ALBERT

Note: Griffiths, J. S. and Law, R. D. Introduction to SP519 – volcanic islands: from hazard assessment to risk mitigation Multidisciplinary approaches to understanding volcanic islands Della Seta, M., Esposito, C., Fiorucci, M., Marmoni, G. M., Martino, S., Sottili, G., Belviso, P., Carandente, A., de Vita, S., Marotta, E. and Peluso, R. Thermal monitoring to infer possible interactions between shallow hydrothermal system and slope-scale gravitational deformation of Mt Epomeo (Ischia Island, Italy) Marotta, E., Berrino, G., de Vita, S., Di Vito, M. and Camacho, A. G. Structural setting of the Ischia resurgent caldera (southern Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy) by integrated 3D gravity inversion and geological models Tramelli, A., Orazi, M., Nardone, L., Bobbio, A., Benincasa, A., Buonocunto, C., Capello, M., Caputo, A., Castellano, M., D’Auria, L., De Cesare, W., Di Filippo, A., Galluzzo, D., Gaudiosi, G., Giudicepietro, F., Liguoro, F., Lo Bascio, D., Martini, M., Martino, C., Peluso, R., Ricciolino, P., Scarpato, G., Torello, V. and Bianco, F. The seismic network of Ischia island from 1993 to 2021 Longo, M., Lazzaro, G., Caruso, C. G., Corbo, A., Sciré Scappuzzo, S., Italiano, F., Gattuso, A. and Romano, D. Hydro-acoustic signals from the Panarea shallow hydrothermal field: new inferences of a direct link with Stromboli Musacchio, M., Silvestri, M., Rabuffi, F., Buongiorno, M. F. and Falcone, S. Kılauea ̄ –Leilani 2018 lava flow delineation using Sentinel2 and Landsat8 images Tsunamis from volcanic environments Zaniboni, F., Pagnoni, G., Gallotti, G., Tinti, S. and Armigliato, A. Landslide-tsunamis along the flanks of Mount Epomeo, Ischia: propagation patterns and coastal hazard for the Campania Coasts, Italy Fornaciai, A., Favalli, M. and Nannipieri, L. Reconstruction of the 2002 tsunami at Stromboli using the non-hydrostatic WAVE model (NHWAVE) Volcanoes and society Lotteri, A., Speake, J., Kennedy, V., Wallenstein, N., Coutinho, R., Chester, D., Duncan, A., Dibben, C. and Ferreira, F. Changing hazard awareness over two decades: the case of Furnas, São Miguel (Azores) Tomasone, M., Avvisati, G., Cirillo, F., Colucci, O., Marotta, E., Fiorenza, E., Vertechi, E. and Simonetti, B. Risk management planning on a volcanic island: fear and loathing in Ischia (Italy) Index

Note: J. B. Dawson, D. A. Carswell, J. Hall, and K.H. Wedepohl: Introduction / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 24:vii-viii, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.024.01.01 --- R. Meissner: Twenty years of deep seismic reflection profiling in Germany—a contribution to our knowledge of the nature of the lower Variscan crust / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 24:1-10, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.024.01.02 --- D. H. Matthews: Seismic reflections from the lower crust around Britain / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 24:11-21, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.024.01.03 --- S. B. Smithson: A physical model of the lower crust from North America based on seismic reflection data / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 24:23-34, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.024.01.04 --- V. Haak and R. Hutton: Electrical resistivity in continental lower crust / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 24:35-49, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.024.01.05 --- J. Hall: The physical properties of layered rocks in deep continental crust / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 24:51-62, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.024.01.06 --- D. S. Chapman: Thermal gradients in the continental crust / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 24:63-70, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.024.01.07 --- J. F. Dewey: Diversity in the lower continental crust / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 24:71-78, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.024.01.08 --- N. J. Kusznir and R. G. Park: Continental lithosphere strength: the critical role of lower crustal deformation / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 24:79-93, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.024.01.09 --- K. Weber: Metamorphism and crustal rheology—implications for the structural development of the continental crust during prograde metamorphism / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 24:95-106, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.024.01.10 --- S. A. F. Murrell: The role of deformation, heat, and thermal processes in the formation of the lower continental crust / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 24:107-117, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.024.01.11 --- K. Fuchs: Intraplate seismicity induced by stress concentration at crustal heterogeneities—the Hohenzollern Graben, a case history / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 24:119-132, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.024.01.12 --- K. Lambeck: Crustal structure and evolution of the central Australian basins / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 24:133-145, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.024.01.13 --- R. W. Kay and S. M. Kay: Petrology and geochemistry of the lower continental crust: an overview / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 24:147-159, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.024.01.14 --- J. Touret: Fluid inclusions in rocks from the lower continental crust / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 24:161-172, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.024.01.15 --- S. R. Taylor and S.M. McLennan: The chemical composition of the Archaean crust / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 24:173-178, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.024.01.16 --- R. L. Rudnick and S. R. Taylor: Geochemical constraints on the origin of Archaean tonalitic-trondhjemitic rocks and implications for lower crustal composition / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 24:179-191, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.024.01.17 --- D. A. Carswell and S.J. Cuthbert: Eclogite facies metamorphism in the lower continental crust / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 24:193-209, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.024.01.18 --- S. Moorbath and P.N. Taylor: Geochronology and related isotope geochemistry of high-grade metamorphic rocks from the lower continental crust / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 24:211-220, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.024.01.19 --- B. F. Windley and J. Tarney: The structural evolution of the lower crust of orogenic belts, present and past / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 24:221-230, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.024.01.20 --- C. Pin and J. D. Sills: Petrogenesis of layered gabbros and ultramafic rocks from Val Sesia, the Ivrea Zone, NW Italy: trace element and isotope geochemistry / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 24:231-249, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.024.01.21 --- S. Robertson: Evolution of the late Archaean lower continental crust in southern West Greenland / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 24:251-260, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.024.01.22 --- L. Schiøtte, D. Bridgwater, K.D. Collerson, A.P. Nutman, and A.B. Ryan: Chemical and isotopic effects of late Archaean high-grade metamorphism and granite injection on early Archaean gneisses, Saglek-Hebron, northern Labrador / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 24:261-273, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.024.01.23 --- D. M. Shaw, J. J. Cramer, M. D. Higgins, and M. G. Truscott: Composition of the Canadian Precambrian shield and the continental crust of the earth / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 24:275-282, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.024.01.24 --- M. Raith and P. Raase: High grade metamorphism in the granulite belt of Finnish Lapland / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 24:283-295, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.024.01.25 --- R. C. Newton and E.C. Hansen: The South India-Sri Lanka high-grade terrain as a possible deep-crust section / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 24:297-307, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.024.01.26 --- H.-G. Stosch, G. W. Lugmair, and H.A. Seck: Geochemistry of granulite-facies lower crustal xenoliths: implications for the geological history of the lower continental crust below the Eifel, West Germany / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 24:309-317, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.024.01.27 --- H. Downes and A. Leyreloup: Granulitic xenoliths from the French Massif Central—petrology, Sr and Nd isotope systematics and model age estimates / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 24:319-330, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.024.01.28 --- J. R. Broadhurst: Mineral reactions in xenoliths from the Colorado Plateau; implications for lower crustal conditions and fluid composition / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 24:331-349, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.024.01.29 --- P. W. C. van Calsteren, N. B. W. Harris, C. J. Hawkesworth, M. A. Menzies, and N. W. Rogers: Xenoliths from southern Africa: a perspective on the lower crust / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 24:351-362, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.024.01.30 --- W. L. Griffin and S. Y. O’Reilly: The lower crust in eastern Australia: xenolith evidence / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 24:363-374, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.024.01.31

Note: Contents I Artificial Intelligence 1 Introduction 1.1 What Is AI? 1.2 The Foundations of Artificial Intelligence 1.3 The History of Artificial Intelligence 1.4 The State of the Art 1.5 Risks and Benefits of AI Summary Bibliographical and Historical Notes 2 Intelligent Agents 2.1 Agents and Environments 2.2 Good Behavior: The Concept of Rationality 2.3 The Nature of Environments 2.4 The Structure of Agents Summary Bibliographical and Historical Notes II Problem-solving 3 Solving Problems by Searching 3.1 Problem-Solving Agents 3.2 Example Problems 3.3 Search Algorithms 3.4 Uninformed Search Strategies 3.5 Informed (Heuristic) Search Strategies 3.6 Heuristic Functions Summary Bibliographical and Historical Notes 4 Search in Complex Environments 4.1 Local Search and Optimization Problems 4.2 Local Search in Continuous Spaces 4.3 Search with Nondeterministic Actions 4.4 Search in Partially Observable Environments 4.5 Online Search Agents and Unknown Environments Summary Bibliographical and Historical Notes 5 Constraint Satisfaction Problems 5.1 Defining Constraint Satisfaction Problems 5.2 Constraint Propagation: Inference in CSPs 5.3 Backtracking Search for CSPs 5.4 Local Search for CSPs 5.5 The Structure of Problems Summary Bibliographical and Historical Notes 6 Adversarial Search and Games 6.1 Game Theory 6.2 Optimal Decisions in Games 6.3 Heuristic Alpha-Beta Tree Search 6.4 Monte Carlo Tree Search 6.5 Stochastic Games 6.6 Partially Observable Games 6.7 Limitations of Game Search Algorithms Summary Bibliographical and Historical Notes III Knowledge, reasoning, and planning 7 Logical Agents 7.1 Knowledge-Based Agents 7.2 The Wumpus World 7.3 Logic 7.4 Propositional Logic: A Very Simple Logic 7.5 Propositional Theorem Proving 7.6 Effective Propositional Model Checking 7.7 Agents Based on Propositional Logic Summary Bibliographical and Historical Notes 8 First-Order Logic 8.1 Representation Revisited 8.2 Syntax and Semantics of First-Order Logic 8.3 Using First-Order Logic 8.4 Knowledge Engineering in First-Order Logic Summary Bibliographical and Historical Notes 9 Inference in First-Order Logic 9.1 Propositional vs. First-Order Inference 9.2 Unification and First-Order Inference 9.3 Forward Chaining 9.4 Backward Chaining 9.5 Resolution Summary Bibliographical and Historical Notes 10 Knowledge Representation 10.1 Ontological Engineering 10.2 Categories and Objects 10.3 Events 10.4 Mental Objects and Modal Logic 10.5 Reasoning Systems for Categories 10.6 Reasoning with Default Information Summary Bibliographical and Historical Notes 11 Automated Planning 11.1 Definition of Classical Planning 11.2 Algorithms for Classical Planning 11.3 Heuristics for Planning 11.4 Hierarchical Planning 11.5 Planning and Acting in Nondeterministic Domains 11.6 Time, Schedules, and Resources 11.7 Analysis of Planning Approaches Summary Bibliographical and Historical Notes IV Uncertain knowledge and reasoning 12 Quantifying Uncertainty 12.1 Acting under Uncertainty 12.2 Basic Probability Notation 12.3 Inference Using Full Joint Distributions 12.4 Independence 12.5 Bayes' Rule and Its Use 12.6 Naive Bayes Models 12.7 The Wumpus World Revisited Summary Bibliographical and Historical Notes 13 Probabilistic Reasoning 13.1 Representing Knowledge in an Uncertain Domain 13.2 The Semantics of Bayesian Networks 13.3 Exact Inference in Bayesian Networks 13.4 Approximate Inference for Bayesian Networks 13.5 Causal Networks Summary Bibliographical and Historical Notes 14 Probabilistic Reasoning over Time 14.1 Time and Uncertainty 14.2 Inference in Temporal Models 14.3 Hidden Markov Models 14.4 Kalman Filters 14.5 Dynamic Bayesian Networks Summary Bibliographical and Historical Notes 15 Making Simple Decisions 15.1 Combining Beliefs and Desires under Uncertainty 15.2 The Basis of Utility Theory 15.3 Utility Functions 15.4 Multiattribute Utility Functions 15.5 Decision Networks 15.6 The Value of Information 15.7 Unknown Preferences Summary Bibliographical and Historical Notes 16 Making Complex Decisions 16.1 Sequential Decision Problems 16.2 Algorithms for MDPs 16.3 Bandit Problems 16.4 Partially Observable MDPs 16.5 Algorithms for Solving POMDPs Summary Bibliographical and Historical Notes 17 Multiagent Decision Making 17.1 Properties of Multiagent Environments 17.2 Non-Cooperative Game Theory 17.3 Cooperative Game Theory 17.4 Making Collective Decisions Summary Bibliographical and Historical Notes 18 Probabilistic Programming 18.1 Relational Probability Models 18.2 Open-Universe Probability Models 18.3 Keeping Track of a Complex World 18.4 Programs as Probability Models Summary Bibliographical and Historical Notes V Machine Learning 19 Learning from Examples 19.1 Forms of Learning 19.2 Supervised Learning 19.3 Learning Decision Trees 19.4 Model Selection and Optimization 19.5 The Theory of Learning 19.6 Linear Regression and Classification 19.7 Nonparametric Models 19.8 Ensemble Learning 19.9 Developing Machine Learning Systems Summary Bibliographical and Historical Notes 20 Knowledge in Learning 20.1 A Logical Formulation of Learning 20.2 Knowledge in Learning 20.3 Explanation-Based Learning 20.4 Learning Using Relevance Information 20.5 Inductive Logic Programming Summary Bibliographical and Historical Notes 21 Learning Probabilistic Models 21.1 Statistical Learning 21.2 Learning with Complete Data 21.3 Learning with Hidden Variables: The EM Algorithm Summary Bibliographical and Historical Notes 22 Deep Learning 22.1 Simple Feedforward Networks 22.2 Computation Graphs for Deep Learning 22.3 Convolutional Networks 22.4 Learning Algorithms 22.5 Generalization 22.6 Recurrent Neural Networks 22.7 Unsupervised Learning and Transfer Learning 22.8 Applications Summary Bibliographical and Historical Notes 23 Reinforcement Learning 23.1 Learning from Rewards 23.2 Passive Reinforcement Learning 23.3 Active Reinforcement Learning 23.4 Generalization in Reinforcement Learning 23.5 Policy Search 23.6 Apprenticeship and Inverse Reinforcement Learning 23.7 Applications of Reinforcement Learning Summary Bibliographical and Historical Notes VI Communicating, perceiving, and acting 24 Natural Language Processing 24.1 Language Models 24.2 Grammar 24.3 Parsing 24.4 Augmented Grammars 24.5 Complications of Real Natural Language 24.6 Natural Language Tasks Summary Bibliographical and Historical Notes 25 Deep Learning for Natural Language Processing 25.1 Word Embeddings 25.2 Recurrent Neural Networks for NLP 25.3 Sequence-to-Sequence Models 25.4 The Transformer Architecture 25.5 Pretraining and Transfer Learning 25.6 State of the art Summary Bibliographical and Historical Notes 26 Robotics 26.1 Robots 26.2 Robot Hardware 26.3 What kind of problem is robotics solving? 26.4 Robotic Perception 26.5 Planning and Control 26.6 Planning Uncertain Movements 26.7 Reinforcement Learning in Robotics 26.8 Humans and Robots 26.9 Alternative Robotic Frameworks 26.10 Application Domains Summary Bibliographical and Historical Notes 27 Computer Vision 27.1 Introduction 27.2 Image Formation 27.3 Simple Image Features 27.4 Classifying Images 27.5 Detecting Objects 27.6 The 3D World 27.7 Using Computer Vision Summary Bibliographical and Historical Notes VII Conclusions 28 Philosophy, Ethics, and Safety of AI 28.1 The Limits of AI 28.2 Can Machines Really Think? 28.3 The Ethics of AI Summary Bibliographical and Historical Notes 29 The Future of AI 29.1 AI Components 29.2 AI Architectures A Mathematical Background A.1 Complexity Analysis and 0() Notation A.2 Vectors, Matrices, and Linear Algebra A.3 Probability Distributions Bibliographical and Historical Notes B Notes on Languages and Algorithms B. l Defining Languages with Backus-Naur Form (BNF) B.2 Describing Algorithms with Pseudocode B.3 Online Supplemental Material Bibliography Index

Note: Contents Preface Introduction 1.1 Hazard and Risk Analysis 1.2 Uses of Hazard and Risk Infonnation 1.3 Detenninistic Analysis 1.4 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis 1.5 Probabilistic Risk Analysis 1.6 Benefits of Probabilistic Analysis I. 7 Uncertainties in Probabilistic Analysis 1.8 Validation Part I Hazard Inputs 2 Seismic Source Characterization 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Earth Structure and Plate Tectonics 2.3 Faults 2.4 Earthquake Processes 2.5 Earthquake Size 2.6 Definitions of Seismic Sources 2. 7 Source Characteristics 2.8 Conceptual Development of SSMs Exercises 3 Characterization of Earthquake Rates and Rupture Scenarios 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Approaches to Determining Rupture Rates 3.3 Constraints from Seismicity Data 3.4 Geological Constraints on Activity 3.5 Magnitude-Frequency Distributions 3.6 Rupture Scenarios and Computation of Rates 3.7 Generation of Rupture Scenarios 3.8 Time-Dependent Ruptw-e Rates Exercises 4 Empirical Ground-Motion Characterization 147 4.1 Introduction 147 4.2 Engineering Characterization of Ground Motion 149 4.3 Ground-Motion Databases 161 4.4 Mathematical Representation 166 4.5 General Trends in Empirical Data and Models 170 4.6 Prediction Using Empirical GMMs 179 4.7 Epistemic Uncertainty 186 4.8 Limitations of Empirical GMMs 192 Exercises 193 5 Physics-Based Ground-Motion Characterization 196 5.1 Introduction 196 5.2 Utility of Physics-Based Ground-Motion Simulation 198 5.3 Earthquake Source Representation 200 5.4 Seismic Wave Propagation 205 5.5 Methods for Physics-Based Ground-Motion Simulation 220 5.6 Prediction Using Physics-Based GMMs 233 Exercises Part II Hazard Calculations 247 6 PSHA Calculation 249 6.1 Introduction 249 6.2 The PSHA Calculation 250 6.3 Example Calculations 255 6.4 Hazard Curve Metrics 262 6.5 Sensitivity of Hazard Results to Inputs 266 6.6 Model Uncertainty 269 6.7 Logic Trees 272 6.8 PSHA with Epistemic Uncertainty 276 6.9 Monte Carlo PSHA 279 6.10 Discussion 280 Exercises 7 PSHA Products 286 7.1 Introduction 286 7.2 Disaggregation 287 7.3 Uniform Hazard Spectrum 301 7.4 Hazard Maps 306 7.5 Conditional Spectrum 307 7.6 VectorPSHA 312 7.7 Earthquake Sequences in PSHA 312 7.8 Implementation and Documentation of Hazard Studies 316 Exercises 8 Non-Ergodic Hazard Analysis 8.1 Introduction 8.2 Fundamental Concepts 8.3 Aleatory Variability versus Epistemic Uncertainty 8.4 When Can Non-Ergodic Approaches Be Applied? 8.5 Non-Ergodic Ground-Motion Models 8.6 Non-Ergodic Site Effects 8.7 Non-Ergodic Path Effects 8.8 Non-Ergodic Source Effects 8.9 Non-Ergodic Components in Seismic-Source Models Exercises Part Ill Risk 9 Seismic Risk 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Fragility and Vulnerability Functions 9.3 Calibrating Fragility and Vulnerability Functions 9.4 Risk Metrics 9.5 PEER Framework 9.6 Epistemic Uncertainty 9.7 Risk-Targeted Ground-Motion Intensity Exercises 10 Ground-Motion Selection I 0.1 Introduction I 0.2 Principles of Hazard-Consistent Ground-Motion Selection 10.3 Target Intensity Measure Distributions I 0.4 Selection Algorithms 10.5 Assessing Accuracy and Precision of Seismic Responses 10.6 Application-Specific Decisions 10.7 Design Code and Guideline Requirements 10.8 Documentation Exercises 11 Spatially Distributed Systems 11.1 Introduction 11.2 Parameterization Using Empirical Ground-Motion Models 11.3 Parameterization Using Physics-Based Simulations 11.4 Numerical Implementation 11.5 Coherency 11.6 Risk Exercises 12 Validation 12. l Introduction 12.2 Verification and Validation 12.3 Validation from Limited Observations 12.4 Direct Validation of Seismic Hazard Curves 12.5 Validation of Model Components 12.6 Do Failures of Past Calculations [nvalidate the PSHA Methodology? 12.7 Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis for Decision-Making Exercises Appendix A Basics of Probability A. l Random Events A.2 Conditional Probability A.3 Random Variables A.4 Expectations and Moments A.5 Common Probability Distributions A.6 Random Number Generation Appendix B Basics of Statistics for Model Calibration 1 B.3 Statistical Estimation of m1,,x my,y B.5 Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Seismicity Parameters Estimation ofIM ofSymbols 433 484 486 494 514 519 523 529 533 578 viii Contents 12 Validation 12. l Introduction 12.2 Verification and Validation 12.3 Validation from Limited Observations 12.4 Direct Validation of Seismic Hazard Curves 12.5 Validation of Model Components 12.6 Do Failures of Past Calculations [nvalidate the PSHA Methodology? 12.7 Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis for Decision-Making Exercises Appendix A Basics of Probability A. l Random Events A.2 Conditional Probability A.3 Random Variables A.4 Expectations and Moments A.5 Common Probability Distributions A.6 Random Number Generation Appendix B Basics of Statistics for Model Calibration B. l Confidence Intervals for the Sample Mean and Standard Deviation B.2 Hypothesis Testing for Statistical Significance B.3 Statistical Estimation of mmax B.4 Bayesian Estimation of lnmax B.5 Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Seismicity Parameters B.6 Empirical GMM Calibration B.7 Estimation of JM Correlations from GMMs B.8 Fragility Function Fitting References List of Symbols and Abbreviations Notation Conventions Index