Publication Date:
2015-11-06
Description:
Over two centuries of economic growth have put undeniable pressure on the ecological systems that underpin human well-being. While it is agreed that these pressures are increasing, views divide on how they may be alleviated. Some suggest technological advances will automatically keep us from transgressing key environmental thresholds; others that policy reform can reconcile economic and ecological goals; while a third school argues that only a fundamental shift in societal values can keep human demands within the Earth's ecological limits. Here we use novel integrated analysis of the energy-water-food nexus, rural land use (including biodiversity), material flows and climate change to explore whether mounting ecological pressures in Australia can be reversed, while the population grows and living standards improve. We show that, in the right circumstances, economic and environmental outcomes can be decoupled. Although economic growth is strong across all scenarios, environmental performance varies widely: pressures are projected to more than double, stabilize or fall markedly by 2050. However, we find no evidence that decoupling will occur automatically. Nor do we find that a shift in societal values is required. Rather, extensions of current policies that mobilize technology and incentivize reduced pressure account for the majority of differences in environmental performance. Our results show that Australia can make great progress towards sustainable prosperity, if it chooses to do so.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Hatfield-Dodds, Steve -- Schandl, Heinz -- Adams, Philip D -- Baynes, Timothy M -- Brinsmead, Thomas S -- Bryan, Brett A -- Chiew, Francis H S -- Graham, Paul W -- Grundy, Mike -- Harwood, Tom -- McCallum, Rebecca -- McCrea, Rod -- McKellar, Lisa E -- Newth, David -- Nolan, Martin -- Prosser, Ian -- Wonhas, Alex -- England -- Nature. 2015 Nov 5;527(7576):49-53. doi: 10.1038/nature16065.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉CSIRO, Black Mountain Laboratories, Acton, ACT 2601, Australia. ; Victoria University, Flinders Street, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia. ; CSIRO, Julius Avenue, North Ryde, NSW 2113, Australia. ; CSIRO, Energy Centre, Mayfield West, NSW 2304, Australia. ; CSIRO, Waite Campus, Urrbrae, SA 5064, Australia. ; CSIRO, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, St Lucia, QLD 4067, Australia. ; CSIRO, Ecosciences Precinct, Dutton Park, QLD 4102, Australia. ; CSIRO, Yarralumla Laboratories, Yarralumla, ACT 2601, Australia.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26536956" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
Keywords:
Australia
;
Biodiversity
;
Climate Change/*economics
;
Conservation of Energy Resources
;
*Conservation of Natural Resources/economics/legislation & jurisprudence/trends
;
*Economic Development/legislation & jurisprudence/trends
;
*Environmental Policy/economics/legislation & jurisprudence/trends
;
Food Supply
;
*Models, Economic
;
*Policy Making
;
Politics
;
Water Supply
Print ISSN:
0028-0836
Electronic ISSN:
1476-4687
Topics:
Biology
,
Chemistry and Pharmacology
,
Medicine
,
Natural Sciences in General
,
Physics
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