ALBERT

Note: Contents Contributors Part I. Alaska's Past and Present Environment 1. The Conceptual Basis of LTER Studies in the Alaskan Boreal Forest / F. Stuart Chapin III, john Yarie, Keith Van Cleve, and Leslie A. Viereck 2. Regional Overview of Interior Alaska / James E. Beget, David Stone, and David L Verbyla 3. State Factor Control of Soil Formation in Interior Alaska / Chien-Lu Ping, Richard D. Boone, Marcus H. Clark, Edmond C. Packee, and David K. Swanson 4. Climate and Permafrost Dynamics of the Alaskan Boreal Forest / Larry D. Hinzman, Leslie A. Viereck, Phyllis C. Adams, Vladimir E. Romanovsky, and Kenji Yoshikawa 5. Holocene Development of the Alaskan Boreal Forest / Andrea H. Lloyd, Mary E. Edwards, Bruce P. Finney, Jason A. Lynch, Valerie Barber, and Nancy H. Bigelow Part II. Forest Dynamics 6. Floristic Diversity and Vegetation Distribution in the Alaskan Boreal Forest / F. Stuart Chapin III, Teresa Hollingsworth, David F. Murray, Leslie A. Viereck, and Marilyn D. Walker 7. Successional Processes in the Alaskan Boreal Forest / F. Stuart Chapin III, Leslie A. Viereck, Phyllis C. Adams, Keith Van Cleve, Christopher L. Fastie, Robert A. Ott, Daniel Mann, and Jill F. Johnstone 8. Mammalian Herbivore Population Dynamics in the Alaskan Boreal Forest / Eric Rexstad and Knut Kielland 9. Dynamics of Phytophagous Insects and Their Pathogens in Alaskan Boreal Forests / Richard A. Werner, Kenneth F. Raffa, and Barbara L. Illman 10. Running Waters of the Alaskan Boreal Forest / Mark W. Oswood, Nicholas F. Hughes, and Alexander M. Milner Part III. Ecosystem Dynamics 11. Controls over Forest Production in Interior Alaska / John Yarie and Keith Van Cleve 12. The Role of Fine Roots in the Functioning of Alaskan Boreal Forests / Roger W. Ruess, Ronald L. Hendrick, Jason C. Vogel, and Bjartmar Sveinbjornsson 13. Mammalian Herbivory, Ecosystem Engineering, and Ecological Cascades in Alaskan Boreal Forests / Knut Kielland, John P. Bryant, and Roger W. Ruess 14. Microbial Processes in the Alaskan Boreal Forest / Joshua P. Schimel and F. Stuart Chapin III 15. Patterns of Biogeochemistry in Alaskan Boreal Forests / David W. Valentine, Knut Kielland, F. Stuart Chapin III, A. David McCuire, and Keith Van Cleve Part IV. Changing Regional Processes 16. Watershed Hydrology and Chemistry in the Alaskan Boreal Forest: The Central Role of Permafrost / Larry D. Hinzman, W. Robert Bolton, Kevin C. Petrone, Jeremy B. Jones, and Phyllis C. Adams 17. Fire Trends in the Alaskan Boreal Forest / Eric S. Kasischke, T. Scott Rupp, and David L. Verbyla 18. Timber Harvest in Interior Alaska / Tricia L. Wurtz, Robert A. Ott, and John C. Maisch 19. Climate Feedbacks in the Alaskan Boreal Forest / A. David McCuire and F. Stuart Chapin III 20. Communication of Alaskan Boreal Science with Broader Communities / Elena B. Sparrow, Janice C. Dawe, and F. Stuart Chapin III 21. Summary and Synthesis: Past and Future Changes in the Alaskan Boreal Forest / F. Stuart Chapin III, A. David McCuire, Roger W. Ruess, Marilyn W. Walker, Richard D. Boone, Mary E. Edwards, Bruce P. Finney, Larry D. Hinzman, Jeremy B. Jones, Clenn P. Juday, Eric S. Kasischke, Knut Kielland, Andrea H. Lloyd, Mark W. Oswood, Chien-Lu Ping, Eric Rexstad, Vladimir E. Romanovsky, Joshua P. Schimel, Elena B. Sparrow, Bjartmar Sveinbjornsson, David W. Valentine, Keith Van Cleve, David L. Verbyla, Leslie A. Viereck, Richard A. Werner, Tricia L. Wurtz, and John Yarie Index

Note: Contents Preface Part I Anatomy of a cyclone 1 Anatomy of a cyclone 1.1 A 'typical' extra-tropical cyclone 1.2 Describing the atmosphere 1.3 Air masses and fronts 1.4 The structure of a typical extra-tropical cyclone Review questions 2 Mathematical methods in fluid dynamics 2.1 Scalars and vectors 2.2 The algebra of vectors 2.3 Scalar and vector fields 2.4 Coordinate systems on the Earth 2.5 Gradients of vectors 2.6 Line and surface integrals 2.7 Eulerian and Lagrangian frames of reference 2.8 Advection Review questions 3 Properties of fluids 3.1 Solids, liquids, and gases 3.2 Thermodynamic properties of air 3.3 Composition of the atmosphere 3.4 Static stability 3.5 The continuum hypothesis 3.6 Practical assumptions 3.7 Continuity equation Review questions 4 Fundamental forces 4.1 Newton's second law: F=ma 4.2 Body, surface, and line forces 4.3 Forces in an inertial reference frame 4.4 Forces in a rotating reference frame 4.5 The Navier-Stokes equations Review questions 5 Scale analysis 5.1 Dimensional homogeneity 5.2 Scales 5.3 Non-dimensional parameters 5.4 Scale analysis 5.5 The geostrophic approximation Review questions 6 Simple steady motion 6.1 Natural coordinate system 6.2 Balanced flow 6.3 The Boussinesq approximation 6.4 The thermal wind 6.5 Departures from balance Review questions 7 Circulation and vorticity 7.1 Circulation 7.2 Vorticity 7.3 Conservation of potential vorticity 7.4 An introduction to the vorticity equation Review questions 8 Simple wave motions 8.1 Properties of waves 8.2 Perturbation analysis 8.3 Planetary waves Review questions 9 Extra-tropical weather systems 9.1 Fronts 9.2 Frontal cyclones 9.3 Baroclinic instability Review questions Part II Atmospheric phenomena 10 Boundary layers 10.1 Turbulence 10.2 Reynolds decomposition 10.3 Generation of turbulence 10.4 Closure assumptions Review questions 11 Clouds and severe weather 11.1 Moist processes in the atmosphere 11.2 Air mass thunderstorms 11.3 Multi-cell thunderstorms 11.4 Supercell thunderstorms and tornadoes 11.5 Mesoscale convective systems Review questions 12 Tropical weather 12.1 Scales of motion 12.2 Atmospheric oscillations 12.3 Tropical cyclones Review questions 13 Mountain weather 13.1 Internal gravity waves 13.2 Flow over mountains 13.3 Downslope windstorms Review questions 14 Polar weather 14.1 Katabatic winds 14.2 Barrier winds 14.3 Polar lows Review questions 15 Epilogue: the general circulation 15.1 Fueled by the Sun 15.2 Radiative-convective equilibrium 15.3 The zonal mean circulation 15.4 The angular momentum budget 15.5 The energy cycle Appendix A - symbols Appendix Β - constants and units Bibliography Index

Note: Contents Foreword Preface Contributors I Introduction 1 The Development of Climate Research / by ANTONIO NAVARRA 1.1 The Nature of Climate Studies 1.1.1 The Big Storm Controversy 1.1.2 The Great Planetary Oscillations 1.2 The Components of Climate Research 1.2.1 Dynamical Theory 1.2.2 Numerical Experimentation 1.2.3 Statistical Analysis 2 Misuses of Statistical Analysis in Climate Research / by HANS VON STORCH 2.1 Prologue 2.2 Mandatory Testing and the Mexican Hat 2.3 Neglecting Serial Correlation 2.4 Misleading Names: The Case of the Decorrelation Time 2.5 Use of Advanced Techniques 2.6 Epilogue II Analyzing The Observed Climate 3 Climate Spectra and Stochastic Climate Models / by CLAUDE FRANKIGNOUL 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Spectral Characteristics of Atmospheric Variables 3.3 Stochastic Climate Model 3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies 3.5 Variability of Other Surface Variables 3.6 Variability in the Ocean Interior 3.7 Long Term Climate Changes 4 The Instrumental Data Record: Its Accuracy and Use in Attempts to Identify the "CO2 Signal" / by PHIL JONES 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Homogeneity 4.2.1 Changes in Instrumentation, Exposure and Measuring Techniques 4.2.2 Changes in Station Locations 4.2.3 Changes in Observation Time and the Methods Used to Calculate Monthly Averages 4.2.4 Changes in the Station Environment 4.2.5 Precipitation and Pressure Homogeneity 4.2.6 Data Homogenization Techniques 4.3 Surface Climate Analysis 4.3.1 Temperature 4.3.2 Precipitation 4.3.3 Pressure 4.4 The Greenhouse Detection Problem 4.4.1 Definition of Detection Vector and Data Used 4.4.2 Spatial Correlation Methods 4.5 Conclusions 5 Interpreting High-Resolution Proxy Climate Data - The Example of Dendr о climatology / by KEITH R. BRIFFA 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Background 5.3 Site Selection and Dating 5.4 Chronology Confidence 5.4.1 Chronology Signal 5.4.2 Expressed Population Signal 5.4.3 Subsample Signal Strength 5.4.4 Wider Relevance of Chronology Signal 5.5 "Standardization" and Its Implications for Judging Theoretical Signal 5.5.1 Theoretical Chronology Signal 5.5.2 Standardization of "Raw" Data Measurements 5.5.3 General Relevance of the "Standardization" Problem 5.6 Quantifying Climate Signals in Chronologies 5.6.1 Calibration of Theoretical Signal 5.6.2 Verification of Calibrated Relationships 5.7 Discussion 5.8 Conclusions 6 Analysing the Boreal Summer Relationship Between World wide Sea-Surface Temperature and Atmospheric Variability / by M. NEIL WARD 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Physical Basis for Sea-Surface Temperature Forcing of the Atmosphere 6.2.1 Tropics 6.2.2 Extratropics 6.3 Characteristic Patterns of Global Sea Surface Temperature: EOFs and Rotated EOFs 6.3.1 Introduction 6.3.2 SST Data 6.3.3 EOF method 6.3.4 EOFs p^→1 - p^→3 6.3.5 Rotation of EOFs 6.4 Characteristic Features in the Marine Atmosphere Associated with the SST Patterns p^→2, p ^→3 and p^→2R in JAS 6.4.1 Data and Methods 6.4.2 Patterns in the Marine Atmosphere Associated with EOF p^→2 6.4.3 Patterns in the Marine Atmosphere Associated with EOF p^→3 6.4.4 Patterns in the Marine Atmosphere Associated with Rotated EOF p^→2R 6.5 JAS Sahel Rainfall Links with Sea-Surface Temperature and Marine Atmosphere 6.5.1 Introduction 6.5.2 Rainfall in the Sahel of Africa 6.5.3 High Frequency Sahel Rainfall Variations 6.5.4 Low Frequency Sahel Rainfall Variations 6.6 Conclusions III Simulating and Predicting Climate 7 The Simulation of Weather Types in GCMs : A Regional Approach to Control-Run Validation / by KEITH R. BRIFFA 7.1 Introduction 7.2 The Lamb Catalogue 7.3 An "Objective" Lamb Classification 7.4 Details of the Selected GCM Experiments 7.5 Comparing Observed and GCM Climates 7.5.1 Lamb Types 7.5.2 Temperature and Precipitation 7.5.3 Relationships Between Circulation Frequencies and Temperature and Precipitation 7.5.4 Weather-Type Spell Lengths and Storm Frequencies 7.6 Conclusions 7.6.1 Specific Conclusions 7.6.2 General Conclusions 8 Statistical Analysis of GCM Output / by CLAUDE FRANKIGNOUL 8.1 Introduction 8.2 Univariate Analysis 8.2.1 The i-Test on the Mean of a Normal Variable 8.2.2 Tests for Autocorrelated Variables 8.2.3 Field Significance 8.2.4 Example: GCM Response to a Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly 8.3 Multivariate Analysis 8.3.1 Test on Means of Multidimensional Normal Variables 8.3.2 Application to Response Studies 8.3.3 Application to Model Testing and Intercomparison 9 Field Intercomparison / by ROBERT E . LIVEZEY 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Motivation for Permutation and Monte Carlo Testing 9.2.1 Local vs. Field Significance 9.2.2 Test Example 9.3 Permutation Procedures 9.3.1 Test Environment 9.3.2 Permutation (PP) and Bootstrap (BP) Procedures 9.3.3 Properties 9.3.4 Interdependence Among Field Variables 9.4 Serial Correlation 9.4.1 Local Probability Matching 9.4.2 Times Series and Monte Carlo Methods 9.4.3 Independent Samples 9.4.4 Conservatism 9.5 Concluding Remarks 10 The Evaluation of Forecasts / by ROBERT E. LIVEZEY 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Considerations for Objective Verification 10.2.1 Quantification 10.2.2 Authentication 10.2.3 Description of Probability Distributions 10.2.4 Comparison of Forecasts 10.3 Measures and Relationships: Categorical Forecasts 10.3.1 Contingency and Definitions 10.3.2 Some Scores Based on the Contingency Table 10.4 Measures and Relationships: Continuous Forecasts 10.4.1 Mean Squared Error and Correlation 10.4.2 Pattern Verification (the Murphy-Epstein Decomposition) 10.5 Hindcasts and Cross-Validation 10.5.1 Cross-Validation Procedure 10.5.2 Key Constraints in Cross-Validation 11 Stochastic Modeling of Precipitation with Applications to Climate Model Downscaling / by DENNIS LETTENMAIER 11.1 Introduction 11.2 Probabilistic Characteristics of Precipitation 11.3 Stochastic Models of Precipitation 11.3.1 Background 11.3.2 Applications to Global Change 11.4 Stochastic Precipitation Models with External Forcing 11.4.1 Weather Classification Schemes 11.4.2 Conditional Stochastic Precipitation Models 11.5 Applications to Alternative Climate Simulation 11.6 Conclusions IV Pattern Analysis 12 Teleconnections Patterns / by ANTONIO NAVARRA 12.1 Objective Teleconnections 12.2 Singular Value Decomposition 12.3 Teleconnections in the Ocean-Atmosphere System 12.4 Concluding Remarks 13 Spatial Patterns: EOFs and CCA / by HANS VON STORCH 13.1 Introduction 13.2 Expansion into a Few Guess Patterns 13.2.1 Guess Patterns, Expansion Coefficients and Explained Variance 13.2.2 Example: Temperature Distribution in the Mediterranean Sea 13.2.3 Specification of Guess Patterns 13.2.4 Rotation of Guess Patterns 13.3 Empirical Orthogonal Functions 13.3.1 Definition of EOFs 13.3.2 What EOFs Are Not Designed for 13.3.3 Estimating EOFs 13.3.4 Example: Central European Temperature 13.4 Canonical Correlation Analysis 13.4.1 Definition of Canonical Correlation Patterns 13.4.2 CCA in EOF Coordinates 13.4.3 Estimation: CCA of Finite Samples 13.4.4 Example: Central European Temperature 14 Patterns in Time : SSA and MSSA / by ROBERT VAUTARD 14.1 Introduction 14.2 Reconstruction and Approximation of Attractors 14.2.1 The Embedding Problem 14.2.2 Dimension and Noise 14.2.3 The Macroscopic Approximation 14.3 Singular Spectrum Analysis 14.3.1 Time EOFs 14.3.2 Space-Time EOFs 14.3.3 Oscillatory Pairs 14.3.4 Spectral Properties 14.3.5 Choice of the Embedding Dimension 14.3.6 Estimating Time and Space-Time Patterns 14.4 Climatic Applications of SSA 14.4.1 The Analysis of Intraseasonal Oscillations 14.4.2 Empirical Long-Range Forecasts Using MSSA Predictors 14.5 Conclusions 15 Multivariate Statistical Modeling : POP-Model as a First Order Approximation / by JIN-SONG VON STORCH 15.1 Introduction 15.2 The Cross-Covariance Matrix and the Cross-Spectrum Matrix 15.3 Multivariate AR(1) Process and its Cross-Covariance and Cross-Spectrum Matrices 15.3.1 The System Matrix A and its POPs 15.3.2 Cross-Spectrum Matrix in POP-Basis: Its Matrix Formulation 15.3.3 Cross-Spectrum Matrix in POP-Basis: Its Diagonal Components