ALBERT

Note: Contents: 1 Introduction and examples. - 1.1 Introduction. - 1.2 Why Bayes?. - 1.2.1 Estimating the probability of a rare event. - 1.2.2 Building a predictive model. - 1.3 Where we are going. - 1.4 Discussion and further references. - 2 Belief, probability and exchangeability. - 2.1 Belief functions and probabilities. - 2.2 Events, partitions and Bayes' rule. - 2.3 Independence. - 2.4 Random variables. - 2.4.1 Discrete random variables. - 2.4.2 Continuous random variables. - 2.4.3 Descriptions of distributions. - 2.5 Joint distributions. - 2.6 Independent random variables. - 2.7 Exchangeability. - 2.8 de Finetti's theorem. - 2.9 Discussion and further references. - 3 One-parameter models. - 3.1 The binomial model. - 3.1.1 Inference for exchangeable binary data. - 3.1.2 Confidence regions. - 3.2 The Poisson model. - 3.2.1 Posterior inference . - 3.2.2 Example: Birth rates. - 3.3 Exponential families and conjugate priors. - 3.4 Discussion and further references. - 4 Monte Carlo approximation. - 4.1 The Monte Carlo method. - 4.2 Posterior inference for arbitrary functions. - 4.3 Sampling from predictive distributions. - 4.4 Posterior predictive model checking. - 4.5 Discussion and further references. - 5 The normal model. - 5.1 The normal model. - 5.2 Inference for the mean, conditional on the variance. - 5.3 Joint inference for the mean and variance. - 5.4 Bias, variance and mean squared error. - 5.5 Prior specification based on expectations. - 5.6 The normal model for non-normal data. - 5.7 Discussion and further references. - 6 Posterior approximation with the Gibbs sampler. - 6.1 A semiconjugate prior distribution. - 6.2 Discrete approximations. - 6.3 Sampling from the conditional distributions. - 6.4 Gibbs sampling. - 6.5 General properties of the Gibbs sampler. - 6.6 Introduction to MCMC diagnostics. - 6.7 Discussion and further references. - 7 The multivariate normal model. - 7.1 The multivariate normal density. - 7.2 A semiconjugate prior distribution for the mean. - 7.3 The inverse-Wishart distribution. - 7.4 Gibbs sampling of the mean and covariance. - 7.5 Missing data and imputation. - 7.6 Discussion and further references. - 8 Group comparisons and hierarchical modeling. - 8.1 Comparing two groups. - 8.2 Comparing multiple groups. - 8.2.1 Exchangeability and hierarchical models. - 8.3 The hierarchical normal model. - 8.3.1 Posterior inference. - 8.4 Example: Math scores in U.S. public schools. - 8.4.1 Prior distributions and posterior approximation. - 8.4.2 Posterior summaries and shrinkage. - 8.5 Hierarchical modeling of means and variances. - 8.5.1 Analysis of math score data. - 8.6 Discussion and further references. - 9 Linear regression. - 9.1 The linear regression model. - 9.1.1 Least squares estimation for the oxygen uptake data. - 9.2 Bayesian estimation for a regression model. - 9.2.1 A semiconjugate prior distribution. - 9.2.2 Default and weakly informative prior distributions. - 9.3 Model selection. - 9.3.1 Bayesian model comparison. - 9.3.2 Gibbs sampling and model averaging. - 9.4 Discussion and further references. - 10 Nonconjugate priors and Metropolis-Hastings algorithms. - 10.1 Generalized linear models. - 10.2 The Metropolis algorithm. - 10.3 The Metropolis algorithm for Poisson regression. - 10.4 Metropolis, Metropolis-Hastings and Gibbs. - 10.4.1 The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. - 10.4.2 Why does the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm work?. - 10.5 Combining the Metropolis and Gibbs algorithms. - 10.5.1 A regression model with correlated errors. - 10.5.2 Analysis of the ice core data. -

Note: TABLE OF CONTENTS: Preface / R. Matzke-Karasz, M. Schudack, K. Martens. - REVIEW PAPER. - Ostracod recovery in the aftermath of the Permian-Triassic crisis: Palaeozoic-Mesozoic turnover / S. Crasquin-Soleau, T. Galfetti, H. Bucher, S. Kershaw, Q. Feng. - OSTRACOD TAXONOMY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY. - The influence of El Niño 1997-98 on pelagic ostracods in the Humboldt Current Ecosystem off Peru / R. Castillo, T. Antezana, P. Ayón. - A new, interstitial species of Terrestricythere (Crustacea: Ostracoda) and its microdistribution at Orito Beach, northeastern Sea of Japan / S. F. Hiruta, S.-i. Hiruta, S. F. Mawatari. - Non-marine Ostracoda (Crustacea) of Banat district in Serbia / T. Karan-Žnidaršič, B. Petrov. - ECOLOGICAL FACTORS AFFECTING OSTRACOD DISTRIBUTION. - A year round comparative study on the population structures of pelagic Ostracoda in Admiralty Bay (Southern Ocean) / K. Blachowiak-Samolyk, M.V. Angel. - Water quality and diversity of the Recent ostracod fauna in lowland springs from Lombardy (northern Italy) / V. Pieri, C. Caserini, S. Gomarasca, K. Martens, G. Rossetti. - Factors affecting spatial and temporal distribution of Ostracoda assemblages in different macrophyte habitats of a shallow lake (Lake Fehér, Hungary) / A. Kiss. - Groundwater Ostracods from the arid Pilbara region of northwestern Australia: distribution and water chemistry / J. M. Reeves, P. De Deckker, S. A. Halse. - Ecological requirements of Ostracoda (Crustacea) in a heavily polluted shallow lake, Lake Yeniçağa (Bolu, Turkey) / O. Külköylüoğlu, M. Dügel, M. Kılıç. - Food selection in Eucypris virens (Crustacea: Ostracoda) under experimental conditions / O. Schmit, G. Rossetti, J. Vandekerkhove, F. Mezquita. - EVOLUTIONARY SIGNIFICANCE OF OSTRACOD MORPHOLOGY. - Extra-lobal and complex dimorphic features in Middle Devonian palaeocopine ostracods / G. Becker, W. K. Braun. - Evolutionary and taxonomic aspects within the species group Pseudocandona eremita (Vejdovský) (Ostracoda, Candonidae) / S. lepure, T. Namiotko, D. L. Danielopol. - On the origin of the putative furca of the Ostracoda (Crustacea) / C. Meisch. - Ultrastructure of the carapace margin in the Ostracoda (Arthropoda: Crustacea) / S. Yamada. - Ultrastructure of hepatopancreas and its possible role as a hematopoietic organ in non-marine cypridoidean ostracods (Crustacea) / R. Symonova. - OSTRACOD REPRODUCTION AND ONTOGENY. - Copulatory behaviour and sexual morphology of three Fabaeformiscandona Krstić, 1972 (Candoninae, Ostracoda, Crustacea) species from Japan, including descriptions of two new species / R. J. Smith, T. Kamiya. - Early release of eggs and embryos in a brooding ancient asexual ostracod: brood selection or a gambling strategy to increase fecundity? / R. L. Pinto, C. E. F. Rocha, K. Martens. - The ontogeny of appendages of Heterocypris salina (Brady, 1868) Ostracoda (Crustacea) / N. Kubanç, O. Özuluğ, C. Kubanç.

Note: Contents: Preface to First Edition. - Preface to Second Edition. - Preface to Third Edition. - Acknowledgments. - Part I The Periglacial Domain. - 1 Introduction. - 1.1 The Periglacial Concept. - 1.2 Disciplinary Considerations. - 1.2.1 The Growth of Geocryology. - 1.2.2 The Changing Nature of Quaternary Science. - 1.2.3 Modern Periglacial Geomorphology. - 1.3 The Growth of Periglacial Knowledge. - 1.4 The Periglacial Domain. - 1.5 The Scope of Periglacial Geomorphology. - 1.5.1 Permafrost-Related Processes and Landforms. - 1.5.2 Azonal Processes and Landforms. - 1.5.3 Paleo-Environmental Reconstruction. - 1.5.4 Applied Periglacial Geomorphology. - Advanced Reading. - Discussion Topics. - 2 Periglacial Landscapes?. - 2.1 Introduction. - 2.2 Proglacial, Paraglacial or Periglacial?. - 2.3 Unglaciated Periglacial Terrain. - 2.3.1 Beaufort Plain, Northwest Banks Island, Arctic Canada. - 2.3.2 Barn Mountains, Northern Interior Yukon Territory, Canada. - 2.4 Relict Periglacial Landscapes. - 2.4.1 Chalk Uplands, Southern England and Northern France. - 2.4.2 Pine Barrens, Southern New Jersey, Eastern USA. - 2.5 Conclusions. - Advanced Reading. - Discussion Topics. - 3 Periglacial Climates. - 3.1 Boundary Conditions. - 3.2 Periglacial Climates. - 3.2.1 High Arctic Climates. - 3.2.2 Continental Climates. - 3.2.3 Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau. - 3.2.4 Alpine Climates. - 3.2.5 Climates of Low Annual Temperature Range. - 3.2.6 Antarctica: A Special Case. - 3.3 Ground Climates. - 3.3.1 The n-Factor. - 3.3.2 The Thermal Offset. - 3.4 Periglacial Climates and the Cryosphere. - Advanced Reading. - Discussion Topics. - Part II Present-Day Periglacial Environments. - 4 Cold-Climate Weathering. - 4.1 Introduction. - 4.2 Ground Freezing. - 4.2.1 The Freezing Process. - 4.2.2 Ice Segregation. - 4.2.3 The Frozen Fringe. - 4.2.4 Frost Heave. - 4.3 Freezing and Thawing. - 4.4 The Ground-Temperature Regime. - 4.4.1 The Seasonal Regime. - 4.4.2 Short-Term Fluctuations. - 4.5 Rock (Frost?) Shattering. - 4.5.1 Frost Action and Ice Segregation. - 4.5.2 Frost Weathering Models. - 4.5.3 Insolation Weathering and Thermal Shock. - 4.5.4 Discussion and Perspective. - 4.6 Chemical Weathering. - 4.6.1 General. - 4.6.2 Solution and Karstification. - 4.6.3 Salt Weathering. - 4.7 Cryogenic Weathering. - 4.8 Cryobiological Weathering. - 4.9 Cryopedology. - 4.9.1 Cryosols. - 4.9.2 Soil Micromorphology. - Advanced Reading. - Discussion Topics. - 5 Permafrost. - 5.1 Introduction. - 5.1.1 Definition. - 5.1.2 Moisture and Ice within Permafrost. - 5.2 Thermal and Physical Properties. - 5.2.1 The Geothermal Regime. - 5.2.2 Physical Properties. - 5.2.3 Thermal Properties. - 5.3 How Does Permafrost Aggrade?. - 5.3.1 General Principles. - 5.3.2 The Illisarvik Drained-Lake Experiment. - 5.4 Distribution of Permafrost. - 5.4.1 Latitudinal Permafrost. - 5.4.2 Alpine (Mountain) Permafrost. - 5.4.3 Montane Permafrost of Central Asia and China. - 5.5 Relict Permafrost. - 5.5.1 Sub-Sea Permafrost. - 5.5.2 Relict (Terrestrial) Permafrost. - 5.6 Permafrost Hydrology. - 5.6.1 Aquifers. - 5.6.2 Hydrochemistry. - 5.6.3 Groundwater Icings. - 5.7 Permafrost and Terrain Conditions. - 5.7.1 Relief and Aspect. - 5.7.2 Rock Type. - 5.7.3 Vegetation. - 5.7.4 Snow Cover. - 5.7.5 Fire. - 5.7.6 Lakes and Surface Water Bodies. - 5.8 The Active Layer. - 5.8.1 The Transient Layer. - 5.8.2 The Stefan Equation. - 5.8.3 Active-Layer Thermal Regime. - Advanced Reading. - Discussion Topics. - 6 Surface Features of Permafrost. - 6.1 Introduction. - 6.2 Thermal-Contraction-Crack Polygons. - 6.2.1 Coefficients of Thermal Expansion and Contraction. - 6.2.2 Ice, Sand, and Soil Wedges. - 6.2.3 Development of the Polygon Net. - 6.2.4 Polygon Morphology. - 6.2.5 Controls Over Cracking. - 6.2.6 Climatic Significance. - 6.3 Organic Terrain. - 6.3.1 Palsas. - 6.3.2 Peat Plateaus. - 6.4 Rock Glaciers. - 6.4.1 Creeping Permafrost. - 6.4.2 Types and Distribution. - 6.4.3 Origin. - 6.5 Frost Mounds. - 6.5.1 Perennial-Frost Mounds. - 6.5.2 Hydraulic (Open) System Pingos. - 6.5.3 Hydrostatic (Closed) System Pingos. - 6.5.4 Other Perennial-Frost Mounds. - 6.5.5 Seasonal-Frost Mounds. - 6.5.6 Hydrolaccoliths and Other Frost-Induced Mounds. - 6.6 Active-Layer Phenomena. - 6.6.1 Bedrock Heave. - 6.6.2 Needle Ice. - 6.6.3 Cryoturbation and Frost Heave. - 6.6.4 Frost Sorting. - 6.6.5 Patterned Ground. - Advanced Reading. - Discussion Topics. - 7 Ground lce. - 7.1 Introduction. - 7.2 Classification. - 7.2.1 Pore Ice. - 7.2.2 Segregated Ice. - 7.2.3 Intrusive Ice. - 7.2.4 Vein Ice. - 7.2.5 Other Types of Ice. - 7.3 Ice Distribution. - 7.3.1 Amounts. - 7.3.2 Distribution with Depth. - 7.3.3 Ice in Bedrock. - 7.3.4 Ice in Unconsolidated Sediments. - 7.4 Cryostratigraphy and Cryolithology. - 7.4.1 Cryostructures, Cryotextures, and Cryofacies. - 7.4.2 Epigenetic and Syngenetic Cryostructures. - 7.4.3 Thaw Unconformities. - 7.4.4 Ice Crystallography. - 7.4.5 Ice Geochemistry. - 7.4.6 Cryostratigraphy and Past Environments. - 7.5 Ice Wedges. - 7.5.1 Epigenetic Wedges. - 7.5.2 Syngenetic Wedges. - 7.5.3 Anti-Syngenetic Wedges. - 7.6 Massive Ice and Massive-Icy Bodies. - 7.6.1 Nature and Extent. - 7.6.2 Intra-Sedimental Ice. - 7.6.3 Buried Glacier Ice. - 7.6.4 Other Mechanisms. - Advanced Reading. - Discussion Topics. - 8 Thermokarst. - 8.1 Introduction. - 8.2 Causes of Thermokarst. - 8.2.1 General. - 8.2.2 Specific. - 8.3 Thaw-Related Processes. - 8.3.1 Thermokarst Subsidence. - 8.3.2 Thermal Erosion. - 8.3.3 Other Processes. - 8.4 Thermokarst Sediments and Structures. - 8.4.1 Involuted Sediments. - 8.4.2 Retrogressive-Thaw-Slumps and Debris-Flow Deposits. - 8.4.3 Ice-Wedge Pseudomorphs and Composite-Wedge Casts. - 8.4.4 Ice, Silt, Sand, and Gravel Pseudomorphs. - 8.5 Ice-Wedge Thermokarst Relief. - 8.5.1 Low-Centered Polygons. - 8.5.2 High-Centered Polygons. - 8.5.3 Badland Thermokarst Relief. - 8.6 Thaw Lakes and Depressions. - 8.6.1 Morphology. - 8.6.2 Growth and Drainage. - 8.6.3 Oriented Thaw Lakes. - 8.7 Thermokarst-Affected Terrain. - 8.7.1 The Lowlands of Central and Northern Siberia. - 8.7.2 The Western North American Arctic. - 8.8 Human-Induced Thermokarst. - 8.8.1 Causes. - 8.8.2 Case Studies. - Advanced Reading. - Discussion Topics. - 9 Hillslope Processes and Slope Evolution. - 9.1 Introduction. - 9.2 Slope Morphology. - 9.2.1 The Free-Face Model. - 9.2.2 Rectilinear Debris-Mantled Slopes. - 9.2.3 Convexo-Concavo Debris-Mantled Slopes. - 9.2.4 Pediment-Like Slopes. - 9.2.5 Stepped Profiles. - 9.3 Mass Wasting. - 9.4 Slow Mass-Wasting Processes. - 9.4.1 Solifluction. - 9.4.2 Frost Creep. - 9.4.3 Gelifluction. - 9.4.4 Solifluction Deposits and Phenomena. - 9.5 Rapid Mass Wasting. - 9.5.1 Active-Layer-Detachment Slides. - 9.5.2 Debris Flows, Slushflows, and Avalanches. - 9.5.3 Rockfall. - 9.6 Slopewash. - 9.6.1 Snow-Bank Hydrology. - 9.6.2 Surface and Subsurface Wash. - 9.7 Frozen and Thawing Slopes. - 9.7.1 Permafrost Creep. - 9.7.2 Thermokarst and Thaw Consolidation. - 9.7.3 Stability of Thawing Slopes. - 9.8 Cold-Climate Slope Evolution. - 9.8.1 Cryoplanation. - 9.8.2 Slope Replacement and Richter Denudation Slopes. - 9.8.3 Rapidity of Profile Change. - 9.8.4 Summary. - Advanced Reading. - Discussion Topics. - 10 Azonal Processes and Landforms. - 10.1 Introduction. - 10.2 Fluvial Processes and Landforms. - 10.2.1 Major Rivers. - 10.2.2 Freeze-Up and Break-Up. - 10.2.3 Basin Hydrology. - 10.2.4 Sediment Flow, Surface Transport, and Denudation. - 10.2.5 Fluvio-Thermal Erosion. - 10.2.6 Channel Morphology. - 10.2.7 Valley Asymmetry. - 10.3 Eolian Processes and Sediments. - 10.3.1 Wind Abrasion. - 10.3.2 Wind Deflation. - 10.3.3 Niveo-Eolian Sediments. - 10.3.4 Loess-Like Silt. - 10.3.5 Sand Dunes and San

Note: Contents Preface Part I Anatomy of a cyclone 1 Anatomy of a cyclone 1.1 A 'typical' extra-tropical cyclone 1.2 Describing the atmosphere 1.3 Air masses and fronts 1.4 The structure of a typical extra-tropical cyclone Review questions 2 Mathematical methods in fluid dynamics 2.1 Scalars and vectors 2.2 The algebra of vectors 2.3 Scalar and vector fields 2.4 Coordinate systems on the Earth 2.5 Gradients of vectors 2.6 Line and surface integrals 2.7 Eulerian and Lagrangian frames of reference 2.8 Advection Review questions 3 Properties of fluids 3.1 Solids, liquids, and gases 3.2 Thermodynamic properties of air 3.3 Composition of the atmosphere 3.4 Static stability 3.5 The continuum hypothesis 3.6 Practical assumptions 3.7 Continuity equation Review questions 4 Fundamental forces 4.1 Newton's second law: F=ma 4.2 Body, surface, and line forces 4.3 Forces in an inertial reference frame 4.4 Forces in a rotating reference frame 4.5 The Navier-Stokes equations Review questions 5 Scale analysis 5.1 Dimensional homogeneity 5.2 Scales 5.3 Non-dimensional parameters 5.4 Scale analysis 5.5 The geostrophic approximation Review questions 6 Simple steady motion 6.1 Natural coordinate system 6.2 Balanced flow 6.3 The Boussinesq approximation 6.4 The thermal wind 6.5 Departures from balance Review questions 7 Circulation and vorticity 7.1 Circulation 7.2 Vorticity 7.3 Conservation of potential vorticity 7.4 An introduction to the vorticity equation Review questions 8 Simple wave motions 8.1 Properties of waves 8.2 Perturbation analysis 8.3 Planetary waves Review questions 9 Extra-tropical weather systems 9.1 Fronts 9.2 Frontal cyclones 9.3 Baroclinic instability Review questions Part II Atmospheric phenomena 10 Boundary layers 10.1 Turbulence 10.2 Reynolds decomposition 10.3 Generation of turbulence 10.4 Closure assumptions Review questions 11 Clouds and severe weather 11.1 Moist processes in the atmosphere 11.2 Air mass thunderstorms 11.3 Multi-cell thunderstorms 11.4 Supercell thunderstorms and tornadoes 11.5 Mesoscale convective systems Review questions 12 Tropical weather 12.1 Scales of motion 12.2 Atmospheric oscillations 12.3 Tropical cyclones Review questions 13 Mountain weather 13.1 Internal gravity waves 13.2 Flow over mountains 13.3 Downslope windstorms Review questions 14 Polar weather 14.1 Katabatic winds 14.2 Barrier winds 14.3 Polar lows Review questions 15 Epilogue: the general circulation 15.1 Fueled by the Sun 15.2 Radiative-convective equilibrium 15.3 The zonal mean circulation 15.4 The angular momentum budget 15.5 The energy cycle Appendix A - symbols Appendix Β - constants and units Bibliography Index

Note: Contents Introduction 1. Isotope hydrology: a historical perspective / P.K. Aggarwal, K. Froehlich, R. Gonfiantini, J.R. Gat ISOTOPIC AND NUCLEAR METHODOLOGIES 2. Isotopic tracers for obtaining hydrologic parameters / H. Moser, W. Rauert 3. Hydrologic process studies using radionuclides produced by cosmic rays / D.Lal 4. Stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopes / L.L. Gourcy, M. Groening, P.K. Aggarwal 5. Tritium in the hydrologic cycle / R.L. Michel 6. Assessing sources and transformations of sulphate and nitrate in the hydrosphere using isotope techniques / B. Mayer 7. Rare gases / H.H. Loosli, R. Purtschert 8. U and Th series nuclides in natural waters / A. Kaufman 9. Optical isotope ratio measurements in hydrology / E.R.Th. Kerstel, H.A.J. Meijer HYDROLOGIC PROCESSES AND SYSTEMS 10. Some classical concepts of isotope hydrology / J.R. Gat 11. Istotopes in lake studies: a historical perspective / K.Froehlich, R. Gonfiantini, K. Rozanski 12. A review of isotope applications in catchment hydrology / T. Vitvar, P.K. Aggarwal, J.J. McDonnell 13. Contribution of isotopic and nuclear tracers to study of groundwaters / W.M. Edmunds 14. Dating of young groundwater / LN. Plummer 15. Dating of old groundwater - history, potential, limits and future / M.A. Geyh 16. Geotermal systems / Y.K. Kharaka, R.H. Mariner 17. Saline waters / J. Horita HYDROLOGIC PROCESSES AND SYSTEMS 18. Isotopes in atmospheric moisture / K. Rozanski 19. How much climatic information do water isotopes contain? / G. Hoffmann, M. Cuntz, J. Jouzel, M. Werner 20. Stable isotopes through the holocene as recorded in low-latitude, high-altitude ice cores / L.G. Thompson, M.E. Davis 21. Groundwater as an archive of climatic and environmental change / W.M. Edmunds 22. Isotopic palaeolimnology / F. Gasse Appendices A. List of seminal papers on isotope hydrology (the isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen) B. List of papers presented at the 1st IAEA Symposium on Isotope Hydrology (Tokyo, 1963) C. Excerpts from report of 1st IAEA Panel on the Application of Isotope Techniques in Hydrology