ALBERT

Description: The high elevation of the Southern Puna Plateau, the widespread melting of its crust, the gap in intermediate depth seismicity and the recent eruptions of ignimbrite complexes can be explained by delamination of the lithospheric mantle beneath it. To test this hypothesis, an array consisting of 73 broad band and short period seismic stations was deployed in the region for a period of two years starting in 2007. We inverted the data using the two plane wave approach and obtained 1D and 3D Rayleigh wave phase velocities. Our dispersion curve shows that at short periods (〈70 s) the phase velocities are slightly higher than those of the Tibetan plateau and lower than those of the Anatolian plateau. At periods of 100-140 s we observe a low velocity zone that might be remnant hot asthenosphere below a flat slab (7-10 Ma). We estimate the average continental lithosphere thickness for the region to be between 100 and 130 km. Our three dimensional Rayleigh wave phase velocities show a high velocity anomaly at low frequencies (0.007, 0.008 and 0.009 Hz) slightly to the north of Cerro Galan. This would be consistent with the hypothesis of delamination in which a piece of lithosphere has detached and caused upwelling of hot asthenosphere which in turn caused widespread alkaline-collision related volcanism. This interpretation is also corroborated by our shear wave velocity model where a high velocity anomaly beneath the northern edge of Cerro Galan at 130 km depth is interpreted as the delaminated block on top of the subducting Nazca slab.

Description: Tree species are predicted to track future climate by shifting their geographic distributions, but climate-mediated migrations are not apparent in a recent continental-scale analysis. To better understand the mechanisms of a possible migration lag, we analyzed relative recruitment patterns by comparing juvenile and adult tree abundances in climate space. One would expect relative recruitment to be higher in cold and dry climates as a result of tree migration with juveniles located further poleward than adults. Alternatively, relative recruitment could be higher in warm and wet climates as a result of higher tree population turnover with increased temperature and precipitation. Using the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis data at regional scales, we jointly modeled juvenile and adult abundance distributions for 65 tree species in climate space of the eastern United States. We directly compared the optimal climate conditions for juveniles and adults, identified the climates where each species has high relative recruitment, and synthesized relative recruitment patterns across species. Results suggest that for 77% and 83% of the tree species, juveniles have higher optimal temperature and optimal precipitation, respectively, than adults. Across species, the relative recruitment pattern is dominated by relatively more abundant juveniles than adults in warm and wet climates. These different abundance-climate responses through life history are consistent with faster population turnover and inconsistent with the geographic trend of large-scale tree migration. Taken together, this juvenile-adult analysis suggests that tree species might respond to climate change by having faster turnover as dynamics respond to longer growing seasons and higher temperatures, before there is evidence of poleward migration at biogeographic scales. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Climate warming threatens to increase mass coral bleaching events, and several studies have projected the demise of tropical coral reefs this century. However, recent evidence indicates corals may be able to respond to thermal stress though adaptive processes (e.g., genetic adaptation, acclimatization, and symbiont shuffling). How these mechanisms might influence warming induced bleaching is largely unknown. This study compared how different adaptive processes could affect coral bleaching projections. We used the latest bias-corrected global sea surface temperature (SST) output from the NOAA/GFDL Earth System Model 2 (ESM2M) for the pre-industrial period though 2100 to project coral bleaching trajectories. Initial results showed that, in the absence of adaptive processes, application of a pre-industrial climatology to the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method over-predicts the present day bleaching frequency. This suggests that corals may have already responded adaptively to some warming over the industrial period. We then modified the prediction method so that the bleaching threshold either permanently increased in response to thermal history (e.g., simulating directional genetic selection) or temporarily increased for 2-10 years in response to a bleaching event (e.g., simulating symbiont shuffling). A bleaching threshold that changes relative to the preceding 60 years of thermal history reduced the frequency of mass bleaching events by 20-80% compared with the ‘no adaptive response’ prediction model by 2100, depending on the emissions scenario. When both types of adaptive responses were applied, up to 14% more reef cells avoided high frequency bleaching by 2100. However, temporary increases in bleaching thresholds alone only delayed the occurrence of high frequency bleaching by ~10 years in all but the lowest emissions scenario. Future research should test the rate and limit of different adaptive responses for coral species across latitudes and ocean basins to determine if and how much corals can respond to increasing thermal stress. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The snow-masking effect of vegetation exerts strong control on albedo in northern high latitude ecosystems. Large-scale changes in the distribution and stature of vegetation in this region will thus have important feedbacks to climate. The snow-albedo feedback is controlled largely by the contrast between snow-covered and snow-free albedo (Δα), which influences predictions of future warming in coupled climate models, despite being poorly constrained at seasonal and century time scales. Here we compare satellite observations and coupled climate model representations of albedo and tree cover for the boreal and Arctic region. Our analyses reveal consistent declines in albedo with increasing tree cover, occurring south of latitudinal tree line, that are poorly represented in coupled climate models. Observed relationships between albedo and tree cover differ substantially between snow-covered and snow-free periods, and among plant functional type (PFT). Tree cover in models varies widely but surprisingly does not correlate well with model albedo. Further, our results demonstrate a relationship between tree cover and snow-albedo feedback that may be used to accurately constrain high latitude albedo feedbacks in coupled climate models under current and future vegetation distributions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Because of global land surface warming, extreme temperature events are expected to occur more often and more intensely, affecting the growth and development of the major cereal crops in several ways, thus affecting the production component of food security. In this paper, we have identified rice and maize crop responses to temperature in different, but consistent, phenological phases and development stages. A literature review and data compilation of around 140 scientific articles have determined the key temperature thresholds and response to extreme temperature effects for rice and maize, complementing an earlier study on wheat. Lethal temperatures and cardinal temperatures, together with error estimates, have been identified for phenological phases and development stages. Following the methodology of previous work, we have collected and statistically analysed temperature thresholds of the three crops for the key physiological processes such as leaf initiation, shoot growth and root growth and for the most susceptible phenological phases such as sowing to emergence, anthesis and grain filling. Our summary shows that cardinal temperatures are conservative between studies and are seemingly well-defined in all three crops. Anthesis and ripening are the most sensitive temperature stages in rice as well as in wheat and maize. We call for further experimental studies of the effects of transgressing threshold temperatures so such responses can be included into crop impact and adaptation models. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Will warming lead to an increased use of older soil organic carbon (SOC) by microbial communities, thereby inducing C losses from C-rich alpine soils? We studied soil microbial community composition, activity and substrate use after three and four years of soil warming (+4°C, 2007-2010) at the alpine treeline in Switzerland. The warming experiment was nested in a free air CO 2 enrichment experiment using depleted 13 CO 2 (δ 13 C = –30‰, 2001-2009). We traced this depleted 13 C label in phospholipid fatty acids (PLFA) of the organic layer (0-5 cm soil depth) and in C mineralized from root-free soils to distinguish substrate ages used by soil microorganisms: fixed before 2001 (“old”), from 2001 to 2009 (“new”) or in 2010 (“recent”). Warming induced a sustained stimulation of soil respiration (+38%) without decline in mineralizable SOC. PLFA concentrations did not reveal changes in microbial community composition due to soil warming, but soil microbial metabolic activity was stimulated (+66%). Warming decreased the amount of new and recent C in the fungal biomarker 18:2ω6,9 and the amount of new C mineralized from root-free soils, implying a shift in microbial substrate use towards a greater use of old SOC. This shift in substrate use could indicate an imbalance between C inputs and outputs, which could eventually decrease SOC storage in this alpine ecosystem. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: At present continental to global scale flood forecasting predicts at a point discharge, with little attention to detail and accuracy of local scale inundation predictions. Yet, inundation variables are of interest and all flood impacts are inherently local in nature. This paper proposes a large scale flood inundation ensemble forecasting model that uses best available data and modeling approaches in data scarce areas. The model was built for the Lower Zambezi River to demonstrate current flood inundation forecasting capabilities in large data-scarce regions. ECMWF ensemble forecast (ENS) data were used to force the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) hydrological model, which simulated and routed daily flows to the input boundary locations of a 2-D hydrodynamic model. Efficient hydrodynamic modeling over large areas still requires model grid resolutions that are typically larger than the width of channels that play a key a role in flood wave propagation. We therefore employed a novel sub-grid channel scheme to describe the river network in detail whilst representing the floodplain at an appropriate scale. The modeling system was calibrated using channel water levels from satellite laser altimetry and then applied to predict the February 2007 Mozambique floods. Model evaluation showed that simulated flood edge cells were within a distance of between one and two model resolutions compared to an observed flood edge and inundation area agreement was on average 86%. Our study highlights that physically plausible parameter values and satisfactory performance can be achieved at spatial scales ranging from tens to several hundreds of thousands of km 2 and at model grid resolutions up to several km 2 .

Description: A class of capillary flows in unsaturated porous media is characterized by quasi-steady viscous flow confined behind curved air-water interfaces and within liquid bodies held by capillary forces along crevices and grain contacts. The geometry of the connected capillary liquid network within the pore space resembles channels that form between adjacent bubbles in foam (Plateau borders) with solid grains representing gas bubbles in foam. For simplified channel geometry we combine expressions for viscous flow with continuity considerations to describe the evolution of the channels cross-sectional area during gravity drainage. This formulation enables modeling of unsaturated flow without invoking the Richards equation and associated hydraulic functions. We adapt a formalism originally developed for foam “free drainage” (drainage under gravity) or “forced drainage” (infiltration front motion) to a class of unsaturated flows in porous media that require a few input parameters only (mean channel corner angle, air entry value and porosity) for certain initial and boundary conditions. We demonstrate that the reduction in capillary channel cross section yields a consistent description of self-regulating internal fluxes towards attainment of the so-called “field capacity” in soil and provides an alternative method for interpretation of outflow experiments for prescribed pressure boundary conditions. Additionally, the geometrically-explicit formulation provides a more intuitive picture of capillary flows across textural boundaries (changes in channel cross-section and number of channels). The foam drainage methodology expands the range of tools available for analyses of unsaturated flow processes and offers more realistic links between liquid configuration and flow dynamics in unsaturated porous media.

Description: Synthetic streamflows at different sites in a river basin are needed for planning, operation and management of water resources projects. Modeling the temporal and spatial dependence structure of monthly streamflow at different sites is generally required. In this study, the maximum entropy copula method is proposed for multisite monthly streamflow simulation, in which the temporal and spatial dependence structure is imposed as constraints to derive the maximum entropy copula. The monthly streamflows at different sites are then generated by sampling from the conditional distribution. A case study for the generation of monthly streamflow at three sites in the Colorado River basin illustrates the application of the proposed method. Simulated streamflow from the maximum entropy copula is in satisfactory agreement with observed streamflow.

Description: The Krycklan Catchment Study (KCS) provides a unique field infrastructure for hillslope to landscape-scale research on short and long-term ecosystem dynamics in boreal landscapes. The site is designed for process-based research assessing the role of external drivers including forest management, climate change, and long-range pollutant transport on forests, mires, soils, streams, lakes and groundwater. The over-arching objectives of KCS are to (1) provide a state-of-the-art infrastructure for experimental and hypothesis driven research, (2) maintain a collection of high quality, long-term climatic, biogeochemical, hydrological and environmental data, and (3) support the development of models and guidelines for research, policy and management.

Description: 3-D Hydraulic Tomography (3-D HT) is a method for aquifer characterization whereby the 3-D spatial distribution of aquifer flow parameters (primarily hydraulic conductivity, K) is estimated by joint inversion of head change data from multiple partially-penetrating pumping tests. While performance of 3-D HT has been studied extensively in numerical experiments, few field studies have demonstrated the real-world performance of 3-D HT. Here we report on a 3-D transient hydraulic tomography (3-D THT) field experiment at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site which is different from prior approaches in that it represents a “baseline” analysis of 3-D THT performance using only a single arrangement of a central pumping well and 5 observation wells with nearly complete pumping and observation coverage at 1m intervals. We jointly analyze all pumping tests using a geostatistical approach based on the quasi-linear estimator of kitanidis [1995]. We reanalyze the system after progressively removing pumping and/or observation intervals; significant progressive loss of information about heterogeneity is quantified as reduced variance of the K field overall, reduced correlation with slug test K estimates at wells, and reduced ability to accurately predict independent pumping tests. We verify that imaging accuracy is strongly improved by pumping and observational densities comparable to the aquifer heterogeneity geostatistical correlation lengths. Discrepancies between K profiles at wells, as obtained from HT and slug tests, are greatest at the tops and bottoms of wells where HT observation coverage was lacking.

Description: Chlorine isotope compositions of high-pressure (~2.3 GPa) serpentinite, rodingite, and hydrothermally altered oceanic crust (AOC) differ significantly from high- and ultrahigh-pressure (〉3.2 GPa) metasedimentary rocks in the Aosta region, Italy. Texturally early serpentinites, rodingites, and AOC have bulk δ 37 Cl values indistinguishable from those of modern seafloor analogues (δ 37 Cl = -1.0 to +1.0‰). In contrast, serpentinites and AOC samples that recrystallized during exhumation have low δ 37 Cl values (-2.7 to -0.5‰); 37 Cl depletion correlates with progressive changes in bulk chemistry. HP/UHP metasediments have low δ 37 Cl values (median = -2.5‰) that differ statistically from modern marine sediments (median = -0.6‰). Cl in metasedimentary rocks is concentrated in texturally early minerals, indicating modification of seafloor compositions early in the subduction history. The data constrain fluid sources during both subduction- and exhumation-related phases of fluid-rock interaction: (1) Marine sediments at the top of the downgoing plate likely interacted with isotopically light pore fluids from the accretionary wedge in the early stages of subduction. (2) No pervasive interaction with externally derived fluid occurred during subsequent subduction to the maximum depths of burial. (3) Localized mixing between serpentinites and fluids released by previously isotopically modified metasediments occurred during exhumation in the subduction channel. Most samples, however, preserved protolith signatures during subduction to near-arc depths.

Description: Circumpolar expansion of tall shrubs and trees into Arctic tundra is widely thought to be occurring as a result of recent climate warming, but little quantitative evidence exists for northern Siberia, which encompasses the world's largest forest-tundra ecotonal belt. We quantified changes in tall shrub and tree canopy cover in eleven, widely-distributed Siberian ecotonal landscapes by comparing very-high-resolution photography from the Cold War-era “Gambit” and “Corona” satellite surveillance systems (1965-1969) with modern imagery. We also analyzed within-landscape patterns of vegetation change to evaluate the susceptibility of different landscape components to tall shrub and tree increase. The total cover of tall shrubs and trees increased in nine of eleven ecotones. In northwest Siberia, alder ( Alnus ) shrubland cover increased 5.3 – 25.9% in five ecotones. In Taymyr and Yakutia, larch ( Larix ) cover increased 3.0 – 6.7% within three ecotones, but declined 16.8% at a fourth ecotone due to thaw of ice-rich permafrost. In Chukotka, the total cover of alder and dwarf pine ( Pinus ) increased 6.1% within one ecotone and was little-changed at a second ecotone. Within most landscapes, shrub and tree increase was linked to specific geomorphic settings, especially those with active disturbance regimes such as permafrost patterned-ground, floodplains, and colluvial hillslopes. Mean summer temperatures increased at most ecotones since the mid-1960s, but rates of shrub and tree canopy cover expansion were not strongly correlated with temperature trends and were better correlated with mean annual precipitation. We conclude that shrub and tree cover is increasing in tundra ecotones across most of northern Siberia, but rates of increase vary widely regionally and at the landscape-scale. Our results indicate that extensive changes can occur within decades in moist, shrub-dominated ecotones, as in northwest Siberia, while changes are likely to occur much more slowly in the highly continental, larch-dominated ecotones of central and eastern Siberia. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The adaptation of different species to warming temperatures has been increasingly studied. Moose ( Alces alces ) is the largest of the ungulate species occupying the northern latitudes across the globe, and in Finland it is the most important game species. It is very well adapted to severe cold temperatures, but has a relatively low tolerance to warm temperatures. Previous studies have documented changes in habitat use by moose due to high temperatures. In many of these studies the used areas have been classified according to how much thermal cover they were assumed to offer based on satellite/aerial imagery data. Here, we identified the vegetation structure in the areas used by moose under different thermal conditions. For this purpose we used airborne laser scanning (ALS) data extracted from the locations of GPS-collared moose. This provided us with detailed information about the relationships between moose and the structure of forests it uses in different thermal conditions and we were therefore able to determine and differentiate between the canopy structures at locations occupied by moose during different thermal conditions. We also discovered a threshold beyond which moose behaviour began to change significantly: as day temperatures began to reach 20 ○ C and higher, the search for areas with higher and denser canopies during daytime became evident. The difference was clear when compared to habitat use at lower temperatures, and was so strong that it provides supporting evidence to previous studies, suggesting that moose are able to modify their behaviour to cope with high temperatures, but also that the species is likely to be affected by warming climate. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Mountain ecosystems are particularly susceptible to climate change. Characterizing intraspecific variation of alpine plants along elevational gradients is crucial for estimating their vulnerability to predicted changes. Environmental conditions vary with elevation, which might influence plastic responses and affect selection pressures that lead to local adaptation. Thus, local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity among low and high elevation plant populations in response to climate, soil and other factors associated with elevational gradients might underlie different responses of these populations to climate warming. Using a transplant experiment along an elevational gradient, we investigated reproductive phenology, growth and reproduction of the nutrient-poor grassland species Ranunculus bulbosus , Trifolium montanum , and Briza media . Seeds were collected from low and high elevation source populations across the Swiss Alps and grown in nine common gardens at three different elevations with two different soil depths. Despite genetic differentiation in some traits, the results revealed no indication of local adaptation to the elevation of population origin. Reproductive phenology was advanced at lower elevation in low and high elevation populations of all three species. Growth and reproduction of T. montanum and B. media were rarely affected by garden elevation and soil depth. In R. bulbosus , however, growth decreased and reproductive investment increased at higher elevation. Furthermore, soil depth influenced growth and reproduction of low elevation R. bulbosus populations. We found no evidence for local adaptation to elevation of origin and hardly any differences in the responses of low and high elevation populations. However, the consistent advanced reproductive phenology observed in all three species shows that they have the potential to plastically respond to environmental variation. We conclude that populations might not be forced to migrate to higher elevations as a consequence of climate warming, as plasticity will buffer the detrimental effects of climate change in the three investigated nutrient-poor grassland species. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The impact of climate change on the stability of soil organic carbon (SOC) remains a major source of uncertainty in predicting future changes in atmospheric CO 2 levels. One unsettled issue is whether the mineralization response to temperature depends on SOC mineralization rate. Long-term (〉25 years) bare fallow experiments (LTBF) in which the soil is kept free of any vegetation and organic inputs, and their associated archives of soil samples represent a unique research platform to examine this issue as with increasing duration of fallow, the lability of remaining total SOC decreases. We retrieved soils from LTBF experiments situated at Askov (Denmark), Grignon (France), Ultuna (Sweden) and Versailles (France) and sampled at the start of the experiments and after 25, 50, 52, and 79 years of bare fallow, respectively. Soils were incubated at 4, 12, 20 and 35 °C and the evolved CO 2 monitored. The apparent activation energy ( Ea ) of SOC was then calculated for similar loss of CO 2 at the different temperatures. The Ea was always higher for samples taken at the end of the bare-fallow period, implying a higher temperature sensitivity of stable C than of labile C. Our results provide strong evidence for a general relationship between temperature sensitivity and SOC stability upon which significant improvements in predictive models could be based. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: We have measured Ni, Ca, and Mn in olivine phenocrysts from volcanoes in the Galápagos Archipelago to infer the mantle source lithologies. Results show that peridotite is the dominant source lithology for Fernandina, Floreana, Genovesa, Wolf Island, and Darwin Island. These volcanoes largely characterize the PLUME, WD, FLO and DUM Nd, Sr, and Pb isotopic endmembers of Harpp and White (2001). Volcan Wolf, Alcedo, Marchena, and Cerro Azul, also produced from the melting of peridotite sources, have isotopic compositions that can be defined by mixing of the 4 isotopic endmembers. Our analysis suggests that peridotite was present in the sources of the volcanoes covered in this study and therefore is the dominant source lithology of the Galápagos plume. Pyroxenite melting is generally focused in two isotopically distinct domains: Roca Redonda, Volcan Ecuador, and Sierra Negra in the enriched western part of the archipelago, and Santiago, Santa Cruz, and Santa Fe in the depleted east. One implication of this finding is that the Western and Eastern Pyroxenite Domains represent two separate bodies of recycled crust within the Galápagos mantle plume. Furthermore, both isotopically enriched and depleted domains of the archipelago were generated from mixtures of peridotite and pyroxenite. This suggests that there is no relationship between the source lithology of the Galápagos plume and its isotopic characteristics. The identification of peridotite source melting in volcanoes with isotopic characteristics that have been attributed to recycled crust points to the importance of mixing in OIB genesis, consistent with studies in the Canary Islands.

Description: The temperature dependence of aerobic scope has been suggested to be a major determinant of how marine animals will cope with future rises in environmental temperature. Here we present data suggesting that in some animals, the temperature dependence of anaerobic scope (i.e. the capacity for surviving severe hypoxia) may determine present-day latitudinal distributions and potential for persistence in a warmer future. As a model for investigating the role of anaerobic scope, we studied two sibling species of coral-dwelling gobies, Gobiodon histrio and G. erythrospilus , with different latitudinal distributions, but which overlap in equal abundance at Lizard Island (14°40'S) on the Great Barrier Reef. These species did not differ in the temperature dependence of resting oxygen consumption or critical oxygen concentration (the lowest oxygen level where resting oxygen consumption can be maintained). By contrast, the more equatorial species ( G. histrio ) had a better capacity to endure anaerobic conditions at oxygen levels below the critical oxygen concentration at the high temperatures (32 – 33 °C) more likely to occur near the equator, or in a warmer future. These results suggest that anaerobic scope, in addition to aerobic scope, could be important in determining the impacts of global warming on some marine animals. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Most North American forests are at some stage of post-disturbance regrowth, subject to a changing climate, and exhibit growth and mortality patterns that may not be closely coupled to annual environmental conditions. Distinguishing the possibly interacting effects of these processes is necessary to put short-term studies in a longer-term context, and particularly important for the carbon-dense, fire-prone boreal forest. The goals of this study were to combine dendrochronological sampling, inventory records, and machine-learning algorithms to understand how tree growth and death have changed at one highly studied site (Northern Old Black Spruce, NOBS) in the central Canadian boreal forest. Over the 1999-2012 inventory period, mean tree diameter increased even as stand density and basal area declined significantly. Tree mortality averaged 1.4±0.6% yr −1 , with most mortality occurring in medium-sized trees; new recruitment was minimal. There have been at least two, and probably three, significant influxes of new trees since stand initiation, but none in recent decades. A combined tree ring chronology constructed from sampling in 2001, 2004, and 2012 showed several periods of extreme growth depression, with increased mortality lagging depressed growth by ~5 years. Higher minimum and maximum air temperatures exerted a negative influence on tree growth, while precipitation and climate moisture index had a positive effect; both current- and previous-year data exerted significant effects. Models based on these variables explained 23-44% of the ring-width variability. We suggest that past climate extremes led to significant mortality still visible in the current forest structure, with decadal dynamics superimposed on slower patterns of fire and succession. These results have significant implications for our understanding of previous work at NOBS, the carbon sequestration capability of old-growth stands in a disturbance-prone landscape, and the sustainable management of regional forests in a changing climate. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The 20th century was a pivotal period at high northern latitudes as it marked the onset of a rapid climatic warming brought on by major anthropogenic changes in global atmospheric composition. In parallel, Arctic sea ice extent has been decreasing over the period of available satellite data record. Here we document how these changes influenced vegetation productivity in adjacent eastern boreal North America. To do this, we used normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, model simulations of net primary productivity (NPP), and tree-ring width measurements covering the last 300 years. Climatic and proxy-climatic datasets were used to explore the relationships between vegetation productivity and Arctic sea ice concentration and extent, and temperatures. Results indicate that an unusually large amount of black spruce ( Picea mariana ) trees entered into a period of growth decline during the late 20th century (68% of sampled trees; n = 724 cross-sections of age 〉 70 years). This finding is coherent with evidence encoded in NDVI and simulated NPP data. Analyses of climatic and vegetation productivity relationships indicate that the influence of recent climatic changes in the studied forests has been via the enhanced moisture stress (i.e. greater water demands) and autotrophic respiration amplified by the declining sea ice concentration in the Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait. The recent decline strongly contrasts with other growth reduction events that occurred during the 19 th century, which were associated with cooling and high sea ice severity. The recent decline of vegetation productivity is the first one to occur under circumstances related to excess heat in a 300-year period, and further culminates with an intensifying wildfire regime in the region. Our results concur with observations from other forest ecosystems about intensifying temperature-driven drought stress and tree mortality with ongoing climatic changes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Probabilistic estimates of future water levels and river discharge are usually simulated with hydrologic models using ensemble weather forecasts as main inputs. As hydrologic models are imperfect and the meteorological ensembles tend to be biased and underdispersed, the ensemble forecasts for river runoff typically are biased and underdispersed, too. Thus, in order to achieve both reliable and sharp predictions statistical post-processing is required. In this work Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is applied to statistically post-process ensemble runoff raw forecasts for a catchment in Switzerland, at lead-times ranging from 1 to 240 hours. The raw forecasts have been obtained using deterministic and ensemble forcing meteorological models with different forecast lead-time ranges. First, BMA is applied based on mixtures of univariate normal distributions, subject to the assumption of independence between distinct lead-times. Then, the independence assumption is relaxed in order to estimate multivariate runoff forecasts over the entire range of lead-times simultaneously, based on a BMA version that uses multivariate normal distributions. Since river runoff is a highly skewed variable, Box-Cox transformations are applied in order to achieve approximate normality. Both univariate and multivariate BMA approaches are able to generate well calibrated probabilistic forecasts that are considerably sharper than climatological forecasts. Additionally, multivariate BMA provides a promising approach for incorporating temporal dependencies into the post-processed forecasts. Its major advantage against univariate BMA is an increase in reliability when the forecast system is changing due to model availability.

Description: Paleomagnetic analysis and radiocarbon dating of an expanded Holocene deep-sea sediment sequence recovered by Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 303 from Labrador Sea Site U1305 (Lat: 57°28.5 N, Long. 48°31.8 W, water depth 3459 m) provides insights into mechanisms that drive both paleomagnetic secular variation (PSV) and magnetization acquisition in deep-sea sediments. Seventeen radiocarbon dates on planktonic foraminifera define postglacial (c. 8 ka) sedimentation rates as ranging from 35 to 〉 90 cm/kyr. Alternating field (AF) demagnetization of u-channel samples show that these homogeneous sediments preserve a strong, stable, and consistently well-defined component magnetization. Normalized remanence records pass reliability criteria for relative paleointensity (RPI) estimates. Assuming that the age of magnetization is most accurately defined by well dated PSV records with the highest sedimentation rates, allows us to estimate and correct for temporal offsets at Site U1305 interpreted to result from post-depositional remanence acquisition at a depth of ~ 20 cm. Comparisons indicate that the northern North Atlantic PSV and RPI records are more consistent with European than North American records, and the evolution of virtual geomagnetic poles (VGP) are temporally and longitudinally similar to global reconstructions, though with much larger latitudinal variation. The largest deviations from a geocentric axial dipole (GAD) are observed during times of the highest intensities, in contrast to the usual assumption. These observations are consistent with the idea that PSV in the North Atlantic and elsewhere during the Holocene results from temporal oscillations of high latitude flux concentrations at a few recurrent locations.

Description: We derive a series solution for the nonlinear Boussinesq equation in terms of the similarity variable of the Boltzmann transformation in a semi-infinite domain. The first few coefficients of the series have been known for a long time, having been obtained by a truncated inversion of the series solution of the Blasius equation, but no direct recurrence relation was known for the complete series representing the solution of the Boussinesq equation. The series turns out to have a finite radius of convergence, which we estimate with a numerical complex-plane integration method that identifies the singularities of the solution when the equation is extended to the complex plane. The homogeneous condition at the origin produces a singularity which complicates numerical solutions with Runge-Kutta methods. We present two variable transformations that circumvent the problem and that are best suited to the complex-variable and the real-variable versions of the equation, respectively. Using those tools, an approximate solution accurate to 1.75 × 10 -10 and valid for the entire positive real axis is then developed by matching a Padé approximant of the exact series and an asymptotic solution (to overcome the restriction imposed by the finite radius of convergence of the series), along the same lines of the expression proposed by Hogarth and Parlange [1999]. The accuracies of all of the existing and the newly proposed solutions are obtained.

Description: Field sampling in unwadeable and flashy flood events encounters the problem that lateral variability of flow hydraulics and sediment transport cannot be captured adequately, and there is also an accuracy problem because parameters change while being measured. Moreover, event based gravel-sand mixed transport data in rapidly changing conditions are largely missing, in particular for gravel-bed rivers in small catchments. In this study, field measurements of bed load, suspended load, flow velocities, water depths and cross section geometry were collected during flood events at a monitoring station near the mouth of the Versilia river, Italy. Since the observed hydrographs are characterized by short durations, to the order of a few hours, an analysis of the lateral and temporal flow variability was carried out to enable the design of a sampling strategy and to minimize the errors created by the time variations of discharge associated with unsteady flow conditions. The measurements were interpreted using a 1D hydro-morphodynamic numerical model simulating the dynamics of flow and sediment discharges during a flood event for a given return period. The flow and sediment rating curves were then developed through an integrated approach combining different methodologies: field measurements, laboratory analyses and mathematical modeling. The developed approach allows one to capture the main physical mechanisms associated to the transport of sand–gravel mixtures, such as selective transport, and the hysteretic behaviour of sediment transport produced by rapid and intense flood events.

Description: Successful species interactions require that both partners share a similar cue. For many species, spring warming acts as a shared signal to synchronize mutualist behaviors. Spring flowering plants and the ants that disperse their seeds respond to warming temperatures so that ants forage when plants drop seeds. However, where warm-adapted ants replace cold-adapted ants, changes in this timing might leave early seeds stranded without a disperser. We investigate plant seed dispersal south and north of a distinct boundary between warm- and cold-adapted ants to determine if changes in the ant species influence local plant dispersal. The warm-adapted ants forage much later than the cold-adapted ants, and so we first assess natural populations of early and late blooming plants. We then transplant these plants south and north of the ant boundary to test whether distinct ant climate requirements disrupt the ant-plant mutualism. Whereas the early blooming plant's inability to synchronize with the warm-adapted ant leaves its populations clumped and patchy and its seedlings clustered around the parents in natural populations, when transplanted into the range of the cold-adapted ant, effective seed dispersal recovers. In contrast, the mutualism persists for the later blooming plant regardless of location because it sets seed later in spring when both warm- and cold-adapted ant species forage, resulting in effective seed dispersal. These results indicate that the climate response of species interactions, not just the species themselves, is integral in understanding ecological responses to a changing climate. Data linking phenological synchrony and dispersal are rare, and these results suggest a viable mechanism by which a species’ range is limited more by biotic than abiotic interactions – despite the general assumption that biotic influences are buried within larger climate drivers. These results show that biotic partner can be as fundamental a niche requirement as abiotic resources. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Increasing ocean temperatures and strengthening boundary currents have caused the poleward migration of many marine species. Cubozoan jellyfish known to cause Irukandji syndrome have historically been confined to tropical waters but may be expanding into sub-tropical regions. Here we examine the interactive effects of warming and acidification on the population dynamics of polyps of an Irukandji jellyfish, Alatina nr mordens, and the formation of statoliths in newly metamorphosed medusae, to determine if this jellyfish could tolerate future conditions predicted for southeast Queensland (SEQ), Australia. Two experiments, examining the orthogonal factors of temperature and pH were undertaken. Experiment 1 mimicked the current, ca. 2050 and ca. 2100 summer temperature and pH conditions predicted for SEQ using A1F1 scenarios (temperature: 25, 27, 29°C; pH: 7.9, 7.8, 7.6) and Experiment 2 mimicked current and future winter conditions (18 and 22°C, pH 7.9, 7.8, 7.6). All polyps in Experiment 1 survived and budded. Fewer polyps budded in the lower pH treatments but patterns varied slightly among temperature treatments. Statoliths at pH 7.6 were 24% narrower than those at pH 7.8 and 7.9. Most polyps survived the winter conditions mimicked by Experiment 2 but only polyps in the 22°C, pH 7.9 treatment increased significantly. The current absence of A . nr mordens medusae in SEQ, despite the polyps’ ability to tolerate the current temperature and pH conditions, suggests that ecological, rather than abiotic factors currently limit their distribution. Observations that budding was lower under low pH treatments suggest that rates of asexual reproduction will likely be much slower in the future. We consider that A . nr mordens polyps are likely to tolerate future conditions but are unlikely to thrive in the long term. However, if polyps can overcome potential ecological boundaries and acidification proceeds slowly A . nr mordens could expand polewards in the short-term. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Soil CO 2 efflux ( F soil ) is the largest source of carbon from forests and reflects primary productivity as well as how carbon is allocated within forest ecosystems. Through early stages of stand development, both elevated [CO 2 ] and availability of soil nitrogen (N; sum of mineralization, deposition, and fixation) have been shown to increase gross primary productivity, but the long-term effects of these factors on F soil are less clear. Expanding on previous studies at the Duke Free Air CO 2 Enrichment (FACE) site, we quantified the effects of elevated [CO 2 ] and N fertilization on F soil using daily measurements from automated chambers over 10 years. Consistent with previous results, compared to ambient-unfertilized plots, annual F soil increased under elevated [CO 2 ] (~17%) and decreased with N (~21%). N fertilization under elevated [CO 2 ] reduced F soil to values similar to untreated plots. Over the study period, base respiration rates increased with leaf productivity but declined after productivity saturated. Despite treatment-induced differences in aboveground biomass, soil temperature and water content were similar among treatments. Inter-annually, low soil water content decreased annual F soil from potential values – estimated based on temperature alone assuming non-limiting soil water content – by ~0.7% per 1.0% reduction in relative extractable water. This effect was only slightly ameliorated by elevated [CO 2 ]. Variability of soil N availability among plots accounted for the spatial variability of F soil , showing a decrease of ~114 g C m -2 y -1 per 1 g m -2 increase in soil N availability, with consistently higher F soil in elevated [CO 2 ] plots ~127 g C per 100 ppm [CO 2 ] over the +200 ppm enrichment. Altogether, reflecting increased belowground carbon partitioning in response to greater plant nutritional needs, the effects of elevated [CO 2 ] and N fertilization on F soil in this stand are sustained beyond the early stages of stand development and through stabilization of annual foliage production. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: To meet growing global food demand with limited land and reduced environmental impact, agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are increasingly evaluated with respect to crop productivity, i.e. on a yield-scaled as opposed to area basis. Here, we compiled available field data on CH 4 and N 2 O emissions from rice production systems to test the hypothesis that in response to fertilizer nitrogen (N) addition, yield-scaled global warming potential (GWP) will be minimized at N rates that maximize yields. Within each study, yield N surplus was calculated to estimate deficit or excess N application rates with respect to the optimal N rate (defined as the N rate at which maximum yield was achieved). Relationships between yield N surplus and GHG emissions were assessed using linear and nonlinear mixed-effects models. Results indicate that yields increased moving from deficit to optimal N rates. At N rates contributing to a yield N surplus, N 2 O and yield-scaled N 2 O emissions increased exponentially. In contrast, CH 4 emissions were not impacted by N inputs. Accordingly, yield-scaled CH 4 emissions decreased with N addition. Overall, yield-scaled GWP was minimized at optimal N rates, decreasing by 21% compared to treatments without N addition. These results are unique compared to aerobic cropping systems in which N 2 O emissions are the primary contributor to GWP, meaning yield-scaled GWP may not necessarily decrease for aerobic crops when yields are optimized by N fertilizer additions. Balancing gains in agricultural productivity with climate change concerns, this work supports the concept that high rice yields can be achieved with minimal yield-scaled GWP through optimal N application rates. Moreover, additional improvements in N use efficiency may further reduce yield-scaled GWP, thereby strengthening the economic and environmental sustainability of rice systems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has the potential to disrupt the agricultural sector from local to global scales. This article introduces the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to engage a global network of crop modelers to explore the impacts of climate change via an investigation of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO 2 ]), temperature, and water. As a demonstration of the C3MP protocols and enabled analyses, we apply the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO-Peanut crop model for Henry County, Alabama, to evaluate responses to the range of plausible [CO 2 ], temperature changes, and precipitation changes projected by climate models out to the end of the 21 st century. These sensitivity tests are used to derive crop model emulators that estimate changes in mean yield and the coefficient of variation for seasonal yields across a broad range of climate conditions, reproducing mean yields from sensitivity test simulations with deviations of ~2% for rainfed conditions. We apply these statistical emulators to investigate how peanuts respond to projections from various global climate models, time periods, and emissions scenarios, finding a robust projection of modest (〈10%) median yield losses in the middle of the 21 st century accelerating to more severe (〉20%) losses and larger uncertainty at the end of the century under the more severe representative concentration pathway 8.5. This projection is not substantially altered by the selection of the AgMERRA global gridded climate dataset rather than the local historical observations, differences between the Third and Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), or the use of the delta method of climate impacts analysis rather than the C3MP impacts response surface and emulator approach. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Large-scale, long-term FACE (Free Air CO 2 -enrichment) experiments indicate that increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations will influence forest C cycling in unpredictable ways. It has been recently suggested that responses of mycorrhizal fungi could determine whether forest NPP (net primary production) is increased by elevated CO 2 over long time periods and if forests soils will function as sources or sinks of C in the future. We studied the dynamic responses of ectomycorrhizae to N fertilization and atmospheric CO 2 -enrichment at the Duke FACE experiment using minirhizotrons over a six year period (2005-2010). Stimulation of mycorrhizal production by elevated CO 2 was observed during only one (2007) of six years. This increased the standing crop of mycorrhizal tips during 2007 and 2008; during 2008, significantly higher mortality returned standing crop to ambient levels for the remainder of the experiment. It is therefore unlikely that increased production of mycorrhizal tips can explain the lack of progressive nitrogen limitations and associated increases in N uptake observed in CO 2 -enriched plots at this site. Fertilization generally decreased tree reliance on mycorrhizae as tip production declined with the addition of nitrogen as has been shown in many other studies. Annual NPP of mycorrhizal tips was greatest during years with warm January temperatures and during years with cool spring temperatures. A 2° C increase in average late spring temperatures (May and June) decreased annual production of mycorrhizal root tip length by 50%. This has important implications for ecosystem function in a warmer world in addition to potential for forest soils to sequester atmospheric C. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Permafrost thaw in the Arctic driven by climate change is mobilizing ancient terrigenous organic carbon (OC) into fluvial networks. Understanding the controls on metabolism of this OC is imperative for assessing its role with respect to climate feedbacks. In this study we examined the effect of inorganic nutrient supply and dissolved organic matter (DOM) composition on aquatic extracellular enzyme activities (EEAs) in waters draining the Kolyma River Basin (Siberia), including permafrost derived OC. Reducing the phenolic content of the DOM pool resulted in dramatic increases in hydrolase EEAs (e.g. phosphatase activity increased 〉 28 fold) supporting the idea that high concentrations of polyphenolic compounds in DOM (e.g. plant structural tissues) inhibit enzyme synthesis or activity, limiting OC degradation. EEAs were significantly more responsive to inorganic nutrient additions only after phenolic inhibition was experimentally removed. In controlled mixtures of modern OC and thawed permafrost endmember OC sources, respiration rates per unit dissolved OC were 1.3 – 1.6 times higher in waters containing ancient carbon, suggesting that permafrost derived OC was more available for microbial mineralization. In addition, waters containing ancient permafrost derived OC supported elevated phosphatase and glucosidase activities. Based on these combined results, we propose that both composition and nutrient availability regulates DOM metabolism in Arctic aquatic ecosystems. Our empirical findings are incorporated into a mechanistic conceptual model highlighting two key enzymatic processes in the mineralization of riverine OM: 1) the role of phenol oxidase activity in reducing inhibitory phenolic compounds; and 2) the role of phosphatase in mobilizing organic P. Permafrost derived DOM degradation was less constrained by this initial “phenolic-OM” inhibition; thus, informing reports of high biological availability of ancient, permafrost derived DOM with clear ramifications for its metabolism in fluvial networks and feedbacks to climate. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Ecosystem functioning is simultaneously affected by changes in community composition and environmental change such as increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and subsequent ocean acidification. However, it largely remains uncertain how the effects of these factors compare to each other. Addressing this question, we experimentally tested the hypothesis that initial community composition and elevated CO 2 are equally important to the regulation of phytoplankton biomass. We full-factorially exposed three compositionally different marine phytoplankton communities to two different CO 2 levels and examined the effects and relative importance (ω 2 ) of the two factors and their interaction on phytoplankton biomass at bloom peak. The results showed that initial community composition had a significantly greater impact than elevated CO 2 on phytoplankton biomass, which varied largely among communities. We suggest that the different initial ratios between cyanobacteria, diatoms, and dinoflagellates might be the key for the varying competitive and thus functional outcome among communities. Furthermore, the results showed that depending on initial community composition elevated CO 2 selected for larger sized diatoms, which led to increased total phytoplankton biomass. Our study highlights the relevance of initial community composition, which strongly drives the functional outcome, when assessing impacts of climate change on ecosystem functioning. In particular, the increase in phytoplankton biomass driven by the gain of larger sized diatoms in response to elevated CO 2 potentially has strong implications for nutrient cycling and carbon export in future oceans. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Less than half of anthropogenic carbon emissions are accumulating in the atmosphere, due to large net fluxes into both the oceans and the land (Le Queré et al., 2012). The land sink in particular has increased markedly, doubling in strength since the 1960's, to reach 26 petagrams of carbon in the latest decade. However, the location and drivers of this large terrestrial sink are still relatively poorly constrained by atmospheric measurements (Ciais et al. 2013). Pan et al. (2011) recently utilised 〉1 million forest inventory plots to provide summaries of forest carbon stocks, and the first global bottom-up estimates of carbon fluxes for the world's forest biomes for the period 1990-2007. One key result was that almost all the residual global terrestrial carbon sink (i.e. carbon uptake after accounting for land use change), some 2.4 ± 0.4 Pg of carbon per year, is located in the world's established forests (Pan et al., 2011). The sink is distributed worldwide, with globally significant net fluxes into boreal and temperate forests, and a large sink in intact tropical forest, albeit with large uncertainty. Furthermore, Pan et al. (2011) showed that this tropical intact forest sink - may have faded from an estimated annual 1.3 ± 0.4 Pg C in the 1990's to 1.0 ± 0.5 Pg C for 2000-2007. The tropical intact sink is offset by a net land-use emission (1.5 Pg C yr −1 [1990-1999]) declining to 1.1 Pg C yr −1 [2000-2007]), and as a consequence aircraft measurements and inverse modelling studies indicate the tropics to be close to neutral in terms of net carbon fluxes (reviewed by Ciais et al. 2013). While the intact tropical forest sink values represent updates from similar values published previously (e.g., Lewis et al., 2009a), the fact that almost the entire residual terrestrial carbon sink is accounted for by the forests of the world was a notable discovery. Evidence from the ground now points to established forests being a net sink across almost every major forest region, including all extra-tropical forest regions analysed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Forecasting how global warming will affect onset of the growing season is essential for predicting terrestrial productivity, but suffers from conflicting evidence. We show that accurate estimates require ways to connect discrete observations of changing tree status (e.g., pre- vs. post-budbreak) with continuous responses to fluctuating temperatures. By coherently synthesizing discrete observations with continuous responses to temperature variation, we accurately quantify how increasing temperature variation accelerates onset of growth. Application to warming experiments at two latitudes demonstrates that maximum responses to warming are concentrated in late winter, weeks ahead of the main budbreak period. Given that warming will not occur uniformly over the year, knowledge of when temperature variation has the most impact can guide prediction. Responses are large and heterogeneous, yet predictable. The approach has immediate application to forecasting effects of warming on growing season length, requiring only information that is readily available from weather stations and generated in climate models. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Climate change is expected to cause geographic redistributions of species. To the extent that species within assemblages have different niche requirements, assemblages may no longer remain intact and dis- and reassemble at current or new geographic locations. We explored how climate change projected by 2100 may transform the world's avian assemblages (characterized at a 110 km spatial grain) by modelling environmental niche-based changes to their dietary guild structure under 0 km, 500 km, and 2000 km dispersal distances. We examined guild structure changes at coarse (primary, high-level, and mixed consumers) and fine (frugivores, nectarivores, insectivores, herbivores, granivores, scavengers, omnivores, and carnivores) ecological resolutions to determine whether or not geographic co-occurrence patterns among guilds were associated with the magnitude to which guilds are functionally resolved. Dietary guilds vary considerably in their global geographic prevalence, and under broad-scale niche-based redistribution of species, these are projected to change very heterogeneously. A non-dispersal assumption results in the smallest projected changes to guild assemblages, but with significant losses for some regions and guilds, such as South American insectivores. Longer dispersal distances are projected to cause greater degrees of disassembly, and lead to greater homogenization of guild composition, especially in northern Asia and Africa. This arises because projected range gains and losses result in geographically heterogeneous patterns of guild compensation. Projected decreases especially of primary and mixed consumers most often are compensated by increases in high-level consumers, with increasing uncertainty about these outcomes as dispersal distance and degree of guild functional resolution increases. Further exploration into the consequences of these significant broad-scale ecological functional changes at the community or ecosystem level should be increasingly on the agenda for conservation science. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Climate change scenarios predict increases in the frequency and duration of ENSO-related droughts for parts of South-East Asia until the end of this century exposing the remaining rainforests to increasing drought risk. A pan-tropical review of recorded drought-related tree mortalities in more than 100 monitoring plots before, during and after drought events suggested a higher drought-vulnerability of trees in South-East Asian than in Amazonian forests. Here, we present the results of a replicated (n=3 plots) throughfall exclusion experiment in a perhumid tropical rainforest in Sulawesi, Indonesia. In this first large-scale roof experiment outside semi-humid eastern Amazonia, 60% of the throughfall was displaced during the first 8 months and 80% during the subsequent 17 months, exposing the forest to severe soil desiccation for about 17 months. In the experiment's second year, wood production decreased on average by 40% with largely different responses of the tree families (ranging from -100 to +100% change). Most sensitive were trees with high radial growth rates under moist conditions. In contrast, tree height was only a secondary factor and wood specific gravity had no influence on growth sensitivity. Fine root biomass was reduced by 35% after 25 months of soil desiccation while fine root necromass increased by 250% indicating elevated fine root mortality. Cumulative aboveground litter production was not significantly reduced in this period. The trees from this Indonesian perhumid rainforest revealed similar responses of wood and litter production and root dynamics as those in two semi-humid Amazonian forests subjected to experimental drought. We conclude that trees from paleo- or neotropical forests growing in semi-humid or perhumid climates may not differ systematically in their growth sensitivity and vitality under sub-lethal drought stress. Drought vulnerability may depend more on stem cambial activity in moist periods than on tree height or wood specific gravity. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Soil microbial communities in Chihuahuan Desert grasslands generally experience highly variable spatiotemporal rainfall patterns. Changes in precipitation regimes can affect belowground ecosystem processes such as decomposition and nutrient cycling by altering soil microbial community structure and function. The objective of this study was to determine if increased seasonal precipitation frequency and magnitude over a seven-year period would generate a persistent shift in microbial community characteristics and soil nutrient availability. We supplemented natural rainfall with large events (one/winter and three/summer) to simulate increased precipitation based on climate model predictions for this region. We observed a two year delay in microbial responses to supplemental precipitation treatments. In Years 3-5, higher microbial biomass, arbuscular mycorrhizae abundance, and soil enzyme C and P acquisition activities were observed in the supplemental water plots even during extended drought periods. In Years 5-7, available soil P was consistently lower in the watered plots compared to control plots. Shifts in soil P corresponded to higher fungal abundances, microbial C utilization activity, and soil pH. This study demonstrated that 25% shifts in seasonal rainfall can significantly influence soil microbial and nutrient properties, which in turn may have long-term effects on nutrient cycling and plant P uptake in this desert grassland. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: It is proposed that increases in anthropogenic reactive nitrogen (N r )-deposition may cause temperate and boreal forests to sequester a globally significant quantity of carbon (C); however, long-term data from boreal forests describing how C sequestration responds to realistic levels of chronic N r -deposition are scarce. Using a long term (14-year) stand scale (0.1 ha) N-addition experiment (three levels: 0, 12.5, and 50 kg N ha −1 yr −1 ) in the boreal zone of northern Sweden, we evaluated how chronic N additions altered N uptake and biomass of understory communities, and whether changes in understory communities explained N uptake and C sequestration by trees. We hypothesized that understory communities (i.e. mosses and shrubs) serve as important sinks for low-level N additions, with the strength of these sinks weakening as chronic N addition rates increase, due to shifts in species composition. We further hypothesized that trees would exhibit non-linear increases in N acquisition, and subsequent C sequestration as N addition rates increased, due to a weakening understory N sink. Our data showed that understory biomass was reduced by 50% in response to the high N addition treatment, mainly due to reduced moss biomass. A 15 N labelling experiment showed that feather mosses acquired the largest fraction of applied label, with this fraction decreasing as the chronic N addition level increased. Contrary to our hypothesis, the proportion of label taken up by trees was equal (~8%) across all three N addition treatments. The relationship between N addition and C sequestration in all vegetation pools combined was linear, and had a slope of 16 kg C kg −1 N. While canopy retention of N r deposition may cause C sequestration rates to be slightly different than this estimate, our data suggests that a minor quantity of annual anthropogenic CO 2 emissions are sequestered into boreal forests as a result of N r deposition. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Urbanization is one of the most extensive and ecologically significant changes happening to terrestrial environments, as it strongly affects the distribution of biodiversity. It is well established that native species richness is reduced in urban and suburban areas, but the species traits that predict tolerance to urbanization are yet little understood. In birds, one of the most studied groups in this respect, evidence is appearing that acoustic traits influence urban living, but it is unknown how this compares to the effects of more obvious ecological traits that facilitate urban living. Therefore, it remains unclear whether acoustic communication is an important predictor of urban tolerance among species. Here, with a comparative study across 140 European and North American passerines, I show that high song frequency, which is less masked by the low-frequency anthropogenic noise, is associated with urban tolerance, with an effect size over half that of the most important ecological trait studied: off-ground nesting. Other nesting and foraging traits accepted to facilitate urban living did not differ for species occurring in urban environments. Thus, the contribution of acoustic traits for passerine urban tolerance approximates that of more obvious ecological traits. Nonetheless, effect sizes of the biological predictors of urban tolerance were low and the phylogenetic signal for urban tolerance was null, both of which suggest that factors other than phenotypic traits have major effects on urban tolerance. A simple possibility is exposure to urbanization, since there was a higher proportion of urban-tolerant species in Europe, which is more urbanized than North America. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: ABSTRACT A study was performed to characterize over land precipitation associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) for basins around the world based upon the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS). From 1998 to 2009, data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) product 3B42, showed that TCs accounted for 5.5%, 7.5%, 6%, 9.5%, and 8.9% of the annual precipitation for impacted over land areas of the Americas, East Asia, South and West Asia, Oceania, and East Africa respectively, and that TC contribution decreased significantly within the first 150-km from the coast. Locally, TCs contributed on average to more than 25% and up to 61% of the annual precipitation budget over very different climatic areas with arid or tropical characteristics. East Asia represented the higher and most constant TC rain (118±19% mm y -1 ) normalized over the area impacted, while East Africa presented the highest variability (108±60% mm y -1 ), and the Americas displayed the lowest average TC rain (65±24% mm y -1 ) despite a higher TC activity. Furthermore, the maximum monthly TC contribution (8-11%) was found later in the TC season and depended on the peak of TC activity, TC rainfall, and the domain transition between dry and wet regimes if any. Finally, because of their importance in terms of rainfall amount, the contribution of TCs was provided for a selection of 50 urban areas experiencing cyclonic activity. Results showed that for particularly intense years, urban areas prone to cyclonic activity received more than half of their annual rainfall from TCs.

Description: A multivariate, multi-site daily weather generator is presented for use in decision-centric vulnerability assessments under climate change. The tool is envisioned useful for a wide range of socioeconomic and biophysical systems sensitive to different aspects of climate variability and change. The proposed stochastic model has several components, including 1) a wavelet decomposition coupled to an autoregressive model to account for structured, low-frequency climate oscillations, 2) a Markov Chain and k-nearest-neighbor (KNN) resampling scheme to simulate spatially-distributed, multivariate weather variables over a region, and 3) a quantile mapping procedure to enforce long-term distributional shifts in weather variables that result from prescribed climate changes. The Markov Chain is used to better represent wet and dry spell statistics while the KNN bootstrap resampler preserves the covariance structure between the weather variables and across space. The wavelet-based autoregressive model is applied to annual climate over the region and used to modulate the Markov Chain and KNN resampling, embedding appropriate low-frequency structure within the daily weather generation process. Parameters can be altered in any of the components of the proposed model to enable the generation of realistic time series of climate variables that exhibit changes to both lower-order and higher-order statistics at long-term (inter-annual), mid-term (seasonal), and short-term (daily) timescales. The tool can be coupled with impact models in a bottom-up risk assessment to efficiently and exhaustively explore the potential climate changes under which a system is most vulnerable. An application of the weather generator is presented for the Connecticut River basin to demonstrate the tool's ability to generate a wide range of possible climate sequences over an extensive spatial domain.

Description: The objective of the least cost design problem of a water distribution system is to find its minimum cost with discrete diameters as decision variables and hydraulic controls as constraints. The goal of a robust least cost design is to find solutions which guarantee its feasibility independent of the data (i.e., under model uncertainty). A robust counterpart approach for linear uncertain problems is adopted in this study, which represents the uncertain stochastic problem as its deterministic equivalent. Robustness is controlled by a single parameter providing a trade-off between the probability of constraint violation and the objective cost. Two principal models are developed-uncorrelated uncertainty model with implicit design reliability, and correlated uncertainty model with explicit design reliability. The models are tested on three example applications and compared for uncertainty in consumers’ demands. The main contribution of this study is the inclusion of the ability to explicitly account for different correlations between water distribution systems demand nodes. In particular it is shown that including correlation information in the design phase has a substantial advantage in seeking more efficient robust solutions.

Description: Moving from univariate to multivariate frequency analysis, this study extends the Klemeš' critique of the widespread belief that the increasingly refined mathematical structures of probability functions increase the accuracy and credibility of the extrapolated upper tails of the fitted distribution models. In particular, we discuss key aspects of multivariate frequency analysis applied to hydrological data such as the selection of multivariate design events (i.e., appropriate subsets or scenarios of multiplets that exhibit the same joint probability to be used in design applications) and the assessment of the corresponding uncertainty. Since these problems are often overlooked or treated separately, and sometimes confused, we attempt to clarify properties, advantages, shortcomings and reliability of results of frequency analysis. We suggest a selection method of multivariate design events with prescribed joint probability based on simple Monte Carlo simulations that accounts for the uncertainty affecting the inference results and the multivariate extreme quantiles. It is also shown that the exploration of the p -level probability regions of a joint distribution returns a set of events that is a subset of the p -level scenarios resulting from an appropriate assessment of the sampling uncertainty, thus tending to overlook more extreme and potentially dangerous events with the same (uncertain) joint probability. Moreover, a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty of multivariate quantiles is provided by introducing the concept of joint confidence intervals. From an operational point of view, the simulated event sets describing the distribution of the multivariate p -level quantiles can be used to perform multivariate risk analysis under sampling uncertainty. As an example of the practical implications of this study, we analyse two case studies already presented in the literature.

Description: Sparse geologic dictionaries provide a novel approach for subsurface flow model representation and calibration. Learning sparse dictionaries from prior training datasets is an effective approach to describe complex geologic connectivity patterns in subsurface imaging applications. However, the computational cost of sparse learning algorithms becomes prohibitive for large models. Performing the sparse dictionary learning process on smaller image patches (segments) provides a simple approach to address this problem in image processing applications. However, in underdetermined subsurface flow model calibration inverse problems, reconstruction of a segmented image can introduce significant structural distortion and discontinuity at the boundaries of the segments. This paper proposes an alternative sparse learning approach where the sparse dictionaries are learned from low-rank representations of the large-scale training dataset in spectral domains (e.g., frequency domain). The objective is to develop a computationally efficient dictionary learning approach that emphasizes large-scale spatial connectivity patterns. This is achieved by removing the strong spatial correlations in the training data, thereby eliminating a large number of insignificant components from the sparse learning computation. In addition to improving the computational complexity, sparse learning from low-rank training datasets suppresses the small-scale details from entering the reconstruction of large-scale connectivity patterns, and providing a regularization effect in solving the resulting ill-posed inverse problems. We apply the proposed approach to travel-time tomography inversion and nonlinear subsurface flow model calibration inverse problems to demonstrate its effectiveness and practicality.

Description: There is evidence that climate change induced tree mortalities in boreal and temperate forests and increased forest turnover rates (both mortality and recruitment rates) in Amazon forests. However, no study has examined China's tropical and subtropical evergreen broadleaved forests (TEBF) that cover 〉26% of China's terrestrial land . The sustainability of this biome is vital to the maintenance of local ecosystem services (e.g., carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, climatic regulation etc.), many of which may influence patterns of atmospheric circulation and composition at regional to global scales. Here we analyze time-series data collected from thirteen permanent plots within China's unmanaged TEBF to study whether and how this biome has changed over recent decades. We find that the numbers of individuals and species for shrub and small tree have increased since 1978, whereas the numbers of individuals and species for tree have decreased over this same time period. The shift in species composition is accompanied by a decrease in the mean DBH (diameter at breast height) for all individuals combined. China's TEBF may thereby be transitioning from cohorts of fewer and larger individuals to ones of more and smaller individuals, which shows a unique change pattern differing from the documented. Regional-scale drying is likely responsible for the biome's reorganization. This biome-wide reconstitution would deeply impact the regimes of carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation and have implications for the sustainability of economic development in the area. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Freshwater ecosystems provide vital resources for humans and support high levels of biodiversity, yet are severely threatened throughout the world. The expansion of human land uses, such as urban and crop cover, typically degrades water quality and reduces freshwater biodiversity, thereby jeopardizing both biodiversity and ecosystem services. Identifying and mitigating future threats to freshwater ecosystems requires forecasting where land use changes are most likely. Our goal was to evaluate the potential consequences of future land use on freshwater ecosystems in the coterminous United States by comparing alternative scenarios of land use change (2001-2051) with current patterns of freshwater biodiversity and water-quality risk. Using an econometric model, each of our land use scenarios projected greater changes in watersheds of the eastern half of the country, where freshwater ecosystems already experience higher stress from human activities. Future urban expansion emerged as a major threat in regions with high freshwater biodiversity (e.g., the Southeast) or severe water-quality problems (e.g., the Midwest). Our scenarios reflecting environmentally-oriented policies had some positive effects. Subsidizing afforestation for carbon sequestration reduced crop cover and increased natural vegetation in areas that are currently stressed by low water quality, while discouraging urban sprawl diminished urban expansion in areas of high biodiversity. On the other hand, we found that increases in crop commodity prices could lead to increased agricultural threats in areas of high freshwater biodiversity. Our analyses illustrate the potential for policy changes and market factors to influence future land use trends in certain regions of the country, with important consequences for freshwater ecosystems. Successful conservation of aquatic biodiversity and ecosystem services in the U.S. into the future will require attending to the potential threats and opportunities arising from policies and market changes affecting land use. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The conditions permitting mantle serpentinization during continental rifting are explored within 2D thermotectonostratigraphic basin models, which track the rheological evolution of the continental crust, account for sediment blanketing effects, and allow for kinetically controlled mantle serpentinization processes. The basic idea is that the entire extending continental crust has to be brittle for crustal scale faulting and mantle serpentinization to occur [ Perez-Gussinye and Reston , 2001]. The isostatic and latent heat effects of the reaction are fully coupled to the structural and thermal solutions. A systematic parameter study shows that a critical stretching factor exists for which complete crustal embrittlement and serpentinization occurs. Increased sedimentation rates shift this critical stretching factor to higher values as sediment blanketing effects result in higher crustal temperatures. Sediment supply has therefore, through the temperature-dependence of the viscous flow laws, strong control on crustal strength and mantle serpentinization reactions are only likely when sedimentation rates are low and stretching factors high. In a case study for the Norwegian margin we test whether the inner lower crustal bodies (LCB) imaged beneath the Møre and Vøring margin could be serpentinized mantle. Multiple 2D transects have been reconstructed through the 3D data set by Scheck-Wenderoth and Maystrenko [2011]. We find that serpentinization reactions are possible and likely during the Jurassic rift phase. Predicted thicknesses and locations of partially serpentinized mantle rocks fit to information on LCBs from seismic and gravity data. We conclude that some of the inner LCBs beneath the Norwegian margin may be partially serpentinized mantle.

Description: A new hybrid wavelet–bootstrap–neural network (WBNN) model is proposed in this study for short term (1, 3 and 5 day; 1 and 2 week; and 1 and 2 month) urban water demand forecasting. The new method was tested using data from the city of Montreal in Canada. The performance of the WBNN method was compared with the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous input variables (ARIMAX), traditional NNs, wavelet analysis based NNs (WNN), bootstrap based NNs (BNN), and a simple naïve persistence index model. The WBNN model was developed as an ensemble of several NNs built using bootstrap resamples of wavelet sub-time series instead of raw datasets. The results demonstrated that the hybrid WBNN and WNN models produced significantly more accurate forecasting results than the traditional NN, BNN, ARIMA and ARIMAX models. It was also found that the WBNN model reduces the uncertainty associated with the forecasts, and the performance of WBNN forecasted confidence bands were found to be more accurate and reliable than BNN forecasted confidence bands. It was found in this study that maximum temperature and total precipitation improved the accuracy of water demand forecasts using wavelet analysis. The performance of WBNN models was also compared for different numbers of bootstrap resamples (i.e., 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500) and it was found that WBNN models produced optimum results with different numbers of bootstrap resamples for different lead time forecasts with considerable variability.

Description: Animals living in tropical regions may be at increased risk from climate change because current temperatures at these locations already approach critical physiological thresholds. Relatively small temperature increases could cause animals to exceed these thresholds more often, resulting in substantial fitness costs or even death. Oviparous species could be especially vulnerable because the maximum thermal tolerances of incubating embryos is often lower than adult counterparts, and in many species mothers abandon the eggs after oviposition, rendering them immobile and thus unable to avoid extreme temperatures. As a consequence, the effects of climate change might become evident earlier and be more devastating for hatchling production in the tropics. Loggerhead sea turtles ( Caretta caretta ) have the widest nesting range of any living reptile, spanning temperate to tropical latitudes in both hemispheres. Currently, loggerhead sea turtle populations in the tropics produce nearly 30% fewer hatchlings per nest than temperate populations. Strong correlations between empirical hatching success and habitat quality allowed global predictions of the spatiotemporal impacts of climate change on this fitness trait. Under climate change, many sea turtle populations nesting in tropical environments are predicted to experience severe reductions in hatchling production, whereas hatching success in many temperate populations could remain unchanged or even increase with rising temperatures. Some populations could show very complex responses to climate change, with higher relative hatchling production as temperatures begin to increase, followed by declines as critical physiological thresholds are exceeded more frequently. Predicting when, where, and how climate change could impact the reproductive output of local populations is crucial for anticipating how a warming world will influence population size, growth, and stability. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: It has recently been found that the frequency distribution of remotely sensed tree cover in the tropics has three distinct modes, which seem to correspond to forest, savanna and treeless states. This pattern has been suggested to imply that these states represent alternative attractors, and that the response of these systems to climate change would be characterized by critical transitions and hysteresis. Here, we show how this inference is contingent upon mechanisms at play. We present a simple dynamical model that can generate three alternative tree cover states (forest, savanna and a treeless state), based on known mechanisms, and use this model to simulate patterns of tree cover under different scenarios. We use these synthetic data to show that the hysteresis inferred from remotely sensed tree cover patterns will be inflated by spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions. On the other hand, we show that the hysteresis inferred from satellite data may actually underestimate real hysteresis in response to climate change if there exists a positive feedback between regional tree cover and precipitation. Our results also indicate that such positive feedback between vegetation and climate should cause direct shifts between forest and a treeless state (rather than through an intermediate savanna-state) to become more likely. Lastly, we show how directionality of historical change in conditions may bias the observed relationship between tree cover and environmental conditions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: ABSTRACT Although mechanistic reaction networks have been developed to quantify the biogeochemical evolution of subsurface systems associated with bioremediation, it is difficult in practice to quantify the onset and distribution of these transitions at the field scale using commonly collected wellbore datasets. As an alternative approach to the mechanistic methods, we develop a data-driven, statistical model to identify biogeochemical transitions using various time-lapse aqueous geochemical data (e.g., Fe(II), sulfate, sulfide, acetate, and uranium concentrations) and induced polarization (IP) data. We assume that the biogeochemical transitions can be classified as several dominant states that correspond to redox transitions and test the method at a uranium-contaminated site. The relationships between the geophysical observations and geochemical time-series vary depending upon the unknown underlying redox status, which is modeled as a hidden Markov random field. We estimate unknown parameters by maximizing the joint likelihood function using the maximization-expectation algorithm. The case study results show that when considered together aqueous geochemical data and IP imaginary conductivity provide a key diagnostic signature of biogeochemical stages. The developed method provides useful information for evaluating the effectiveness of bioremediation, such as the probability of being in specific redox stages following biostimulation where desirable pathways (e.g., uranium removal) are more highly favored. The use of geophysical data in the approach advances the possibility of using non-invasive methods to monitor critical biogeochemical system stages and transitions remotely and over field relevant scales (e.g., from square meters to several hectares).

Description: In recent years, a number of numerical modelling studies of transient sea-level rise (SLR) and seawater intrusion (SWI) in flux-controlled systems have reported an overshoot phenomenon, whereby the freshwater-saltwater interface temporarily extends further inland than the eventual steady-state position. In this study, we have carried out physical sand tank modelling of SLR-SWI in a flux-controlled unconfined aquifer setting to test if SWI overshoot is a measurable physical process. Photographs of the physical SLR experiments show, for the first time, that an overshoot occurs under controlled laboratory conditions. A sea-level drop (SLD) experiment was also carried out, and overshoot was again observed, whereby the interface was temporarily closer to the coast than the eventual steady-state position. This shows that an overshoot can occur for the case of a retreating interface. Numerical modelling corroborated the physical SLR and SLD experiments. The magnitude of the overshoot for SLR and SLD in the physical experiments was 24% of the change in steady-state interface position, albeit the laboratory setting is designed to maximise overshoot extent by adopting high groundwater flow gradients and large and rapid sea-level changes. While the likelihood of overshoot at the field scale appears to be low, this work has shown that it can be observed under controlled laboratory conditions.

Description: A new analytical solution of the flow equation has been developed to estimate the time to reach a near-equilibrium state in mixed aquifers, i.e. having unconfined and confined portions, following a large hydraulic perturbation. Near-equilibrium is defined as the time for an initial aquifer perturbation to dissipate by an average 95% across the aquifer.The new solution has been obtained by solving the flow system of a simplified conceptual model of a mixed aquifer using Laplace transforms. The conceptual model is based on two assumptions: 1) the groundwater flow can be reduced to a horizontal 1D problem; and 2) the transmissivity, a function of the saturated thickness, is assumed constant on the unconfined portion. This new solution depends on the storativity of the unconfined portion, the lengths of the unconfined and confined portions and the transmissivity, assumed to be constant and equal in both portions of the mixed aquifer. This solution was then tested and validated against a numerical flow model, where the variations of the saturated thickness and therefore variations of the transmissivity were either ignored, or properly modeled. The agreement between the results from the new solution and those from the numerical model is good, validating the use of this new solution to estimate the time to reach near-equilibrium in mixed aquifers. This solution for mixed aquifers, as well as the solutions for a fully confined or fully unconfined aquifer, have been used to estimate the time to reach near-equilibrium in thirteen large aquifers in the world. For those different aquifers, the time to reach near-equilibrium ranges between 0.7 ky to 2.4x10 7 ky. These results suggest that the present hydraulic heads in these aquifers are typically a mixture of responses induced from current and past hydrologic conditions and thus climate conditions. For some aquifers, the modern hydraulic heads may in fact depend upon hydrologic conditions resulting from several past climate cycles.

Description: The impact of contact angle on 2D spatial and temporal water content distribution during infiltration and drainage was experimentally studied. The 0.3-0.5 mm fraction of a quartz dune sand was treated and turned sub-critically repellent (contact angle of 33 0 , 48 0 , 56 0 , and 75 0 for S33, S48, S56, and S75, respectively). The media were packed uniformly in transparent flow chambers and water was supplied to the surface as a point source at different rates (1 to 20 ml/min). A sequence of grey-value images was taken by CCD camera during infiltration and subsequent drainage; grey values were converted to volumetric water content by water volume balance. Narrow and long plumes with water accumulation behind the downward moving wetting front (tip) and negative water gradient above it (tail) developed in the S56 and S75 media during infiltration at lower water application rates. The plumes became bulbous with spatially uniform water content distribution as water application rates increased. All plumes in these media propagated downward at a constant rate during infiltration and were frozen during drainage. In contrast, regular plume shapes were observed in the S33 and S48 media at all flow rates, and drainage profiles were non-monotonic with a transition plane at the depth that water reached during infiltration. Given that the studied media have similar pore-size distributions, the conclusion is that imbibition hindered by the non-zero contact angle induced pressure buildup at the wetting front (dynamic water entry value) that controlled the plume shape and internal water-content distribution during infiltration and drainage.

Description: Estimation of design quantiles of hydro-meteorological variables at critical locations in river basins is necessary for hydrological applications. To arrive at reliable estimates for locations (sites) where no or limited records are available, various regional frequency analysis (RFA) procedures have been developed over the past five decades. The most widely used procedure is based on Index-flood approach and L -moments. It assumes that values of scale and shape parameters of frequency distribution are identical across all the sites in a homogeneous region. In real world scenario, this assumption may not be valid even if a region is statistically homogeneous. To address this issue, a novel mathematical approach is proposed. It involves (i) identification of an appropriate frequency distribution to fit the random variable being analyzed for homogeneous region, (ii) use of a proposed transformation mechanism to map observations of the variable from original space to a dimensionless space where the form of distribution does not change, and variation in values of its parameters is minimal across sites, (iii) construction of a growth curve in the dimensionless space, and (iv) mapping the curve to the original space for the target site by applying inverse transformation to arrive at required quantile(s) for the site. Effectiveness of the proposed approach in predicting quantiles for ungauged sites is demonstrated through Monte-Carlo simulation experiments considering five frequency distributions that are widely used in RFA, and by case study on watersheds in conterminous United States. Results indicate that the proposed approach outperforms methods based on index-flood approach.

Description: Prediction of microbial surface water contamination is a formidable task because of the inherent randomness of environmental processes driving microbial fate and transport. In this article we develop a theoretical framework of a fully stochastic model of microbial transport in watersheds, and apply the theory to a simple flow network to demonstrate its use. The framework bridges the gap between microscopic behavior of individual microorganisms and macroscopic ensemble dynamics. This scaling is accomplished within a single mathematical framework, where each microorganism behaves according to a continuous-time discrete-space Markov process, and the Markov behavior of individual microbes gives rise to a non-homogeneous Poisson random field that describes microbial population dynamics. Mean value functions are derived, and the spatial and temporal distribution of water contamination risk is computed in a straightforward manner.

Description: The magnitude and direction of phenological shifts from climate warming could be predictably variable across the planet depending upon the nature of physiological controls on phenology, the thermal sensitivity of the developmental processes and global patterns in the climate warming. We tested this with respect to the flight phenology of adult nocturnal moths (3.33 million captures of 334 species) that were sampled at sites in southern and northern Finland during 1993–2012 (with years 2005–2012 treated as an independent model validation data set). We compared eight competing models of physiological controls on flight phenology to each species and found strong support for thermal controls of phenology in 66% of the species generations. Among species with strong thermal control of phenology in both the south and north, the average development rate was higher in northern vs. southern populations at 10 °C, but about the same at 15 and 20 °C. With a 3 °C increase in temperature (approximating A2 scenario of IPPC for 2090–2099 relative to 1980–1999) these species were predicted to advance their phenology on average by 17 (SE ± 0.3) days in the south vs. 13 (±0.4) days in the north. The higher development rates at low temperatures of poleward populations makes them less sensitive to climate warming, which opposes the tendency for stronger phenological advances in the north from greater increases in temperature.

Description: Desert annuals are a critically important component of desert communities and may be particularly responsive to increasing atmospheric [CO 2 ] because of their high potential growth rates and flexible phenology. During the ten-year life of the Nevada Desert FACE (Free-air CO 2 enrichment) Facility, we evaluated the productivity, reproductive allocation, and community structure of annuals in response to long-term elevated [CO 2 ] exposure. The dominant forb and grass species exhibited accelerated phenology, increased size, and higher reproduction at elevated [CO 2 ] in a wet El Niño year near the beginning of the experiment. However, a multi-year dry cycle resulted in no increases in productivity or reproductive allocation for the remainder of the experiment. At the community level, early indications of increased dominance of the invasive Bromus rubens at elevated [CO 2 ] gave way to an absence of Bromus in the community during a drought cycle, with a resurgence late in the experiment in response to higher rainfall and a corresponding high density of Bromus in a final soil seed bank analysis, particularly at elevated [CO 2 ]. This long-term experiment resulted in two primary conclusions: (1) elevated [CO 2 ] does not increase productivity of annuals in most years; and (2) relative stimulation of invasive grasses will likely depend on future precipitation, with a wetter climate favoring invasive grasses but currently predicted greater aridity favoring native dicots. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The origin of the Bermuda swell and volcanism remains enigmatic. The lack of an associated time-progressive hotspot track and absence of present-day volcanic activity make it difficult to reconcile with a deep mantle plume model. We analyze shear wave splitting measurements to estimate mantle flow direction and receiver function stacks to place constraints on the mantle transition zone thermal structure. *KS phases exhibit well-resolved null arrivals (no splitting) beneath the swell over a range of back azimuths. We find that the 410 and 660 km discontinuities are 49 ± 5 km and 19 ± 5 km deeper than the global average, respectively, leading to a transition zone thickness that is 27 ± 4 km thinner than average. Together, an apparently isotropic upper mantle and a thinned mantle transition zone suggest that mantle flow is primarily vertical beneath the swell, consistent with the presence of hot, buoyant mantle at depth.

Description: The anomalously snowy winter season of 2010/11 in the Sierra Nevada is analyzed in terms of snow water equivalent (SWE) anomalies and the role of atmospheric rivers (ARs)―narrow channels of enhanced meridional water vapor transport between the tropics and extratropics. Mean April 1 SWE was 0.44 m (56%) above normal averaged over 100 snow sensors. AR occurrence was anomalously high during the period, with 20 AR dates during the season and 14 in the month of December 2010, compared to the mean occurrence of 9 dates per season. Fifteen out of the 20 AR dates were associated with the negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern. Analysis of all winter ARs in California during water years 1998–2011 indicates more ARs occur during the negative phase of AO and PNA, with the increase between positive and negative phases being ˜90% for AO, and ˜50% for PNA. The circulation pattern associated with concurrent negative phases of AO and PNA, characterized by cyclonic anomalies centered northwest of California, provides a favorable dynamical condition for ARs. The analysis suggests that the massive Sierra Nevada snowpack during the 2010/11 winter season is primarily related to anomalously high frequency of ARs favored by the joint phasing of −AO and −PNA, and that a secondary contribution is from increased snow accumulation during these ARs favored by colder air temperatures associated with −AO, −PNA and La Niña.

Description: The baseflow recession constant, K b , is used to characterize the interaction of groundwater and surface water systems. Estimation of K b is critical in many studies including rainfall-runoff modeling, estimation of low flow statistics at ungaged locations and baseflow separation methods. The performance of several estimators of K b are compared, including several new approaches which account for the impact of human withdrawals. A traditional semi-log estimation approach adapted to incorporate the influence of human withdrawals was preferred over other derivative-based estimators. Human withdrawals are shown to have a significant impact on the estimation of baseflow recessions, even when withdrawals are relatively small. Regional regression models are developed to relate seasonal estimates of K b to physical, climatic, and anthropogenic characteristics of stream-aquifer systems. Among the factors considered for explaining the behavior of K b , both drainage density and human withdrawals have significant and similar explanatory power. We document the importance of incorporating human withdrawals into models of the baseflow recession response of a watershed and the systemic downward bias associated with estimates of K b obtained without consideration of human withdrawals.

Description: There are significant uncertainties inherent in precipitation forecasts and these uncertainties can be communicated to users via large ensembles that are generated using stochastic models of forecast error. The Met Office and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology developed the Short Term Ensemble Prediction System (STEPS) which has been operational for a number of years. The initial formulation of Bowler et al. [2006] has been revised and extended to improve the performance over large domains, to include radar observation errors, and to facilitate the combination of forecasts from a number of sources. This paper reviews the formulation of STEPS, discusses those aspects of the formulation that have proved most problematic and presents some solutions. The performance of STEPS nowcasts is evaluated using a combination of case study examples and statistical verification from the UK. Routine forecast verification demonstrates that STEPS is capable of producing near optimal blends of a rainfall nowcast and high resolution NWP forecast. It also shows that the spread of STEPS nowcast ensembles are a good predictor of the error in the control member (unperturbed) nowcast.

Description: In this study seasonal and interannual variability of the main atmospheric moisture sources over eight regions in the Mediterranean basin were investigated along a twenty one year period. The Lagrangian dispersion model FLEXPART, developed by Stohl and James [2004, 2005], was applied to identify the contribution of humidity to the moisture budget of each region. This methodology is used to compute budgets of evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) by calculating changes in the specific humidity along backward trajectories, for the preceding ten-day periods. The results show clear seasonal differences in the moisture sources between wet and dry seasons. The Western Mediterranean Sea is the dominant moisture source for almost all the regions in the Mediterranean basin during the wet season, while the local net evaporation dominates during the dry season. The highest interannual variability is found in contributions to the Iberian Peninsula, Italy and the Eastern Mediterranean. It is seen that the role of teleconnections is more limited than for the precipitation recorded in the region.

Description: We present a new hydrologic model based on the frequency distribution of hillslope landscape elements along the stream network as a basis for simulating landscape-scale hydrologic connectivity and catchment runoff. Hydrologic connectivity describes shallow water table continuity between upland and stream elements of the catchment and is important for the movement of water and solutes to streams. This concept has gained traction in physical hydrology but has received less attention in rainfall-runoff modeling. Our model is based on the empirical studies of Jencso et al. [2009; 2010], who found a strong correlation between the duration of shallow groundwater connectivity across hillslope, riparian, and stream zones and upslope accumulated area. We explored the relationship between catchment form and function by testing the extent to which streamflow generation could be predicted by a model based on the topographic form (distribution of landscape elements) of the catchment. We applied the model to the Stringer Creek catchment of the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest, located in Montana, USA. Detailed field observations collected by Jencso et al. [2009] were used to inform the underpinnings of the model and to corroborate internal consistency of the model simulations. The model demonstrated good agreement between the observed and predicted streamflow and connectivity duration curves. The ability of this model to simulate internal dynamics without conditioning the parameters on these data suggests that it has the potential to be more confidently extrapolated to other shallow, topographically driven catchments than hydrologic models that fail to consistently reproduce internal variables.

Description: Knowledge of hydrological model complexity can aid selection of an optimal prediction model out of a set of available models. Optimal model selection is formalized as selection of the least complex model out of a subset of models that have lower empirical risk. This may be considered equivalent to minimizing an upper bound on prediction error, defined here as the mathematical expectation of empirical risk. In this paper we derive an upper bound that is free from assumptions on data and underlying process distribution as well as on independence of model predictions over time. We demonstrate that hydrological model complexity, as defined in the presented theoretical framework, plays an important role in determining the upper bound. The model complexity also acts as a stabilizer to a hydrological model selection problem if it is deemed ill-posed. We provide an algorithm for computing complexity of any arbitrary hydrological model. We also demonstrate that hydrological model complexity has a geometric interpretation as the size of model output space. The presented theory is applied to quantify complexities of two hydrological model structures: SAC-SMA and SIXPAR. It detects that SAC-SMA is indeed more complex than SIXPAR. We also develop an algorithm to estimate the upper bound on prediction error, which is applied on 5 different rainfall-runoff model structures that vary in complexity. We show that a model selection problem is stabilized by regularizing it with model complexity. Complexity regularized model selection yields models that are robust in predicting future but yet unseen data.

Description: The temporal dynamics and spatial distribution of the concentrations of dissolved gases (He, Ar, Kr, N 2 , O 2 and CO 2 ) in an infiltrating groundwater system fed by the peri-alpine River Thur (Switzerland) were analysed before, during and after a single, well-defined flood event. The analysis was based on measurements taken in five different groundwater observation wells that were located approximately 10 m apart and tapped the same groundwater body, but were situated in three different riparian zones. The input of O 2 into the groundwater as a result of the formation of excess air was found to be of the same order of magnitude as that resulting from the advection of river water, although the amount of excess air formed and the amount of O 2 delivered varied significantly among the riparian zones. The results suggest that the input of O 2 into groundwater as a result of excess air formation is controlled not only by the hydraulic conditions prevailing in the river and the groundwater, but also by the thickness of the confining bed at the top of the aquifer. The sandy gravel aquifer itself is too coarse to trap a significant amount of air during the water level rise. The clay layer confining the aquifer, however, acts as a barrier hindering the escape of air from the subsoil to the surface, and hence is likely to be a key factor controlling the trapping and dissolution of air in groundwater.

Description: Estimation of parameter values in hydrological models has gradually moved from subjective, trial-and-error methods into objective estimation methods. Translation of nature's complexity to bit operations is an uncertain process as a result of data errors, epistemic gaps, computational deficiencies, and other limitations, and relies on calibration to fit model output to observed data. The robustness of the calibrated parameter values to these types of uncertainties is therefore an important concern. In this study, we investigated how the hydrological robustness of the model-parameter values varied within the geometric structure of the behavioral (well-performing) parameter space with a depth function based on α shapes and an in-depth posterior performance analysis of the simulations in relation to the observed discharge uncertainty. The α shape depth is a non-convex measure that may provide an accurate and tight delimitation of the geometric structure of the behavioral space for both uni- and multimodal parameter-value distributions. WASMOD, a parsimonious rainfall-runoff model, was applied to six Honduran and one UK catchment, with differing data quality and hydrological characteristics. Model evaluation was done with two performance measures, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and one based on flow-duration curves. Deep parameter vectors were in general found to be more hydrologically robust than shallow ones in the analyses we performed; model-performance values increased with depth, deviations to the observed data for the high-flow aspects of the hydrograph generally decreased with increasing depth, deep parameter vectors generally transferred in time with maintained high performance values, and the model had a low sensitivity to small changes in the parameter values. The tight delimitation of the behavioral space provided by the α shapes depth function showed a potential to improve the efficiency of calibration techniques that require further exploration. For computational reasons only a three-parameter model could be used, which limited the applicability of this depth measure and the conclusions drawn in this paper, especially concerning hydrological robustness at low flows.

Description: We present an improved density model and a new structural map of the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff caldera, the active portion of the nested Campi Flegrei caldera. The model was built using a new 3D inversion of the available high-precision gravity data, and a new digital terrain and marine model. The inversion procedure, based on a variable-depth lumped assembling of the subsurface gravity distribution via cell aggregation, gives better defined insights into the internal caldera architecture, that well agree with the available geological, geophysical and geochemical data. The adopted 3D gravity method is highly efficient for characterizing the shallow caldera structure (down to 3 km depth) and defining features related to regional or volcano tectonic lineaments and dynamics. In particular, the resulting density distribution highlights a pronounced density low in correspondence of the central portion of the caldera with a detail not available till now. The joint interpretation of the available data, suggests a subsurface structural setting that supports a piecemeal collapse of the caldera, and allows the identification of its headwall. Positive gravity anomalies localize dense intrusions (presently covered by late volcanic deposits) along the caldera marginal faults, and the main structural lineaments both bordering the resurgent block and cutting the caldera floor. These results allow us to both refine the current geological-structural framework and propose a new structural map that highlights the caldera boundary and its internal setting. This map is useful to interpret the phenomena occurring during unrest, and to improve both short- and long-term volcanic hazards assessment.

Description: Catastrophic collapses of submarine volcanoes have the potential to generate major tsunami, threatening many coastal populations. Recognizing the difficulties surrounding anticipations of these events, quantitative assessment of collapse-prone regions based on detailed morphological, geological and geophysical mapping can still provide important information about the hazards associated with these collapses. Rumble III is one of the shallowest, and largest, submarine volcanoes found along the Kermadec arc, and is both volcanically and hydrothermally active. Previous surveys have delineated major collapse features at Rumble III; based on time-lapse bathymetry, dramatic changes in the volcano morphology have been shown to have occurred over the interval 2007 to 2009. Furthermore, this volcano is located just ˜300 km from the east coast of the North Island of New Zealand. Here, we present a geophysical model for Rumble III, that provides the locations and sizes of potential weak regions of this volcano. Shipborne and near-seafloor geological and geophysical data collected by the AUV Sentry are used to determine the subsurface distribution of weak and unstable volcanic rocks. The resulting model provides evidence for potentially unstable areas located in the Southeastern flank of this volcano which should be included in future hazard predictions.

Description: Broadband seismic experiments over the last two decades have produced dense data coverage across Tibet. Yet, the mechanism of the India-Asia lithospheric convergence beneath it remains a puzzle, with even its basic features debated and with very different end-member models advocated today. We measured highly accurate Rayleigh- and Love-wave phase-velocity curves in broad period ranges (up to 5-200 s) for a few tens of pairs and groups of stations across Tibet, combining, in each case, hundreds to thousands of inter-station measurements made with cross-correlation and waveform-inversion methods. Robust shear-velocity profiles were then determined by extensive series of non-linear inversions of the data, designed to constrain the depth-dependent ranges of isotropic-average shear speeds and radial anisotropy. Temperature anomalies in the upper mantle were estimated from shear velocities using accurate petro-physical relationships. Our results reveal strong heterogeneity in the upper mantle beneath Tibet. Very large high-velocity anomalies in the upper mantle are consistent with the presence of underthrust (beneath southwestern Tibet) and subducted (beneath central and eastern Tibet) Indian lithosphere. The lithosphere. In contrast to the Indian lithosphere, Tibetan lithosphere and asthenosphere display low to normal shear speeds; Tibetan lithosphere is thus warm and thin. Radial anisotropy in the upper mantle is weak in central and strong in northeastern Tibet, possibly reflecting asthenospheric flow above the subducting Indian lithospheric slab.

Description: The Pacific Northwest (PNW) has experienced voluminous intraplate volcanism over the past ~17 Ma, beginning with the Steens/Columbia River flood basalts and continuing with the still-ongoing volcanism in the High Lava Plains (HLP) and eastern Snake River Plain (SRP). Here we present two complementary datasets (SKS splitting and Rayleigh wave phase velocity anisotropy) that place constraints on the anisotropic structure of the upper mantle beneath the HLP and SRP regions. Beneath the HLP, SKS phases reveal dominantly E-W fast splitting directions and large (up to ~2.7 sec) delay times, with pronounced lateral variations in δ t . Lateral and depth variability in the strength of anisotropy beneath the HLP is also evident from Rayleigh wave dispersion. Beneath the SRP, SKS splitting delay times are much smaller (~0.5 sec) and surface wave observations suggest a region of upper mantle anisotropy (~50-150 km depth) with a geometry that deviates significantly from the generally plate motion parallel fast directions observed just outside of the SRP. Beneath the HLP, the geometry of the anomalously strong anisotropy is similar to the anisotropy in the deeper parts of the upper mantle, resulting in constructive interference and large SKS splitting delay times. Beneath the SRP, the geometry of the anomalous anisotropic region in the shallow mantle is different, resulting in destructive interference and reduced SKS splitting delay times. We discuss several possible explanations for these observations, including variations in olivine lattice preferred orientation (LPO) strength, transitions in olivine fabric type, and a contribution from aligned partial melt.

Description: During the late Miocene, a dramatic global expansion of C 4 plant distribution occurred with broad spatial and temporal variations. Although the event is well documented, whether subsequent expansions were caused by a decreased atmospheric CO 2 concentration or climate change is a contentious issue. In the present study, we used an improved inverse vegetation modeling approach that accounts for the physiological responses of C 3 and C 4 plants to quantitatively reconstruct the paleoclimate in the Siwalik of Nepal based on pollen and carbon isotope data. We also studied the sensitivity of the C 3 and C 4 plants to changes in the climate and the atmospheric CO 2 concentration. We suggest that the expansion of the C 4 plant distribution during the late Miocene may have been primarily triggered by regional aridification and temperature increases. The expansion was unlikely caused by reduced CO 2 levels alone. Our findings suggest that this abrupt ecological shift mainly resulted from climate changes related to the decreased elevation of the Himalayan foreland. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The cosmic-ray neutron probe measures soil moisture over tens of hectares, thus averaging spatially variable soil moisture fields. A previous paper described how variable soil moisture profiles affect the integrated cosmic-ray neutron signal from which depth-average soil moisture is computed. Here, we investigate the effect of horizontal heterogeneity on the relationship between neutron counts and average soil moisture. Observations from a distributed sensor network at a site in southern Arizona indicate that the horizontal component of the total variance of the soil moisture field is less variably in time than the vertical component. Using results from neutron particle transport simulations we show that 1-D binary distributions of soil moisture may affect both the mean and variance of neutron counts of a cosmic-ray neutron detector placed arbitrarily in a soil moisture field, potentially giving rise to an underestimate of the footprint average soil moisture. Similar simulations that used 1 and 2-D Gaussian soil moisture fields indicate consistent mean and variances of a randomly placed detector if the correlation length scales are short (〈˜30 m) and/or the soil moisture field variance is small (〈0.032 m 6 m -6 ). Taken together, these soil moisture observations and neutron transport simulations show that horizontal heterogeneity likely has a small effect on the relationship between mean neutron counts and average soil moisture for soils under natural conditions.

Description: The bulk composition of the silicate portion of the Earth (BSE) has long been assumed to be tied to chondrites, in which refractory, lithophile elements like Sm and Nd exist in chondritic relative abundances. However, the 142 Nd/ 144 Nd ratios of modern terrestrial samples are 18±5 ppm higher than the ordinary-chondrite reservoir, and this challenges the traditional BSE model. Here we investigate a hypothesis that this terrestrial 142 Nd excess is related to a Sm/Nd ratio 6% higher than chondritic. This Sm/Nd ratio yields a superchondritic 143 Nd/ 144 Nd (~0.5130) similar to that identified in the highest 3 He/ 4 He mantle reservoir, and we argue that this reservoir represents the BSE composition for lithophile elements. We develop a compositional model for BSE in which the elevated Sm/Nd requires a shift of 143 Nd/ 144 Nd from 0.51263 (chondritic) to 0.51300. The new BSE composition is depleted in highly incompatible elements, including K, relative to the chondrite-based BSE, and offers a solution the “missing” 40 Ar paradox. This BSE compositional model requires that 〉83% of the mantle is depleted to form continental crust. It also implies a ~30% reduction in BSE U, Th and K, and therefore in the current rate of radiogenic heating and, thus, a proportional increase in the heat flow delivered to surface by plate tectonics. We explore thermal history models including effects related to a newly recognized evolution in the style of plate tectonics over Earth history: The lower radiogenic heat production may delay the onset of core convection and dynamo action to as late as 3.5 Gyr.

Description: Projections of future changes in land carbon (C) storage using biogeochemical models depend on accurately modeling the interactions between the C and nitrogen (N) cycles. Here, we present a framework for analyzing N limitation in global biogeochemical models to explore how C-N interactions of current models compare to field observations, identify the processes causing model divergence, and identify future observation and experiment needs. We used a set of N fertilization simulations from two global biogeochemical models (CLM-CN and O-CN) that use different approaches to modeling C-N interactions. On the global scale, net primary productivity (NPP) in the CLM-CN model was substantially more responsive to N fertilization than in the O-CN model. The most striking difference between the two models occurred for humid tropical forests, where the CLM-CN simulated a 62% increase in NPP at high N addition levels (30 g N m −2 yr −1 ), while the O-CN predicted a 2% decrease in NPP due to N fertilization increasing plant respiration more than photosynthesis. Across 35 temperate and boreal forest sites with field N fertilization experiments, we show that the CLM-CN simulated a 46% increase in aboveground NPP in response to N, which exceeded the observed increase of 25%. In contrast, the O-CN only simulated a 6% increase in aboveground NPP at the N fertilization sites. Despite the small response of NPP to N fertilization, the O-CN model accurately simulated ecosystem retention of N and the fate of added N to vegetation when compared to empirical 15 N tracer application studies. In contrast, the CLM-CN predicted lower total ecosystem N retention and partitioned more losses to volatilization than estimated based from observed N budgets of small catchments. These results point to the need for model improvements for both models to enhance the accuracy with which global C-N cycle feedbacks can be simulated. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: This study reports the first well-replicated analysis of continuous coral growth records from warmer-water reefs (mean annual SST 〉28.5°C) around the Thai-Malay Peninsula in Southeast Asia. Based on analyses of 70 colonies sampled from 15 reefs within six locations, region-wide declines in coral calcification rate (~18.6%), linear extension rate (~15.4%) and skeletal bulk density (~3.9%) were observed over a 31-year period from 1980–2010. Decreases in calcification and linear extension rates were observed at five of the six locations and ranged from ~17.2-21.6% and ~11.4–19.6% respectively, while decline in skeletal bulk density was a consequence of significant reductions at only two locations (~6.9% and ~10.7%). A significant link between region-wide growth rates and average annual SST was found, and Porites spp. demonstrated a high thermal threshold of ~29.4°C before calcification rates declined. Responses at individual locations within the region were more variable with links between SST and calcification rates being significant at only four locations. Rates of sea temperature warming at locations in the Andaman Sea (Indian Ocean) (~1.3°C decade −1 ) were almost twice those in the South China Sea (Pacific Ocean) (~0.7°C decade −1 ), but this was not reflected in the magnitude of calcification declines at corresponding locations. Considering that massive Porites spp. are major reef-builders around Southeast Asia, this region-wide growth decline is a cause for concern for future reef accretion rates and resilience. However, this study suggests that the future rates and patterns of change within the region are unlikely to be uniform or dependent solely on the rates of change in the thermal environment. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Although striking changes have been documented in plant and animal phenology over the past century, less is known about how the fungal kingdom's phenology has been changing. A few recent studies have documented changes in fungal fruiting in Europe in the last few decades, but the geographic and taxonomic extent of these changes, the mechanisms behind these changes, and their relationships to climate, are not well understood. Here, we analyzed herbarium data of 274 species of fungi from Michigan to test the hypotheses that fruiting times of fungi depend on annual climate, and that responses depend on taxonomic and functional groups. We show that the fungal community overall fruits later in warmer and drier years, which has led to a shift toward later fruiting dates for autumn-fruiting species, consistent with existing evidence. However, we also show that these effects are highly variable among species and are partly explained by basic life history characteristics. Resulting differences in climate sensitivities are expected to affect community structure as climate changes. This study provides a unique picture of the climate-dependence of fungal phenology in North America and an approach for quantifying how individual species and broader fungal communities will respond to ongoing climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: A unique long-term phenological dataset of over 110,000 records of 1st cutting dates for haymaking across Germany, spanning the years 1951-2011 was examined. In addition, we analysed a long-term dataset on the beginning of flowering of meadow foxtail ( Alopecurus pratensis ) covering the last 20 years. We tested whether hay cutting dates (based on a human decision when to cut) showed trends, temperature relationships and spatial distribution similar to the development of this grassland species, and if these trends could be related to climate change. The timing of 1st hay cut was strongly influenced (p 〈 0.001) by altitude, latitude and longitude, revealing in particular an east-west gradient. Over the past 60 years there have been changes in the timing of hay cutting, with the majority of German federal states having significant (p 〈 0.05) advances of approximately 1 day per decade. Overall, the response to mean March- May temperature was highly significant (-2.87 days °C −1 ; p 〈 0.001). However, in the last 20 years no federal state experienced a significant advance and two were even significantly delayed. The temperature response in this post-1991 period became less or non significant for most of the federal states. We suggest that differences in agricultural land use and unequal uptakes of Agri-Environment Schemes (AES, which encourage later cutting) were likely to be responsible for the regional differences, while the general increase in AES appears to have confounded the overall trend in hay cutting in the last 20 years. Trends over time and responses to temperature were small relative to those associated with the phenology of meadow foxtail. The advance in phenology of this species is greater than the advance in hay cutting, implying that hay cutting may not be keeping pace with a changing climate, which may have a positive effect on grassland ecology. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The internal geological structure of the Northeast German Basin (NEGB) is affected by intense salt diapirism and by the presence of several stratified aquifer complexes of regional relevance. The shallow Quaternary to late Tertiary freshwater aquifer is separated from the underlying Mesozoic saline aquifers by an embedded Tertiary clay enriched aquitard (Rupelian Aquitard). An important feature of this aquitard is that hydraulic connections between the upper and lower aquifers do exist in areas where the Rupelian Aquitard is missing (hydrogeological windows). Three-dimensional thermohaline numerical simulations are carried out to investigate the effects of such hydrogeological windows in the Rupelian Aquitard on the resulting groundwater, temperature and salinity distributions. Numerical results suggest that hydrogeological windows act as preferential domains of hydraulic interconnectivity between the different aquifers at depth, and enable vigorous heat and mass transport which causes a mixing of warm and saline groundwater with cold and less saline groundwater within both aquifers. In areas where the Rupelian Aquitard confines the Mesozoic aquifer, dissolved solutes from major salt structures are transported laterally giving rise to plumes of variable salinity content ranging from few hundreds of meters to several tens of kilometers. Furthermore, destabilizing thermal buoyancy forces may overwhelm counteracting stabilizing salinity induced forces offside of salt domes. This may result in buoyant upward groundwater flow transporting heat and mass to shallower levels within the same Mesozoic Aquifer.

Description: Widespread disturbance within forested catchments typically increases runoff. However, following widespread fire in 1939 throughout south-east Australia Kuczera [1987] reported persistent reductions in runoff that were attributed to increased evapotranspiration from regenerating ‘ash’ forests. Kuczera projected ongoing reductions of water yield for ~150 years. In 2003 widespread fire in the headwaters of the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) again stimulated extensive regeneration of ash forests, raising the prospect of subsequent water yield reductions. To understand the potential impact of the 2003 bushfires we re-evaluated yield reductions from three of the catchments originally studied by Kuczera using the same calibration period. We also used an expanded pre-fire calibration period (1908-1938) based on data not originally available to Kuczera. The trend of post-fire water yield that we observed in 1939-affected catchments is qualitatively consistent with Kuczera's projections, but the quantitative details were, as expected, sensitive to the pre-fire calibration period used. We then used a simplified method to examine a further five ash-dominated catchments affected by the 2003 fires. We report relative reductions in mean annual stream flow in all five catchments and a statistically significant (α=0.05) post-fire reduction in one of five catchments. Post-fire yield reductions during the austral summer (October-April) were greater in relative magnitude in all five catchments and were statistically significant (α=0.05) in three of five catchments. We conclude that a post-bushfire Kuczera-type response may be widespread in regenerating ash forests. On that basis we anticipate post-fire yield reductions in ash forests elsewhere and conclude that further reductions in stream flow are likely in the MDB for at least another decade.

Description: The rate of vegetation recovery from boreal wildfire influences terrestrial carbon cycle processes and climate feedbacks by affecting the surface energy budget and land-atmosphere carbon exchange. Previous forest recovery assessments using satellite optical-infrared normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and tower CO 2 eddy covariance techniques indicate rapid vegetation recovery within 5 to 10 years, but these techniques are not directly sensitive to changes in vegetation biomass. Alternatively, the vegetation optical depth (VOD) parameter from satellite passive microwave remote sensing can detect changes in canopy biomass structure and may provide a useful metric of post-fire vegetation response to inform regional recovery assessments. We analyzed a multi-year (2003-2010) satellite VOD record from the NASA AMSR-E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS) sensor to estimate forest recovery trajectories for 14 large boreal fires from 2004 in Alaska and Canada. The VOD record indicated initial post-fire canopy biomass recovery within 3 to 7 years, lagging NDVI recovery by 1 to 5 years. The VOD lag was attributed to slower non-photosynthetic (woody) and photosynthetic (foliar) canopy biomass recovery, relative to the faster canopy greenness response indicated from the NDVI. The duration of VOD recovery to pre-burn conditions was also directly proportional (p〈0.01) to satellite (MODIS) estimated tree cover loss used as a metric of fire severity. Our results indicate that vegetation biomass recovery from boreal fire disturbance is generally slower than reported from previous assessments based solely on satellite optical-infrared remote sensing, while the VOD parameter enables more comprehensive assessments of boreal forest recovery. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Shifts in precipitation regimes are an inherent component of climate change, but in low energy systems are often assumed to be less important than changes in temperature. Because soil moisture is the hydrological variable most proximally linked to plant performance during the growing season in arctic-alpine habitats, it may offer the most useful perspective on the influence of changes in precipitation on vegetation. Here we quantify the influence of soil moisture for multiple vegetation properties at fine spatial scales, to determine the potential importance of soil moisture under changing climatic conditions. A fine-scale dataset, comprising vascular species cover and field-quantified ecologically-relevant environmental parameters, was analysed to determine the influence of soil moisture relative to other key abiotic predictors. Soil moisture was strongly related to community composition, species richness and the occurrence patterns of individual species, having a similar or greater influence than soil temperature, pH and solar radiation. Soil moisture varied considerably over short distances, and this fine-scale heterogeneity may contribute to offsetting the ecological impacts of changes in precipitation for species not limited to extreme soil moisture conditions. In conclusion, soil moisture is a key driver of vegetation properties, both at the species- and community-level, even in this low energy system. Soil moisture conditions represent an important mechanism through which changing climatic conditions impact vegetation, and advancing our predictive capability will therefore require a better understanding of how soil moisture mediates the effects of climate change on biota. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Long continuous seismic data recorded at five broadband seismic stations during 2006 at Campi Flegrei caldera have been analyzed. Introducing a coarse-grained method, we evaluate the time evolution of amplitude and polarization of the seismic noise in the frequency band common to Long-Period events. The series are modulated on tidal time scales: the root-mean square is basically dominated by solar contribution, while the azimuth of the polarization vector shows lunar diurnal and semidiurnal constituents. In addition, we find that in the frequency band common to Long-Period events the azimuths are polarized towards a specific area, suggesting that these persistent oscillations can be induced by the activity of the shallow geothermal reservoir.

Description: We report on the mineralogical assemblages found in the hyper-alkaline springs hosted on Liguria and Oman ophiolites based on exhaustive XRD and SEM analyses. In Liguria, hyper-alkaline springs produce a thin brownish calcite precipitate that covers the bedrock due to the concomitant atmospheric CO 2 uptake and neutralization of the hyper-alkaline waters. No brucite and portlandite minerals are observed. The discharge of alkaline waters in Oman ophiolite forms white-orange precipitates. Calcium carbonate minerals (calcite and/or aragonite) are the most abundant and ubiquitous precipitates and are produced by the same mechanism as in Liguria. This process is observed as a thin surface crust made of rhombohedral calcite. Morphological features of aragonite vary from needle-, bouquet-, dumbbell-, spheroidal-like habitus according to the origin of carbon, the temperature and the ionic composition of the hyper-alkaline springs, and the biochemical and organic compounds. Brucite is observed both at hyper-alkaline springs located at the thrust plane and at the paleo-Moho. The varying mixing proportions between the surface run-off waters and the hyper-alkaline ones control brucite precipitation. The Layered Double Hydroxide minerals occur solely in vicinity of hyper-alkaline springs emerging within the bedded gabbros. Finally, the dominant mineralogical associations we found in Oman (Ca-bearing carbonates and brucite) in a serpentinizing environment driven by the meteoric waters are surprisingly the same as those observed at the Lost City hydrothermal site in a totally marine environment.

Description: Global nitrogen (N) enrichment has resulted in increased nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emission that greatly contributes to climate change and stratospheric ozone destruction, but little is known about the N 2 O emissions from urban river networks receiving anthropogenic N inputs. We examined N 2 O saturation and emission in the Shanghai city river network, covering 6300 km 2 , over 27 months. The overall mean saturation and emission from 87 locations was 770% and 1.91 mg N 2 O-N•m −2 •d −1 , respectively. N 2 O saturation did not exhibit a clear seasonality, but the temporal pattern was co-regulated by both water temperature and N loadings. Rivers draining through urban and suburban areas receiving more sewage N inputs had higher N 2 O saturation and emission than those in rural areas. Regression analysis indicated that water ammonium (NH 4 + ) and dissolved oxygen (DO) level had great control on N 2 O production and were better predictors of N 2 O emission in urban watershed. About 0.29 Gg N 2 O-N•yr −1 N 2 O was emitted from the Shanghai river network annually, which was about 131% of IPCC's prediction using default emission values. Given the rapid progress of global urbanization, more study efforts, particularly on nitrification and its N 2 O yielding, are needed to better quantify the role of urban rivers in global riverine N 2 O emission. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: A computer program (PBUQ) that uses Monte Carlo simulations to propagate uncertainty through regression equations and the equation for the paleosol carbonate CO 2 paleobarometer is presented. PBUQ includes options for all of the common approaches to determining values for input variables and incorporates several recent advancements relevant to determining values for soil-respired CO 2 concentrations, δ 13 C values of respired CO 2 , δ 13 C values of atmospheric CO 2 and temperatures of soil carbonate formation. PBUQ is intended to improve confidence in paleoatmospheric CO 2 research by helping researchers draw statistically significant conclusions. PBUQ can also be used to attribute and partition error among various sources and thereby advance this technique. Sensitivity analysis indicates that S(z) is the largest source of uncertainty for most paleosols and that uncertainty is minimized for soils in which CO 2 is an evenly balanced mixture between soil-derived and atmospheric components. Evenly balanced mixtures are most likely for paleosols formed in deserts and for weakly-developed paleosols. Development of proxies for soil-respired CO 2 concentrations and δ 13 C values of soil-respired CO 2 specifically for such soils is perhaps the most crucial next step for improving this technique. Currently, calcic paleosols are best used to test the significance of trends and/or differences among time slices in paleoatmospheric CO 2 concentration. Application to quantifying Earth System Sensitivity will require large scale averaging of determinations from individual paleosols and/or reduced uncertainty associated with input variables.

Description: Long-lived detachment faults are now known to be important in tectonic evolution of slow-spreading mid-ocean ridges, and there is increasing evidence that fluid flow plays a critical role in development of detachment systems. Here we document a new manifestation of low-temperature hydrothermal venting associated with the detachment fault that formed Kane Megamullion ~3.3-2.1 m.y. ago in the western rift-valley wall of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Hydrothermal effects on the detachment surface include 1) cemented mounds of igneous rock and chalk debris containing hydrothermal Mn oxides and Fe oxyhydroxides, and 2) layered deposits of similar Fe-Mn minerals ± interbedded chalks. Mounds are roughly conical, ~1-10 meters high, and contain primarily basalts with lesser gabbro, serpentinite, and polymict breccia. The layered Fe-Mn-rich sediments are flat-bedded to contorted and locally are buckled into low-relief linear or polygonal ridges. We propose that the mounds formed where hydrothermal fluids discharged through the detachment hanging wall near the active fault trace. Hydrothermal precipitates cemented hanging-wall debris and welded it to the footwall, and this debris persisted as mounds as the footwall was exhumed and surrounding unconsolidated material sloughed off the sloping detachment surface. Some of the layered Fe-Mn-rich deposits may have precipitated from fluids discharging from the hanging-wall vents, but they also precipitated from low-temperature fluids venting from the exposed footwall through overlying chalks. Observed natural disturbance and abnormally thin hydrogenous Fe-Mn crusts on some contorted, hydrothermal Fe-Mn-rich chalks on ~2.7 Ma crust suggest diffuse venting that is geologically recent. Results of this study imply that there are significant fluid pathways through all parts of detachment systems and that low-temperature venting through fractured detachment footwalls may continue for several million years off-axis.

Description: Drought triggers are patterns in hydro-climatic variables that herald upcoming droughts and form the basis for mitigation plans. This study develops a new method for identification of triggers for hydrologic droughts by examining the association between the various hydro-climatic variables and streamflows. Since numerous variables influence streamflows to varying degrees, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is utilized for dimensionality reduction in predictor hydro-climatic variables. The joint dependence between the first two principal components, that explain over 98% of the variability in the predictor set, and streamflows is computed by a scale-free measure of association using asymmetric Archimedean copulas over two study watersheds in Indiana, USA, with unregulated streamflows. The M6 copula model is found to be suitable for the data and is utilized to find expected values and ranges of predictor hydro-climatic variables for different streamflow quantiles. This information is utilized to develop drought triggers for one-month lead time over the study areas. For the two study watersheds, soil moisture, precipitation and runoff are found to provide the fidelity to resolve amongst different drought classes. Combining the strengths of PCA for dimensionality reduction and copulas for building joint dependence allows the development of hydrologic drought triggers in an efficient manner.

Description: We present a unified asymptotic theory of rainfall extremes including annual maxima, excesses above high thresholds, and intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves that builds on previous findings and derive new non-asymptotic results. The analysis is based on stationary multifractal representations of rainfall and produces extensions of the familiar results from extreme value (EV) and extreme excess (EE) theories. The latter results apply to the T -yr maximum as and the excess above z as . By exploiting the scaling relationship among the distributions of rainfall intensity for different averaging durations d , the multifractal asymptotics include, in addition, results in the small-scale limits and with α 〉 0. In all cases the maximum distributions are of the generalized extreme value (GEV) type, but the index k depends on the limit considered. Multifractal models produce also asymptotic scaling results for the IDF curves. For the non-asymptotic case ( d and T finite), we obtain accurate approximations of the IDF curves and derive a semi-theoretical formula for the index k of the GEV model that best approximates the distribution of the annual maximum over a finite range of return-period intensities. The non-asymptotic analysis explains several observed deviations of rainfall extremes from the asymptotic predictions, such as the tendency of k to decrease as the averaging duration d increases and the tendency of the IDF curves to converge as d or the return period T increase.

Description: Remaining oil saturation established by waterflooding was measured in Indiana limestone in its original, water-wet state and under mixed-wet conditions established by adding organic acid to the oil phase. The porous plate technique was used to establish initial oil saturations ranging from S nwi = 0.23 to 0.93 under capillary-dominated conditions. For water-wet conditions, the residual oil saturation increased linearly with its initial saturation. In contrast, the remaining oil saturation under mixed-wet conditions, S nw , displayed three distinct regimes. First, S nw increased with its initial saturation up to S nwi = 0.58. Next, S nw decreased from S nwi = 0.58 to 0.76. Finally, S nw increased again as S nwi approached one. The non-monotonic dependence of S nw on S nwi at S nwi 〉 0.5 is well described by a concave-up quadratic function, and may be a salient feature of mixed-wet rocks.

Description: We present a general phenomenological formalism for the modeling of hydraulic head behaviour in naturally fractured aquifers. A non local in time version of the double porosity model is developed for Euclidean and fractal reservoirs. In the fractal case, time non-locality allows to find the geometric and topological factors responsible for subdiffusive behaviour in such heterogeneous environments. Opposite to other fractal models presented in the literature Chang and Yortsos [1990], our model include dead-ends-backbone interactions instead of matrix-fracture interactions with clear and well defined scaling exponents, thus giving a better characterization of the reservoir after such parameters are estimated. Applications to field tests are discussed. In particular, a distinctive short time head behaviour during well tests is found.

Description: The publicly available global discharge database is limited in spatial and temporal coverage. Although regional exceptions exist, the population of the database has declined over the past several years. As discharge is one of the most important parameters for modeling hydrological interactions, alternative measuring techniques must be sought. In the recent past, satellite altimetry has been investigated as an alternative for monitoring inland water level. In the present study, altimetry footprints in the vicinity of river gauging stations for the Amazon, Amur, Brahmaputra, Danube, Don, Mekong, Niger, Ob and Vistula rivers are analyzed for a functional relationship between the water level measurements from altimetry and discharge from the gauging stations. Such a functional relationship is conventionally established via a rating curve computed using simultaneous data. This study proposes a statistical approach based on quantile functions to infer this functional relation without the need for having synchronous datasets. The statistical approach provides the opportunity of extracting discharge values from altimetry data for rivers like the Mekong, Brahmaputra, Don and Vistula for which the discharge measurements at the selected gauges were made before the age of satellites. The algorithm is then validated over those rivers which do have discharge measurements available within periods of altimetry. Our validation shows that our algorithm is in the same quality range as the conventional approach. We are thus able to salvage pre-satellite altimetry discharge data and turn them into active use for the satellite altimetry time frame.

Description: P and S relative arrival time residuals from teleseismic earthquakes recorded on over 60 temporary AfricaArray broadband seismic stations deployed in Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia between 2007 and 2011 have been inverted, together with relative arrival time residuals from earthquakes recorded by previous deployments, for a tomographic image of mantle wave speed variations extending to a depth of 1200 km beneath eastern Africa. The image shows a low wave speed anomaly (LWA) well developed at shallow depths (100-200 km) beneath the Eastern and Western branches of the Cenozoic East African rift system and northwestern Zambia, and a fast wave speed anomaly at depths ≤ 350 km beneath the central and northern parts of the East African Plateau and the eastern and central parts of Zambia. At depths ≥350 km the LWA is most prominent under the central and southern parts of the East African Plateau and dips to the southwest beneath northern Zambia, extending to a depth of at least 900 km. The amplitude of the LWA is consistent with a ~150-300 K thermal perturbation, and its depth extent indicates that the African superplume, originally identified as a lower mantle anomaly, is likely a whole mantle structure. A superplume extending from the core-mantle boundary to the surface implies an origin for the Cenozoic extension, volcanism and plateau uplift in eastern Africa rooted in the dynamics of the lower mantle.

Description: In the Garibaldi Belt, the northern segment of the Cascade arc, basalts at Bridge River Cones, Salal Glacier, and Mt. Meager (BSM volcanic centers) are alkalic, atypical for an arc setting. Subduction signatures are negligible or absent from primitive alkalic basalts from Salal Glacier and Bridge River, while altered oceanic crust may have contributed a minimal amount of fluid at Mt. Meager. More evolved BSM basalts display trace element signatures considered typical of arc lavas, but this is a consequence of deep crustal assimilation rather than primary input from the subducted slab. Primary BSM basalts represent 3-8% melts that segregated from enriched garnet lherzolite at significantly higher temperatures and pressures (70-105 km) than calc-alkaline Cascade arc basalts. The BSM mantle source is significantly more incompatible element-enriched than the depleted mantle tapped by calc-alkaline Cascade arc basalts. The BSM basalts are also isotopically distinct from calc-alkaline Cascade arc basalts, more similar to MORB and intraplate basalts of the NE Pacific and NW North America. The relatively deep, hot, and geochemically distinct mantle source for BSM basalts is consistent with upwelling asthenosphere. The BSM volcanic centers are close to the projected trace of the Nootka fault, which forms the boundary between the subducting Juan de Fuca plate and the near-stagnant Explorer plate. A gap or attenuated zone between the plates may promote upwelling of enriched asthenosphere that undergoes low-degree decompression melting to generate alkalic basalts that are essentially free of slab input yet occur in an arc setting.

Description: The temporal evolution of the mantle melting processes in the Asal Rift is evaluated from the chemical composition of 56 new lava flows sampled along 10 km of the rift axis and 9 km off-axis (i.e., erupted within the last 620 ky). Petrological and primary geochemical results show that most of the samples of the inner floor of the Asal Rift are affected by plagioclase accumulation. Trace element ratios and major element compositions corrected for mineral accumulation and crystallization show a symmetric pattern relative to the rift axis and preserved a clear signal of mantle melting depth variations. While FeO, Fe 8.0 , Zr/Y and (Dy/Yb) N decrease from the rift shoulders to the rift axis, SiO 2 , Na/Ti, Lu/Hf increase and Na 2 O and Na 8.0 are constant across the rift. These variations are qualitatively consistent with shallow melting beneath the rift axis and deeper melting for off-axis lava flows. Na 8.0 and Fe 8.0 contents show that beneath the rift axis, melting paths are shallow, from 81 ± 4 km to 43 ± 5 km. These melting paths are consistent with adiabatic melting in normal-temperature fertile asthenosphere, beneath an extensively thinned mantle lithosphere. On the contrary, melting on the rift shoulders (from 107 ± 7 km to 67 ± 8 km) occurred beneath thicker lithosphere, requiring a mantle solidus temperature 100 ± 40 °C hotter. In this geodynamic environment, the calculated rate of lithospheric thinning appears to be 4.0 ± 2.0 cm yr -1 , a value close to the mean spreading rate (2.9 ± 0.2 cm yr -1 ) over the last 620 ky.

Description: Our ability to project the impact of global change on marine ecosystem is limited by our poor understanding on how to predict species sensitivity. For example, the impact of ocean acidification is highly species-specific, even in closely related taxa. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that the tolerance range of a given species to decreased pH corresponds to their natural range of exposure. Larvae of the green sea urchin Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis were cultured from fertilization to metamorphic competence (29 days) under a wide range of pH (from pH T =8.0/ p CO 2 ≈480μatm to pH T =6.5/ p CO 2 ≈20000μatm) covering present (from pH T 8.7 to 7.6), projected near-future's variability (from pH T 8.3 to 7.2) and beyond. Decreasing pH impacted all tested parameters (mortality, symmetry, growth, morphometry and respiration). Development of normal, although showing morphological plasticity, swimming larvae was possible as low as pH T ≥7.0. Within that range, decreasing pH increased mortality and asymmetry and decreased body length growth rate. Larvae raised at lowered pH and with similar body length had shorter arms and a wider body. Relative to a given body length, respiration rates and stomach volume both increased with decreasing pH suggesting changes in energy budget. At the lowest pHs (pH T ≤6.5), all the tested parameters were strongly negatively affected and no larva survived past 13 days post-fertilization. In conclusion, sea urchin larvae appeared to be highly plastic when exposed to decreased pH until a physiological tipping point at pH T =7.0. However, this plasticity was associated with direct (increased mortality) and indirect (decreased growth) consequences for fitness. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: With a pace of about twice the observed rate of global warming, the temperature on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (Earth's “third pole”) has increased by 0.2 °C per decade over the past 50 years, which results in significant permafrost thawing and glacier retreat. Our review suggested that warming enhanced net primary production (NPP) and soil respiration, decreased methane (CH 4 ) emissions from wetlands and increased CH 4 consumption of meadows, but might increase CH 4 emissions from lakes. Warming induced permafrost thawing and glaciers melting would also result in substantial emission of old carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and CH 4 . Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emission was not stimulated by warming itself, but might be slightly enhanced by wetting. However, there are many uncertainties in such biogeochemical cycles under climate change. Human activities (e.g., grazing, land cover changes) further modified the biogeochemical cycles and amplified such uncertainties on the plateau. If the projected warming and wetting continues, the future biogeochemical cycles will be more complicated. So facing research in this field is an ongoing challenge of integrating field observations with process-based ecosystem models to predict the impacts of future climate change and human activities at various temporal and spatial scales. To reduce the uncertainties and improve the precision of the predictions of the impacts of climate change and human activities on biogeochemical cycles, efforts should focus on conducting more field observation studies, integrating data within improved models, and developing new knowledge about coupling among carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus biogeochemical cycles as well as about the role of microbes in these cycles. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Some species are adapting to changing environments by expanding their geographic ranges. Understanding whether range shifts will be accompanied by increased exposure to other threats is crucial to predicting when and where new populations could successfully establish. If species overlap to a greater extent with human development under climate change, this could form ecological traps which are attractive to dispersing individuals, but the use of which substantially reduces fitness. Until recently, the core nesting range for the Critically Endangered Kemp's ridley sea turtle ( Lepidochelys kempii ) was ~1,000km of sparsely populated coastline in Tamaulipas, Mexico. Over the past twenty-five years, this species has expanded its range into populated areas of coastal Florida (〉1,500km outside the historical range), where nesting now occurs annually. Suitable Kemp's ridley nesting habitat has persisted for at least 140,000 years in the western Gulf of Mexico, and climate change models predict further nesting range expansion into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and northern Atlantic Ocean. Range expansion is 6-12% more likely to occur along uninhabited stretches of coastline than are current nesting beaches, suggesting that novel nesting areas will not be associated with high levels of anthropogenic disturbance. Although the high breeding-site fidelity of some migratory species could limit adaptation to climate change, rapid population recovery following effective conservation measures may enhance opportunities for range expansion. Anticipating the interactive effects of past or contemporary conservation measures, climate change, and future human activities will help focus long-term conservation strategies. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Global Positioning System (GPS) and Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR) data, collected from July 2007 to July 2008 on Mt. Etna, are analysed to define the dynamics preceding and accompanying the onset of the eruption on 13 May 2008. Short and long-term comparisons have been made on both GPS and radar data, covering similar time windows. Thanks to the availability of three GPS surveys the year before the eruption onset, an increase in the seawards movement of the NE flank of the volcano has been detected in the few months before the dike intrusion. The GPS ground deformation pattern also shows a slight inflation centred on the western side of the volcano in the pre-eruptive long-term comparison (from July 2007 to May 2008). The GPS has been integrated with DInSAR data by the SISTEM approach, to take advantage of the different methodologies and provide high spatial sampling of the 3D ground displacement pattern. We inverted the SISTEM results in order to model the pressure source causing the observed pre-eruptive inflation. The subsequent emplacement of the eruptive dike was imaged by two GPS surveys carried out on a dense network over the uppermost part of the volcano on May 6 and 13, i.e. a few days before and a few hours after the beginning of the eruption. We inverted this comparison to define the position, geometry and kinematics of the dike. The dike intrusion was also imaged by DInSAR data with temporal baselines of 2-3 months, which confirm strong displacements localized on the summit area, rapidly decreasing towards the middle flanks of the volcano, as detected by very short-term GPS data; furthermore, the comparison between DInSAR and GPS data highlighted the presence of a depressurizing source localized beneath the upper south-western area, acting just after the dike intrusion. Finally, the long period (one year) GPS and DInSAR data were integrated by SISTEM in order to finely depict the 3D ground deformation pattern with the highest spatial resolution. The long-period data allowed the complex kinematics of the volcano to be finely imaged and highlighting the interaction between flank dynamics and magma injection.

Description: We combine satellite and ground observations during 1950-2011 to study the long-term links between multiple climate (air temperature and cryospheric dynamics) and vegetation (greenness and atmospheric CO2 concentrations) indicators of the growing season of northern ecosystems (〉45oN) and their connection with the carbon cycle. During the last three decades, the thermal potential growing season has lengthened by about 10.5 days ( p 〈 0.01, 1982–2011), which is unprecedented in the context of the past 60 years. The overall lengthening has been stronger and more significant in Eurasia (12.6 days, p 〈 0.01) than North America (6.2 days, p 〉 0.05). The photosynthetic growing season has closely tracked the pace of warming and extension of the potential growing season in spring, but not in autumn when factors such as light and moisture limitation may constrain photosynthesis. The autumnal extension of the photosynthetic growing season since 1982 appears to be about half that of the thermal potential growing season, yielding a smaller lengthening of the photosynthetic growing season (6.7 days at circumpolar scale, p 〈 0.01). Nevertheless, when integrated over the growing season, photosynthetic activity has closely followed the interannual variations and warming trend in cumulative growing season temperatures. This lengthening and intensification of the photosynthetic growing season, manifested principally over Eurasia rather than North America, is associated with a long-term increase (22.2% since 1972, p 〈 0.01) in the amplitude of the CO2 annual cycle at northern latitudes. The springtime extension of the photosynthetic and potential growing seasons has apparently stimulated earlier and stronger net CO2 uptake by northern ecosystems, while the autumnal extension is associated with an earlier net release of CO2 to the atmosphere. These contrasting responses may be critical in determining the impact of continued warming on northern terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.