ALBERT

Beschreibung: We assess uncertainties in projecting future changes in extreme storm surge height (SSH) based on typhoon data extracted from ensemble experiment results with four sea surface temperature (SST) conditions and three global warming scenarios using a single atmospheric global climate model. In particular, this study focus on typhoons passing around the Korean Peninsula (KP) defined as the region of 32 to 40° N and 122 to 132° E. It is predicted the number of the typhoons affecting the KP will decrease by 4~73% while their strength will increase by 0.8~1.4% under the given future conditions. The locations of genesis and lysis of the typhoons are expected to be shifted towards the northwest and northeast for all ensemble experiment conditions, respectively. However, the extent of their change varies depending on the future SST and global warming conditions. Storm surge simulations were carried out by using predicted typhoon data as an external force. It is found that future SST patterns and climate warming scenarios affect future typhoon characteristics, which influences values of extreme SSH and locations of the vulnerable area to storm surge under the future climate conditions. In particular, the values of extreme SSH and the locations of the vulnerable area to storm surge appear to be strongly influenced by both pathway and frequency of intense typhoons.

Beschreibung: Here, we investigate the seasonal variability in the dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) cycle in the Northwest Pacific using a high-resolution biogeochemical and carbon model coupled with an operational ocean model. Results show that the contribution to DIC from air–sea CO2 exchange is generally offset by vertical mixing at the surface at all latitudes, with some seasonal variation. Biological processes in subarctic regions are evident at the surface, whereas in the subtropical region these processes take place within the euphotic layer and then DIC consumption deepens southward with latitude. Such latitudinal differences in biological processes lead to marked horizontal and vertical contrasts in the distribution of DIC, with modulation by horizontal and vertical advection–diffusion processes.

Beschreibung: Previous observational and modeling studies indicate that the wintertime North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) could significantly impact the following winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability via the seasonal footprinting mechanism (SFM). This study explores climate projections of this winter NPO-ENSO relation in a warming climate based on a 50-member large ensemble of climate simulations conducted with the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). The ensemble mean of the 50 members can well reproduce the observed winter NPO pattern, the NPO-ENSO relationship, and the SFM process over the historical period 1950–2003. These 50 members are then employed to examine climate projections of the NPO-ENSO connection over the anthropogenic forced period 2020–2073. Results indicate that there exists a large spread of projected NPO-ENSO connections across these 50 ensemble members due to internal climate variability. Internal climate variability brings uncertainties in the projection of the winter NPO-ENSO connection originally seen in projected changes of the subtropical center of the winter NPO. The spread of projections of winter NPO-associated atmospheric anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific further results in various responses in the projections of winter and spring precipitation anomalies over the tropical North Pacific, as well as spring zonal wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific, which eventually lead to uncertainties in the projection of the sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical central-eastern Pacific from the following summer to winter.

Beschreibung: The interdisciplinary exchange in climate engineering research offers a unique opportunity to make assumptions more explicit for such research projects. While making assumptions explicit is the standard in all disciplinary sciences, some assumptions in the context of societal challenges can only be usefully unveiled, discussed, and verified from the perspective of other research disciplines. Results from successful interdisciplinary collaborations are then more accessible and more generalizable to actors beyond the confines of the academic community. We aim to illustrate how interdisciplinary exchange helps to unveil assumptions in research endeavors and why this is important for successful interdisciplinary collaborations. We therefore follow different stages of the German Priority Program on Climate Engineering (SPP 1689), which we use as an example case of a successful interdisciplinary project. SPP 1689 focused on risks, challenges, and opportunities of Climate Engineering from the perspectives of numerous disciplines. Major results were that the initial assessments of technologies had to be sobered, the consideration of trade-offs is crucial for the potential assessment, and governance issues appeared larger than previously considered. From the reflections of SPP 1689, we conclude with three lessons learned: (1) The project profited from egalitarian organizational structures and communicative practices, preventing the predominance from single disciplines. (2) Within the project continuous efforts were undertaken to foster interdisciplinary understanding. In addition, the flexible project structure allowed for the accommodation of research needs arising as a result of these exchanges. (3) SPP 1689 offered early career researchers a platform for professional exchange on common challenges and best practices of being a part of an interdisciplinary research project.

Beschreibung: Climate change is threatening food security in many tropical countries, where a large proportion of food is produced by vulnerable smallholder farmers. Interventions are available to offset many of the negative impacts of climate change on agriculture, and they can be tailored to local conditions often through relative modest investments. However, little quantitative information is available to guide investment or policy choices at a time when countries and development agencies are under pressure to implement policies that can help achieve Sustainable Development Goals while coping with climate change. Among smallholder adaptation options, developing seeds resilient to current and future climate shocks expected locally is one of the most important actions available now. In this paper, we used national and local data to estimate the costs of climate change to smallholder farmers in Malawi and Tanzania. We found that the benefits from adopting resilient seeds ranged between 984 million and 2.1 billion USD during 2020–2050. Our analysis demonstrates the benefits of establishing and maintaining a flexible national seed sector with participation by communities in the breeding, delivery, and adoption cycle.

Beschreibung: Transportation and communication networks are ubiquitous in nature and society. Uncovering the underlying topology as well as link weights, is fundamental to understanding traffic dynamics and designing effective control strategies to facilitate transmission efficiency. We develop a general method for reconstructing transportation networks from detectable traffic flux data using the aid of a compressed sensing algorithm. Our approach enables full reconstruction of network topology and link weights for both directed and undirected networks from relatively small amounts of data compared to the network size. The limited data requirement and certain resistance to noise allows our method to achieve real-time network reconstruction. We substantiate the effectiveness of our method through systematic numerical tests with respect to several different network structures and transmission strategies. We expect our approach to be widely applicable in a variety of transportation and communication systems.

Beschreibung: The dynamic shot noise in a molecular quantum dot connected to two non-collinear ferromagnetic terminals under the perturbation of ac fields has been investigated by the nonequilibrium Green’s function approach. The formulas of current, current correlation, and shot noise have been presented in the weak electron-phonon (el-ph) interaction regime to address the cooperated behaviors generated by the photon and phonon perturbation. The photon and phonon perturbations induce quite different current correlations, and the noise suppression occurs unambiguously by increasing the phonon energy in the valley regime. The suppression of shot noise comes from drawing the unbalanced current correlation towards the balanced one, where coherent current correlation takes major role. The suppression of photon-assisted shot noise can be completed mainly by rotating polarization angle of the terminals, and increasing the phonon energy ħ ω 0 . The Fano factor is enhanced considerably by the el-ph interaction, and it is also enhanced by increasing the polarization angle from θ = 0 to θ = π .

Beschreibung: It is firmly established in the hydrologic literature that flooding depends on both antecedent watershed wetness and precipitation. One could phrase this relationship as “heavy precipitation does not necessarily lead to high stream discharge”, but rarely do studies directly affirm this statement. We have observed several non-hydrologists mistake trends in heavy precipitation as a proxy for trends in riverine flooding. If the relationship between heavy precipitation and high discharge was more often explicitly presented, heavy precipitation may less often be misinterpreted as a proxy for discharge. In this paper, we undertake such an analysis for 390 watersheds across the contiguous U.S. We found that 99th percentile precipitation only results in 99th percentage discharge 36 % of the time. However, when conditioned on soil moisture from the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, 62 % of 99th percentile precipitation results in 99th percentile discharge during wet periods and only 13 % during dry periods. When relating trends in heavy precipitation to hydrologic response, precipitation data should, therefore, be segregated based on concurrent soil moisture. Taking this approach for climate predictions, we found that CMIP-5 atmosphere–ocean global circulation model (AOGCM) simulations for a RCP 6.0 forcing project increases in concurrence of greater than median soil wetness and extreme precipitation in the northern United States and a decrease in the south, suggesting northern regions could see an increase in very high discharges while southern regions could see decreases despite both regions having an increase in extreme precipitation. While the actual outcome is speculative given the uncertainties of the AOGCM’s, such an analysis provides a more sophisticated framework from which to evaluate the output as well as historic climate data.

Beschreibung: Probabilistic event attribution (PEA) is an important tool for assessing the contribution of climate change to extreme weather events. Here, PEA is applied to explore the climate attribution of recent extreme heat events in California’s Central Valley. Heat waves have become progressively more severe due to increasing relative humidity and nighttime temperatures, which increases the health risks of exposed communities, especially Latino farmworkers and other socioeconomically disadvantaged communities. Using a superensemble of simulations with the Hadley Centre Regional Model (HadRM3P), we find that (1) simulations of the hottest summer days during the 2000s were twice as likely to occur using observed levels of greenhouse gases than in a counterfactual world without major human activities, suggesting a strong relationship between heat extremes and the increase in human emissions of greenhouse gases, (2) detrimental impacts of heat on public health-relevant variables, such as the number of days above 40 °C, can be quantified and attributed to human activities using PEA, and (3) PEA can serve as a tool for addressing climate justice concerns of populations within developed nations who are disproportionately exposed to climate risks.

Beschreibung: In this paper, we develop a new method for the multifractal characterization of two-dimensional nonstationary signal, which is based on the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). By applying to two artificially generated signals of two-component ARFIMA process and binomial multifractal model, we show that the new method can reliably determine the multifractal scaling behavior of two-dimensional signal. We also illustrate the applications of this method in finance and physiology. The analyzing results exhibit that the two-dimensional signals under investigation are power-law correlations, and the electricity market consists of electricity price and trading volume is multifractal, while the two-dimensional EEG signal in sleep recorded for a single patient is weak multifractal. The new method based on the detrended fluctuation analysis may add diagnostic power to existing statistical methods.

Beschreibung: We investigate the universality aspects of the four-dimensional random-field Ising model (RFIM) using numerical simulations at zero temperature. We consider two different, in terms of the field distribution, versions of the model, namely a Gaussian RFIM and an equal-weight trimodal RFIM. By implementing a computational approach that maps the ground-state of the system to the maximum-flow optimization problem of a network, we employ the most up-to-date version of the push-relabel algorithm and simulate large ensembles of disorder realizations of both models for a broad range of random-field values and system sizes. Using as finite-size measures the sample-to-sample fluctuations of the order parameter of the system, we propose, for both types of distributions, estimates of the critical field h c and the critical exponent ν of the correlation length, the latter suggesting that the two models in four dimensions share the same universality class.

Beschreibung: Some temporal networks, most notably citation networks, are naturally represented as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). To detect communities in DAGs, we propose a modularity for DAGs by defining an appropriate null model (i.e., randomized network) respecting the order of nodes. We implement a spectral method to approximately maximize the proposed modularity measure and test the method on citation networks and other DAGs. We find that the attained values of the modularity for DAGs are similar for partitions that we obtain by maximizing the proposed modularity (designed for DAGs), the modularity for undirected networks and that for general directed networks. In other words, if we neglect the order imposed on nodes (and the direction of links) in a given DAG and maximize the conventional modularity measure, the obtained partition is close to the optimal one in the sense of the modularity for DAGs.

Beschreibung: Diffusion of information via networks has been extensively studied for decades. We study the general threshold model that embraces most of the existing models for information diffusion. In this paper, we first analyze diffusion processes under the linear threshold model, then generalize it into the general threshold model. We give a closed formula for estimating the final cascade size for those models and prove that the actual final cascade size is concentrated around the estimated value, for any network structure with node degrees ω (log  n ), where n is the number of nodes. Our analysis analytically explains the tipping point phenomenon that is commonly observed in information diffusion processes. Based on the formula, we devise an efficient algorithm for estimating the cascade size for general threshold models on any network with any given initial adopter set. Our algorithm can be employed as a subroutine for numerous algorithms for diffusion analysis such as influence maximization problem. Through experiments on real-world and synthetic networks, we confirm that the actual cascade size is very close to the value computed by our formula and by our algorithm, even when the degrees of the nodes are not so large.

Beschreibung: Building upon the findings of Muto et al. [Phys. Lett. A 136 , 33 (1989)] and Marchesoni and Lucheroni [Phys. Rev. E 44 , 5303 (1991)] about the growth of the number of (anharmonic) lattice solitons with increasing temperature and using a recent transport theory developed by the present authors [A.P. Chetverikov, W. Ebeling, G. Röpke, M.G. Velarde, Eur. Phys. J. B 87 , 153 (2014)] here we provide the fractional power law of the temperature dependence of resistivity in a rather general model for one-dimensional crystal lattices as, e.g., conducting polymers. We also show that the determining factor for the transport is the possibility of forming electron-soliton bound states (in short solectrons) with a most significant contribution arising from the (bosonic) bound state of two electrons to a soliton (in short bisolectrons).

Beschreibung: The electronic structure of isolated finite graphene nanoribbons is investigated by solving, at the Hartree-Fock (HF) level, the Pariser, Parr and Pople (PPP) many-body Hamiltonian. The study is mainly focused on 7-AGNR and 13-AGNR (Armchair Graphene Nano-Ribbons), whose electronic structures have been recently experimentally investigated. Only paramagnetic solutions are considered. The characteristics of the forbidden gap are studied as a function of the ribbon length. For a 7-AGNR, the gap monotonically decreases from a maximum value of ~6.5 eV for short nanoribbons to a very small value of ~0.12 eV for the longer calculated systems. Gap edges are defined by molecular orbitals that are spatially localized near the nanoribbon extremes, that is, near both zig-zag edges. On the other hand, two delocalized orbitals define a much larger gap of about 5 eV. Conductance measurements report a somewhat smaller gap of ~3 eV. The small real gap lies in the middle of the one given by extended states and has been observed by STM and reproduced by DFT calculations. On the other hand, the length dependence of the gap is not monotonous for a 13-AGNR. It decreases initially but sharply increases for lengths beyond 30 Å remaining almost constant thereafter at a value of ~2.1 eV. Two additional states localized at the nanoribbon extremes show up at energies 0.31 eV below the HOMO (Highest Occupied Molecular Orbital) and above the LUMO (Lowest Unoccupied Molecular Orbital). These numbers compare favorably with those recently obtained by means of STS for a 13-AGNR sustained by a gold surface, namely 1.4 eV for the energy gap and 0.4 eV for the position of localized band edges. We show that the important differences between 7- and 13-AGNR should be ascribed to the charge rearrangement near the zig-zag edges obtained in our calculations for ribbons longer than 30 Å, a feature that does not show up for a 7-AGNR no matter its length.

Beschreibung: We study the effect of interfacial phenomena in two-dimensional perfect and random (or disordered) q -state Potts models with continuous phase transitions, using, mainly, Monte Carlo techniques. In particular, for the total interfacial adsorption, the critical behavior, including corrections to scaling, are analyzed. The role of randomness is scrutinized. Results are discussed applying scaling arguments and invoking findings for bulk critical properties. In all studied cases, i.e., q = 3, 4, and q = 8, the spread of the interfacial adsorption profiles is observed to increase linearly with the lattice size at the bulk transition point.

Beschreibung: Extreme weather events are a significant cause of loss of life and livelihoods, particularly in vulnerable countries and communities in Africa. Such events or their probability of occurring may be, or are, changing due to climate change with consequent changes in the associated risks. To adapt to, or to address loss and damage from, this changing risk we need to understand the effects of climate change on extreme weather events and their impacts. The emerging science of probabilistic event attribution can provide scientific evidence about the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to changes in risk of extreme events. This research has the potential to be useful for climate change adaptation, but there is a need to explore its application in vulnerable developing countries, particularly those in Africa, since the majority of existing event attribution studies have focused on mid-latitude events. Here we explain the methods of, and implications of, different approaches to attributing extreme weather events in an African context. The analysis demonstrates that different ways of framing attribution questions can lead to very different assessments of change in risk. Crucially, defining the most appropriate attribution question to ask is not a science decision but one that needs to be made in dialogue with those stakeholders who will use the answers. This is true of all attribution studies but may be particularly relevant in a tropical context, suggesting that collaboration between scientists and policy-makers is a priority for Africa.

Beschreibung: We develop a methodology with which to assess the effects of policy instruments on the long-term abatement and costs of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies for coal power plants. Using an expert elicitation, historical data on the determinants of technological change in energy, values from the engineering literature, and demand estimates from an integrated assessment model, we simulate ranges of outcomes between 2025 and 2095. We introduce probability distributions of all important parameters and propagate them through the model to generate probability distributions of electricity costs, abatement costs, and CO 2 avoided over time. Carbon pricing has larger effects than R&D and subsidies. But much of the range of outcomes is driven by uncertainty in other parameters, such as capital costs and returns to scale. Availability of other low carbon technologies, particularly bioenergy with CCS affects outcomes. Subsidies have the biggest impacts when they coincide with expanding manufacturing scale of CCS components. Our results point to 4 parameters for which better information is needed for future work informing technology policy to address climate change: capital costs, demonstration plants, growth constraints, and knowledge spillovers among technologies.

Beschreibung: Inclusion of spin-dependent interactions in graphene in the vicinity of the Dirac points can be posed in terms of non-Abelian gauge potentials. Such gauge potentials being surrogates of physical electric fields and material parameters, only enjoy a limited gauge freedom. A general gauge transformation thus changes the physical model. We argue that this property can be useful in connecting reference physical situations, such as free particle or Rashba interactions to non-trivial physical Hamiltonians with a new set of spin-orbit interactions, albeit constrained to being isoenergetic. We analyse different combinations of spin-orbit interactions in the case of monolayer graphene and show how they are related by means of selected non-Abelian gauge transformations.

Beschreibung: Future bitumen production in the Athabasca Oil Sands, one of the largest remaining reserves of petroleum on the planet, is a key factor in global climate policy and politics. Climate warming in the Athabasca River Basin (ARB) has the potential to limit future streamflow availability for aquatic ecosystem needs, as well as for water withdrawals in oil sands mining operations. This study applies the land surface model IBIS and the hydrological routing algorithm THMB, with forced output from CMIP5 global climate models, to examine the response of streamflow in the ARB to climate change this century. In comparison to the small impact of water withdrawals on streamflow, climate change impacts are projected to be the primary driver of future low flow occurrences. Although winter flows are most sensitive to water withdrawals under the historical hydroclimatological regime, future climate change is projected to increase winter flows and decrease summer flows instead, with the frequency of summer low flows projected to rise by up to 85 % in the highest future emissions scenario by the end of the century. A decline in water availability due to more frequent low flows could interrupt oil sands water withdrawals and subsequent daily bitumen production for an additional 2–3 months each year by mid-century. Adaptation to climate warming in the ARB will need to recognize these changing seasonal patterns of flow in order to maintain available flows for ecological needs and water withdrawals.

Beschreibung: Recent trends in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have raised the concern that climate change could increase flooding risks and property damage. However, a major challenge in attributing and projecting changes in disaster risk is that damage is influenced not only by the physical climate hazard, but also by non-climatic factors that shape exposure and vulnerability. Recent assessments of integrated disaster risk have been hampered by the paucity of literature analyzing local-scale interactions between hazard, exposure and vulnerability in the historical record. Here we develop an integrated empirical analysis of historical flood damage that emphasizes spatial and temporal heterogeneity in flood hazard, economic exposure and social vulnerability. Using the Midwestern United States as a testbed, we show that annual property damage from flooding is projected to increase by 13 to 17.4 % over the next two decades. At the state level, over half of the increase is driven by projected growth in housing units. However, at the county level, the dominant factor causing future damage varies, emphasizing the value of a fully integrated, spatially and temporally resolved approach to assessing flooding risk and control strategies.

Beschreibung: The Hubbard model of bosons on two dimensional lattices with a lowest flat band is discussed. In these systems there is a critical density, where the ground state is known exactly and can be represented as a charge density wave. Above this critical filling, depending on the lattice structure and the interaction strength, the additional particles are either delocalised and condensate in the ground state, or they form pairs. Pairs occur at strong interactions, e.g., on the chequerboard lattice. The general mechanism behind this phenomenon is discussed.

Beschreibung: Investigations of the electronic properties and transport properties of Mg 2 Si under uniaxial [110] strain have been performed by using first-principle density-functional and Boltzmann’s transport theories. The effect of compressive and tensile uniaxial strains has been studied by changing the γ angle of the conventional cell from ± 1° to ± 4°. We show that, the Seebeck property of the constrained bulk lattice at high temperature, when plotted with respect to the charge carrier concentrations, is similar to that of the (110) thin film at low temperature. This behaviour is evidenced when superimposing the Seebeck coefficient curves of both materials by shifting down the S curve of the constrained structure by about 150 K with respect to the temperature.

Beschreibung: The probability density functions (PDFs) of earthquake energy fluctuations at different times have fat tails with a q -Gaussian form. We analyze the PDFs of energy fluctuations for different faulting styles and the relationship between the deviation from the Gaussian distribution and the faulting style. There are common features between the b -value and q -parameter dependence on the faulting styles. We suggest that the deviation from Gaussian distribution for the PDFs of earthquake energy fluctuation may be a useful indicator in earthquake-hazard research.

Beschreibung: This paper analyzes several interest rates time series from the United Kingdom during the period 1999 to 2014. The analysis is carried out using a pioneering statistical tool in the financial literature: the complexity-entropy causality plane. This representation is able to classify different stochastic and chaotic regimes in time series. We use sliding temporal windows to assess changes in the intrinsic stochastic dynamics of the time series. Anomalous behavior in the Libor is detected, especially around the time of the last financial crisis, that could be consistent with data manipulation.

Beschreibung: Religious beliefs, an important element of culture, influence adaptation to climate change. Less understood is how changing beliefs shape the adaptive capacity of communities responding to climate change. In the last century sub-Saharan Africa has experienced a transformation in beliefs. Since 1900 Christians have increased 70-fold while in rural areas Traditional Beliefs and associated Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) continue to influence the lived practices of vulnerable rural communities. Using two case studies of rural communities in Malawi (Bolero) and Zambia (Monze) we explore how Christianity and Traditional beliefs (and associated TEK) co-exist and assess if, and how, holding multiple belief systems affects climate-sensitive livelihood practices of food production. In Bolero we observed a lack of tensions between belief systems with Traditional leaders and elders noting the flexibility of adhering to both belief systems. In Monze however, basing livelihood decisions on the practice of rain-rituals resulted in strong tensions. In both communities elders noted their concern of how changing beliefs affect adherence to TEK management practices. We find that culture and beliefs play an important role in adaptive capacity but are not static. In the context of changing beliefs, adaptive capacity will be influenced by how different belief systems co-exist and how epistemological and intergenerational frictions are negotiated. As climate services become the focus of research and government interventions in vulnerable regions, avoiding culturally and economically expensive mal-adaptation will require giving attention to the complexity and dynamism of changing religious landscapes.

Beschreibung: This paper demonstrates the effect of sintering parameters on the electrocaloric effect (ECE) in BaTiO 3 ferroelectric ceramics, especially the sintering temperature and atmosphere. The samples were prepared by solid-state reaction method. With the rise of sintering temperature from 1200 °C to 1350 °C, the grain size increases remarkably and the densification is improved. The 1350 °C sintered sample has better ferroelectricity and higher latent heat for ferroelectric-paraelectric phase transition than those of the 1200 °C sintered sample. Correspondingly, it exhibits much better ECE. If the sample is sintered in pure oxygen, instead of in air, all ferroelectricity, dielectric strength and ECE are further enhanced. The sample sintered at 1350 °C in oxygen exhibits an excellent ECE performance with ΔT max = 1.37 K and ΔS max = 1.75 J/kg K.

Beschreibung: The low energy continuum limit of graphene is effectively known to be modeled using the Dirac equation in (2 + 1) dimensions. We consider the possibility of using a modulated high frequency periodic driving of a two-dimensional system (optical lattice) to simulate properties of rippled graphene. We suggest that the Dirac Hamiltonian in a curved background space can also be effectively simulated by a suitable driving scheme in an optical lattice. The time dependent system yields, in the approximate limit of high frequency pulsing, an effective time independent Hamiltonian that governs the time evolution, except for an initial and a final kick. We use a specific form of 4-phase pulsed forcing with suitably tuned choice of modulating operators to mimic the effects of curvature. The extent of curvature is found to be directly related to ω −1 the time period of the driving field at the leading order. We apply the method to engineer the effects of curved background space. We find that the imprint of curvilinear geometry modifies the electronic properties, such as LDOS, significantly. We suggest that this method shall be useful in studying the response of various properties of such systems to non-trivial geometry without requiring any actual physical deformations.

Beschreibung: The structural, electronic, and optical properties of NpO 2 and PuO 2 have been investigated by means of the hybrid density functional theory (HDFT) using the full-potential linearized augmented plane (FP-LAPW) wave plus local orbitals (lo) method. The weight of exact Hartree-Fock (HF) exchange, α = 0.25, 0.35 and 0.40, are chosen for the hybrid density functional calculation. The obtained energy band gaps of NpO 2 and PuO 2 are 2.75 eV and 2.80 eV within α = 0.35 scheme, respectively, which are in excellent agreement with the recent experimental data. The calculated charge density and charge density differences in the (110) plane suggest the chemical bonds for the two actinide dioxides have main ionic character. Furthermore, the dielectric function and related optical parameters of the two compounds are firstly calculated using the HDFT method. In particular, the obtained refractive index n for PuO 2 is consistent well with the experimental value in the wavelength range of 400 to 900 nm. We also predicted the effective number of electrons ( n eff ) contributing in the inter-band transitions reach a saturation value above 32 eV per unit cell for NpO 2 and PuO 2 .

Beschreibung: We present a theory for Raman scattering on 2D quantum antiferromagnets. The microscopic Fleury-Loudon Hamiltonian is expressed in terms of an effective O (3)-model. Well within the Néel ordered phase, the Raman spectrum contains a two-magnon and a two-Higgs contribution, which are calculated diagramatically. The vertex functions for both the Higgs and magnon contributions are determined from a numerical solution of the corresponding Bethe-Salpeter equation. Due to the momentum dependence of the Raman vertex in the relevant B 1 g + E 2 g symmetry, the contribution from the Higgs mode is strongly suppressed. Except for intermediate values of the Higgs mass, it does not show up as separate peak in the spectrum but gives rise to a broad continuum above the dominant contribution from two-magnon excitations. The latter give rise to a broad, asymmetric peak at ω ≃ 2.44 J, which is a result of magnon-magnon interactions mediated by the Higgs mode. The full Raman spectrum is determined completely by the antiferromagnetic exchange coupling J and a dimensionless Higgs mass. Experimental Raman spectra of undoped cuprates turn out to be in very good agreement with the theory only with inclusion of the Higgs contribution. They thus provide a clear signature of the presence of a Higgs mode in spin one-half 2D quantum antiferromagnets.

Beschreibung: In the present work, the atomic and the electronic structures of Au 3 N, AuN and AuN 2 are investigated using first-principles density-functional theory (DFT). We studied cohesive energy vs. volume data for a wide range of possible structures of these nitrides. Obtained data were fitted to a Birch-Murnaghan third-order equation of state (EOS) so as to identify the most likely candidates for the true crystal structure in this subset of the infinite parameter space, and to determine their equilibrium structural parameters. The analysis of the electronic properties was achieved by the calculations of the band structure and the total and partial density of states (DOS). Some possible pressure-induced structural phase transitions have been pointed out. Further, we carried out GW 0 calculations within the random-phase approximation (RPA) to the dielectric tensor to investigate the optical spectra of the experimentally suggested modification: Au 3 N(D0 9 ). Obtained results are compared with experiment and with some available previous calculations.

Beschreibung: In this work, materials used in the field of accessories for electrical cables have been characterised from a thermomechanical and electrical point of view, so to offer a realistic picture of material behaviour under a service involving the combined application of electrical charges and thermo-mechanical stresses. In particular, both materials are based on ethylene-vinylacetate (EVA) blend with the introduction in one case of aluminium trihydrate, whereas in the other case, carbon black was added, the two materials being referred as insulating and semi-conductive, respectively. The two materials had different rheological and thermal characteristics, which had an effect on electrical behaviour: however, the application of levels of radiation up to 60 kGy did not prove to widely change the profile of either polymer blends.

Beschreibung: A formula to obtain the cyclotron transition line-widths for a system of electrons interacting with confined-acoustic phonons through the deformation potential in a quantum well is derived using the projection-reduction method. The result contains the distribution functions for the electrons and phonons properly. Therefore, the phonon absorption and emission processes can be explained in an organized manner and the result can be represented diagrammatically, through which insight into the quantum dynamics of electrons in a solid can be obtained. The formula is used to calculate the cyclotron transition line-widths in silicon. It is shown that the line-width increases with increasing temperature but the well width and magnetic field dependence of the line-width are complicated. It is also shown that only a few low-energy confined modes contribute significantly to the line-widths.

Beschreibung: This paper investigates multi-crossing dynamics of multi-particle Landau-Zener (LZ) systems applying Dynamic matrix approach (DMA) that is found to generalize probability amplitudes. It is also observed that for exceedingly low frequencies, the system exhibits one crossing while for high frequencies, the multi-crossing. It is shown that for particular phenomenological parameters of the system, there is total population transfer that achieves the values one or zero useful for implementing quantum logic gates.

Beschreibung: We study the thermodynamic properties of a single particle occupying one of three available energy levels in a non-equilibrium regime. The particle is thermally coupled to a classical Maxwell-Boltzmann thermal reservoir and can jump among the available levels by exchanging energy with the heat bath. The bottom and middle energy levels are simultaneously raised at a given rate regardless of particle occupation, but keeping the energy gaps among the three levels fixed. We explicitly calculate the work, heat and entropy production rates, and the classical efficiency. We also consider the case of a Bose-Einstein thermal reservoir and provide explicit expressions for the non-equilibrium, steady-state probabilities.

Beschreibung: Climate-related extreme weather events can result in the loss of drinking water access. We assessed the relative vulnerability of 3143 United States (U.S.) counties to loss of drinking water access due to droughts, floods, and cyclones. Five vulnerability assessment models from the literature were compared, each differing in the aggregation method used to combine the three determinants of vulnerability (V) – exposure (E), sensitivity (S), and adaptive capacity (AC). Exposure scores were calculated using historical occurrence data, sensitivity scores were determined from the intrinsic resilience of the drinking water technologies, and adaptive capacity scores were calculated from nine socioeconomic indicators. Our results showed that models V  =  E  +  S  +  AC and V  =  E  +  S – AC were the same, as were models V  =  E  ×  S  ×  AC and V  =  E  ×  S  ÷  AC . Between these two model forms (form 1: V  =  E  +  S  +  AC and V  =  E  +  S – AC ; form 2: V  =  E  ×  S  ×  AC and V  =  E  ×  S  ÷  AC ), scores from one model form could be used to predict scores from the second model form, with R-squared values ranging from 0.61 to 0.82 depending on the extreme weather event type. A fifth model, V  = ( E – AC ) ×  S was not found to correlate with any of the other four models. We used V  =  E  +  S  +  AC as our reference model as this resulted in a more uniform distribution of counties in each of the five intervals of vulnerability. Comparing the vulnerability scores identified the counties with greatest vulnerability to losing access to drinking water due to floods, droughts, and cyclones. Our results can be used to inform evidence-based decisions such as allocation of resources and implementation of adaptation strategies.

Beschreibung: We study the Shannon entropy of the cluster size distribution in classical as well as explosive percolation, in order to estimate the uncertainty in the sizes of randomly chosen clusters. At the critical point the cluster size distribution is a power-law, i.e. there are clusters of all sizes, so one expects the information entropy to attain a maximum. As expected, our results show that the entropy attains a maximum at this point for classical percolation. Surprisingly, for explosive percolation the maximum entropy does not match the critical point. Moreover, we show that it is possible to determine the critical point without using the conventional order parameter, just analysing the entropy’s derivatives.

Beschreibung: In this work we investigate time varying networks with complex dynamics at the nodes. We consider two scenarios of network change in an interval of time: first, we have the case where each link can change with probability p t , i.e. the network changes occur locally and independently at each node. Secondly we consider the case where the entire connectivity matrix changes with probability p t , i.e. the change is global. We show that network changes, occuring both locally and globally, yield an enhanced range of synchronization. When the connections are changed slowly (i.e. p t is low) the nodes display nearly synchronized intervals interrupted by intermittent unsynchronized chaotic bursts. However when the connections are switched quickly (i.e. p t is large), the intermittent behavior quickly settles down to a steady synchronized state. Furthermore we find that the mean time taken to reach synchronization from generic random initial states is significantly reduced when the underlying links change more rapidly. We also analyse the probabilistic dynamics of the system with changing connectivity and the stable synchronized range thus obtained is in broad agreement with those observed numerically.

Beschreibung: A procedure based on stochastic Langevin equations is presented and shows how a stochastic model of driver behavior can be estimated directly from given data. The Langevin analysis allows the separation of a given data-set into a stochastic diffusion- and a deterministic drift field. Form the drift field a potential can be derived. In particular the method is here applied on driving data from a simulator. We overcome typical problems like varying sampling rates, low noise levels, low data amounts, inefficient coordinate systems, and non-stationary situations. From the estimation of the drift- and diffusion vector-fields derived from the data, we show different ways how to set up Monte-Carlo simulations for the driver behavior.

Beschreibung: The evolution of cooperation is still an enigma. Resolution of cooperative dilemma is a hot topic as a perplexing interdisciplinary project, and has captured wide attention of researchers from many disciplines as a multidisciplinary field. Our main concern is the design of a networked evolutionary game model in which players show difference in memory capability. The idea of different memory capacities has its origin on the pervasive individual heterogeneity of real agents in nature. It is concluded that this proposed multiple memory capacity stimulates cooperation in lattice-structured populations. The networking effect is also investigated via a scale free network which is associated with the heterogeneous populations structure. Interestingly, results suggest that the effectiveness of a heterogeneous network at fostering cooperation is reduced in the presence of individual memory here. A thorough inquiry in the coevolutionary dynamics of individual memory and spatial structure in evolutionary games is planned for the immediate future.

Beschreibung: The quantum dynamics of a few bosons in a double well potential is studied using a Bose Hubbard model. We consider both signs for the on-site interparticle interaction and also investigated the situations where they are large and small. Interesting distinctive features are noted for the tunneling oscillations of these bosons corresponding to the above scenarios. Further, the sensitivity of the particle dynamics to the initial conditions has been studied. It is found that corresponding to an odd number of particles, such as three (or five), an initial condition of having unequal number of particles in the wells has interesting consequences, which is most discernible when the population difference between the wells is unity.

Beschreibung: We present a proposal for a single-parametric electron pump composed of a quantum dot between two unbiased leads with energy-gapped electron density of states (DOS). The model tight-binding Hamiltonian and the evolution operator technique are used in the calculations. The quantum dot is driven by the external harmonic field which leads to the pumping current flowing from the left or right electrode depending on the system parameters. We show that the net pumping current appears in the system if (i) there are at least two sideband states: one of them lying below and the second lying above the Fermi energy; (ii) the left and right lead DOS in the vicinity of these sideband states are different. Moreover, the energy-gapped structure of DOS is visible on the average quantum dot charge and the pumped current curves as well as on the transconductance characteristics. Thus mono-parametric pumping provides useful information about the system parameters, in particular about the lead DOS structure.

Beschreibung: We show that, contrary to previous belief, the transition to the antiferromagnetic state of Sr 2 IrO 4 in zero magnetic field does show up in the transverse resistivity. We attribute this to a change in transverse integrals associated to the magnetic ordering, which is evaluated considering hopping of the localized charge. The evolution of the resistivity anomaly associated to the magnetic transition under applied magnetic field is studied. It tracks the magnetic phase diagram, allowing to identify three different lines, notably the spin-flip line, associated with the reordering of the ferromagnetic component of the magnetization, and an intriguing line for field induced magnetism, also corroborated by magnetization measurements.

Beschreibung: The article deals with the mathematical model for media with hierarchical structure. Using the Hamiltonian formalism, the dynamical system describing the state of hierarchically connected structural elements was derived. According to the analysis of the Poincaré sections, we found the localized quasi-periodic and chaotic trajectories in the three-level hierarchical model. Moreover, studies of correlation functions showed that the power spectrum for three-level model possesses local maxima characterizing temporal scales with strong correlation. Using the Fourier analysis of the solution’s components, we have studied the distribution of energy injected in the system over hierarchical levels. Dynamical phenomena in the multi-level system were studied as well.

Beschreibung: Lottery is the most famous branch among all the games of chance. By analysing data from Mega-Sena, the major lottery in Brazil, we investigated the presence of persistent behaviour in the time series of the number of winners. We found that the demand for tickets grew collectively as an exponential driven by the size of the accumulated jackpot. Finally, we identified that a stochastic model grounded on the rolling-over feature of lotteries can generate correlations qualitatively similar to those observed empirically. The model is consistent with the idea that the growth in the number of bets, motivated by the size of the expected jackpot, is a mechanism generator of correlations in an apparently random scenario.

Beschreibung: We obtain a special Fano-like resonance in a semi-closed T-shaped waveguide with nanodisk resonator, in which only two bright plasmon modes work. It is found that the transmission spectrum occurs a red-shift by increasing either length of the nanoslot or radius of the nanodisk. Moreover, when the length of the nanoslot and radius of the nanodisk reach to some particular values at the same time, the transmission spectrum will show an inverse line shape or the Fano-like resonance will disappear. Meanwhile, the classical figure of merit obtained by calculation is as high as 199 with a sizable classical sensitivity value reaches to 1114 nm/RIU. The generalized figure of merit also comes to an impressive value of 7961 nm/RIU. Besides, it is worth noting that the maximums of these two kinds of FOM lie in the dips of different linewidth, which can be utilized in diverse types of sensors. Our studies further provide a guidance for fabricating planar devices in near-infrared region.

Beschreibung: We present a numerical study of ferromagnetic Josephson junctions with one intermediate layer and spin active interfaces in the ballistic regime, comparing the behaviour of one, two and three dimensional junctions. We find that in two and three dimensional junctions the geometries which lack spin flip scattering at one of the interfaces have a critical current that decays to zero, as we increase the magnetization of the intermediate layer towards the half metal limit. As known, magnetization direction inhomogeneity produces a long range supercurrent with width variation, even when spin flip scattering exists in one of the interfaces only, although of lower characteristic decay length, compared to junctions with spin flip scattering at both interfaces. In the case of a single spin-flip interface and large thickness of the junction, we find a dominant second harmonic in the current-phase relation, in agreement with earlier work. We apply a diagrammatic approach, which explains the strong second harmonic and the long range property of the supercurrent. We find that in the three dimensional junction case the main contribution to both the long range supercurrent and the second harmonic in thick Josephson junctions with one spin flip interface comes from diagrammatic terms that correspond to scattering loops inside the junction which are subject to anomalous Andreev reflections on the spin flip interface and normal Andreev reflections at the non spin flip interface, thus exhibiting the triplet nature of the phenomenon. We also find the emergence of the strong first harmonic for small variation of the magnetization geometry and comment on the effect of normal interface scattering and temperature on the second harmonic.

Beschreibung: We derive the distribution function of work performed by a harmonic force acting on a uniformly dragged Brownian particle subjected to a rotational torque. Following the Onsager and Machlup’s functional integral approach, we obtain the transition probability of finding the Brownian particle at a particular position at time t given that it started the journey from a specific location at an earlier time. The difference between the forward and the time-reversed form of the generalized Onsager-Machlup’s Lagrangian is identified as the rate of medium entropy production which further helps us develop the stochastic thermodynamics formalism for our model. The probability distribution for the work done by the harmonic trap is evaluated for an equilibrium initial condition. Although this distribution has a Gaussian form, it is found that the distribution does not satisfy the conventional work fluctuation theorem.

Beschreibung: We investigate, using Monte Carlo simulations, the phase diagram of a system of hard rectangles of size m × mk on a square lattice when the aspect ratio k is a non-integer. The existence of a disordered isotropic phase, a nematic with only orientational order, a columnar phase with orientational and partial translational order, and a high density phase with no orientational order is shown. The high density phase is a solid-like sublattice phase only if the length and width of the rectangles are not mutually prime, else, it is an isotropic phase. The minimum value of k beyond which the nematic and columnar phases exist are determined for m = 2 and 3. The nature of the transitions between different phases is determined, and the critical exponents are numerically obtained for the continuous transitions.

Beschreibung: We consider the quasi-static thermodynamic processes with constraints, but with additional uncertainty about the control parameters. Motivated by inductive reasoning, we assign prior distribution that provides a rational guess about likely values of the uncertain parameters. The priors are derived explicitly for both the entropy-conserving and the energy-conserving processes. The proposed form is useful when the constraint equation cannot be treated analytically. The inference is performed using spin-1/2 systems as models for heat reservoirs. Analytical results are derived in the high-temperatures limit. An agreement beyond linear response is found between the estimates of thermal quantities and their optimal values obtained from extremum principles. We also seek an intuitive interpretation for the prior and the estimated value of temperature obtained therefrom. We find that the prior over temperature becomes uniform over the quantity kept conserved in the process.

Beschreibung: An inertial Brownian motor under the influence of a biased biharmonic signal is investigated numerically. For a finite positive bias force, the maximized negative current occurs at a relatively large noise intensity ( D = 0.01), while the magnitude of the anomalous velocity is also very large (greater than 1.5). This result means one can observe remarkably abnormal transport behaviors at relatively high temperature by means of a biharmonic drive.

Beschreibung: The stability of supersolid (SS) state in lattice boson model is highly dependent on lattice topology and particle-particle interaction. We investigate hard-core bosons on dice lattice where the bosons interact via nearest-neighbor (NN) repulsion either on whole lattice or on sublattices, by using large-scale quantum Monte Carlo simulations which are based on a continuous-time worm algorithm. In the case with NN repulsion on the whole lattice, we confirm the particle density modulation which arises from the asymmetry between sublattices — honeycomb and triangular sublattices — of dice lattice. We then place emphasis on the case with NN repulsion on the sublattices, and demonstrate spontaneously broken translational symmetries on different sublattices which lead to various crystalline orders. By evaluating the coexistence of crystalline order and superfluidity, we identify a variety of SS phases and establish a rich phase diagram. The microscopic pictures of these SS phases are figured out. Further, we demonstrate paradigmatic examples of first-order solid-to-SS and SS-to-SS quantum phase transitions.

Beschreibung: Analytical techniques developed in the field of materials science are now widely applied to objects of art and archaeology to gain information about the material composition and structure and hence to understand the way of manufacturing artefacts. Reciprocally, ancient artefacts studies show potential important contribution in the materials science field. This topical review will cover all these input and output aspects between materials science and ancient artefacts through the study of the first ceramics made by men e.g. potteries. To study these heterogeneous and complex materials, an approach based on the decomposition into sub systems of materials and the applications of traditional and novel analytical methods to scan the different scales of the material is not only mandatory but also innovative.

Beschreibung: Implementing an effective climate policy is one of the main challenges for the future. Curbing greenhouse gas emissions can prevent future irreversible impacts of climate change. Climate policy is therefore crucial for present and future generations. Nonetheless, one may wonder whether future economic and social development could be harmed by climate policy. This paper addresses this question by examining recent developments in international climate policy and considering different levels of cooperation that may arise in light of the outcomes of the Conference of the Parties held in Doha. The paper analyses how various climate policy scenarios would enhance sustainability and whether there is a trade-off between climate policy and economic development and social cohesion. This is done by using a new comprehensive indicator, the FEEM Sustainability Index (FEEM SI), which aggregates several economic, social, and environmental indicators. The FEEM SI is built into a recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the world economy, thus offering the possibility of projecting all indicators into the future and of delivering a perspective assessment of sustainability under different future climate policy scenarios. We find that the environmental component of sustainability improves at the regional and world level thanks to the implementation of climate policies. Overall sustainability increases in all scenarios since the economic and social components are affected negatively yet marginally. This analysis does not include explicitly climate change damages and this may lead to underestimating the benefits of policy actions. If the USA, Canada, Japan and Russia did not contribute to mitigating emissions, sustainability in these countries would decrease and the overall effectiveness of climate policy in enhancing global sustainability would be offset.

Beschreibung: This study provides the first attempt in quantifying the uncertainties in future urban climate projections due to regional climate models and metropolitan-scale urban planning scenarios. Targeted for the 2050s Augusts in Tokyo, Japan, dynamical downscaling simulations are conducted using two regional climate models, the WRF and NHRCM models, both downscaled from the global climate model MIROC5 under the RCP4.5 scenario. Both regional climate models are coupled with appropriate urban canopy models to accurately evaluate the urban climate. The projected 10-year mean temperature increases for the 2050s Augusts in the central Tokyo are roughly 2.4 °C and 2.2 °C, for the WRF and NHRCM models, respectively, with a roughly 0.2 °C difference between the two. Urban scenario experiments with the WRF model indicate that the compact city urban scenario can reduce the August mean temperature of surrounding residential areas by 0.4 °C, while the dispersed city scenario can increase the temperature by 0.1 °C. On the other hand, impact of urban scenarios on the temperature increase in central Tokyo is comparative or less than the surrounding areas. The impacts of urban scenario and regional climate model differences are larger in nighttime than in daytime, but are at most 0.6 °C. The results indicate that the uncertainties with the regional climate models and urban scenario are significantly less than those in emission scenarios or global climate model projections.

Beschreibung: Magnetic domain walls are fundamental objects arising in ferromagnetic materials, largely investigated both through micromagnetic simulations and experiments. While current- and field-based techniques for inducing domain wall propagation have been widely studied for fundamental understanding and application-oriented purposes, the possibility to manipulate domain walls using mechanical stress in magnetoelastic materials has only recently drawn interest. Here, a complete analytical model describing stress-induced transverse domain wall movement in ferromagnetic nanostripe with variable cross-section is presented. This approach yields a nonlinear integro-differential equation describing the magnetization field. Its numerical implementation, based on the nonlinear relaxation method, demonstrates the possibility to precisely control the position of a domain wall through mechanical action.

Beschreibung: While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is continuously improving its communication, visualisation has taken a back seat to more pressing issues. The consequence is a set of IPCC imagery where our understanding of perception remains empirically unchallenged. The visual design (defined in this study as the method, technique, and style used to create a visual) directly affects perception and yet, we know very little about how people intuitively respond to visuals depicting climate science. This study examines the perception of four images from the IPCC summary report for policymakers and two open sourced infographics. Using a group-administered study we found the visual design to have a significant impact on a novice readers ability to associate relevant words with an image. While the visuals part of the summary for policymakers educed a sense of confidence, a well-designed infographic left readers feeling less confident. The veneer of legitimacy associated with IPCC visuals is because they look scientific, whereas infographic images were found to look less serious. We acknowledge the accessibility of an infographic but urge IPCC authors to use it with caution, as any negative impact on scientific credibility is an unwanted feature in IPCC communication.

Beschreibung: Freshwater ecosystems in many parts of the world have been severely affected by past management practices that have altered the volume, timing and quality of water flows and caused a decline in their ecological health. Some of these systems are also experiencing the negative impacts of climate change. Adaptation to climate change and the continual need to address existing ecological damage poses ongoing challenges for freshwater managers. In this paper we propose and discuss a Catchment Assessment Framework (CAF) that is used to evaluate existing and potential freshwater management actions, such as riparian revegetation and habitat connectivity, for their adaptation potential. The CAF was developed as a tool for prioritizing low risk climate change adaptation options in Australian catchment management. The CAF enables catchment managers and technical experts to assess management actions against seven inter-related criteria to provide a holistic assessment: relevance to the catchment; climate change adaptation potential, including potential for maladaptation and benefit under different climate scenarios; ecosystem service benefits; compatibility with other actions; implementation constraints; socio-economic consequences; and a risk assessment. It was developed and applied by assessing nine management options with stakeholders in three catchments within the Murray-Darling Basin in south-eastern Australia. We found that while management options are undertaken as a response to existing degradation, they can be used as building blocks for a climate change adaptation strategy that considers a range of different but complementary measures to better manage climate-related risk. The CAF enables practitioners to assess the advantages of a range of adaptation options and to subject them to their wider decision making and management planning.

Beschreibung: This paper compares projections over the twenty-first century of SO 2 , BC, and OC emissions from three technologically detailed, long-term integrated assessment models. The character of the projections and the response of emissions due to a comprehensive climate policy are discussed focusing on the sectoral level. In a continuation of historical experience, aerosol and precursor emissions are increasingly decoupled from carbon dioxide emissions over the twenty-first century due to a combination of emission controls and technology shifts over time. Implementation of a comprehensive climate policy further reduces emissions, although there is significant variation in this response by sector and by model: the response has many similarities between models for the energy transformation and transportation sectors, with more diversity in the response for the building and industrial sectors. Much of these differences can be traced to specific characteristics of reference case end-use and supply-side technology deployment and emissions control assumptions, which are detailed by sector.

Beschreibung: Household flood management measures can significantly reduce the risk from flooding. Understanding the factors that influence the uptake of measures has important implications for the design of measures to induce people to take charge of risk mitigation. We investigate the impact of flood action groups in communities in Scotland on the uptake of four measures: insurance, flood warnings, sandbags and floodgates applying regression analysis using a cross-sectional survey ( n  = 124). The groups were formed in response to the threat from flooding in those communities, and offer information and training on household flood management measures. We use the theoretical framework of Protection Motivation Theory, and compare uptake of the measures before and after the foundation of the flood action groups, as well as in the near future. The models show positive adoption effects for flood warnings, floodgates and to an extent for insurance, and a positive correlation with increased confidence of implementing and belief in the effectiveness of the measures. The effect is significant if specific information on the measures was provided, indicating the importance of tailored content. We conclude that appropriately designed flood action groups can be a cost-effective way of increasing the uptake of household flood management measures.

Beschreibung: Research reveals that liberals and conservatives in the United States diverge about their beliefs regarding climate change. We show empirically that political affiliation also matters with respect to climate related risks such as flooding from hurricanes. Our study is based on a survey conducted 6 months after Superstorm Sandy in 2012 of over 1,000 residents in flood-prone areas in New York City. Democrats’ perception of their probability of suffering flood damage is significantly higher than Republicans’ and they are also more likely to invest in individual flood protection measures. However, 50% more Democrats than Republicans in our sample expect to receive federal disaster relief after a major flood. These results highlight the importance of taking into account value-based considerations in designing disaster risk management policies.

Beschreibung: We investigate the escape rate of an overdamped, self-propelled spherical Brownian particle on a surface from a metastable potential well. Within a modeling in terms of a 1D constant speed of the particle’s active dynamics we consider the associated rate using both numerical and analytical approaches. Regarding the properties of the stationary state in the potential well, two major timescales exist, each governing the translational and the rotational dynamics of the particle, respectively. The particle radius is identified to present the essential quantity in charge of regulating the ratio between those timescales. For very small and very large particle radii, approximate analytic expressions for the particle’s escape rate can be derived, which, within their respective range of validity, compare favorably with the precise escape numerics of the underlying full two-dimensional Fokker-Planck description.