ALBERT

Description: Many climate models strongly underestimate the two most important atmospheric feedbacks operating in El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the positive (amplifying) zonal surface wind feedback and negative (damping) surface-heat flux feedback (hereafter ENSO atmospheric feedbacks, EAF), hampering realistic representation of ENSO dynamics in these models. Here we show that the atmospheric components of climate models participating in the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) when forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SST), already underestimate EAF on average by 23%, but less than their coupled counterparts (on average by 54%). There is a pronounced tendency of atmosphere models to simulate stronger EAF, when they exhibit a stronger mean deep convection and enhanced cloud cover over the western equatorial Pacific (WEP), indicative of a stronger rising branch of the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC). Further, differences in the mean deep convection over the WEP between the coupled and uncoupled models explain a large part of the differences in EAF, with the deep convection in the coupled models strongly depending on the equatorial Pacific SST bias. Experiments with a single atmosphere model support the relation between the equatorial Pacific atmospheric mean state, the SST bias and the EAF. An implemented cold SST bias in the observed SST forcing weakens deep convection and reduces cloud cover in the rising branch of the PWC, causing weaker EAF. A warm SST bias has the opposite effect. Our results elucidate how biases in the mean state of the PWC and equatorial SST hamper a realistic simulation of the EAF.

Description: We explore the predictability of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) and the potential influence of climate model bias on SST predictions over the tropical Atlantic. Two statistical methods are used to examine the skill in forecasting tropical Atlantic SST anomalies (SSTAs): linear inverse modeling (LIM) and analogue forecast (AF). The statistical models are trained either with observations or with data from two control integrations of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), which only differ with respect to the resolution of its atmospheric component. Observed SSTAs suggest that Tropical Atlantic climatic changes are potentially predictable at lead times of up to 6 months over large parts of the Tropical Atlantic. The SSTAs from the KCM version employing a high-resolution atmosphere model (KCM-HRES) is potentially predictable at a level comparable to that derived from the observations, whereas the SSTAs from the KCM version employing a low-resolution atmosphere model (KCM-LRES) is considerably less potentially predictable. We show that the enhanced potential predictability in the former KCM version can be very likely related to the improved representation of ENSO-like dynamics and its seasonality. We used the statistical models in true forecast mode, i.e. the prediction schemes were trained from data independent of the forecast period. Using observed SSTAs to train the LIM yields significant skill in forecasting observed SSTAs at lead times of up to 4 months across all calendar months, which is mostly restricted to the northern and equatorial western Tropical Atlantic. Similar patterns, but with lower skill, are found when the models’ SSTAs are used, in which LIM trained with the KCM-HRES generally yields higher skills than that from the KCM-LRES. Applying AF yields significant skills in predicting observed SSTAs over the same regions, but the forecast skills are considerably smaller. When the SSTAs together with either sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies or dynamic sea level (DSL) anomalies from the KCM are used to construct the statistical models, the prediction of observed equatorial Atlantic SSTAs can be improved, with significant skill enhancement at lead times of up to 4 months in limited regions. An optimal initial SSTA pattern is found, which results in the largest transient anomaly growth over the entire domain. Independent of external forces, this amplification is developed internally; meaning that the seasonal forecast might be more sensitive to initial conditions than currently thought.

Description: The 1888 Ritter Island volcanic sector collapse triggered a regionally damaging tsunami. Historic eyewitness accounts allow the reconstruction of the arrival time, phase and height of the tsunami wave at multiple locations around the coast of New Guinea and New Britain. 3D seismic interpretations and sedimentological analyses indicate that the catastrophic collapse of Ritter Island was preceded by a phase of deep-seated gradual spreading within the volcanic edifice and accompanied by a submarine explosive eruption, as the volcanic conduit was cut beneath sea level. However, the potential impact of the deep-seated deformation and the explosive eruption on tsunami genesis is unclear. For the first time, it is possible to parameterise the different components of the Ritter Island collapse with 3D seismic data, and thereby test their relative contributions to the tsunami. The modelled tsunami arrival times and heights are in good agreement with the historic eyewitness accounts. Our simulations reveal that the tsunami was primarily controlled by the displacement of the water column by the collapsing cone at the subaerial-submarine boundary and that the submerged fraction of the slide mass and its mobility had only a minor effect on tsunami genesis. This indicates that the total slide volume, when incorporating the deep-seated deforming mass, is not directly scalable for the resulting tsunami height. Furthermore, the simulations show that the tsunamigenic impact of the explosive eruption energy during the Ritter Island collapse was only minor. However, this relationship may be different for other volcanogenic tsunami events with smaller slide volumes or larger magnitude eruptions, and should not be neglected in tsunami simulations and hazard assessment.

Description: The Hikurangi Margin off the east coast of the North Island (Te Ika-a-Māui) is a tectonically active subduction zone and the location of New Zealand’s largest gas hydrate province. Faults are internally complex volumetric zones that may play a significant role in the migration of fluids beneath the seafloor. The combined processes of deformation and fluid migration result in the formation of concentrated hydrate accumulations along accretionary ridges. It is not fully understood to what extent faults control fluid migration along the Hikurangi Margin, and whether deep-seated thrust faults provide a pathway for thermogenic gas to migrate up from sources at depth. Using 2D models based on seismic data from the region we investigated the role of thrust faults in facilitating fluid migration and contributing to the formation of concentrated gas hydrates. By altering permeability properties of the fault zones in these transient state models we can determine whether faults are required to act as fluid flow pathways. In this study we focus on two study sites offshore southern Wairarapa, using realistic yet simplified fault geometries derived from 2D seismic lines. The results of these models allow us to start to disentangle the complex relationship between fault zone structure, permeability, geometry, fluid migration and gas hydrate formation. Based on the model outputs we propose that faults act as primary pathways facilitating fluid migration and are critical in the formation of concentrated gas hydrate deposits.

Description: We project changes of the Aleutian Low (AL) under global warming using ensemble simulations with a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model, the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). In the global warming simulations, the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration increases by 1% per year from the preindustrial level of 286.2 ppm to a quadruple value in 140 years. Results from the 40 members of an ensemble simulation show an intensification of the AL such that ensemble mean North Pacific Index (NPI) is decreased by 2.71 hPa. It is also accompanied with an expansion of the AL to north. While the effect of weakened land-ocean thermal contrast and SST warming in the eastern tropical Pacific on the AL strength are relatively weak and marginally significant, sea ice loss in the marginal seas of the North Pacific, such as the Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk, increases the surface air temperature and makes pressure lower over the Bering Sea and the Aleutian Islands. Especially, sea ice loss in the Okhotsk Sea drives the SLP change around the Aleutian Islands and contributes to the strengthening of the AL.

Description: Explaining the dynamics of gas-saturated live petroleum in deep water remains a challenge. Recently, Pesch et al. (Environ. Eng. Sci. 2018, 35, 289−299) reported laboratory experiments on methane-saturated oil droplets under emulated deep-water conditions, providing an opportunity to elucidate the underlying dynamical processes. We explain these observations with the Texas A&M Oil spill/Outfall Calculator (TAMOC), which models the pressure-, temperature-, and composition-dependent interactions between: oil-gas phase transfer; aqueous dissolution; and densities and volumes of liquid oil droplets, gas bubbles, and two-phase droplet-bubble pairs. TAMOC reveals that aqueous dissolution removed 〉95% of the methane from ~3.5-mm live oil droplets within 14.5 min, prior to gas bubble formation, during the experiments of Pesch et al. Additional simulations indicate that aqueous dissolution, fluid density changes, and gas-oil phase transitions (ebullition, condensation) may all contribute to the fates of live oil and gas in deep water, depending on the release conditions. Illustrative model scenarios suggest that 5-mm diameter gas bubbles released at 〈470 m water depth can transport methane, ethane, and propane to the water surface. Ethane and propane can reach the water surface from much deeper releases of 5-mm diameter live oil droplets, during which ebullition occurs at water depths of 〈70 m.

Description: Shell formation and repair occurs under the control of mantle epithelial cells in bivalve molluscs. However, limited information is available on the precise acid–base regulatory machinery present within these cells, which are fundamental to calcification. Here, we isolate mantle epithelial cells from the Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas and utilise live cell imaging in combination with the fluorescent dye, BCECF-AM to study intracellular pH (pHi) regulation. To elucidate the involvement of various ion transport mechanisms, modified seawater solutions (low sodium, low bicarbonate) and specific inhibitors for acid–base proteins were used. Diminished pH recovery in the absence of Na+ and under inhibition of sodium/hydrogen exchangers (NHEs) implicate the involvement of a sodium dependent cellular proton extrusion mechanism. In addition, pH recovery was reduced under inhibition of carbonic anhydrases. These data provide the foundation for a better understanding of acid–base regulation underlying the physiology of calcification in bivalves.

Description: Chemical investigation of the marine bryozoan Flustra foliacea collected in Iceland resulted in isolation of 13 new bromotryptamine alkaloids, flustramines Q-W (1-7) and flustraminols C-H (8-13), and two new imidazole alkaloids, flustrimidazoles A and B (14 and 15), together with 12 previously described compounds (16-27). Their structures were established by detailed spectroscopic analysis using 1D and 2D NMR and HRESIMS. Structure 2 was verified by calculations of the 13C and 1H NMR chemical shifts using density functional theory. The relative and absolute configurations of the new compounds were elucidated on the basis of coupling constant analysis, NOESY, [α]D, and ECD spectroscopic data, in addition to chemical derivatization. The compounds were tested for in vitro anti-inflammatory activity using a dendritic cell model. Eight compounds (1, 3, 5, 13, 16, 18, 26, and 27) decreased dendritic cell secretion of the pro-inflammatory cytokine IL-12p40, and two compounds (4 and 14) increased secretion of the anti-inflammatory cytokine IL-10. Deformylflustrabromine B (27) showed the most potent anti-inflammatory effect (IC50 2.9 μM). These results demonstrate that F. foliacea from Iceland expresses a broad range of brominated alkaloids, many without structural precedents. The potent anti-inflammatory activity in vitro of metabolite 27 warrants further investigations into its potential as a lead for inflammation-related diseases.

Description: California hosts ∼124,000 abandoned and plugged (AP) oil and gas wells, ∼38,000 idle wells, and ∼63,000 active wells, whose methane (CH4) emissions remain largely unquantified at levels below ∼2 kg CH4 h–1. We sampled 121 wells using two methods: a rapid mobile plume integration method (detection ∼0.5 g CH4 h–1) and a more sensitive static flux chamber (detection ∼1 × 10–6 g CH4 h–1). We measured small but detectable methane emissions from 34 of 97 AP wells (mean emission: 0.286 g CH4 h–1). In contrast, we found emissions from 11 of 17 idle wells—which are not currently producing (mean: 35.4 g CH4 h–1)—4 of 6 active wells (mean: 189.7 g CH4 h–1), and one unplugged well—an open casing with no infrastructure present (10.9 g CH4 h–1). Our results support previous findings that emissions from plugged wells are low but are more substantial from idle wells. In addition, our smaller sample of active wells suggests that their reported emissions are consistent with previous studies and deserve further attention. Due to limited access, we could not measure wells in most major active oil and gas fields in California; therefore, we recommend additional data collection from all types of wells but especially active and idle wells.