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  • Cambridge University Press  (12,707)
  • 2020-2023  (19)
  • 1990-1994  (12,688)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Xu, L., Roberts, M., Elder, K., Hansman, R., Gagnon, A., & Kurz, M. Radiocarbon in dissolved organic carbon by UV oxidation: an update of procedures and blank characterization at NOSAMS. Radiocarbon, 64(1), (2022): 195-199, https://doi.org/10.1017/rdc.2022.4.
    Description: This note describes improvements of UV oxidation method that is used to measure carbon isotopes of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) at the National Ocean Sciences Accelerator Mass Spectrometry Facility (NOSAMS). The procedural blank is reduced to 2.6 ± 0.6 μg C, with Fm of 0.42 ± 0.10 and δ13C of –28.43 ± 1.19‰. The throughput is improved from one sample per day to two samples per day.
    Description: We gratefully acknowledge support from the U.S. National Science Foundation, via NSF-OCE-1755125.
    Keywords: Blank ; Dissolved organic carbon ; Radiocarbon ; UV-oxidation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-06-22
    Description: Pliocene–Quaternary faults are relevant structures with which to constrain the seismotectonic context and contribute to the evaluation of the seismic hazard of a region. Many of these faults, however, do not show clear surface evidence even when releasing earthquakes. For these reasons they can be extremely dangerous as they receive relatively little attention and can be difficult to identify. From among the various surface geology studies and/or palaeoseismological investigations, we focus our attention on the integration of different datasets such as seismic reflection profiles, surface kinematic data and the relocation of seismological data, which make it possible to identify and characterize active faults whose dimension and earthquake potential would otherwise not be large enough to make them identifiable. We take as an example the Montespertoli NE-trending fault in southern Tuscany (central Italy) with which we associate the 2016 M=3.9 Castelfiorentino earthquake. This structure is part of a wider (in the order of 15–20 km) crustal-scale shear zone, which may be responsible for strong historical earthquakes in the area.
    Description: Published
    Description: 853 - 872
    Description: 4T. Sismicità dell'Italia
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: active faults ; seismic faults ; Earthquakes ; strike-slip faults ; inner Northern Apennines ; solid earth
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    Cambridge University Press
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in McNichol, A., Key, R., & Guilderson, T. Global ocean radiocarbon programs. Radiocarbon, (2022): 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1017/rdc.2022.17.
    Description: The importance of studying the radiocarbon content of dissolved inorganic carbon (DI14C) in the oceans has been recognized for decades. Starting with the GEOSECS program in the 1970s, 14C sampling has been a part of most global survey programs. Early results were used to study air-sea gas exchange while the more recent results are critical for helping calibrate ocean general circulation models used to study the effects of climate change. Here we summarize the major programs and discuss some of the important insights the results are starting to provide.
    Description: Authors received funding from the National Science Foundation OCE-85865400 (APM) and a Woods Hole Oceanographic Technical Staff Award (APM).
    Keywords: Dissolved inorganic carbon ; Ocean models ; Oceanography ; Radiocarbon
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Druffel, E., Beaupre, S., Grotheer, H., Lewis, C., McNichol, A., Mollenhauer, G., & Walker, B. Marine organic carbon and radiocarbon – present and future challenges. Radiocarbon, (2022): 1-17, https://doi.org/10.1017/RDC.2021.105.
    Description: We discuss present and developing techniques for studying radiocarbon in marine organic carbon (C). Bulk DOC (dissolved organic C) Δ14C measurements reveal information about the cycling time and sources of DOC in the ocean, yet they are time consuming and need to be streamlined. To further elucidate the cycling of DOC, various fractions have been separated from bulk DOC, through solid phase extraction of DOC, and ultrafiltration of high and low molecular weight DOC. Research using 14C of DOC and particulate organic C separated into organic fractions revealed that the acid insoluble fraction is similar in 14C signature to that of the lipid fraction. Plans for utilizing this methodology are described. Studies using compound specific radiocarbon analyses to study the origin of biomarkers in the marine environment are reviewed and plans for the future are outlined. Development of ramped pyrolysis oxidation methods are discussed and scientific questions addressed. A modified elemental analysis (EA) combustion reactor is described that allows high particulate organic C sample throughput by direct coupling with the MIniCArbonDAtingSystem.
    Keywords: CSRA ; Dissolved organic carbon ; Methodology ; Organic carbon ; Radiocarbon
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Priscu, J. C., Kalin, J., Winans, J., Campbell, T., Siegfried, M. R., Skidmore, M., Dore, J. E., Leventer, A., Harwood, D. M., Duling, D., Zook, R., Burnett, J., Gibson, D., Krula, E., Mironov, A., McManis, J., Roberts, G., Rosenheim, B. E., Christner, B. C., Kasic, K., Fricker, H. A., Lyons, W. B., Barker, J., Bowling, M., Collins, B., Davis, C., Gagnon, A., Gardner, C., Gustafson, C., Kim, O-S., Li, W., Michaud, A., Patterson, M. O., Tranter, M., Ryan Venturelli, R., Trista Vick-Majors, T., & Elsworth, C. Scientific access into Mercer Subglacial Lake: scientific objectives, drilling operations and initial observations. Annals of Glaciology, 62(85–86), (2021): 340–352, https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2021.10.
    Description: The Subglacial Antarctic Lakes Scientific Access (SALSA) Project accessed Mercer Subglacial Lake using environmentally clean hot-water drilling to examine interactions among ice, water, sediment, rock, microbes and carbon reservoirs within the lake water column and underlying sediments. A ~0.4 m diameter borehole was melted through 1087 m of ice and maintained over ~10 days, allowing observation of ice properties and collection of water and sediment with various tools. Over this period, SALSA collected: 60 L of lake water and 10 L of deep borehole water; microbes 〉0.2 μm in diameter from in situ filtration of ~100 L of lake water; 10 multicores 0.32–0.49 m long; 1.0 and 1.76 m long gravity cores; three conductivity–temperature–depth profiles of borehole and lake water; five discrete depth current meter measurements in the lake and images of ice, the lake water–ice interface and lake sediments. Temperature and conductivity data showed the hydrodynamic character of water mixing between the borehole and lake after entry. Models simulating melting of the ~6 m thick basal accreted ice layer imply that debris fall-out through the ~15 m water column to the lake sediments from borehole melting had little effect on the stratigraphy of surficial sediment cores.
    Description: This material is based upon work supported by the US National Science Foundation, Section for Antarctic Sciences, Antarctic Integrated System Science program as part of the interdisciplinary (Subglacial Antarctic Lakes Scientific Access (SALSA): Integrated study of carbon cycling in hydrologically-active subglacial environments) project (NSF-OPP 1543537, 1543396, 1543405, 1543453 and 1543441). Ok-Sun Kim was funded by the Korean Polar Research Institute. We are particularly thankful to the SALSA traverse personnel for crucial technical and logistical support. The United States Antarctic Program enabled our fieldwork; the New York Air National Guard and Kenn Borek Air provided air support; UNAVCO provided geodetic instrument support. Hot water drilling activities, including repair and upgrade modifications of the WISSARD hot water drill system, for the SALSA project were supported by a subaward from the Ice Drilling Program of Dartmouth College (NSF-PLR 1327315) to the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. J. Lawrence assisted with manuscript preparation. Finally, we are grateful to C. Dean, the SALSA Project Manager, and R. Ricards, SALSA Project Coordinator at McMurdo Station, for their organizational skills, and B. Huber of Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory for providing the SBE39 PT sensors and the Nortek Aquadopp current meter and assisting with interpretation of the data. B. Huber also provided helpful input on programing and calibrating the SBE19PlusV2 6112 CTD.
    Keywords: Antarctic glaciology ; Basal ice ; Biogeochemistry ; Glacial sedimentology ; Subglacial lakes
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 6
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    Cambridge University Press
    In:  EPIC3Climate Change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of the WGII to the 6th assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, ,, IPCC AR6 WGII, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FinalDraft_Chapter03.pdf, Cambridge University Press
    Publication Date: 2022-08-23
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Inbook , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 7
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    Cambridge University Press
    In:  EPIC3Climate Change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of the WGII to the 6th assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, IPCC AR6 WGII, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of the WGII to the 6th assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, IPCC AR6 WGII, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FinalDraft_Chapter02.pdf, Cambridge University Press, 5 p., pp. 22-26
    Publication Date: 2022-06-17
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Inbook , peerRev
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2022-07-20
    Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Tan, S., Pratt, L. J., Voet, G., Cusack, J. M., Helfrich, K. R., Alford, M. H., Girton, J. B., & Carter, G. S. Hydraulic control of flow in a multi-passage system connecting two basins. Journal of Fluid Mechanics, 940, (2022): A8, https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2022.212.
    Description: When a fluid stream in a conduit splits in order to pass around an obstruction, it is possible that one branch will be critically controlled while the other remains not so. This is apparently the situation in Pacific Ocean abyssal circulation, where most of the northward flow of Antarctic bottom water passes through the Samoan Passage, where it is hydraulically controlled, while the remainder is diverted around the Manihiki Plateau and is not controlled. These observations raise a number of questions concerning the dynamics necessary to support such a regime in the steady state, the nature of upstream influence and the usefulness of rotating hydraulic theory to predict the partitioning of volume transport between the two paths, which assumes the controlled branch is inviscid. Through the use of a theory for constant potential vorticity flow and accompanying numerical model, we show that a steady-state regime similar to what is observed is dynamically possible provided that sufficient bottom friction is present in the uncontrolled branch. In this case, the upstream influence that typically exists for rotating channel flow is transformed into influence into how the flow is partitioned. As a result, the partitioning of volume flux can still be reasonably well predicted with an inviscid theory that exploits the lack of upstream influence.
    Description: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation under grants OCE-1029268, OCE-1029483, OCE-1657264, OCE-1657795, OCE-1657870 and OCE-1658027.
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 9
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    Cambridge University Press
    In:  EPIC3Antarctic Science, Cambridge University Press, 33(6), pp. 575-595, ISSN: 0954-1020
    Publication Date: 2022-01-13
    Description: The waters along the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) have experienced warming and increased freshwater inputs from melting sea ice and glaciers in recent decades. Challenges exist in understanding the consequences of these changes on the inorganic carbon system in this ecologically important and highly productive ecosystem. Distributions of dissolved inorganic carbon (CT), total alkalinity (AT) and nutrients revealed key physical, biological and biogeochemical controls of the calcium carbonate saturation state (Ωaragonite) in different water masses across the WAP shelf during the summer. Biological production in spring and summer dominated changes in surface water Ωaragonite (ΔΩaragonite up to +1.39; ∼90%) relative to underlying Winter Water. Sea-ice and glacial meltwater constituted a minor source of AT that increased surface water Ωaragonite (ΔΩaragonite up to +0.07; ∼13%). Remineralization of organic matter and an influx of carbon-rich brines led to cross-shelf decreases in Ωaragonite in Winter Water and Circumpolar Deep Water. A strong biological carbon pump over the shelf created Ωaragonite oversaturation in surface waters and suppression of Ωaragonite in subsurface waters. Undersaturation of aragonite occurred at 〈 ∼1000 m. Ongoing changes along the WAP will impact the biologically driven and meltwater-driven processes that influence the vulnerability of shelf waters to calcium carbonate undersaturation in the future.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in [Schiller, C. M., Whitlock, C., Elder, K. L., Iverson, N. A., & Abbott, M. B. Erroneously old radiocarbon ages from terrestrial pollen concentrates in Yellowstone Lake, Wyoming, USA. Radiocarbon, 63(1), (2021): 321-342, https://doi.org/10.1017/RDC.2020.118.
    Description: Accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) dating of pollen concentrates is often used in lake sediment records where large, terrestrial plant remains are unavailable. Ages produced from chemically concentrated pollen as well as manually picked Pinaceae grains in Yellowstone Lake (Wyoming) sediments were consistently 1700–4300 cal years older than ages established by terrestrial plant remains, tephrochronology, and the age of the sediment-water interface. Previous studies have successfully utilized the same laboratory space and methods, suggesting the source of old-carbon contamination is specific to these samples. Manually picking pollen grains precludes admixture of non-pollen materials. Furthermore, no clear source of old pollen grains occurs on the deglaciated landscape, making reworking of old pollen grains unlikely. High volumes of CO2 are degassed in the Yellowstone Caldera, potentially introducing old carbon to pollen. While uptake of old CO2 through photosynthesis is minor (F14C approximately 0.99), old-carbon contamination may still take place in the water column or in surficial lake sediments. It remains unclear, however, what mechanism allows for the erroneous ages of highly refractory pollen grains while terrestrial plant remains were unaffected. In the absence of a satisfactory explanation for erroneously old radiocarbon ages from pollen concentrates, we propose steps for further study.
    Description: This research was supported by NSF Grant No. 1515353 to C. Whitlock and sampling in Yellowstone National Park was conducted under permits YELL-SCI-0009 and YELL-SCI-5054.
    Keywords: AMS dating ; Chronology ; Contamination ; Paleoecology ; Pine
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Baker, M. G., Aster, R. C., Wiens, D. A., Nyblade, A., Bromirski, P. D., Gerstoft, P., & Stephen, R. A. Teleseismic earthquake wavefields observed on the Ross Ice Shelf. Journal of Glaciology, 67(261), (2021): 58-74, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.83.
    Description: Observations of teleseismic earthquakes using broadband seismometers on the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) must contend with environmental and structural processes that do not exist for land-sited seismometers. Important considerations are: (1) a broadband, multi-mode ambient wavefield excited by ocean gravity wave interactions with the ice shelf; (2) body wave reverberations produced by seismic impedance contrasts at the ice/water and water/seafloor interfaces and (3) decoupling of the solid Earth horizontal wavefield by the sub-shelf water column. We analyze seasonal and geographic variations in signal-to-noise ratios for teleseismic P-wave (0.5–2.0 s), S-wave (10–15 s) and surface wave (13–25 s) arrivals relative to the RIS noise field. We use ice and water layer reverberations generated by teleseismic P-waves to accurately estimate the sub-station thicknesses of these layers. We present observations consistent with the theoretically predicted transition of the water column from compressible to incompressible mechanics, relevant for vertically incident solid Earth waves with periods longer than 3 s. Finally, we observe symmetric-mode Lamb waves generated by teleseismic S-waves incident on the grounding zones. Despite their complexity, we conclude that teleseismic coda can be utilized for passive imaging of sub-shelf Earth structure, although longer deployments relative to conventional land-sited seismometers will be necessary to acquire adequate data.
    Description: This research was supported by NSF grants PLR-1142518, 1141916, 1142126, 1246151, 1246416 and OPP-1744852 and 1744856.
    Keywords: Glacier geophysics ; Ice shelves ; Seismology
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Tison, J.-L., Maksym, T., Fraser, A. D., Corkill, M., Kimura, N., Nosaka, Y., Nomura, D., Vancoppenolle, M., Ackley, S., Stammerjohn, S., Wauthy, S., Van der Linden, F., Carnat, G., Sapart, C., de Jong, J., Fripiat, F., & Delille, B. Physical and biological properties of early winter Antarctic sea ice in the Ross Sea. Annals of Glaciology, 61(83), (2020): 241–259, https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2020.43.
    Description: This work presents the results of physical and biological investigations at 27 biogeochemical stations of early winter sea ice in the Ross Sea during the 2017 PIPERS cruise. Only two similar cruises occurred in the past, in 1995 and 1998. The year 2017 was a specific year, in that ice growth in the Central Ross Sea was considerably delayed, compared to previous years. These conditions resulted in lower ice thicknesses and Chl-a burdens, as compared to those observed during the previous cruises. It also resulted in a different structure of the sympagic algal community, unusually dominated by Phaeocystis rather than diatoms. Compared to autumn-winter sea ice in the Weddell Sea (AWECS cruise), the 2017 Ross Sea pack ice displayed similar thickness distribution, but much lower snow cover and therefore nearly no flooding conditions. It is shown that contrasted dynamics of autumnal-winter sea-ice growth between the Weddell Sea and the Ross Sea impacted the development of the sympagic community. Mean/median ice Chl-a concentrations were 3–5 times lower at PIPERS, and the community status there appeared to be more mature (decaying?), based on Phaeopigments/Chl-a ratios. These contrasts are discussed in the light of temporal and spatial differences between the two cruises.
    Description: S. Stammerjohn was supported by the PIPERS and LTER Programs of the U.S. National Science Foundation, ANT-1341606 (S. Stammerjohn and J. Cassano, U Colorado) and ANT-0823101 (H. Ducklow, LDEO/Columbia University), respectively. Steve Ackley (UTSA) was supported by the PIPERS program of the U.S. National Science Foundation ANT-1341717 and by NASA Grant 80NSSC19M0194 to the Center for Adv. Meas. in Extreme Environments at UTSA.Ted Maksym (WHOI) was supported by the PIPERS program of the U.S. National Science Foundation ANT-1341513. This research was supported by the Belgian F.R.S-FNRS (project ISOGGAP and IODIne, contract T.0268.16 and J.0262.17, respectively). Fanny Van der Linden, Sarah Wauthy, Gauthier Carnat, Célia Sapart and Bruno Delille are PhD students, postdoctoral researchers and research associate, respectively, of the Belgian F.R.S.-FNRS. This work was also supported by the Australian Government's Cooperative Research Centre program through the Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, and by the Australian Research Council's Special Research Initiative for Antarctic Gateway Partnership (Project ID SR140300001). Daiki Nomura was supported by grants from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (#17H04715) and the National Institute for Polar Research through Project Research KP-303 (ROBOTICA) and #28-14.
    Keywords: Antarctic glaciology ; biogeochemistry ; sea ice
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Roberts, Mark L., Elder, Kathryn L., Jenkins, William J., Gagnon, Alan R., Xu, Li, Hlavenka, Joshua D., & Longworth, Brett E. C-14 Blank Corrections for 25-100 mu G samples at the National Ocean Sciences AMS Laboratory. Radiocarbon, 61(5), (2019): 1403-1411, Doi: 10.1017/RDC.2019.74.
    Description: Replicate radiocarbon (14C) measurements of organic and inorganic control samples, with known Fraction Modern values in the range Fm = 0–1.5 and mass range 6 μg–2 mg carbon, are used to determine both the mass and radiocarbon content of the blank carbon introduced during sample processing and measurement in our laboratory. These data are used to model, separately for organic and inorganic samples, the blank contribution and subsequently “blank correct” measured unknowns in the mass range 25–100 μg. Data, formulas, and an assessment of the precision and accuracy of the blank correction are presented.
    Description: This work is supported by a Cooperative Agreement (OCE-1755125) with the U.S. National Science Foundation.
    Keywords: AMS ; AMS dating ; Blank corrections
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Baker, M. G., Aster, R. C., Anthony, R. E., Chaput, J., Wiens, D. A., Nyblade, A., Bromirski, P. D., Gerstoft, P., & Stephen, R. A. Seasonal and spatial variations in the ocean-coupled ambient wavefield of the Ross Ice Shelf. Journal of Glaciology, 65(254), (2019): 912-925, doi:10.1017/jog.2019.64.
    Description: The Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) is host to a broadband, multimode seismic wavefield that is excited in response to atmospheric, oceanic and solid Earth source processes. A 34-station broadband seismographic network installed on the RIS from late 2014 through early 2017 produced continuous vibrational observations of Earth's largest ice shelf at both floating and grounded locations. We characterize temporal and spatial variations in broadband ambient wavefield power, with a focus on period bands associated with primary (10–20 s) and secondary (5–10 s) microseism signals, and an oceanic source process near the ice front (0.4–4.0 s). Horizontal component signals on floating stations overwhelmingly reflect oceanic excitations year-round due to near-complete isolation from solid Earth shear waves. The spectrum at all periods is shown to be strongly modulated by the concentration of sea ice near the ice shelf front. Contiguous and extensive sea ice damps ocean wave coupling sufficiently so that wintertime background levels can approach or surpass those of land-sited stations in Antarctica.
    Description: This research was supported by NSF grants PLR-1142518, 1141916, 1142126, 1246151 and 1246416. JC was additionally supported by Yates funds in the Colorado State University Department of Mathematics. PDB also received support from the California Department of Parks and Recreation, Division of Boating and Waterways under contract 11-106-107. We thank Reinhard Flick and Patrick Shore for their support during field work, Tom Bolmer in locating stations and preparing maps, and the US Antarctic Program for logistical support. The seismic instruments were provided by the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) through the PASSCAL Instrument Center at New Mexico Tech. Data collected are available through the IRIS Data Management Center under RIS and DRIS network code XH. The PSD-PDFs presented in this study were processed with the IRIS Noise Tool Kit (Bahavar and others, 2013). The facilities of the IRIS Consortium are supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement EAR-1261681 and the DOE National Nuclear Security Administration. The authors appreciate the support of the University of Wisconsin-Madison Automatic Weather Station Program for the data set, data display and information; funded under NSF grant number ANT-1543305. The Ross Ice Shelf profiles were generated using the Antarctic Mapping Tools (Greene and others, 2017). Regional maps were generated with the Generic Mapping Tools (Wessel and Smith, 1998). Topography and bathymetry data for all maps in this study were sourced from the National Geophysical Data Center ETOPO1 Global Relief Model (doi:10.7289/V5C8276M). We thank two anonymous reviewers for suggestions on the scope and organization of this paper.
    Keywords: Antarctic glaciology ; Ice shelves ; Seismology
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2022-10-21
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ackley, S. F., Stammerjohn, S., Maksym, T., Smith, M., Cassano, J., Guest, P., Tison, J., Delille, B., Loose, B., Sedwick, P., DePace, L., Roach, L., & Parno, J. Sea-ice production and air/ice/ocean/biogeochemistry interactions in the Ross Sea during the PIPERS 2017 autumn field campaign. Annals of Glaciology, 61(82), (2020): 181-195, doi:10.1017/aog.2020.31.
    Description: The Ross Sea is known for showing the greatest sea-ice increase, as observed globally, particularly from 1979 to 2015. However, corresponding changes in sea-ice thickness and production in the Ross Sea are not known, nor how these changes have impacted water masses, carbon fluxes, biogeochemical processes and availability of micronutrients. The PIPERS project sought to address these questions during an autumn ship campaign in 2017 and two spring airborne campaigns in 2016 and 2017. PIPERS used a multidisciplinary approach of manned and autonomous platforms to study the coupled air/ice/ocean/biogeochemical interactions during autumn and related those to spring conditions. Unexpectedly, the Ross Sea experienced record low sea ice in spring 2016 and autumn 2017. The delayed ice advance in 2017 contributed to (1) increased ice production and export in coastal polynyas, (2) thinner snow and ice cover in the central pack, (3) lower sea-ice Chl-a burdens and differences in sympagic communities, (4) sustained ocean heat flux delaying ice thickening and (5) a melting, anomalously southward ice edge persisting into winter. Despite these impacts, airborne observations in spring 2017 suggest that winter ice production over the continental shelf was likely not anomalous.
    Description: NSF supported PIPERS award numbers: ANT-1341717 (S.F. Ackley, UTSA); ANT-1341513 (E. Maksym, WHOI); ANT-1341606 (S. Stammerjohn and J. Cassano, U Colorado); ANT-1341725 (P. Guest, NPS). P. Sedwick was supported by NSF ANT-1543483. S.F. Ackley was also supported by NASA Grant 80NSSC19M0194 to the Center for Advanced Measurements in Extreme Environments at UTSA. S. Stammerjohn was also supported by the LTER Program under NFS award number ANT-0823101 (H. Ducklow, LDEO/Columbia University). Additional support was by the Belgian F.R.S-FNRS (project ISOGGAP and IODIne, contract T.0268.16 and J.0262.17, respectively). Bruno Delille is a research associate of the F.R.S.-FNRS. Terra-Sar-X quicklook imagery was coordinated by Kathrin Hoeppner at DLR, and Andy Archer (with the Antarctic Support Contractor) provided selected (cloud-free) MODIS scenes and daily maps of AMSR2 sea-ice concentration.
    Keywords: Atmosphere/ice/ocean interactions ; Ice/ocean interactions ; Sea ice ; Sea-ice growth and decay
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Hughen, K. A., & Heaton, T. J. Updated Cariaco Basin C-14 calibration dataset from 0-60 cal kyr BP. Radiocarbon, 62(4), (2020): 1001-1043, doi:10.1017/RDC.2020.53.
    Description: We present new updates to the calendar and radiocarbon (14C) chronologies for the Cariaco Basin, Venezuela. Calendar ages were generated by tuning abrupt climate shifts in Cariaco Basin sediments to those in speleothems from Hulu Cave. After the original Cariaco-Hulu calendar age model was published, Hulu Cave δ18O records have been augmented with increased temporal resolution and a greater number of U/Th dates. These updated Hulu Cave records provide increased accuracy as well as precision in the final Cariaco calendar age model. The depth scale for the Ocean Drilling Program Site 1002D sediment core, the primary source of samples for 14C dating, has been corrected to account for missing sediment from a core break, eliminating age-depth anomalies that afflicted the earlier calendar age models. Individual 14C dates for the Cariaco Basin remain unchanged from previous papers, although detailed comparisons of the Cariaco calibration dataset to those from Hulu Cave and Lake Suigetsu suggest that the Cariaco marine reservoir age may have shifted systematically during the past. We describe these recent changes to the Cariaco datasets and provide the data in a comprehensive format that will facilitate use by the community.
    Description: K.A. Hughen was supported by funds from U.S. NSF grant #OCE-1657191, and by the Investment in Science Fund at WHOI. T.J. Heaton is supported by a Leverhulme Trust Fellowship RF-2019-140\9, “Improving the Measurement of Time Using Radiocarbon”.
    Keywords: Calibration ; Climate ; Radiocarbon
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    Publication Date: 2022-10-20
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ackley, S. F., Perovich, D. K., Maksym, T., Weissling, B., & Xie, H. Surface flooding of Antarctic summer sea ice. Annals of Glaciology, 61(82), (2020): 117-126, doi:10.1017/aog.2020.22.
    Description: The surface flooding of Antarctic sea ice in summer covers 50% or more of the sea-ice area in the major summer ice packs, the western Weddell and the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Seas. Two CRREL ice mass-balance buoys were deployed on the Amundsen Sea pack in late December 2010 from the icebreaker Oden, bridging the summer period (January–February 2011). Temperature records from thermistors embedded vertically in the snow and ice showed progressive increases in the depth of the flooded layer (up to 0.3–0.35 m) on the ice cover during January and February. While the snow depth was relatively unchanged from accumulation (〈10 cm), ice thickness decreased by up to a meter from bottom melting during this period. Contemporaneous with the high bottom melting, under-ice water temperatures up to 1°C above the freezing point were found. The high temperature arises from solar heating of the upper mixed layer which can occur when ice concentration in the local area falls and lower albedo ocean water is exposed to radiative heating. The higher proportion of snow ice found in the Amundsen Sea pack ice therefore results from both winter snowfall and summer ice bottom melt found here that can lead to extensive surface flooding.
    Description: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation grant to UTSA, ANT-0839053-Sea Ice System in Antarctic Summer (S.F. Ackley, H. Xie and B. Weissling), and to WHOI, ANT-1341513 (T. Maksym), and by the NASA Center for Advanced Measurements in Extreme Environments or NASA-CAMEE at UTSA, NASA #80NSSC19M0194 (S.F. Ackley, H. Xie, B.Weissling).
    Keywords: Ice/ocean interactions ; Sea ice ; Sea-ice growth and decay ; Snow/ice surface processes
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    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Reimer, P. J., Austin, W. E. N., Bard, E., Bayliss, A., Blackwell, P. G., Ramsey, C. B., Butzin, M., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., Friedrich, M., Grootes, P. M., Guilderson, T. P., Hajdas, I., Heaton, T. J., Hogg, A. G., Hughen, K. A., Kromer, B., Manning, S. W., Muscheler, R., Palmer, J. G., Pearson, C., van der Plicht, J., Reimer, R. W., Richards, D. A., Scott, E. M., Southon, J. R., Turney, C. S. M., Wacker, L., Adolphi, F., Buentgen, U., Capano, M., Fahrni, S. M., Fogtmann-Schulz, A., Friedrich, R., Koehler, P., Kudsk, S., Miyake, F., Olsen, J., Reinig, F., Sakamoto, M., Sookdeo, A., & Talamo, S. The Intcal20 Northern Hemisphere radiocarbon age calibration curve (0-55 cal kBP). Radiocarbon, 62(4), (2020): 725-757, doi:10.1017/RDC.2020.41.
    Description: Radiocarbon (14C) ages cannot provide absolutely dated chronologies for archaeological or paleoenvironmental studies directly but must be converted to calendar age equivalents using a calibration curve compensating for fluctuations in atmospheric 14C concentration. Although calibration curves are constructed from independently dated archives, they invariably require revision as new data become available and our understanding of the Earth system improves. In this volume the international 14C calibration curves for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as for the ocean surface layer, have been updated to include a wealth of new data and extended to 55,000 cal BP. Based on tree rings, IntCal20 now extends as a fully atmospheric record to ca. 13,900 cal BP. For the older part of the timescale, IntCal20 comprises statistically integrated evidence from floating tree-ring chronologies, lacustrine and marine sediments, speleothems, and corals. We utilized improved evaluation of the timescales and location variable 14C offsets from the atmosphere (reservoir age, dead carbon fraction) for each dataset. New statistical methods have refined the structure of the calibration curves while maintaining a robust treatment of uncertainties in the 14C ages, the calendar ages and other corrections. The inclusion of modeled marine reservoir ages derived from a three-dimensional ocean circulation model has allowed us to apply more appropriate reservoir corrections to the marine 14C data rather than the previous use of constant regional offsets from the atmosphere. Here we provide an overview of the new and revised datasets and the associated methods used for the construction of the IntCal20 curve and explore potential regional offsets for tree-ring data. We discuss the main differences with respect to the previous calibration curve, IntCal13, and some of the implications for archaeology and geosciences ranging from the recent past to the time of the extinction of the Neanderthals.
    Description: We would like to thank the National Natural Science Foundation of China grants NSFC 41888101 and NSFC 41731174, the 111 program of China (D19002), U.S. NSF Grant 1702816, and the Malcolm H. Wiener Foundation for support for research that contributed to the IntCal20 curve. The work on the Swiss and German YD trees was funded by the German Science foundation and the Swiss National Foundation (grant number: 200021L_157187). The operation in Aix-en-Provence is funded by the EQUIPEX ASTER-CEREGE, the Collège de France and the ANR project CARBOTRYDH (to EB). The work on the correlation of tree ring 14C with ice core 10Be was partially supported by the Swedish Research Council and the Knut and Alice Wallenberg foundation. M. Butzin was supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) as Research for Sustainable Development (FONA; http://www.fona.de) through the PalMod project (grant number: 01LP1505B). S. Talamo and M. Friedrich are funded by the European Research Council under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (grant agreement No. 803147-RESOLUTION, awarded to ST). CA. Turney would like to acknowledge support of the Australian Research Council (FL100100195 and DP170104665). P. Reimer and W. Austin acknowledge the support of the UKRI Natural Environment Research Council (Grant NE/M004619/1). T.J. Heaton is supported by a Leverhulme Trust Fellowship RF-2019-140\9. Other datasets and the IntCal20 database were created without external support through internal funding by the respective laboratories. We also would like to thank various institutions that provided funding or facilities for meetings.
    Keywords: Calibration curve ; Radiocarbon ; IntCal20
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Heaton, T. J., Koehler, P., Butzin, M., Bard, E., Reimer, R. W., Austin, W. E. N., Ramsey, C. B., Grootes, P. M., Hughen, K. A., Kromer, B., Reimer, P. J., Adkins, J., Burke, A., Cook, M. S., Olsen, J., & Skinner, L. C. Marine20-the marine radiocarbon age calibration curve (0-55,000 cal BP). Radiocarbon, 62(4), (2020): 779-820, doi:10.1017/RDC.2020.68.
    Description: The concentration of radiocarbon (14C) differs between ocean and atmosphere. Radiocarbon determinations from samples which obtained their 14C in the marine environment therefore need a marine-specific calibration curve and cannot be calibrated directly against the atmospheric-based IntCal20 curve. This paper presents Marine20, an update to the internationally agreed marine radiocarbon age calibration curve that provides a non-polar global-average marine record of radiocarbon from 0–55 cal kBP and serves as a baseline for regional oceanic variation. Marine20 is intended for calibration of marine radiocarbon samples from non-polar regions; it is not suitable for calibration in polar regions where variability in sea ice extent, ocean upwelling and air-sea gas exchange may have caused larger changes to concentrations of marine radiocarbon. The Marine20 curve is based upon 500 simulations with an ocean/atmosphere/biosphere box-model of the global carbon cycle that has been forced by posterior realizations of our Northern Hemispheric atmospheric IntCal20 14C curve and reconstructed changes in CO2 obtained from ice core data. These forcings enable us to incorporate carbon cycle dynamics and temporal changes in the atmospheric 14C level. The box-model simulations of the global-average marine radiocarbon reservoir age are similar to those of a more complex three-dimensional ocean general circulation model. However, simplicity and speed of the box model allow us to use a Monte Carlo approach to rigorously propagate the uncertainty in both the historic concentration of atmospheric 14C and other key parameters of the carbon cycle through to our final Marine20 calibration curve. This robust propagation of uncertainty is fundamental to providing reliable precision for the radiocarbon age calibration of marine based samples. We make a first step towards deconvolving the contributions of different processes to the total uncertainty; discuss the main differences of Marine20 from the previous age calibration curve Marine13; and identify the limitations of our approach together with key areas for further work. The updated values for ΔR, the regional marine radiocarbon reservoir age corrections required to calibrate against Marine20, can be found at the data base http://calib.org/marine/.
    Description: We would like to thank Jeremy Oakley and Richard Bintanja for informative discussions during the development of this work. T.J. Heaton is supported by a Leverhulme Trust Fellowship RF-2019-140\9, “Improving the Measurement of Time Using Radiocarbon”. M Butzin is supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), as Research for Sustainability initiative (FONA); www.fona.de through the PalMod project (grant numbers: 01LP1505B, 01LP1919A). E. Bard is supported by EQUIPEX ASTER-CEREGE and ANR CARBOTRYDH. Meetings of the IntCal Marine Focus group have been supported by Collège de France. Data are available on the PANGAEA database at doi:10.159/ANGAEA.914500.
    Keywords: Bayesian modeling ; calibration ; carbon cycle ; computer model ; marine environment
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    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 1-2 
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    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 1-4 
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    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 19-30 
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    Notes: Consider how your consumption would change if you were stranded on a deserted island. Isolation would eliminate all social influences on your consumption decisions, even for the same choice set. You might decide not to consume cosmetics, curtains, or neckties, and pay less attention to the style or color of your clothes, car, or furniture. These choices might not matter as much to you anymore, for you would not have to consider the reactions of other individuals to your consumption. Similarly, isolation would also eliminate social influences on your speech. Absent an audience, your choice of words would not be subject to the judgments of others.
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    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 1-17 
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    Notes: This essay argues in favor of retaining the positive/normative distinction in economics, in spite of developments in methodology and epistemology that have cast doubt on the possibility of a “value-free” economics. The central claim is that it is worthwhile to distinguish between positive economic analysis and normative judgments, even if economics is viewed as being permeated with ethical values. This argument is presented without trying either to demonstrate that there is (or is not) a profound epistemological difference between science and ethics or to show that positive science can (or cannot) afford us access to objective reality.
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    Notes: The concept of fairness as mutual advantage has been developed in the tradition of social contract theory. In this framework society is seen as an enterprise that coordinates the activities of its members in order to advance their interests. All acceptable social rules are in the interest of each member of society. Rules are agreed unanimously – no rules can be enforced against the interest of someone. It is assumed that individuals are basically self-interested and rational. Radical libertarianism claims that individuals do not have to accept any a priori constraints on their behavior. “Libertarianism focuses on negative freedom” (Schokkaert, 1992, p. 89).
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    Notes: Postmodernism is often characterized, among other things, as the belief in the unattainability of objective truth and as a rejection of teleological and reductionist, or essentialist, forms of thought. For instance, in his provocative book The Rhetoric of Economics (1985), Donald McCloskey sketches the implications for economic methodology of Richard Rorty's (1979) rejection of the modernist quest for Truth, as represented by various rationalist and empiricist epistemologies. McCloskey describes modernist methodology as displaying a desire to predict and control, a search for objective–;which often means measurable–;knowledge, and an attempt to develop a value-free inquiry, among other characteristics (McCloskey, 1985, pp. 7-8). This “methodological correctness,” McCloske suggests, is discredited by the postmodern dissatisfaction with traditional epistemology. Thus, in place of the modernist belief in a rule-guided path to truth, he advocates a “free market” approach to knowledge, in which participants in the variety of theoretical conversations agree to be earnest and listen politely to one another.
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    Notes: I carved a massive cake of beeswax into bits and rolled them in my hands until they softened ... Going forward I carried wax along the line, and laid it thick on their ears. They tied me up, then, plumb amidships, back to the mast, lashed to the mast, and took themselves again to rowing. Soon, as we came smartly within hailing distance, the two Sirens, noting our fast ship off their point, made ready, and they sang ... The lovely voices in ardor appealing over the water made me crave to listen, and I tried to say ‘Untie me!’ to the crew, jerking my brows; but they bent steady to the oars. (Homer, c. –900, pp. 227–28)
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    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 115-117 
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    Notes: At lunch one day a colleague and I had a friendly argument over occupational licensing. I attacked it for being anticompetitive, arguing that licensing boards raise occupational incomes by restricting entry, advertising, and commercialization. My colleague, while acknowledging anticompetitive aspects, affirmed the need for licensing on the grounds of protecting the consumer from frauds and quacks. In many areas of infrequent and specialized dealing, consumers are not able, ex ante or even ex post, to evaluate competence. I countered by suggesting voluntary means by which reputational problems might be handled and by returning to the offensive. I said that in fact the impetus for licensing usually comes from the practitioners, not their customers, and that licensing boards seldom devote their time to ferreting out incompetence but rather simply to prosecuting unlicensed practitioners. I mentioned cross-sectional findings, such as those on state licensure, prices, and occupational incomes. Overall, I characterized the professional establishment as a group of dastardly operators, who set the standards, write the codes, and enforce behavior to enhance their own material wellbeing - in brief, as venal rent-seekers.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 514-551 
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    Notes: A vector autoregressive (VAR) model is specified with equation system parameters, which directly reflect the possible cointegrating nature of the analyzed time series. By using a flat/diffuse prior, we show that the marginal posteriors of the parameters of interest (multipliers of the cointegrating vectors) may be nonintegrable and favor difference stationary models in an undesired way. To choose between stationary, cointegrated, and difference stationary models in a meaningful way, the Jeffreys prior principle is used. We investigate the sensitivity of the posterior results with respect to the construction of the Jeffreys prior. In this context, we also analyze the effect of fixed and stochastic initial values. The theoretical results are illustrated by using a VAR model for shortand long–term interest rates in the United States.
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    Notes: By appropriately partitioning the joint hypothesis of weak exogeneity and the maintained overidentifying restrictions in the linear dynamic simultaneous equations model and showing that the component subhypotheses are separable, asymptotically optimal tests for the weak exogeneity hypothesis may be constructed using limited information statistics. A necessary and sufficient condition for the separability of parametric hypotheses of the mixed implicit function and constraint equation type is derived which generalizes conditions previously obtained in the literature. Consequently, limited and full information procedures for testing the weak exogeneity hypothesis are asymptotically equivalent. The impact of these results for testing strong exogeneity in the linear dynamic simultaneous equations model is also explored.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 116-129 
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    Notes: When values of regressors are symmetrically disposed, many M-estimators in a wide class of models have a reflection property, namely, that as the signs of the coefficients on regressors are reversed, their estimators' sampling distribution is reflected about the origin. When the coefficients are zero, sign reversal can have no effect. So in this case, the sampling distribution of regression coefficient estimators is symmetric about zero, the estimators are median unbiased and, when moments exist, the estimators are exactly uncorrelated with estimators of other parameters. The result is unusual in that it does not require response variates to have symmetric conditional distributions. It demonstrates the potential importance of covariate design in determining the distributions of estimators, and it is useful in designing and interpreting Monte Carlo experiments. The result is illustrated by a Monte Carlo experiment in which maximum likelihood and symmetrically censored least-squares estimators are calculated for small samples from a censored normal linear regression, Tobit, model.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 774-808 
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    Notes: The Kalman filter is used to derive updating equations for the Bayesian data density in discrete time linear regression models with stochastic regressors. The implied “Bayes model” has time varying parameters and conditionally heterogeneous error variances. A σ-finite Bayes model measure is given and used to produce a new-model-selection criterion (PIC) and objective posterior odds tests for sharp null hypotheses like the presence of a unit root. This extends earlier work by Phillips and Ploberger [18]. Autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) models are considered, and a general test of trend-stationarity versus difference stationarity is developed in ARMA models that allow for automatic order selection of the stochastic regressors and the degree of the deterministic trend. The tests are completely consistent in that both type I and type II errors tend to zero as the sample size tends to infinity. Simulation results and an empirical application are reported. The simulations show that the PIC works very well and is generally superior to the Schwarz BIC criterion, even in stationary systems. Empirical application of our methods to the Nelson-Plosser [11] series show that three series (unemployment, industrial production, and the money stock) are level- or trend-stationary. The other eleven series are found to be stochastically nonstationary.
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    Notes: This paper investigates the sampling behavior of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of the Gaussian GARCH(1,1) model. The rescaled variable (the ratio of the disturbance to the conditional standard deviation) is not required to be Gaussian nor independent over time, in contrast to the current literature. The GARCH process may be integrated (α + β = 1), or even mildly explosive (α + β 〉 1). A bounded conditional fourth moment of the rescaled variable is sufficient for the results. Consistent estimation and asymptotic normality are demonstrated, as well as consistent estimation of the asymptotic covariance matrix.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 91-115 
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    Notes: This paper proposes a residual-based test of the null of cointegration using a structural single equation model. It is shown that the limiting distribution of the test statistic for cointegration can be made free of nuisance parameters when the cointegrating relation is efficiently estimated. The limiting distributions are given in terms of a mixture of a Brownian bridge and vector Brownian motion. It is also shown that this test is consistent. Critical values are given for standard, demeaned, and detrended cases. Combining results from our test for cointegration with results from the Phillips-Ouliaris test for no cointegration, we find that there is evidence of cointegration between real consumption and real disposable income over the postwar period.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 130-139 
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: In this paper, we derive an instrumental variables estimator for the generalized Hausman and Taylor [4] model with a two-way error component. We also extend the work of Breusch, Mizon, and Schmidt [2] to this model and derive two additional instrumental variables estimators. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the parameter estimator is demonstrated, allowing both the number of time periods as well as the number of individuals to increase, their ratio bounded. Consistent estimates of the variance components are discussed.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 221-222 
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 1-2 
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    Topics: Ethnic Sciences , History , Political Science , Economics
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 1-11 
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 833-874 
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    Notes: The vital importance of the Indian Army as the guardian of the imperial order in India was never more evident than during the interwar years. The period from 1919 to the outbreak of the Second World War in 1939 was a testing time for the Raj; state authority was being challenged by a mounting nationalist movement, and public order was frequently disrupted by civil disobedience campaigns, as well as recurrent outbreaks of communal violence. In maintaining public order the colonial state had always been prepared to rely on that ultimate guarantee of its authority and power–the Indian Army. However, in frequent discussions of the deployment of the military in 'aid of civil power', the continued loyalty of the bulk of the army the Indian soldiers and officers, was never questioned, and seemed to be taken for granted.2 Yet, both the Government of India and the to be taken for granted.2 Yet, both the Government of India and the Army Headquarters were well awar that the 'loyalty' of the Army could never be guaranteed, and that it was conditional upon a stable and pacified recruiting base; if that base were to be 'subverted', then the Indian Army, or portions of it, would not only cease to be of use as an instrument of state power, but could ultimately pose a threat to the Raj itself
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 1-11 
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 475-502 
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    Notes: In the late 1960s and early 1970s, the Sino-Soviet conflict intensified and at the same time the Sino-American rapprochement was well under way. When the Americans began to search for an answer to the question of ‘Why Vietnam’, some US foreign relation documents in the later 1940s were released, which indicated that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) had made certain friendly overtures toward the United States. Since then, it has become a widely-accepted interpretation among scholars that Washington ‘lost a chance’ to win over the CCP from Moscow in the late 1940s. The fundamental premise of this interpretation is that the CCP earnestly bid for American friendship and support as a counterweight to pressure from the Soviet Union. It is argued that the CCP sincerely sought the US recognition right up to the middle of and that it was only after their bids for American support were rejected by Washington that the Communists had to choose the ‘lean-to-one-side’ policy. In short, Washington's shortsighted policy in 1949 ‘forced Beijing into Moscow's embrace’, and therefore set in motion a train of disastrous events: the Korean War and the Vietnam War. A promising postwar Asian balance in favour of the US was ruined.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 615-647 
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    Notes: A puzzling feature of interwar Anglo-Indian economic relations is the contrast between Whitehall's relatively hands-off attitude to Indian tariff policies, and its insistent hands-on approach to monetary policy issues in the colony. Both sets of issues were, at various times, equally contentious. But while Britain's strategic objectives in India paved the way for the Fiscal Autonomy Convention, the road towards a similar monetary ‘convention’ was never taken. Rather, thanks to Britain's external financial problems, the interwar decades saw initially a tightening, and later a refinement, of London's control over Indian monetary policies. This paper hopes to set out the processes at work more clearly than has been attempted before, and to account for them. The interpretation offered here is consistent with the ‘gentlemanly capitalism’ explanation of British imperialism during the interwar years, and of the postwar de-colonization process.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 673-737 
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    Notes: Some write because they travel, and some travel because they write. A large number of progessional writers, not just travel-writers, have derived inspiration from travel: equally, a large number of travellers, who are not professional writers, have nevertheless often felt compelled to encapsulate their experience in literary form. It is the aim of this paper to survey such British travel literature relating to Southeast Asia during the period of massive transformation dating approximately from the ‘20S to the ’ 50S of this century. It is not intended to be comprehensive, but representative of the major landmarks of that literature along with some lesser-known works of particular interest.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 875-889 
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    Notes: Most studies have concentrated on the Muslim League's political activities and objectives. It is generally believed that it lacked a distinctive economic programme and unequivocally favoured private enterprise. The radical economic ideas produced by its Punjab and Bengal branches are attributed to a handful of activists who received short shrift from the High Command. The League's stance is thus contrasted with the Congress which addressed economic issues from a largely Socialist perpective.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 533-556 
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    Notes: Writing to John Morley, the Secretary of State for India, a few days after the first terrorist bomb was thrown by a Bengali, the Viceroy Lord Minto declared that the conspirators aimed ‘at the furtherance of murderous methods hitherto unknown in India which have been imported from the West, and which the imitative Bengali has childishly accepted’.This notion later was taken up and developed by Times correspondent Valentine Chirol, who wrote that Bengalis had ‘of all Indians been the most slavish imitators of the West, as represented, at any rate, by the Irish Fenian and the Russian anarchist’. Chirol went on to say that ‘European works on various periods of revolutionary history figure almost invariably amongst seizures of a far more compromising character whenever the Indian police raids some centre of Nationalist activity.’ This indicated that Bengali revolutionary terrorism was simply a takeoff on the European variety. The only indigenous element in it was the dangerous infusion of Hindu religious fanaticism.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 216-217 
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 589-614 
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    Notes: Few books are exemplars of real hard work sustained over a lengthy period of time as is John Smith's The Epic of Pabuji(1991). Starting his investigation of the scroll of cloth painting in 1973, a huge structure measuring fifteen feet by four, locally termed par, before which this epic is sung by a special caste of people, lower in hierarchy, called Naik Bhopa, Smith in a span of eighteen years has accomplished a work of lasting stay in the ethnographic tradition of south Asia as well as the discipline of folklore in general. Before this book was published, he had also contributed some important papers (in 1986 and 1989) on Pabu-ji. As far as I know, it is rare that Sanskritists, which Smith is at Cambridge, pay attention to ‘popular (or “non-Sanskritic”) traditions’ of people, and if at all they do, introducing the anthropological method of fieldwork in their study, their works are still laden with Indological references and scholarship where the actual voice of people is lost in oblivion or relegated to the back seat. But it does not happen with Smith; he is not only committed to listening to people's voice in its own right and place, but also provides a fair, up to date, and scholarly account of Pabu-ji's story and its role and niche in the local culture of Rajasthan. Therefore, his work is also of considerable interest to anthropologists, especially those working on the sociology of cult, popular religion, and non- literate traditions and their meanings.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 1-2 
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 439-447 
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 461-482 
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Various approaches to the development of a noninformative prior for the AR(1) model are considered and compared. Particular attention is given to the reference prior approach, which seems to work well for the stationary case but encounters difficulties in the explosive case. A symmetrized (proper) version of the stationary reference prior is ultimately recommended for the problem. Bayesian testing of the unit root, stationary, and explosive hypotheses is considered also. Bounds on the Bayes factors are developed and shown to yield answers that appear to conflict with classical tests.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 579-595 
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    Notes: Two issues have come up in the specification of a prior in the Bayesian analysis of time series with possible unit roots. The first issue deals with the singularity that is due to the local identification problem of the unconditional mean of an AR(1) process in the limit of a random walk. This singularity problem is related to the difference between a structural parameterization and the linear reduced form in a standard regression model with fixed regressors. The second is related to the time series nature of the regressor in an AR(1) model. In this paper we will concentrate on the parameterization issue. First, it is shown that the posterior of the autoregressive parameter can be very sensitive to the degree of prior dependence between the unconditional mean and the autocorrelation parameter. Second, the time series nature of the problem suggests a particular form of this dependence.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 483-513 
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    Notes: A model is suggested to forecast economic time series. This model incorporates some innovative ideas of Harrison and Stevens [20] for building into the forecasting process important external shocks to the systems. Thus the occurrence of possibly significant real-world events may cause a fundamental change in the time series in question. The Jeffreys-Savage (JS) Bayesian theory of hypothesis testing is used to test the hypothesis that a particular event has been such as to free the series from its immediate past behavior. When the event frees the series in this way, then we model the sequence of observations following such an event (until the next such event) as an exchangeable sequence. In the simplest case of 0–1 valued data, such as in recording the ups and downs of the value of a particular commodity or stock, our alternative hypothesis is a Pólya process, and the null hypothesis is a simple random walk (unit roots model) with p = .50. Any exchangeable sequence is strictly stationary, and the observations in the Polya process are positively correlated, which can give rise to “explosive” behavior of the series at isolated time points. We then use the JS theory to predict future observations by taking a weighted average of the optimal predictions for each model, with weights given by the posterior probabilities of the hypotheses. Results of simulation studies are presented which compare the predictive performance of the fully Bayesian method based upon the JS theory with those based upon the “p-value” or pre-test method. The de Finetti method for scoring predictions is used to assess their empirical performance. A theoretical methodology, which extends the “evaluation game” of Hill [28,37], is developed for comparing predictors.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 917-936 
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    Notes: This paper considers the unit root tests in models with structural change. Particular attention is given to their dependency on the limiting ratios of the subsample sizes between breaks. The dependency is analyzed in detail, and the invariant testing procedure based on a transformed model is developed. The required transformation is essentially identical to the generalized least-squares correction for heteroskedasticity. The limiting distributions of the new tests do not depend on the relative sizes of the subsamples and are shown to be simple mixtures of the limiting distributions of the corresponding tests from the independent unit root models without structural change.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 968-969 
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 969-969 
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 971-976 
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 286-315 
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    Notes: This paper proposes a new approach to modeling heteroskedastidty which enables the modeler to utilize information conveyed by data plots in making informed decisions on the form and structure of heteroskedasticity. It extends the well-known normal/linear/homoskedastic models to a family of non-normal/linear/heteroskedastic models. The non-normality is kept within the bounds of the elliptically symmetric family of multivariate distributions (and in particular the Student's t distribution) that lead to several forms of heteroskedasticity, including quadratic and exponential functions of the conditioning variables. The choice of the latter family is motivated by the fact that it enables us to model some of the main sources of heteroskedasticity: “thicktails,” individual heterogeneity, and nonlinear dependence. A common feature of the proposed class of regression models is that the weak exogeneity assumption is inappropriate. The estimation of these models, without the weak exogeneity assumption, is discussed, and the results are illustrated by using cross-section data on charitable contributions.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 316-356 
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Let F denote a distribution function defined on the probability space (Ω,[...],P), which is absolutely continuous with respect to the Lebesgue measure in Rd with probability density function f. Let f0(·,β) be a parametric density function that depends on an unknown p × 1 vector β. In this paper, we consider tests of the goodness-of-fit of f0(·,β) for f(·) for some β based on (i) the integrated squared difference between a kernel estimate of f(·) and the quasimaximum likelihood estimate of f0(·,β) denoted by In and (ii) the integrated squared difference between a kernel estimate of f(·) and the corresponding kernel smoothed estimate of f0(·, β) denoted by Jn. It is shown in this paper that the amount of smoothing applied to the data in constructing the kernel estimate of f(·) determines the form of the test statistic based on In. For each test developed, we also examine its asymptotic properties including consistency and the local power property. In particular, we show that tests developed in this paper, except the first one, are more powerful than the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test under the sequence of local alternatives introduced in Rosenblatt [12], although they are less powerful than the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test under the sequence of Pitman alternatives. A small simulation study is carried out to examine the finite sample performance of one of these tests.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 409-418 
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    Notes: In this comment on Gurmu and Trivedi's “Variable Augmentation Specification Tests in the Linear Exponential Family,” I show how their generalized linear model (GLM) approach relates to other work in econometrics on specification testing in the linear exponential family. In addition to shedding light on the relationship between the statistics and econometrics literatures on testing in quasi-likelihood frameworks, this comparison reveals some important limitations of GLM as a general framework for devising specification tests.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 439-439 
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 609-632 
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    Notes: This paper takes up Bayesian inference in a general trend stationary model for macroeconomic time series with independent Student-t disturbances. The model is linear in the data, but nonlinear in parameters. An informative but nonconjugate family of prior distributions for the parameters is introduced, indexed by a single parameter that can be readily elicited. The main technical contribution is the construction of posterior moments, densities, and odd ratios by using a six-step Gibbs sampler. Mappings from the index parameter of the family of prior distribution to posterior moments, densities, and odds ratios are developed for several of the Nelson–Plosser time series. These mappings show that the posterior distribution is not even approximately Gaussian, and they indicate the sensitivity of the posterior odds ratio in favor of difference stationarity to the choice of the prior distribution.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 672-700 
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    Notes: The distribution of statistics testing restrictions on the coefficients in time series regressions can depend on the order of integration of the regressors. In practice, the order of integration is rarely known. We examine two conventional approaches to this problem — simply to ignore unit root problems or to use unit root pretests to determine the critical values for second-stage inference—and show that both exhibit substantial size distortions in empirically plausible situations. We then propose an alternative approach in which the second-stage critical values depend continuously on a first-stage statistic that is informative about the order of integration of the regressor. This procedure has the correct size asymptotically and good local asymptotic power.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 720-746 
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    Notes: This paper proposes residual-based tests for the null of level- and trend-stationarity, which are analogs of the LM test for an MA unit root. Asymptotic distributions of the tests are nonstandard, but they are expressed in a unified manner by expressing stochastic integrals. In addition, the tests are shown to be consistent. By expressing the distributions expressed as a function of a chi-square variable with one degree of freedom, the exact limiting probability density and cumulative distribution functions are obtained, and the exact limiting cumulative distribution functions are tabulated. Finite sample performance of the proposed tests is studied by simulation. The tests display stable size when the lag truncation number for the long-run variance estimation is chosen appropriately. But the power of the tests is generally not high at selected sample sizes. The test for the null of trend-stationarity is applied to the U.S. macroeconomic time series along with the Phillips-Perron Z(⋯) test. For some monthly and annual series, the two tests provide consistent inferential results. But for most series, the two contradictory nulls of trend-stationarity and a unit root cannot be rejected at the conventional significance levels.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 372-395 
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    Notes: We prove [...]-consistency and asymptotic normality of a generalized semiparametric regression estimator that includes as special cases Ichimura's semiparametric least-squares estimator for single index models, and the estimator of Klein and Spady for the binary choice regression model. Two function expansions reveal a type of U-process structure in the criterion function; then new U-process maximal inequalities are applied to establish the requisite stochastic equicontinuity condition. This method of proof avoids much of the technical detail required by more traditional methods of analysis. The general framework suggests other [...]-consistent and asymptotically normal estimators.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 435-438 
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 440-440 
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 442-443 
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 223-224 
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 224-225 
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 172-197 
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    Notes: This paper explores the robustness of minimum distance (GMM) estimators focusing particularly on the effect of intermediate covariance matrix estimation on final estimator performance. Asymptotic expansions to order Op(n−3/2) are employed to construct O(n−2) expansions for the variance of estimators constructed from preliminary least-squares and general M-estimators. In the former case, there is a rather curious robustifying effect due to estimation of the Eicker-White covariance matrix for error distributions with sufficiently large kurtosis.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 441-442 
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 1-2 
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 1-49 
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    Notes: Sabah (previously known as British North Borneo) occupies the whole of the northern portion of the island of Borneo, covering an area of 76, 115 square kilometres. Its immediate neighbours are Brunei, Sarawak and Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo). From 1882 to 1942, Sabah was administered by the British North Borneo (Chartered) Company. The territory possessed three main attractions: its timber, its reputed minerals and its land. Timber has now grown to be amajor export commodity, second only to petroleum. With the exception of deposits of coal and some gold, economic resources of other sought-after minerals were not proven during the period. The land proved to be the most valuable asset. Many crops were experimented with: tobacco, sugar cane, coffee, coconuts and rubber and they laid the basis for the economic development of the territory. The expansion of these crops was largely assisted by the introduction of a modern transport system which supplemented the original means of communication, the rivers. The railway in particular provided the impetus for the rubber boom on the west coast. In turn, this resulted in the emergence of an export-oriented economy, specializing in rubber, timber, copra and tobacco. From 1942, Sabah was occupied by the Japanese until its liberation in 1945. After a brief period under military administration, it became a British Colony in 1946. Under colonial rule from 1946 to 1963 the previous pattern of economic exploitation continued.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 1-2 
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 225-250 
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    Notes: One of the most innovative aspects of forest policy in colonial Burma was the employment of shifting cultivators in order to create teak plantations. As developed in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, this system of plantation forestry represented an far-sighted attempt to establish teak production on a long-term basis. Indeed, its adaptation of what many colonial officials viewed as a destructive and primitive form of agriculture to more ‘useful’ end, guaranteed its popularity in a broader imperial context. Even today, the use of shifting cultivators for commercial tree planting remains an acknowledged agroforestry technique, and is promoted as a cure for various social and ecological problems.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 1-2 
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 317-337 
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    Notes: Attempts to examine Hong Kong as an issue in British postwar colonial policy often emphasize the unique nature of the colony, and therefore a special case in British decolonization. Hong Kong has been regarded as an unconventional colonial entity, an anachronism in the modern world. But others argue that the word colony is not an appropriate term to describe it, except in the most severely technical legal sense, because of its spectacular industrial and economic development since the end of the Second World War. Nonetheless, Hong Kong has existed as a British crown colony since 1842, and its colonial political structures have remained more or less the same until the early 1980s. Hong Kong's special relations with China is an important factor making it an oddity in post-war British decolonization. Instead of becoming independent like most other British colonialterritories, Hong Kong's political future is linked to China. This situation of ‘decolonization without independence’ has been an important theme of academic analysis on the colony's political development.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 431-438 
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  • 96
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 77-98 
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    Topics: Ethnic Sciences , History , Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Comparatively little of a scholarly nature has been written about Indonesian trade unions, particularly on the two decades from 1945 to 1965 when, like the political parties to which so many of them were affiliated, the unions had their heyday. This paper focuses on the development of trade unions in one specific industry: refined sugar production. The period to be examined—1945 to 1949—runs from the proclamation of Indonesian independence by Sukarno and Hatta, through the revolution fought against the returning Dutch, to December 1949 when the Netherlands finally acknowledged Indonesian independence. It was during this period that the major post-war sugar industry unions were established. The circumstances surrounding the establishment of these unions will be examined, along with their leaders and members, ideological leanings and political and industrial objectives.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 129-164 
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    Notes: Although it would now seem established beyond question that agriculture in most parts of India had been exposed to commercial influences from medieval times, there can be little doubt that a variety of developments from the second half of the nineteenth century greatly strengthened those influences. Railways and road transport made possible a huge expansion in cash cropping, for national and international markets, and production regimes across the subcontinent were placed in a new context of opportunity—and of pressure. While so much would scarcely be disputed among historians, what has become—and remained—more controversial, however, is an understanding of the implications of this extended commercial logic for agrarian economy and society. Since colonial times, opinions would seem to have been divided between ‘optimists’, for whom commercialization marked progress and a growing prosperity for all; ‘pessimists’, for whom it marked regress into deepening class stratification and mass pauperization; and ‘sceptics’ who held that it made very little difference and that its impact was largely absorbed by preexisting structures of wealth accumulation and power on the land.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 223-224 
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 739-791 
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    Topics: Ethnic Sciences , History , Political Science , Economics
    Notes: The role of legal tradition in the reformist rhetoric of Benthamite Utilitarianism presents us with a contradiction. On the one hand, there is the common observation that Utilitarian jurisprudence was necessarily ahistorical and rejected the past as a source of concepts for reworking the criminal justice system existing in Britain during the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. For philosophic reformers such as Bentham, contemporary British criminal justice was to be replaced by a scientific jurisprudence, abstract, universal, and secular in outlook, and antipathetic to the more conservative insistence that the foundations of the penal law continue to be tradition-based. ‘If society was to see any improvement, its law must be reformed; if its law was to be reformed it must be burned to the ground and rebuilt according to a new and rational pattern.’ On the other hand, we find that the very same Utilitarian thinkers, in works describing the state of the law in British India, were concerned with local rather than universal conceptions of criminality. In his 1782 Essay on the Influence of Time and Place in Matters of Legislation, Bentham, for instance, urged the philosophic reformer to temper change in India by fitting Utilitarian judgments about the law to the frames of local society.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 891-893 
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