ALBERT

Beschreibung: Due to some harmful effects on humans and the environment, particulate matter (PM) has recently become among the most studied atmospheric pollutants. Given the growing sensitivity to the problem and, since production and accumulation phenomena involving both primary and secondary P M 10 fractions are complex and non-linear, environmental authorities need tools to assess their plans designed to improve the air quality as requested from environmental laws. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) can be applied to support decision makers, by processing quantitative opinions provided by pools of experts, especially when different views on social aspects should be considered. The results obtained through this approach, however, can be highly dependent on the subjectivity of experts. To partially overcome these challenges, this paper suggests a two-step methodology in which an MCDA is fed with the solution of a multi-objective analysis (MOA). The methodology has been applied to a test case in northern Italy and the results show that this approach is a viable solution for the inclusion of subjective criteria in decision making, while reducing the impact of uncertain expert opinions for data that can be computed through the MOA.

Beschreibung: Both the global circulation model (GCM) and regional climate model (RCM) simulations suffer from model biases that eventually result in significant errors in regional forecasts. This model bias issue is addressed using the bias correction approach. This study examines the influence of bias correction on the performance of downscaling simulations of the East Asian winter climate using the Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs). To assess the bias correction approach, we conducted three sets of simulations for 25 winters (December to February) from 1982 to 2006 over East Asia. The GRIMs were forced by the (1) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis data, (2) original NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) data, and (3) bias-corrected CFS data. The GCM climatological means were adjusted based on the NCEP–DOE reanalysis data. The bias correction method was applied to zonal and meridional wind, temperature, geopotential height, specific humidity, and sea surface temperature of the CFS data. The GCM-driven experiments with/without bias correction were compared with the reanalysis-driven simulation. The results of this comparison suggest that the application of bias correction improves the downscaled climate in terms of the climatological mean, inter-annual variability, and extreme events owing to the elimination of errors in large-scale circulations. The effect of bias correction on the simulated extreme event is not as significant as those on the climatological mean and inter-annual variability, but the increased skill appears to be a clue for potential use for predicting extreme events.

Beschreibung: Greenhouse gases emitted from soil play a crucial role in the atmospheric environment and global climate change. The theory and technique of detecting stable isotopes in the atmosphere has been widely used to an investigate greenhouse gases from soil. In this paper, we review the current literature on greenhouse gases emitted from soil, including carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O). We attempt to synthesize recent advances in the theory and application of stable isotopes in greenhouse gases from soil and discuss future research needs and directions.

Beschreibung: The vertical profiles and trends of temperature and humidity at the South Pole up to 10 km above mean sea level (amsl) were investigated by using radiosonde data collected from March 2005 to February 2018. During an average year between 2005 and 2018, the highest (lowest) temperature in the lower troposphere was approximately −25 °C (−60 °C) in December (July) at a height of about 500 m above the surface (at the surface). A temperature inversion layer above the surface was found during the whole year but was weaker during the summer, while the inversion layers at the tropopause (about 8 km amsl) mostly disappeared during spring and winter. General warming trends were found at all heights and months, but in a few heights and months cooling trends still occurred (e.g., in September below 7 km amsl). Nevertheless, seasonal and yearly averaged temperatures all presented warming trends: 1.1, 1.3, 0.6, 1.5 and 1.1 °C/decade at the surface, and 0.7, 1.0, 0.3, 0.3 and 0.6 °C/decade for the layer average from the surface to 10 km amsl, for spring, summer, autumn, winter, and yearly average, respectively. Most of the water vapor was confined in the lowermost 3 km of the atmosphere with a maximum of 0.35 g kg−1 in December at a 200 m height above surface, and the specific humidity had the similar characteristic of annual cycle and inversion layers as the temperature. At heights below 5 km amsl, increasing trends of specific humidity larger than 0.02 g kg−1/decade occurred during summer months, including the late spring and early autumn, and the annual mean showed an increasing trend of about 0.01–0.02 g kg−1/decade. Meanwhile, above 5 km amsl, the trends became small and generally less than 0.02 g kg−1/decade in all the months, and beyond 7 km amsl the specific humidity remained almost invariant due to its small moisture content as compared with lower levels. From the surface to 10 km amsl, the specific humidity averaged trends of 0.0062, 0.019, 0.0013, 0.002 and 0.007 g kg−1/decade for spring, summer, autumn, winter and yearly average, respectively.

Beschreibung: In several studies conducted recently, it was shown that equations pertinent to the electric and magnetic fields produced by electrical charges in motion can be used to calculate the electromagnetic fields produced by current pulses propagating along linearly restricted paths. An example includes the case of current pulses propagating along conductors and conducting channels such as lightning. In this paper, it is shown how the technique can be applied to estimate the electromagnetic fields generated by current and charge distributions moving in arbitrary directions in space. The analysis shows that, depending on the way the problem is formulated using the field equations pertinent to accelerating charges, one procedure leads to the generalized dipole equations, which are independent of the velocity of propagation of the current, and the other procedure leads to a set of equations that depend on the velocity. Using the well-tested transmission line model of lightning return strokes as an example, it is shown that both sets of field equations give rise to the same total electromagnetic field.

Beschreibung: Urban-induced thermal stress can threaten human health, especially during heat waves (HWs). The growth of cities further exacerbates this effect. Here, weather research and forecasting (WRF) with an urban canopy model (UCM) is used to assess the effects of megacities and their growth on the thermal regime of proximal cities during heat waves. Analysis of the heat fluxes shows that advection impacts cities downwind. Results indicate that as urban areas change size (50%–100% and 100–150% of their current size), the local 2 m temperature increases by 2.7 and 1.7 °C, and the 2 m specific humidity decreases by 2.1 and 1.4 g kg−1, respectively. A small city downwind is impacted with a 0.3–0.4 °C increase in 2 m temperature. Green roof is a potential mitigation strategy for these regions (i.e., beyond the megacity). With 50% green roofs in an urban area, a 0.5 °C decrease in 2 m temperature and 0.6 g kg−1 increase in specific humidity is simulated. Urbanization upwind of a megacity will contribute to regional climate change.

Beschreibung: Runoff in snowy alpine regions is sensitive to climate change in the context of global warming. Exploring the impact of climate change on the runoff in these regions is critical to understand the dynamics of the water cycle and for the improvement of water resources management. In this study, we analyzed the long-term variations in annual runoff in the headwaters region of the Yellow River (HRYR) (a typical snowy mountain region) during the period of 1956–2012. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with different elevation bands was employed to assess the performance of monthly runoff simulations, and then to evaluate the impacts of climate change on runoff. The results show that the observed runoff for the hydrological stations at lower relative elevations (i.e., Maqu and Tangnaihai stations) had a downward trend, with rates of 1.91 and 1.55 mm/10 years, while a slight upward trend with a rate of 0.26 mm/10 years was observed for the hydrological station at higher elevation (i.e., Huangheyan station). We also found that the inclusion of five elevation bands could lead to more accurate runoff estimates as compared to simulation without elevation bands at monthly time steps. In addition, the dominant cause of the runoff decline across the whole HRYR was precipitation (which explained 64.2% of the decrease), rather than temperature (25.93%).

Beschreibung: In order to conduct real-time quantitative monitoring of dust storms, Ka-band millimeter wave radar (MMWR) was utilized for the consecutive detection of dust storms over the Taklimakan Desert from April to June 2018. The retrievals of the reflectivity factor, dust spectrum distribution and dust mass concentration were carried out with the power spectrum data detected by MMWR for three dust storm processes. The analysis shows that: The probability density distribution of dust conforms to the lognormal distribution. During the dust storm processes, the effective detection height of the reflectivity factor was within 2000 m and the range of the reflectivity factors was between-25 dBZ and 25 dBZ. During the floating dust period, the effective height of the dust spectrum distribution was lower than 300 m and the values of dust mass concentration were less than 31.62 μg·m-3,at a height of 200 m. Furthermore, during the blowing sand stage, the effective height of the dust spectrum distribution was normally lower than 600 m and the values of dust mass concentration were mainly less than 316.23 μg·m-3,at a height of 200 m. During the dust storm period, the effective height of the dust spectrum distributionexceeded1000 m; when the height was 100 m, the values of dust mass concentration were between 1220 μg∙m-3 and 42,146 μg∙m-3 and the average mass concentration was 9287 μg·m-3; whereas, the values of dust mass concentration were between 2 μg∙m-3 and 820 μg∙m-3 when the height was 1200m and the average mass concentration was 24 μg∙m-3. The relationship between the reflectivity factor Z and the dust mass concentration M isdefined as Z=651.6M0.796. Compared with the observational data from Grimm180 particle detector, the data of the retrieved dust mass concentration are basically accurate and this retrieved method proves to be feasible. Thus, the MMWR cans be used as a new device for quantitative monitoring of dust storms.

Beschreibung: Agricultural emissions are crucial to regional air quality in the autumn and spring due to the intense agricultural activities in Northeast China. However, information on rural ambient particulate matter (PM) in Northeast China is rare, limiting the accurate estimation of agricultural atmospheric particulate matter emissions. In this study, we monitored hourly ambient PM2.5 (PM with a diameter of less than 2.5 μm) concentrations and analyzed daily chemical components (i.e., water-soluble ions, trace elements, organic carbon, and element carbon) at a rural site in Northeast China during the autumn and spring and assessed the impact of agricultural activities on atmospheric PM2.5 concentrations. The results showed that the daily average concentrations of PM2.5 were 143 ± 109 (range: 39–539) μg m−3 from 19 October to 23 November 2017 (i.e., typical harvesting month) and 241 ± 189 (range: 97–976) μg m−3 from 1 April to 13 May 2018 (i.e., typical tilling month). In autumn, the ambient PM2.5 concentrations were high with a Southwest wind, while a Southeast wind caused high PM2.5 concentrations during spring in the rural site. The concentrations of selected water-soluble ions, trace elements, and carbonaceous fractions accounted for 33%, 4%, and 26% of PM2.5 mass concentrations, respectively, in autumn and for 10%, 5%, and 3% of PM2.5 mass concentrations, respectively, in spring. On the basis of the component analysis, straw burning, agricultural machinery, and soil dust driven by wind and tilling were the main contributors to high rural PM2.5 concentrations. In addition, the increasing coal combustion around the rural site was another important source of PM2.5.

Beschreibung: Using composite, regular, and partial regression analyses in the six consecutive seasons from spring of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-/Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)-developing year through summer following the ENSO/IOD mature phase, the individual and combined impacts of El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) on the evolution of precipitation in China are diagnosed for the period 1950–2013. It is shown that the seasonal responses of precipitation in China to El Niño and pIOD events, and their relationship with the large-scale atmospheric circulations, differ from one season to another. For the pure El Niño years, there is a seasonal reversal of precipitation over southeastern and northwestern China, with deficient precipitation occurring in these two regions before the onset of anomalous wet conditions in the developing autumn. Meanwhile, North China tends to be drier than normal in the developing seasons, but wetter than normal in the decaying seasons. For the pure pIOD events, southern China suffers a precipitation deficit (surplus) in the developing spring (summer and autumn). Furthermore, both North China and northwestern China experience excessive precipitation in the developing autumn and decaying summer. In addition, there is reduced precipitation in northeastern China during both the developing and decaying summers, whereas increased precipitation occurs in the developing autumn and decaying winter. For the combined years, southern China experiences enhanced moisture supply and suffers from increased precipitation from the developing summer through the subsequent spring, but reduced precipitation in the developing spring and decaying summer. Similar to the pure El Niño, northwestern (North) China becomes wetter than normal after the developing summer (autumn) in the combined years. In general, the ENSO/IOD-related precipitation variability could be explained by the associated anomaly circulations.

Beschreibung: We analyse Swarm satellite magnetic field and electron density data one month before and one month after 12 strong earthquakes that have occurred in the first 2.5 years of Swarm satellite mission lifetime in the Mediterranean region (magnitude M6.1+) or in the rest of the world (M6.7+). The search for anomalies was limited to the area centred at each earthquake epicentre and bounded by a circle that scales with magnitude according to the Dobrovolsky’s radius. We define the magnetic and electron density anomalies statistically in terms of specific thresholds with respect to the same statistical quantity along the whole residual satellite track (|geomagnetic latitude| ≤ 50°, quiet geomagnetic conditions). Once normalized by the analysed satellite tracks, the anomalies associated to all earthquakes resemble a linear dependence with earthquake magnitude, so supporting the statistical correlation with earthquakes and excluding a relationship by chance.

Beschreibung: An original source apportionment study was conducted on atmospheric particles (PM10) collected in Metz, one of the largest cities of Eastern France. A Positive matrix factorization (PMF) analysis was applied to a sampling filter-based chemical dataset obtained for the April 2015 to January 2017 period. Nine factors were clearly identified, showing mainly contributions from anthropogenic sources of primary PM (19.2% and 16.1% for traffic and biomass burning, respectively) as well as secondary aerosols (12.3%, 14.5%, 21.8% for sulfate-, nitrate-, and oxalate-rich factors, respectively). Wood-burning aerosols exhibited strong temporal variations and contributed up to 30% of the PM mass fraction during winter, while primary traffic concentrations remained relatively constant throughout the year. These two sources are also the main contributors during observed PM10 pollution episodes. Furthermore, the dominance of the oxalate-rich factor among other secondary aerosol factors underlines the role of atmospheric processing to secondary organic aerosol loadings which are still poorly characterized in this region. Finally, Concentration-Weighted Trajectory (CWT) analysis were performed to investigate the geographical origins of the apportioned sources, notably illustrating a significant transport of both nitrate-rich and sulfate-rich factors from Northeastern Europe but also from the Balkan region.

Beschreibung: We have developed a simple measuring system prototype that uses an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and a non-dispersive infrared (NDIR) analyzer to detect regional carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and obtain vertical CO2 distributions. Here, we report CO2 measurement results for the lower troposphere above Ogata Village, Akita Prefecture, Japan (about 40° N, 140° E, approximately −1 m amsl), obtained with this UAV system. The actual flight observations were conducted at 500, 400, 300, 200, 100, and 10 m above the ground, at least once a month during the daytime from February 2018 to February 2019. The raw CO2 values from the NDIR were calibrated by two different CO2 standard gases and high-purity nitrogen (N2) gas (as a CO2 zero gas; 0 ppm). During the observation period, the maximum CO2 concentration was measured in February 2019 and the minimum in August 2018. In all seasons, CO2 concentrations became higher as the flight altitude was increased. The monthly pattern of observed CO2 changes is similar to that generally observed in the Northern Hemisphere as well as to surface CO2 changes simulated by an atmospheric transport model of the Japan Meteorological Agency. It is highly probable that these changes reflect the vegetation distribution around the study area.

Beschreibung: Coastal rural areas can be a source of elemental mercury, but the potential influence of their topographic and climatic particularities on gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) fluxes have not been investigated extensively. In this study, gaseous elemental mercury was measured over Mediterranean coastal grassland located in Northern Greece from 2014 to 2015 and GEM fluxes were evaluated utilizing Monin–Obukhov similarity theory. The GEM fluxes ranged from –50.30 to 109.69 ng m−2 h−1 with a mean value equal to 10.50 ± 19.14 ng m−2 h−1. Concerning the peak events, with high positive and low negative GEM fluxes, those were recorded from the morning until the evening. Rain events were a strong contributing factor for enhanced GEM fluxes. The enhanced turbulent mixing under daytime unstable conditions led to greater evasion and positive GEM fluxes, while, during nighttime periods, the GEM evasion is lower, indicating the effect of atmospheric stability on GEM fluxes. The coastal grassland with its specific characteristics influences the GEM fluxes and this area could be characterized as a source of elemental mercury. This study is one of the rare efforts in the research community to estimate GEM fluxes in a coastal natural site based on aerodynamic gradient method.

Beschreibung: Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are important precursors to the formation of ozone and fine particulate matter, the two pollutants of most concern in Sydney, Australia. Despite this importance, there are very few published measurements of ambient VOC concentrations in Australia. In this paper, we present mole fractions of several important VOCs measured during the campaign known as MUMBA (Measurements of Urban, Marine and Biogenic Air) in the Australian city of Wollongong (34°S). We particularly focus on measurements made during periods when clean marine air impacted the measurement site and on VOCs of biogenic origin. Typical unpolluted marine air mole fractions during austral summer 2012-2013 at latitude 34°S were established for CO2 (391.0 ± 0.6 ppm), CH4 (1760.1 ± 0.4 ppb), N2O (325.04 ± 0.08 ppb), CO (52.4 ± 1.7 ppb), O3 (20.5 ± 1.1 ppb), acetaldehyde (190 ± 40 ppt), acetone (260 ± 30 ppt), dimethyl sulphide (50 ± 10 ppt), benzene (20 ± 10 ppt), toluene (30 ± 20 ppt), C8H10 aromatics (23 ± 6 ppt) and C9H12 aromatics (36 ± 7 ppt). The MUMBA site was frequently influenced by VOCs of biogenic origin from a nearby strip of forested parkland to the east due to the dominant north-easterly afternoon sea breeze. VOCs from the more distant densely forested escarpment to the west also impacted the site, especially during two days of extreme heat and strong westerly winds. The relative amounts of different biogenic VOCs observed for these two biomes differed, with much larger increases of isoprene than of monoterpenes or methanol during the hot westerly winds from the escarpment than with cooler winds from the east. However, whether this was due to different vegetation types or was solely the result of the extreme temperatures is not entirely clear. We conclude that the clean marine air and biogenic signatures measured during the MUMBA campaign provide useful information about the typical abundance of several key VOCs and can be used to constrain chemical transport model simulations of the atmosphere in this poorly sampled region of the world.

Beschreibung: In this study, AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network) and EARLINET (European Aerosol Research Lidar Network) data from 17 collocated lidar and sun photometer stations were used to characterize the optical properties of aerosol and their types for the 2008–2018 period in various regions of Europe. The analysis was done on six cluster domains defined using circulation types around each station and their common circulation features. As concluded from the lidar photometer measurements, the typical aerosol particles observed during 2008–2018 over Europe were medium-sized, medium absorbing particles with low spectral dependence. The highest mean values for the lidar ratio at 532 nm were recorded over Northeastern Europe and were associated with Smoke particles, while the lowest mean values for the Angstrom exponent were identified over the Southwest cluster and were associated with Dust and Marine particles. Smoke (37%) and Continental (25%) aerosol types were the predominant aerosol types in Europe, followed by Continental Polluted (17%), Dust (10%), and Marine/Cloud (10%) types. The seasonal variability was insignificant at the continental scale, showing a small increase in the percentage of Smoke during spring and a small increase of Dust during autumn. The aerosol optical depth (AOD) slightly decreased with time, while the Angstrom exponent oscillated between “hot and smoky” years (2011–2015) on the one hand and “dusty” years (2008–2010) and “wet” years (2017–2018) on the other hand. The high variability from year to year showed that aerosol transport in the troposphere became more and more important in the overall balance of the columnar aerosol load.

Beschreibung: A long-lived supercell developed in Northwest Bulgaria on 15 May 2018 and inflicted widespread damage along its track. The first part of this article presents a detailed overview of the observed storm evolution. Doppler radar observations reveal that the storm acquired typical supercellular signatures and maintained reflectivity values in excess of 63 dBZ for more than 4 h. The thunderstorm was also analyzed through lightning observations that highlighted important characteristics of the overall supercell dynamics. In its second part, the study investigates the predictability of the severe weather outbreak. In the medium forecast ranges, the global European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble indicated the presence of favorable conditions for the development of deep moist convection 4 days prior to the event. A set of three convection-allowing ensemble simulations also demonstrated that the practical predictability of the supercell was approximately 12 h, which is considerably higher than some previously reported estimates. Nevertheless, the skill of the convective forecasts appears to be limited by the presence of typical model errors, such as the timing of convection initiation and the development of spurious convective activity. The relevance of these errors to the optimal ensemble size and to the design of future convection-allowing numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems is further discussed.

Beschreibung: The increasing frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves seem to follow the observed global warming in recent decades. Vulnerability to heat waves is expected to increase in urban environments mainly due to population density and the effect of the urban heat island that make cities hotter than surrounding non-urban areas. The present study focuses on a vulnerable area of the eastern Mediterranean, already characterized as a ‘hot spot’ with respect to heat-related risk and investigates the change in heat stress levels during heat wave compared to non-heat wave conditions as well as the way that heat stress levels respond to heat waves in urban, compared to non-urban, environments. The adoption of a metric accounting for both the intensity and duration of the hot event yielded a total of 46 heat wave episodes over a nearly 60-year period, but with very rare occurrence until the late 1990s and a profound increased frequency thereafter. The results reveal a difference of at least one thermal stress category between heat wave and non-heat wave periods, which is apparent across the entire range of the thermal stress distribution. The analysis demonstrates a robust intensification of nighttime heat stress conditions in urban, compared to non-urban, sites during severe heat waves. Nevertheless, severe heat waves almost equalize heat stress conditions between urban and non-urban sites during midday.

Beschreibung: The modular structure of the boundary layer and convection parameterizations in atmospheric models have long been affecting the numerical representation of subgrid-scale motions and their mutual interactions. A promising alternative, the eddy-diffusivity/mass-flux approach (EDMF), has the potential for unifying the existing formulations into a consistent scheme and improving some of the long-standing issues. This study documents a step towards developing such a unified approach by implementing a stochastic multi-plume EDMF scheme into the Community Atmosphere Model (Version 5.0). Its performance in single-column mode is evaluated against the control parameterization and large-eddy simulation (LES) for two benchmark cases: marine and continental shallow convection. Overall, the results for the two parameterizations agree well with each other and with LES in terms of mean profiles of moist conserved variables and their vertical fluxes, as well as the updraft properties. However, systematic differences between the two schemes, especially for transient continental convection, are also documented. Using EDMF helps improve some of the parameterized features of shallow convection. In particular, for the highest tested vertical resolution, the EDMF cloud base and top heights and the vertical fluxes of energy and water are remarkably close to LES.

Beschreibung: In this study, using Aerosol Robotic Network aerosol optical depth (AOD) products at three stations in the North China Plain (NCP)—a heavily polluted region in China—the AOD products from six satellite-borne radiometers: the Moderate Resolution Imagining Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), Ozone Mapping Imaging (OMI), the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer (VIIRS), the Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS), and Polarization and Directionality of the Earth’s Reflectances (POLDER), were thoroughly validated, shedding new light on their advantages and disadvantages. The MODIS Deep Blue (DB) products provide more accurate retrievals than the MODIS Dark Target (DT) and other satellite products at the Beijing site (BJ, a megacity), with higher correlations with AERONET (R 〉 0.93), lower mean absolute bias (MB 〈 0.012), and higher percentages (〉68%) falling within the expected error (EE). All MODIS DT and DB products perform better than the other satellite products at the Xianghe site (XH, a suburb). The MODIS/Aqua DT products at both 3-km and 10-km resolutions performed better than the other space-borne AOD products at the Xinglong site (XL, a rural area at the top of a mountain). MISR, VIIRS, and SeaWiFS tend to underestimate high AOD values and overestimate AOD values under very low AOD conditions in the NCP. Both OMI and POLDER significantly underestimate the AOD. In terms of data volume, MISR with the limited swath width of 380 km has less data volume than the other satellite sensors. MODIS products have the highest sampling rate, especially the MODIS DT and DB merged products, and can be used for various climate study and air-quality monitoring.

Beschreibung: The Asia Pacific Mercury Monitoring Network (APMMN) cooperatively measures mercury in precipitation in a network of sites operating in Asia and the Western Pacific region. The network addresses significant data gaps in a region where mercury emission estimates are the highest globally, and available measurement data are limited. The reduction of mercury emissions under the Minamata Convention on Mercury also justifies the need for continent-wide and consistent observations that can help determine the magnitude of the problem and assess the efficacy of reductions over time. The APMMN’s primary objectives are to monitor wet deposition and atmospheric concentrations of mercury and assist partners in developing their own monitoring capabilities. Network planning began in 2012 with wet deposition sampling starting in 2014. Currently, eight network sites measure mercury in precipitation following standardized procedures adapted from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program. The network also has a common regional analytical laboratory (Taiwan), and quality assurance and data flagging procedures, which ensure the network makes scientifically valid and consistent measurements. Results from our ongoing analytical and field quality assurance measurements show minimal contamination in the network and accurate analytical analyses. We are continuing to monitor a potential concentration and precipitation volume bias under certain conditions. The average mercury concentration in precipitation was 11.3 (+9.6) ng L−1 for 139 network samples in 2018. Concentrations for individual sites vary widely. Low averages compare to the low concentrations observed on the U.S. West Coast; while other sites have average concentrations similar to the high values reported from many urban areas in China. Future APMMN goals are to (1) foster new network partnerships, (2) continue to collect, quality assure, and distribute results on the APMMN website, (3) provide training and share best monitoring practices, and (4) establish a gaseous concentration network for estimating dry deposition.

Beschreibung: Studies in actual urban settings that integrate chemical reaction modeling, radiation, and particular emissions are mandatory to evaluate the effects of traffic-related air pollution on street canyons. In this paper, airflow patterns and reactive pollutant behavior for over 24 h, in a realistic urban canyon in Osaka City, Japan, was conducted using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model coupled with a chemical reaction model (CBM-IV). The boundary conditions for the CFD model were obtained from mesoscale meteorological and air quality models. Inherent street canyon processes, such as ground and wall radiation, were evaluated using a surface energy budget model of the ground and a building envelope model, respectively. The CFD-coupled chemical reaction model surpassed the mesoscale models in describing the NO, NO2, and O3 transport process, representing pollutants concentrations more accurately within the street canyon since the latter cannot capture the local phenomena because of coarse grid resolution. This work showed that the concentration of pollutants in the urban canyon is heavily reliant on roadside emissions and airflow patterns, which, in turn, is strongly affected by the heterogeneity of the urban layout. The CFD-coupled chemical reaction model characterized better the complex three-dimensional site and hour-dependent dispersion of contaminants within an urban canyon.

Beschreibung: Ocean salinity variability provides a new way to study the evolution of the the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Comparisons between the salinity variation and related processes responsible for sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) were extensively examined for the two strong El Niño (EN) events in 1997/1998 and 2015/2016, and a special EN event in 2014/2015. The results show that the development of EN is significantly correlated with a sea surface salinity anomaly (SSSA) in the tropical western-central Pacific. In the spring of 1997 and 2015 with strong EN events, the western-central equatorial Pacific exhibited significant negative SSSA that propagated eastward to the west of the dateline. The negative SSSA induced increased barrier layer thickness (BLT) which enhanced sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the tropical central Pacific. In contrast, although a negative SSSA occurred during April of the 2014/2015 weak EN event in the western-central equatorial Pacific, this SSSA was mainly confined to between 160° E and 180° E without significant eastward movement, resulting in a weakened BLT thickening process and a weak modulation effect on SST. We also confirm that the surface forcing associated with fresh water flux (FWF: evaporation (E) minus precipitation (P)) plays a prominent role in the surface salinity tendency in the tropical Pacific during EN events. Moreover, the negative FWF anomaly leads a strong negative SSSA by two months. Compared with the two strong ENs, the early negative FWF anomaly in the weak 2014/2015 EN did not present distinct development and eastward propagation and weakened rapidly in the summer of 2015. We demonstrate that change in salinity can modulate the ENSO, and the variation of SSSA and associated physical processes in the tropical western-central Pacific and could be used as an indicator for predicting the development of ENSO.

Beschreibung: Contribution of extra-tropical synoptic cyclones to the formation of mean summer atmospheric circulation patterns in the Arctic domain (≥60° N) was investigated by clustering dominant Arctic circulation patterns based on daily mean sea-level pressure using self-organizing maps (SOMs). Three SOM patterns were identified; one pattern had prevalent low-pressure anomalies in the Arctic Circle (SOM1), while two exhibited opposite dipoles with primary high-pressure anomalies covering the Arctic Ocean (SOM2 and SOM3). The time series of their occurrence frequencies demonstrated the largest inter-annual variation in SOM1, a slight decreasing trend in SOM2, and the abrupt upswing after 2007 in SOM3. Analyses of synoptic cyclone activity using the cyclone track data confirmed the vital contribution of synoptic cyclones to the formation of large-scale patterns. Arctic cyclone activity was enhanced in the SOM1, which was consistent with the meridional temperature gradient increases over the land–Arctic ocean boundaries co-located with major cyclone pathways. The composite daily synoptic evolution of each SOM revealed that all three SOMs persisted for less than five days on average. These evolutionary short-term weather patterns have substantial variability at inter-annual and longer timescales. Therefore, the synoptic-scale activity is central to forming the seasonal-mean climate of the Arctic.

Beschreibung: The divergence problem, which manifests as an unstable response relationship between tree-ring growth and climatic factors under the background of global warming, poses a challenge to both the traditional theory of dendroclimatology and the reliability of climatic reconstructions based on tree-ring data. Although Schrenk spruce, as the dominant tree species in the Tianshan Mountains, is frequently applied in the dendrochronological studies, the understanding of the divergence problem of this tree species is still limited. This study conducted correlation analysis between climatic factors and tree-ring width chronologies from 51 living and healthy specimens of Schrenk spruce at sites of high and low elevation in the Alatau Mountains to determine the stability of the response. The results revealed that the tree-ring width of the spruce specimens was correlated positively with precipitation and correlated negatively with temperature. Although the variations of the two tree-ring chronologies were similar, the radial growth of the spruce at the low elevation was found more sensitive to climatic factors. Furthermore, the sensitivity of tree growth to climate demonstrated an obvious increase after an abrupt change of climate under the background of the recent warming and wetting trend. Increased drought stress, calculated based on climatic data, was regarded as the main reason for this phenomenon. The results supply the gap of the stability of climatic response of tree growth in Central Asia to some extent.

Beschreibung: The measured concentrations of inorganic pollutants, such as ozone (2015–2018), sulfur, and nitrogen oxides (2012–2018) at air monitoring sites in the south of Eastern Siberia were sampled, following the passive sampling method, and analyzed. The spatial inhomogeneity of atmospheric gas concentrations is presented. The ozone concentration is lower in urban areas than those in rural areas and the background level. However, the nitrogen and sulfur oxide concentrations are higher in the atmosphere over the city site. The seasonal dependence of the ozone concentration was determined using its maximum (March–April) and minimum (September–October) levels. The dynamics of the nitrogen and sulfur oxide concentrations indicate that they are at their highest in December–June and their lowest in July–August. To verify the validity of the pollutant concentration measurements sampled by passive sampling, we compared our results with those obtained following the automatic and filter pack methods. A linear regression analysis and a pairwise modification of Student’s t test evaluated the concentrations of the air pollutant, sampled and measured using different methods, and they correlate well (r = 0.7–0.9). Full validation of the passive sampling method is not possible for some sites; therefore it is necessary to remove the remaining systematic errors in future work.

Beschreibung: This study aims to address hydrological processes and impacts of an atmospheric river (AR) event that occurred during 15–18 February 2004 in the Russian River basin in California. The National Water Model (NWM), a fully distributed hydrologic model, was used to evaluate the hydrological processes including soil moisture flux, overland flow, and streamflow. Observed streamflow and volumetric soil water content data were used to evaluate the performance of the NWM using various error metrics. The simulation results showed that this AR event (15–18 February 2004) with a long duration of precipitation could cause not only deep soil saturation, but also high direct runoff depth. Taken together, the analysis revealed the complex interaction between precipitation and land surface response to the AR event. The results emphasize the significance of a change of water contents in various soil layers and suggest that soil water content monitoring could aid in improving flood forecasting accuracy caused by the extreme events such as the AR.

Beschreibung: In this study, based on daily precipitation records during 1958–2017 from 28 meteorological stations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, the spatio-temporal variations in precipitation extremes defined by twelve indices are analyzed by the methods of linear regression, Mann-Kendall test and continuous wavelet transform. The results showed that the spatial patterns of all the indices except for consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD) were similar to that of annual total precipitation with the high values in the east and the low value in the west. Regionally averaged precipitation extremes were characterized by decreasing trends, of which five indices (i.e., very heavy precipitation days (R50), very wet precipitation (R95p), extreme wet precipitation (R99p), max one-day precipitation (R × 1day), and max five-day precipitation (R × 5day)) exhibited significantly decreasing trends at 5% level. From monthly and seasonal scale, almost all of the highest values in R × 1day and R × 5day occurred in summer, especially in July and August due to the impacts of East Asian monsoon climate on inter-annual uneven distribution of precipitation. The significant decreasing trends in annual R×1day and R×5day were mainly caused by the significant descend in summer. Besides, the possible associations between precipitation extremes and large-scale climate anomalies (e.g., ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole), and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation)) were also investigated using the correlation analysis. The results showed that the precipitation extremes were significantly influenced by ENSO with one-year ahead, and the converse correlations between the precipitation extremes and climate indices with one-year ahead and 0-year ahead were observed. Moreover, all the indices show significant two- to four-year periodic oscillation during the entire period of 1958–2017, and most of indices show significant four- to eight-year periodic oscillation during certain periods. The influences of climate anomalies on precipitation extremes were composed by different periodic components, with most of higher correlations occurring in low-frequency components.

Beschreibung: The recent development of high-resolution climate models offers a promising approach in improving the simulation of precipitation, clouds and temperature. However, higher grid spacing is also a promising feature to improve the simulation of snow cover. In particular, it provides a refined representation of topography and allows for an explicit simulation of convective precipitation processes. In this study we analyze the snow cover in a set of decade-long high-resolution climate simulation with horizontal grid spacing of 2.2 km over the greater Alpine region. Results are compared against observations and lower resolution models (12 and 50 km), which use parameterized convection. The simulations are integrated using the COSMO (Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling) model. The evaluation of snow water equivalent (SWE) in the simulation of present-day climate, driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis, against an observational dataset, reveals that the high-resolution simulation clearly outperforms simulations with grid spacing of 12 and 50 km. The latter simulations underestimate the cumulative amount of SWE over Switzerland over the whole annual cycle by 33% (12 km simulation) and 56% (50 km simulation) while the high-resolution simulation shows a spatially and temporally averaged difference of less than 1%. Scenario simulations driven by GCM MPI-ESM-LR (2081–2090 RCP8.5 vs. 1991–2000) reveal a strong decrease of SWE over the Alps, consistent with previous studies. Previous studies had found that the relative decrease becomes gradually smaller with elevation, but this finding was limited to low and intermediate altitudes (as a 12 km simulation resolves the topography up to 2500 m). In the current study we find that the height gradient reverses sign, and relative reductions in snow cover increases above 3000 m asl, where important parts of the cryosphere are present. In addition, the simulations project a transition from permanent to seasonal snow cover at high altitudes, with potentially important impacts to Alpine permafrost. This transition and the more pronounced decline of SWE emphasize the value of the higher grid spacing. Overall, we show that high-resolution climate models offer a promising approach in improving the simulation of snow cover in Alpine terrain.

Beschreibung: China is experiencing severe PM2.5 (fine particles with a diameter of 2.5 μg or smaller) pollution problem. Little is known, however, about how the increasing concentration trend is spatially distributed, nor whether there are some areas that experience a stable or decreasing concentration trend. Managers and policymakers require such information to make strategic decisions and monitor progress towards management objectives. Here, we present a pixel-based linear trend analysis of annual PM2.5 concentration variation in China during the period 1999–2016, and our results provide guidance about where to prioritize management efforts and affirm the importance of controlling coal energy consumption. We show that 87.9% of the whole China area had an increasing trend. The drastic increasing trends of PM2.5 concentration during the last 18 years in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, Shandong province, and the Three Northeastern Provinces are discussed. Furthermore, by exploring regional PM2.5 pollution, we find that Tarim Basin endures a high PM2.5 concentration, and this should have some relationship with oil exploration. The relationship between PM2.5 pollution and energy consumption is also discussed. Not only energy structure reconstruction should be repeatedly emphasized, the amount of coal burned should be strictly controlled.

Beschreibung: A 10-year study of elevated severe thunderstorms was performed using The National Centers for Environmental Information Storm Events Database. A total of 80 elevated thunderstorm cases were identified, verified, and divided into “Prolific” and “Marginal” classes. These severe cases occurred at least 80 km away from, and on the cold side of, a surface boundary. The downdraft convective available potential energy (DCAPE), downdraft convective inhibition (DCIN), and their ratio are tools to help estimate the potential for a downdraft to penetrate through the depth of a stable surface layer. The hypothesis is that as the DCIN/DCAPE ratio decreases, there exists enhanced possibility of severe surface winds. Using the initial fields from the Rapid Refresh numerical weather prediction model, datasets of DCIN, DCAPE, and their ratio were created. Mann-Whitney U tests on the Prolific versus Marginal case sets were undertaken to determine if the DCAPE and DCIN values come from different populations for the two different case sets. Results show that the Prolific cases have values of DCIN closer to zero, suggesting the downdraft is able to penetrate to the surface causing severe winds. Thus, comparing DCIN and DCAPE is a viable tool in determining if downdrafts will reach the surface from elevated thunderstorms.

Beschreibung: This research aims to find the most ecological itineraries for urban mobility in a small city (eco-routes), where distances are rather short, but car dependence is really high. A real life citywide survey was carried out in the city of Caceres (Spain) with almost 100,000 inhabitants. Research was done on alternating routes, traffic, times of day, and weather conditions. The output of the study was to assess fuel consumption, CO2, and regulated pollutant emissions for different type of vehicles, routes, and drivers. The results show that in the case studied, urban roads had fewer emissions (CO2 and pollutants) but there was an increase in the population affected by pollutants. On the contrary, bypasses reduced travel time and congestion but increased fuel consumption and emissions. Traffic conditions had a greater influence on fuel consumption in petrol vehicles than diesel ones. Therefore, there must be a balanced distribution of traffic in order to minimize congestion, and at the same time to reduce emissions and the number of people affected by harmful pollution levels. There should be a combination of regulatory measures in traffic policies in order to achieve that balance by controlling access to city centres, limiting parking spaces, pedestrianization, and lowering traffic speeds in sensitive areas.

Beschreibung: The impact of absorbing aerosols on climate is complex, with their potential positive or negative forcing, depending on many factors, including their height distribution and reflective properties of the underlying background. Measurement data is very limited, due to insufficient remote sensing methods dedicated to the retrieval of their vertical distribution. Columnar values of absorbing aerosol optical depth (AAOD) and single scattering albedo (SSA) are retrieved by the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). However, the number of available results is low due to sky condition and aerosol optical depth (AOD) limitation. Presented research describes results of field campaigns in Strzyżów (South-East Poland, Eastern Europe) dedicated to the comparison of the absorption coefficient and SSA measurements performed with on-ground in-situ devices (aethalomter, nephelometer), small unmanned aerial system (UAS) carrying micro-aethalometer, as well as with lidar/ceilometer. An important aspect is the comparison of measurement results with those delivered by AERONET. Correlation of absorption to scattering coefficients measured on ground (0.79) and correlation of extinction on ground to AOD measured by AERONET (0.77) was visibly higher than correlation between AOD and AAOD retrieved by AERONET (0.56). Columnar SSA was weakly correlated with ground SSA (higher values of columnar SSA), which were mainly explained by hygroscopic effects, increasing scattering coefficient in ambient (wet conditions), and partly high uncertainty of SSA retrieval. AAOD derived with the use of profiles from UAS up to PBL height, was estimated to contribute in average to 37% of the total AAOD. A method of AAOD estimation, in the whole troposphere, with use of measured vertical profiles of absorption coefficient and extinction coefficient profiles from lidars was proposed. AAOD measured with this method has poor correlation with AERONET data, however for some measurements, within PBL, AAOD was higher than reported by AERONET, suggesting potential underestimation in photometric measurement under particular conditions. Correlation of absorption coefficient in profile to on ground measurements decrease with altitude. Measurements of SSA from drones agree well with ground measurements and are lower than results from AERONET, which suggests a larger contribution of absorbing aerosols. As an alternative for AAOD estimation in case of lack of AERONET AAOD data simple models are proposed, which base on AOD scaling with SSA measured with different methods. Proposed solution increase potential of absorption coefficient measurements in vertical profiles and columns of the atmosphere. Presented solutions make measurements of absorption coefficients in vertical profiles more affordable and allow rough estimation of columnar values for the whole atmosphere.

Beschreibung: Nature has been adversely affected by increasing industrialization, especially during the latter part of the last century, as a result of accelerating technological development, unplanned urbanization, incorrect agricultural policies and deforestation, which have contributed to the elevated concentration of the greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the environment. GHG accumulation has an adverse impact on meteorological and hydro-meteorological parameters, particularly temperature. Temperature plays a prominent and well-known role in evaporation, transpiration and changes in water demand, and thus significantly affects both water availability and food security. Therefore, a systematic understanding of temperature is important for fighting food insecurity and household poverty. Variations in temperature are often assessed and characterized through trend analysis. Hence, the objective of this paper is to determine long-term trends in mean monthly maximum and minimum air temperatures for the Maloti-Drakensberg region. The Mann–Kendall test, a non-parametric test, was applied on mean air temperature for the 1960–2016 period. A significant rising trend (p 〈 0.001) was detected with a yearly change in the long term annual mean maximum and mean minimum temperature by 0.03 °C/annum and 0.01 °C/annum, respectively. This knowledge has important implications for both the state of the environment and livelihoods in the region, since its use can be useful in planning and policymaking in water resource management, biodiversity conservation, agriculture, tourism and other sectors of the economy within the region.

Beschreibung: Subway air pollution mainly refers to inhalable particulate matter (PM) pollution, organic pollution, and microbial pollution. Based on the investigation and calculation of the existing researches, this paper summarizes the sources of air pollutants, chemical compositions, and driving factors of PM variations in subway. It evaluates the toxicity and health risks of pollutants. In this paper, the problems and challenges during the deployment of air pollution governance are discussed. Results show that the global PM compliance rate of subway is about 30%. Subway air pollution is endogenous, which means that pollutants mainly come from mechanical wear and building materials erosions. Particles are mainly metal particles, black carbon, and floating dust. The health risks of some chemical elements in the subway have reached critical levels. The variations of PM concentrations show spatial-temporal characteristics, which are mainly controlled by train age, brakes types, and environmental control systems. The authors then analyze the dynamics of interactions among government, companies and public during the air pollution governance by adding the following questions: (a) who pays the bill; (b) how to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of policies; (c) how the public moves from risk perception to actions; (d) how to develop clean air technology better so as to ultimately incentivize stakeholders and to facilitate the implementation of subway clean air programme in a resilient mode.

Beschreibung: Prescribed pasture burning plays a critical role in ecosystem maintenance in tallgrass prairie ecosystems and may contribute to agricultural productivity but can also have negative impacts on air quality. Volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations were measured immediately downwind of prescribed tallgrass prairie fires in the Flint Hills region of Kansas, United States. The VOC mixture is dominated by alkenes and oxygenated VOCs, which are highly reactive and can drive photochemical production of ozone downwind of the fires. The computed emission factors are comparable to those previous measured from pasture maintenance fires in Brazil. In addition to the emission of large amounts of particulate matter, hazardous air pollutants such as benzene and acrolein are emitted in significant amounts and could contribute to adverse health effects in exposed populations.

Beschreibung: The same prescribed anthropogenic aerosol forcing was implemented into three climate models. The atmosphere components of these participating climate models were the GAMIL, ECHAM, and CAM models. Ensemble simulations were carried out to obtain a reliable estimate of anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF). The ensemble mean ERFs from these three participating models with this aerosol forcing were −0.27, −0.63, and −0.54 W∙m−2. The model diversity in ERF is clearly reduced as compared with those based on the models’ own default approaches (−1.98, −0.21, and −2.22 W∙m−2). This is consistent with the design of this aerosol forcing. The modeled ERF can be decomposed into two basic components, i.e., the instantaneous radiative forcing (RF) from aerosol–radiation interactions (RFari) and the aerosol-induced changes in cloud forcing (△Fcloud*). For the three participating models, the model diversity in RFari (−0.21, −0.33, and −0.29 W∙m−2) could be constrained by reducing the differences in natural aerosol radiative forcings. However, it was difficult to figure out the reason for the model diversity in △Fcloud* (−0.05, −0.28, and −0.24 W∙m−2), which was the dominant source of the model diversity in ERF. The variability of modeled ERF was also studied. Ensemble simulations showed that the modeled RFs were very stable. The rapid adjustments (ERF − RF) had an important role to play in the quantification of the perturbation of ERF. Fortunately, the contribution from the rapid adjustments to the mean ERF was very small. This study also showed that we should pay attention to the difference between the aerosol climate effects we want and the aerosol climate effects we calculate.

Beschreibung: Residential coal combustion is one of the most significant sources of carbonaceous aerosols in the Highveld region of South Africa, significantly affecting the local and regional climate. This study investigated single coal-burning particles emitted when using different fire-ignition techniques (top-lit up-draft versus bottom-lit up-draft) and air ventilation rates (defined by the number of air holes above and below the fire grate) in selected informal braziers. Aerosol samples were collected on nucleopore filters at the Sustainable Energy Technology and Research Centre Laboratory, University of Johannesburg. The individual particles (~700) were investigated using a scanning electron microscope equipped with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX). Two distinct forms of spherical organic particles (SOPs) were identified, one less oxidized than the other. The particles were further classified into electronically dark and bright. The EDX analysis showed that 70% of the dark spherical organic particles had higher (~60%) relative oxygen content than in the bright SOPs. The morphology of spherical organic particles were quantified and classified into four categories: ~50% were bare single particles; ~35% particles were aggregated and formed diffusion accretion chains; 10% had inclusions, and 5% were deformed due to impaction on filter material during sampling. This study concludes that there are two distinct kinds of coal burning spherical organic particles and that dark SOPs are less volatile than bright SOPs. The authors also show that these spherical organic particles are similar in nature and characteristics to tar balls observed in biomass combustion and that they have the potential to absorb sunlight thereby affecting the earth’s radiative budget and climate. This study provides insights into the mixing states, morphology, and possible formation mechanisms of these organic particles from residential coal combustion in informal stoves.

Beschreibung: We present the framework of the modeling package IonoSeis. This software models Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) derived slant total electron content (sTEC) perturbations in the ionosphere due to the interaction of the neutral atmosphere and charged particles in the ionosphere. We use a simplified model to couple the neutral particle momentum into the ionosphere and reconstruct time series of sTEC perturbations that match observed data in both arrival time and perturbation shape. We propagate neutral atmosphere disturbances to ionospheric heights using a three-dimensional ray-tracing code in spherical coordinates called Windy Atmospheric Sonic Propagation (WASP3D), which works for a stationary or non-stationary atmospheric models. The source of the atmosphere perturbation can be an earthquake or volcanic eruption; both couple significant amounts of energy into the atmosphere in the frequency range of a few Millihertz. We demonstrate the output of the code by comparing modeled sTEC perturbation data to the observed perturbation recorded at GNSS station BTNG (Bitung, Indonesia) immediately following the 28 September 2018, Sulawesi-Palu earthquake. With this framework, we provide a software to couple the lithosphere, atmosphere, and ionosphere that can be used to study post-seismic ionospherically-derived signals.

Beschreibung: The present study explores the cloud microphysics (MPs) impact on the simulation of two convective rainfall events (CREs) over the complex topography of Andes mountains, using the Weather Research and Forecasting- Advanced Research (WRF-ARW) model. The events occurred on December 29 2015 (CRE1) and January 7 2016 (CRE2). Six microphysical parameterizations (MPPs) (Thompson, WSM6, Morrison, Goddard, Milbrandt and Lin) were tested, which had been previously applied in complex orography areas. The one-way nesting technique was applied to four domains, with horizontal resolutions of 18, 6, and 3 km for the outer ones, in which cumulus and MP parameterizations were applied, while for the innermost domain, with a resolution of 0.75 km, only MP parameterization was used. It was integrated for 36 h with National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP Final Operational Global Analysis (NFL) initial conditions at 00:00 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time). The simulations were verified using Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) brightness temperature, Ka band cloud radar, and surface meteorology variables observed at the Huancayo Observatory. All the MPPs detected the surface temperature signature of the CREs, but for CRE2, it was underestimated during its lifetime in its vicinity, matching well after the simulated event. For CRE1, all the schemes gave good estimations of 24 h precipitation, but for CRE2, Goddard and Milbrandt underestimated the 24 h precipitation in the inner domain. The Morrison and Lin configurations reproduced the general dynamics of the development of cloud systems for the two case studies. The vertical profiles of the hydrometeors simulated by different schemes showed significant differences. The best performance of the Morrison scheme for both case studies may be related to its ability to simulate the role of graupel in precipitation formation. The analysis of the maximum reflectivity field, cloud top distribution, and vertical structure of the simulated cloud field also shows that the Morrison parameterization reproduced the convective systems consistently with observations.

Beschreibung: In recent years, new and strict air quality regulations have been implemented in China. Therefore, it is of great significance to evaluate the current air pollution situation and effectiveness of actions. In this study, Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite data were used to detect the spatiotemporal characteristics of tropospheric NO2 columns over China from 2005 to 2018, including spatial distribution, seasonal cycles and long-term trends. The averaged NO2 pollution is higher in southeastern China and lower in the northwest, which are well delineated by the Heihe–Tengchong line. Furthermore, the NO2 loadings are highest in the North China Plain, with vertical column density (VCD) exceeding 13 × 1015 molec cm−2. Regarding the seasonal cycle, the NO2 loadings in eastern China is highest in winter and lowest in summer, while the western region shows the opposite feature. The amplitude of annual range increase gradually from the south to the north. If the entire period of 2005–2018 is taken into account, China has experienced little change in NO2. In fact, however, there appears to be significant trends of an increase followed by a downward tendency, with the turning point in the year 2012. In the former episode of 2005–2012, increasing trends overwhelm nearly the whole nation, especially in the Jing–Jin–Tang region, Shandong Province, and Northern Henan and Southern Hebei combined regions, where the rising rates were as high as 1.0–1.8 × 1015 molec cm−2 year−1. In contrast, the latter episode of 2013–2018 features remarkable declines in NO2 columns over China. Particularly, the regions where the decreased degree was remarkable in 2013–2018 were consistent with the regions where the upward trend was obvious in 2005–2012. Overall, this upward–downward pattern is true for most parts of China. However, some of the largest metropolises, such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, witnessed a continuous decrease in the NO2 amounts, indicating earlier and more stringent measures adopted in these areas. Finally, it can be concluded that China’s recent efforts to cut NO2 pollution are successful, especially in mega cities.

Beschreibung: The use of low-cost sensors for air quality measurements is expanding rapidly, with an associated rise in the number of citizens measuring air quality themselves. This has major implications for traditional air quality monitoring as performed by Environmental Protection Agencies. Here we reflect on the experiences of the Dutch Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) with the use of low-cost sensors, particularly NO2 and PM10/PM2.5-sensors, and related citizen science, over the last few years. Specifically, we discuss the Dutch Innovation Program for Environmental Monitoring, which comprises the development of a knowledge portal and sensor data portal, new calibration approaches for sensors, and modelling and assimilation techniques for incorporating these uncertain sensor data into air pollution models. Finally, we highlight some of the challenges that come with the use of low-cost sensors for air quality monitoring, and give some specific use-case examples. Our results show that low-cost sensors can be a valuable addition to traditional air quality monitoring, but so far, their use in official monitoring has been limited. More research is needed to establish robust calibration methods while ongoing work is also aimed at a better understanding of the public’s needs for air quality information to optimize the use of low-cost sensors.

Beschreibung: Prokaryotic microbes can become aerosolized and deposited into new environments located thousands of kilometers away from their place of origin. The Mediterranean Sea is an oligotrophic to ultra-oligotrophic marginal sea, which neighbors northern Africa (a major source of natural aerosols) and Europe (a source of mostly anthropogenic aerosols). Previous studies demonstrated that airborne bacteria deposited during dust events over the Mediterranean Sea may significantly alter the ecology and function of the surface seawater layer, yet little is known about their abundance and diversity during ‘background’ non-storm conditions. Here, we describe the abundance and genetic diversity of airborne bacteria in 16 air samples collected over an East-West transect of the entire Mediterranean Sea during non-storm conditions in April 2011. The results show that airborne bacteria represent diverse groups with the most abundant bacteria from the Firmicutes (Bacilli and Clostridia) and Proteobacteria (Alphaproteobacteria, Betaproteobacteria, and Gammaproteobacteria) phyla. Most of the bacteria in our samples have previously been observed in the air at other open ocean locations, in the air over the Mediterranean Sea during dust storms, and in the Mediterranean seawater. Airborne bacterial abundance ranged from 0.7 × 104 to 2.5 × 104 cells m−3 air, similar to abundances at other oceanic regimes. Our results demonstrate that airborne bacterial diversity is positively correlated with the mineral dust content in the aerosols and was spatially separated between major basins of the Mediterranean Sea. To our knowledge, this is the first comprehensive biogeographical dataset to assess the diversity and abundance of airborne microbes over the Mediterranean Sea. Our results shed light on the spatiotemporal distribution of airborne microbes and may have implications for dispersal and distribution of microbes (biogeography) in the ocean.

Beschreibung: This work focuses on the interaction of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) with the ambient solar corona, by studying the spatial and temporal evolution of the density fluctuations observed by the SOHO/UV Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) during the CME. The investigation is performed by applying a wavelet analysis to the HI Ly α 1216 Å line intensity fluctuations observed with UVCS during the CME occurred on 24 December 2006. Strong and coherent fluctuations, with a significant spatial periodicity of about 84 Mm ≃ 0.12 R ⊙ , are shown to develop in about an hour along the front of the CME. The results seem to indicate the Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) instability, susceptible to the deceleration of the heavier fluid of the CME front into the lighter surrounding coronal plasma, as the likely mechanism underlying the generation of the observed plasma fluctuations. This could be the first inference of the RT instability in the outer solar corona in UV, due to the transit of a CME front in the quiet coronal plasma; this interpretation is also supported by a linear magnetohydrodynamic analysis of the RT instability.

Beschreibung: Exploring the mechanism that influences the choice of urban public travel mode is an important policy research topic that can promote urban residents’ pro-environment travel (PET) behaviour and relieve the pressure on urban traffic and environmental problems. By expanding the theory of planned behaviour by considering the effects of the quality of public transport service and individual behaviour, this paper establishes a mixed PET behaviour model. Grounded theory is used to analyse data obtained from in-depth interviews, with the aim of determining the relationships among different attributes of the quality of public transport service and PET. An empirical examination in the form of a questionnaire was conducted in Changsha, China, to obtain the intensity and mechanism of various factors influencing pro-environment behaviour decision-making. The results reveal three new pieces of information. First, the influence of many psychological variables (except subjective norms) is consistent with the prediction results of the theory of planned behaviour (TPB), and the predictions of the model are accurate. More specifically, intention (0.535) and habit (0.354) are key factors in PET behaviour, while attitude (0.527) has the most significant effect on intention towards PET behaviour. Second, the perceived service quality of public transport has a direct and significant impact on intention towards PET behaviour. Satisfaction with public transport service quality exerts a mediating effect on perceived service quality and PET behaviour. More specifically, operation and management (0.808) and vehicle environment (0.809) have the most important influence on intention towards PET behaviour. Last but not least, the extent of the influence of PET behaviour varies based on travellers’ demographic characteristics. The driving age, income and ownership of private cars show the greatest impact. The perceived service quality of public transport and travellers’ social and economic characteristics all play roles in the psychology of travel decisions, and are associated with PET behaviour on several distinct levels. From the perspectives of passenger psychology, public transport service quality and personal attributes of passengers, this paper provides a scientific basis for decision-making in transportation systems and the formulation of traffic intervention strategies to promote voluntary public reductions in carbon-intensive travel behaviour.

Beschreibung: Four cross-coupled models were used to investigate the relative contributions of atmospheric and oceanic components to the asymmetry of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Strong El Niño and La Niña events related to the negative heat flux feedbacks were found to be determined mainly by the atmospheric component, and the stronger sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the warm phase did not lead to an increased SST asymmetry. The skewness of the four models could be affected by both atmospheric and oceanic components; the atmospheric component determines the strength of positive and negative SST anomalies, and the oceanic component affects the strength of the negative SST anomalies in the cold phase under the same atmospheric component group. The Bjerknes stability index (BJ index) of warm and cold phases contributed to the El Niño–La Niña SSTA asymmetries in observation, but the BJ index did not necessarily explain the El Niño–La Niña SSTA asymmetries in climate model simulations. The SST asymmetries in these four models were closely associated with convective precipitation and wind stress asymmetries, which are also determined by both the atmospheric and oceanic components.

Beschreibung: In ultrasonic equipment (anemometers and thermometers), for the measurement of parameters of atmospheric turbulence, a standard algorithm that calculates parameters from temporary structural functions constructed on the registered data is usually used. The algorithm is based on the Kolmogorov–Obukhov law. The experience of using ultrasonic meters shows that such an approach can lead to significant errors. Therefore, an improved algorithm for calculating the parameters is developed, which allows more accurate estimation of the structural characteristics of turbulent fluctuations, with an error that is not more than 10%. The algorithm was used in the development of a new ultrasonic hardware-software complex, autonomous meteorological complex AMK-03-4, which differs from similar measuring instruments of turbulent atmosphere parameters by the presence of four identical ultrasonic anemometers. The design of the complex allows not only registration of the characteristics of turbulence, but also measurement of the statistical characteristics of the spatial derivatives of turbulent temperature fluctuations and orthogonal components of wind speed along each of the axes of the Cartesian coordinate system. This makes it possible to investigate the space–time structure of turbulent meteorological fields of the surface layer of the atmosphere for subsequent applications in the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory and to study turbulent coherent structures. The new measurement data of the spatial derivatives of temperature at stable stratification (at positive Monin–Obukhov parameters) were obtained, at which the behavior of the derivatives was been investigated earlier. In the most part of the interval of positive Monin–Obukhov parameters, the vertical derivative of the temperature is close to a constant value. This fact can be considered as a new significant result in similarity theory.

Beschreibung: In this study, the atmospheric moisture transport involved in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) water cycle is examined. Observational estimates are contrasted with the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) climate simulations to evaluate the model’s ability to capture this transport. We explore the role of large circulation in determining the regional water cycle by analyzing key systematic errors in the model. MetUM exhibits robust errors in its representation of the summer Asian-Pacific monsoon system, including dry biases in the Indian peninsula and wet biases in the tropical Indian Ocean and tropical West Pacific. Such errors are consistent with errors in the atmospheric moisture convergence in the area. Diabatic heating biases in the Maritime Continent domain are shown, via nudging sensitivity experiments, to play a crucial role in remotely forcing the model circulation and moisture transport errors in the East Asian area. We also examine changes in the regional water cycle in response to interannual variability of the West Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). It is shown by water budget analysis that, although the model in general is not able to faithfully reproduce the response on a month to month basis, it gives comparable seasonal trends in regional moisture convergence and precipitation associated with shifts of the WPSH.

Beschreibung: The present paper aims to elucidate impacts of climate change on the availability and security of water and energy in the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA region; including the Eastern Mediterranean) in the context of the water–energy nexus. It largely builds on existing knowledge and understanding and aims to present a review of existing information on this topic. The region is particularly challenged by a number of factors, including the large variability of bio-geographical characteristics, extreme population growth over the last few decades, and substantial societal and economical transitions, as well as armed conflicts in some of the countries in the region. Anticipated changes in climate conditions will exacerbate the challenges regarding water and energy security in the region. Major impacts of climate change include a significant increase in summer temperatures, which will lead to a growing number of heat waves, primarily in urban structures. A general decrease in precipitation in many of the MENA countries is foreseen, resulting in enhanced droughts and a growing number of dry spells. In addressing energy and water scarcities and their mutual interrelationships, an integrated water–energy nexus concept offers promising prospects to improve environmental, climate, human, and political security. However, only very few countries in the MENA region have presently implemented such a concept. Mitigation and adaptation strategies addressing water and energy scarcity include enhanced efficiency of resource use, integrated technology assessments regarding electricity generation, and a stronger reliance on renewable/solar technologies. While looking at the MENA region as a whole, some emphasis will be given to Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean.

Beschreibung: Transparent exopolymer particles (TEP) act as a major transport mechanism for organic matter (OM) to the sea surface microlayer (SML) via bubble scavenging, and into the atmosphere via bubble bursting. However; little is known about the effects of bubble scavenging on TEP enrichment in the SML. This study examined the effects of several bubbling conditions and algae species on the enrichment of TEP in the SML. TEP enrichment in the SML was enhanced by bubbling, with a larger impact from bubbling rate than bubble size and increasing enrichment over time. Depth profiles showed that any TEP aggregates formed in the underlying water (ULW) were rapidly (〈2 min) transported to the SML, and that TEP was entrained in the SML by bubbling. Species experiments determined that the presence of different phytoplankton species and their subsequent release of precursor material further enhance the effectiveness of TEP enrichment via bubble scavenging.

Beschreibung: A better knowledge of the local and regional sources of the atmospheric particulate matter provides policy makers with the proper awareness when acting to improve air quality, in order to protect public health. A source apportionment study of the carbonaceous aerosol in Naples (Italy) is presented here, in order to improve this understanding in a vulnerable urban area. The aim of this study is quantifying directly fossil and non-fossil contributions to carbonaceous aerosol, by means of radiocarbon measurements. This is the first time that such an approach is implemented in this area. Fine particles with diameter ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5) were collected daily on top of a building in the city center, from November 2016 until January 2017. The carbonaceous aerosol was separated into organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC), by a two-step thermal desorption method. Subsequent radiocarbon analysis enabled the partitioning of the major sources of carbonaceous aerosol into fossil and non-fossil ones by applying radiocarbon isotopic mass balance. The PM2.5 concentration was on average 29 ± 3 µg⁄m3 (mean ± standard error; n = 18), with a maximum of 68.6 ± 0.7 µg⁄m3 on a day when air masses back-trajectories suggest a local origin and stagnant airflow conditions in the region. The carbonaceous component accounts for roughly half of the PM2.5 mass. Fossil fuel emissions are a minor source of OC (23%), but the dominant source of EC (66%), which is directly emitted during combustion processes. However, overall only 30% of the total carbon is of fossil origin, accounting for 14% of PM2.5 mass. Surprisingly, a comparable contribution is due to primary biomass burning carbon, which accounts in total for 15% of PM2.5 mass. Traffic pollution, the main cause of fossil fuel emissions in urban areas, is a significant, but not the predominant source of carbonaceous particle concentration. These findings support the conclusion of a predominant contribution from non-fossil sources to the carbon in airborne particulate matter, which policy makers should take into account when planning mitigation strategies to improve urban air quality.

Beschreibung: We present results of the studies of internal gravity waves based on altitude-time dependences of the temperature and the density of the neutral component and the velocity of the vertical plasma motion at altitudes of the lower ionosphere (60–130 km). The vertical plasma velocity, which in the specified altitude range is equal to the velocity of the neutral component, the temperature, and the density of the neutral atmosphere are determined by the method of the resonant scattering of radio waves by artificial periodic irregularities (APIs) of the ionosphere plasma. We have developed an API technique and now we are evolving it for studying the ionosphere and the neutral atmosphere using the Sura heating facility (56.1 N; 46.1 E), Nizhny Novgorod, Russia. An advantage of the API technique is the opportunity to determine the parameters of the undisturbed natural environment under a disturbance of the ionosphere by a field of powerful high frequency radio waves. Analysis of altitude-time variations of the neutral temperature, the density, and the vertical plasma velocity allows one to estimate periods of atmospheric waves propagation. Wavelike variations with a period from 5 min to 3 h and more are clearly determined.

Beschreibung: Desert dust is now recognized as a major health hazard. However, there still exists a lack of measurements of desert dust atmospheric loads in regions located in the vicinity of the major desert areas, where a growing part of the world population is living. Dust emission is a sporadic and intense phenomenon so that the classical air quality standards should not be appropriate to reflect the real population exposure to desert dust. In order to give some insight to answer this question, PM10 concentrations were continuously measured at a five-minute time step in southern Tunisia from February 2014 to February 2019. The daily and annual PM10 concentrations were first discussed according to the Tunisian air quality standards: In this relatively remote area, close to dust source, these standards were respected at the annual, but no longer at the daily scale. Measurements performed at a high temporal resolution (five minutes) allowed to discriminate the different situations that led to exceed Tunisian daily standards in southern Tunisia. In particular, intense (five-minute PM10 concentrations up to more than 1500 µg m−3) and short-lived (a few hours) dust outbreaks were regularly observed. This result raises the question of the necessity of defining specific air quality standards at the sub-daily scale in countries affected by intense desert dust outbreaks.

Beschreibung: Based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method, this study explores the differences and similarities in multiple time-scale characteristics of summer air temperature (T) and equivalent temperature (Te) over China during 1961–2017, using daily meteorological observations collected at 412 stations in China. Their relationships to global sea surface temperature variations is also discussed. Results show that both T and Te can be decomposed into five components, which includes multiple timescales, from interannual to long-term trends. The spatial patterns of each timescale’s leading mode show that the variations of Te are generally larger than that of T. Meanwhile, both T and Te are dominated by their inter-annual, multi-decadal variations and the non-linear trend. High correlations of T and Te can also be found in these major scales. The related sea surface temperature variations in these major scales also show consistent patterns, which correspond to El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the global warming trend in the sea, respectively. In other scales, both spatial patterns of T and Te and the corresponding correlation patterns with sea surface temperature are distinguishable. The current results explore the compound changes of surface temperature-humidity during the past five decades from a new perspective, which provides some insights for a better understanding of the possible causes of climate change over China.

Beschreibung: We analyse and quantify the recurrences of European temperature extremes using 32 historical simulations (1900–1999) of the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and 8 historical simulations (1971–2005) from the EUROCORDEX experiment. We compare the former simulations to the 20th Century Reanalysis (20CRv2c) dataset to compute recurrence spectra of temperature in Europe. We find that, (1) the spectra obtained by the model ensemble mean are generally consistent with those of 20CR; (2) spectra biases have a strong regional dependence; (3) the resolution does not change the order of magnitude of spectral biases between models and reanalysis, (4) the spread in recurrence biases is larger for cold extremes. Our analysis of biases provides a new way of selecting a subset of the CMIP5 ensemble to obtain an optimal estimate of temperature recurrences for a range of time-scales.

Beschreibung: This study evaluates the predictability of the formation phase of a radiation fog event observed during the night of 31 October 2015 to 01 November 2015 in the north-east of France at three sites managed by OPE (Observatoire Pérenne de l’Environnement). The fog layer shows significantly different behaviors at the three areas, which are located only a few kilometers apart. Three fog life cycles were observed: the formation of a dense adiabatic fog, the formation of a thin patchy fog, or no fog formation despite favorable conditions. This event was studied with the Meso-NH numerical mesoscale model at two horizontal resolutions, 500 m and 50 m. Simulations at 50 m allow estimation of the spread of the predicted parameters over the heterogeneous terrain studied. These numerical simulations strongly suggest that this event involved numerous interactions and complex circulations. The wind above the nocturnal boundary layer greatly affects the transition of shallow patchy fog into thick adiabatic fog. These numerical simulations also show that the occurrence and type of fog could be very different over a small but heterogeneous area. It is also interesting to note that the spread of the simulated parameters was very high during the transition from shallow fog to a deep fog layer. The spread was concentrated during the regime transition between the fog formation and its maturity. This appeared to be the result of the complex interplay of processes at numerous ranges of scale. A new concept called “pseudo-process diagram” is presented. These pseudo-process diagrams are very good tools to analyze fog, and allow a good illustration of the spread of fog during this chaotic phase. This kind of concept seems a promising tool to analyze fog predictability in depth.

Beschreibung: In this research, for the first time, we present the evaluation of a semi-continuous pit manure recharge system on the mitigation of ammonia (NH3) and hydrogen sulfide (H2S) emissions from a swine finisher barn. The pit recharge system is practiced on many swine farms in the Republic of Korea, primarily for improving air quality in the barn. It consists of an integrated waste management system where the fraction of stored manure is pumped out (10× of the daily production of manure, 3× a day); solids are separated and composted, while the aerobically treated liquid fraction is then returned to the pit. We compared emissions from two 240-pig rooms, one equipped with a pit recharge system, and the other operating a conventional slurry pit under the slatted floor. Mean reduction of NH3 and H2S emissions were 49 ± 6% and 82 ± 7%, respectively, over 14 days of measurements. The removal efficiency of H2S was higher than NH3, likely because the pH of aerobically treated liquid manure remained slightly above 8. More work is warranted to assess the N balance in this system and the emissions of odor and greenhouse gasses (GHGs). It is also expected that it will be possible to control the NH3 and H2S removal rates by controlling the nitrification level of the liquid manure in the aerobic treatment system.

Beschreibung: We present observations of X-rays from laboratory sparks created in the air at atmospheric pressure by applying an impulse voltage with long (250 µs) rise-time. X-ray production in 35 and 46 cm gaps for three different electrode configurations was studied. The results demonstrate, for the first time, the production of X-rays in gaps subjected to switching impulses. The low rate of rise of the voltage in switching impulses does not significantly reduce the production of X-rays. Additionally, the timing of the X-ray occurrence suggests the possibility that the mechanism of X-ray production by sparks is related to the collision of streamers of opposite polarity.

Beschreibung: Aerosol mixing state significantly affects concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), wet removal rates, thermodynamic properties, heterogeneous chemistry, and aerosol optical properties, with implications for human health and climate. Over the last two decades, significant research effort has gone into finding computationally-efficient methods for representing the most important aspects of aerosol mixing state in air pollution, weather prediction, and climate models. In this review, we summarize the interactions between mixing-state and aerosol hygroscopicity, optical properties, equilibrium thermodynamics and heterogeneous chemistry. We focus on the effects of simplified assumptions of aerosol mixing state on CCN concentrations, wet deposition, and aerosol absorption. We also summarize previous approaches for representing aerosol mixing state in atmospheric models, and we make recommendations regarding the representation of aerosol mixing state in future modelling studies.

Beschreibung: This paper reports estimated maintenance-cleaning costs, cost savings and cleaning interval increases for structural surfaces and windows in Europe obtainable by reducing the air pollution. Methodology and data from the ICP-materials project were used. The average present (2018) cleaning costs for sheltered white painted steel surfaces and modern glass due to air pollution over background, was estimated to be ~2.5 Euro/m2∙year. Hypothetical 50% reduction in the air pollution was found to give savings in these cleaning costs of ~1.5 Euro/m2∙year. Observed reduction in the air pollution, from 2002–2005 until 2011–2014, have probably increased the cleaning interval for white painted steel with ~100% (from 12 to 24 years), representing reductions in the single intervention cleaning costs from 7 to 4%/year (= % of one cleaning investment, per year during the cleaning interval) and for the modern glass with ~65% (from 0.85 to 1.3 years), representing reductions in the cleaning cost from 124 to 95%/year. The cleaning cost reductions, obtainable by 50% reduction in air pollution, would have been ~3 %/year for white painted steel and ~60%/year for the modern glass, representing ~100 and 50% additional cleaning interval increases. These potential cleaning cost savings are significantly higher than previously reported for the weathering of Portland limestone ornament and zinc monuments.

Beschreibung: A meridional Northern Hemisphere (NH) circulation epoch, which began in 1957, is marked by changes in the temperature and precipitation regimes over southwest Russia and central USA depending on the occurrence of NH atmospheric circulation regimes. A classification scheme proposed in 1968, and studied later put forth 13 NH circulation types, fitting more broadly into four groups, two of which are more zonal type flows and two of which are more meridional flows. Using the results of a previous study that showed four distinct sub-periods during the 1957–2017 epoch, the temperature and precipitation regimes of both regions were studied across all seasons in order to characterize modern day climate variability and their suitability for vegetation growth. Then the Hydrologic Coefficient, which combined the temperature and precipitation variables, was briefly studied. The most optimal conditions for vegetation growth, positive temperature and precipitation anomalies, were noted during the period 1970–1980 for southwest Russia, which was dominated by an increasingly more zonal flow regime in the Belgorod region and NH in general. For the central USA, the HTC showed more ideal conditions for agriculture in recent years due to favorable precipitation occurrence. In southwest Russia, variable precipitation regimes were noted during the meridional flow periods, and with the increase in temperature (since 1998), these can adversely affect the hydrothermal characteristics of the growing season. Finally, a comparison of the 13 NH circulation types with several teleconnection indexes demonstrated the robustness of the NH flow regime classification scheme used here.

Beschreibung: Observational data from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory during four summers (2014–2017) has been used to investigate deep convection systems (DCSs) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its south slope (SS). The frequency, geographical distribution diurnal variation, and vertical structure of DCSs over the TP and SS are compared among these two regions. The frequency of DCSs over the SS (0.98%) was far higher than over the TP (0.15%), suggesting that stronger DCSs occur to the east and south of the TP. The maximum number of DCS occurred in July and August. A clear diurnal variation in DCS was found over the whole region, DCSs over the TP and SS both have a greatest amplitude in the afternoon. The probability of DCSs from 1200 to 1800 local time (LT) was 76.3% and 44.1% over TP and SS respectively, whereas the probability of DCSs being generated from 2200 (LT) to 0600 on the next day LT was 0.03% and 33.1% over the TP and SS respectively. There was a very low frequency of DCSs over the TP during the night. Five special echo top heights were used to investigate the vertical structure of DCSs. DCSs over the TP were both weaker and smaller than those over the SS.

Beschreibung: A limited-area kilometre scale numerical weather prediction system is applied to evaluate the effect of refined surface data assimilation on short-range heavy precipitation forecasts. The refinements include a spatially dependent background error representation, use of a flow-dependent data assimilation technique, and use of data from a satellite-based scatterometer instrument. The effect of the enhancements on short-term prediction of intense precipitation events is confirmed through a number of case studies. Verification scores and subjective evaluation of one particular case points at a clear impact of the enhanced surface data assimilation on short-range heavy precipitation forecasts and suggest that it also tends to slightly improve them. Although this is not strictly statistically demonstrated, it is consistent with the expectation that a better surface state should improve rainfall forecasts.

Beschreibung: Strong El Niño events alter tropical climates and may lead to a negative carbon balance in tropical forests and consequently a disruption to the global carbon cycle. The complexity of tropical forests and the lack of data from these regions hamper the assessment of the spatial distribution of El Niño impacts on these ecosystems. Typically, maps of climate anomaly are used to detect areas of greater risk, ignoring baseline climate conditions and forest cover. Here, we integrated climate anomalies from the 1982–1983, 1997–1998, and 2015–2016 El Niño events with baseline climate and forest edge extent, using a risk assessment approach to hypothetically assess the spatial and temporal distributions of El Niño risk over tropical forests under several risk scenarios. The drivers of risk varied temporally and spatially. Overall, the relative risk of El Niño has been increasing driven mainly by intensified forest fragmentation that has led to a greater chance of fire ignition and increased mean annual air temperatures. We identified areas of repeated high risk, where conservation efforts and fire control measures should be focused to avoid future forest degradation and negative impacts on the carbon cycle.

Beschreibung: In this study, aridity data and tree ring data were collected in Northern Serbia, in Southeast (SE) Banat, a subregion within Vojvodina, and Vojvodina at large. They were each investigated independently. The De Martonne Aridity Index and the Forestry Aridity Index are derived from examining the relationship between precipitation and surface air temperature data sets sourced from seven meteorological stations in SE Banat, and from 10 meteorological stations located in Vojvodina as a whole. Vojvodina is a large territory and used as the control area, for the period 1949–2017. The Palmer Drought Severity Index was derived for the period 1927–2016, for both SE Banat and the totality of Vojvodina. The results of the Tree Ring Width Index were obtained from samples collected in or around the villages of Vlajkovac and Šušara, both located in SE Banat, for the period 1927–2017. These tree ring records were compared with three previous aridity and drought indices, and the meteorological data on the surface air temperature and the precipitation, with the objective being to evaluate the response of tree growth to climate dynamics in the SE Banat subregion. It was noted that the significant positive temperature trends recorded in both areas were too insufficient to trigger any trends in aridity or the Tree Ring Width Index, as neither displayed any change. Instead, it appears that these climatic parameters only changed in response to the precipitation trend, which remained unchanged during the investigated period, rather than in response to the temperature trend. It appears that the forest vegetation in the investigated areas was not affected significantly by climate change in response to the dominant temperature increase.

Beschreibung: Rainfall patterns in the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) are highly influenced by local topography. It has been a forecasting challenge for the main US forecast models. This study investigates the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to improve upon forecasts, with particular emphasis on the rain shadow common to the southern end of the SFBA. Three rain events were evaluated: a mid-season atmospheric river (AR) event with copious rains; a typical non-AR frontal passage rain event; and an area-wide rain event in which zero rain was recorded in the southern SFBA. The results show that, with suitable choices of parameterizations, the WRF model with a resolution around 1 km can forecast the observed rainfall patterns with good accuracy, and would be suitable for operational use, especially to water and emergency managers. Additionally, the three synoptic situations were investigated for further insight into the common ingredients for either flooding rains or strong rain shadow events.

Beschreibung: We present the inversions (back-calculations or optimizations) of dust emissions for a severe winter dust event over East Asia in November 2016. The inversion system based on a fixed-lag ensemble Kalman smoother is newly implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting model and is coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). The assimilated observations are the hourly aerosol optical depths (AODs) from the next-generation geostationary satellite Himawari-8. The posterior total dust emissions (2.59 Tg) for this event are 3.8 times higher than the priori total dust emissions (0.68 Tg) during 25–27 November 2016. The net result is that the simulated aerosol horizontal and vertical distributions are both in better agreement with the assimilated Himawari-8 observations and independent observations from the ground-based AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET), the satellite-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO). The developed emission inversion approach, combined with the geostationary satellite observations, can be very helpful for properly estimating the Asian dust emissions.

Beschreibung: Drought is one of the most common natural disasters on a global scale and has a wide range of socioeconomic impacts. In this study, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of meteorological drought in a typical agricultural province of China (i.e., Shaanxi Province) based on the Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). We also investigated the response of winter wheat and summer maize yields to drought by a correlation analysis between the detrended SPEI and the time series of yield anomaly during the crop growing season. Moreover, agricultural drought risks were assessed across the province using a conceptual risk assessment model that emphasizes the combined role of drought hazard and vulnerability. The results indicated that droughts have become more severe and frequent in the study area after 1995. The four typical timescales of SPEI showed a consistent decreasing trend during the period 1960–2016; the central plains of the province showed the most significant decreasing trend, where is the main producing area of the province’s grain. Furthermore, the frequency and intensity of drought increased significantly after 1995; the most severe drought episodes occurred in 2015–2016. Our results also showed that the sensitivity of crop yield to drought varies with the timescales of droughts. Droughts at six-month timescales that occurred in March can explain the yield losses for winter wheat to the greatest extent, while the yield losses of summer maize are more sensitive to droughts at three-month timescales that occurred in August. The assessment agricultural drought risk showed that some areas in the north of the province are exposed to a higher risk of drought and other regions are dominated by low risk.

Beschreibung: Biomass pellets are a source of renewable energy; although, the air pollution and exposure risks posed by the emissions from burning pellets in biomass boilers (BBs) are uncertain. The present study examines the organic species in fine particle matter (PM) emissions from an BB firing switchgrass (SwG) and hardwood (HW) biomass pellets using different test cycles. The organic and elemental carbon (OC and EC) content and select semivolatile organic compounds (SVOCs) in filter-collected PM were identified and quantified using thermal-optical analysis and gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS), respectively. Fine PM emissions from the BB ranged from 0.4 g/kg to 2.91 g/kg of pellets burned of which 40% ± 17% w/w was carbon. The sum of GC–MS quantified SVOCs in the PM emissions varied from 0.13 to 0.41 g/g OC. Relatively high levels of oxygenated compounds were observed in the PM emissions, and the most predominant individual SVOC constituent was levoglucosan (12.5–320 mg/g OC). The effect of boiler test cycle on emissions was generally greater than the effect due to pellet fuel type. Organic matter emissions increased at lower loads, owing to less than optimal combustion performance. Compared with other types of residential wood combustion studies, pellet burning in the current BB lowered PM emissions by nearly an order of magnitude. PM emitted from burning pellets in boilers tested across multiple studies also contains comparatively less carbon; however, the toxic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) in the PM tested across these pellet-burning studies varied substantially, and produced 2–10 times more benzo[k]fluoranthene, dibenz[a,h]anthracene and indeno[1,2,3-c,d]pyrene on average. These results suggest that further toxicological evaluation of biomass pellet burning emissions is required to properly understand the risks posed.

Beschreibung: Mercury (Hg) is a global pollutant with human health and ecological impacts. Gas exchange between terrestrial surfaces and the atmosphere is an important route for Hg to enter and exit ecosystems. Here, we used a dynamic flux chamber to measure gaseous elemental Hg (GEM) exchange over different landscapes in Mississippi, including in situ measurements for a wetland (soil and water), forest floor, pond, mowed field and grass-covered lawn, as well as mesocosm experiments for three different agricultural soils. Fluxes were measured during both the summer and winter. Mean ambient levels of GEM ranged between 0.93–1.57 ng m−3. GEM emission fluxes varied diurnally with higher daytime fluxes, driven primarily by solar radiation, and lower and more stable nighttime fluxes, dependent mostly on temperature. GEM fluxes (ng m−2 h−1) were seasonally dependent with net emission during the summer (mean 2.15, range 0.32 to 4.92) and net deposition during the winter (−0.12, range −0.32 to 0.12). Total Hg concentrations in the soil ranged from 17.1 ng g−1 to 127 ng g−1 but were not a good predictor of GEM emissions. GEM flux and soil temperature were correlated over the forest floor, and the corresponding activation energy for Hg emission was ~31 kcal mol−1 using the Arrhenius equation. There were significant differences in GEM fluxes between the habitats with emissions for grass 〉 wetland soil 〉 mowed field 〉 pond 〉 wetland water ≈ forest ≈ agriculture soils. Overall, we demonstrate that these diverse landscapes serve as both sources and sinks for airborne Hg depending on the season and meteorological factors.

Beschreibung: During the Japanese intercomparison study, Japan’s Study for Reference Air Quality Modeling (J-STREAM), it was found that wintertime SO42– concentrations were underestimated over Japan with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system. Previously, following two development phases, model performance was improved by refining the Fe- and Mn-catalyzed oxidation pathways and by including an additional aqueous-phase pathway via NO2 oxidation. In a third phase, we examined a winter haze period in December 2016, involving a gas-phase oxidation pathway whereby three stabilized Criegee intermediates (SCI) were incorporated into the model. We also included options for a kinetic mass transfer aqueous-phase calculation. According to statistical analysis, simulations compared well with hourly SO42– observations in Tokyo. Source sensitivities for four domestic emission sources (transportation, stationary combustion, fugitive VOC, and agricultural NH3) were investigated. During the haze period, contributions from other sources (overseas and volcanic emissions) dominated, while domestic sources, including transportation and fuel combustion, played a role in enhancing SO42– concentrations around Tokyo Bay. Updating the aqueous phase metal catalyzed and NO2 oxidation pathways lead to increase contribution from other sources, and the additional gas phase SCI chemistry provided a link between fugitive VOC emission and SO42– concentration via changes in O3 concentration.

Beschreibung: The precipitation diurnal cycle (PDC) varies with the season and location. Its link to large-scale weather circulations has been studied in different regions. However, comparable information is lacking for Central Europe. Two decades of hourly precipitation data were combined with records of objective weather patterns over Germany, focusing on the general atmospheric wind directions (WD). The PDC is characterized by the frequency and the average amount of hourly precipitation. The precipitation frequency generally has two peaks: one in the morning and the other in the afternoon. The morning peak of the precipitation amount is small compared to that of the afternoon peak. Remarkably, WD has a prominent influence on the PDC. Days with southwesterly WD have a high afternoon peak and a lower morning peak, while days with northwesterly WD have a high morning peak and a lower afternoon peak. Furthermore, the seasonal variations of PDC are dominated by the seasonal frequency of WD classes. This study presents a general overview of the PDC in Germany with regard to its variation with seasonality, geographical location, elevation, and WD.

Beschreibung: This study presents a new method for determining a neutral wind velocity vector. The basis of the method is measurement of the group velocities of internal gravity waves. Using the case of the Boussinesq dispersion relation, we demonstrated the ability to measure a neutral wind velocity vector using the group velocity and wave vector data. An algorithm for obtaining the group velocity vector from the wave vector spectrum is proposed. The new method was tested by comparing the obtained winter wind pattern with wind data from other sources. Testing the new method showed that it is in quantitative agreement with the Fabry–Pérot interferometer wind measurements for zonal and vertical wind velocities. The differences in meridional wind velocities are also discussed here. Of particular interest were the results related to the measurement of vertical wind velocities. We demonstrated that two independent methods gave the presence of vertical wind velocities with amplitude of ~20 m/s. Estimation of vertical wind contribution to plasma drift velocity indicated the importance of vertical wind measurements and the need to take them into account in physical and empirical models of the ionosphere and thermosphere.

Beschreibung: In the context of the FrenchGerman space lidar mission MERLIN (MEthane Remote LIdar missioN) dedicated to the determination of the atmospheric methane content, an end-to-end mission simulator is being developed. In order to check whether the instrument design meets the performance requirements, simulations have to count all the sources of noise on the measurements like the optical energy variability induced by speckle. Speckle is due to interference as the lidar beam is quasi monochromatic. Speckle contribution to the error budget has to be estimated but also simulated. In this paper, the speckle theory is revisited and applied to MERLIN lidar and also to the DLR (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft und Raumfahrt) demonstrator lidar CHARM-F. Results show: on the signal path, speckle noise depends mainly on the size of the illuminated area on ground; on the solar flux, speckle is fully negligible both because of the pixel size and the optical filter spectral width; on the energy monitoring path a decorrelation mechanism is needed to reduce speckle noise on averaged data. Speckle noises for MERLIN and CHARM-F can be simulated by Gaussian noises with only one random draw by shot separately for energy monitoring and signal paths.

Beschreibung: In this study, a passive sampler for gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) was developed and applied to field monitoring. Three Radiello® diffusive bodies with gold-coated beads as Hg adsorbent were installed in an acrylic external shield. Hg uptake mass linearly increased as the deployment time increased until 8 weeks with an average gaseous Hg concentration of 2 ng m−3. The average of the experimental sampling rate (SR) was 0.083 m3 day−1 and showed a good correlation with theoretical SRs, indicating that a major adsorption mechanism was molecular diffusion. Nonetheless, the experimental SR was approximately 33% lower than the modeled SR, which could be associated with inefficient uptake of GEM in the sampler or uncertainty in constraining model parameters. It was shown that the experimental SR was statistically affected by temperature and wind speed but the calibration equation for the SR by meteorological variables should be obtained with a wider range of variables in further investigation. When the uptake rates were compared to the active Hg measurements, the correlation was not significant because the passive sampler was not sufficiently adept at detecting a small difference in the GEM concentration of from 1.8 to 2.0 ng m−3. However, the results for spatial Hg concentrations measured near cement plants in Korea suggest a possible application in field monitoring. Future research is needed to fully employ the developed passive sampler in quantitative assessment of Hg concentrations.

Beschreibung: In this study, the moisture sources acting over each sea (Weddell, King Haakon VII, East Antarctic, Amundsen-Bellingshausen, and Ross-Amundsen) of the Southern Ocean during 1980–2015 are identified with the FLEXPART Lagrangian model and by using two approaches: backward and forward analyses. Backward analysis provides the moisture sources (positive values of Evaporation minus Precipitation, E − P 〉 0), while forward analysis identifies the moisture sinks (E − P 〈 0). The most important moisture sources for the austral seas come from midlatitude storm tracks, reaching a maximum between austral winter and spring. The maximum in moisture sinks, in general, occurs in austral end-summer/autumn. There is a negative correlation (higher with 2-months lagged) between moisture sink and sea ice concentration (SIC), indicating that an increase in the moisture sink can be associated with the decrease in the SIC. This correlation is investigated by focusing on extremes (high and low) of the moisture sink over the Weddell Sea. Periods of high (low) moisture sinks show changes in the atmospheric circulation with a consequent positive (negative) temperature anomaly contributing to decreasing (increasing) the SIC over the Weddell Sea. This study also suggests possible relationships between the positive (negative) phase of the Southern Annular Mode with the increase (decrease) in the moisture that travels from the midlatitude sources to the Weddell Sea.

Beschreibung: Mexico City constitutes one of the largest concentrations of population on the planet and is settled in a valley that, before the 16th century, had a lake system. The lakes were desiccated artificially, and currently, only small lakes remain. The impact of the lake system desiccation on precipitation was studied by performing numerical experiments: with the ancient lake system and without it. The experiments were carried out with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a lake model for two months, using identical initial and boundary conditions, where only the system and lake physics were changed. The mean daily accumulated precipitation reduced when the system was removed. Additionally, the hourly distribution of rainfall changed from a relatively small diurnal variability when there was a lake system to a larger variability with a peak in the afternoon when the system was removed. Extreme precipitation events became more intense in the simulations with lakes. When the lakes were removed, the diurnal temperature range increased, and the boundary layer height became more variable, with a higher daily maximum. The results presented here show that the WRF-Lake model leads to opposite results compared to those with a non-coupled lake.

Beschreibung: In this study, we investigated the possible teleconnection between PM10 concentrations in South Korea and Arctic Sea ice concentrations at inter-annual time scales using observed PM10 data from South Korea, NCEP R2 data, and NOAA Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) data from 2001 to 2018. From the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, we found that the first mode (TC1) was a large-scale mode for PM10 in South Korea and explained about 27.4% of the total variability. Interestingly, the TC1 is more dominantly influenced by the horizontal ventilation effect than the vertical atmospheric stability effect. The pollution potential index (PPI), which is defined by the weighted average of the two ventilation effects, is highly correlated with the TC1 of PM10 at a correlation coefficient of 0.75, indicating that the PPI is a good measure for PM10 in South Korea at inter-annual time scales. Regression maps show that the decrease of SIC over the Barents Sea is significantly correlated with weakening of high pressure over the Ural mountain range region, the anomalous high pressure at 500 hPa over the Korean peninsula, and the weakening of the Siberian High and Aleutian low. Moreover, these patterns are similar to the correlation pattern with the PPI, suggesting that the variability of SIC over the Barents Sea may play an important role in modulating the variability of PM10 in South Korea through teleconnection from the Barents Sea to the Korean peninsula via Eurasia.

Beschreibung: Spatially and temporally resolved air quality characterization is critical for community-scale exposure studies and for developing future air quality mitigation strategies. Monitoring-based assessments can characterize local air quality when enough monitors are deployed. However, modeling plays a vital role in furthering the understanding of the relative contributions of emissions sources impacting the community. In this study, we combine dispersion modeling and measurements from the Kansas City TRansportation local-scale Air Quality Study (KC-TRAQS) and use data fusion methods to characterize air quality. The KC-TRAQS study produced a rich dataset using both traditional and emerging measurement technologies. We used dispersion modeling to support field study design and analysis. In the study design phase, the presumptive placement of fixed monitoring sites and mobile monitoring routes have been corroborated using a research screening tool C-PORT to assess the spatial and temporal coverage relative to the entire study area extent. In the analysis phase, dispersion modeling was used in combination with observations to help interpret the KC-TRAQS data. We extended this work to use data fusion methods to combine observations from stationary, mobile measurements, and dispersion model estimates.

Beschreibung: Precipitation is a key climatic variable that connects the processes of atmosphere and land surface, and it plays a leading role in the water cycle. However, the vast area of Northwest China, its complex geographical environment, and its scarce observation data make it difficult to deeply understand the temporal and spatial variation of precipitation. This paper establishes a statistical downscaling model to downscale the monthly precipitation in the inland river basin of Northwest China with the Tarim River Basin (TRB) as a typical representation. This method combines polynomial regression and machine learning, and it uses the batch gradient descent (BGD) algorithm to train the regression model. We downscale the monthly precipitation and obtain a dataset from January 2001 to December 2017 with a spatial resolution of 1 km × 1 km. The results show that the downscaling model presents a good performance in precipitation simulation with a high resolution, and it is more effective than ordinary polynomial regression. We also investigate the temporal and spatial variations of precipitation in the TRB based on the downscaling dataset. Analyses illustrate that the annual precipitation in the southern foothills of the Tianshan Mountains and the North Kunlun Mountains showed a significant upward trend during the study periods, while the annual precipitation in the central plains presented a significant downward trend.

Beschreibung: This study aims to review the physical theory and parametrizations associated to Turbulent Kinetic Energy Density Function (STKE). The bibliographic references bring a broad view of the physical problem, mathematical techniques and modeling of turbulent kinetic energy dynamics in the convective boundary layer. A simplified model based on the dynamical equation for the STKE, in an isotropic and homogeneous turbulent flow regime, is done by formulating and considering the isotropic inertial energy transfer and viscous dissipation terms. This model is described by the Cauchy Problem and solved employing the Method of Characteristics. Therefore, a discussion on Linear First Order Partial Differential Equation, its existence, and uniqueness of solution has been presented. The spectral function solution obtained from its associated characteristic curves and initial condition (Method of Characteristics) reproduces the main features of a modeled physical system. In addition, this modeling allows us to obtain the scaling parameters, which are frequently employed in parameterizations for turbulent dispersion.

Beschreibung: Inversion models for retrieving the total and tropospheric nitrogen dioxide ( NO 2 ) columns from spaceborne remote sensing data are presented. For total column retrieval, we propose the so-called differential radiance models with internal and external closure and solve the underlying nonlinear equations by using the method of Tikhonov regularization and the iteratively regularized Gauss–Newton method. For tropospheric column retrieval, we design a nonlinear and a linear model by using the results of the total column retrieval and the value of the stratospheric NO 2 column delivered by a stratosphere–troposphere separation method. We also analyze the fundamentals of the commonly used differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) model and outline its relationship to the proposed inversion models. By a numerical analysis, we analyze the accuracy of the inversion models to retrieve total and tropospheric NO 2 columns.

Beschreibung: The performance of 20 models from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) was evaluated concerning surface radiation over the tropical oceans (30° S–30° N) from 1979 to 2000. The model ensemble mean of the net surface shortwave radiation (QSW) was underestimated compared to the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data by 4 W m−2. On the other hand, net longwave radiation (QLW) was overestimated by 4 W m−2, leading to an underestimation of the net surface radiation (Qrad) by 8 W m−2. The most prominent bias in the Qrad appears to be over regions of low-level clouds in the off-equatorial eastern Pacific, eastern Atlantic, and the south-eastern Indian Ocean. The root means squared error of QLW was larger than that of QSW in 17 out of 20 AMIP models. Overestimation of the total cloud cover and atmospheric humidity contributed to the underestimation of Qrad. In general, models with higher horizontal resolutions performed slightly better than those with coarser horizontal resolutions, although some systematic bias persists in all models and in all seasons, in particular, in regions of low-level clouds for QLW, and high-level clouds for QSW. The ensemble mean performed better than most models, but two high-resolution models (GFDL-HIRAM-C180 and GFDL-HIRAM-C360) outperform the model ensemble.

Beschreibung: Based on the ensemble precipitation forecast data in the summers of 2014–2018 from the Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), a comparative study of two multi-model ensemble methods, the Bayesian model average (BMA) and the logistic regression (LR), was conducted. Meanwhile, forecasts of heavy precipitation from the two models over the Wujiang River Basin in China for the summer of 2018 were compared to verify their performances. The training period sensitivity test results show that a training period of 2 years was the best for BMA probability forecast model. Compared with the BMA method, the LR model required more statistical samples and its optimal length of the training period was 5 years. According to the Brier score (BS), for precipitation events exceeding 10 mm with lead times of 1–7 days, the BMA outperformed the LR and the raw ensemble prediction system forecasts (RAW) except for forecasts with a lead time of 1 day. Furthermore, for heavy rainfall events exceeding 25 and 50 mm, the RAW and the BMA performed much the same in terms of prediction. The reliability diagram of the two multi-model ensembles (i.e., BMA and LR) was more reliable than the RAW for heavy and moderate rainfall forecasts, and the BMA model had the best performance. The BMA probabilistic forecast can produce a highly concentrated probability density function (PDF) curve and can also provide deterministic forecasts through analyzing percentile forecast results. With regard to the heavy rainfall forecast in mountainous areas, it is recommended to refer to the forecast with a larger percentile between the 75th and 90th percentiles. Nevertheless, extreme events with low probability forecasts may occur and cannot be ignored.

Beschreibung: We examined the diurnal cycle of the rainfall in a coastal tropical mountainous region in central Veracruz State, Mexico (18°–21° N, 95.5°–98.5° W), featuring a striking topographic gradient running from sea level at the Gulf of Mexico coast to 5000 m above sea level (m.a.s.l.) in less than 100 km horizontal distance. During the summer, this unique location leads to regular the interaction between the easterly moisture inflow and the mountainous barrier. Over the complex terrain, forced ascent leads the occurrence of maximum rainfall during the afternoon (16–19 local time, LT ≈ 1½ hours ahead of solar time in summer), first along the slope and later over the coast. Along the coastal plain, the precipitation continues until the early morning consistent with there being convergence between land breezes and the trade winds. Observations obtained during a measurement campaign from 28 June to 3 July 2015, indicate that during the early evening downslope winds move against easterly flow, likely due to katabatic outflows previously observed over the region. These features are confirmed using spatial (0.88°) and temporal (30 min) resolution CMORPH rainfall estimates, since we observed evening episodes initiating along the slope during the afternoon (14–17 LT) moving later towards the coast.

Beschreibung: Using the ERA-Interim total column ozone data, the spatial distributions of the long-term mean of the global total ozone in summer are analyzed. The results demonstrate that there are three midlatitude ozone “valleys” on earth—they are centered over the Tibetan Plateau (TIP), the Rocky Mountains (ROM), and the Southwest Pacific (SWP), respectively. The interdecadal variations of the three ozone valleys are positively modulated by the solar radiation, and the TIP ozone’s correlation with the solar radiation gets maximized with a two-year lag. The interdecadal variation of the SWP ozone valley has a significantly negative relationship with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the South Pacific quadrupole (SPQ). Warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) associated with the SPQ strengthen the vertical ascending motion, which dilutes the high concentration ozone at high altitudes. The interdecadal variation of the ROM ozone valley is positively correlated with the PDO, leading by three years. The ROM ozone content is also modulated by SSTAs in the Indian Ocean basin (IOB) by the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT). The observed regional SSTAs can exert a significant impact on the regional and even global circulation, via which the ozone content in midlatitudes also varies.

Beschreibung: Ground- and space-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers can provide three-dimensional (3D) information about the occurrence of equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs). For this study, we selected March 2014 data (during solar maximum of cycle 24) for the analysis. The timing and the latitudinal dependence of the EPBs occurrence rate are derived by means of the rate of the total electron content (TEC) index (ROTI) data from GNSS receivers in China, whereas vertical profiles of the scintillation index S4 are provided by COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate). The GNSS receivers of the low Earth orbit satellites give information about the occurrence of amplitude scintillations in limb sounding geometry where the focus is on magnetic latitudes from 20° S to 20° N. The occurrence rates of the observed EPB-induced scintillations are generally smaller than those of the EPB-induced ROTI variations. The timing and the latitude dependence of the EPBs occurrence rate agree between the ground-based and spaceborne GNSS data. We find that EPBs occur at 19:00 LT and they are mainly situated above the F2 peak layer which descended from 450 km at 20:00 LT to 300 km at 24:00 LT in the equatorial ionosphere. At the same time, the spaceborne GNSS data also show, for the first time, a high occurrence rate of post-sunset scintillations at 100 km altitude, indicating the coexistence of equatorial sporadic E with EPBs.

Beschreibung: This paper investigates the temperature and precipitation extremes over the Arabian Peninsula using data from the regional climate model RegCM4 forced by three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and ERA–Interim reanalysis data. Indices of extremes are calculated using daily temperature and precipitation data at 27 meteorological stations located across Saudi Arabia in line with the suggested procedure from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) for the present climate (1986–2005) using 1981–2000 as the reference period. The results show that RegCM4 accurately captures the main features of temperature extremes found in surface observations. The results also show that RegCM4 with the CLM land–surface scheme performs better in the simulation of precipitation and minimum temperature, while the BATS scheme is better than CLM in simulating maximum temperature. Among the three CMIP5 models, the two best performing models are found to accurately reproduce the observations in calculating the extreme indices, while the other is not so successful. The reason for the good performance by these two models is that they successfully capture the circulation patterns and the humidity fields, which in turn influence the temperature and precipitation patterns that determine the extremes over the study region.

Beschreibung: An open source computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver has been incorporated into the WindNinja modeling framework. WindNinja is widely used by wildland fire managers, as well as researchers and practitioners in other fields, such as wind energy, wind erosion, and search and rescue. Here, we describe the CFD solver and evaluate its performance against the WindNinja conservation of mass (COM) solver, and previously published large-eddy simulations (LES), for three field campaigns with varying terrain complexity: Askervein Hill, Bolund Hill, and Big Southern Butte. We also compare the effects of two model settings in the CFD solver, namely the discretization scheme used for the advection term of the momentum equation and the turbulence model, and provide guidance on model sensitivity to these settings. Additionally, we investigate the computational mesh and difficulties regarding terrain representation. Two important findings from this work are: (1) CFD solver predictions are significantly better than COM solver predictions at windward and lee side observation locations, but no difference was found in predicted speed-up at ridgetop locations between the two solvers, and (2) the choice of discretization scheme for advection has a significantly larger effect on the simulated winds than the choice of turbulence model.

Beschreibung: A global climatology of absorbing carbonaceous aerosols (ACA) for the period 2005–2015 is obtained by using satellite MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)-Aqua and OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument)-Aura aerosol optical properties and by applying an algorithm. The algorithm determines the frequency of presence of ACA (black and brown carbon) over the globe at 1° × 1° pixel level and on a daily basis. The results of the algorithm indicate high frequencies of ACA (up to 19 days/month) over world regions with extended biomass burning, such as the tropical forests of southern and central Africa, South America and equatorial Asia, over savannas, cropland areas or boreal forests, as well as over urban and rural areas with intense anthropogenic activities, such as the eastern coast of China or the Indo-Gangetic plain. A clear seasonality of the frequency of occurrence of ACA is evident, with increased values during June–October over southern Africa, during July–November over South America, August–November over Indonesia, November–March over central Africa and November–April over southeastern Asia. The estimated seasonality of ACA is in line with the known annual patterns of worldwide biomass-burning emissions, while other features such as the export of carbonaceous aerosols from southern Africa to the southeastern Atlantic Ocean are also successfully reproduced by the algorithm. The results indicate a noticeable interannual variability and tendencies of ACA over specific world regions during 2005–2015, such as statistically significant increasing frequency of occurrence over southern Africa and eastern Asia.

Beschreibung: The traditional voltammetric method at the mercury electrode, and an acidification step developed for the determination of reduced sulfur species (RSS) in natural waters, was for the first time used for the quantification of RSS in the water-soluble fraction of fine marine aerosols collected at the Middle Adriatic location (Rogoznica Lake). The evidence of two types of non-volatile RSS that have different interaction with the Hg electrode was confirmed: mercapto-type which complexes Hg as RS–Hg and sulfide/S0-like compounds which deposits HgS. The analytical protocol that was used for RSS determination in aerosol samples is based on separate voltammetric studies of a methyl 3-mercaptopropionate (3-MPA) as a representative of mercapto-type compounds and sulfide as a representative of inorganic RSS. Our preliminary study indicates the presence of mainly RS–Hg compounds in spring samples, ranging from 2.60–15.40 ng m−3, while both, the mercapto-type (0.48–2.23 ng m−3) and sulfide and/or S0-like compounds (0.02–0.26 ng m−3) were detected in early autumn samples. More expressed and defined RS–Hg peaks recorded in the spring potentially indicate their association with biological activity in the area. Those samples were also characterized by a higher water-soluble organic carbon content and a more abundant surface-active fraction, pointing to enhanced solubility and stabilization of RSS in the aqueous atmospheric phase.

Beschreibung: Extreme events such as rainstorms and floods are likely to increase in frequency due to the influence of global warming, which is expected to put considerable pressure on water resources. This paper presents a regional frequency analysis of precipitation extremes and its spatio-temporal pattern characteristics based on well-known index-flood L-moments methods and the application of advanced statistical tests and spatial analysis techniques. The results indicate the following conclusions. First, during the period between 1969 and 2015, the annual precipitation extremes at Fengjie station show a decreasing trend, but the Wuhan station shows an increasing trend, and the other 24 stations have no significant trend at a 5% confidence level. Secondly, the Hanjiang River Basin can be categorized into three homogenous regions by hierarchical clustering analysis with the consideration of topography and mean precipitation in these areas. The GEV, GNO, GPA and P III distributions fit better for most of the basin and MARE values range from 3.19% to 6.41% demonstrating that the best-fit distributions for each homogenous region is adequate in predicting the quantiles estimates. Thirdly, quantile estimates are reliable enough when the return period is less than 100 years, however estimates for a higher return period (e.g., 1000 years) become unreliable. Further, the uncertainty of quantiles estimations is growing with the growing return periods and the estimates based on R95P series have a smaller uncertainty to describe the extreme precipitation in the Hanjiang river basin (HJRB). Furthermore, In the HJRB, most of the extreme precipitation events (more than 90%) occur during the rainy season between May and October, and more than 30% of these extreme events concentrate in July, which is mainly impacted by the sub-tropical monsoon climate. Finally, precipitation extremes are mainly concentrated in the areas of Du River, South River and Daba Mountain in region I and Tianmen, Wuhan and Zhongxiang stations in region III, located in the upstream of Danjiangkou Reservoir and Jianghan Plain respectively. There areas provide sufficient climate conditions (e.g., humidity and precipitation) responsible for the occurring floods and will increase the risk of natural hazards to these areas.

Beschreibung: In this study, we use the long-term satellite data to investigate seasonal and interannual variation of low-cloud fraction (LCF) and the associated controlling factors over the eastern and western North Pacific. On the seasonal time scale, the enhanced LCF over the eastern North Pacific in summer is actively coupled with strong estimated inversion strength (EIS) and 700-hPa relative humidity, and the LCF over the western North Pacific in winter is large and mainly caused by increased sensible heat flux and tropospheric low-level cold advection. On the interannual time scale, the increased LCF over the eastern North Pacific in summer is associated with increased EIS and decreased sea surface temperatures, in which the El Niño plays an important role; the enhanced LCF over the western North Pacific in spring and winter has a positive correlation with enhanced sensible heat flux (SHF) and tropospheric low-level cold advection, which can be partly explained by the subpolar frontal zone (SPFZ) intensity.

Beschreibung: For research in the atmospheric boundary layer and in the vicinity of wind turbines, the turbulent 3D wind vector can be measured from fixed-wing unmanned aerial systems (UAS) with a five-hole probe and an inertial navigation system. Since non-zero vertical wind and varying horizontal wind causes variations in the airspeed of the UAS, and since it is desirable to sample with a flexible cruising airspeed to match a broad range of operational requirements, the influence of airspeed variations on mean values and turbulence statistics is investigated. Three calibrations of the five-hole probe at three different airspeeds are applied to the data of three flight experiments. Mean values and statistical moments of second order, calculated from horizontal straight level flights are compared between flights in a stably stratified polar boundary layer and flights over complex terrain in high turbulence. Mean values are robust against airspeed variations, but the turbulent kinetic energy, variances and especially covariances, and the integral length scale are strongly influenced. Furthermore, a transect through the wake of a wind turbine and a tip vortex is analyzed, showing the instantaneous influence of the intense variations of the airspeed on the measurement of the turbulent 3D wind vector. For turbulence statistics, flux calculations, and quantitative analysis of turbine wake characteristics, an independent measurement of the true airspeed with a pitot tube and the interpolation of calibration polynomials at different Reynolds numbers of the probe’s tip onto the Reynolds number during the measurement, reducing the uncertainty significantly.

Beschreibung: The impact of extreme weather events on the navigation environment in the inland waterways of the Yangtze River is an interdisciplinary hotspot in subjects of maritime traffic safety and maritime meteorology, and it is also a difficult point for the implementation of decision-making and management by maritime and meteorological departments in China. The objective of this study is to review the variation trends and distribution patterns in the periods of adverse and extreme weather events that are expected to impact on inland waterways transport (IWT) on the Yangtze River. The frequency of severe weather events, together with the changes in their spatial extension and intensity, is analyzed based on the ERA-Interim datasets (1979–2017) and the GHCNDEX dataset (1979–2017), as well as the research progresses and important events (2004–2016) affecting the navigation environment. The impacts of extreme weather events on IWT accidents and phenomena of extreme weather (e.g., thunderstorms, lightning, hail, and tornadoes) that affect the navigation environment are also analyzed and discussed. The results show that: (1) the sections located in the plain climate zone is affected by extreme weather in every season, especially strong winds and heat waves; (2) the sections located in the hilly mountain climate zone is affected particularly by spring extreme phenomena, especially heat waves; (3) the sections located in the Sichuan Basin climate zone is dominated by the extreme weather phenomena in autumn, except cold waves; (4) the occurrence frequency of potential flood risk events is relatively high under rainstorm conditions and wind gusts almost affect the navigation environment of the Jiangsu and Shanghai sections in every year; (5) the heat wave indices (TXx, TR, and WSDI) tend to increase and the temperature of the coldest day of the year gradually increases; (6) the high occurrences of IWT accidents need to be emphasized by relevant departments, caused by extreme weather during the dry season; and (7) the trends and the degree of attention of extreme weather events affecting IWT are ranked as: heat wave 〉 heavy rainfall 〉 wind gust 〉 cold spell 〉 storm. Understanding the seasonal and annual frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events has reference significance for regional management of the Yangtze River.

Beschreibung: The influence of the heights of low-level jets (LLJs) on the rotor power and aerodynamic loads of a horizontal axis wind turbine were investigated using the fatigue, aerodynamics, structures, and turbulence code. The LLJ and shear inflow wind fields were generated using an existing wind speed spectral model. We found that the rotor power predicted by the average wind speed of the hub height is higher than the actual power in relatively weak and shallow LLJ inflow conditions, especially when the LLJ height is located inside the rotor-swept area. In terms of aerodynamic loads, when the LLJ height is located inside the rotor-swept area, the root mean square (RMS) rotor thrust coefficient and torque coefficient increase, while the RMS rotor unbalanced aerodynamic load coefficients, including lateral force, longitudinal force, tilt moment, and yaw moment, decreased. This means that the presence of both positive and negative wind shear in the rotor-swept area not only increases the rotor power but also reduces the unbalanced aerodynamic loads, which is beneficial to the operation of wind turbine. Power spectrum analysis shows no obvious difference in the power spectrum characteristics of the rotor torque and thrust in LLJ inflow conditions with different heights.

Beschreibung: A two-dimensional mathematical model of moist air convection in the sub-cloud and cloud layers is proposed. A theoretical analysis of the influence of near ground atmospheric parameters on the development of sub-cloud and cloud convection is provided, and the criteria of convection development are considered. As a rule, this relationship is parameterized in general circulation, regional or mesoscale models of the atmosphere. Therefore, achieving a more complete and correct understanding of this relationship can lead to an improvement in the accuracy of weather forecasts. The mathematical model describes the system of the equations of motion, heat conductivity and the continuity equations for a two-dimensional vertical plane. The approximate analytical solution of the system of equations is obtained. Expressions for the estimation of the convection height and height of maximum velocity are derived for vertical and horizontal components of updraft wind and for vertical distribution of temperature. From the expressions obtained, the criterion of sub-cloud convection development is derived. The expressions for the convection parameters at a condensation level have also been formulated, from which the criterion of cloud development through convection is derived. It is established that the development of cloud convection depends on absolute values of the dew point deficit in a near-surface layer and, in a greater degree, on vertical gradients of water vapor mass fraction. It is shown that at certain critical values of a vertical gradient of water vapor mass fraction “explosive convective growth” is observed. The application of the obtained results to artificial stimulation of convection by means of air heating in the near-ground atmosphere has shown that the success of such an application and the required air heating-up depend on: (i) the vertical temperature gradient; (ii) the vertical dew-point gradient; and (iii) the value of the dew point deficit in the near-ground layer. The analysis performed has shown the possibility of successful stimulation of artificial convection under specific favorable atmospheric conditions.

Beschreibung: Previous studies have indicated that a high-level wave train from the tropical Indo–Western Pacific to East Asia (IWP-EA, expressed as geopotential height at 200 hPa) is triggered by dipolar convective activity anomalies over the IWP during the boreal winter. The current study highlights the relative importance of sea surface temperature forcing versus atmospheric internal variability on the IWP-EA pattern, based on an Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) experiment with 30 integrations. It was found that the SST-forcing component can reproduce the observed IWP–EA pattern and the related rainfall dipole well, for both the spatial features and temporal evolutions. The internal variability of the rainfall dipole is strong in the southern and eastern Indian Ocean and region north of Australia, while the internal variability of height generally increases with latitude. The signal-to-noise ratios are just over 1 over the northernmost lobe of the IWP-EA (Japan and the region to its east), while ratios over the other centers reach values greater than 3. An inter-member EOF analysis of the rainfall dipole indicates that the variability associated with the first two modes can explain more than 70% of the total spread over most regions with large spread for both rainfall dipole and IWP-EA, including the region over Japan. Thus, some parts of internal variability of rainfall dipole and IWP-EA are connected.

Beschreibung: Vipava valley in Slovenia is a representative hot-spot for complex mixtures of different aerosol types of both anthropogenic and natural origin. Aerosol loading distributions and optical properties were investigated using a two-wavelength polarization Raman LiDAR, which provided extinction coefficient, backscatter coefficient, depolarization ratio, backscatter Ångström exponent and LiDAR ratio profiles. Two different representative meteorological situations were investigated to explore the possibility of identifying aerosol types present in the valley. In the first case, we investigated the effect of strong downslope (Bora) wind on aerosol structures and characteristics. In addition to observing Kelvin–Helmholtz instability above the valley, at the height of the adjacent mountain ridge, we found new evidence for Bora-induced processes which inject soil dust aerosols into the free troposphere up to twice the height of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). In the second case, we investigated aerosol properties and distributions in stable weather conditions. From the observed stratified vertical aerosol structure and specific optical properties of different layers we identified predominant aerosol types in these layers.

Beschreibung: (1) Background: Flying in instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) carries an elevated risk of fatal outcome for general aviation (GA) pilots. For the typical GA flight, aerodrome-specific forecasts (Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF), Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program (LAMP)) assist the airman in pre-determining whether a flight can be safely undertaken. While LAMP forecasts are more prevalent at GA-frequented aerodromes, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) recommends that this tool be used as supplementary to the TAF only. Herein, the predictive accuracy of LAMP for ceiling flight categories of visual flight rules (VFR) and instrument flight rules (IFR) was determined. (2) Methods: LAMP accuracy was evaluated for the period of July–December 2018 using aviation-specific probability of detection (PODA), false alarm ratio (FARA) and critical success scores (CSSA). Statistical differences were determined using Chi-Square tests. (3) Results: LAMP forecasts (n = 823) across 39 states were accrued. LAMP PODA for VFR (0.67) and IFR (0.78) exceeded (p 〈 0.031) the corresponding TAF scores (0.57 and 0.56). For VFR, the LAMP showed a non-significant (p = 0.243) higher FARA (0.25) than the TAF (0.19). For IFR forecasts, the LAMP FARA was lower (p 〈 0.001) (0.48 and 0.81, respectively). LAMP CSSA scores exceeded the TAF for VFR (p = 0.012) and IFR forecasts (p 〈 0.001). (4) Conclusion: These findings support the greater integration of LAMP into pre-flight weather briefings.