ALBERT

Beschreibung: Extra-tropical windstorms are one of the costliest natural hazards affecting Europe, and windstorms that develop a sting jet are extremely damaging. A sting jet is a mesoscale core of very high wind speeds that occurs in Shapiro–Keyser type cyclones, and high-resolution models are required to adequately model sting jets. Here, we develop a low-cost methodology to automatically detect sting jets, using the characteristic warm seclusion of Shapiro–Keyser cyclones and the slantwise descent of high wind speeds, within pan-European 2.2 km convection-permitting climate model (CPM) simulations. The representation of wind gusts is improved with respect to ERA-Interim reanalysis data compared to observations; this is linked to better representation of cold conveyor belts and sting jets in the CPM. Our analysis indicates that Shapiro–Keyser cyclones, and those that develop sting jets, are the most damaging windstorms in present and future climates. The frequency of extreme windstorms is projected to increase by 2100 and a large contribution comes from sting jet storms. Furthermore, extreme wind speeds and their future changes are underestimated in the global climate model (GCM) compared to the CPM. We conclude that the CPM adds value in the representation of extreme winds and surface wind gusts and can provide improved input for impact models compared to coarser resolution models.

Beschreibung: A set of cloud-permitting-scale numerical simulations during January–February 2018 is used to examine the diurnal cycle (DC) of precipitation and near-surface variables (e.g., 2 m temperature, 10 m wind and convergence) over the Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent under the impacts of shore-orthogonal ambient winds (SOAWs). It is found that the DC of these variables and their variabilities of daily maxima, minima, and diurnal amplitudes vary over land, sea, and coastal regions. Among all variables, the DC of precipitation has the highest linear correlation with near-surface convergence (near-surface temperature) over coastal (noncoastal) regions. The correlations among the DCs of precipitation, wind, and heating are greater over the ocean than over land. Sine curves can model accurately the DCs of most variables over the ocean, but not over land. SOAWs act to influence the DC mainly by affecting the diurnal amplitude of the considered variables, with DC being stronger under more strengthened offshore SOAWs, though variable dependence and regional variability exist. Composite analysis over Sumatra reveals that under weak SOAWs, shallow clouds are dominant and cause a pre-moistening effect, supporting shallow-to-deep convection transition. A sea breeze circulation (SBC) with return flow aloft can develop rapidly. Cold pools are better able to trigger new updrafts and contribute to the upscale growth and inland migration of deep convection. In addition, warm gravity waves can propagate upward throughout the troposphere, thereby supporting a strong DC. In contrast, under strong SOAWs, both shallow and middle-high clouds prevail and persist throughout the day. The evolution of moistening and SBC is reduced, leading to weak variation in vertical motion and rainwater confined to the boundary layer. Large-scale winds, moisture, and convection are discussed to interpret how strong SOAWs affect the DC of Sumatra.

Beschreibung: Southern hemisphere subtropical anticyclones are projected to change in a warmer climate during both austral summer and winter. A recent study of CMIP 5 & 6 projections found a combination of local diabatic heating changes and static-stability-induced changes in baroclinic eddy growth as the dominant drivers. Yet the underlying mechanisms forcing these changes still remain uninvestigated. This study aims to enhance our mechanistic understanding of what drives these Southern Hemisphere anticyclones changes during both seasons. Using an AGCM, we decompose the response to CO2-induced warming into two components: (1) the fast atmospheric response to direct CO2 radiative forcing, and (2) the slow atmospheric response due to indirect sea surface temperature warming. Additionally, we isolate the influence of tropical diabatic heating with AGCM added heating experiments. As a complement to our numerical AGCM experiments, we analyze the Atmospheric and Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project experiments. Results from sensitivity experiments show that slow subtropical sea surface temperature warming primarily forces the projected changes in subtropical anticyclones through baroclinicity change. Fast CO2 atmospheric radiative forcing on the other hand plays a secondary role, with the most notable exception being the South Atlantic subtropical anticyclone in austral winter, where it opposes the forcing by sea surface temperature changes resulting in a muted net response. Lastly, we find that tropical diabatic heating changes only significantly influence Southern Hemisphere subtropical anticyclone changes through tropospheric wind shear changes during austral winter.

Beschreibung: The widely used 15-year Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data sets do not conserve global total mass. They have a spurious decreasing trend of ~ 280 Gt/year. Various regions contribute differently to the global total mass loss error, with the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) generating ~ 10% of the error alone. Atmospheric parameters from reanalysis datasets drive a well-tested ice model to generate mass variation time series over the GrIS for 2002–2015. Because shorter timescale spikes of ~ 10–30 Gt in GRACE measurements are physically based, only the overall trend of ~ 30 Gt/year requires correcting. A more accurate mass loss rate estimate for 2002–2015 is ~ 120 Gt/year, considerably below previous estimates. With the water redistribution to lower latitudes and other effects from a warming climate, the nontidal Earth moment of inertia (MOI) also increases. After rectification, the GRACE measured mass redistribution shows a steady, statistically robust (passed a two-tailed t-test at p = 0.04 for dof = 15) rate of MOI increase reaching ~ 10.1 × 1027 kg m2/year, equivalent to a 10.91 μs/year increase in the length of a day, during 2002–2017.

Beschreibung: Atmospheric rivers (ARs) that reach the complex terrain of High Mountain Asia (HMA) cause significant hydrological impacts for millions of people. While ARs are often associated with precipitation extremes and can cause floods and debris flows affecting populated communities, little is known about ARs that reach as far inland as HMA. This paper characterizes AR types and investigates dynamical mechanisms associated with the development of ARs that typically affect HMA. Combined empirical orthogonal function (cEOF) analysis using integrated water vapor transport (IVT) is applied to days where an AR reaches HMA. K-means cluster analysis applied to the first two principal components uncovered three subtypes of AR events with distinct synoptic characteristics during winter and spring months. The first subtype increases precipitation and IVT in Western HMA and is associated with a zonally oriented wave train propagating within the westerly jet waveguide. The second subtype is associated with enhanced southwesterly IVT, anomalous upper-level cyclonic circulation centered on 45$$^circ $$ ∘ E, and precipitation in Northwestern HMA. The third subtype shows anomalous precipitation in Eastern HMA and southwesterly IVT across the Bay of Bengal. Interannual variations in the frequency of HMA ARs and relationships with various teleconnection patterns show that western HMA AR subtypes are sensitive to well-known remote large-scale climate factors, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, and the Siberian High. These results provide synoptic characterization of the three types of ARs that reach HMA and reveal the previously unexplored significance of their contribution to winter and spring precipitation.