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  • 551.6  (38)
  • 550.724  (18)
  • English  (56)
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  • 2020-2022  (56)
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  • 1
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    East Atlantic Pattern Drives Multidecadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variability During the Last Glacial Maximum (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-22
    Description: The variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and its governing processes during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is investigated in the Kiel Climate Model. Under LGM conditions, multidecadal AMOC variability is mainly forced by the surface heat flux variability linked to the East Atlantic pattern (EAP). In contrast, the multidecadal AMOC variability under preindustrial conditions is mainly driven by the surface heat flux variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Stand-alone atmosphere model experiments show that relative to preindustrial conditions, the change in AMOC forcing under LGM conditions is tightly linked to the differences in topography.
    Keywords: 551.6
    Language: English
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  • 2
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    Analyzing Internal Variability and Forced Response of Subdaily and Daily Extreme Precipitation Over Europe (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: At regional to local scales internal variability is expected to be a dominant source of uncertainty in analyzing precipitation extremes and mean precipitation even far into the 21st century. A debated topic is whether a faster increase in subdaily precipitation extremes can be expected. Here we analyzed seasonal maximum precipitation in various time steps (3 hr, days, and 5 days) from a high-resolution 50-member large-ensemble (CRCM5-LE) and compared them to changes in mean precipitation over Europe. Our results show that the magnitude of change in extreme precipitation varies for season and duration. Subdaily extremes increase at higher rates than daily extremes and show higher scaling with temperature. Northern Europe shows widespread scaling above Clausius-Clapeyron of subdaily extremes in all seasons and for daily extremes in winter/spring. Scaling above Clausius-Clapeyron is also visible over Eastern Europe in winter/spring. For most regions and seasons the forced response emerges from the internal variability by midcentury.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; large ensembles ; SMILEs ; Regional Climate Model ; precipitation extremes ; subdaily ; Europe
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    Tropical Expansion Driven by Poleward Advancing Midlatitude Meridional Temperature Gradients (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: An abundance of evidence indicates that the tropics are expanding. Despite many attempts to decipher the cause, the underlying dynamical mechanism driving tropical expansion is still not entirely clear. Here, based on observations, multimodel simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and purposefully designed numerical experiments, the variations and trends of the tropical width are explored from a regional perspective. We find that the width of the tropics closely follows the displacement of oceanic midlatitude meridional temperature gradients (MMTG). Under global warming, as a first-order response, the subtropical ocean experiences more surface warming because of the mean Ekman convergence of anomalously warm water. The enhanced subtropical warming, which is partially independent of natural climate oscillations, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, leads to poleward advance of the MMTG and drives the tropical expansion. Our results, supported by both observations and model simulations, imply that global warming may have already significantly contributed to the ongoing tropical expansion, especially over the ocean-dominant Southern Hemisphere.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; Tropical Expansion ; Ocean Circulation ; Jet Stream ; Storm Track ; Mid-latitude Temperature Gradients ; Global Warming
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    Detecting Climate Change Effects on Vb Cyclones in a 50-Member Single-Model Ensemble Using Machine Learning (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: Vb cyclones are major drivers of extreme precipitation and floods in the study area of hydrological Bavaria (Germany). When assessing climate change impacts on Vb cyclones, internal variability of the climate system is an important underlying uncertainty. Here, we employ a 50-member single-model initial-condition large ensemble of a regional climate model to study climate variability and forced change on Vb cyclones. An artificial neural network detects cutoff lows over central Europe, which are associated with extreme precipitation Vb cyclones. Thus, machine learning filters the large ensemble prior to cyclone tracking. Our results show a striking change in Vb seasonality with a strong decrease of Vb cyclones in summer (−52%) and a large increase in spring (+73%) under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. This change exceeds the noise of internal variability and leads to a peak shift from summer to spring. Additionally, we show significant increases in the daily precipitation intensity during Vb cyclones in all seasons.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; Vb-cyclones ; Machine Learning ; Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) ; Single-Model Large Ensembles ; Internal Variability ; Floods
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Evaluation of FESOM2.0 Coupled to ECHAM6.3: Preindustrial and HighResMIP Simulations (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: A new global climate model setup using FESOM2.0 for the sea ice-ocean component and ECHAM6.3 for the atmosphere and land surface has been developed. Replacing FESOM1.4 by FESOM2.0 promises a higher efficiency of the new climate setup compared to its predecessor. The new setup allows for long-term climate integrations using a locally eddy-resolving ocean. Here it is evaluated in terms of (1) the mean state and long-term drift under preindustrial climate conditions, (2) the fidelity in simulating the historical warming, and (3) differences between coarse and eddy-resolving ocean configurations. The results show that the realism of the new climate setup is overall within the range of existing models. In terms of oceanic temperatures, the historical warming signal is of smaller amplitude than the model drift in case of a relatively short spin-up. However, it is argued that the strategy of “de-drifting” climate runs after the short spin-up, proposed by the HighResMIP protocol, allows one to isolate the warming signal. Moreover, the eddy-permitting/resolving ocean setup shows notable improvements regarding the simulation of oceanic surface temperatures, in particular in the Southern Ocean.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; FESOM ; ocean model ; climate model ; unstructured mesh ; Finite Volume
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to −0.021 ± 0.007 and −0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered.
    Keywords: 333.7 ; 551.6 ; land use change ; climate change projections ; terrestrial ecosystems ; vegetation modeling ; ecosystem service indicators ; legacy effects
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Measuring vertical soil water content profiles by combining horizontal borehole and dispersive surface ground penetrating radar data (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: To investigate transient dynamics of soil water redistribution during infiltration, we conducted horizontal borehole and surface ground penetrating radar measurements during a 4-day infiltration experiment at the rhizontron facility in Selhausen, Germany. Zero-offset ground penetrating radar profiling in horizontal boreholes was used to obtain soil water content information at specific depths (0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8 and 1.2 m). However, horizontal borehole ground penetrating radar measurements do not provide accurate soil water content estimates of the top soil (0–0.1 m depth) because of interference between direct and critically refracted waves. Therefore, surface ground penetrating radar data were additionally acquired to estimate soil water content of the top soil. Due to the generation of electromagnetic waveguides in the top soil caused by infiltration, a strong dispersion in the ground penetrating radar data was observed in 500 MHz surface ground penetrating radar data. A dispersion inversion was thus performed with these surface ground penetrating radar data to obtain soil water content information for the top 0.1 m of the soil. By combining the complementary borehole and surface ground penetrating radar data, vertical soil water content profiles were obtained, which were used to investigate vertical soil water redistribution. Reasonable consistency was found between the ground penetrating radar results and independent soil water content data derived from time domain reflectometry measurements. Because of the improved spatial representativeness of the ground penetrating radar measurements, the soil water content profiles obtained by ground penetrating radar better matched the known water storage changes during the infiltration experiment. It was concluded that the combined use of borehole and surface ground penetrating radar data convincingly revealed spatiotemporal soil water content variation during infiltration. In addition, this setup allowed a better quantification of water storage, which is a prerequisite for future applications, where, for example, the soil hydraulic properties will be estimated from ground penetrating radar data.
    Keywords: 550.724 ; Ground-penetrating radar ; Hydrogeophysics ; Data processing
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    The Structure of Climate Variability Across Scales (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: Abstract One of the most intriguing facets of the climate system is that it exhibits variability across all temporal and spatial scales; pronounced examples are temperature and precipitation. The structure of this variability, however, is not arbitrary. Over certain spatial and temporal ranges, it can be described by scaling relationships in the form of power laws in probability density distributions and autocorrelation functions. These scaling relationships can be quantified by scaling exponents which measure how the variability changes across scales and how the intensity changes with frequency of occurrence. Scaling determines the relative magnitudes and persistence of natural climate fluctuations. Here, we review various scaling mechanisms and their relevance for the climate system. We show observational evidence of scaling and discuss the application of scaling properties and methods in trend detection, climate sensitivity analyses, and climate prediction.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; scaling ; climate variability ; memory ; scaling mechanisms ; paleoclimate ; power law
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Variability of the Indian Monsoon in the Andaman Sea Across the Miocene-Pliocene Transition (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: We reconstructed the variability of the Earth's strongest hydrological system, the Indian monsoon, over the interval 6.24 to 4.91 Ma at International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 353 Site U1448 in the Andaman Sea. We integrated high-resolution benthic and planktic foraminiferal carbon and oxygen isotopes with Mg/Ca measurements of the mixed layer foraminifer Trilobatus sacculifer to reconstruct the isotopic composition of seawater (δ18Osw) and the gradient between planktic and benthic foraminiferal δ13C. A prominent increase in mixed layer temperatures of ~4°C occurred between 5.55 and 5.28 Ma, accompanied by a change from precession- to obliquity-driven variability in planktic δ18O and δ18Osw. We suggest that an intensified cross-equatorial transport of heat and moisture, paced by obliquity, led to increased summer monsoon precipitation during warm stages after 5.55 Ma. Transient cold stages were characterized by reduced mixed layer temperatures and summer monsoon failure, thus resembling late Pleistocene stadials. In contrast, an overall cooler background climate state with a strengthened biological pump prevailed prior to 5.55 Ma. These findings highlight the importance of internal feedback processes for the long-term evolution of the Indian monsoon.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; Indian monsoon ; Miocene-Pliocene transition ; Bay of Bengal ; Mg/Ca paleothermometry ; stable isotopes ; orbital forcing
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  • 10
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    Characterization of differential throughfall drop size distributions beneath European beech and Norway spruce (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: Forest canopies present irregular surfaces that alter both the quantity and spatiotemporal variability of precipitation inputs. The drop size distribution (DSD) of rainfall varies with rainfall event characteristics and is altered substantially by the forest stand properties. Yet, the influence of two major European tree species, European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. karst), on throughfall DSD is largely unknown. In order to assess the impact of these two species with differing canopy structures on throughfall DSD, two optical disdrometers, one above and one below the canopy of each European beech and Norway spruce, measured DSD of both incident rainfall and throughfall over 2 months at a 10-s resolution. Fractions of different throughfall categories were analysed for single-precipitation events of different intensities. While penetrating the canopies, clear shifts in drop size and temporal distributions of incoming rainfall were observed. Beech and spruce, however, had different DSD, behaved differently in their effect on diameter volume percentiles as well as width of drop spectrum. The maximum drop sizes under beech were higher than under spruce. The mean ± standard deviation of the median volume drops size (D50) over all rain events was 2.7 ± 0.28 mm for beech and 0.80 ± 0.04 mm for spruce, respectively. In general, there was a high-DSD variability within events indicating varying amounts of the different throughfall fractions. These findings help to better understand the effects of different tree species on rainfall partitioning processes and small-scale variations in subcanopy rainfall inputs, thereby demonstrating the need for further research in high-resolution spatial and temporal properties of rainfall and throughfall.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; canopy drip ; canopy interaction ; disdrometer ; droplets ; interception ; rain intensity ; rain rate ; splash droplets
    Language: English
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  • 11
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    Insolation and Greenhouse Gas Forcing of the South American Monsoon System Across Three Glacial-Interglacial Cycles (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: Precipitation extremes with devastating socioeconomic consequences within the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) are expected to become more frequent in the near future. The complexity in SAMS behavior, however, poses severe challenges for reliable future projections. Thus, robust paleomonsoon records are needed to constrain the high spatiotemporal variability in the response of SAMS rainfall to different climatic drivers. This study uses Ti/Ca ratios from X-ray fluorescence scanning of a sediment core retrieved off eastern Brazilian to trace precipitation changes over the past 322 Kyr. The results indicate that despite the spatiotemporal complexity of the SAMS, insolation forcing is the primary pacemaker of variations in the monsoonal system. Additional modulation by atmospheric pCO2 suggests that SAMS intensity over eastern Brazil will be suppressed by rising CO2 emissions in the future. Lastly, our record reveals an unprecedented strong and persistent wet period during Marine Isotope Stage 6 driven by anomalously strong trade winds.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; South American Monsoon System (SAMS)
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  • 12
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    Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-15
    Description: Winter chill is expected to decrease in many of the suitable growing regions for deciduous trees. Argentinean North Patagonia hosts extensive fruit tree cultivation, which provides an important contribution to both local and global food security. Using historic records from 11 weather stations from North Patagonia, we evaluate the possible impacts of climate change on fruit tree cultivation. We assess winter chill and seasonal heat availability, and the risk of spring frost events based on outputs from 15 Global Climate Models (GCMs) for two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and two future time periods (represented by central years 2050 and 2085). Metrics were estimated for 47 years of records from the weather stations, as well as typical conditions for 10 past scenarios and 60 future GCM and RCP projections. Scenarios consisted of 100 plausible annual temperature records produced by a weather generator. Results suggest that fruit tree dormancy in Argentinean North Patagonia will not be strongly affected by climate change. Compared to the past, winter chill may only decrease by 9% in the RCP4.5 scenario by 2050 in the northeastern and eastern subregion, while in the central-south and west the reduction seems unlikely to exceed 6% by the same RCP scenario and year. Our models project stable high growing season heat in the northeastern and eastern regions, and major increases in the south by 2085 in both RCP scenarios. Projections of spring frost events varied between 0 and about 25 hours below 0°C depending on the site. Increasing heat availability may create opportunities for fruit and nut growers to introduce new species and cultivars to the region. Our results provide a basis for planning such introductions and for enabling growers to exploit new opportunities for producing temperate orchard crops beyond their traditional ranges.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; chill models ; chill requirement ; heat requirement ; Prunus sp. ; spring frost risk ; temperate trees ; warm winters
    Language: English
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  • 13
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    Potential for Early Forecast of Moroccan Wheat Yields Based on Climatic Drivers (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-27
    Description: Wheat production plays an important role in Morocco. Current wheat forecast systems use weather and vegetation data during the crop growing phase, thus limiting the earliest possible release date to early spring. However, Morocco's wheat production is mostly rainfed and thus strongly tied to fluctuations in rainfall, which in turn depend on slowly evolving climate dynamics. This offers a source of predictability at longer time scales. Using physically guided causal discovery algorithms, we extract climate precursors for wheat yield variability from gridded fields of geopotential height and sea surface temperatures which show potential for accurate yield forecasts already in December, with around 50% explained variance in an out-of-sample cross validation. The detected interactions are physically meaningful and consistent with documented ocean-atmosphere feedbacks. Reliable yield forecasts at such long lead times could provide farmers and policy makers with necessary information for early action and strategic adaptation measurements to support food security.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; causal discovery algorithms ; teleconnections ; seasonal forecast ; machine learning ; wheat forecast ; climate precursors
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  • 14
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    Estimating near-surface air temperature across Israel using a machine learning based hybrid approach (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-27
    Description: Rising global temperatures over the last decades have increased heat exposure among populations worldwide. An accurate estimate of the resulting impacts on human health demands temporally explicit and spatially resolved monitoring of near-surface air temperature (Ta). Neither ground-based nor satellite-borne observations can achieve this individually, but the combination of the two provides synergistic opportunities. In this study, we propose a two-stage machine learning-based hybrid model to estimate 1 × 1 km2 gridded intra-daily Ta from surface skin temperature (Ts) across the complex terrain of Israel during 2004–2016. We first applied a random forest (RF) regression model to impute missing Ts from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua and Terra satellites, integrating Ts from the geostationary Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) satellite and synoptic variables from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' (ECMWF) ERA5 reanalysis data sets. The imputed Ts are in turn fed into the Stage 2 RF-based model to estimate Ta at the satellite overpass hours of each day. We evaluated the model's performance applying out-of-sample fivefold cross validation. Both stages of the hybrid model perform very well with out-of-sample fivefold cross validated R2 of 0.99 and 0.96, MAE of 0.42°C and 1.12°C, and RMSE of 0.65°C and 1.58°C (Stage 1: imputation of Ts, and Stage 2: estimation of Ta from Ts, respectively). The newly proposed model provides excellent computationally efficient estimation of near-surface air temperature at high resolution in both space and time, which helps further minimize exposure misclassification in epidemiological studies.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; air temperature ; health 〈 6. application/context ; health exposure ; MODIS ; random forest ; remote sensing 〈 1. tools and methods ; statistical methods 〈 1. tools and methods ; surface skin temperature
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  • 15
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    Broad Consistency Between Observed and Simulated Trends in Sea Surface Temperature Patterns (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-27
    Description: Using seven single-model ensembles and the two multimodel ensembles CMIP5 and CMIP6, we show that observed and simulated trends in sea surface temperature (SST) patterns are globally consistent when accounting for internal variability. Some individual ensemble members simulate trends in large-scale SST patterns that closely resemble the observed ones. Observed regional trends that lie at the outer edge of the models' internal variability range allow two nonexclusive interpretations: (a) Observed trends are unusual realizations of the Earth's possible behavior and/or (b) the models are systematically biased but large internal variability leads to some good matches with the observations. The existing range of multidecadal SST trends is influenced more strongly by large internal variability than by differences in the model formulation or the observational data sets.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; sea surface temperature patterns ; internal variability ; global climate models ; large ensembles ; model evaluation
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  • 16
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    “Surface,” “satellite” or “simulation”: Mapping intra-urban microclimate variability in a desert city (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-11-01
    Description: Mapping spatial and temporal variability of urban microclimate is pivotal for an accurate estimation of the ever-increasing exposure of urbanized humanity to global warming. This particularly concerns cities in arid/semi-arid regions which cover two fifths of the global land area and are home to more than one third of the world's population. Focusing on the desert city of Be'er Sheva Israel, we investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of urban–rural and intra-urban temperature variability by means of satellite observation, vehicular traverse measurement, and computer simulation. Our study reveals a well-developed nocturnal canopy layer urban heat island in Be'er Sheva, particularly in the winter, but a weak diurnal cool island in the mid-morning. Near surface air temperature exhibits weak urban–rural and intra-urban differences during the daytime (〈1°C), despite pronounced urban surface cool islands observed in satellite images. This phenomenon, also recorded in some other desert cities, is explained by the rapid increase in surface skin temperature of exposed desert soils (in the absence of vegetation or moisture) after sunrise, while urban surfaces are heated more slowly. The study highlights differences among the three methods used for describing urban temperature variability, each of which may have different applications in fields such as urban planning, climate change mitigation, and epidemiological research.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; Israel ; desert city ; urban microclimate ; mapping methods
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  • 17
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    Central uplift collapse in acoustically fluidized granular targets: Insights from analog modeling (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-12
    Description: Depending on their sizes, impact craters have either simple or complex geometries. Peak-ring craters such as the Chicxulub impact structure possess a single interior ring of peaks and hills and a flat interior floor. The exact mechanisms leading to the formation of a morphological peak-ring are still a matter of debate. In this study, analog modeling was used to study the flow field of a collapsing central uplift. A 3-D-printed cast was used to bring the analog material in the shape of an overheightened central uplift that was based on numerical modeling. The cast was then quickly removed and the central peak collapsed, forming a flattened broad mound that spread out onto the annular moat of the crater cavity. A subwoofer was used to fluidize the granular target material. The kinematics of the collapse were analyzed with the aid of particle image velocimetry, revealing a downward and outward collapse of the central uplift. This mode of collapse is partly in agreement with numerical models, in particular for the initial and middle phases. The overthrusting of the collapsing central peak onto the inward moving crater floor predicted by numerical modeling was observed, though to a lesser degree. A peak-ring, however, could not be reproduced since the collapse came to a halt before the central peak was completely leveled. Nevertheless, the method provides qualitative insights into the kinematics of collapse phenomena. This experimental study provides independent support of the theory of acoustic fluidization, in addition to numerical simulations.
    Keywords: 550.724 ; 551.397 ; impact craters ; morphological peak-rings ; analog modeling
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  • 18
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    How Dynamic Boundary Conditions Induce Solute Trapping and Quasi-stagnant Zones in Laboratory Experiments Comprising Unsaturated Heterogeneous Porous Media (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-12
    Description: The vadose zone is subject to dynamic boundary conditions in the form of infiltration and evaporation. A better understanding of implications for flow and solute transport, arising from these dynamic boundary conditions in combination with heterogeneous structure, will help to improve the prediction of the fate of solutes. We present laboratory experiments and numerical simulations of heterogeneous porous media under unsaturated conditions where controlled, temporally varying precipitation and evaporation are applied to study the effect of dynamic boundary conditions on solute transport in the presence of material interfaces. Dye tracers Eosine Y and Brilliant Blue FCF are utilized to visualize solute transport and analyze redistribution processes in a flow cell. Water and solute fluxes in and out of the flow cell are quantified. While in dynamic experiments application of small infiltration rates (significantly below the saturated hydraulic conductivities of the materials) led to a reversal of transport paths between infiltration and succeeding evaporation, larger infiltration rates altered downward transport such that flow and transport paths differed from those observed during evaporation. Differences in transport paths ultimately led to a redistribution and trapping of solute in one material which manifested as pronounced tailing in breakthrough curves. Trapping was induced not by the formation of a stagnant zone as result of large parameter contrast but by an interplay of dynamic boundary conditions and material heterogeneity. This study thereby highlights the importance to consider dynamic boundary conditions in predictions of solute leaching.
    Keywords: 550.724 ; laboratory experiment ; unsaturated porous media ; conservative solute transport ; dynamic boundary conditions
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  • 19
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    The influence of DACCIWA radiosonde data on the quality of ECMWF analyses and forecasts over southern West Africa (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-12
    Description: During the DACCIWA (Dynamics–Aerosol–Chemistry–Cloud Interactions in West Africa) field campaign ∼900 radiosondes were launched from 12 stations in southern West Africa from 15 June to 31 July 2016. Subsequently, data-denial experiments were conducted using the Integrated Forecasting System of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to assess the radiosondes' impact on the quality of analyses and forecasts. As observational reference, satellite-based estimates of rainfall and outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) as well as the radiosonde measurements themselves are used. With regard to the analyses, the additional observations show positive impacts on winds throughout the troposphere and lower stratosphere, while large lower-tropospheric cold and dry biases are hardly reduced. Nonetheless, downstream, that is farther inland from the radiosonde stations, we find a significant increase (decrease) in low-level night-time temperatures (monsoon winds) when incorporating the DACCIWA observations, suggesting a possible linkage via weaker cold air advection from the Gulf of Guinea. The associated lower relative humidity leads to reduced cloud cover in the DACCIWA analysis. Closer to the coast and over Benin and Togo, DACCIWA observations increase low-level specific humidity and precipitable water, possibly due to changes in advection and vertical mixing. During daytime, differences between the two analyses are generally smaller at low levels. With regard to the forecasts, the impact of the additional observations is lost after a day or less. Moderate improvements occur in low-level wind and temperature but also in rainfall over the downstream Sahel, while impacts on OLR are ambiguous. The changes in precipitation appear to also affect high-level cloud cover and the tropical easterly jet. The overall rather small observation impact suggests that model and data assimilation deficits are the main limiting factors for better forecasts in West Africa. The new observations and physical understanding from DACCIWA can hopefully contribute to reducing these issues.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; data-denial experiment ; field campaign ; radiosonde measurements ; West African monsoon
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  • 20
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    Investigation of the temporal variability of thunderstorms in central and western Europe and the relation to large-scale flow and teleconnection patterns (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-12
    Description: The driving factors that influence the spatial and annual variability of thunderstorms across Europe are still poorly understood. Due to a lack of long-term, reliable and consistent information about the occurrence of convective storms, a weather type classification has been developed that estimates thunderstorm probability from a combination of appropriate meteorological quantities on the mesoscale. Based on this approach, the temporal and spatial variability of convection-favouring environments is investigated between 1958 and 2014 using a high-resolution reanalysis dataset. To identify potential drivers for convective days, typical upper-level flow patterns were deduced using a multivariate approach. Our results suggest a strong link between local-scale thunderstorm activity and large-scale flow and air mass properties, such as stability, moisture, or vertical lifting. For example, while all over central Europe the most prominent pattern is given by a southwesterly flow type over the respective area, distinct regional discrepancies regarding further favourable flow types are observed. The crucial role of large-scale flow is further studied by assessing the relation between Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns and widespread convective activity. It is found that positive phases of the East Atlantic or Scandinavian patterns go along with a significant enhancement of convection-favouring conditions in several European regions, which can be explained by anomalies in the large-scale temperature and flow fields. Sea-surface temperature over the Bay of Biscay likewise impacts the convective environment, with the largest positive effect over the western part of the study area.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; East Atlantic pattern ; large-scale flow ; NAO ; North Atlantic Oscillation ; SCAND ; Scandinavian pattern ; teleconnection patterns ; thunderstorms ; weather classification schemes
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    Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimated by Equilibrating Climate Models (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-12
    Description: The methods to quantify equilibrium climate sensitivity are still debated. We collect millennial-length simulations of coupled climate models and show that the global mean equilibrium warming is higher than those obtained using extrapolation methods from shorter simulations. Specifically, 27 simulations with 15 climate models forced with a range of CO2 concentrations show a median 17% larger equilibrium warming than estimated from the first 150 years of the simulations. The spatial patterns of radiative feedbacks change continuously, in most regions reducing their tendency to stabilizing the climate. In the equatorial Pacific, however, feedbacks become more stabilizing with time. The global feedback evolution is initially dominated by the tropics, with eventual substantial contributions from the mid-latitudes. Time-dependent feedbacks underscore the need of a measure of climate sensitivity that accounts for the degree of equilibration, so that models, observations, and paleo proxies can be adequately compared and aggregated to estimate future warming.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; equilibrium climate sensitivity ; climate models
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    Electrification of Experimental Volcanic Jets with Varying Water Content and Temperature (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-12
    Description: Volcanic lightning—a near ubiquitous feature of explosive volcanic eruptions—possesses great potential for the analysis of volcanic plume dynamics. To date, the lack of quantitative knowledge on the relationships between plume characteristics hinders efficient data analysis and application of the resulting parameterizations. We use a shock-tube apparatus for rapid decompression experiments to produce particle-laden jets. We have systematically and independently varied the water content (0–27 wt%) and the temperature (25–320 °C) of the particle-gas mixture. The addition of a few weight percent of water is sufficient to reduce the observed electrification by an order of magnitude. With increasing temperature, a larger number of smaller discharges are observed, with the overall amount of electrification staying similar. Changes in jet dynamics are proposed as the cause of the temperature-dependence, while multiple factors (including the higher conductivity of wet ash) can be seen responsible for the decreased electrification in wet experiments.
    Keywords: 550.724 ; volcanic lightning ; atmospheric electricity ; Faraday cage ; volcanic jets ; temperature ; water content
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    The observed recent surface air temperature development across Svalbard and concurring footprints in local sea ice cover (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-12
    Description: The Svalbard archipelago in the Arctic North Atlantic is experiencing rapid changes in the surface climate and sea ice distribution, with impacts for the coupled climate system and the local society. This study utilizes observational data of surface air temperature (SAT) from 1980–2016 across the whole Svalbard archipelago, and sea ice extent (SIE) from operational sea ice charts to conduct a systematic assessment of climatologies, long-term changes and regional differences. The proximity to the warm water mass of the West Spitsbergen Current drives a markedly warmer climate in the western coastal regions compared to northern and eastern Svalbard. This imprints on the SIE climatology in southern and western Svalbard, where the annual maxima of 50–60% area ice coverage are substantially less than 80–90% in the northern and eastern fjords. Owing to winter-amplified warming, the local climate is shifting towards more maritime conditions, and SIE reductions of between 5 and 20% per decade in particular regions are found, such that a number of fjords in the west have been virtually ice-free in recent winters. The strongest decline comes along with SAT forcing and occurs over the most recent 1–2 decades in all regions; while in the 1980s and 1990s, enhanced northerly winds and sea ice drift can explain 30–50% of SIE variability around northern Svalbard, where they had correspondingly lead to a SIE increase. With an ongoing warming it is suggested that both the meteorological and cryospheric conditions in eastern Svalbard will become increasingly similar to what is already observed in the western fjords, namely suppressed typical Arctic climate conditions.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; Arctic warming ; climatology ; observations ; sea ice ; surface meteorology ; Svalbard
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    Compact Operational Tropospheric Water Vapor and Temperature Raman Lidar with Turbulence Resolution (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-12
    Description: We present the new Atmospheric Raman Temperature and Humidity Sounder (ARTHUS). We demonstrate that ARTHUS measurements resolve (1) the strength of the inversion layer at the planetary boundary layer top, (2) elevated lids in the free troposphere during daytime and nighttime, and (3) turbulent fluctuations in water vapor and temperature, simultaneously, also during daytime. Very stable and reliable performance was demonstrably achieved during more than 2,500 hr of operations time experiencing a huge variety of weather conditions. ARTHUS provides temperature profiles with resolutions of 10–60 s and 7.5–100 m vertically in the lower free troposphere. During daytime, the statistical uncertainty of the water vapor mixing ratio is 〈2 % in the lower troposphere for resolutions of 5 min and 100 m. Temperature statistical uncertainty is 〈0.5 K even up to the middle troposphere. ARTHUS fulfills the stringent WMO breakthrough requirements on nowcasting and very short range forecasting.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; Water-Vapor and Temperature Raman lidar ; Atmospheric Boundary Layer ; Thermodynamic Profiler ; Turbulence ; Temperature inversion layers
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    Using seasonal rainfall clusters to explain the interannual variability of the rain belt over the Greater Horn of Africa (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-12
    Description: The seasonal cycle of rainfall over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) is dominated by the latitudinal migration and activity of the tropical rain belt (TRB). The TRB exhibits high interannual variability in the GHA and the reasons for the recent dry period in the Long Rains (March–May) are poorly understood. In addition, few studies have addressed the rainfall fluctuations during the Msimu Rains (Dec.–Mar.) in the southern GHA region. Interannual variations of the seasonal cycle of the TRB between 1981 and 2018 were analysed using two statistical indices. The Rainfall Cluster Index (RCI) describes the seasonal cycle as a succession of six characteristic rainfall patterns, while the Seasonal Location Index (SLI) captures the latitudinal location of the TRB. The SLI and RCI depict the full seasonal cycle of the TRB supporting interpretations of the interannual variations and trends. The Msimu Rains are dominated by two clusters with opposite rainfall characteristics between the Congo Basin and Tanzania. The associated anomalies in moisture flux and divergence indicate variations in the location of the TRB originating from an interplay between low-level air flows from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans and tropical and subtropical teleconnections. The peak period of the Long Rains shows a complex composition of five clusters, which is tightly connected to intraseasonal and interannual variability of latitudinal locations of the TRB. A persistent location of the TRB near the equator, evidenced in a frequent occurrence of a cluster related to an anomalously weak Walker circulation, is associated with wet conditions over East Africa. Dry Long Rains are associated with strong and frequent latitudinal variations of the TRB position with a late onset and intermittent rainfall. These results offer new opportunities to understand recent variability and trends in the GHA region.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; Greater Horn of Africa ; seasonal cycle of rainfall ; ropical rain belt ; interannual variability
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    Evaporation Study Based on Micromodel Experiments: Comparison of Theory and Experiment (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-11
    Description: Abstract Evaporation—a key process for water exchange between soil and atmosphere—is controlled by internal water fluxes and surface vapor fluxes. Recent studies demonstrated that the dynamics of the water flow in corners determine the time behavior of the evaporation rate. The internal water flux of the porous media is often described by capillary flow assuming complete wetting. Particularly, the crucial influence of partial wetting, that is, the nonlinear contact angle dependency of the capillary flow has been neglected so far. The focus of the paper is to demonstrate that SiO2-surfaces can exhibit contact angles of about 40°. This reduces the internal capillary flow by 1 order of magnitude compared to complete wetting. First, we derived the contact angle by inverse modeling. We conducted a series of evaporation experiments in a 2-D square lattice microstructure connected by lognormal distributed throats. We used an explicit analytical power series solution of the single square capillary model. A contact angle of 38° ± 1° was derived. Second, we directly measured the contact angle of the Si-SiO2 wafer using the Drop Shape Analyzer Krüss 100 and obtained an averaged contact angle of 42° ± 2°. The results support the single square capillary model as an appropriate model for the description of the evaporation process in an ideal square capillary.
    Keywords: 550.724 ; 551.5 ; evaporation ; experiments
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    The Impact of Wettability and Surface Roughness on Fluid Displacement and Capillary Trapping in 2-D and 3-D Porous Media: 2. Combined Effect of Wettability, Surface Roughness, and Pore Space Structure on Trapping Efficiency in Sand Packs and Micromodels (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-10-13
    Description: A comprehensive understanding of the combined effects of surface roughness and wettability on the dynamics of the trapping process is lacking. This can be primarily attributed to the contradictory experimental and numerical results regarding the impact of wettability on the capillary trapping efficiency. The discrepancy is presumably caused by the surface roughness of the inner pore-solid interface. Herein, we present a comparative μ-CT study of the static fluid-fluid pattern in porous media with smooth (glass beads) and rough surfaces (natural sands). For the first time, a global optimization method was applied to map the characteristic geometrical and morphological properties of natural sands to 2-D micromodels that exhibit different degrees of surface roughness. A realistic wetting model that describes the apparent contact angle of the rough surface as a function surface morphology and the intrinsic contact angle was also proposed. The dynamics of the trapping processes were studied via visualization micromodel experiments. Our results revealed that sand and glass beads displayed opposite trends in terms of the contact angle dependence between 5° and 115°. Sand depicted a nonmonotonous functional contact angle dependency, that is, a transition from maximal trapping to no trapping, followed by an increase to medium trapping. In contrast, glass beads showed a sharp transition from no trapping to maximal trapping. Since both porous media exhibit similar morphological properties (similar Minkowski functions: porosity, surface density, mean curvature density, Euler number density), we deduce that this difference in behavior is caused by the difference in surface roughness that allows complete wetting and hence precursor thick-film flow for natural sands. Experimental results on micromodels verified this hypothesis.
    Keywords: 550.724 ; impact of wettability on trapping efficiency ; impact of surface roughness and pore space structure on trapping efficiency ; porous media with rough surface ; natural sand and glass ceramic micromodels ; wettability-controlled crossover from snap-off to bypass trapping ; spontaneous precursor thick-film flow (Wenzel's argument)
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    Leaching of hexavalent chromium from young chromite ore processing residue (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-13
    Description: Chromite ore processing residue (COPR) is a waste derived from the chromate extraction from roasted ores and is deposited in some countries in landfills. The objective of this study was to investigate the leaching characteristics of hexavalent Cr [Cr(VI)] from two COPR samples obtained from unlined landfills in the Kanpur area of northern India. Column experiments were conducted under water-saturated conditions to simulate Cr release from the wastes caused by tropical heavy-rain events. Leached Cr(VI) decreased from 1,800 to 300 mg L−1 (Rania site) and 1,200 to 163 mg L−1 (Chhiwali site) during exchange of 12 pore volumes, which approximately corresponds to 2 yr of monsoon precipitation. Flow interruptions for 10, 100, and 1,000 h had little effect on Cr(VI) concentrations in the leachate, suggesting that Cr(VI) leaching was not limited by slow release kinetics. Calcium aluminum chromium oxide hydrates (CAC), and highly soluble phases such as Na2CrO4 may play a role in controlling Cr(VI) concentration in the leachates. The amount of Cr(VI) leached from the columns accounted for 16% of the total Cr(VI) present in both COPR samples. A decrease in the solid-phase Cr(VI)/Crtotal ratio along the column was identified by X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy. Consistently, the smallest Cr(VI)/Crtotal ratios were found in the lower column section closest to the inflow. Our results suggest that Cr(VI) leaching from the unlined COPR landfills will continue for centuries, highlighting the urgent need to remediate these dumpsites.
    Keywords: 577.275 ; 550.724 ; Northern India ; chromite ore processing residue ; leaching ; experiments
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    Climate Change Feedbacks in Aquaplanet Experiments With Explicit and Parametrized Convection for Horizontal Resolutions of 2,525 Up to 5 km (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-13
    Description: Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is the long-term response to doubled atmospheric CO2 and likely between 1.5 and 4.5 K. Conventional general circulation models do not convincingly narrow down this range, and newly developed nonhydrostatic models with relatively fine horizontal resolutions of a few kilometers have thus far delivered diverse results. Here we use the nonhydrostatic ICON model with the physics package normally used for climate simulations at resolutions as fine as 5 km to study the response to a uniform surface warming in an aquaplanet configuration. We apply the model in two setups: one with convection parametrization employed and one with explicit convection. ICON exhibits a negative total feedback independent of convective representation, thus providing a stable climate with an ECS comparable to other general circulation models, though three interesting new results are found. First, ECS varies little across resolution for both setups but runs with explicit convection have systematically lower ECS than the parametrized case, mainly due to more negative tropical clear-sky longwave feedbacks. These are a consequence of a drier mean state of about 6% relative humidity for explicit convection and less midtropospheric moistening with global warming. Second, shortwave feedbacks switch from positive to negative with increasing resolution, originating foremost in the tropics and high latitudes. Third, the model shows no discernible high cloud area feedback (iris effect) in any configuration. It is possible that ICON's climate model parametrizations applied here are less appropriate for cloud resolving scales, and therefore, ongoing developments aim at implementing a more advanced prognostic cloud microphysics scheme.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; ICON ; climate change feedbacks ; aquaplanet ; high resolution ; explicit convection ; ECS
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    Transport and Retention of Sulfidized Silver Nanoparticles in Porous Media: The Role of Air-Water Interfaces, Flow Velocity, and Natural Organic Matter (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-13
    Description: The sulfidation and aging of silver nanoparticles (Ag-NPs) with natural organic matter (NOM) are major transformation processes along their pathway in wastewater treatment plants and surface waters. Although soils appear to be a sink for disposed Ag-NPs, the impact of variable saturation on the transport and retention behavior in porous media is still not fully understood. We studied the behavior of sulfidized silver nanoparticles (S-Ag-NPs, 1 mg L−1) in saturated and unsaturated sand columns regarding the effects of (i) the presence of NOM (5 mg L−1) in the aquatic phase on retention, transport, and remobilization of S-Ag-NPs and (ii) the distribution and quantity of air-water and solid-water interfaces for different flow velocities determined via X-ray microtomography (X-ray μCT). Unsaturated transport experiments were conducted under controlled conditions with unit gradients in water potential and constant water content along the flow direction for each applied flux. It was shown that (i) NOM in S-Ag-NP dispersion highly increased the NP-mobility; (ii) differences between saturated and unsaturated transport were increasing with decreasing flux and, consequently, decreasing water contents; (iii) both, solid-water and air-water interfaces were involved in retention of S-Ag-NPs aged by NOM. Using numerical model simulations and X-ray μCT of flow experiments, the breakthrough of Ag-NP could be explained by a disproportional increase in air-water interfaces and an increasing attachment efficiency with decreasing water content and flow velocity.
    Keywords: 577.275 ; 550.724 ; silver nanoparticles ; X-ray tomography ; phase distribution ; air-water interface ; natural organic matter ; transport
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    The Impact of Wettability and Surface Roughness on Fluid Displacement and Capillary Trapping in 2-D and 3-D Porous Media: 1. Wettability-Controlled Phase Transition of Trapping Efficiency in Glass Beads Packs (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-13
    Description: Fluid invasion, displacement of one fluid by another in porous media, is important in a large number of industrial and natural processes. Of special interest is the trapping of gas and oil clusters. We study the impact of wettability on fluid pattern formation and capillary trapping in three-dimensional glass beads packs (dmean = 1 mm) during fluid invasion at capillary numbers of 10−7 using μ-CT. The invading fluid was water, and the defending fluid was air. The contact angle of the glass beads was altered between 5° and 115° using Piranha cleaning and silanization. We analyzed the front morphology of the invading fluid, the residual gas saturation, the fluid occupation frequency of pores, and the morphology and statistics of the trapped gas clusters. We found a sharp transition (crossover) at a critical contact angle θc = 96°. Below θc the morphology of the displacement front was flat and compact caused by the strong smoothing effect of cooperative filling. Above θc the morphology of the displacement front was fractal and ramified caused by single bursts (Haines jumps). Across this dynamical phase transition the trapping efficiency changes from no trapping to maximal trapping. For θ 〉 θc the experimental results show that invasion percolation governs the fluid displacement. Strong indicators are the universal scaling behavior of the size distribution of large clusters (relative data error εdata 〈 1%) and their linear surface-volume relationship (R2 = 0.99).
    Keywords: 550.724 ; percolation transition ; sharp transition (crossover) at a critical contact angle θc ; below θc, the displacement front was flat and compact ; above θc, the displacement front was fractal and ramified ; trapping efficiency changes from no trapping to maximal trapping ; trapped gas clusters show universal scaling law
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    Laboratory and field investigations on freeze and gravity core sampling and assessment of coring disturbances with implications on gas bubble characterization† (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-14
    Description: The quantification of greenhouse gas emissions from aquatic ecosystems requires knowledge about the spatial and temporal dynamics of free gas in sediments. Freezing the sediment in situ offers a promising method for obtaining gas-bearing sediment samples, unaffected by changes in hydrostatic pressure and sample temperature during core withdrawal and subsequent analysis. This article presents a novel freeze coring technique to preserve the in situ stratigraphy and gas bubble characteristics. Nondestructive X-ray computed tomography (CT) scans were used to identify and characterize coring disturbances of gravity and freeze cores associated with gassy sediment, as well as the effect of the freezing process on the gas bubble characteristics. Real-time X-ray CT scans were conducted to visualize the progression of the freezing process. Additional experiments were conducted to determine the freezing rate to assess the probability of sediment particle/bubble migration, and gas bubble nucleation at the phase transition of pore water to ice. The performance of the freeze coring technique was evaluated under field conditions in Olsberg and Urft Reservoir (Germany). The results demonstrate the capability of the freeze coring technique for the preservation of gas-bearing sediments and the analysis of gas bubble distribution pattern in both reservoirs. Nevertheless, the obtained cores showed that nearly all gravity and freeze cores show some degree of coring disturbances.
    Keywords: 550.724 ; gas-bearing sediments ; freeze coring technique
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    Effects of Topography and Realistic Drag on the Southern Hemisphere Midlatitude Jet in a Dry Model (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-14
    Description: Climate models have substantial biases in the climatological latitude of the Southern Hemisphere eddy-driven jet and the time scale of annular mode variability and disagree on the jet response to climate change. Zonally symmetric dry dynamical cores are often used for idealized modeling of the jet response to forcing and its sensitivity to model setup changes. The limits to which these models represent the key mechanisms that control the jet in complex models or the real world have not been systematically investigated. Here we show that substantial intermodel differences in jet latitude and strength can arise from differences in dynamical cores and resolved topography. Including topography and a more realistic surface drag in a dry model substantially alters the jet response to changes in drag strength. Using real-world maps, enhanced drag over land shifts the jet poleward, whereas enhanced drag over the ocean leads to an equatorward shift. No universal relationship between annular mode time scale and forced response emerges in the dry model with topography. These results suggest that zonally symmetric models with Rayleigh drag lack important mechanisms that control the behavior of the midlatitude jet in coupled climate models. A dry model with topography and quadratic surface drag can fill this gap in the model hierarchy.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; eddy-driven jet ; dynamical core ; drag ; idealized models ; topography
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    Ice Particle Properties Inferred From Aggregation Modelling (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-14
    Description: We generated a large number 105,000 of aggregates composed of various monomer types and sizes using an aggregation model. Combined with hydrodynamic theory, we derived ice particle properties such as mass, projected area, and terminal velocity as a function of monomer number and size. This particle ensemble allows us to study the relation of particle properties with a high level of detail which is often not provided by in situ measurements. The ice particle properties change rather smoothly with monomer number. We find very little differences in all particle properties between monomers and aggregates at sizes below 1 mm which is in contrast to many microphysics schemes. The impact of the monomer type on the particle properties decreases with increasing monomer number. Whether, for example, the terminal velocity of an aggregate is larger or smaller than an equal-size monomer depends mostly on the monomer type. We fitted commonly used power laws as well as Atlas-type relations, which represent the saturation of the terminal velocity at large sizes (terminal velocity asymptotically approaching a limiting value) to the data set and tested the impact of incorporating different levels of complexity with idealized simulations using a 1D Lagrangian super particle model. These simulations indicate that it is sufficient to represent the monomer number dependency of ice particle properties with only two categories (monomers and aggregates). The incorporation of the saturation velocity at larger sizes is found to be important to avoid an overestimation of self-aggregation of larger snowflakes.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; 550.724 ; agreggation modeling ; cloud microphysics ; ice particle properties ; Lagrangian modeling ; terminal velocity
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    Comment on “A New One-Equation Model of Fluid Drag for Irregularly Shaped Particles Valid Over a Wide Range of Reynolds Number” by F. Dioguardi et al. (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-14
    Description: With this comment we want to clarify a number of aspects of the paper recently published by Dioguardi, Mele, and Dellino “A New One-Equation Model of Fluid Drag for Irregularly Shaped Particles Valid Over a Wide Range of Reynolds Number” (hereafter referred to as DMD2018). In particular, we show that contrary to the conclusions of DMD2018, the model of Bagheri and Bonadonna (2016, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.powtec.2016.06.015), hereafter referred to as BB2016, is the best model in predicting the drag and terminal velocity of particles measured by DMD2018, as demonstrated here by comparison of estimation errors. The discrepancy is mainly due to a production error (misplaced parentheses) introduced in BB2016 during the publication process and partly due to the incorrect methodology used by DMD2018 to calculate particle terminal velocity. Here we present the correct sets of equations and methodology to show that typo-free model of BB2016 outperforms all existing drag models including the new model suggested by DMD2018.
    Keywords: 550.724 ; drag coefficient ; terminal velocity ; particle shape ; non-spherical ; irregular
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    Lithic artifact assemblage transport and microwear modification in a fluvial setting: A radio frequency identification tag experiment (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-14
    Description: River processes are widely assumed to have impacted the integrity of lithic assemblages when artifacts are found in fluvial sediments, but the specifics of these influences remain largely unknown. We conducted a real-world experiment to determine how the initial stages of fluvial entrainment affected lithic artifact assemblages. We inserted replica artifacts with radio frequency identification tags into a gravel-bedded river in Wales (UK) for seven months and related their transport distances to their morphology and the recorded streamflow. In addition, nine artifacts were recovered at the end of the experiment and analyzed for microwear traces. In sum, our results show that in a gravel-bedded river with a mean discharge of 5.1 m3/s, artifact length and width were the main variables influencing artifact transport distances. The experiment also resulted in characteristic microwear traces developing on the artifacts over distances of 485 m or less. These results emphasize the multifaceted nature of alluvial site formation processes in a repeatable experiment and highlight new ways to identify the transport of replica Paleolithic material.
    Keywords: 550.724 ; 551.35 ; experimental archaeology ; fluvial dynamics ; Paleolithic ; RFID ; taphonomy ; use-wear
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    Evaluation of precipitation datasets against local observations in southwestern Iran (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-14
    Description: This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of a great variety of state-of-the-art precipitation datasets against gauge observations over the Karun basin in southwestern Iran. In particular, we consider (a) gauge-interpolated datasets (GPCCv8, CRU TS4.01, PREC/L, and CPC-Unified), (b) multi-source products (PERSIANN-CDR, CHIRPS2.0, MSWEP V2, HydroGFD2.0, and SM2RAIN-CCI), and (c) reanalyses (ERA-Interim, ERA5, CFSR, and JRA-55). The spatiotemporal performance of each product is evaluated against monthly precipitation observations from 155 gauges distributed across the basin during the period 2000–2015. This way, we find that overall the GPCCv8 dataset agrees best with the measurements. Most datasets show significant underestimations, which are largest for the interpolated datasets. These underestimations are usually smallest at low altitudes and increase towards more mountainous areas, although there is large spread across the products. Interestingly, no overall performance difference can be found between precipitation datasets for which gauge observations from Karun basin were used, versus products that were derived without these measurements, except in the case of GPCCv8. In general, our findings highlight remarkable differences between state-of-the-art precipitation products over regions with comparatively sparse gauge density, such as Iran. Revealing the best-performing datasets and their remaining weaknesses, we provide guidance for monitoring and modelling applications which rely on high-quality precipitation input.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; evaluation ; interpolated dataset ; Karun basin ; precipitation datasets ; reanalysis dataset ; satellite rainfall estimate
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    Analysis of Compound Climate Extremes and Exposed Population in Africa Under Two Different Emission Scenarios (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-09-09
    Description: It is well established that Africa is particularly exposed to climate extremes including heat waves, droughts, and intense rainfall events. How exposed Africa is to the co-occurrence of these events is however virtually unknown. This study provides the first analysis of projected changes in the co-occurrence of five such compound climate extremes in Africa, under a low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. These changes are combined with population projections for a low (SSP1) and high (SSP3) population growth scenario, in order to provide estimates of the number of people that may be exposed to such events at the end of the 21st century. We make use of an ensemble of regional climate projections from the Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORE) project embedded in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) framework. This ensemble comprises five different Earth System Model/Regional Climate Model (ESM/RCM) combinations with three different ESMs and two RCMs. We show that all five compound climate extremes will increase in frequency, with changes being greater under RCP8.5 than RCP2.6. Moreover, populations exposed to these changes are greater under RCP8.5/SSP3, than RCP2.6/SSP1, increasing by 47- and 12-fold, respectively, compared to the present-day. Regions of Africa that are particularly exposed are West Africa, Central-East Africa, and Northeast and Southeast Africa. Increased exposure is mainly driven by the interaction between climate and population growth, and the effect of population alone. This has important policy implications in relation to climate mitigation and adaptation.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; compound climate extremes ; population exposure ; regional climate change ; Africa ; CORDEX-CORE ; regional climate models
    Language: English
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    WeatherBench: A Benchmark Data Set for Data-Driven Weather Forecasting (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-09-24
    Description: Data-driven approaches, most prominently deep learning, have become powerful tools for prediction in many domains. A natural question to ask is whether data-driven methods could also be used to predict global weather patterns days in advance. First studies show promise but the lack of a common data set and evaluation metrics make intercomparison between studies difficult. Here we present a benchmark data set for data-driven medium-range weather forecasting (specifically 3–5 days), a topic of high scientific interest for atmospheric and computer scientists alike. We provide data derived from the ERA5 archive that has been processed to facilitate the use in machine learning models. We propose simple and clear evaluation metrics which will enable a direct comparison between different methods. Further, we provide baseline scores from simple linear regression techniques, deep learning models, as well as purely physical forecasting models. The data set is publicly available at https://github.com/pangeo-data/WeatherBench and the companion code is reproducible with tutorials for getting started. We hope that this data set will accelerate research in data-driven weather forecasting.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; machine learning ; NWP ; artificial intelligence ; benchmark
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    Analysis of future changes in meteorological drought patterns in Fulda, Germany (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-09-24
    Description: Meteorological droughts have large impacts on society and the environment. A better understanding and quantification of their occurrences can be highly relevant for the development of proper climate change mitigation, adaptation and resilience strategies. Here we examine meteorological droughts from observed data covering the 1971–2000 period for the Fulda catchment in Germany by means of the Standardized Precipitation Index. The joint dependency of drought duration and severity is modelled by a copula function, which relates their univariate distributions in a functional relationship. Recurrence intervals are further calculated as a function of the joint relationship and univariate marginals. Future projections are investigated in which downscaled EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Model (RCM) projections for the period 2021–2050 are used together with the three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, in order to analyse and compare future joint patterns of duration and severity of events. We find that drought duration and severity present a clear interdependency supporting the choice of a bivariate model. Results suggest substantial differences in the future joint relationship duration–severity. Depending on the RCM and RCP, drought patterns show different magnitude of changes in the future. The projected changes are different for the different returns periods. RCP8.5 shows more severe events and longer drought durations than RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. The uncertainties of the projected patterns also depend on the RCP and RCM and are larger for higher return periods.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; climate change ; copulas ; drought duration and severity ; drought events ; extremes ; Fulda catchment ; Standardized Precipitation Index
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    Weather regimes and analogues downscaling of seasonal precipitation for the 21st century: A case study over Israel (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-09-06
    Description: Abstract Global climate models provide only partial information on local-scale phenomenon, such as precipitation, primarily due to their coarse resolution. In this study, statistical downscaling algorithms, based on both weather regimes and past analogues, are operated for 18 Israeli rain gauges with an altitude ranging between −200 and ~1,000 m above sea level (ASL). To project seasonal precipitation over Israel and its hydrologic basins, the algorithms are applied to six Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models for the end of the 21st century, according to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The downscaled models can capture quite well the seasonal precipitation distribution, though with underestimation in winter and overestimation in spring. All models display a significant reduction of seasonal precipitation for the 21st century according to both scenarios. The winter reductions for the end of the century and the RCP8.5 scenario are found to be ~22 and ~37% according to the weather regimes and the analogues downscaling methods, respectively. Spring reductions are found to be ~10–20% larger than winter reductions. It is shown that the projected reduction results from a decrease in the frequency of the rain-bearing systems, as well as a decrease in the average daily precipitation intensity. The areas with the largest reductions in seasonal precipitation are found over the central mountains, the Mediterranean coastal area, and the Sea of Galilee hydrologic basins, which are the main fresh-water aquifers and reservoirs of Israel. The statistical downscaling methods applied in this study can be easily transferred to other regions where long-term data sets of observed precipitation are available. This study and others may serve as a basis for priority and policy setting toward better climate adaptation with associated uncertainties related to the methods used and nonstationary of the climate system.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; analogues downscaling ; climate change ; CMIP5 predictions ; Eastern Mediterranean ; seasonal precipitation ; synoptic classification ; weather regimes
    Language: English
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  • 42
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    Laboratory Study on Fluid-Induced Fault Slip Behavior: The Role of Fluid Pressurization Rate (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-06
    Description: Understanding the physical mechanisms governing fluid-induced fault slip is important for improved mitigation of seismic risks associated with large-scale fluid injection. We conducted fluid-induced fault slip experiments in the laboratory on critically stressed saw-cut sandstone samples with high permeability using different fluid pressurization rates. Our experimental results demonstrate that fault slip behavior is governed by fluid pressurization rate rather than injection pressure. Slow stick-slip episodes (peak slip velocity 〈 4 μm/s) are induced by fast fluid injection rate, whereas fault creep with slip velocity 〈 0.4 μm/s mainly occurs in response to slow fluid injection rate. Fluid-induced fault slip may remain mechanically stable for loading stiffness larger than fault stiffness. Independent of fault slip mode, we observed dynamic frictional weakening of the artificial fault at elevated pore pressure. Our observations highlight that varying fluid injection rates may assist in reducing potential seismic hazards of field-scale fluid injection projects.
    Keywords: 550.724 ; fault slip ; fluid injection ; induced seismicity ; fluid pressurization rate ; stick-slip ; fault creep
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  • 43
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    Controls on the lateral channel-migration rate of braided channel systems in coarse non-cohesive sediment (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-06
    Description: Lateral movements of alluvial river channels control the extent and reworking rates of alluvial fans, floodplains, deltas, and alluvial sections of bedrock rivers. These lateral movements can occur by gradual channel migration or by sudden changes in channel position (avulsions). Whereas models exist for rates of river avulsion, we lack a detailed understanding of the rates of lateral channel migration on the scale of a channel belt. In a two-step process, we develop here an expression for the lateral migration rate of braided channel systems in coarse, non-cohesive sediment. On the basis of photographic and topographic data from laboratory experiments of braided channels performed under constant external boundary conditions, we first explore the impact of autogenic variations of the channel-system geometry (i.e. channel-bank heights, water depths, channel-system width, and channel slope) on channel-migration rates. In agreement with theoretical expectations, we find that, under such constant boundary conditions, the laterally reworked volume of sediment is constant and lateral channel-migration rates scale inversely with the channel-bank height. Furthermore, when channel-bank heights are accounted for, lateral migration rates are independent of the remaining channel geometry parameters. These constraints allow us, in a second step, to derive two alternative expressions for lateral channel-migration rates under different boundary conditions using dimensional analysis. Fits of a compilation of laboratory experiments to these expressions suggest that, for a given channel bank-height, migration rates are strongly sensitive to water discharges and more weakly sensitive to sediment discharges. In addition, external perturbations, such as changes in sediment and water discharges or base level fall, can indirectly affect lateral channel-migration rates by modulating channel-bank heights. © 2019 The Author. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2019 The Author. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
    Keywords: 550.724 ; 551.35 ; braided alluvial rivers ; physical experiments ; channel migration
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  • 44
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    Velocity Field Estimation on Density-Driven Solute Transport With a Convolutional Neural Network (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-06
    Description: Recent advances in machine learning open new opportunities to gain deeper insight into hydrological systems, where some relevant system quantities remain difficult to measure. We use deep learning methods trained on numerical simulations of the physical processes to explore the possibilities of closing the information gap of missing system quantities. As an illustrative example we study the estimation of velocity fields in numerical and laboratory experiments of density-driven solute transport. Using high-resolution observations of the solute concentration distribution, we demonstrate the capability of the method to structurally incorporate the representation of the physical processes. Velocity field estimation for synthetic data for both variable and uniform concentration boundary conditions showed equal results. This capability is remarkable because only the latter was employed for training the network. Applying the method to measured concentration distributions of density-driven solute transport in a Hele-Shaw cell makes the velocity field assessable in the experiment. This assessability of the velocity field even holds for regions with negligible solute concentration between the density fingers, where the velocity field is otherwise inaccessible.
    Keywords: 550.724 ; Hele-Shaw cell experiment ; density-driven active solute transport ; convolutional neural network ; velocity field estimation
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  • 45
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    Sea Ice and Atmospheric Parameter Retrieval From Satellite Microwave Radiometers: Synergy of AMSR2 and SMOS Compared With the CIMR Candidate Mission (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-06
    Description: Research on improving the prediction skill of climate models requires refining the quality of observational data used for initializing and tuning the models. This is especially true in the polar regions where uncertainties about the interactions between sea ice, ocean, and atmosphere are driving ongoing monitoring efforts. The Copernicus Imaging Microwave Radiometer (CIMR) is an European Space Agency (ESA) candidate mission which promises to offer high resolution, low uncertainty observation capabilities at the 1.4, 6.9, 10.65, 18.7, and 36.5 GHz frequencies. To assess the potential impact of CIMR for sea ice parameter retrieval, a comparison is made between retrievals based on present AMSR2 observations and a retrieval using future CIMR equivalent observations over a data set of validated sea ice concentration (SIC) values. An optimal estimation retrieval method (OEM) is used which can use input from different channel combinations to retrieve seven geophysical parameters (sea ice concentration, multi-year ice fraction, ice surface temperature, columnar water vapor, liquid water path, over ocean wind speed, and sea surface temperature). An advantage of CIMR over existing radiometers is that it would provide higher spatial resolution observations at the lower frequency channels (6.9, 10.65, and 18.7 GHz) which are less sensitive to atmospheric influence. This enables the passive microwave based retrieval of SIC and other surface parameters with higher resolution and lower uncertainty than is currently possible. An information content analysis expands the comparison between AMSR2 and CIMR to all retrievable surface and atmospheric parameters. This analysis quantifies the contributions to the observed signal and highlights the differences between different input channel combinations. The higher resolution of the low frequency CIMR channels allow for unprecedented detail to be achieved in Arctic passive microwave sea ice retrievals. The presence of 1.4 GHz channels on board CIMR opens up the possibility for thin sea ice thickness (SIT) retrieval. A combination of collocated AMSR2 and SMOS observations is used to simulate a full CIMR suite of measurements, and the OEM is modified to include SIT as a retrieval parameter. The output from different retrieval configurations is compared with an operational SIT product. The CIMR instrument can provide increased accuracy for SIC retrieval at very high resolutions with a combination of the 18.7 and 36.5 GHz channels while also maintaining sensitivity for atmospheric water vapor retrieval. In combination with the 1.4 GHz channels, SIT can be added as an eighth retrieval parameter with performance on par with existing operational products.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; sea ice ; satellite semote sensing ; passive microwave ; Arctic ; optimal estimation ; information content analysis
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  • 46
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    Stratospheric influence on ECMWF sub-seasonal forecast skill for energy-industry-relevant surface weather in European countries (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-01
    Description: Meteorologists in the energy industry increasingly draw upon the potential for enhanced sub-seasonal predictability of European surface weather following anomalous states of the winter stratospheric polar vortex (SPV). How the link between the SPV and the large-scale tropospheric flow translates into forecast skill for surface weather in individual countries – a spatial scale that is particularly relevant for the energy industry – remains an open question. Here we quantify the effect of anomalously strong and weak SPV states at forecast initial time on the probabilistic extended-range reforecast skill of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in predicting country- and month-ahead-averaged anomalies of 2 m temperature, 10 m wind speed, and precipitation. After anomalous SPV states, specific surface weather anomalies emerge, which resemble the opposing phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation. We find that forecast skill is, to first order, only enhanced for countries that are entirely affected by these anomalies. However, the model has a flow-dependent bias for 2 m temperature (T2M): it predicts the warm conditions in Western, Central and Southern Europe following strong SPV states well, but is overconfident with respect to the warm anomaly in Scandinavia. Vice versa, it predicts the cold anomaly in Scandinavia following weak SPV states well, but struggles to capture the strongly varying extent of the cold air masses into Central and Southern Europe. This tends to reduce skill (in some cases significantly) for Scandinavian countries following strong SPV states, and most pronounced, for many Central, Southern European, and Balkan countries following weak SPV states. As most of the weak SPV states are associated with sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), our study thus advices particular caution when interpreting sub-seasonal regional T2M forecasts following SSWs. In contrast, it suggests that the model benefits from enhanced predictability for a considerable part of Europe following strong SPV states.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; energy ; European countries ; polar vortex ; stratosphere ; sub-seasonal forecast skill ; sudden stratospheric warming ; surface weather
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  • 47
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    Analyzing the impact of automatization using parallel daily mean temperature series including breakpoint detection and homogenization (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-01
    Description: High-quality time series of meteorological observations are required for reliable assessments of climate trends. To analyze inhomogeneities in time series, parallel measurements can be used. Germany's national meteorological service DWD (Deutscher Wetterdienst) operates a network of climate reference stations. At these stations, manual and automatic observations have been taken in parallel. These parallel measurements therefore allow analyzing the impact of the transition on the homogeneity of time series of several meteorological parameters. Here, we present results for temperature. The differences between automatic and manual measurements are tested on breakpoints caused by instrumental defects or changes in the measurement conditions. The time series are highly correlated such that small breaks can be identified. The detected breakpoints are verified against metadata if available. In the case of no available metadata information, a procedure is suggested to identify the inhomogeneous time series (manual or automatic time series). Afterwards, the time series are homogenized. The homogenized time series are used to analyze the impact of changing the observing system from manual to automatic measurements on daily mean temperature.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; automatization ; breakpoint detection ; climate observations ; homogenization ; parallel measurements ; temperature series
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  • 48
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    Evaluating the GECCO3 1948–2018 ocean synthesis – a configuration for initializing the MPI-ESM climate model (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-01
    Description: The paper describes an update of the GECCO (German contribution to the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean project) ocean synthesis, now in its version 3, and provides an evaluation of the results with assimilated and independent data. GECCO3 covers the 71-year period 1948–2018 and differs from its predecessor by returning to a single assimilation window instead of partitioning the period in 5-year-long overlapping windows which was previously necessary to yield convergence. A solution to the convergence problem is presented. GECCO3 is intended to be used for the initialization of coupled climate models and is configured for the higher-resolution version of the earth system model (MPI-ESM) developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. It uses the bathymetry and grid of the MPI-ESM with quasi-uniform resolution of 0.4°, thereby providing the first global eddy-permitting synthesis based on the adjoint method. The synthesis additionally features the estimation of various mixing parameters and can regionally choose between explicit or parametrized eddy fluxes. Except for the altimeter data in tropical regions, GECCO3 is in better agreement with the assimilated data than GECCO2. The improvements relative to the in situ data partly result from the much larger amount of Argo data, which show lower model–data differences. Global heat content changes are in good agreement with recent estimates, but show uptake almost exclusively in the top 700 m. An alternative version of GECCO3, created by starting from different first-guess control parameters, was used to evaluate the uncertainty of the estimated parameters and state due to lack of convergence. This estimate suggests a large uncertainty related to the uptake of heat into the lower layers, while estimates of mean meridional transport of heat and freshwater are not affected.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; 551.46 ; climate model initialization ; eddy-permitting ocean synthesis ; heat content change ; ocean transports
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  • 49
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    Future haze events in Beijing, China: When climate warms by 1.5 and 2.0°C (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-01
    Description: China is the world's second-largest economy, and its capital Beijing has been suffering from severe haze pollution in recent years. However, how the winter haze events in Beijing vary under different global warming scenarios is still open for debate. In order to analyse long-term winter haze characteristics in Beijing in the future, we have simulated haze events using the haze weather index (HWI) for the warming periods of 1.5 and 2.0°C, based on 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Our results indicate that 16 CMIP5 models have preferable performance in simulating the spatial pattern and occurrence frequency of winter haze events in Beijing. We highlight that in the 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming period (2020s–2050s), Beijing will face a significant increasing trend (6–9% growth rate) in the occurrence of winter haze events compared with the reference period (1986–2005). The frequency of winter haze events under the RCP4.5 increases less than under the RCP8.5 in the 1.5°C warming period but is closer to RCP8.5 in the 2.0°C warming period. The increase of winter haze events with respect to natural factors in Beijing could be attributed to stronger atmospheric inversions, weaker East Asian winter monsoons, and a shallowing East Asian trough induced by global warming. Our results will provide scientific instructions for environmental departments to better face meteorological hazards, such as air pollution episodes, thereby improving the early warning mechanism system for global warming.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; 1.5°C ; 2.0°C ; China ; CMIP5 ; global warming ; haze
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  • 50
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    Efficiency and Accuracy of Micro-Macro Models for Mineral Dissolution (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-12-03
    Description: Micro-macro models for dissolution processes are derived from detailed pore-scale models applying upscaling techniques. They consist of flow and transport equations at the scale of the porous medium (macroscale). Both include averaged time- and space-dependent coefficient functions (permeability, porosity, reactive surface, and effective diffusion). These are in turn explicitly computed from the time- and space-dependent geometry of unit cells and by means of auxiliary cell problems defined therein (microscale). The explicit geometric structure is characterized by a level set. For its evolution, information from the transport equations solutions is taken into account (micro-macro scales). A numerical scheme is introduced, which is capable of evaluating such complex settings. For the level-set equation a second-order scheme is applied, which enables us to accurately determine the dynamic reactive surface. Local mesh refinement methods are applied to evaluate Stokes type cell problems using P2/P1 elements and a Uzawa type linear solver. Applications of our permeability solver to scenarios involving static and evolving geometries are presented. Furthermore, macroscopic flow and transport equations are solved applying mixed finite elements. Finally, adaptive strategies to overcome the computational burden are discussed. We apply our approach to the dissolution of an array of dolomite grains in the micro-macro context and validate our numerical scheme.
    Keywords: 551.49 ; 550.724 ; porous media ; reactive flow ; dissolution processes ; modeling
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    Carbon release and transformation from coastal peat deposits controlled by submarine groundwater discharge: a column experiment study (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-12-06
    Description: Abstract Although the majority of coastal sediments consist of sandy material, in some areas marine ingression caused the submergence of terrestrial carbon-rich peat soils. This affects the coastal carbon balance, as peat represents a potential carbon source. We performed a column experiment to better understand the coupled flow and biogeochemical processes governing carbon transformations in submerged peat under coastal fresh groundwater (GW) discharge and brackish water intrusion. The columns contained naturally layered sediments with and without peat (organic carbon content in peat 39 ± 14 wt%), alternately supplied with oxygen-rich brackish water from above and oxygen-poor, low-saline GW from below. The low-saline GW discharge through the peat significantly increased the release and ascent of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from the peat (δ13CDOC − 26.9‰ to − 27.7‰), which was accompanied by the production of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and emission of carbon dioxide (CO2), implying DOC mineralization. Oxygen respiration, sulfate (SO42−) reduction, and methane (CH4) formation were differently pronounced in the sediments and were accompanied with higher microbial abundances in peat compared to sand with SO42−-reducing bacteria clearly dominating methanogens. With decreasing salinity and SO42− concentrations, CH4 emission rates increased from 16.5 to 77.3 μmol m−2 d−1 during a 14-day, low-saline GW discharge phase. In contrast, oxygenated brackish water intrusion resulted in lower DOC and DIC pore water concentrations and significantly lower CH4 and CO2 emissions. Our study illustrates the strong dependence of carbon cycling in shallow coastal areas with submerged peat deposits on the flow and mixing dynamics within the subterranean estuary.
    Keywords: 550.724 ; coastal peatlands ; coastal peatlands ; biogeochemical processes ; carbon release ; column experiments
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  • 52
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    Arctic Ocean Surface Energy Flux and the Cold Halocline in Future Climate Projections (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-25
    Description: Ocean heat transport is often thought to play a secondary role for Arctic surface warming in part because warm water which flows northward is prevented from reaching the surface by a cold and stable halocline layer. However, recent observations in various regions indicate that occasionally, warm water is found directly below the surface mixed layer. Here we investigate Arctic Ocean surface energy fluxes and the cold halocline layer in climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. An ensemble of 15 models shows decreased sea ice formation and increased ocean energy release during fall, winter, and spring for a high-emission future scenario. Along the main pathways for warm water advection, this increased energy release is not locally balanced by increased Arctic Ocean energy uptake in summer. Because during Arctic winter, the ocean mixed layer is mainly heated from below, we analyze changes of the cold halocline layer in the monthly mean Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 data. Fresh water acts to stabilize the upper ocean as expected based on previous studies. We find that in spite of this stabilizing effect, periods in which warm water is found directly or almost directly below the mixed layer and which occur mainly in winter and spring become more frequent in high-emission future scenario simulations, especially along the main pathways for warm water advection. This could reduce sea ice formation and surface albedo.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; 551.6 ; Arctic ; climate change ; cold halocline ; climate modeling
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    Poleward Shift of Northern Subtropics in Winter: Time of Emergence of Zonal Versus Regional Signals (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-25
    Description: The Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes will be exposed to hydroclimatic risk in next coming decades because the subtropical expansion. However, it is not clear when the anthropogenic signal will emerge from the internal climate variability. For this purpose, we investigate the time of emergence (ToE) of the hemispheric and regional shift of northern subtropical margins in the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble. For several indicators, the ToE of the poleward shift of Northern subtropical margin will not occur by the end of the 21st century, neither at regional nor at hemispheric scale. The exceptions are the Mediterranean/Middle East and, to a lesser degree, Western Pacific, where the ToE would occur earlier. According to our results, given the fundamental role played by internal variability, trends of Northern Hemisphere subtropical poleward shift that have been identified over last decades in reanalyses cannot be considered as robust signals of anthropogenic climate change.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; Northern Hemisphere subtropics ; poleward shift ; MPI-ESM Grand Ensemble ; forced response ; natural variability ; time of emergence
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    Stronger Global Warming on Nonrainy Days in Observations From China (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-25
    Description: Nonrainy days have rather different hydrologic and radiative conditions than rainy days, but few investigations considered how these different conditions contribute to the observed global warming. Here, we show that global warming is considerably stronger on nonrainy days using observations from China. We find that trends in mean temperature on nonrainy days are about 0.1 ° C/10 yr higher than on rainy days, and that about 80% of the total temperature increase is contributed by nonrainy days. The main reason is likely to be a stronger sensitivity of downwelling longwave radiation to greenhouse forcing on nonrainy days due to fewer clouds and water vapor compared with rainy days, which is not a hydrological effect but mainly a radiative effect. Our findings are consistent with the stronger mean temperature trends in drier regions and imply that the different temperature sensitivities on nonrainy and rainy days may have profound effects on natural and social systems.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; global warming ; rainy day ; temperature trend
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    Interannual to millennial-scale variability of River Ammer floods and its relationship with solar forcing (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-26
    Description: The relationship between River Ammer flood frequency variability, extreme summer climate over Europe, and solar forcing is investigated. First, we used observational data to evaluate extreme weather and climate anomaly patterns associated with flood and solar forcing as well as the possible dynamical mechanisms behind them. Then, the annual resolution flood layer record from the Lake Ammer sediments is analysed to evaluate millennial-scale variability of floods and possible related extreme climate patterns back to 5,500 years BP. A composite analysis reveals that observed River Ammer flood frequency variability at interannual to multidecadal time scales is connected to large-scale extreme precipitation and temperature patterns. From a synoptic-scale perspective, the extreme precipitation pattern associated with floods is related to an increase in the frequency of high upper-level potential vorticity (PV) events over western Europe and a decrease over eastern Europe and western Russia. Increased (decreased) frequency of upper-level high PV events is related to more (less) surface extreme precipitation occurrence. Furthermore, we show that increased frequency of upper-level high PV events over western Europe is associated with enhanced blocking activity over eastern Europe. Therefore, the out of phase interannual to millennial-scale variations of River Ammer flood frequency and solar irradiance, as presented in previous studies, can be explained by a solar modulation of eastern European-western Russia summer blocking and associated upstream upper-level wave breaking activity. In addition, we identify two distinct quasi-periodic signals in both frequency of Lake Ammer flood layer and solar irradiance records with periods of ~900 years and ~2,300 years. We argue that similar cycles should dominate millennial-scale variations of blocking activity in eastern Europe-western Russia as well as extreme precipitation and flood frequency variability over central and western Europe during the last ~5,500 years.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; floods ; extreme precipitation ; potential vorticity ; solar forcing
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    Opportunistic Constant Target Matching—A New Method for Satellite Intercalibration (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-26
    Description: Opportunistic constant target matching is a new method for satellite intercalibration. It solves a long-standing issue with the traditional simultaneous nadir overpass (SNO) method, namely, that it typically provides only data points with cold brightness temperatures for humidity sounding instruments on sun-synchronous satellites. In the new method, a geostationary infrared sensor (SEVIRI) is used to select constant target matches for two different microwave sensors (MHS on NOAA 18 and Metop A). We discuss the main assumptions and limitations of the method and explore its statistical properties with a simple Monte Carlo simulation. The method was tested in a simple case study with real observations for this combination of satellites for MHS Channel 3 at 183 ± 1 GHz, the upper tropospheric humidity channel. For the studied 3-month test period, real observations are found to behave consistently with the simulations, increasing our confidence that the method can be a valuable tool for intercalibration efforts. For the selected case study, the new method confirms that the bias between NOAA 18 and Metop A MHS Channel 3 is very small, with absolute value below 0.05 K.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; satellite ; calibration ; collocation ; microwave ; infrared
    Language: English
    Type: map
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