ALBERT

Anmerkung: Contents Contributors Part I. Alaska's Past and Present Environment 1. The Conceptual Basis of LTER Studies in the Alaskan Boreal Forest / F. Stuart Chapin III, john Yarie, Keith Van Cleve, and Leslie A. Viereck 2. Regional Overview of Interior Alaska / James E. Beget, David Stone, and David L Verbyla 3. State Factor Control of Soil Formation in Interior Alaska / Chien-Lu Ping, Richard D. Boone, Marcus H. Clark, Edmond C. Packee, and David K. Swanson 4. Climate and Permafrost Dynamics of the Alaskan Boreal Forest / Larry D. Hinzman, Leslie A. Viereck, Phyllis C. Adams, Vladimir E. Romanovsky, and Kenji Yoshikawa 5. Holocene Development of the Alaskan Boreal Forest / Andrea H. Lloyd, Mary E. Edwards, Bruce P. Finney, Jason A. Lynch, Valerie Barber, and Nancy H. Bigelow Part II. Forest Dynamics 6. Floristic Diversity and Vegetation Distribution in the Alaskan Boreal Forest / F. Stuart Chapin III, Teresa Hollingsworth, David F. Murray, Leslie A. Viereck, and Marilyn D. Walker 7. Successional Processes in the Alaskan Boreal Forest / F. Stuart Chapin III, Leslie A. Viereck, Phyllis C. Adams, Keith Van Cleve, Christopher L. Fastie, Robert A. Ott, Daniel Mann, and Jill F. Johnstone 8. Mammalian Herbivore Population Dynamics in the Alaskan Boreal Forest / Eric Rexstad and Knut Kielland 9. Dynamics of Phytophagous Insects and Their Pathogens in Alaskan Boreal Forests / Richard A. Werner, Kenneth F. Raffa, and Barbara L. Illman 10. Running Waters of the Alaskan Boreal Forest / Mark W. Oswood, Nicholas F. Hughes, and Alexander M. Milner Part III. Ecosystem Dynamics 11. Controls over Forest Production in Interior Alaska / John Yarie and Keith Van Cleve 12. The Role of Fine Roots in the Functioning of Alaskan Boreal Forests / Roger W. Ruess, Ronald L. Hendrick, Jason C. Vogel, and Bjartmar Sveinbjornsson 13. Mammalian Herbivory, Ecosystem Engineering, and Ecological Cascades in Alaskan Boreal Forests / Knut Kielland, John P. Bryant, and Roger W. Ruess 14. Microbial Processes in the Alaskan Boreal Forest / Joshua P. Schimel and F. Stuart Chapin III 15. Patterns of Biogeochemistry in Alaskan Boreal Forests / David W. Valentine, Knut Kielland, F. Stuart Chapin III, A. David McCuire, and Keith Van Cleve Part IV. Changing Regional Processes 16. Watershed Hydrology and Chemistry in the Alaskan Boreal Forest: The Central Role of Permafrost / Larry D. Hinzman, W. Robert Bolton, Kevin C. Petrone, Jeremy B. Jones, and Phyllis C. Adams 17. Fire Trends in the Alaskan Boreal Forest / Eric S. Kasischke, T. Scott Rupp, and David L. Verbyla 18. Timber Harvest in Interior Alaska / Tricia L. Wurtz, Robert A. Ott, and John C. Maisch 19. Climate Feedbacks in the Alaskan Boreal Forest / A. David McCuire and F. Stuart Chapin III 20. Communication of Alaskan Boreal Science with Broader Communities / Elena B. Sparrow, Janice C. Dawe, and F. Stuart Chapin III 21. Summary and Synthesis: Past and Future Changes in the Alaskan Boreal Forest / F. Stuart Chapin III, A. David McCuire, Roger W. Ruess, Marilyn W. Walker, Richard D. Boone, Mary E. Edwards, Bruce P. Finney, Larry D. Hinzman, Jeremy B. Jones, Clenn P. Juday, Eric S. Kasischke, Knut Kielland, Andrea H. Lloyd, Mark W. Oswood, Chien-Lu Ping, Eric Rexstad, Vladimir E. Romanovsky, Joshua P. Schimel, Elena B. Sparrow, Bjartmar Sveinbjornsson, David W. Valentine, Keith Van Cleve, David L. Verbyla, Leslie A. Viereck, Richard A. Werner, Tricia L. Wurtz, and John Yarie Index

Anmerkung: Contents Preface Part I Anatomy of a cyclone 1 Anatomy of a cyclone 1.1 A 'typical' extra-tropical cyclone 1.2 Describing the atmosphere 1.3 Air masses and fronts 1.4 The structure of a typical extra-tropical cyclone Review questions 2 Mathematical methods in fluid dynamics 2.1 Scalars and vectors 2.2 The algebra of vectors 2.3 Scalar and vector fields 2.4 Coordinate systems on the Earth 2.5 Gradients of vectors 2.6 Line and surface integrals 2.7 Eulerian and Lagrangian frames of reference 2.8 Advection Review questions 3 Properties of fluids 3.1 Solids, liquids, and gases 3.2 Thermodynamic properties of air 3.3 Composition of the atmosphere 3.4 Static stability 3.5 The continuum hypothesis 3.6 Practical assumptions 3.7 Continuity equation Review questions 4 Fundamental forces 4.1 Newton's second law: F=ma 4.2 Body, surface, and line forces 4.3 Forces in an inertial reference frame 4.4 Forces in a rotating reference frame 4.5 The Navier-Stokes equations Review questions 5 Scale analysis 5.1 Dimensional homogeneity 5.2 Scales 5.3 Non-dimensional parameters 5.4 Scale analysis 5.5 The geostrophic approximation Review questions 6 Simple steady motion 6.1 Natural coordinate system 6.2 Balanced flow 6.3 The Boussinesq approximation 6.4 The thermal wind 6.5 Departures from balance Review questions 7 Circulation and vorticity 7.1 Circulation 7.2 Vorticity 7.3 Conservation of potential vorticity 7.4 An introduction to the vorticity equation Review questions 8 Simple wave motions 8.1 Properties of waves 8.2 Perturbation analysis 8.3 Planetary waves Review questions 9 Extra-tropical weather systems 9.1 Fronts 9.2 Frontal cyclones 9.3 Baroclinic instability Review questions Part II Atmospheric phenomena 10 Boundary layers 10.1 Turbulence 10.2 Reynolds decomposition 10.3 Generation of turbulence 10.4 Closure assumptions Review questions 11 Clouds and severe weather 11.1 Moist processes in the atmosphere 11.2 Air mass thunderstorms 11.3 Multi-cell thunderstorms 11.4 Supercell thunderstorms and tornadoes 11.5 Mesoscale convective systems Review questions 12 Tropical weather 12.1 Scales of motion 12.2 Atmospheric oscillations 12.3 Tropical cyclones Review questions 13 Mountain weather 13.1 Internal gravity waves 13.2 Flow over mountains 13.3 Downslope windstorms Review questions 14 Polar weather 14.1 Katabatic winds 14.2 Barrier winds 14.3 Polar lows Review questions 15 Epilogue: the general circulation 15.1 Fueled by the Sun 15.2 Radiative-convective equilibrium 15.3 The zonal mean circulation 15.4 The angular momentum budget 15.5 The energy cycle Appendix A - symbols Appendix Β - constants and units Bibliography Index

Anmerkung: Zum Teil in kyrillischer Schrift. , Text in russischer, englischer und französischer Sprache

Anmerkung: Contents Preface 1 The evidence for cryospheric change 1.1 Introduction 1.2 The geomorphic and hydrologic effects of cryospheric change 1.3 Sub-arctic and alpine hydrology 1.4 Glacier loss and mountain permafrost 1.5 Permafrost 1.6 The carbon balance of the cryosphere 1.7 River and lake ice break-up and freeze-up 1.8 Ocean circulation 1.9 The mass balance of the polar ice sheets 1.10 Sea level 1.11 Importance of sea ice. 1.12 Ecological impacts 1.13 Socio-economic effects 1.14 Conclusions (Text word count-including figure captions and tables but excluding references- 9,015) 2 The monitoring of cryospheric change 2.1 Introduction 2.2 In situ measurements 2.2.1 Land surface air temperature 2.2.2 Terrestrial snow and snow on sea ice 2.2.3 Sea ice 2.2.4 Ice sheets and alpine glaciers 2.2.5 Permafrost and seasonally frozen ground 2.2.6 River runoff 2.2.7 River and lake ice freeze-up and break-up 2.3 Conclusions 3 Processes of cryospheric change 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Snow and ice as energy regulators 3.2.1 The energetics of the snow surface 3.2.2 The energetics of the snowpack 3.2.3 The energetics of glaciers 3.2.4 The energetics of sea ice and various terrain types 3.2.5 Permafrost 3.3 Snow and ice reservoir functions 3.3.1 Mass budget for snow 3.3.2 Mass balance for glacier ice 3.3.3 The mass balance of an ice sheet 3.3.4 Mass balance of sea ice 3.4 Snowfall 3.4.1 Interception by vegetation 3.4.2 Snow accumulation 3.4.3 Snow cover structure 3.5 Snow avalanches 3.6 Snow melt, runoff and streamflow generation 3.7 Snow chemistry 3.8 Snow ecology 3.9 Glacier melt 3.10 Formation of an ice cover 3.11 River and lake ice 3.12 Sediment budgets 4 Patterns of the contemporary cryosphere at local to global scales 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Remote sensing observations 4.3 Land and sea surface temperature 4.3.1 Terrestrial snow and snow on sea ice 4.3.2 Sea ice 4.3.3 Ice sheets & glaciers: estimation of volume 4.3.4 Ice sheets & glaciers: mass balance components 4.3.5 Permafrost 4.3.6 River runoff 4.3.7 River and lake ice freeze-up/break-up 4.4 Numerical Models 4.5 Conclusions: validation, coordinated projects and climate data records 5 The evidence for past cryospheric changes 5.1 Introduction 5.2 The uniqueness of the Quaternary Period 5.3. Initiation of glacial ages 5.4 Reconstructing extent of glacial environments 5.5 Extreme events 5.6 Ice sheet modelling 5.6.1 The Antarctic Ice Sheet 5.6.2 Greenland 5.6.3 North America: Innuitian, Laurentide and Cordilleran ice sheets 5.6.4 British Isles, Scandinavian and Barents ice sheets 5.6.5 The Patagonian and New Zealand ice caps 5.7 Non-glacial Quaternary environments 5.7.1 Late Quaternary permafrost in North America and Europe 5.7.2 Treeline variations 5.7.3 Climatic snowline 5.7.4 Glacier fluctuations 5.7.5 Paraglaciation 6 The transience of the cryosphere and transitional landscapes 6.1 Introduction 6.1.1 The landscape as palimpsest 6.2 Glacial landscapes: macro scale 6.2.1 Cirque landscapes 6.2.2 Fjord and strandflat landscapes 6.3 Periglacial landscapes: macro-scale 6.4 Paraglacial landscapes: macro-scale 6.5 Glacial landscapes: medium-scale 6.5.1 The transition from glacial to fluvial dominance 6.6 Proglacial landscapes: medium-scale 6.6.1 Glacifluvial landforms 6.6.2 The Channeled Scablands 6.6.3 Sub-glacial channels 6.6.4 Sub-glacial, ice-marginal and supraglacial sediment-landform associations 6.7 Periglacial landscapes: medium scale 6.7.1 The transition from periglacial to fluvial dominance 6.8 Paraglacial landscapes: medium-scale 6.9 Glacial landscapes: local-scale 6.9.1 Primary glacigenic deposits 6.9.2 Small scale erosional forms 6.10 Proglacial landscapes: local-scale 6.11 Periglacial landscapes: local scale 6.13 Paraglacial landscapes: local-scale 6.13 Landscape resistance, collapse and recovery 6.14 Transitional landscapes at Quaternary, Holocene and Anthropocene timescales 7 Cryospheric change and vulnerability at Quaternary, Holocene and Anthropocene time scales 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Panarchy 7.2.1 Panarchy, sustainability and transformability 7.2.2 Collapse and the vulnerability of socio-economic systems 7.3 Changing ice cover and biomes since the Last Glacial Maximum 7.3.1 The Last Glacial Maximum 7.3.2 The Holocene Optimum 7.4 The first explorers in North America 7.5 Implications of cryospheric change/collapse 7.5.1 Snow quantity 7.5.2 Snow quality 7.5.3 River and lake ice 7.5.4 Permafrost 7.5.5 Glaciers 7.5.6 River basins 7.5.7 Sea ice 7.5.8 Ice sheets 7.5.9 Sea level change 7.5.10 Carbon sequestration 7.5.11 Vegetation 7.5.12 Polar bears 7.5.13 Human health 7.5.14 Persistent organic pollutants 7.5.15 Socio-cultural conditions and health status 7.5.16 Livelihoods and socio-economic conditions 7.5.17 Governance 7.6 Concluding thoughts References Index

Anmerkung: Contents Preface Acknowledgments Chapter 1 Planet Earth and Earth systems 1.1 Comparative planetology 1.2 Unique Earth 1.3 Earth systems snapshots 1.4 Measuring Earth 1.5 Whole Earth 1.6 Subtle, interactive Earth Further reading Chapter 2 Matters of state and motion 2.1 Matters of state 2.2 Thermal matters 2.3 Quantity of matter 2.4 Motion matters: kinematics 2.5 Continuity: mass conservation of fluids Further reading Chapter 3 Forces and dynamics 3.1 Quantity of motion: momentum 3.2 Acceleration 3.3 Force, work, energy, and power 3.4 Thermal energy and mechanical work 3.5 Hydrostatic pressure 3.6 Buoyancy force 3.7 Inward acceleration 3.8 Rotation, vorticity, and Coriolis force 3.9 Viscosity 3.10 Viscous force 3.11 Turbulent force 3.12 Overall forces of fluid motion 3.13 Solid stress 3.14 Solid strain 3.15 Rheology Further reading Chapter 4 Flow, deformation, and transport 4.1 The origin of large-scale fluid flow 4.2 Fluid flow types 4.3 Fluid boundary layers 4.4 Laminar flow 4.5 Turbulent flow 4.6 Stratified flow 4.7 Particle settling 4.8 Particle transport by flows 4.9 Waves and liquids 4.10 Transport by waves 4.11 Granular gravity flow 4.12 Turbidity flows 4.13 Flow through porous and granular solids 4.14 Fractures 4.15 Faults 4.16 Solid bending, buckling, and folds 4.17 Seismic waves 4.18 Molecules in motion: kinetic theory, heat conduction, and diffusion 4.19 Heat transport by radiation 4.20 Heat transport by convection Further reading Chapter 5 Inner Earth processes and systems 5.1 Melting, magmas, and volcanoes 5.2 Plate tectonics Further reading Chapter 6 Outer Earth processes and systems 6.1 Atmosphere 6.2 Atmosphere-ocean interface 6.3 Atmosphere-land interface 6.4 Deep ocean 6.5 Shallow ocean 6.6 Ocean-land interface: coasts 6.7 Land surface Further reading Appendix Brief mathematical refresher or study guide Cookies Index

Anmerkung: Contents Contributors 1 Introduction 1.1 Part 1: Applied statistical theory 1.2 Part 2: The case studies 1.3 Data, software and flowcharts 2 Data management and software 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Data management 2.3 Data preparation 2.4 Statistical software 3 Advice for teachers 3.1 Introduction 4 Exploration 4.1 The first steps 4.2 Outliers, transformations and standardisations 4.3 A final thought on data exploration 5 Linear regression 5.1 Bivariate linear regression 5.2 Multiple linear regression 5.3 Partial linear regression 6 Generalised linear modelling 6.1 Poisson regression 6.2 Logistic regression 7 Additive and generalised additive modelling 7.1 Introduction 7.2 The additive model 7.3 Example of an additive model 7.4 Estimate the smoother and amount of smoothing 7.5 Additive models with multiple explanatory variables 7.6 Choosing the amount of smoothing 7.7 Model selection and validation 7.8 Generalised additive modelling 7.9 Where to go from here 8 Introduction to mixed modelling 8.1 Introduction 8.2 The random intercept and slope model 8.3 Model selection and validation 8.4 A bit of theory 8.5 Another mixed modelling example 8.6 Additive mixed modelling 9 Univariate tree models 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Pruning the tree 9.3 Classification trees 9.4 A detailed example: Ditch data 10 Measures of association 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Association between sites: Q analysis 10.3 Association among species: R analysis 10.4 Q and R analysis: Concluding remarks 10.5 Hypothesis testing with measures of association 11 Ordination — First encounter 11.1 Bray-Curtis ordination 12 Principal component analysis and redundancy analysis 12.1 The underlying principle of PCA 12.2 PCA: Two easy explanations 12.3 PCA: Two technical explanations 12.4 Example of PCA 12.5 The biplot 12.6 General remarks 12.7 Chord and Hellinger transformations 12.8 Explanatory variables 12.9 Redundancy analysis 12.10 Partial RDA and variance partitioning 12.11 PCA regression to deal with collinearity 13 Correspondence analysis and canonical correspondence analysis 13.1 Gaussian regression and extensions 13.2 Three rationales for correspondence analysis 13.3 From RGR to CCA13.4 Understanding the CCA triplot 13.5 When to use PCA, CA, RDA or CCA 13.6 Problems with CA and CCA 14 Introduction to discriminant analysis 14.1 Introduction 14.2 Assumptions 14.3 Example 14.4 The mathematics 14.5 The numerical output for the sparrow data 15 Principal coordinate analysis and non-metric multidimensional scaling 15.1 Principal coordinate analysis 15.2 Non-metric multidimensional scaling 16 Time series analysis — Introduction 16.1 Using what we have already seen before 16.2 Auto-regressive integrated moving average models with exogenous variables 17 Common trends and sudden changes 17.1 Repeated LOESS smoothing 17.2 Identifying the seasonal component 17.3 Common trends: MAFA 17.4 Common trends: Dynamic factor analysis 17.5 Sudden changes: Chronological clustering 18 Analysis and modelling of lattice data 18.1 Lattice data 18.2 Numerical representation of the lattice structure 18.3 Spatial correlation 18.4 Modelling lattice data 18.5 More exotic models 18.6 Summary 19 Spatially continuous data analysis and modelling 19.1 Spatially continuous data 19.2 Geostatistical functions and assumptions 19.3 Exploratory variography analysis 19.4 Geostatistical modelling: Kriging 19.5 A full spatial analysis of the bird radar data 20 Univariate methods to analyse abundance of decapod larvae 20.1 Introduction 20.2 The data 20.3 Data exploration 20.4 Linear regression results 20.5 Additive modelling results 20.6 How many samples to take? 20.7 Discussion 21 Analysing presence and absence data for flatfish distribution in the Tagus estuary, Portugal 21.1 Introduction 21.2 Data and materials 21.3 Data exploration 21.4 Classification trees 21.5 Generalised additive modelling 21.6 Generalised linear modelling 21.7 Discussion 22 Crop pollination by honeybees in Argentina using additive mixed modelling 22.1 Introduction 22.2 Experimental setup 22.3 Abstracting the information 22.4 First steps of the analyses: Data exploration 22.5 Additive mixed modelling 22.6 Discussion and conclusions 23 Investigating the effects of rice farming on aquatic birds with mixed modelling 23.1 Introduction 23.2 The data 23.3 Getting familiar with the data: Exploration 23.4 Building a mixed model 23.5 The optimal model in terms of random components 23.6 Validating the optimal linear mixed model 23.7 More numerical output for the optimal model 23.8 Discussion 24 Classification trees and radar detection of birds for North Sea wind farms 24.1 Introduction 24.2 From radars to data 24.3 Classification trees 24.4 A tree for the birds 24.5 A tree for birds, clutter and more clutter 24.6 Discussion and conclusions 25 Fish stock identification through neural network analysis of parasite fauna 25.1 Introduction 25.2 Horse mackerel in the northeast Atlantic 25.3 Neural networks 25.4 Collection of data 25.5 Data exploration 25.6 Neural network results 25.7 Discussion 26 Monitoring for change: Using generalised least squares, non-metric multidimensional scaling, and the Mantel test on western Montana grasslands 26.1 Introduction 26.2 The data 26.3 Data exploration 26.4 Linear regression results 26.5 Generalised least squares results 26.6 Multivariate analysis results 26.7 Discussion 27 Univariate and multivariate analysis applied on a Dutch sandy beach community 27.1 Introduction 27.2 The variables 27.3 Analysing the data using univariate methods 27.4 Analysing the data using multivariate methods 27.5 Discussion and conclusions 28 Multivariate analyses of South-American zoobenthic species — spoilt for choice 28.1 Introduction and the underlying questions 28.2 Study site and sample collection 28.3 Data exploration 28.4 The Mantel test approach 28.5 The transformation plus RDA approach 28.6 Discussion and conclusions 29 Principal component analysis applied to harbour porpoise fatty acid data 29.1 Introduction 29.2 The data 29.3 Principal component analysis 29.4 Data exploration 29.5 Principal component analysis results 29.6 Simpler alternatives to PCA 29.7 Discussion 30 Multivariate analyses of morphometric turtle data — size and shape 30.1 Introduction 30.2 The turtle data 30.3 Data exploration 30.4 Overview of classic approaches related to PCA 30.5 Applying PCA to the original turtle data 30.6 Classic morphometric data analysis approaches 30.7 A geometric morphometric approach 31 Redundancy analysis and additive modelling applied on savanna tree data 31.1 Introduction 31.2 Study area 31.3 Methods 31.4 Results 31.5 Discussion 32 Canonical correspondence analysis of lowland pasture vegetation in the humid tropics of Mexico 32.1 Introduction 32.2 The study area 32.3 The data 32.4 Data exploration 32.5 Canonical correspondence analysis results 32.6 African star grass 32.7 Discussion and conclusion 33 Estimating common trends in Portuguese fisheries landings 33.1 Introduction 33.2 The time series data 33.3 MAFA and DFA 33.4 MAFA results 33.5 DFA results 33.6 Discussion 34 Common trends in demersal communities on the Newfoundland-Labrador Shelf 34.1 Introduction 34.2 Data 34.3 Time series analysis 34.4 Discussion 35 Sea level change and salt marshes in the Wadden Sea: A time series analysis 35.1 Interaction between hydrodynamical and biological factors 35.2 The data 35.3 Data exploration 35.4 Additive mixed modelling 35.5 Additive mixed modelling results 35.6 Discussion 36 Time series analysis of Hawaiian waterbirds 36.1 Introduction 36.2 Endangered Hawaiian waterbirds 36.3 Data exploration 36.4 Three ways to estimate trends 36.5 Additive mixed modelling 36.6 Sudden breakpoints 36.7 Discussion 37 Spatial modelling of forest community features in the Volzhsko-Kamsky reserve 37.1 Introduction 37.2 Study area 37.3 Data exploration 37.4 Models of boreality without spatial auto-correlation 37.5 Models of boreality with spatial auto-correlation 37.6 Conclusion References Index

Anmerkung: Table of Contents Chapter 1 Analysis / John S. Robertson, Karen Bolinger, Lawrence M. Glasser, Neil J.A. Sloane, and Rob Gross Chapter 2 Algebra / Brad Wilson, John Michaels, Patrick J. Driscoll, and Rob Gross Chapter 3 Discrete Mathematics / George K. Tzanetopoulos, Jeff Goldberg, Joseph J. Rushanan, and Mel Hausner Chapter 4 Geometry / Ray McLenaghan and Silvio Levy Chapter 5 Continuous Mathematics / Catherine Roberts and Ray McLenaghan Chapter 6 Special Functions / Ahmed I. Zayed, Nicco M. Temme, and Paul Jameson Chapter 7 Probability and Statistics / William C. Rinaman, Christopher Heil, Michael T. Strauss, Michael Mascagni, and Mike Sousa Chapter 8 Scientific Computing / Gary Stanek Chapter 9 Financial Analysis / Daniel Zwillinger Chapter 10 Miscellaneous / Michael T. Strauss, Rob Gross, and Victor J. Katz List of Notations Index

Anmerkung: Contents Foreword Introduction Oil - Catalyst for change The Haul Road - Highway to the Arctic Origins: The geologic setting Glaciers shape the land Glaciation and wildlife distribution Permafrost and the periglacial environment The Dalton Highway road log Glossary Selected references