ALBERT

Description: [1]  Precipitation extremes are expected to increase in a warming climate, thus it is essential to characterise their potential future changes. Here we evaluate eight high-resolution Global Climate Model simulations in the twentieth century and provide new evidence on projected global precipitation extremes for the 21 st century. A significant intensification of daily extremes for all seasons is projected for the mid and high latitudes of both hemispheres at the end of the present century. For the subtropics and tropics, the lack of reliable and consistent estimations found for both the historical and future simulations might be connected with model deficiencies in the representation of organised convective systems. Low inter-model variability and good agreement with high-resolution regional observations are found for the twentieth century winter over the Northern Hemisphere mid and high latitudes.

Description: [1]  Repeated observations at the subpolar front west of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge show a link between the position of the North Atlantic Current (NAC), and the spatial distribution of finescale variance, diapycnal diffusivity, and integrated energy dissipation. Observational data were collected during three cruises. A single branch of the NAC was found in 2008, approximately at 50 ∘ 30Õ N, and two branches were observed in 2010 and 2011, with alternating intensities. Shear variance was elevatedbelow the core of the NAC in all cases, resulting in an average diapycnal diffusivity that is higher by a factor of 3 compared to the averages north and south of the NAC. The integrated energy dissipation has maxima at or south of the fronts; background dissipation is highest during 2008, also the year with the highest surface eddy kinetic energy.

Description: [1]  The tropospheric response to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) is analyzed in an idealized model setup regarding the respective roles of planetary-scale and synoptic-scale waves. The control model run includes a full interactive wave spectrum, while a second run includes interactive planetary-scale waves but only the time-mean synoptic-scale wave forcing from the control run. In both runs the tropospheric response is characterized by the negative phase of the respective tropospheric annular mode. But given their different latitudinal structure, the control run shows the expected response, i.e. an equatorward shift of the tropospheric jet, whereas the response in the absence of interactive synoptic eddies is characterized by a poleward jet shift. This opposite jet shift is associated with a different planetary wave variability that couples with the zonal flow between the stratosphere and the surface. These results indicate that the synoptic eddy feedback is necessary for the observed tropospheric response to SSWs.

Description: [1]  Large explosive volcanic eruptions can generate ash clouds from rising plumes that spread in the atmosphere around a Neutral Buoyancy Level (NBL). These ash clouds spread as inertial intrusions and are advected by atmospheric winds. For low mass flow rates, tephra transport is mainly dictated by wind advection, because ash cloud spreading due to gravity current effects is negligible (passive transport). For large mass flow rates, gravity driven transport at the NBL can be the dominant transport mechanism. Conditions under which the passive transport assumption is valid have not yet been critically studied. We analyze the conditions when gravity-driven transport is dominant in terms of the cloud Richardson number. Moreover, we couple an analytical model that describes cloud spreading as a gravity current with an advection–diffusion model. This coupled model is used to simulate the evolution of the volcanic cloud during the climatic phase of the 1991 Pinatubo eruption.

Description: [1]  Regimes of tropical low-level clouds are commonly identified according to large-scale subsidence and lower tropospheric stability (LTS). This definition alone is insufficient for the distinction between regimes and limits the comparison of low-level clouds from CloudSat radar observations and the ECHAM5 GCM run with the COSP radar simulator. Comparisons of CloudSat radar cloud altitude-reflectivity histograms for stratocumulus and shallow cumulus regimes, as defined above, show nearly identical reflectivity profiles because the distinction between the two regimes is dependent upon atmospheric stability below 700 hPa and observations above 1.5 km. Regional subsets, near California and Hawaii for example, have large differences in reflectivityprofiles than the dynamically defined domain; indicating different reflectivity profiles exist under a given large-scale environment. Regional subsets are better for the evaluation of low-level clouds in CloudSat and ECHAM5 as there is less contamination between 2.5 km to 7.5 km from precipitating hydrometeors which obscured cloud reflectivities.

Description: [1]  Deep moist atmospheric convection is a key element of the weather and climate system for transporting mass, momentum, and thermal energy. It has been challenging to simulate convection realistically in global atmospheric models, because of the large gap in spatial scales between convection (10 0  km) and global motions (10 4  km). We conducted the first ever sub-kilometer global simulation and described the features of convection. Through a series of grid-refinement resolution testing, we found that an essential change for convection statistics occurred around 2-km grid spacing. The convection structure, number of convective cells, and distance to the nearest convective cell dramatically changed at this resolution. The convection core was resolved using multiple grids in simulations with grid spacings less than 2.0 km.

Description: [1]  Dry conditions from a moderate El Nino during the fall of 2006 resulted in enhanced burning in Indonesia with fire emissions of CO approximately 4–6 times larger than the prior year. Here we use new tropospheric methane and CO data from the Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) and new CO profile measurements from the Terra Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) satellite instruments with the GEOS-Chem model to estimate methane emissions of 4.25 +/− 0.75 Tg for October-November 2006 from these fires. Errors in convective parameterization in GEOS-Chem, evaluated by comparing MOPITT and GEOS-Chem CO profiles, are the primary uncertainty of the emissions estimate. The El Nino related Indonesian fires increased the tropical distribution of atmospheric methane relative to 2005, indicating that tropical biomass burning can compensate for expected decreases in tropical wetland methane emissions from reduced rainfall during El Nino as found in previous studies.

Description: [1]  In this study, we investigate the formation predictability of Hurricane Sandy (2012) with a global mesoscale model. We first present five track and intensity forecasts of Sandy initialized at 00Z October 22-26, 2012, realistically producing its movement with a northwestward turn prior to its landfall. We then show that three experiments initialized at 00Z Oct. 16-18 captured the genesis of Sandy with a lead time of up to six days and simulated reasonable evolution of Sandy's track and intensity in the next two-day period of 18Z Oct. 21-23. Results suggest that the extended lead time of formation prediction is achieved by realistic simulations of multi-scale processes, including (1) the interaction between an easterly wave and a low-level westerly wind belt (WWB); (2) the appearance of the upper-level trough at 200-hPa to Sandy's northwest. The low-level WWB and upper-level trough are likely associated with a Madden-Julian Oscillation.

Description: [1]  Water vapor is an important greenhouse gas in the earth's atmosphere. Absorption of the solar radiation by water vapor in the near UV region may partially account for the up to 30% discrepancy between the modeled and the observed solar energy absorbed by the atmosphere. But the magnitude of water vapor absorption in the near UV region at wavelengths shorter than 384 nm is not known. We have determined absorption cross sections of water vapor at 5 nm intervals in the 290-350 nm region, by using cavity ring-down spectroscopy. Water vapor cross section values range from 2.94 × 10 -24 to 2.13 × 10 -25  cm 2 /molecule in the wavelength region studied. The effect of the water vapor absorption in the 290-350 nm region on the modeledradiation flux at the ground level has been evaluated using radiative transfer model.

Description: [1]  The RAPID-MOCHA array has observed the Atlantic Meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) at 26.5°N since 2004. During 2009/2010, there was a transient 30% weakening of the AMOC driven by anomalies in geostrophic and Ekman transports. Here, we use simulations based on the Met Office Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) to diagnose the relative importance of atmospheric forcings and internal ocean dynamics in driving the anomalous geostrophic circulation of 2009/10. Data assimilating experiments with FOAM accurately reproduce the mean strength and depth of the AMOC at 26.5°N. In addition, agreement between simulated and observed stream functions in the deep ocean is improved when we calculate the AMOC using a method that approximates the RAPID observations. The main features of the geostrophic circulation anomaly are captured by an ensemble of simulations without data-assimilation. These model results suggest that the atmosphere played a dominant role in driving recent interannual variability of the AMOC.

Description: [1]  Understanding and explaining the trend in GMSL has important implications for future projections of sea level rise. While measurements from satellite altimetry have provided accurate estimates of GMSL, the modern altimetry record has only now reached twenty years in length, making it difficult to assess the contribution of decadal to multi-decadal climate signals to the global trend. Here, we use a sea level reconstruction to study the twenty-year trends in sea level since 1950. In particular, we show that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) contributes significantly to the twenty-year trends in GMSL. We estimate the PDO contribution to the GMSL trend over the past twenty years to be approximately 0.49 ± 0.25 mm/year, and find that removing the PDO contribution reduces the acceleration in GMSL estimated over the past sixty years.

Description: [1]  This study examines links between the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) and the occurrence of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) at both inter-annual and decadal scales. The major findings are summarized as follows: (1) NPGO makes significant impacts on the WNP TC frequency at both inter-annual and decadal time scales. The impacts of NPGO on the TC activity are more profound than those exerted by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. (2) Niño 3 plays a more important role than Niño 3.4 and Niño 4 in modulating the decadal WNP TC activity. (3) Positive low-level relative vorticity and weak zonal vertical wind shear are responsible for the increase in the WNP TC activity in negative NPGO phases. This study indicates that the NPGO and Niño 3 indices should be key factors for building a scheme for decadal prediction of occurrences of WNP TCs.

Description: [1]  Inter-plate coupling on the Hikurangi subduction margin along the east coast of New Zealand's North Island changes north to south from almost uncoupled to locked. Clay-rich sediments and aqueous-fluids at the subduction interface have been invoked as key factors in the frictional processes that control inter-plate coupling. Here we use magnetotelluric (MT) data to show that the subduction interface in the weakly coupled region is electrically conductive, but is resistive in the locked region. These results indicate the presence of a layer of fluid- and clay-rich sediments in the weakly coupled region and support the idea that the presence of fluid and hydrated clays at the interface is a major factor controlling plate coupling.

Description: [1]  We report a new type of variations in Doppler velocity of HF ground scatter echoes from the polar cap at f ~10 mHz. Similar fluctuations from lower latitudes are usually associated with large-scale dayside Pc3-4 ULF waves. However, the polar cap oscillations exhibit a puzzling anisotropy in spatial coherence along and across the radar's line-of-sight. Furthermore, in contrast to Pc3-4 waves, these fluctuations show no ground magnetic signatures and display a pronounced gap in power/occurrence around local noon. We hypothesize that localized, ≤100 km, auroral particle precipitations near the radar site can modulate Doppler shift of the radio waves entering the ionosphere. In the ground scatter returns, due to the geometrical spread of the rays propagating through the ionosphere to the ground, these variations would appear to have a much larger line-of-sight scale.

Description: [1]  In this study we present 3D data assimilation using CRRES data and 3D Versatile Electron Radiation Belt Model using a newly developed operator-splitting method. Simulations with synthetic data show that the operator-splitting Kalman filtering technique proposed in this study can successfully reconstruct the underlying dynamic evolution of the radiation belts. The method is further verified by the comparison with the conventional Kalman filter. We applied the new approach to 3D data assimilation of real data, to globally reconstruct the dynamics of the radiation belts using pitch-angle, energy, and L-shell dependent CRRES observations. An L-shell time cross-sections of the global data assimilation results for nearly equatorially mirroring particles and high and low values of the first adiabatic invariants clearly show the difference between the radial profiles of phase space density. At μ  = 700 MeV/G cross-section of the global reanalysis shows a clear peak in the phase space density, while at lower energy of 70 MeV/G the profiles are monotonic. Since the radial profiles are obtained from one global reanalysis, the differences in the profiles reflect the differences in the underlying physical processes responsible for the dynamic evolution of the radiation belt energetic and relativistic electrons.

Description: At present continental to global scale flood forecasting predicts at a point discharge, with little attention to detail and accuracy of local scale inundation predictions. Yet, inundation variables are of interest and all flood impacts are inherently local in nature. This paper proposes a large scale flood inundation ensemble forecasting model that uses best available data and modeling approaches in data scarce areas. The model was built for the Lower Zambezi River to demonstrate current flood inundation forecasting capabilities in large data-scarce regions. ECMWF ensemble forecast (ENS) data were used to force the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) hydrological model, which simulated and routed daily flows to the input boundary locations of a 2-D hydrodynamic model. Efficient hydrodynamic modeling over large areas still requires model grid resolutions that are typically larger than the width of channels that play a key a role in flood wave propagation. We therefore employed a novel sub-grid channel scheme to describe the river network in detail whilst representing the floodplain at an appropriate scale. The modeling system was calibrated using channel water levels from satellite laser altimetry and then applied to predict the February 2007 Mozambique floods. Model evaluation showed that simulated flood edge cells were within a distance of between one and two model resolutions compared to an observed flood edge and inundation area agreement was on average 86%. Our study highlights that physically plausible parameter values and satisfactory performance can be achieved at spatial scales ranging from tens to several hundreds of thousands of km 2 and at model grid resolutions up to several km 2 .

Description: A class of capillary flows in unsaturated porous media is characterized by quasi-steady viscous flow confined behind curved air-water interfaces and within liquid bodies held by capillary forces along crevices and grain contacts. The geometry of the connected capillary liquid network within the pore space resembles channels that form between adjacent bubbles in foam (Plateau borders) with solid grains representing gas bubbles in foam. For simplified channel geometry we combine expressions for viscous flow with continuity considerations to describe the evolution of the channels cross-sectional area during gravity drainage. This formulation enables modeling of unsaturated flow without invoking the Richards equation and associated hydraulic functions. We adapt a formalism originally developed for foam “free drainage” (drainage under gravity) or “forced drainage” (infiltration front motion) to a class of unsaturated flows in porous media that require a few input parameters only (mean channel corner angle, air entry value and porosity) for certain initial and boundary conditions. We demonstrate that the reduction in capillary channel cross section yields a consistent description of self-regulating internal fluxes towards attainment of the so-called “field capacity” in soil and provides an alternative method for interpretation of outflow experiments for prescribed pressure boundary conditions. Additionally, the geometrically-explicit formulation provides a more intuitive picture of capillary flows across textural boundaries (changes in channel cross-section and number of channels). The foam drainage methodology expands the range of tools available for analyses of unsaturated flow processes and offers more realistic links between liquid configuration and flow dynamics in unsaturated porous media.

Description: Synthetic streamflows at different sites in a river basin are needed for planning, operation and management of water resources projects. Modeling the temporal and spatial dependence structure of monthly streamflow at different sites is generally required. In this study, the maximum entropy copula method is proposed for multisite monthly streamflow simulation, in which the temporal and spatial dependence structure is imposed as constraints to derive the maximum entropy copula. The monthly streamflows at different sites are then generated by sampling from the conditional distribution. A case study for the generation of monthly streamflow at three sites in the Colorado River basin illustrates the application of the proposed method. Simulated streamflow from the maximum entropy copula is in satisfactory agreement with observed streamflow.

Description: The Krycklan Catchment Study (KCS) provides a unique field infrastructure for hillslope to landscape-scale research on short and long-term ecosystem dynamics in boreal landscapes. The site is designed for process-based research assessing the role of external drivers including forest management, climate change, and long-range pollutant transport on forests, mires, soils, streams, lakes and groundwater. The over-arching objectives of KCS are to (1) provide a state-of-the-art infrastructure for experimental and hypothesis driven research, (2) maintain a collection of high quality, long-term climatic, biogeochemical, hydrological and environmental data, and (3) support the development of models and guidelines for research, policy and management.

Description: 3-D Hydraulic Tomography (3-D HT) is a method for aquifer characterization whereby the 3-D spatial distribution of aquifer flow parameters (primarily hydraulic conductivity, K) is estimated by joint inversion of head change data from multiple partially-penetrating pumping tests. While performance of 3-D HT has been studied extensively in numerical experiments, few field studies have demonstrated the real-world performance of 3-D HT. Here we report on a 3-D transient hydraulic tomography (3-D THT) field experiment at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site which is different from prior approaches in that it represents a “baseline” analysis of 3-D THT performance using only a single arrangement of a central pumping well and 5 observation wells with nearly complete pumping and observation coverage at 1m intervals. We jointly analyze all pumping tests using a geostatistical approach based on the quasi-linear estimator of kitanidis [1995]. We reanalyze the system after progressively removing pumping and/or observation intervals; significant progressive loss of information about heterogeneity is quantified as reduced variance of the K field overall, reduced correlation with slug test K estimates at wells, and reduced ability to accurately predict independent pumping tests. We verify that imaging accuracy is strongly improved by pumping and observational densities comparable to the aquifer heterogeneity geostatistical correlation lengths. Discrepancies between K profiles at wells, as obtained from HT and slug tests, are greatest at the tops and bottoms of wells where HT observation coverage was lacking.

Description: [1]  This study evaluates the potential of a proposed technique in using satellite-borne radiometer measurements and weather analyses to estimate the intensity of tropical cyclones. This theory shows that intensity is essentially directly related to the temperature deficit of cloud-top versus sea-surface, and the surplus in saturation entropy in the eyewall versus its surroundings. The eyewall entropy estimate comes from measurements of cloud-top temperature and pressure, and the analysis provides the environmental saturation entropy. An Observing Systems Simulation Experiment (OSSE) was conducted and the results were compared to those from previous studies using cloud-profiling radar altimetry measurements. The use of cloud-top pressure measurements may produce more accurate results. Inherent challenges still require caution in considering operational implementation.

Description: [1]  Structural evolution of monsoon clouds in the core monsoon region of India has been examined using multi-sensor data. Invigoration of warm clouds above 4.5 km (occurring in only 15.4% days of the last 11 monsoon seasons) is associated with a transition from negative to positive normalized rainfall anomaly. Cloud top pressure reduces with an increase in aerosol optical depth at a higher rate of invigoration in drier condition (characterized by large fraction of absorbing aerosols) than wet condition. Cloud effective radius for warm clouds does not show any significant change with an increase in aerosol concentration in presence of high liquid water path, probably due to strong buffering role of meteorology. The structural evolution of monsoon clouds is influenced by both dynamic and microphysical processes that prolong the cloud lifetime, resulting in infrequent rainfall. Our results call for improved representation of aerosol and cloud vertical structures in the climate models to resolve this issue.

Description: Probabilistic estimates of future water levels and river discharge are usually simulated with hydrologic models using ensemble weather forecasts as main inputs. As hydrologic models are imperfect and the meteorological ensembles tend to be biased and underdispersed, the ensemble forecasts for river runoff typically are biased and underdispersed, too. Thus, in order to achieve both reliable and sharp predictions statistical post-processing is required. In this work Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is applied to statistically post-process ensemble runoff raw forecasts for a catchment in Switzerland, at lead-times ranging from 1 to 240 hours. The raw forecasts have been obtained using deterministic and ensemble forcing meteorological models with different forecast lead-time ranges. First, BMA is applied based on mixtures of univariate normal distributions, subject to the assumption of independence between distinct lead-times. Then, the independence assumption is relaxed in order to estimate multivariate runoff forecasts over the entire range of lead-times simultaneously, based on a BMA version that uses multivariate normal distributions. Since river runoff is a highly skewed variable, Box-Cox transformations are applied in order to achieve approximate normality. Both univariate and multivariate BMA approaches are able to generate well calibrated probabilistic forecasts that are considerably sharper than climatological forecasts. Additionally, multivariate BMA provides a promising approach for incorporating temporal dependencies into the post-processed forecasts. Its major advantage against univariate BMA is an increase in reliability when the forecast system is changing due to model availability.

Description: We derive a series solution for the nonlinear Boussinesq equation in terms of the similarity variable of the Boltzmann transformation in a semi-infinite domain. The first few coefficients of the series have been known for a long time, having been obtained by a truncated inversion of the series solution of the Blasius equation, but no direct recurrence relation was known for the complete series representing the solution of the Boussinesq equation. The series turns out to have a finite radius of convergence, which we estimate with a numerical complex-plane integration method that identifies the singularities of the solution when the equation is extended to the complex plane. The homogeneous condition at the origin produces a singularity which complicates numerical solutions with Runge-Kutta methods. We present two variable transformations that circumvent the problem and that are best suited to the complex-variable and the real-variable versions of the equation, respectively. Using those tools, an approximate solution accurate to 1.75 × 10 -10 and valid for the entire positive real axis is then developed by matching a Padé approximant of the exact series and an asymptotic solution (to overcome the restriction imposed by the finite radius of convergence of the series), along the same lines of the expression proposed by Hogarth and Parlange [1999]. The accuracies of all of the existing and the newly proposed solutions are obtained.

Description: Field sampling in unwadeable and flashy flood events encounters the problem that lateral variability of flow hydraulics and sediment transport cannot be captured adequately, and there is also an accuracy problem because parameters change while being measured. Moreover, event based gravel-sand mixed transport data in rapidly changing conditions are largely missing, in particular for gravel-bed rivers in small catchments. In this study, field measurements of bed load, suspended load, flow velocities, water depths and cross section geometry were collected during flood events at a monitoring station near the mouth of the Versilia river, Italy. Since the observed hydrographs are characterized by short durations, to the order of a few hours, an analysis of the lateral and temporal flow variability was carried out to enable the design of a sampling strategy and to minimize the errors created by the time variations of discharge associated with unsteady flow conditions. The measurements were interpreted using a 1D hydro-morphodynamic numerical model simulating the dynamics of flow and sediment discharges during a flood event for a given return period. The flow and sediment rating curves were then developed through an integrated approach combining different methodologies: field measurements, laboratory analyses and mathematical modeling. The developed approach allows one to capture the main physical mechanisms associated to the transport of sand–gravel mixtures, such as selective transport, and the hysteretic behaviour of sediment transport produced by rapid and intense flood events.

Description: [1]  An increased frequency and intensity of winter and spring storms have recently manifested over a broad area of North America—along the east coast of the U.S. especially, though global mean storm tracks are suggested to shift northward. To understand these changes, we have conducted atmospheric model experiments, examining the response of North American storm activity to the elevated tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) associated with El Niño. The results indicate that, when tropical Pacific SST increases, there are more numerous intense storms over southwestern, southeastern, and northwestern North America, but fewer weaker storms over the northeast. Transient eddy analysis of the general circulation demonstrates consistent changes, suggesting systematic changes from large-scale general circulation to synoptic-scale storms. These changes can be attributed to enhanced lower tropospheric baroclinicity, to which the southward shift and an intensification of extratropical jet streams make a major contribution.

Description: [1]  Methane is a potent greenhouse gas and large-scale rapid release of methane from hydrate may have contributed to past abrupt climate change inferred from the geological record. The discovery in 2008 of over 250 plumes of methane gas escaping from the seabed of the West Svalbard continental margin at ~400 m water depth (mwd), suggests that hydrate is dissociating in the present-day Arctic. Here, we model the dynamic response of hydrate-bearing sediments over a period of 2300 yr and investigate ocean warming as a possible cause for present-day and likely future dissociation of hydrate, within 350-800 mwd, west of Svalbard. Future temperatures are given by two climate models, HadGEM2 and CCSM4, and scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 2.6. Our results suggest that over the next three centuries 5.3-29 Gg yr -1 of methane may be released to the Arctic Ocean on the West Svalbard margin.

Description: [1]  In recent years it has been discovered that sections of the subduction interface slip aseismically in slow slip events, during which stress is intermittently transferred to the section of the subduction zone that generates large or great earthquakes. Within the Cascadia subduction zone the magnitude and frequency of SSEs and accompanying tectonic tremor exhibit complex patterns that vary systematically with depth. However the loading mechanisms and interactions that precede great subduction earthquakes are poorly understood. Here we present results from physics-based simulations that reproduce the continuum of SSE characteristics reported for the Cascadia subduction zone. The simulations provide a basis for understanding the interactions that control both the observed complex patterns of SSEs and stress transfer to the seismogenic section that produce great earthquakes.

Description: [1]  Clouds over the Southern Ocean exist in a pristine environment that results in unique microphysical properties. However, in-situ observations of these clouds are rare, and the dominant precipitation processes are unknown. Uncertainties in their life cycles and radiative properties make them interesting from a weather and climate perspective. Data from the standard cloud physics payload during the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) global transects provide a unique snapshot the nature of low-level clouds in the Southern Ocean. High quantities of supercooled liquid water (up to 0.47gm –3 ) were observed in clouds as cold as –22 °C during two flights in different seasons and different meteorological conditions, supporting climatologies inferred from satellite observations. Cloud droplet concentrations were calculated from mean droplet size and liquid water concentrations, and were in the range of 30–120 cm –3 , which is fairly typical for the pristine Southern Ocean environment. Ice in non- or lightly-precipitating clouds was found to be rare, while drizzle drops with diameter greater than 100  μ m formed through warm rain processes were widespread. Large, pristine crystals were commonly seen in very low concentrations below cloud base.

Description: [1]  The India-Eurasia collision is responsible for producing the Himalayan Mountains and Tibetan plateau and has been hypothesized to have significant far field influences, including driving the Baikal rift and the eastward extrusion of South China. However, quantification of lithospheric buoyancy forces and integrated effect of tractions acting at base of the lithosphere are unable to explain the observed surface motions within South China. We present 198 new SKS shear-wave splitting observations beneath South China and invert these data along with published GPS data to solve for the sub-asthenospheric flow field beneath South China to assess the role of small-scale convection here. We find a 15-20 mm/yr southwestward-directed mantle flow towards the Burma slab. This flow is consistent with the mantle response of slab retreat over the past 25ma, and counter flow due to subduction of Burma/Sunda slabs demonstrating the importance of localized mantle convection on present day plate motions.

Description: ABSTRACT A study was performed to characterize over land precipitation associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) for basins around the world based upon the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS). From 1998 to 2009, data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) product 3B42, showed that TCs accounted for 5.5%, 7.5%, 6%, 9.5%, and 8.9% of the annual precipitation for impacted over land areas of the Americas, East Asia, South and West Asia, Oceania, and East Africa respectively, and that TC contribution decreased significantly within the first 150-km from the coast. Locally, TCs contributed on average to more than 25% and up to 61% of the annual precipitation budget over very different climatic areas with arid or tropical characteristics. East Asia represented the higher and most constant TC rain (118±19% mm y -1 ) normalized over the area impacted, while East Africa presented the highest variability (108±60% mm y -1 ), and the Americas displayed the lowest average TC rain (65±24% mm y -1 ) despite a higher TC activity. Furthermore, the maximum monthly TC contribution (8-11%) was found later in the TC season and depended on the peak of TC activity, TC rainfall, and the domain transition between dry and wet regimes if any. Finally, because of their importance in terms of rainfall amount, the contribution of TCs was provided for a selection of 50 urban areas experiencing cyclonic activity. Results showed that for particularly intense years, urban areas prone to cyclonic activity received more than half of their annual rainfall from TCs.

Description: A multivariate, multi-site daily weather generator is presented for use in decision-centric vulnerability assessments under climate change. The tool is envisioned useful for a wide range of socioeconomic and biophysical systems sensitive to different aspects of climate variability and change. The proposed stochastic model has several components, including 1) a wavelet decomposition coupled to an autoregressive model to account for structured, low-frequency climate oscillations, 2) a Markov Chain and k-nearest-neighbor (KNN) resampling scheme to simulate spatially-distributed, multivariate weather variables over a region, and 3) a quantile mapping procedure to enforce long-term distributional shifts in weather variables that result from prescribed climate changes. The Markov Chain is used to better represent wet and dry spell statistics while the KNN bootstrap resampler preserves the covariance structure between the weather variables and across space. The wavelet-based autoregressive model is applied to annual climate over the region and used to modulate the Markov Chain and KNN resampling, embedding appropriate low-frequency structure within the daily weather generation process. Parameters can be altered in any of the components of the proposed model to enable the generation of realistic time series of climate variables that exhibit changes to both lower-order and higher-order statistics at long-term (inter-annual), mid-term (seasonal), and short-term (daily) timescales. The tool can be coupled with impact models in a bottom-up risk assessment to efficiently and exhaustively explore the potential climate changes under which a system is most vulnerable. An application of the weather generator is presented for the Connecticut River basin to demonstrate the tool's ability to generate a wide range of possible climate sequences over an extensive spatial domain.

Description: The objective of the least cost design problem of a water distribution system is to find its minimum cost with discrete diameters as decision variables and hydraulic controls as constraints. The goal of a robust least cost design is to find solutions which guarantee its feasibility independent of the data (i.e., under model uncertainty). A robust counterpart approach for linear uncertain problems is adopted in this study, which represents the uncertain stochastic problem as its deterministic equivalent. Robustness is controlled by a single parameter providing a trade-off between the probability of constraint violation and the objective cost. Two principal models are developed-uncorrelated uncertainty model with implicit design reliability, and correlated uncertainty model with explicit design reliability. The models are tested on three example applications and compared for uncertainty in consumers’ demands. The main contribution of this study is the inclusion of the ability to explicitly account for different correlations between water distribution systems demand nodes. In particular it is shown that including correlation information in the design phase has a substantial advantage in seeking more efficient robust solutions.

Description: Moving from univariate to multivariate frequency analysis, this study extends the Klemeš' critique of the widespread belief that the increasingly refined mathematical structures of probability functions increase the accuracy and credibility of the extrapolated upper tails of the fitted distribution models. In particular, we discuss key aspects of multivariate frequency analysis applied to hydrological data such as the selection of multivariate design events (i.e., appropriate subsets or scenarios of multiplets that exhibit the same joint probability to be used in design applications) and the assessment of the corresponding uncertainty. Since these problems are often overlooked or treated separately, and sometimes confused, we attempt to clarify properties, advantages, shortcomings and reliability of results of frequency analysis. We suggest a selection method of multivariate design events with prescribed joint probability based on simple Monte Carlo simulations that accounts for the uncertainty affecting the inference results and the multivariate extreme quantiles. It is also shown that the exploration of the p -level probability regions of a joint distribution returns a set of events that is a subset of the p -level scenarios resulting from an appropriate assessment of the sampling uncertainty, thus tending to overlook more extreme and potentially dangerous events with the same (uncertain) joint probability. Moreover, a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty of multivariate quantiles is provided by introducing the concept of joint confidence intervals. From an operational point of view, the simulated event sets describing the distribution of the multivariate p -level quantiles can be used to perform multivariate risk analysis under sampling uncertainty. As an example of the practical implications of this study, we analyse two case studies already presented in the literature.

Description: [1]  Rotational along with translational and strain measurements are essential for a complete description of the motion of a deformable body in a seismic event. We propose a new seismogeodetic approach where collocated high-rate GPS and accelerometer measurements are combined to estimate permanent and dynamic coseismic ground tilts at a point, whereas at present only dynamic tilts are measured with either a dense seismic array or an expensive ring laser gyroscope. We estimate point tilts for a five-story structure on a shake table subjected to 13 earthquake strong-motion records of increasing intensity. For the most intense record from the 2002 M7.9 Denali earthquake, we observe a peak-to-peak dynamic tilt of 0.12°, and a permanent tilt of 0.16° for the structure's roof. Point tilts derived from networks of collocated GPS and accelerometers can be used to estimate the rotational component of seismic wavefield for improved earthquake source characterization.

Description: [1]  Following the recent discovery of the “Modoki” El Niño, a proliferation of studies and debates has ensued concerning whether Modoki is dynamically distinct from “Canonical” El Niño, how Modoki impacts and teleconnections differ, and whether Modoki events have been increasing in frequency or amplitude. Three decades of reliable, high temporal–resolution observations of coupled ocean–atmosphere variability in the equatorial Pacific reveal a rich diversity of El Niños. Although central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies appear mechanistically separable in terms of local and remote forcing, their frequent overlap precludes robust classifications. All observed El Niños appear to be a mixture of locally (central Pacific) and remotely forced (eastern Pacific) SST anomalies. Submonthly resolution appears essential for this insight and for the proper dynamical diagnosis of El Niño evolution, thus the use of long–term monthly reconstructions for classification and trend analysis is strongly cautioned against.

Description: [1]  Sea surface salinity (SSS) measurements from the Aquarius/SAC-D satellite and SMOS mission were used to document the freshening associated with the record 2011 Mississippi River flooding event in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). Assessment of the salinity response was aided by additional satellite observations, including MODIS chlorophyll-a (chl-a) and ocean surface currents, and a passive tracer simulation. Low SSS values associated with the spreading of the river plume were observed 1–3 months after peak river discharge which then receded and became unidentifiable from satellite observations 5 months after maximum discharge. The seasonal wind pattern and general circulation of the GoM dramatically impacted the observed salinity response, transporting freshwater eastward along the Gulf coast and entraining low salinity waters into the open GoM. The observed salinity response from Aquarius was consistent with SMOS SSS, chl-a concentrations, and the passive tracer simulation in terms of the pathway and transit time of the river plume spreading. This study is the first successful application of satellite SSS to study salinity variation in marginal seas.

Description: [1]  This study uses a simulation method to explore how estuarine pH is affected by mixing between river water, anthropogenic CO 2 enriched seawater, and by respiration. Three rivers with different levels of weathering products (Amazon, Mississippi, and St. Johns) are selected for this simulation. The results indicate that estuaries that receive low to moderate levels of weathering products (Amazon and St. Johns) exhibit a maximum pH decrease in the mid-salinity region as a result of anthropogenic CO 2 intrusion. This maximum pH decrease coincides with a previously unrecognized mid-salinity minimum buffer zone (MBZ). In addition, water column oxygen consumption can further depress pH for all simulated estuaries. We suggest that recognition of the estuarine MBZs may be important for studying estuarine calcifying organisms and pH-sensitive biogeochemical processes.

Description: [1]  A simple wavy magnetodisk model can explain periodicities in energetic charged particles observed in Saturn's outer magnetosphere (〉20 R S ). The model's free parameters are the tilt of magnetodisk in inner magnetosphere (~1.8°), speed of outgoing spiral wave (~8 R S /hr), critical radius (~10 R S ), and period of rotation (10.64 hours). The fidelity of the model is not judged by a least squares fit to the actual data, but rather by the model's accuracy in reproducing the Lomb periodogram of the periodicities. The model accurately simulates the main spectral feature near ~10.7 hours plus a secondary (“dual”) period near ~10.95 hours. The ability of the wavy magnetodisk with one period to produce the observed dual periodicity in the observations suggests that models having “dual” periods need not be invoked to explain some of the periodicities in Saturn's outer magnetosphere.

Description: [1]  The fluid-filled crack model has been widely used to interpret the peak frequencies of long-period (LP) seismic events at volcanoes. Up to now, numerical methods have been used to compute resonant frequencies in the model. We propose a simple analytical formula for the longitudinal resonance frequencies of a fluid-filled crack. We evaluated the formula by comparing its results with the resonant frequencies computed by finite difference method (FDM) code. The comparison revealed that the formula well describes the resonant frequencies of both 2D and 3D cracks. The formula enables simple and rapid estimates of the fluid properties and geometries of LP source cracks.

Description: [1]  We determined the compressional velocity of hcp-Fe using high resolution inelastic X-ray scattering (IXS) combined with in-situ X-ray powder diffraction (XRD): our measurements extend up to 174 GPa at room temperature, to 88 GPa at 700 K, and to 61.5 GPa at 1000 K. Our data, including those obtained at high temperature, are well described by a linear relation to density, extending the range of verification of Birch's law, and suggesting only small temperature dependence up to 1000 K. This result, once compared to the PREM seismologically based model, indicates that there is either a strong temperature effect on Birch's law above 1000 K, or that the composition of the core is rather different than expected, containing, e.g. heavy impurities. Noting that both recent theoretical calculations and shock-wave velocity measurements are consistent with modification of Birch's law at high temperature, we favor the former explanation.

Description: Sparse geologic dictionaries provide a novel approach for subsurface flow model representation and calibration. Learning sparse dictionaries from prior training datasets is an effective approach to describe complex geologic connectivity patterns in subsurface imaging applications. However, the computational cost of sparse learning algorithms becomes prohibitive for large models. Performing the sparse dictionary learning process on smaller image patches (segments) provides a simple approach to address this problem in image processing applications. However, in underdetermined subsurface flow model calibration inverse problems, reconstruction of a segmented image can introduce significant structural distortion and discontinuity at the boundaries of the segments. This paper proposes an alternative sparse learning approach where the sparse dictionaries are learned from low-rank representations of the large-scale training dataset in spectral domains (e.g., frequency domain). The objective is to develop a computationally efficient dictionary learning approach that emphasizes large-scale spatial connectivity patterns. This is achieved by removing the strong spatial correlations in the training data, thereby eliminating a large number of insignificant components from the sparse learning computation. In addition to improving the computational complexity, sparse learning from low-rank training datasets suppresses the small-scale details from entering the reconstruction of large-scale connectivity patterns, and providing a regularization effect in solving the resulting ill-posed inverse problems. We apply the proposed approach to travel-time tomography inversion and nonlinear subsurface flow model calibration inverse problems to demonstrate its effectiveness and practicality.

Description: [1]  Using a traceable framework of idealised GCM experiments, a non-linear dependence of tropical precipitation pattern change on CO 2 forcing is identified. These non-linearities are relatively large and widespread throughout the tropics, and so should not be neglected in projections of future precipitation change. This has implications for the use of pattern-scaling and simple climate models to produce precipitation projections, and for physical understanding of precipitation change across forcing scenarios. The non-linearities can be understood by considering that processes which cause precipitation change, such as increasing moisture, a weakening circulation, and convergence zone shifts, interact in a non-linear manner even when individual processes arequasi-linear. Three driver interactions are identified: ‘warm-shift’, ‘warm-weak’ and ‘shift-weak’. Combined with Clausius-Clapeyron non-linearity in moisture increase, these interactions drive the non-linear pattern change. A strong convergence feedback response substantially amplifies the non-linearity. This analysis is limited to ocean regions, as mechanisms are simpler than over land.

Description: [1]  We present a new method to study harmonic waves in the low ionosphere (60 - 90 km) by detecting their effects on reflection of very low frequency (VLF) radio waves. Our procedure is based on amplitude analysis of reflected VLF radio waves recorded in real time, which yields an insight into the dynamics of the ionosphere at heights where VLF radio waves are being reflected. The method was applied to perturbations induced by the solar terminator motions at sunrises and sunsets. The obtained results show that typical perturbation frequencies found to exist in higher regions of the atmosphere are also present in the lower ionosphere, which indicates a global nature of the considered oscillations. In our model atmosphere, they turn out to be the acoustic and gravity waves with comparatively short and long periods, respectively.

Description: [1]  Development of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) during the Cenozoic is controversial in terms of timing and its role in major climate transitions. Some propose that the development of the ACC was instrumental in the continental scale glaciation of Antarctica and climate cooling at the Eocene/Oligocene boundary. Here we present climate model results that show a coherent ACC was not possible during the Oligocene due to Australasian paleogeography, despite deep water connections through the Drake Passage and Tasman Gateway and the initiation of Antarctic glaciation. The simulations of ocean currents compare well to paleoenvironmental records relating to the physical oceanography of the Oligocene and provide a framework for understanding apparently contradictory dating of the initiation of the ACC. We conclude that the northward motion of the Australasian land masses and the reconfiguration of the Tasman Seaway and Drake Passage are necessary preconditions for the formation of a strong, coherent ACC.

Description: [1]  The M 7.7 Haida Gwaii earthquake radiated waves that likely dynamically triggered the M 7.5 Craig earthquake, setting two precedents. Firstly, the triggered earthquake is the largest dynamically triggered shear failure event documented to date. Secondly, the events highlight a connection between geologic structure, sedimentary troughs that act as waveguides, and triggering probability. The Haida Gwaii earthquake excited extraordinarily large waves within and beyond the Queen Charlotte Trough, which propagated well into mainland Alaska and likely triggering the Craig earthquake along the way. Previously, focusing and associated dynamic triggering have been attributed to unpredictable source effects. This case suggests that elevated dynamic triggering probabilities may exist along the many structures where sedimentary troughs overlie major faults, such as subduction zones’ accretionary prisms and transform faults’ axial valleys. Although data are sparse, I find no evidence of accelerating seismic activity in the vicinity of the Craig rupture between it and the Haida Gwaii earthquake.

Description: [1]  Abundant short-period, small-scale gravity waves have been identified in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere over Halley, Antarctica, via ground-based airglow image data. Although many are observed as freely-propagating at the heights of the airglow layers, new results under modeled conditions reveal that a significant fraction of these waves may be subject to reflections at altitudes above and below. The waves may at times be trapped within broad thermal ducts, spanning from the tropopause or stratopause to the base of the thermosphere (~140 km), which may facilitate long-range propagation (~1000 s of km) under favorable wind conditions.

Description: [1]  The capability of seasonal forecasting of global drought onset at local scales (1-degree) has been investigated using multiple climate models with 110 realizations. Climate models increase the global mean probability of drought onset detection from the climatology forecast by 31%-81%, but only increase equitable threat score by 21%-50% due to a high false alarm ratio. The multi-model ensemble increases the drought detectability over some tropical areas where individual models have better performance, but cannot help more over most extra-tropical regions. On average, less than 30% of the global drought onsets can be detected by climate models. The missed drought events are associated with low potential predictability and weak antecedent ENSO signal. Given the high false alarms, the reliability is very important for a skillful probabilistic drought onset forecast. This raises the question of whether seasonal forecasting of global drought onset is essentially a stochastic forecasting problem.

Description: [1]  New sub-auroral K -derived sector indices are proposed. They are based upon the K local geomagnetic activity indices from the planetary am network stations, and their derivation scheme draws directly from that of am indices. Four Magnetic Local Time (MLT) sectors are considered, leading to four different K -derived MLT-sector indices: the aσ Dawn (03-09 MLT), aσ Noon (09-15 MLT), aσ Dusk (15-21 MLT) and aσ Midnight (21-03 MLT) indices. They cover more than 4 solar cycles and, thus, allow robust statistical analysis. Statistical studies of the whole aσ data series and case studies for two geomagnetic storms are presented. These analyses clearly show that the four aσ have specific behaviors, and that it is possible to get insight into both the statistical properties of the physical processes responsible for the observed geomagnetic activity and contribution to the dynamics of a given storm.

Description: [1]  Boreal-winter near-surface atmospheric circulations over the Hawaiian region are known to influence the state of the tropical Pacific and initiate the development of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Here we show that these same preceding near-surface circulations have an additional influence on the longitudinal position of the resultant ENSO-related sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) as well, with warm (cold) events systematically shifted to the east (west) of the typical SST anomalies. In influencing this positioning, these atmospheric circulations in turn modify the near and far-field climate responses to these SSTs such that during warm events, the typical ENSO-related responses east (west) of the dateline are generally enhanced (reduced); conversely, during cold events the typical ENSO-related responses are generally reduced (enhanced). The fact that the extratropical atmospheric circulations in question influence the asymmetry of ENSO extremes with a 12-month lead time carries important implications for predicting the socio-economic impacts of these events.

Description: A new hybrid wavelet–bootstrap–neural network (WBNN) model is proposed in this study for short term (1, 3 and 5 day; 1 and 2 week; and 1 and 2 month) urban water demand forecasting. The new method was tested using data from the city of Montreal in Canada. The performance of the WBNN method was compared with the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous input variables (ARIMAX), traditional NNs, wavelet analysis based NNs (WNN), bootstrap based NNs (BNN), and a simple naïve persistence index model. The WBNN model was developed as an ensemble of several NNs built using bootstrap resamples of wavelet sub-time series instead of raw datasets. The results demonstrated that the hybrid WBNN and WNN models produced significantly more accurate forecasting results than the traditional NN, BNN, ARIMA and ARIMAX models. It was also found that the WBNN model reduces the uncertainty associated with the forecasts, and the performance of WBNN forecasted confidence bands were found to be more accurate and reliable than BNN forecasted confidence bands. It was found in this study that maximum temperature and total precipitation improved the accuracy of water demand forecasts using wavelet analysis. The performance of WBNN models was also compared for different numbers of bootstrap resamples (i.e., 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500) and it was found that WBNN models produced optimum results with different numbers of bootstrap resamples for different lead time forecasts with considerable variability.

Description: [1]  The 1996 short-lived subaqueous eruption at the Karymsky caldera lake suddenly changed the composition of the lake water. The lake with the surface area of ~10 km 2 and a volume of ~0.5 km 3 became acidic, increased its salinity to ~1000 mg/kg, and became dominated by SO 4 2- and Ca 2+ . Since the eruption, the lake chemistry has evolved in a predictable manner described by simple box model. As a result of dilution by incoming SO 4 -Ca-Mg poor water, SO 4 , Ca and Mg concentrations follow a simple exponential decrease with a characteristic time close to the residence time of the lake. Na, K and Cl decrease relatively significantly slower indicating a continuing input of these constituents into the lake that was initiated during the eruption. Thus, the dynamics of two groups of lake water solutes can be predicted by a simple box model for water and solute mass balance.

Description: [1]  Our understanding of Earth's carbon-climate system depends critically upon interactions between rising atmospheric CO 2 , changing land use, and nitrogen limitation on vegetation growth. Using a global land model we show how these factors interact locally to generate the global land carbon sink over the past 200 years. Nitrogen constraints were alleviated by N 2 fixation in the tropics and by atmospheric nitrogen deposition in extra-tropical regions. Non-linear interactions between land-use change and land carbon and nitrogen cycling originated from three major mechanisms: (i) a sink foregone that would have occurred without land-use conversion; (ii) an accelerated response of secondary vegetation to CO 2 and nitrogen, and (iii) a compounded clearance loss from deforestation. Over time, these non-linear effects have become increasingly important and reduce the present-day net carbon sink by ~40% or 0.4 PgC yr -1 .

Description: [1]  The stability of the K-rich new aluminous (NAL) phase was examined on the join Na 1.00  Mg 2.00 Al 4.80 Si 1.15 O 12 –K 1.00  Mg 2.00 Al 4.80 Si 1.15 O 12 (Na100–K100) up to 144 GPa by X-ray diffraction in a laser-heated diamond-anvil cell. Single-phase K100 and Na50K50 NAL were formed up to the lower mantle conditions, and the NAL phase coexisted with the calcium ferrite-type phase at 120 GPa and 2300 K for the Na75K25 bulk composition. This is a striking contrast to the K-free (Na100) NAL that becomes unstable above 27 GPa at 1850 K, which suggests that potassium stabilizes NAL at significantly higher pressures. K-rich NAL may host potassium in the lower mantle that contains K 2 O more than 0.09 wt%. In addition, the NAL phase likely formed owing to partial melting in the ultralow velocity zone or because of a basal magma ocean. Future seismological observations may clarify whether NAL is a radiogenic heat source above the core–mantle boundary.

Description: [1]  We have developed a new wave scheme particularly aiming to provide better temperature fields with realistic variability for trajectory modeling of dehydration processes in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). The new scheme includes amplitude-phase interpolation and amplification of waves in reanalysis data. Amplification factors are based on statistical variability differences between reanalysis data and radiosonde observations at 24 tropical locations during 1997-2013 boreal winters. We show that conventional linear interpolation of temperatures in the vertical coordinate degrades wave amplitudes and variability. Amplitude-phase interpolation in Fourier space greatly mitigates the problem found in linear interpolation. Furthermore, amplitudes of existing waves in reanalyses were amplified to generate realistic variability. In addition to improvements in variability, the scheme lowers cold point temperatures and raises cold point tropopause heights. Having realistic variability with the new approach will reduce uncertainties in simulations of TTL cirrus clouds and stratospheric water vapor.

Description: [1]  High ambient temperatures intensify photochemical production of tropospheric ozone, leading to concerns that global warming may exacerbate smog episodes. This widely-observed phenomenon has been termed the climate penalty factor (CPF). A variety of meteorological and photochemical processes have been suggested to explain why surface ozone increases on hot days. Here, we quantify an anthropogenic factor previously overlooked: the rise of ozone precursor emissions on hot summer days due to high electricity demand. Between 1997 and 2011, power plant emissions of NO x in the eastern U.S. increased by ~2.5-4.0%/°C, raising surface NO x concentrations by 0.10-0.25 ppb/°C. Given an ozone production efficiency (OPE) of ~8 mol/mol based on the 2011 NASA DISCOVER-AQ campaign, at least 1/3 of the CPF observed in the eastern U.S. can be attributed to the temperature dependence of NO x emissions. This finding suggests that controlling emissions associated with electricity generation on hot summer days can mitigate the CPF.

Description: ABSTRACT Although mechanistic reaction networks have been developed to quantify the biogeochemical evolution of subsurface systems associated with bioremediation, it is difficult in practice to quantify the onset and distribution of these transitions at the field scale using commonly collected wellbore datasets. As an alternative approach to the mechanistic methods, we develop a data-driven, statistical model to identify biogeochemical transitions using various time-lapse aqueous geochemical data (e.g., Fe(II), sulfate, sulfide, acetate, and uranium concentrations) and induced polarization (IP) data. We assume that the biogeochemical transitions can be classified as several dominant states that correspond to redox transitions and test the method at a uranium-contaminated site. The relationships between the geophysical observations and geochemical time-series vary depending upon the unknown underlying redox status, which is modeled as a hidden Markov random field. We estimate unknown parameters by maximizing the joint likelihood function using the maximization-expectation algorithm. The case study results show that when considered together aqueous geochemical data and IP imaginary conductivity provide a key diagnostic signature of biogeochemical stages. The developed method provides useful information for evaluating the effectiveness of bioremediation, such as the probability of being in specific redox stages following biostimulation where desirable pathways (e.g., uranium removal) are more highly favored. The use of geophysical data in the approach advances the possibility of using non-invasive methods to monitor critical biogeochemical system stages and transitions remotely and over field relevant scales (e.g., from square meters to several hectares).

Description: In recent years, a number of numerical modelling studies of transient sea-level rise (SLR) and seawater intrusion (SWI) in flux-controlled systems have reported an overshoot phenomenon, whereby the freshwater-saltwater interface temporarily extends further inland than the eventual steady-state position. In this study, we have carried out physical sand tank modelling of SLR-SWI in a flux-controlled unconfined aquifer setting to test if SWI overshoot is a measurable physical process. Photographs of the physical SLR experiments show, for the first time, that an overshoot occurs under controlled laboratory conditions. A sea-level drop (SLD) experiment was also carried out, and overshoot was again observed, whereby the interface was temporarily closer to the coast than the eventual steady-state position. This shows that an overshoot can occur for the case of a retreating interface. Numerical modelling corroborated the physical SLR and SLD experiments. The magnitude of the overshoot for SLR and SLD in the physical experiments was 24% of the change in steady-state interface position, albeit the laboratory setting is designed to maximise overshoot extent by adopting high groundwater flow gradients and large and rapid sea-level changes. While the likelihood of overshoot at the field scale appears to be low, this work has shown that it can be observed under controlled laboratory conditions.

Description: A new analytical solution of the flow equation has been developed to estimate the time to reach a near-equilibrium state in mixed aquifers, i.e. having unconfined and confined portions, following a large hydraulic perturbation. Near-equilibrium is defined as the time for an initial aquifer perturbation to dissipate by an average 95% across the aquifer.The new solution has been obtained by solving the flow system of a simplified conceptual model of a mixed aquifer using Laplace transforms. The conceptual model is based on two assumptions: 1) the groundwater flow can be reduced to a horizontal 1D problem; and 2) the transmissivity, a function of the saturated thickness, is assumed constant on the unconfined portion. This new solution depends on the storativity of the unconfined portion, the lengths of the unconfined and confined portions and the transmissivity, assumed to be constant and equal in both portions of the mixed aquifer. This solution was then tested and validated against a numerical flow model, where the variations of the saturated thickness and therefore variations of the transmissivity were either ignored, or properly modeled. The agreement between the results from the new solution and those from the numerical model is good, validating the use of this new solution to estimate the time to reach near-equilibrium in mixed aquifers. This solution for mixed aquifers, as well as the solutions for a fully confined or fully unconfined aquifer, have been used to estimate the time to reach near-equilibrium in thirteen large aquifers in the world. For those different aquifers, the time to reach near-equilibrium ranges between 0.7 ky to 2.4x10 7 ky. These results suggest that the present hydraulic heads in these aquifers are typically a mixture of responses induced from current and past hydrologic conditions and thus climate conditions. For some aquifers, the modern hydraulic heads may in fact depend upon hydrologic conditions resulting from several past climate cycles.

Description: The impact of contact angle on 2D spatial and temporal water content distribution during infiltration and drainage was experimentally studied. The 0.3-0.5 mm fraction of a quartz dune sand was treated and turned sub-critically repellent (contact angle of 33 0 , 48 0 , 56 0 , and 75 0 for S33, S48, S56, and S75, respectively). The media were packed uniformly in transparent flow chambers and water was supplied to the surface as a point source at different rates (1 to 20 ml/min). A sequence of grey-value images was taken by CCD camera during infiltration and subsequent drainage; grey values were converted to volumetric water content by water volume balance. Narrow and long plumes with water accumulation behind the downward moving wetting front (tip) and negative water gradient above it (tail) developed in the S56 and S75 media during infiltration at lower water application rates. The plumes became bulbous with spatially uniform water content distribution as water application rates increased. All plumes in these media propagated downward at a constant rate during infiltration and were frozen during drainage. In contrast, regular plume shapes were observed in the S33 and S48 media at all flow rates, and drainage profiles were non-monotonic with a transition plane at the depth that water reached during infiltration. Given that the studied media have similar pore-size distributions, the conclusion is that imbibition hindered by the non-zero contact angle induced pressure buildup at the wetting front (dynamic water entry value) that controlled the plume shape and internal water-content distribution during infiltration and drainage.

Description: Estimation of design quantiles of hydro-meteorological variables at critical locations in river basins is necessary for hydrological applications. To arrive at reliable estimates for locations (sites) where no or limited records are available, various regional frequency analysis (RFA) procedures have been developed over the past five decades. The most widely used procedure is based on Index-flood approach and L -moments. It assumes that values of scale and shape parameters of frequency distribution are identical across all the sites in a homogeneous region. In real world scenario, this assumption may not be valid even if a region is statistically homogeneous. To address this issue, a novel mathematical approach is proposed. It involves (i) identification of an appropriate frequency distribution to fit the random variable being analyzed for homogeneous region, (ii) use of a proposed transformation mechanism to map observations of the variable from original space to a dimensionless space where the form of distribution does not change, and variation in values of its parameters is minimal across sites, (iii) construction of a growth curve in the dimensionless space, and (iv) mapping the curve to the original space for the target site by applying inverse transformation to arrive at required quantile(s) for the site. Effectiveness of the proposed approach in predicting quantiles for ungauged sites is demonstrated through Monte-Carlo simulation experiments considering five frequency distributions that are widely used in RFA, and by case study on watersheds in conterminous United States. Results indicate that the proposed approach outperforms methods based on index-flood approach.

Description: Prediction of microbial surface water contamination is a formidable task because of the inherent randomness of environmental processes driving microbial fate and transport. In this article we develop a theoretical framework of a fully stochastic model of microbial transport in watersheds, and apply the theory to a simple flow network to demonstrate its use. The framework bridges the gap between microscopic behavior of individual microorganisms and macroscopic ensemble dynamics. This scaling is accomplished within a single mathematical framework, where each microorganism behaves according to a continuous-time discrete-space Markov process, and the Markov behavior of individual microbes gives rise to a non-homogeneous Poisson random field that describes microbial population dynamics. Mean value functions are derived, and the spatial and temporal distribution of water contamination risk is computed in a straightforward manner.

Description: [1]  We derive a finite slip model for the 2013 M w 8.3 Sea of Okhotsk Earthquake (Z = 610 km) by inverting calibrated teleseismic P-waveforms. The inversion shows that the earthquake ruptured on a 10° dipping rectangular fault zone (140 km × 50 km) and evolved into a sequence of 4 large sub-events (E1-E4) with an average rupture speed of 4.0 km/s. The rupture process can be divided into two main stages. The first propagated south, rupturing sub-events E1, E2 and E4. The second stage (E3) originated near E2 with a delay of 12 s and ruptured northwards, filling the slip-gap between E1 and E2. This kinematic process produces an overall slip pattern similar to that observed in shallow swarms, except it occurs over a compressed time span of about 30s and without many aftershocks, suggesting that sub-event triggering for deep events is significantly more efficient than for shallow events.

Description: [1]  We report on seismic and petrological data that provide new constraints on the geological evolution of the Amerasia Basin. A seismic reflection profile across the Makarov Basin, located between the Mendeleev and Lomonosov ridges, shows a complete undisturbed sedimentary section of Mesozoic/Cenozoic age. In contrast to the Mendeleev Ridge, the margin of the Lomonosov Ridge is wide and shows horst and graben structures. We suggest that the Mendeleev Ridge is most likely volcanic in origin and support this finding with a 40 Ar/ 39 Ar isotopic age for a tholeitic basalt sampled from the central Alpha/Mendeleev Ridge. Seismic reflection data for the Makarov Basin show no evidence of compressional features consistent with the Lomonosov Ridge moving as a microplate in the Cenozoic. We propose that the Amerasia Basin moved as a single tectonic plate during the opening of the Eurasia Basin.

Description: [1]  Scaling relations for seismic moment M 0 , rupture area S , average slip D , and asperity size S a were obtained for large, great, and giant ( M w  = 6.7–9.2) subduction-zone earthquakes. We compiled the source parameters for seven giant ( M w  ~ 9) earthquakes globally for which the heterogeneous slip distributions were estimated from tsunami and geodetic data. We defined S a for subfaults exhibiting slip greater than 1.5 times D . Adding 25 slip models of 10 great earthquakes around Japan, we recalculated regression relations for 32 slip models: S  = 1.34 × 10 −10   M 0 2/3 , D  = 1.66 × 10 −7   M 0 1/3 , S a  = 2.81 × 10 −11   M 0 2/3 , and S a / S  = 0.2, where S and S a are in km 2 , M 0 is in Nm, and D is in m. These scaling relations are very similar to those obtained by Murotani et al. (2008) for large and great earthquakes. Thus, both scaling relations can be used for future tsunami hazard assessment associated with a giant earthquake.

Description: [1]  We observe the nucleation phase of in-plane ruptures in the laboratory. We show that the nucleation is composed of two distinct phases, a quasi-static and an acceleration stage, followed by dynamic propagation. We propose an empirical model which describes the rupture length evolution: the quasi-static phase is described by an exponential growth while the acceleration phase is described by an inverse power law of time. The transition from quasistatic to accelerating rupture is related to the critical nucleation length, which scales inversely with normal stress in accordance with theoretical predictions, and to a critical surfacic power, which may be an intrinsic property of the interface. Finally, we discuss these results in the frame of previous studies and propose a scaling up to natural earthquake dimensions.

Description: [1]  Gravity anomalies derived from recent GRAIL data suggest the presence of early volume expansion of the Moon. The absence of identifiable thrust faults limits the total net contraction that has occurred. These observations provide constraints on the lunar thermal evolution which raise questions for giant impact origin of the Moon. To study the lunar expansion/contraction history, we perform 3D thermochemical mantle evolution models, with solidifying core overlain by a layer of ilmenite-bearing cumulates (IBC) resulting from mantle overturn after magma ocean solidification. Our models focus on the effects of the overturn-produced density stratification with a deep heat-producing element (HPE) distribution and a top insulating megaregolith layer. The deep HPE can cause an early expansion up to 1.5 km radius due to the heating of the deep mantle. This HPE distribution also reduces the present-day contraction by ~7 km. Compared to the models without overturn, an end-member model with a stable IBC-rich layer on the core-mantle boundary shows an overall present-day contraction as small as 1.1 km. The low thermal conductivity of megaregolith also affects the present-day contraction, reducing it by ~ 3 km.

Description: [1]  The interaction between the moons and the magnetosphere of giant planets sometimes gives rise to auroral signatures in the planetary ionosphere, called the satellite footprints. So far, footprints have been detected for Io, Europa, Ganymede and Enceladus. These footprints are usually seen as single spots. However, the Io footprint, the brightest one, displays a much more complex morphology made of at least three different spots and an extended tail. Here, we present Hubble Space Telescope FUV images showing evidence for a second spot in the Ganymede footprint. The spots separation distance changes as Ganymede moves latitudinally in the plasma sheet, as is seen for the Io footprint. This indicates that the processes identified at Io are universal. Moreover, for similar Ganymede System III longitudes, the distance may also vary significantly with time, indicating changes in the plasma sheet density. We identified a rapid evolution of this distance ~8 days after the detection of a volcanic outburst at Io, suggesting that such auroral observations could be used to estimate the plasma density variations at Ganymede.

Description: [1]  This paper presents a predictability study of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that relies on combining empirical model reduction (EMR) with the “past-noise forecasting” (PNF) method. EMR is a data-driven methodology for constructing stochastic rotect low-dimensional models that account for nonlinearity, seasonality, and serial correlation in the estimated noise, while PNF constructs an ensemble of forecasts that accounts for interactions between (i) high-frequency variability (“noise”), estimated here by EMR; and (ii) the low-frequency mode (LFM) of MJO, as captured by singular-spectrum analysis (SSA). A key result is that — compared to an EMR ensemble driven by generic white noise — PNF is able to considerably improve prediction of MJO phase. When forecasts are initiated from weak MJO conditions, the useful skill is of up to 30 days. PNF also significantly improves MJO prediction skill for forecasts that start over the Indian Ocean.

Description: The anomalously snowy winter season of 2010/11 in the Sierra Nevada is analyzed in terms of snow water equivalent (SWE) anomalies and the role of atmospheric rivers (ARs)―narrow channels of enhanced meridional water vapor transport between the tropics and extratropics. Mean April 1 SWE was 0.44 m (56%) above normal averaged over 100 snow sensors. AR occurrence was anomalously high during the period, with 20 AR dates during the season and 14 in the month of December 2010, compared to the mean occurrence of 9 dates per season. Fifteen out of the 20 AR dates were associated with the negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern. Analysis of all winter ARs in California during water years 1998–2011 indicates more ARs occur during the negative phase of AO and PNA, with the increase between positive and negative phases being ˜90% for AO, and ˜50% for PNA. The circulation pattern associated with concurrent negative phases of AO and PNA, characterized by cyclonic anomalies centered northwest of California, provides a favorable dynamical condition for ARs. The analysis suggests that the massive Sierra Nevada snowpack during the 2010/11 winter season is primarily related to anomalously high frequency of ARs favored by the joint phasing of −AO and −PNA, and that a secondary contribution is from increased snow accumulation during these ARs favored by colder air temperatures associated with −AO, −PNA and La Niña.

Description: The baseflow recession constant, K b , is used to characterize the interaction of groundwater and surface water systems. Estimation of K b is critical in many studies including rainfall-runoff modeling, estimation of low flow statistics at ungaged locations and baseflow separation methods. The performance of several estimators of K b are compared, including several new approaches which account for the impact of human withdrawals. A traditional semi-log estimation approach adapted to incorporate the influence of human withdrawals was preferred over other derivative-based estimators. Human withdrawals are shown to have a significant impact on the estimation of baseflow recessions, even when withdrawals are relatively small. Regional regression models are developed to relate seasonal estimates of K b to physical, climatic, and anthropogenic characteristics of stream-aquifer systems. Among the factors considered for explaining the behavior of K b , both drainage density and human withdrawals have significant and similar explanatory power. We document the importance of incorporating human withdrawals into models of the baseflow recession response of a watershed and the systemic downward bias associated with estimates of K b obtained without consideration of human withdrawals.

Description: There are significant uncertainties inherent in precipitation forecasts and these uncertainties can be communicated to users via large ensembles that are generated using stochastic models of forecast error. The Met Office and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology developed the Short Term Ensemble Prediction System (STEPS) which has been operational for a number of years. The initial formulation of Bowler et al. [2006] has been revised and extended to improve the performance over large domains, to include radar observation errors, and to facilitate the combination of forecasts from a number of sources. This paper reviews the formulation of STEPS, discusses those aspects of the formulation that have proved most problematic and presents some solutions. The performance of STEPS nowcasts is evaluated using a combination of case study examples and statistical verification from the UK. Routine forecast verification demonstrates that STEPS is capable of producing near optimal blends of a rainfall nowcast and high resolution NWP forecast. It also shows that the spread of STEPS nowcast ensembles are a good predictor of the error in the control member (unperturbed) nowcast.

Description: In this study seasonal and interannual variability of the main atmospheric moisture sources over eight regions in the Mediterranean basin were investigated along a twenty one year period. The Lagrangian dispersion model FLEXPART, developed by Stohl and James [2004, 2005], was applied to identify the contribution of humidity to the moisture budget of each region. This methodology is used to compute budgets of evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) by calculating changes in the specific humidity along backward trajectories, for the preceding ten-day periods. The results show clear seasonal differences in the moisture sources between wet and dry seasons. The Western Mediterranean Sea is the dominant moisture source for almost all the regions in the Mediterranean basin during the wet season, while the local net evaporation dominates during the dry season. The highest interannual variability is found in contributions to the Iberian Peninsula, Italy and the Eastern Mediterranean. It is seen that the role of teleconnections is more limited than for the precipitation recorded in the region.

Description: We present a new hydrologic model based on the frequency distribution of hillslope landscape elements along the stream network as a basis for simulating landscape-scale hydrologic connectivity and catchment runoff. Hydrologic connectivity describes shallow water table continuity between upland and stream elements of the catchment and is important for the movement of water and solutes to streams. This concept has gained traction in physical hydrology but has received less attention in rainfall-runoff modeling. Our model is based on the empirical studies of Jencso et al. [2009; 2010], who found a strong correlation between the duration of shallow groundwater connectivity across hillslope, riparian, and stream zones and upslope accumulated area. We explored the relationship between catchment form and function by testing the extent to which streamflow generation could be predicted by a model based on the topographic form (distribution of landscape elements) of the catchment. We applied the model to the Stringer Creek catchment of the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest, located in Montana, USA. Detailed field observations collected by Jencso et al. [2009] were used to inform the underpinnings of the model and to corroborate internal consistency of the model simulations. The model demonstrated good agreement between the observed and predicted streamflow and connectivity duration curves. The ability of this model to simulate internal dynamics without conditioning the parameters on these data suggests that it has the potential to be more confidently extrapolated to other shallow, topographically driven catchments than hydrologic models that fail to consistently reproduce internal variables.

Description: Knowledge of hydrological model complexity can aid selection of an optimal prediction model out of a set of available models. Optimal model selection is formalized as selection of the least complex model out of a subset of models that have lower empirical risk. This may be considered equivalent to minimizing an upper bound on prediction error, defined here as the mathematical expectation of empirical risk. In this paper we derive an upper bound that is free from assumptions on data and underlying process distribution as well as on independence of model predictions over time. We demonstrate that hydrological model complexity, as defined in the presented theoretical framework, plays an important role in determining the upper bound. The model complexity also acts as a stabilizer to a hydrological model selection problem if it is deemed ill-posed. We provide an algorithm for computing complexity of any arbitrary hydrological model. We also demonstrate that hydrological model complexity has a geometric interpretation as the size of model output space. The presented theory is applied to quantify complexities of two hydrological model structures: SAC-SMA and SIXPAR. It detects that SAC-SMA is indeed more complex than SIXPAR. We also develop an algorithm to estimate the upper bound on prediction error, which is applied on 5 different rainfall-runoff model structures that vary in complexity. We show that a model selection problem is stabilized by regularizing it with model complexity. Complexity regularized model selection yields models that are robust in predicting future but yet unseen data.

Description: The temporal dynamics and spatial distribution of the concentrations of dissolved gases (He, Ar, Kr, N 2 , O 2 and CO 2 ) in an infiltrating groundwater system fed by the peri-alpine River Thur (Switzerland) were analysed before, during and after a single, well-defined flood event. The analysis was based on measurements taken in five different groundwater observation wells that were located approximately 10 m apart and tapped the same groundwater body, but were situated in three different riparian zones. The input of O 2 into the groundwater as a result of the formation of excess air was found to be of the same order of magnitude as that resulting from the advection of river water, although the amount of excess air formed and the amount of O 2 delivered varied significantly among the riparian zones. The results suggest that the input of O 2 into groundwater as a result of excess air formation is controlled not only by the hydraulic conditions prevailing in the river and the groundwater, but also by the thickness of the confining bed at the top of the aquifer. The sandy gravel aquifer itself is too coarse to trap a significant amount of air during the water level rise. The clay layer confining the aquifer, however, acts as a barrier hindering the escape of air from the subsoil to the surface, and hence is likely to be a key factor controlling the trapping and dissolution of air in groundwater.

Description: Estimation of parameter values in hydrological models has gradually moved from subjective, trial-and-error methods into objective estimation methods. Translation of nature's complexity to bit operations is an uncertain process as a result of data errors, epistemic gaps, computational deficiencies, and other limitations, and relies on calibration to fit model output to observed data. The robustness of the calibrated parameter values to these types of uncertainties is therefore an important concern. In this study, we investigated how the hydrological robustness of the model-parameter values varied within the geometric structure of the behavioral (well-performing) parameter space with a depth function based on α shapes and an in-depth posterior performance analysis of the simulations in relation to the observed discharge uncertainty. The α shape depth is a non-convex measure that may provide an accurate and tight delimitation of the geometric structure of the behavioral space for both uni- and multimodal parameter-value distributions. WASMOD, a parsimonious rainfall-runoff model, was applied to six Honduran and one UK catchment, with differing data quality and hydrological characteristics. Model evaluation was done with two performance measures, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and one based on flow-duration curves. Deep parameter vectors were in general found to be more hydrologically robust than shallow ones in the analyses we performed; model-performance values increased with depth, deviations to the observed data for the high-flow aspects of the hydrograph generally decreased with increasing depth, deep parameter vectors generally transferred in time with maintained high performance values, and the model had a low sensitivity to small changes in the parameter values. The tight delimitation of the behavioral space provided by the α shapes depth function showed a potential to improve the efficiency of calibration techniques that require further exploration. For computational reasons only a three-parameter model could be used, which limited the applicability of this depth measure and the conclusions drawn in this paper, especially concerning hydrological robustness at low flows.

Description: [1]  The Mojave Neovolcanic Province (MNVP), located in the Mojave block of southern California, comprises late Miocene to Quaternary small-volume basaltic centers. Geochemistry indicates an asthenospheric source for the MNVP beginning in the late Miocene, but no physical evidence of missing mantle lithosphere has been presented. We utilize receiver functions and ambient noise tomography to image the lithosphere beneath the Mojave block. Regionally, we find thin crust that thickens distal to sites of MNVP volcanism. Shear wave velocities between 40 and 75 km depth are consistent with the presence of mantle lithosphere in the southern Mojave block and very thin or missing mantle lithosphere to the north. With one exception, MNVP volcanoes lie along this sharp boundary. Our observations, together with the established geologic history and geochemistry of the MNVP, can be explained by small-scale edge-driven convection producing ongoing lithospheric removal within the Mojave block. Our results provide another example of lithospheric instability that occurs in response to rapid changes in mantle dynamics induced by major changes in tectonic plate geometry.

Description: [1]  Computational, Mössbauer and synchrotron radiation experiments arrive at disparate conclusions regarding the magnetic state of the high-pressure, hexagonal closed packed, phase of iron, which likely comprises the bulk composition of Earth's inner core. Using a non-magnetic, moissanite anvil cell together with a superconducting magnetometer, we measured the remanent magnetization of iron in response to applied magnetic fields under pressure up to 21.5 GPa at room temperature. Two independent experiments using different pressure transmission media reveal a higher remanent magnetization at 21.5 GPa than at initial conditions, which could be attributed to a distorted hexagonal closed packed phase grown during the martensitic transition. Upon both compression and decompression, the remanent magnetization of the body centered cubic phase increases several times over initial conditions while the coercivity of remanence remains mostly invariant with pressure.

Description: [1]  Numerous empirical studies have analyzed International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data and reached contradictory conclusions regarding the influence of solar-modulated galactic cosmic rays on cloud fraction and cloud properties. The Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument on the Terra satellite has been in continuous operation for 13 years and thus provides an independent (and previously unutilized) cloud dataset to investigate purported solar–cloud links. Furthermore, unlike many previous solar–climate studies that report cloud fraction MISR measures albedo, which has clearer climatological relevance. Our long-term analysis of MISR data finds no statistically significant correlations between cosmic rays and global albedo or globally averaged cloud height, and no evidence for any regional or lagged correlations. Moreover, epoch superposition analysis of Forbush decreases reveals no detectable albedo response to cosmic ray decreases, thereby placing an upper limit on the possible influence of cosmic ray variations on global albedo of 0.0029 per 5% decrease. The implications for recent global warming are discussed.

Description: [1]  We studied decadal-scale climate control of zooplankton biogeography driven by Kuroshio Extension (KE) dynamics using long-term zooplankton data and an advection model driven with currents from the Earth Simulator eddy-resolving ocean model. Passive tracer model experiments indicated that warm-water species transported from the south were retained in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) region during years with a weak KE. A 2.5-year lag in the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index was significantly correlated with the KE strength and with warm-water species abundance. These findings indicate that climate signals from the central and eastern North Pacific propagated westward, influencing not only transport in the KOE region but also regional ecosystem variability. Because the NPGO controls important aspects of the transport dynamics and ecosystem variability in the eastern North Pacific, this study provides additional evidence that large-scale climate patterns drive coherent changes in ecosystems throughout the North Pacific by impacting regional-scale transport dynamics.

Description: [1]  Using a stable isotope tracer technique, we studied the exchange of methyl chloride (CH 3 Cl) and methyl bromide (CH 3 Br) between plants and the atmosphere in a tropical rainforest in Malaysia. Most plant species examined showed not only production but also consumption of CH 3 Cl with a large net emission overall. In contrast, CH 3 Br consumption was comparable to its production, so the net emission was small. The rates of CH 3 Cl and CH 3 Br consumption were highly correlated with each other, and their ratio was consistent with reported values in terrestrial ecosystems, where microorganisms are responsible for the consumption. Such microorganisms might participate in the consumption we observed, as the consumption rates were faster in saplings, whose leaves were generally covered by epiphytic microorganisms, than in healthy looking leaves of mature trees.

Description: [1]  Taiwan's active mountain belt is a spotlight for orogenic studies and was first used to test the critical-taper wedge mechanics. The concept of an orogenic wedge above a shallow detachment surface has been highly influential on current understanding of orogenic processes in Taiwan. However, the recent M L 6.2 and M L 6.5 2013 Nantou reverse-faulting earthquakes in central Taiwan nucleated below the proposed detachment indicating that active mountain building is occurring below the orogenic wedge. We estimate the coseismic slip distributions and fault geometry using the uniform stress drop slip inversions. The earthquakes occur on essentially the same 30° dipping fault plane ramping up from ~20 km depth near a cluster of 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake aftershocks to the shallow detachment and the Chi-Chi fault plane. The fault could be a deep extension of a mature shallow fault or a newly-developed deep ramp fault that is not reflected in the surface geology.

Description: [1]  Comparisons between climate models have found large differences in predictions for the albedo of forested regions with snow cover, leading to uncertainty in the strength of snow albedo feedbacks on climate change predicted by these models. To explore this uncertainty, three commonly used methods for calculating the albedo of vegetated surfaces are compared, taking observed snow and vegetation distributions as inputs. Surprisingly, all three methods produce similar results and compare reasonably well with observations over seasonally snow covered regions of the Northern Hemisphere. It appears that some climate models use unrealistic parameter values, and snow albedo masking need not be as large a source of uncertainty as it is in current climate projections.

Description: [1]  A classical paradigm for terrestrial climate variability involves remote sea-surface temperature forcing, communicated to receptor regions via atmospheric teleconnections. Here, the teleconnection link is abstracted in terms of Shannon's information-theoretic measure “channel capacity.” An upper bound on the channel capacity for DJF seasonal precipitation teleconnections with sea surface temperature in the NINO3.4 region, when both variables are tercile-quantized, is estimated as one bit, meaning that it is only marginally possible to distinguish reliably between two NINO3.4 input states on the basis of observed precipitation output amounts, the central tercile acting principally to degrade reliability. A relationship between the channel capacity in a continuous model and the correlation coefficient is established; the corresponding nonlinear transformation provides a useful shift in perspective on the communication of information as such via teleconnections.

Description: [1]  Although the persistently active Soufrière Hills Volcano (Montserrat, West Indies) is one of the most extensively studied active stratovolcanoes, a local Bouguer gravity map of the volcano and the island of Montserrat has yet to be constructed. We collected 157 new gravity data, which we analysed and inverted in order to constrain the island's subsurface density distribution. Our model results reveal high-density material beneath the centres of the extinct volcanic complexes – presumably related to exposed dome cores – while the volcanic flanks and the active Soufrière Hills Volcano are underlain by low-density material. Volcaniclastic deposits and subsurface melt aggregations, respectively, may explain these negative gravity anomalies. Our results are in good agreement with previous structural observations from seismic tomography, yet a higher spatial density of the gravity survey network has allowed us to additionally capture smaller, shallow-seated anomalies in the gravity field that relate to tectonic structures and fluvial filling deposits.

Description: [1]  We numerically simulate slow slip events (SSEs) in the Shikoku region of Japan, incorporating the configuration of the subducting plate. We adopt a rate- and state-dependent friction law with cut-off velocities, assuming a frictional parameter distribution based on observed long-term SSEs and nonvolcanic tremors that reflects the slip of short-term SSEs. Our model reproduces recurrences of long- and short-term SSEs and segments of short-term SSEs. In our simulation, short-term SSEs’ transition from episodic to continuous slip is reproduced. This feature is consistent with tremor activity recently reported in both Shikoku and Cascadia. In addition to the long-term SSEs in the Bungo Channel, our model also reproduces newly found long-term SSEs in central Shikoku, and predicts that these SSEs recur during the interseismic period between megathrust earthquakes. Our model comprehensively reproduces various SSEs and their characteristics as reported in the Shikoku region.

Description: [1]  Poleward warm-water flows around Point Conception are an important transport mechanism linking biogeographic provinces along central California. These flows are initiated by relaxation of upwelling winds; the intensity and duration of upwelling is an important driver of how far north warm water penetrates against the prevailing surface currents. In this paper we present evidence of offshore surface water intrusions to the inner shelf, 130 km north of Point Conception, near Cambria, California. Satellite observations show that the intrusions originate as eddies generated offshore along the upwelling front. These eddies may form as submesoscale instabilities or by interaction of upwelling centers with offshore waters. The intrusions move southern watersto the central California inner shelf farther northward than is typical for a coastal relaxation plume, and therefore inner shelf connectivity and ecology may be governed over timescales and distances longer than those set by the intermittent relaxation of upwelling winds.

Description: [1]  The rupture history of the April 20, 2013 Mw 6.6 Lushan (China) earthquake is constrained by inverting waveforms of local strong motion, teleseismic broadband body waves, and long period surface waves. This earthquake ruptured a blind thrust fault oriented N210 o E (along the Longmenshan fault zone) and dipping 40 o to the NW. The inverted slip distribution is heterogeneous, dominated by a slip patch with a roughly right triangular shape, which spans a depth range of 5-20 km and accounts for two-thirds of the total seismic moment (8.9x10 18 Nm). The rupture initiated roughly at the middle of the triangle's hypotenuse and, during the first 4 s, propagated mainly in along-strike and down-dip directions, towards a peak slip of 1.2 m. Despite a large number of fatalities and economic loss, the estimated static and apparent stress drops of the Lushan earthquake are 1.5 MPa and 0.35 MPa, considerably low with respect to other similar intra-plate earthquakes.

Description: [1]  The efficiency of heat transfer by conduction in Earth's core controls the dynamics of convection and limits the power available for the geodynamo. We have measured the room temperature electrical resistivity of iron and iron-silicon alloy to 60 GPa and present a new model of the resistivity at the high pressures and temperatures relevant to Earth's core. The model is compared with available shock wave data and theoretical studies. For a power law and linear temperature dependence of electrical resistivity, the calculated thermal conductivity at the core mantle boundary is ~67-145 W/m/K for pure Fe, and ~41-60 W/m/K for Fe-9wt.%Si. Impurities in the core have a strong effect on the transport properties of iron that could significantly impact core thermal models. The models describing the data indicate higher thermal conductivity at core pressure than previously suggested, requiring additional energy sources in the past to operate the geodynamo.

Description: [1]  Unusual ionospheric variations were observed in the M9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake on 11 March 2011. Among various kinds of features in the ionosphere, significant depletion of TEC near the epicenter was observed after the earthquake. Although previous studies have suggested that the coseismic ionospheric variations are associated with atmospheric perturbation caused by vertical displacement of the sea surface, the mechanism of the TEC depletion has not been fully understood. In this paper, a two-dimensional nonlinear nonhydrostatic compressible atmosphere–ionosphere model is employed to investigate the ionospheric variations in the vicinity of the epicenter. The simulation results reveal that an impulsive pressure pulse produced by a sudden uplift of the sea surface leads to local atmospheric expansion in the thermosphere and that the expansion of the thermosphere combined with the effect of inclined magnetic field lines in the ionosphere causes the sudden TEC depletion above the epicenter region.

Description: [1]  We show that subglacial freshwater discharge is the principal process driving high rates of submarine melting at tidewater glaciers. This buoyant discharge draws in warm seawater, entraining it in a turbulent upwelling flow along the submarine face that melts glacier ice. To capture the effects of subglacial discharge on submarine melting, we conducted four days of hydrographic transects during late summer 2012 at LeConte Glacier, Alaska. A major rainstorm allowed us to document the influence of large changes in subglacial discharge. We found strong submarine melt fluxes that increased from 9.1 ± 1.0 to 16.8 ± 1.3 m d −1 (ice face equivalent frontal ablation) as a result of the rainstorm. With projected continued global warming and increased glacial runoff, our results highlight the direct impact that increases in subglacial discharge will have on tidewater outlet systems. These effects must be considered when modeling glacier response to future warming and increased runoff.

Description: [1]  Although volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes often occur in response to magma intrusion, it is rare for them to have magnitudes larger than ~ M4. On 24 May 2007, two shallow M4+ earthquakes occurred beneath the upper part of the east rift zone of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i. An integrated analysis of geodetic, seismic and field data, together with Coulomb stress modeling, demonstrates that the earthquakes occurred due to strike-slip motion on pre-existing faults that bound Kīlauea Caldera to the southeast and that pressurization of Kīlauea's summit magma system may have been sufficient to promote faulting. For the first time, we infer a plausible origin to generate rare moderate-magnitude VTs at Kīlauea by reactivation of suitably oriented pre-existing caldera-bounding faults. Rare moderate to large-magnitude VTs at Kīlauea and other volcanoes can therefore result from reactivation of existing fault planes due to stresses induced by magmatic processes.

Description: [1]  Estimates of the oceanic lateral eddy diffusion coefficient A redi vary by more than an order of magnitude, ranging from less than a few hundred m 2 /s to thousands of m 2 /s. This uncertainty has first-order implications for the intensity of oceanic hypoxia, which is poorly simulated by the current generation of Earth System Models. Using satellite-based estimate of oxygen consumption in hypoxic waters to estimate the required diffusion coefficient for these waters gives a value of order 1000 m 2 /s. Varying A redi across a suite of Earth System Models yields a broadly consistent result given a thermocline diapycnal diffusion coefficient of 1x10 -5  m 2 /s.

Description: The cosmic-ray neutron probe measures soil moisture over tens of hectares, thus averaging spatially variable soil moisture fields. A previous paper described how variable soil moisture profiles affect the integrated cosmic-ray neutron signal from which depth-average soil moisture is computed. Here, we investigate the effect of horizontal heterogeneity on the relationship between neutron counts and average soil moisture. Observations from a distributed sensor network at a site in southern Arizona indicate that the horizontal component of the total variance of the soil moisture field is less variably in time than the vertical component. Using results from neutron particle transport simulations we show that 1-D binary distributions of soil moisture may affect both the mean and variance of neutron counts of a cosmic-ray neutron detector placed arbitrarily in a soil moisture field, potentially giving rise to an underestimate of the footprint average soil moisture. Similar simulations that used 1 and 2-D Gaussian soil moisture fields indicate consistent mean and variances of a randomly placed detector if the correlation length scales are short (〈˜30 m) and/or the soil moisture field variance is small (〈0.032 m 6 m -6 ). Taken together, these soil moisture observations and neutron transport simulations show that horizontal heterogeneity likely has a small effect on the relationship between mean neutron counts and average soil moisture for soils under natural conditions.

Description: [1]  This study analyzes whether the imprint of external forcings can be detected in the long-term evolution of the main atmospheric circulation patterns in climate simulations over the last millennium. The external forcing is not found to significantly add variability in any frequency band compared to control simulations where the external drivers are kept constant. Additionally, a method designed to detect a common signal in the time evolution of these circulation patterns among all simulations is proposed, and employed to demonstrate that the null hypothesis of an evolution dominated by internal variability can not be rejected regardless of the time smoothing applied to the series. Given that the fingerprint of external forcings on atmospheric circulation has been successfully detected in simulations of the 20th century climate and in future climate change projections, we argue that either the effect of past natural forcing is too small, state-of-the-art climate models underestimate their climate sensitivity, or the anthropogenic forcing qualitatively differs from the natural forcing in its effect on main circulation patterns.

Description: [1]  The 2011 Tohoku earthquake produced tens of meters of fault slip near the Japan Trench, which generated devastating tsunami. The rupture process before the huge slip is still unclear due to a lack of resolution. Here I perform a multiscale slip inversion analysis to examine the first 10 and 20 s of the rupture process and the whole rupture process at different scales. The result shows that 4 s after the initiation, this earthquake started with a relatively high-speed rupture that had a peak slip-rate faster than 1 m/s and rupture velocity comparable to 3 km/s. 14 s after the initiation, the rupture propagation direction changed from northward to westward, near the edge of the M 7.3 foreshock coseismic slip area. The stress release by the foreshock may contribute to the complex small-scale rupture propagation, which may appear to be a slow rupture propagation when only looking at long-period data.

Description: [1]  As the primary source of nutrients to the global thermocline, Subantarctic Mode Waters (SAMWs) play a key role in primary production and climate. Here we use repeat hydrographic WOCE/CLIVAR data to quantify interannual SAMW nutrient variability and its forcing. Pacific sector SAMW nutrients were significantly correlated with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and wind stress curl anomalies associated with a faster meridional overturning circulation (MOC). A stronger MOC results in greater upwelling of nutrients at high latitudes, increased Ekman transport of nutrients equatorward, and subduction of higher preformed nutrient loads in SAMWs. Australian sector SAMWs were significantly correlated with ENSO, likely due to its modulation of transport in the East Australian Current extension. Interannual variability in SAMW nutrients impacts downstream tropical export production by as much as 5-12% of the annual mean.

Description: Widespread disturbance within forested catchments typically increases runoff. However, following widespread fire in 1939 throughout south-east Australia Kuczera [1987] reported persistent reductions in runoff that were attributed to increased evapotranspiration from regenerating ‘ash’ forests. Kuczera projected ongoing reductions of water yield for ~150 years. In 2003 widespread fire in the headwaters of the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) again stimulated extensive regeneration of ash forests, raising the prospect of subsequent water yield reductions. To understand the potential impact of the 2003 bushfires we re-evaluated yield reductions from three of the catchments originally studied by Kuczera using the same calibration period. We also used an expanded pre-fire calibration period (1908-1938) based on data not originally available to Kuczera. The trend of post-fire water yield that we observed in 1939-affected catchments is qualitatively consistent with Kuczera's projections, but the quantitative details were, as expected, sensitive to the pre-fire calibration period used. We then used a simplified method to examine a further five ash-dominated catchments affected by the 2003 fires. We report relative reductions in mean annual stream flow in all five catchments and a statistically significant (α=0.05) post-fire reduction in one of five catchments. Post-fire yield reductions during the austral summer (October-April) were greater in relative magnitude in all five catchments and were statistically significant (α=0.05) in three of five catchments. We conclude that a post-bushfire Kuczera-type response may be widespread in regenerating ash forests. On that basis we anticipate post-fire yield reductions in ash forests elsewhere and conclude that further reductions in stream flow are likely in the MDB for at least another decade.