ALBERT

Description: Review Article: On the relation between the seismic activity and the Hurst exponent of the geomagnetic field at the time of the 2000 Izu swarm Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2189-2194, 2013 Author(s): F. Masci and J. N. Thomas Many papers document the observation of earthquake-related precursory signatures in geomagnetic field data. However, the significance of these findings is ambiguous because the authors did not adequately take into account that these signals could have been generated by other sources, and the seismogenic origin of these signals have not been validated by comparison with independent datasets. Thus, they are not reliable examples of magnetic disturbances induced by the seismic activity. Hayakawa et al. (2004) claim that at the time of the 2000 Izu swarm the Hurst exponent of the Ultra-Low-Frequency (ULF: 0.001–10 Hz) band of the geomagnetic field varied in accord with the energy released by the seismicity. The present paper demonstrates that the behaviour of the Hurst exponent was insufficiently investigated and also misinterpreted by the authors. We clearly show that during the Izu swarm the changes of the Hurst exponent were strongly related to the level of global geomagnetic activity and not to the increase of the local seismic activity.

Description: Forest fire danger rating in complex topography – results from a case study in the Bavarian Alps in autumn 2011 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2157-2167, 2013 Author(s): C. Schunk, C. Wastl, M. Leuchner, C. Schuster, and A. Menzel Forest fire danger rating based on sparse meteorological stations is known to be potentially misleading when assigned to larger areas of complex topography. This case study examines several fire danger indices based on data from two meteorological stations at different elevations during a major drought period. This drought was caused by a persistent high pressure system, inducing a pronounced temperature inversion and its associated thermal belt with much warmer, dryer conditions in intermediate elevations. Thus, a massive drying of fuels, leading to higher fire danger levels, and multiple fire occurrences at mid-slope positions were contrasted by moderate fire danger especially in the valleys. The ability of fire danger indices to resolve this situation was studied based on a comparison with the actual fire danger as determined from expert observations, fire occurrences and fuel moisture measurements. The results revealed that, during temperature inversion, differences in daily cycles of meteorological parameters influence fire danger and that these are not resolved by standard meteorological stations and fire danger indices (calculated on a once-a-day basis). Additional stations in higher locations or high-resolution meteorological models combined with fire danger indices accepting at least hourly input data may allow reasonable fire danger calculations under these circumstances.

Description: Preface "Landslide hazard and risk assessment at different scales" Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2169-2171, 2013 Author(s): P. Reichenbach, A. Günther, and T. Glade

Description: Calibration of the passive cavity aerosol spectrometer probe for airborne determination of the size distribution Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 6, 2349-2358, 2013 Author(s): Y. Cai, J. R. Snider, and P. Wechsler This work describes calibration methods for the particle sizing and particle concentration systems of the passive cavity aerosol spectrometer probe (PCASP). Laboratory calibrations conducted over six years, in support of the deployment of a PCASP on a cloud physics research aircraft, are analyzed. Instead of using the many calibration sizes recommended by the PCASP manufacturer, a relationship between particle diameter and scattered light intensity is established using three sizes of mobility-selected polystyrene latex particles, one for each amplifier gain stage. In addition, studies of two factors influencing the PCASP's determination of the particle size distribution – amplifier baseline and particle shape – are conducted. It is shown that the PCASP-derived size distribution is sensitive to adjustments of the sizing system's baseline voltage, and that for aggregates of spheres, a PCASP-derived particle size and a sphere-equivalent particle size agree within uncertainty dictated by the PCASP's sizing resolution. Robust determinations of aerosol concentration, and size distribution, also require calibration of the PCASP's aerosol flowrate sensor. Sensor calibrations, calibration drift, and the sensor's non-linear response are documented.

Description: Experimental quantification of contact freezing in an electrodynamic balance Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 6, 2373-2382, 2013 Author(s): N. Hoffmann, A. Kiselev, D. Rzesanke, D. Duft, and T. Leisner Heterogeneous nucleation of ice in a supercooled water droplet induced by external contact with a dry aerosol particle has long been known to be more effective than freezing induced by the same nucleus immersed in the droplet. However, the experimental quantification of contact freezing is challenging. Here we report an experimental method to determine the temperature-dependent ice nucleation probability of size-selected aerosol particles. The method is based on the suspension of supercooled charged water droplets in a laminar flow of air containing aerosol particles as contact freezing nuclei. The rate of droplet–particle collisions is calculated numerically with account for Coulomb attraction, drag force and induced dipole interaction between charged droplet and aerosol particles. The calculation is verified by direct counting of aerosol particles collected by a levitated droplet. By repeating the experiment on individual droplets for a sufficient number of times, we are able to reproduce the statistical freezing behavior of a large ensemble of supercooled droplets and measure the average rate of freezing events. The freezing rate is equal to the product of the droplet–particle collision rate and the probability of freezing on a single contact, the latter being a function of temperature, size and composition of the contact ice nuclei. Based on these observations, we show that for the types of particles investigated so far, contact freezing is the dominating freezing mechanism on the timescale of our experiment.

Description: Linking ICT and society in early warning and adaptation to hydrological extremes in mountains Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2253-2270, 2013 Author(s): C. de Jong The assessment of the societal impact of hydrological extremes is particularly important in mountain regions, since mountains can be considered both as the generators and victims of extreme events. ICT can provide a powerful tool for transmitting hydro-meteorological information to predict, prepare and adapt to such events. However, in remote regions, such as mountains, the poles, deserts and islands, preventive and adaptive measures are often restricted by data availability and lack and/or incoherence of data networks. This paper distinguishes between early warning of floods and droughts, emphasising the latter in particular in mountains and explores the possibilities of enhancing the role of society in data collection, the identification, activation and application of stakeholder knowledge and transferral of data from gauged to ungauged catchments.

Description: The environmental impact of the Puyehue–Cordon Caulle 2011 volcanic eruption on Buenos Aires Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2319-2330, 2013 Author(s): G. B. Raga, D. Baumgardner, A. G. Ulke, M. Torres Brizuela, and B. Kucienska On 4 June 2011, the volcanic complex Puyehue–Cordon Caulle located in the Chilean Andes erupted, producing a plume of gases and particles that eventually circled the Southern Hemisphere, disrupting air travel and depositing ash in large quantities. On eight occasions, the plume passed over the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina, leading local authorities to close the two international airports. The eruption occurred during an on-going field campaign when measurements of the properties of atmospheric aerosol particles were being made in Buenos Aires as part of a year-long study of the concentration and optical properties of aerosol at one site in the city. The suite of instruments deployed in Buenos Aires were not tailored to measurements of volcanic ash, but were designed to characterize urban conditions. Nevertheless, these measurements were analysed for periods when vertical profiles of aerosol backscatter, made with a ceilometer, clearly showed the presence of the volcano plume over the research site and resulted in airport closure. Aerosol optical thickness derived from AERONET, MODIS and a ceilometer at our research site, all show enhanced values clearly indicating that the three platforms identified the volcanic plume simultaneously. However, a quantitative comparison of the different estimates proves difficult, suggesting large spatial and temporal variability of the plume. Our results indicate that the number concentration of condensation nuclei (CN), the mass concentration of particle-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PPAH) and the light absorption coefficient exceeded the average background values by more than one standard deviation during the events of volcanic plume. The anomalous concentrations of CN suggest new particle formation, presumably from the conversion of SO 2 , while the anomalous concentrations of PPAH may come from the uptake of PAHs on the plume particles or from chemical reactions on the surface of plume particles. The anomalous absorption coefficients indicate that plume particles may contain certain compounds that can absorb radiation at 550 nm. Another possible explanation consistent with the observations is the scavenging of black carbon from urban sources as the plume descends through the boundary layer to the surface. In addition, the volcanic plume influenced the local meteorology resulting in a decrease of the temperature when compared to the average temperature during days with no plume present.

Description: Contribution of land use changes to future flood damage along the river Meuse in the Walloon region Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2301-2318, 2013 Author(s): A. Beckers, B. Dewals, S. Erpicum, S. Dujardin, S. Detrembleur, J. Teller, M. Pirotton, and P. Archambeau Managing flood risk in Europe is a critical issue because climate change is expected to increase flood hazard in many european countries. Beside climate change, land use evolution is also a key factor influencing future flood risk. The core contribution of this paper is a new methodology to model residential land use evolution. Based on two climate scenarios ("dry" and "wet"), the method is applied to study the evolution of flood damage by 2100 along the river Meuse. Nine urbanization scenarios were developed: three of them assume a "current trend" land use evolution, leading to a significant urban sprawl, while six others assume a dense urban development, characterized by a higher density and a higher diversity of urban functions in the urbanized areas. Using damage curves, the damage estimation was performed by combining inundation maps for the present and future 100 yr flood with present and future land use maps and specific prices. According to the dry scenario, the flood discharge is expected not to increase. In this case, land use changes increase flood damages by 1–40%, to €334–462 million in 2100. In the wet scenario, the relative increase in flood damage is 540–630%, corresponding to total damages of €2.1–2.4 billion. In this extreme scenario, the influence of climate on the overall damage is 3–8 times higher than the effect of land use change. However, for seven municipalities along the river Meuse, these two factors have a comparable influence. Consequently, in the "wet" scenario and at the level of the whole Meuse valley in the Walloon region, careful spatial planning would reduce the increase in flood damage by no more than 11–23%; but, at the level of several municipalities, more sustainable spatial planning would reduce future flood damage to a much greater degree.

Description: Validation and empirical correction of MODIS AOT and AE over ocean Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 6, 2455-2475, 2013 Author(s): N. A. J. Schutgens, M. Nakata, and T. Nakajima We present a validation study of Collection 5 MODIS level 2 Aqua and Terra AOT (aerosol optical thickness) and AE (Ångström exponent) over ocean by comparison to coastal and island AERONET (AErosol RObotic NETwork) sites for the years 2003–2009. We show that MODIS (MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) AOT exhibits significant biases due to wind speed and cloudiness of the observed scene, while MODIS AE, although overall unbiased, exhibits less spatial contrast on global scales than the AERONET observations. The same behaviour can be seen when MODIS AOT is compared against Maritime Aerosol Network (MAN) data, suggesting that the spatial coverage of our datasets does not preclude global conclusions. Thus, we develop empirical correction formulae for MODIS AOT and AE that significantly improve agreement of MODIS and AERONET observations. We show these correction formulae to be robust. Finally, we study random errors in the corrected MODIS AOT and AE and show that they mainly depend on AOT itself, although small contributions are present due to wind speed and cloud fraction in AOT random errors and due to AE and cloud fraction in AE random errors. Our analysis yields significantly higher random AOT errors than the official MODIS error estimate (0.03 + 0.05 τ), while random AE errors are smaller than might be expected. This new dataset of bias-corrected MODIS AOT and AE over ocean is intended for aerosol model validation and assimilation studies, but also has consequences as a stand-alone observational product. For instance, the corrected dataset suggests that much less fine mode aerosol is transported across the Pacific and Atlantic oceans.

Description: Estimating soil suction from electrical resistivity Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2369-2379, 2013 Author(s): E. Piegari and R. Di Maio Soil suction and resistivity strongly depend on the degree of soil saturation and, therefore, both are used for estimating water content variations. The main difference between them is that soil suction is measured using tensiometers, which give point information, while resistivity is obtained by tomography surveys, which provide distributions of resistivity values in large volumes, although with less accuracy. In this paper, we have related soil suction to electrical resistivity with the aim of obtaining information about soil suction changes in large volumes, and not only for small areas around soil suction probes. We derived analytical relationships between soil matric suction and electrical resistivity by combining the empirical laws of van Genuchten and Archie. The obtained relationships were used to evaluate maps of soil suction values in different ashy layers originating in the explosive activity of the Mt Somma-Vesuvius volcano (southern Italy). Our findings provided a further example of the high potential of geophysical methods in contributing to more effective monitoring of soil stress conditions; this is of primary importance in areas where rainfall-induced landslides occur periodically.

Description: Sulfur dioxide emissions from Papandayan and Bromo, two Indonesian volcanoes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2399-2407, 2013 Author(s): P. Bani, Surono, M. Hendrasto, H. Gunawan, and S. Primulyana Indonesia hosts 79 active volcanoes, representing 14% of all active volcanoes worldwide. However, little is known about their SO 2 contribution into the atmosphere, due to isolation and access difficulties. Existing SO 2 emission budgets for the Indonesian archipelago are based on extrapolations and inferences as there is a considerable lack of field assessments of degassing. Here, we present the first SO 2 flux measurements using differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) for Papandayan and Bromo, two of the most active volcanoes in Indonesia. Results indicate mean SO 2 emission rates of 1.4 t d −1 from the fumarolic activity of Papandayan and more than 22–32 t d −1 of SO 2 released by Bromo during a declining eruptive phase. These DOAS results are very encouraging and pave the way for a better evaluation of Indonesian volcanic emissions.

Description: Interviewing insights regarding the fatalities inflicted by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2173-2187, 2013 Author(s): M. Ando, M. Ishida, Y. Hayashi, C. Mizuki, Y. Nishikawa, and Y. Tu One hundred fifty survivors of the 11 March 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (Tohoku-oki earthquake) ( M w = 9.0) were interviewed to study the causes of deaths from the associated tsunami in coastal areas of Tohoku. The first official tsunami warning underestimated the height of the tsunami and 40% of the interviewees did not obtain this warning due to immediate blackouts and a lack of communication after the earthquake. Many chose to remain in dangerous locations based on the underestimated warning and their experiences with previous smaller tsunamis and/or due to misunderstanding the mitigating effects of nearby breakwaters in blocking incoming tsunamis. Some delayed their evacuation to perform family safety checks, and in many situations, the people affected misunderstood the risks involved in tsunamis. In this area, three large tsunamis have struck in the 115 yr preceding the 2011 tsunami. These tsunamis remained in the collective memory of communities, and numerous measures against future tsunami damage, such as breakwaters and tsunami evacuation drills, had been implemented. Despite these preparedness efforts, approximately 18 500 deaths and cases of missing persons occurred. The death rate with the age of 65 and above was particularly high, four times higher than that with other age groups. These interviews indicate that deaths resulted from a variety of reasons, but if residents had taken immediate action after the major ground motion stopped, most residents might have been saved. Education about the science behind earthquakes and tsunamis could help save more lives in the future.

Description: A neural network algorithm for cloud fraction estimation using NASA-Aura OMI VIS radiance measurements Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 6, 2301-2309, 2013 Author(s): G. Saponaro, P. Kolmonen, J. Karhunen, J. Tamminen, and G. de Leeuw The discrimination of cloudy from cloud-free pixels is required in almost any estimate of a parameter retrieved from satellite data in the ultraviolet (UV), visible (VIS) or infrared (IR) parts of the electromagnetic spectrum. In this paper we report on the development of a neural network (NN) algorithm to estimate cloud fractions using radiances measured at the top of the atmosphere with the NASA-Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). We present and discuss the results obtained from the application of two different types of neural networks, i.e., extreme learning machine (ELM) and back propagation (BP). The NNs were trained with an OMI data sets existing of six orbits, tested with three other orbits and validated with another two orbits. The results were evaluated by comparison with cloud fractions available from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) flying on Aqua in the same constellation as OMI, i.e., with minimal time difference between the OMI and MODIS observations. The results from the ELM and BP NNs are compared. They both deliver cloud fraction estimates in a fast and automated way, and they both performs generally well in the validation. However, over highly reflective surfaces, such as desert, or in the presence of dust layers in the atmosphere, the cloud fractions are not well predicted by the neural network. Over ocean the two NNs work equally well, but over land ELM performs better.

Description: Validation of stratospheric and mesospheric ozone observed by SMILES from International Space Station Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 6, 2311-2338, 2013 Author(s): Y. Kasai, H. Sagawa, D. Kreyling, E. Dupuy, P. Baron, J. Mendrok, K. Suzuki, T. O. Sato, T. Nishibori, S. Mizobuchi, K. Kikuchi, T. Manabe, H. Ozeki, T. Sugita, M. Fujiwara, Y. Irimajiri, K. A. Walker, P. F. Bernath, C. Boone, G. Stiller, T. von Clarmann, J. Orphal, J. Urban, D. Murtagh, E. J. Llewellyn, D. Degenstein, A. E. Bourassa, N. D. Lloyd, L. Froidevaux, M. Birk, G. Wagner, F. Schreier, J. Xu, P. Vogt, T. Trautmann, and M. Yasui We observed ozone (O 3 ) in the vertical region between 250 and 0.0005 hPa (~ 12–96 km) using the Superconducting Submillimeter-Wave Limb-Emission Sounder (SMILES) on the Japanese Experiment Module (JEM) of the International Space Station (ISS) between 12 October 2009 and 21 April 2010. The new 4 K superconducting heterodyne receiver technology of SMILES allowed us to obtain a one order of magnitude better signal-to-noise ratio for the O 3 line observation compared to past spaceborne microwave instruments. The non-sun-synchronous orbit of the ISS allowed us to observe O 3 at various local times. We assessed the quality of the vertical profiles of O 3 in the 100–0.001 hPa (~ 16–90 km) region for the SMILES NICT Level 2 product version 2.1.5. The evaluation is based on four components: error analysis; internal comparisons of observations targeting three different instrumental setups for the same O 3 625.371 GHz transition; internal comparisons of two different retrieval algorithms; and external comparisons for various local times with ozonesonde, satellite and balloon observations (ENVISAT/MIPAS, SCISAT/ACE-FTS, Odin/OSIRIS, Odin/SMR, Aura/MLS, TELIS). SMILES O 3 data have an estimated absolute accuracy of better than 0.3 ppmv (3%) with a vertical resolution of 3–4 km over the 60 to 8 hPa range. The random error for a single measurement is better than the estimated systematic error, being less than 1, 2, and 7%, in the 40–1, 80–0.1, and 100–0.004 hPa pressure regions, respectively. SMILES O 3 abundance was 10–20% lower than all other satellite measurements at 8–0.1 hPa due to an error arising from uncertainties of the tangent point information and the gain calibration for the intensity of the spectrum. SMILES O 3 from observation frequency Band-B had better accuracy than that from Band-A. A two month period is required to accumulate measurements covering 24 h in local time of O 3 profile. However such a dataset can also contain variation due to dynamical, seasonal, and latitudinal effects.

Description: The Atmospheric radiation measurement (ARM) program network of microwave radiometers: instrumentation, data, and retrievals Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 6, 2359-2372, 2013 Author(s): M. P. Cadeddu, J. C. Liljegren, and D. D. Turner The Climate Research Facility of the US Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program operates a network of ground-based microwave radiometers. Data and retrievals from these instruments have been available to the scientific community for almost 20 yr. In the past five years the network has expanded to include a total of 22 microwave radiometers deployed in various locations around the world. The new instruments cover a frequency range between 22 and 197 GHz and are consistently and automatically calibrated. The latest addition to the network is a new generation of three-channel radiometers, currently in the early stage of deployment at all ARM sites. The network has been specifically designed to achieve increased accuracy in the retrieval of precipitable water vapor (PWV) and cloud liquid water path (LWP) with the long-term goal of providing the scientific community with reliable, calibrated radiometric data and retrievals of important geophysical quantities with well-characterized uncertainties. The radiometers provide high-quality, continuous datasets that can be utilized in a wealth of applications and scientific studies. This paper presents an overview of the microwave instrumentation, calibration procedures, data, and retrievals that are available for download from the ARM data archive.

Description: Airborne sun photometer PLASMA: concept, measurements, comparison of aerosol extinction vertical profile with lidar Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 6, 2383-2389, 2013 Author(s): Y. Karol, D. Tanré, P. Goloub, C. Vervaerde, J. Y. Balois, L. Blarel, T. Podvin, A. Mortier, and A. Chaikovsky A 15-channel airborne sun-tracking photometer has been developed. The instrument provides aerosol optical depths over a wide spectral range (0.34–2.25 μm) with an accuracy (ΔAOD) of approximately 0.01. Taking measurements at different altitudes allow us to derive the aerosol extinction vertical profile. Thanks to the wide spectral range of the instrument, information on the aerosol size distribution along the vertical is also available.

Description: McClear: a new model estimating downwelling solar radiation at ground level in clear-sky conditions Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 6, 2403-2418, 2013 Author(s): M. Lefèvre, A. Oumbe, P. Blanc, B. Espinar, B. Gschwind, Z. Qu, L. Wald, M. Schroedter-Homscheidt, C. Hoyer-Klick, A. Arola, A. Benedetti, J. W. Kaiser, and J.-J. Morcrette A new fast clear-sky model called McClear was developed to estimate the downwelling shortwave direct and global irradiances received at ground level under clear skies. It is a fully physical model replacing empirical relations or simpler models used before. It exploits the recent results on aerosol properties, and total column content in water vapour and ozone produced by the MACC project (Monitoring Atmosphere Composition and Climate). It accurately reproduces the irradiance computed by the libRadtran reference radiative transfer model with a computational speed approximately 10 5 times greater by adopting the abaci, or look-up table, approach combined with interpolation functions. It is therefore suited for geostationary satellite retrievals or numerical weather prediction schemes with many pixels or grid points, respectively. McClear irradiances were compared to 1 min measurements made in clear-sky conditions at several stations within the Baseline Surface Radiation Network in various climates. The bias for global irradiance comprises between −6 and 25 W m −2 . The RMSE ranges from 20 W m −2 (3% of the mean observed irradiance) to 36 W m −2 (5%) and the correlation coefficient ranges between 0.95 and 0.99. The bias for the direct irradiance comprises between −48 and +33 W m −2 . The root mean square error (RMSE) ranges from 33 W m −2 (5%) to 64 W m −2 (10%). The correlation coefficient ranges between 0.84 and 0.98. This work demonstrates the quality of the McClear model combined with MACC products, and indirectly the quality of the aerosol properties modelled by the MACC reanalysis.

Description: Review Article: Potential geomorphic consequences of a future great ( M w = 8.0+) Alpine Fault earthquake, South Island, New Zealand Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2279-2299, 2013 Author(s): T. R. Robinson and T. R. H. Davies The Alpine Fault in New Zealand's South Island has not sustained a large magnitude earthquake since ca. AD 1717. The time since this rupture is close to the average inferred recurrence interval of the fault (~300 yr). The Alpine Fault is therefore expected to generate a large magnitude earthquake in the near future. Previous ruptures of this fault are inferred to have generated M w = 8.0 or greater earthquakes and to have resulted in, amongst other geomorphic hazards, large-scale landslides and landslide dams throughout the Southern Alps. There is currently 85% probability that the Alpine Fault will cause a M w = 8.0+ earthquake within the next 100 yr. While the seismic hazard is fairly well understood, that of the consequential geomorphic activity is less well studied, and these consequences are explored herein. They are expected to include landsliding, landslide damming, dam-break flooding, debris flows, river aggradation, liquefaction, and landslide-generated lake/fiord tsunami. Using evidence from previous events within New Zealand as well as analogous international examples, we develop first-order estimates of the likely magnitude and possible locations of the geomorphic effects associated with earthquakes. Landsliding is expected to affect an area 〉 30 000 km 2 and involve 〉 1billion m 3 of material. Some tens of landslide dams are expected to occur in narrow, steep-sided gorges in the affected region. Debris flows will be generated in the first long-duration rainfall after the earthquake and will continue to occur for several years as rainfall (re)mobilises landslide material. In total more than 1000 debris flows are likely to be generated at some time after the earthquake. Aggradation of up to 3 m will cover an area 〉 125 km 2 and is likely to occur on many West Coast alluvial fans and floodplains. The impact of these effects will be felt across the entire South Island and is likely to continue for several decades.

Description: Ten years of MIPAS measurements with ESA Level 2 processor V6 – Part 1: Retrieval algorithm and diagnostics of the products Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 6, 2419-2439, 2013 Author(s): P. Raspollini, B. Carli, M. Carlotti, S. Ceccherini, A. Dehn, B. M. Dinelli, A. Dudhia, J.-M. Flaud, M. López-Puertas, F. Niro, J. J. Remedios, M. Ridolfi, H. Sembhi, L. Sgheri, and T. von Clarmann The MIPAS (Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding) instrument on the Envisat (Environmental satellite) satellite has provided vertical profiles of the atmospheric composition on a global scale for almost ten years. The MIPAS mission is divided in two phases: the full resolution phase, from 2002 to 2004, and the optimized resolution phase, from 2005 to 2012, which is characterized by a finer vertical and horizontal sampling attained through a reduction of the spectral resolution. While the description and characterization of the products of the ESA processor for the full resolution phase has been already described in previous papers, in this paper we focus on the performances of the latest version of the ESA (European Space Agency) processor, named ML2PP V6 (MIPAS Level 2 Prototype Processor), which has been used for reprocessing the entire mission. The ESA processor had to perform the operational near real time analysis of the observations and its products needed to be available for data assimilation. Therefore, it has been designed for fast, continuous and automated analysis of observations made in quite different atmospheric conditions and for a minimum use of external constraints in order to avoid biases in the products. The dense vertical sampling of the measurements adopted in the second phase of the MIPAS mission resulted in sampling intervals finer than the instantaneous field of view of the instrument. Together with the choice of a retrieval grid aligned with the vertical sampling of the measurements, this made ill-conditioned the retrieval problem of the MIPAS operational processor. This problem has been handled with minimal changes to the original retrieval approach but with significant improvements nonetheless. The Levenberg–Marquardt method, already present in the retrieval scheme for its capability to provide fast convergence for nonlinear problems, is now also exploited for the reduction of the ill-conditioning of the inversion. An expression specifically designed for the regularizing Levenberg–Marquardt method has been implemented for the computation of the covariance matrices and averaging kernels of the retrieved products. The regularization of the Levenberg–Marquardt method is controlled by the convergence criteria and is deliberately kept weak. The resulting oscillations of the retrieved profile are a posteriori damped by an innovative self-adapting Tikhonov regularization. The convergence criteria and the weakness of the self-adapting regularization ensure that minimum constraints are used and the best vertical resolution obtainable from the measurements is achieved in all atmospheric conditions. Random and systematic errors, as well as vertical and horizontal resolution are compared in the two phases of the mission for all products, namely: temperature, H 2O , O 3 , HNO 3 , CH 4 , N 2O , NO 2 , CFC-11, CFC-12, N 2 O 5 and ClONO 2 . The use in the two phases of the mission of different optimized sets of spectral intervals ensures that, despite the different spectral resolutions, comparable performances are obtained in the whole MIPAS mission in terms of random and systematic errors, while the vertical resolution and the horizontal resolution are significantly better in the case of the optimized resolution measurements.

Description: Ground-based stratospheric O 3 and HNO 3 measurements at Thule, Greenland: an intercomparison with Aura MLS observations Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 6, 2441-2453, 2013 Author(s): I. Fiorucci, G. Muscari, L. Froidevaux, and M. L. Santee In response to the need for improving our understanding of the evolution and the interannual variability of the winter Arctic stratosphere, in January 2009 a Ground-Based Millimeter-wave Spectrometer (GBMS) was installed at the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) site in Thule (76.5° N, 68.8° W), Greenland. In this work, stratospheric GBMS O 3 and HNO 3 vertical profiles obtained from Thule during the winters 2010 (HNO 3 only), 2011 and 2012 are characterized and intercompared with co-located measurements of the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) experiment. Using a recently developed algorithm based on Optimal Estimation, we find that the GBMS O 3 retrievals show good sensitivity (〉 80%) to atmospheric variations between ~ 17 and ~ 50 km, where their 1σ uncertainty is estimated to be the larger of ~ 11% or 0.2 ppmv. Similarly, HNO 3 profiles can be considered for scientific use between ~ 17 and ~ 45 km altitude, with a 1σ uncertainty that amounts to the larger of 15% or 0.2 ppbv. Comparisons with Aura MLS version 3.3 observations show that, on average, GBMS O 3 mixing ratios are biased negatively with respect to MLS throughout the stratosphere, with differences ranging between ~ 0.3 ppmv (8%) and 0.9 ppmv (18%) in the 17–50 km vertical range. GBMS HNO 3 values display instead a positive bias with respect to MLS up to 26 km, reaching a maximum of ~ 1 ppbv (10%) near the mixing ratio profile peak. O 3 and HNO 3 values from the two datasets prove to be well correlated at all altitudes, although their correlations worsen at the lower end of the altitude ranges considered. Column contents of GBMS and MLS O 3 (from 20 km upwards) and HNO 3 (from 17 km upwards) correlate very well and indicate that GBMS measurements can provide valuable estimates of column interannual and seasonal variations for these compounds.

Description: Integrating spatial, temporal, and size probabilities for the annual landslide hazard maps in the Shihmen watershed, Taiwan Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2353-2367, 2013 Author(s): C. Y. Wu and S. C. Chen Landslide spatial, temporal, and size probabilities were used to perform a landslide hazard assessment in this study. Eleven intrinsic geomorphological, and two extrinsic rainfall factors were evaluated as landslide susceptibility related factors as they related to the success rate curves, landslide ratio plots, frequency distributions of landslide and non-landslide groups, as well as probability–probability plots. Data on landslides caused by Typhoon Aere in the Shihmen watershed were selected to train the susceptibility model. The landslide area probability, based on the power law relationship between the landslide area and a noncumulative number, was analyzed using the Pearson type 5 probability density function. The exceedance probabilities of rainfall with various recurrence intervals, including 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 yr, were used to determine the temporal probabilities of the events. The study was conducted in the Shihmen watershed, which has an area of 760 km 2 and is one of the main water sources for northern Taiwan. The validation result of Typhoon Krosa demonstrated that this landslide hazard model could be used to predict the landslide probabilities. The results suggested that integration of spatial, area, and exceedance probabilities to estimate the annual probability of each slope unit is feasible. The advantage of this annual landslide probability model lies in its ability to estimate the annual landslide risk, instead of a scenario-based risk.

Description: Inter-calibration of polar imager solar channels using SEVIRI Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 6, 2495-2508, 2013 Author(s): J. F. Meirink, R. A. Roebeling, and P. Stammes Accurate calibration of satellite imagers is a prerequisite for using their measurements in climate applications. Here we present a method for the inter-calibration of geostationary and polar-orbiting imager solar channels based on regressions of collocated near-nadir reflectances. Specific attention is paid to correcting for differences in spectral response between instruments. The method is used to calibrate the solar channels of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) on the geostationary Meteosat satellite with corresponding channels of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the polar-orbiting Aqua satellite. The SEVIRI operational calibration is found to be stable during the years 2004 to 2009, but offset by −8, −6, and +3.5 % for channels 1 (0.6 μm), 2 (0.8 μm), and 3 (1.6 μm), respectively. These results are robust for a range of choices that can be made regarding data collocation and selection, as long as the viewing and illumination geometries of the two instruments are matched. Uncertainties in the inter-calibration method are estimated to be 1 % for channel 1 and 1.5 % for channels 2 and 3. A specific application of our method is the inter-calibration of polar imagers using SEVIRI as a transfer instrument. This offers an alternative to direct inter-calibration, which in general has to rely on high-latitude collocations. Using this method we have tied MODIS-Terra and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instruments on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellites 17 and 18 to MODIS-Aqua for the years 2007 to 2009. While reflectances of the two MODIS instruments differ less than 2 % for all channels considered, deviations of an existing AVHRR calibration from MODIS-Aqua reach −3.5 and +2.5 % for the 0.8 and 1.6 μm channels, respectively.

Description: Using ocean-glint scattered sunlight as a diagnostic tool for satellite remote sensing of greenhouse gases Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 6, 2509-2520, 2013 Author(s): A. Butz, S. Guerlet, O. P. Hasekamp, A. Kuze, and H. Suto Spectroscopic measurements of sunlight backscattered by the Earth's surface is a technique widely used for remote sensing of atmospheric constituent concentrations from space. Thereby, remote sensing of greenhouse gases poses particularly challenging accuracy requirements for instrumentation and retrieval algorithms which, in general, suffer from various error sources. Here, we investigate a method that helps disentangle sources of error for observations of sunlight backscattered from the glint spot on the ocean surface. The method exploits the backscattering characteristics of the ocean surface, which is bright for glint geometry but dark for off-glint angles. This property allows for identifying a set of clean scenes where light scattering due to particles in the atmosphere is negligible such that uncertain knowledge of the lightpath can be excluded as a source of error. We apply the method to more than 3 yr of ocean-glint measurements by the Thermal And Near infrared Sensor for carbon Observation (TANSO) Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) onboard the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT), which aims at measuring carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) concentrations. The proposed method is able to clearly monitor recent improvements in the instrument calibration of the oxygen (O 2 ) A-band channel and suggests some residual uncertainty in our knowledge about the instrument. We further assess the consistency of CO 2 retrievals from several absorption bands between 6400 cm −1 (1565 nm) and 4800 cm −1 (2100 nm) and find that the absorption bands commonly used for monitoring of CO 2 dry air mole fractions from GOSAT allow for consistency better than 1.5 ppm. Usage of other bands reveals significant inconsistency among retrieved CO 2 concentrations pointing at inconsistency of spectroscopic parameters.

Description: On the puzzling feature of the silence of precursory electromagnetic emissions Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2381-2397, 2013 Author(s): K. Eftaxias, S. M. Potirakis, and T. Chelidze It has been suggested that fracture-induced MHz–kHz electromagnetic emissions (EME), which emerge from a few days up to a few hours before the main seismic shock occurrence permit a real-time monitoring of the damage process during the last stages of earthquake preparation, as it happens at the laboratory scale. Despite fairly abundant evidence, electromagnetic (EM) precursors have not been adequately accepted as credible physical phenomena. These negative views are enhanced by the fact that certain "puzzling features" are repetitively observed in candidate fracture-induced pre-seismic EME. More precisely, EM silence in all frequency bands appears before the main seismic shock occurrence, as well as during the aftershock period. Actually, the view that "acceptance of "precursive" EM signals without convincing co-seismic signals should not be expected" seems to be reasonable. In this work we focus on this point. We examine whether the aforementioned features of EM silence are really puzzling ones or, instead, reflect well-documented characteristic features of the fracture process, in terms of universal structural patterns of the fracture process, recent laboratory experiments, numerical and theoretical studies of fracture dynamics, critical phenomena, percolation theory, and micromechanics of granular materials. Our analysis shows that these features should not be considered puzzling.

Description: Early warning of snow-caused disasters in pastoral areas on the Tibetan Plateau Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 1411-1425, 2013 Author(s): W. Wang, T. Liang, X. Huang, Q. Feng, H. Xie, X. Liu, M. Chen, and X. Wang This study develops a model for early warning of snow-caused livestock disasters on a county basis and proposes a method of qualitative risk assessment of snow disasters at 500 m resolution for pastoral areas on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Data used for the model development include remote sensing data, statistical data of weather, livestock, and social economy, and 45 typical snow disaster cases from 2000 to 2010. The principal component analysis (PCA) approach is used to choose 7 crucial factors that contribute over 85% of information for early warning snow disasters on the TP. They are mean annual probability of snow disaster, number of snow-covered days, livestock stocking rate, continual days of mean daily temperature below −10 °C, grassland burial index, rate of snow-covered grassland, and per livestock gross domestic product. The chosen 411 cases from 2008 to 2010 are used to validate the prediction results from the developed early warning model, with an overall accuracy of 85.64% in predicting snow disasters and no disasters. This suggests that the early warning approach developed in the study has operational potential for predicting snow disasters on the TP.

Description: How much does participatory flood management contribute to stakeholders' social capacity building? Empirical findings based on a triangulation of three evaluation approaches Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 1427-1444, 2013 Author(s): M. Buchecker, S. Menzel, and R. Home Recent literature suggests that dialogic forms of risk communication are more effective to build stakeholders' hazard-related social capacities. In spite of the high theoretical expectations, there is a lack of univocal empirical evidence on the relevance of these effects. This is mainly due to the methodological limitations of the existing evaluation approaches. In our paper we aim at eliciting the contribution of participatory river revitalisation projects on stakeholders' social capacity building by triangulating the findings of three evaluation studies that were based on different approaches: a field-experimental, a qualitative long-term ex-post and a cross-sectional household survey approach. The results revealed that social learning and avoiding the loss of trust were more relevant benefits of participatory flood management than acceptance building. The results suggest that stakeholder involvements should be more explicitly designed as tools for long-term social learning.

Description: Parameterizing radiative transfer to convert MAX-DOAS dSCDs into near-surface box-averaged mixing ratios Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 6, 1521-1532, 2013 Author(s): R. Sinreich, A. Merten, L. Molina, and R. Volkamer We present a novel parameterization method to convert multi-axis differential optical absorption spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS) differential slant column densities (dSCDs) into near-surface box-averaged volume mixing ratios. The approach is applicable inside the planetary boundary layer under conditions with significant aerosol load, and builds on the increased sensitivity of MAX-DOAS near the instrument altitude. It parameterizes radiative transfer model calculations and significantly reduces the computational effort, while retrieving ~ 1 degree of freedom. The biggest benefit of this method is that the retrieval of an aerosol profile, which usually is necessary for deriving a trace gas concentration from MAX-DOAS dSCDs, is not needed. The method is applied to NO 2 MAX-DOAS dSCDs recorded during the Mexico City Metropolitan Area 2006 (MCMA-2006) measurement campaign. The retrieved volume mixing ratios of two elevation angles (1° and 3°) are compared to volume mixing ratios measured by two long-path (LP)-DOAS instruments located at the same site. Measurements are found to agree well during times when vertical mixing is expected to be strong. However, inhomogeneities in the air mass above Mexico City can be detected by exploiting the different horizontal and vertical dimensions probed by the MAX-DOAS and LP-DOAS instruments. In particular, a vertical gradient in NO 2 close to the ground can be observed in the afternoon, and is attributed to reduced mixing coupled with near-surface emission inside street canyons. The existence of a vertical gradient in the lower 250 m during parts of the day shows the general challenge of sampling the boundary layer in a representative way, and emphasizes the need of vertically resolved measurements.

Description: Stakeholders' issues for action during the warning process and the interpretation of forecasts' uncertainties Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 1469-1479, 2013 Author(s): L. Créton-Cazanave and C. Lutoff This article considers the socio-geographical approach carried out as part of the MedUp program. It presents a study of the ways that the French "actors" manage forecast uncertainties during a flash flood warning process. In order to better understand the role of forecasts' uncertainties in decision making, we focused on the actions people took and how what they say explains their actions. The practices of actors involved in warnings for the Vidourle watershed (Gard, France), in particular, are analyzed using a practice-based approach. A set of categories of the "actors" was developed based on their descriptions of the problems they faced during the flash flood warning, independent of their socio-professional status and position in the warning chain. Five actor profiles result from this: Translators, Managers, Committed, Navigators and Vulnerable. For each profile, specific action contexts are defined, determining how each deals with uncertainty.

Description: Augmenting Austrian flood management practices through geospatial predictive analytics: a study in Carinthia Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 1445-1455, 2013 Author(s): S. M. Ward and G. Paulus The Danube River basin has long been the location of significant flooding problems across central Europe. The last decade has seen a sharp increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of these flood events, unveiling a dire need for enhanced flood management policy and tools in the region. Located in the southern portion of Austria, the state of Carinthia has experienced a significant volume of intense flood impacts over the last decade. Although the Austrian government has acknowledged these issues, their remedial actions have been primarily structural to date. Continued focus on controlling the natural environment through infrastructure while disregarding the need to consider alternative forms of assessing flood exposure will only act as a provisional solution to this inescapable risk. In an attempt to remedy this flaw, this paper highlights the application of geospatial predictive analytics and spatial recovery index as a proxy for community resilience, as well as the cultural challenges associated with the application of foreign models within an Austrian environment.

Description: Polarization data from SCIAMACHY limb backscatter observations compared to vector radiative transfer model simulations Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 6, 1503-1520, 2013 Author(s): P. Liebing, K. Bramstedt, S. Noël, V. Rozanov, H. Bovensmann, and J. P. Burrows SCIAMACHY is a passive imaging spectrometer onboard ENVISAT designed to obtain trace gas abundances from measured radiances and irradiances in the UV to SWIR range in nadir-, limb- and occultation-viewing modes. Its grating spectrometer introduces a substantial sensitivity to the polarization of the incoming light with nonnegligible effects on the radiometric calibration. To be able to correct for the polarization sensitivity, SCIAMACHY utilizes broadband Polarization Measurement Devices (PMDs). While for the nadir-viewing mode the measured atmospheric polarization has been validated against POLDER data (Tilstra and Stammes, 2007, 2010), a similar validation study regarding the limb-viewing mode has not yet been performed. This paper aims at an assessment of the quality of the SCIAMACHY limb polarization data. Since limb polarization measurements by other air/spaceborne instruments in the spectral range of SCIAMACHY are not available, a comparison with radiative transfer simulations by SCIATRAN V3.1 (Rozanov et al., 2013) using a wide range of atmospheric parameters is performed. SCIATRAN is a vector radiative transfer model (VRTM) capable of performing calculations of the multiply scattered radiance in a spherically symmetric atmosphere. The study shows that the limb polarization data exhibit a large time-dependent bias that decreases with wavelength. Possible reasons for this bias are a still unknown combination of insufficient accuracy or inconsistencies of the on-ground calibration data, scan mirror degradation and stress induced changes of the polarization response of components inside the optical bench of the instrument. It is shown that it should in principle be feasible to recalibrate the effective polarization sensitivity of the instrument using the in-flight data and VRTM simulations.

Description: Evaluating calibration strategies for isotope ratio infrared spectroscopy for atmospheric 13 CO 2 / 12 CO 2 measurement Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 6, 1491-1501, 2013 Author(s): X.-F. Wen, Y. Meng, X.-Y. Zhang, X.-M. Sun, and X. Lee Isotope ratio infrared spectroscopy (IRIS) provides an in situ technique for measuring δ 13 C in atmospheric CO 2 . A number of methods have been proposed for calibrating the IRIS measurements, but few studies have systematically evaluated their accuracy for atmospheric applications. In this study, we carried out laboratory and ambient measurements with two commercial IRIS analyzers and compared the accuracy of four calibration strategies. We found that calibration based on the 12 C and 13 C mixing ratios (Bowling et al., 2003) and on linear interpolation of the measured delta using the mixing ratio of the major isotopologue (Lee et al., 2005) yielded accuracy better than 0.06‰. Over a 7-day atmospheric measurement in Beijing, the two analyzers agreed to within −0.02 ± 0.18‰ after proper calibration. However, even after calibration the difference between the two analyzers showed a slight correlation with concentration, and this concentration dependence propagated through the Keeling analysis, resulting in a much larger difference of 2.44‰ for the Keeling intercept. The high sensitivity of the Keeling analysis to the concentration dependence underscores the challenge of IRIS for atmospheric research.

Description: Cavity ring-down spectroscopy sensor development for high-time-resolution measurements of gaseous elemental mercury in ambient air Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 6, 1477-1489, 2013 Author(s): A. Pierce, D. Obrist, H. Moosmüller, X. Faïn, and C. Moore We describe further development of a previous laboratory prototype pulsed cavity ring-down spectroscopy (CRDS) sensor into a field-deployable system for high-time-resolution, continuous, and automated measurement of gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) concentrations in ambient air. We employed an external, isotopically enriched Hg cell for automated locking and stabilization of the laser wavelength on the GEM peak absorption during measurements. Further, we describe implementation of differential absorption measurements via a piezoelectric tuning element for pulse-by-pulse tuning of the laser wavelength onto and off of the GEM absorption line. This allowed us to continuously correct (at 25 Hz) for system baseline extinction losses unrelated to GEM absorption. Extensive measurement and calibration data obtained with the system were based on spike addition in both GEM-free air and ambient air. Challenges and interferences that occurred during measurements (particularly in ambient air) are discussed including temperature and ozone (O 3 ) concentration fluctuations, and steps taken to reduce these. CRDS data were highly linear ( r 2 ≥ 0.98) with data from a commercial Tekran 2537 Hg analyzer across a wide range of GEM concentrations (0 to 127 ng m −3 ) in Hg-free and ambient air. Measurements during periods of stable background GEM concentrations provided a conservative instrument sensitivity estimate of 0.35 ng m −3 for the CRDS system when time averaged for 5 min. This sensitivity, along with concentration patterns observed in ambient air (with the CRDS system and verified with the Tekran analyzer), showed that the sensor was capable of characterizing GEM fluctuations in ambient air. The value of fast-response GEM measurements was shown by a series of GEM spike additions – highlighting that high-temporal-resolution measurement allowed for detailed characterization of fast concentration fluctuations not possible with traditional analyzers.

Description: CDRD and PNPR satellite passive microwave precipitation retrieval algorithms: EuroTRMM/EURAINSAT origins and H-SAF operations Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 887-912, 2013 Author(s): A. Mugnai, E. A. Smith, G. J. Tripoli, B. Bizzarri, D. Casella, S. Dietrich, F. Di Paola, G. Panegrossi, and P. Sanò Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF) is a EUMETSAT (European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites) program, designed to deliver satellite products of hydrological interest (precipitation, soil moisture and snow parameters) over the European and Mediterranean region to research and operations users worldwide. Six satellite precipitation algorithms and concomitant precipitation products are the responsibility of various agencies in Italy. Two of these algorithms have been designed for maximum accuracy by restricting their inputs to measurements from conical and cross-track scanning passive microwave (PMW) radiometers mounted on various low Earth orbiting satellites. They have been developed at the Italian National Research Council/Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate in Rome (CNR/ISAC-Rome), and are providing operational retrievals of surface rain rate and its phase properties. Each of these algorithms is physically based, however, the first of these, referred to as the Cloud Dynamics and Radiation Database (CDRD) algorithm, uses a Bayesian-based solution solver, while the second, referred to as the PMW Neural-net Precipitation Retrieval (PNPR) algorithm, uses a neural network-based solution solver. Herein we first provide an overview of the two initial EU research and applications programs that motivated their initial development, EuroTRMM and EURAINSAT (European Satellite Rainfall Analysis and Monitoring at the Geostationary Scale), and the current H-SAF program that provides the framework for their operational use and continued development. We stress the relevance of the CDRD and PNPR algorithms and their precipitation products in helping secure the goals of H-SAF's scientific and operations agenda, the former helpful as a secondary calibration reference to other algorithms in H-SAF's complete mix of algorithms. Descriptions of the algorithms' designs are provided including a few examples of their performance. This aspect of the development of the two algorithms is placed in the context of what we refer to as the TRMM era, which is the era denoting the active and ongoing period of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) that helped inspire their original development. In 2015, the ISAC-Rome precipitation algorithms will undergo a transformation beginning with the upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, particularly the GPM Core Satellite technologies. A few years afterward, the first pair of imaging and sounding Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) satellites will be launched, providing additional technological advances. Various of the opportunities presented by the GPM Core and MTG satellites for improving the current CDRD and PNPR precipitation retrieval algorithms, as well as extending their product capability, are discussed.

Description: Broadband measurements of aerosol extinction in the ultraviolet spectral region Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 6, 861-877, 2013 Author(s): R. A. Washenfelder, J. M. Flores, C. A. Brock, S. S. Brown, and Y. Rudich Aerosols influence the Earth's radiative budget by scattering and absorbing incoming solar radiation. The optical properties of aerosols vary as a function of wavelength, but few measurements have reported the wavelength dependence of aerosol extinction cross sections and complex refractive indices. We describe a new laboratory instrument to measure aerosol optical extinction as a function of wavelength, using cavity enhanced spectroscopy with a broadband light source. The instrument consists of two broadband channels which span the 360–390 and 385–420 nm spectral regions using two light emitting diodes (LED) and a grating spectrometer with charge-coupled device (CCD) detector. We determined aerosol extinction cross sections and directly observed Mie scattering resonances for aerosols that are purely scattering (polystyrene latex spheres and ammonium sulfate), slightly absorbing (Suwannee River fulvic acid), and strongly absorbing (nigrosin dye). We describe an approach for retrieving refractive indices as a function of wavelength from the measured extinction cross sections over the 360–420 nm wavelength region. The retrieved refractive indices for PSL and ammonium sulfate agree within uncertainty with the literature values for this spectral region. The refractive index determined for nigrosin is 1.78 (± 0.03) + 0.19 (± 0.08) i at 360 nm and 1.63 (± 0.03) + 0.21 (± 0.05) i at 420 nm. The refractive index determined for Suwannee River fulvic acid is 1.71 (± 0.02) + 0.07 (± 0.06) i at 360 nm and 1.66 (± 0.02) + 0.06 (± 0.04) i at 420 nm. These laboratory results support the potential for a field instrument capable of determining ambient aerosol optical extinction, average aerosol extinction cross section, and complex refractive index as a function of wavelength.

Description: Climatologies from satellite measurements: the impact of orbital sampling on the standard error of the mean Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 6, 937-948, 2013 Author(s): M. Toohey and T. von Clarmann Climatologies of atmospheric observations are often produced by binning measurements according to latitude and calculating zonal means. The uncertainty in these climatological means is characterised by the standard error of the mean (SEM). However, the usual estimator of the SEM, i.e., the sample standard deviation divided by the square root of the sample size, holds only for uncorrelated randomly sampled measurements. Measurements of the atmospheric state along a satellite orbit cannot always be considered as independent because (a) the time-space interval between two nearest observations is often smaller than the typical scale of variations in the atmospheric state, and (b) the regular time-space sampling pattern of a satellite instrument strongly deviates from random sampling. We have developed a numerical experiment where global chemical fields from a chemistry climate model are sampled according to real sampling patterns of satellite-borne instruments. As case studies, the model fields are sampled using sampling patterns of the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) and Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier-Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) satellite instruments. Through an iterative subsampling technique, and by incorporating information on the random errors of the MIPAS and ACE-FTS measurements, we produce empirical estimates of the standard error of monthly mean zonal mean model O 3 in 5° latitude bins. We find that generally the classic SEM estimator is a conservative estimate of the SEM, i.e., the empirical SEM is often less than or approximately equal to the classic estimate. Exceptions occur only when natural variability is larger than the random measurement error, and specifically in instances where the zonal sampling distribution shows non-uniformity with a similar zonal structure as variations in the sampled field, leading to maximum sensitivity to arbitrary phase shifts between the sample distribution and sampled field. The occurrence of such instances is thus very sensitive to slight changes in the sampling distribution, and to the variations in the measured field. This study highlights the need for caution in the interpretation of the oft-used classically computed SEM, and outlines a relatively simple methodology that can be used to assess one component of the uncertainty in monthly mean zonal mean climatologies produced from measurements from satellite-borne instruments.

Description: Influence of management of variables, sampling zones and land units on LR analysis for landslide spatial prevision Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2209-2221, 2013 Author(s): R. Greco and M. Sorriso-Valvo Several authors, according to different methodological approaches, have employed logistic Regression (LR), a multivariate statistical analysis adopted to assess the spatial probability of landslide, even though its fundamental principles have remained unaltered. This study aims at assessing the influence of some of these methodological approaches on the performance of LR, through a series of sensitivity analyses developed over a test area of about 300 km 2 in Calabria (southern Italy). In particular, four types of sampling (1 – the whole study area; 2 – transects running parallel to the general slope direction of the study area with a total surface of about 1/3 of the whole study area; 3 – buffers surrounding the phenomena with a 1/1 ratio between the stable and the unstable area; 4 – buffers surrounding the phenomena with a 1/2 ratio between the stable and the unstable area), two variable coding modes (1 – grouped variables; 2 – binary variables), and two types of elementary land (1 – cells units; 2 – slope units) units have been tested. The obtained results must be considered as statistically relevant in all cases (Aroc values 〉 70%), thus confirming the soundness of the LR analysis which maintains high predictive capacities notwithstanding the features of input data. As for the area under investigation, the best performing methodological choices are the following: (i) transects produced the best results (0 〈 P(y) ≤ 93.4%; Aroc = 79.5%); (ii) as for sampling modalities, binary variables (0 〈 P(y) ≤ 98.3%; Aroc = 80.7%) provide better performance than ordinated variables; (iii) as for the choice of elementary land units, slope units (0 〈 P(y) ≤ 100%; Aroc = 84.2%) have obtained better results than cells matrix.

Description: Risk evolution: how can changes in the built environment influence the potential loss of natural hazards? Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2195-2207, 2013 Author(s): B. Schwendtner, M. Papathoma-Köhle, and T. Glade Alpine areas often suffer significant loss and damage due to a range of natural processes such as landslides, debris flows, snow avalanches or floods. Sealing of the soil surface, settling in endangered areas and enhanced human intervention in the natural settings, as well as socio-economic changes, increase the risk and susceptibility of built environments to natural hazards and the costs of the consequences in a spatio-temporal context. The present study examines the loss estimation of a particular debris flow event for different points in time. The event occurred in August 1987, affected the municipality Martell in South Tyrol, Italy, and resulted in a total cost of € 25 million. The approach presented in this paper focuses on the changes of the land use and settlement expansion in the area since 1954 and attempts to assess the monetary impact of a similar event, which could have happened before (1954, 1985) or following the actual event (1992, 1999, 2006). The method applied is based on the use of a vulnerability curve which was developed for the specific area, based on the documentation of the damage of the 1987 event. Based on this curve, a loss estimation was carried out in order to visualise the risk evolution in a period of 52 yr (1954 to 2006). The results show a significant increase in the extent of the built environment (number, size and value of buildings) which consequently reflect an increase of the potential overall loss through the years. The method can be used in order to assess the potential loss for future scenarios based on different spatial patterns of the built environment.

Description: A chemical analyzer for charged ultrafine particles Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 6, 2339-2348, 2013 Author(s): S. G. Gonser and A. Held New particle formation is a frequent phenomenon in the atmosphere and of major significance for the Earth's climate and human health. To date the mechanisms leading to the nucleation of particles as well as to aerosol growth are not completely understood. A lack of appropriate measurement equipment for online analysis of the chemical composition of freshly nucleated particles is one major limitation. We have developed a Chemical Analyzer for Charged Ultrafine Particles (CAChUP) capable of analyzing particles with diameters below 30 nm. A bulk of size-separated particles is collected electrostatically on a metal filament, resistively desorbed and subsequently analyzed for its molecular composition in a time of flight mass spectrometer. We report on technical details as well as characterization experiments performed with the CAChUP. Our instrument was tested in the laboratory for its detection performance as well as for its collection and desorption capabilities. The manual application of defined masses of camphene (C 10 H 16 ) to the desorption filament resulted in a detection limit between 0.5 and 5 ng, and showed a linear response of the mass spectrometer. Flow tube experiments of 25 nm diameter secondary organic aerosol from ozonolysis of alpha-pinene also showed a linear relation between collection time and the mass spectrometer's signal intensity. The resulting mass spectra from the collection experiments are in good agreement with published work on particles generated by the ozonolysis of alpha-pinene. A sensitivity study shows that the current setup of CAChUP is ready for laboratory measurements and for the observation of new particle formation events in the field.

Description: Wind shear over the Nice Côte d'Azur airport: case studies Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2223-2238, 2013 Author(s): A. Boilley and J.-F. Mahfouf The Nice Côte d'Azur international airport is subject to horizontal low-level wind shears. Detecting and predicting these hazards is a major concern for aircraft security. A measurement campaign took place over the Nice airport in 2009 including 4 anemometers, 1 wind lidar and 1 wind profiler. Two wind shear events were observed during this measurement campaign. Numerical simulations were carried out with Meso-NH in a configuration compatible with near-real time applications to determine the ability of the numerical model to predict these events and to study the meteorological situations generating an horizontal wind shear. A comparison between numerical simulation and the observation dataset is conducted in this paper.

Description: Explosive development of winter storm Xynthia over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2239-2251, 2013 Author(s): M. L. R. Liberato, J. G. Pinto, R. M. Trigo, P. Ludwig, P. Ordóñez, D. Yuen, and I. F. Trigo In winter of 2009–2010 south-western Europe was hit by several destructive windstorms. The most important was Xynthia (26–28 February 2010), which caused 64 reported casualties and was classified as the 2nd most expensive natural hazard event for 2010 in terms of economic losses. In this work we assess the synoptic evolution, dynamical characteristics and the main impacts of storm Xynthia, whose genesis, development and path were very uncommon. Wind speed gusts observed at more than 500 stations across Europe are evaluated as well as the wind gust field obtained with a regional climate model simulation for the entire North Atlantic and European area. Storm Xynthia was first identified on 25 February around 30° N, 50° W over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. Its genesis occurred on a region characterized by warm and moist air under the influence of a strong upper level wave embedded in the westerlies. Xynthia followed an unusual SW–NE path towards Iberia, France and central Europe. The role of moist air masses on the explosive development of Xynthia is analysed by considering the evaporative sources. A lagrangian model is used to identify the moisture sources, sinks and moisture transport associated with the cyclone during its development phase. The main supply of moisture is located over an elongated region of the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean with anomalously high SST, confirming that the explosive development of storm Xynthia had a significant contribution from the subtropics.

Description: Seismic behavior of buried pipelines constructed by design criteria and construction specifications of both Korea and the US Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2271-2278, 2013 Author(s): S.-S. Jeon Earthquake loss estimation systems in the US, for example HAZUS (Hazard in US), have been established based on sufficient damage records for the purpose of prevention and efficient response to earthquake hazards; however, in Korea, insufficient data sets of earthquakes and damage records are currently available. In this study, the earthquake damages to pipelines in Korea using the pipeline repair rate (RR) recommended in HAZUS was reevaluated with the degree of confidence when RR is used without modification for the damage estimation of pipelines in Korea. The numerical analyses using a commercial finite element model, ABAQUS, were carried out to compare stresses and strains mobilized in both brittle and ductile pipelines constructed by the design criteria and construction specifications of both Korea and the US. These pipelines were embedded in dense sand overlying three different in situ soils (clay, sand, and gravel) subjected to earthquake excitations with peak ground accelerations (PGAs) of 0.2 to 1.2 g and 1994 Northridge and 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake loadings. The numerical results show that differences in the stress and strain rates are less than 10%. This implies that RR in HAZUS can be used for earthquake damage estimation of pipelines with a 90% confidence level in Korea.

Description: Comparison of AOD between CALIPSO and MODIS: significant differences over major dust and biomass burning regions Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 6, 2391-2401, 2013 Author(s): X. Ma, K. Bartlett, K. Harmon, and F. Yu Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) provide global vertical profiles of aerosol optical properties for the first time. In this study, we employed about 6 yr (2006–2011) of CALIPSO level 3 monthly mean gridded aerosol optical depth (AOD) products (daytime and nighttime) for cloud-free conditions, to compare with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra/Aqua level 3 monthly mean AOD dataset for the same time period. While the spatial distribution and seasonal variability of CALIPSO AOD is generally consistent with that of MODIS, CALIPSO is overall lower than MODIS as MODIS has higher frequency than CALIPSO for most bins of AOD. The correlation between MODIS and CALIPSO is better over ocean than over land. We focused on four regions that have large systematic differences: two over dust regions (the Sahara and Northwest China) and two over biomass burning regions (South Africa and South America). It is found that CALIPSO AOD is significantly lower than MODIS AOD over dust regions during the whole time period, with a maximum difference of 0.3 over the Saharan region and 0.25 over Northwest China. For biomass burning regions, CALIPSO AOD is significantly higher than MODIS AOD over South Africa, with a maximum difference of 0.25. Additionally CALIPSO AOD is slightly higher than MODIS AOD over South America for most of the time period, with a few exceptions in 2006, 2007, and 2010, when biomass burning is significantly stronger than during other years. We analyzed the impact of the satellite spatial and temporal sampling issue by using level 2 CALIPSO and MODIS products, and these systematic differences can still be found. The results of this study indicate that systematic differences of CALIPSO relative to MODIS are closely associated with aerosol types, which vary by location and season. Large differences over dust and biomass burning regions may suggest that assumptions made in satellite retrievals, such as the assumed lidar ratios for CALIPSO retrievals over dust and biomass burning regions or the surface reflectance information and/or the aerosol model utilized by the MODIS algorithm, are not appropriate.

Description: Seismic zones for Azores based on statistical criteria Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2337-2351, 2013 Author(s): M. C. M. Rodrigues and C. S. Oliveira The objective of this paper is to define seismic zones in the Azores based on statistical criteria. These seismic zones will likely be used in seismic simulations of occurrences in the Azores Archipelago. The data used in this work cover the time period from 1915 to 2011. The Azores region was divided into 1° × 1° area units, for which the seismicity and the maximum magnitudes of events were calculated. The seismicity, the largest earthquakes recorded and the geological characteristics of the region were used to group these area units because similar seismic zones must delineate areas with homogeneous seismic characteristics. We have identified seven seismic zones. To verify that the defined areas differ statistically, we considered the following dissimilarity measures (variables): time, size and seismic conditions – the number of seismic events with specific characteristics. Statistical tests, particularly goodness-of-fit tests, allowed us to conclude that, considering these three variables, the seven earthquake zones defined here are statistically distinct.

Description: Sub-ionospheric very low frequency perturbations associated with the 12 May 2008 M = 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2331-2336, 2013 Author(s): A. K. Maurya, R. Singh, B. Veenadhari, S. Kumar, and A. K. Singh The present study reports the VLF (very low frequency) sub-ionospheric perturbations observed on transmitter JJI (22.1 kHz), Japan, received at the Indian low-latitude station, Allahabad ( geographic lat. 25.41° N, long 81.93° E), due to Wenchuan earthquake (EQ) that occurred on 12 May 2008 with the magnitude 7.9 and at the depth of 19 km in Sichuan province of Southwest China, located at 31.0° N, 103.4° E. The nighttime amplitude fluctuation analysis gives a significant increase in fluctuation and dispersion two days before EQ, when it crosses 2σ criterion. However, there was no significant change observed in the amplitude trend. The diurnal amplitude variation shows a significant increase in the amplitude of JJI signal on 11 and 12 May 2008. The gravity wave channel and changes in the electric field associated with this EQ seem to be the potential factors of the observed nighttime amplitude fluctuation, dispersion, and significant increase in the signal strength.

Description: Microwave radiometer to retrieve temperature profiles from the surface to the stratopause Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 6, 2477-2494, 2013 Author(s): O. Stähli, A. Murk, N. Kämpfer, C. Mätzler, and P. Eriksson TEMPERA (TEMPERature RAdiometer) is a new ground-based radiometer which measures in a frequency range from 51–57 GHz radiation emitted by the atmosphere. With this instrument it is possible to measure temperature profiles from ground to about 50 km. This is the first ground-based instrument with the capability to retrieve temperature profiles simultaneously for the troposphere and stratosphere. The measurement is done with a filterbank in combination with a digital fast Fourier transform spectrometer. A hot load and a noise diode are used as stable calibration sources. The optics consist of an off-axis parabolic mirror to collect the sky radiation. Due to the Zeeman effect on the emission lines used, the maximum height for the temperature retrieval is about 50 km. The effect is apparent in the measured spectra. The performance of TEMPERA is validated by comparison with nearby radiosonde and satellite data from the Microwave Limb Sounder on the Aura satellite. In this paper we present the design and measurement method of the instrument followed by a description of the retrieval method, together with a validation of TEMPERA data over its first year, 2012.

Description: Retrieval of nitric oxide in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere from SCIAMACHY limb spectra Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 6, 2521-2531, 2013 Author(s): S. Bender, M. Sinnhuber, J. P. Burrows, M. Langowski, B. Funke, and M. López-Puertas We use the ultra-violet (UV) spectra in the range 230–300 nm from the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY) to retrieve the nitric oxide (NO) number densities from atmospheric emissions in the gamma-bands in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. Using 3-D ray tracing, a 2-D retrieval grid, and regularisation with respect to altitude and latitude, we retrieve a whole semi-orbit simultaneously for the altitude range from 60 to 160 km. We present details of the retrieval algorithm, first results, and initial comparisons to data from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). Our results agree on average well with MIPAS data and are in line with previously published measurements from other instruments. For the time of available measurements in 2008–2011, we achieve a vertical resolution of 5–10 km in the altitude range 70–140 km and a horizontal resolution of about 9° from 60° S–60° N. With this we have independent measurements of the NO densities in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere with approximately global coverage. This data can be further used to validate climate models or as input for them.

Description: Development and field testing of a rapid and ultra-stable atmospheric carbon dioxide spectrometer Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 7, 4445-4453, 2014 Author(s): B. Xiang, D. D. Nelson, J. B. McManus, M. S. Zahniser, R. A. Wehr, and S. C. Wofsy We present field test results for a new spectroscopic instrument to measure atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) with high precision (0.02 μmol mol −1 , or ppm at 1 Hz) and demonstrate high stability (within 0.1 ppm over more than 8 months), without the need for hourly, daily, or even monthly calibration against high-pressure gas cylinders. The technical novelty of this instrument (ABsolute Carbon dioxide, ABC) is the spectral null method using an internal quartz reference cell with known CO 2 column density. Compared to a previously described prototype, the field instrument has better stability and benefits from more precise thermal control of the optics and more accurate pressure measurements in the sample cell (at the mTorr level). The instrument has been deployed at a long-term ecological research site (the Harvard Forest, USA), where it has measured for 8 months without on-site calibration and with minimal maintenance, showing drift bounds of less than 0.1 ppm. Field measurements agree well with those of a commercially available cavity ring-down CO 2 instrument (Picarro G2301) run with a standard calibration protocol. This field test demonstrates that ABC is capable of performing high-accuracy, unattended, continuous field measurements with minimal use of reference gas cylinders.

Description: Investigating uptake of N 2 O in agricultural soils using a high-precision dynamic chamber method Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 7, 4455-4462, 2014 Author(s): N. J. Cowan, D. Famulari, P. E. Levy, M. Anderson, D. S. Reay, and U. M. Skiba Uptake (or negative flux) of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) in agricultural soils is a controversial issue which has proved difficult to investigate in the past due to constraints such as instrumental precision and methodological uncertainties. Using a recently developed high-precision quantum cascade laser gas analyser combined with a closed dynamic chamber, a well-defined detection limit of 4 μg N 2 O-N m −2 h −1 could be achieved for individual soil flux measurements. 1220 measurements of N 2 O flux were made from a variety of UK soils using this method, of which 115 indicated uptake by the soil (i.e. a negative flux in the micrometeorological sign convention). Only four of these apparently negative fluxes were greater than the detection limit of the method, which suggests that the vast majority of reported negative fluxes from such measurements are actually due to instrument noise. As such, we suggest that the bulk of negative N 2 O fluxes reported for agricultural fields are most likely due to limits in detection of a particular flux measurement methodology and not a result of microbiological activity consuming atmospheric N 2 O.

Description: Rapid, optical measurement of the atmospheric pressure on a fast research aircraft using open-path TDLAS Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 7, 3653-3666, 2014 Author(s): B. Buchholz, A. Afchine, and V. Ebert Because of the high travel speed, the complex flow dynamics around an aircraft, and the complex dependency of the fluid dynamics on numerous airborne parameters, it is quite difficult to obtain accurate pressure values at a specific instrument location of an aircraft's fuselage. Complex simulations using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models can in theory computationally "transfer" pressure values from one location to another. However, for long flight patterns, this process is inconvenient and cumbersome. Furthermore, these CFD transfer models require a local experimental validation, which is rarely available. In this paper, we describe an integrated approach for a spectroscopic, calibration-free, in-flight pressure determination in an open-path White cell on an aircraft fuselage using ambient, atmospheric water vapour as the "sensor species". The presented measurements are realised with the HAI (Hygrometer for Atmospheric Investigations) instrument, built for multiphase water detection via calibration-free TDLAS (tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy). The pressure determination is based on raw data used for H 2 O concentration measurement, but with a different post-flight evaluation method, and can therefore be conducted at deferred time intervals on any desired flight track. The spectroscopic pressure is compared in-flight with the static ambient pressure of the aircraft avionic system and a micro-mechanical pressure sensor, located next to the open-path cell, over a pressure range from 150 to 800 hPa, and a water vapour concentration range of more than 3 orders of magnitude. The correlation between the micro-mechanical pressure sensor measurements and the spectroscopic pressure measurements shows an average deviation from linearity of only 0.14% and a small offset of 9.5 hPa. For the spectroscopic pressure evaluation we derive measurement uncertainties under laboratory conditions of 3.2 and 5.1% during in-flight operation on the HALO airplane. Under certain flight conditions we quantified, for the first time, stalling-induced, dynamic pressure deviations of up to 30% (at 200 hPa) between the avionic sensor and the optical and mechanical pressure sensors integrated in HAI. Such severe local pressure deviations from the typically used avionic pressure are important to take into account for other airborne sensors employed on such fast flying platforms as the HALO aircraft.

Description: Mixing-layer height retrieval with ceilometer and Doppler lidar: from case studies to long-term assessment Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 7, 3685-3704, 2014 Author(s): J. H. Schween, A. Hirsikko, U. Löhnert, and S. Crewell Aerosol signatures observed by ceilometers are frequently used to derive mixing-layer height (MLH) which is an essential variable for air quality modelling. However, Doppler wind lidar measurements of vertical velocity can provide a more direct estimation of MLH via simple thresholding. A case study reveals difficulties in the aerosol-based MLH retrieval during transition times when the mixing layer builds up in the morning and when turbulence decays in the afternoon. The difficulties can be explained by the fact that the aerosol distribution is related to the history of the mixing process and aerosol characteristics are modified by humidification. The results of the case study are generalized by evaluating one year of joint measurements by a Vaisala CT25K and a HALO Photonics Streamline wind lidar. On average the aerosol-based retrieval gives higher MLH than the wind lidar with an overestimation of MLH by about 300 m (600 m) in the morning (late afternoon). Also, the daily aerosol-based maximum MLH is larger and occurs later during the day and the average morning growth rates are smaller than those derived from the vertical wind. In fair weather conditions classified by less than 4 octa cloud cover the mean diurnal cycle of cloud base height corresponds well to the mixing-layer height showing potential for a simplified MLH estimation.

Description: A catalog of high-impact windstorms in Switzerland since 1859 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2867-2882, 2014 Author(s): P. Stucki, S. Brönnimann, O. Martius, C. Welker, M. Imhof, N. von Wattenwyl, and N. Philipp In recent decades, extremely hazardous windstorms have caused enormous losses to buildings, infrastructure and forests in Switzerland. This has increased societal and scientific interest in the intensity and frequency of historical high-impact storms. However, high-resolution wind data and damage statistics mostly span recent decades only. For this study, we collected quantitative (e.g., volumes of windfall timber, losses relating to buildings) and descriptive (e.g., forestry or insurance reports) information on the impact of historical windstorms. To define windstorm severity, normalized and declustered quantitative data were processed by extreme value statistics. Descriptive information was classified using a conceptual guideline. Validation with independent damage information, as well as comparison with wind measurements and a reanalysis, indicates that the most hazardous winter storms are captured, while too few moderate windstorms are detected. Strong storms in the wind measurements and reanalysis are thus added to the catalog. The final catalog encompasses approximately 240 high-impact windstorms in Switzerland since 1859. It features three robust severity classes and contains eight extreme windstorms. Evidence of high winter storm activity in the early and late 20th century compared to the mid-20th century in both damage and wind data indicates a co-variability of hazard and related damage on decadal timescales.

Description: A GIS-based model to estimate flood consequences and the degree of accessibility and operability of strategic emergency response structures in urban areas Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2847-2865, 2014 Author(s): R. Albano, A. Sole, J. Adamowski, and L. Mancusi Efficient decision-making regarding flood risk reduction has become a priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries. Risk analysis methods and techniques are a useful tool for evaluating costs and benefits of possible interventions. Within this context, a methodology to estimate flood consequences was developed in this paper that is based on GIS, and integrated with a model that estimates the degree of accessibility and operability of strategic emergency response structures in an urban area. The majority of the currently available approaches do not properly analyse road network connections and dependencies within systems, and as such a loss of roads could cause significant damages and problems to emergency services in cases of flooding. The proposed model is unique in that it provides a maximum-impact estimation of flood consequences on the basis of the operability of the strategic emergency structures in an urban area, their accessibility, and connection within the urban system of a city (i.e. connection between aid centres and buildings at risk), in the emergency phase. The results of a case study in the Puglia region in southern Italy are described to illustrate the practical applications of this newly proposed approach. The main advantage of the proposed approach is that it allows for defining a hierarchy between different infrastructure in the urban area through the identification of particular components whose operation and efficiency are critical for emergency management. This information can be used by decision-makers to prioritize risk reduction interventions in flood emergencies in urban areas, given limited financial resources.

Description: Wind waves in the Black Sea: results of a hindcast study Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2883-2897, 2014 Author(s): V. S. Arkhipkin, F. N. Gippius, K. P. Koltermann, and G. V. Surkova In this study we describe the wind wave fields in the Black Sea. The general aims of the work were the estimation of statistical wave parameters and the assessment of interannual and seasonal wave parameter variability. The domain of this study was the entire Black Sea. Wave parameters were calculated by means of the SWAN wave model on a 5 × 5 km rectangular grid. Initial conditions (wind speed and direction) for the period between 1949 and 2010 were derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. According to our calculations the average significant wave height on the Black Sea does not exceed 0.7 m. Areas of most significant heavy sea are the southwestern and the northeastern parts of the sea as expressed in the spatial distribution of significant wave heights, wave lengths and periods. Besides, long-term annual variations of wave parameters were estimated. Thus, linear trends of the annual total duration of storms and of their quantity are nearly stable over the hindcast period. However, an intensification of storm activity is observed in the 1960s–1970s.

Description: Factors affecting flood insurance purchase in residential properties in Johor, Malaysia Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 3297-3310, 2014 Author(s): U. G. Aliagha, T. E. Jin, W. W. Choong, M. Nadzri Jaafar, and H. M. Ali High-impact floods have become a virtually annual experience in Malaysia, yet flood insurance has remained a grossly neglected part of comprehensive integrated flood risk management. Using discriminant analysis, this study seeks to identify the demand-side variables that best predict flood insurance purchase and risk aversion between two groups of residential homeowners in three districts of Johor State, Malaysia: those who purchased flood insurance and those who did not. Our results revealed an overall 34% purchase rate, with Kota Tinggi district having the highest (44%) and thus the highest degree of flood risk aversion. The Wilks' lambda F test for equality of group means, standardised discriminant function coefficients, structure correlation, and canonical correlation has clearly shown that there are strong significant attribute differences between the two groups of homeowners, based on the measures of objective flood risk exposure, subjective risk perception, and socio-economic cum demographic variables. However, the measures of subjective risk perception were found to be more predictive of flood insurance purchase and flood risk aversion.

Description: Kinematics of a mass movement constrained by sparse and inhomogeneous data Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1609-1618, 2011 Author(s): M. Karbon, E. Brückl, E. Hegedüs, and A. Preh On 12 February 2008, a landslide occurred along a 50 m high bank of the Danube river near Dunaszekcsö, Hungary. The initial state is only incompletely documented and the geodetic data acquired after the mass movement are sparse. A generalized 3-D topographic model of the landslide and its surrounding area was assembled and a representative longitudinal profile extracted. The reconstruction of the original surface is based on an orthophoto as well as on morphological considerations. Recorded observations include the locations of the outcrops of basal sliding surfaces, displacements at the main scarp and in the lower part of the slide, and a value to describe the total mass transport. Such sparse and inhomogeneous data were insufficient to derive a comprehensive documentation of the landslide or obtain adequate constraints for an accurate numerical analysis. Therefore, slider block models were fitted to the field data, which have only a small number of free parameters. A general view on the morphology of the mass movement justifies its classification as a rotational slide. A double slider block model fits all observational parameters within their error margin and supplies valuable information on the geometry of the slide. Estimates of the residual friction angles were derived and the question of reactivation was addressed. Finite Difference (FD) modelling and the application of conventional stability analysis support the geometry of the slider blocks and the computed average residual friction angles. Generally, the results are assumed to represent preliminary information, which could only be attained by the combination of the thinly distributed geodetic data with qualitative morphological observations and the implementation of a model. This type of information can be gained quickly and may be valuable for preliminary hazard mitigation measures or the planning of a comprehensive exploration and monitoring program.

Description: Looking for evidence of climate change impacts in the eastern Irish Sea Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1641-1656, 2011 Author(s): L. S. Esteves, J. J. Williams, and J. M. Brown Although storminess is often cited as a driver of long-term coastal erosion, a lack of suitable datasets has only allowed objective assessment of this claim in a handful of case studies. This reduces our ability to understand and predict how the coastline may respond to an increase in "storminess" as suggested by global and regional climate models. With focus on 16 km of the Sefton coastline bordering the eastern Irish Sea (UK), this paper analyses available measured datasets of water level, surge level, wave height, wind speed and barometric pressure with the objective of finding trends in metocean climate that are consistent with predictions. The paper then examines rates of change in shoreline position over the period 1894 to 2005 with the aim of establishing relationships with climatic variability using a range of measured and modelled metocean parameters (with time spans varying from two to eight decades). With the exception of the mean monthly wind speed, available metocean data do not indicate any statistically significant changes outside seasonal and decadal cycles. No clear relationship was found between changes in metocean conditions and rates of shoreline change along the Sefton coast. High interannual variability and the lack of long-term measurements make unambiguous correlations between climate change and shoreline evolution problematic. However, comparison between the North Atlantic Oscillation winter index (NAOw) and coastline changes suggest increased erosion at times of decreasing NAOw values and reduced erosion at times of increasing NAOw values. Erosion tends to be more pronounced when decreasing NAOw values lead to a strong negative NAO phase. At present, anthropogenic changes in the local sediment budget and the short-term impact of extreme events are still the largest threat likely to affect coastal flooding and erosion risk in the short- and medium-term. Nevertheless, the potential impacts of climate change in the long-term should not be ignored.

Description: Comparing historical-hydrogeomorphological reconstitution and hydrological-hydraulic modelling in the estimation of flood-prone areas – a case study in Central Portugal Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1669-1681, 2011 Author(s): P. P. Santos, A. O. Tavares, and A. I. A. S. S. Andrade The Arunca River basin in Central Portugal has a historical record of hazardous events related to floods, causing widespread disturbance. This article describes the application of two approaches based on well-known methods for the estimation of flood-prone areas: (i) historical-hydrogeomorphological reconstitution, applied to the entire Arunca River basin, and (ii) hydrological-hydraulic modelling, applied to four sections selected from different (upper, middle and lower) sectors of the basin and including urban and rural areas along the Arunca River. The mapping of the flood-prone areas obtained by these two methods was compared in order to identify the main differences and similarities. Human interventions (river channel and floodplain morphological changes) were found to be the main factor explaining the differences and similarities between the results obtained by both methods. The application of hydrological-hydraulic modelling proved important in reinforcing the results of the historical-hydrogeomorphological method; it also helped in complementing the results produced by the latter method in urban areas and in areas with insufficient historical records. The application of the historical-hydrogeomorphological method, in turn, allowed for the size of the flood-prone areas to be determined where the primary data (e.g. geometry, roughness and flow) was not accurate enough for hydrological-hydraulic modelling. The methodological approach adopted demonstrates the strong complementary relationship between the different existing methods for estimating flood-prone areas, and may be reproduced for other drainage basins.

Description: Radio occultation bending angle anomalies during tropical cyclones Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 4, 1053-1060, 2011 Author(s): R. Biondi, T. Neubert, S. Syndergaard, and J. K. Nielsen The tropical deep convection affects the radiation balance of the atmosphere changing the water vapor mixing ratio and the temperature of the upper troposphere lower stratosphere. The aim of this work is to better understand these processes and to investigate if severe storms leave a significant signature in radio occultation profiles in the tropical tropopause layer. Using tropical cyclone best track database and data from different GPS radio occultation missions (COSMIC, GRACE, CHAMP, SACC and GPSMET), we selected 1194 profiles in a time window of 3 h and a space window of 300 km from the eye of the cyclone. We show that the bending angle anomaly of a GPS radio occultation signal is typically larger than the climatology in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere and that a double tropopause during deep convection can easily be detected using this technique. Comparisons with co-located radiosondes, climatology of tropopause altitudes and GOES analyses are also shown to support the hypothesis that the bending angle anomaly can be used as an indicator of convective towers. The results are discussed in connection to the GPS radio occultation receiver which will be part of the Atomic Clock Ensemble in Space (ACES) payload on the International Space Station.

Description: Assimilation of GPS radio occultation data at DWD Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 4, 1105-1113, 2011 Author(s): H. Anlauf, D. Pingel, and A. Rhodin We describe the status of the assimilation of bending angles from GPS radio occultations in the 3D-Var for DWD's operational global forecast model GME ("Global Model for Europe"). Experiments show that the assimilation of GPSRO data leads to a significant reduction of biases in the analyses of temperature, humidity and wind in the upper troposphere and the stratosphere, as well as a better r. m. s. fit in the comparison to radiosondes. The impact on forecasts is most prominent in the data sparse Southern Hemisphere, but is also quite notable in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics. The positive results found in the impact experiments lead to the implementation of the assimilation of GPS radio occultations from GRACE-A, FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC and GRAS/MetOp-A into the operational suite on 3 August 2010. We also show some initial results from assimilation experiments using radio occultation data from the German research satellite TerraSAR-X.

Description: The contribution of engineering surveys by means of GPS to the determination of crustal movements in Istanbul Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1705-1713, 2011 Author(s): M. Özyaşar and M. T. Özlüdemir Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are space based positioning techniques and widely used in geodetic applications. Geodetic networking accomplished by engineering surveys constitutes one of these tasks. Geodetic networks are used as the base of all kinds of geodetic implementations, Co from the cadastral plans to the relevant surveying processes during the realization of engineering applications. Geodetic networks consist of control points positioned in a defined reference frame. In fact, such positional information could be useful for other studies as well. One of such fields is geodynamic studies that use the changes of positions of control stations within a network in a certain time period to understand the characteristics of tectonic movements. In Turkey, which is located in tectonically active zones and struck by major earthquakes quite frequently, the positional information obtained in engineering surveys could be very useful for earthquake related studies. For this purpose, a GPS (Global Positioning System) network of 650 stations distributed over Istanbul (Istanbul GPS Triangulation Network; abbreviated IGNA) covering the northern part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) was established in 1997 and measured in 1999. From 1998 to 2004, the IGNA network was extended to 1888 stations covering an area of about 6000 km 2 , the whole administration area of Istanbul. All 1888 stations within the IGNA network were remeasured in 2005. In these two campaigns there existed 452 common points, and between these two campaigns two major earthquakes took place, on 17 August and 12 November 1999 with a Richter scale magnitude of 7.4 and 7.2, respectively. Several studies conducted for estimating the horizontal and vertical displacements as a result of these earthquakes on NAFZ are discussed in this paper. In geodynamic projects carried out before the earthquakes in 1999, an annual average velocity of 2–2.5 cm for the stations along the NAFZ were estimated. Studies carried out using GPS observations in the same area after these earthquakes indicated that point displacements vary depending on their distance to the epicentres of the earthquakes. But the directions of point displacements are similar. The results obtained through the analysis of the IGNA network also show that there is a common trend in the directions of point displacements in the study area. In this paper, the past studies about the tectonics of Marmara region are summarised and the results of the displacement analysis on the IGNA network are discussed.

Description: Quantitative estimation of landslide risk from rapid debris slides on natural slopes in the Nilgiri hills, India Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1723-1743, 2011 Author(s): P. Jaiswal, C. J. van Westen, and V. Jetten A quantitative procedure for estimating landslide risk to life and property is presented and applied in a mountainous area in the Nilgiri hills of southern India. Risk is estimated for elements at risk located in both initiation zones and run-out paths of potential landslides. Loss of life is expressed as individual risk and as societal risk using F-N curves, whereas the direct loss of properties is expressed in monetary terms. An inventory of 1084 landslides was prepared from historical records available for the period between 1987 and 2009. A substantially complete inventory was obtained for landslides on cut slopes (1042 landslides), while for natural slopes information on only 42 landslides was available. Most landslides were shallow translational debris slides and debris flowslides triggered by rainfall. On natural slopes most landslides occurred as first-time failures. For landslide hazard assessment the following information was derived: (1) landslides on natural slopes grouped into three landslide magnitude classes, based on landslide volumes, (2) the number of future landslides on natural slopes, obtained by establishing a relationship between the number of landslides on natural slopes and cut slopes for different return periods using a Gumbel distribution model, (3) landslide susceptible zones, obtained using a logistic regression model, and (4) distribution of landslides in the susceptible zones, obtained from the model fitting performance (success rate curve). The run-out distance of landslides was assessed empirically using landslide volumes, and the vulnerability of elements at risk was subjectively assessed based on limited historic incidents. Direct specific risk was estimated individually for tea/coffee and horticulture plantations, transport infrastructures, buildings, and people both in initiation and run-out areas. Risks were calculated by considering the minimum, average, and maximum landslide volumes in each magnitude class and the corresponding minimum, average, and maximum run-out distances and vulnerability values, thus obtaining a range of risk values per return period. The results indicate that the total annual minimum, average, and maximum losses are about US$ 44 000, US$ 136 000 and US$ 268 000, respectively. The maximum risk to population varies from 2.1 × 10 −1 for one or more lives lost to 6.0 × 10 −2 yr −1 for 100 or more lives lost. The obtained results will provide a basis for planning risk reduction strategies in the Nilgiri area.

Description: CIAO: the CNR-IMAA advanced observatory for atmospheric research Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 4, 1191-1208, 2011 Author(s): F. Madonna, A. Amodeo, A. Boselli, C. Cornacchia, V. Cuomo, G. D'Amico, A. Giunta, L. Mona, and G. Pappalardo Long-term observations of aerosol and clouds are of crucial importance to understand the weather climate system. At the Istituto di Metodologie per l'Analisi Ambientale of the Italian National Research Council (CNR-IMAA) an advanced atmospheric observatory, named CIAO, is operative. CIAO (CNR-IMAA Atmospheric Observatory) main scientific objective is the long term measurement for the climatology of aerosol and cloud properties. Its equipment addresses the state-of-the-art for the ground-based remote sensing of aerosol, water vapour and clouds including active and passive sensors, like lidars, ceilometers, radiometers, and a radar. This paper describes the CIAO infrastructure, its scientific activities as well as the observation strategy. The observation strategy is mainly organized in order to provide quality assured measurements for satellite validation and model evaluation and to fully exploit the synergy and integration of the active and passive sensors for the improvement of atmospheric profiling. Data quality is ensured both by the application of protocols and dedicated quality assurance programs mainly related to the projects and networks in which the infrastructure is involved. The paper also introduces examples of observations performed at CIAO and of the synergies and integration algorithms (using Raman lidar and microwave profiler data) developed and implemented at the observatory for the optimization and improvement of water vapour profiling. CIAO database represents an optimal basis to study the synergy between different sensors and to investigate aerosol-clouds interactions, and can give a significant contribution to the validation programs of the incoming new generation satellite missions.

Description: Trends in climatic variables and future reference evapotranspiration in Duero Valley (Spain) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1795-1805, 2011 Author(s): R. Moratiel, R. L. Snyder, J. M. Durán, and A. M. Tarquis The impact of climate change and its relation with evapotranspiration was evaluated in the Duero River Basin (Spain). The study shows possible future situations 50 yr from now from the reference evapotranspiration (ET o ). The maximum temperature ( T max ), minimum temperature ( T min ), dew point ( T d ), wind speed ( U ) and net radiation ( R n ) trends during the 1980–2009 period were obtained and extrapolated with the FAO-56 Penman-Montheith equation to estimate ET o . Changes in stomatal resistance in response to increases in CO 2 were also considered. Four scenarios were done, taking the concentration of CO 2 and the period analyzed (annual or monthly) into consideration. The scenarios studied showed the changes in ET o as a consequence of the annual and monthly trends in the variables T max , T min , T d , U and R n with current and future CO 2 concentrations (372 ppm and 550 ppm). The future ET o showed increases between 118 mm (11 %) and 55 mm (5 %) with respect to the current situation of the river basin at 1042 mm. The months most affected by climate change are May, June, July, August and September, which also coincide with the maximum water needs of the basin's crops.

Description: Airborne DOAS limb measurements of tropospheric trace gas profiles: case studies on the profile retrieval of O 4 and BrO Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 4, 1241-1260, 2011 Author(s): C. Prados-Roman, A. Butz, T. Deutschmann, M. Dorf, L. Kritten, A. Minikin, U. Platt, H. Schlager, H. Sihler, N. Theys, M. Van Roozendael, T. Wagner, and K. Pfeilsticker A novel limb scanning mini-DOAS spectrometer for the detection of UV/vis absorbing radicals (e.g., O 3 , BrO, IO, HONO) was deployed on the DLR-Falcon (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt) aircraft and tested during the ASTAR 2007 campaign (Arctic Study of Tropospheric Aerosol, Clouds and Radiation) that took place at Svalbard (78° N) in spring 2007. Our main objectives during this campaign were to test the instrument, and to perform spectral and profile retrievals of tropospheric trace gases, with particular interest on investigating the distribution of halogen compounds (e.g., BrO) during the so-called ozone depletion events (ODEs). In the present work, a new method for the retrieval of vertical profiles of tropospheric trace gases from tropospheric DOAS limb observations is presented. Major challenges arise from modeling the radiative transfer in an aerosol and cloud particle loaded atmosphere, and from overcoming the lack of a priori knowledge of the targeted trace gas vertical distribution (e.g., unknown tropospheric BrO vertical distribution). Here, those challenges are tackled by a mathematical inversion of tropospheric trace gas profiles using a regularization approach constrained by a retrieved vertical profile of the aerosols extinction coefficient E M . The validity and limitations of the algorithm are tested with in situ measured E M , and with an absorber of known vertical profile (O 4 ). The method is then used for retrieving vertical profiles of tropospheric BrO. Results indicate that, for aircraft ascent/descent observations, the limit for the BrO detection is roughly 1.5 pptv (pmol mol −1 ), and the BrO profiles inferred from the boundary layer up to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere have around 10 degrees of freedom. For the ASTAR 2007 deployments during ODEs, the retrieved BrO vertical profiles consistently indicate high BrO mixing ratios (∼15 pptv) within the boundary layer, low BrO mixing ratios (≤1.5 pptv) in the free troposphere, occasionally enhanced BrO mixing ratios (∼1.5 pptv) in the upper troposphere, and increasing BrO mixing ratios with altitude in the lowermost stratosphere. These findings agree reasonably well with satellite and balloon-borne soundings of total and partial BrO atmospheric column densities.

Description: Possible interrelation between the lead time of precursory seismic electric signals (SES) and geodynamics in Aegean Sea Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1599-1603, 2011 Author(s): E. Dologlou The seismicity of the last 15 years in the Aegean Sea revealed that earthquakes ( M w 〉 5) with epicentres falling within the Sporades basin and the confined area north of Samos island were preceded by electric seismic signals (SES) with a remarkably long lead time. A possible explanation of this behaviour by means of specific tectonics and geodynamics which characterise these two regions, such as a significant small crustal thickness and a high heat flow rate, has been attempted. New data seem to strengthen the above hypothesis.

Description: Processing of GRAS/METOP radio occultation data recorded in closed-loop and raw-sampling modes Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 4, 1021-1026, 2011 Author(s): M. E. Gorbunov, K. B. Lauritsen, H.-H. Benzon, G. B. Larsen, S. Syndergaard, and M. B. Sørensen Instrument GRAS (Global Navigation Satellite System Receiver for Atmospheric Sounding) on-board of the Metop-A satellite was activated on 27 October 2006. Currently, Metop-A is a fully operational satellite with GRAS providing from 650–700 occultations per day. We describe our processing of GRAS data based on the modification of our OCC software, which was modified to become capable of reading and processing GRAS data. We perform a statistical comparison of bending angles and refractivities derived from GRAS data with those derived from ECMWF analyses. We conclude that GRAS data have error characteristics close to those of COSMIC data. In the height range 10–30 km, the systematic refractivity difference GRAS–ECMWF is of the order of 0.1–0.2 %, and the standard deviation is 0.3–0.6 %. In the lower troposphere GRAS refractivity and bending angle indicate a negative bias, which reaches its maximum value in the tropics. In particular the retrieved refractivity is biased by up to 2.5 %. The negative bias pattern is similar to that found in the statistical validation of COSMIC data. This makes it probable that the bias should not be attributed to the instrument design or hardware.

Description: Eight-component retrievals from ground-based MAX-DOAS observations Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 4, 1027-1044, 2011 Author(s): H. Irie, H. Takashima, Y. Kanaya, K. F. Boersma, L. Gast, F. Wittrock, D. Brunner, Y. Zhou, and M. Van Roozendael We attempt for the first time to retrieve lower-tropospheric vertical profile information for 8 quantities from ground-based Multi-Axis Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS) observations. The components retrieved are the aerosol extinction coefficients at two wavelengths, 357 and 476 nm, and NO 2 , HCHO, CHOCHO, H 2 O, SO 2 , and O 3 volume mixing ratios. A Japanese MAX-DOAS profile retrieval algorithm, version 1 (JM1), is applied to observations performed at Cabauw, the Netherlands (51.97° N, 4.93° E), in June–July 2009 during the Cabauw Intercomparison campaign of Nitrogen Dioxide measuring Instruments (CINDI). Of the retrieved profiles, we focus here on the lowest-layer data (mean values at altitudes 0–1 km), where the sensitivity is usually highest owing to the longest light path. In support of the capability of the multi-component retrievals, we find reasonable overall agreement with independent data sets, including a regional chemical transport model (CHIMERE) and in situ observations performed near the surface (2–3 m) and at the 200-m height level of the tall tower in Cabauw. Plumes of enhanced HCHO and SO 2 were likely affected by biogenic and ship emissions, respectively, and an improvement in their emission strengths is suggested for better agreement between CHIMERE simulations and MAX-DOAS observations. Analysis of air mass factors indicates that the horizontal spatial representativeness of MAX-DOAS observations is about 3–15 km (depending mainly on aerosol extinction), comparable to or better than the spatial resolution of current UV-visible satellite observations and model calculations. These demonstrate that MAX-DOAS provides multi-component data useful for the evaluation of satellite observations and model calculations and can play an important role in bridging different data sets having different spatial resolutions.

Description: Preliminary validation of column-averaged volume mixing ratios of carbon dioxide and methane retrieved from GOSAT short-wavelength infrared spectra Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 4, 1061-1076, 2011 Author(s): I. Morino, O. Uchino, M. Inoue, Y. Yoshida, T. Yokota, P. O. Wennberg, G. C. Toon, D. Wunch, C. M. Roehl, J. Notholt, T. Warneke, J. Messerschmidt, D. W. T. Griffith, N. M. Deutscher, V. Sherlock, B. Connor, J. Robinson, R. Sussmann, and M. Rettinger Column-averaged volume mixing ratios of carbon dioxide and methane retrieved from the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) Short-Wavelength InfraRed observation (GOSAT SWIR X CO 2 and X CH 4 ) were compared with the reference calibrated data obtained by ground-based high-resolution Fourier Transform Spectrometers (g-b FTSs) participating in the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). Preliminary results are as follows: the GOSAT SWIR X CO 2 and X CH 4 (Version 01.xx) are biased low by 8.85 ± 4.75 ppm (2.3 ± 1.2 %) and 20.4 ± 18.9 ppb (1.2 ± 1.1 %), respectively. The standard deviation of the GOSAT SWIR X CO 2 and X CH 4 is about 1 % (1 σ) after correcting the negative biases of X CO 2 and X CH 4 by 8.85 ppm and 20.4 ppb, respectively. The latitudinal distributions of zonal means of the GOSAT SWIR X CO 2 and X CH 4 show similar features to those of the g-b FTS data except for the negative biases in the GOSAT data.

Description: Remote sensing of aerosols over snow using infrared AATSR observations Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 4, 1133-1145, 2011 Author(s): L. G. Istomina, W. von Hoyningen-Huene, A. A. Kokhanovsky, E. Schultz, and J. P. Burrows Infrared (IR) retrievals of aerosol optical thickness (AOT) are challenging because of the low reflectance of aerosol layer at longer wavelengths. In this paper we present a closer analysis of this problem, performed with radiative transfer (RT) simulations for coarse and accumulation mode of four main aerosol components. It shows the strong angular dependence of aerosol IR reflectance at low solar elevations resulting from the significant asymmetry of aerosol phase function at these wavelengths. This results in detectable values of aerosol IR reflectance at certain non-nadir observation angles providing the advantage of multiangle remote sensing instruments for a retrieval of AOT at longer wavelengths. Such retrievals can be of importance e.g. in case of a very strong effect of the surface on the top of atmosphere (TOA) reflectance in the visible spectral range. In the current work, a new method to retrieve AOT of the coarse and accumulation mode particles over snow has been developed using the measurements of Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) on board the ENVISAT satellite. The algorithm uses AATSR channel at 3.7 μm and utilizes its dual-viewing observation technique, implying the forward view with an observation zenith angle of around 55 degrees and the nadir view. It includes cloud/snow discrimination, extraction of the atmospheric reflectance out of measured brightness temperature (BT) at 3.7 μm, and interpolation of look-up tables (LUTs) for a given aerosol reflectance. The algorithm uses LUTs, separately simulated with RT forward calculations. The resulting AOT at 500 nm is estimated from the value at 3.7 μm using a fixed Angström parameter. The presented method has been validated against ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) data for 4 high Arctic stations and shows good agreement. A case study has been performed at W-Greenland on 5 July 2008. The day before was characterized by a noticeable dust event. The retrieved AOT maps of the region show a clear increase of AOT in the Kangerlussuaq area. The area of increased AOT was detected on 5 July on the ice sheet east of Kangelussuaq, opposite to the observed north easterly wind at ground level. This position can be explained by a small scale atmospheric circulation transporting the mobilized mineral dust upslope, after its intrusion into the upper branch of the circulation. The performed study of atmospheric reflectance at 3.7 μm also shows possibilities for the detection and retrievals of cloud properties over snow surfaces.

Description: Analytical system for stable carbon isotope measurements of low molecular weight (C 2 -C 6 ) hydrocarbons Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 4, 1161-1175, 2011 Author(s): A. Zuiderweg, R. Holzinger, and T. Röckmann We present setup, testing and initial results from a new automated system for stable carbon isotope ratio measurements on C 2 to C 6 atmospheric hydrocarbons. The inlet system allows analysis of trace gases from air samples ranging from a few liters for urban samples and samples with high mixing ratios, to many tens of liters for samples from remote unpolluted regions with very low mixing ratios. The centerpiece of the sample preparation is the separation trap, which is used to separate CO 2 and methane from the compounds of interest. The main features of the system are (i) the capability to sample up to 300 l of air, (ii) long term (since May 2009) operational δ 13 C accuracy levels in the range 0.3–0.8 ‰ (1-σ), and (iii) detection limits of order 1.5–2.5 ngC (collected amount of substance) for all reported compounds. The first application of this system was the analysis of 21 ambient air samples taken during 48 h in August 2009 in Utrecht, the Netherlands. Results obtained are generally in good agreement with those from similar urban ambient air studies. Short sample intervals allowed by the design of the instrument help to illustrate the complex diurnal behavior of hydrocarbons in an urban environment, where diverse sources, dynamical processes, and chemical reactions are present.

Description: Daytime variations of foE connected to earthquakes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1807-1812, 2011 Author(s): E. V. Liperovskaya, V. V. Bogdanov, P.-F. Biagi, C.-V. Meister, and V. A. Liperovsky In the present work it is shown that, in accordance with the observations of the vertical sounding station "Tashkent", the critical foE-frequency of the daytime E-layer increases about one day before winter-earthquakes with magnitudes M 〉 5 and depths of the epicentre of h 〈 60 km, which appeared at distances of R 〈 2000 km from the station. The reliability of the result is larger than 99 %. The phenomenon is not observed for summer-earthquakes. It seems to be determined by the atmospheric wind system. Further, the variations of the foE-frequency are compared with possible simultaneous variations of the critical frequency foF2 of the F2-layer. First results show that only very large changes of the ionisation density in the E-layer influence the ionisation density in the F-region. Therefore, no synchronous growth of the foE- and foF2-frequencies 1–2 days before seismic shocks could be observed.

Description: Source brightness fluctuation correction of solar absorption fourier transform mid infrared spectra Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 4, 1045-1051, 2011 Author(s): T. Ridder, T. Warneke, and J. Notholt The precision and accuracy of trace gas observations using solar absorption Fourier Transform infrared spectrometry depend on the stability of the light source. Fluctuations in the source brightness, however, cannot always be avoided. Current correction schemes, which calculate a corrected interferogram as the ratio of the raw DC interferogram and a smoothed DC interferogram, are applicable only to near infrared measurements. Spectra in the mid infrared spectral region below 2000 cm −1 are generally considered uncorrectable, if they are measured with a MCT detector. Such measurements introduce an unknown offset to MCT interferograms, which prevents the established source brightness fluctuation correction. This problem can be overcome by a determination of the offset using the modulation efficiency of the instrument. With known modulation efficiency the offset can be calculated, and the source brightness correction can be performed on the basis of offset-corrected interferograms. We present a source brightness fluctuation correction method which performs the smoothing of the raw DC interferogram in the interferogram domain by an application of a running mean instead of high-pass filtering the corresponding spectrum after Fourier transformation of the raw DC interferogram. This smoothing can be performed with the onboard software of commercial instruments. The improvement of MCT spectra and subsequent ozone profile and total column retrievals is demonstrated. Application to InSb interferograms in the near infrared spectral region proves the equivalence with the established correction scheme.

Description: Shallow circulation groundwater – the main type of water containing hazardous radon concentration Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1695-1703, 2011 Author(s): T. A. Przylibski The main factors affecting the value of 222 Rn activity concentration in groundwater are the emanation coefficient of reservoir rocks ( K em ), the content of parent 226 Ra in these rocks ( q ), changes in the volume and flow velocity as well as the mixing of various groundwater components in the circulation system. The highest values of 222 Rn activity concentration are recorded in groundwaters flowing towards an intake through strongly cracked reservoir rocks undergoing weathering processes. Because of these facts, waters with hazardous radon concentration levels, i.e. containing more than 100 Bq dm −3 222 Rn, could be characterised in the way that follows. They are classified as radon waters, high-radon waters and extreme-radon waters. They belong to shallow circulation systems (at less than a few dozen metres below ground level) and are contemporary infiltration waters, i.e. their underground flow time ranges from several fortnights to a few decades. Because of this, these are usually poorly mineralised waters (often below 0.2–0.5 g dm −3 ). Their resources are renewable, but also vulnerable to contamination. Waters of this type are usually drawn from private intakes, supplying water to one or at most a few households. Due to an increased risk of developing lung tumours, radon should be removed from such waters when still in the intake. To achieve this aim, appropriate legislation should be introduced in many countries.

Description: Precipitation change in Southern Italy linked to global scale oscillation indexes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1683-1694, 2011 Author(s): T. Caloiero, R. Coscarelli, E. Ferrari, and M. Mancini This study investigates precipitation variability in five regions of Southern Italy (Campania, Apulia, Basilicata, Calabria and Sicily) using a homogeneous database of about 70 rain gauges with more than 50 years of observation. First, a statistical analysis was performed through the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test in order to determine rainfall the trend on both yearly and seasonal scales. Then, the relationship between the rainfall and some teleconnection pattern indexes was investigated using Spearman's test. The results show remarkable statistically significant negative trends for annual and winter aggregations in most part of the series. Moreover, a strong correlation has emerged between the teleconnection patterns and precipitation in Southern Italy, particularly in winter and on the Tyrrhenian side of the study area.

Description: Reconstruction of Atlantic historical winter coastal storms in the Spanish coasts of the Gulf of Cadiz, 1929–2005 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1715-1722, 2011 Author(s): P. Ribera, D. Gallego, C. Pena-Ortiz, L. Del Rio, T. A. Plomaritis, and J. Benavente This paper presents the reconstruction of a climatological series of winter coastal storms on the northern coasts of the Gulf of Cadiz. This series has been put together using information extracted from regional and local Spanish newspapers. It includes all the storms coming from the Atlantic sector that have been detected during the winter season, from October to March, between 1929 and 2005. In order to validate this historical storm series, it has been compared with storms series identified from quasi-observational data and using different wave heights as thresholds to decide what is to be considered as a coastal storm. Nearly 2.6 reports per year about coastal storms are published in the press which correspond to waves of 3.6 m high or more and to prevailing winds from a direction ranging between SSW and WNW. A long- term positive trend has been detected for the complete storm series. If only the instrumental period is analysed, no significant trend is detected. It is suggested that this difference might be associated with the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation over the occurrence of storms in this area.

Description: The neutral temperature in the ionospheric dynamo region and the ionospheric F region density during Wenchuan and Pingtung Doublet earthquakes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1759-1768, 2011 Author(s): Y. Y. Sun, K.-I. Oyama, J. Y. Liu, H. K. Jhuang, and C. Z. Cheng One of the possible candidates which modifies the ionosphere before large earthquake is electric field. We presume that the electric field associated with large earthquakes is generated in the ionosphere dynamo region (100–120 km). This paper tries to identify the evidence of the contribution of the neutral atmosphere in the dynamo region. The relationship between the critical frequency at the F2 peak (foF2) and the height profile of the neutral atmosphere temperature was studied for two large earthquakes: Wenchuan, 2008 and Pingtung Doublet, 2006. It is found that the wave amplitude of the vertical wavelength 20–30 km which is usually superposed on the height profile of the neutral atmosphere temperature enhances when the foF2 increases. The correlation between the wave amplitude and foF2 is found better along a longitudinal direction than along latitude direction.

Description: The relationship between the performance of soil conditions and damage following an earthquake: a case study in Istanbul, Turkey Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1745-1758, 2011 Author(s): G. Ç. İnce Istanbul city has experienced many strong earthquakes throughout its history and suffered extensive damage. The old Istanbul (Fatih and Eminonu districts), one of the most densely populated locations of Istanbul city, is a commercial centre and has many significant historical buildings. In this study, the data pertaining to the damage sustained by historical artifacts and structures from past earthquakes, are examined along with the soil amplification of the region, the liquefaction and slope stability risk in relation to the seismic microzonation maps which were prepared using geographic information system techniques. The relationship between soil behaviour and the damage resulting from previous earthquakes. The structural damage observed in the region was in accordance with the microzonation maps. Since the area does not have a high risk in terms of slope stability, this does not have much impact on the level of damage. However, it was found that soil amplification and partial liquefaction contributed to the damage to historical artifacts and structures.

Description: Evaluation of future hydrological cycle under climate change scenarios in a mesoscale Alpine watershed of Italy Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1769-1785, 2011 Author(s): B. Groppelli, A. Soncini, D. Bocchiola, and R. Rosso We investigate future (2045–2054) hydrological cycle of the snow fed Oglio (≈1800 km 2 ) Alpine watershed in Northern Italy. A Stochastic Space Random Cascade (SSRC) approach is used to downscale future precipitation from three general circulation models, GCMs (PCM, CCSM3, and HadCM3) available within the IPCC's data base and chosen for this purpose based upon previous studies. We then downscale temperature output from the GCMs to obtain temperature fields for the area. We also consider a projected scenario based upon trends locally observed in former studies, LOC scenario. Then, we feed the downscaled fields to a minimal hydrological model to build future hydrological scenarios. We provide projected flow duration curves and selected flow descriptors, giving indication of expected modified (against control run for 1990–1999) regime of low flows and droughts and flood hazard, and thus evaluate modified peak floods regime through indexed flood. We then assess the degree of uncertainty, or spread, of the projected water resources scenarios by feeding the hydrological model with ensembles projections consistent with our deterministic (GCMs + LOC) scenarios, and we evaluate the significance of the projected flow variables against those observed in the control run. The climate scenarios from the adopted GCMs differ greatly from one another with respect to projected precipitation amount and temperature regimes, and so do the projected hydrological scenarios. A relatively good agreement is found upon prospective shrinkage and shorter duration of the seasonal snow cover due to increased temperature patterns, and upon prospective increase of hydrological losses, i.e. evapotranspiration, for the same reason. However, precipitation patterns are less consistent, because HadCM3 and PCM models project noticeably increased precipitation for 2045–2054, whereas CCSM3 provides decreased precipitation patterns therein. The LOC scenario instead displays unchanged precipitation. The ensemble simulations indicate that several projected flow variables under the considered scenarios are significantly different from their control run counterparts, and also that snow cover seems to significantly decrease in duration and depth. The proposed hydrological scenarios eventually provide a what-if analysis, giving a broad view of the possible expected impacts of climate change within the Italian Alps, necessary to trigger the discussion about future adaptation strategies.

Description: An improved NO 2 retrieval for the GOME-2 satellite instrument Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 4, 1147-1159, 2011 Author(s): A. Richter, M. Begoin, A. Hilboll, and J. P. Burrows Satellite observations of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) provide valuable information on both stratospheric and tropospheric composition. Nadir measurements from GOME, SCIAMACHY, OMI, and GOME-2 have been used in many studies on tropospheric NO 2 burdens, the importance of different NO x emissions sources and their change over time. The observations made by the three GOME-2 instruments will extend the existing data set by more than a decade, and a high quality of the data as well as their good consistency with existing time series is of particular importance. In this paper, an improved GOME-2 NO 2 retrieval is described which reduces the scatter of the individual NO 2 columns globally but in particular in the region of the Southern Atlantic Anomaly. This is achieved by using a larger fitting window including more spectral points, and by applying a two step spike removal algorithm in the fit. The new GOME-2 data set is shown to have good consistency with SCIAMACHY NO 2 columns. Remaining small differences are shown to be linked to changes in the daily solar irradiance measurements used in both GOME-2 and SCIAMACHY retrievals. In the large retrieval window, a not previously identified spectral signature was found which is linked to deserts and other regions with bare soil. Inclusion of this empirically derived pseudo cross-section significantly improves the retrievals and potentially provides information on surface properties and desert aerosols. Using the new GOME-2 NO 2 data set, a long-term average of tropospheric columns was computed and high-pass filtered. The resulting map shows evidence for pollution from several additional shipping lanes, not previously identified in satellite observations. This illustrates the excellent signal to noise ratio achievable with the improved GOME-2 retrievals.

Description: A tool for assessing the quality of the Mediterranean cyclone forecast: a numerical index Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1787-1794, 2011 Author(s): M. A. Picornell, A. Jansà, and A. Genovés Cyclones affecting the Mediterranean region, sometimes related to severe weather events, are often not well represented enough in numerical model predictions. Assessing the quality of the forecast of these cyclonic structures would be a significant advance in better knowing the goodness of the weather forecast in this region, and particularly the quality of predictions of high impact phenomena. In order to estimate the cyclone forecast uncertainty in operational models, in this work we compare two cyclone databases for the period 2006–2007: one from the operational analyses of the T799 ECMWF deterministic model; and the other from the forecasts provided by the same model in three ranges, H+12, H+24, and H+48. The skill of the model to detect cyclones and its accuracy in describing their features are assessed. An index is presented as an indicator of the quality of the prediction, derived from the frequency distribution of errors in the prediction of four characteristics of the cyclone: position, central pressure value, geostrophic circulation, and domain. Some sub-indexes are derived to verify each of the variables separately in order to analyse the most frequent sources of error. Other sub-indexes are also defined to indicate possible biases in the numerical prediction model.

Description: Matching radiative transfer models and radiosonde data from the EPS/Metop Sodankylä campaign to IASI measurements Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 4, 1177-1189, 2011 Author(s): X. Calbet, R. Kivi, S. Tjemkes, F. Montagner, and R. Stuhlmann Radiances observed from IASI are compared to calculated ones. Calculated radiances are obtained using several radiative transfer models (OSS, LBLRTM v11.3 and v11.6) on best estimates of the atmospheric state vectors. The atmospheric state vectors are derived from cryogenic frost point hygrometer and humidity dry bias corrected RS92 measurements flown on sondes launched 1 h and 5 min before IASI overpass time. The temperature and humidity best estimate profiles are obtained by interpolating or extrapolating these measurements to IASI overpass time. The IASI observed and calculated radiances match to within one sigma IASI instrument noise in the spectral region where water vapour is a strong absorber (wavenumber, ν, in the range of 1500 ≤ ν ≤ 1570 and 1615 ≤ ν ≤ 1800 cm −1 ).

Description: Eddy covariance measurements with high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometry: a new approach to chemically resolved aerosol fluxes Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 4, 1275-1289, 2011 Author(s): D. K. Farmer, J. R. Kimmel, G. Phillips, K. S. Docherty, D. R. Worsnop, D. Sueper, E. Nemitz, and J. L. Jimenez Although laboratory studies show that biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) yield substantial secondary organic aerosol (SOA), production of biogenic SOA as indicated by upward fluxes has not been conclusively observed over forests. Further, while aerosols are known to deposit to surfaces, few techniques exist to provide chemically-resolved particle deposition fluxes. To better constrain aerosol sources and sinks, we have developed a new technique to directly measure fluxes of chemically-resolved submicron aerosols using the high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (HR-AMS) in a new, fast eddy covariance mode. This approach takes advantage of the instrument's ability to quantitatively identify both organic and inorganic components, including ammonium, sulphate and nitrate, at a temporal resolution of several Hz. The new approach has been successfully deployed over a temperate ponderosa pine plantation in California during the BEARPEX-2007 campaign, providing both total and chemically resolved non-refractory (NR) PM 1 fluxes. Average deposition velocities for total NR-PM 1 aerosol at noon were 2.05 ± 0.04 mm s −1 . Using a high resolution measurement of the NH 2 + and NH 3 + fragments, we demonstrate the first eddy covariance flux measurements of particulate ammonium, which show a noon-time deposition velocity of 1.9 ± 0.7 mm s −1 and are dominated by deposition of ammonium sulphate.

Description: Occurrence analysis of daily rainfalls through non-homogeneous Poissonian processes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1657-1668, 2011 Author(s): B. Sirangelo, E. Ferrari, and D. L. De Luca A stochastic model based on a non-homogeneous Poisson process, characterised by a time-dependent intensity of rainfall occurrence, is employed to explain seasonal effects of daily rainfalls exceeding prefixed threshold values. The data modelling has been performed with a partition of observed daily rainfall data into a calibration period for parameter estimation and a validation period for checking on occurrence process changes. The model has been applied to a set of rain gauges located in different geographical areas of Southern Italy. The results show a good fit for time-varying intensity of rainfall occurrence process by 2-harmonic Fourier law and no statistically significant evidence of changes in the validation period for different threshold values.

Description: Regional frequency analysis of extreme storm surges along the French coast Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1627-1639, 2011 Author(s): L. Bardet, C.-M. Duluc, V. Rebour, and J. L'Her A good knowledge of extreme storm surges is necessary to ensure protection against flood. In this paper we introduce a methodology to determine time series of skew surges in France as well as a statistical approach for estimating extreme storm surges. With the aim to cope with the outlier issue in surge series, a regional frequency analysis has been carried out for the surges along the Atlantic coast and the Channel coast. This methodology is not the current approach used to estimate extreme surges in France. First results showed that the extreme events identified as outliers in at-site analyses do not appear to be outliers any more in the regional empirical distribution. Indeed the regional distribution presents a curve to the top with these extreme events that a mixed exponential distribution seems to recreate. Thus, the regional approach appears to be more reliable for some sites than at-site analyses. A fast comparison at a given site showed surge estimates with the regional approach and a mixed exponential distribution are higher than surge estimates with an at-site fitting. In the case of Brest, the 1000-yr return surge is 167 cm in height with the regional approach instead of 126 cm with an at-site analysis.

Description: Space and ground segment performance and lessons learned of the FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC mission: four years in orbit Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 4, 1115-1132, 2011 Author(s): C.-J. Fong, D. Whiteley, E. Yang, K. Cook, V. Chu, B. Schreiner, D. Ector, P. Wilczynski, T.-Y. Liu, and N. Yen The FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate) Mission consisting of six Low-Earth-Orbit (LEO) satellites is the world's first demonstration constellation using radio occultation signals from Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites. The atmospheric profiles derived by processing radio occultation signals are retrieved in near real-time for global weather/climate monitoring, numerical weather prediction, and space weather research. The mission has processed, on average, 1400 to 1800 high-quality atmospheric sounding profiles per day. The atmospheric radio occultation data are assimilated into operational numerical weather prediction models for global weather prediction, including typhoon/hurricane/cyclone forecasts. The radio occultation data has shown a positive impact on weather predictions at many national weather forecast centers. A follow-on mission was proposed that transitions the current experimental research mission into a significantly improved real-time operational mission, which will reliably provide 8000 radio occultation soundings per day. The follow-on mission, as planned, will consist of 12 LEO satellites (compared to 6 satellites for the current mission) with data latency requirement of 45 min (compared to 3 h for the current mission), which will provide greatly enhanced opportunities for operational forecasts and scientific research. This paper will address the FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC system and mission overview, the spacecraft and ground system performance after four years in orbit, the lessons learned from the encountered technical challenges and observations, and the expected design improvements for the spacecraft and ground system for FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2.

Description: Exploring Earth's atmosphere with radio occultation: contributions to weather, climate and space weather Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 4, 1077-1103, 2011 Author(s): R. A. Anthes The launch of the proof-of-concept mission GPS/MET (Global Positioning System/Meteorology) in 1995 began a revolution in profiling Earth's atmosphere through radio occultation (RO). GPS/MET; subsequent single-satellite missions CHAMP (CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload), SAC-C (Satellite de Aplicaciones Cientificas-C), GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment), METOP-A, and TerraSAR-X (Beyerle et al., 2010); and the six-satellite constellation, FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC (Formosa Satellite mission {#}3/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate) have proven the theoretical capabilities of RO to provide accurate and precise profiles of electron density in the ionosphere and refractivity, containing information on temperature and water vapor, in the stratosphere and troposphere. This paper summarizes results from these RO missions and the applications of RO observations to atmospheric research and operational weather analysis and prediction.

Description: Detection of HO 2 by laser-induced fluorescence: calibration and interferences from RO 2 radicals Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 4, 1209-1225, 2011 Author(s): H. Fuchs, B. Bohn, A. Hofzumahaus, F. Holland, K. D. Lu, S. Nehr, F. Rohrer, and A. Wahner HO 2 concentration measurements are widely accomplished by chemical conversion of HO 2 to OH including reaction with NO and subsequent detection of OH by laser-induced fluorescence. RO 2 radicals can be converted to OH via a similar radical reaction sequence including reaction with NO, so that they are potential interferences for HO 2 measurements. Here, the conversion efficiency of various RO 2 species to HO 2 is investigated. Experiments were conducted with a radical source that produces OH and HO 2 by water photolysis at 185 nm, which is frequently used for calibration of LIF instruments. The ratio of HO 2 and the sum of OH and HO 2 concentrations provided by the radical source was investigated and was found to be 0.50 ± 0.02. RO 2 radicals are produced by the reaction of various organic compounds with OH in the radical source. Interferences via chemical conversion from RO 2 radicals produced by the reaction of OH with methane and ethane (H-atom abstraction) are negligible consistent with measurements in the past. However, RO 2 radicals from OH plus alkene- and aromatic-precursors including isoprene (mainly OH-addition) are detected with a relative sensitivity larger than 80 % with respect to that for HO 2 for the configuration of the instrument with which it was operated during field campaigns. Also RO 2 from OH plus methyl vinyl ketone and methacrolein exhibit a relative detection sensitivity of 60 %. Thus, previous measurements of HO 2 radical concentrations with this instrument were biased in the presence of high RO 2 radical concentrations from isoprene, alkenes or aromatics, but were not affected by interferences in remote clean environment with no significant emissions of biogenic VOCs, when the OH reactivity was dominated by small alkanes. By reducing the NO concentration and/or the transport time between NO addition and OH detection, interference from these RO 2 species are suppressed to values below 20 % relative to the HO 2 detection sensitivity. The HO 2 conversion efficiency is also smaller by a factor of four, but this is still sufficient for atmospheric HO 2 concentration measurements for a wide range of conditions.

Description: Diode laser-based cavity ring-down instrument for NO 3 , N 2 O 5 , NO, NO 2 and O 3 from aircraft Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 4, 1227-1240, 2011 Author(s): N. L. Wagner, W. P. Dubé, R. A. Washenfelder, C. J. Young, I. B. Pollack, T. B. Ryerson, and S. S. Brown This article presents a diode laser-based, cavity ring-down spectrometer for simultaneous in situ measurements of four nitrogen oxide species, NO 3 , N 2 O 5 , NO, NO 2 , as well as O 3 , designed for deployment on aircraft. The instrument measures NO 3 and NO 2 by optical extinction at 662 nm and 405 nm, respectively; N 2 O 5 is measured by thermal conversion to NO 3 , while NO and O 3 are measured by chemical conversion to NO 2 . The instrument has several advantages over previous instruments developed by our group for measurement of NO 2 , NO 3 and N 2 O 5 alone, based on a pulsed Nd:YAG and dye laser. First, the use of continuous wave diode lasers reduces the requirements for power and weight and eliminates hazardous materials. Second, detection of NO 2 at 405 nm is more sensitive than our previously reported 532 nm instrument, and does not have a measurable interference from O 3 . Third, the instrument includes chemical conversion of NO and O 3 to NO 2 to provide measurements of total NO x (= NO + NO 2 ) and O x (= NO 2 + O 3 ) on two separate channels; mixing ratios of NO and O 3 are determined by subtraction of NO 2 . Finally, all five species are calibrated against a single standard based on 254 nm O 3 absorption to provide high accuracy. Disadvantages include an increased sensitivity to water vapor on the 662 nm NO 3 and N 2 O 5 channels and a modest reduction in sensitivity for these species compared to the pulsed laser instrument. The in-flight detection limit for both NO 3 and N 2 O 5 is 3 pptv (2 σ, 1 s) and for NO, NO 2 and O 3 is 140, 90, and 120 pptv (2 σ, 1 s) respectively. Demonstrated performance of the instrument in a laboratory/ground based environment is better by approximately a factor of 2–3. The NO and NO 2 measurements are less precise than research-grade chemiluminescence instruments. However, the combination of these five species in a single instrument, calibrated to a single analytical standard, provides a complete and accurate picture of nighttime nitrogen oxide chemistry. The instrument performance is demonstrated using data acquired during a recent field campaign in California.

Description: Probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts on durum wheat in the Mediterranean region Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1293-1302, 2011 Author(s): R. Ferrise, M. Moriondo, and M. Bindi Recently, the availability of multi-model ensemble prediction methods has permitted a shift from a scenario-based approach to a risk-based approach in assessing the effects of climate change. This provides more useful information to decision-makers who need probability estimates to assess the seriousness of the projected impacts. In this study, a probabilistic framework for evaluating the risk of durum wheat yield shortfall over the Mediterranean Basin has been exploited. An artificial neural network, trained to emulate the outputs of a process-based crop growth model, has been adopted to create yield response surfaces which are then overlaid with probabilistic projections of future temperature and precipitation changes in order to estimate probabilistic projections of future yields. The risk is calculated as the relative frequency of projected yields below a selected threshold. In contrast to previous studies, which suggest that the beneficial effects of elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration over the next few decades would outweigh the detrimental effects of the early stages of climatic warming and drying, the results of this study are of greater concern.

Description: Debris-flow activity in abandoned channels of the Manival torrent reconstructed with LiDAR and tree-ring data Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1247-1257, 2011 Author(s): J. Lopez Saez, C. Corona, M. Stoffel, A. Gotteland, F. Berger, and F. Liébault Hydrogeomorphic processes are a major threat in many parts of the Alps, where they periodically damage infrastructure, disrupt transportation corridors or even cause loss of life. Nonetheless, past torrential activity and the analysis of areas affected during particular events remain often imprecise. It was therefore the purpose of this study to reconstruct spatio-temporal patterns of past debris-flow activity in abandoned channels on the forested cone of the Manival torrent (Massif de la Chartreuse, French Prealps). A Light Detecting and Ranging (LiDAR) generated Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was used to identify five abandoned channels and related depositional forms (lobes, lateral levees) in the proximal alluvial fan of the torrent. A total of 156 Scots pine trees ( Pinus sylvestris L.) with clear signs of debris flow events was analyzed and growth disturbances (GD) assessed, such as callus tissue, the onset of compression wood or abrupt growth suppression. In total, 375 GD were identified in the tree-ring samples, pointing to 13 debris-flow events for the period 1931–2008. While debris flows appear to be very common at Manival, they have only rarely propagated outside the main channel over the past 80 years. Furthermore, analysis of the spatial distribution of disturbed trees contributed to the identification of four patterns of debris-flow routing and led to the determination of three preferential breakout locations. Finally, the results of this study demonstrate that the temporal distribution of debris flows did not exhibit significant variations since the beginning of the 20th century.

Description: Assessment of possible damaged areas due to landslide-induced waves at a constructed reservoir using empirical approaches: Kurtun (North Turkey) Dam reservoir area Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1341-1350, 2011 Author(s): A. Akgün Landslide-induced wave in lakes or offshore is a natural hazard of significant concern throughout the world. In Turkey, several dam reservoir areas suffer from this problem, motivating for the exploration of this phenomenon. In this study, the potential for landslide-induced wave generation and the possible adverse effects of such an event were investigated for the Kurtun Dam reservoir area. This area is prone to translational debris-type landslides, and such slides represent a threat with respect to wave generation. To investigate this problem, a potential landslide was initially inspected with respect to key geometrical and index parameters, such as the internal friction angle and unit weight of the landslide material. After obtaining these data, the potential of sub-aerial landslide-induced wave characteristics such as wave height, wave run-up on the opposite slope and wave velocity were calculated using existing empirical relationships. Based on the obtained wave properties, a potential damage assessment was performed for vulnerable areas in recognition of the fact that the Kurtun Dam and Kurtun district are threatened by potential wave occurrence. According to the findings obtained from the potential damage assessment, it was determined that the Kurtun district and the Kurtun portion of the Kurtun-Gumushane highway are located within the run-up impact area. However, the Kurtun Dam was determined to be relatively safe due to the distance between the landslide area and the dam.

Description: The sensitivity of warm period precipitation forecasts to various modifications of the Kain-Fritsch Convective Parameterization scheme Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1327-1339, 2011 Author(s): N. Mazarakis, V. Kotroni, K. Lagouvardos, A. A. Argiriou, and C. J. Anderson The sensitivity of quantitative precipitation forecasts to various modifications of the Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization scheme (CPS) is examined for twenty selected cases characterized by intense convective activity and widespread precipitation over Greece, during the warm period of 2005–2007. The study is conducted using the MM5 model with a two nested domains strategy, with horizontal grid increments of 24 and 8 km, respectively. Five modifications to the KF CPS, each designed to test the sensitivity of the model to the convective scheme formulation, are discussed. The modifications include: (i) the maximization of the convective scheme precipitation efficiency, (ii) the change of the convective time step, (iii) the forcing of the convective scheme to produce more/less cloud material, (iv) changes to the trigger function and (v) the alteration of the vertical profile of updraft mass flux detrainment. The simulated precipitation from the 8-km grid is verified against raingauge measurements. Although skill scores vary widely among the cases and the precipitation thresholds, model results using the modifications of the convective scheme show improvements in 6-h precipitation totals compared to simulations generated using the unmodified convective scheme. In general, forcing the model to produce less cloud material improves the precipitation forecast for the moderate and high precipitation amounts, while the same modification and the change of the convective time step to 1 min has the same result for the high precipitation thresholds. The increase of convective time step to 15 min, the maximization of precipitation efficiency and the changes to the trigger function give similar results for medium and high precipitation. On the other hand, the forecast for the light precipitation is improved by forcing the model to produce more cloud material as well as by the alteration of the vertical profile of updraft mass flux detrainment.

Description: Future changes in European winter storm losses and extreme wind speeds inferred from GCM and RCM multi-model simulations Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1351-1370, 2011 Author(s): M. G. Donat, G. C. Leckebusch, S. Wild, and U. Ulbrich Extreme wind speeds and related storm loss potential in Europe have been investigated using multi-model simulations from global (GCM) and regional (RCM) climate models. Potential future changes due to anthropogenic climate change have been analysed from these simulations following the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. The large number of available simulations allows an estimation of the robustness of detected future changes. All the climate models reproduced the observed spatial patterns of wind speeds, although some models displayed systematic biases. A storm loss model was applied to the GCM and RCM simulated wind speeds, resulting in realistic mean loss amounts calculated from 20th century climate simulations, although the inter-annual variability of losses is generally underestimated. In future climate simulations, enhanced extreme wind speeds were found over northern parts of Central and Western Europe in most simulations and in the ensemble mean (up to 5%). As a consequence, the loss potential is also higher in these regions, particularly in Central Europe. Conversely, a decrease in extreme wind speeds was found in Southern Europe, as was an associated reduction in loss potential. There was considerable spread in the projected changes of individual ensemble members, with some indicating an opposite signature to the ensemble mean. Downscaling of the large-scale simulations with RCMs has been shown to be an important source of uncertainty. Even RCMs with identical boundary forcings can show a wide range of potential changes. The robustness of the projected changes was estimated using two different measures. First, the inter-model standard deviation was calculated; however, it is sensitive to outliers and thus displayed large uncertainty ranges. Second, a multi-model combinatorics approach considered all possible sub-ensembles from GCMs and RCMs, hence taking into account the arbitrariness of model selection for multi-model studies. Based on all available GCM and RCM simulations, for example, a 25% mean increase in risk of loss for Germany has been estimated for the end of the 21st century, with a 90% confidence range of +15 to +35%.

Description: Evidence of a previously unrecorded local tsunami, 13 April 2010, Cook Islands: implications for Pacific Island countries Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1371-1379, 2011 Author(s): J. Goff Tsunami hazard assessments for Pacific Islands Countries (PICs) tend to focus on subduction zone sources. It is generally recognised that while volcanic-related tsunamigenic sources exist, they are probably only of minor relevance to the overall hazardscape of the Pacific. This paper outlines the evidence for a previously unrecorded local tsunami that struck the uninhabited south coast of Mangaia, Cook Islands, on 13 April 2010. The tsunami had a maximum inundation of 100 m inland and a runup of 12 m a.s.l. This event was most probably caused by a small submarine slope failure, the most recent of an unknown number of previous inundations. Since most PICs have a volcanic origin, it is suggested that current perceptions about the local and regional significance of such events is inaccurate. A review of volcanic-related tsunamigenic sources throughout the Pacific reveals a wealth of data concerning submarine slope failures in particular and a more general background of active volcanism. These sources are as relevant to PICs close to or far away from subduction zones. As populations grow and the coastlines of many PICs and those on the edge of the Pacific Ocean become increasing occupied, the likelihood for loss of life from these events increases.

Description: Active faults crossing trunk pipeline routes: some important steps to avoid disaster Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1433-1436, 2011 Author(s): V. M. Besstrashnov and A. L. Strom Assessment of seismic strong motion hazard produced by earthquakes originating within causative fault zones allows rather low accuracy of localisation of these structures that can be provided by indirect evidence of fault activity. In contrast, the relevant accuracy of localisation and characterisation of active faults, capable of surface rupturing, can be achieved solely by the use of direct evidence of fault activity. This differentiation requires strict definition of what can be classified as "active fault" and the normalisation of methods used for identification and localisation of active faults crossing oil and natural gas trunk pipelines.

Description: Regional-scale analysis of lake outburst hazards in the southwestern Pamir, Tajikistan, based on remote sensing and GIS Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1447-1462, 2011 Author(s): M. Mergili and J. F. Schneider This paper presents an analysis of the hazards emanating from the sudden drainage of alpine lakes in South-Western Tajik Pamir. In the last 40 yr, several new lakes have formed in the front of retreating glacier tongues, and existing lakes have grown. Other lakes are dammed by landslide deposits or older moraines. In 2002, sudden drainage of a glacial lake in the area triggered a catastrophic debris flow. Building on existing approaches, a rating scheme was devised allowing quick, regional-scale identification of potentially hazardous lakes and possible impact areas. This approach relies on GIS, remote sensing and empirical modelling, largely based on medium-resolution international datasets. Out of the 428 lakes mapped in the area, 6 were rated very hazardous and 34 hazardous. This classification was used for the selection of lakes requiring in-depth investigation. Selected cases are presented and discussed in order to understand the potentials and limitations of the approach used. Such an understanding is essential for the appropriate application of the methodology for risk mitigation purposes.

Description: Retrieval of water vapor vertical distributions in the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere from SCIAMACHY limb measurements Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 4, 933-954, 2011 Author(s): A. Rozanov, K. Weigel, H. Bovensmann, S. Dhomse, K.-U. Eichmann, R. Kivi, V. Rozanov, H. Vömel, M. Weber, and J. P. Burrows This study describes the retrieval of water vapor vertical distributions in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) altitude range from space-borne observations of the scattered solar light made in limb viewing geometry. First results using measurements from SCIAMACHY (Scanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY) aboard ENVISAT (Environmental Satellite) are presented here. In previous publications, the retrieval of water vapor vertical distributions has been achieved exploiting either the emitted radiance leaving the atmosphere or the transmitted solar radiation. In this study, the scattered solar radiation is used as a new source of information on the water vapor content in the UTLS region. A recently developed retrieval algorithm utilizes the differential absorption structure of the water vapor in 1353–1410 nm spectral range and yields the water vapor content in the 11–25 km altitude range. In this study, the retrieval algorithm is successfully applied to SCIAMACHY limb measurements and the resulting water vapor profiles are compared to in situ balloon-borne observations. The results from both satellite and balloon-borne instruments are found to agree typically within 10 %.

Description: Perturbation of convection-permitting NWP forecasts for flash-flood ensemble forecasting Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1529-1544, 2011 Author(s): B. Vincendon, V. Ducrocq, O. Nuissier, and B. Vié Mediterranean intense weather events often lead to devastating flash-floods. Extending the forecasting lead times further than the watershed response times, implies the use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) to drive hydrological models. However, the nature of the precipitating events and the temporal and spatial scales of the watershed response make them difficult to forecast, even using a high-resolution convection-permitting NWP deterministic forecasting. This study proposes a new method to sample the uncertainties of high-resolution NWP precipitation forecasts in order to quantify the predictability of the streamflow forecasts. We have developed a perturbation method based on convection-permitting NWP-model error statistics. It produces short-term precipitation ensemble forecasts from single-value meteorological forecasts. These rainfall ensemble forecasts are then fed into a hydrological model dedicated to flash-flood forecasting to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. The verification on two flash-flood events shows that this forecasting ensemble performs better than the deterministic forecast. The performance of the precipitation perturbation method has also been found to be broadly as good as that obtained using a state-of-the-art research convection-permitting NWP ensemble, while requiring less computing time.

Description: Geomorphological and geochemical characterization of the 11 August 2008 mud volcano eruption at S. Barbara village (Sicily, Italy) and its possible relationship with seismic activity Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1545-1557, 2011 Author(s): P. Madonia, F. Grassa, M. Cangemi, and C. Musumeci On 11 August 2008 a paroxysmal eruption occurred at Santa Barbara mud volcano (MV), located close to Caltanissetta, one of the most densely populated cities of Sicily (Italy). An associated minor event took place on August 2009. Both the events caused severe damage to civil infrastructures located within a range of about 2 km from the eruptive vent. Geomorphological, geochemical, and seismological investigations were carried out for framing the events in the appropriate geodynamic context. Geomorphological surveys recognized, in the immediate surrounding of the main emission point, two different families of processes and landforms: (i) ground deformations and (ii) changes in morphology and number of the fluid emitting vents. These processes were associated to a wider network of fractures, seemingly generated by the shock wave produced by the gas blast that occurred at the main paroxysm. Geochemical characterization allowed an estimation of the source of the fluids, or at least their last standing, at about 3 km depth. Finally, the close time relationships observed between anomalous increments of seismic activity and the two main paroxysmal events accounted for a possible common trigger for both the phenomena, even with different timing due to the very different initial conditions and characteristics of the two processes, i.e. seismogenesis and gas overloading.

Description: Fast NO 2 retrievals from Odin-OSIRIS limb scatter measurements Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 4, 965-972, 2011 Author(s): A. E. Bourassa, C. A. McLinden, C. E. Sioris, S. Brohede, A. F. Bathgate, E. J. Llewellyn, and D. A. Degenstein The feasibility of retrieving vertical profiles of NO 2 from space-based measurements of limb scattered sunlight has been demonstrated using several different data sets since the 1980's. The NO 2 data product routinely retrieved from measurements made by the Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imaging System (OSIRIS) instrument onboard the Odin satellite uses a spectral fitting technique over the 437 to 451 nm range, over which there are 36 individual wavelength measurements. In this work we present a proof of concept technique for the retrieval of NO 2 using only 4 of the 36 OSIRIS measurements in this wavelength range, which reduces the computational cost by almost an order of magnitude. The method is an adaptation of a triplet analysis technique that is currently used for the OSIRIS retrievals of ozone at Chappuis band wavelengths. The results obtained are shown to be in very good agreement with the spectral fit method, and provide an important alternative for applications where the computational burden is very high. Additionally this provides a baseline for future instrument design in terms of cost effectiveness and reducing spectral range requirements.