ALBERT

Description: The high elevation of the Southern Puna Plateau, the widespread melting of its crust, the gap in intermediate depth seismicity and the recent eruptions of ignimbrite complexes can be explained by delamination of the lithospheric mantle beneath it. To test this hypothesis, an array consisting of 73 broad band and short period seismic stations was deployed in the region for a period of two years starting in 2007. We inverted the data using the two plane wave approach and obtained 1D and 3D Rayleigh wave phase velocities. Our dispersion curve shows that at short periods (〈70 s) the phase velocities are slightly higher than those of the Tibetan plateau and lower than those of the Anatolian plateau. At periods of 100-140 s we observe a low velocity zone that might be remnant hot asthenosphere below a flat slab (7-10 Ma). We estimate the average continental lithosphere thickness for the region to be between 100 and 130 km. Our three dimensional Rayleigh wave phase velocities show a high velocity anomaly at low frequencies (0.007, 0.008 and 0.009 Hz) slightly to the north of Cerro Galan. This would be consistent with the hypothesis of delamination in which a piece of lithosphere has detached and caused upwelling of hot asthenosphere which in turn caused widespread alkaline-collision related volcanism. This interpretation is also corroborated by our shear wave velocity model where a high velocity anomaly beneath the northern edge of Cerro Galan at 130 km depth is interpreted as the delaminated block on top of the subducting Nazca slab.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Patterns of migratory connectivity are a vital yet poorly understood component of the ecology and evolution of migratory birds. Our ability to accurately characterize patterns of migratory connectivity is often limited by the spatial resolution of the data but recent advances in probabilistic assignment approaches have begun pairing stable isotopes with other sources of data (e.g., genetic and mark-recapture) to improve the accuracy and precision of inferences based on a single marker. Here, we combine stable isotopes and geographic variation in morphology (wing length) to probabilistically assign Wood thrush (Hylocichla mustilena) captured on the wintering grounds to breeding locations. In addition, we use known origin samples to validate our model and assess potentially important impacts of covariates of isotopic and morphological data (age, sex and breeding location). Our results show that despite relatively high levels of mixing across their breeding and non-breeding ranges, moderate levels of migratory connectivity along an east-west gradient exist. In addition, combining stable isotopes with geographic variation in wing improved the precision of breeding assignments by 10% and 37% compared to assignments based on isotopes alone or wing length alone, respectively. These results demonstrate that geographical variation in morphological traits can greatly improve estimates of migratory connectivity when combined with other intrinsic markers (e.g., stable isotopes or genetic data). The wealth of morphological data available from museum specimens across the world represents a tremendously valuable, but largely untapped, resource that is widely applicable for quantifying patterns of migratory connectivity.

Description: At present continental to global scale flood forecasting predicts at a point discharge, with little attention to detail and accuracy of local scale inundation predictions. Yet, inundation variables are of interest and all flood impacts are inherently local in nature. This paper proposes a large scale flood inundation ensemble forecasting model that uses best available data and modeling approaches in data scarce areas. The model was built for the Lower Zambezi River to demonstrate current flood inundation forecasting capabilities in large data-scarce regions. ECMWF ensemble forecast (ENS) data were used to force the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) hydrological model, which simulated and routed daily flows to the input boundary locations of a 2-D hydrodynamic model. Efficient hydrodynamic modeling over large areas still requires model grid resolutions that are typically larger than the width of channels that play a key a role in flood wave propagation. We therefore employed a novel sub-grid channel scheme to describe the river network in detail whilst representing the floodplain at an appropriate scale. The modeling system was calibrated using channel water levels from satellite laser altimetry and then applied to predict the February 2007 Mozambique floods. Model evaluation showed that simulated flood edge cells were within a distance of between one and two model resolutions compared to an observed flood edge and inundation area agreement was on average 86%. Our study highlights that physically plausible parameter values and satisfactory performance can be achieved at spatial scales ranging from tens to several hundreds of thousands of km 2 and at model grid resolutions up to several km 2 .

Description: A class of capillary flows in unsaturated porous media is characterized by quasi-steady viscous flow confined behind curved air-water interfaces and within liquid bodies held by capillary forces along crevices and grain contacts. The geometry of the connected capillary liquid network within the pore space resembles channels that form between adjacent bubbles in foam (Plateau borders) with solid grains representing gas bubbles in foam. For simplified channel geometry we combine expressions for viscous flow with continuity considerations to describe the evolution of the channels cross-sectional area during gravity drainage. This formulation enables modeling of unsaturated flow without invoking the Richards equation and associated hydraulic functions. We adapt a formalism originally developed for foam “free drainage” (drainage under gravity) or “forced drainage” (infiltration front motion) to a class of unsaturated flows in porous media that require a few input parameters only (mean channel corner angle, air entry value and porosity) for certain initial and boundary conditions. We demonstrate that the reduction in capillary channel cross section yields a consistent description of self-regulating internal fluxes towards attainment of the so-called “field capacity” in soil and provides an alternative method for interpretation of outflow experiments for prescribed pressure boundary conditions. Additionally, the geometrically-explicit formulation provides a more intuitive picture of capillary flows across textural boundaries (changes in channel cross-section and number of channels). The foam drainage methodology expands the range of tools available for analyses of unsaturated flow processes and offers more realistic links between liquid configuration and flow dynamics in unsaturated porous media.

Description: Synthetic streamflows at different sites in a river basin are needed for planning, operation and management of water resources projects. Modeling the temporal and spatial dependence structure of monthly streamflow at different sites is generally required. In this study, the maximum entropy copula method is proposed for multisite monthly streamflow simulation, in which the temporal and spatial dependence structure is imposed as constraints to derive the maximum entropy copula. The monthly streamflows at different sites are then generated by sampling from the conditional distribution. A case study for the generation of monthly streamflow at three sites in the Colorado River basin illustrates the application of the proposed method. Simulated streamflow from the maximum entropy copula is in satisfactory agreement with observed streamflow.

Description: The Krycklan Catchment Study (KCS) provides a unique field infrastructure for hillslope to landscape-scale research on short and long-term ecosystem dynamics in boreal landscapes. The site is designed for process-based research assessing the role of external drivers including forest management, climate change, and long-range pollutant transport on forests, mires, soils, streams, lakes and groundwater. The over-arching objectives of KCS are to (1) provide a state-of-the-art infrastructure for experimental and hypothesis driven research, (2) maintain a collection of high quality, long-term climatic, biogeochemical, hydrological and environmental data, and (3) support the development of models and guidelines for research, policy and management.

Description: 3-D Hydraulic Tomography (3-D HT) is a method for aquifer characterization whereby the 3-D spatial distribution of aquifer flow parameters (primarily hydraulic conductivity, K) is estimated by joint inversion of head change data from multiple partially-penetrating pumping tests. While performance of 3-D HT has been studied extensively in numerical experiments, few field studies have demonstrated the real-world performance of 3-D HT. Here we report on a 3-D transient hydraulic tomography (3-D THT) field experiment at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site which is different from prior approaches in that it represents a “baseline” analysis of 3-D THT performance using only a single arrangement of a central pumping well and 5 observation wells with nearly complete pumping and observation coverage at 1m intervals. We jointly analyze all pumping tests using a geostatistical approach based on the quasi-linear estimator of kitanidis [1995]. We reanalyze the system after progressively removing pumping and/or observation intervals; significant progressive loss of information about heterogeneity is quantified as reduced variance of the K field overall, reduced correlation with slug test K estimates at wells, and reduced ability to accurately predict independent pumping tests. We verify that imaging accuracy is strongly improved by pumping and observational densities comparable to the aquifer heterogeneity geostatistical correlation lengths. Discrepancies between K profiles at wells, as obtained from HT and slug tests, are greatest at the tops and bottoms of wells where HT observation coverage was lacking.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Predicting how climate change is likely to interact with myriad other stressors that threaten species of conservation concern is an essential challenge in aquatic ecosystems. This study provides a framework to accomplish this task in salmon-bearing streams of the northwestern United States, where land-use related reductions in riparian shading have caused changes in stream thermal regimes, and additional warming from projected climate change may result in significant losses of coldwater fish habitat over the next century. Predatory non-native smallmouth bass have also been introduced into many northwestern streams and their range is likely to expand as streams warm, presenting an additional challenge to the persistence of threatened Pacific salmon. The goal of this work was to forecast the interactive effects of climate change, riparian management, and non-native species on stream-rearing salmon, and to evaluate the capacity of restoration to mitigate these effects. We intersected downscaled global climate forecasts with a local-scale water temperature model to predict mid- and end-of-century temperatures in streams in the Columbia River basin; we compared one stream that is thermally impaired due to the loss of riparian vegetation and another that is cooler and has a largely intact riparian corridor. Using the forecasted stream temperatures in conjunction with fish-habitat models, we predicted how stream-rearing Chinook salmon and bass distributions would change as each stream warmed. In the highly modified stream, end-of-century warming may cause near total loss of Chinook salmon rearing habitat and a complete invasion of the upper watershed by bass. In the less modified stream, bass were thermally restricted from the upstream-most areas. In both systems, temperature increases resulted in higher predicted spatial overlap between stream-rearing Chinook salmon and potentially predatory bass in the early summer (2-4-fold increase) and greater abundance of bass. We found that riparian restoration could prevent the extirpation of Chinook salmon from the more altered stream, and could also restrict bass from occupying the upper 31 km of salmon rearing habitat. The proposed methodology and model predictions are critical for prioritizing climate-change adaptation strategies before salmonids are exposed to both warmer water and greater predation risk by non-native species.

Description: Chlorine isotope compositions of high-pressure (~2.3 GPa) serpentinite, rodingite, and hydrothermally altered oceanic crust (AOC) differ significantly from high- and ultrahigh-pressure (〉3.2 GPa) metasedimentary rocks in the Aosta region, Italy. Texturally early serpentinites, rodingites, and AOC have bulk δ 37 Cl values indistinguishable from those of modern seafloor analogues (δ 37 Cl = -1.0 to +1.0‰). In contrast, serpentinites and AOC samples that recrystallized during exhumation have low δ 37 Cl values (-2.7 to -0.5‰); 37 Cl depletion correlates with progressive changes in bulk chemistry. HP/UHP metasediments have low δ 37 Cl values (median = -2.5‰) that differ statistically from modern marine sediments (median = -0.6‰). Cl in metasedimentary rocks is concentrated in texturally early minerals, indicating modification of seafloor compositions early in the subduction history. The data constrain fluid sources during both subduction- and exhumation-related phases of fluid-rock interaction: (1) Marine sediments at the top of the downgoing plate likely interacted with isotopically light pore fluids from the accretionary wedge in the early stages of subduction. (2) No pervasive interaction with externally derived fluid occurred during subsequent subduction to the maximum depths of burial. (3) Localized mixing between serpentinites and fluids released by previously isotopically modified metasediments occurred during exhumation in the subduction channel. Most samples, however, preserved protolith signatures during subduction to near-arc depths.

Description: We have measured Ni, Ca, and Mn in olivine phenocrysts from volcanoes in the Galápagos Archipelago to infer the mantle source lithologies. Results show that peridotite is the dominant source lithology for Fernandina, Floreana, Genovesa, Wolf Island, and Darwin Island. These volcanoes largely characterize the PLUME, WD, FLO and DUM Nd, Sr, and Pb isotopic endmembers of Harpp and White (2001). Volcan Wolf, Alcedo, Marchena, and Cerro Azul, also produced from the melting of peridotite sources, have isotopic compositions that can be defined by mixing of the 4 isotopic endmembers. Our analysis suggests that peridotite was present in the sources of the volcanoes covered in this study and therefore is the dominant source lithology of the Galápagos plume. Pyroxenite melting is generally focused in two isotopically distinct domains: Roca Redonda, Volcan Ecuador, and Sierra Negra in the enriched western part of the archipelago, and Santiago, Santa Cruz, and Santa Fe in the depleted east. One implication of this finding is that the Western and Eastern Pyroxenite Domains represent two separate bodies of recycled crust within the Galápagos mantle plume. Furthermore, both isotopically enriched and depleted domains of the archipelago were generated from mixtures of peridotite and pyroxenite. This suggests that there is no relationship between the source lithology of the Galápagos plume and its isotopic characteristics. The identification of peridotite source melting in volcanoes with isotopic characteristics that have been attributed to recycled crust points to the importance of mixing in OIB genesis, consistent with studies in the Canary Islands.

Description: Probabilistic estimates of future water levels and river discharge are usually simulated with hydrologic models using ensemble weather forecasts as main inputs. As hydrologic models are imperfect and the meteorological ensembles tend to be biased and underdispersed, the ensemble forecasts for river runoff typically are biased and underdispersed, too. Thus, in order to achieve both reliable and sharp predictions statistical post-processing is required. In this work Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is applied to statistically post-process ensemble runoff raw forecasts for a catchment in Switzerland, at lead-times ranging from 1 to 240 hours. The raw forecasts have been obtained using deterministic and ensemble forcing meteorological models with different forecast lead-time ranges. First, BMA is applied based on mixtures of univariate normal distributions, subject to the assumption of independence between distinct lead-times. Then, the independence assumption is relaxed in order to estimate multivariate runoff forecasts over the entire range of lead-times simultaneously, based on a BMA version that uses multivariate normal distributions. Since river runoff is a highly skewed variable, Box-Cox transformations are applied in order to achieve approximate normality. Both univariate and multivariate BMA approaches are able to generate well calibrated probabilistic forecasts that are considerably sharper than climatological forecasts. Additionally, multivariate BMA provides a promising approach for incorporating temporal dependencies into the post-processed forecasts. Its major advantage against univariate BMA is an increase in reliability when the forecast system is changing due to model availability.

Description: Paleomagnetic analysis and radiocarbon dating of an expanded Holocene deep-sea sediment sequence recovered by Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 303 from Labrador Sea Site U1305 (Lat: 57°28.5 N, Long. 48°31.8 W, water depth 3459 m) provides insights into mechanisms that drive both paleomagnetic secular variation (PSV) and magnetization acquisition in deep-sea sediments. Seventeen radiocarbon dates on planktonic foraminifera define postglacial (c. 8 ka) sedimentation rates as ranging from 35 to 〉 90 cm/kyr. Alternating field (AF) demagnetization of u-channel samples show that these homogeneous sediments preserve a strong, stable, and consistently well-defined component magnetization. Normalized remanence records pass reliability criteria for relative paleointensity (RPI) estimates. Assuming that the age of magnetization is most accurately defined by well dated PSV records with the highest sedimentation rates, allows us to estimate and correct for temporal offsets at Site U1305 interpreted to result from post-depositional remanence acquisition at a depth of ~ 20 cm. Comparisons indicate that the northern North Atlantic PSV and RPI records are more consistent with European than North American records, and the evolution of virtual geomagnetic poles (VGP) are temporally and longitudinally similar to global reconstructions, though with much larger latitudinal variation. The largest deviations from a geocentric axial dipole (GAD) are observed during times of the highest intensities, in contrast to the usual assumption. These observations are consistent with the idea that PSV in the North Atlantic and elsewhere during the Holocene results from temporal oscillations of high latitude flux concentrations at a few recurrent locations.

Description: We derive a series solution for the nonlinear Boussinesq equation in terms of the similarity variable of the Boltzmann transformation in a semi-infinite domain. The first few coefficients of the series have been known for a long time, having been obtained by a truncated inversion of the series solution of the Blasius equation, but no direct recurrence relation was known for the complete series representing the solution of the Boussinesq equation. The series turns out to have a finite radius of convergence, which we estimate with a numerical complex-plane integration method that identifies the singularities of the solution when the equation is extended to the complex plane. The homogeneous condition at the origin produces a singularity which complicates numerical solutions with Runge-Kutta methods. We present two variable transformations that circumvent the problem and that are best suited to the complex-variable and the real-variable versions of the equation, respectively. Using those tools, an approximate solution accurate to 1.75 × 10 -10 and valid for the entire positive real axis is then developed by matching a Padé approximant of the exact series and an asymptotic solution (to overcome the restriction imposed by the finite radius of convergence of the series), along the same lines of the expression proposed by Hogarth and Parlange [1999]. The accuracies of all of the existing and the newly proposed solutions are obtained.

Description: Field sampling in unwadeable and flashy flood events encounters the problem that lateral variability of flow hydraulics and sediment transport cannot be captured adequately, and there is also an accuracy problem because parameters change while being measured. Moreover, event based gravel-sand mixed transport data in rapidly changing conditions are largely missing, in particular for gravel-bed rivers in small catchments. In this study, field measurements of bed load, suspended load, flow velocities, water depths and cross section geometry were collected during flood events at a monitoring station near the mouth of the Versilia river, Italy. Since the observed hydrographs are characterized by short durations, to the order of a few hours, an analysis of the lateral and temporal flow variability was carried out to enable the design of a sampling strategy and to minimize the errors created by the time variations of discharge associated with unsteady flow conditions. The measurements were interpreted using a 1D hydro-morphodynamic numerical model simulating the dynamics of flow and sediment discharges during a flood event for a given return period. The flow and sediment rating curves were then developed through an integrated approach combining different methodologies: field measurements, laboratory analyses and mathematical modeling. The developed approach allows one to capture the main physical mechanisms associated to the transport of sand–gravel mixtures, such as selective transport, and the hysteretic behaviour of sediment transport produced by rapid and intense flood events.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Efforts to test and improve terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) using a variety of data sources have become increasingly common. However, geographically extensive forest inventories have been under-exploited in previous model-data fusion efforts. Inventory observations of forest growth, mortality, and biomass integrate processes across a range of time scales, including slow time-scale processes such as species turnover, that are likely to have important effects on ecosystem responses to environmental variation. However, the large number (thousands) of inventory plots precludes detailed measurements at each location, so that uncertainty in climate, soil properties, and other environmental drivers may be large. Errors in driver variables, if ignored, introduce bias into model-data fusion. We estimated errors in climate and soil drivers at U.S. Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots, and we explored the effects of these errors on model-data fusion with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory LM3V dynamic global vegetation model. When driver errors were ignored or assumed small at FIA plots, responses of biomass production in LM3V to precipitation and soil available water capacity appeared steeper than the corresponding responses estimated from FIA data. These differences became non-significant if driver errors at FIA plots were assumed large. Ignoring driver errors when optimizing LM3V parameter values yielded estimates for fine-root allocation that were larger than biometric estimates, which is consistent with the expected direction of bias. To explore if complications posed by driver errors could be circumvented by relying on intensive study sites where driver errors are small, we performed a power analysis. To accurately quantify the response of biomass production to spatial variation in mean annual precipitation within the eastern U.S. would require at least 40 intensive study sites, which is larger than the number of sites typically available for individual biomes in existing plot networks. Driver errors may be accommodated by several existing model-data fusion approaches, including hierarchical Bayesian methods and ensemble filtering methods; however, these methods are computationally expensive. We propose a new approach, in which the TBM functional response is fit directly to the driver-error-corrected functional response estimated from data, rather than to the raw observations.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Much of our understanding of natural forest dynamics in the temperate region of Europe is based on observational studies in old-growth remnants that have emphasized small-scale gap dynamics and equilibrium stand structure and composition. Relatively little attention has been given to the role of infrequent disturbance events in forest dynamics. In this study, we analyzed dendroecological data from four stands and three windthrow patches in an old-growth landscape in the Dinaric Mountains of Bosnia and Herzegovina to examine disturbance history, tree life history traits, and compositional dynamics. Over all stands, most decades during the past 340 years experienced less than 10% canopy loss, yet each stand showed evidence of periodic intermediate severity disturbances that removed 〉 40% of the canopy, some of which were synchronized over the study area landscape. Analysis of radial growth patterns indicated several life history differences among the dominant canopy trees; beech was markedly older than fir, while growth patterns of dead and dying trees suggested fir was able to tolerate longer periods of suppressed growth in shade. Maple had the fastest radial growth and accessed the canopy primarily through rapid early growth in canopy gaps, whereas most beech and fir experienced a period of suppressed growth prior to canopy accession. Peaks in disturbance were roughly linked to increased recruitment, but mainly of shade tolerant beech and fir; less tolerant species (i.e. maple, ash, and elm) recruited successfully on some of the windthown sites where advance regeneration of beech and fir was less abundant. The results challenge the traditional notions of stability in temperate old-growth of Europe and highlight the non-equilibrial nature of canopy composition due to unique histories of disturbance and tree life history differences. These findings provide valuable information for developing natural disturbance-based silvicultural systems, as well as insight into maintaining less shade tolerant, but valuable broadleaved trees in temperate forests of Europe.

Description: ABSTRACT A study was performed to characterize over land precipitation associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) for basins around the world based upon the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS). From 1998 to 2009, data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) product 3B42, showed that TCs accounted for 5.5%, 7.5%, 6%, 9.5%, and 8.9% of the annual precipitation for impacted over land areas of the Americas, East Asia, South and West Asia, Oceania, and East Africa respectively, and that TC contribution decreased significantly within the first 150-km from the coast. Locally, TCs contributed on average to more than 25% and up to 61% of the annual precipitation budget over very different climatic areas with arid or tropical characteristics. East Asia represented the higher and most constant TC rain (118±19% mm y -1 ) normalized over the area impacted, while East Africa presented the highest variability (108±60% mm y -1 ), and the Americas displayed the lowest average TC rain (65±24% mm y -1 ) despite a higher TC activity. Furthermore, the maximum monthly TC contribution (8-11%) was found later in the TC season and depended on the peak of TC activity, TC rainfall, and the domain transition between dry and wet regimes if any. Finally, because of their importance in terms of rainfall amount, the contribution of TCs was provided for a selection of 50 urban areas experiencing cyclonic activity. Results showed that for particularly intense years, urban areas prone to cyclonic activity received more than half of their annual rainfall from TCs.

Description: A multivariate, multi-site daily weather generator is presented for use in decision-centric vulnerability assessments under climate change. The tool is envisioned useful for a wide range of socioeconomic and biophysical systems sensitive to different aspects of climate variability and change. The proposed stochastic model has several components, including 1) a wavelet decomposition coupled to an autoregressive model to account for structured, low-frequency climate oscillations, 2) a Markov Chain and k-nearest-neighbor (KNN) resampling scheme to simulate spatially-distributed, multivariate weather variables over a region, and 3) a quantile mapping procedure to enforce long-term distributional shifts in weather variables that result from prescribed climate changes. The Markov Chain is used to better represent wet and dry spell statistics while the KNN bootstrap resampler preserves the covariance structure between the weather variables and across space. The wavelet-based autoregressive model is applied to annual climate over the region and used to modulate the Markov Chain and KNN resampling, embedding appropriate low-frequency structure within the daily weather generation process. Parameters can be altered in any of the components of the proposed model to enable the generation of realistic time series of climate variables that exhibit changes to both lower-order and higher-order statistics at long-term (inter-annual), mid-term (seasonal), and short-term (daily) timescales. The tool can be coupled with impact models in a bottom-up risk assessment to efficiently and exhaustively explore the potential climate changes under which a system is most vulnerable. An application of the weather generator is presented for the Connecticut River basin to demonstrate the tool's ability to generate a wide range of possible climate sequences over an extensive spatial domain.

Description: The objective of the least cost design problem of a water distribution system is to find its minimum cost with discrete diameters as decision variables and hydraulic controls as constraints. The goal of a robust least cost design is to find solutions which guarantee its feasibility independent of the data (i.e., under model uncertainty). A robust counterpart approach for linear uncertain problems is adopted in this study, which represents the uncertain stochastic problem as its deterministic equivalent. Robustness is controlled by a single parameter providing a trade-off between the probability of constraint violation and the objective cost. Two principal models are developed-uncorrelated uncertainty model with implicit design reliability, and correlated uncertainty model with explicit design reliability. The models are tested on three example applications and compared for uncertainty in consumers’ demands. The main contribution of this study is the inclusion of the ability to explicitly account for different correlations between water distribution systems demand nodes. In particular it is shown that including correlation information in the design phase has a substantial advantage in seeking more efficient robust solutions.

Description: Moving from univariate to multivariate frequency analysis, this study extends the Klemeš' critique of the widespread belief that the increasingly refined mathematical structures of probability functions increase the accuracy and credibility of the extrapolated upper tails of the fitted distribution models. In particular, we discuss key aspects of multivariate frequency analysis applied to hydrological data such as the selection of multivariate design events (i.e., appropriate subsets or scenarios of multiplets that exhibit the same joint probability to be used in design applications) and the assessment of the corresponding uncertainty. Since these problems are often overlooked or treated separately, and sometimes confused, we attempt to clarify properties, advantages, shortcomings and reliability of results of frequency analysis. We suggest a selection method of multivariate design events with prescribed joint probability based on simple Monte Carlo simulations that accounts for the uncertainty affecting the inference results and the multivariate extreme quantiles. It is also shown that the exploration of the p -level probability regions of a joint distribution returns a set of events that is a subset of the p -level scenarios resulting from an appropriate assessment of the sampling uncertainty, thus tending to overlook more extreme and potentially dangerous events with the same (uncertain) joint probability. Moreover, a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty of multivariate quantiles is provided by introducing the concept of joint confidence intervals. From an operational point of view, the simulated event sets describing the distribution of the multivariate p -level quantiles can be used to perform multivariate risk analysis under sampling uncertainty. As an example of the practical implications of this study, we analyse two case studies already presented in the literature.

Description: Sparse geologic dictionaries provide a novel approach for subsurface flow model representation and calibration. Learning sparse dictionaries from prior training datasets is an effective approach to describe complex geologic connectivity patterns in subsurface imaging applications. However, the computational cost of sparse learning algorithms becomes prohibitive for large models. Performing the sparse dictionary learning process on smaller image patches (segments) provides a simple approach to address this problem in image processing applications. However, in underdetermined subsurface flow model calibration inverse problems, reconstruction of a segmented image can introduce significant structural distortion and discontinuity at the boundaries of the segments. This paper proposes an alternative sparse learning approach where the sparse dictionaries are learned from low-rank representations of the large-scale training dataset in spectral domains (e.g., frequency domain). The objective is to develop a computationally efficient dictionary learning approach that emphasizes large-scale spatial connectivity patterns. This is achieved by removing the strong spatial correlations in the training data, thereby eliminating a large number of insignificant components from the sparse learning computation. In addition to improving the computational complexity, sparse learning from low-rank training datasets suppresses the small-scale details from entering the reconstruction of large-scale connectivity patterns, and providing a regularization effect in solving the resulting ill-posed inverse problems. We apply the proposed approach to travel-time tomography inversion and nonlinear subsurface flow model calibration inverse problems to demonstrate its effectiveness and practicality.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 6, Page 1322-1330, September 2013. Cities produce considerable ecological light pollution (ELP), yet the effects of artificial night lighting on biological communities and ecosystem function have not been fully explored. From June 2010 to June 2011, we surveyed aquatic emergent insects, riparian arthropods entering the water, and riparian spiders of the family Tetragnathidae at nine stream reaches representing common ambient ELP levels of Columbus, Ohio, USA, streams (low, 0.1–0.5 lux; moderate, 0.6–2.0 lux; high, 2.1–4.0 lux). In August 2011, we experimentally increased light levels at the low- and moderate-treatment reaches to 10–12 lux to represent urban streams exposed to extremely high levels of ELP. Although season exerted the dominant influence on invertebrate fluxes over the course of the year, when analyzed by season, we found that light strongly influenced multiple invertebrate responses. The experimental light addition resulted in a 44% decrease in tetragnathid spider density (P = 0.035), decreases of 16% in family richness (P = 0.040) and 76% in mean body size (P = 0.022) of aquatic emergent insects, and a 309% increase in mean body size of terrestrial arthropods (P = 0.015). Our results provide evidence that artificial light sources can alter community structure and ecosystem function in streams via changes in reciprocal aquatic–terrestrial fluxes of invertebrates.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 6, Page 1357-1366, September 2013. Examining the causes of interspecific differences in susceptibility to bidirectional land-use changes (land abandonment and use-intensification) is important for understanding the mechanisms of global biodiversity loss in agricultural landscapes. We tested the hypothesis that rare (endangered) plant species prefer wet and oligotrophic areas within topography- and management-mediated resource (soil water content, nutrient, and aboveground biomass) gradients, making them more susceptible to both abandonment and use-intensification of agricultural lands. We demonstrated that topography and management practices generated resource gradients in seminatural grasslands around traditional paddy terraces. Terraced topography and management practices produced a soil moisture gradient within levees and a nutrient gradient within paddy terraces. Both total and rare species diversity increased with soil water content. Total species diversity increased in more eutrophied areas with low aboveground biomass, whereas rare species diversity was high under oligotrophic conditions. Rare and common species were differentially distributed along the human-induced nutrient gradient, with rare species preferring wet, nutrient-poor environments in the agricultural landscapes studied. We suggest that conservation efforts should concentrate on wet, nutrient-poor areas within such landscapes, which can be located easily using land-use and topography maps. This strategy would reduce the costs of finding and conserving rare grassland species in a given agricultural landscape.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 6, Page 1429-1442, September 2013. Carryover effects occur when experiences early in life affect an individual's performance at a later stage. Many studies have shown carryover effects to be important for future performance. However, it is currently unclear whether variation in later environments could overwhelm factors from an earlier life stage. We were interested in whether similar patterns would emerge under the same experimental design with similar taxa. To examine this, we implemented a four-way factorial experimental design with different forestry practices on three species of anurans (each examined in different years) in the aquatic larval environment and terrestrial juvenile environment in outdoor mesocosms in central Missouri, USA. Using Cormack-Jolly-Seber mark–recapture models implemented in program MARK, we investigated whether one environment or both environments best predicted terrestrial juvenile survival. We found only limited evidence of carryover effects for one of three species in one time period. These were the effects of time to metamorphosis and body condition at metamorphosis predicting leopard frog (Lithobates sphenocephalus) survival. However, both effects were counterintuitive and/or very weak. For wood frogs (L. sylvaticus), all of the variables predicting survival had confidence intervals that included zero, but very low survival may have limited our ability to estimate parameters. The terrestrial environment was important for predicting survival in both American toads (Anaxyrus americanus) and southern leopard frogs. The partial harvest forest tended to increase survival relative to control forest and early-successional forest in American toads. Alternately, early-successional forest with downed wood removed increased survival for leopard frogs, but this treatment was no different from control forest for American toads. Previous studies have shown negative effects of recent clearcuts on terrestrial amphibians. It appears that vegetative regrowth after just a few years can mitigate these initial negative effects. Our study shows that variation in later environments probably can overwhelm variation from earlier environments. However, previous evidence of carryover effects suggests that more research is needed to predict when carryover effects are likely to occur.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 6, Page 1475-1487, September 2013. Statistical indicators such as rising variance and rising skewness in key system parameters may provide early warning of “regime shifts” in communities and populations. However, the utility of these indicators has rarely been tested in the large, complex ecosystems that are of most interest to managers. Crustacean fisheries in the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea experienced a series of collapses beginning in the 1970s, and we used spatially resolved catch data from these fisheries to test the predictions that increasing variability and skewness would precede stock collapse. Our data set consisted of catch data from 14 fisheries (12 collapsing and two non-collapsing), spanning 278 cumulative years. Our sampling unit for analysis was the Alaska Department of Fish and Game statistical reporting area (mean n for individual fisheries = 42 areas, range 7–81). We found that spatial variability in catches increased prior to stock collapse: a random-effects model estimating trend in variability across all 12 collapsing fisheries showed strong evidence of increasing variability prior to collapse. Individual trends in variability were statistically significant for only four of the 12 collapsing fisheries, suggesting that rising variability might be most effective as an indicator when information from multiple populations is available. Analyzing data across multiple fisheries allowed us to detect increasing variability 1–4 years prior to collapse, and trends in variability were significantly different for collapsing and non-collapsing fisheries. In spite of theoretical expectations, we found no evidence of pre-collapse increases in catch skewness. Further, while models generally predict that rising variability should be a transient phenomenon around collapse points, increased variability was a persistent feature of collapsed fisheries in our study. We conclude that this result is more consistent with fishing effects as the cause of increased catch variability, rather than the critical slowing down that is the driver of increased variability in regime shift models. While our results support the use of rising spatial variability as a leading indicator of regime shifts, the failure of our data to support other model-derived predictions underscores the need for empirical validation before these indicators can be used with confidence by ecosystem managers.

Description: The conditions permitting mantle serpentinization during continental rifting are explored within 2D thermotectonostratigraphic basin models, which track the rheological evolution of the continental crust, account for sediment blanketing effects, and allow for kinetically controlled mantle serpentinization processes. The basic idea is that the entire extending continental crust has to be brittle for crustal scale faulting and mantle serpentinization to occur [ Perez-Gussinye and Reston , 2001]. The isostatic and latent heat effects of the reaction are fully coupled to the structural and thermal solutions. A systematic parameter study shows that a critical stretching factor exists for which complete crustal embrittlement and serpentinization occurs. Increased sedimentation rates shift this critical stretching factor to higher values as sediment blanketing effects result in higher crustal temperatures. Sediment supply has therefore, through the temperature-dependence of the viscous flow laws, strong control on crustal strength and mantle serpentinization reactions are only likely when sedimentation rates are low and stretching factors high. In a case study for the Norwegian margin we test whether the inner lower crustal bodies (LCB) imaged beneath the Møre and Vøring margin could be serpentinized mantle. Multiple 2D transects have been reconstructed through the 3D data set by Scheck-Wenderoth and Maystrenko [2011]. We find that serpentinization reactions are possible and likely during the Jurassic rift phase. Predicted thicknesses and locations of partially serpentinized mantle rocks fit to information on LCBs from seismic and gravity data. We conclude that some of the inner LCBs beneath the Norwegian margin may be partially serpentinized mantle.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Determining the range of a species and exploring species-habitat associations are central questions in ecology and can be answered by analyzing presence-absence data. Often, both the sampling of sites and the desired area of inference involve neighboring sites; thus positive spatial autocorrelation between these sites is expected. Using survey data for the Southern ground hornbill (Bucorvus leadbeateri) from the Southern African Bird Atlas Project, we compared advantages and disadvantages of three increasingly complex models for species occupancy: an occupancy model that accounted for nondetection but assumed all sites were independent, and two spatial occupancy models that accounted for both nondetection and spatial autocorrelation. We modeled the spatial autocorrelation with an intrinsic conditional autoregressive (ICAR) model and with a restricted spatial regression (RSR) model. Both spatial models can readily be applied to any other gridded, presence-absence data set using a newly introduced R package. The RSR model provided the best inference and was able to capture small-scale variation that the other models did not. It showed that ground hornbills are strongly dependent on protected areas in the north of their South African range but less so further south. The ICAR models did not capture any spatial autocorrelation in the data, and they took an order of magnitude longer than the RSR models to run. Thus, the RSR occupancy model appears to be an attractive choice for modeling occurrences at large spatial domains, while accounting for imperfect detection and spatial autocorrelation.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Our increasing dependence on a small number of agricultural crops such as corn is leading to reductions in agricultural biodiversity. Reductions in the number of crops in rotation or the replacement of rotations by monocultures are responsible for this loss of biodiversity. The belowground implications of simplifying agricultural plant communities remain unresolved; however, agroecosystem sustainability will be severely compromised if reductions in biodiversity reduce soil C and N concentrations, alter microbial communities, and degrade soil ecosystem functions as reported in natural communities. We conducted a meta-analysis of 122 studies to examine crop rotation effects on total soil C and N concentrations, and the faster cycling microbial biomass C and N pools that play key roles in soil nutrient cycling and physical processes such as aggregate formation. We specifically examined how rotation crop type and management practices influence C and N dynamics in different climates and soil types. We found that adding one or more crops in rotation to a monoculture increased total soil C by 3.6% and total N by 5.3%, but when rotations included a cover crop (i.e. crops that are not harvested but produced to enrich the soil and capture inorganic N), total C increased by 8.5% and total N 12.8%. Rotations substantially increased the soil microbial biomass C (20.7%) and N (26.1%) pools, and these overwhelming effects on microbial biomass were not moderated by crop type or management practices. Crop rotations, especially those that include cover crops, sustain soil quality and productivity by enhancing soil C, N and microbial biomass, making them a cornerstone for sustainable agroecosystems.

Description: A new hybrid wavelet–bootstrap–neural network (WBNN) model is proposed in this study for short term (1, 3 and 5 day; 1 and 2 week; and 1 and 2 month) urban water demand forecasting. The new method was tested using data from the city of Montreal in Canada. The performance of the WBNN method was compared with the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous input variables (ARIMAX), traditional NNs, wavelet analysis based NNs (WNN), bootstrap based NNs (BNN), and a simple naïve persistence index model. The WBNN model was developed as an ensemble of several NNs built using bootstrap resamples of wavelet sub-time series instead of raw datasets. The results demonstrated that the hybrid WBNN and WNN models produced significantly more accurate forecasting results than the traditional NN, BNN, ARIMA and ARIMAX models. It was also found that the WBNN model reduces the uncertainty associated with the forecasts, and the performance of WBNN forecasted confidence bands were found to be more accurate and reliable than BNN forecasted confidence bands. It was found in this study that maximum temperature and total precipitation improved the accuracy of water demand forecasts using wavelet analysis. The performance of WBNN models was also compared for different numbers of bootstrap resamples (i.e., 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500) and it was found that WBNN models produced optimum results with different numbers of bootstrap resamples for different lead time forecasts with considerable variability.

Description: ABSTRACT Although mechanistic reaction networks have been developed to quantify the biogeochemical evolution of subsurface systems associated with bioremediation, it is difficult in practice to quantify the onset and distribution of these transitions at the field scale using commonly collected wellbore datasets. As an alternative approach to the mechanistic methods, we develop a data-driven, statistical model to identify biogeochemical transitions using various time-lapse aqueous geochemical data (e.g., Fe(II), sulfate, sulfide, acetate, and uranium concentrations) and induced polarization (IP) data. We assume that the biogeochemical transitions can be classified as several dominant states that correspond to redox transitions and test the method at a uranium-contaminated site. The relationships between the geophysical observations and geochemical time-series vary depending upon the unknown underlying redox status, which is modeled as a hidden Markov random field. We estimate unknown parameters by maximizing the joint likelihood function using the maximization-expectation algorithm. The case study results show that when considered together aqueous geochemical data and IP imaginary conductivity provide a key diagnostic signature of biogeochemical stages. The developed method provides useful information for evaluating the effectiveness of bioremediation, such as the probability of being in specific redox stages following biostimulation where desirable pathways (e.g., uranium removal) are more highly favored. The use of geophysical data in the approach advances the possibility of using non-invasive methods to monitor critical biogeochemical system stages and transitions remotely and over field relevant scales (e.g., from square meters to several hectares).

Description: In recent years, a number of numerical modelling studies of transient sea-level rise (SLR) and seawater intrusion (SWI) in flux-controlled systems have reported an overshoot phenomenon, whereby the freshwater-saltwater interface temporarily extends further inland than the eventual steady-state position. In this study, we have carried out physical sand tank modelling of SLR-SWI in a flux-controlled unconfined aquifer setting to test if SWI overshoot is a measurable physical process. Photographs of the physical SLR experiments show, for the first time, that an overshoot occurs under controlled laboratory conditions. A sea-level drop (SLD) experiment was also carried out, and overshoot was again observed, whereby the interface was temporarily closer to the coast than the eventual steady-state position. This shows that an overshoot can occur for the case of a retreating interface. Numerical modelling corroborated the physical SLR and SLD experiments. The magnitude of the overshoot for SLR and SLD in the physical experiments was 24% of the change in steady-state interface position, albeit the laboratory setting is designed to maximise overshoot extent by adopting high groundwater flow gradients and large and rapid sea-level changes. While the likelihood of overshoot at the field scale appears to be low, this work has shown that it can be observed under controlled laboratory conditions.

Description: A new analytical solution of the flow equation has been developed to estimate the time to reach a near-equilibrium state in mixed aquifers, i.e. having unconfined and confined portions, following a large hydraulic perturbation. Near-equilibrium is defined as the time for an initial aquifer perturbation to dissipate by an average 95% across the aquifer.The new solution has been obtained by solving the flow system of a simplified conceptual model of a mixed aquifer using Laplace transforms. The conceptual model is based on two assumptions: 1) the groundwater flow can be reduced to a horizontal 1D problem; and 2) the transmissivity, a function of the saturated thickness, is assumed constant on the unconfined portion. This new solution depends on the storativity of the unconfined portion, the lengths of the unconfined and confined portions and the transmissivity, assumed to be constant and equal in both portions of the mixed aquifer. This solution was then tested and validated against a numerical flow model, where the variations of the saturated thickness and therefore variations of the transmissivity were either ignored, or properly modeled. The agreement between the results from the new solution and those from the numerical model is good, validating the use of this new solution to estimate the time to reach near-equilibrium in mixed aquifers. This solution for mixed aquifers, as well as the solutions for a fully confined or fully unconfined aquifer, have been used to estimate the time to reach near-equilibrium in thirteen large aquifers in the world. For those different aquifers, the time to reach near-equilibrium ranges between 0.7 ky to 2.4x10 7 ky. These results suggest that the present hydraulic heads in these aquifers are typically a mixture of responses induced from current and past hydrologic conditions and thus climate conditions. For some aquifers, the modern hydraulic heads may in fact depend upon hydrologic conditions resulting from several past climate cycles.

Description: The impact of contact angle on 2D spatial and temporal water content distribution during infiltration and drainage was experimentally studied. The 0.3-0.5 mm fraction of a quartz dune sand was treated and turned sub-critically repellent (contact angle of 33 0 , 48 0 , 56 0 , and 75 0 for S33, S48, S56, and S75, respectively). The media were packed uniformly in transparent flow chambers and water was supplied to the surface as a point source at different rates (1 to 20 ml/min). A sequence of grey-value images was taken by CCD camera during infiltration and subsequent drainage; grey values were converted to volumetric water content by water volume balance. Narrow and long plumes with water accumulation behind the downward moving wetting front (tip) and negative water gradient above it (tail) developed in the S56 and S75 media during infiltration at lower water application rates. The plumes became bulbous with spatially uniform water content distribution as water application rates increased. All plumes in these media propagated downward at a constant rate during infiltration and were frozen during drainage. In contrast, regular plume shapes were observed in the S33 and S48 media at all flow rates, and drainage profiles were non-monotonic with a transition plane at the depth that water reached during infiltration. Given that the studied media have similar pore-size distributions, the conclusion is that imbibition hindered by the non-zero contact angle induced pressure buildup at the wetting front (dynamic water entry value) that controlled the plume shape and internal water-content distribution during infiltration and drainage.

Description: Estimation of design quantiles of hydro-meteorological variables at critical locations in river basins is necessary for hydrological applications. To arrive at reliable estimates for locations (sites) where no or limited records are available, various regional frequency analysis (RFA) procedures have been developed over the past five decades. The most widely used procedure is based on Index-flood approach and L -moments. It assumes that values of scale and shape parameters of frequency distribution are identical across all the sites in a homogeneous region. In real world scenario, this assumption may not be valid even if a region is statistically homogeneous. To address this issue, a novel mathematical approach is proposed. It involves (i) identification of an appropriate frequency distribution to fit the random variable being analyzed for homogeneous region, (ii) use of a proposed transformation mechanism to map observations of the variable from original space to a dimensionless space where the form of distribution does not change, and variation in values of its parameters is minimal across sites, (iii) construction of a growth curve in the dimensionless space, and (iv) mapping the curve to the original space for the target site by applying inverse transformation to arrive at required quantile(s) for the site. Effectiveness of the proposed approach in predicting quantiles for ungauged sites is demonstrated through Monte-Carlo simulation experiments considering five frequency distributions that are widely used in RFA, and by case study on watersheds in conterminous United States. Results indicate that the proposed approach outperforms methods based on index-flood approach.

Description: Prediction of microbial surface water contamination is a formidable task because of the inherent randomness of environmental processes driving microbial fate and transport. In this article we develop a theoretical framework of a fully stochastic model of microbial transport in watersheds, and apply the theory to a simple flow network to demonstrate its use. The framework bridges the gap between microscopic behavior of individual microorganisms and macroscopic ensemble dynamics. This scaling is accomplished within a single mathematical framework, where each microorganism behaves according to a continuous-time discrete-space Markov process, and the Markov behavior of individual microbes gives rise to a non-homogeneous Poisson random field that describes microbial population dynamics. Mean value functions are derived, and the spatial and temporal distribution of water contamination risk is computed in a straightforward manner.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Tropical forests play a vital role in the global carbon cycle, but the amount of carbon they contain and its spatial distribution remain uncertain. Recent studies suggest that once tree height is accounted for in biomass calculations, in addition to diameter and wood density, carbon stock estimates are reduced in many areas. However, it is possible that larger crown sizes might offset the reduction in biomass estimates in some forests where tree heights are lower because even comparatively short trees develop large, well-lit crowns in or above the forest canopy. While current allometric models and theory focus on diameter, wood density, and height, the influence of crown size and structure has not been well studied. To test the extent to which accounting for crown parameters can improve biomass estimates, we harvested and weighed 51 trees (11-169 cm diameter) in southwestern Amazonia where no direct biomass measurements have been made. The trees in our study had nearly half of total aboveground biomass in the branches (44 ± 2 %), demonstrating the importance of accounting for tree crowns. Consistent with our predictions, key pantropical equations that include height, but do not account for crown dimensions, underestimated the sum total biomass of all 51 trees by 11 to 14 %, primarily due to severe underestimates of many of the largest trees. In our models, including crown radius greatly improves performance and reduces error, especially for the largest trees. In addition, over the full dataset, crown radius marginally explained more variation in aboveground biomass (10.5 %) than height (6.0 %). Crown form is also important: trees with a monopodial architectural type are estimated to have 21-44 % less mass than trees with other growth patterns. Our analysis suggests that accounting for crown allometry would substantially improve the accuracy of tropical estimates of tree biomass and its distribution in primary and degraded forests.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Tropical forests are important storehouses of carbon and biodiversity. In isolated island ecosystems such as the Hawaiian Islands, relative dominance of native and non-native tree species may influence patterns of forest carbon stocks and biodiversity. We determined aboveground carbon density (ACD) across a matrix of lava flows differing in age, texture and vegetation composition (i.e., native or non-native dominated) in wet lowland forests of Hawaii Island. To do this at the large scales necessary to accurately capture the inherent heterogeneity of these forests, we collected LiDAR data across areas of interest and developed relationships between LiDAR metrics and field-based estimates of forest ACD. This approach enabled us to inventory, rather than merely sample, the entire populations (i.e., forests) of interest. Native Hawaiian wet lowland forests exhibited ACD values similar to those of intact tropical forests elsewhere. In general, ACD of these forests increased with increasing lava flow age, but patterns differed between native and non-native forest stands. On the youngest lavas, native-dominated forest ACD averaged 〈 60 Mg ha-1 compared to ca. 100 Mg C ha-1 for non-native dominated forests. This difference was due to the presence of the non-native, N2-fixing trees, F. moluccana and C. equisetifolia in the non-native dominated forest stands, as well as the corresponding absence of N2-fixing trees in native-dominated forest stands. Following approximately 500 years of primary succession and thereafter, however, both forest types exhibited ACD values averaging ca. 130 Mg C ha-1, although it took non-native forests only 75 to 80 years of post-establishment succession to reach those values. Given the large areas of early successional M. polymorpha-dominated forest on young lava flows, further spread of F. moluccana and C. equisetifolia populations would likely increase ACD stocks but would constitute a significant erosion of the invaluable contribution of Hawaii's native ecosystems to global biodiversity.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Despite the importance of fire and herbivory in structuring savanna systems, few replicated experiments have examined the interactive effects of herbivory and fire on plant dynamics. In addition, the effects of fire on associated ant-tree mutualisms have been largely unexplored. We carried out small controlled burns in each of 18 herbivore treatment plots of the Kenya Long-term Exclosure Experiment (KLEE), where experimentally excluding elephants has resulting in 42% greater tree densities. The KLEE design includes six different herbivore treatments that allowed us to examine how different combinations of megaherbivore wildlife, mesoherbivore wildlife, and cattle affect fire temperatures and subsequent loss of ant symbionts from Acacia trees. Before burning, we quantified herbaceous fuel loads and plant community composition. We tagged all trees, measured their height and basal diameter, and identified the resident ant species on each. We recorded weather conditions during the burns and used ceramic tiles painted with fire-sensitive paints to estimate fire temperatures at different heights and in different microsites (under versus between trees). Across all treatments, fire temperatures were highest at 0-50cm off the ground and hotter in the grass under trees than in the grassy areas between trees. Plots with more trees burned hotter than plots with fewer trees, perhaps because of greater fine woody debris. Plots grazed by wildlife and by cattle prior to burning had lower herbaceous fuel loads and experienced lower burn temperatures than ungrazed plots. Many trees lost their ant colonies during the burns. Ant survivorship differed by ant species, and at the plot level was positively associated with previous herbivory (and lower fire temperatures). Across all treatments, ant colonies on taller trees were more likely to survive, but even some of the tallest trees lost their ant colonies. Our study marks a significant step in understanding the mechanisms that underlie the interactions between fire and herbivory in savanna ecosystems.

Description: The origin of the Bermuda swell and volcanism remains enigmatic. The lack of an associated time-progressive hotspot track and absence of present-day volcanic activity make it difficult to reconcile with a deep mantle plume model. We analyze shear wave splitting measurements to estimate mantle flow direction and receiver function stacks to place constraints on the mantle transition zone thermal structure. *KS phases exhibit well-resolved null arrivals (no splitting) beneath the swell over a range of back azimuths. We find that the 410 and 660 km discontinuities are 49 ± 5 km and 19 ± 5 km deeper than the global average, respectively, leading to a transition zone thickness that is 27 ± 4 km thinner than average. Together, an apparently isotropic upper mantle and a thinned mantle transition zone suggest that mantle flow is primarily vertical beneath the swell, consistent with the presence of hot, buoyant mantle at depth.

Description: The anomalously snowy winter season of 2010/11 in the Sierra Nevada is analyzed in terms of snow water equivalent (SWE) anomalies and the role of atmospheric rivers (ARs)―narrow channels of enhanced meridional water vapor transport between the tropics and extratropics. Mean April 1 SWE was 0.44 m (56%) above normal averaged over 100 snow sensors. AR occurrence was anomalously high during the period, with 20 AR dates during the season and 14 in the month of December 2010, compared to the mean occurrence of 9 dates per season. Fifteen out of the 20 AR dates were associated with the negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern. Analysis of all winter ARs in California during water years 1998–2011 indicates more ARs occur during the negative phase of AO and PNA, with the increase between positive and negative phases being ˜90% for AO, and ˜50% for PNA. The circulation pattern associated with concurrent negative phases of AO and PNA, characterized by cyclonic anomalies centered northwest of California, provides a favorable dynamical condition for ARs. The analysis suggests that the massive Sierra Nevada snowpack during the 2010/11 winter season is primarily related to anomalously high frequency of ARs favored by the joint phasing of −AO and −PNA, and that a secondary contribution is from increased snow accumulation during these ARs favored by colder air temperatures associated with −AO, −PNA and La Niña.

Description: The baseflow recession constant, K b , is used to characterize the interaction of groundwater and surface water systems. Estimation of K b is critical in many studies including rainfall-runoff modeling, estimation of low flow statistics at ungaged locations and baseflow separation methods. The performance of several estimators of K b are compared, including several new approaches which account for the impact of human withdrawals. A traditional semi-log estimation approach adapted to incorporate the influence of human withdrawals was preferred over other derivative-based estimators. Human withdrawals are shown to have a significant impact on the estimation of baseflow recessions, even when withdrawals are relatively small. Regional regression models are developed to relate seasonal estimates of K b to physical, climatic, and anthropogenic characteristics of stream-aquifer systems. Among the factors considered for explaining the behavior of K b , both drainage density and human withdrawals have significant and similar explanatory power. We document the importance of incorporating human withdrawals into models of the baseflow recession response of a watershed and the systemic downward bias associated with estimates of K b obtained without consideration of human withdrawals.

Description: There are significant uncertainties inherent in precipitation forecasts and these uncertainties can be communicated to users via large ensembles that are generated using stochastic models of forecast error. The Met Office and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology developed the Short Term Ensemble Prediction System (STEPS) which has been operational for a number of years. The initial formulation of Bowler et al. [2006] has been revised and extended to improve the performance over large domains, to include radar observation errors, and to facilitate the combination of forecasts from a number of sources. This paper reviews the formulation of STEPS, discusses those aspects of the formulation that have proved most problematic and presents some solutions. The performance of STEPS nowcasts is evaluated using a combination of case study examples and statistical verification from the UK. Routine forecast verification demonstrates that STEPS is capable of producing near optimal blends of a rainfall nowcast and high resolution NWP forecast. It also shows that the spread of STEPS nowcast ensembles are a good predictor of the error in the control member (unperturbed) nowcast.

Description: In this study seasonal and interannual variability of the main atmospheric moisture sources over eight regions in the Mediterranean basin were investigated along a twenty one year period. The Lagrangian dispersion model FLEXPART, developed by Stohl and James [2004, 2005], was applied to identify the contribution of humidity to the moisture budget of each region. This methodology is used to compute budgets of evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) by calculating changes in the specific humidity along backward trajectories, for the preceding ten-day periods. The results show clear seasonal differences in the moisture sources between wet and dry seasons. The Western Mediterranean Sea is the dominant moisture source for almost all the regions in the Mediterranean basin during the wet season, while the local net evaporation dominates during the dry season. The highest interannual variability is found in contributions to the Iberian Peninsula, Italy and the Eastern Mediterranean. It is seen that the role of teleconnections is more limited than for the precipitation recorded in the region.

Description: We present a new hydrologic model based on the frequency distribution of hillslope landscape elements along the stream network as a basis for simulating landscape-scale hydrologic connectivity and catchment runoff. Hydrologic connectivity describes shallow water table continuity between upland and stream elements of the catchment and is important for the movement of water and solutes to streams. This concept has gained traction in physical hydrology but has received less attention in rainfall-runoff modeling. Our model is based on the empirical studies of Jencso et al. [2009; 2010], who found a strong correlation between the duration of shallow groundwater connectivity across hillslope, riparian, and stream zones and upslope accumulated area. We explored the relationship between catchment form and function by testing the extent to which streamflow generation could be predicted by a model based on the topographic form (distribution of landscape elements) of the catchment. We applied the model to the Stringer Creek catchment of the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest, located in Montana, USA. Detailed field observations collected by Jencso et al. [2009] were used to inform the underpinnings of the model and to corroborate internal consistency of the model simulations. The model demonstrated good agreement between the observed and predicted streamflow and connectivity duration curves. The ability of this model to simulate internal dynamics without conditioning the parameters on these data suggests that it has the potential to be more confidently extrapolated to other shallow, topographically driven catchments than hydrologic models that fail to consistently reproduce internal variables.

Description: Knowledge of hydrological model complexity can aid selection of an optimal prediction model out of a set of available models. Optimal model selection is formalized as selection of the least complex model out of a subset of models that have lower empirical risk. This may be considered equivalent to minimizing an upper bound on prediction error, defined here as the mathematical expectation of empirical risk. In this paper we derive an upper bound that is free from assumptions on data and underlying process distribution as well as on independence of model predictions over time. We demonstrate that hydrological model complexity, as defined in the presented theoretical framework, plays an important role in determining the upper bound. The model complexity also acts as a stabilizer to a hydrological model selection problem if it is deemed ill-posed. We provide an algorithm for computing complexity of any arbitrary hydrological model. We also demonstrate that hydrological model complexity has a geometric interpretation as the size of model output space. The presented theory is applied to quantify complexities of two hydrological model structures: SAC-SMA and SIXPAR. It detects that SAC-SMA is indeed more complex than SIXPAR. We also develop an algorithm to estimate the upper bound on prediction error, which is applied on 5 different rainfall-runoff model structures that vary in complexity. We show that a model selection problem is stabilized by regularizing it with model complexity. Complexity regularized model selection yields models that are robust in predicting future but yet unseen data.

Description: The temporal dynamics and spatial distribution of the concentrations of dissolved gases (He, Ar, Kr, N 2 , O 2 and CO 2 ) in an infiltrating groundwater system fed by the peri-alpine River Thur (Switzerland) were analysed before, during and after a single, well-defined flood event. The analysis was based on measurements taken in five different groundwater observation wells that were located approximately 10 m apart and tapped the same groundwater body, but were situated in three different riparian zones. The input of O 2 into the groundwater as a result of the formation of excess air was found to be of the same order of magnitude as that resulting from the advection of river water, although the amount of excess air formed and the amount of O 2 delivered varied significantly among the riparian zones. The results suggest that the input of O 2 into groundwater as a result of excess air formation is controlled not only by the hydraulic conditions prevailing in the river and the groundwater, but also by the thickness of the confining bed at the top of the aquifer. The sandy gravel aquifer itself is too coarse to trap a significant amount of air during the water level rise. The clay layer confining the aquifer, however, acts as a barrier hindering the escape of air from the subsoil to the surface, and hence is likely to be a key factor controlling the trapping and dissolution of air in groundwater.

Description: Estimation of parameter values in hydrological models has gradually moved from subjective, trial-and-error methods into objective estimation methods. Translation of nature's complexity to bit operations is an uncertain process as a result of data errors, epistemic gaps, computational deficiencies, and other limitations, and relies on calibration to fit model output to observed data. The robustness of the calibrated parameter values to these types of uncertainties is therefore an important concern. In this study, we investigated how the hydrological robustness of the model-parameter values varied within the geometric structure of the behavioral (well-performing) parameter space with a depth function based on α shapes and an in-depth posterior performance analysis of the simulations in relation to the observed discharge uncertainty. The α shape depth is a non-convex measure that may provide an accurate and tight delimitation of the geometric structure of the behavioral space for both uni- and multimodal parameter-value distributions. WASMOD, a parsimonious rainfall-runoff model, was applied to six Honduran and one UK catchment, with differing data quality and hydrological characteristics. Model evaluation was done with two performance measures, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and one based on flow-duration curves. Deep parameter vectors were in general found to be more hydrologically robust than shallow ones in the analyses we performed; model-performance values increased with depth, deviations to the observed data for the high-flow aspects of the hydrograph generally decreased with increasing depth, deep parameter vectors generally transferred in time with maintained high performance values, and the model had a low sensitivity to small changes in the parameter values. The tight delimitation of the behavioral space provided by the α shapes depth function showed a potential to improve the efficiency of calibration techniques that require further exploration. For computational reasons only a three-parameter model could be used, which limited the applicability of this depth measure and the conclusions drawn in this paper, especially concerning hydrological robustness at low flows.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 7, Page 1531-1543, October 2013. While the area of organic crop production increases at a global scale, the potential interactions between pest management in organic and conventionally managed systems have so far received little attention. Here, we evaluate the landscape-level co-dependence of insecticide-based and natural enemy-based pest management using a simulation model for parasitoid–host interactions in landscapes consisting of conventionally and organically managed fields. In our simulations conventional management consists of broad-spectrum or selective insecticide application, while organic management involves no insecticides. Simulations indicate that insecticide use can easily result in lose–lose scenarios whereby both organically and conventionally managed fields suffer from increased pest loads as compared to a scenario where no insecticides are used, but that under some conditions insecticide use can be compatible with biocontrol. Simulations also suggest that the pathway to achieve the insecticide reduction without triggering additional pest pressure is not straightforward, because increasing the proportion of organically managed fields or reducing the spray frequency in conventional fields can potentially give rise to dramatic increases in pest load. The disruptive effect of insecticide use, however, can be mitigated by spatially clustering organic fields and using selective insecticides, although the effectiveness of this mitigation depends on the behavioral traits of the biocontrol agents. Poorly dispersing parasitoids and parasitoids with high attack rates required a lower amount of organically managed fields for effective pest suppression. Our findings show that the transition from a landscape dominated by conventionally managed crops to organic management has potential pitfalls; intermediate levels of organic management may lead to higher pest burdens than either low or high adoption of organic management.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 7, Page 1603-1618, October 2013. The regional spatial scale is a vital linkage for the informed extrapolation of results from local to continental scales to address broad-scale environmental problems. Among-region variation in ecosystem state is commonly accounted for by using a regionalization framework, such as an ecoregion classification. Rarely have alternative regionalization frameworks been tested for variables measuring ecosystem state, nor have the underlying relationships with the variables that are used to define them been assessed. In this study, we asked two questions: (1) How much among-region variation is there for ecosystems and does it differ by regionalization framework? (2) What are the likely causes of this among-region variation? We present a case study using a large data set of lake water chemistry, uni- and multi-scaled hydrogeomorphic and anthropogenic driver variables that likely influence lake chemistry at the subcontinental scale, and seven existing regionalization frameworks. We used multilevel models to quantify and explain within- and among-region variation in lake water chemistry. Our models account for local driver variables of ecosystem variation within regions, differences in regional mean ecosystem state (i.e., random intercepts in multilevel models), and differences in relationships between local drivers and ecosystem state by region (i.e., random slopes in multilevel models). Using one of the best performing regionalization frameworks (Ecological Drainage Units), we found that for lake phosphorus and alkalinity: (1) a majority of all the variation in water chemistry among the studied lakes occurred among regions, (2) very few regional-scale landscape driver variables were required to explain among-region variation in lake water chemistry, (3) a much higher proportion of the total variation among lakes was explained at the regional scale than at the local scale, and (4) some relationships between local-scale driver variables and lake water chemistry varied by region. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering the regional spatial scale for broad-scale research and ecosystem management and conservation. Our quantitative approach can be easily applied to other response variables, ecosystem types, geographic areas, and spatial extents to inform ecosystem responses to global environmental stressors.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 7, Page 1544-1553, October 2013. Invasive species are costly and difficult to control. In order to gain a mechanistic understanding of potential control measures, individual-based models uniquely parameterized to reflect the salient life-history characteristics of invasive species are useful. Using invasive Australian Rhinella marina as a case study, we constructed a cohort- and individual-based population simulation that incorporates growth and body size of terrestrial stages. We used this allometric approach to examine the efficacy of nontraditional control methods (i.e., tadpole alarm chemicals and native meat ants) that may have indirect effects on population dynamics mediated by effects on body size. We compared population estimates resulting from these control methods with traditional hand removal. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis to investigate the effect that model parameters, specifically those associated with growth and body size, had on adult population estimates. Incremental increases in hand removal of adults and juveniles caused nonlinear decreases in adult population estimates, suggesting less return with increased investment in hand-removal efforts. Applying tadpole alarm chemicals or meat ants decreased adult population estimates on the same level as removing 15–25% of adults and juveniles by hand. The combined application of tadpole alarm chemicals and meat ants resulted in ∼80% decrease in adult abundance, the largest of any applied control method. In further support of the nontraditional control methods, which greatly affected the metamorph stage, our model was most sensitive to changes in metamorph survival, juvenile survival, metamorph growth rate, and adult survival. Our results highlight the use and insights that can be gained from individual-based models that incorporate growth and body size and the potential success that nontraditional control methods could have in controlling established, invasive Rhinella marina populations.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 7, Page 1659-1676, October 2013. This paper proposes a hierarchical Bayesian framework for modeling the life cycle of marine exploited fish with a spatial perspective. The application was developed for a nursery-dependent fish species, the common sole (Solea solea), on the Eastern Channel population (Western Europe). The approach combined processes of different natures and various sources of observations within an integrated framework for life-cycle modeling: (1) outputs of an individual-based model for larval drift and survival that provided yearly estimates of the dispersion and mortality of eggs and larvae, from spawning grounds to settlement in several coastal nurseries; (2) a habitat suitability model, based on juvenile trawl surveys coupled with a geographic information system, to estimate juvenile densities and surface areas of suitable juvenile habitat in each nursery sector; (3) a statistical catch-at-age model for the estimation of the numbers-at-age and the fishing mortality on subadults and adults. The approach provided estimates of hidden variables and parameters of key biological significance. A simulation approach provided insight to the robustness of the approach when only weak data are available. Estimates of spawning biomass, fishing mortality, and recruitment were close to the estimations derived from stock-assessment working groups. In addition, the model quantified mortality along the life cycle, and estimated site-specific density-dependent mortalities between settled larvae and age-0 juveniles in each nursery ground. This provided a better understanding of the productivity and the specific contribution of each nursery ground toward recruitment and population renewal. Perspectives include further development of the modeling framework on the common sole and applications to other fish species to disentangle the effects of multiple interacting stress factors (e.g., estuarine and coastal nursery habitat degradation, fishing pressure) on population renewal and to develop risk analysis in the context of marine spatial planning for sustainable management of fish resources.

Description: We present an improved density model and a new structural map of the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff caldera, the active portion of the nested Campi Flegrei caldera. The model was built using a new 3D inversion of the available high-precision gravity data, and a new digital terrain and marine model. The inversion procedure, based on a variable-depth lumped assembling of the subsurface gravity distribution via cell aggregation, gives better defined insights into the internal caldera architecture, that well agree with the available geological, geophysical and geochemical data. The adopted 3D gravity method is highly efficient for characterizing the shallow caldera structure (down to 3 km depth) and defining features related to regional or volcano tectonic lineaments and dynamics. In particular, the resulting density distribution highlights a pronounced density low in correspondence of the central portion of the caldera with a detail not available till now. The joint interpretation of the available data, suggests a subsurface structural setting that supports a piecemeal collapse of the caldera, and allows the identification of its headwall. Positive gravity anomalies localize dense intrusions (presently covered by late volcanic deposits) along the caldera marginal faults, and the main structural lineaments both bordering the resurgent block and cutting the caldera floor. These results allow us to both refine the current geological-structural framework and propose a new structural map that highlights the caldera boundary and its internal setting. This map is useful to interpret the phenomena occurring during unrest, and to improve both short- and long-term volcanic hazards assessment.

Description: Catastrophic collapses of submarine volcanoes have the potential to generate major tsunami, threatening many coastal populations. Recognizing the difficulties surrounding anticipations of these events, quantitative assessment of collapse-prone regions based on detailed morphological, geological and geophysical mapping can still provide important information about the hazards associated with these collapses. Rumble III is one of the shallowest, and largest, submarine volcanoes found along the Kermadec arc, and is both volcanically and hydrothermally active. Previous surveys have delineated major collapse features at Rumble III; based on time-lapse bathymetry, dramatic changes in the volcano morphology have been shown to have occurred over the interval 2007 to 2009. Furthermore, this volcano is located just ˜300 km from the east coast of the North Island of New Zealand. Here, we present a geophysical model for Rumble III, that provides the locations and sizes of potential weak regions of this volcano. Shipborne and near-seafloor geological and geophysical data collected by the AUV Sentry are used to determine the subsurface distribution of weak and unstable volcanic rocks. The resulting model provides evidence for potentially unstable areas located in the Southeastern flank of this volcano which should be included in future hazard predictions.

Description: Broadband seismic experiments over the last two decades have produced dense data coverage across Tibet. Yet, the mechanism of the India-Asia lithospheric convergence beneath it remains a puzzle, with even its basic features debated and with very different end-member models advocated today. We measured highly accurate Rayleigh- and Love-wave phase-velocity curves in broad period ranges (up to 5-200 s) for a few tens of pairs and groups of stations across Tibet, combining, in each case, hundreds to thousands of inter-station measurements made with cross-correlation and waveform-inversion methods. Robust shear-velocity profiles were then determined by extensive series of non-linear inversions of the data, designed to constrain the depth-dependent ranges of isotropic-average shear speeds and radial anisotropy. Temperature anomalies in the upper mantle were estimated from shear velocities using accurate petro-physical relationships. Our results reveal strong heterogeneity in the upper mantle beneath Tibet. Very large high-velocity anomalies in the upper mantle are consistent with the presence of underthrust (beneath southwestern Tibet) and subducted (beneath central and eastern Tibet) Indian lithosphere. The lithosphere. In contrast to the Indian lithosphere, Tibetan lithosphere and asthenosphere display low to normal shear speeds; Tibetan lithosphere is thus warm and thin. Radial anisotropy in the upper mantle is weak in central and strong in northeastern Tibet, possibly reflecting asthenospheric flow above the subducting Indian lithospheric slab.

Description: The Pacific Northwest (PNW) has experienced voluminous intraplate volcanism over the past ~17 Ma, beginning with the Steens/Columbia River flood basalts and continuing with the still-ongoing volcanism in the High Lava Plains (HLP) and eastern Snake River Plain (SRP). Here we present two complementary datasets (SKS splitting and Rayleigh wave phase velocity anisotropy) that place constraints on the anisotropic structure of the upper mantle beneath the HLP and SRP regions. Beneath the HLP, SKS phases reveal dominantly E-W fast splitting directions and large (up to ~2.7 sec) delay times, with pronounced lateral variations in δ t . Lateral and depth variability in the strength of anisotropy beneath the HLP is also evident from Rayleigh wave dispersion. Beneath the SRP, SKS splitting delay times are much smaller (~0.5 sec) and surface wave observations suggest a region of upper mantle anisotropy (~50-150 km depth) with a geometry that deviates significantly from the generally plate motion parallel fast directions observed just outside of the SRP. Beneath the HLP, the geometry of the anomalously strong anisotropy is similar to the anisotropy in the deeper parts of the upper mantle, resulting in constructive interference and large SKS splitting delay times. Beneath the SRP, the geometry of the anomalous anisotropic region in the shallow mantle is different, resulting in destructive interference and reduced SKS splitting delay times. We discuss several possible explanations for these observations, including variations in olivine lattice preferred orientation (LPO) strength, transitions in olivine fabric type, and a contribution from aligned partial melt.

Description: The cosmic-ray neutron probe measures soil moisture over tens of hectares, thus averaging spatially variable soil moisture fields. A previous paper described how variable soil moisture profiles affect the integrated cosmic-ray neutron signal from which depth-average soil moisture is computed. Here, we investigate the effect of horizontal heterogeneity on the relationship between neutron counts and average soil moisture. Observations from a distributed sensor network at a site in southern Arizona indicate that the horizontal component of the total variance of the soil moisture field is less variably in time than the vertical component. Using results from neutron particle transport simulations we show that 1-D binary distributions of soil moisture may affect both the mean and variance of neutron counts of a cosmic-ray neutron detector placed arbitrarily in a soil moisture field, potentially giving rise to an underestimate of the footprint average soil moisture. Similar simulations that used 1 and 2-D Gaussian soil moisture fields indicate consistent mean and variances of a randomly placed detector if the correlation length scales are short (〈˜30 m) and/or the soil moisture field variance is small (〈0.032 m 6 m -6 ). Taken together, these soil moisture observations and neutron transport simulations show that horizontal heterogeneity likely has a small effect on the relationship between mean neutron counts and average soil moisture for soils under natural conditions.

Description: The bulk composition of the silicate portion of the Earth (BSE) has long been assumed to be tied to chondrites, in which refractory, lithophile elements like Sm and Nd exist in chondritic relative abundances. However, the 142 Nd/ 144 Nd ratios of modern terrestrial samples are 18±5 ppm higher than the ordinary-chondrite reservoir, and this challenges the traditional BSE model. Here we investigate a hypothesis that this terrestrial 142 Nd excess is related to a Sm/Nd ratio 6% higher than chondritic. This Sm/Nd ratio yields a superchondritic 143 Nd/ 144 Nd (~0.5130) similar to that identified in the highest 3 He/ 4 He mantle reservoir, and we argue that this reservoir represents the BSE composition for lithophile elements. We develop a compositional model for BSE in which the elevated Sm/Nd requires a shift of 143 Nd/ 144 Nd from 0.51263 (chondritic) to 0.51300. The new BSE composition is depleted in highly incompatible elements, including K, relative to the chondrite-based BSE, and offers a solution the “missing” 40 Ar paradox. This BSE compositional model requires that 〉83% of the mantle is depleted to form continental crust. It also implies a ~30% reduction in BSE U, Th and K, and therefore in the current rate of radiogenic heating and, thus, a proportional increase in the heat flow delivered to surface by plate tectonics. We explore thermal history models including effects related to a newly recognized evolution in the style of plate tectonics over Earth history: The lower radiogenic heat production may delay the onset of core convection and dynamo action to as late as 3.5 Gyr.

Description: The internal geological structure of the Northeast German Basin (NEGB) is affected by intense salt diapirism and by the presence of several stratified aquifer complexes of regional relevance. The shallow Quaternary to late Tertiary freshwater aquifer is separated from the underlying Mesozoic saline aquifers by an embedded Tertiary clay enriched aquitard (Rupelian Aquitard). An important feature of this aquitard is that hydraulic connections between the upper and lower aquifers do exist in areas where the Rupelian Aquitard is missing (hydrogeological windows). Three-dimensional thermohaline numerical simulations are carried out to investigate the effects of such hydrogeological windows in the Rupelian Aquitard on the resulting groundwater, temperature and salinity distributions. Numerical results suggest that hydrogeological windows act as preferential domains of hydraulic interconnectivity between the different aquifers at depth, and enable vigorous heat and mass transport which causes a mixing of warm and saline groundwater with cold and less saline groundwater within both aquifers. In areas where the Rupelian Aquitard confines the Mesozoic aquifer, dissolved solutes from major salt structures are transported laterally giving rise to plumes of variable salinity content ranging from few hundreds of meters to several tens of kilometers. Furthermore, destabilizing thermal buoyancy forces may overwhelm counteracting stabilizing salinity induced forces offside of salt domes. This may result in buoyant upward groundwater flow transporting heat and mass to shallower levels within the same Mesozoic Aquifer.

Description: Widespread disturbance within forested catchments typically increases runoff. However, following widespread fire in 1939 throughout south-east Australia Kuczera [1987] reported persistent reductions in runoff that were attributed to increased evapotranspiration from regenerating ‘ash’ forests. Kuczera projected ongoing reductions of water yield for ~150 years. In 2003 widespread fire in the headwaters of the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) again stimulated extensive regeneration of ash forests, raising the prospect of subsequent water yield reductions. To understand the potential impact of the 2003 bushfires we re-evaluated yield reductions from three of the catchments originally studied by Kuczera using the same calibration period. We also used an expanded pre-fire calibration period (1908-1938) based on data not originally available to Kuczera. The trend of post-fire water yield that we observed in 1939-affected catchments is qualitatively consistent with Kuczera's projections, but the quantitative details were, as expected, sensitive to the pre-fire calibration period used. We then used a simplified method to examine a further five ash-dominated catchments affected by the 2003 fires. We report relative reductions in mean annual stream flow in all five catchments and a statistically significant (α=0.05) post-fire reduction in one of five catchments. Post-fire yield reductions during the austral summer (October-April) were greater in relative magnitude in all five catchments and were statistically significant (α=0.05) in three of five catchments. We conclude that a post-bushfire Kuczera-type response may be widespread in regenerating ash forests. On that basis we anticipate post-fire yield reductions in ash forests elsewhere and conclude that further reductions in stream flow are likely in the MDB for at least another decade.

Description: Long continuous seismic data recorded at five broadband seismic stations during 2006 at Campi Flegrei caldera have been analyzed. Introducing a coarse-grained method, we evaluate the time evolution of amplitude and polarization of the seismic noise in the frequency band common to Long-Period events. The series are modulated on tidal time scales: the root-mean square is basically dominated by solar contribution, while the azimuth of the polarization vector shows lunar diurnal and semidiurnal constituents. In addition, we find that in the frequency band common to Long-Period events the azimuths are polarized towards a specific area, suggesting that these persistent oscillations can be induced by the activity of the shallow geothermal reservoir.

Description: We report on the mineralogical assemblages found in the hyper-alkaline springs hosted on Liguria and Oman ophiolites based on exhaustive XRD and SEM analyses. In Liguria, hyper-alkaline springs produce a thin brownish calcite precipitate that covers the bedrock due to the concomitant atmospheric CO 2 uptake and neutralization of the hyper-alkaline waters. No brucite and portlandite minerals are observed. The discharge of alkaline waters in Oman ophiolite forms white-orange precipitates. Calcium carbonate minerals (calcite and/or aragonite) are the most abundant and ubiquitous precipitates and are produced by the same mechanism as in Liguria. This process is observed as a thin surface crust made of rhombohedral calcite. Morphological features of aragonite vary from needle-, bouquet-, dumbbell-, spheroidal-like habitus according to the origin of carbon, the temperature and the ionic composition of the hyper-alkaline springs, and the biochemical and organic compounds. Brucite is observed both at hyper-alkaline springs located at the thrust plane and at the paleo-Moho. The varying mixing proportions between the surface run-off waters and the hyper-alkaline ones control brucite precipitation. The Layered Double Hydroxide minerals occur solely in vicinity of hyper-alkaline springs emerging within the bedded gabbros. Finally, the dominant mineralogical associations we found in Oman (Ca-bearing carbonates and brucite) in a serpentinizing environment driven by the meteoric waters are surprisingly the same as those observed at the Lost City hydrothermal site in a totally marine environment.

Description: A computer program (PBUQ) that uses Monte Carlo simulations to propagate uncertainty through regression equations and the equation for the paleosol carbonate CO 2 paleobarometer is presented. PBUQ includes options for all of the common approaches to determining values for input variables and incorporates several recent advancements relevant to determining values for soil-respired CO 2 concentrations, δ 13 C values of respired CO 2 , δ 13 C values of atmospheric CO 2 and temperatures of soil carbonate formation. PBUQ is intended to improve confidence in paleoatmospheric CO 2 research by helping researchers draw statistically significant conclusions. PBUQ can also be used to attribute and partition error among various sources and thereby advance this technique. Sensitivity analysis indicates that S(z) is the largest source of uncertainty for most paleosols and that uncertainty is minimized for soils in which CO 2 is an evenly balanced mixture between soil-derived and atmospheric components. Evenly balanced mixtures are most likely for paleosols formed in deserts and for weakly-developed paleosols. Development of proxies for soil-respired CO 2 concentrations and δ 13 C values of soil-respired CO 2 specifically for such soils is perhaps the most crucial next step for improving this technique. Currently, calcic paleosols are best used to test the significance of trends and/or differences among time slices in paleoatmospheric CO 2 concentration. Application to quantifying Earth System Sensitivity will require large scale averaging of determinations from individual paleosols and/or reduced uncertainty associated with input variables.

Description: Long-lived detachment faults are now known to be important in tectonic evolution of slow-spreading mid-ocean ridges, and there is increasing evidence that fluid flow plays a critical role in development of detachment systems. Here we document a new manifestation of low-temperature hydrothermal venting associated with the detachment fault that formed Kane Megamullion ~3.3-2.1 m.y. ago in the western rift-valley wall of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Hydrothermal effects on the detachment surface include 1) cemented mounds of igneous rock and chalk debris containing hydrothermal Mn oxides and Fe oxyhydroxides, and 2) layered deposits of similar Fe-Mn minerals ± interbedded chalks. Mounds are roughly conical, ~1-10 meters high, and contain primarily basalts with lesser gabbro, serpentinite, and polymict breccia. The layered Fe-Mn-rich sediments are flat-bedded to contorted and locally are buckled into low-relief linear or polygonal ridges. We propose that the mounds formed where hydrothermal fluids discharged through the detachment hanging wall near the active fault trace. Hydrothermal precipitates cemented hanging-wall debris and welded it to the footwall, and this debris persisted as mounds as the footwall was exhumed and surrounding unconsolidated material sloughed off the sloping detachment surface. Some of the layered Fe-Mn-rich deposits may have precipitated from fluids discharging from the hanging-wall vents, but they also precipitated from low-temperature fluids venting from the exposed footwall through overlying chalks. Observed natural disturbance and abnormally thin hydrogenous Fe-Mn crusts on some contorted, hydrothermal Fe-Mn-rich chalks on ~2.7 Ma crust suggest diffuse venting that is geologically recent. Results of this study imply that there are significant fluid pathways through all parts of detachment systems and that low-temperature venting through fractured detachment footwalls may continue for several million years off-axis.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. The process of disease transmission is determined by the interaction of host susceptibility and exposure to parasite infectious stages. Host behavior is an important determinant of the likelihood of exposure to infectious stages, but is difficult to measure and often assumed to be homogenous in models of disease spread. We evaluated the importance of precisely defining host contact when using networks that estimate exposure and predict infection prevalence in a replicated, empirical system. In particular, we hypothesized that infection patterns would be predicted only by a contact network that is defined according to host behavior and parasite life-cycle. Two competing host contact criteria were used to construct networks defined by parasite life-cycle and social contacts. First, parasite defined contacts were based on shared space with a time-delay corresponding to the environmental development time of nematode parasites with a direct fecal-oral life-cycle. Second, social contacts were defined by shared space in the same time period. To quantify the competing networks of exposure and infection, we sampled natural populations of the eastern chipmunk and infection of their gastro-intestinal helminth community using replicated longitudinal capture-mark-recapture techniques. We predicted that 1) infection with parasites with direct fecal-oral life-cycles would be explained by the time-delay contact network but not the social contact network; 2) infection with parasites with trophic life-cycles (via a mobile intermediate host, thus, spatially decoupling transmission from host contact) would not be explained by either contact network. The prevalence of fecal-oral life-cycle nematode parasites was strongly correlated to the number and strength of network connections from the parasite-defined network (including the time-delay), while the prevalence of trophic life-cycle parasites was not correlated with any network metrics. We concluded that incorporating the parasite life-cycle, relative to the way that exposure is measured, is key to inferring transmission and can be empirically quantified using network techniques. In addition, appropriately defining and measuring contacts according the life-history of the parasite and relevant behaviors of the host is a crucial step in applying network analyses to empirical systems.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 4, Page 766-776, June 2013. Autogenic ecosystem engineers are critically important parts of many marine and estuarine systems because of their substantial effect on ecosystem services. Oysters are of particular importance because of their capacity to modify coastal and estuarine habitats and the highly degraded status of their habitats worldwide. However, models to predict dynamics of ecosystem engineers have not previously included the effects of exploitation. We developed a linked population and habitat model for autogenic ecosystem engineers undergoing exploitation. We parameterized the model to represent eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) in upper Chesapeake Bay by selecting sets of parameter values that matched observed rates of change in abundance and habitat. We used the model to evaluate the effects of a range of management and restoration options including sustainability of historical fishing pressure, effectiveness of a newly enacted sanctuary program, and relative performance of two restoration approaches. In general, autogenic ecosystem engineers are expected to be substantially less resilient to fishing than an equivalent species that does not rely on itself for habitat. Historical fishing mortality rates in upper Chesapeake Bay for oysters were above the levels that would lead to extirpation. Reductions in fishing or closure of the fishery were projected to lead to long-term increases in abundance and habitat. For fisheries to become sustainable outside of sanctuaries, a substantial larval subsidy would be required from oysters within sanctuaries. Restoration efforts using high-relief reefs were predicted to allow recovery within a shorter period of time than low-relief reefs. Models such as ours, that allow for feedbacks between population and habitat dynamics, can be effective tools for guiding management and restoration of autogenic ecosystem engineers.

Description: Drought triggers are patterns in hydro-climatic variables that herald upcoming droughts and form the basis for mitigation plans. This study develops a new method for identification of triggers for hydrologic droughts by examining the association between the various hydro-climatic variables and streamflows. Since numerous variables influence streamflows to varying degrees, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is utilized for dimensionality reduction in predictor hydro-climatic variables. The joint dependence between the first two principal components, that explain over 98% of the variability in the predictor set, and streamflows is computed by a scale-free measure of association using asymmetric Archimedean copulas over two study watersheds in Indiana, USA, with unregulated streamflows. The M6 copula model is found to be suitable for the data and is utilized to find expected values and ranges of predictor hydro-climatic variables for different streamflow quantiles. This information is utilized to develop drought triggers for one-month lead time over the study areas. For the two study watersheds, soil moisture, precipitation and runoff are found to provide the fidelity to resolve amongst different drought classes. Combining the strengths of PCA for dimensionality reduction and copulas for building joint dependence allows the development of hydrologic drought triggers in an efficient manner.

Description: We present a unified asymptotic theory of rainfall extremes including annual maxima, excesses above high thresholds, and intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves that builds on previous findings and derive new non-asymptotic results. The analysis is based on stationary multifractal representations of rainfall and produces extensions of the familiar results from extreme value (EV) and extreme excess (EE) theories. The latter results apply to the T -yr maximum as and the excess above z as . By exploiting the scaling relationship among the distributions of rainfall intensity for different averaging durations d , the multifractal asymptotics include, in addition, results in the small-scale limits and with α 〉 0. In all cases the maximum distributions are of the generalized extreme value (GEV) type, but the index k depends on the limit considered. Multifractal models produce also asymptotic scaling results for the IDF curves. For the non-asymptotic case ( d and T finite), we obtain accurate approximations of the IDF curves and derive a semi-theoretical formula for the index k of the GEV model that best approximates the distribution of the annual maximum over a finite range of return-period intensities. The non-asymptotic analysis explains several observed deviations of rainfall extremes from the asymptotic predictions, such as the tendency of k to decrease as the averaging duration d increases and the tendency of the IDF curves to converge as d or the return period T increase.

Description: Remaining oil saturation established by waterflooding was measured in Indiana limestone in its original, water-wet state and under mixed-wet conditions established by adding organic acid to the oil phase. The porous plate technique was used to establish initial oil saturations ranging from S nwi = 0.23 to 0.93 under capillary-dominated conditions. For water-wet conditions, the residual oil saturation increased linearly with its initial saturation. In contrast, the remaining oil saturation under mixed-wet conditions, S nw , displayed three distinct regimes. First, S nw increased with its initial saturation up to S nwi = 0.58. Next, S nw decreased from S nwi = 0.58 to 0.76. Finally, S nw increased again as S nwi approached one. The non-monotonic dependence of S nw on S nwi at S nwi 〉 0.5 is well described by a concave-up quadratic function, and may be a salient feature of mixed-wet rocks.

Description: We present a general phenomenological formalism for the modeling of hydraulic head behaviour in naturally fractured aquifers. A non local in time version of the double porosity model is developed for Euclidean and fractal reservoirs. In the fractal case, time non-locality allows to find the geometric and topological factors responsible for subdiffusive behaviour in such heterogeneous environments. Opposite to other fractal models presented in the literature Chang and Yortsos [1990], our model include dead-ends-backbone interactions instead of matrix-fracture interactions with clear and well defined scaling exponents, thus giving a better characterization of the reservoir after such parameters are estimated. Applications to field tests are discussed. In particular, a distinctive short time head behaviour during well tests is found.

Description: The publicly available global discharge database is limited in spatial and temporal coverage. Although regional exceptions exist, the population of the database has declined over the past several years. As discharge is one of the most important parameters for modeling hydrological interactions, alternative measuring techniques must be sought. In the recent past, satellite altimetry has been investigated as an alternative for monitoring inland water level. In the present study, altimetry footprints in the vicinity of river gauging stations for the Amazon, Amur, Brahmaputra, Danube, Don, Mekong, Niger, Ob and Vistula rivers are analyzed for a functional relationship between the water level measurements from altimetry and discharge from the gauging stations. Such a functional relationship is conventionally established via a rating curve computed using simultaneous data. This study proposes a statistical approach based on quantile functions to infer this functional relation without the need for having synchronous datasets. The statistical approach provides the opportunity of extracting discharge values from altimetry data for rivers like the Mekong, Brahmaputra, Don and Vistula for which the discharge measurements at the selected gauges were made before the age of satellites. The algorithm is then validated over those rivers which do have discharge measurements available within periods of altimetry. Our validation shows that our algorithm is in the same quality range as the conventional approach. We are thus able to salvage pre-satellite altimetry discharge data and turn them into active use for the satellite altimetry time frame.

Description: P and S relative arrival time residuals from teleseismic earthquakes recorded on over 60 temporary AfricaArray broadband seismic stations deployed in Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia between 2007 and 2011 have been inverted, together with relative arrival time residuals from earthquakes recorded by previous deployments, for a tomographic image of mantle wave speed variations extending to a depth of 1200 km beneath eastern Africa. The image shows a low wave speed anomaly (LWA) well developed at shallow depths (100-200 km) beneath the Eastern and Western branches of the Cenozoic East African rift system and northwestern Zambia, and a fast wave speed anomaly at depths ≤ 350 km beneath the central and northern parts of the East African Plateau and the eastern and central parts of Zambia. At depths ≥350 km the LWA is most prominent under the central and southern parts of the East African Plateau and dips to the southwest beneath northern Zambia, extending to a depth of at least 900 km. The amplitude of the LWA is consistent with a ~150-300 K thermal perturbation, and its depth extent indicates that the African superplume, originally identified as a lower mantle anomaly, is likely a whole mantle structure. A superplume extending from the core-mantle boundary to the surface implies an origin for the Cenozoic extension, volcanism and plateau uplift in eastern Africa rooted in the dynamics of the lower mantle.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. A simple population model is developed to evaluate the role of plastic and evolutionary life history changes on sustainable exploitation rates. Plastic changes are embodied in density-dependent compensatory adjustments to somatic growth rate and larval/juvenile survival, which can compensate for the reductions in reproductive lifetime and mean population fecundity that accompany the higher adult mortality imposed by exploitation. Evolutionary changes are embodied in the selective pressures that higher adult mortality imposes on age at maturity, length at maturity, and reproductive investment. Analytical development, based on a biphasic growth model, leads to simple equations that show explicitly how sustainable exploitation rates are bounded by each of these effects. We show that density-dependent growth combined with a fixed length at maturity and fixed reproductive investment can support exploitation-driven mortality that is 80% of the level supported by evolutionary changes in maturation and reproductive investment. Sustainable fishing mortality is proportional to natural mortality (M) times the degree of density-dependent growth, as modified by both the degree of density-dependent early survival and the minimum harvestable length. We apply this model to estimate sustainable exploitation rates for North American walleye populations (Sander vitreus). Our analysis of demographic data from walleye populations spread across a broad latitudinal range indicates that density-dependent variation in growth rate can vary by a factor of two. Implications of this growth response are generally consistent with empirical studies suggesting that optimal fishing mortality is approximately 0.75M for teleosts. This approach can be adapted to the management of other species, particularly when significant exploitation is imposed on many, widely distributed but geographically isolated populations.

Description: In the Garibaldi Belt, the northern segment of the Cascade arc, basalts at Bridge River Cones, Salal Glacier, and Mt. Meager (BSM volcanic centers) are alkalic, atypical for an arc setting. Subduction signatures are negligible or absent from primitive alkalic basalts from Salal Glacier and Bridge River, while altered oceanic crust may have contributed a minimal amount of fluid at Mt. Meager. More evolved BSM basalts display trace element signatures considered typical of arc lavas, but this is a consequence of deep crustal assimilation rather than primary input from the subducted slab. Primary BSM basalts represent 3-8% melts that segregated from enriched garnet lherzolite at significantly higher temperatures and pressures (70-105 km) than calc-alkaline Cascade arc basalts. The BSM mantle source is significantly more incompatible element-enriched than the depleted mantle tapped by calc-alkaline Cascade arc basalts. The BSM basalts are also isotopically distinct from calc-alkaline Cascade arc basalts, more similar to MORB and intraplate basalts of the NE Pacific and NW North America. The relatively deep, hot, and geochemically distinct mantle source for BSM basalts is consistent with upwelling asthenosphere. The BSM volcanic centers are close to the projected trace of the Nootka fault, which forms the boundary between the subducting Juan de Fuca plate and the near-stagnant Explorer plate. A gap or attenuated zone between the plates may promote upwelling of enriched asthenosphere that undergoes low-degree decompression melting to generate alkalic basalts that are essentially free of slab input yet occur in an arc setting.

Description: The temporal evolution of the mantle melting processes in the Asal Rift is evaluated from the chemical composition of 56 new lava flows sampled along 10 km of the rift axis and 9 km off-axis (i.e., erupted within the last 620 ky). Petrological and primary geochemical results show that most of the samples of the inner floor of the Asal Rift are affected by plagioclase accumulation. Trace element ratios and major element compositions corrected for mineral accumulation and crystallization show a symmetric pattern relative to the rift axis and preserved a clear signal of mantle melting depth variations. While FeO, Fe 8.0 , Zr/Y and (Dy/Yb) N decrease from the rift shoulders to the rift axis, SiO 2 , Na/Ti, Lu/Hf increase and Na 2 O and Na 8.0 are constant across the rift. These variations are qualitatively consistent with shallow melting beneath the rift axis and deeper melting for off-axis lava flows. Na 8.0 and Fe 8.0 contents show that beneath the rift axis, melting paths are shallow, from 81 ± 4 km to 43 ± 5 km. These melting paths are consistent with adiabatic melting in normal-temperature fertile asthenosphere, beneath an extensively thinned mantle lithosphere. On the contrary, melting on the rift shoulders (from 107 ± 7 km to 67 ± 8 km) occurred beneath thicker lithosphere, requiring a mantle solidus temperature 100 ± 40 °C hotter. In this geodynamic environment, the calculated rate of lithospheric thinning appears to be 4.0 ± 2.0 cm yr -1 , a value close to the mean spreading rate (2.9 ± 0.2 cm yr -1 ) over the last 620 ky.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Long-term fire exclusion has altered ecological function in many forested ecosystems in North America. The invasion of fire-sensitive tree species into formerly pyrogenic upland forests in the southeastern USA has resulted in dramatic shifts in surface fuels that have been hypothesized to cause reductions in plant community flammability. The mechanism for the reduced flammability or "mesophication" has lacked empirical study. Here we evaluate a potential mechanism of reduced flammability by quantifying moisture retention (response time and initial moisture capacity) of foliar litter beds from 17 southeastern tree species spanning a wide range of fire tolerance. K-means cluster analysis resulted in four species groups: a rapidly drying cluster of eight species; a five species group that absorbed little water, but desorbed slowly; a two species group that absorbed substantial moisture but desorbed rapidly; and a two species cluster that absorbed substantial moisture and dried slowly. Fire-sensitive species were segregated into the slow moisture loss clusters while fire-tolerant species tended to cluster in the rapid drying groups. Principal Components Analysis indicated that several leaf characteristics correlated with absorption capacity and drying rates. Thin-leaved species with high surface area:volume absorbed the greatest moisture content, while those with large, curling leaves had the fastest drying rates. The dramatic shifts in litter fuels as a result of invasion by fire-sensitive species generate a positive feedback that reduce the windows of ignition, thereby facilitating the survival, persistence, and continued invasion of fire-sensitive species in the uplands of the southeastern USA.

Description: Global Positioning System (GPS) and Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR) data, collected from July 2007 to July 2008 on Mt. Etna, are analysed to define the dynamics preceding and accompanying the onset of the eruption on 13 May 2008. Short and long-term comparisons have been made on both GPS and radar data, covering similar time windows. Thanks to the availability of three GPS surveys the year before the eruption onset, an increase in the seawards movement of the NE flank of the volcano has been detected in the few months before the dike intrusion. The GPS ground deformation pattern also shows a slight inflation centred on the western side of the volcano in the pre-eruptive long-term comparison (from July 2007 to May 2008). The GPS has been integrated with DInSAR data by the SISTEM approach, to take advantage of the different methodologies and provide high spatial sampling of the 3D ground displacement pattern. We inverted the SISTEM results in order to model the pressure source causing the observed pre-eruptive inflation. The subsequent emplacement of the eruptive dike was imaged by two GPS surveys carried out on a dense network over the uppermost part of the volcano on May 6 and 13, i.e. a few days before and a few hours after the beginning of the eruption. We inverted this comparison to define the position, geometry and kinematics of the dike. The dike intrusion was also imaged by DInSAR data with temporal baselines of 2-3 months, which confirm strong displacements localized on the summit area, rapidly decreasing towards the middle flanks of the volcano, as detected by very short-term GPS data; furthermore, the comparison between DInSAR and GPS data highlighted the presence of a depressurizing source localized beneath the upper south-western area, acting just after the dike intrusion. Finally, the long period (one year) GPS and DInSAR data were integrated by SISTEM in order to finely depict the 3D ground deformation pattern with the highest spatial resolution. The long-period data allowed the complex kinematics of the volcano to be finely imaged and highlighting the interaction between flank dynamics and magma injection.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 4, Page 936-943, June 2013. A typical way to quantify aboveground carbon in forests is to measure tree diameters and use species-specific allometric equations to estimate biomass and carbon stocks. Using “citizen scientists” to collect data that are usually time-consuming and labor-intensive can play a valuable role in ecological research. However, data validation, such as establishing the sampling error in volunteer measurements, is a crucial, but little studied, part of utilizing citizen science data. The aims of this study were to (1) evaluate the quality of tree diameter and height measurements carried out by volunteers compared to expert scientists and (2) estimate how sensitive carbon stock estimates are to these measurement sampling errors. Using all diameter data measured with a diameter tape, the volunteer mean sampling error (difference between repeated measurements of the same stem) was 9.9 mm, and the expert sampling error was 1.8 mm. Excluding those sampling errors 〉1 cm, the mean sampling errors were 2.3 mm (volunteers) and 1.4 mm (experts) (this excluded 14% [volunteer] and 3% [expert] of the data). The sampling error in diameter measurements had a small effect on the biomass estimates of the plots: a volunteer (expert) diameter sampling error of 2.3 mm (1.4 mm) translated into 1.7% (0.9%) change in the biomass estimates calculated from species-specific allometric equations based upon diameter. Height sampling error had a dependent relationship with tree height. Including height measurements in biomass calculations compounded the sampling error markedly; the impact of volunteer sampling error on biomass estimates was ±15%, and the expert range was ±9%. Using dendrometer bands, used to measure growth rates, we calculated that the volunteer (vs. expert) sampling error was 0.6 mm (vs. 0.3 mm), which is equivalent to a difference in carbon storage of ±0.011 kg C/yr (vs. ±0.002 kg C/yr) per stem. Using a citizen science model for monitoring carbon stocks not only has benefits in educating and engaging the public in science, but as demonstrated here, can also provide accurate estimates of biomass or forest carbon stocks.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 4, Page 710-725, June 2013. Decision-makers charged with implementing ecosystem-based management (EBM) rely on scientists to predict the consequences of decisions relating to multiple, potentially conflicting, objectives. Such predictions are inherently uncertain, and this can be a barrier to decision-making. The Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources requires managers of Southern Ocean fisheries to sustain the productivity of target stocks, the health and resilience of the ecosystem, and the performance of the fisheries themselves. The managers of the Antarctic krill fishery in the Scotia Sea and southern Drake Passage have requested advice on candidate management measures consisting of a regional catch limit and options for subdividing this among smaller areas. We developed a spatially resolved model that simulates krill–predator–fishery interactions and reproduces a plausible representation of past dynamics. We worked with experts and stakeholders to identify (1) key uncertainties affecting our ability to predict ecosystem state; (2) illustrative reference points that represent the management objectives; and (3) a clear and simple way of conveying our results to decision-makers. We developed four scenarios that bracket the key uncertainties and evaluated candidate management measures in each of these scenarios using multiple stochastic simulations. The model emphasizes uncertainty and simulates multiple ecosystem components relating to diverse objectives. We summarize the potentially complex results as estimates of the risk that each illustrative objective will not be achieved (i.e., of the state being outside the range specified by the reference point). This approach allows direct comparisons between objectives. It also demonstrates that a candid appraisal of uncertainty, in the form of risk estimates, can be an aid, rather than a barrier, to understanding and using ecosystem model predictions. Management measures that reduce coastal fishing, relative to oceanic fishing, apparently reduce risks to both the fishery and the ecosystem. However, alternative reference points could alter the perceived risks, so further stakeholder involvement is needed to identify risk metrics that appropriately represent their objectives.

Description: While satellite based remote-sensing has provided hydrologists with valuable new datasets, integration of such datasets in operational modeling systems is usually not straightforward due to spatial or temporal resolution issues or because remote sensing does not directly measure the hydrological quantities of interest. This is the case for satellite based radar-altimetry. River level variations can be tracked using radar altimetry at a temporal resolution between 10 and 35 days, depending on the satellite, but hydrologists are typically interested in river flows rather than levels and require predictions at daily or even sub-daily temporal resolutions. One way to exploit satellite radar altimetry is therefore to combine the data with hydrological models in a data assimilation framework. In this study, radar altimetry data from 6 ENVISAT virtual stations were assimilated to a routing model of the main reach of the Brahmaputra River driven by the outputs of a calibrated rainfall runoff model. The Extended Kalman Filter was used to update the routed water volumes for the years 2008 to 2010. Model performance was improved with the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for daily discharge increasing from 0.78 to 0.84. The method uses very little in situ data and is easily implemented as an add-on to hydrological models and it therefore has the potential for large scale application to improve hydrological predictions in many river basins.

Description: Management of water temperatures in the Columbia River Basin (Washington) is critical because water projects have substantially altered the habitat of Endangered Species Act (ESA) listed species, such as salmon, throughout the basin. This is most important in tributaries to the Columbia, such as the Methow River, where the spawning and rearing life stages of these cold water fishes occurs. Climate change projections generally predict increasing air temperatures across the western United States, with less confidence regarding shifts in precipitation. As air temperatures rise, we anticipate a corresponding increase in water temperatures, which may alter the timing and availability of habitat for fish reproduction and growth. To assess the impact of future climate change in the Methow River, we couple historical climate and future climate projections with a statistical modeling framework to predict daily mean stream temperatures. A K -nearest neighbor algorithm is also employed to: (i) adjust the climate projections for biases compared to the observed record and (ii) provide a reference for performing spatiotemporal disaggregation in future hydraulic modeling of stream habitat. The statistical models indicate the primary drivers of stream temperature are maximum and minimum air temperature and streamflow and show reasonable skill in predictability. When compared to the historical reference time period of 1916-2006, we conclude that increases in stream temperature are expected to occur at each subsequent time horizon representative of the year 2020, 2040, and 2080, with an increase of 0.8 ± 1.9 °C by the year 2080.

Description: Thermal remote sensing methods for mapping evapotranspiration (ET) exploit the physical interconnection that exists between land-surface temperature (LST) and evaporative cooling, employing principles of surface energy balance (SEB). Unfortunately, while many applications in water resource management require ET information at daily and field spatial scales, current satellite-based thermal sensors are characterized by either low spatial resolution and high repeatability or by moderate/high spatial resolution and low frequency. Here we introduce a novel approach to ET mapping that fuses characteristics of both classes of sensors to provide optimal spatiotemporal coverage. In this approach, coarse resolution daily ET maps generated with a SEB model using geostationary satellite data are spatially disaggregated using daily MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) 1-km and bi-weekly Landsat LST imagery sharpened to 30-m. These ET fields are then fused to obtain daily ET maps at 30-m spatial resolution. The accuracy of the fused Landsat-MODIS daily ET maps was evaluated over Iowa using observations collected at 8 flux towers sited in corn and soybean fields during the Soil Moisture Experiment of 2002 (SMEX02), as well as in comparison with a Landsat-only retrieval. A significant improvement in ET accuracy (reducing errors from 0.75 to 0.58 mm/d on average) was obtained by fusing MODIS and Landsat data in comparison with the Landsat-only case, with most notable improvements when a rainfall event occurred between two successive Landsat acquisitions. The improvements are further evident at the seasonal timescale, where a 3% error is obtained using Landsat-MODIS fusion vs. a 9% Landsat-only systematic underestimation.

Description: A regional survey of alkaline springs in Oman and Ligurian ophiolites shows that the alkaline water compositions significantly vary from one ophiolite to the other and within the same ophiolite. The first order correlation between the Na (and K) and Cl concentrations points to fluid compositions only partly due to evaporation. The scatter around the evaporation line implies that Na and Cl may not be conservative during the alteration of the ultramafic rocks. Mg is almost entirely depleted at pH 〉 10.5 as a result of serpentine formation within the ultramafic body and of brucite (and minor hydrotalcite) precipitation at the springs. Ca accumulates in the high pH fluids and is consumed by Ca-carbonate formation at the springs, by mixing with river waters or by the CO2 supply from the atmosphere. Thermodynamic calculations show that brucite saturation is reached at pH values around 10.5 which triggers major changes in the water composition. The waters evolve from a quartz-saturated low pH continental environment to a brucite-dominated high pH serpentinizing system at low temperature. The highest water salinities are found in springs located along the basal thrust plane of the ophiolite. The highest Al concentrations are found in some springs located on the crustal side of the mantle/crust boundary. This poses the question of the hydrologic pathways and of the role of the mineralogical composition of the altered formations.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Understanding tree growth as a function of tree size is important for a multitude of ecological and management applications. Determining what limits growth is of central interest, and forest inventory permanent plots are an abundant source of long-term information but are highly complex. Observation error and multiple sources of shared variation (spatial plot effects, temporal repeated measures, and a mosaic of sampling intervals) make these data challenging to use for growth estimation. We account for these complexities and incorporate potential limiting factors (tree size, competition, and resource supply) into a hierarchical state-space model. We estimate the diameter growth of white fir Abies concolor in the Sierra Nevada of California from forest inventory data, showing that estimating such a model is feasible in a Bayesian framework using readily available modeling tools. In this forest, white fir growth depends strongly on tree size, total plot basal area, and unexplained variation between individual trees. Plot-level resource supply variables (reflecting light, water, and nutrient availability) do not have a strong impact on inventory-size trees. This approach can be applied to many permanent forest plots, leading to greater ecological insights on tree growth.

Description: [1]  This study examines the effect of gas hydrate formation on seismic wave velocities of fine-grained sediments. Synthesis of gas hydrates in fine-grained sediments has proved to be challenging, and how hydrate formation would affect the seismic wave velocities and stiffness of clay-rich sediments has not yet been fully understood. In this study, CO 2 hydrate was synthesized in remolded and partially water-saturated clayey silt sediments that were originally cored from a hydrate occurrence region in the Ulleung Basin, East Sea, offshore Korea. After achieving excess water conditions, compressional wave and shear wave velocities were measured for different hydrate saturations and under different vertical effective stresses. The results reveal that the compressional wave velocity V P and shear wave velocity V S increase and the stress-dependency of V P and V S decreases as the hydrate saturation S H increases from 0% to ~60%. In particular, the V S ‒S H trend lies between the grain-cementing model and the load-bearing model, suggesting that gas hydrate formation in clayey silt sediments causes weak cementation from a hydrate saturation less than ~28%. The weak cementation in fine-grained sediments can be explained by the breakage of hydrate bonds that are cementing grains during sediment compression and/or the innate weakness in bonding between hydrate crystals and fine mineral grains owing to the presence of unfrozen water films on clay mineral surfaces. In addition, it is found that at low S H the cementation effect on V P is masked by the high stiffness of pore-filling phases, but it becomes pronounced at S H greater than 47%.

Description: [1]  Mountain rivers play a key role in the delivery of particulate organic carbon (POC) to large river systems and the ocean. Due to the extent of its drainage area and runoff, the Amazon River is one of Earth's most important biogeochemical systems. However the source of POC eroded from the humid region of the Eastern Andes and the input of fossil POC from sedimentary rocks (POC fossil ) remains poorly constrained. Here we collected suspended sediments from the Kosñipata River during flood events to better characterise Andean POC, measuring the nitrogen to organic carbon ratio (N/C), stable carbon isotopes ( δ 13 C org ) and radiocarbon ( Δ 14 C org ). Δ 14 C org values ranged from -711‰ to -15‰ and significant linear trends between Δ 14 C org, N/C and δ 13 C org suggested that this reflects the mixing of POC fossil with very young organic matter ( Δ 14 C org  ~ 50‰) from the terrestrial biosphere (POC non-fossil ). Using N/C and Δ 14 C org in an end member mixing analysis, we quantify the fraction of POC fossil (to within 0.1) and find that it contributes a constant proportion of the suspended sediment mass (0.37 ± 0.03%) and up to 80% of total POC. In contrast, the relative contribution of POC non-fossil was variable, being most important during the rising limb and peak discharges of flood-events. The new data shed light on published measurements of ‘old’ POC (low Δ 14 C org ) in Andean-fed tributaries of the Amazon River, with their Δ 14 C org and δ 13 C org values consistent with variable addition of POC fossil . The findings suggest a greater persistence of Andean POC in the lowland Amazon than previously recognised.

Description: [1]  The D’ Entrecasteaux Island (DEI) gneiss domes are fault-bounded domes with ~2.5 km of relief exposing ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) and high-pressure (HP) metamorphic gneisses and migmatites exhumed in an Oligocene-Miocene arc-continent collision and subduction zone subject to Late Miocene to Recent continental extension. Multi-channel seismic (MCS) reflection data and well data show the Trobriand basin formed as a forearc basin caused by southward Miocene subduction at the Trobriand trench. Subduction slowed at ~8 Ma as the margin transitioned to an extensional tectonic environment. Since then, the Trobriand basin has subsided 1–2.5 km as a broad sag basin with few normal faults deforming the basin fill. South of the DEI, the Good enough rift basin developed after extension began (~8 Ma) as the hanging-wall of the north-dipping Owen-Stanley normal fault that bounds the basin's southern margin. The lack of upper crustal extension accompanying subsidence in the Trobriand and Good enough basins suggests depth-dependent lithospheric extension since 8 Ma has accompanied uplift of the DEI gneiss domes. Structural reconstructions of seismic profiles show 2.3 to 13.4 km of basin extension in the upper crust, while syn-rift basin subsidence values indicate at least 20.7 to 23.6 km of extension occurred in the entire crust since ~8 Ma. Results indicating thinning is preferentially accommodated in the lower crust surrounding the DEI are used to constrain a schematic model of uplift of the DEI domes involving vertical exhumation of buoyant, post-orogenic lower crust, far-field extension from slab rollback, and an inverted two-layer crustal density structure.

Description: [1]  The relationship between lithospheric evolution of eastern Eurasia and subduction of the Pacific plate has long been debated. However, the timing and implications of subduction on the tectonics of eastern China are not well constrained. Here, we present new zircon U-Pb ages and Hf isotopes, elemental and Sr-Nd-Pb isotopic data on Cretaceous volcanic rocks from the Ningwu basin, eastern China to further address this issue. Our age data reveal rapid eruption of the volcanic rocks within a short duration from 133 to 130 Ma. The rocks, mostly characterized by shoshonitic and high-K calc-alkaline signatures, display light rare earth element and Pb enrichment, Nb, Ta and Ti depletion, highly radiogenic Sr-Pb isotopic ratios and variable ε Hf (t) (+1.8 to −10), suggesting derivation from an enriched lithospheric mantle metasomatized by marine sediments. The early lavas (133.3 ± 1.1 Ma) show stronger subducted-related signatures than the late lavas (130.1 ± 1.0 Ma), which we interpret to reflect consumption of a significant volume of fusible subducted components in the early melting phase. The large ε Hf (t) variation of late lavas suggests greater involvement of asthenospheric melts and lower crust in their petrogenesis. The youngest age (130 Ma) appears to coincide with an inferred change in the direction of Pacific-Eurasia convergence, manifested as a change from extension to transpression in eastern China. The narrow window of eruption may signify a rapid change of the tectonic regime in the Early Cretaceous.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Acoustic sensors can be used to estimate species richness for vocal species such as birds. They can continuously and passively record large volumes of data over extended periods. This data must subsequently be analysed to detect the presence of vocal species. Automated analysis of acoustic data for large numbers of species is complex and can be subject to high levels of false positive and false negative results. Manual analysis by experienced surveyors can produce accurate results, however the time and effort required to process even small volumes of data can make manual analysis prohibitive. This study examined the use of sampling methods to reduce the cost of analysing large volumes of acoustic sensor data, while retaining high levels of species detection accuracy. Utilising five days of manually analysed acoustic sensor data from four sites, we examined a range of sampling frequencies and methods including random, stratified and biologically informed. We found that randomly selecting 120 one-minute samples from the three hours immediately following dawn over five days of recordings, detected the highest number of species. On average, this method detected 62% of total species from 120 one-minute samples, compared to 34% of total species detected from traditional area search methods. Our results demonstrate that targeted sampling methods can provide an effective means for analysing large volumes of acoustic sensor data efficiently and accurately. Development of automated and semi-automated techniques are required to assist in analysing large volumes of acoustic sensor data.

Description: This study reports on two strategies for accelerating posterior inference of a highly parameterized and CPU-demanding groundwater flow model. Our method builds on previous stochastic collocation approaches [e.g., Marzouk and Xiu , 2009; Marzouk and Najm , 2009] and uses generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) theory to emulate the output of a large-scale groundwater flow model. The resulting surrogate model is CPU-efficient and serves to explore the posterior distribution at a much lower computational cost using two-stage MCMC simulation. The case study reported in this paper demonstrates a 2-5 times speed up in sampling efficiency.

Description: An earlier infiltration equation relied on curve fitting of infiltration data for the determination of one of the parameters, which limits its usefulness in practice. This handicap is removed here and the parameter is now evaluated by linking it directly to soil-water properties. The new predictions of infiltration using this evaluation are quite accurate. Positions and shapes of soil-water profiles are also examined in detail and found to be predicted analytically with great precision.

Description: Mid-ocean ridges magmatism is by and large considered to be mostly dry. Nevertheless, numerous works in the last decade have shown that a hydrous component is likely to be involved in ocean ridges magmas genesis and / or evolution. The petrology and geochemistry of peculiar coarse grained gabbros sampled in the upper part of the gabbroic sequence from the Northern Oman ophiolite (Wadi Rajmi) provide information on the origin and fate of hydrous melts in fast spreading oceanic settings. Uncommon crystallization sequences for oceanic settings (clinopyroxene crystallizing before plagioclase), extreme mineral compositions (plagioclase An% up to 99, and clinopyroxene Mg# up to 96), and the presence of magmatic amphibole, imply the presence of a high water activity during crystallization. Various petrological and geochemical constraints point to hydration resulting from the recycling of hydrothermal fluids. This recycling event may have occurred at the top of the axial magma chamber where assimilation of anatectic hydrous melts is recurrent along mid-ocean ridges, or close to segments ends where fresh magma intrudes previously hydrothermally altered crust. In ophiolitic settings, hydration and remelting of hydrothermally altered rocks producing hydrous melts may also occur during the obduction process. Although dry magmatism dominates oceanic magmatism, the dynamic behavior of fast spreading ocean ridge magma chambers has the potential to produce the observed hydrous melts (either in ophiolites or at spreading centers), which are thus part of the general mid-ocean ridges lineage.

Description: The Seismic Array HiKurangi Experiment (SAHKE) investigated the structure of the forearc and subduction plate boundary beneath the southern North Island along a 350 km transect. Tomographic inversion of first-arrival travel times was used to derive a 15-20 km deep P-wave image of the crust. The refracted phases and migrated reflection events image subducting slab geometry and crustal structure. In the west, Australian Plate Moho depth decreases westward across the Taranaki Fault system from 35 to ~28-30 km. In the east, subducted Pacific Plate oceanic crust is recognised to have a positive velocity gradient, but becomes less distinct beneath the Tararua Ranges, where the interface increases in dip at about 15 km depth from 〈5° to 〉15°. This bend in the subducted plate is associated with vertical clusters in seismicity, splay fault branching, and low-velocity high-attenuation material that we interpret to be an underplated subduction sedimentary channel. We infer that a step down in the decollément transfers slip on the plate interface at the top of a subduction channel to the oceanic crust and drives local uplift of the Tararua Ranges. Reflections from the Wairarapa Fault show that it is listric and soles into the top of underplated sediments, which in turn abut the Moho of the over-riding plate at ~32 km depth, near the downdip end of the strongly locked zone. The change in dip of the Hikurangi subduction interface is spatially correlated with the transition from geodetically determined locked to unlocked areas of the plate interface.

Description: Fibre-optic Distributed Temperature Sensing (FO-DTS) has been frequently applied for analysing thermal patterns, including the identification of groundwater-surface water exchange fluxes across aquifer-river interfaces. However, the impacts of a) seasonal variability in signal strength (given by the difference between groundwater and surface water temperatures) and b) monitoring modes on the accuracy of FO-DTS surveys has not yet been determined. This study uses a well investigated field site as model system for quantifying the accuracy and uncertainty of FO-DTS surveys in dependency of seasonal signal variation and monitoring mode. The analysis of the relationship between seasonal variability in signal strength and diurnal oscillations in end-member temperatures at the study site revealed that winter conditions, with substantially lower diurnal temperature oscillations provide the highest temporal stability in signal strength. The choice of monitoring mode proved to have significant impact on the accuracy of FO-DTS surveys. The proposed two-way single-ended averaging of FO-DTS surveys had significant advantages compared to single-ended or double-ended surveys, with a higher accuracy in signal detection in particular for small-scale temperature variations. Since FO-DTS surveys in two-way single-ended averaging mode were better suited for detecting the full complexity of spatial temperature patterns for the investigated aquifer-river interface, we recommend its wider application in similarly complex systems with small-scale thermal patterns.

Description: The paper presents a semianalytical method to solve the multispecies reactive solute-transport equation coupled with a sequential first-order reaction network under spatially or temporally varying flow velocities and dispersion coefficients. This method employs the generalized integral transform technique (GITT) and general linear transformation method by Clement [2001] to transform the set of coupled multispecies reactive transport equations into a set of independent uncoupled equations and to solve these independent equations for spatially or temporally varying flow velocities and dispersion coefficients, as well for temporally varying inlet concentration. The proposed semianalytical solution is compared against previously published analytical solutions of Srinivasan and Clement [2008b] and van Genuchten [1985]. An example is used to show application of the solution to a hypothetical multilayered medium. The solution of proposed approach is compared also with a numerical solution using the 2DFATMIC. Three scenarios are illustrated to show the capabilities of the proposed semianalytical method to deal with aquifer heterogeneity and transient situations. We also show a practical implementation of the solution to an actual field, single-well push-pull test (PPT) example designed to obtain the concentration distribution of reactants consumed and products formed at the end of the injection phase.

Description: The acquisition of reliable datasets representative of hydrological regimes and their variations is a critical concern for water resource assessment. For the subsurface, traditional approaches based on probe measurements, core analysis and well data can be laborious, expensive, and highly intrusive, while only yielding sparse data sets. For this study, an innovative field survey, merging relative microgravimetry, magnetic resonance soundings and hydrological measurements, was conducted to evaluate both surface and subsurface water storage variations in a semi-arid Sahelian area. The instrumental setup was implemented in the lower part of a typical hillslope feeding to a temporary pond. Weekly measurements were carried out using relative spring gravimeters during three months of the rainy season in 2009 over a 350 × 500 m 2 network of twelve microgravity stations. Gravity variations of small to medium amplitude (≤ 220 nm s 2 ) were measured with accuracies better than 50 nm s -2 , revealing significant variations of the water storage at small time (from one week up to three months) and space (from a couple of meters up to a few hundred meters) scales. Consistent spatial organization of the water storage variations were detected, suggesting high infiltration at the outlet of a small gully. The comparison with hydrological measurements and magnetic resonance soundings involved that most of the microgravity variations came from the heterogeneity in the vadose zone. The results highlights the potential of time lapse microgravity surveys for detecting intraseasonal water storage variations and providing rich space-time datasets for process investigation or hydrological model calibration/evaluation.

Description: The instantaneous turbulent flow fields over a smooth bed and a bed containing large-scale roughness elements are characterized by the presence of elongated low and high streamwise momentum regions, or streaks. If the bed contains large-scale roughness elements (e.g., dunes), the size of the streaks increases and is of the order of the size of these elements and the flow depth. The present large eddy simulation (LES) study focuses on the case of developing flow within wide channels containing at the bottom a long array of spanwise-oriented sinusoidal 2D dunes (2a/h=0.1, λ/h=1, λ is the wavelength, 2a is the dune height, h is the mean flow depth) and, respectively, an array of 2D asymmetric dunes (2a/h=0.25, λ/h=3.75) of closer shape to the ones observed in natural streams. For the case of an incoming steady flow, the instantaneous flow fields, in the region where the flow transitions toward a fully-developed turbulent flow regime, contain arrays of highly-organized hairpin vortices whose dimensions are larger than the dune height. LES shows that for relatively shallow channels (e.g., channels with 2a/h=0.25), the large-scale hairpins and the streaks penetrate regularly up to the free surface, thus affecting mass transport and mixing over the whole water column. The paper explains the mechanism for the formation of these arrays of hairpin vortices and discusses changes between a case with asymmetric dunes that are characterized by a large value of λ/2a (=15) and a long upslope face, and a case with symmetric dunes for which λ/2a=10, the upslope face is relatively short and the rate of change of the bed curvature around the dune's crest is relatively small. The study discusses the main mechanisms through which large-scale hairpin form and how these mechanisms change between two dune geometries (sinusoidal vs. asymmetric dunes). We also show that hairpin eddies play the primary role in the formation of the streaks over the region containing dunes and we characterize the average dimensions of these streaks. The presence of resolved turbulence in the incoming flow reduces the streamwise distance needed for the streaks to develop over region containing dunes, but does not affect qualitatively the transition process toward the fully-developed flow regime, nor the spacing of the streaks in the fully-developed flow region.

Description: Parlange and Brutsaert [1987] derived a modified Boussinesq equation to account for the capillary effect on watertable dynamics in unconfined aquifers. Barry et al . [1996] solved this equation subject to a periodic boundary condition. Their solution shows significant influence of capillarity on watertable fluctuations, which evolve to finite-amplitude standing waves at the high frequency limit. Here, we propose a new governing equation for the watertable, which considers both horizontal and vertical flows in an unsaturated zone of finite thickness. An approximate analytical solution for periodic watertable fluctuations based on the new equation was derived. In agreement with previous results, the analytical solution shows that the unsaturated zone's storage capacity permits watertable fluctuations to propagate more readily than predicted by the Boussinesq equation. Furthermore, the new solution reveals a capping effect of the unsaturated zone on both the amplitude and phase of the watertable fluctuations as well as the watertable overheight. Due to the finite thickness of the unsaturated zone, the capillary effect on watertable fluctuations is modified mainly with reduced amplitude damping and phase shift.

Description: [1]  The origin of crustal-scale silicic magmatism remains a matter of debate, and notable uncertainty exists concerning the physical mechanisms that drive ascent and emplacement of felsic magmas in upper crustal regions. A 2D numerical model demonstrates that injection of mantle-derived mafic magma into a partially molten hot zone in the lower crust can drive felsic magma ascent and intrusion into upper crustal levels. The injection of mafic magma induces over pressure in the reservoir, which increases crustal stresses and triggers development of brittle/plastic shear zones, and can drive significant surface uplift. The emerging topography causes a non-uniform over pressure distribution in the reservoir and can trigger felsic magma ascent along crustal shear zones. Based on systematic numerical experiments we investigate the influence of crustal strength and injection rate. The initial upper crustal strength controls the degree of crustal faulting and surface uplift and, therefore, whether felsic magma ascent can be initiated or not. The final upper crustal strength influences the depth and final style of felsic intrusion. The injection rate of mafic magma determines the time scale of overpressure growth and surface uplift stage. In contrast, the duration of the subsequent felsic ascent and intrusion emplacement stages remains nearly constant. Our results imply that mafic underplating and intrusion into the lower crust may not only be a prime control for the generation of felsic magmas in the lower crust, but may also be an important physical driving mechanism for felsic magma ascent and intrusion into upper crustal levels.

Description: Impacts of rising sea level on the hydraulic balance between aquifers and the ocean threaten fresh water resources and aquatic ecosystems along many world coastlines. Understanding the vulnerability of groundwater systems to these changes and the primary factors that determine the magnitude of system response is critical to developing effective management and adaptation plans in coastal zones. We assessed the vulnerability of two types of groundwater systems, recharge-limited and topography-limited, to changes caused by sea-level rise over a range of hydrogeologic settings. Vulnerability in this context is defined by the rate and magnitude of salinization of coastal aquifers and changes in groundwater flow to the sea. Two-dimensional variable-density groundwater flow and salt transport simulations indicate that the response of recharge-limited systems is largely minimal, whereas topography-limited systems are vulnerable for various combinations of permeability, vertical anisotropy in permeability, and recharge. World coastlines were classified according to system type as a vulnerability indicator. Results indicate that ~70% of world coastlines may be topography-limited, though variability in hydrogeologic conditions strongly affects classification. Future recharge and sea-level rise scenarios have much less influence on the proportion of vulnerable coastlines than differences in permeability, distance to a hydraulic divide, and recharge, indicating that hydrogeologic properties and setting are more important factors to consider in determining vulnerability than uncertainties in the magnitude of sea-level rise and hydrologic shifts associated with future climate change.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Ecological systems often exhibit resilient states that are maintained through negative feedbacks. In ponderosa pine forests, fire historically represented the negative feedback mechanism that maintained ecosystem resilience; fire exclusion reduced that resilience, predisposing transition to an alternative ecosystem state upon reintroduction of fire. We evaluated the effects of reintroduced frequent wildfire in unlogged, fire-excluded ponderosa pine forest in the Bob Marshall Wilderness, Montana, USA. Initial reintroduction of fire in 2003 reduced tree density and consumed surface fuels, but also stimulated establishment of a dense cohort of lodgepole pine, maintaining a trajectory towards an alternative state. Resumption of a frequent fire regime by a second fire in 2011 restored a low-density forest dominated by large-diameter ponderosa pine by eliminating many regenerating lodgepole pines and by continuing to remove surface fuels and small-diameter lodgepole pine and Douglas-fir that established during the fire suppression era. Our data demonstrate that some unlogged, fire-excluded ponderosa pine forests possess latent resilience to reintroduced fire. A passive model of simply allowing lightning-ignited fires to burn appears to be a viable approach to restoration of such forests.