ALBERT

Description: We present a methodology for infrasonic remote sensing of winds in the stratosphere that does not require discrete ground-truth events. Our method uses measured time delays between arrays of sensors to provide group velocities (referred to here as celerities) and then minimizes the difference between observed and predicted celerities by perturbing an initial atmospheric specification. Because we focus on interarray propagation effects, it is not necessary to simulate the full propagation path from source to receiver. This feature allows us to use a relatively simple forward model that is applicable over short-regional distances. By focusing on stratospheric returns, we show that our non-linear inversion scheme converges much better if the starting model contains a strong stratospheric duct. Using the Horizontal Wind Model (HWM)/Mass Spectrometer Incoherent Scatter (MSISE) empirical climatology as a starting model, we demonstrate that the inversion scheme is robust to large uncertainties in backazimuth, but that uncertainties in the measured trace velocity and celerity require the use of prior constraints to ensure suitable convergence. The inversion of synthetic data, using realistic estimates of measurement error, shows that our scheme will nevertheless improve upon a starting model under most scenarios. The inversion scheme is applied to infrasound data recorded from a large event on 2010 December 25, which is presumed to be a bolide, using data from a nine-element infrasound network in Utah. We show that our recorded data require a stronger zonal wind speed in the stratosphere than is present in the HWM profile, and are more consistent with the Ground-to-Space (G2S) profile.

Description: Coda- Q is a stochastic parameter reflecting the heterogeneities of medium that seismic waves travel through. We confirmed that coda- Q would vary with the stress loaded to an elastic medium using numerical simulations of seismic wave propagation. When the stress is loaded, cracks in the crust could either close or newly open. The closure and opening of the cracks are not random but depending on the magnitude and the direction of the stress and the crack aspect ratio. The cracks in the medium after loading stress could be aligned in a specific orientation, and elastic wave velocity field would become anisotropic due to the alignment of specific crack orientations. Elastic wave velocity is in general faster along the direction corresponding with the crack orientation while slower along the perpendicular direction. In the numerical simulation, the effect of anisotropy in elastic wave velocity field due to the selective closure and opening of the cracks is calculated using a 2-D finite difference method assuming elastic wave velocity to be a function of the magnitude of loaded stress. The coda- Q calculated from seismic waves simulated for a model varies when the averaged normal stress changes. Our simulation indicated that the sensitivity of coda- Q –1 , that is the reciprocal of the coda- Q , would be 1.0 10 –2 (1.0 MPa –1 ) against the magnitude of the confining pressure and 1.0 10 –3 (1.0 deg –1 ) against the direction of principal stress. We would like to conclude that coda- Q , a stochastic parameter reflecting heterogeneities of subsurface medium, could become a quantitative state indicator of the stress field of the medium where seismic waves propagate through. Spatiotemporal variation of coda- Q reflects change in the stress field in the crust.

Description: How do body-wave traveltimes constrain the Earth's radial (1-D) seismic structure? Existing 1-D seismological models underpin 3-D seismic tomography and earthquake location algorithms. It is therefore crucial to assess the quality of such 1-D models, yet quantifying uncertainties in seismological models is challenging and thus often ignored. Ideally, quality assessment should be an integral part of the inverse method. Our aim in this study is twofold: (i) we show how to solve a general Bayesian non-linear inverse problem and quantify model uncertainties, and (ii) we investigate the constraint on spherically symmetric P -wave velocity ( V P ) structure provided by body-wave traveltimes from the EHB bulletin (phases Pn , P , PP and PKP ). Our approach is based on artificial neural networks, which are very common in pattern recognition problems and can be used to approximate an arbitrary function. We use a Mixture Density Network to obtain 1-D marginal posterior probability density functions (pdfs), which provide a quantitative description of our knowledge on the individual Earth parameters. No linearization or model damping is required, which allows us to infer a model which is constrained purely by the data. We present 1-D marginal posterior pdfs for the 22 V P parameters and seven discontinuity depths in our model. P -wave velocities in the inner core, outer core and lower mantle are resolved well, with standard deviations of ~0.2 to 1 per cent with respect to the mean of the posterior pdfs. The maximum likelihoods of V P are in general similar to the corresponding ak135 values, which lie within one or two standard deviations from the posterior means, thus providing an independent validation of ak135 in this part of the radial model. Conversely, the data contain little or no information on P -wave velocity in the D '' layer, the upper mantle and the homogeneous crustal layers. Further, the data do not constrain the depth of the discontinuities in our model. Using additional phases available in the ISC bulletin, such as PcP , PKKP and the converted phases SP and ScP , may enhance the resolvability of these parameters. Finally, we show how the method can be extended to obtain a posterior pdf for a multidimensional model space. This enables us to investigate correlations between model parameters.

Description: We have developed a network optimization method for regional-scale microseismic monitoring networks and applied it to optimize the densification of the existing seismic network in northeastern Switzerland. The new network will build the backbone of a 10-yr study on the neotectonic activity of this area that will help to better constrain the seismic hazard imposed on nuclear power plants and waste repository sites. This task defined the requirements regarding location precision (0.5 km in epicentre and 2 km in source depth) and detection capability [magnitude of completeness M c  = 1.0 ( M L )]. The goal of the optimization was to find the geometry and size of the network that met these requirements. Existing stations in Switzerland, Germany and Austria were considered in the optimization procedure. We based the optimization on the simulated annealing approach proposed by Hardt & Scherbaum, which aims to minimize the volume of the error ellipsoid of the linearized earthquake location problem ( D -criterion). We have extended their algorithm to: calculate traveltimes of seismic body waves using a finite difference ray tracer and the 3-D velocity model of Switzerland, calculate seismic body-wave amplitudes at arbitrary stations assuming the Brune source model and using scaling and attenuation relations recently derived for Switzerland, and estimate the noise level at arbitrary locations within Switzerland using a first-order ambient seismic noise model based on 14 land-use classes defined by the EU-project CORINE and open GIS data. We calculated optimized geometries for networks with 10–35 added stations and tested the stability of the optimization result by repeated runs with changing initial conditions. Further, we estimated the attainable magnitude of completeness ( M c ) for the different sized optimal networks using the Bayesian Magnitude of Completeness (BMC) method introduced by Mignan et al. The algorithm developed in this study is also applicable to smaller optimization problems, for example, small local monitoring networks. Possible applications are volcano monitoring, the surveillance of induced seismicity associated with geotechnical operations and many more. Our algorithm is especially useful to optimize networks in populated areas with heterogeneous noise conditions and if complex velocity structures or existing stations have to be considered.

Description: Fluid injection in and withdrawal from wells are basic procedures in mining activities and deep resources exploitation, such as oil and gas extraction, permeability enhancement for geothermal exploitation and waste fluid disposal. All of these activities have the potential to induce seismicity, as exemplified by the 2006 Basel earthquake ( M L 3.4). Despite several decades of experience, the mechanisms of induced seismicity are not known in detail, which prevents effective risk assessment and/or mitigation. In this study, we provide an interpretation of induced seismicity based on computation of Coulomb stress changes that result from fluid injection/withdrawal at depth, mainly focused on the interpretation of induced seismicity due to stimulation of a geothermal reservoir. Seismicity is, theoretically, more likely where Coulomb stress changes are larger. For modeling purposes, we simulate the thermodynamic evolution of a system after fluid injection/withdrawal. The associated changes in pressure and temperature are subsequently considered as sources of incremental stress changes, which are then converted to Coulomb stress changes on favourably oriented faults, taking into account the background regional stress. Numerical results are applied to the water injection that was performed to create the fractured reservoir at the enhanced-geothermal-system site, Soultz-sous-Forets (France). Our approach describes well the observed seismicity, and provides an explanation for the different behaviors of a system when fluids are injected or withdrawn.

Description: We report on a broad-band high-resolution attenuation model for the North China Craton and surrounding regions based on regional Lg -wave data. Vertical broad-band waveforms recorded at 39 stations from 176 crustal earthquakes are collected to extract the Lg -wave amplitude spectra between 0.05 and 10.0 Hz. We use the dual-station method to generate a preliminary Q Lg model and use it as the initial model. Then, we combine the dual- and single-station data together to jointly invert the Q Lg distribution and Lg source excitation functions. These inversions are conducted independently at individual frequencies without using any a priori assumption about the frequency dependences in Q Lg and source terms. The maximum spatial resolution is approximately 1° x 1° in well-covered areas for frequencies between 0.05 and 2.0 Hz. The Q Lg image is then used to determine the relationship between the attenuation and different geological structures. Results show an average Q 0 (1 Hz Q Lg ) of 374 for the entire North China Craton with an increasing trend from east to west. Average Q 0 values are 337, 361 and 421 for the east, central and west blocks, respectively. For the surrounding regions, the Eastern Tibetan plateau has a very low Q 0 of 188, while the Northeast China Plate and the Tianshan–Xingmeng fold belts are characterized by high Q 0 values of 506 and 424, respectively. We also investigate regional variations of the Lg attenuation in low-frequency band between 0.2 and 1.0 Hz.

Description: We present a systematic study on the influence of pressure (0.1–600 MPa), temperature (750–1200 °C), carbon dioxide fugacity (log f CO 2  = –4.41 to 3.60) and time (2–12 hr) on the chemical and physical properties of carbonate rock. Our experiments aim to reproduce the conditions at the periphery of magma chamber where carbonate host rock is influenced by, but not readily assimilated by, magma. This permits the investigation of the natural conditions at which circulating fluids/gases promote infiltration reactions typical of metasomatic skarns that can involve large volumes of subvolcanic carbonate basements. Results show that, providing that carbon dioxide is retained in the pore space, decarbonation does not proceed at any magmatic pressure and temperature. However, when the carbon dioxide is free to escape, decarbonation can occur rapidly and is not hindered by a low initial porosity or permeability. Together with carbon dioxide and lime, portlandite, a mineral commonly found in voluminous metasomatic skarns, readily forms during carbonate decomposition. Post-experimental analyses highlight that thermal microcracking, a result of the highly anisotropic thermal expansion of calcite, exerts a greater influence on rock physical properties (porosity, ultrasonic wave velocities and elastic moduli) than decarbonation. Our data suggest that this will be especially true at the margins of dykes or magma bodies, where temperatures can reach up to 1200 °C. However, rock compressive strength is significantly reduced by both thermal cracking and decarbonation, explained by the relative weakness of lime + portlandite compared to calcite, and an increase in grain size with increasing temperature. Metasomatic skarns, whose petrogenetic reactions may involve a few tens of cubic kilometres, could therefore represent an important source of volcanic instability.

Description: The scattering of plane SH waves incident on a circular sectorial canyon is considered. An accurate region-matching technique is applied to derive a rigorous series solution. Appropriate wavefunctions are employed to describe antiplane motions. Judicious basis functions, involving Gegenbauer polynomials, are well utilized to correctly capture the singular behaviour in stress fields near the canyon bottom. The enforcement of matching conditions on the auxiliary boundary leads to the determination of unknown coefficients. Plotted results demonstrate the influence of pertinent parameters on surface and subsurface motions. Both steady-state and transient results are included. The solution technique proposed achieves a considerable reduction in the computational effort, facilitating benchmark computations. The derived series solution enriches the limited list of series solutions presently known for canyon problems related to SH -wave scattering.

Description: We present 3-D models of the P- and S -wave velocity distributions in the crust and uppermost mantle beneath Sicily, Calabria (Southern Italy), and surrounding submerged areas, obtained by tomographic inversion of traveltimes of regional body waves phases. Our method combines double-difference tomographic inversion with a post-processing procedure [Weighted Average Model method (WAM)]. This procedure was applied to a set of models consistent with the experimental data. We tested the ability of the WAM procedure to mitigate the uncertainty associated with the arbitrary nature of the many input parameters required for each inversion. The local reliability and resolution of the obtained models have been assessed through: synthetic tests, experimental tests carried out with independent data sets and unconventional tests based on the analysis of the internal consistency of the P - and S -velocity models. The tomographic images provide a detailed sketch of P- and S- wave velocity anomalies. These clearly show the shape of the Sicilian-Maghrebian belt beneath Sicily and Calabrian Arc at different depths. Low V P and Vs bodies are imaged beneath Stromboli and Marsili volcanoes in the southern Tyrrhenian, whereas high and low seismic velocities alternate beneath the Etna giving inferences on the possible depth of the mantle melting feeding the volcano. In the upper crust, the main sedimentary basins and tectonic features are also well imaged. Finally, tomographic cross sections show the trend of the Moho in the study area, where its depth ranges between 35 and 40 km beneath the Sicilian belt and between 15 and 22 km in the southern Tyrrhenian basin and Ionian Sea.

Description: We used two tracks of ALOS PALSAR images to investigate the focal mechanism and slip distribution of the 2011 March 24, M W 6.8 Burma strike-slip earthquake. Three different SAR techniques, namely conventional interferometry, SAR pixel offsets (SPO) and multiple-aperture InSAR (MAI), were employed to obtain the coseismic surface deformation fields along the ~30 km length of the fault rupture. Along-track measurements from SPO and MAI techniques show a high correlation, and were subsequently used to precisely determine the location and extent of the surface fault trace. The best-fitting fault model geometry derived from an iterative inversion technique suggests that the rupture occurred on a near-vertical sinistral strike-slip fault west of the Nam Ma fault with a strike of 70°. A maximum slip of 4.2 m occurs at a depth of 2.5 km, with significant slip constrained only to the upper 10 km of the crust.

Description: Knowledge of the mantle reflectivity structure is highly dependent on our ability to efficiently extract, and properly interpret, small seismic arrivals. Among the various data types and techniques, long-period SS/PP precursors and high-frequency receiver functions are routinely utilized to increase the confidence of the recovered mantle stratifications at distinct spatial scales. However, low resolution and a complex Fresnel zone are glaring weaknesses of SS precursors, while over-reliance on receiver distribution is a formidable challenge for the analysis of converted waves from oceanic regions. A promising high frequency alternative to receiver functions is P ' P ' precursors, which are capable of resolving mantle structures at vertical and lateral resolution of ~5 and ~200 km, respectively, owing to their spectral content, shallow angle of incidence and near-symmetric Fresnel zones. This study presents a novel processing method for both SS (or PP) and P ' P ' precursors based on deconvolution, stacking, Radon transform and depth migration. A suite of synthetic tests is performed to quantify the fidelity and stability of this method under different data conditions. Our multiresolution survey of the mantle at targeted areas near Nazca-South America subduction zone reveal both olivine and garnet related transitions at depths below 400 km. We attribute a depressed 660 to thermal variations, whereas compositional variations atop the upper-mantle transition zone are needed to explain the diminished or highly complex reflected/scattered signals from the 410 km discontinuity. We also observe prominent P ' P ' reflections within the transition zone, and the anomalous amplitudes near the plate boundary zone indicate a sharp (~10 km thick) transition that likely resonates with the frequency content of P ' P ' precursors. The migration of SS precursors in this study shows no evidence of split 660 reflections, but potential majorite–ilmenite (590–640 km) and ilmenite–perovskite transitions (740–750 km) are identified based on similarly processed high-frequency P ' P ' precursors. Additional findings of severely scattered energy in the lithosphere and distinct lower mantle reflections at ~800 km could be potentially important but require further verifications. Overall, our improved imaging methods and the strong sensitivity of P ' P ' precursors to the existence, depth, sharpness and strength of reflective structures offer significant future promise for the understanding of mantle mineralogy and dynamics.

Description: Time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment requires a stochastic description of earthquake occurrences. While short-term seismicity models are well-constrained by observations, the recurrences of characteristic on-fault earthquakes are only derived from theoretical considerations, uncertain palaeo-events or proxy data. Despite the involved uncertainties and complexity, simple statistical models for a quasi-period recurrence of on-fault events are implemented in seismic hazard assessments. To test the applicability of statistical models, such as the Brownian relaxation oscillator or the stress release model, we perform a systematic comparison with deterministic simulations based on rate- and state-dependent friction, high-resolution representations of fault systems and quasi-dynamic rupture propagation. For the specific fault network of the Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany, we run both stochastic and deterministic model simulations based on the same fault geometries and stress interactions. Our results indicate that the stochastic simulators are able to reproduce the first-order characteristics of the major earthquakes on isolated faults as well as for coupled faults with moderate stress interactions. However, we find that all tested statistical models fail to reproduce the characteristics of strongly coupled faults, because multisegment rupturing resulting from a spatiotemporally correlated stress field is underestimated in the stochastic simulators. Our results suggest that stochastic models have to be extended by multirupture probability distributions to provide more reliable results.

Description: Stress waves, known as acoustic emissions (AEs), are released by localized inelastic deformation events during the progressive failure of brittle rocks. Although several numerical models have been developed to simulate the deformation and damage processes of rocks, such as non-linear stress–strain behaviour and localization of failure, only a limited number have been capable of providing quantitative information regarding the associated seismicity. Moreover, the majority of these studies have adopted a pseudo-static approach based on elastic strain energy dissipation that completely disregards elastodynamic effects. This paper describes a new AE modelling technique based on the combined finite-discrete element method (FEM/DEM), a numerical tool that simulates material failure by explicitly considering fracture nucleation and propagation in the modelling domain. Given the explicit time integration scheme of the solver, stress wave propagation and the effect of radiated seismic energy can be directly captured. Quasi-dynamic seismic information is extracted from a FEM/DEM model with a newly developed algorithm based on the monitoring of internal variables (e.g. relative displacements and kinetic energy) in proximity to propagating cracks. The AE of a wing crack propagation model based on this algorithm are cross-analysed by traveltime inversion and energy estimation from seismic recordings. Results indicate a good correlation of AE initiation times and locations, and scaling of energies, independently calculated with the two methods. Finally, the modelling technique is validated by simulating a laboratory compression test on a granite sample. The micromechanical parameters of the heterogeneous model are first calibrated to reproduce the macroscopic stress–strain response measured during standard laboratory tests. Subsequently, AE frequency–magnitude statistics, spatial clustering of source locations and the evolution of AE rate are investigated. The distribution of event magnitude tends to decay as power law while the spatial distribution of sources exhibits a fractal character, in agreement with experimental observations. Moreover, the model can capture the decrease of seismic b value associated with the macrorupture of the rock sample and the transition of AE spatial distribution from diffuse, in the pre-peak stage, to strongly localized at the peak and post-peak stages, as reported in a number of published laboratory studies. In future studies, the validated FEM/DEM-AE modelling technique will be used to obtain further insights into the micromechanics of rock failure with potential applications ranging from laboratory-scale microcracking to engineering-scale processes (e.g. excavations within mines, tunnels and caverns, petroleum and geothermal reservoirs) to tectonic earthquakes triggering.

Description: We used strong-motion records from the 2012 May 20 and 29 Emilia-Romagna earthquakes ( M w 6.1 and 5.9, respectively) and four aftershocks with magnitudes ranging between 4.9 and 5.5 to analyse the S -wave spectral amplitude decay with distance and estimate acceleration source functions and site effects. The data set consists of six earthquakes, 44 stations and 248 records with hypocentral distances in the range 10 〈 r  〈 100 km. We rotated the accelerograms to calculate transverse and radial components of the acceleration spectrum. We found non-parametric attenuation functions that describe the spectral amplitude decay of SH and SV waves with distance at 60 different frequencies between 0.1 and 40 Hz. These attenuation functions provide an estimate of the quality factor Q at each frequency analysed. Assuming that geometrical spreading is 1/ r for r  ≤ r x and 1/( r x r ) 0.5 for r  〉 r x with r x  = 60 km and normalizing at 15 km (the recording distance where the attenuation functions start to decay), we find that the average Q for SH waves can be approximated by Q SH  = 82 ± 1 f  1.2±0.02 and by Q SV  = 79 ± 1 f  1.24±0.03 for SV waves in the frequency range 0.10 ≤ f  ≤ 10.7 Hz. At higher frequencies, 11.8 ≤ f  ≤ 40 Hz, the frequency dependence of Q weakens and is approximated by Q SH  = 301 ± 1 f   0.36±0.04 and Q SV  = 384 ± 1 f  0.28±0.04 . These results indicate that the S -wave attenuation is radially isotropic at local distances in the epicentral area. Nevertheless, we used these attenuation parameters separately to correct the radial (with Q SV ) and transverse (with Q SH ) components of the acceleration spectra and to separate source and site effects using a non-parametric spectral inversion scheme. We found that the source function of the main event and the bigger aftershocks show enhanced low frequency radiation between 0.4 and 3.0 Hz. We converted the source functions into far-field source acceleration spectra and interpreted the resulting source spectra in terms of Brune's model. The stress drops obtained range between approximately 0.9 and 2.9 MPa. Although all the recording stations used are located in the Po Plain, the site functions obtained from the spectral inversion show important amplification variability between the sites. We compared these site functions with the average horizontal to vertical spectral ratios calculated for each station, and we found consistent results for most stations.

Description: At present continental to global scale flood forecasting predicts at a point discharge, with little attention to detail and accuracy of local scale inundation predictions. Yet, inundation variables are of interest and all flood impacts are inherently local in nature. This paper proposes a large scale flood inundation ensemble forecasting model that uses best available data and modeling approaches in data scarce areas. The model was built for the Lower Zambezi River to demonstrate current flood inundation forecasting capabilities in large data-scarce regions. ECMWF ensemble forecast (ENS) data were used to force the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) hydrological model, which simulated and routed daily flows to the input boundary locations of a 2-D hydrodynamic model. Efficient hydrodynamic modeling over large areas still requires model grid resolutions that are typically larger than the width of channels that play a key a role in flood wave propagation. We therefore employed a novel sub-grid channel scheme to describe the river network in detail whilst representing the floodplain at an appropriate scale. The modeling system was calibrated using channel water levels from satellite laser altimetry and then applied to predict the February 2007 Mozambique floods. Model evaluation showed that simulated flood edge cells were within a distance of between one and two model resolutions compared to an observed flood edge and inundation area agreement was on average 86%. Our study highlights that physically plausible parameter values and satisfactory performance can be achieved at spatial scales ranging from tens to several hundreds of thousands of km 2 and at model grid resolutions up to several km 2 .

Description: A class of capillary flows in unsaturated porous media is characterized by quasi-steady viscous flow confined behind curved air-water interfaces and within liquid bodies held by capillary forces along crevices and grain contacts. The geometry of the connected capillary liquid network within the pore space resembles channels that form between adjacent bubbles in foam (Plateau borders) with solid grains representing gas bubbles in foam. For simplified channel geometry we combine expressions for viscous flow with continuity considerations to describe the evolution of the channels cross-sectional area during gravity drainage. This formulation enables modeling of unsaturated flow without invoking the Richards equation and associated hydraulic functions. We adapt a formalism originally developed for foam “free drainage” (drainage under gravity) or “forced drainage” (infiltration front motion) to a class of unsaturated flows in porous media that require a few input parameters only (mean channel corner angle, air entry value and porosity) for certain initial and boundary conditions. We demonstrate that the reduction in capillary channel cross section yields a consistent description of self-regulating internal fluxes towards attainment of the so-called “field capacity” in soil and provides an alternative method for interpretation of outflow experiments for prescribed pressure boundary conditions. Additionally, the geometrically-explicit formulation provides a more intuitive picture of capillary flows across textural boundaries (changes in channel cross-section and number of channels). The foam drainage methodology expands the range of tools available for analyses of unsaturated flow processes and offers more realistic links between liquid configuration and flow dynamics in unsaturated porous media.

Description: Synthetic streamflows at different sites in a river basin are needed for planning, operation and management of water resources projects. Modeling the temporal and spatial dependence structure of monthly streamflow at different sites is generally required. In this study, the maximum entropy copula method is proposed for multisite monthly streamflow simulation, in which the temporal and spatial dependence structure is imposed as constraints to derive the maximum entropy copula. The monthly streamflows at different sites are then generated by sampling from the conditional distribution. A case study for the generation of monthly streamflow at three sites in the Colorado River basin illustrates the application of the proposed method. Simulated streamflow from the maximum entropy copula is in satisfactory agreement with observed streamflow.

Description: The Krycklan Catchment Study (KCS) provides a unique field infrastructure for hillslope to landscape-scale research on short and long-term ecosystem dynamics in boreal landscapes. The site is designed for process-based research assessing the role of external drivers including forest management, climate change, and long-range pollutant transport on forests, mires, soils, streams, lakes and groundwater. The over-arching objectives of KCS are to (1) provide a state-of-the-art infrastructure for experimental and hypothesis driven research, (2) maintain a collection of high quality, long-term climatic, biogeochemical, hydrological and environmental data, and (3) support the development of models and guidelines for research, policy and management.

Description: 3-D Hydraulic Tomography (3-D HT) is a method for aquifer characterization whereby the 3-D spatial distribution of aquifer flow parameters (primarily hydraulic conductivity, K) is estimated by joint inversion of head change data from multiple partially-penetrating pumping tests. While performance of 3-D HT has been studied extensively in numerical experiments, few field studies have demonstrated the real-world performance of 3-D HT. Here we report on a 3-D transient hydraulic tomography (3-D THT) field experiment at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site which is different from prior approaches in that it represents a “baseline” analysis of 3-D THT performance using only a single arrangement of a central pumping well and 5 observation wells with nearly complete pumping and observation coverage at 1m intervals. We jointly analyze all pumping tests using a geostatistical approach based on the quasi-linear estimator of kitanidis [1995]. We reanalyze the system after progressively removing pumping and/or observation intervals; significant progressive loss of information about heterogeneity is quantified as reduced variance of the K field overall, reduced correlation with slug test K estimates at wells, and reduced ability to accurately predict independent pumping tests. We verify that imaging accuracy is strongly improved by pumping and observational densities comparable to the aquifer heterogeneity geostatistical correlation lengths. Discrepancies between K profiles at wells, as obtained from HT and slug tests, are greatest at the tops and bottoms of wells where HT observation coverage was lacking.

Description: Probabilistic estimates of future water levels and river discharge are usually simulated with hydrologic models using ensemble weather forecasts as main inputs. As hydrologic models are imperfect and the meteorological ensembles tend to be biased and underdispersed, the ensemble forecasts for river runoff typically are biased and underdispersed, too. Thus, in order to achieve both reliable and sharp predictions statistical post-processing is required. In this work Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is applied to statistically post-process ensemble runoff raw forecasts for a catchment in Switzerland, at lead-times ranging from 1 to 240 hours. The raw forecasts have been obtained using deterministic and ensemble forcing meteorological models with different forecast lead-time ranges. First, BMA is applied based on mixtures of univariate normal distributions, subject to the assumption of independence between distinct lead-times. Then, the independence assumption is relaxed in order to estimate multivariate runoff forecasts over the entire range of lead-times simultaneously, based on a BMA version that uses multivariate normal distributions. Since river runoff is a highly skewed variable, Box-Cox transformations are applied in order to achieve approximate normality. Both univariate and multivariate BMA approaches are able to generate well calibrated probabilistic forecasts that are considerably sharper than climatological forecasts. Additionally, multivariate BMA provides a promising approach for incorporating temporal dependencies into the post-processed forecasts. Its major advantage against univariate BMA is an increase in reliability when the forecast system is changing due to model availability.

Description: We derive a series solution for the nonlinear Boussinesq equation in terms of the similarity variable of the Boltzmann transformation in a semi-infinite domain. The first few coefficients of the series have been known for a long time, having been obtained by a truncated inversion of the series solution of the Blasius equation, but no direct recurrence relation was known for the complete series representing the solution of the Boussinesq equation. The series turns out to have a finite radius of convergence, which we estimate with a numerical complex-plane integration method that identifies the singularities of the solution when the equation is extended to the complex plane. The homogeneous condition at the origin produces a singularity which complicates numerical solutions with Runge-Kutta methods. We present two variable transformations that circumvent the problem and that are best suited to the complex-variable and the real-variable versions of the equation, respectively. Using those tools, an approximate solution accurate to 1.75 × 10 -10 and valid for the entire positive real axis is then developed by matching a Padé approximant of the exact series and an asymptotic solution (to overcome the restriction imposed by the finite radius of convergence of the series), along the same lines of the expression proposed by Hogarth and Parlange [1999]. The accuracies of all of the existing and the newly proposed solutions are obtained.

Description: Field sampling in unwadeable and flashy flood events encounters the problem that lateral variability of flow hydraulics and sediment transport cannot be captured adequately, and there is also an accuracy problem because parameters change while being measured. Moreover, event based gravel-sand mixed transport data in rapidly changing conditions are largely missing, in particular for gravel-bed rivers in small catchments. In this study, field measurements of bed load, suspended load, flow velocities, water depths and cross section geometry were collected during flood events at a monitoring station near the mouth of the Versilia river, Italy. Since the observed hydrographs are characterized by short durations, to the order of a few hours, an analysis of the lateral and temporal flow variability was carried out to enable the design of a sampling strategy and to minimize the errors created by the time variations of discharge associated with unsteady flow conditions. The measurements were interpreted using a 1D hydro-morphodynamic numerical model simulating the dynamics of flow and sediment discharges during a flood event for a given return period. The flow and sediment rating curves were then developed through an integrated approach combining different methodologies: field measurements, laboratory analyses and mathematical modeling. The developed approach allows one to capture the main physical mechanisms associated to the transport of sand–gravel mixtures, such as selective transport, and the hysteretic behaviour of sediment transport produced by rapid and intense flood events.

Description: ABSTRACT A study was performed to characterize over land precipitation associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) for basins around the world based upon the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS). From 1998 to 2009, data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) product 3B42, showed that TCs accounted for 5.5%, 7.5%, 6%, 9.5%, and 8.9% of the annual precipitation for impacted over land areas of the Americas, East Asia, South and West Asia, Oceania, and East Africa respectively, and that TC contribution decreased significantly within the first 150-km from the coast. Locally, TCs contributed on average to more than 25% and up to 61% of the annual precipitation budget over very different climatic areas with arid or tropical characteristics. East Asia represented the higher and most constant TC rain (118±19% mm y -1 ) normalized over the area impacted, while East Africa presented the highest variability (108±60% mm y -1 ), and the Americas displayed the lowest average TC rain (65±24% mm y -1 ) despite a higher TC activity. Furthermore, the maximum monthly TC contribution (8-11%) was found later in the TC season and depended on the peak of TC activity, TC rainfall, and the domain transition between dry and wet regimes if any. Finally, because of their importance in terms of rainfall amount, the contribution of TCs was provided for a selection of 50 urban areas experiencing cyclonic activity. Results showed that for particularly intense years, urban areas prone to cyclonic activity received more than half of their annual rainfall from TCs.

Description: A multivariate, multi-site daily weather generator is presented for use in decision-centric vulnerability assessments under climate change. The tool is envisioned useful for a wide range of socioeconomic and biophysical systems sensitive to different aspects of climate variability and change. The proposed stochastic model has several components, including 1) a wavelet decomposition coupled to an autoregressive model to account for structured, low-frequency climate oscillations, 2) a Markov Chain and k-nearest-neighbor (KNN) resampling scheme to simulate spatially-distributed, multivariate weather variables over a region, and 3) a quantile mapping procedure to enforce long-term distributional shifts in weather variables that result from prescribed climate changes. The Markov Chain is used to better represent wet and dry spell statistics while the KNN bootstrap resampler preserves the covariance structure between the weather variables and across space. The wavelet-based autoregressive model is applied to annual climate over the region and used to modulate the Markov Chain and KNN resampling, embedding appropriate low-frequency structure within the daily weather generation process. Parameters can be altered in any of the components of the proposed model to enable the generation of realistic time series of climate variables that exhibit changes to both lower-order and higher-order statistics at long-term (inter-annual), mid-term (seasonal), and short-term (daily) timescales. The tool can be coupled with impact models in a bottom-up risk assessment to efficiently and exhaustively explore the potential climate changes under which a system is most vulnerable. An application of the weather generator is presented for the Connecticut River basin to demonstrate the tool's ability to generate a wide range of possible climate sequences over an extensive spatial domain.

Description: The objective of the least cost design problem of a water distribution system is to find its minimum cost with discrete diameters as decision variables and hydraulic controls as constraints. The goal of a robust least cost design is to find solutions which guarantee its feasibility independent of the data (i.e., under model uncertainty). A robust counterpart approach for linear uncertain problems is adopted in this study, which represents the uncertain stochastic problem as its deterministic equivalent. Robustness is controlled by a single parameter providing a trade-off between the probability of constraint violation and the objective cost. Two principal models are developed-uncorrelated uncertainty model with implicit design reliability, and correlated uncertainty model with explicit design reliability. The models are tested on three example applications and compared for uncertainty in consumers’ demands. The main contribution of this study is the inclusion of the ability to explicitly account for different correlations between water distribution systems demand nodes. In particular it is shown that including correlation information in the design phase has a substantial advantage in seeking more efficient robust solutions.

Description: Moving from univariate to multivariate frequency analysis, this study extends the Klemeš' critique of the widespread belief that the increasingly refined mathematical structures of probability functions increase the accuracy and credibility of the extrapolated upper tails of the fitted distribution models. In particular, we discuss key aspects of multivariate frequency analysis applied to hydrological data such as the selection of multivariate design events (i.e., appropriate subsets or scenarios of multiplets that exhibit the same joint probability to be used in design applications) and the assessment of the corresponding uncertainty. Since these problems are often overlooked or treated separately, and sometimes confused, we attempt to clarify properties, advantages, shortcomings and reliability of results of frequency analysis. We suggest a selection method of multivariate design events with prescribed joint probability based on simple Monte Carlo simulations that accounts for the uncertainty affecting the inference results and the multivariate extreme quantiles. It is also shown that the exploration of the p -level probability regions of a joint distribution returns a set of events that is a subset of the p -level scenarios resulting from an appropriate assessment of the sampling uncertainty, thus tending to overlook more extreme and potentially dangerous events with the same (uncertain) joint probability. Moreover, a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty of multivariate quantiles is provided by introducing the concept of joint confidence intervals. From an operational point of view, the simulated event sets describing the distribution of the multivariate p -level quantiles can be used to perform multivariate risk analysis under sampling uncertainty. As an example of the practical implications of this study, we analyse two case studies already presented in the literature.

Description: Sparse geologic dictionaries provide a novel approach for subsurface flow model representation and calibration. Learning sparse dictionaries from prior training datasets is an effective approach to describe complex geologic connectivity patterns in subsurface imaging applications. However, the computational cost of sparse learning algorithms becomes prohibitive for large models. Performing the sparse dictionary learning process on smaller image patches (segments) provides a simple approach to address this problem in image processing applications. However, in underdetermined subsurface flow model calibration inverse problems, reconstruction of a segmented image can introduce significant structural distortion and discontinuity at the boundaries of the segments. This paper proposes an alternative sparse learning approach where the sparse dictionaries are learned from low-rank representations of the large-scale training dataset in spectral domains (e.g., frequency domain). The objective is to develop a computationally efficient dictionary learning approach that emphasizes large-scale spatial connectivity patterns. This is achieved by removing the strong spatial correlations in the training data, thereby eliminating a large number of insignificant components from the sparse learning computation. In addition to improving the computational complexity, sparse learning from low-rank training datasets suppresses the small-scale details from entering the reconstruction of large-scale connectivity patterns, and providing a regularization effect in solving the resulting ill-posed inverse problems. We apply the proposed approach to travel-time tomography inversion and nonlinear subsurface flow model calibration inverse problems to demonstrate its effectiveness and practicality.

Description: Resistive forces along convergent plate boundaries have a major impact on surface deformation, most visibly at collisional plate boundaries. Although quantification of these forces is key to understanding the evolution and present state of mountain belts, they remain highly uncertain due to the complexity of plate boundary structures and rheologies. In previous studies of the Eurasian Plate, we have analysed the balance of plate boundary forces, tractions resulting from lithosphere–mantle coupling, and intraplate variations in topography and density structure. This yielded a range of acceptable force distributions. In this study, we investigate to which extent the observed present-day stress field provides further constraints on the distribution of forces. We address the dynamics of the Eurasian Plate as a whole. This enables us to base our analysis on mechanical equilibrium of a tectonic plate and to evaluate all forces as part of an internally consistent set of forces driving and deforming Eurasia. We incorporate tractions from convective mantle flow modelling in a lithospheric model in which edge and lithospheric body forces are modelled explicitly and compute resulting stresses in a homogeneous elastic thin shell. Intraplate stress observations used are from the World Stress Map project. Eurasia's stress field turns out to be particularly sensitive to the distribution of collision forces on the plate's southern margin and, to a much lesser extent, to lithospheric density structure and tractions from mantle flow. Stress observations require collision forces on the India–Eurasia boundary of 7.0–10.5 TN m –1 and on the Arabia–Eurasia boundary of 1.3–2.7 TN m –1 . Implication of mechanical equilibrium of the plate is that forces on the contacts with the African and Australian plates amount to 1.0–2.5 and 0–1.3 TN m –1 , respectively. We use our results to assess the validity of the classical view that the mean elevation of an orogenic plateau can be taken as a measure of the magnitude of the compressive (in this case: collision-related) forces involved. For both the Tibetan and the Iranian plateaus, two plateaus with significantly different average elevations, we find that the horizontal force derived from the excess gravitational potential energy (collapse force) is in balance with the collision force.

Description: Magma movement and fault slip alter the magnitude and orientation of the stress in the surrounding crust. Observations of a sequence of events clustered in space and time provide information about the triggering mechanism and stress interactions between magma intrusion, earthquakes and eruptions. We investigate the syn- and post-intrusion stress changes associated with the 2007 Gelei dyke intrusion episode and subsequent eruption of nearby Oldonyo Lengai. Previous studies produced a kinematic model of the 2007 June–August sequence involving ~1 m slip on a normal fault followed by the intrusion of the 7–10-km long Gelei dyke, collapse of a shallow graben and the deflation of the Gelei magma chamber. Immediately following this, the volcano Oldoinyo Lengai (〈10 km away) experienced a new phase of explosive activity lasting for several months. Here, we present new geodetic observations covering Gelei and Oldoinyo Lengai in 2008 September–2010. We show continued slip on graben-bounding faults above the Gelei dyke. The eruption of Oldoinyo Lengai was accompanied by the intrusion of a 4 km-long E–W-trending dyke followed by deflation of a shallow source directly below the summit of the volcano. Next, we use stress calculations to investigate a number of hypotheses linking these events. (1) Before the onset of surface deformation, a dyke sufficiently deep and narrow to be geodetically undetectable could still have produced sufficient stress changes to trigger slip on the normal fault (i.e. the sequence could have been magmatically driven). (2) Stresses at the dyke tip would have been sufficient to overcome the effect of continued slip on the normal fault, allowing the dyke to propagate upwards into a region of clamping. (3) The Gelei sequence would have produced a significant stress change on the chamber beneath Oldoinyo Lengai. These static stress calculations allow us to discuss the roles played by dynamic stress, deeper magmatic changes and background stresses throughout the sequence with implications for the stress triggering of both seismic and volcanic hazards.

Description: The relationships between magnetic susceptibility and pedogenic development are different in various regions of the world. For example, loess magnetic susceptibility shows a positive correlation with pedogenic development in Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP), while it displays a negative correlation with pedogenesis in Alaska and Siberia. To better understand the relationship between magnetic properties and pedogenic development, detailed sampling of Dashing Rocks loess section at Timaru, South Island, New Zealand, was carried out. Multiproxy magnetic parameters such as magnetic susceptibility, anhysteretic remanent magnetization, magnetic hysteresis loops, M s – T curves and – T curves were measured. The results show that the types of magnetic minerals are similar to CLP: magnetite, maghemite, goethite and hematite. However, great differences are found in their concentration: most minerals in the Dashing Rocks section are hard magnetic, such as goethite, the content of paramagnetic minerals is rather high, while the soft-magnetic mineral content is very low. Hard-magnetic and paramagnetic minerals increase with depth, but soft-magnetic minerals decrease with depth, and are absent in the lower part of the profile. Gammate soil structures and Fe/Mn nodules (or pans) are commonly observed in the section, indicating that high susceptibility magnetite and maghemite have been converted to goethite and migrated downward to enrich certain horizons during chemical weathering. This process leads to lower magnetic susceptibility values, possibly related to the source and the transformation of soft-magnetic minerals in a high soil moisture environment. The relationship between magnetic susceptibility and pedogenic development in Dashing Rocks loess section is therefore different from the simple positive and negative relationships in CLP and Siberia, respectively. The more complex relationships between magnetic properties and pedogenic development in New Zealand loess may be related to differing degrees of magnetic mineral transformation at different depths and at different times.

Description: Vehicle traffic is at present one of the major sources of environmental pollution in urban areas. Magnetic parameters are successfully applied in environmental studies to obtain detailed information about concentrations and quality of iron-bearing minerals. A general aim of this research was to investigate the magnetic, microstructural and mineralogical properties of dust extracted from the roadside snowpack accumulated on the side of an urban highway, northern Helsinki. Vertical snow profiles were taken at different distances (5, 10 and 15 m) from the road edge, during winter season 2010–2011. The temporal distribution of mass magnetic susceptibility () of the road dust shows that the concentration of magnetic particles increases in the snowpack during winter. Roadside snowpack preserves a large fraction of the magnetic particulate until the late stages of melting and this could be considered as one of the main factors responsible for the resuspension phenomenon observed in Nordic countries. The vertical distribution of and SIRM (saturation isothermal remanent magnetization)/ ratio may indicate the migration of magnetic particles down in the snowpack during melting conditions. Ultrafine to coarse-grained (superparamagnetic to multidomain) magnetite was identified as the primary magnetic mineral in all the studied road dust samples. The examined road dust contains significant amount of dia/paramagnetic minerals (e.g. quartz, albite, biotite) and the content of magnetite is relatively low (below 1 weight percent, wt%). The roadside snowpack is enriched in anthropogenic particles such as angular and spherical iron-oxides, tungsten-rich particles and sodium chloride. This study demonstrates the suitability of snow as an efficient collecting medium of magnetic particulates generated by anthropogenic activities.

Description: We explore the use of on-land GPS observations to detect deformation due to tsunami propagation near source regions of large interplate earthquakes. Here, we focus on the M w 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, which occurred around 14:46 (JST) on 2011 March 11. We consider GPS data in the time span 14:54–15:22 (JST) along the Sanriku coast, where the tsunami had the largest amplitude. The displacement data shows the signatures of large aftershocks as well as post-seismic fault slip (afterslip). These effects are particularly evident in the east component. From the horizontal displacement vectors, we construct a simple fault model for the early phase of the afterslip. Mean slip velocity of the early afterslip reaches 0.1 mm s –1 . By compiling the early afterslip velocity of recent interplate earthquakes around that region, we find its increasing trend with the main shock magnitude. This scaling relation may reflect higher stressing rates at edges of larger main shock faults. Separately, we forward calculate land deformation due to tsunami height changes based on a tsunami simulation. Tsunami-induced deformation is only evident in the vertical direction at coastal GPS stations. The predicted subsidence amounts at some coastal stations can account for a large portion of the residuals between the observation and the modelled deformation due to the fault slip.

Description: Observations of the Earth's nutations provide constraints on the mechanical coupling at the core–mantle and inner core boundaries. An important physical mechanism that could be responsible for the observed dissipation is the electromagnetic (EM) coupling, to which this paper is devoted. Previous studies assumed that the main feature of the magnetic field that affects the EM coupling is its overall strength, its morphology being considered unimportant. In particular, these studies rely on the hypothesis that the contribution to the torque from all the non-dipolar components of the field can be approximated by the contribution that a uniform radial field with the same strength would have. In this study, we compute the EM torque for more realistic configurations of the magnetic field at the core boundaries and thereby assess the role of its spatial distribution on the strength of the EM torque. For field strengths typical of the core–mantle boundary (CMB), we show that the spatial distribution affects weakly the strength of the torque, with the approximation by a uniform field leading to an overestimation of the torque magnitude by ~15–20 per cent. However, for field strengths typical of the inner core boundary (ICB), the morphology of the field has a more significant influence on the EM torque and the approximation by a uniform field overestimates the torque by ~30–40 per cent. Assuming that EM coupling is responsible for the observed dissipation, we infer constraints on the strength of the radial magnetic field at both the CMB and ICB. We show how the unknown morphology of the magnetic field induces uncertainties on the estimated field strength at the ICB, which can take values anywhere in the range of ~9–16 mT. These very large values suggest that EM coupling at the ICB cannot be the only mechanism responsible for the observed dissipation.

Description: Variations in the degree-2 Stokes coefficients C 20 , C 21 and S 21 can be used to understand long- and short-term climate forcing. Here we derive changes in these coefficients for the period 2003 January–2012 April using Earth rotation data. Earth rotation data contain contributions from motion terms (the effects of winds and currents) and contributions from the effects of mass redistribution. We remove the effects of tides, atmospheric winds and oceanic currents from our data. We compare two different models of atmospheric and oceanic angular momentum for removing the effects of winds and currents: (1) using products from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and (2) using data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). We assess the quality of these motion models by comparing the two resulting sets of degree-2 Stokes coefficients to independent degree-2 estimates from satellite laser ranging (SLR), GRACE and a geophysical loading model. We find a good agreement between the coefficients from Earth rotation and the coefficients from other sources. In general, the agreement is better for the coefficients we obtain by removing winds and currents effects using the ECMWF model. In this case, we find higher correlations with the independent models and smaller scatters in differences. This fact holds in particular for C 20 and C 21 , whereas we cannot observe a significant difference for S 21 . At the annual and semiannual periods, our Earth rotation derived coefficients agree well with the estimates from the other sources, particularly for C 21 and S 21 . The slight discrepancies we obtain for C 20 can probably be explained by errors in the atmospheric models and are most likely the result of an over-/underestimation of the annual and semiannual contributions of atmospheric winds to the length-of-day excitation.

Description: Subduction zones are complex 3-D features in which one tectonic plate sinks underneath another into the deep mantle. During subduction the overriding plate (OP) remains in physical contact with the subducting plate and stresses generated at the subduction zone interface and by mantle flow force the OP to deform. We present results of 3-D dynamic laboratory models of subduction that include an OP. We introduce new interplate materials comprising homogeneous mixtures of petrolatum and paraffin oil to achieve progressive subduction. The rheology of these mixtures is characterized by measurements using a strain rate controlled rheometer. The results show that the strength of the mixture increases with petrolatum content, which can be used as a proxy for the degree of mechanical coupling along the subduction interface. Results of subduction experiments are presented with different degrees of mechanical coupling and the influence this has on the dynamics and kinematics of subduction. The modelling results show that variations in the degree of mechanical coupling between the plates have a major impact on subduction velocities, slab geometry and the rate of OP deformation. In all experiments the OP is displaced following trench migration and experiences overall extension localized in the plate interior. This suggests that OP deformation is driven primarily by the toroidal component of subduction-related mantle return flow. The subduction rate is always very slow in experiments with medium mechanical coupling, and subduction stops prematurely in experiments with very high coupling. This implies that the shear forces along the plate interface in natural subduction zone systems must be relatively low and do not vary significantly. Otherwise a higher variability in natural subduction velocities should be observed for mature, non-perturbed subduction zones. The required low shear force is likely controlled by the rheology of highly hydrated sedimentary and basaltic rocks.

Description: The Frank-Kamenetskii (FK) approximation is a common method to represent the Arrhenius-type viscosity of planetary mantles because it reduces the viscosity contrast in the lithosphere to save computational resources and prevent numerical errors. In some cases, this approximation does not lead to satisfying results; for example, it can lead to a mobile-lid regime, whereas use of the Arrhenius law shows a thin stagnant lid. We therefore derive a new, more accurate approximation called ‘damped FK approximation’ for a temperature- and pressure-dependent viscosity. This damped FK approximation is a mixture between the standard first-order FK approximation and an approximation of second-order accuracy controlled by a damping parameter. Furthermore, the FK parameters are determined self-consistently at every time step. This study shows that the damped FK approximation represents the mantle flow of an Arrhenius-type viscosity for a much larger parameter space than for the standard first-order approximation. It can also be used to simulate terrestrial planets, such as super-Earths, with high pressure dependence of the viscosity, if the surface temperature does not exceed a specific threshold value and if a high enough damping parameter is used. We also test the FK approximation for plate tectonics simulations. The second-order FK approximation best represents the Arrhenius flow in the investigated parameter range. In particular, the dependence of the critical yield stress, at which the transition from the plate tectonics regime to the stagnant-lid regime can be observed, on the Rayleigh number can differ from the Arrhenius case (and the second-order FK approximation) when using a first-order FK approximation or rheology parameters in the Arrhenius law that differ from laboratory values to yield small viscosity contrasts. This finding may have strong implications for the prediction of plate tectonics on terrestrial planets.

Description: We propose new scaling laws for the properties of planetary dynamos. In particular, the Rossby number, the magnetic Reynolds number, the ratio of magnetic to kinetic energy, the Ohmic dissipation timescale and the characteristic aspect ratio of the columnar convection cells are all predicted to be power-law functions of two observable quantities: the magnetic dipole moment and the planetary rotation rate. The resulting scaling laws constitute a somewhat modified version of the scalings proposed by Christensen and Aubert. The main difference is that, in view of the small value of the Rossby number in planetary cores, we insist that the non-linear inertial term, ${\boldsymbol u} \cdot \nabla {\boldsymbol u}$ , is negligible. This changes the exponents in the power-laws which relate the various properties of the fluid dynamo to the planetary dipole moment and rotation rate. Our scaling laws are consistent with the available numerical evidence.

Description: Earlier studies at the large Vredefort impact structure since 1960 have shown that values of natural remanent magnetizations (NRMs) and, hence, Koenigsberger's Q values (ratio of remanent over induced magnetization), for different rock lithologies are elevated compared to the values for similar rock types around the world. Three origins for the high Q values have been suggested, namely shock by meteorite impact, enhanced plasma field and lightning strikes. We have studied whether laboratory lightning experiments can produce enhanced NRMs in the Vredefort target rocks. For comparison, we also included rocks from the Johannesburg dome, which is not a meteorite impact site. The results revealed increased NRMs, susceptibility and Q values of the rocks from both Vredefort and Johannesburg domes. Rock magnetic measurements and scanning electron microscope analyses of lightning pulsed and unpulsed samples showed that the lightning included changes in magnetic properties of the rocks. We suggest that in some samples lightning have changed magnetic mineralogy by oxidizing magnetite to maghemite. Indication of this oxidation came from the low-temperature variation of the remanent magnetization where we observed several hallmarks of maghemitization in samples treated by lightning strikes. Further indications of mineralogical changes include increased Curie points above the magnetite's Curie point (580 °C) and appearance of pronounced lower temperature (200–400 °C) phases in susceptibility versus temperature curves. These changes are interpreted to indicate partially oxidized magnetite (maghemitization) coupled with grain fragmentations and by this way grain size reduction. High-temperature hysteresis and REM (= NRM/saturation isothermal remanent magnetization) studies support these conclusions. Our results were analogous with the ones for lodestones and protolodestones where partially oxidized magnetite is thought to make magnetization more intense.

Description: Regeneration of the Earth's magnetic field by convection in the liquid core produces a broad spectrum of time variation. Relative palaeointensity measurements in marine sediments provide a detailed record over the past 2 Myr, but an explicit reconstruction of the underlying dynamics is not feasible. A more practical alternative is to construct a stochastic model from estimates of the virtual axial dipole moment. The deterministic part of the model (drift term) describes time-averaged behaviour, whereas the random part (diffusion term) characterizes complex interactions over convective timescales. We recover estimates of the drift and diffusion terms from the SINT2000 model of Valet et al. and the PADM2M model of Ziegler et al. The results are used in numerical solutions of the Fokker–Planck equation to predict statistical properties of the palaeomagnetic field, including the average rates of magnetic reversals and excursions. A physical interpretation of the stochastic model suggests that the timescale for adjustments in the axial dipole moment is set by the dipole decay time d . We obtain d = 29 kyr from the stochastic models, which falls within the expected range for the Earth's core. We also predict the amplitude of convective fluctuations in the core, and establish a physical connection to the rates of magnetic reversals and excursions. Chrons lasting longer than 10 Myr are unlikely under present-day conditions. However, long chrons become more likely if the diffusion term is reduced by a factor of 2. Such a change is accomplished by reducing the velocity fluctuations in the core by a factor of 2, which could be attributed to a shift in the spatial pattern of heat flux from the core or a reduction in the total core heat flow.

Description: Since King presented the ‘plates and spheres’ model in an attempt to investigate the origin of the inclination error in sediments, no one to date has conducted specific experiments designed to separate the individual contribution of platy and spherical particles to depositional remanent magnetizations (DRMs). It is commonly accepted that it is the flattening of plates, rather than the rolling of spheres that is the main source of inclination error in sediments. Recently, however, Bilardello et al. have shown that spheres alone may lead to significant amounts of shallowing. A comparison of experiments run in parallel using synthetic platy and spherical particles is presented. Experiments of the duration of 24 hr were run in 100 μT field intensity ( μ 0 H ) and varying field inclinations ( I F ) from vertical to horizontal. A systematic dependence of the magnetization on field inclination is apparent. Results indicate that magnetic moment measurements are more repeatable for spherical particles than for plates, yielding smaller uncertainties. Inclination measurements, however, are more repeatable for platy particles, with a more linear relationship of inclination error to applied field inclination. Moreover, plates yield smaller inclination error than spheres. A clear field inclination dependency of the inclination error also exists, with the error decreasing through field inclinations of 30°, 60° and 90°. A continuous acquisition experiment involving plates was also run up to 10 d of deposition in μ 0 H = 100 μT and I F = 60°. The acquisition curves for moment, inclination and thickness of depositing sediment are compared to the mean curves measured for spheres by Bilardello et al. under the same field conditions. No unequivocal evidence of compaction of the platy particles is observed, while the inclination error is acquired virtually instantaneously for all particles. These preliminary results contradict the widespread understanding that inclination shallowing is more prominent for platy particles (e.g. hematite) than it is for more spherical particles (e.g. magnetite). It is true that larger amounts of shallowing have been commonly observed in natural hematite-bearing rocks, but the overall ranges of shallowing are also larger. The particles used in these experiments may not be a reliable proxy for natural crystals and one must exercise caution when extrapolating to the natural scenarios; however, the results provide insight into the behaviour of differently shaped particles.

Description: Monoclinic 4C pyrrhotite (Fe 7 S 8 ) is ferrimagnetic due to an ordered defect structure with alternating vacancy and vacancy-free sublattices. Its low-temperature magnetic transition near 35 K is characterized by the distinct increase in coercivity and remanent magnetization. The increase of these parameters has been attributed to changes in the domain wall structure. We present static and dynamic magnetization data of a powder sample to study the domain-wall dynamics across the low-temperature transition. The amplitude-dependent ac susceptibility and the ferromagnetic resonance spectroscopy indicate that the hardening of the domain-wall pinning at the transition occurs simultaneously with the decrease in initial saturation remanent magnetization. These two effects are explained by the enhanced inhomogeneity of the bulk material caused by the persistency of the ordered vacancies and by newly formed defects due to localized distortion of Fe(II) sites in the vacancy-free sublattice. The generated localized defects are the link between the domain wall dynamics and the low-temperature transition in 4C pyrrhotite.

Description: Thermal anomalies associated with ore-mineralization (Pb–Cu–Zn and Fe) were studied using thermal infrared data collected over Mamandur polymetal prospect, India, with the aid of satellite, field, and laboratory measurements. Day and night ASTER data were analysed in conjunction with field measurements to estimate thermal inertia of the ore body, altered zones and country rocks. Representative samples collected from field were also analysed for thermal conductivity, diffusivity, and inertia using a self-fabricated setup. Spatial changes in thermal inertia were mapped by look up table (LUT) and advanced thermal inertia mapping (ATIM) approaches. Mineralized zones show very high thermal contrast ( T ) both in field (15–25°C) and satellite data (14.9–16.9 o C). They also exhibit the lowest thermal inertia in field-(2118–5474 J m –2 K –1 s –1/2 ) and satellite-based (3783–4037 J m –2 K –1 s –1/2 ) measurements. In non-mineralized areas, acidic rocks (granite, migmatite and granite gneiss) have lower inertia than basic rocks (basic granulite, dolerite and charnockite). Results estimated by LUT and ATIM approaches correlate very well at satellite ( R 2  = 0.97) and field ( R 2  = 0.89) scales. Similarly, field- and satellite-based results also have good correlation ( R 2  = 0.69–0.72). This study illustrates the potential of thermal inertia mapping in delineating ore bodies and deciphering the lithological changes even under veneer of soil.

Description: We present a novel global 3-D electromagnetic (EM) inverse solution that allows to work in a unified and consistent manner with frequency-domain data that originate from ionospheric and magnetospheric sources irrespective of their spatial complexity. The main idea behind the approach is simultaneous determination of the source and conductivity distribution in the Earth. Such a determination is implemented in our solution as a looped sequential procedure that involves two steps: (1) determination of the source using a fixed 3-D conductivity model and (2) recovery of a 3-D conductivity model using a fixed source. We focus in this paper on analysis of Sq data and numerically verify each step separately and combined using data synthesized from 3-D models of the Earth induced by a realistic Sq source. To determine the source we implement an approach that makes use of a known conductivity structure of the Earth with non-uniform oceans. Based on model studies we show that this approach outperforms the conventional potential method. As for recovery of 3-D conductivity in the mantle, our inverse scheme relies on a regularized least-square formulation, exploits a limited-memory quasi-Newton optimization method and makes use of the adjoint source approach to calculate efficiently the misfit gradient. We perform resolution studies with checkerboard conductivity structures at depths between 10 and 1600 km for different inverse setups and conclude from these studies that: (1) inverting Z component gives much better results than inverting all ( X , Y and Z ) components; (2) data from the Sq source allows for resolving 3-D structures in depth range between 100 and 520 km; (3) the best resolution is achieved in the depth range of 100–250 km.

Description: The discontinuity surface between Earth crust and mantle, the so-called Moho, is commonly estimated by means of seismic or gravimetric methods. Usually these methods do not yield the same result since they are based on different geological and geophysical hypotheses, as well as different data types, also in terms of quality and spatial distribution. In particular, global crust models based only on seismic data (e.g. the CRUST2.0 model) can be locally very accurate since seismic profiles give an almost direct observation of the actual crust structure, but can be quite uninformative in large regions where no data are available or they are too inhomogeneous. On the contrary, when using satellite gravity observations like those provided by the ESA mission GOCE, information on the Moho can be inferred from a uniform and global data set. However, Moho models estimated by gravity data are in general characterized by simplified hypotheses to guarantee the uniqueness of the solution of the inverse gravitational problem. The aim of this work is to attenuate these drawbacks by combining the seismic global model CRUST2.0 with gravity observations from the GOCE satellite mission. More specifically, the used GOCE data are grid values at mean satellite altitude estimated by the so-called space-wise approach. After reducing the data to a two-layer model by removing the effect of topography, bathymetry and sediments, a combined inversion driven by a priori information on the CRUST2.0 accuracy and by the error covariance structure of the GOCE grids is performed. In addition, the observation errors as well as the error due to the data reduction are tentatively taken into account to estimate the accuracy of the final Moho model. The result is an update of the CRUST2.0 Moho model with a 0.5°  x 0.5° resolution, which at the same time contains seismic and geological information and it is consistent, at 20 mE level, to the actually observed gravity field. A first comparison with the CRUST2.0 Moho shows that in the continental crust the mean difference between the two models is of the order of 1.5 km with standard deviations depending on the considered region. As expected, the main variations (standard deviation of the order of 7 km) are located in South America, Africa and Antarctica where very few data in the CRUST2.0 were originally used. In the rest of the world, differences have a standard deviation of about 4 km. As for the oceanic crust, it can be noted that the corrections to the CRUST2.0 model are of the order of 3 km (mean value) with a standard deviation of 6 km. Finally, the solution computed in this paper has been compared with a set of Moho models at different scales from global to local ones showing that it is reasonably consistent (differences of about 5 km standard deviation) also with seismic observations.

Description: Gravity gradiometry, whether from ground or airborne surveys, for geodesy and geophysics typically requires that the gravitational effect of the visible terrain is removed from the measured values. A systematic, algorithmic approach is developed to determine the extent of terrain data needed to maintain a truncation error below a desired level. The algorithm is based on a geostatistical analysis of the topography and applies to gradient differences over a particular size of survey area. It was found that a suitable modification of the kernel of the integral for the terrain effect can reduce the needed extent significantly in some cases. The determination of the needed extent for a given truncation error (standard deviation) and survey area size requires knowing a reasonable amplitude of the power spectral density (PSD) of the local topography, but otherwise is based on the fractal nature of topography, which also assumes that it is stationary. The algorithm is illustrated for ground and airborne cases in both moderate and rough terrain. For example, for an airborne gradiometer survey at 5 km altitude over 50 km of moderate terrain, the algorithm predicts requiring a topographic data extent of about 48 km for 1 Eötvös error (standard deviation) in the terrain effect. This extent can be reduced to 35 km with the kernel modification. In addition, the developed PSD models may be extended to determine the data resolution required for the terrain effect using a simple analytic formula.

Description: The commonest technique for determination of the continental-oceanic crustal boundary or transition (COB) zone is based on locating and visually correlating bathymetric and potential field anomalies and constructing crustal models constrained by seismic data. In this paper, we present a simple method for spatial correlation of bathymetric and potential field geophysical anomalies. Angular differences between gradient directions are used to determine different types of correlation between gravity and bathymetric or magnetic data. It is found that the relationship between bathymetry and gravity anomalies can be correctly identified using this method. It is demonstrated, by comparison with previously published models for the southwest African margin, that this method enables the demarcation of the zone of transition from oceanic to continental crust assuming that this it is associated with geophysical anomalies, which can be correlated using gradient directions rather than magnitudes. We also applied this method, supported by 2-D gravity modelling, to the more complex Liberia and Cote d'Ivoire-Ghana sectors of the West African transform margin and obtained results that are in remarkable agreement with past predictions of the COB in that region. We suggest the use of this method for a first-pass interpretation as a prelude to rigorous modelling of the COB in frontier areas.

Description: Gravity inversion allows us to constrain the interior mass distribution of a planetary body using the observed shape, rotation and gravity. Traditionally, techniques developed for gravity inversion can be divided into Monte Carlo methods, matrix inversion methods and spectral methods. Here we employ both matrix inversion and Monte Carlo in order to explore the space of exact solutions, in a method which is particularly suited for arbitrary shape bodies. We expand the mass density function using orthogonal polynomials, and map the contribution of each term to the global gravitational field generated. This map is linear in the density terms, and can be pseudo-inverted in the underdetermined regime using QR decomposition, to obtain a basis of the affine space of exact interior structure solutions. As the interior structure solutions are degenerate, assumptions have to be made in order to control their properties, and these assumptions can be transformed into scalar functions and used to explore the solutions space using Monte Carlo techniques. Sample applications show that the range of solutions tend to converge towards the nominal one as long as the generic assumptions made are correct, even in the presence of moderate noise. We present the underlying mathematical formalism and an analysis of how to impose specific features on the global solution, including uniform solutions, gradients and layered models. Analytical formulas for the computation of the relevant quantities when the shape is represented using several common methods are included in the Appendix.

Description: Tortuosity is a key parameter for investigating the pore structure of sedimentary rock. The conventional model for calculating the tortuosity is derived from Archie's law which is only valid for one conductive phase contained in a porous rock. However, there have been increasingly cases to show the non-Archie phenomenon in instances where the rock matrix has extra conductive phases such as surface conductivity caused by the electrical double layer. Therefore, such model may be inapplicable in these cases and in calculations involving partial melting. We investigated the relation between formation factor and porosity ( F– ) over a wide range of porosities by the lattice-gas automata method (LGA) with the electrical double layer. The digital rock samples were constructed by packing up solid grains with different shapes and size distribution, as previously measured in the laboratory on real rock specimens. Our purpose was to identify the origin of non-Archie behaviour of the F– relation sometimes observed. The simulations show that Archie's law may only be an approximation of the F– relation in a high porosity range. Based on our LGA simulations and additional laboratory experimental data, we developed new equations for non-Archie F– relation and tortuosity potentially useful for improving the evaluation of pore structure.

Description: In this study, we investigate the seismic wave attenuation beneath Sikkim Himalaya using P , S and coda waves from 68 local earthquakes registered by eight broad-band stations of the SIKKIM network. The attenuation quality factor ( Q ) depends on frequency as well as lapse time and depth. The value of Q varies from (i) 141 to 639 for P waves, (ii) 143 to 1108 for S waves and (iii) 274 to 1678 for coda waves, at central frequencies of 1.5 Hz and 9 Hz, respectively. The relations that govern the attenuation versus frequency dependence are Q α  = (96 ± 0.9) f (0.94 ± 0.01) , Q β  = (100 ± 1.4) f (1.16 ± 0.01) and Q c  = (189 ± 1.5) f (1.2 ± 0.01) for P , S and coda waves, respectively. The ratio between Q β and Q α is larger than unity, implying larger attenuation of P compared to S waves. Also, the values of Q c are higher than Q β . Estimation of the relative contribution of intrinsic ( Q i ) and scattering ( Q s ) attenuation reveals that the former mechanism is dominant in Sikkim Himalaya. We note that the estimates of Q c lie in between Q i and Q s and are very close to Q i at lower frequencies. This is in agreement with the theoretical and laboratory experiments. The strong frequency and depth dependence of the attenuation quality factor suggests a highly heterogeneous crust in the Sikkim Himalaya. Also, the high Q values estimated for this region compared to the other segments of Himalaya can be reconciled in terms of moderate seismic activity, unlike rest of the Himalaya, which is seismically more active.

Description: The seismic wavefield mainly contains reflected, refracted and direct waves but energy related to elastic scattering can also be identified at frequencies of 1 Hz and higher. The scattered, high-frequency seismic wavefield contains information on the small-scale structure of the Earth's crust, mantle and core. Due to the high thermal conductivity of mantle materials causing rapid dissipation of thermal anomalies, the Earth's small-scale structure most likely reveals details of the composition of the interior, and, is therefore essential for our understanding of the dynamics and evolution of the Earth. Using specific ray configurations we can identify scattered energy originating in the lower mantle and under certain circumstances locate its point of origin in the Earth allowing further insight into the structure of the lowermost mantle. Here we present evidence, from scattered PKP waves, for a heterogeneous structure at the core–mantle boundary (CMB) beneath southern Africa. The structure rises approximately 80 km above the CMB and is located at the eastern edge of the African LLSVP. Mining-related and tectonic seismic events in South Africa, with m b from 3.2 to 6.0 recorded at epicentral distances of 119.3° to 138.8° from Yellowknife Array (YKA) (Canada), show large amplitude precursors to PKP df arriving 3–15 s prior to the main phase. We use array processing to measure slowness and backazimuth of the scattered energy and determine the scatterer location in the deep Earth. To improve the resolution of the slowness vector at the medium aperture YKA we present a new application of the F -statistic. The high-resolution slowness and backazimuth measurements indicate scattering from a structure up to 80 km tall at the CMB with lateral dimensions of at least 1200 km by 300 km, at the edge of the African Large Low Shear Velocity Province. The forward scattering nature of the PKP probe indicates that this is velocity-type scattering resulting primarily from changes in elastic parameters. The PKP scattering data are in agreement with dynamically supported dense material related to the Large Low Shear Velocity Province.

Description: In this paper, some methods for scoring the performances of an earthquake forecasting probability model are applied retrospectively for different goals. The time-dependent occurrence probabilities of a renewal process are tested against earthquakes of M w ≥ 5.3 recorded in Italy according to decades of the past century. An aim was to check the capability of the model to reproduce the data by which the model was calibrated. The scoring procedures used can be distinguished on the basis of the requirement (or absence) of a reference model and of probability thresholds. Overall, a rank-based score, information gain, gambling scores, indices used in binary predictions and their loss functions are considered. The definition of various probability thresholds as percentages of the hazard functions allows proposals of the values associated with the best forecasting performance as alarm level in procedures for seismic risk mitigation. Some improvements are then made to the input data concerning the completeness of the historical catalogue and the consistency of the composite seismogenic sources with the hypotheses of the probability model. Another purpose of this study was thus to obtain hints on what is the most influential factor and on the suitability of adopting the consequent changes of the data sets. This is achieved by repeating the estimation procedure of the occurrence probabilities and the retrospective validation of the forecasts obtained under the new assumptions. According to the rank-based score, the completeness appears to be the most influential factor, while there are no clear indications of the usefulness of the decomposition of some composite sources, although in some cases, it has led to improvements of the forecast.

Description: We propose a numerical algorithm for solving first arrival transmission traveltime tomography problems where the underlying slowness is piecewise continuous. The idea is based upon our previously efficient approach for smooth slowness inversion (Leung & Qian) using the fast sweeping method and the adjoint state method. In this work, we further incorporate the level set method to implicitly represent the discontinuity in the velocity. One main advantage of such implicit representation is that there is no assumption on the number of disjoint components in the inverted structure. The evolution of the level set function will naturally take care of the change in the topology. Like in the previous work, the gradient of the mismatch functional is derived using the adjoint state method. The forward problem and the adjoint equation are efficiently solved by the fast sweeping method. To further improve the computational efficiency, we also propose a local level set method so that most computer power of updating the level set evolution is spent near the discontinuity in the slowness. Numerical results will be given to demonstrate the robustness of the algorithm.

Description: We present a 1-D velocity model of the Earth's crust in Campania–Lucania region obtained by solving the coupled hypocentre–velocity inverse problem for 1312 local earthquakes recorded at a dense regional network. The model is constructed using the VELEST program, which calculates 1-D ‘minimum’ velocity model from body wave traveltimes, together with station corrections, which account for deviations from the simple 1-D structure. The spatial distribution of station corrections correlates with the P -wave velocity variations of a preliminary 3-D crustal velocity model that has been obtained from the tomographic inversion of the same data set of P traveltimes. We found that station corrections reflect not only inhomogeneous near-surface structures, but also larger-scale geological features associated to the transition between carbonate platform outcrops at Southwest and Miocene sedimentary basins at Northeast. We observe a significant trade-off between epicentral locations and station corrections, related to the existence of a thick low-velocity layer to the NE. This effect is taken into account and minimized by re-computing station corrections, fixing the position of a subset of well-determined hypocentres, located in the 3-D tomographic model.

Description: High-rate GPS and seismic sensors are mutually contributing to seismological applications for capturing earthquake-induced coseismic displacements. In this study, we propose an approach for tightly integrating GPS and strong motion data on raw observation level to increase the quality of the derived displacements. The performance of the proposed approach is demonstrated using 5 Hz high-rate GPS and 200 Hz strong motion data collected during the El Mayor–Cucapah earthquake ( M w 7.2, 2010 April 4) in Baja California, Mexico. The new approach not only takes advantages of both GPS and strong motion sensors, but also improves the reliability of the displacement by enhancing GPS integer-cycle phase ambiguity resolution, which is very critical for deriving displacements with highest quality.

Description: The Pegasus Bay aftershock sequence is the most recent aftershock sequence of the 2010 September 3 UTC moment magnitude ( M w ) 7.1 Darfield earthquake in the Canterbury region of New Zealand. The Pegasus Bay aftershock sequence began on 2011 December 23 UTC with three events of M w 5.4–5.9 located in the offshore region of Pegasus Bay, east of Christchurch city. We present a summary of key aspects of the sequence derived using various geophysical methods. Relocations carried out using double-difference tomography show a well-defined NNE–SSW to NE–SW series of aftershocks with most of the activity occurring at depths 〉5 km and an average depth of ~10 km. Regional moment tensor solutions calculated for the Pegasus Bay sequence indicate that the vast majority (45 of 53 events) are reverse-faulting events with an average P -axis azimuth of 125°. Strong-motion data inversion favours a SE-dipping fault plane for the largest event ( M w 5.9) with a slip patch of 18 km  x 15 km and a maximum slip of 0.8 m at 3.5 km depth. Peak ground accelerations ranging up to 0.98 g on the vertical component were recorded during the sequence, and the largest event produced horizontal accelerations of 0.2–0.4 g in the Christchurch central business district. Apparent stress estimates for the two largest events are 1.1 MPa ( M w 5.9) and 0.2 MPa ( M w 5.8), which are compatible with global averages, although lower than other large events in the Canterbury aftershock sequence. Coulomb stress analysis indicates that previous large earthquakes in the Canterbury sequence generate Coulomb stress increases for the two events only at relatively shallow depths (3–5 km). At greater depths, Coulomb stress decreases are predicted at the locations of the two events. The trend of the aftershocks is similar to mapped reverse faults north of Christchurch, and the high number of reverse-faulting mechanisms suggests that similar reverse-faulting structures are present in the offshore region east of Christchurch.

Description: A new hybrid wavelet–bootstrap–neural network (WBNN) model is proposed in this study for short term (1, 3 and 5 day; 1 and 2 week; and 1 and 2 month) urban water demand forecasting. The new method was tested using data from the city of Montreal in Canada. The performance of the WBNN method was compared with the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous input variables (ARIMAX), traditional NNs, wavelet analysis based NNs (WNN), bootstrap based NNs (BNN), and a simple naïve persistence index model. The WBNN model was developed as an ensemble of several NNs built using bootstrap resamples of wavelet sub-time series instead of raw datasets. The results demonstrated that the hybrid WBNN and WNN models produced significantly more accurate forecasting results than the traditional NN, BNN, ARIMA and ARIMAX models. It was also found that the WBNN model reduces the uncertainty associated with the forecasts, and the performance of WBNN forecasted confidence bands were found to be more accurate and reliable than BNN forecasted confidence bands. It was found in this study that maximum temperature and total precipitation improved the accuracy of water demand forecasts using wavelet analysis. The performance of WBNN models was also compared for different numbers of bootstrap resamples (i.e., 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500) and it was found that WBNN models produced optimum results with different numbers of bootstrap resamples for different lead time forecasts with considerable variability.

Description: ABSTRACT Although mechanistic reaction networks have been developed to quantify the biogeochemical evolution of subsurface systems associated with bioremediation, it is difficult in practice to quantify the onset and distribution of these transitions at the field scale using commonly collected wellbore datasets. As an alternative approach to the mechanistic methods, we develop a data-driven, statistical model to identify biogeochemical transitions using various time-lapse aqueous geochemical data (e.g., Fe(II), sulfate, sulfide, acetate, and uranium concentrations) and induced polarization (IP) data. We assume that the biogeochemical transitions can be classified as several dominant states that correspond to redox transitions and test the method at a uranium-contaminated site. The relationships between the geophysical observations and geochemical time-series vary depending upon the unknown underlying redox status, which is modeled as a hidden Markov random field. We estimate unknown parameters by maximizing the joint likelihood function using the maximization-expectation algorithm. The case study results show that when considered together aqueous geochemical data and IP imaginary conductivity provide a key diagnostic signature of biogeochemical stages. The developed method provides useful information for evaluating the effectiveness of bioremediation, such as the probability of being in specific redox stages following biostimulation where desirable pathways (e.g., uranium removal) are more highly favored. The use of geophysical data in the approach advances the possibility of using non-invasive methods to monitor critical biogeochemical system stages and transitions remotely and over field relevant scales (e.g., from square meters to several hectares).

Description: In recent years, a number of numerical modelling studies of transient sea-level rise (SLR) and seawater intrusion (SWI) in flux-controlled systems have reported an overshoot phenomenon, whereby the freshwater-saltwater interface temporarily extends further inland than the eventual steady-state position. In this study, we have carried out physical sand tank modelling of SLR-SWI in a flux-controlled unconfined aquifer setting to test if SWI overshoot is a measurable physical process. Photographs of the physical SLR experiments show, for the first time, that an overshoot occurs under controlled laboratory conditions. A sea-level drop (SLD) experiment was also carried out, and overshoot was again observed, whereby the interface was temporarily closer to the coast than the eventual steady-state position. This shows that an overshoot can occur for the case of a retreating interface. Numerical modelling corroborated the physical SLR and SLD experiments. The magnitude of the overshoot for SLR and SLD in the physical experiments was 24% of the change in steady-state interface position, albeit the laboratory setting is designed to maximise overshoot extent by adopting high groundwater flow gradients and large and rapid sea-level changes. While the likelihood of overshoot at the field scale appears to be low, this work has shown that it can be observed under controlled laboratory conditions.

Description: A new analytical solution of the flow equation has been developed to estimate the time to reach a near-equilibrium state in mixed aquifers, i.e. having unconfined and confined portions, following a large hydraulic perturbation. Near-equilibrium is defined as the time for an initial aquifer perturbation to dissipate by an average 95% across the aquifer.The new solution has been obtained by solving the flow system of a simplified conceptual model of a mixed aquifer using Laplace transforms. The conceptual model is based on two assumptions: 1) the groundwater flow can be reduced to a horizontal 1D problem; and 2) the transmissivity, a function of the saturated thickness, is assumed constant on the unconfined portion. This new solution depends on the storativity of the unconfined portion, the lengths of the unconfined and confined portions and the transmissivity, assumed to be constant and equal in both portions of the mixed aquifer. This solution was then tested and validated against a numerical flow model, where the variations of the saturated thickness and therefore variations of the transmissivity were either ignored, or properly modeled. The agreement between the results from the new solution and those from the numerical model is good, validating the use of this new solution to estimate the time to reach near-equilibrium in mixed aquifers. This solution for mixed aquifers, as well as the solutions for a fully confined or fully unconfined aquifer, have been used to estimate the time to reach near-equilibrium in thirteen large aquifers in the world. For those different aquifers, the time to reach near-equilibrium ranges between 0.7 ky to 2.4x10 7 ky. These results suggest that the present hydraulic heads in these aquifers are typically a mixture of responses induced from current and past hydrologic conditions and thus climate conditions. For some aquifers, the modern hydraulic heads may in fact depend upon hydrologic conditions resulting from several past climate cycles.

Description: The impact of contact angle on 2D spatial and temporal water content distribution during infiltration and drainage was experimentally studied. The 0.3-0.5 mm fraction of a quartz dune sand was treated and turned sub-critically repellent (contact angle of 33 0 , 48 0 , 56 0 , and 75 0 for S33, S48, S56, and S75, respectively). The media were packed uniformly in transparent flow chambers and water was supplied to the surface as a point source at different rates (1 to 20 ml/min). A sequence of grey-value images was taken by CCD camera during infiltration and subsequent drainage; grey values were converted to volumetric water content by water volume balance. Narrow and long plumes with water accumulation behind the downward moving wetting front (tip) and negative water gradient above it (tail) developed in the S56 and S75 media during infiltration at lower water application rates. The plumes became bulbous with spatially uniform water content distribution as water application rates increased. All plumes in these media propagated downward at a constant rate during infiltration and were frozen during drainage. In contrast, regular plume shapes were observed in the S33 and S48 media at all flow rates, and drainage profiles were non-monotonic with a transition plane at the depth that water reached during infiltration. Given that the studied media have similar pore-size distributions, the conclusion is that imbibition hindered by the non-zero contact angle induced pressure buildup at the wetting front (dynamic water entry value) that controlled the plume shape and internal water-content distribution during infiltration and drainage.

Description: Estimation of design quantiles of hydro-meteorological variables at critical locations in river basins is necessary for hydrological applications. To arrive at reliable estimates for locations (sites) where no or limited records are available, various regional frequency analysis (RFA) procedures have been developed over the past five decades. The most widely used procedure is based on Index-flood approach and L -moments. It assumes that values of scale and shape parameters of frequency distribution are identical across all the sites in a homogeneous region. In real world scenario, this assumption may not be valid even if a region is statistically homogeneous. To address this issue, a novel mathematical approach is proposed. It involves (i) identification of an appropriate frequency distribution to fit the random variable being analyzed for homogeneous region, (ii) use of a proposed transformation mechanism to map observations of the variable from original space to a dimensionless space where the form of distribution does not change, and variation in values of its parameters is minimal across sites, (iii) construction of a growth curve in the dimensionless space, and (iv) mapping the curve to the original space for the target site by applying inverse transformation to arrive at required quantile(s) for the site. Effectiveness of the proposed approach in predicting quantiles for ungauged sites is demonstrated through Monte-Carlo simulation experiments considering five frequency distributions that are widely used in RFA, and by case study on watersheds in conterminous United States. Results indicate that the proposed approach outperforms methods based on index-flood approach.

Description: Prediction of microbial surface water contamination is a formidable task because of the inherent randomness of environmental processes driving microbial fate and transport. In this article we develop a theoretical framework of a fully stochastic model of microbial transport in watersheds, and apply the theory to a simple flow network to demonstrate its use. The framework bridges the gap between microscopic behavior of individual microorganisms and macroscopic ensemble dynamics. This scaling is accomplished within a single mathematical framework, where each microorganism behaves according to a continuous-time discrete-space Markov process, and the Markov behavior of individual microbes gives rise to a non-homogeneous Poisson random field that describes microbial population dynamics. Mean value functions are derived, and the spatial and temporal distribution of water contamination risk is computed in a straightforward manner.

Description: The anomalously snowy winter season of 2010/11 in the Sierra Nevada is analyzed in terms of snow water equivalent (SWE) anomalies and the role of atmospheric rivers (ARs)―narrow channels of enhanced meridional water vapor transport between the tropics and extratropics. Mean April 1 SWE was 0.44 m (56%) above normal averaged over 100 snow sensors. AR occurrence was anomalously high during the period, with 20 AR dates during the season and 14 in the month of December 2010, compared to the mean occurrence of 9 dates per season. Fifteen out of the 20 AR dates were associated with the negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern. Analysis of all winter ARs in California during water years 1998–2011 indicates more ARs occur during the negative phase of AO and PNA, with the increase between positive and negative phases being ˜90% for AO, and ˜50% for PNA. The circulation pattern associated with concurrent negative phases of AO and PNA, characterized by cyclonic anomalies centered northwest of California, provides a favorable dynamical condition for ARs. The analysis suggests that the massive Sierra Nevada snowpack during the 2010/11 winter season is primarily related to anomalously high frequency of ARs favored by the joint phasing of −AO and −PNA, and that a secondary contribution is from increased snow accumulation during these ARs favored by colder air temperatures associated with −AO, −PNA and La Niña.

Description: The baseflow recession constant, K b , is used to characterize the interaction of groundwater and surface water systems. Estimation of K b is critical in many studies including rainfall-runoff modeling, estimation of low flow statistics at ungaged locations and baseflow separation methods. The performance of several estimators of K b are compared, including several new approaches which account for the impact of human withdrawals. A traditional semi-log estimation approach adapted to incorporate the influence of human withdrawals was preferred over other derivative-based estimators. Human withdrawals are shown to have a significant impact on the estimation of baseflow recessions, even when withdrawals are relatively small. Regional regression models are developed to relate seasonal estimates of K b to physical, climatic, and anthropogenic characteristics of stream-aquifer systems. Among the factors considered for explaining the behavior of K b , both drainage density and human withdrawals have significant and similar explanatory power. We document the importance of incorporating human withdrawals into models of the baseflow recession response of a watershed and the systemic downward bias associated with estimates of K b obtained without consideration of human withdrawals.

Description: There are significant uncertainties inherent in precipitation forecasts and these uncertainties can be communicated to users via large ensembles that are generated using stochastic models of forecast error. The Met Office and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology developed the Short Term Ensemble Prediction System (STEPS) which has been operational for a number of years. The initial formulation of Bowler et al. [2006] has been revised and extended to improve the performance over large domains, to include radar observation errors, and to facilitate the combination of forecasts from a number of sources. This paper reviews the formulation of STEPS, discusses those aspects of the formulation that have proved most problematic and presents some solutions. The performance of STEPS nowcasts is evaluated using a combination of case study examples and statistical verification from the UK. Routine forecast verification demonstrates that STEPS is capable of producing near optimal blends of a rainfall nowcast and high resolution NWP forecast. It also shows that the spread of STEPS nowcast ensembles are a good predictor of the error in the control member (unperturbed) nowcast.

Description: In this study seasonal and interannual variability of the main atmospheric moisture sources over eight regions in the Mediterranean basin were investigated along a twenty one year period. The Lagrangian dispersion model FLEXPART, developed by Stohl and James [2004, 2005], was applied to identify the contribution of humidity to the moisture budget of each region. This methodology is used to compute budgets of evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) by calculating changes in the specific humidity along backward trajectories, for the preceding ten-day periods. The results show clear seasonal differences in the moisture sources between wet and dry seasons. The Western Mediterranean Sea is the dominant moisture source for almost all the regions in the Mediterranean basin during the wet season, while the local net evaporation dominates during the dry season. The highest interannual variability is found in contributions to the Iberian Peninsula, Italy and the Eastern Mediterranean. It is seen that the role of teleconnections is more limited than for the precipitation recorded in the region.

Description: We present a new hydrologic model based on the frequency distribution of hillslope landscape elements along the stream network as a basis for simulating landscape-scale hydrologic connectivity and catchment runoff. Hydrologic connectivity describes shallow water table continuity between upland and stream elements of the catchment and is important for the movement of water and solutes to streams. This concept has gained traction in physical hydrology but has received less attention in rainfall-runoff modeling. Our model is based on the empirical studies of Jencso et al. [2009; 2010], who found a strong correlation between the duration of shallow groundwater connectivity across hillslope, riparian, and stream zones and upslope accumulated area. We explored the relationship between catchment form and function by testing the extent to which streamflow generation could be predicted by a model based on the topographic form (distribution of landscape elements) of the catchment. We applied the model to the Stringer Creek catchment of the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest, located in Montana, USA. Detailed field observations collected by Jencso et al. [2009] were used to inform the underpinnings of the model and to corroborate internal consistency of the model simulations. The model demonstrated good agreement between the observed and predicted streamflow and connectivity duration curves. The ability of this model to simulate internal dynamics without conditioning the parameters on these data suggests that it has the potential to be more confidently extrapolated to other shallow, topographically driven catchments than hydrologic models that fail to consistently reproduce internal variables.

Description: Knowledge of hydrological model complexity can aid selection of an optimal prediction model out of a set of available models. Optimal model selection is formalized as selection of the least complex model out of a subset of models that have lower empirical risk. This may be considered equivalent to minimizing an upper bound on prediction error, defined here as the mathematical expectation of empirical risk. In this paper we derive an upper bound that is free from assumptions on data and underlying process distribution as well as on independence of model predictions over time. We demonstrate that hydrological model complexity, as defined in the presented theoretical framework, plays an important role in determining the upper bound. The model complexity also acts as a stabilizer to a hydrological model selection problem if it is deemed ill-posed. We provide an algorithm for computing complexity of any arbitrary hydrological model. We also demonstrate that hydrological model complexity has a geometric interpretation as the size of model output space. The presented theory is applied to quantify complexities of two hydrological model structures: SAC-SMA and SIXPAR. It detects that SAC-SMA is indeed more complex than SIXPAR. We also develop an algorithm to estimate the upper bound on prediction error, which is applied on 5 different rainfall-runoff model structures that vary in complexity. We show that a model selection problem is stabilized by regularizing it with model complexity. Complexity regularized model selection yields models that are robust in predicting future but yet unseen data.

Description: The temporal dynamics and spatial distribution of the concentrations of dissolved gases (He, Ar, Kr, N 2 , O 2 and CO 2 ) in an infiltrating groundwater system fed by the peri-alpine River Thur (Switzerland) were analysed before, during and after a single, well-defined flood event. The analysis was based on measurements taken in five different groundwater observation wells that were located approximately 10 m apart and tapped the same groundwater body, but were situated in three different riparian zones. The input of O 2 into the groundwater as a result of the formation of excess air was found to be of the same order of magnitude as that resulting from the advection of river water, although the amount of excess air formed and the amount of O 2 delivered varied significantly among the riparian zones. The results suggest that the input of O 2 into groundwater as a result of excess air formation is controlled not only by the hydraulic conditions prevailing in the river and the groundwater, but also by the thickness of the confining bed at the top of the aquifer. The sandy gravel aquifer itself is too coarse to trap a significant amount of air during the water level rise. The clay layer confining the aquifer, however, acts as a barrier hindering the escape of air from the subsoil to the surface, and hence is likely to be a key factor controlling the trapping and dissolution of air in groundwater.

Description: Estimation of parameter values in hydrological models has gradually moved from subjective, trial-and-error methods into objective estimation methods. Translation of nature's complexity to bit operations is an uncertain process as a result of data errors, epistemic gaps, computational deficiencies, and other limitations, and relies on calibration to fit model output to observed data. The robustness of the calibrated parameter values to these types of uncertainties is therefore an important concern. In this study, we investigated how the hydrological robustness of the model-parameter values varied within the geometric structure of the behavioral (well-performing) parameter space with a depth function based on α shapes and an in-depth posterior performance analysis of the simulations in relation to the observed discharge uncertainty. The α shape depth is a non-convex measure that may provide an accurate and tight delimitation of the geometric structure of the behavioral space for both uni- and multimodal parameter-value distributions. WASMOD, a parsimonious rainfall-runoff model, was applied to six Honduran and one UK catchment, with differing data quality and hydrological characteristics. Model evaluation was done with two performance measures, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and one based on flow-duration curves. Deep parameter vectors were in general found to be more hydrologically robust than shallow ones in the analyses we performed; model-performance values increased with depth, deviations to the observed data for the high-flow aspects of the hydrograph generally decreased with increasing depth, deep parameter vectors generally transferred in time with maintained high performance values, and the model had a low sensitivity to small changes in the parameter values. The tight delimitation of the behavioral space provided by the α shapes depth function showed a potential to improve the efficiency of calibration techniques that require further exploration. For computational reasons only a three-parameter model could be used, which limited the applicability of this depth measure and the conclusions drawn in this paper, especially concerning hydrological robustness at low flows.

Description: The cosmic-ray neutron probe measures soil moisture over tens of hectares, thus averaging spatially variable soil moisture fields. A previous paper described how variable soil moisture profiles affect the integrated cosmic-ray neutron signal from which depth-average soil moisture is computed. Here, we investigate the effect of horizontal heterogeneity on the relationship between neutron counts and average soil moisture. Observations from a distributed sensor network at a site in southern Arizona indicate that the horizontal component of the total variance of the soil moisture field is less variably in time than the vertical component. Using results from neutron particle transport simulations we show that 1-D binary distributions of soil moisture may affect both the mean and variance of neutron counts of a cosmic-ray neutron detector placed arbitrarily in a soil moisture field, potentially giving rise to an underestimate of the footprint average soil moisture. Similar simulations that used 1 and 2-D Gaussian soil moisture fields indicate consistent mean and variances of a randomly placed detector if the correlation length scales are short (〈˜30 m) and/or the soil moisture field variance is small (〈0.032 m 6 m -6 ). Taken together, these soil moisture observations and neutron transport simulations show that horizontal heterogeneity likely has a small effect on the relationship between mean neutron counts and average soil moisture for soils under natural conditions.

Description: We present a method for estimating the errors on local and global wavelet power spectra using the jackknife approach to error estimation, and compare results with jackknifed multitaper (MT) spectrum estimates. We test the methods on both synthetic and real data, the latter being free air gravity over the Congo Basin. To satisfy the independence requirement of the jackknife we investigate the orthogonality properties of the 2-D Morlet wavelet. Although Morlet wavelets are non-orthogonal, we show that careful selection of parameters can yield approximate orthogonality in space and azimuth. We also find that, when computed via the Fourier transform, the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) contains errors at very long wavelengths due to the discretization of large-scale wavelets in the Fourier domain. We hence recommend the use of convolution in the space-domain at these scales, even though this is computationally more expensive. Finally, in providing an investigation into the bandwidth resolution of CWT and MT spectra and errors at long wavelengths, we show that the Morlet wavelet is superior in this regard to Slepian tapers. Wavelets with higher bandwidth resolution deliver smaller spectral error estimates, in contrast to the MT method, where tapers with higher bandwidth resolution deliver larger errors. This results in the fan-WT having better spectral estimation properties at long wavelengths than Slepian MTs.

Description: Core flows inverted from time-dependent geomagnetic field models image the geodynamo at the top of its generation region, the Earth’s outer core. Physical assumptions incorporated in these inversions affect the resulting flows. Based on rapid rotation dominance, two assumptions similar in form yet different in essence have been proposed: tangential geostrophy (TG, LeMouël 1984 ) and columnar flow (CF, Amit & Olson 2004 ). We recall that CF is theoretically consistent with the quasi-geostrophy (QG) theory for an incompressible fluid with spherical solid boundaries whereas TG is not. As such, we highlight the importance of applying the CF assumption when inverting geomagnetic data for interior core (columnar) flows that can be used in kinematic dynamo and thermal convection models in the Boussinesq approximation. Next we evaluate the non-uniqueness associated with CF flows. The areas of ambiguous patches at the core surface where invisible TG or CF flows reside are roughly comparable. The spatial distribution of ambiguous patches for both TG and CF is quite asymmetric about the equator, so assuming equatorial symmetry is expected to reduce the non-uniqueness significantly. In fact, for assumed equatorial symmetry, the only possible non-unique flows will be those along hypothetical -contours in the opposite hemispheres that their equatorial plane projections are parallel. TG flows exhibit a strong Atlantic/Pacific hemispheric dichotomy and a well-defined eccentric gyre whereas in CF flows the dichotomy between these two hemispheres is weaker and the gyre is less clear suggesting that the eccentric gyre might not conserve mass. Both TG and CF upwelling/downwelling patterns are strongly localized in the equatorial region. In addition, in both cases upwelling/downwelling is correlated with equatorward/poleward flow respectively, as expected for QG convection. CF upwelling is more intense than TG upwelling but the magnitude ratio is smaller than the factor 2 distinguishing the analytical expressions of the two assumptions. This smaller magnitude ratio is due to the fact that presently observed geomagnetic secular variation features are mostly explained by magnetic field advection by toroidal core flow in the frozen-flux approximation. Robust upwelling features below India/Indonesia may be viewed as geomagnetic evidence for whole core convection.

Description: Electric field variations coincident with the passage of seismic waves are commonly observed irrespective of whether the seismic events are natural or artificial. We present 10 examples of electric field variations obtained for artificial seismic waves whose typical frequency is a few times higher than that of natural seismic waves. In several cases, the electric fields showed left- and/or right-handed circular polarization, indicating the motion of ions with positive and/or negative electric charge, respectively, generated by ground motion in the Earth's magnetic field. In three cases, we have estimated transfer functions relating the electric field to the ground velocity. Furthermore, we have performed time-frequency analysis with the continuous wavelet transform and have constructed spectrograms of the electric field and ground velocity. In both results, we have found some peaks at the specific frequencies where the resonance of the motion of ions in groundwater with the Earth's magnetic field is expected, thereby supporting the proposed mechanism in terms of the seismic dynamo effect.

Description: The approximate forward modelling method using Fourier analysis has been used in 2-D applications for several decades. It involves decomposition of the terrain parameters, either the resistivity or the layer thickness, into a Fourier series expansion to simplify the problem to that of a 1-D situation. In this study, the Fourier analysis is applied to 3-D forward modelling for the purposes of shallow DC resistivity imaging with pole–pole array. Our work is to assess advantages and drawbacks of the simplified approach by comparing to exact 3-D solutions, method of moments (MoM) and surface integrals and to the Born approximation applied to MoM. While the Fourier analysis method offers very short calculation times, it shows a significant, albeit systematic, reduction of the anomaly amplitudes; and its ability to delineate anomaly sources is lower than the other methods. Nevertheless, its rapidity makes it an interesting first approach in the modelling of DC resistivity results.

Description: A 3-D density model of Greece was developed by gravity modelling constrained by 2-D seismic profiles. Densities were defined from seismic velocities using the Nafe & Drake and Birch empirical functions for the sediments, crust and upper mantle. Sediments in the North Aegean are 6 km thick, and are deposited in transtensional basins developing by dextral strike slip motion of the North Anatolian Fault. The Cyclades, central Aegean Sea, are free of sediments. South of Crete, in the Libyan Sea, sediments are approximately 11 km thick. At the western Hellenides sediments of up to 8 km thickness have been accumulated in basins formed by crustal bending and southwestwards thrusting of the Hellenic napes. At a deeper crustal level variations of crustal type and thickness cause density variations explaining large part of the observed gravity field. The North Aegean domain is characterized by a 24-km-thick continental crust, including sediments, whereas the western Cyclades, in central Aegean area, have a slightly thickened crust of 26 km. Crustal thicknesses vary between 16 km in the deep Ionian and Cretan Seas to 40 km in the western Hellenides. In western Crete crust is 30–32 km thick, thinning eastwards to only 26 km. The deep Ionian basin, the Mediterranean Ridge, as well as most of the Libyan Sea are underlain by oceanic crust. In western Turkey the crust thickens from 30 km along the coast to 34 km to the interior. A third deeper level of density variations occurs in the upper mantle. Subduction of the oceanic lithosphere below the Aegean continental domain destabilizes the thermal field, uplifting the isotherms by convection and conduction below the Aegean Sea. Consequently, volume expansion of the upper mantle and lithological changes reduce its density and depress the gravity intensity. This low density–velocity upper mantle extends from the Sporades islands in the North Aegean to the Cretan Sea, occupying the space between the cold subducted Ionian oceanic lithosphere and the Aegean continental Moho. Upper mantle densities vary from 3.24 g cm –3 in the Aegean area to 3.29 g cm –3 below western Greece and the Ionian and Libyan Seas.

Description: The magnetic susceptibility measured in alternating field can be resolved into a component that is in-phase with applied field and a component that is out-of-phase. While the former component is widely used for solving various geophysical, geological and environmental problems, the latter component is paid only minor attention. The theoretical relationship between the frequency-dependent in-phase susceptibility and the out-of-phase susceptibility is described by the /2 law valid for materials in which the latter is due to presence of magnetic particles on transition between superparamagnetic and stable single-domain states possessing sufficiently wide distribution of relaxation times. To advantageously use the out-of-phase susceptibility, which is measured simultaneously with the in-phase susceptibility during one measuring process, in magnetic granulometry, new parameters, X ON and X OD , are proposed approximately converting the out-of-phase susceptibility into the X FN and X FD parameters of the frequency-dependent susceptibility. The validity of the new parameters was tested through mathematical modelling and through investigating samples of various sediments. The correlations found seem to be acceptable from the practical point of view. In addition, simple test is proposed for checking that the out-of-phase susceptibility is solely due to the viscous phenomena and not due to electrical eddy currents or weak field hysteresis. As the out-of-phase susceptibility is measured automatically along the in-phase-susceptibility with some instruments and can be directly interpreted in magnetic granulometry terms, it is to recommend to be routinely investigated in solving various problems of environmental magnetism.

Description: The analysis of marine magnetotelluric data is often complicated by disturbing signals that are caused by small-scale periodic movements of the instrument. The motion-induced noise leads to a bias and/or severe scattering in the derived magnetotelluric transfer functions. Both the motion itself and its effects on the magnetic and telluric time-series are investigated in this study using an 80 d magnetotelluric data set that includes dynamic tilt records measured in the Pacific Ocean off Costa Rica. We apply a standard motion removal technique as well as a newly developed method to correct for motion-induced noise. The resulting magnetotelluric transfer functions are of significantly better quality than the uncorrected ones. Furthermore, the study of the properties of motion noise leads to conclusions about the optimal processing approach even in case of data sets where an explicit correction for that noise is not possible.

Description: Numerous monitoring applications make use of seismic coda waves to evaluate velocity changes in the Earth. This raises the question of the spatial sensitivity of coda wave-based measurements. Here, we investigate the depth sensitivity of coda waves to local velocity perturbations using 2-D numerical wavefield simulations. We calculate the impulse response at the surface before and after a slight perturbation of the velocity within a thin layer at depth is introduced. We perform a parametric analysis of the observed apparent relative velocity changes, obs , versus the depth of the thin perturbed layer. Through the analysis of the decay of obs , we can discriminate two different regimes: one for a shallow perturbation and the other for a deep perturbation. We interpret the first regime as the footprint of the 1-D depth sensitivity of the fundamental surface wave mode. To interpret the second regime, we need to model the sensitivity of the multiply scattered body waves in the bulk. We show that the depth sensitivity of coda waves can be modelled as a combination of bulk wave sensitivity and surface wave sensitivity. The transition between these two regimes is governed by mode conversions due to scattering. We indicate the importance of surface waves for the sensitivity of coda waves at shallow depths and at early times in the coda. At later times, bulk waves clearly dominate the depth sensitivity and offer the possibility of monitoring changes at depths below the sensitivity of the surface waves. Based on the transition between the two regimes, we can discriminate a change that occurs at the surface from a change that occurs at depth. This is illustrated for shallow depth perturbations through an example from lunar data.

Description: Local and regional seismicity jointly recorded by two dense small aperture arrays, one installed at surface and one at 1.3 km depth, constitutes an interesting data set useful for coda observations. Applying array techniques to earthquakes recorded at the two arrays we measure slowness, backazimuth and correlation coefficient of the coherent coda wave signals in five frequency bands in the range 1–10 Hz. Slowness distributions show marked differences between surface and underground, with slow signals at surface (slowness greater than 1.0 s km –1 ) that are not observed underground. We interpret these coherent signals as surface waves produced by the interaction of body waves with the free surface characterized by rough topography. The backazimuth values measured in the frequency bands centred at 1.5 and 3 Hz are almost uniformly distributed between 0 and 360°, while those measured at higher frequencies show different distributions between surface and underground. On the contrary, the earthquake envelopes show very similar coda shapes between surface and underground recordings, with an almost constant coda-amplitude ratio (between 4 and 8) in a wide frequency range.

Description: We quantify the seismicity on the island of Taiwan using the frequency–magnitude statistics of earthquakes since 1900. A break in Gutenberg–Richter scaling for large earthquakes in global seismicity has been observed, this break is also observed in our Taiwan study. The seismic data from the Central Weather Bureau Seismic Network are in good agreement with the Gutenberg–Richter relation taking b   1 when M  〈 7. For large earthquakes, M ≥ 7, the seismic data fit Gutenberg–Richter scaling with b   1.5. If the Gutenberg–Richter scaling for M  〈 7 earthquakes is extrapolated to larger earthquakes, we would expect a M  〉 8 earthquake in the study region about every 25 yr. However, our analysis shows a lower frequency of occurrence of large earthquakes so that the expected frequency of M  〉 8 earthquakes is about 200 yr. The level of seismicity for smaller earthquakes on Taiwan is about 12 times greater than in Southern California and the possibility of a M   9 earthquake north or south of Taiwan cannot be ruled out. In light of the Fukushima, Japan nuclear disaster, we also discuss the implications of our study for the three operating nuclear power plants on the coast of Taiwan.

Description: We study the problem of determining an unknown microseismic event location relative to previously located events using a single monitoring array in a monitoring well. We show that using the available information about the previously located events for locating new events is advantageous compared to locating each event independently. By analysing confidence regions, we compare the performance of two previously proposed location methods, double-difference and interferometry, for varying signal-to-noise ratio and uncertainty in the velocity model. We show that one method may have an advantage over another depending on the experiment geometry, assumptions about uncertainty in velocity and recorded signal, etc. We propose a unified approach to relative event location that includes double-difference and interferometry as special cases, and is applicable to velocity models and well geometries of arbitrary complexity, producing location estimators that are superior to those of double-difference and interferometry.

Description: The rapid expansion of broad-band seismic networks over the last decade has paved the way for a new generation of global tomographic models. Significantly improved resolution of global upper-mantle and crustal structure can now be achieved, provided that structural information is extracted effectively from both surface and body waves and that the effects of errors in the data are controlled and minimized. Here, we present a new global, vertically polarized shear speed model that yields considerable improvements in resolution, compared to previous ones, for a variety of features in the upper mantle and crust. The model, SL2013sv, is constrained by an unprecedentedly large set of waveform fits (~3/4 of a million broad-band seismograms), computed in seismogram-dependent frequency bands, up to a maximum period range of 11–450 s. Automated multimode inversion of surface and S -wave forms was used to extract a set of linear equations with uncorrelated uncertainties from each seismogram. The equations described perturbations in elastic structure within approximate sensitivity volumes between sources and receivers. Going beyond ray theory, we calculated the phase of every mode at every frequency and its derivative with respect to S - and P -velocity perturbations by integration over a sensitivity area in a 3-D reference model; the (normally small) perturbations of the 3-D model required to fit the waveforms were then linearized using these accurate derivatives. The equations yielded by the waveform inversion of all the seismograms were simultaneously inverted for a 3-D model of shear and compressional speeds and azimuthal anisotropy within the crust and upper mantle. Elaborate outlier analysis was used to control the propagation of errors in the data (source parameters, timing at the stations, etc.). The selection of only the most mutually consistent equations exploited the data redundancy provided by our data set and strongly reduced the effect of the errors, increasing the resolution of the imaging. Our new shear speed model is parametrized on a triangular grid with a ~280 km spacing. In well-sampled continental domains, lateral resolution approaches or exceeds that of regional-scale studies. The close match of known surface expressions of deep structure with the distribution of anomalies in the model provides a useful benchmark. In oceanic regions, spreading ridges are very well resolved, with narrow anomalies in the shallow mantle closely confined near the ridge axis, and those deeper, down to 100–120 km, showing variability in their width and location with respect to the ridge. Major subduction zones worldwide are well captured, extending from shallow depths down to the transition zone. The large size of our waveform fit data set also provides a strong statistical foundation to re-examine the validity field of the JWKB approximation and surface wave ray theory. Our analysis shows that the approximations are likely to be valid within certain time–frequency portions of most seismograms with high signal-to-noise ratios, and these portions can be identified using a set of consistent criteria that we apply in the course of waveform fitting.

Description: Widespread disturbance within forested catchments typically increases runoff. However, following widespread fire in 1939 throughout south-east Australia Kuczera [1987] reported persistent reductions in runoff that were attributed to increased evapotranspiration from regenerating ‘ash’ forests. Kuczera projected ongoing reductions of water yield for ~150 years. In 2003 widespread fire in the headwaters of the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) again stimulated extensive regeneration of ash forests, raising the prospect of subsequent water yield reductions. To understand the potential impact of the 2003 bushfires we re-evaluated yield reductions from three of the catchments originally studied by Kuczera using the same calibration period. We also used an expanded pre-fire calibration period (1908-1938) based on data not originally available to Kuczera. The trend of post-fire water yield that we observed in 1939-affected catchments is qualitatively consistent with Kuczera's projections, but the quantitative details were, as expected, sensitive to the pre-fire calibration period used. We then used a simplified method to examine a further five ash-dominated catchments affected by the 2003 fires. We report relative reductions in mean annual stream flow in all five catchments and a statistically significant (α=0.05) post-fire reduction in one of five catchments. Post-fire yield reductions during the austral summer (October-April) were greater in relative magnitude in all five catchments and were statistically significant (α=0.05) in three of five catchments. We conclude that a post-bushfire Kuczera-type response may be widespread in regenerating ash forests. On that basis we anticipate post-fire yield reductions in ash forests elsewhere and conclude that further reductions in stream flow are likely in the MDB for at least another decade.

Description: Drought triggers are patterns in hydro-climatic variables that herald upcoming droughts and form the basis for mitigation plans. This study develops a new method for identification of triggers for hydrologic droughts by examining the association between the various hydro-climatic variables and streamflows. Since numerous variables influence streamflows to varying degrees, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is utilized for dimensionality reduction in predictor hydro-climatic variables. The joint dependence between the first two principal components, that explain over 98% of the variability in the predictor set, and streamflows is computed by a scale-free measure of association using asymmetric Archimedean copulas over two study watersheds in Indiana, USA, with unregulated streamflows. The M6 copula model is found to be suitable for the data and is utilized to find expected values and ranges of predictor hydro-climatic variables for different streamflow quantiles. This information is utilized to develop drought triggers for one-month lead time over the study areas. For the two study watersheds, soil moisture, precipitation and runoff are found to provide the fidelity to resolve amongst different drought classes. Combining the strengths of PCA for dimensionality reduction and copulas for building joint dependence allows the development of hydrologic drought triggers in an efficient manner.

Description: We present a unified asymptotic theory of rainfall extremes including annual maxima, excesses above high thresholds, and intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves that builds on previous findings and derive new non-asymptotic results. The analysis is based on stationary multifractal representations of rainfall and produces extensions of the familiar results from extreme value (EV) and extreme excess (EE) theories. The latter results apply to the T -yr maximum as and the excess above z as . By exploiting the scaling relationship among the distributions of rainfall intensity for different averaging durations d , the multifractal asymptotics include, in addition, results in the small-scale limits and with α 〉 0. In all cases the maximum distributions are of the generalized extreme value (GEV) type, but the index k depends on the limit considered. Multifractal models produce also asymptotic scaling results for the IDF curves. For the non-asymptotic case ( d and T finite), we obtain accurate approximations of the IDF curves and derive a semi-theoretical formula for the index k of the GEV model that best approximates the distribution of the annual maximum over a finite range of return-period intensities. The non-asymptotic analysis explains several observed deviations of rainfall extremes from the asymptotic predictions, such as the tendency of k to decrease as the averaging duration d increases and the tendency of the IDF curves to converge as d or the return period T increase.

Description: Remaining oil saturation established by waterflooding was measured in Indiana limestone in its original, water-wet state and under mixed-wet conditions established by adding organic acid to the oil phase. The porous plate technique was used to establish initial oil saturations ranging from S nwi = 0.23 to 0.93 under capillary-dominated conditions. For water-wet conditions, the residual oil saturation increased linearly with its initial saturation. In contrast, the remaining oil saturation under mixed-wet conditions, S nw , displayed three distinct regimes. First, S nw increased with its initial saturation up to S nwi = 0.58. Next, S nw decreased from S nwi = 0.58 to 0.76. Finally, S nw increased again as S nwi approached one. The non-monotonic dependence of S nw on S nwi at S nwi 〉 0.5 is well described by a concave-up quadratic function, and may be a salient feature of mixed-wet rocks.

Description: We present a general phenomenological formalism for the modeling of hydraulic head behaviour in naturally fractured aquifers. A non local in time version of the double porosity model is developed for Euclidean and fractal reservoirs. In the fractal case, time non-locality allows to find the geometric and topological factors responsible for subdiffusive behaviour in such heterogeneous environments. Opposite to other fractal models presented in the literature Chang and Yortsos [1990], our model include dead-ends-backbone interactions instead of matrix-fracture interactions with clear and well defined scaling exponents, thus giving a better characterization of the reservoir after such parameters are estimated. Applications to field tests are discussed. In particular, a distinctive short time head behaviour during well tests is found.

Description: The publicly available global discharge database is limited in spatial and temporal coverage. Although regional exceptions exist, the population of the database has declined over the past several years. As discharge is one of the most important parameters for modeling hydrological interactions, alternative measuring techniques must be sought. In the recent past, satellite altimetry has been investigated as an alternative for monitoring inland water level. In the present study, altimetry footprints in the vicinity of river gauging stations for the Amazon, Amur, Brahmaputra, Danube, Don, Mekong, Niger, Ob and Vistula rivers are analyzed for a functional relationship between the water level measurements from altimetry and discharge from the gauging stations. Such a functional relationship is conventionally established via a rating curve computed using simultaneous data. This study proposes a statistical approach based on quantile functions to infer this functional relation without the need for having synchronous datasets. The statistical approach provides the opportunity of extracting discharge values from altimetry data for rivers like the Mekong, Brahmaputra, Don and Vistula for which the discharge measurements at the selected gauges were made before the age of satellites. The algorithm is then validated over those rivers which do have discharge measurements available within periods of altimetry. Our validation shows that our algorithm is in the same quality range as the conventional approach. We are thus able to salvage pre-satellite altimetry discharge data and turn them into active use for the satellite altimetry time frame.

Description: For the present 2-D lithospheric density modelling, we selected three geotransects of more than 1000 km in length each crossing the southern Indian shield, south of 16°N, in N–S and E–W directions. The model is based on the assumption of local isostatic equilibrium and is constrained by the topography, gravity and geoid anomalies, by geothermal data, and where available by seismic data. Our integrated modelling approach reveals a crustal configuration with the Moho depth varying from ~40 km beneath the Dharwar Craton, and ~39 km beneath the Southern Granulite Terrane to about 15–20 km beneath the adjoining oceans. The lithospheric thickness varies significantly along the three profiles from ~70–100 km under the adjoining oceans to ~130–135 km under the southern block of Southern Granulite Terrane including Sri Lanka and increasing gradually to ~165–180 km beneath the northern block of Southern Granulite Terrane and the Dharwar Craton. This step-like lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary (LAB) structure indicates a normal lithospheric thickness beneath the adjoining oceans, the northern block of Southern Granulite Terrane and the Dharwar Craton. The thin lithosphere below the southern block of Southern Granulite Terrane including Sri Lanka is, however, atypical considering its age. Our results suggest that the southern Indian shield as a whole cannot be supported isostatically only by thickened crust; a thin and hot lithosphere beneath the southern block of Southern Granulite Terrane including Sri Lanka is required to explain the high topography, gravity, geoid and crustal temperatures. The widespread thermal perturbation during Pan-African (550 Ma) metamorphism and the breakup of Gondwana during late Cretaceous are proposed as twin cause mechanism for the stretching and/or convective removal of the lower part of lithospheric mantle and its replacement by hotter and lighter asthenosphere in the southern block of Southern Granulite Terrane including Sri Lanka. Unusually thinned LAB beneath the region near Bangalore apparently indicates the preserved tectonocompositional effect of late Proterozoic rifted margin of Dharwar Craton.

Description: We derive a generalized theory for gravitationally self-consistent, static sea level variations on earth models of arbitrary complexity that takes into account the redistribution of sediments. The theory is an extension of previous work that incorporated, into the governing equations, shoreline migration due to local sea level variations and changes in the geometry of grounded, marine-based ice. In addition, we use viscoelastic Love number theory to present a version of the new theory valid for spherically symmetric earth models. The Love number theory accounts for the gravitational, deformational and rotational effects of the sediment redistribution. As a first, illustrative application of the new theory, we compute the perturbation in sea level driven by an idealized pulse of sediment transport into the Gulf of Mexico. We demonstrate that incorporating a gravitationally self-consistent water load in this case significantly improves the accuracy of sea level predictions relative to previous simplified treatments of the sediment redistribution.

Description: Models for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) can provide constraints on rheology of the mantle if past ice thickness variations are assumed to be known. The Pleistocene ice loading histories that are used to obtain such constraints are based on an a priori 1-D mantle viscosity profile that assumes a single deformation mechanism for mantle rocks. Such a simplified viscosity profile makes it hard to compare the inferred mantle rheology to inferences from seismology and laboratory experiments. It is unknown what constraints GIA observations can provide on more realistic mantle rheology with an ice history that is not based on an a priori mantle viscosity profile. This paper investigates a model for GIA with a new ice history for Fennoscandia that is constrained by palaeoclimate proxies and glacial sediments. Diffusion and dislocation creep flow law data are taken from a compilation of laboratory measurements on olivine. Upper-mantle temperature data sets down to 400 km depth are derived from surface heatflow measurements, a petrochemical model for Fennoscandia and seismic velocity anomalies. Creep parameters below 400 km are taken from an earlier study and are only varying with depth. The olivine grain size and water content (a wet state, or a dry state) are used as free parameters. The solid Earth response is computed with a global spherical 3-D finite-element model for an incompressible, self-gravitating Earth. We compare predictions to sea level data and GPS uplift rates in Fennoscandia. The objective is to see if the mantle rheology and the ice model is consistent with GIA observations. We also test if the inclusion of dislocation creep gives any improvements over predictions with diffusion creep only, and whether the laterally varying temperatures result in an improved fit compared to a widely used 1-D viscosity profile (VM2). We find that sea level data can be explained with our ice model and with information on mantle rheology from laboratory experiments, heatflow and seismology and a pure olivine rheology above 400 km. Moreover, laterally heterogeneous models provide a significantly better fit to relative sea level data than the VM2 viscosity, for our ice model as well as for the ICE-5G model that is based on the VM2 profile. The new ice model gives different constraints on mantle rheology than the ICE-5G model, indicating a possible bias towards mantle viscosity in the latter or shortcomings in our ice model. Present-day uplift rates for a dry rheology are close to GPS observed uplift rate for certain combinations of grain size and temperature fields. Sea level data show a preference for a wet olivine rheology, but in that case uplift rates are too low for all grain sizes and temperature fields. The difficulty to fit sea level data and uplift rate data simultaneously can not be resolved by varying creep parameters below 400 km. Uncertainties in the flow law and the neglect of other materials in the upper mantle, as well as the neglect of flow in the crust could affect our conclusions.

Description: Thermal and dynamical evolution of planets is controlled by thermal convection in planetary mantles. Mantle compressibility, which measures volume change due to pressure change and its associated energetic effects, can have important effects on planetary mantle convection. However, key issues including marginal stability analysis, thermal boundary properties and heat transfer in compressible mantle convection are not well understood. This paper studies the influence of mantle compressibility on thermal convection in an isoviscous and compressible fluid with infinite Prandtl number, using both marginal stability analysis and numerical modelling. For the marginal stability analysis, a new formulation of the propagator matrix method is implemented to compute the critical Rayleigh number Ra c and the corresponding eigenfunctions for compressible convection at different wavelengths (i.e. wavenumber k x ) and dissipation number Di which measures the compressibility. Ra c from the analysis is in a good agreement with that determined from the numerical experiment using the eigenfunctions as initial perturbations. Our study suggests that if Ra is defined by the surface density, the minimum Ra c may occur at non-zero Di . Finite element models are computed for compressible mantle convection at different Ra and Di . Heat flux and thermal boundary layer (TBL) properties including boundary layer thickness and temperature difference are quantified and analysed from the numerical results. Scaling laws of temperature differences across TBLs and of the heat flux are derived analytically for compressible mantle convection and are verified by the numerical results. This study shows that while TBL thicknesses and the heat flux are still scaled with Ra to the –1/3 and 1/3 power, respectively, as those for incompressible convection, they also strongly depend on Di . In particular, compressibility breaks the symmetry for the top and bottom TBLs, and the ratios of thickness and temperature difference for the top TBL to those for the bottom TBL are exp ( Di /2). These results have important implications for compressible mantle convection.

Description: We present a detailed study of tsunami-induced tilt at in-land sites, to test the interest and feasibility of such analysis for tsunami detection and modelling. We studied tiltmeter and broadband seismometer records of northern Chile, detecting a clear signature of the tsunamis generated by the 2007 Tocopilla ( M  = 7.6) and the 2010 Maule ( M  = 8.8) earthquakes. We find that these records are dominated by the tilt due to the elastic loading of the oceanic floor, with a small effect of the horizontal gravitational attraction. We modelled the Maule tsunami using the seismic source model proposed by Delouis et al. and a bathymetric map, correctly fitting three tide gauge records of the area (Antofagasta, Iquique and Arica). At all the closest stations (7 STS2, 2 long-base tiltmeters), we correctly modelled the first few hours of the tilt signal for the Maule tsunami. The only phase mismatch is for the site that is closer to the ocean. We find a tilt response of 0.005–0.01 μm at 7 km away from the coastline in response to a sea level amplitude change of 10 cm. For the Maule earthquake, we observe a clear tilt signal starting 20 min before the arrival time of the tsunami at the nearest point on the coastline. This capability of tilt or seismic sensors to detect distant tsunamis before they arrive has been successfully tested with a scenario megathrust in the southern Peru-northern Chile seismic gap. However, for large events near the stations, this analysis may no longer be feasible, due to the large amplitude of the long-period seismic signals expected to obscure the loading signal. Inland tilt measurements of tsunamis smooth out short, often unmodelled wavelengths of the sea level perturbation, thus providing robust, large-scale images of the tsunami. Furthermore, tilt measurements are not expected to saturate even for the largest run-ups, nor to suffer from near-coast tsunami damages. Tiltmeters and broadband seismometers are thus valuable instruments for monitoring tsunamis in complement with tide gauge arrays.

Description: Tidal gravity observations can be used to validate theoretical estimation for inelastic response of the Earth and its latitude dependence using gravimetric factors. We used superconducting gravimeter (SG) data at five sites (METSÄHOVI, STRASBOURG, SUTHERLAND, CANBERRA and SYOWA) to validate theoretical estimation based on an existing method. For the correction of ocean loading effect, we tested eight global ocean tide models, four OLD (CSR4.0, GOT99.2b, NAO.99b and FES2004) and four NEW (TPXO7-atlas, EOT11a, DTU10 and HAMTIDE11a) were tested. We selected an optimal ocean tide model based on the criterion of the smallest misfit for the three main waves (O1, K1 and M2) at each station, as determined by the residual between the observed loading effect and the modelled ocean loading effect. Large discrepancies among the results of ocean tide models remained at METSÄHOVI and SYOWA; however, the correction of the ocean loading effect using NEW ocean tide models exhibited consistency with body tide theoretical values of inelasticity. Regarding the validation of elasticity/inelasticity, the properties at all stations approached the inelastic theoretical value for K1. It was difficult to clarify the latitude dependence of tidal response, because of still inaccurate ocean loading correction at SYOWA and SUTHERLAND. In summary, revision of the calibration factor at METSÄHOVI reduced the real (in-phase) component of the final residual; however, a more accurate calibration factor is still needed. Data from STRASBOURG showed consistency with theoretical values for inelasticity including OLD and NEW ocean tide models. Results from SUTHERLAND gave a larger gravimetric factor, even using the NEW optimal ocean tide model, and the data at CANBERRA supported OLD ocean tide model. The NEW ocean tide models TPXO7-atlas and DTU10 reduced the residual in both the in-phase and out-phase components for O1, K1 and M2 as compared with FES2004, but relatively large residuals still remained in both components for K1 at SUTHERLAND, in the in-phase component for M2 at CANBERRA and in the out-phase component for M2 at SYOWA. These residuals mean that there is a room for improvement in the estimation of ocean loading effect and/or the determination of calibration factors at these sites.

Description: Based on studies of continuous waveform data recorded on broad-band seismograph stations in Africa, Europe and North America, we report evidences for two temporally persistent and spatially localized monochromatic vibrating sources (around 0.036 and 0.038 Hz, respectively) in the Gulf of Guinea, instead of just one source (0.038 Hz or 26 s) found 50 yr ago. The location of the 0.036 Hz source is close to the Sao Tome Volcano, therefore it may be related to volcano processes. However, the 0.038 Hz source cannot be explained with known mechanisms, such as tectonic or oceanic processes. The most likely mechanism is volcano processes, but there is no reported active volcano in source region. Such repetitive vibration sources may provide valuable tools for detecting temporal variation of crustal structure of the Earth.

Description: We propose a direct estimation of dampings in surface layers based on the normalized energy density (NED). The ratio of the NED, defined as the NED for the uppermost layer divided by the NED for the basement, correlates well with the total damping, $t_S^*$ . We apply the relation between the NED ratio and the total damping to estimate the total damping at an actual site, Katagihara (KTG) site in Japan. The total damping at the KTG site is directly estimated as $t_S^*=0.038$ . This value agrees well with the estimated values determined from a conventional method, incorporating the non-linear inversion scheme.