribution via cell aggregation, gives better defined insights into the internal caldera architecture, that well agree with the available geological, geophysical and geochemical data. The adopted 3D gravity method is highly efficient for characterizing the shallow caldera structure (down to 3 km depth) and defining features related to regional or volcano tectonic lineaments and dynamics. In particular, the resulting density distribution highlights a pronounced density low in correspondence of the central portion of the caldera with a detail not available till now. The joint interpretation of the available data, suggests a subsurface structural setting that supports a piecemeal collapse of the caldera, and allows the identification of its headwall. Positive gravity anomalies localize dense intrusions (presently covered by late volcanic deposits) along the caldera marginal faults, and the main structural lineaments both bordering the resurgent block and cutting the caldera floor. These results allow us to both refine the current geological-structural framework and propose a new structural map that highlights the caldera boundary and its internal setting. This map is useful to interpret the phenomena occurring during unrest, and to improve both short- and long-term volcanic hazards assessment.

Description: Catastrophic collapses of submarine volcanoes have the potential to generate major tsunami, threatening many coastal populations. Recognizing the difficulties surrounding anticipations of these events, quantitative assessment of collapse-prone regions based on detailed morphological, geological and geophysical mapping can still provide important information about the hazards associated with these collapses. Rumble III is one of the shallowest, and largest, submarine volcanoes found along the Kermadec arc, and is both volcanically and hydrothermally active. Previous surveys have delineated major collapse features at Rumble III; based on time-lapse bathymetry, dramatic changes in the volcano morphology have been shown to have occurred over the interval 2007 to 2009. Furthermore, this volcano is located just ˜300 km from the east coast of the North Island of New Zealand. Here, we present a geophysical model for Rumble III, that provides the locations and sizes of potential weak regions of this volcano. Shipborne and near-seafloor geological and geophysical data collected by the AUV Sentry are used to determine the subsurface distribution of weak and unstable volcanic rocks. The resulting model provides evidence for potentially unstable areas located in the Southeastern flank of this volcano which should be included in future hazard predictions.

Description: Broadband seismic experiments over the last two decades have produced dense data coverage across Tibet. Yet, the mechanism of the India-Asia lithospheric convergence beneath it remains a puzzle, with even its basic features debated and with very different end-member models advocated today. We measured highly accurate Rayleigh- and Love-wave phase-velocity curves in broad period ranges (up to 5-200 s) for a few tens of pairs and groups of stations across Tibet, combining, in each case, hundreds to thousands of inter-station measurements made with cross-correlation and waveform-inversion methods. Robust shear-velocity profiles were then determined by extensive series of non-linear inversions of the data, designed to constrain the depth-dependent ranges of isotropic-average shear speeds and radial anisotropy. Temperature anomalies in the upper mantle were estimated from shear velocities using accurate petro-physical relationships. Our results reveal strong heterogeneity in the upper mantle beneath Tibet. Very large high-velocity anomalies in the upper mantle are consistent with the presence of underthrust (beneath southwestern Tibet) and subducted (beneath central and eastern Tibet) Indian lithosphere. The lithosphere. In contrast to the Indian lithosphere, Tibetan lithosphere and asthenosphere display low to normal shear speeds; Tibetan lithosphere is thus warm and thin. Radial anisotropy in the upper mantle is weak in central and strong in northeastern Tibet, possibly reflecting asthenospheric flow above the subducting Indian lithospheric slab.

Description: The Pacific Northwest (PNW) has experienced voluminous intraplate volcanism over the past ~17 Ma, beginning with the Steens/Columbia River flood basalts and continuing with the still-ongoing volcanism in the High Lava Plains (HLP) and eastern Snake River Plain (SRP). Here we present two complementary datasets (SKS splitting and Rayleigh wave phase velocity anisotropy) that place constraints on the anisotropic structure of the upper mantle beneath the HLP and SRP regions. Beneath the HLP, SKS phases reveal dominantly E-W fast splitting directions and large (up to ~2.7 sec) delay times, with pronounced lateral variations in δ t . Lateral and depth variability in the strength of anisotropy beneath the HLP is also evident from Rayleigh wave dispersion. Beneath the SRP, SKS splitting delay times are much smaller (~0.5 sec) and surface wave observations suggest a region of upper mantle anisotropy (~50-150 km depth) with a geometry that deviates significantly from the generally plate motion parallel fast directions observed just outside of the SRP. Beneath the HLP, the geometry of the anomalously strong anisotropy is similar to the anisotropy in the deeper parts of the upper mantle, resulting in constructive interference and large SKS splitting delay times. Beneath the SRP, the geometry of the anomalous anisotropic region in the shallow mantle is different, resulting in destructive interference and reduced SKS splitting delay times. We discuss several possible explanations for these observations, including variations in olivine lattice preferred orientation (LPO) strength, transitions in olivine fabric type, and a contribution from aligned partial melt.

Description: The cosmic-ray neutron probe measures soil moisture over tens of hectares, thus averaging spatially variable soil moisture fields. A previous paper described how variable soil moisture profiles affect the integrated cosmic-ray neutron signal from which depth-average soil moisture is computed. Here, we investigate the effect of horizontal heterogeneity on the relationship between neutron counts and average soil moisture. Observations from a distributed sensor network at a site in southern Arizona indicate that the horizontal component of the total variance of the soil moisture field is less variably in time than the vertical component. Using results from neutron particle transport simulations we show that 1-D binary distributions of soil moisture may affect both the mean and variance of neutron counts of a cosmic-ray neutron detector placed arbitrarily in a soil moisture field, potentially giving rise to an underestimate of the footprint average soil moisture. Similar simulations that used 1 and 2-D Gaussian soil moisture fields indicate consistent mean and variances of a randomly placed detector if the correlation length scales are short (〈˜30 m) and/or the soil moisture field variance is small (〈0.032 m 6 m -6 ). Taken together, these soil moisture observations and neutron transport simulations show that horizontal heterogeneity likely has a small effect on the relationship between mean neutron counts and average soil moisture for soils under natural conditions.

Description: The bulk composition of the silicate portion of the Earth (BSE) has long been assumed to be tied to chondrites, in which refractory, lithophile elements like Sm and Nd exist in chondritic relative abundances. However, the 142 Nd/ 144 Nd ratios of modern terrestrial samples are 18±5 ppm higher than the ordinary-chondrite reservoir, and this challenges the traditional BSE model. Here we investigate a hypothesis that this terrestrial 142 Nd excess is related to a Sm/Nd ratio 6% higher than chondritic. This Sm/Nd ratio yields a superchondritic 143 Nd/ 144 Nd (~0.5130) similar to that identified in the highest 3 He/ 4 He mantle reservoir, and we argue that this reservoir represents the BSE composition for lithophile elements. We develop a compositional model for BSE in which the elevated Sm/Nd requires a shift of 143 Nd/ 144 Nd from 0.51263 (chondritic) to 0.51300. The new BSE composition is depleted in highly incompatible elements, including K, relative to the chondrite-based BSE, and offers a solution the “missing” 40 Ar paradox. This BSE compositional model requires that 〉83% of the mantle is depleted to form continental crust. It also implies a ~30% reduction in BSE U, Th and K, and therefore in the current rate of radiogenic heating and, thus, a proportional increase in the heat flow delivered to surface by plate tectonics. We explore thermal history models including effects related to a newly recognized evolution in the style of plate tectonics over Earth history: The lower radiogenic heat production may delay the onset of core convection and dynamo action to as late as 3.5 Gyr.

Description: The internal geological structure of the Northeast German Basin (NEGB) is affected by intense salt diapirism and by the presence of several stratified aquifer complexes of regional relevance. The shallow Quaternary to late Tertiary freshwater aquifer is separated from the underlying Mesozoic saline aquifers by an embedded Tertiary clay enriched aquitard (Rupelian Aquitard). An important feature of this aquitard is that hydraulic connections between the upper and lower aquifers do exist in areas where the Rupelian Aquitard is missing (hydrogeological windows). Three-dimensional thermohaline numerical simulations are carried out to investigate the effects of such hydrogeological windows in the Rupelian Aquitard on the resulting groundwater, temperature and salinity distributions. Numerical results suggest that hydrogeological windows act as preferential domains of hydraulic interconnectivity between the different aquifers at depth, and enable vigorous heat and mass transport which causes a mixing of warm and saline groundwater with cold and less saline groundwater within both aquifers. In areas where the Rupelian Aquitard confines the Mesozoic aquifer, dissolved solutes from major salt structures are transported laterally giving rise to plumes of variable salinity content ranging from few hundreds of meters to several tens of kilometers. Furthermore, destabilizing thermal buoyancy forces may overwhelm counteracting stabilizing salinity induced forces offside of salt domes. This may result in buoyant upward groundwater flow transporting heat and mass to shallower levels within the same Mesozoic Aquifer.

Description: Widespread disturbance within forested catchments typically increases runoff. However, following widespread fire in 1939 throughout south-east Australia Kuczera [1987] reported persistent reductions in runoff that were attributed to increased evapotranspiration from regenerating ‘ash’ forests. Kuczera projected ongoing reductions of water yield for ~150 years. In 2003 widespread fire in the headwaters of the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) again stimulated extensive regeneration of ash forests, raising the prospect of subsequent water yield reductions. To understand the potential impact of the 2003 bushfires we re-evaluated yield reductions from three of the catchments originally studied by Kuczera using the same calibration period. We also used an expanded pre-fire calibration period (1908-1938) based on data not originally available to Kuczera. The trend of post-fire water yield that we observed in 1939-affected catchments is qualitatively consistent with Kuczera's projections, but the quantitative details were, as expected, sensitive to the pre-fire calibration period used. We then used a simplified method to examine a further five ash-dominated catchments affected by the 2003 fires. We report relative reductions in mean annual stream flow in all five catchments and a statistically significant (α=0.05) post-fire reduction in one of five catchments. Post-fire yield reductions during the austral summer (October-April) were greater in relative magnitude in all five catchments and were statistically significant (α=0.05) in three of five catchments. We conclude that a post-bushfire Kuczera-type response may be widespread in regenerating ash forests. On that basis we anticipate post-fire yield reductions in ash forests elsewhere and conclude that further reductions in stream flow are likely in the MDB for at least another decade.

Description: Long continuous seismic data recorded at five broadband seismic stations during 2006 at Campi Flegrei caldera have been analyzed. Introducing a coarse-grained method, we evaluate the time evolution of amplitude and polarization of the seismic noise in the frequency band common to Long-Period events. The series are modulated on tidal time scales: the root-mean square is basically dominated by solar contribution, while the azimuth of the polarization vector shows lunar diurnal and semidiurnal constituents. In addition, we find that in the frequency band common to Long-Period events the azimuths are polarized towards a specific area, suggesting that these persistent oscillations can be induced by the activity of the shallow geothermal reservoir.

Description: We report on the mineralogical assemblages found in the hyper-alkaline springs hosted on Liguria and Oman ophiolites based on exhaustive XRD and SEM analyses. In Liguria, hyper-alkaline springs produce a thin brownish calcite precipitate that covers the bedrock due to the concomitant atmospheric CO 2 uptake and neutralization of the hyper-alkaline waters. No brucite and portlandite minerals are observed. The discharge of alkaline waters in Oman ophiolite forms white-orange precipitates. Calcium carbonate minerals (calcite and/or aragonite) are the most abundant and ubiquitous precipitates and are produced by the same mechanism as in Liguria. This process is observed as a thin surface crust made of rhombohedral calcite. Morphological features of aragonite vary from needle-, bouquet-, dumbbell-, spheroidal-like habitus according to the origin of carbon, the temperature and the ionic composition of the hyper-alkaline springs, and the biochemical and organic compounds. Brucite is observed both at hyper-alkaline springs located at the thrust plane and at the paleo-Moho. The varying mixing proportions between the surface run-off waters and the hyper-alkaline ones control brucite precipitation. The Layered Double Hydroxide minerals occur solely in vicinity of hyper-alkaline springs emerging within the bedded gabbros. Finally, the dominant mineralogical associations we found in Oman (Ca-bearing carbonates and brucite) in a serpentinizing environment driven by the meteoric waters are surprisingly the same as those observed at the Lost City hydrothermal site in a totally marine environment.

Description: A computer program (PBUQ) that uses Monte Carlo simulations to propagate uncertainty through regression equations and the equation for the paleosol carbonate CO 2 paleobarometer is presented. PBUQ includes options for all of the common approaches to determining values for input variables and incorporates several recent advancements relevant to determining values for soil-respired CO 2 concentrations, δ 13 C values of respired CO 2 , δ 13 C values of atmospheric CO 2 and temperatures of soil carbonate formation. PBUQ is intended to improve confidence in paleoatmospheric CO 2 research by helping researchers draw statistically significant conclusions. PBUQ can also be used to attribute and partition error among various sources and thereby advance this technique. Sensitivity analysis indicates that S(z) is the largest source of uncertainty for most paleosols and that uncertainty is minimized for soils in which CO 2 is an evenly balanced mixture between soil-derived and atmospheric components. Evenly balanced mixtures are most likely for paleosols formed in deserts and for weakly-developed paleosols. Development of proxies for soil-respired CO 2 concentrations and δ 13 C values of soil-respired CO 2 specifically for such soils is perhaps the most crucial next step for improving this technique. Currently, calcic paleosols are best used to test the significance of trends and/or differences among time slices in paleoatmospheric CO 2 concentration. Application to quantifying Earth System Sensitivity will require large scale averaging of determinations from individual paleosols and/or reduced uncertainty associated with input variables.

Description: Long-lived detachment faults are now known to be important in tectonic evolution of slow-spreading mid-ocean ridges, and there is increasing evidence that fluid flow plays a critical role in development of detachment systems. Here we document a new manifestation of low-temperature hydrothermal venting associated with the detachment fault that formed Kane Megamullion ~3.3-2.1 m.y. ago in the western rift-valley wall of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Hydrothermal effects on the detachment surface include 1) cemented mounds of igneous rock and chalk debris containing hydrothermal Mn oxides and Fe oxyhydroxides, and 2) layered deposits of similar Fe-Mn minerals ± interbedded chalks. Mounds are roughly conical, ~1-10 meters high, and contain primarily basalts with lesser gabbro, serpentinite, and polymict breccia. The layered Fe-Mn-rich sediments are flat-bedded to contorted and locally are buckled into low-relief linear or polygonal ridges. We propose that the mounds formed where hydrothermal fluids discharged through the detachment hanging wall near the active fault trace. Hydrothermal precipitates cemented hanging-wall debris and welded it to the footwall, and this debris persisted as mounds as the footwall was exhumed and surrounding unconsolidated material sloughed off the sloping detachment surface. Some of the layered Fe-Mn-rich deposits may have precipitated from fluids discharging from the hanging-wall vents, but they also precipitated from low-temperature fluids venting from the exposed footwall through overlying chalks. Observed natural disturbance and abnormally thin hydrogenous Fe-Mn crusts on some contorted, hydrothermal Fe-Mn-rich chalks on ~2.7 Ma crust suggest diffuse venting that is geologically recent. Results of this study imply that there are significant fluid pathways through all parts of detachment systems and that low-temperature venting through fractured detachment footwalls may continue for several million years off-axis.

Description: Drought triggers are patterns in hydro-climatic variables that herald upcoming droughts and form the basis for mitigation plans. This study develops a new method for identification of triggers for hydrologic droughts by examining the association between the various hydro-climatic variables and streamflows. Since numerous variables influence streamflows to varying degrees, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is utilized for dimensionality reduction in predictor hydro-climatic variables. The joint dependence between the first two principal components, that explain over 98% of the variability in the predictor set, and streamflows is computed by a scale-free measure of association using asymmetric Archimedean copulas over two study watersheds in Indiana, USA, with unregulated streamflows. The M6 copula model is found to be suitable for the data and is utilized to find expected values and ranges of predictor hydro-climatic variables for different streamflow quantiles. This information is utilized to develop drought triggers for one-month lead time over the study areas. For the two study watersheds, soil moisture, precipitation and runoff are found to provide the fidelity to resolve amongst different drought classes. Combining the strengths of PCA for dimensionality reduction and copulas for building joint dependence allows the development of hydrologic drought triggers in an efficient manner.

Description: We present a unified asymptotic theory of rainfall extremes including annual maxima, excesses above high thresholds, and intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves that builds on previous findings and derive new non-asymptotic results. The analysis is based on stationary multifractal representations of rainfall and produces extensions of the familiar results from extreme value (EV) and extreme excess (EE) theories. The latter results apply to the T -yr maximum as and the excess above z as . By exploiting the scaling relationship among the distributions of rainfall intensity for different averaging durations d , the multifractal asymptotics include, in addition, results in the small-scale limits and with α 〉 0. In all cases the maximum distributions are of the generalized extreme value (GEV) type, but the index k depends on the limit considered. Multifractal models produce also asymptotic scaling results for the IDF curves. For the non-asymptotic case ( d and T finite), we obtain accurate approximations of the IDF curves and derive a semi-theoretical formula for the index k of the GEV model that best approximates the distribution of the annual maximum over a finite range of return-period intensities. The non-asymptotic analysis explains several observed deviations of rainfall extremes from the asymptotic predictions, such as the tendency of k to decrease as the averaging duration d increases and the tendency of the IDF curves to converge as d or the return period T increase.

Description: Remaining oil saturation established by waterflooding was measured in Indiana limestone in its original, water-wet state and under mixed-wet conditions established by adding organic acid to the oil phase. The porous plate technique was used to establish initial oil saturations ranging from S nwi = 0.23 to 0.93 under capillary-dominated conditions. For water-wet conditions, the residual oil saturation increased linearly with its initial saturation. In contrast, the remaining oil saturation under mixed-wet conditions, S nw , displayed three distinct regimes. First, S nw increased with its initial saturation up to S nwi = 0.58. Next, S nw decreased from S nwi = 0.58 to 0.76. Finally, S nw increased again as S nwi approached one. The non-monotonic dependence of S nw on S nwi at S nwi 〉 0.5 is well described by a concave-up quadratic function, and may be a salient feature of mixed-wet rocks.

Description: We present a general phenomenological formalism for the modeling of hydraulic head behaviour in naturally fractured aquifers. A non local in time version of the double porosity model is developed for Euclidean and fractal reservoirs. In the fractal case, time non-locality allows to find the geometric and topological factors responsible for subdiffusive behaviour in such heterogeneous environments. Opposite to other fractal models presented in the literature Chang and Yortsos [1990], our model include dead-ends-backbone interactions instead of matrix-fracture interactions with clear and well defined scaling exponents, thus giving a better characterization of the reservoir after such parameters are estimated. Applications to field tests are discussed. In particular, a distinctive short time head behaviour during well tests is found.

Description: The publicly available global discharge database is limited in spatial and temporal coverage. Although regional exceptions exist, the population of the database has declined over the past several years. As discharge is one of the most important parameters for modeling hydrological interactions, alternative measuring techniques must be sought. In the recent past, satellite altimetry has been investigated as an alternative for monitoring inland water level. In the present study, altimetry footprints in the vicinity of river gauging stations for the Amazon, Amur, Brahmaputra, Danube, Don, Mekong, Niger, Ob and Vistula rivers are analyzed for a functional relationship between the water level measurements from altimetry and discharge from the gauging stations. Such a functional relationship is conventionally established via a rating curve computed using simultaneous data. This study proposes a statistical approach based on quantile functions to infer this functional relation without the need for having synchronous datasets. The statistical approach provides the opportunity of extracting discharge values from altimetry data for rivers like the Mekong, Brahmaputra, Don and Vistula for which the discharge measurements at the selected gauges were made before the age of satellites. The algorithm is then validated over those rivers which do have discharge measurements available within periods of altimetry. Our validation shows that our algorithm is in the same quality range as the conventional approach. We are thus able to salvage pre-satellite altimetry discharge data and turn them into active use for the satellite altimetry time frame.

Description: P and S relative arrival time residuals from teleseismic earthquakes recorded on over 60 temporary AfricaArray broadband seismic stations deployed in Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia between 2007 and 2011 have been inverted, together with relative arrival time residuals from earthquakes recorded by previous deployments, for a tomographic image of mantle wave speed variations extending to a depth of 1200 km beneath eastern Africa. The image shows a low wave speed anomaly (LWA) well developed at shallow depths (100-200 km) beneath the Eastern and Western branches of the Cenozoic East African rift system and northwestern Zambia, and a fast wave speed anomaly at depths ≤ 350 km beneath the central and northern parts of the East African Plateau and the eastern and central parts of Zambia. At depths ≥350 km the LWA is most prominent under the central and southern parts of the East African Plateau and dips to the southwest beneath northern Zambia, extending to a depth of at least 900 km. The amplitude of the LWA is consistent with a ~150-300 K thermal perturbation, and its depth extent indicates that the African superplume, originally identified as a lower mantle anomaly, is likely a whole mantle structure. A superplume extending from the core-mantle boundary to the surface implies an origin for the Cenozoic extension, volcanism and plateau uplift in eastern Africa rooted in the dynamics of the lower mantle.

Description: In the Garibaldi Belt, the northern segment of the Cascade arc, basalts at Bridge River Cones, Salal Glacier, and Mt. Meager (BSM volcanic centers) are alkalic, atypical for an arc setting. Subduction signatures are negligible or absent from primitive alkalic basalts from Salal Glacier and Bridge River, while altered oceanic crust may have contributed a minimal amount of fluid at Mt. Meager. More evolved BSM basalts display trace element signatures considered typical of arc lavas, but this is a consequence of deep crustal assimilation rather than primary input from the subducted slab. Primary BSM basalts represent 3-8% melts that segregated from enriched garnet lherzolite at significantly higher temperatures and pressures (70-105 km) than calc-alkaline Cascade arc basalts. The BSM mantle source is significantly more incompatible element-enriched than the depleted mantle tapped by calc-alkaline Cascade arc basalts. The BSM basalts are also isotopically distinct from calc-alkaline Cascade arc basalts, more similar to MORB and intraplate basalts of the NE Pacific and NW North America. The relatively deep, hot, and geochemically distinct mantle source for BSM basalts is consistent with upwelling asthenosphere. The BSM volcanic centers are close to the projected trace of the Nootka fault, which forms the boundary between the subducting Juan de Fuca plate and the near-stagnant Explorer plate. A gap or attenuated zone between the plates may promote upwelling of enriched asthenosphere that undergoes low-degree decompression melting to generate alkalic basalts that are essentially free of slab input yet occur in an arc setting.

Description: The temporal evolution of the mantle melting processes in the Asal Rift is evaluated from the chemical composition of 56 new lava flows sampled along 10 km of the rift axis and 9 km off-axis (i.e., erupted within the last 620 ky). Petrological and primary geochemical results show that most of the samples of the inner floor of the Asal Rift are affected by plagioclase accumulation. Trace element ratios and major element compositions corrected for mineral accumulation and crystallization show a symmetric pattern relative to the rift axis and preserved a clear signal of mantle melting depth variations. While FeO, Fe 8.0 , Zr/Y and (Dy/Yb) N decrease from the rift shoulders to the rift axis, SiO 2 , Na/Ti, Lu/Hf increase and Na 2 O and Na 8.0 are constant across the rift. These variations are qualitatively consistent with shallow melting beneath the rift axis and deeper melting for off-axis lava flows. Na 8.0 and Fe 8.0 contents show that beneath the rift axis, melting paths are shallow, from 81 ± 4 km to 43 ± 5 km. These melting paths are consistent with adiabatic melting in normal-temperature fertile asthenosphere, beneath an extensively thinned mantle lithosphere. On the contrary, melting on the rift shoulders (from 107 ± 7 km to 67 ± 8 km) occurred beneath thicker lithosphere, requiring a mantle solidus temperature 100 ± 40 °C hotter. In this geodynamic environment, the calculated rate of lithospheric thinning appears to be 4.0 ± 2.0 cm yr -1 , a value close to the mean spreading rate (2.9 ± 0.2 cm yr -1 ) over the last 620 ky.

Description: Global Positioning System (GPS) and Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR) data, collected from July 2007 to July 2008 on Mt. Etna, are analysed to define the dynamics preceding and accompanying the onset of the eruption on 13 May 2008. Short and long-term comparisons have been made on both GPS and radar data, covering similar time windows. Thanks to the availability of three GPS surveys the year before the eruption onset, an increase in the seawards movement of the NE flank of the volcano has been detected in the few months before the dike intrusion. The GPS ground deformation pattern also shows a slight inflation centred on the western side of the volcano in the pre-eruptive long-term comparison (from July 2007 to May 2008). The GPS has been integrated with DInSAR data by the SISTEM approach, to take advantage of the different methodologies and provide high spatial sampling of the 3D ground displacement pattern. We inverted the SISTEM results in order to model the pressure source causing the observed pre-eruptive inflation. The subsequent emplacement of the eruptive dike was imaged by two GPS surveys carried out on a dense network over the uppermost part of the volcano on May 6 and 13, i.e. a few days before and a few hours after the beginning of the eruption. We inverted this comparison to define the position, geometry and kinematics of the dike. The dike intrusion was also imaged by DInSAR data with temporal baselines of 2-3 months, which confirm strong displacements localized on the summit area, rapidly decreasing towards the middle flanks of the volcano, as detected by very short-term GPS data; furthermore, the comparison between DInSAR and GPS data highlighted the presence of a depressurizing source localized beneath the upper south-western area, acting just after the dike intrusion. Finally, the long period (one year) GPS and DInSAR data were integrated by SISTEM in order to finely depict the 3D ground deformation pattern with the highest spatial resolution. The long-period data allowed the complex kinematics of the volcano to be finely imaged and highlighting the interaction between flank dynamics and magma injection.

Description: While satellite based remote-sensing has provided hydrologists with valuable new datasets, integration of such datasets in operational modeling systems is usually not straightforward due to spatial or temporal resolution issues or because remote sensing does not directly measure the hydrological quantities of interest. This is the case for satellite based radar-altimetry. River level variations can be tracked using radar altimetry at a temporal resolution between 10 and 35 days, depending on the satellite, but hydrologists are typically interested in river flows rather than levels and require predictions at daily or even sub-daily temporal resolutions. One way to exploit satellite radar altimetry is therefore to combine the data with hydrological models in a data assimilation framework. In this study, radar altimetry data from 6 ENVISAT virtual stations were assimilated to a routing model of the main reach of the Brahmaputra River driven by the outputs of a calibrated rainfall runoff model. The Extended Kalman Filter was used to update the routed water volumes for the years 2008 to 2010. Model performance was improved with the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for daily discharge increasing from 0.78 to 0.84. The method uses very little in situ data and is easily implemented as an add-on to hydrological models and it therefore has the potential for large scale application to improve hydrological predictions in many river basins.

Description: Management of water temperatures in the Columbia River Basin (Washington) is critical because water projects have substantially altered the habitat of Endangered Species Act (ESA) listed species, such as salmon, throughout the basin. This is most important in tributaries to the Columbia, such as the Methow River, where the spawning and rearing life stages of these cold water fishes occurs. Climate change projections generally predict increasing air temperatures across the western United States, with less confidence regarding shifts in precipitation. As air temperatures rise, we anticipate a corresponding increase in water temperatures, which may alter the timing and availability of habitat for fish reproduction and growth. To assess the impact of future climate change in the Methow River, we couple historical climate and future climate projections with a statistical modeling framework to predict daily mean stream temperatures. A K -nearest neighbor algorithm is also employed to: (i) adjust the climate projections for biases compared to the observed record and (ii) provide a reference for performing spatiotemporal disaggregation in future hydraulic modeling of stream habitat. The statistical models indicate the primary drivers of stream temperature are maximum and minimum air temperature and streamflow and show reasonable skill in predictability. When compared to the historical reference time period of 1916-2006, we conclude that increases in stream temperature are expected to occur at each subsequent time horizon representative of the year 2020, 2040, and 2080, with an increase of 0.8 ± 1.9 °C by the year 2080.

Description: Thermal remote sensing methods for mapping evapotranspiration (ET) exploit the physical interconnection that exists between land-surface temperature (LST) and evaporative cooling, employing principles of surface energy balance (SEB). Unfortunately, while many applications in water resource management require ET information at daily and field spatial scales, current satellite-based thermal sensors are characterized by either low spatial resolution and high repeatability or by moderate/high spatial resolution and low frequency. Here we introduce a novel approach to ET mapping that fuses characteristics of both classes of sensors to provide optimal spatiotemporal coverage. In this approach, coarse resolution daily ET maps generated with a SEB model using geostationary satellite data are spatially disaggregated using daily MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) 1-km and bi-weekly Landsat LST imagery sharpened to 30-m. These ET fields are then fused to obtain daily ET maps at 30-m spatial resolution. The accuracy of the fused Landsat-MODIS daily ET maps was evaluated over Iowa using observations collected at 8 flux towers sited in corn and soybean fields during the Soil Moisture Experiment of 2002 (SMEX02), as well as in comparison with a Landsat-only retrieval. A significant improvement in ET accuracy (reducing errors from 0.75 to 0.58 mm/d on average) was obtained by fusing MODIS and Landsat data in comparison with the Landsat-only case, with most notable improvements when a rainfall event occurred between two successive Landsat acquisitions. The improvements are further evident at the seasonal timescale, where a 3% error is obtained using Landsat-MODIS fusion vs. a 9% Landsat-only systematic underestimation.

Description: A regional survey of alkaline springs in Oman and Ligurian ophiolites shows that the alkaline water compositions significantly vary from one ophiolite to the other and within the same ophiolite. The first order correlation between the Na (and K) and Cl concentrations points to fluid compositions only partly due to evaporation. The scatter around the evaporation line implies that Na and Cl may not be conservative during the alteration of the ultramafic rocks. Mg is almost entirely depleted at pH 〉 10.5 as a result of serpentine formation within the ultramafic body and of brucite (and minor hydrotalcite) precipitation at the springs. Ca accumulates in the high pH fluids and is consumed by Ca-carbonate formation at the springs, by mixing with river waters or by the CO2 supply from the atmosphere. Thermodynamic calculations show that brucite saturation is reached at pH values around 10.5 which triggers major changes in the water composition. The waters evolve from a quartz-saturated low pH continental environment to a brucite-dominated high pH serpentinizing system at low temperature. The highest water salinities are found in springs located along the basal thrust plane of the ophiolite. The highest Al concentrations are found in some springs located on the crustal side of the mantle/crust boundary. This poses the question of the hydrologic pathways and of the role of the mineralogical composition of the altered formations.

Description: [1]  This study examines the effect of gas hydrate formation on seismic wave velocities of fine-grained sediments. Synthesis of gas hydrates in fine-grained sediments has proved to be challenging, and how hydrate formation would affect the seismic wave velocities and stiffness of clay-rich sediments has not yet been fully understood. In this study, CO 2 hydrate was synthesized in remolded and partially water-saturated clayey silt sediments that were originally cored from a hydrate occurrence region in the Ulleung Basin, East Sea, offshore Korea. After achieving excess water conditions, compressional wave and shear wave velocities were measured for different hydrate saturations and under different vertical effective stresses. The results reveal that the compressional wave velocity V P and shear wave velocity V S increase and the stress-dependency of V P and V S decreases as the hydrate saturation S H increases from 0% to ~60%. In particular, the V S ‒S H trend lies between the grain-cementing model and the load-bearing model, suggesting that gas hydrate formation in clayey silt sediments causes weak cementation from a hydrate saturation less than ~28%. The weak cementation in fine-grained sediments can be explained by the breakage of hydrate bonds that are cementing grains during sediment compression and/or the innate weakness in bonding between hydrate crystals and fine mineral grains owing to the presence of unfrozen water films on clay mineral surfaces. In addition, it is found that at low S H the cementation effect on V P is masked by the high stiffness of pore-filling phases, but it becomes pronounced at S H greater than 47%.

Description: [1]  Mountain rivers play a key role in the delivery of particulate organic carbon (POC) to large river systems and the ocean. Due to the extent of its drainage area and runoff, the Amazon River is one of Earth's most important biogeochemical systems. However the source of POC eroded from the humid region of the Eastern Andes and the input of fossil POC from sedimentary rocks (POC fossil ) remains poorly constrained. Here we collected suspended sediments from the Kosñipata River during flood events to better characterise Andean POC, measuring the nitrogen to organic carbon ratio (N/C), stable carbon isotopes ( δ 13 C org ) and radiocarbon ( Δ 14 C org ). Δ 14 C org values ranged from -711‰ to -15‰ and significant linear trends between Δ 14 C org, N/C and δ 13 C org suggested that this reflects the mixing of POC fossil with very young organic matter ( Δ 14 C org  ~ 50‰) from the terrestrial biosphere (POC non-fossil ). Using N/C and Δ 14 C org in an end member mixing analysis, we quantify the fraction of POC fossil (to within 0.1) and find that it contributes a constant proportion of the suspended sediment mass (0.37 ± 0.03%) and up to 80% of total POC. In contrast, the relative contribution of POC non-fossil was variable, being most important during the rising limb and peak discharges of flood-events. The new data shed light on published measurements of ‘old’ POC (low Δ 14 C org ) in Andean-fed tributaries of the Amazon River, with their Δ 14 C org and δ 13 C org values consistent with variable addition of POC fossil . The findings suggest a greater persistence of Andean POC in the lowland Amazon than previously recognised.

Description: [1]  The D’ Entrecasteaux Island (DEI) gneiss domes are fault-bounded domes with ~2.5 km of relief exposing ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) and high-pressure (HP) metamorphic gneisses and migmatites exhumed in an Oligocene-Miocene arc-continent collision and subduction zone subject to Late Miocene to Recent continental extension. Multi-channel seismic (MCS) reflection data and well data show the Trobriand basin formed as a forearc basin caused by southward Miocene subduction at the Trobriand trench. Subduction slowed at ~8 Ma as the margin transitioned to an extensional tectonic environment. Since then, the Trobriand basin has subsided 1–2.5 km as a broad sag basin with few normal faults deforming the basin fill. South of the DEI, the Good enough rift basin developed after extension began (~8 Ma) as the hanging-wall of the north-dipping Owen-Stanley normal fault that bounds the basin's southern margin. The lack of upper crustal extension accompanying subsidence in the Trobriand and Good enough basins suggests depth-dependent lithospheric extension since 8 Ma has accompanied uplift of the DEI gneiss domes. Structural reconstructions of seismic profiles show 2.3 to 13.4 km of basin extension in the upper crust, while syn-rift basin subsidence values indicate at least 20.7 to 23.6 km of extension occurred in the entire crust since ~8 Ma. Results indicating thinning is preferentially accommodated in the lower crust surrounding the DEI are used to constrain a schematic model of uplift of the DEI domes involving vertical exhumation of buoyant, post-orogenic lower crust, far-field extension from slab rollback, and an inverted two-layer crustal density structure.

Description: [1]  The relationship between lithospheric evolution of eastern Eurasia and subduction of the Pacific plate has long been debated. However, the timing and implications of subduction on the tectonics of eastern China are not well constrained. Here, we present new zircon U-Pb ages and Hf isotopes, elemental and Sr-Nd-Pb isotopic data on Cretaceous volcanic rocks from the Ningwu basin, eastern China to further address this issue. Our age data reveal rapid eruption of the volcanic rocks within a short duration from 133 to 130 Ma. The rocks, mostly characterized by shoshonitic and high-K calc-alkaline signatures, display light rare earth element and Pb enrichment, Nb, Ta and Ti depletion, highly radiogenic Sr-Pb isotopic ratios and variable ε Hf (t) (+1.8 to −10), suggesting derivation from an enriched lithospheric mantle metasomatized by marine sediments. The early lavas (133.3 ± 1.1 Ma) show stronger subducted-related signatures than the late lavas (130.1 ± 1.0 Ma), which we interpret to reflect consumption of a significant volume of fusible subducted components in the early melting phase. The large ε Hf (t) variation of late lavas suggests greater involvement of asthenospheric melts and lower crust in their petrogenesis. The youngest age (130 Ma) appears to coincide with an inferred change in the direction of Pacific-Eurasia convergence, manifested as a change from extension to transpression in eastern China. The narrow window of eruption may signify a rapid change of the tectonic regime in the Early Cretaceous.

Description: This study reports on two strategies for accelerating posterior inference of a highly parameterized and CPU-demanding groundwater flow model. Our method builds on previous stochastic collocation approaches [e.g., Marzouk and Xiu , 2009; Marzouk and Najm , 2009] and uses generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) theory to emulate the output of a large-scale groundwater flow model. The resulting surrogate model is CPU-efficient and serves to explore the posterior distribution at a much lower computational cost using two-stage MCMC simulation. The case study reported in this paper demonstrates a 2-5 times speed up in sampling efficiency.

Description: An earlier infiltration equation relied on curve fitting of infiltration data for the determination of one of the parameters, which limits its usefulness in practice. This handicap is removed here and the parameter is now evaluated by linking it directly to soil-water properties. The new predictions of infiltration using this evaluation are quite accurate. Positions and shapes of soil-water profiles are also examined in detail and found to be predicted analytically with great precision.

Description: Mid-ocean ridges magmatism is by and large considered to be mostly dry. Nevertheless, numerous works in the last decade have shown that a hydrous component is likely to be involved in ocean ridges magmas genesis and / or evolution. The petrology and geochemistry of peculiar coarse grained gabbros sampled in the upper part of the gabbroic sequence from the Northern Oman ophiolite (Wadi Rajmi) provide information on the origin and fate of hydrous melts in fast spreading oceanic settings. Uncommon crystallization sequences for oceanic settings (clinopyroxene crystallizing before plagioclase), extreme mineral compositions (plagioclase An% up to 99, and clinopyroxene Mg# up to 96), and the presence of magmatic amphibole, imply the presence of a high water activity during crystallization. Various petrological and geochemical constraints point to hydration resulting from the recycling of hydrothermal fluids. This recycling event may have occurred at the top of the axial magma chamber where assimilation of anatectic hydrous melts is recurrent along mid-ocean ridges, or close to segments ends where fresh magma intrudes previously hydrothermally altered crust. In ophiolitic settings, hydration and remelting of hydrothermally altered rocks producing hydrous melts may also occur during the obduction process. Although dry magmatism dominates oceanic magmatism, the dynamic behavior of fast spreading ocean ridge magma chambers has the potential to produce the observed hydrous melts (either in ophiolites or at spreading centers), which are thus part of the general mid-ocean ridges lineage.

Description: The Seismic Array HiKurangi Experiment (SAHKE) investigated the structure of the forearc and subduction plate boundary beneath the southern North Island along a 350 km transect. Tomographic inversion of first-arrival travel times was used to derive a 15-20 km deep P-wave image of the crust. The refracted phases and migrated reflection events image subducting slab geometry and crustal structure. In the west, Australian Plate Moho depth decreases westward across the Taranaki Fault system from 35 to ~28-30 km. In the east, subducted Pacific Plate oceanic crust is recognised to have a positive velocity gradient, but becomes less distinct beneath the Tararua Ranges, where the interface increases in dip at about 15 km depth from 〈5° to 〉15°. This bend in the subducted plate is associated with vertical clusters in seismicity, splay fault branching, and low-velocity high-attenuation material that we interpret to be an underplated subduction sedimentary channel. We infer that a step down in the decollément transfers slip on the plate interface at the top of a subduction channel to the oceanic crust and drives local uplift of the Tararua Ranges. Reflections from the Wairarapa Fault show that it is listric and soles into the top of underplated sediments, which in turn abut the Moho of the over-riding plate at ~32 km depth, near the downdip end of the strongly locked zone. The change in dip of the Hikurangi subduction interface is spatially correlated with the transition from geodetically determined locked to unlocked areas of the plate interface.

Description: Fibre-optic Distributed Temperature Sensing (FO-DTS) has been frequently applied for analysing thermal patterns, including the identification of groundwater-surface water exchange fluxes across aquifer-river interfaces. However, the impacts of a) seasonal variability in signal strength (given by the difference between groundwater and surface water temperatures) and b) monitoring modes on the accuracy of FO-DTS surveys has not yet been determined. This study uses a well investigated field site as model system for quantifying the accuracy and uncertainty of FO-DTS surveys in dependency of seasonal signal variation and monitoring mode. The analysis of the relationship between seasonal variability in signal strength and diurnal oscillations in end-member temperatures at the study site revealed that winter conditions, with substantially lower diurnal temperature oscillations provide the highest temporal stability in signal strength. The choice of monitoring mode proved to have significant impact on the accuracy of FO-DTS surveys. The proposed two-way single-ended averaging of FO-DTS surveys had significant advantages compared to single-ended or double-ended surveys, with a higher accuracy in signal detection in particular for small-scale temperature variations. Since FO-DTS surveys in two-way single-ended averaging mode were better suited for detecting the full complexity of spatial temperature patterns for the investigated aquifer-river interface, we recommend its wider application in similarly complex systems with small-scale thermal patterns.

Description: The paper presents a semianalytical method to solve the multispecies reactive solute-transport equation coupled with a sequential first-order reaction network under spatially or temporally varying flow velocities and dispersion coefficients. This method employs the generalized integral transform technique (GITT) and general linear transformation method by Clement [2001] to transform the set of coupled multispecies reactive transport equations into a set of independent uncoupled equations and to solve these independent equations for spatially or temporally varying flow velocities and dispersion coefficients, as well for temporally varying inlet concentration. The proposed semianalytical solution is compared against previously published analytical solutions of Srinivasan and Clement [2008b] and van Genuchten [1985]. An example is used to show application of the solution to a hypothetical multilayered medium. The solution of proposed approach is compared also with a numerical solution using the 2DFATMIC. Three scenarios are illustrated to show the capabilities of the proposed semianalytical method to deal with aquifer heterogeneity and transient situations. We also show a practical implementation of the solution to an actual field, single-well push-pull test (PPT) example designed to obtain the concentration distribution of reactants consumed and products formed at the end of the injection phase.

Description: The acquisition of reliable datasets representative of hydrological regimes and their variations is a critical concern for water resource assessment. For the subsurface, traditional approaches based on probe measurements, core analysis and well data can be laborious, expensive, and highly intrusive, while only yielding sparse data sets. For this study, an innovative field survey, merging relative microgravimetry, magnetic resonance soundings and hydrological measurements, was conducted to evaluate both surface and subsurface water storage variations in a semi-arid Sahelian area. The instrumental setup was implemented in the lower part of a typical hillslope feeding to a temporary pond. Weekly measurements were carried out using relative spring gravimeters during three months of the rainy season in 2009 over a 350 × 500 m 2 network of twelve microgravity stations. Gravity variations of small to medium amplitude (≤ 220 nm s 2 ) were measured with accuracies better than 50 nm s -2 , revealing significant variations of the water storage at small time (from one week up to three months) and space (from a couple of meters up to a few hundred meters) scales. Consistent spatial organization of the water storage variations were detected, suggesting high infiltration at the outlet of a small gully. The comparison with hydrological measurements and magnetic resonance soundings involved that most of the microgravity variations came from the heterogeneity in the vadose zone. The results highlights the potential of time lapse microgravity surveys for detecting intraseasonal water storage variations and providing rich space-time datasets for process investigation or hydrological model calibration/evaluation.

Description: The instantaneous turbulent flow fields over a smooth bed and a bed containing large-scale roughness elements are characterized by the presence of elongated low and high streamwise momentum regions, or streaks. If the bed contains large-scale roughness elements (e.g., dunes), the size of the streaks increases and is of the order of the size of these elements and the flow depth. The present large eddy simulation (LES) study focuses on the case of developing flow within wide channels containing at the bottom a long array of spanwise-oriented sinusoidal 2D dunes (2a/h=0.1, λ/h=1, λ is the wavelength, 2a is the dune height, h is the mean flow depth) and, respectively, an array of 2D asymmetric dunes (2a/h=0.25, λ/h=3.75) of closer shape to the ones observed in natural streams. For the case of an incoming steady flow, the instantaneous flow fields, in the region where the flow transitions toward a fully-developed turbulent flow regime, contain arrays of highly-organized hairpin vortices whose dimensions are larger than the dune height. LES shows that for relatively shallow channels (e.g., channels with 2a/h=0.25), the large-scale hairpins and the streaks penetrate regularly up to the free surface, thus affecting mass transport and mixing over the whole water column. The paper explains the mechanism for the formation of these arrays of hairpin vortices and discusses changes between a case with asymmetric dunes that are characterized by a large value of λ/2a (=15) and a long upslope face, and a case with symmetric dunes for which λ/2a=10, the upslope face is relatively short and the rate of change of the bed curvature around the dune's crest is relatively small. The study discusses the main mechanisms through which large-scale hairpin form and how these mechanisms change between two dune geometries (sinusoidal vs. asymmetric dunes). We also show that hairpin eddies play the primary role in the formation of the streaks over the region containing dunes and we characterize the average dimensions of these streaks. The presence of resolved turbulence in the incoming flow reduces the streamwise distance needed for the streaks to develop over region containing dunes, but does not affect qualitatively the transition process toward the fully-developed flow regime, nor the spacing of the streaks in the fully-developed flow region.

Description: Parlange and Brutsaert [1987] derived a modified Boussinesq equation to account for the capillary effect on watertable dynamics in unconfined aquifers. Barry et al . [1996] solved this equation subject to a periodic boundary condition. Their solution shows significant influence of capillarity on watertable fluctuations, which evolve to finite-amplitude standing waves at the high frequency limit. Here, we propose a new governing equation for the watertable, which considers both horizontal and vertical flows in an unsaturated zone of finite thickness. An approximate analytical solution for periodic watertable fluctuations based on the new equation was derived. In agreement with previous results, the analytical solution shows that the unsaturated zone's storage capacity permits watertable fluctuations to propagate more readily than predicted by the Boussinesq equation. Furthermore, the new solution reveals a capping effect of the unsaturated zone on both the amplitude and phase of the watertable fluctuations as well as the watertable overheight. Due to the finite thickness of the unsaturated zone, the capillary effect on watertable fluctuations is modified mainly with reduced amplitude damping and phase shift.

Description: [1]  The origin of crustal-scale silicic magmatism remains a matter of debate, and notable uncertainty exists concerning the physical mechanisms that drive ascent and emplacement of felsic magmas in upper crustal regions. A 2D numerical model demonstrates that injection of mantle-derived mafic magma into a partially molten hot zone in the lower crust can drive felsic magma ascent and intrusion into upper crustal levels. The injection of mafic magma induces over pressure in the reservoir, which increases crustal stresses and triggers development of brittle/plastic shear zones, and can drive significant surface uplift. The emerging topography causes a non-uniform over pressure distribution in the reservoir and can trigger felsic magma ascent along crustal shear zones. Based on systematic numerical experiments we investigate the influence of crustal strength and injection rate. The initial upper crustal strength controls the degree of crustal faulting and surface uplift and, therefore, whether felsic magma ascent can be initiated or not. The final upper crustal strength influences the depth and final style of felsic intrusion. The injection rate of mafic magma determines the time scale of overpressure growth and surface uplift stage. In contrast, the duration of the subsequent felsic ascent and intrusion emplacement stages remains nearly constant. Our results imply that mafic underplating and intrusion into the lower crust may not only be a prime control for the generation of felsic magmas in the lower crust, but may also be an important physical driving mechanism for felsic magma ascent and intrusion into upper crustal levels.

Description: Impacts of rising sea level on the hydraulic balance between aquifers and the ocean threaten fresh water resources and aquatic ecosystems along many world coastlines. Understanding the vulnerability of groundwater systems to these changes and the primary factors that determine the magnitude of system response is critical to developing effective management and adaptation plans in coastal zones. We assessed the vulnerability of two types of groundwater systems, recharge-limited and topography-limited, to changes caused by sea-level rise over a range of hydrogeologic settings. Vulnerability in this context is defined by the rate and magnitude of salinization of coastal aquifers and changes in groundwater flow to the sea. Two-dimensional variable-density groundwater flow and salt transport simulations indicate that the response of recharge-limited systems is largely minimal, whereas topography-limited systems are vulnerable for various combinations of permeability, vertical anisotropy in permeability, and recharge. World coastlines were classified according to system type as a vulnerability indicator. Results indicate that ~70% of world coastlines may be topography-limited, though variability in hydrogeologic conditions strongly affects classification. Future recharge and sea-level rise scenarios have much less influence on the proportion of vulnerable coastlines than differences in permeability, distance to a hydraulic divide, and recharge, indicating that hydrogeologic properties and setting are more important factors to consider in determining vulnerability than uncertainties in the magnitude of sea-level rise and hydrologic shifts associated with future climate change.

Description: ABSTRACT Given the range of future uncertainty, there is increasing interest in developing and evaluating water management strategies that are robust to an uncertain future. As part of a process termed “decision scaling”, a climate response function was developed to isolate the impact of climate change on a water system in terms of hazards identified by stakeholders. The climate response function was then used to evaluate system performance over a wide range of climate conditions and to define robustness indicators. The robustness indicators, which measure system performance as a function of climate state, are conditioned on explicit assumptions about climate variable probability distributions. To illustrate this process, it is applied to the Upper Great Lakes to evaluate system robustness related to water management decisions and assess the impact of climate probability assumptions. The robustness indicators were used to identify decisions that outperformed other courses of action regardless of assumptions of future climate probabilities.

Description: The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is marked by a prominent negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE) of 3-5‰ that has a characteristic rapid onset, stable body, and recovery to near pre-CIE isotopic composition. Although the CIE is the major criterion for global correlation of the Paleocene-Eocene boundary, spatial variations in the position and shape of the CIE have not been systematically evaluated. We measured carbon isotope ratios of bulk organic matter (δ 13 C org ) and pedogenic carbonate (δ 13 C carb ) at six PETM sections across a 16 km transect in the SE Bighorn Basin, Wyoming. Bed tracing and high-resolution floral and faunal biostratigraphy allowed correlation of the sections independent of chemostratigraphy. The onset of the CIE in bulk organic matter at all six sections occurs within a single laterally extensive geosol. The magnitude of the CIE varies from 2.1-3.8‰. The absolute and relative stratigraphic thickness of the body of the CIE in bulk organic matter varies significantly across the field area and under-represents the thickness of the PETM body by 30%-80%. The variations cannot be explained by basinal position and instead suggest that δ 13 C org values were influenced by local factors such as reworking of older carbon. The stratigraphic thickness and shape of the CIE have been used to correlate sections, estimate timing of biotic and climatic changes relative to the presumed carbon isotope composition of the atmosphere, and calculate rates of environmental and biotic change. Localized controls on δ 13 C org values place these inferences in question by influencing the apparent shape and duration of the CIE.

Description: Recent studies suggest that there is a strong linkage between the moisture uptake over the equatorial area of the Somali Low Level Jet (SLLJ) and the rainfall variability over most of continental India. Additionally, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) strongly modulates the intraseasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, since the northward propagation of the boreal summer MJO is closely associated with the active and break phases of monsoon rainfall. But a question remains open: is there a relationship between the moisture transported by the SLLJ and the MJO evolution?. In this paper a lagrangian approach is used to track the evaporation minus precipitation (E - P) evolution along trajectories of particles initially situated over the equatorial region of SLLJ. The impact of the MJO on the water budget transport of the SLLJ is examined by making composites of the obtained (E - P) fields for the different MJO phases. The spatial structures of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation are revealed in our results, which strongly suggest that the main responsible for the rainfall variability associated to the MJO in these regions are the changes in the moisture advected by the SLLJ. In order to assess the MJO - SLLJ interaction, an analysis of the total-column mass and the total-column specific humidity transported by the SLLJ during the MJO life cycle is performed. While a systematic difference between air mass advected to India during active and break phases of MJO is not detected, changes in the moisture of particles are found, with wet (dry) anomalies over enhanced (suppressed) convection region. This result implicitly leads to assume air-sea interaction processes.

Description: Semiarid sedimentary plains occupied by dry forest ecosystems often display low groundwater recharge rates and accumulation of salts in the soil profile. The transformation of these natural systems to rain-fed agriculture has led to raising water tables and a slow, but steady, process of groundwater and soil salinization in vast areas of Australia. In the semiarid plains of Chaco (central South America), unprecedented deforestation rates are taken place. Based on deep soil sampling (0-6 m) in seven paired stands under natural dry forest, rain-fed agriculture and pasture, with different age of clearance (〉30 years, 20 and 3 years) in Salta, Argentina, we provide evidence of groundwater recharge increase and onset of salt mobilization in areas where forests were replaced by annual croplands. Soils with higher water and lower chloride content are evidence of deep percolation and salt leaching. In Salta, stands subject to 30 years of rain fed cultivation had profiles with 30 to 46% higher moisture content and 94% lower chloride stocks compared to dry forest (0.05 ± 0.04 kg/m 2 vs. 0.77 ± 0.4 kg/m 2 ). Estimates of groundwater recharge based on the displacement of chloride peaks suggested values of 27to 87mm/yr for agricultural soybean stands, and 10.4 mm/yr for pastures. While hydrological shifts in the regional groundwater system are poorly monitored and understood, our findings show that it is potentially sensitive to land use changes and to salinization processes.

Description: Estimates of the relative motion between the Hawaiian and Louisville hotspots have consequences for understanding the role and character of deep Pacific-mantle return flow. The relative motion between these primary hotspots can be inferred by comparing the age records for their seamount trails. We report 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages for 18 lavas from 10 seamounts along the Hawaiian-Emperor Seamount Chain (HESC), showing that volcanism started in the sharp portion of the Hawaiian-Emperor Bend (HEB) at ≥47.5 Ma and continued for ≥5 Myr. The slope of the along-track distance from the currently active Hawaiian hotspot plotted versus age is constant (57±2 km/Myr) between ~57 and 25 Ma in the central ~1900 km of the seamount chain, including the HEB. This model predicts an age for the oldest Emperor Seamounts that matches published ages, implying that a linear age-distance relationship might extend back to at least 82 Ma. In contrast, Hawaiian age progression was much faster since at least ~15 Ma and possibly as early as ~27 Ma. Linear age-distance relations for the Hawaii-Emperor and Louisville seamount chains predict ~300 km overall hotspot relative motion between 80 and 47.5 Ma, in broad agreement with numerical models of plumes in a convecting mantle, and paleomagnetic data We show that a change in hotspot relative motion may also have occurred between ~55 Ma and ~50 Ma. We interpret this change in hotspot motion as evidence that the HEB reflects a combination of hotspot and plate motion changes driven by the same plate/mantle reorganization.

Description: In regulated river systems, such as the River Murray in Australia, the efficient use of water to preserve and restore biota in the river, wetlands and floodplains is of concern for water managers. Available management options include the timing of river flow releases and operation of wetland flow control structures. However, the optimal scheduling of these environmental flow management alternatives is a difficult task, since there are generally multiple wetlands and floodplains with a range of species, as well as a large number of management options that need to be considered. Consequently, this problem is a multi-objective optimization problem aimed at maximizing ecological benefit while minimizing water allocations within the infrastructure constraints of the system under consideration. This paper presents a multi-objective optimization framework, which is based on a multi-objective ant colony optimization approach, for developing optimal trade-offs between water allocation and ecological benefit. The framework is applied to a reach of the River Murray in South Australia. Two studies are formulated to assess the impact of (i) upstream system flow constraints and (ii) additional regulators on this trade-off. The results indicate that unless the system flow constraints are relaxed, there is limited additional ecological benefit as allocation increases. Furthermore the use of regulators can increase ecological benefits while using less water. The results illustrate the utility of the framework since the impact of flow control infrastructure on the trade-offs between water allocation and ecological benefit can be investigated, thereby providing valuable insight to managers.

Description: ABSTRACT Axial Seamount, an active submarine volcano on the Juan de Fuca Ridge at 46°N, 130°W, erupted in January 1998 along 11 km of its upper south rift zone. We use ship-based multibeam sonar, high-resolution (1-m) bathymetry, sidescan sonar imagery, and submersible dive observations to map four separate 1998 lava flows that were fed from eleven eruptive fissures. These new mapping results give an eruption volume of 31 x 10 6 m 3 , 70% of which was in the northern-most flow, 23% in the southern-most flow, and 7% in two smaller flows in between. We introduce the concept of map-scale submarine lava flow morphology (observed at a scale of 100s of meters, as revealed by the high-resolution bathymetry), and an interpretive model in which two map-scale morphologies are produced by high effusion-rate eruptions: “inflated lobate flows” are formed near eruptive vents, and where they drain downslope more than 0.5-1.0 km, they transition to “inflated pillow flows.” These two morphologies are observed on the 1998 lava flows at Axial. A third map-scale flow morphology that was not produced during this eruption, “pillow mounds,” is formed by low effusion-rate eruptions in which pillow lava piles up directly over the eruptive vents. Axial Seamount erupted again in April 2011 and there are remarkable similarities between the 1998 and 2011 eruptions, particularly the locations of eruptive vents and lava flow morphologies. Because the 2011 eruption reused most of the same eruptive fissures, 58% of the area of the 1998 lava flows is now covered by 2011 lava.

Description: A global map of surface heat flow is presented on a 2° by 2° equal area grid. It is based on a global heat flow data set of over 38,000 measurements. The map consists of three components. Firstly, in regions of young ocean crust (〈67.7Ma) the model estimate uses a half-space conduction model based on the age of the oceanic crust, since it is well known that raw data measurements are frequently influenced by significant hydrothermal circulation. Secondly in other regions of data coverage the estimate is based on data measurements. At the map resolution these two categories (young ocean, data covered) cover 65% of Earth's surface. Thirdly, for all other regions the estimate is based on the assumption that there is a correlation between heat-flow and geology. This assumption is assessed and the correlation is found to provide a minor improvement over assuming that heat flow would be represented by the global average. The map is made available digitally.

Description: We present 36 new 40 Ar- 39 Ar incremental heating age determinations from the Caribbean Large Igneous Province (CLIP) providing evidence for extended periods of volcanic activity and suggest a new tectonomagmatic model for the province's timing and construction. These new 40 Ar- 39 Ar ages for the Curaçao Lava Formation (CLF) and Haiti's Dumisseau Formation show evidence for active CLIP volcanism from 94 to 63 Ma. No clear changes in geochemical character are evident over this period. The CLF has trace element signatures (e.g., Zr/Nb = 10-20) and flat rare earth element (REE) trends consistent with plume volcanism. The Dumisseau Formation also has plume-like geochemistry and steeper REE trends similar to ocean island basalts. Volcanism in the Dumisseau Formation appears to have largely ceased by 83 Ma while at Curaçao it continued until 63 Ma. A rapidly surfacing and melting plume head alone does not fit this age distribution. Instead, we propose that the residual Galapagos plume head, following initial ocean plateau construction, was advected eastward by asthenospheric flow induced by subducting oceanic lithosphere. Slab rollback at the Lesser Antilles and Central America subduction zones created an extensional regime within the Caribbean plate. Mixing of plume with upwelling asthenospheric mantle provided a source for intermittent melting and eruption through the original plateau over a ~30 Ma period.

Description: ABSTRACT A reactive transport modeling framework is presented that allows simultaneous assessment of groundwater flow, water quality evolution including δ 13 C, and 14 C activity or “age”. Through application of this framework, simulated 14 C activities can be directly compared with measured 14 C activities. This bypasses the need for interpretation of a 14 C age prior to flow simulation through factoring out processes other than radioactive decay, which typically involves simplifying assumptions regarding spatial and temporal variability in reactions, flow, and mixing. The utility of the approach is demonstrated for an aquifer system with spatially variable carbonate mineral distribution, multiple organic carbon sources, and transient boundary conditions for 14 C activity in the recharge water. In this case the simulated 14 C age was shown to be relatively insensitive to isotopic fractionation during DOC oxidation and variations in assumed DOC degradation behaviour. We demonstrate that the model allows quantitative testing of hypotheses regarding controls on groundwater age and water quality evolution for all three carbon isotopes. The approach also facilitates incorporation of multiple environmental tracers and combination with parameter optimization techniques. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Water scarcity is likely to increase in the coming years, making improvements in irrigation efficiency increasingly important. An emerging technology that promises to increase irrigation efficiency substantially is a wireless irrigation sensor network that uploads sensor data into irrigation management software, creating an integrated system that allows real-time monitoring and control of moisture status that has been shown in experimental settings to reduce irrigation costs, lower plant loss rates, shorten production times, decrease pesticide application, and increase yield, quality, and profit. We use an original survey to investigate likely initial acceptance, ceiling adoption rates, and profitability of this new sensor network technology in the nursery and greenhouse industry. We find that adoption rates for a base system and demand for expansion components are decreasing in price, as expected. The price elasticity of the probability of adoption suggests that sensor networks are likely to diffuse at a rate somewhat greater than that of drip irrigation. Adoption rates for a base system and demand for expansion components are increasing in specialization in ornamental production: Growers earning greater shares of revenue from greenhouse and nursery operations are willing to pay more for a base system and are willing to purchase larger numbers of expansion components at any given price. We estimate that growers who are willing to purchase a sensor network expect investment in this technology to generate significant profit, consistent with findings from experimental studies. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: This technical note presents a useful methodology for studying how the variance of hydraulic and/or reactive attributes of an aquifer are linked to the multi-scaled and hierarchical sedimentary architecture of the aquifer. A new recursive equation is derived which quantitatively describes how the variance is related to sedimentary facies defined at all scales across an entire stratal hierarchy. As compared to prior published equations that emphasize differences in means among facies populations within a hierarchical level, it emphasizes differences across levels. Because of the hierarchical relationships among the terms of the equation, we find it to be useful for conducting a holistic analysis of the relative contributions to the variance arising from all facies types defined across all scales. The methodology is demonstrated using appropriate field data, and is shown to be useful in defining parsimonious classification systems.

Description: ABSTRACT A primary concern for geologic carbon storage is the potential for leakage of stored carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into the shallow subsurface where it could degrade the quality of groundwater and surface water. In order to predict and mitigate the potentially negative impacts of CO 2 leakage, it is important to understand the physical processes that CO 2 will undergo as it moves through naturally heterogeneous porous media formations. Previous studies have shown that heterogeneity can enhance the evolution of gas phase CO 2 in some cases, but the conditions under which this occurs have not yet been quantitatively defined, nor tested through laboratory experiments. This study quantitatively investigates the effects of geologic heterogeneity on the process of gas phase CO 2 evolution in shallow aquifers through an extensive set of experiments conducted in a column that was packed with layers of various test sands. Soil moisture sensors were utilized to observe the formation of gas phase near the porous media interfaces. Results indicate that the conditions under which heterogeneity controls gas phase evolution can be successfully predicted through analysis of simple parameters, including the dissolved CO 2 concentration in the flowing water, the distance between the heterogeneity and the leakage location, and some fundamental properties of the porous media. Results also show that interfaces where a less permeable material overlies a more permeable material affect gas phase evolution more significantly than interfaces with the opposite layering.

Description: To study how an impacting plume modifies the mantle lithosphere, we analyzed the microstructures and crystal preferred orientations (CPO) of 29 peridotites and 37 pyroxenites that sample the mantle root of the Ontong Java Plateau (OJP) from 60 to 120 km depth. The peridotites show a strong compositional variability, but homogeneous coarse-granular to tabular microstructures, except for those equilibrated at the shallowest and deepest depths, which are porphyroclastic. All peridotites have clear olivine CPO, with dominant fiber-[010] patterns. Low intragranular misorientations and straight grain boundaries in olivine suggest that, above 100 km depth, annealing often followed deformation. Calculated density and P-wave velocities of the peridotites decrease weakly with depth. S-wave velocities decrease faster, resulting in increasing Vp/Vs ratio with depth. Calculated densities and seismic velocity profiles are consistent with those estimated for normal mantle compositions under a cold oceanic geotherm. Enrichment in pyroxenites may further increase seismic velocities. The calculated seismic properties cannot therefore explain the low S-waves velocities predicted by Rayleigh wave tomography and ScS data in the mantle beneath the OJP. Calculated P- and S-wave anisotropy is variable (2-12%). It is higher on average in the deeper section of the lithosphere. Because olivine has dominantly [010]-fiber CPO patterns, if foliations are horizontal, vertically propagating S-waves and Rayleigh waves will sample very weak anisotropy in the OJP mantle lithosphere. Moreover, if the orientation of the lineation changes with depth, the anisotropy-induced contrast in seismic properties might produce an intralithospheric reflector marking the stratification of the OJP mantle root.

Description: The quantification of heat and mass flow between deep reservoirs and the surface is important for understanding magmatic and hydrothermal systems. Here, we use high-resolution measurement of carbon dioxide flux (ϕCO 2 ) and heat flow at the surface to characterize the mass (CO 2 and steam) and heat released to the atmosphere from two magma-hydrothermal systems. Our soil gas and heat flow surveys at Rotokawa and White Island in the Taupō Volcanic Zone, New Zealand, include over 3,000 direct measurements of ϕCO 2 and soil temperature and 60 carbon isotopic values on soil gases. Carbon dioxide flux was separated into background and magmatic/hydrothermal populations based on the measured values and isotopic characterization. Total CO 2 emission rates (ΣCO 2 ) of 441 ± 84 t d -1 and 124 ± 18 t d -1 were calculated for Rotokawa (2.9 km 2 ) and for the crater floor at White Island (0.3 km 2 ), respectively. The total CO 2 emissions differ from previously published values by +386 t d -1 at Rotokawa and +25 t d -1 at White Island, demonstrating that earlier research underestimated emissions by 700% (Rotokawa) and 25% (White Island). These differences suggest that soil CO 2 emissions facilitate more robust estimates of the thermal energy and mass flux in geothermal systems than traditional approaches. Combining the magmatic/hydrothermal-sourced CO 2 emission (constrained using stable isotopes) with reservoir H 2 O:CO 2 mass ratios and the enthalpy of evaporation, the surface expression of thermal energy release for the Rotokawa hydrothermal system (226 MW t ) is 10 times greater than the White Island crater floor (22.5 MW t ).

Description: Fluvial sediment loads are frequently calculated with rating curves fit to measured sediment transport rates. Rating curves are often treated as statistical representations in which the fitted parameters have little or no physical meaning. Such models, however, may produce large errors when extrapolation is needed, and they provide no insight into the sediment transport process. It is shown that log-linear least squares, the usual method for fitting rating curves, does not generally produce physically meaningful parameter values. In addition, it cannot accommodate data that include zero-transport samples. Alternative fitting methods based non-linear least squares and on maximum likelihood parameter estimation are described and evaluated. The maximum likelihood approach is shown to fit synthetic data better than linear or non-linear least squares, and to perform well with data that include zero-transport samples. In contrast, non-linear least squares methods produce large errors in the parameter estimates when zero-transport samples are present or when the variance structure of the data is incorrectly specified. Analyses with fractional bedload data from a mountain stream suggest that bedload transport rates are gamma distributed, that the arrivals of bedload particles in a sampler conform to a Poisson distribution, and that the variance of non-zero samples can be expressed as a power function of the mean. Preliminary physical interpretations of variations in the rating curve parameters fit to fractional bedload data with the maximum likelihood method are proposed, and their relation to some previous interpretations of rating curve parameters are briefly discussed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: To better constrain the mechanical behavior of sediments accreted to accretionary prism, we conducted triaxial mechanical tests on natural samples from the Miura-Boso paleo-accretionary prism (Japan) in drained conditions with confining pressures up to 200 MPa as well as post-experiments P-wave velocity (V p ) measurements. During experiments, deformation is principally non-coaxial and accommodated by two successive modes of deformation, both associated with strain-hardening and velocity-strengthening behavior: (1) compaction-assisted shearing, distributed in a several mm-wide shear zone and (2) faulting, localized within a few tens of µm-wide, dilatant fault zone. Deformation is also associated with (1) a decrease in Young's modulus all over the tests, (2) anomalously low V p in the deformed samples compared to their porosity and (3) an increase in sensitivity of V p to effective pressure. We interpret this evolution of the poroelastic properties of the material as reflecting the progressive breakage of intergrain cement and the formation of microcracks along with macroscopic deformation. When applied to natural conditions, these results suggest that the deformation style (localized vs distributed) of shallow (z 〈 a few km) sediments is mainly controlled by the variations in stress/strain rate during the seismic cycle and is therefore independent of the porosity of sediments. Finally, we show that the effect of strain, through cement breakage and microcracks formation, may lower V p for effective pressure up to 40 MPa. As a consequence, the low V p anomalies observed in Nankai accretionary prisms by seismic imaging between 2 and 4km depth [ Kitajima and Saffer , 2012] could reflect sediment deformation rather than porosity anomalies. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: This study presents a new thermodynamic model for the calculation of phase relations during the melting of anhydrous spinel lherzolite at pressures of 1–2.5 GPa. The model is based on the total energy minimization algorithm for calculating phase equilibria within multicomponent systems and the thermodynamic configuration of Ueki and Iwamori [2013]. The model is based on a SiO 2 – Al 2 O 3 – FeO–Fe 3 O 4 –MgO–CaO system that includes silicate melt, olivine, clinopyroxene, orthopyroxene, and spinel as possible phases. The molar Gibbs free energy of the melt phase is modeled quasi-empirically, and the thermodynamic parameters for silicate melt end-member components are calibrated with a polybaric calibration database. The temperatures and pressures used in this newly compiled calibration dataset are 1230–1600 ∘ C and 0.9–3 GPa, corresponding to the stability range of spinel lherzolite. The modeling undertaken during this study reproduces the general features of experimentally determined melting phase relations of spinel lherzolite at 1–2.5 GPa, including the solidus temperature, the melt composition, the chemical reaction during melting and the degree of melting. This new thermodynamic modeling also reproduces phase relations of various bulk compositions from fertile to deplete spinel lherzolite and can be used in the modeling of polybaric mantle melting within various natural settings. Comparing the results derived from this new modeling with those produced using previous models indicates that the new approach outlined here, involving a combination of total energy minimization and the direct calibration of melt thermodynamic parameters at pressure and temperature conditions corresponding to mantle melting with a relatively simple melt thermodynamic equation, can accurately model polybaric melting phase relations. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The volatile contents of olivine-hosted (Fo89–71) melt inclusion glasses in rapidly quenched mafic tephras from volcanic front volcanoes of the Central American Volcanic Arc (CAVA) in Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica, were analyzed by secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) in order to derive the minimum eruptive output of CO2, along with H2O, Cl, and S. Details of the analytical method are provided that establish melt inclusion CO2 analyses with the Cameca ims6f at the Helmholtz Centre Potsdam. The highest CO2 concentrations (up to 1800 μg/g) are observed in Nicaraguan samples, while melt inclusions from Guatemala and Costa Rica have CO2 contents between 50 and 500 μg/g. CO2 does not positively covary with sediment/slab fluid tracers such as Ba/La, Ba/Th, or U/La. Instead, the highest CO2 concentrations occur in the inclusions with the most depleted incompatible element compositions and low H2O, approaching the composition of mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORBs), whereas the most H2O-rich inclusions are relatively CO2-poor (

Description: We use dissolved silicon together with its “geochemical twin” germanium for the first time as a hydrologic tracer to study water delivery to the stream during storm events in the Rio Icacos watershed, Puerto Rico. Ge and Si were measured on base flow, stormflow, springwater, and soil water samples. Compositions of all of these waters appear to reflect varying contributions from three components, which we attribute to solutes released from bedrock weathering (groundwater), from short-term soil-water interaction (quick soil water), and longer-term soil-water interaction (matrix soil water). Base flow stream waters have high Si and moderate Ge (Ge/Si ratio ∼0.29 μmol/mol), consistent with a predominantly bedrock weathering source as indicated by their similarity with water sampled from springs emerging from the saprolite-bedrock boundary on a hillslope landslide scar. During storm events there is a shift toward more dilute compositions (but higher Ge/Si ratios) similar to those measured on water samples from temporary depression storage and overland flow (quick soil water). Geochemical mass balance shows that 80%–90% of the stream chemistry can be explained by mixing groundwater with this quick soil water composition, which we infer to reflect new water traveling as shallow throughflow. Stream water δ18O values decrease to more negative values typical of precipitation supporting rapid delivery of rainwater to the stream channel during stormflow. The third component, with a Ge-rich composition characteristic of soil matrix water sampled by tension lysimeters, is required to explain higher stream water Ge/Si ratios measured during hydrograph recession. We infer from this an additional, slower, and less dominant pathway for delivery of soil water to the stream channel.

Description: We determined the focal mechanism solutions (FMS) of 191 crustal earthquakes as well as the stress tensor in the source area of the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi earthquake (2008 IMEQ, M7.2) that occurred in the central portion of northeast (NE) Japan. The FMS and the stress tensors were determined by using both 1-D and 3-D velocity models, which exhibit almost the same results. The differences caused by the use of 1-D and 3-D models can be neglected when compared with the differences due to the different methods, which indicates that the FMS and the stress tensor determined with a 1-D model are accurate enough to study the crustal stress field in the study region. The obtained P axis (σ1) trends WNW-ESE subhorizontally, and the T axis (σ3) is oriented subvertically in a NNE-SSW belt perpendicular to σ1. The σ1 orientation is consistent with the motion of the Pacific plate relative to NE Japan, which indicates that the plate boundary forces dominate the intraplate stress regime. Both temporal and spatial variations of the stress field in the IMEQ source area are detected, which may be induced by the stress rotation accompanying the main shock and its aftershocks. The seismogenic faults in the study area are estimated to be very weak, which argues against the concept of strong crust. The faults may be weakened by the high-temperature magma and the fluids in the lower crust and uppermost mantle that intrude upward into the shallower crust.

Description: We present a predictive, multiscale modeling framework for chemotaxis in porous media. This model results from volume averaging the governing equations for bacterial transport at the microscale and is expressed in terms of effective medium coefficients that are predicted from the solution of the associated closure problems. As a result, the averaged chemotactic velocity is an explicit function of the attractant concentration field and diffusivity, rather than an empirical effective chemotactic sensitivity coefficient. The model was validated by comparing the transverse bacterial concentration profiles with experimental measurements for Escherichia coli HCB1 in a T-sensor. The averaged chemotactic velocity predicted by the model was found to be within the range of values reported in the literature. Reasonable agreement (approximately 10% mean absolute error) between theory and experiments was found for several flow rates. In order to assess the potential for decreasing the computational demands of the model, the macroscale domain was divided into subdomains for the coupling of bacterial transport to that of the attractant. Sensitivity analysis was performed regarding the number of subdomains chosen, and the results indicate that bacterial transport (as measured by concentration profiles) was not highly affected by this choice. Overall, these results suggest that the predictive, multiscale modeling framework is reliable for modeling chemotaxis in porous media when chemotactic transport is significant compared to convective transport.

Description: The Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Hole 1301A on the eastern flank of Juan de Fuca Ridge was used in the first long-term deployment of microbial enrichment flow cells using osmotically driven pumps in a subseafloor borehole. Three novel osmotically driven colonization systems with unidirectional flow were deployed in the borehole and incubated for 4 years to determine the microbial colonization preferences for 12 minerals and glasses present in igneous rocks. Following recovery of the colonization systems, we measured cell density on the minerals and glasses by fluorescent staining and direct counting and found some significant differences between mineral samples. We also determined the abundance of mesophilic and thermophilic culturable organotrophs grown on marine R2A medium and identified isolates by partial 16S or 18S rDNA sequencing. We found that nine distinct phylotypes of culturable mesophilic oligotrophs were present on the minerals and glasses and that eight of the nine can reduce nitrate and oxidize iron. Fe(II)-rich olivine minerals had the highest density of total countable cells and culturable organotrophic mesophiles, as well as the only culturable organotrophic thermophiles. These results suggest that olivine (a common igneous mineral) in seawater-recharged ocean crust is capable of supporting microbial communities, that iron oxidation and nitrate reduction may be important physiological characteristics of ocean crust microbes, and that heterogeneously distributed minerals in marine igneous rocks likely influence the distribution of microbial communities in the ocean crust.

Description: Water temperature determines the spatial distribution of fish species, including cold-water fish such as trout, and is driven by the balance of the heat flux across the water surface and the heat flux across the sediment surface. In this study, a modified equilibrium temperature model was developed for cold-water streams that includes the effect of groundwater inflow. The modified equilibrium temperature model gives estimates of daily average stream temperature based on climate conditions, riparian shading, stream width, and groundwater input rate and temperature. For a small tributary stream with relatively uniform riparian shading, the modified equilibrium temperature was found to be a good predictor of daily average stream temperature, with a root-mean-square errors (RMSE) of 1.2°C. The modified equilibrium temperature model also gave good estimates (1.4°C RMSE) of daily average stream temperature for a larger stream when riparian shading was averaged over sufficiently long distances. A sensitivity analysis using the modified equilibrium temperature model confirmed that water temperature in cold-water streams varies strongly with riparian shading, stream width, and both groundwater inflow rate and temperature. These groundwater parameters therefore need to be taken into account when climate change impacts on stream temperature are projected. The stream temperature model developed in this study is a useful tool to characterize temperature conditions in cold-water streams with different levels of riparian shading and groundwater inputs and to assess the impact of future land use and climate change on temperature in these streams.

Description: We present the first comprehensive study of mass wasting processes in the continental slope of a convergent margin of a subduction zone where tectonic processes are dominated by subduction erosion. We have used multibeam bathymetry along ∼1300 km of the Middle America Trench of the Central America Subduction Zone and deep-towed side-scan sonar data. We found abundant evidence of large-scale slope failures that were mostly previously unmapped. The features are classified into a variety of slope failure types, creating an inventory of 147 slope failure structures. Their type distribution and abundance define a segmentation of the continental slope in six sectors. The segmentation in slope stability processes does not appear to be related to slope preconditioning due to changes in physical properties of sediment, presence/absence of gas hydrates, or apparent changes in the hydrogeological system. The segmentation appears to be better explained by changes in slope preconditioning due to variations in tectonic processes. The region is an optimal setting to study how tectonic processes related to variations in intensity of subduction erosion and changes in relief of the underthrusting plate affect mass wasting processes of the continental slope. The largest slope failures occur offshore Costa Rica. There, subducting ridges and seamounts produce failures with up to hundreds of meters high headwalls, with detachment planes that penetrate deep into the continental margin, in some cases reaching the plate boundary. Offshore northern Costa Rica a smooth oceanic seafloor underthrusts the least disturbed continental slope. Offshore Nicaragua, the ocean plate is ornamented with smaller seamounts and horst and graben topography of variable intensity. Here mass wasting structures are numerous and comparatively smaller, but when combined, they affect a large part of the margin segment. Farther north, offshore El Salvador and Guatemala the downgoing plate has no large seamounts but well-defined horst and graben topography. Off El Salvador slope failure is least developed and mainly occurs in the uppermost continental slope at canyon walls. Off Guatemala mass wasting is abundant and possibly related to normal faulting across the slope. Collapse in the wake of subducting ocean plate topography is a likely failure trigger of slumps. Rapid oversteepening above subducting relief may trigger translational slides in the middle Nicaraguan upper Costa Rican slope. Earthquake shaking may be a trigger, but we interpret that slope failure rate is lower than recurrence time of large earthquakes in the region. Generally, our analysis indicates that the importance of mass wasting processes in the evolution of margins dominated by subduction erosion and its role in sediment dynamics may have been previously underestimated.