ALBERT

Description: While secondary plastics arising at the manufacturing and processing phases are recycled to the production process in large measure due to its high purity, the market share of secondary plastics remains low and recycling is often dominated by thermal recovery. Energetic recovery of plastics in waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) has been dominating for a long time. At the same time reuse of WEEE is not well developed at EU level; with few exceptions at Member State level. Against this background we want to discuss in this book chapter several policy instruments that aim to increase the reuse of WEEE as well as the use of secondary plastics in electrical and electronic equipment. Taking the case study of Germany we evaluate instruments theoretical quantity effects and their feasibility. In reality, instruments are often weak and scattered implemented. To identify a policy mix without the risk of creating expensive policies with the potential for inefficient outcomes, we make two complementary conceptual proposes, which first open up perspectives for possible synergies of instruments and second allow an integrated understanding of the regional context in which instruments are implemented. The discussion of the case study of promoting reuse within this framework makes clear, that such an integrated understanding is the basis for any appropriate, targeted and efficient stimulation and bridges the gap between theoretical policy formulation and practically implementation.

Description: Human nutrition is responsible for about 30% of the global natural resource use. In order to decrease resource use to a level in line with planetary boundaries, a resource use reduction in the nutrition sector by a factor 2 is suggested. A large untapped potential to increase resource efficiency and improve consumers' health status is assumed, but valid indicators and general guidelines to assess these impacts and limits can barely be found. Therefore we will have a try to define sustainable limits towards the individuals' daily diet and therefore stimulate current available scientific debate. Within the paper an examination of existing indicators and assessment methods is carried out. We set the focus on health indicators, such as energy intake, and environmental indicators, such as the carbon or material footprint. The paper aims to provide first, an assessment of core indicators to explore the sustainability impact of foodstuff, and second, a deeper understanding and a discussion of sustainable limits for those dimensions of food and nutrition. Therefore we will discuss several ecological and health indicators which may be suitable to assess the sustainabilty impact and indicate differences or similarities. As a result it becomes obvious that several ecological indicators "point in the same direction" and therefore a discussion about the variability and the variety of these indicators has to be faced in the future. Further the definition of sustainable levels per indicator is an essential aspect to get an idea about the needed barriers for a sustainable nutrition, by now first steps had been made, but no binding guidelines are available yet. Therefore the paper suggests a few indications to set up sustainable levels for health and environmental indicators, based on the idea to reduce the resource use level up to 30-50% in 2030.

Description: In a globalized economy, the use of natural resources is determined by the demand of modern production and consumption systems, and by infrastructure development. Sustainable natural resource use will require good governance and management based on sound scientific information, data and indicators. There is a rich literature on natural resource management, yet the national and global scale and macro-economic policy making has been underrepresented. We provide an overview of the scholarly literature on multi-scale governance of natural resources, focusing on the information required by relevant actors from local to global scale. Global natural resource use is largely determined by national, regional, and local policies. We observe that in recent decades, the development of public policies of natural resource use has been fostered by an "inspiration cycle" between the research, policy and statistics community, fostering social learning. Effective natural resource policies require adequate monitoring tools, in particular indicators for the use of materials, energy, land, and water as well as waste and GHG emissions of national economies. We summarize the state-of-the-art of the application of accounting methods and data sources for national material flow accounts and indicators, including territorial and product-life-cycle based approaches. We show how accounts on natural resource use can inform the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and argue that information on natural resource use, and in particular footprint indicators, will be indispensable for a consistent implementation of the SDGs. We recognize that improving the knowledge base for global natural resource use will require further institutional development including at national and international levels, for which we outline options.

Description: In recent years, a number of energy scenario studies which aim to advise policy makers on appropriate energy policy measures have been developed. These studies highlight changes required to achieve a future energy system that is in line with public policy goals such as reduced greenhouse gas emissions and an affordable energy supply. We argue that behavioural changes towards energy-sufficient lifestyles have considerable potential to contribute to public policy goals and may even be indispensable for achieving some of these goals. This potential should, therefore, be reflected in scenario studies aiming to provide comprehensive advice to policy makers. We analyse the role that energy-sufficient lifestyles play in prominent recent global energy scenario studies and find that these studies largely ignore the potential of possible behavioural changes towards energy-sufficient lifestyles. We also describe how such changes have been considered in several other scenario studies, in order to derive recommendations for the future development of global energy scenarios. We conclude that the inclusion of lifestyle changes in energy scenarios is both possible and useful. Based on our findings, we present some general advice for energy scenario developers on how to better integrate sufficiency into future energy scenario studies in a quantitative manner.

Description: The German federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) is home to one of the most important industrial regions in Europe, and is the first German state to have adopted its own Climate Protection Law (CPL). This paper describes the long-term (up to 2050) mitigation scenarios for NRW’s main energy-intensive industrial sub-sectors which served to support the implementation of the CPL. It also describes the process of scenario development, as these scenarios were developed through stakeholder participation. The scenarios considered three different pathways (best-available technologies, break-through technologies, and CO2 capture and storage). All pathways had optimistic assumptions on the rate of industrial growth and availability of low-carbon electricity. We find that a policy of "re-industrialisation" for NRW based on the current industrial structures (assumed here to represent an average growth of NRWs industrial gross value added (GVA) of 1.6% per year until 2030 and 0.6% per year from 2030 to 2050), would pose a significant challenge for the achievement of overall energy demand and German greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets, in particular as remaining efficiency potentials in NRW are limited. In the best-available technology (BAT) scenario CO2 emission reductions of only 16% are achieved, whereas the low carbon (LC) and the carbon capture and storage (CCS) scenario achieve 50% and 79% reduction respectively. Our results indicate the importance of successful development and implementation of a decarbonised electricity supply and breakthrough technologies in industry - such as electrification, hydrogen-based processes for steel, alternative cements or CCS - if significant growth is to be achieved in combination with climate mitigation. They, however, also show that technological solutions alone, together with unmitigated growth in consumption of material goods, could be insufficient to meet GHG reduction targets in industry.

Description: The German government has set itself the target of reducing the country's GHG emissions by between 80 and 95% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels. Alongside energy efficiency, renewable energy sources are set to play the main role in this transition. However, the large-scale deployment of renewable energies is expected to cause increased demand for critical mineral resources. The aim of this article is therefore to determine whether the transformation of the German energy system by 2050 ("Energiewende") may possibly be restricted by a lack of critical minerals, focusing primarily on the power sector (generating, transporting and storing electricity from renewable sources). For the relevant technologies, we create roadmaps describing a number of conceivable quantitative market developments in Germany. Estimating the current and future specific material demand of the options selected and projecting them along a range of long-term energy scenarios allows us to assess potential medium- or long-term mineral resource restrictions. The main conclusion we draw is that the shift towards an energy system based on renewable sources that is currently being pursued is principally compatible with the geological availability and supply of mineral resources. In fact, we identified certain sub-technologies as being critical with regard to potential supply risks, owing to dependencies on a small number of supplier countries and competing uses. These sub-technologies are certain wind power plants requiring neodymium and dysprosium, thin-film CIGS photovoltaic cells using indium and selenium, and large-scale redox flow batteries using vanadium. However, non-critical alternatives to these technologies do indeed exist. The likelihood of supplies being restricted can be decreased further by cooperating even more closely with companies in the supplier countries and their governments, and by establishing greater resource efficiency and recyclability as key elements of technology development.

Description: Energy systems across the globe are going through a radical transformation as a result of technological and institutional changes, depletion of fossil fuel resources, and climate change. At the local level, increasing distributed energy resources requires that the centralized energy systems be re-organized. In this paper, the concept of Integrated community energy systems (ICESs) is presented as a modern development to re-organize local energy systems to integrate distributed energy resources and engage local communities. Local energy systems such as ICESs not only ensure self-provision of energy but also provide essential system services to the larger energy system. In this regard, a comparison of different energy system integration option is provided. We review the current energy trends and the associated technological, socio-economic, environmental and institutional issues shaping the development of ICESs. These systems can be applied to both developed and developing countries, however, their objectives, business models as well as composition differs. ICESs can be accepted by different actors such as local governments, communities, energy suppliers and system operators as an effective means to achieve sustainability and thereby will have significant roles in future energy systems.

Description: In the future, the capacities of renewable SNG (synthetic natural gas) will expand significantly. Pilot plants are underway to use surplus renewable power, mainly from wind, for electrolysis and the production of hydrogen, which is methanated and fed into the existing gas pipeline grid. Pilot projects aim at the energetic use of SNG for households and transport in particular for gas fueled cars. Another option could be the use of SNG as feedstock in chemical industry. The early stage of development raises the question of whether SNG should be better used for mobility or the production of chemicals. This study compares the global warming potential (GWP) of the production of fossil natural gas (NG) and carbon-dioxide (CO2)-based SNG and its use for car transport versus chemical use in the form of synthesis gas. Since the potential of wind energy for SNG production is mainly located in northern Germany, the consequences by a growing distance between production in the North and transport to the South of Germany are also examined. The results indicate that CO2-based SNG produced with wind power would lead to lower GWP when substituting NG for both uses in either transport or chemical production. Differences of the savings potential occur in short-distance pipeline transport. The critical factor is the energy required for compression along the process chain.

Description: This article presents an integrated assessment conducted in order to explore whether carbon capture and storage (CCS) could be a viable technological option for significantly reducing future CO2 emissions in South Africa. The methodological approach covers a commercial availability analysis, an analysis of the long-term usable CO2 storage potential (based on storage capacity assessment, energy scenario analysis and source-sink matching), an economic and ecological assessment and a stakeholder analysis. The findings show, that a reliable storage capacity assessment is needed, since only rough figures concerning the effective capacity currently exist. Further constraints on the fast deployment of CCS may be the delayed commercial availability of CCS, significant barriers to increasing the economic viability of CCS, an expected net maximum reduction rate of the power plant's greenhouse gas emissions of 67%-72%, an increase in other environmental and social impacts, and low public awareness of CCS. One precondition for opting for CCS would be to find robust solutions to these constraints, taking into account that CCS could potentially conflict with other important policy objectives, such as affordable electricity rates to give the whole population access to electricity.

Description: Insulating existing buildings offers great potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and meeting Germany's climate protection targets. Previous research suggests that, since homeowners' decision-making processes are inadequately understood as yet, today's incentives aiming at increasing insulation activity lead to unsatisfactory results. We developed an agent-based model to foster the understanding of homeowners' decision-making processes regarding insulation and to explore how situational factors, such as the structural condition of houses and social interaction, influence their insulation activity. Simulation experiments allow us furthermore to study the influence of socio-spatial structures such as residential segregation and population density on the diffusion of renovation behavior among homeowners. Based on the insights gained, we derive recommendations for designing innovative policy instruments. We conclude that the success of particular policy instruments aiming at increasing homeowners' insulation activity in a specific region depends on the socio-spatial structure at hand, and that reducing financial constraints only has a relatively low potential for increasing Germany's insulation rate. Policy instruments should also target the fact that specific renovation occasions are used to undertake additional insulation activities, e.g. by incentivizing lenders and craftsmen to advise homeowners to have insulation installed.

Description: De-industrialization, climate and demographic changes are only a few key words that indicate the challenge of urban development in many industrialized countries for the coming decades. A fundamental transformation of infrastructure and the built environment is expected to adjust to future needs. Numerous concepts of integrating efficiency and renewable energy sources into urban planning were elaborated in recent years. Energy sufficiency in the meaning of voluntary demand reduction of energy intensive goods and services is the third and mostly forgotten pillar of sustainable development. However, organizational and spatial measures are needed to support behavior modification. This paper presents results of a transdisciplinary research design with local stakeholders and scientific experts to develop an understanding of what energy sufficiency might contribute to sustainable urban development. Based on the Multi-Level-Perspective of the transition research approach, it analyzes how stakeholders and experts define energy sufficiency structures for the shrinking district of Vohwinkel (Germany). The paper also shows a compilation and evaluation of measures which facilitate energy sufficient behavior in the fields of space heating and passenger transport on a local level. The methodological concept comprises expert interviews, thought experiments with stakeholders to develop a vision of an "energy sufficient Vohwinkel 2050" as well as a stakeholder workshop to discuss the results. A shrinking population is seen as a chance to actively adapt the built environment to foster energy sufficiency.

Description: The adverse environmental impacts from inefficient building construction increase if measures to reduce energy and resource use, through stringent building policies and efficient technology, are not implemented in developed and developing countries. To illustrate a holistic approach to reducing buildings' energy and resources, the comparison of energy efficient and green buildings in terms of their technological aspects and their policy context in developed and developing countries, mainly in Europe, the USA and India, is presented together with a policy package recommendation for Nepal. A quality review of multiple literature sources, supported by various expert opinions, were the methods used for this in-depth analysis. It discusses that mandatory building standards, voluntary labels, information instruments and financial incentives are the most effective combination for the shift towards market transformation, that results in a higher share of energy efficient and green buildings. The lesson such as higher compliance with, and enforcement of, building energy standards can be seen in developed countries (e.g. Germany). Looking at a building's life cycle perspective, it is not sufficient to focus solely on operational energy reduction in higher energy efficient buildings as this is achieved by the increased use of energy intensive materials. Green requirements must be considered in updating building energy standards and labels, particularly for developed countries. Green building certification will also become more effective when the stringency of energy standards is higher and when the whole building life cycle assessment is considered. Due to the increasing scarcity of energy and resources, many developing countries are forced to face up to the need for holistic green buildings. Although baseline standards are not as high as in most developed countries and national financial support is low, the gradual move towards making the standards more stringent and incorporating the wider scope of resource saving are positive developments in developing countries (e.g. India). However, to achieve significant success, strategies must include the establishment of a suitable funding environment, a political commitment and a strong government vision for long term and sustainable building construction. The challenges faced by Nepal are even greater due to the fast pace of urban growth and the absence of energy and resource efficient buildings policies, highlighting the need for an effective policy package. Overall, this dissertation demonstrates how energy efficient and green buildings are interlinked. Green buildings reinforced with higher levels of energy efficiency and energy efficient buildings incorporating green requirements are stepping-stones for achieving greater building energy and resource efficiencies. And a suitable policy package fosters its development.

Description: Biodiversity loss is widely recognized as a serious global environmental change process. While large-scale metal mining activities do not belong to the top drivers of such change, these operations exert or may intensify pressures on biodiversity by adversely changing habitats, directly and indirectly, at local and regional scales. So far, analyses of global spatial dynamics of mining and its burden on biodiversity focused on the overlap between mines and protected areas or areas of high value for conservation. However, it is less clear how operating metal mines are globally exerting pressure on zones of different biodiversity richness; a similar gap exists for unmined but known mineral deposits. By using vascular plants' diversity as a proxy to quantify overall biodiversity, this study provides a first examination of the global spatial distribution of mines and deposits for five key metals across different biodiversity zones. The results indicate that mines and deposits are not randomly distributed, but concentrated within intermediate and high diversity zones, especially bauxite and silver. In contrast, iron, gold, and copper mines and deposits are closer to a more proportional distribution while showing a high concentration in the intermediate biodiversity zone. Considering the five metals together, 63% and 61% of available mines and deposits, respectively, are located in intermediate diversity zones, comprising 52% of the global land terrestrial surface. 23% of mines and 20% of ore deposits are located in areas of high plant diversity, covering 17% of the land. 13% of mines and 19% of deposits are in areas of low plant diversity, comprising 31% of the land surface. Thus, there seems to be potential for opening new mines in areas of low biodiversity in the future.

Description: Objective: The aim of the present article is to conduct an integrated assessment in order to explore whether CCS could be a viable technological option for significantly reducing future CO2 emissions in India. Methods: In this paper, an integrated approach covering five assessment dimensions is chosen. However, each dimension is investigated using specific methods (graphical abstract). Results: The most crucial precondition that must be met is a reliable storage capacity assessment based on site-specific geological data since only rough figures concerning the theoretical capacity exist at present. Our projection of different trends of coal-based power plant capacities up to 2050 ranges between 13 and 111 Gt of CO2 that may be captured from coal-fired power plants to be built by 2050. If very optimistic assumptions about the country's CO2 storage potential are applied, 75 Gt of CO2 could theoretically be stored as a result of matching these sources with suitable sinks. If a cautious approach is taken by considering the country's effective storage potential, only a fraction may potentially be sequestered. In practice, this potential will decrease further with the impact of technical, legal, economic and social acceptance factors. Further constraints may be the delayed commercial availability of CCS in India, a significant barrier to achieving the economic viability of CCS, an expected net maximum reduction rate of the power plant’s greenhouse gas emissions of 71-74%, an increase of most other environmental and social impacts, and a lack of governmental, industrial or societal CCS advocates. Conclusion and practice implications: Several preconditions need to be fulfilled if CCS is to play a future role in reducing CO2 emissions in India, the most crucial one being to determine reliable storage capacity figures. In order to overcome these barriers, the industrialised world would need to make a stronger commitment in terms of CCS technology demonstration, cooperation and transfer to emerging economies like India. The integrated assessment might also be extended by a comparison with other low-carbon technology options to draw fully valid conclusions on the most suitable solution for a sustainable future energy supply in India.

Description: The global demand for timber is increasing, with prognoses for the EU showing particularly high growth to meet renewable energy targets. However, there are limited options to meet rising timber demands within the EU, and global land competition to meet world food, energy and material needs, as well as to conserve high value nature areas, is increasing. This dissertation addresses the knowledge gap between the pressures of increased land use abroad and the underlying drivers of land use change. It argues that there is a high risk of problem shifting if EU policies to increase timber consumption are not accompanied by a monitoring system that accounts for consumption levels and provides a benchmark for sustainability.

Description: Energy intensive industries are one of the fields in which strong increases of energy efficiency and deep decarbonisation strategies are particularly challenging. Although European energy intensive industries have already achieved significant energy and greenhouse gas reductions in the past, much remains to be done to make a significant contribution to achieving European as well as national climate mitigation targets of greenhouse gas emission reductions by -80% or more (compared to the baseline of 1990). North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) is a European hotspot for coping with this challenge, accommodating more than 10% of the energy intensive industries of the EU28. It is also the first German state to have adopted its own Climate Law, enacting state-wide CO2 emission reductions by 80% until 2050 compared to 1990. The state government initiated the project "Platform Climate Protection and Industry North-Rhine Westphalia" to identify and develop the necessary far-reaching low carbon innovation strategies for energy intensive industries. Heart of the project was a dialogue process, which involved a broad spectrum of stakeholders from steel, chemical, aluminium, cement, glass and paper producing industries. Besides enhancing and broadening the knowledge on high efficiency and low-carbon technologies within industries, the aim was to explore possible pathways and preconditions for the application of these technologies in energy intensive industries as well as to strengthen the motivation of companies for initiatives and investments in technologies with lower CO2 emissions. The results of the dialogue shall provide a basis for a possible low-carbon industry roadmap NRW and may also serve as an example for other industrialized regions in the EU and globally. The paper sketches the structured dialogue process with the stakeholders from companies as well as industrial associations and presents the learnings regarding the engagement of energy intensive industries into ambitious climate policies on a regional level. These include existing limitations as well as chances in the respective sectors on the state level, regarding their economic and technical structures as well as their innovation systems. The findings are based on more than a dozen stakeholder workshops with industry companies and more than 150 individual representatives of NRW's energy intensive industries as well as on background research in the initial phase of the project.

Description: Washing laundry is one of the most widespread housework tasks in the world. Washing machines, performing this task already in many private households, are now responsible for about 2% of the global electricity consumption. Worldwide, more than 840 million domestic washing machines are in use, with an annual consumption exceeding 92 TWh of electricity and 19 billion m3 of water as well as causing emissions of more than 62 megatons CO2eq. In North America, Western Europe and Pacific OECD countries, most households own a washing machine. In these economies standard and label policy programs already addressed and reduced the specific electricity and water consumption of washing machines per wash cycle. Nevertheless, in other world regions, the level of ownership for washing machines is still well below saturation and high growth rates can be observed in developing and newly industrialising countries. As washing machines use water, electricity, chemical substances and process time as resources, also the absolute worldwide resource consumption and emissions of these appliances are still on the rise. Due to different washing habits and practices as well as types of washing machines in different world regions, the specific consumption of resources for doing the laundry is varying to a large extent. On that score, this paper presents an overview of the current situation worldwide as well as respective saving potentials. Bottom-up scenario calculations, carried out for the 11 world regions according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change classification, show that large energy, water and greenhouse gas savings are possible with the "Best Available Technologies" today, and even higher savings will be possible with next generation "Best Not yet Available Technologies". According to model results, these savings are usually also very cost-effective. Following these calculations, it is highly advisable for policymakers world-wide to pay even more attention to improvement options in order to implement ambitious and product-specific policy packages, including minimum performance standards and labelling schemes.

Description: Sustainable supply chain management can drive sustainability. The interpretation of Sustainable supply chain management as an upstreamoriented strategy has an important, but limited potential. Addressing consumer needs and lifestyles downstream can increase the sustainability potentials of Sustainable supply chain management.

Description: This paper is the first of its kind, providing an identification of the problems encountered in all documented global experiences of cultivating the Jatropha curcas plant, covering 22 case studies. Influential components of the biodiesel production (stakeholders like government, farmers and enterprises as well as resources such as land and water) and how they are interconnected are pinpointed. In addition, the article gives recommendations to the main actors under ecological and socio-economic criteria to ensure a sustainable production of J. curcas oil in regions with appropriate climatic conditions for the plant's viability. Hence, this analysis of experiences discusses the following questions: What are the reasons and factors for the previous unsuccessful and unsustainable cultivation of J. curcas for producing biodiesel? Can it be lucrative and simultaneously achieve poverty alleviation/job creation under the constraints of efficient use of resources (land and water)?

Description: This article analyses drivers and barriers to returning and recycling mobile phones and their consideration in existing communication and collection campaigns. This is an important issue based on the fact that the mobile phone market is growing rapidly. In 2015 there are nearly 7 billion global mobile cellular subscriptions. This means that, at least theoretically, everyone in the world has access to mobile communication services (ITU 2015). However, the production of mobile phones is linked to an increasing use of natural resources: the "ecological rucksack" of a mobile phone is equal to about 75 kg of resources (Nordmann et al. 2015); while the global recycling rate of mobile phones is under 10 per cent (Nokia 2008, Tanskanen 2012). In order to adress this issue, the main factors that influence return and recycling behaviour (focussing on mobile phones) will be discussed in chapter 2 of this article. The theoretical analysis is based on the norm activation model by Ellen Matthies (2005). This analysis will be complemented by empirical data and findings generated in the research project "Return and use of old mobile phones", funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research (Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment, Energy/Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, 2012-2014). To conclude, we will identify and operationalise essential components of mobile phone communication and collection campaigns, based on the theoretical approach of Matthies, literature and empirical studies, in order to develop a set of criteria for analysing and rating such communication and collection campaigns. The results show that economic incentives as well as education and communication play a very important role in initiating more sustainable behavioural patterns in the ICT sector. The role of emotional factors is often underestimated in the development of communication activities. In summary, successful mobile phone communication and collection campaigns require a combination of several institutional, economic, social and emotional factors.

Description: Distributed cogeneration units are flexible and suited to providing balancing power, thereby contributing to the integration of renewable electricity. Against this background, we analysed the technical potential and ecological impact of CHP (combined heat and power) systems on the German minutes reserve market for 2010, 2020 and 2030. Typical CHP plants (from 1 to 2800 kWel) were evaluated in relation to typical buildings or supply cases in different sectors. The minutes reserve potential was determined by an optimisation model with a temporal resolution of 15 min. The results were scaled up to national level using a scenario analysis for the future development of CHP. Additionally, the extent to which three different flexibility measures (double plant size/fourfold storage volume/emergency cooler) increase the potential provision of balancing power was examined. Key findings demonstrate that distributed CHP could contribute significantly to the provision of minutes reserve in future decades. Flexibility options would further enhance the theoretical potential. The grid-orientated operating mode slightly increases CO2 emissions compared to the heat-orientated mode, but it is still preferable to the separate generation of heat and power. However, the impacts of a flexible mode depend greatly on the application and power-to-heat ratio of the individual CHP system.

Description: In this paper a new method for the evaluation and comparison of potential future electricity systems is presented. The German electricity system in the year 2050 is used as an example. Based on a comprehensive scenario analysis defining a corridor for possible shares of fluctuating renewable energy sources (FRES) residual loads are calculated in a unified manner. The share of electricity from PV and wind power plants in Germany in the year 2050 is in a range of 42-122% and the load demand has a bandwidth of around 460-750 TWh. The residual loads are input for an algorithm that defines a supplementary mix of technologies providing flexibility to the system. The overall system layout guarantees the balance of generation and demand at all times. Due to the fact that the same method for residual load calculation and mixture of technologies is applied for all scenarios, a good comparability is guaranteed and we are able to identify key characteristics for future developments. The unique feature of the new algorithms presented here is the very fast calculation for a year-long simulation with hourly or shorter time steps taking into account the state of charge or availability of all storage and flexibility technologies. This allows an analysis of many different scenarios on a macro-economic level, variation of input parameters can easily be done, and extensive sensitivity analysis is possible. Furthermore different shares of FRES, CO2-emission targets, interest rates or social acceptance of certain technologies can be included. The capabilities of the method are demonstrated by an analysis of potential German power system layouts with a base scenario of 90% CO2-reduction target compared to 1990 and by the identification of different options for a power sector with a high degree of decarbonisation. The approach also aims at a very high level of transparency both regarding the algorithms and regarding the input parameters of the different technologies taken into account. Therefore this paper also gives a comprehensive and complete overview on the technology parameters used. The forecast on all technologies for the year 2050 regarding technical and economic parameters was made in a comprehensive consultation process with more than 100 experts representing academia and industry working on all different technologies. An extensive analysis of options for the design of potential German energy supply systems in 2050 based on the presented methodology will be published in a follow-up paper.

Description: A key factor to energy-efficiency of heating in buildings is the behavior of households, in particular how they ventilate rooms. Energy demand can be reduced by behavioral change; devices can support this by giving feedback to consumers on their behavior. One such feedback device, called the "CO2 meter", shows indoor air-quality in the colors of a traffic light to motivate so called "shock ventilation", which is energy-efficient ventilation behavior. The following effects of the "CO2 meter" are analyzed: (1) the effect of the device on ventilation behavior within households, (2) the diffusion of "CO2 meter" to other households, and (3) the diffusion of changed behavior to households that do not adopt a "CO2 meter". An agent-based model of these processes for the city of Bottrop (Germany) was developed using a variety of data sources. The model shows that the "CO2 meter" would increase adoption of energy-efficient ventilation by c. 12% and reduce heating demand by c. 1% within 15 years. Technology diffusion was found to explain at least c. 54% of the estimated energy savings; behavior diffusion explains up to 46%. These findings indicate that the "CO2 meter" is an interesting low-cost solution to increase the energy-efficiency in residential heating.

Description: In October 2014, the European Council agreed on a target of improving overall energy efficiency by at least 27 per cent by 2030. According to the European Council's conclusions, this target should not be translated into nationally binding targets. Nevertheless individual Member States are free to set higher national objectives if desired. However, it is difficult to assess the degree of ambition of a national target because so far not much light has been shed upon the exact size of the untapped efficiency potentials. This paper provides an in-depth analysis and comparison of existing studies on energy efficiency potentials in the European Union's (EU) Member States by 2030. It includes a structured overview of the results, information on the quality of the available data and suggestions for improvement. The review shows that comprehensive studies on national energy efficiency potentials are rare and hardly comparable. The existing studies agree on the existence of significant potentials for energy efficiency. Their outcomes, however, vary significantly in terms of national levels. Assuming low policy intensity, energy savings between 10 and 28 per cent could be realised by 2030 compared to a baseline development, in the case of high policy intensity 7-44 per cent. Technical energy efficiency potentials in the different EU Member States are estimated at 14-52 per cent. On average, energy savings of 27 per cent by 2030 appear to be feasible with significant policy effort. We conclude that the deviation in Member States' energy efficiency potentials resulting from different studies represents an indication of the so far poor quality of underlying data. In order to allow for a concretisation of efficiency potential estimates, the comparability and detail of information sources should be improved.

Description: The economic assessment of low-carbon energy options is the primary step towards the design of policy portfolios to foster the green energy economy. However, today these assessments often fall short of including important determinants of the overall cost-benefit balance of such options by not including indirect costs and benefits, even though these can be game-changing. This is often due to the lack of adequate methodologies. The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive account of the key methodological challenges to the assessment of the multiple impacts of energy options, and an initial menu of potential solutions to address these challenges. The paper first provides evidence for the importance of the multiple impacts of energy actions in the assessment of low-carbon options. The paper identifies a few key challenges to the evaluation of the co-impacts of low-carbon options and demonstrates that these are more complex for co-impacts than for the direct ones. Such challenges include several layers of additionality, high context dependency, and accounting for distributional effects. The paper continues by identifying the key challenges to the aggregation of multiple impacts including the risks of overcounting while taking into account the multitude of interactions among the various co-impacts. The paper proposes an analytical framework that can help address these and frame a systematic assessment of the multiple impacts.

Description: This study conducted by Wuppertal Institute and Germanwatch explores how the social pillar of sustainability at the local level could be met in Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) projects. For this purpose, the authors evaluate the livelihood dimension of CSP technology based on a case study conducted on the 160 MW pilot CSP plant Nooro I in Ouarzazate, Morocco.

Description: The Greens / European Free Alliance Group of the European Parliament contracted Wuppertal Institute in collaboration with Energiaklub to develop scientifically sound, comprehensive, alternative, and sustainable long term energy scenarios for Hungary, which cover potential development paths till 2030 and 2050. The scenarios developed deliver information about the costs and long-term effects of different energy choices for Hungary as well as credible information on potential benefits of greening the energy mix. As a result, the study aims to provide policy makers with better evidence for making informed, prudent and forward-thinking decisions in this field.

Description: The European Horizon 2020-project COMBI ("Calculating and Operationalising the Multiple Benefits of Energy Efficiency in Europe") aims at estimating the energy and non-energy impacts that a realisation of the EU energy efficiency potential would have in the year 2030. The project goal is to cover the most important technical potentials identified for the EU27 by 2030 and to come up with consistent estimates for the most relevant impacts: air pollution (and its effects on human health, eco-systems/crops, buildings), social welfare (including disposable income, comfort, health and productivity), biotic and abiotic resources, the energy system and energy security and the macro economy (employment, economic growth and the public budget). This paper describes the overall project research design, envisaged methodologies, the most critical methodological challenges with such an ex-ante evaluation and with aggregating the multiple impacts. The project collects data for a set of 30 energy efficiency improvement actions grouped by energy services covering all sectors and EU countries. Based on this, multiple impacts will be quantified with separate methodological approaches, following methods used in the respective literature and developing them where necessary. The paper outlines the approaches taken by COMBI: socio-economic modelling for air pollution and social welfare, resource modelling for biotic/abiotic and economically unused resources, General Equilibrium modelling for long-run macroeconomic effects and other models for short-run effects, and the LEAP model for energy system modelling. Finally, impacts will be aggregated, where possible in monetary terms. Specific challenges of this step include double-counting issues, metrics, within and cross-country/regional variability of effects and context-specificity.

Description: The need for deep decarbonisation in the energy intensive basic materials industry is increasingly recognised. In light of the vast future potential for renewable electricity the implications of electrifying the production of basic materials in the European Union is explored in a what-if thought-experiment. Production of steel, cement, glass, lime, petrochemicals, chlorine and ammonia required 125 TW-hours of electricity and 851 TW-hours of fossil fuels for energetic purposes and 671 TW-hours of fossil fuels as feedstock in 2010. The resulting carbon dioxide emissions were equivalent to 9% of total greenhouse gas emissions in EU28. A complete shift of the energy demand as well as the resource base of feedstocks to electricity would result in an electricity demand of 1713 TW-hours about 1200 TW-hours of which would be for producing hydrogen and hydrocarbons for feedstock and energy purposes. With increased material efficiency and some share of bio-based materials and biofuels the electricity demand can be much lower. Our analysis suggest that electrification of basic materials production is technically possible but could have major implications on how the industry and the electric systems interact. It also entails substantial changes in relative prices for electricity and hydrocarbon fuels.

Description: This handbook was developed in the context of a joint project of the Wuppertal Institute and the Centre for Social Investment (CSI) called the System Innovation Lab. It combined sustainability transformation research insights with those of social innovation in order to design an on-the-job training and coaching that would enable participants to take a systemic approach to innovation and test what this means in their respective work settings. Focussing on the topic of sustainable energy futures in Europe it addressed young European leaders in government, the private sector and civil society working on energy issues and combined latest theoretical insights with novel innovation and leadership methods to spread the capacity and courage that transforming entire sectors requires.

Description: The increasing rate of renewable energies poses new challenges for industries: the amount of wind and solar energy is by far more subject to fluctuations than that of fossil based energy. Large production facilities from the aluminium, cement, steel or paper industry, however, depend on a highly secure energy supply. To which amount is a limitation of fluctuations possible? This was the key question of the project "Flexibilisation of Industries Enables Sustainable Energy systems", which was realised by the Wuppertal Institute in cooperation with the polymers company Covestro last year. In the final report, authors around project co-ordinator Karin Arnold not only show which technological and economic parameters have been considered, but also present possible business models to promote "flexibility products".

Description: The current utilisation of natural resources in Germany and Europe is not sustainable, as inter alia stated by the German government as well as by the European Commission. At the same time, increased resource efficiency could lead to various environmental but also economic benefits. This brief study commissioned by Changing Markets presents developments in the field of resource efficiency policies, analyses the status quo of resource consumption with a special focus on fast moving consumer goods and describes potential effects of resource conservations.

Description: Contrary to "static" pathways that are defined once for all, this article deals with the need for policy makers to adopt a dynamic adaptive policy pathway for managing decarbonization over the period of implementation. When choosing a pathway as the most desirable option, it is important to keep in mind that each decarbonization option relies on the implementation of specific policies and instruments. Given structural, effectiveness, and timing uncertainties specific to each policy option, they may fail in delivering the expected outcomes in time. The possibility of diverging from an initial decarbonization trajectory to another one without incurring excessive costs should therefore be a strategic element in the design of an appropriate decarbonization strategy. The article relies on initial experiences in France and Germany on decarbonization planning and implementation to define elements for managing dynamic adjustment issues. Such an adaptive pathway strategy should combine long-lived incentives, like a pre-announced escalating carbon price, to form consistent expectations, as well as adaptive policies to improve overall robustness and resilience. We sketch key elements of a monitoring process based on an ex ante definition of leading indicators that should be assessed regularly and combined with signposts and trigger values at the subsector level.

Description: The South African government started the development of a basic energy efficiency policy framework in 2005, including a voluntary label for refrigerators. This initial label was the intended precursor to a mandatory standards and labelling (S&L) programme, but the impacts achieved were only very limited. Based on this first experience, the South African Bureau of Standards (SABS) formed in 2008 a working group for the development of the new and more specific South African National Standard SANS 941. This standard identifies energy efficiency requirements, labelling and measurement methods as well as the maximum allowable standby power for a set of appliances as reliable basis for introducing a mandatory regulation. Nevertheless, due to many existing barriers, such as lack of funding and low priority assigned to the initiative, a very long period passed by between the S&L planning and final policy implementation. Finally, in November 2014, the South African government published mandatory performance standards coming into force in 2015/2016 for a first set of appliances consisting of refrigerators, washing machines, dryers, dishwashers, electric water heaters, ovens, A/C and heat pumps. To analyse the effectiveness of the new S&L programme and the potential influence of delays in the implementing process, the authors performed an immediate first-hand evaluation of the new policy. As analytical reference base for available energy efficiency potentials, results from bottom-up scenario calculations will be presented exemplarily as case study for cold appliances covered by the S&L programme. A retrospective market study will show market trends before policy implementation and compare results with the new mandatory requirements. For the further policy analysis, a programme theory approach will be applied, in order to better understand why, how and under what conditions the policy works. Relationships with other energy efficiency policies and measures as well as positive or negative effects will be described. Furthermore, cause-impact relationships will be analysed to explain the functioning of the policy. Finally, success and failure factors will illustrate what needs to be done to achieve the desired energy efficiency targets. Henceforth, even though this study does not assess the direct transferability of the South African S&L programme to other regions, its findings could be relevant and useful for countries planning the implementation of similar policies.

Description: In Germany, doubling today's insulation rate of about 1% is an important element for reaching the government's target of reducing the demand for energy in the housing sector by 80% by 2050. A survey among 275 private homeowners was conducted to better understand their insulation activity. The results were incorporated into an agent-based model, which was applied to evaluate new policy options. The results of the survey show that policies should focus on homeowners' wall insulation activity. Homeowners' decision-making processes regarding insulation are largely unaffected by their financial resources, which raises the question of the usefulness of financial incentives. In contrast, non-economic factors were found to have a statistically significant influence: in the year following a house ownership change, a comparatively large number of insulation projects are carried out. The probability of insulating walls can be predicted from knowing the homeowner's age, attitude towards insulation, and the structural condition of the walls. The simulations indicate that information instruments lead to a comparatively small increase in the wall insulation rate, while obligating new homeowners to insulate the walls within the first year after moving in has the potential to increase the total insulation rate by up to 40%.

Description: A future-oriented and sustainable "Leasing Society" is based on a combination of new and innovative serviceoriented business models, changed product and material ownership structures, increased and improved eco-design efforts, and reverse logistic structures. Together these elements have the potential to change the relationship between producers and consumers, and thereby create a new incentive structure in the economy regarding the use and re-use of resources. While the consumer in a leasing society buys a service (instead of a product), the producer in a leasing society retains the ownership of the product (instead of selling it) and sells the service of using the product. This creates producer incentives to re-use, remanufacture, and recycle products and materials and could become a cornerstone of the circular economy, depending on how the leasing society is implemented. While a predominantly positive picture of the success of a leasing society model and related business cases emerges from the bigger part of the available literature, this paper argues that the resource efficiency of respective business cases is highly dependent on the specific business case design. This paper develops a more cautious and differentiated definition of the leasing society by discussing relevant mechanisms and success factors of leasing society business cases. The leasing society is discussed from a micro business-oriented and a macro environment-oriented perspective complemented by a discussion of conditions for successful business models that reduce environmental impacts and resource footprints.

Description: Heating behavior of households is key for reducing domestic energy demand and mitigating climate change. Recently, various technical devices have been developed, providing households with feedback on their heating behavior and supporting energy conservation behavior. The impact of such devices on overall energy consumption depends on (1) the impact of a device within a household, (2) the diffusion of devices to other households and the number of adopters, and (3) the diffusion of the induced behavioral change beyond these households. While the first two processes are currently established in assessments of sustainable household devices, we suggest that adding behavior diffusion is essential when assessing devices that explicitly target behavioral change. We therefore propose an assessment framework that includes all three processes. We implement this framework in an agent-based model by combining two existing simulation models to explore the effect of adding behavior diffusion. In three simulation experiments, we identify two mechanisms by which behavior diffusion (1) spreads the effect of such devices from adopters to non-adopters and (2) increases the average speed of behavioral change of households. From these results we conclude that behavior diffusion should be included in assessments of behavior-changing feedback devices.

Description: How can renewable energy sources be efficiently integrated into the North African electricity systems? By using techno-economic modeling methods, this book explores optimized electricity system expansion pathways until the year 2030 for the five North African countries - Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt. The results indicate that renewable energy integration is actually a viable business case for the entire region, if wind and solar capacities are properly planned in conjunction with the conventional generation system and under consideration of the country-specific electricity supply-/demand patterns. Further aspects featured in this publication are the impact of renewable power on the transnational electricity transmission system and the question how decision making processes about renewable energy strategies can be improved in the North African context. The book is a contribution to the scientific literature about energy issues in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), but also seeks to address political and industrial practitioners concerned with the development of the region's renewable energy future.

Description: Water pumping systems powered by solar and wind energy are a clean, decentralized and economic alternative for the irrigation of crops. The intense droughts experienced in the last years in Northern Colombia due to particularly strong Nino Phenomena have reactivated the need of reliable water pumping irrigation systems in that region. This study aims to assess the techno economic feasibility of solar and wind based pumping irrigation system, taking as case study the Municipality of Piojo in the Atlantico department. In the first stage of the study the irrigation water requirements were determined by using the software CROPWAT based on two different crop patterns that represent existing feasible alternatives for small farmers of the region: i) a common crop pattern, which represent the current average distribution of crops for subsistence farming and ii) a fruit cash crop pattern that comprises crops for which well established markets in the region exist. Solar wind and diesel based pumping systems were sized based on the crop water demands for 1 ha. The unit irrigation costs of the three technologies, the two crop patterns and the three irrigation methods (surface, sprinkler and drip) were calculated and compared. The economical analysis was complemented with a cost-benefit analysis over 20 years. Our results show that both renewable energy based pumping systems (wind and solar) can cover the irrigation water demands of small farmers in the region. The economical analysis shows that windmills are the most cost effective solution followed by the solar pumping system. Diesel pumping system was the less cost effective, even though it does not comprise investment in water storage tank. The cost benefit analysis demonstrates that any irrigation system is financially unfeasible when providing water to a common crop pattern. In case of the fruit cash crop scenario the highest dividends were obtained by the wind pumping system and the lowest dividends by the diesel pumping system. The lowest payback period was obtained by the windmill after 7 years and could be even feasible after the fifth year if the surplus water would be used to irrigate larger areas. Dividends obtained in a fruit cash crop scenario with irrigation after 20 years were in the range of EUR 5200 and EUR 11200 higher than dividends obtained by the same crop pattern but without irrigation.

Description: Measuring progress towards sustainable development requires appropriate frameworks and databases. The System of Environmental-Economic Accounts (SEEA) is undergoing continuous refinement with these objectives in mind. In SEEA, there is a need for databases to encompass the global dimension of societal metabolism. In this paper, we focus on the latest effort to construct a global multi-regional input-output database (EXIOBASE) with a focus on environmentally relevant activities. The database and its broader analytical framework allows for the as yet most detailed insight into the production-related impacts and "footprints" of our consumption. We explore the methods used to arrive at the database, and some key relationships extracted from the database.

Description: Consumption-based CO2 emissions, which are commonly calculated by means of environmentally extended input-output analysis, are gaining wider recognition as a way to complement territorial emission inventories. Although their use has increased significantly in the last years, insufficient attention has been paid to the methodological soundness of the underlying environmental extension. This should follow the internationally agreed accounting rules of the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting, which addresses the activities undertaken by the residents of a country, independent from where these take place. Nonetheless, some footprint calculations use extensions that account for all the activities within the territory, which leads to methodological inconsistencies. Thus, this article introduces the most relevant conceptual differences between these accounting frameworks and shows the magnitude of the gap between them building on the data generated for the EXIOBASE model. It concludes that the differences are high for many countries and their magnitude is increasing over time.

Description: The rising global demand for metals in a context of declining ore grades is driving the opening of new mines and the expansion of existing ones, disturbing substantial land areas (especially by open pits). However, how much land is currently disturbed globally? How much land could be disturbed by metal mining in 2050? This study investigates the global area disturbed by mining of iron, bauxite, copper, gold, and silver for the first time. The first part consists of the calculation of the specific land requirements, i.e. the area newly disturbed caused by the ore extraction at the mine site. The second part addresses the global area disturbed in the year 2011 whereas the third presents scenarios of how such area might evolve until 2050. The last part addresses the current and future pressures on global biodiversity by metal mines and shows possibilities for the future opening of new mines in low biodiversity areas, alleviating pressures in high biodiversity ones. This study presents the findings of the author´s dissertation hoping they are used as a frame to develop policies and incentives to reduce the amount of area directly disturbed by mines and their pressures on biodiversity.

Description: The paper presents a case study of applying crowdsourcing to library deliveries. The trial was conducted in the city of Jyväskylä in Finland as part of the Resource Wise Communities program funded by The Finnish Innovation Fund Sitra. The city has a population of 120 000 inhabitants and is facing the shut-down of half of the public libraries in order to adapt its economy to lowered revenues and compulsory cost savings. The assumption was that the level of service for customers not able to settle for e-books would be lowered and/or customers would have to travel longer distances. However, a research pilot was carried out where - instead of lowering the level of service in the area - books and other library media were delivered to customers' homes by utilizing a novel crowdsourced delivery service called PiggyBaggy. Crowdsourced delivery means that citizens deliver goods to each other along their way. Ideally, the deliveries would be made with minimal detour, along the way, thus maximizing the reduction in natural resource use and related environmental impacts from the transport. However, the transport fuel forms only one part of the overall footprint and in practice rebound effects such as drivers travelling longer distances motivated by monetary compensation, can reduce the targeted environmental improvement. The objective of our study was to investigate whether an existing consumer service, in this case the library public service, can adopt crowdsourced deliveries quickly from scratch, and to whether consumers participate in the deliveries in a way that has real sustainability benefits. Despite prevailing regulative challenges, the study found that existing library deliveries can be successfully crowdsourced. Each crowdsourced delivery reduced an average of 1.6 kilometers driven by car, despite 80 percent of the deliveries being made within less than a five-kilometer distance. Mobility related footprint reduction potential for Finland is also estimated.

Description: Objective: The aim of the present article is to conduct an integrated assessment in order to explore whether CCS could be a viable technological option for significantly reducing future CO2 emissions in China. Methods: In this paper, an integrated approach covering five assessment dimensions is chosen. Each dimension is investigated using specific methods (graphical abstract). Results: The most crucial precondition that must be met is a reliable storage capacity assessment based on site-specific geological data. Our projection of different trends of coal-based power plant capacities up to 2050 ranges between 34 and 221 Gt of CO2 that may be captured from coal-fired power plants to be built by 2050. If very optimistic assumptions about the country’s CO2 storage potential are applied, 192 Gt of CO2 could theoretically be stored as a result of matching these sources with suitable sinks. If a cautious approach is taken, this figure falls to 29 Gt of CO2. In practice, this potential will decrease further with the impact of technical, legal, economic and social acceptance factors. Further constraints may be the delayed commercial availability of CCS in China; a significant barrier to achieving the economic viability of CCS due to a currently non-existing nation-wide CO2 pricing scheme that generates a sufficiently strong price signal; an expected life-cycle reduction rate of the power plant's greenhouse gas emissions of 59-60%; and an increase in most other negative environmental and social impacts. Conclusion and practice implications: Most experts expect a striking dominance of coal-fired power generation in the country's electricity sector, even if the recent trend towards a flattened deployment of coal capacity and reduced annual growth rates of coal-fired generation proves to be true in the future. In order to reduce fossil fuel-related CO2 emissions to a level that would be consistent with the long-term climate protection target of the international community to which China is increasingly committing itself, this option may require the introduction of CCS. However, a precondition for opting for CCS would be finding robust solutions to the constraints highlighted in this article. Furthermore, a comparison with other low-carbon technology options may be useful in drawing completely valid conclusions on the economic, ecological and social viability of CCS in a low-carbon policy environment. The assessment dimensions should be integrated into macro-economic optimisation models by combining qualitative with quantitative modelling, and the flexible operation of CCS power plants should be analysed in view of a possible role of CCS for balancing fluctuating renewable energies.

Description: Jordan's electricity system has and continues to experience considerable pressures for reform due to continuous increase of electricity demand combined with high dependency on imported fossil fuels and a partially subsidised electricity market. In this paper we use the transitions pathways to examine and analyse pressures on the regime in relation to plausible future developments of particular niches such as renewable energy technologies. Our analysis is methodologically distinct in that we explicitly identify mechanisms operating in the system and relate those to existing scenarios to assess future developments. Currently, we see future developments being sensitive to the actions of key regime actors.

Description: The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) is a collaborative global initiative led by IDDRI and SDSN that aims to demonstrate how individual countries can transition to a low-carbon economy preferably consistent with the internationally agreed target of limiting the increase in global temperature to less than 2°C. Achieving this target will require a profound transformation of energy systems by mid-century, a "deep decarbonization". The project comprises 16 research teams composed of leading institutions from the world's largest GHG emitting countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, United Kingdom, and United States. Each team is exploring what is required to achieve this transformation in their own country's economy while taking into account socio-economic conditions, development aspirations, infrastructure stocks, natural resource endowments, and other relevant factors. The DDPP country study for Germany explores what is required to achieve deep decarbonization in Germany. It has been conducted by the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, with the support of Stiftung Mercator. The study discusses how the German government's target of reducing domestic GHG emissions by 80 to 95% by 2050 (versus 1990) can be reached.

Description: China is very active in the research and development of CO2 capture and storage technologies (CCS). However, existing estimates for CO2 storage capacity are very uncertain. This uncertainty is due to limited geological knowledge, a lack of large-scale research on CO2 injection, and different assessment approaches and parameter settings. Hence storage scenarios represent a method that can be used by policy makers to demonstrate the range of possible storage capacity developments, to help interpret uncertain results and to identify the limitations of existing assessments. In this paper, three storage scenarios are developed for China by evaluating China-wide studies supplemented with more detailed site- and basin-specific assessments. It is estimated that the greatest storage potential can be found in deep saline aquifers. Oil and gas fields may also be used. Coal seams are only included in the highest storage scenario. In total, the scenarios presented demonstrate that China has an effective storage capacity of between 65 and 1551 Gt of CO2. Furthermore, the authors emphasise a need for action to harmonise storage capacity assessment approaches due to the uncertainties involved in the capacity assessments analysed in this study.

Description: The climate impact of the iron and steel industry can be mitigated through increased energy efficiency, emission efficiency, material efficiency, and product use efficiency resulting in reduced product demand. For achieving ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation targets in this sector all measures could become necessary. The current paper focuses on one of those four key measures: emission efficiency via innovative primary steelmaking technologies. After analysing their techno-economical potential until 2100 in part A of this publication, the current research broadens the evaluation scope for the crucial year 2050, based on a Multicriteria-Analysis (MCA). 12 criteria from five different categories ("technology", "society and politics", "economy", "safety and vulnerability" and "ecology") are used to assess the same four future steelmaking technologies in a systematic and holistic way in Germany, as one possible location. The technologies in focus are the blast furnace route (BF-BOF), blast furnace with carbon capture and storage (BF-CCS), hydrogen direct reduction (H-DR), and iron ore electrolysis (EW). These four technologies have been selected, as explained in part A of this paper, because they are the most commonly discussed technological options under discussion by policymakers and the iron and steel industry. The results of the current work should provide decision makers in industry and government with a long-term guidance on technological choices. In 2050 the MCA shows significantly higher preference scores for the two innovative routes H-DR and EW compared to the blast furnace based routes. The main reasons being higher scores in the economical and environmental criteria. BF-CCS shows its greatest weakness in the social acceptance and the safety and vulnerability criteria. BF-BOF has the lowest economy and ecology score of all assessed routes, which is due to the projected high cost for carbon dioxide emission and increasing prices for fossil fuels. A first indicative trend assessment from today towards 2050 shows that H-DR is the preferred MCA option from today on. Three exemplary weighting distributions (representing the perspectives of the steel industry, environmental organisations and the government), used to simulate different stakeholder angle of view, don't have a strong influence on the overall evaluation of the steelmaking routes. The results remain very similar, with the highest scores for the innovative routes (H-DR and EW). This leads to the conclusion that EW and in particular H-DR can be identified as the preferred future steelmaking technology across different perspectives. Specific innovation efforts and dedicated programs are necessary to minimize the time until marketability and to share the development burden. The similarity of the MCA results from different perspectives indicates a great opportunity to reach a political consensus and to work together towards a common future goal. Regarding the pressing time horizon a concentrated engagement for one (or few) technological choices would be highly recommended.

Description: Energy systems with high shares of renewable electricity are feasible, but require balancing measures such as storage, grid exchange or demand-side management to maintain system stability. The demand for these balancing options cannot be assessed separately since they influence each other. Therefore, a model was developed to analyze these mutual dependencies by optimizing a concerted use of balancing technologies. This model is presented here. It covers the European electricity system in hourly resolution. Since this leads to a large optimization problem, several options for reducing system complexity are presented. The application of the model is illustrated with a case study outlining the effects of pumped hydro storage and controlled charging of electric vehicles in central Europe.

Description: The EU has set itself ambitious targets with regards to a significant reduction of its greenhouse gas emissions and has presented roadmaps depicting an overall decarbonisation of its economy by the middle of the century. In this context European policymakers and stakeholders are currently discussing the targets and the level of ambition of the 2030 climate and energy policy framework. The Commission is expected to present its own vision for the further development of the energy and climate policy framework in its White Paper "For a 2030 climate and energy policy framework". At this decisive point in the political debate the Wuppertal Institute presents a brief working paper that analyses some of the analytical work - particularly the underlying energy and GHG emission scenarios - behind the Commission's proposals to be presented in the forthcoming White Paper.

Description: The main objective of AIRP-SD was to address the urgent need to stimulate innovation in Research, Technological development and Demonstration (RTD) processes in order to enhance the prospects of RTD contributing positively to processes and strategies leading to radical improvements in the sustainability of production-consumption systems. This Milestone One Report was the first of three status reports, summarising the interim findings of the first three work packages since the start of the project in January 2002.

Description: The bioeconomy is gaining growing attention as a perceived win-win strategy for environment and economy in the EU. However, the EU already has a disproportionately high global cropland footprint compared to the world average, and uses more cropland than domestically available to supply its demand for agricultural products. There is a risk that uncontrolled growth of the bioeconomy will increase land use pressures abroad. For that reason, a monitoring system is needed to account for the global land use of European consumption. The aim of this paper is to take a closer look at the tools needed to monitor global cropland footprints, as well as the targets needed to benchmark development. This paper reviews recent developments in land footprint accounting approaches and applies the method of global land use accounting to calculate the global cropland footprint of the EU-27 for the years between 2000 and 2011. It finds a slight decrease in per capita cropland footprints over the past decade (of around 1% annually, reaching 0.29 ha/cap in 2011) and advocates promoting a further decrease in per capita cropland requirements (of around 2% annually) to reach global land use targets for keeping consumption within the safe operating space of planetary boundaries by 2030. It argues that strategic land reduction targets may still go hand in hand with the growth of a smart, innovative and sustainable bioeconomy by reinforcing the need for policies that support greater efficiency across the life-cycle and reduce wasteful and excessive consumption practices. Recommendations for further improving land footprint accounting are given.

Description: The paper reflects the hypothesis that those technological and institutional innovations survive which extend the safe operating range (SOR) of the Humans-Technologies-Institutions (HTI) system (e.g. companies, cities, regions and countries). The multidimensional SOR of a country comprises in particular safe livelihood, quality of life, security, monetary stability, supply security and quality of the environment. A "mechanism of progress" is described involving the search for higher safety and independence of constraints. With innovation and learning in a key role, the mechanism leads to a relative decoupling of resource use and economic value added and a growing share of knowledge generation in the economy. Competition of HTI systems for scarce resources may lead to independence strategies such as enhanced resource efficiency. It may also lead to cooperation of competing HTI systems facilitated by new institutions thus forming an HTI system at higher level of complexity. While the consortium could coordinate their resource consumption within the boundaries of safe operating space, the partner HTI systems would further expand their SOR. Data is provided that net resource importing countries have developed higher material productivity thus increasing their independence from resource supply, and countries with such capability have gained higher innovation capacity.

Description: This paper sums up the recent developments in concepts and methods being used to measure the impacts of cities on environmental sustainability. It differentiates between a dominant trend in research literature that concentrates on the accounting and allocation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy use to cities, and a re-emergence of studies focusing on the direct and indirect urban material and resource flows. The availability of reliable data and standard protocols is greater in the GHG accounting field and continues to grow rapidly.

Description: Small-scale residential biomass combustion for space heating and warm water production already holds a considerable share on overall energy production from biomass in Europe. In the existing regulative framework of EU air quality and climate protection targets, an extended usage of renewable biomass heating without an increase of harmful emissions is urgently needed. In this context, the FP7 project "EU-UltraLowDust" (ULD) aimed at the demonstration of highly efficient and ultra-low emission small-scale biomass combustion technologies and the development of supporting policy recommendations. New combustion technology operating at almost zero particulate matter (PM) emissions has been demonstrated, rivalling even the performance of state-of-the-art natural gas fuelled systems. In this context, the authors analysed EU policy options for a faster diffusion of these new innovative technologies. The analysis presented in this paper is based on results from an original impact assessment with special focus on energy efficiency and emission scenarios, including the potential effects of a broad deployment of the new ULD technologies as well as the early replacement of poor performing existing installations. As the derived results show that major shares of energy consumption and emissions from residential biomass combustion in the EU are caused by old heating systems, specific policy measures for new and existing installations have been analysed. Following this, a recommended and harmonized policy package for new Small Combustion Installations (SCI) to be put on the market as well as for existing SCI in the stock has been developed, which will be presented in this paper. The basic policy package addresses new installations and consists of a two-step approach, aiming at enhancing the current and forthcoming policies addressing the SCI market in Europe. A complementary second policy package for existing installations aims specifically at the early replacement of SCI already installed in the stock, which are characterized by low efficiency and high emissions.

Description: The field of nutrition will face numerous challenges in coming decades; these arise from changing lifestyles and global consumption patterns accompanied by a high use of resources. Against this background, this paper presents a newly designed tool to decrease the effect on nutrition, the so-called Nutritional Footprint. The tool is based on implementing the concept of a sustainable diet in decision-making processes, and supporting a resource-light society. The concept integrates four indicators in each of the two nutrition-related fields of health and environment, and condenses them into an easily communicable result, which limits its results to one effect level. Applied to eight lunch meals, the methodology and its calculations procedures are presented in detail. The results underline the general scientific view of food products; animal-protein based meals are more relevant considering their health and environmental effects. The concept seems useful for consumers to evaluate their own choices, and companies to expand their internal data, their benchmarking processes, or their external communication performance. Methodological shortcomings and the interpretation of results are discussed, and the conclusion shows the tools' potential for shaping transition processes, and for the reduction of natural resource use by supporting food suppliers' and consumers' decisions and choice.

Description: The CO2 utilisation is discussed as one of the future low-carbon technologies in order to accomplish a full decarbonisation in the energy intensive industry. CO2 is separated from the flue gas stream of power plants or industrial plants and is prepared for further processing as raw material. CO2 containing gas streams from industrial processes exhibit a higher concentration of CO2 than flue gases from power plants; consequentially, industrial CO2 sources are used as raw material for the chemical industry and for the synthesis of fuel on the output side. Additionally, fossil resources can be replaced by substitutes of reused CO2 on the input side. If set up in a right way, this step into a CO2-based circular flow economy could make a contribution to the decarbonisation of the industrial sector and according to the adjusted potential, even rudimentarily to the energy sector. In this study, the authors analyse potential CO2 sources, the potential demand and the range of applications of CO2. In the last chapter of the final report, they give recommendations for research, development, politics and economics for an appropriate future designing of CO2 utilisation options based upon their previous analysis.

Description: Prospects for the integration of power markets and the expansion of renewable energy have recently triggered a number of publications dealing with transformation scenarios of the North African electricity systems. This paper compares five studies using economic electricity supply- and demand models to assess possible development pathways of the North African power systems from today until 2030 and 2050. The analysis shows that distinct modeling methodologies as well as different approaches to scenario design and parameter assumptions can strongly influence the studies' results, leading to very heterogenous projections of North Africa's power generation structures as well as the patterns of electricity exchange with other regions, like Europe. Common findings of the studies are that the surplus costs of capital-intensive renewable energy expansion in North Africa can in most cases be offset by avoided fuel costs and avoided investments in conventional power plants. All studies further agree that increased transnational cooperation, notably in terms of market integration and cross-border power exchanges, can bring about important economic advantages for the North African power sector. Renewable energy expansion could also drive electricity exports to Europe, but in integrated power market schemes, such exports only become viable with a very high share of renewable energy exceeding 60% of the North African power demand.

Description: The efficiency strategy to exploit the potential for energy savings in buildings still is applied rather slowly in most countries. In addition, there are indications that energy savings are partly compensated particularly by wealth but also rebound effects, the "empty nest" (persistence of elderly people and couples in family homes), and cohort effects (e.g. vintages of people or buildings). In Germany, as in other European countries, the existing trend in housing is a continuously growing floor space per capita. Over the last decades it expanded from about 20 m2 in 1960 to currently 45 m2 per person. Forecasts expect a further increase to more than 50 m2 per person. Obviously, more floor space needs more energy for space heating and cooling, ventilation, and lighting, but it also allows the household to operate more and or bigger appliances, all of which increase energy consumption. On the other hand, housing projects emerge offering relatively small private living spaces in combination with various shared spaces to use. Many of them are based on private initiatives. But what is the motivation behind it? And is there a higher need for new living concepts in the future? The proposed paper presents main drivers of increasing floor space per capita in Germany and discusses the question if more space is necessary for higher comfort. It presents different examples of housing concepts that strive to achieve good living with less space and suggests a "building typology of sufficiency". Finally, the paper discusses qualitatively to which extent these housing concepts can lead to less energy use and emissions. In this way sufficiency could be best friend with efficiency and tackle wealth, rebound, and other effects that counter-act efficiency progress. But therefore, as the paper concludes, politics and policies should recognise sufficiency as a field of action instead of referring to individual decisions and lifestyles.

Description: A lack of proper treatment infrastructure and sufficient capacity for municipal solid waste (MSW) treatment is a crucial barrier for the environmentally sound management of waste. However, overcapacities, especially for waste incineration, also have to be taken into account regarding their potential impacts on recycling markets and waste treatment prices. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of existing MSW incineration plants and their capacities within Europe. In combination with the analysis of imports and exports of MSW for incineration, it provides an indication of over- and undercapacities for incineration plants. Among other things, the results show that in six of the 32 countries analysed in this study, capacities exceed more than 50% of the annual waste generation, while in two countries the total amount of waste generated annually is not enough to fill all the incineration plants.

Description: Due to significant success in technology development and cost reductions, the electricity system is now widely perceived as the part of the energy system to be first in decarbonisation. This means a double challenge for the system: Firstly, it will undergo significant change due to rapidly increasing shares of fluctuating renewable generation; Secondly, there will be an expansion of electricity into other fields of the energy system such as heat generation and transport.

Description: Energy storage is one option to provide the electricity grid with flexibility. Short-term storage can provide system services for power quality, whereas medium-term storage allows to shift significant amounts of energy over some hours up to days. Seasonal or long-term storage can, for example, be provided by the power-to-gas technology. Significant amounts of storage will be necessary, especially when a fully renewable supply is approached. New mechanisms are needed to ensure anticipatorily that sufficient flexibility is in the system at any time.

Description: For a long time, water shortages and flooding have been challenges in many parts of China. Meanwhile, the Chinese government announced the change of water management from engineering-oriented approach towards integrated approach in the last decades. However, the announced changes in management approach does not necessarily lead to the wide implementation of institutions, infrastructures and practice. They can be confronted by a strong resistance from the existing management approach. In fact, the development of water resources management is a complex process. Such a complexity raise the following questions: did fundamental changes really take place in the structure of water supply and demand management and flood management in China? If yes, how? In order to answer this question, the author (1) developed conceptual frameworks to enable a detailed and precise analysis of regime development; (2)applied the elaborated conceptual frameworks to explore the development of the water resources management regime in China, at the example of three case studies. These three case studies were: - Flood Management (IFM) took place in the Dongting Lake Area in the middle Yangtze River, - Water allocation in the Yellow River Basin, - The experimentation period of Water Saving Society in China. With the support of the developed framework, the case studies show that fundamental changes, i.e. transitions, have taken place in flood management regime and water supply-demand regime in China, but transitions have not yet completed, due to, namely, the lack of reconfiguration of other regime components and other relevant regimes. In addition, the case studies also depict how the start of transitions were triggered and how informal learning processes influenced regime development. The thesis contributed to sustainability transitions research by developing an operational approach to analyze transitions of water resource management regime and by expanding the empirical basis for transitions research to natural resources management regime in emerging economies.