ALBERT

Description: This paper describes the motivation for the creation of the Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), its initial activities, and its plans to serve as a bridge between climate change applications experts and climate modelers. The climate change application community comprises researchers and other specialists who use climate information (alongside socioeconomic and other environmental information) to analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation of natural systems and society in relation to past, ongoing, and projected future climate change. Much of this activity is directed toward the co-development of information needed by decision-makers for managing projected risks. CMIP6 provides a unique opportunity to facilitate a two-way dialog between climate modelers and VIACS experts who are looking to apply CMIP6 results for a wide array of research and climate services objectives. The VIACS Advisory Board convenes leaders of major impact sectors, international programs, and climate services to solicit community feedback that increases the applications relevance of the CMIP6-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs). As an illustration of its potential, the VIACS community provided CMIP6 leadership with a list of prioritized climate model variables and MIP experiments of the greatest interest to the climate model applications community, indicating the applicability and societal relevance of climate model simulation outputs. The VIACS Advisory Board also recommended an impacts version of Obs4MIPs and indicated user needs for the gridding and processing of model output.

Description: Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a fundamental component of all life on Earth. Due to the considerable increase in emissions, particularly industrial emissions, CO2has, however, become a waste product and greenhouse gas damaging to the climate and, consequently, a threat to both humanity and nature. For almost 50years, chemical research has been pursuing the idea of making the CO2 molecule useful as a raw material(Aresta and Dibenedetto 2010). Within the context of the oil crises of the 1970s, and contingent on the currentneed for climate protection, there has been a rise in global interest in the research and development oftechnologies which could make CO2 useful as a source of carbon. Several regions in Europe, but also in North America and Asia have started sponsorship programmes to support the development of such technologies (BMBF 2014, Climate-KIC 2014, U.S. Department of Energy [DOE] n.d.).The goal of these efforts is to integrate this climatedamaging gas in extremely diverse industrial productionprocesses as a raw material. The use of CO2 would not only allow for the production of useful raw materials and products, such technologies could alsoemulate a natural carbon cycle (Peters et al. 2011). At the same time, they have the potential to reduce the consumption of other fossil resources and, in so doing, they might not only contribute to the extension of the resource base, but also reduce missionswhilst providing protection for natural resources (von der Assen et al. 2013). Technological breakthroughs and advancements are currently observedin carbon capture technologies in the catalysis and transformation of CO2 (Aresta 2010, Mikkelsen et al. 2010, Peters et al. 2011, Styring et al. 2011, Wilcox 2012, Smit et al. 2014, Klankermayer and Leitner 2015), and the first innovative CO2-based productsare already coming onto the markets.

Description: Under its special initiative “One World, No Hunger” (SEWOH), the GermanFederal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) is prioritizingefforts to deliver food security and enhance the management of naturalresources. The protection and rehabilitation of agricultural land managed bysmallholder farmers are central to this dual agenda and form the objectives ofa GIZ programme implemented in five countries. Seeking to explore new formsof development cooperation, SEWOH mandated the Global Soil Forum (GSF)to accompany the work of the GIZ through transdisciplinary research. Theaccompanying research project focuses on the socio-economic and culturalfactors that constrain the uptake of sustainable land management (SLM) techniquesby smallholder farmers. The GSF’s approach stresses co-developmentand the pursuit of research themes with local partners, including researchers,policymakers, actors of development cooperation, civil society organisations,and farmers.

Description: The second session on integrated ocean management was kicked-off by Sebastian Unger (IASS Potsdam). In his keynote presentation he highlighted the great political moment for moving towards integrated ocean governance, which could be even further advanced through (a) innovating instruments, (b) complementary strategies at national, regional and global scale, and (c) capacity-building and sustainable finance. In particular, he argued that the regional level could act as a broker for integration, as there are well-established institutions at regional level, where agreement can be reached more easily than at global level and which allows for a meaningful implementation of the ecosystem approach. In the discussion moderation by Management Board member Gert Verreet, discussants pointed out that in Europe, many of the institutions (e.g. at sea-basin level), instruments (e.g. Marine Spatial Planning) and commitment to integrated ocean management were already in place; however, a better implementation was necessary.

Description: Various geoengineering technologies that would deliberately alter the climate system have been proposed as a way to alleviate risks of global warming. Technologies that would shield incoming sunlight to cool the planet, so called solar radiation management (SRM), are particularly controversial. Considering insights from social studies of simulation modeling and research on expectations in science and technology, I argue that climate modeling has a central role in producing visions of SRM. I draw upon an empirical analysis of scientific research on SRM to examine how a creative play with technological ideas becomes possible through climate modeling. This enables scientists to project and study environmental impacts of speculative SRM methods in virtual experiments and to develop and refine ideas for adjusting sunlight. Hence, while climate models are used to improve scientific understandings of climate system behavior and to anticipate possible environmental impacts of SRM, they also become inventive tools, allowing scientists to envision novel ways of climate control and optimization. Given the importance of simulation studies to knowledge production on SRM, I critically reflect on the challenges that arise when visions about an engineered climate future are first and foremost produced in climate simulations.

Description: Surface ozone is a secondary air pollutant produced during the atmospheric photochemical degradation of emitted volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the presence of sunlight and nitrogen oxides (NOx). Temperature directly influences ozone production through speeding up the rates of chemical reactions and increasing the emissions of VOCs, such as isoprene, from vegetation. In this study, we used an idealised box model with different chemical mechanisms (Master Chemical Mechanism, MCMv3.2; Common Representative Intermediates, CRIv2; Model for OZone and Related Chemical Tracers, MOZART-4; Regional Acid Deposition Model, RADM2; Carbon Bond Mechanism, CB05) to examine the non-linear relationship between ozone, NOx and temperature, and we compared this to previous observational studies. Under high-NOx conditions, an increase in ozone from 20 to 40 °C of up to 20 ppbv was due to faster reaction rates, while increased isoprene emissions added up to a further 11 ppbv of ozone. The largest inter-mechanism differences were obtained at high temperatures and high-NOx emissions. CB05 and RADM2 simulated more NOx-sensitive chemistry than MCMv3.2, CRIv2 and MOZART-4, which could lead to different mitigation strategies being proposed depending on the chemical mechanism. The increased oxidation rate of emitted VOC with temperature controlled the rate of Ox production; the net influence of peroxy nitrates increased net Ox production per molecule of emitted VOC oxidised. The rate of increase in ozone mixing ratios with temperature from our box model simulations was about half the rate of increase in ozone with temperature observed over central Europe or simulated by a regional chemistry transport model. Modifying the box model set-up to approximate stagnant meteorological conditions increased the rate of increase of ozone with temperature as the accumulation of oxidants enhanced ozone production through the increased production of peroxy radicals from the secondary degradation of emitted VOCs. The box model simulations approximating stagnant conditions and the maximal ozone production chemical regime reproduced the 2 ppbv increase in ozone per degree Celsius from the observational and regional model data over central Europe. The simulated ozone–temperature relationship was more sensitive to mixing than the choice of chemical mechanism. Our analysis suggests that reductions in NOx emissions would be required to offset the additional ozone production due to an increase in temperature in the future.

Description: Known as "the Third Pole" (TP), the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding mountains hold the largest aggregate of glaciers outside the pole regions. Recent monitoring and projection indicated an accelerated glacier decline and increasing glacier runoff. The long-range transport of South Asian atmospheric pollutants, including light absorbing impurities (LAIs) such as black carbon (BC) and mineral dust (MD), can absorb the solar radiation in the atmosphere and reduce albedo after being deposited onto the cryosphere, thereby promoting glacier and snow melt. A coordinated atmospheric pollution monitoring network has been launched covering the TP with emphasis on trans-Himalayan transects since 2013. TSP were collected for 24h at an interval of 3-6 days. BC/OC, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and heavy metals were measured. Results reveal a consistent decrease in almost all analyzed parameters from south to north across the Himalayas. Geochemical signatures of carbonaceous aerosols indicate dominant sources of biomass burning and vehicle exhaust, in line with results of PAHs. Integrated analysis of satellite images and air mass trajectories suggest that the trans-boundary air pollution occurred episodically and concentrated in pre-monsoon seasons via upper air circulation, through-valley wind, and local convection. Simulation results showed that carbonaceous aerosols produced positive/negative shortwave radiative forcing in the atmosphere/ground surface. Aerosols increased surface air temperatures by 0.1-0.5℃ over the TP and decreased temperatures in South Asia during the monsoon season. Surface snow/ice samples were collected from benchmark glaciers to estimate the impacts of LAIs on glacier melt with model assistance. BC (37%) and MD (32%) contribute to the summer melting of Laohugou Glacier in the northern TP. MD (38%) contributed more glacier melt than BC (11%) on Zhadang Glacier in the southern TP. In the southeastern TP, BC and MD contribute to 30% of the total glacier melt, up to 350 mm w.e. yr-1. The monitoring network and ongoing studies point to trans-boundary pollution as an increasing stressor for the TP environment, and highlighted the link between atmospheric pollution and cryospheric changes as well as other surface ecosystems over high mountain regions.

Description: Four regional chemistry transport models were applied to simulate the concentration and composition of particulate matter (PM) in Europe for 2005 with horizontal resolution  ∼  20 km. The modelled concentrations were compared with the measurements of PM chemical composition by the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) monitoring network. All models systematically underestimated PM10 and PM2.5 by 10–60 %, depending on the model and the season of the year, when the calculated dry PM mass was compared with the measurements. The average water content at laboratory conditions was estimated between 5 and 20 % for PM2.5 and between 10 and 25 % for PM10. For majority of the PM chemical components, the relative underestimation was smaller than it was for total PM, exceptions being the carbonaceous particles and mineral dust. Some species, such as sea salt and NO3−, were overpredicted by the models. There were notable differences between the models' predictions of the seasonal variations of PM, mainly attributable to different treatments or omission of some source categories and aerosol processes. Benzo(a)pyrene concentrations were overestimated by all the models over the whole year. The study stresses the importance of improving the models' skill in simulating mineral dust and carbonaceous compounds, necessity for high-quality emissions from wildland fires, as well as the need for an explicit consideration of aerosol water content in model–measurement comparison.

Description: The Academic Working Group (AWG) on International Governance of Climate Engineering is aninternational group of senior academics who have been assembled to formulate perspectives on theinternational governance of climate engineering research and potential deployment, with a focus on proposedsolar radiation management (SRM) technologies. The AWG was convened by the Forum for ClimateEngineering Assessment.The group has been tasked with:1. Assessing the existing SRM governance conversation;2. Identifying key debates and open questions;3. Providing a fresh, authoritative analysis of governance pathways; and4. Producing crisp, policy-relevant governance recommendations.The first meeting of the AWG took place March 6-9, 2016 at the School of International Service, AmericanUniversity in Washington, DC and was focused on providing the working group members with a high-levelintroduction to the SRM conversation. More details about the meeting can be found here.The second meeting of the AWG took place September 22-24, 2016 at the Pocantico Meeting Center of theRockefeller Brothers Fund in Tarrytown, New York. As is the case with all materials resulting from meetingsheld at The Pocantico Center, the views expressed in this report are not necessarily those of the RockefellerBrothers Fund, its trustees, or its staff.The meeting was principally concerned with finalizing the organization and crafting of the high-level contentof the working group’s joint report. The following report details the main points of discussion at the secondAWG meeting. It then outlines the main outcomes from the event and indicates the groups’ next steps.

Description: Today, most of the commercial risk radars only have the function to show risks, as same as a set of risk matrixes. In this paper, we develop the Internet of intelligences (IOI) to drive a risk radar monitoring dynamic risks for emergency management in community. An IOI scans risks in a community by 4 stages: collecting information and experience about risks; evaluating risk incidents; verifying; and showing risks. Employing the information diffusion method, we optimized to deal with the effective information for calculating risk value. Also, a specific case demonstrates the reliability and practicability of risk radar.

Description: Turkey’s energy policy focuses on the promotion of coal and nuclear power. Althoughsustainable energy legislation is in place and respective targets have been defined,implementation is lagging behind and sustainable energy takes a back seat in thecountry’s political debate. Internationally, Turkey is concerned with regional (energy)geopolitics much more than with sustainability. In G20 negotiations on sustainableenergy, Turkey might emerge as a laggard, particularly in matters related to the reductionof coal use.

Description: Aviation emissions impact both air quality and climate. Using a coupled tropospheric chemistry-aerosol microphysics model we investigate the effects of varying aviation fuel sulfur content (FSC) on premature mortality from long-term exposure to aviation-sourced PM2.5 (particulate matter with a dry diameter of  〈  2.5 µm) and on the global radiation budget due to changes in aerosol and tropospheric ozone. We estimate that present-day non-CO2 aviation emissions with a typical FSC of 600 ppm result in  ∼  3600 [95 % CI: 1310–5890] annual premature mortalities globally due to increases in cases of cardiopulmonary disease and lung cancer, resulting from increased surface PM2.5 concentrations. We quantify the global annual mean combined radiative effect (REcomb) of non-CO2 aviation emissions as −13.3 mW m−2; from increases in aerosols (direct radiative effect and cloud albedo effect) and tropospheric ozone.Ultra-low sulfur jet fuel (ULSJ; FSC  =  15 ppm) has been proposed as an option to reduce the adverse health impacts of aviation-induced PM2.5. We calculate that swapping the global aviation fleet to ULSJ fuel would reduce the global aviation-induced mortality rate by  ∼  620 [95 % CI: 230–1020] mortalities a−1 and increase REcomb by +7.0 mW m−2.We explore the impact of varying aviation FSC between 0 and 6000 ppm. Increasing FSC increases aviation-induced mortality, while enhancing climate cooling through increasing the aerosol cloud albedo effect (CAE). We explore the relationship between the injection altitude of aviation emissions and the resulting climate and air quality impacts. Compared to the standard aviation emissions distribution, releasing aviation emissions at the ground increases global aviation-induced mortality and produces a net warming effect, primarily through a reduced CAE. Aviation emissions injected at the surface are 5 times less effective at forming cloud condensation nuclei, reducing the aviation-induced CAE by a factor of 10. Applying high FSCs at aviation cruise altitudes combined with ULSJ fuel at lower altitudes results in reduced aviation-induced mortality and increased negative RE compared to the baseline aviation scenario.

Description: Under its special initiative “One World, No Hunger” (SEWOH), the GermanFederal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) is prioritizingefforts to deliver food security and enhance the management of naturalresources. The protection and rehabilitation of agricultural land managed bysmallholder farmers are central to this dual agenda and form the objectives ofa GIZ programme implemented in five countries. Seeking to explore new formsof development cooperation, SEWOH mandated the Global Soil Forum (GSF)to accompany the work of the GIZ through transdisciplinary research. Theaccompanying research project focuses on the socio-economic and culturalfactors that constrain the uptake of sustainable land management (SLM) techniquesby smallholder farmers. The GSF’s approach stresses co-developmentand the pursuit of research themes with local partners, including researchers,policymakers, actors of development cooperation, civil society organisations,and farmers.

Description: We formulate and elicit Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) for assessing possible characteristics of the 2030 German new passenger car fleet, including market shares of different vehicle types, CO2 emissions, user costs, and CO2 abatement costs for internal combustion engine vehicles including hybrid electric vehicles (ICE); plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV); and battery electric vehicles (BEV). Seven technology and environmental experts from the German Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEM) sector were elicited for key relationships and conditional probability values in the model, yielding seven distinct BBNs able to predict how different future technology, economic and policy scenarios will influence model projections. The 2030 scenarios include differing amounts of technological advancement in battery development, regulation, and fuel and electricity greenhouse gas intensities. Across the expert models, 2030 baseline fleet greenhouse gas emissions are predicted to be at 50–65% of 2008 new fleet emissions. They can be further reduced to 40–50% of the emissions of the 2008 new fleet through a combination of a higher share of renewables in the electricity mix, a larger share of biofuels in the fuel mix, and a stricter regulation of car CO2 emissions in the European Union. The experts' BBNs predict that the 2030 ICE will have lower user costs per kilometer than PHEV or BEV for most scenarios, and that ICE will remain the dominant vehicle type in the 2030 German new fleet. According to all of the experts' BBNs, CO2 abatement costs are negative for the 2030 ICE in all scenarios, but can be positive or negative for PHEV and BEV, depending on the expert model and scenario assumed. Critical areas where expert models agree and differ serve to highlight where reductions in uncertainty regarding future technology, economic, environmental and regulatory relationships are most needed to improve our ability to predict and anticipate future vehicle fleet composition and vehicle performance.

Description: India is undergoing structural urban and economic transitions and has set ambitiouspolicy targets to meet its rising energy needs for development. Expanding coal andrenewables are two important pillars of this undertaking and, since 2008, climate protectionis of increasing concern. India’s international engagements reflect these motivationsof both energy security and climate change, where India is increasingly engagingin transfer of clean and efficient energy technologies to developing countries like itself.

Description: The German Energiewende – literally translated as “energy turnaround” – is an outstandingexample of a national effort to transform an energy system. Driven by publicopposition to nuclear energy, and by efforts to combat climate change, the Energiewendebuilds on a massive expansion of renewable energy as well as improvements inenergy efficiency. So far, efforts have focused on the electricity sector, while progressin the heating and transport sector has been very limited. In addition, Germany alsohas a long track record of promoting sustainable energy with its international energypolicies.

Description: Integration and harmonization of large spatial data sets is not only since the introduction of the spatial data infrastructure INSPIRE a big issue. The process of extracting and combining spatial data from heterogeneous source formats, transforming that data to obtain the required quality for particular purposes and loading it into a data store, are common tasks. The procedure of Extraction, Transformation and Loading of data is called ETL process. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can take over many of these tasks but often they are not suitable for processing large datasets. ETL tools can make the implementation and execution of ETL processes convenient and efficient. One reason for choosing ETL tools for data integration is that they ease maintenance because of a clear (graphical) presentation of the transformation steps. Developers and administrators are provided with tools for identification of errors, analyzing processing performance and managing the execution of ETL processes. Another benefit of ETL tools is that for most tasks no or only little scripting skills are required so that also researchers without programming background can easily work with it. Investigations on ETL tools for business approaches are available for a long time. However, little work has been published on the capabilities of those tools to handle spatial data. In this work, we review and compare the open source ETL tools GeoKettle and Talend Open Studio in terms of processing spatial data sets of different formats. For evaluation, ETL processes are performed with both software packages based on air quality data measured during the BÄRLIN2014 Campaign initiated by the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS). The aim of the BÄRLIN2014 Campaign is to better understand the sources and distribution of particulate matter in Berlin. The air quality data are available in heterogeneous formats because they were measured with different instruments. For further data analysis, the instrument data has been complemented by other georeferenced data provided by the local environmental authorities. This includes both vector and raster data on e.g. land use categories or building heights, extracted from flat files and OGC-compliant web services. The requirements on the ETL tools are now for instance the extraction of different input datasets like Web Feature Services or vector datasets and the loading of those into databases. The tools also have to manage transformations on spatial datasets like to work with spatial functions (e.g. intersection, union) or change spatial reference systems. Preliminary results suggest that many complex transformation tasks could be accomplished with the existing set of components from both software tools, while there are still many gaps in the range of available features. Both ETL tools differ in functionality and in the way of implementation of various steps. For some tasks no predefined components are available at all, which could partly be compensated by the use of the respective API (freely configurable components in Java or JavaScript).

Description: Methane pyrolysis experiments using a quartz glass-steel bubble column reactor filled with liquid tin and cylindrical quartz glass rings serving as a packed bed were conducted at various liquid metal temperature levels in the range of 930–1175 °C. Besides the liquid metal temperature, special attention was paid to the influence of the feed gas volume flow rate in the range of 50–200 mln/min and the inlet feed gas dilution with nitrogen. Increasing liquid metal temperatures resulted in increasing hydrogen yields, leading to a maximum hydrogen yield of 78% at 1175 °C and 50 mln/min methane volume flow rate. Within all experimental runs, less than 1.5 mol-% intermediate products were detected in the product gas. The produced carbon appeared as a powder consisting of flake shaped agglomerations in the size range of 15–20 μm, wherein the particle size varied from 40 nm to 100 nm. During the experiments, the produced carbon was completely separated and accumulated at the top surface of the liquid metal. Only minor quantities were transported with the off gas stream. Within the liquid metal inventory, a thin carbon layer of about 10 μm, probably partly showing the formation of nanotubes, in the hot reaction zone, had been deposited on the quartz glass reactor wall.

Description: Japan’s energy policy remains dominated by the Fukushima nuclear disaster of 2011.While the government continues to be committed to nuclear power, its future is uncertain.Japanese greenhouse gas emissions have increased significantly as nuclear energyhas been replaced by gas and coal. Ambitious policies in the transport sector promotebattery electric and fuel cell vehicles. The introduction of feed-in tariffs favoured thebuild-up of non-residential solar photovoltaics. As part of its climate commitments,Japan aims to further expand the use of renewables, improve energy efficiency andrestart nuclear energy.

Description: This IASS study considers the potential of the G20 to shape a global transition to sustainable energy, urgentlyneeded in order to achieve the UN’s climate and sustainability goals. The G20, a group of major emerging andindustrialised economies, is a high-level political forum that brings together a heterogeneous set of members.The Group carries great weight in international energy governance, and accounts for 80 percent of the world’s totalprimary energy consumption and 82 percent of global energy-related CO2 emissions. Thus, decisions and actions ofthe G20 and its members have the capacity to significantly impact global energy systems.The study analyses the energy sector developments of 14 G20 members (Argentina, Brazil, China, European Union,France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey and the United States).Short case studies trace major trends and policy initiatives in the countries and identify both potential conflictsof interest and existing common ground within the G20. Each study offers an assessment of potential impulsesoriginating from the respective case, and how these might help foster international cooperation for advancing aglobal energy transition.

Description: Table of Contents1. Introduction and Main Insights from the Study - Sybille Roehrkasten, Sonja Thielges and Rainer Quitzow http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:19069032. The G20 and its Role in Global Energy Governance - Sybille Roehrkasten and Kirsten Westphal http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:19069073. Argentina: From an Energy Stalemate Towards Shale Gas Expansion and Creating a Renewables Market - Moïra Jimeno http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:19069104. Brazil: Long Tradition of Renewables-Based Energy Supply and Ethanol Diplomacy - Sybille Roehrkasten http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:19069135. China: Emerging Global Power in Clean Energy? - Rainer Quitzow http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:19088896. The EU: In the Midst of Crisis – Downgraded SustainableEnergy Ambitions - Kirsten Westphal http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:19108887. France: Reducing Nuclear Dominance and Promoting a Low-Carbon Energy System - Carole Mathieu http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:19108918. Germany: Promoting an Energiewende Domestically and Globally - Sybille Roehrkasten and Karoline Steinbacher http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:19108959. India: Meeting Energy Needs for Development While Addressing Climate Change - Madhura Joshi and Radhika Khosla http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:191089710. Indonesia: A Long Way to Low-Carbon Development - Jens Marquardt http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:191090011. Japan: Dominated by Fukushima and Tackling Hard Problemsin Decarbonisation - Llewelyn Hughes http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:191090312. Russia: A Gas Superpower Striving for Nuclear Expansion and Starting to Support Renewables - Alexander Gusev http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:191090713. Saudi Arabia: Oil as a Burden in the Struggle for Energy Diversification - Sebastian Sons http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:191091014. South Africa: Carbon-Intensive Economy and a Regional Renewable Energy Frontrunner - Agathe Maupin http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:191091315. Turkey: Great Potential, Missing Will - Jörn Richert http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:191091616. The United States: Domestic Transitions and International Leadership Towards Low-Carbon Energy - Karoline Steinbacher http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:1910919

Description: Programs to plant millions of trees in cities around the world aim at the reduction of summer temperatures,increase of carbon storage, storm water control, and recreational space, as well as at poverty alleviation. Theseurban greening programs, however, do not take into account how closely human and natural systems are coupledin urban areas. Compared with the surroundings of cities, elevated temperatures together with high anthropogenicemissions of air and water pollutants are quite typical in urban systems. Urban and sub-urban vegetation respondto changes in meteorology and air quality and can react to pollutants. Neglecting this coupling may lead tounforeseen negative effects on air quality resulting from urban greening programs. The potential of emissions ofvolatile organic compounds (VOC) from vegetation combined with anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants toproduce ozone has long been recognized. This ozone formation potential increases under rising temperatures.Here we investigate how emissions of VOC from urban vegetation affect corresponding ground-level ozoneand PM10 concentrations in summer and especially during heat wave periods. We use the Weather Researchand Forecasting Model with coupled atmospheric chemistry (WRF-CHEM) to quantify these feedbacks inthe Berlin-Brandenburg region, Germany during the two summers of 2006 (heat wave) and 2014 (referenceperiod). VOC emissions from vegetation are calculated by MEGAN 2.0 coupled online with WRF-CHEM. Ourpreliminary results indicate that the contribution of VOCs from vegetation to ozone formation may increase bymore than twofold during heat wave periods. We highlight the importance of the vegetation for urban areas in thecontext of a changing climate and discuss potential tradeoffs of urban greening programs.

Description: A realistic simulation of physical and dynamical processes in the Arctic atmosphere and its feedbacks with the surface conditions is still a challenge for state-of-the-art Arctic climate models. This is of critical importance because studies of, for example, transport of pollutants from middle latitudes into the Arctic rely on the skill of the model in correctly representing atmospheric circulation including the key mechanisms and pathways of pollutant transport. In this work the performance of the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) with two land surface model schemes (Noah and NoahMP) and two reanalysis data sets for creation of lateral boundary conditions (ERA-interim and ASR) is evaluated focusing on meteorological surface properties and atmospheric dynamics. This includes the position and displacement of the polar dome and other features characterizing atmospheric circulation associated to sea ice maxima/minima extent within the Eurasian Arctic. The model simulations analyzed are carried out at 15-km horizontal resolution over a period of five years (2008 to 2012). The WRF model simulations are evaluated against surface meteorological data from automated weather stations and vertical profiles from radiosondes. Results show that the model is able to reproduce the main features of the atmospheric dynamics and vertical structure of the Arctic atmosphere reasonably well. The influence of the choice of the reanalyses used as initial and lateral boundary condition and of the LSM on the model results is complex and no combination is found to be clearly superior in all variables analyzed. The model results show that a more sophisticated formulation of land surface processes does not necessarily lead to significant improvements in the model results. This suggests that other factors such as the decline of the Arctic sea ice, stratosphere-troposphere interactions, atmosphere-ocean interaction, and boundary layer processes are also highly important and can have a significant influence on the model results. The “best” configuration for simulating Arctic meteorology and processes most relevant for pollutant transport (ASR + NoahMP) is then used in a simulation with WRF including aerosols and chemistry (WRF-Chem) to simulate black carbon (BC) concentrations in and around the Arctic and to assess the role of the modeled atmospheric circulation in the simulated BC concentrations inside the Arctic domain. Results from simulations with chemistry are evaluated against aerosol optical depth from several Aeronet stations and BC concentrations and particle number concentrations from several stations from the EBAS database. The results with WRF-Chem show a strong dependency of the simulated BC concentration on the modeled meteorology and the transport of the pollutants around our domain. The results also show that biases in the modeled BC concentrations can also be related to the emission data. Significant improvements of the models and of our understanding of the impact of anthropogenic BC emissions on the Arctic strongly depends on the availability of suitable, long-term observational data of concentrations of BC and particulate matter, vertical profiles of temperature and humidity and wind.

Description: This book outlines how Germans convinced their politicians to pass laws allowing citizens to make their own energy, even when it hurt utility companies to do so. It traces the origins of the Energiewende movement in Germany from the Power Rebels of Schönau to German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s shutdown of eight nuclear power plants following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident. The authors explore how, by taking ownership of energy efficiency at a local level, community groups are key actors in the bottom-up fight against climate change. Individually, citizens might install solar panels on their roofs, but citizen groups can do much more: community wind farms, local heat supply, walkable cities and more. This book offers evidence that the transition to renewables is a one-time opportunity to strengthen communities and democratize the energy sector – in Germany and around the world.

Description: This guide on Governing Tenure Rights to Commons aims to support states, communitybasedorganizations, civil society organizations, the private sector and other relevantactors, to take proactive measures to implement the standards and recommendationsof the Voluntary Guidelines on the Responsible Governance of Tenure of Land, Fisheries andForests in the Context of National Food Security (the Guidelines). The goal is to achievelegal recognition and protection of tenure rights to commons and community-basedgovernance structures.

Description: In the last decade, solar geoengineering (solar radiation management, or SRM) has received increasing consideration as a potential means to reduce risks of anthropogenic climate change. Some ideas regarding SRM that have been proposed have receded after being appropriately scrutinized, while others have strengthened through testing and critique. This process has improved the understanding of SRM's potential and limitations. However, several claims are frequently made in the academic and popular SRM discourses and, despite evidence to the contrary, pose the risk of hardening into accepted facts. Here, in order to foster a more productive and honest debate, we identify, describe, and refute five of the most problematic claims that are unsupported by existing evidence, unlikely to occur, or greatly exaggerated. These are: (A) once started, SRM cannot be stopped; (B) SRM is a right-wing project; (C) SRM would cost only a few billion dollars per year; (D) modeling studies indicate that SRM would disrupt monsoon precipitation; and (E) there is an international prohibition on outdoors research. SRM is a controversial proposed set of technologies that could prove to be very helpful or very harmful, and it warrants vigorous and informed public debate. By highlighting and debunking some persistent but unsupported claims, this paper hopes to bring rigor to such discussions.

Description: This paper examines the implications posed by the European Climate Protection Plan and the German Energy Transition. Both involve social conflicts regarding technical feasibility, norms, and values. Technological expertise alone is insufficient to resolve these normative questions and conflicts. In addition to technological expertise, social and communicative competence is therefore needed to deal with the social and cultural challenges of an energy transition. One method to cope with conflicts that arise as a result of the energy transition refers to the use of citizen participation. Many analysts of participatory processes suggest that participation, if done properly, enhances acceptability and legitimacy of a transition process, contributes to improved efficiency of decisions, and promotes factual knowledge. This paper analyses and discusses these anticipated positive effects within a theoretical framework and a corresponding empirical case study.

Description: China’s electricity supply is still strongly dependent on coal, but a strong domesticrenewable energy industry is driving rapid deployment of wind and solar energy. Furtherprogress will depend on the implementation of planned power sector reforms. Intransport, the continued proliferation of automobiles is driving growth in CO2 emissions.Investments in an electric vehicle industry may offer opportunities for decarbonisationin the long term. China’s initiative to promote green finance during its G20presidency is in line with its ambitions to promote overseas markets for its emergingclean energy industry.

Description: Lumbini, in southern Nepal, is a UNESCO world heritage site of universal value as the birthplace of the Buddha. Poor air quality in Lumbini and surrounding regions is a great concern for public health as well as for preservation, protection and promotion of Buddhist heritage and culture. Measurements of the ambient concentrations of key air pollutants (BC, PM, CO, O3) were conducted in Lumbini, first of its kind in Lumbini, during an intensive measurement period of three months (April-June 2013) in the pre-monsoon season. The measurements were carried out as a part of the international air pollution measurement campaign; SusKat-ABC (Sustainable Atmosphere for the Kathmandu Valley - Atmospheric Brown Clouds). Hourly average concentrations were: BC: 4.9±3.8 (0.3-29.9) μg/m3; CO: 344.1±160.3 (124.9-1429.7) ppbv; O3: 46.6±20.3 (0.85-118.1) ppbv; PM10: 128.8±91.9 (10.5-603.9) μg/m3; and PM2.5: 53.1±35.1 (6.1-272.2) μg/m3. These levels are comparable to heavily polluted sites in the region. The 24-h average PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations frequently (94% and 85%, respectively, of the sampled period) exceeded the WHO guideline, which implies significant health risks for the residents and visitors in the region. Clear diurnal cycles were observed for the pollutants. Occurrences of peak concentrations during the study period were due to regional forest fires and meteorological conditions conducive of transport to Lumbini. The WRF-STEM model was used to simulate the meteorology and the pollution concentration, and showed the model concentration to be lower by a factor of ~1.4-5, even though the model was able to capture the observed variability. Regionally tagged CO tracers and the chemical composition of fine mode PM2.5 was obtained from the model. The aerosol spectral light absorption coefficients obtained from Lumbini indicated presence of BC from both biomass burning and fossil fuel combustion, with more than half of the ambient BC attributable to fossil fuel combustion. Given the high pollution levels, there is a clear and urgent need for setting up a network of long-term air quality monitoring stations in the greater Lumbini region. This is a special place which demands special attention to safeguard the valuable world heritage properties as well as public health and agro-ecosystems in the region from impacts of air pollution.

Description: Air pollution is the number one environmental cause of premature deaths in Europe. Despite extensive regulations, air pollution remains a challenge, especially in urban areas. For studying summertime air quality in the Berlin–Brandenburg region of Germany, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) is set up and evaluated against meteorological and air quality observations from monitoring stations as well as from a field campaign conducted in 2014. The objective is to assess which resolution and level of detail in the input data is needed for simulating urban background air pollutant concentrations and their spatial distribution in the Berlin–Brandenburg area. The model setup includes three nested domains with horizontal resolutions of 15, 3 and 1 km and anthropogenic emissions from the TNO-MACC III inventory. We use RADM2 chemistry and the MADE/SORGAM aerosol scheme. Three sensitivity simulations are conducted updating input parameters to the single-layer urban canopy model based on structural data for Berlin, specifying land use classes on a sub-grid scale (mosaic option) and downscaling the original emissions to a resolution of ca. 1 km × 1 km for Berlin based on proxy data including traffic density and population density. The results show that the model simulates meteorology well, though urban 2 m temperature and urban wind speeds are biased high and nighttime mixing layer height is biased low in the base run with the settings described above. We show that the simulation of urban meteorology can be improved when specifying the input parameters to the urban model, and to a lesser extent when using the mosaic option. On average, ozone is simulated reasonably well, but maximum daily 8 h mean concentrations are underestimated, which is consistent with the results from previous modelling studies using the RADM2 chemical mechanism. Particulate matter is underestimated, which is partly due to an underestimation of secondary organic aerosols. NOx (NO + NO2) concentrations are simulated reasonably well on average, but nighttime concentrations are overestimated due to the model's underestimation of the mixing layer height, and urban daytime concentrations are underestimated. The daytime underestimation is improved when using downscaled, and thus locally higher emissions, suggesting that part of this bias is due to deficiencies in the emission input data and their resolution. The results further demonstrate that a horizontal resolution of 3 km improves the results and spatial representativeness of the model compared to a horizontal resolution of 15 km. With the input data (land use classes, emissions) at the level of detail of the base run of this study, we find that a horizontal resolution of 1 km does not improve the results compared to a resolution of 3 km. However, our results suggest that a 1 km horizontal model resolution could enable a detailed simulation of local pollution patterns in the Berlin–Brandenburg region if the urban land use classes, together with the respective input parameters to the urban canopy model, are specified with a higher level of detail and if urban emissions of higher spatial resolution are used.

Description: As the world’s second largest energy consumer and emitter of greenhouse gases, oneof its most important producers of oil and gas and home to the second largest capacityof renewable energy, the United States is a central actor in global energy governance.Energy policy in the United States has been characterised by an open approachwith regard to the choice of energy sources and is aimed at reaching a target trianglecomprising economic competitiveness and employment; energy security; and thedevelopment and deployment of low-carbon energy sources. This “all-of-the-abovestrategy” is reflected not only in domestic energy policy, where state initiatives alsodecisively shape the policy landscape for sustainable energy, but also in US internationalenergy activities.

Description: Realistic simulation of physical and dynamical processes happening in the Arctic surface and atmosphere, and the interacting feedbacks of these processes is still a challenge for Arctic climate modelers. This is critical when further studies involving for the example transport mechanisms and pathways of pollutants from lower latitudes into the Arctic rely on the efficiency of the model to represent atmospheric circulation, especially given the complexity of the Arctic atmosphere. In this work we evaluate model performance of the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) according to the choice of two land surface model schemes (Noah and NoahMP) and two reanalyzes data for initialization to create lateral boundary conditions (ERA-interim and ASR) to simulate surface and atmosphere dynamics including the location and displacement of the polar dome and other features characterizing atmospheric circulation associated to sea ice maxima/minima extent within the Eurasian Arctic conformed by the Nordic countries in Northern Europe and part of West Russia. Sensitivity analyses include simulations at 15km horizontal resolution within a period of five years from 2008 to 2012. The WRF model simulations are evaluated against surface meteorological data from automated weather stations and atmospheric profiles from radiosondes. Results show that the model is able to reproduce the main features of the atmospheric dynamics and vertical structure of the Arctic atmosphere reasonably well. The model is, however, sensitive to the choice of the reanalyses used for initialization and land surface scheme with significant biases in the simulated description of surface meteorology and winds, moisture and temperature profiles. The best choice of physical parameterization is then used in the WRF with coupled chemistry (WRF-Chem) to simulate BC concentrations in several case studies within the analyzed period in our domain and assess the role of modeled circulation in concentrations of BC inside our Arctic domain. Results from simulations with coupled chemistry are evaluated against several Aerosol Optical Depth of several Aeronet stations and Black Carbon concentrations and Particle Concentration Numbers from several stations from the EBAS database.

Description: Abstract. Understanding the role of climate-sensitive trace gas variabilities in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere region (UTLS) and their impact on its radiative budget requires accurate measurements. The composition of the UTLS is governed by transport and chemistry of stratospheric and tropospheric constituents, such as chlorine, nitrogen oxide and sulfur compounds. The Atmospheric chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometer AIMS has been developed to accurately measure a set of these constituents on aircraft by means of chemical ionization. Here we present a setup using SF5− reagent ions for the simultaneous measurement of trace gas concentrations of HCl, HNO3 and SO2 in the  pptv to ppmv (10−12 to 10−6 mol mol−1) range with in-flight and online calibration called AIMS-TG (Atmospheric chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometer for measurements of trace gases). Part 1 of this paper (Kaufmann et al., 2016) reports on the UTLS water vapor measurements with the AIMS-H2O configuration. The instrument can be flexibly switched between two configurations depending on the scientific objective of the mission. For AIMS-TG, a custom-made gas discharge ion source has been developed for generation of reagent ions that selectively react with HCl, HNO3, SO2 and HONO. HNO3 and HCl are routinely calibrated in-flight using permeation devices; SO2 is continuously calibrated during flight adding an isotopically labeled 34SO2 standard. In addition, we report on trace gas measurements of HONO, which is sensitive to the reaction with SF5−. The detection limit for the various trace gases is in the low 10 pptv range at a 1 s time resolution with an overall uncertainty of the measurement of the order of 20 %. AIMS has been integrated and successfully operated on the DLR research aircraft Falcon and HALO (High Altitude LOng range research aircraft). As an example, measurements conducted during the TACTS/ESMVal (Transport and Composition of the LMS/UT and Earth System Model Validation) mission with HALO in 2012 are presented, focusing on a classification of tropospheric and stratospheric influences in the UTLS region. The combination of AIMS measurements with other measurement techniques yields a comprehensive picture of the sulfur, chlorine and reactive nitrogen oxide budget in the UTLS. The different trace gases measured with AIMS exhibit the potential to gain a better understanding of the trace gas origin and variability at and near the tropopause.

Description: Every community-based marine resource management (CBMRM) inherently takes place in a highly complex social–ecological environment, and stakeholder perceptions related to various aspects of the natural and social environment guide behavior in every stage of the management process. This paper provides an introduction to the psychology of perception with regard to marine resource management. In particular, it offers a typology of CBMRM relevant perceptions along with an analysis of psychological, societal, and physical factors that modulate them. Based on this analysis, we propose the introduction of specially trained local Perception Experts (PE's), whose role will be to recognize and reflect individual perceptions of involved stakeholders, and to communicate them at community meetings where decisions are made. This empirically testable addition to current CBMRM schemes could help to increase participation, develop management measures that fit the capacities of the involved stakeholders more accurately, and hence, contribute to a faster rehabilitation of marine resources.

Description: At decadal time scales, the capability of state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean coupled climate models in predicting the precipitation in Sahel is assessed. A set of 14 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) is selected and two experiments are analysed, namely initialized decadal hindcasts and forced historical simulations. Considering the strong linkage of the atmospheric circulation signatures over West Africa with the rainfall variability, this study aims to investigate the potential of using wind fields for decadal predictions. Namely, a West African monsoon index (WAMI) is defined, based on the coherence of low (925 hPa) and high (200 hPa) troposphere wind fields, which accounts for the intensity of the monsoonal circulation. A combined empirical orthogonal functions analysis is applied to explore the wind fields’ covariance modes, and a set of indices is defined on the basis of the identified patterns. The WAMI predictive skill is assessed by comparing WAMI from coupled models with WAMI from reanalysis products and with a standardized precipitation index (SPI) from observations. Results suggest that the predictive skill is highly model dependent and it is strongly related to the WAMI definition. In addition, hindcasts are more skilful than historical simulations in both deterministic and probability forecasts, which suggests an added value of initialization for decadal predictability. Moreover, coupled models are more skilful in predicting the observed SPI than the WAMI obtained from reanalysis. WAMI performance is also compared with decadal predictions from CMIP5 models based on a Sahelian precipitation index, and an improvement in predictive skill is observed in some models when WAMI is used. Therefore, we conclude that dynamics-based indices are potentially more effective for decadal prediction of precipitation in Sahel than precipitation-based indices for those models in which Sahel rainfall variability is not well simulated. We thus recommend a two-fold approach when testing the performance of models in predicting Sahel rainfall, based not only on rainfall but also on the dynamics of the West African monsoon.This paper is a contribution to the special issue on West African climate decadal variability and its modeling, consisting of papers from the West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation (WAMME) and the African Multidisciplinary Monsoon Analyses (AMMA) projects, and coordinated by Yongkang Xue, Serge Janicot, and William Lau.

Description: Black Carbon (BC) is an important short-lived climate-forcing pollutant contributing to global warming through absorption of sunlight. At the same time, BC, as a component of particulate matter (PM) exerts adverse health effects, like decreased lung function and exacerbated asthma. Globally, anthropogenic emission sources of BC include residential heating, transport, and agricultural fires, while the dominant natural emission sources are wildfires. Despite the various adverse effects of BC, legislation that requires mandatory monitoring of BC concentrations does not currently exist in the European Union. Instead, BC is only indirectly monitored as component of PM10 and PM2.5 (particulate matter with a diameter smaller 10 μm and 2.5 μm). Before the introduction of mandatory PM10 and PM2.5 monitoring in the European Union in 2005 and 2015, respectively, 'black smoke', a surrogate for BC, was a required measurement in Germany from the early 1990s. The annual mean limit value was 14 μg m-3 from 1995 and 8 μg m-3 from 1998 onwards. Many 'black smoke' measurements were stopped in 2004, with the repeal of the regulations obtaining at the time. However, in most German federal states a limited number BC monitoring stations continued to operate. Here we present a synthesis of BC data from 213 stations across Germany covering the period between 1994 and 2014. Due to the lack of a standardized method and respective legislation, the data set is very heterogeneous relying on twelve different measurement methods including chemical, optical, and thermal-optical methods. Stations include locations classified as background, urban-background, industrial and traffic among other types. Raw data in many different formats has been modelled and integrated in a relational database, allowing various options for further data analysis. We highlight results from the year 2009, as it is the year with the largest measurement coverage based on the same measurement method, with 30 stations. In 2009 daily average concentrations at 12 background stations ranged from 0.20 to 9.10 μg m-3 BC, while at traffic sites (15 stations) concentrations ranged from 0.30 to 30.60 μg m-3 BC, and industrial sites (3 stations) showed concentrations ranging between 0.30 and 9.4 μg m-3. The seasonal cycle for the year 2009 shows a similar pattern for industrial and background stations with a tendency of higher concentrations in winter. The concentrations at traffic stations are not as clearly coupled to seasons but have a strong weekly cycle with lower concentrations during weekends. Investigating the trends in BC concentration over at least 10 years was possible for 13 stations. Preliminary results suggest that concentrations have declined at traffic and background stations between 2005 and 2014. This implies that a general reduction of BC has already been achieved. However, preliminary results also show that elevated concentrations still occur during the colder months, most likely linked to residential heating.

Description: The anticipated growth of urban population will require immense development of housing and other accompanying infrastructures. Production of currently widespread construction materials such as steel, cement, and aluminum is associated with high demands of energy as well as emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). If the global population to increase to 9.3 billion and the developing countries are to build infrastructures similar to the ones in developed countries, then 350 Gt of carbon dioxide (CO2) will be emitted only from the production of construction materials needed to develop these infrastructures . Using wood materials in construction can reduce net CO2 emissions in several ways: less energy is needed to manufacture wood products compared with alternative materials; non -energy process emissions associated with the alternative materials can be avoided (e.g., CO2 emissions in the calcination reaction used in production of cement); carbon is stored in the wood infrastructures for a long time; and the byproducts of the wood material production can be used as biofuel to replace fossil fuels. In this study, I estimate to what degree CO2 emissions from material production can be reduced, if wood is used to build infrastructures in the future. To calculate how much wood would be needed instead of steel, cement, and aluminum, I first assume the share of steel, cement, and aluminum for building housing out of the total material stock used for infrastructure development. Then, I estimate the wood mass required to replace these infrastructures. Finally, I calculate CO2 emissions from manufacturing the wood materials needed for construction and compare them to the respective CO2 amount emitted from production of steel, cement, and aluminum. This study suggests that the use of natural materials, especially wood, can substantially reduce emissions of GHG associated with future manufacturing of construction materials required to accommodate needs of the growing world’s population. Wooden buildings can also serve as sizable carbon storage with a long carbon residence time. However a substantial share of the world’s forests would have to be harvested to meet the potential demand for wooden construction materials. It remains to be seen if it is possible on a sustainable basis. It is also questionable if full transition from steel and concrete construction materials to alternative materials is possible. New construction materials based on wood as well as other natural products like clay or biochar have to be explored in order to mitigate emissions of CO2 and global warming.

Description: Thermal cracking of methane into carbon and hydrogen is considered as potential hydrogen production technology without direct CO2-emissions. In this work, a novel methane-cracking process based on a liquid-metal technology is analyzed using life cycle assessment to evaluate the process' environmental impacts. Based on lab-scale experimental data, the novel methane-cracking process is benchmarked against the existing hydrogen production routes: steam reforming and water electrolysis. We consider the following environmental impact categories: global warming, fossil depletion, metal depletion, and particulate matter formation. According to our analysis, the methane-cracking process can reduce the global warming impact by up to 64% compared to steam reforming. However, the fossil depletion impact is higher for the methane-cracking process due to the higher methane input. The fossil depletion impact can be reduced by utilizing the energy of co-produced carbon to increase process efficiency at the expense of additional CO2-emissions. Methane supply to the process and electricity demand for H2-separation were identified as crucial parameters for the process’ environmental impacts. Thus, we perform parameter studies on alternatives for supply of methane and electricity to identify locations where lowest environmental impacts can be achieved.

Description: It is no secret that the world is urbanizing very fast. If UN estimates turn out to be true, by midcentury 2.5 billion people will have joined the approximately 3.9 billion living in cities today, an urban population increase of over 60 %! It is one of the biggest questions of our time, how the 6.4 billion who will live in cities by 2050 will be fed, housed and provided with basic services in a sustainable way. What kind of infrastructure and governance models will be the most healthy in the progressing urbanization of the planet? What is the best mix between decentralization and centralization of services, infrastructure and government structures?

Description: The present work assesses the relationship between local and synoptic meteorological conditions and surface ozone concentration over Europe in spring and summer months, during the period 1998–2012 using a new interpolated data set of observed surface ozone concentrations over the European domain. Along with local meteorological conditions, the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on surface ozone is addressed through a set of airflow indices computed with a novel implementation of a grid-by-grid weather type classification across Europe. Drivers of surface ozone over the full distribution of maximum daily 8 h average values are investigated, along with drivers of the extreme high percentiles and exceedances or air quality guideline thresholds. Three different regression techniques are applied: multiple linear regression to assess the drivers of maximum daily ozone, logistic regression to assess the probability of threshold exceedances and quantile regression to estimate the meteorological influence on extreme values, as represented by the 95th percentile. The relative importance of the input parameters (predictors) is assessed by a backward stepwise regression procedure that allows the identification of the most important predictors in each model. Spatial patterns of model performance exhibit distinct variations between regions. The inclusion of the ozone persistence is particularly relevant over southern Europe. In general, the best model performance is found over central Europe, where the maximum temperature plays an important role as a driver of maximum daily ozone as well as its extreme values, especially during warmer months.

Description: The Kathmandu Valley in Nepal suffers from severe wintertime air pollution. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are key constituents of air pollution, though their specific role in the valley is poorly understood due to insufficient data. During the SusKat-ABC (Sustainable Atmosphere for the Kathmandu Valley–Atmospheric Brown Clouds) field campaign conducted in Nepal in the winter of 2012–2013, a comprehensive study was carried out to characterise the chemical composition of ambient Kathmandu air, including the determination of speciated VOCs, by deploying a proton transfer reaction time-of-flight mass spectrometer (PTR-TOF-MS) – the first such deployment in South Asia. In the study, 71 ion peaks (for which measured ambient concentrations exceeded the 2σ detection limit) were detected in the PTR-TOF-MS mass scan data, highlighting the chemical complexity of ambient air in the valley. Of the 71 species, 37 were found to have campaign average concentrations greater than 200 ppt and were identified based on their spectral characteristics, ambient diel profiles and correlation with specific emission tracers as a result of the high mass resolution (m ∕ Δm  〉  4200) and temporal resolution (1 min) of the PTR-TOF-MS. The concentration ranking in the average VOC mixing ratios during our wintertime deployment was acetaldehyde (8.8 ppb)  〉  methanol (7.4 ppb)  〉  acetone + propanal (4.2 ppb)  〉  benzene (2.7 ppb)  〉  toluene (1.5 ppb)  〉  isoprene (1.1 ppb)  〉  acetonitrile (1.1 ppb)  〉  C8-aromatics ( ∼ 1 ppb)  〉  furan ( ∼ 0.5 ppb)  〉  C9-aromatics (0.4 ppb). Distinct diel profiles were observed for the nominal isobaric compounds isoprene (m ∕ z  =  69.070) and furan (m ∕ z  =  69.033). Comparison with wintertime measurements from several locations elsewhere in the world showed mixing ratios of acetaldehyde ( ∼  9 ppb), acetonitrile ( ∼  1 ppb) and isoprene ( ∼  1 ppb) to be among the highest reported to date. Two "new" ambient compounds, namely formamide (m ∕ z  =  46.029) and acetamide (m ∕ z  =  60.051), which can photochemically produce isocyanic acid in the atmosphere, are reported in this study along with nitromethane (a tracer for diesel exhaust), which has only recently been detected in ambient studies. Two distinct periods were selected during the campaign for detailed analysis: the first was associated with high wintertime emissions of biogenic isoprene and the second with elevated levels of ambient acetonitrile, benzene and isocyanic acid from biomass burning activities. Emissions from biomass burning and biomass co-fired brick kilns were found to be the dominant sources for compounds such as propyne, propene, benzene and propanenitrile, which correlated strongly with acetonitrile (r2 〉 0.7), a chemical tracer for biomass burning. The calculated total VOC OH reactivity was dominated by acetaldehyde (24.0 %), isoprene (20.2 %) and propene (18.7 %), while oxygenated VOCs and isoprene collectively contributed to more than 68 % of the total ozone production potential. Based on known secondary organic aerosol (SOA) yields and measured ambient concentrations in the Kathmandu Valley, the relative SOA production potential of VOCs were benzene  〉  naphthalene  〉  toluene  〉  xylenes  〉  monoterpenes  〉  trimethylbenzenes  〉  styrene  〉  isoprene. The first ambient measurements from any site in South Asia of compounds with significant health effects such as isocyanic acid, formamide, acetamide, naphthalene and nitromethane have been reported in this study. Our results suggest that mitigation of intense wintertime biomass burning activities, in particular point sources such biomass co-fired brick kilns, would be important to reduce the emission and formation of toxic VOCs (such as benzene and isocyanic acid) in the Kathmandu Valley.

Description: Combustion of fuels in the residential sector for cooking and heating results in the emission of aerosol and aerosol precursors impacting air quality, human health, and climate. Residential emissions are dominated by the combustion of solid fuels. We use a global aerosol microphysics model to simulate the impact of residential fuel combustion on atmospheric aerosol for the year 2000. The model underestimates black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) mass concentrations observed over Asia, Eastern Europe, and Africa, with better prediction when carbonaceous emissions from the residential sector are doubled. Observed seasonal variability of BC and OC concentrations are better simulated when residential emissions include a seasonal cycle. The largest contributions of residential emissions to annual surface mean particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations are simulated for East Asia, South Asia, and Eastern Europe. We use a concentration response function to estimate the human health impact due to long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 from residential emissions. We estimate global annual excess adult (〉  30 years of age) premature mortality (due to both cardiopulmonary disease and lung cancer) to be 308 000 (113 300–497 000, 5th to 95th percentile uncertainty range) for monthly varying residential emissions and 517 000 (192 000–827 000) when residential carbonaceous emissions are doubled. Mortality due to residential emissions is greatest in Asia, with China and India accounting for 50 % of simulated global excess mortality. Using an offline radiative transfer model we estimate that residential emissions exert a global annual mean direct radiative effect between −66 and +21 mW m−2, with sensitivity to the residential emission flux and the assumed ratio of BC, OC, and SO2 emissions. Residential emissions exert a global annual mean first aerosol indirect effect of between −52 and −16 mW m−2, which is sensitive to the assumed size distribution of carbonaceous emissions. Overall, our results demonstrate that reducing residential combustion emissions would have substantial benefits for human health through reductions in ambient PM2.5 concentrations.

Description: The present report includes two parts. The first part is a literature review that covers specificdimensions of knowledge about Green Business Models (GBMs) in respect of conceptualdefinitions and the assessment of GBMs. The review categorises information into areas thatare deemed of interest for any practitioner wishing to support the development and growth ofgreen business models. The second part provides an overview of the ‘green financelandscape’ and classifies green finance from a structural and from a quantitative perspectivewithin the overall financial market. It further provides an overview of relevant stakeholders inthis landscape, and analyses their potential role for financing and developing green businessmodels. Both parts aim at providing background knowledge necessary to find a commonunderstanding across work processes and project partners of the Green-Win project,facilitating the further work process within the project, in particular the identification andevaluation of concrete GBMs.

Description: Climate change has significant implications for biodiversity and ecosystems. With slow progress towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions, climate engineering (or ‘geoengineering’) is receiving increasing attention for its potential to limit anthropogenic climate change and its damaging effects. Proposed techniques, such as ocean fertilization for carbon dioxide removal or stratospheric sulfate injections to reduce incoming solar radiation, would significantly alter atmospheric, terrestrial and marine environments, yet potential side-effects of their implementation for ecosystems and biodiversity have received little attention. A literature review was carried out to identify details of the potential ecological effects of climate engineering techniques. A group of biodiversity and environmental change researchers then employed a modified Delphi expert consultation technique to evaluate this evidence and prioritize the effects based on the relative importance of, and scientific understanding about, their biodiversity and ecosystem consequences. The key issues and knowledge gaps are used to shape a discussion of the biodiversity and ecosystem implications of climate engineering, including novel climatic conditions, alterations to marine systems and substantial terrestrial habitat change. This review highlights several current research priorities in which the climate engineering context is crucial to consider, as well as identifying some novel topics for ecological investigation.

Description: After years of stalemate, attracting investment in the energy sector to mitigate electricityshortages and meet rising demand are top priorities for Argentina. To this end,the new government has established main goals of increasing shale gas productionand fostering renewable energy deployment and development while drastically reducingenergy subsidies. However, investments in renewables and unconventional gas arehighly capital intensive and require long-term guarantees, while Argentina still lacksinternational financial trust. To recover financial trust, the current administration isseeking international agreements with the main financial institutions as well as the USand the EU.

Description: BEST PATHS (acronym for “BEyond State-of-the-art Technologies for rePowering Ac corridors and multi-Terminal HVDC Systems”) is a collaborative project within the FP7 framework of the European Commission that includes an MgB2-based power transmission line among its five constituent demonstrators. Led by Nexans and bringing together transmission operators, industry and research organizations, this demonstrator aims at validating the novel MgB2 technology for very high power transfer (gigawatt range). An overview of the project is presented in this paper, including the main tasks and challenges ahead, as well as the partners and their roles.

Description: The properties and the vertical structure of the mixing layer as part of the planetary boundary layer are of key importance for local air quality. They have a substantial impact on the vertical dispersion of pollutants in the lower atmosphere and thus on their concentrations near the surface. In this study, ceilometer measurements taken within the framework of the SusKat project (Sustainable Atmosphere for the Kathmandu Valley) are used to investigate the mixing layer height in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. The applied method is based on the assumption that the aerosol concentration is nearly constant in the vertical and distinctly higher within the mixing layer than in the air above. Thus, the height with the steepest gradient within the ceilometer backscatter profile marks the top of the mixing layer. Ceilometer and black carbon (BC) measurements conducted from March 2013 through February 2014 provide a unique and important dataset for the analysis of the meteorological and air quality conditions in the Kathmandu Valley. In this study the mean diurnal cycle of the mixing layer height in the Kathmandu Valley for each season (pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon and winter season) and its dependency on the meteorological situation is investigated. In addition, the impact of the mixing layer height on the BC concentration is analyzed and compared to the relevance of other important processes such as emissions, horizontal advection and deposition. In all seasons the diurnal cycle is typically characterized by low mixing heights during the night, gradually increasing after sun rise reaching to maximum values in the afternoon before decreasing again. Seasonal differences can be seen particularly in the height of the mixing layer, e.g. from on average 153/1200 m (pre-monsoon) to 241/755 m (monsoon season) during the night/day, and the duration of enhanced mixing layer heights during daytime (around 12 hours (pre-monsoon season) to 8 hours (winter)). During the monsoon season, the observed diurnal cycle typically shows the lowest amplitude and the lowest mixing height during the day and the highest in the night and morning hours of all seasons. These characteristics can mainly be explained with frequently present clouds and the associated lack of incoming solar radiation and outgoing longwave radiation. In general there is a clear anti-correlation of the BC concentration and the mixing layer height although this relation is less pronounced in the monsoon season. The shape and magnitude of the BC diurnal cycle differs between the seasons (e.g., daily maximum concentration from around 6 to 50 μg/m3 depending on the season). This is partly due to the different meteorological conditions including the mixing layer height but also caused by the different (seasonal and diurnal) time profiles of the main emission sources. From late December to April, for instance, brick kilns are major emitters of black carbon. The brick kilns emit continuously throughout the day whereas in the other months sources with more pronounced diurnal cycles, such as traffic and cooking activities, are dominating the total emissions.

Description: Biofuels have been promoted worldwide under the assumption that they can support several transformativeyet unresolved policy goals, such as transitioning towards a more secure and climate-friendly energy system,while delivering other co-benefits to workers and rural communities. Drawing on the best published evidenceto date on performance, a set of companion papers1 question many of the assumptions commonly attributed tobiofuels: their carbon neutrality, their positive effect on rural livelihoods, and (in cases of under-performance)policymakers’ ability to effectively govern for sustainability. This paper takes these findings as its starting pointand asks, “What next?” for countries wishing to advance national biofuel programmes as one of several optionsfor the necessary divestment from fossil fuels. Deriving recommendations for national biofuel programmesbased on past performance is no easy task. The wider literature highlights some of the challenges to such anendeavour – namely, that context matters deeply in shaping outcomes, thereby undermining the potential forstandardised solutions; that social and natural systems are complex, rendering interventions indeterminate intheir effects; and that deriving proscriptions for future action based on evidence of past performance requiresleaps of evidence and faith, thus involving moral hazards. And even in cases where biofuels come close to meetingexpectations, taking these successes to scale poses additional challenges inherent in the scaling processitself. By drawing on evidence of performance and the wider literature on change management, we are neverthelessable to distil a set of sine qua nons (indispensables) for sustainable biofuel governance. These recommendationsshould not be treated as a recipe for success, but as minimum conditions and “best bet” approachesrequiring testing, deliberation, and refinement through an adaptive, inclusive, and evidence-based approach topolicy design and implementation.

Description: This paper studies the effects of firms’ indebtedness on the dynamics of a monetary production economy. Starting from the work of Minsky and Palley, we build a stock-flow consistent agent-based model that emphasizes the effects of firms’ debt on macro dynamics and produce endogenous business cycles. We identify two effects of debt: an aggregate demand increasing effect and a functional income distribution effect and describe their consequences during the different phases of the cycle. These effects are specific to this study but are compatible with the existing literature.

Description: Due to its strong reliance on coal, South Africa is a middle-income country with veryhigh per capita emissions. As host of the Conference of the Parties (COP) in 2011, thecountry has embarked on a significant change of trajectory for its energy sector. In itsclimate mitigation efforts, it has introduced renewable energy auctions and furthermorefocuses on carbon capture and storage as well as energy efficiency. South Africa’sregional activities concentrate on renewables, grid integration and energy accessin Southern Africa.

Description: This paper presents an analytical estimate of various self-field losses in the superconducting MgB2 cables recently proposed for long-distance (3000 km) dc power transmission. We show the advantages of dc transmission with respect to ac taking into account hysteresis loss estimation, and we optimize the design of MgB2 cables accordingly.

Description: Our knowledge about ambient black carbon (BC) in the vast Himalayan region, a region vulnerable to impacts of global warming, is very limited due to unavailability of a long-term ambient monitoring. Here we present results from a continuous monitoring of ambient BC concentrations, with a new generation Aethalometer (AE33), over a three year period (January 2013- January 2016) at a semi-urban site in the highly polluted Kathmandu Valley in the foothills of the central Himalaya, one of the most polluted cities in the world. This is the longest time series of BC concentrations that have been monitored with AE33 (which uses the dual-spot technique for a real-time filter loading compensation) in highly polluted ambient environment. The measurements were carried out under the framework of project SusKat (Sustainable Atmosphere for the Kathmandu Valley). BC concentrations were found to be extremely high, especially in winter and the pre-monsoon period, with the hourly-averaged values often exceeding 50 μg/m3. BC concentrations showed a clear diurnal cycle with a prominent peak around 8-9 am and a second peak around 8-9 pm local time in all four seasons. Night-time BC was also fairly high. The diurnal cycle was driven by a combination of increased emissions from traffic, cooking activities, garbage burning, and lower mixing heights (˜200 m) and reduced horizontal ventilation in the mornings and evenings. BC concentrations showed significant seasonal variations - a maximum in winter season and minimum during the monsoon (rainy) season, with monthly average values in the range 5-30 μg/m3. An increase in emissions from the operation of over 100 brick kilns in winter and spring, and an increase in the use of small but numerous diesel power generators during hours with power cuts contributed significantly to ambient BC concentrations in the valley. Fractional contributions of biomass burning and fossil fuel combustion to BC was estimated based on a real-time method for loading effect compensation (using compensation parameter, k) implemented in the algorithm of the new dual-spot Aethalometer. This technique indicated that fossil fuel combustion (FF) and biomass burning (BB) contribute on average 70% and 30%, respectively, to ambient BC in the Kathmandu Valley. Relative contributions changed from season to season, e.g., BB fraction increased during November-December and March-April due to the seasonal increase in agro-residue burning and forest fires in the region, while FF fraction increased in winter due to increase in use of FF in brick factories and diesel generators. These measurements provided important information for understanding the properties of ambient BC and its impacts, especially on human health and climate, in the Kathmandu Valley and the surrounding foothills of the Himalayas.

Description: Indonesia is the biggest energy consumer in Southeast Asia and the world’s leadingcoal exporter. Its primary energy mix is dominated by oil and traditional biomass.Almost a third of its population lacks access to modern energy services. In recentyears, Indonesia has made promising steps towards a more sustainable energy supply.It has almost completely abolished fossil fuel subsidies and has announced ambitiousenergy efficiency and renewable energy targets, particularly for geothermal energy. Italso aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and engages in related internationalinitiatives. However, policy implementation remains a challenge.

Description: Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a means to cool the Earth by increasing the reflection of sunlight back to space, for example, by injecting reflective aerosol particles (or their precursors) into the lower stratosphere. Such proposed techniques would not be able to substitute for mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as a response to the risks of climate change, as they would only mask some of the effects of global warming. They might, however, eventually be applied as a complementary approach to reduce climate risks. Thus, the Earth system consequences of solar geoengineering are central to understanding its potentials and risks. Here we review the state-of-the-art knowledge about stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection and an idealized proxy for this, ‘sunshade geoengineering,’ in which the intensity of incoming sunlight is directly reduced in models. Studies are consistent in suggesting that sunshade geoengineering and stratospheric aerosol injection would generally offset the climate effects of elevated GHG concentrations. However, it is clear that a solar geoengineered climate would be novel in some respects, one example being a notably reduced hydrological cycle intensity. Moreover, we provide an overview of nonclimatic aspects of the response to stratospheric aerosol injection, for example, its effect on ozone, and the uncertainties around its consequences. We also consider the issues raised by the partial control over the climate that solar geoengineering would allow. Finally, this overview highlights some key research gaps in need of being resolved to provide sound basis for guidance of future decisions around solar geoengineering.

Description: Die Frage, wie ein langfristig tragfähiger Rahmen für die Verminderung der Stromerzeugung aus Braun- und Steinkohlekraftwerken aussehen kann, steht aktuell im Fokus der energiepolitischen Debatte. Transformative Nachhaltigkeitsforschung kann wichtige Impulse setzen, um Politik und Gesellschaft zu unterstützen, eine der zentralen Konfliktlinien der Energiewende zu bewältigen.

Description: The development of a framework for the reduction of coal-fired electricitygeneration that addresses the interests of all involved parties over thelonger term is a focal point of currentenergy policy debate. Transformativesustainability research can make avaluable contribution to the efforts ofpolicymakers and society to resolvea key conflict of the energy transition.

Description: With the adoption of its first Energy Transition Law in August 2015, France has scaledup its commitment to address global environmental issues. The transition process isintended to accelerate progress towards reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsand energy use and increasing local renewable energy production. Meanwhile, Franceaims to reduce the nuclear share in its electricity generation, which is the highest in theworld. Internationally, France pushes civil nuclear cooperation and initiatives to increasethe share of renewable energy. As chair of the COP21, it has become an internationalpioneer in green finance.

Description: Urban air quality and human health are among the key aspects of future urban planning. In order to address pollutants such as ozone and particulate matter, efforts need to be made to quantify and reduce their concentrations. One important aspect in understanding urban air quality is the influence of urban vegetation which may act as both emitter and sink for trace gases and aerosol particles. In this context, the "Berlin Air quality and Ecosystem Research: Local and long-range Impact of anthropogenic and Natural hydrocarbons 2014" (BAERLIN2014) campaign was conducted between 2 June and 29 August in the metropolitan area of Berlin and Brandenburg, Germany. The predominant goals of the campaign were (1) the characterization of urban gaseous and particulate pollution and its attribution to anthropogenic and natural sources in the region of interest, especially considering the connection between biogenic volatile organic compounds and particulates and ozone; (2) the quantification of the impact of urban vegetation on organic trace gas levels and the presence of oxidants such as ozone; and (3) to explain the local heterogeneity of pollutants by defining the distribution of sources and sinks relevant for the interpretation of model simulations. In order to do so, the campaign included stationary measurements at urban background station and mobile observations carried out from bicycle, van and airborne platforms. This paper provides an overview of the mobile measurements (Mobile BAERLIN2014) and general conclusions drawn from the analysis. Bicycle measurements showed micro-scale variations of temperature and particulate matter, displaying a substantial reduction of mean temperatures and particulate levels in the proximity of vegetated areas compared to typical urban residential area (background) measurements. Van measurements extended the area covered by bicycle observations and included continuous measurements of O3, NOx, CO, CO2 and point-wise measurement of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) at representative sites for traffic- and vegetation-affected sites. The quantification displayed notable horizontal heterogeneity of the short-lived gases and particle number concentrations. For example, baseline concentrations of the traffic-related chemical species CO and NO varied on average by up to ±22.2 and ±63.5 %, respectively, on the scale of 100 m around any measurement location. Airborne observations revealed the dominant source of elevated urban particulate number and mass concentrations being local, i.e., not being caused by long-range transport. Surface-based observations related these two parameters predominantly to traffic sources. Vegetated areas lowered the pollutant concentrations substantially with ozone being reduced most by coniferous forests, which is most likely caused by their reactive biogenic VOC emissions. With respect to the overall potential to reduce air pollutant levels, forests were found to result in the largest decrease, followed by parks and facilities for sports and leisure. Surface temperature was generally 0.6–2.1 °C lower in vegetated regions, which in turn will have an impact on tropospheric chemical processes. Based on our findings, effective future mitigation activities to provide a more sustainable and healthier urban environment should focus predominantly on reducing fossil-fuel emissions from traffic as well as on increasing vegetated areas.

Description: Very high particulate matter (PM) and black carbon (BC) concentrations are observed in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. With an aim of gaining a better understanding of the dynamics of these air pollutants, PM and BC simulations with the WRF-Chem model have been performed. The comparison of the simulation results with measurements shows that the model strongly underestimated the measured PM and BC levels. It is concluded that this is mainly due to missing up-to-date high resolution information on emissions in the valley.

Description: The chapter addresses perspectives and societal appetite for risks associated with unconventional oil and gas development on public health. It further examines the public’s perception of risks surrounding the industry, both in the United States and in Europe. The authors relate recent regulatory decisions to both these issues: evidence for risk and perception of risk.

Description: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is preparing a report on keeping global warming below 1.5 °C. How the panel chooses to deal with the option of solar geoengineering will test the integrity of scientific climate policy advice.

Description: Here we present a comparison of some countriesof interest: The US, Germany, the Netherlands andRussia, with a critical investigation of their nationalinventories (e.g., data acquisition, monitoring, etc.)and emphasis on the large discrepancies in lossesreported across each of the gas segments. Of particularrelevance is the case of the US, where estimationsof gas leakage rates during upstream operationsare considerably higher than European rates. Similarinvestigations are lacking worldwide, but there isincreasing awareness of this issue, with several initiativesoriginating from international institutions(UNECE), NGOs (CCAC) and gas operators(Marcogaz). To achieve the ambitious internationalgoals outlined in the Paris Climate Agreement, itis crucial for policy makers to take appropriate andtimely measures in collaboration with the naturalgas industry, to empirically inspect and mitigatemethane emissions, whose effect on global temperatureis of similar concern to that of carbon dioxide.

Description: In an increasingly urbanized world, air pollution mitigation is considered one of most important issues in city planning. Urban trees help to improve air quality by facilitating widespread deposition of various gases and particles through the provision of large surface areas as well as through their influence on microclimate and air turbulence. However, many of these trees produce wind-dispersed pollen (a known allergen) and emit a range of gaseous substances that take part in photochemical reactions – all of which can negatively affect air quality. The degree to which these air-quality impacts are manifested depends on species-specific tree properties: that is, their “traits”. We summarize and discuss the current knowledge on how such traits affect urban air pollution. We also present aggregated traits of some of the most common tree species in Europe, which can be used as a decision-support tool for city planning and for improving urban air-quality models.

Description: Anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and methane - key greenhouse gases (GHGs) - are primary causes of global warming and resultant impacts. The atmospheric warming is more pronounced and likely to cause more serious damage in vulnerable areas such as the Hindukush-Karakorum-Himalayan region (HKH). The HKH region is a data gap region according to the 5th Assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC). In order to understand the mixing ratios and variability of the key GHGs in the foothills of the Central Himalaya, we carried out continuous measurements of CO2, CH4, CO, and water vapor at Bode (an urban site in the Kathmandu valley, Nepal) for a year (March 2013 - Feb 2014), and again at Bode and at Chanban (a background outside the Valley) for 3 months (July 15 - Oct 3, 2015), with two state-of-the-art cavity ring-down instruments (Picarro G2401). The measurements were carried out as a part of the international air pollution measurement campaign: SusKat- ABC (Sustainable atmosphere for the Kathmandu Valley - Atmospheric Brown Clouds). The annual average CO2 and CH4 concentrations at Bode were 419 ± 24 and 2.192 ± 0.224 ppm, respectively, which are notably higher than those observed at the background site at Mauna Loa Observatory in the same period. The CO2concentration at Bode was high during the pre-monsoon period and low during the monsoon, while CH4 was high in winter and lower during the pre-monsoon period. The monthly CO2concentration was highest in April. Forest fires and agro-waste burning in the region, and the local emissions in the Kathmandu valley were the main sources of the high CO2 in the pre-monsoon period. CH4 showed a maximum in September due to additional emissions from paddy fields. Seasonally, winter has the highest CH4 concentration which is due to brick production, which is a seasonal activity, and other local sources combined with the shallow mixing layer height in winter. The diurnal pattern of CO2 and CH4 showed a high morning peak (7:00-8:00 local time), a daytime low and a nighttime high in all seasons. CO showed similar diurnal patterns in the pre-monsoon and winter. The high concentrations of CO2 and CH4 from January to April were primarily due to emissions from brick industries located in the south-east and eastern side of the valley. The concentrations of CO2, CH4 and CO at the rural site outside the valley (Chanban) were 3.8%, 12% and 64% lower than corresponding concentrations at Bode (urban site) during 3 months of observations. The difference in CO2, CH4 and CO concentrations between urban and rural sites indicates that the the Kathmandu Valley is highly affected by local emission sources, which, if addressed with appropriate mitigation measures, can bring substantial benefits to both local air quality and GHG reduction.

Description: nder its special initiative “One World, No Hunger” (SEWOH), the GermanFederal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) is prioritizingefforts to deliver food security and enhance the management of naturalresources. The protection and rehabilitation of agricultural land managed bysmallholder farmers are central to this dual agenda and form the objectives ofa GIZ programme implemented in five countries. Seeking to explore new formsof development cooperation, SEWOH mandated the Global Soil Forum (GSF)to accompany the work of the GIZ through transdisciplinary research. Theaccompanying research project focuses on the socio-economic and culturalfactors that constrain the uptake of sustainable land management (SLM) techniquesby smallholder farmers. The GSF’s approach stresses co-developmentand the pursuit of research themes with local partners, including researchers,policymakers, actors of development cooperation, civil society organisations,and farmers.

Description: Air quality and climate change are inexorably linked from their emission sources to their impacts on climate, human health, and ecosystems, including agriculture. However, in global environmental change and sustainability policies the link between air quality and climate change is often ignored. To facilitate including the link between air pollution and climate change in the policy process, three key considerations (1) mix of emissions, (2) lifetime, and (3) benefits and trade-offs should be taken into account. These three key considerations will help decision makers understand how proposed policies may impact the emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases and their resulting impacts on climate, human health, and ecosystems, thus reducing unintended consequences and likely resulting in additional economic and environmental benefits.

Description: Over the last 50 years, German energy policy has ranged from strong enthusiasm for both coal and nuclear energy to deep skepticism. The most dramatic changes with respect to energy policies have occurred as a response to nuclear accidents, yet the accidental and unintended effects of coal policies are also important in influencing the trajectory. The newly emerging climate debate prevented the coal industry from acting as a substitute for the diminishing share of nuclear power. In 2011 the conservative government announced the Energiewende (‘energy transformation’) and decided to reduce the amount of fossil fuels from 80% of the energy supply to 20% by 2050. However, while the verdict on nuclear was unequivocal with a final phase-out date of 2022, the share of coal in the electricity market did not decrease and the amount of carbon dioxide released into the air slightly increased from 2011 to 2013. There are growing conflicts over the immediate costs and practicalities of coal replacement. Consequently, the future of coal in Germany is still relatively open and contested.

Description: Land is under pressure from a number of demands, including the need for increased supplies of bioenergy. While bioenergy is an important ingredient in many pathways compatible with reaching the 2 °C target, areas where cultivation of the biomass feedstock would be most productive appear to co-host other important ecosystems services. We categorize global geo-data on land availability into productivity deciles, and provide a geographically explicit assessment of potentials that are concurrent with EU sustainability criteria. The deciles unambiguously classify the global productivity range of potential land currently not in agricultural production for biomass cultivation. Results show that 53 exajoule (EJ) sustainable biomass potential are available from 167 million hectares (Mha) with a productivity above 10 tons of dry matter per hectare and year (tD Mha−1 a−1), while additional 33 EJ are available on 264 Mha with yields between 4 and 10 tD M ha−1 a−1: some regions lose less of their highly productive potentials to sustainability concerns than others and regional contributions to bioenergy potentials shift when less productive land is considered. Challenges to limit developments to the exploitation of sustainable potentials arise in Latin America, Africa and Developing Asia, while new opportunities emerge for Transition Economies and OECD countries to cultivate marginal land.

Description: Improving the sustainability of traditional resource-based cities in China has been a core issue and policy-priority for Chinese government to establish long-term ecological civilization, particularly for northeastern China which is recognized as a typical agglomeration area of resources cities. In this study, we establish a three-layer index system consisting of a comprehensive layer, systemic layer, and variable layer, and including 22 indicators which are grouped into economic, social and environmental subsystems. After that, the TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) method was applied to measure and rank the sustainability of the selected 15 typical resource-based cities in northeast China, and then a GIS (Geographical Information System) technique based on the software of SuperMap was applied to map the sustainability in terms of the spatial effects among these cities. The results reveal that a unilateral improvement of a subsystem did not mean an improvement or contribution to whole system. In detail, during the past 15 years from 2000 to 2015, the comprehensive sustainability of resource-based cities in Northeastern China shows a declining trend in the mass, and the sustainability of the economic subsystem shows increase; the sustainability of the social system remains stable, while the environmental subsystem shows decrease. These situations might result from policy interventions during the past 15 years, therefore, promoting the sustainability of resource-based cities needs a historical approach, which should focus on the coordinated development of its economic, social, and environmental subsystems.

Description: Calming the Storm presents diverse perspectives on some of the most vital questions raised by climate engineering: Who has the right to make decisions about such global technological efforts? What have we learned from the decisions that caused the climate to change that might shed light on efforts to reverse that change? What frameworks and metaphors are helpful in thinking about climate engineering, and which are counterproductive? What religious beliefs, practices, and rituals can help people to imagine and evaluate the prospect of engineering the climate?

Description: Indo–Gangetic Plain (IGP) is one of the most polluted regions in the world. Despite numbers of studies conducted at urban site, few data are available at rural area. In this study, characteristics of 15 particle-bound priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) of total suspended particles (TSPs) collected at a typical rural area (Lumbini) of IGP from April 2013 to March 2014 were reported. The results showed that annual average TSP and PAH concentrations were 209 ± 123 μg/m3 and 94.8 ± 54.6 ng/m3, respectively, which were similar to those of large cities such as Agra and Delhi in the upwind adjacent regions. Clear seasonal variation of TSP and PAH concentrations was observed, with the highest average concentration occurring in winter followed by the pre-monsoon, post-monsoon, and monsoon seasons, reflecting combined influence of source strength and monsoon circulation on PAH concentrations of Lumbini. Positive matrix factorization analysis showed that biomass combustion (50.6%) and vehicular emissions (30.4%) were first two sources of PAHs, followed by coal combustion (11.6%) and air-soil exchange (7.4%), in line with that of diagnostic molecular ratios results. Because of extensive agro-residue burning, intensive forest fires, and conducive weather conditions, contribution of biomass burning during non-monsoon season (55.7%) was higher than that of monsoon season (42.1%). The total BaP equivalent concentration (BaPeq) of particulate PAHs ranged between 2.51 and 47.3 ng/m3, was 2–40 times higher than the WHO guideline (1 ng/m3), implying local residents were at risk for adverse health effects.

Description: Our understanding of the transport of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from the Indo–Gangetic Plains(IGP) to the Himalayas remains limited. Concentrations of PAHs were therefore measured in total suspendedparticles (TSP) from six sites along two south–north transects across the central Himalayas. Spatially, the annualaverage TSP and PAH (especially 5- and 6-ring) concentrations were found to decrease noticeably along bothtransects. The dry deposition fluxes had similar distribution pattern with the ambient PAH levels. Moreover, annualTSP and PAH concentrations exhibited a logarithmic decreasing pattern with increasing elevation especially inthe non-monsoon seasons (TSP: y=-57.3lnx+552, R2=0.952; PAHs: y=-26.8lnx+229, R2=0.948). The TSP andPAH concentrations showed a clear seasonal variation, with the minimum concentrations around the mid-monsoonseason and the maximum concentrations in winter season at Lumbini and Pokhara. While at other remote sites thesepollutants were slightly higher during the non-monsoon season than those in the monsoon season. The diagnosticratio suggested that atmospheric PAHs from the Nepal sites were mainly associated with emission of biomass,coal burning and petroleum combustion. A similar composition pattern was found between the two sides of theHimalayas, suggesting that the northern side of the Himalayas may be affected by anthropogenic emissions fromthe IGP due to long-range transportation as well as the unique mountain/valley breeze system which bring pollutionfrom the IGP into Tibet across the high Himalayas.

Description: Under its special initiative “One World, No Hunger” (SEWOH), the GermanFederal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) is prioritisingefforts to deliver food security and enhance the management of naturalresources. The protection and rehabilitation of agricultural land managed bysmallholder farmers are central to this dual agenda and form the objectives ofa GIZ programme implemented in five countries. Seeking to explore new formsof development cooperation, SEWOH mandated the Global Soil Forum (GSF)to accompany the work of the GIZ through transdisciplinary research. Theaccompanying research project focuses on the socio-economic and culturalfactors that constrain the uptake of sustainable land management (SLM) techniquesby smallholder farmers. The GSF’s approach stresses co-developmentand the pursuit of research themes with local partners, including researchers,policymakers, development cooperation actors, civil society organisations,and farmers.

Description: Black carbon, a component of particulate matter (PM), causes significant harm to public health (WHO, 2012) and has also been identified as a major climate forcer, ranking alongside methane and just behind carbon dioxide (Bond et al., 2013). Found almost everywhere in the atmosphere, black carbon creates warming as it absorbs sunlight. And as black carbon is emitted directly by combustion in, for example, motorized vehicles and traditional cookstoves, it also carries toxins such as polycyclic aromatic compounds.